Nicole Killed Off At 5... Lot of strong weather down there

Just not where the NHC and their models expected it to be... you can see for yourself where she is and how strong she is and if anything she has a bit of a banding going on which she did not have a few hours ago. Go figure.

Weather is fluid. Models become stagnant. A good friend made a comment to me that the models have become a bit of a crutch, too much reliance on the models and not enough on long term knowledge of how these systems usually play out.

For one... Nicole never took off like a bat out of hell even tho she is moving slowly. She reformed further south which was not part of their plan. And, like I said the other day they are very happy to hand her off to the National Weather Service.

However.............. the NHC has for years been tracking extra-tropical storms and cyclones so why can't they continue to do so? Especially when she is supposed to make landfall up the coast as a strong "GALE CENTER" which basically means it has winds of Tropical Storm force intensity and higher...

Just saying.... the energy from Nicole that is STILL down there near Cuba far to the south of the old center that was killed off like some Cubans caught on a raft 2 miles off shore and sent back to Cuba.... and that energy will come north when it wants to.. then a new low forms (if you believe the NHC discussion) and it moves inland around Wilmington (give or take, always easy to call a hit on Wilmington.. odds are they usually get it) and then it moves inland towards Richmond and rains over the Piedmont and well into the mountains. More so... the warnings up here are for the strongest wind and most severe weather to be on the cool side of the frontal boundary which means inland...

Heavy steady rain in Raleigh.... heavy rain in Miami... everyone's wet and the NHC is "not dealing" with a system that is still tropical. Easy to downgrade... what next?

Further to the east are two yellow circles to watch... and they bear watching.

I'll be off for the next 3 days for the Jewish Holidays of Simchas Torah and then Shabbos and by Saturday night we will see how much damage this "Gale Center" did...

Considering Wilmington already has record rainfall totals.... I've heard talk there could be more rain than Floyd..then again have heard it will go inland...

Only time will tell...

Besos Bobbi

Tropical Storm Nicole. OFFICIAL @ 11 (finally)

Well...they finally found her center. She's been down there over Cuba doing the Zumba and her ass is a bit all over the place but she should clean up nicely by the morning when she moves towards Charleston to do the Shag ;)

Nice that they finally figured out where her true center is.

You can watch the process...still in progress...on the following loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

More later.... when there is more to tell.

Besos Bobbi
ps...guess they will slap those models around a bit.

Trouble with TD 16/Nicole

She's an ugly duckling. It really is that simple. Thought on this in the gym but sadly couldn't type while doing what I was doing.

Point..and keeping it short as I have an appointment.

1... There are always multiple centers in weak tropical storms more than in depressions. Depressions tend to be more simplistic..they find the center and report it.

2... Overnight a massive area of deep convection formed to the south of where the center of TD 16 is... a few models did show something like this happening however they kept 16/Nicole as a separate entity moving faster. AGAIN... NHC has been OFF on timing all season, track good...timing off. Nicole moved to slow yesterday to race off as planned.

3... She's one of those storms that now is messy and well like a girl turning 16 and she still looks 14. She hasn't developed, she hasn't found her poise or learned how to flirt... she's just a girl on the edge. At some point down the road she is going to find her center and wrap and look like one beautiful bathing beauty...but right now she is in the ugly duckling stage.

4... The center with the strong winds over Cuba is almost impossible to find and a new area is beginning to spin.

5... This storm is a lot like Earl of 1998..a very similar season to this one in ways, coming off the El Nino of the Century (as hype called it) and Earl looked so pathetic in it's formation stages we wanted to call it 3 Faces of Earl.. but he did come together and did make landfall and made his claim to fame...despite a messy start.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Earl

Timing again is off with the NHC and they have a bit of egg on their face that is undercooked and they are trying to figure out what TD 16 is going to do based on the models that did not see this happening the first time around.

So much for models.

Besos Bobbi

Back later...

Trouble with TD 16/Nicole

She's an ugly duckling. It really is that simple. Thought on this in the gym but sadly couldn't type while doing what I was doing.

Point..and keeping it short as I have an appointment.

1... There are always multiple centers in weak tropical storms more than in depressions. Depressions tend to be more simplistic..they find the center and report it.

2... Overnight a massive area of deep convection formed to the south of where the center of TD 16 is... a few models did show something like this happening however they kept 16/Nicole as a separate entity moving faster. AGAIN... NHC has been OFF on timing all season, track good...timing off. Nicole moved to slow yesterday to race off as planned.

3... She's one of those storms that now is messy and well like a girl turning 16 and she still looks 14. She hasn't developed, she hasn't found her poise or learned how to flirt... she's just a girl on the edge. At some point down the road she is going to find her center and wrap and look like one beautiful bathing beauty...but right now she is in the ugly duckling stage.

4... The center with the strong winds over Cuba is almost impossible to find and a new area is beginning to spin.

