Tropical Storm Dorian.. Going Strong For Now in the East Atlantic!

That is Tropical Storm Dorian..yeah I know looks like a small hurricane.. go figure..

Some quick points from the 11 AM Discussion on Dorian that are worth thinking on ...and explains why Dorian developed despite all odds. There is a theory concerning development over marginal water temperatures in this region which can be explained easily. Basically, the hot moist air from the storm itself and the flow from the equator that Dorian's long tail meets the cooler waters to the north and it SEEMS much hotter than it is.  You know how in Early FALL up north you feel really chilly when the temperatures have dropped a bit. You run for a sweater or put on leggings... it's only 65 degrees. Later in the winter you would kill for 65 degrees. Reverse that and you end up with a hot, warm storm developing over colder water. And, remember I kept pointing out the long tail that the wave was developing? It was sucking up HOTTER water into it's system keeping it warm in cooler water.

The NHC explains it below:

"THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF
WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/241431.shtml?

NHC was off on their intensity forecast for this storm. That bothers me. I knew they were playing it conservatively. But intensity affects track and timing is everything. If he can pull it together FAST befoer he htis the cooler water he has a better chance of becoming a Hurricane which until recently was not even on the menu.

The new cone is basically an extrapolation of their old cone. Further West or WNW. 

This is a BIG problem if it verifies as it takes a storm "up over the islands" which means less interaction with land. And, the High could conceivably trap it and make Landfall an inevitable event along the East Coast somewhere if the High builds in or is built in. That landfall call take place further to the south in Cuba or it could run the Florida Straits as other storms have done in years past. It could also go up the coast the way an early July Cape Verde storm did in 1996 when Bertha slammed into the borderland beaches of SC/NC before Fran slammed into them again a few months later. Note 1996 was a very wet summer prior to Bertha making a bad situation worse.  Just pointing out previous July Cape Verde storms that thumbed their nose at CLIMO.

Bertha's track is below, but understand any variation in that High can slam a storm into Florida or any part of the East Coast. It's all a matter of degrees of the orientation of it's approach.

Wind predictions are given for Puerto Rico... it's early but obviously with the pattern

set as it has been this is a no brainer to worry on.

 - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                    

Dorian is moving at a rapid clip along the South boundary of a big High pressure system being propelled rapidly towards the WNW. She is still in an intensifying mode and all bets are off as to how strong she becomes before 5 PM. There are no watches or warnings up so the advisories will be every 6 hours.

There has been discussion about what looks to be an "eye" like feature in the middle of Dorian. Some have said it's merely a "dry slot" of air that the storm ingested. Well..an eye is a dry slot. IF this storm strengthens rapidly it will affect the track, has to despite all the models being in perfect agreement.

Time will tell.. keep watching.

An awfully consistent placement there of "dry air" in the middle.. mesmerizing to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif

Will hit cooler water... how strong he is going into cooler water may tell the story.

Besos Bobbi