UPDATED 11 PM............15 Still 15. Water Rescues in Raleigh from Heavy Rain -TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 FORMS OFF THE CAROLINAS ---- Dueling Invests..........Tropical Trouble in the Tropics But Nothing Compelling or Major... Waves off of Africa And The Seasons About to Flip So Watch Out. Meteorological Fall Brings Trouble and the Equinox Massiver Hurricanes Usually. Oh and the Story of Victor and Ella.
...in some areas.WATER RESCUE: First responders rescued four people stuck in this vehicle on Sanders Road in Willow Spring.— Aaron Thomas (@WRALAaron) September 1, 2020
Everyone is okay, but the car is still stuck in the water. @WRAL has team weather coverage at 11pm. #wral pic.twitter.com/57kHGIUaQk
Okay we have Tropical Depression 15 off the East Coast from Invest 90L that is forecast to stay offshore and become a Tropical Storm in the near future. I would go to the beach and see how close it gets tomorrow, but I have a funeral for my friend Victor in Raleigh so guess I'll catch the next named storm round these parts because I'm guessing the third time is the charm for really being impacted by a tropical threat this year. So 15 will be a Tropical Storm in theory Nana unless the NHC uses that name randomly in the Caribbean ... 2020. Meanwhile I was outside watching a wild line of thunderstorms come through fast and furious and I do mean furiously. Trees, bushes don't usually bend in Raleigh and it's not Miami where you get sheets of rain and squalls, but today's summer thunderstorm was wild.
#raleigh #thunderstorm Gusty sheets of #rain pic.twitter.com/ZrAe4G1zxY— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 31, 2020
Except for the huge puddles.
Stay tuned.
#90L close in off the #Carolinas & #99L down in the #Caribbean both have their roll on as per MIMIC loop. Is #91L off the coast of #Africa? That wave came off spinning!!! https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa updating the blog & waiting to see what will be from the NHC #tropics not so slow pic.twitter.com/6H5mjv37Rq— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 31, 2020
I feel like we are at this scene in the movie...
Dueling Invests.
Yes, I do love this map and probably the main reason I love it is that it looks like a map. I do love maps. And, if there is anything here it sniffs it out and it's true to form so you can see the whole basin and if any storms might be trying to form. It doesn't show the intense detail of other newer sites but we don't have anything wild to zoom in on today so this is my default loop. So what does this loop show to the lay person who hasn't spent their life studying meteorology? It shows a wave train that's coming from Africa and it shows frontal boundaries moving off the East Coast into the Atlantic and what you can't "see" is the strong High the waves are being propelled South of as they move towards the Caribbean.
There are no huge hurricane threats today, however something could form if it gets strong enough for the NHC to tag it as a Tropical Depression later today considering the odds and the color of the crayola. Isn't it funny how everyone immediately remembers their favorite color in the big 64 box of Crayola. My cousin Brian always had the 64 box, my mother decided 48 was enough but my Aunt would go all out for the 64 box of crayons. All that bartering at friend's houses as kids wanted to trade off the yucky color for the one they loved. These are Invests, they are not the color you will always remember but they may work fine to color in your emotionally healing coloring book. Apparently in 2020 people are coloring their way to therapy or trying to overcome boredom so mentioning it. Supposedly it's good therapy.
What do I think about the tropics?
Later this week we hit Meteorological Fall and Fall really begins if you are like me and want Fall to happen sooner rather than later.
Then in 3 weeks we have the actual Fall that comes during the equinox when hurricanes like to happen and the seasons begin to collide. Indian Summer sets in, it gets very hot then a strong front pushes it's way down and at the same time waves that rolled off of Africa move towards the Low attached to the fronts and suddenly the East Coast is in play as storms lift more and try to avoid the Caribbean. While this happens the Caribbean really boils and the waves that never formed mix it up with convection off of Columbia and turn into huge SW Caribbean monsters and we worry that they will pull North towards the previously mentioned Cold Fronts.
This is the real season... the mix of the seasons and this is why in Colonial Days when people kept weather logs in the colonies they referred to hurricanes as Equinoxal Storms. They didn't have satellite imagery but they knew the door was open to a real hit from a storm that happened near the Fall Equinox. That's sort of what I call Captain Climo. They didn't have satellite imagery but they knew from the logs that were written before them that they needed to worry in September going into October for one hard last slam from a tropical system before true winter set in.
What does that mean TODAY?
I'm concerned personally on the region from South Florida to Charleston personally as they have been extremely active with lightning storms, high heat and humidity and growing up in Florida that is what we call Hurricane Weather. Will something pull WNW and feel the tug of an early front and roll across Florida somewhere or curve gracefully away towards the Carolinas or will one of them grind it's way like Matthew up along all the coastal beaches, causing flooding and slam into South Carolina or the Outer Banks before moving fast up the coast clipping Long Island? Maybe ... it's possible.... it's also possible the Northeast is in play when a door opens briefly for a tropical threat making landfall vs clipping Cape Cod after clipping Long Island and going up into Canada.
What I am saying is we are beginning to change gears here away from what I have sarcastically called "ACE FOR A DAY STORMS" that form close in, flare up and make landfall and get a name and cause pain for the people trying to clean up in August Heat without electricity and bits and pieces of their lives tossed about which is really sad and yeah I've been there it's not a pretty place to be it's a make it through the day the best you can and pray there are better times coming.
In Miami post Andrew it was a hot hell with no air and no running water but daily showers provided by Mother Nature and no electricity for weeks, no cable TV for months. After Wilma we had cool air and we could sit outside around a campfire the kids made cooking off thawed out turkeys and enjoy the stars in the dark night as no one had power but we all had a cool breeze from our first early cold front. Again words matter..........we had an early cold front.