Status Quo in the Atlantic and Cat 4 pushing Cat 5 Aimed at Baja

Well, if there is a Category 4 Hurricane in the Epac moving towards Baja California then it's an El Nino Year.

Hurricane Linda in 1997 was one of the most photogenic hurricanes that I ever remember and luckily did not move north into Baja.



Now, Linda was one beautiful picture of a hurricane.

This year's Category Four Hurricane Jimena can be seen in the far left corner of the top picture on this blog and the system in the Atlantic can be seen on the right side.

In the Atlantic Ocean the system that might become Erika is there, hanging in despite a lot of shear and nearby Upper Level Lows and showing off some nice green color on the funktop but she will have to sustain that over night and not just consolidate on the sats but show some significant signs of circulation for the NHC before they upgrade.



Keep watching and the BEST explanation I can give for this difficult process the wave is going through is to tell you to listen to Jim Williams at Hurricane City as he gives the BEST explanations on his free tropical updates, better than Bastardi and better than Cantore and I mean that.

Jim explains it better than anyone:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/update.htm

Jim does not have a degree in meteorology but he has more life experience and knowledge than most anyone I know and I know quite a few with Doctorate degrees... You go by who you trust, based on years of listening and learning and seeing him be right and explain why he is right. He is one of the best!

As for me.. I am watching the Country Music Awards. My brother and I often watch together but not this year. Imagine he is having a beer for me and we are talking on Facebook, the way of the world in 2009.. I remember the first time we saw Taylor Swift singing Tim McGraw and now she's one of the stars of the show. Amazing.. time flies. And, remember listening to Barbara Mandrell and Willie Nelson while I was living in L.A. and being Country and Southern is just something you take with you no matter where you go or what your key chain is (BIG GRIN, private joke) and the more things change the more they stay the same...

So, keep watching the system in the Atlantic, say a prayer for those in the way of Jimena in the Pacific and relax tonight and watch Monday Night Football or the CMAs or both...

Besos Bobbi



Summertime for a few more days, anyway...

Birth of a Storm...Consolidation in the Caribbean, Amazing Loop & Images... of soon to be Erika

Amazing loop, really the birth of a storm... slow, long loop:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cgi?REGION=atlantic&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=ir&INTERVAL
=Most_Recent&SECTOR=tropics&PATH=/atlantic/tropics/ir&button
Pressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

One word: Consolidation. Amazingly consolidating...

And, come on NHC what are we waiting for? It doesn't have to be named Erika, if this is not already a Tropical Depression what is?

As for Epac... they are sending planes into Hurricane Jimena off the coast of Mexico and it is very common in El Nino years for them to now want to go out to sea. Nothing is a given in life.

And, the track is not set in stone for Erika who is waiting to get some attention and putting on quite a show. Does she curve up into the ocean of move under a strong high that develops after the passage of this very cool, cool front or what exactly will she do?



Good loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ft.html

Ps...okay... I posted before it became a storm, big news day here... sort of glued to the computer, fires in California, Hurricane off the coast of Mexico and oh well... lot going on in the news. Going to take a shower, grab some lunch and make some wonderful expresso.. can't you smell the consolidation ;)

(name her... come on already, at least go with Tropical Depression Status..)

Tropical System NOT Know YET as ERIKA

Get used to the name. I think it will be with us for a bit.

The above is an AVN image of a storm that is being born down in the Caribbean. We have been watching it for a few days now, it is really beautiful. Has a sort of symmetry that few of the other storms this year have had. Small, round ball of dark convection at the center of the system that is moving west..west-north-west towards the islands. Rudimentary bands are beginning to form, look at the one on the top, the bottom

Here is a black and white visible loop that you can loop and watch it slowly come together. Amazing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Truly, amazing to watch a system ramp up towards being a named entity.

Unfortunately, the European model is not one of it's biggest fans and the European is considered "HOT" these days.

This is Bar Refaeli, a very hot Israeli Fashion Model who is turning up everywhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bar_Refaeli




This is the HOT European Model that the NHC prefers to be on the bandwagon. I am sure they might give her a passing glance, but being the cute techie mets they are they really are more interested in the European Weather Model...

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/ecmwf.html

Foxy Tampa shows us just what the high pressure system out there draped across the Atlantic will be doing over the next few days. NOTE... nice system coming off of Africa.

This is the Canadian Model:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009083100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The Canadian Model has this becoming a respectable tropical cyclone and moving up into the Atlantic and turning into what we call a Fish storm. I like the Canadian, personally have always found him to be a HOT model. But, well.. I am not the NHC and they like the European and they like a Tropical Model Bandwagon with all their models on board and they do like to find a center on Satellite imagery. I say, name it a Tropical Depression, send in the planes and let the great meteorological men in their flying machines psychoanalyze Erika and send us back some hard data to get some good model output.

So, my advice is to keep watching Erika or the system that should become Erika because she really has a look! She might not look as great as Bar Refaeli but she is the hottest thing I have seen in the Atlantic in a long, long time. Then again, wondering on what comes of the coast of Africa later this week.

Excellent discussion out of San Juan on their long term forecast, shows how closely they are watching Erika.

"FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH FRI IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
TRACK/EVOLUTION ON BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 50W THIS MORNING.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/RELIABLE MODEL THIS YEAR AND ALSO WITH
THIS SYSTEM TAKING IT ACROSS THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF PR/USVI OVER
THE PAST FOUR DAYS AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. NOGAPS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WHILE GFS/UKMET DO NOT. PER NHC
TWO PRODUCT...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE FIRST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER
THE ECLIPSE SHOW THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER. GIVEN THAT WE ARE ALMOST AT THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE
SEASON AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FVRBL CONDITIONS I WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST A NAMED STORM AND NHC IS GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM."

