Tropical System NOT Know YET as ERIKA

Get used to the name. I think it will be with us for a bit.

The above is an AVN image of a storm that is being born down in the Caribbean. We have been watching it for a few days now, it is really beautiful. Has a sort of symmetry that few of the other storms this year have had. Small, round ball of dark convection at the center of the system that is moving west..west-north-west towards the islands. Rudimentary bands are beginning to form, look at the one on the top, the bottom

Here is a black and white visible loop that you can loop and watch it slowly come together. Amazing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Truly, amazing to watch a system ramp up towards being a named entity.

Unfortunately, the European model is not one of it's biggest fans and the European is considered "HOT" these days.

This is Bar Refaeli, a very hot Israeli Fashion Model who is turning up everywhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bar_Refaeli




This is the HOT European Model that the NHC prefers to be on the bandwagon. I am sure they might give her a passing glance, but being the cute techie mets they are they really are more interested in the European Weather Model...

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/ecmwf.html

Foxy Tampa shows us just what the high pressure system out there draped across the Atlantic will be doing over the next few days. NOTE... nice system coming off of Africa.

This is the Canadian Model:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009083100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The Canadian Model has this becoming a respectable tropical cyclone and moving up into the Atlantic and turning into what we call a Fish storm. I like the Canadian, personally have always found him to be a HOT model. But, well.. I am not the NHC and they like the European and they like a Tropical Model Bandwagon with all their models on board and they do like to find a center on Satellite imagery. I say, name it a Tropical Depression, send in the planes and let the great meteorological men in their flying machines psychoanalyze Erika and send us back some hard data to get some good model output.

So, my advice is to keep watching Erika or the system that should become Erika because she really has a look! She might not look as great as Bar Refaeli but she is the hottest thing I have seen in the Atlantic in a long, long time. Then again, wondering on what comes of the coast of Africa later this week.

Excellent discussion out of San Juan on their long term forecast, shows how closely they are watching Erika.

"FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH FRI IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
TRACK/EVOLUTION ON BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 50W THIS MORNING.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/RELIABLE MODEL THIS YEAR AND ALSO WITH
THIS SYSTEM TAKING IT ACROSS THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF PR/USVI OVER
THE PAST FOUR DAYS AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. NOGAPS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WHILE GFS/UKMET DO NOT. PER NHC
TWO PRODUCT...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE FIRST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER
THE ECLIPSE SHOW THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER. GIVEN THAT WE ARE ALMOST AT THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE
SEASON AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FVRBL CONDITIONS I WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST A NAMED STORM AND NHC IS GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM."

Wide Open View to show you the perspective of where that beautiful ball of convection is exactly:



The Pacific storms are exciting to watch but it's all about location and perspective. From the Caribbean's perspective this is something that needs to be watched. For good Carib info www.stormcarib.com is the best as always.

This is the Hurricane Season, we are moving into September, the peak of the season and this is Erika's time. Not sure if she will last all the negative influences out there with a cold front swooping down through the Carolinas and Upper Level Lows out there turning but this is her time, her chance to take the runaway and strut her stuff. Let's see what she's got inside those bands and inside that developing Center of Circulation...




Course, if you would rather watch Bar Refaeli... enjoy. Bet if the guys at the NHC saw her they wouldn't have to wait for the European to climb on board!!!




Besos Bobbi ;)

I'll be back when Erika has a name....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html