Hurricane Warnings Up for Florida, Tropical Storm Warnings for Miami Though Things Change Fast and Often with ISAIAS. NC State of Emergency Declared

This is a good guide for wind speed

It's from the NRL

small circle TS winds.

Larger circle Hurricane Winds.

It follows the Cone but it's a good grahic.

Please be aware in the South Florida area for all the people living in Aventura in highrises or in the North Miami Beach area you are close to the line as storms don't stop at Hallandale Blvd, it's a guide to use so if you are within that area in the Dade Broward Line treat this as if you are getting a hurricane. And I'm sure tomorrow this will be updated throughout the day on Saturday but I'll be offline and wanted to give this information now.  Stay safe, stay inside avoide debris that could fly in the stronger gusts ... better safe than sorry as the saying goes.

First off it's worth saying we have been watching this storm for days after it rolled off of Africa as a larger than normal tropical wave. It has been consistenty inconsistent and often hard to pin down it's exact center or strength. The speed was faster than it has been and as people who have been reading my blog and Tweets on Twitter will remember I have always had issues with the forecast in that I do believe the High is stronger than expected. The high has been strong and the trof is weak and as a minimal hurricane ISAIAS will take the more westerly route and stay within the Western side of the NHC Cone. And, as always if models change or ISAIAS strengthens they will up their intensity or nudge their cone on the next advisory, nothing here is set in stone. So far they insist most of Miami will be okay putting up Hurricane Watch for Hallandale Beach which is basically the first beach city in Broward County ... one block from Dade County. Hey I guess they have to draw the line somewhere. 

Botton Line is prepare to deal directly with ISAIAS in one way or another ane hope and pray the NHC forward speed forecast verifies and this does not begin to feel the strength of the high making it slow down more. I'm more worried on the strength of the high than various shear discussions. If it's core is stacked it will be cruising slowly over 90 degree water and it can intensify very close to land .. practically over the beach so prepare for the worst, hope for the best and know more will show up later this hurricane season so look at ISAIAS as a dress rehearsal. 

There is also TD 10 but it's far away and not a player now.

Back to ISAIAS 

Models for ISAIAS below from

www.tropicaltidbits.com

You can see why the NHC moved the cone West.

When you go to the NHC...

...please check out their Interactive Cone.

Literally goes down to your street level.

Let's you know of what watches or warnings you may have.

Please use it ... it's a good product.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205732.shtml?gm_track#contents

A good Tweet by Craig Setzer above.

His concerns were realized a while later.

When the NHC did nudge the Cone a bit.

Phil makes it clear here what to do.

Prepare for Tropical Storm Force Winds.

Tropical Storm Force Winds can do a lot of damage.

Trust me, really. 

Power can go out if a tree snaps.

Or someone drives into a Power Pole blinded by a squall.

Stay inside do not drive about!

And in my neck of the woods.

I watch Brittany Bell often, she's very good.

So yes we are all watching ISAIAS

ISAIAS could impact SC beach towns before NC.

And it is currently forecast to have inland impacts.

Tho ...often that changes.

But just telling you if you need to go shopping...

...do it now not later just in case.

So here we are Friday Afternoon and everyone wants to know what is going to happen with ISAIAS and the truth is no one can tell you exactly 100% what it will do as it has to hit certain benchmarks or hurdles before the next one.  First comes what happens in South Florida and the maddening part about this is no one is sure but they are leaving the door open for more direct impacts than they thought last night. Everyone wants to know about Miami and all I can say is expect to get tropical storm force winds and fast moving cells that fly through strong gusty winds. What do I mean by that? If you think nothing is happening and decide you NEED to go out for coffee or something and suddenly a squall comes through moving fast at you with 50 mph winds and debris slams into your windshield (could be worse...) so yeah that can happen. You can have heavy rain, localized flooding and the mango tree laden with mangoes can go flying in the wind.. or at least a branch of the mango tree. I'm serious you got to do what you got to do in today's world to protect yourself, your family and your property. Stay on top of the official sources and check with any updates from the NHC regarding South Florida direct impacts. 

As for the Space Coast this could be a much more direct hit and if the storm stays out over the Atlantic over the very hot waters of the Gulfstream they could have a rare landfalling hurricane. Think similar to Matthew but not as strong and not as much storm surge. Probably it clips the Cape but as everything with this storm seems to happen at the last minute unexpected, expect the unexpected.