Wide Open View to show you the perspective of where that beautiful ball of convection is exactly:



The Pacific storms are exciting to watch but it's all about location and perspective. From the Caribbean's perspective this is something that needs to be watched. For good Carib info www.stormcarib.com is the best as always.

This is the Hurricane Season, we are moving into September, the peak of the season and this is Erika's time. Not sure if she will last all the negative influences out there with a cold front swooping down through the Carolinas and Upper Level Lows out there turning but this is her time, her chance to take the runaway and strut her stuff. Let's see what she's got inside those bands and inside that developing Center of Circulation...




Course, if you would rather watch Bar Refaeli... enjoy. Bet if the guys at the NHC saw her they wouldn't have to wait for the European to climb on board!!!




Besos Bobbi ;)

I'll be back when Erika has a name....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

RED ALERT.... Erika Forming??

Erika may be forming in the Atlantic from a westbound, tropical wave...

Wanted to post quick now and will update later as events unfold.

Leaving you with a cute video, my 15 year old son loves it. Course he is 15 and when I was 15 we were learning "Happy Talk" in Choir.. okay, maybe I was 14 and listening to other silly songs. But, enjoy...

As for me... don't want sunshine, want Erika..is that too much to ask?

I was always a One Life to Live girl...

Besos Bobbi

NHC Pulls Dannys Track Back West - Orange Alert for Erika/Wave

Just enough west to possibly impact both Capes in it's path North.

Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod.

My first thought is...are they going to cancel, postpone or change the funeral proceedings for Ted Kennedy or just do them in driving rain. I'm sorry, I am a Florida girl and for years I could not hear the name "Cape Cod" without thinking the Kennedy family and thoughts like that. I know they lived in West Palm Beach, I've been by there, seen it but still they were people from up in Cape Cod. That ..and that great movie "The Russians Are Coming!!' wasn't that Cape Cod?

Short on time or I'd surf online.

Most of the weather in Danny is way to the NE of it's ill defined center so truthfully this won't be much of a weather event but seems the NHC is not that sure and not into gambling so they have put up a watch for the area so... keep watching.

Further west...and south...and west...is a beautiful little wave that is compact, put together and finding's it center. It's name should be Erika.




And, in some incredible soap opera of Biblical proportions because Danny didn't develop into a big strong hurricane he sort of sacrificed himself for Erika, as the aftermath of Danny will not rip of the Atlantic and the high just might stay stronger and they may have to change their cone for Erika as Danny's weakness only makes Erika stronger. What a biblical ballet, a soap opera of meteorological proportions, don't you just love it??

Got to go... see ya later when Danny has moved a bit further along in it's track and the alerts from the NHC have been raised color wise from orange to red for Erika

Besos Bobbi

Danny Track Further East, has barely moved.. Invest off of Africa

Okay, going to write a longer post when I have more time and Danny has had time to pull his act together. There has been much discussion that he has great possibilities, if only and we are waiting for the "if only" today...

His naked swirl (as we call it in the business..is tracking west/wnw however his convection is Irene like following the track of the NHC and blowing off and relocating along the track set out for it. Possibly it can pull its convection and center of circulation in the same direction.. and head north and then out to sea... cause right now his convection..is turning and walking away, got to pull it together Danny, youse a mess...

Good new!! Newest track saves Cape Cod from a Weekend Landfall..

And, in the far Atlantic is a beautiful, little wave and a nicer, bigger wave behind it getting ready to grab the E name for this year... Erika... is calling in the Atlantic Wind.. all the way from Africa.



She is small but she has a center and looks beautiful, at least for now.. before she possibly goes poof tomorrow..

Keep watchin'

And...see you all later.

Danny...well Danny needs a good reason it seems to get moving... give it one reason to take it's path out to sea and get this season on with a real storm. Sorry Danny, but ummmm you're way too much a lost cause today..

Besos Bobbi
(ps..trying reverse psychology, how am i doing??)




(if this doens't do it... going to send Danny to Rehab....)

Danny, Kafka & Freud..

Note: Remember the center is NOT the bright area of convection but that little invisible area that it seems to be reaching out to...

So, this has to be one of the most confusing storms I have ever seen. I mean seriously. And, I have seen a lot. Then again, rarely have I seen the NHC write so honestly in a discussion on not understanding the models. I can only believe they are waiting to see if:

1. Danny reforms under the stronger convection which is far removed from the center..

2. They have to make a decision to continue with models that have been good this year vs what seemingly makes no sense.

3. Change the track based on what?

I would not want to be on the 5 AM Advisory Team at the NHC... this is not an easy one.

Tonight's 11 PM Discussion... a bit that I am showing... showing low confidence in the model forecasts...

"ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DANNY...BUT IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHY THEY MAKE THE CYCLONE SO STRONG. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 40 KT...AND MUCH MORE...ONCE DANNY ACCELERATES TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS MYSTERIOUSLY SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO 70-75 KT ONCE THE SHEAR INCREASES. "

On one hand, models take it and ram it into New England (still) ... Cape Cod is ground zero in the middle of the model tonight.



This particular model is flavored Rocky Road because I think it's going to be messy if it verifies and messy if it doesn't.

Danny reminds me of the story Metamorphosis, I am not a Kafka fan but something existentialist about this seems an out of body, experience. Do we blindly follow the models, do we have faith in them? Is Danny able to transform or is this all his life is??




By the time this is over ... we could all use a good tropical therapist..

Am sure there is some Freudian Message in this all...

Boston has a funeral planned for Senator Kennedy on Saturday? Do they read the forecast? Or do they have some measure of faith I can't seem to muster?

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/08/kennedy_to_be_b.html

Take a raincoat... or two...

Red Sox have a home game on Saturday, Toronto I believe. They might want to play it in Toronto.. or Texas? Well, at least they won't be playing Yankees ..

I'm going to bed. I will wake up and hopefully Danny will have surprised us and read his discussion ... maybe he can explain to us why he looks so bad but he gets so strong later.

