Models Debate Cat 3 Bill, New England Pay Attention

Chart above is from Accuweather showing the most recent GFS run. They don't make these things up but they have to be weighed against other models and forecasts.

The models seem to be talking this morning and offering various solutions. Most of the tropical models agree, however there are some differences of opinion and if they continue people in the New England and surrounding areas should really pay closer attention to Bill. In general the models agree and have for a long time but to see one pull off suddenly makes you go "hmmmnnnn" and wait for the next model run to see if the GFS disagrees again.

The problem here is the GFS has suddenly brought Bill much closer to Cape Cod than previously shown. And, even the NHC in it's 5am discussion opened the door to a possible more leftward track. Mind you I did not say that it slammed Bill INTO the Cape but closer...

"THE GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BRINGING THE CENTER OF
BILL JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MUCH
SHARPER EASTWARD TURN...KEEPING THE CENTER WELL AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES
AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BILL WILL
PROBABLY NOT TURN AS SHARPLY BETWEEN 72-96 HR AS IMPLIED BY THE
TRACK GRAPHIC...AND THUS IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN THE GRAPHIC WOULD SUGGEST."

Why am I concerned? Well, aside from having a few friends who love Cape Cod and love to wax poetic about Marthas Vineyard... storms at that latitude can move very fast and any change in the forecasted track extrapolated over time can make a big difference and when a storm is moving that fast it is hard to swing into "let's see, should I buy twinkies or can food" or have a deep discussion on Landshark or Blue Moon" I mean seriously speaking here the 1938 Hurricane rushed in at a forward speed of over 40 mph and I have seen reports way higher and it makes it hard to prepare or to expect the unexpected when a storm is traveling that fast. The further north you go the faster the storms move especially when they are transitioning into extratropical or merging with a frontal boundary. Hurricanes do funny things that are not so funny at high latitudes when they are still intact and not loosing their punch.

Let's hope Bill loses his punch.

Mind you..again..big bold letters.. I AM NOT SAYING BILL IS GOING TO CHANGE DIRECTIONS AND HIT NEW ENGLAND OR THE ATLANTIC COAST...I am saying storms have and wrinkles in tracks suddenly appear and put a kink in the best laid tracks. So, any variance by a good model like the GFS makes one pay attention and stop watching him spin and to review history. Because, those who do not learn from history will be forced to repeat it..and that would be a shame in today's modern world. We think people know a storm is out there and to keep their guard up but a few boaters lost their life in Andrew because they were promised on Friday Afternoon a good weekend and that Andrew was Carolina bound.

Speaking of the Carolinas.. if the Cicadas do not shut up I am going to lose it.

Anyway, back to Bill and the 1938 Storm.

Here are some amazing links and a quote from one in particular about the 1938 storm explaining it's forward speed of 70 mph, not wind speed..forward speed.. something rarely seen and hopefully we won't see again.

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/weather_history_38.html

"Instead of recurving out to sea, the storm moved due north and accelerated in forward speed to 70 mph. In the history of hurricanes, this is the fastest known forward speed recorded. The incredible forward speed of the storm caused wind speeds on the eastern side of the hurricane to be extremely fast. Because hurricane winds rotate counter-clockwise, the winds to the east of the eye are moving from south to north. Because the hurricane was also moving in the same direction, the forward speed added to the already powerful winds. Eastern Long Island and New England would later be hit with wind speeds that exceeded 180 mph!"

Official page:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/hurricane/hurricane1938.shtml

Great page at www.hurricanecity.com

More info:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/hurricane38/maps/index.html

A short note on the problem with models. They are like trying to fall in love with someone analytically. It just really doesn't work. It works as long as you are in the same mind set and don't change your mental priorities. If our parameters for making decisions remain the same, it works. When someone loves passionately, from the heart and soul... that never changes. Even when you aren't together for some reason you love with all your heart, it is emotional, it is real.. it doesn't change it's course. It is a river like the Mississippi, wide with many wiggles and curves and it's always rolling and you just can't rely on models totally. You CAN rely on the National Hurricane Center to figure out their spaghetti charts and short term variations (like the GFS hopefully is short term) but.... you cannot let your guard down because this far south a storm is progged to roll along and miss you and slam into Nova Scotia. It's like that Governor who loves the South American woman, he tells himself he is not going to talk to her, write her.. analytically it makes sense but his heart tells him something else. Such is the way of the world. We are all like that and sometimes we make adjustments in our behavior but in the end what is inside wins out... inside the heart and soul.

Loving a Cape Verde Storm is like loving a person.. it has so many options, a destination that most can guess at early on, it has a beginning and an end and a whole life in between. It is there for days... weeks... moving, spinning, rolling along.. Because a model burps after a heavy dinner of beany chili does not mean it is going to suddenly hit Boston on Sunday..but just because they say one thing on Thursday does not mean they will say the same thing on Friday and if Bill is zooming along at 40mph it's good to get his end track down pat. And, speaking of the Pats.. if you are a Pats fan or a Red Sox fan...you might want to keep your eye on Bill. Yes, there are times in my life I would like to have seen Rhode Island take a direct hit but not today, not really... would like to see Bill keep rolling along out to sea.

Canadian Hurricane Centre is watching him closely as should be people in New England because anyone who remembers the 1938 storm or has heard tales of it knows that things can change fast up that way. As for me... I will go with the NHC but am listening to others as well.



Short on time this morning, going out.. the 11 AM will be out soon and this can all be updated later... but my thoughts today are from the heart so they will not change. Have to give Showboat credit, a really great musical.. American's first real musical and still one of the best.

Thanks, Besos Bobbi

Ps...this is the map I use and go by the most, as well as www.skeetobite.com when a storm gets closer. As for Raleigh, what kind of city does not have a bookstore or a Victoria Secrets downtown? Seriously???