Ana is Born, Bill is Born... Will Ana live? Will Claudette Form in the Gulf of Mexico... Developing...

Tropical Storm Ana, born 5am on Saturday, August 15th, 2009
Tropical Storm Bill, born 5pm on Saturday, August 15th, 2009

Hard to type let alone think here, a plethora of information here and so much to say and yet... it's still a waiting sort of time.

Amazing day with two storms forming out in the Atlantic and a good friend of mine had a baby in Miami, a boy who would stay at my house off and on when he was in trouble (which was often) and would move in with my kids. And, now and he and his beautiful friend have this beautiful little baby girl named Celeste and oh wow... hope and pray that Mommy and baby do fine and can't believe he is a father, so cool. Amazing...

That is what life is about... you're born, you die and you live in between... same for babies, same for storms... same for all of us whether we are tree frogs or iguanas or writers. And, you never stop trying to make sense of it all.

Tonight in the Gulf of Mexico, Eastern Gulf of Mexico there is possible storm forming and if it doesn't it would be TD4 and Claudette. If... if they can find a solid circulation center and if pressures continue to drop and bands of rain continue to form and IF.. IF.. the models like it, if they really like it. I spoke on this earlier in the week... it's been a possibility. Again, the tropical wave that cruised through the Caribbean is now off the west coast of Florida after dumping huge amounts of rain in the Florida Keys and across South Florida and is now flirting with that area of convection that was parked off of the West coast of Florida and as I said... something might be developing close in, a wild card of sorts.

As for my girl Ana...she looks really pitiful tonight. Maybe I am biased. Okay, I am very biased, I like her spunk and would like to see Ana make it. In general, Ana storms usually are weak and that is why that name stays around forever it seems on our lists. Maybe Ana is a kind soul, doesn't want to hurt anyone..who knows? I am not Hurricane Shrink. Went five rounds with mine tonight and my head is fairly well shredded (giggling) and I am woozy from watching loops... not easy being Lois but someone's gotta do it.

So...

My main point here is the the future of both storms is intricately tied in with the other. IF the conditions are so bad that Ana cannot survive, the same conditions will eat away at the very large Bill who has more meat on his bones but will in time not live up to the big expectations many have for him. IF Ana hangs in there and maintains her westward movement but barely manages to get her winds up past 45mph..she will end up further south than expected and they will keep dragging that cone graphic to the left (south..) and it won't end up in the Gulf...

IF.... she were to strengthen and even her die hard loyal fan here cannot see that happening..she would stay north of the islands and be stronger. IF that were to happen (hey it's a theory) then she could affect Bill's track a bit...

Bill could affect a lot of people further down the road... and that road is wide open to possibilities. Could affect the Carib but more likely the East Coast somewhere will get a real thrill out of Bill.

Ana is not looking good tonight and my blackberry pearl flip is chirping like a cricket, cannot figure out why.

I don't wake up with Al but I will talk tomorrow to my best friend in Miami who is very negative and not even happy about being in the Cone. My son called me right after Shabbos to tell me the news that the Schwartz house in Miami was alive with the sound of "IN THE CONE" and watching Ana and Bill.

Will see... but do have to admit Bill is big, amazing to watch and and looking better. He has some green funk going on tonight, some strong bursts up and down, big bottom band bringing in moisture from the deep tropics.



He just has to find himself, he has to ... pull it together so Avila or whoever is on duty at 5 will upgrade him a bit. Maybe he needs a shrink? Or a good burp. You know, my Grandma Mary was a big believer in having some Pepsi Cola so well.. you know...

See Bill is a BIG storm... a big cruiser and it is a classic cruiser... a classic Cape Verde Cruiser... that can cruise across the whole warm, tropical Atlantic and be a famous storm... that goes down in history... or it could go out to sea.

This is how I see Bill... BIG... Old Fashioned... a real clunker...



Anyways...

What I do find interesting is that IF the models would hold... Ana would end up where the disturbed area of weather that is in the Eastern Gulf. Not saying Ana will make it and not saying the area in the Gulf will form...and talking on the reality that there is a pattern and unless the high out in the Atlantic does break up a bit (and might happen..) anything forming will follow that same age old path...

Connect the dots... Ana would end up where the mess in the Gulf is...




A lot of Ifs...as always.

A quick study of the 11pm update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami on the campus of Florida International University:

Reads a bit like a romance novel... doesn't it?

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ANA HAS BEEN PULSATING AND AFTER
AN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
EXPOSED AGAIN. THIS MEANS ANNA IS NOT STRENGTHENING AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.

Rather nice discussion from Avila who was generous and kept Ana "alive" and well that would be the prudent thing to do as she has not disappointed yet. Yes, she is small. She is not BIG BILL, no siree.. But she has a compact, tight circulation that when exposed... shows you how tight and has traveled across the Atlantic in some of the most negative conditions any storm has had and has maintained so I really think she deserves some respect.

Course it is hard to take your eyes off of Bill out there, big, wound up and finally crankin yet something still bothers me about Bill.

Perhaps Avila said it best when he went into shrink mode and wrote that discussion, sort of reads like the Carl Jung of tropical forecasting..

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT BILL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER

What can you say... Ana's got a core and can't find convection, Bill's got plenty of convection and can't find a core. OH THE DRAMA..........

Relevant Data between the two..salient point.

Ana:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.4N 51.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 14.7N 54.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 15.5N 57.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.5N 61.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 73.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0000Z 22.5N 78.9W 35 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 83.6W 40 KT



Bill:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 11.3N 36.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 11.2N 38.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 12.0N 41.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 12.8N 44.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 47.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 52.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 58.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 64.0W 95 KT


Bill gets strong, Ana never is forecast to be strong.
Ana is at 22/78 and Bill is much further east when he is flirting with 22..

Different tracks... even though they started out at the same place and by the way...another system is coming off the coast of Africa hoping to the C name and steal it from the mess in the Gulf..

Bill could be that big East Coast storm that Joe Bastardi at Accuweather was ranting about however it could just as easily slide past Cape Hatteras and out to sea depending on frontal boundaries and weather conditions later in the week. It could be a BIG Fish storm or it could be one of those storms that goes in around the Carolinas and cruises up I95 in some big old fashioned car like some big 1954 Plymouth

Just remember, it's not over in tropical forecasting until it's over. Just because we expect Ana to follow the last tropical wave into the Gulf, across Haiti and the DR and part of Cuba ending up west of the Keys on the 5th Day this is not a Bible but a forecast. She could stay weak, battle her way west and stay to the south.. a storm in 1970 named Dorothy did just that and was always a continually weak, westward moving storm and yet it was considered the most deadly of a busy season. Odd, but true and mostly forgotten. That is my job here..to remind you of history and the forgotten to open your minds up to the possibilities in life as well as tropical tracking.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Dorothy_(1970)

I am NOT saying she will stay this far south but they do keep pulling the track south and if she barely stayed alive and kept moving this would be more plausible then moving that far north. Just a random thought and a reminder that there are small, forgotten storms that do much damage and should be remembered.

A bit hard to watch in a way as I was really going to post another one but I'm in a funky, silly mood..whimsical and like the set... a lot.




Okay...she really gets more life there ;)
Before there was Scarlett there was Showboat... have it on a Tape here somewhere ...
Great musical..



Sweet Dreams... Bobbi
will see in the morning if Ana survived or if Claudette is born in the Gulf..
Seriously....Ava made a much hotter Julie LaVerne!!

And, remember..I am Twitter...if you can find me ...and maybe explain why my blackberry is chirping like a North Carolina cricket :(