Danny moving slowly... many possibilities, NY still in the Cone

Quick update on Danny, he is problematic and there are several possible scenarios but the end game is the same. He ends up going out to sea after possibly tracking across Long Island and New England... or the tip of Long Island, or maybe he will just stay off the coast.

He is moving a bit slower than expected and has a problem in that his convection is MIA and the steering currents are a bit fuzzy for now but he should (it seems) at some point take off like a bat out of hell and make a hard right turn to the north.

Let's hope so.

Out by Africa (can't you hear the drums...) there is a new Tropical Wave catching the eye of trackers everywhere. Small wave, strong SAL (African dust..achoo) and not the best conditions but models do develop it and one behind it that has not come off yet.



The NHC Discussion at 5PM did discuss the problems that I mentioned. A bit from the 5PM:

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND IT MAY TAKE 24 HR OR MORE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF
THE STORM FAVORS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST."

BEVEN's Discussion, not mine...same issues we are all looking at but now we have the final word.

That's it.. keep watching. Short on time, long on looping and have to go to a meeting somewhere. Perhaps by 11 Danny will have turned over a new leaf and we will see him following the plan.

Take care... Bobbi