70th Anniversary of the FIRST Flight into a Hurricane... Invest 98L Still a Red Circle at 11PM..
First off... Invest 98L was not upgraded to a Tropical Depression despite the signature of a closed low on satellite imagery that is often used to determine such things. They wrote a short discussion about how the Tropical Surface Low has Gale Force winds ... but is lacking convection. Lord have mercy.. someone needs to be the once and future Dorian to get some rain in that moisture bubble of his...
The above image shows the wind barbs in all directions around what appears to be a closed low pressure system at the surface. Yet, the NHC upped it's chances from 60 to 70% which is a stair step process climbing the ladder. Looks good.. loses a bit, looks good again.. etc.
It's a process. The NHC makes that call so for now it's a Red Circle with a low pressure system attached that appears to be closed and there are Gale Force winds at the surface... but not a lot of rain..or not enough rain for an upgrade.
Discussion tonight in their special statement.. usually they don't say anything at 11 PM, but everyone was waiting so... they spoke. Mixed signals if you ask me personally.
"1. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAS NOT YET BEEN PERSISTENT ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AND PERSIST...THEN THE LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."
You be the judge, but warning you... the NHC gets the call.
Look at that bottom side... looks like bands forming. Yes, the north side is dry..we know that.
So, while we wait a little longer... I wanted to share a very well written and interesting piece of history from the AOML Blog about the FIRST flight into a Hurricane. Note.. it was not a "planned" flight and in my opinion would make one heck of a movie.
I'm going to post the link..as well as the article itself as nothing has been more important to our early understanding in those pre-satellite days of how hurricanes work as the work of early Hurricane Hunters.
Please read, please share and please remember it next time you hear someone say casually "They are sending in recon tomorrow" ... remember U.S. Army Air Force Lt. Col. Joseph Duckworth and his historic flight into a hurricane. I can only wonder who would play him today in the movie.
Article Below and leaving some links to read while you ignore Invest 98L and let it do it's thing. I would think it should get an upgrade to TD status or TS status, but it's not my call and he's going to have to pull himself together and impress someone at the NHC by maintaining his convection throughout the night!
Sweet Tropical Dreams
(PS..thanks Neal, you're awesome)
http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/ (a great link to save and read often!!)