Up the Coast meaning the beautiful area from Daytona Beach to the Carolinas expect a better than average chance of getting a tropical visitor.   North Carolina has a State of Emergency officially and we are expecting something.  It's 2020 right?

I'll update Saturday Night late til then stay on top of any late changing issues concerning 

Stay on top of everything at www.spaghettimodels.com and his Facebook Lives. He is excellent and covers the storm from many angles.  And as always check with your local forecasters as they best know your localized concerns and hwo to best prepare for a landfallng Hurricane or Tropical Storm.

Sorry for any typos..  have the worst sinus headache today. Maybe it's a migraine.. maybe it's concern on my kids in Miami and everyone I know calling me to ask what I think. Or just the weather, it's been beastly hot in North Carolina. 28 of the 31 days had a Heat Alert... usually that is followed by a hurricane or two. Just my thoughts. 

Stay safe!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram. 

Ps.. I am offline for the Jewish Sabbath until Saturday after dark Raleigh time so I'll be back online then.Stay safe!!

UPDATED 11 AM ... Still A Hurricane. ISAIAS Down Near the Coast of Cuba and Haiti Waiting To Move Up Into the Gulfstream Towards Florida First... Then Where? How Strong? What Can Go Wrong? (It's a rhyme.. )

Discussion is fairly good. Honest.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT4+shtml/310855.shtml?

Read it. Explains the issues going on.

2 Salient points below.

And this part... uncertainties pointed out.

Thoughts for Floridians.

Especially South Florida.

Thoughts for the Carolinas.

Later this afternoon I'll talk models.

And what may happen up at the N part of the Cone.

But much depends on intensity...

...and what it does in the 3 day. 

Please keep reading my thoughts from less than an hour ago.

Nothing really has changed.

ISAIAS is flaring up... on it's West side.

Once it lifts off of the N Coast of Cuba.

Less land interaction and warmer water.

Mitigated by shear yes but hot water!

* * *

This is better than the Cone if you ask me.

As when it's in the 3 day here....

...there's usually very little variance.

I want to put these thoughts here yet I do not buy them just yet but I see problems in the forecast. When I say what could go wrong? Bad data into the models is a problem to begin with...  Last night they said 60 MPH and hour later Recon found 80 MPH winds (were they really in the center or near the center as in gusts...hate to second guess Recon but similar issues have happened in the past) and then models use 80 MPH and see a stronger hurricane momving fast up into a weakness and an Upper Level Low zooming off to Carolina and the NE.  What if it wasn't a 80 MPH Hurricane and the earlier generous 60 MPH was the true speed and the NHC is having problems finding much down there this morning. They have two planes in there and they aren't finding much. It's also further WEST than expected and not just crawling across the Northern Coast of Haiti but taking Irma's Yelp Reviews of the Cuban Coast seriousy and lunging more West towards the North Coast of Cuba. I know the NHC would say that's "short term movement" and maybe that's true but until this gets fully off the coast and we can really see what is going on I still feel the timing is wrong. Something is off.  A new model just showed it coming in at South Carolina not North Carolina, another model keeps it West and the beautiful consensus we see currently could be based on a lie as in bad data in you get garbage and good data in you get reliability. We are inside that 3 day window. We need not to get anything wrong and when I say "we" I mean the powers that be not me. NHC makes the Cone. I just offer thoughts and discussion based on knowledge, history and knowing the water vapor loop really well because honestly I was taught the Water Vapor Loop by the best. True Confessions! So let's move on and see what the NHC says at 11 AM. 

Models from Spaghetti Models.

A look close up at Hurricane Isaias

You see our hurricane.

A small center. A large envelope.

A trench of dry air.

Yet it keeps moving there.

Crawling a bit now closer to Cuba.

Seen that before haven't we... 

And Florida up in the corner to the NW

https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm/status/1289173826018750470

There's a video on Twitter.

Blogger is being odd this week ...

...while they work out their new version.

Another Tweet link below.

https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm/status/1289170710259212288

And there is this short term discussion.

Regarding Florida using www.windy.com

It's on Twitter check it out.

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Note our 3 main models...

...all get to the same general spot.

Timing is a bit off.

NHC Cone

A cone we are familar with especially in Florida.

Matthew, Dorian. Flody.

Different intensities.

Turning offshore....

... clipping the coast a bit.

Moving on to North Carolina.

