Danny, A Troubled Tropical Storm With Lots of Questions

I'm sorry but this storm has more problems with it than Danny Bonaduce had a while back and I don't see it singing Danny Boy in Boston just so fast. Hopefully, this storm will find his voice and he will follow the models. Because when you have a storm that does not follow the models, problems follow.

I have heard it said that he does not have a good vertical stack and his center is tilted and messy and that is possible. Not sure but possible. I do know his convection is being blown off by the messy atmospheric conditions around it and if that is the case he is going to stay weak. Let me say this again, he is going to stay W E A K.

IF he stays W E A K he is not going to race towards a date with destiny in the Northeast. If that is the case..where will he go? Unless he goes away which I don't really see happening either.

These are MY thoughts not to be confused with the brilliant brains at the NHC who do this for a living and who have degrees from great schools like Colorado and FSU and etc..LSU maybe... all of those great weather schools with great football teams.

My thoughts, my questions.

Here is a visible loop of Tropical Storm Danny:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Next...here is an image.



Danny is still moving west or between west and wnw and his convection is going in the opposite direction. He's got some dynamically challenging problems there..

Next...high pressure is pushing west to east across the Carolinas and it is really pushing. Everything to the north of that is going west to east... Everything south of that line is dawdling along the way you would expect down in the Deep South. The Low over La/Ms is not going anywhere fast, a Low near Iowa is slowly pushing west... and energy from that is being pulled back as if it is on a leash and wrapping into Texas/La and its connected Upper Level Low.

And, the ULL that gave Danny so many problems is like a monkey on it's back or rather down below as it is moving SW down in the Bahamas near Florida and it does not seem to want to let Danny go in this sordid messy meteorological battle for Danny's heart and soul.

When a heart and soul are not working together or the mind is off somewhere else, it's hard to get anywhere. Danny is not getting anywhere.

He might... but I don't see how he gets up to North Carolina by Saturday and Boston by Sunday and well..he might want to skip Boston seeing as how the Red Sox are not playing well :(

So... a shallow Danny will not do what the models predicted a stronger Danny would do.

Capeche??

There is trouble and its not in River City but inside Danny's head or his center.

So, waiting to see what the NHC says at 5 and how the next few models play out. It could sit down there and get stuck a bit and then when it moves, make a more dramatic move and a sharper turn but if I didn't know what the models were showing I would think it wasn't going anywhere fast. Obviously, the models and the men that read them see something different from what I see or am obsessing about.

So, stay tuned... watch the loops and as always watch the NHC as if there are questions, they will answer them beautifully in the 5pm Discussion.

Some people would like to kill Danny off.. think that's premature or call it a sub-tropical and go with a different series of models.

And, there is a YELLOW BOX by Africa :)

And... keep watching the drama in the Pacific as a storm takes aim at destinations north. I do see his convection being pulled off to the north but not his center which just keeps rolling along..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I'll be back later, after dinner..after the 5pm, after I have something worth while to say.

My suggestion??

Listen to this great video while watching the Water Vapor Loop...flows nicely!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html



Besos Bobbi... be back later with more info... stay tuned, everyone stay tuned!!
Seems a lot closer to Florida than it did earlier... weird..