Something About Dorian. Please Send Him a Copy of His Obit.

All that is left of Dorian. Still firing up. Doesn't seem to know they downgraded him.

Someone needs to send him the MEMO and his OBIT.

Keeps firing up. Waves are fun to watch.. even ex-storms.

Joe Bastardi posted this on Twitter this evening. Shows Dorian alive in 84 Hours .. the NAM model. That model is good with weak storms and short term forecasts ..



This is the state of the tropics tonight which you will probably be reading on Sunday Morning.



What is left of Dorian (which keeps firing up) is headed towards the shear zone from an ULL that is blasting thru PR as if it is some sort of salvation shield protecting the islands from a storm.  Sort of like Marilyn Monroe standing over that infamous grate.. some thing's got to give.





The shear is strong and Dorian's remnants are not.

I would never ever count out the remnants of a storm that lasted this long from a small outside possibility that it finds a way to blow up. and, an ULL can make a wave.. any wave ..look like it's blowing up. But, that is far from having a closed center of circulation.

This is his official Obit from the NHC.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
REMNANTS OF DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013
 
ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT DORIAN NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THUS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT AND HAS DEGENERATED
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS STILL ABOUT 35 KT
ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS.  REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. 

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 18.9N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN
 12H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN

The tombstone that the NHC has prepared (personally I think Avila ordered it days ago)

And, this is the next storm possibly...the E storm... and oddly tonight Dorian keeps firing up better now than he did two days ago. Then again, he is hitting warmer water. He is also going to hit a wall of shear... zoom.

I'll be back tomorrow to discuss this in depth. Not much to say tonight. The CV Wave is still an African Wave and Dorian is still trying to be Dorian despite the Last Advisory.

As a survivor of Andrew....... I don't write off storms until we see the last puff of convection die out and two more storms begin...   you know... been there.

But, tonight we should be able to sleep soundly.. unless of course we live in Hialeah.

Something about a storm that doesn't want to go quietly into the night...

A good read for people on a night when nothing big is going on tropically. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

No Dorian is not even distantly related to Andrew... but there is something about Dorian that reminds me and many others from Miami of another storm that refused to pack it up and go away. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

That blow up is a wave interacting with an ULL to it's left... WNW.. probably..