Hurricane Center now forecasts 100 MPH.

Cat 2 Strength.

I did say that yesterday didn't I?

We will see soon enough........

...when it lets go of Haiti and Cuba.

And starts swimming in the Gulfstream.

Hot Gulfstream.

Mitigated by shear in theory.

Side note  here ... while writing I try not to read on Twitter my friends so I stay focused on my thought. My youngest son who loves to play with models and loops just sent me a video of Hurricane Wilma doing Rapid Intensification with the tag "not related to anything but cool loop" so yeah that just happened. You can Google it. Yes, not related but we are not very good at Intensity forecasting as when the NHC put out a brief, early 11 PM and an hour later it went from 60 MPH to 75 MPH BAMN! So far it's holding down there and in my mind moving a bit slower than previously forecast but time will tell.

This is a good loop to use to watch the storm and it's steering currents always visible on the water vapor loop.  https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Variables are strength often.

And they upgrade if something changes.

You can see the frontal system moving....

And Isaias crawling along the coastline.

Almost like a child afraid in a pool...

...to let go and they hang onto the wall.

And they creep around holding on still.

I know you've seen that.

Remember when you were a child or you played with a child coloring and they trace things and then they color them in and then they trace the border of the picture with a black crayon usually to make the picture pop and look finished I suppose. Or maybe they just copy some other kid who is doing it but it's very common and these coastal cruisers or coastal crawlers remind me of a child tracing the coast on a map. Luckily this is not a Categor3 or 4 or more and we have been watching it forever so it's not a surprise at the door that you weren't expecting and you ketp thinking "odd, I don't remember ordering anything from Amazon recently" and I'll add have you ever ordered something and they send you a message it arrived. You look outside and there's nothng there, then you realize they put it by the neighbor's door? 

Then there is that package you bought and they told you it would come in 2 days, but nowdays in Coronal Time often you get a note that it's coming, but it will be delivered tomorrow. I know people hate that.... just go to sleep and it will show up tomorrow. But Before Corona we expected tomorrow to mean tomorrow but now tomorrow means maybe the day after tomorrow. My grandchildren say that nowdays "Before Corona" and it can mean anything from "Before Corona when we were in school on the way home from school there was a storm" or "before Corona when we went to Disney" or well you get it. Maybe Corona is trying to teach us patience and in the immediate world we live in where we think we can control everything with the click of the keyboard, hit send and it's delivered tomorrow we felt too in charge. Now we know, we aren't always so in charge. Control is an illusion. It's often a beautiful illusion, but just an illusion. 

Enjoy the song and let's see what evolves today to slightly alter what we thought was a given and don't be surprised if something odd happens (as I said late last night a "kink" in the forecast but know that it's there and on it's way.

Again as far as the models go and steering currents... a weaker storm stays further to the West, closer to the coast and a stronger one should ramp up and make a run for it faster. Who really has faith in UPS anymore? Just saying.. Amazon seems to work better usually than other methods.

Music is a memory and it's amazing sometimes because various songs on an albumm get jumbled up in your head sometimes and pieces of one song blend into another. I always think of the song Pieces of You and yet it's not that song but this song I really like........but the other song that is harsh but honest remains in my brain at the same time. This is a song from my childhood or more specifically my teenage years, except really it was my second teenage years ... dreams last so long, even after your gone. What a great song. Must have been meant for me and vice a versa as we all dance online in our virtual world. And in truth models that we chase are often a virtua world of what might be some day and then we wait in real time to see what really is going to happen with the storms of our lives.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/fWdjjftbjpo

Again ........My Bottom Line.

We know the basic track with some variations. We know to expect surprises from Isaias and because it's 2020 afterall and when you grow up in Miami you never trust a forecast til it's past Daytona or Tampa or well on it's way somewhere else. Good advice as we know Hurricanes can happen and they can rapidly intensify or suddenly stall out because the High is stronger and the ULL is whatever so just be like a Miamian and know that in the last 36 hours something often changes. 

Kind of looks surrounded doesn't it?

I know what the models show.

But sure looks corralled there.

Oh and we are basically into August so we are busy, prime time. More on those areas later.

This afternoon I'll blog on these areas.

And the expected impacts/landfalls up the coast.

But this morning it's about Florida first.

Besos BobbiStorm

I'll update after new advisories.

Either at the top or a stand alone post.