I want to go out on a limb and say... he really does not resemble a normal tropical storm and think he is some sort of hybrid and should be treated as such. Winds are strong far from the center, over a large area... big blow ups currently to the NE of his center... just looks to me like a Hybrid but acts Tropical.

Maybe he will change into whatever it is the models see and his life will have more meaning than what it seems right now.

We are talking Saturday Evening in New England. I don't even know what I am making for lunch on Saturday.. its a few days away.

I have heard people say it's dead..I don't think so. Looks healthy to me. Reminds me of that silly cow scene in Me, Myself and Irene... just when you turn your back .. "Mooooooooooooooooooooo"

Good Night Danny... Sweet Metamorphosis Dreams!!

Bobbi

Ps..on another weather note... there are bad fires in a beautiful area outside LA and I lived there and yes, I remember those fires... prayers for everyone affected by them, they can be haunting forever.

And...I love Boston, by the way... always have...

Danny moving slowly... many possibilities, NY still in the Cone

Quick update on Danny, he is problematic and there are several possible scenarios but the end game is the same. He ends up going out to sea after possibly tracking across Long Island and New England... or the tip of Long Island, or maybe he will just stay off the coast.

He is moving a bit slower than expected and has a problem in that his convection is MIA and the steering currents are a bit fuzzy for now but he should (it seems) at some point take off like a bat out of hell and make a hard right turn to the north.

Let's hope so.

Out by Africa (can't you hear the drums...) there is a new Tropical Wave catching the eye of trackers everywhere. Small wave, strong SAL (African dust..achoo) and not the best conditions but models do develop it and one behind it that has not come off yet.



The NHC Discussion at 5PM did discuss the problems that I mentioned. A bit from the 5PM:

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND IT MAY TAKE 24 HR OR MORE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF
THE STORM FAVORS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST."

BEVEN's Discussion, not mine...same issues we are all looking at but now we have the final word.

That's it.. keep watching. Short on time, long on looping and have to go to a meeting somewhere. Perhaps by 11 Danny will have turned over a new leaf and we will see him following the plan.

Take care... Bobbi

Danny, A Troubled Tropical Storm With Lots of Questions

I'm sorry but this storm has more problems with it than Danny Bonaduce had a while back and I don't see it singing Danny Boy in Boston just so fast. Hopefully, this storm will find his voice and he will follow the models. Because when you have a storm that does not follow the models, problems follow.

I have heard it said that he does not have a good vertical stack and his center is tilted and messy and that is possible. Not sure but possible. I do know his convection is being blown off by the messy atmospheric conditions around it and if that is the case he is going to stay weak. Let me say this again, he is going to stay W E A K.

IF he stays W E A K he is not going to race towards a date with destiny in the Northeast. If that is the case..where will he go? Unless he goes away which I don't really see happening either.

These are MY thoughts not to be confused with the brilliant brains at the NHC who do this for a living and who have degrees from great schools like Colorado and FSU and etc..LSU maybe... all of those great weather schools with great football teams.

My thoughts, my questions.

Here is a visible loop of Tropical Storm Danny:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Next...here is an image.



Danny is still moving west or between west and wnw and his convection is going in the opposite direction. He's got some dynamically challenging problems there..

Next...high pressure is pushing west to east across the Carolinas and it is really pushing. Everything to the north of that is going west to east... Everything south of that line is dawdling along the way you would expect down in the Deep South. The Low over La/Ms is not going anywhere fast, a Low near Iowa is slowly pushing west... and energy from that is being pulled back as if it is on a leash and wrapping into Texas/La and its connected Upper Level Low.

And, the ULL that gave Danny so many problems is like a monkey on it's back or rather down below as it is moving SW down in the Bahamas near Florida and it does not seem to want to let Danny go in this sordid messy meteorological battle for Danny's heart and soul.

When a heart and soul are not working together or the mind is off somewhere else, it's hard to get anywhere. Danny is not getting anywhere.

He might... but I don't see how he gets up to North Carolina by Saturday and Boston by Sunday and well..he might want to skip Boston seeing as how the Red Sox are not playing well :(

So... a shallow Danny will not do what the models predicted a stronger Danny would do.

Capeche??

There is trouble and its not in River City but inside Danny's head or his center.

So, waiting to see what the NHC says at 5 and how the next few models play out. It could sit down there and get stuck a bit and then when it moves, make a more dramatic move and a sharper turn but if I didn't know what the models were showing I would think it wasn't going anywhere fast. Obviously, the models and the men that read them see something different from what I see or am obsessing about.

So, stay tuned... watch the loops and as always watch the NHC as if there are questions, they will answer them beautifully in the 5pm Discussion.

Some people would like to kill Danny off.. think that's premature or call it a sub-tropical and go with a different series of models.

And, there is a YELLOW BOX by Africa :)

And... keep watching the drama in the Pacific as a storm takes aim at destinations north. I do see his convection being pulled off to the north but not his center which just keeps rolling along..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I'll be back later, after dinner..after the 5pm, after I have something worth while to say.

My suggestion??

Listen to this great video while watching the Water Vapor Loop...flows nicely!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html



Besos Bobbi... be back later with more info... stay tuned, everyone stay tuned!!
Seems a lot closer to Florida than it did earlier... weird..

Danny Forms In the Atlantic, NC & VA in 3 Day Cone ...NY & NE in 5 Day

I said 3 Day Cone... for NC/VA and the whole Mid-Atlantic Coast and NE is in play for 5 day.

More later after some good discussion from the NHC..so far...it is official!

TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

This could really be a big threat for loss of life, dollar amount... flooding, this is the real thing. Things could change... it could curve out to sea but the NHC is VERY VERY good with their 5 day forecast and even better with the 3 day.

NHC Issues Statement, Recon Goes Back In to Find Danny... Developing...

