No Upgrade and WHY..... Cause I think TD 2 looks very sad

Sort of like she lost her best friend, can't explain it but this is the worst I have seen her all day... calling her "her" under the theory she will get a name once she gets past 55 but... really not sure SAL and EL Nino don't win this one. IF they do it should be really paid attention to so that everyone can stop going crazy over the wave behind her because I really do believe she looked like she had a better circulation than that one and she is having problems keeping convection.

Why???

Let me show a few images, because in this era of loops, sometimes just looking at an image helps you stop, breathe and think.



The above is our weak tropical depression. There are no strong colors and there are stronger areas of convection in the Caribbean and off the coast of the Carolinas with a possible tornado near Jacksonville Beach.

See big pic:




See there is barely any red color in her at all... I find that hard to believe there are tropical storm force winds there no matter what other data they have and it is possible it had it but it lost if it did.

Now, look at the Water Vapor Loop:

She is like an asthmatic child standing outside on a polluted day, gasping for air or in her case...gasping for moisture. Hurricanes are WET moisture filled areas with high winds... she needs moisture and she is like a car running on fumes. She can't get past the dry air until about 55 and that area of dry air is moving west with the storm. How this gets going I don't know.. unless she continues to crawl along westward until she gets to warmer water and more moisture. And, stop pointing to the big red people eater behind her because that will fall victim to the same set up... cough - cough, wheeze - wheeze... soon enough.

Personally I am a tracker. I have been known to chase storms a bit too. I study them, I love them. But, you can't just wish a storm to form and at the moment it is what it is, it is a depression and it is struggling right now.

So..that is why there is no upgrade according to Bobbi.

Here is the Water Vapor Image, which to me really tells the story.

Notice the dark dry area just to the west of TD 2..notice it has even reached a small arm underneath her and is beginning to cut her off from any possible moisture. That is almost a death knell for a system though this system has been tenacious as hell and I think if any can this one will but because the convection you see in the orange blob is not directly under her center of low pressure she is a bit tipsy and she just does not look good.



She looked better this morning, she looked better earlier this afternoon. She MIGHT look better this evening but for now it was a GOOD CALL not to upgrade, not yet, no reason to rush and by tomorrow morning we will know whether she survived the battle with SAL and the Big Bad El Nino of 2009!


Please notice wording in the very excellently written discussion by the National Hurricane Center at 5. I have put the parts in bold that really tell the story.


The depression appeared to be on the verge of becoming a tropical
storm a few hours ago...with satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt
from TAFB and SAB. However...since about 18z the convection has
decreased significantly and has moved farther away from the exposed
low-level center. Based on this...the cyclone will remain a 30 kt
depression for this advisory. The current downward trend in the
convection may be due to an increase in easterly vertical wind
shear...and to a dry slot wrapping around the circulation noted in
AMSR-E vapor imagery near 1534z. Also...as seen earlier...most of
the low-level inflow into the depression seems to be coming from
the north...representing possibly more stable air passing over
cooler waters. The flow on the south side of the depression is
feeding into a large disturbance between the Cape Verde Islands and
Africa.

The initial motion is 265/12. The depression is on the south
side of a large low/mid-level ridge...and the large-scale models
forecast this to continue for the next two days or so. After that
time...the models forecast a weakness in the ridge that would steer
the cyclone west-northwestward. The track model guidance generally
agrees with this scenario...and while the model clusters seen
earlier have merged there is still a significant spread by 120 hr.
The GFS and UKMET are on the south side of the guidance envelope
showing a more westerly motion...while the HWRF and BAMD are on the
north side showing a northwestward motion by 120 hr. Overall...the
guidance envelope has again shifted a little southward...and so has
the new official forecast. The new track is in the center of the
guidance envelope in best agreement with the tvcn and tvcc
consensus models.

The depression remains over sea surface temperatures near 27c...with
SSTs along the forecast track increasing to 28c after 72 hr. The
large-scale models forecast the depression to encounter moderate
vertical wind shear during the forecast period...first from the
east and later from the southwest. Also...water vapor imagery
shows very dry air at the mid/upper-levels to the northwest of the
depression. The latter two factors suggest the system may be slow
to strengthen...and none of the intensity guidance currently
forecasts an intensity greater than 55 kt during the forecast
period. Based on this...the new intensity forecast is an update of
the previous forecast in best agreement with the SHIPS model. It
is possible that the system could weaken to a tropical wave during
the forecast period...as forecast by the ECMWF...UKMET...and GFS
models.

Bobbi's thoughts:

Earlier today the UK Met called for a possible dissipation and I think that should be considered seriously as a possibility. Probably not..but how it pulls a rabbit out of it's hat right now... don't know. Not sure.

I have suffered from asthma at times in my life. I know what it is like to be unable to breathe and trust me..Tropical Depression 2 is struggling.

A great video shows this and explains it and it has a good number to call if you need to learn more about how to fight asthma.



On a personal note, I went out for a walk in some misty rain from a stalled out cold front and mailed a small package to my daughter for her birthday, she lives in Ottawa and works for Lubavitch there as a teacher. I mailed a silly card to my sister in law in Miami. I put up some pea soup for dinner. I sat, thought, relaxed and was very glad they did not upgrade because despite all the hoopla on line and the pre-publicity of the Weather Channel and Accuweather and sites upgrading it online... it doesn't look good. Smart move, good discussion by Beven who is one of the best.

Watch Jim William's most excellent tropical update later this evening

http://www.hurricanecity.com/update.htm

Will be back if something big happens but if this tropical depression fights off that shear and SAL I think Hollywood should make a movie out of it!!!

:)

Night for now.. Bobbi