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Midnight Update. HURRICANE ISAIAS ---- Intensifying Faster than Forecast ........11 PM Tropical Storm ISAIAS Advisory, Cone and Thoughts

11 PM Forecast Points.

36 hours showed a hurricane.

Midnight Upgrade at hour later shows a new forecast points.

Category 2 Hurricane down the road....

...doesn't seem to unbeliveable does it?

So here we are an hour after the 11 Pm Advisory was put out and rather than taking 36 hours as per their 11 PM Forecast Discussion... ISAIAS moves off of Hispanoila and turns Hurricane immediately an hour after the 11 PM was released. If you read further down you'll see I was concerned about "kinks" in the forecast. Something is off be it tiimng or intensity, that I knew but I expected to see it in the morning not an hour later.  Intensity forecasting is the Holy Grail that escsapes the NHC often as it did by Dorian when it rapidly itnensified after coming off of the Virgin Islands. We are further West from that position as ISAIAS is actually where the NHC thought Dorian would be before Dorian hit intensified over the Virgin Islands rather than going over Hispanoila.   The belief that Hispanoila is the cure all for Florida storms has been disproved again and again; granted often it can help by destroying a storm but often what doesn't kill it only makes it stronger.

So again I'll say it one more time. While the NHC track cone is the bottom line, always prepare for one category more than it shows and if you are in or near the cone or even on the edge of the cone... do not turn your back unti it's in the rear view mirror. Just as intensity can happen... a slow down in forward speed could happen while it's battling the shear the NHC has mentioned and I still have questions personally on the High Pressure. Have to see what we wake up to in the morning. But, a lot of people who went to sleep at 11 with an early advisory that was short and seemed to show a movement less concerning for Florida suddenly seems not as relevant as to concerns what other kinks can show up in the forecast.  Hurricanes are not easy to predict, we like to think they are in 2020 but it's 2020 so go with the rule that anything can happen, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Sweet Tropical Dreams... BobbiStorm.. Please keep reading the information was written about 90 minutes ago my thoughts on concerns on a kink in the forecast are very relevant.

* * * 

Time of Arrival of Winds..

Earthnull shows the center straddling the coastline.

Know a good part of it is over water feeding it.

One of the benefits of being a big system.

Intensity forecast from the NHC.

I'd prepare for a Cat 2 and hopefully....

... people feel nothing more than TS winds.

To be honest the problem is that until ISAIAS really is off the coastline and swimming fast in the water we don't know for sure what it will look like and if there are any kinks in the current forecast track. One kink may be timing, it's slowed every so in it's foreward speed. The area near the SE coast that is tugging it in that direction is there in place, meanwhile ISAIAS is still partially over land. The timing has to be perfect for this track to verify and if one part of the equation changes then sometimes the end result changes as well. 

As for Florida. You are obviously mostly not in the cone, on the edge of the cone and Floridians know well how fast flavors can change and suddenly there is no Caribbean Rum Raisin and only Butter Pecan avaialble. What looked like a Florida storm ends up near Georgia headed to South Carolina. Odds are that it stays offshore but again until we see what it looks like in the morning and if all the steering currents are still the same tomorrow I wouldn't sound any all clear nor tell you not to worry about it. It's best to be cautious and hope the awaited curve away from the coast happens. 

For Georgia, Carolinas and Virginia If the storm comes close to you and it's more intense than expected it can have impacts in the way irma impacted St. Marys Georgia but that was a rare blow and a hruricane that had been traveling a long ways. This is an intensifying Tropical Storm forecast to be a Cat 1 and thought to be possibly Cat 2 by many so pay attention. For South Carolina/North Carolina border towns as always hurricanes like to go to Wilmington but if I was a hurricane I'd raather go to Myrtle Beach, that said I love Myrtle Beach so I hope it doesn't go there.  NC up tothe VA line especially the Outer Banks always expect a hurricane will cross their beautiful beaches so I know you are all watching it.

Up the Coast. As in Mid Atlantic to New England. You will see tons of images online and lots of ClickBait promising you a blend of Hurricane Sandy and the 1938 Hurricane. Don't click on it. It is possible it could find it's way all the way up to Cape Cod. I can't say right now and not sure anyone can tell you for sure this far out. But this is definitely one to watch. I asked Rob from www.crownweather.com for analog storms and he said Bob and Carol so let's hope Ted and Alice don't show up also. Okay, bad joke. I'm tired. This could be one that does threaten NE and points in between.