Yes, today is D Day. Wednesday. Danny Day!! A few days back the models said Wednesday was the day and indeed it is and if this becomes Danny in a few hours I will be a big believer in the models this year. Not talking about the track but model's predicting development from murky, messy systems like this. And, really am tired of discussing possible tracks for an unnamed wannabe storm that will be called Danny, probably later today. IF it doesn't form now.. don't see it doing it.

But, I see it ..on visible. See above... not much convection wrapped but you can see it. And, now I am a believer :) Singing Monkees this morning... I'm in love, I'm a believer!!

Okay seriously, 1966 was a very big year in my life. I was young, very young.. living over in the most wonderful, crummy little neighborhood in the world called "Bird Road" lol and walking to Junior High past the driving range and picking up golf balls and getting snacks at Dixie Ranger or waiting for the guys to go over and get snacks at Dixie Ranger. Old Miami... Khoury League Baseball games, watching the boys play and tracking hurricanes. But, boy was that an annoying year for Miami and storms. Alma went that way... Inez went that way the other way, then back and we barely got a breeze. Not sure if we even got off school! And, Faith was a fish and swam out to sea. After the golden years of 64 and 65 that brought us Cleo and Betsy we got stood up by hurricanes...and we tracked and listened to Amos and Andy on the Radio doing their weather shtick and the Miami News had the best hurricane map in town, free in the newspaper. Fun year, made good friends... friends I am still friends with today, go friggin figure. And, we sat in drama and sang stupid songs from the Monkees in spite of knowing how silly and stupid it all was, they were our Beatles... we were just that age... love the Monkees still. Some things never change...

So, the NHC is going back in one more time and we are waiting for breaking news from the NHC so until it comes... I will go with this post and leave you this song and tell you this is as good as I have seen it look since we began looking.

Track? Somewhere up the coast.. which coast, not sure and could be a fish like Faith.

Another interesting heads up is to watch the Pacific, because a storm might be forming there that might move dangerously close to San Diego which if it does watch Steve Lyons wax poetic on that one! They don't hit Southern California and no that is another song I am not singing but could move that way and they are having record heat so it is possibly an interesting storm to watch in the Pacific.

But, back to the Atlantic...

Stay tuned.... Love was out to get me, that's the way it seemed...disappointment haunted all my dreams (Alma, Inez)... then I saw his face... now I'm a believer, not a trace of doubt in my mind...

Loop the Loop and see Danny winking!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Keep the Faith!
Besos Bobbi ;)

Ps.. if this does not pan out I am going out today and getting really drunk on some good Irish Ale like Guinness or Red Murphey Whatever you call it...

Recon Going Into the Red Box NE of PR... stay tuned for more info

The Hurricane Center is sending in the plane to the tropical disturbance that is NE of PR later today. A Red Flag Warning is up for possible development. Red circle means greater than 50% not "any minute it gets a name" and keep that in mind.

Let's put it this way, how much money would you put into your local state lotto if you were told that you have a greater than 50% chance of winning? Generally, the NHC does not upgrade to red box without something getting a designation but not always.

As for this particular little piggy... it is riding in tandem with an upper level low. Not sure if the Low is pulling the cart or the Low is carrying the disturbance piggy back but we will find out for sure soon. This happens often in the tropics and as Stephanie Abrams pointed out.. it is in a similar place that Bill was and has a similar track according to several models but the big difference is I am pointing out .. Bill had a strong low pressure system attached all the way from Africa whereas Danny (if this gets a name) does not and he is riding under the radar maybe... lone ranger style, maybe he is there ..maybe not.

A wave moving in tandem with an upper level low is like that smart kid who has a great potential and bad friends... never sure which is going to win out and how much the bad friends is going to affect him and stop him from achieving his goals. Sometimes, those friends actually help him and spur him on to greatness. It's a dangerous mix and a balance needs to be kept and some distance from the friend (Upper Level Low) would help him get his act together.. maybe. Hope that helped.

Really need one day to see if I am related to Stephanie Abrams. Possible. Heard her say she hated shopping and would be very happy to stay home and watch football. Hmmmnnn football, weather, hates shopping.. maybe we are related!!

So... let's see what the NHC finds out and then we will know if we have Danny or just a disturbed tropical wave in love with an upper level low...

As for me.. unpacking, relaxing and paying some bills and doing some writing.. lots of ING words today... a day for action and to stay on track.

My thoughts on beaches up here that could be within reach of the next possible tropical disturbance..



Wilmington/Wrightsville Beach
http://www.visitwrightsville.com/about-wrightsville/photos.html
video online: http://www.visitwrightsville.com/about-wrightsville/video.html

I like Wrightsville, it's an eclectic mix of beach homes... Southern, Key West sort of houses... beach houses on the water and a beautiful South Carolina looking sound with sailboats and back roads and bike paths... and a beautiful beach filled with surfers and shells and friendly people. Have never been disappointed here.. Wilmington has hanging moss, oh my heart...

Ocean Isle Beach.. as I said, a great get away from noise and a quieter beach. Soft sand, quiet... laid back, pretty, serene and south facing beach. A lot of shells, interesting shells.. possible more this week because of Bill's passage north. If you want a quiet beach, this is it.. or Sunset down the road. Serene, pristine.. beautiful place to get away to..

http://www.oibgov.com/

Myrtle Beach..
Oh, what can I say... loved it. Very Florida and very Carolina.. beautiful old Southern homes that look a lot like Florida Southern vs Virgina Southern ... less brick and more white columns and landscaped lawns and I saw hibiscus and Oleander and Palms... the beach is a bit blue/green whereas Wilmington to me is always dark blue. Fun, fun in the sun... beachy, Margaritaville, Victoria Secrets and an Israeli Restaurant where I had a Sampler Platter and Shwarma. Very nice Chabad in Myrtle Beach, successful, busy, welcoming and friendly and blocks from the ocean... plan on going back for a Shabbos sometime soon! Myrtle Beach.. Walked around after lunch (had nana tea, wow..) and walked around Broadway At the Beach and then went swimming. Like going to DisneyWorld but it has the beach and without the stupid mouse!!! Nuff Said..

http://www.margaritavillemyrtlebeach.com/

http://www.broadwayatthebeach.com/

And, we went swimming to the north of the hotels, in a beautiful residential area that made me feel like I was almost home in Coral Gables but it had a beach and some rise in elevation..and dunes.. oh yes, I love Myrtle Beach!