5... This storm is a lot like Earl of 1998..a very similar season to this one in ways, coming off the El Nino of the Century (as hype called it) and Earl looked so pathetic in it's formation stages we wanted to call it 3 Faces of Earl.. but he did come together and did make landfall and made his claim to fame...despite a messy start.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Earl

Timing again is off with the NHC and they have a bit of egg on their face that is undercooked and they are trying to figure out what TD 16 is going to do based on the models that did not see this happening the first time around.

So much for models.

Besos Bobbi

Back later...

TD 16 Has Tropical Storm Force Winds Reported... Name it already...

Suddenly the NHC goes anal over names?

I don't understand it... their own discussion explains why they should have named it but we are waiting for what??? A morning visible?? Somethings happen at night before the 5am.

Yes, it's a messy, messy system like all large, messy Tropical Storms but when you have ship reports and land reports from Cuba... there is no reason for hesitation. The Florida Straits can give an extra oomph to any storm and areas less than 24 hours away in the Carolinas will sit up and pay attention to a named storm.

Most tornadoes ...over 80%... occur at night in North Carolina. Is that a crazy statistic or what? But... happens.

Flash Flood Watch is out and there is a long, long message on the radio of warnings depending on where the rain axis sets up.

Personally... a bit worried about what Nicole is leaving behind in the Carib.



Note the storm is down by Cuba, the WINDY part of the storm...there is more rain behind it...in a large rain shield like feature that will linger for a while.

Crazy.... but it looks like the crazy models showing the one storm moving up with the front and another forming below are very possible. And, the wave in the Atlantic is moving westward to Jaws music.

Be back later with more info and hopefully being able to legally call her Nicole.

It is almost negligent to have information that would compel an upgrade and to ignore it ... in my opinion.

Their motto should be something like to warn and serve. Like the police cars.... honesty is the best policy.

Bonnie was weak, very weak... but she had a name and she made landfall as a pretty good tropical storm far to the north of where they thought she would come in.

The Miami-FLL-WPB area is a very densely populated area and areas like Hallandale and Hollywood very prone to flooding... we won't even discuss Miami Beach.

Discussion out of the NHC explaining why she should have a name...

"ALSO...AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR
DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. "

You mix and tropical system with a cold frontal boundary and you get very severe localized weather and often small tornadoes.

Give the girl a name already!

Besos Bobbi

Late Night Update.... TD 16 (or Nicole??)

models below including the official track that takes it over Miami/WPB and inland into NC after making landfall near Wilmington.. maybe Kure Beach/Ocean Isle.



For what it's worth I agree with Joe Bastardi on this one.

It's a system coming out of the tropics producing strong winds of tropical storm force intensity over a large area... name it a tropical storm already and let's move on. Much weaker systems have been named this year out in the middle of nowhere.

People are just people... we are NOT stupid... a "weak tropical depression" gets low attention... a weak tropical storm with a name gets attention and it deserves attention. From traffic accidents to people out on boats to random bad weather and strong gusts... a lot can happen and to dumb it down and pretend it's just another day of wild weather is frivolous and not what we have the National Hurricane Center for ... to prepare us for "possible" problems and give forecasts (forecasts are predictions) not carved in stone. Monuments to people who have died in Hurricanes are carved in stone.. nice one down in the Keys on the Overseas Highway.

As for this little storm that is going to travel up I95... it needs to be watched. Not worried on... no shutters or freaking... but watched.

Miami to Palm Beach will get possible tropical storm force winds and they can do damage. Then it will go back out over the water and make landfall somewhere near Oak Island to the south of Wilmington NC headed inland. There is great worrying in the NC/VA area about flooding inland around the mountains and yet I am hearing nothing about it on local weather or on the blogs which I find more curious than the NHC not naming it.

We will see tomorrow morning if she finds her groove and they can name her and get this over with. At the moment you get the feeling they would like to kill her off and hand her over to the NWS like one very wet football.

I suppose it is very hard for anyone to take seriously a storm that is still down south of Cuba as affecting an area in NC in less than two days but it can and most likely will happen. The NHC has been spot on this year with track, tho off on intensity often.

When a storm catches a cold front... it's rocket like effect.

Next .... an area out in the Atlantic moving towards the wnw is most likely going to be a concern next week for Miami and areas near Miami. Just a small heads up... pay attention.

And, if you want to hear an excellent discussion of this storm and the tropics today... go to the following link and listen to Jim Williams who stays on topic, is excellent and worth listening to tonight and always.

http://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanecitydotcom

Dash Cam ;) boy bet it's fun driving around with a dashcam ... might giggle myself to sleep.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...Bobbi

Is She Nicole? A Tropical Storm? A Tropical Depression? Or a Perfect Storm?

Sitting here watching the remnants of Julia moving eastward towards the collision of the Frontal Boundary and the storm most likely known as Nicole..now a Depression as of this posting. Three systems on the map... reminds me of the Perfect Storm set up in a way though further to the south.

Merging of the Tropical Low with the Front will make it an extratropical or subtropical storm..

What is in a name??

Miami is getting wet and getting wet now... more tomorrow... then on to the Carolinas as it takes the Cold Front Express.

I have already have 3 phone calls from kids in Miami... it's pouring and the sky looks more threatening than your normal afternoon thunderstorm.

