A Day Of Watching and Waiting....

Which is truly what most of the hurricane season is as the totals for hurricane days is way lower than the number of days from June through November.

Tropical Depression #2 is not really doing well, and yet she is doing a whole lot better than I thought she would be doing last night when I went to bed. There has been convection closer to the center but it keeps getting blown off to the west which pretty much explains well why she has not lived up to her earlier model forecasts. The NHC stayed with her this morning, the question is whether it was enough to keep her on the maps at five..



There is a big, massive tropical wave that rolled off Africa looking like it might do something but despite maintaining some convection it just doesn't seem to have a real organized circulation. As Jim Williams at Hurricane City in a post on the message board, it may take a while to start cranking. I'm a little negative on it but am listening to Jim's words on this one, large systems take longer to spin up into something rather than small systems, then again sometimes big ones have more of a chance of going the distance. Size does matter, sometimes! So, going to not be totally negative and just watch it... as I am watching TD 2 in a battle for her life.

Ironically, the models that loved her now no longer love her but then again seems the models need some help there as they have been BADLY READING the current synoptics and are not taking into account the strength of the shear, the SAL and the various El Nino associated issues such as Walker Cells. Personally, I never underestimate a Walker Cell. But, the models have not handled cyclone genesis well this past month so not sure how much we should listen to them right now. On the other hand, this is the guy that brought you to the dance and generally it is best to go home with the guy that brought you, right? So... keep watching those waves dancing out in the big blue ocean and eventually one of them will develop and get a name.

As for a matter closer in.. I think it's prudent to pay attention to the wave in the Carib that has turned all colors today and is traveling in a nice neat ball and grabs your eye away from the Twin Twisted Sister Waves... I don't see any signs yet of vorticity but if something starts to spin close in... pay close attention because the models had been calling for a storm in the gulf several days ago and this could be the storm maker they were talking about.



Imagine it's possible that if TD 2 maintains itself that moisture from the larger storm might get entrained inside TD 2 or vice versa, maybe the second wave now an Invest on the Navy site could find a heart on it's trip down the yellow brick road.

Keep watching... and waiting... and we will see what they say at the NHC at 5pm!

Some loops for your looping pleasure:

loop:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Will be back this evening when we know what tune TD 2 is singing or if we need a funeral chant..

Besos Bobbi