So... that's my take on what I have seen of these beaches... again they are not my beaches, my beaches are in the Keys... more sitting beaches, watching thunderstorms form out of the Gulf or watching the sunrise at the end of Duval Street but each beach has it's own unique beauty.

Hoping some Hurricane Danny down the road does not destroy any of my beaches anytime soon...

More later.. enjoy the pics....

http://www.margaritavillemyrtlebeach.com/
Besos Bobbi ;)

Margaritaville... Myrtle Beach :)




THE Beach...


They have the most amazing visitor's center, not just Jewish things but info on Myrtle Beach and local living guides, beautiful center they have there. Inspiring..
http://www.chabadmb.com/




wow... beautiful...

Possible Tropical Development...

Rhymes...

Seriously, back from the beach and looping loops and thinking on the possibilities.

Very possible that this will somehow pull itself together from a messy beginning (wave caught up interacting with an upper level low) and ride up the Eastern Seaboard...or out to sea. We'll see.

Stay tuned and just giving an heads up here... at the Harbor.

Back from the beaches of the beautiful Carolinas, especially South Carolina though I really have come to love Wrightsville Beach. Either way, took a long bath, washed my hair twice and conditioned it twice and think maybe the sand is out now... and I have youtube tunes dancing in my head. Along with the sound of the surf.

Surf was wild ... calmer today. Very hot. Imagine we are not done with coastal cruisers just yet. Cold fronts and hurricanes sometimes go hand in hand it seems... all depends on timing, like everything else in life.

Back in time to track and will see what it looks like tomorrow.

By the way... great wave rolled off of Africa the other day, I like it.

Song from Tom on the message board... music to watch waves by...

Here's a loop ... give it a try...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html




Nite... Sweet tropical dreams.. Bobbi

Ps.. not my favorite Herb Alpert tune but a good one to watch waves by... busy, like the tropics ... 17 years since Hurricane Andrew...

Possible Tropical Development in Atlantic/Yellow Box Up & @OIB

Visible on Yellow Circle...



and the ever popular water vapor...


Hi there, short on words and long on pictures today.

At OIB and watching the sunrise by the ocean, waves, foam and starfish oh my..

Very beautiful place, give a real heads up to anyone out there who wants to take a nice vacation in a sweet place on the beach with beautiful views of both the ocean and the sound. Southerly Beach so can see sunrise and set, but not directly over the water... nice, very nice....

http://www.islanderinn.com/

And, as for the tropics... there is a possibility of tropical formation later in the week (late tuesday/wednesday) of the D storm. Maybe. A little murky right now as it is very close to an upper level low. Models are all over the place as usual before something even forms while in fantasy land. One model takes it into a Bill2 storm and rams it into Long Island and New England, one a bit further out to sea and one keeps it a fish storm. Take your pic..door #1, #2 or #3!! And, again..this is not a done deal and just something to watch while watching news on the devastating fires in Greece or reading up on the aftermath of Bill up in Newfoundland where there was flooding or thinking on buying some hurricane supplies to keep in the house just in case a hurricane makes it to your part of the world this fall. I'm worried on South Florida in October, early October maybe.. not sure, fronts.. Indian Summer, a storm in the Carib... maybe will see.

Above pic is the visible and water vapor... will see, still far out to sea and early!

Runs 3, 2 and 1..







Either way... am going to see the beach today and breathe sea air before heading back inland.

Some nice pics of the beach at sunrise...







Besos Bobbi

http://www.margaritavillemyrtlebeach.com/templates/default/images/header_restaurant.jpg

I'd post a song but not sure Jimmy has one about the Carolinas except for Prince of Tides and I couldn't find it online ... well sometimes you got to be different...

At Wrightsville Beach for the Day, Catching Up With Bill

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So, after a wonderful day at the beach in Wrightsville I finally got to my computer and saw the story on the "rouge wave" that hit Maine. Sadly, it seems a child died after 20 people were pulled into the water by the wave. I'm surprised that Thunder Hole stayed open after the high surf advisories.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=278670&ac=PHnws

At Wrightsville, the storm has passed now but the waves were still strong and the lifeguards were extremely proactive in not letting people go far from the shore or near the pier.

Imagine the waves must have been amazing on Long Island today. Why anyone would take small children to the beach when a hurricane is that close I don't know. I have taken kids but not to the water line, far up on the boardwalk or near the street to feel the wind, hear the noise... but not "in" the area where the waves are that strong. Don't know the details, sad.. very sad and needless tragedy. My friend Sharon, who is from Maine, was worried on the surf and a closer call with Bill.

I'm amazed that Bill maintained Hurricane Strength all the way up the coast .. amazing.

Spending the night down near Sunset Beach, south facing beach and the waves were stronger, more steady and pounding than earlier at Wrightsville which is further up the coast. Could barely go out, sat in the water, got pounded, was like heaven but the storm is far away.. would not have done this yesterday, yesterday was for watching from a safe distance.

Watching a Red Sox game on TV and catching up with news, photos... such a pull in the water, before waves hit the pull back out was so strong the water temperature itself felt different.

Beautiful area, very beautiful. Strange seeing that much sea foam being blown up onto the beach...