Or it curves away off shore of Florida, clips OBX ..touches the tip of Long Island and moves past Boston fast. It's just too soon to be sure. You have the NHC Cone so unless something begins to change, stick with it and keep checking it every 6 hours.

I'll be on in the morning and we all will, everyone you trust online and TWC will be on nonstop and NHC is always watching the storm on multiple screens using all the methods they use to give you the best forecast. The problem is sometimes tricky storms throw a kink in the plan and ISAIAS has been tricky and hard to figure from day one so I don't see a reason to believe that won't change.

Stay tuned.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

UPDATE FIVE - ISAIAS Now Forecast to be a Hurricane.... Tropical Storm Watch Up For Parts of Florida. Carolinas on Alert. From the Carib Into the Atlantic. What Does It Look Like AFTER It Finishes That Passage......ISAIAS Pulling Together and Convection Closer to the Center Trying to Thread the Mona Passage & Avoid a Direct Tangle with the Mountains. What Happens in the Bahamas? A Florida East Coast Storm or Does it Recurve. Hurricane Could Be In It's Future.

5 PM Cone.

The continued trend to the right for now....

... Cone over Florida but maybe more a NC storm?

Oh and yes it is forecast now to be a hurricane.

By the NHC officially.

It most likely will be stronger than 75 MPH.

Even NHC hinted at that in their discussion.

More time over warmer water and Gulfstream is hot.

While it looks better for people in Florida.

It approaches the SC/NC coast.

Again Cones change.

So if you are in Florida keep watching carefully.

Changes happen in real time.

Anotehr example... if it intnsifies... 

The wind field will go further out in all directions.

This is the issue shown below.

The huge pocket that is ISAIAS ... moistened up the High.

The area off the SE coast attacks it from the other side.

Lows go to lows... it will move towards low pressure.

Away fom High Pressure.

Meanwhile there is a Tropical Storm watch for S FL

Close up above shows where the center is.

It will emerge over the water soon.

And there is one that might form by Africa.

Currently NHC keeps it a short term project.

But that may change.

Those are the basics at 5.

More later but this is the trend.

Back later.

'

Much to say yet not much has changed.

We are still dealing with it's passage.....

...from Carib into Atlantic.

Plain and simple.

Isaias is located at 18.1 N 68.9 W

Moving NW at 20 MPH

Winds 60 MPH

Pressure 1003 MB.

Cone below.

I don't want to go long here so keeping it short and giving you my thoughts. From reading the NHC carefully worded discussion at 11 AM it is clear they have a good idea what it should do and yet there are many possibilities here as the real question is what does ISAIAS look like down the road strength wise a good six hours after it finishes it's passage into the Atlantic out of the Caribbean. The one constant with this system has been it's fast forward speed. It's averaged a forward speed of 20 MPH. There is talk of shear in the region that it will be traveling through yet shear forecasts often collapse fast in the light of reality and the evolution of events. Nice to look at them but hard to rely on them. If I had a dollar for every shear forecast that flopped badly I'd be really rich. Often they are right but like all forecasts they are updated in real time, it's a guide and a suggestion not carved in stone.  The NHC, rightly so, leaves open the door cautiously for many things and there is low confidence currently in the intensity forecast. That said I'd explect a Hurricane out of this .... if it does indeed stay intact, wrap and coalesce and consolidate in the warm waters of the Bahamas near the Gulfstream. Timing is everything and so is location. I've seen many storms come to a slow crawl after barreling across the ocean in this region and nothing shows that now but it still feels the timing on this is off somewhere to me. Let's hope it sniffs high octane fuel by the Gulfstream and scoots out to sea tracing the coastline. But we can't rely on wishes and dreams ...............if 2020 has taught us anything..........it is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  Cautiousness counts be it Covid or Tropical Weather.

I'll update later today. For now ISAIAS will do what it is going to do. And that also has been the one constant with a strong tropical wave that came off of Africa and was given low chances by many of not making it due to size. Then the NHC gave it better marks but it still didn't perform according to their expectations. It's stubborn and it finds a way to survive it seems.........so far. Stay Tuned. I see no reason not to expect it to be a hurricane if it indeed makes it across as an entity and the NHC does forecast that it stays just under hurricane strength, but as always they are conservative on Intensity.

I want to show new links this week.