That's it... watching sandpipers this afternoon.. can watch sandpipers forever... think this might have been a baby pelican but close enough :)

I'm like a sandpiper, I can spend my whole life at the edge of the shore.. in and out of the water, fast... constantly moving, restlessly running back and forth... at the edge of the water, the land... the sea... the waves... what a way to live, always admired the little sandpiper...


sweet dreams my friends... thank you,

Bobbi

(now if you could get the Red Sox winning again...)

Bill is Still a Hurricane...Weekend Update on the Tropics and Life

As for Bill, I think the National Hurricane Center says it best in their 8am Advisory:

...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...

The rest of the info is below on this link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/231157.shtml

Another great picture I want to share with you this morning is the Funktop version or what I call Funky Bill Finds Newfoundland!



Look at that long tail from Bill that reaches all the way down into the warm tropical waters and is caught up in an Upper Level Low that looks like the Anti-Bill it is so big like Bill is..

And, Bill is STILL a Hurricane and that is amazing and very different from most hurricanes that have already crossed over into the realm of extra tropical, elongated strange shaped storms. Bill traveled more miles than most Cape Verde Waves will ever travel and he really did it in style. Spared our shores, our cities and cruised along kicking up the surf and staying well within line of the National Hurricane Center's excellent forecasting as if he was following their travel ideas and took their advice.

Bottom line.. we lucked out.

Bottom, bottom line.. not all storms are so kind and we don't always luck out.

As for me, personally I am going to the beach today if all goes as planned. Part of my plan in this going between South Florida and North Carolina life I have right now. Want to feel the sand under my toes, look for shells, watch the sunset and rise and feel the air in my face. Would have gone yesterday to enjoy the breakers from Bill but I keep the Jewish Sabbath and that is my priority and I'll go another time to see breakers.

And, yesterday when leaving Temple to go to a friend's house I stood by the road and looked across the field of a big high school and watched the now infamous frontal boundary that pushed Bill out to sea come swooping down and take up the whole breath of the sky with clouds that I have not seen in weeks since I was last in Miami. Low, tropical clouds with hooks and updrafts visible and trailing cloud debris and colors dark and beautiful. We walked over to our friend's house for lunch and took a chance that we would get caught in the rainstorm and did... but it was beautiful and as close to being in some part of Bill as I could get. Downdrafts and wind rushing by and clouds racing overhead, you could see the punch of the front as it moved sort of NE over us... stopped under a MASSIVE Magnolia tree..two of them that join together and have big thick leaves, the rain came down and watched the raindrops sparkling and dancing in the parking lot nearby, was awesome, magical... beautiful. Romantic too. We stayed like that for a while and then took a run for it when I heard thunder, am too smart to stand under a tree with thunder somewhere nearby. Got soaked, dried off at a friend's house whose mother was visiting from L.A. and one of my oldest closest friends when I lived out on that coast another life time ago. Felt like kids playing in the rain and it continued to rain for a few hours until the front moved on.

Was great... great to see old friends, great to stand under a Magnolia Tree in the middle of all that meteorological drama and know Bill was cruising along, safely off shore, the forecast verifying and yes score one for the NHC and one for Bobbi because it was a great, magical weather moment!

On another note... Raleigh has a pretty little downtown with a great little restaurant called Mecca, old fashioned and wonderful, sit down..have a coffee or a soda (or lunch) and take it all in.. which I did while I compiled some notes for a story. No refills but I did not need refills, I needed some local color and inspiration. Pictures another time. And, to process the reality that downtown Raleigh does not have a Victoria Secrets nor a bookstore. We got to work on this guys... I asked the girl at the register in the CVS if they had a Walgreen's and she thought and said "no..." and so I asked her how bout a bookstore and she thought and said, "No....." and then I said, "so you have like no little cute stores to walk around and shop for stuff???" and she said... after much thought, "we have a pawn shop!!!!"

Help... I told her yes, I saw that... looked like such an old fashioned pawn shop... caught my attention...

Nice people, nice place but come on guys...got to have a Victoria Secrets or a bookstore to come into the 21st Century!! Museum's are awesome.

And, when I get back to Miami the first thing I am doing is going to my favorite Victoria Secrets in Bayside... both of them!! They have one for clothes and one for scents and well ... walk around the sailboats and watch them bob about in the tropical breeze.

But, for now...standing under a Magnolia tree with my guy and watching the rain come down and dance in the puddles made an absolutely perfect Saturday.. and watching Bill, still a hurricane slide past the coastal communities that could have been seriously ravaged and destroyed is a good meteorological moment of madness..

Love it...

As for what's next? Hmnnnn don't know. A wave off Africa fighting shear, some talk on local home grown brew near Florida (hmmmn don't know) and Bobbi is going to the Beach!!

Oh...and the Miami Dolphins WON last night and I got to see them on TV because they played Carolina, how good is that??

Have a great weekend... Bobbi
Peace out ;) to quote an old friend!

Bill, Bermuda, British Isles and Barbra

1..Hurricane Bill is swirling away out in the open Atlantic and going through some minor adjustments of his own. He's got some dry air perhaps (always did) and looks a bit like he is being sheared apart but that is an illusion. Can't go by each new image that comes in, it's like running after the first pretty girl that walks by. Then again, if you don't run after her someone else will and then you'll be singing sad songs not happy ones so... take the long view is what I am saying here. Bill is in it for the long haul. He is a long tracker.

Did you know when I was little and oh so smart I had this theory on hurricanes. I thought they formed over by Africa and then they came here (Miami) and then they went up north (anywhere north of Jacksonville) and then they circled over across the Atlantic (because I knew they crossed the Atlantic) and then somewhere they got hung up over Europe I guess.. perhaps a nice cup of cafe something in Paris or lingered too long under the Eiffel Tower, rained on Spain where it always rained and then when it was late Summer the same storm appeared again off the coast of Africa. Really, I believed that until someone told me (probably my ever cheerful mother) "They DIE over ENGLAND!!!!" which probably explains why I never really ever wanted to travel to England ever. But, it made sense to me that Donna wasn't really gone but just out to lunch on the Left Bank perhaps, waiting for the Hurricane Season to come back.

Memories... of the storms of my childhood that I can barely recall on the edge of my memory. But I never forgot Donna, because she was the first... first early memories of trees down and palm fronds dropping and furniture tossed about and rearranged in people's yards that they did not take in and no school!! Which was sort of sad cause I missed the cute little boys in the class, especially the one that liked to put the sunshine up on the teacher's board. Somethings never change...



But, every new storm is not the last one and that is a lesson taught to me by someone I love and who has been a great friend, each storm is different not the last one nor the first one. Each storm is beautiful in it's own right!

But, a Cape Verde Storm is a storm to remember when it makes its way across the Atlantic and dies in England or rains on France and Spain and maybe even gets up into the mountains of Andorra lol. Oy... Well the rain ain't going to Oklahoma or California now is it??

So... want to make a few tropical points today and they are...

2.. Bermuda is today as beautiful as it was when Winslow Homer painted pictures of the coast and every time I see Jim Cantore standing there I realize how timeless his pictures are..if you don't believe me check it out for yourself!



http://www.metmuseum.org/toah/hd/homr/ho_10.228.10.htm

3.. British Isles are very far north and I don't think most people realize how far north. They hear about Halifax and think "oh way up there" but they don't realize that London and most of the British Isles is WAY UP THERE TOO! England and Scotland are NOT just to the east of New York City but far to the north of most of the our North American Cities.

Go back up to the top of the blog, go on... look at that map. Oh my goodness, London is cold and damp for a reason and is only not a frigid Artic city because of the Gulf Stream..that keeps tropical energy moving around the planet even bringing once tropical storms to it's rocky shore. Isn't Geography amazing and isn't our brain amazing how it plays games with us if we don't constantly review the facts and just assume and go on automatic.

Telling you one thing ..the Hurricane Hunters are not going on automatic they have a plan, a flight plan, a plan of the day..and so should we I think.


4.. Barbra can really sing her heart out and she has a voice that is magical. I don't listen to her that much, but when I do I am always blown away that anyone can sing like that.



Going off for a while, the 11 AM will come out and I will read the discussion and I will watch him spin and I will wonder on the next storm and how different his track and form may be. And, I will smile... because even though the sun is not out and there are bees the size of flying yellow and black rats here... somewhere the wind is blowing and a sailboat is turning silently into the breeze ...and a weather guy is flying into Bill sending down great pictures, datas and loops.





Gotta smile..or I wouldn't be Bobbi now would I??

Nice songs but all different, like all hurricanes..different..and all youtube videos are different and trying to figure out why the below video ends up with Hebrew subtitles over Nick Nolte's magical voice...


That's all for now... think we have covered it all.. Bill, Bermuda, British Isles and Barbara...

Besos Bobbi

Great Jimmy Buffett song called Prince of Tides from Barometer Soup, one of the greatest LPs he ever made..

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/images/B000002OWD/ref=dp_image_0?ie=UTF8&n=5174&s=music

How's that for a chatty muse today, happy????

Hurricane Bill Steady on Track, Avoids Direct Hit on Bermuda

Cone is above, Bill is below:



Bill is moving to the NW about as steady as it gets. A few wobbles here and there as he goes through eye wall replacement cycles. It is important to view the track and average out the bumps. Once in a while it looks like its wobbling west or north, you have to smooth it out..


The whole Northeast from North Carolina up through New England is going to have strong weather over the next few days as the cold front that is supposed to move east on it's way towards a date with Bill. A lot of energy in that trough.

As always it's a wait and see how close they meet, where he curves, how close he gets. So far, so good. So far he misses a direct hit on Bermuda and he misses the U.S. and just splits the up rights and dances fast up the Gulf Stream.

For NOW.... we are only looking at a possibility of Tropical Storm Force Winds in Bermuda and they have missed a severe bullet if that forecast verifies. A good sign is that Jim Cantore is in Bermuda and you know the old joke...where ever Jim goes the storm doesn't.

My concern again is the distance Bill is going to travel between Saturday 2 PM and Sunday 2 PM. Any variation in track or forecast could happen fast and people need to pay attention to their local media.

If it starts raining from the trough... do not panic. But ... if your local media weather people start to warn you that he could get closer, weather could be bad...believe them. Stay in touch. Plan your weekend, make it a good one but keep in touch with news and weather sources and with any luck he will swing by Cape Cod and look like the meteorological version of the International Space Station. Happy Viewing!!

If it rains later this weekend as that frontal boundary moves east and you are upset that it's messing up your date to jog or play tennis, be happy. That front is going to carry away Bill...

Rain is good. Rain is a blessing.

Course last night there was a massive storm in NY and trees fell down, hundreds of them in what might have been a possible twister but most likely some strong straight line winds.


http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/104317/city-cleans-up-after-overnight-storms/Default.aspx

I saw a big tree fall over today, just wham... no wind, no nothing... a tree that was no longer alive I guess and chose that moment to fall..t i m b e r!
No one was hurt, but in seconds.. it was on the ground. Why I don't know but if I had not been outside watering the roses I would not have seen it..or believed it..though I would surely have heard it... BAMN!!!

Watched it rain this afternoon, water flowed down the drainage ditch behind the house that is my flowing water and I smiled.

Rain is a blessing. Enjoy the rain and know it could have been a lot worse. One day a storm will kick back into the Mid-Atlantic or New England and it will happen fast and it will be mess... like Hazel or Donna.

As for Canada...they may have to deal with a fast moving Bill...

Enjoy the view of Bill from the space station.. incredible when you think on it what he looks like from Heaven, from space.... we look down at him with satellite imagery, this is what it looks like from space. Amazing. Such power and glory and awe..



In nature ... we can sometimes touch a greater power and beauty than we can while standing in line for a movie.