Old links I haven't used in a while.

https://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#.XyLkVjfYrrc

They are an awesome site among many great sites.

Each site offers something a bit different.

Good wind field map.

Keep watching... 

...read please if you haven't done so already.

Image from 9 AM

Compare and contrast with new image at the top.

What a difference a day makes.

Wider view.

Way better looking Tropical Storm this morning.

Concentrated energy.

Convection over closer to the center.

Found the Mona Passage.

It obviously has a plan.

Storms that find the Mona Passage....

...often become big problems.

NRL map more tied to Wind Probabilities.

As always this changes in real time.

Starting here with this link because I do believe it says the most about the possibilities down the road with Tropical Storm ISAIAS. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPW

SAT4+shtml/300847.shtml?

Let's start up at the top of the cone.

For a change. Mixing it up.

Click on that you find New England

down to VA.

Then we move down the coast to the Carolinas.

Very likely one of these places sees it...

... Wilmington N to OBX.

Ocean Isle Beach.

Myrtle Beach down to Jacksonville Florida.

My favorite part of the world these days.

Even I'm in it as is Greensboro NC inland...

The beautiful Florida Coast.

From Key West up thru Miami

All the way up thru Orlando inland.

Next and lastly the wild cards.

The more Western option for ISAIAS

Tallahassee to the West...

and the Islands in it's direct path.

Gotta feel for the Bahamas.

This is ISAIAS NOT Dorian.

Not Matthew or Irma.

It's ISAIAS remember that.

But there is a Deja Vu feel here.

Again the link to use for Wind Probs.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWS

AT4+shtml/300847.shtml?

Why Wind Probs... why not the MODELS? I can show models this afternoon. The models will adjust to what Isaias does and how the environment changes. The NHC uses models and they make the Cone for you, if the Cone budges left or right then the models did that. And the wind probs follow the models and the Cone. If the models pull North you will see Tampa, Mobile and Penscacola in the wind probabilities. If this looks like a direct hit for NC vs an Outer Banks brush then cities further to the West have higher wind probs or show up in the wind probs. If momdels pull to the right Raleigh loses it's wind probs. They are good indicators of future possibilities beyond the graphic and sometimes confusing cone.

Ye olde Wind Probs is a good guide to measure the possibilities and to be honest with this storm it's always been about possibilities and potential. Will that potential be realized and which possibility becomes a reality? That is our bottom line this morning.  I'm staying short this morning and I'll update after the 11 AM and possibly wait until the next set of model runs. Though in truth the best thing to do today is to prepare for the 2020 Hurricane Season and possibily ISAIAS. If our I storm doesn't motivate you I don't know what will. 

ISAIAS found it's easy way out of the Caribbean without a direct passage over Hispanoila taking the easy out by finding the Mona Passage the same way another recent wanna be did despite all the predictions for it crawling over Hispanoila.

Models today are only as good as the last model run. The hurricane center outlines the main models with their Cone and using the best data to forecast the track as we can tell best at this moment. If ISAIAS strengthens over the warm waters of the Bahamas it becomes a stronger storm and most likely pulls more to the East staying just off shore (hopefully) but if it stays weak and battles shear that some models forecast will be there it could wander West more and tangle with Florida directly.Being up in North Carolina long enough for me to learn the way of the Carolina storms it's easiest to just go set up camp in the Outer Banks if you want to chase this storm. The trend in models is what to watch metered with patience and waiting for the next model run. Today is a good day to keep double checking your plans if you live in an area where you are supposed to evacuate and don't assume anything in this year of Covid and anything goes.  More on that in yesterday's blog in bold after a Press Conference with various Mayors on TWC and it was a real eye opener. So it's crucial this year to have a plan, a back up plan and know what your options are as well as getting to the store first to stock up as lines in a pandemic will be epic and leave you stories to tell your grandchildren.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram weather and whatever.

Ps. Best song for the day is this one and I save that for these sort of storms trying to impress someone who didn't think it had much to it.  I'd like to believe it's a one hit wonder, crosses over with mild impacts, cruises through the Bahamas and recurves out to sea but I don't feel that way about it so buckle up buttercups (as they say) it may be a crazy few days for Florida and Carolinas and parts of the East Coast unless it swims out to sea parralleling the coastline battling shear and well let's talk on that tomorrow. This morning it's singing "how do you like me now??"

Link to song, hope it works. 

Blogger been odd today.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/3umaLe37-LE