Besos Bobbi... and will update later.

Models Debate Cat 3 Bill, New England Pay Attention

Chart above is from Accuweather showing the most recent GFS run. They don't make these things up but they have to be weighed against other models and forecasts.

The models seem to be talking this morning and offering various solutions. Most of the tropical models agree, however there are some differences of opinion and if they continue people in the New England and surrounding areas should really pay closer attention to Bill. In general the models agree and have for a long time but to see one pull off suddenly makes you go "hmmmnnnn" and wait for the next model run to see if the GFS disagrees again.

The problem here is the GFS has suddenly brought Bill much closer to Cape Cod than previously shown. And, even the NHC in it's 5am discussion opened the door to a possible more leftward track. Mind you I did not say that it slammed Bill INTO the Cape but closer...

"THE GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BRINGING THE CENTER OF
BILL JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MUCH
SHARPER EASTWARD TURN...KEEPING THE CENTER WELL AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES
AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BILL WILL
PROBABLY NOT TURN AS SHARPLY BETWEEN 72-96 HR AS IMPLIED BY THE
TRACK GRAPHIC...AND THUS IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN THE GRAPHIC WOULD SUGGEST."

Why am I concerned? Well, aside from having a few friends who love Cape Cod and love to wax poetic about Marthas Vineyard... storms at that latitude can move very fast and any change in the forecasted track extrapolated over time can make a big difference and when a storm is moving that fast it is hard to swing into "let's see, should I buy twinkies or can food" or have a deep discussion on Landshark or Blue Moon" I mean seriously speaking here the 1938 Hurricane rushed in at a forward speed of over 40 mph and I have seen reports way higher and it makes it hard to prepare or to expect the unexpected when a storm is traveling that fast. The further north you go the faster the storms move especially when they are transitioning into extratropical or merging with a frontal boundary. Hurricanes do funny things that are not so funny at high latitudes when they are still intact and not loosing their punch.

Let's hope Bill loses his punch.

Mind you..again..big bold letters.. I AM NOT SAYING BILL IS GOING TO CHANGE DIRECTIONS AND HIT NEW ENGLAND OR THE ATLANTIC COAST...I am saying storms have and wrinkles in tracks suddenly appear and put a kink in the best laid tracks. So, any variance by a good model like the GFS makes one pay attention and stop watching him spin and to review history. Because, those who do not learn from history will be forced to repeat it..and that would be a shame in today's modern world. We think people know a storm is out there and to keep their guard up but a few boaters lost their life in Andrew because they were promised on Friday Afternoon a good weekend and that Andrew was Carolina bound.

Speaking of the Carolinas.. if the Cicadas do not shut up I am going to lose it.

Anyway, back to Bill and the 1938 Storm.

Here are some amazing links and a quote from one in particular about the 1938 storm explaining it's forward speed of 70 mph, not wind speed..forward speed.. something rarely seen and hopefully we won't see again.

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/weather_history_38.html

"Instead of recurving out to sea, the storm moved due north and accelerated in forward speed to 70 mph. In the history of hurricanes, this is the fastest known forward speed recorded. The incredible forward speed of the storm caused wind speeds on the eastern side of the hurricane to be extremely fast. Because hurricane winds rotate counter-clockwise, the winds to the east of the eye are moving from south to north. Because the hurricane was also moving in the same direction, the forward speed added to the already powerful winds. Eastern Long Island and New England would later be hit with wind speeds that exceeded 180 mph!"

Official page:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/hurricane/hurricane1938.shtml

Great page at www.hurricanecity.com

More info:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/hurricane38/maps/index.html

A short note on the problem with models. They are like trying to fall in love with someone analytically. It just really doesn't work. It works as long as you are in the same mind set and don't change your mental priorities. If our parameters for making decisions remain the same, it works. When someone loves passionately, from the heart and soul... that never changes. Even when you aren't together for some reason you love with all your heart, it is emotional, it is real.. it doesn't change it's course. It is a river like the Mississippi, wide with many wiggles and curves and it's always rolling and you just can't rely on models totally. You CAN rely on the National Hurricane Center to figure out their spaghetti charts and short term variations (like the GFS hopefully is short term) but.... you cannot let your guard down because this far south a storm is progged to roll along and miss you and slam into Nova Scotia. It's like that Governor who loves the South American woman, he tells himself he is not going to talk to her, write her.. analytically it makes sense but his heart tells him something else. Such is the way of the world. We are all like that and sometimes we make adjustments in our behavior but in the end what is inside wins out... inside the heart and soul.

Loving a Cape Verde Storm is like loving a person.. it has so many options, a destination that most can guess at early on, it has a beginning and an end and a whole life in between. It is there for days... weeks... moving, spinning, rolling along.. Because a model burps after a heavy dinner of beany chili does not mean it is going to suddenly hit Boston on Sunday..but just because they say one thing on Thursday does not mean they will say the same thing on Friday and if Bill is zooming along at 40mph it's good to get his end track down pat. And, speaking of the Pats.. if you are a Pats fan or a Red Sox fan...you might want to keep your eye on Bill. Yes, there are times in my life I would like to have seen Rhode Island take a direct hit but not today, not really... would like to see Bill keep rolling along out to sea.

Canadian Hurricane Centre is watching him closely as should be people in New England because anyone who remembers the 1938 storm or has heard tales of it knows that things can change fast up that way. As for me... I will go with the NHC but am listening to others as well.



Short on time this morning, going out.. the 11 AM will be out soon and this can all be updated later... but my thoughts today are from the heart so they will not change. Have to give Showboat credit, a really great musical.. American's first real musical and still one of the best.

Thanks, Besos Bobbi

Ps...this is the map I use and go by the most, as well as www.skeetobite.com when a storm gets closer. As for Raleigh, what kind of city does not have a bookstore or a Victoria Secrets downtown? Seriously???