I do expect this to be upgraded and it should be.

I do hope everyone takes it seriously as Bonnie was kind and hopefully Nicole will be too however if the moisture wraps more before landfall the strong weather might not stay offshore and hope people stay safe and properly pay attention. Unlike my kids are texting me pictures... Lord, I wonder where they get THAT from???

Pics from two pics taken seconds apart...



Stay tuned for more info later as the situation becomes more clear as to what exactly Tropical Depression 16 really is and where she is going.

Nicole Shoots Up The Coast.... FL to NC.. Pinball Wizard Queen

Great pic from the great www.flhurricane.com ;)



Something about this reminds me of a pinball game. You take a marble, nice and shiny and you put it in a barrel and shoot it up a track that is preset and only has so many options.



Remember the movie Tommy? All the weather casters online and off are screaming for the storm to form...screaming to see graphics and loops and warnings and watches and we are waiting for her entrance onto the stage... it's getting mean and hungry out there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZCwiNJ4wgo

Well...I mean weather forecasters in Miami and Melbourne need to know what to put into their forecast for WEDNESDAY...not 5 days away but pretty much what to say for tomorrow.

Crazy???

Can a storm form all the way down there and shoot up the hurricane highway through some of the most populated cities on the East Coast Map???

Well....the planes are going in and by the time I update this post we will find out of the meteorological hordes are happy and if the population along the coast from Miami to New York needs to worry on Nicole.... either way they will get a whole lot of rain.

Record rain in Wilmington, NC where a small child died yesterday when he got away from his babysitter and wandered into a drainage ditch or something that became a raging river in a flooded area... sad but oddly IF this becomes Nicole... she may have taken her first life and she has not even formed yet. Think on that... The frontal system that will give supernatural strength to Nicole is already in place.

Now ...all she has to do is show her pretty face.

Keep watching.... enjoy the music... it's the only music I got today ;)

Going to the gym for ballet/stretch/yoga and we won't be working out to Tommy I can promise you that!

Be back in a bit with more definitive info on what is currently our RED circle with an 80% chance of forming ....



Besos Bobbi
Ps while I am gone you can go to www.hurricanecity.com and watch Jim's excellent discussion on the home page or see what people have to say at www.canetalk.com.

Or you can space out to the music and watch some loops ... your choice...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZCwiNJ4wgo

loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I still say the center if further to the east from where recon is supposedly looking but only time will tell and that's a different songwriter and a way different Jim lol.

What to do about "Nicole" ???

It's a problem... there is a system down there that looks to be slowly developing while a steering pattern is developing that would move it north faster than a speeding bullet.

How do you make a forecast for a fast moving "something" that has not yet developed even though the pattern and models scream the name Nicole?

Not a nasty Nicole wind strength wise but a very, very wet Nicole moving North or NNE over an area that is already water logged and not totally prepared or sure what they are getting?

Models:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010092718-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Takes it from FLL to JFK in record time... could that verify? Looks like Nicole has a seat on JetBlue...

This is basically where the rain would go but of course does not give it a name or definition... just it is what is logic... a lot of rain.



NWS Miami:

".DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION EXPECTED TO UNFOLD TUE-WED WITH THE
MAIN IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTH FL ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.

REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...COPIUS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT-TUE...REMAINING IN PLACE
ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY MOVE TO OUR EAST BY THU."

This caught my attention as I will be up there for the Jewish Holiday of
Simchas Torah that may be very soggy this year....



So...going to wait and see what they say later tonight.

They can put up urban flood advisories and they can talk on probabilities and the front can out run the developing storm (possible) and either way South Florida is in for massive messy rains and possibly strong winds between the possible Nicole and wind gradient and front and there is very cool air here coming in my window. Watching Monday Night Football. Restless. Very, very restless. Not a good sign and wondering if that's a tropical thing or Just Bobbi??

Still raining up here.

NHC is holding steady at 40% chances... light orange...

Only time will tell.... but by tomorrow morning they will have to say something definitive beyond 60%.

A lot depends on "where" she forms because she could just as easily pull to the right (east) and stay offshore South Florida... never know. Seems all that talk of Tampa getting hit is Gone With the Wind... maybe once again Ft Myers gets lucky...



Sweet Tropical Dreams
Smilin Bobbi ;)

Watch N Wait Day For the Caribbean

Either it boils into something... or it never congeals. One or the other. Either we are being led down the country lane and off the beaten track away from reality or we are waiting for some Caribbean Storm to form named Nicole that takes the path in life that Matthew didn't want to take. Of course, this could be Matthew the Remake but I really think the regime at the NHC will go with Nicole IF it forms.

Sunday Morning Models:



Mind you this is what they are expecting the remnants of Matthew to do... vs a new storm with a new center. Only time will tell on this one.

Model output from the other day:



Tampa in play also:



Every day another Florida city seems to get creamed by the system that has not yet formed and may never form but probably will form.

Why?

The Carib is ripe for the picking, like peaches on a tree in Georgia in the summer... course you know what happens if you wait too long? They get over ripe, they get brown spots and fall on the ground and rot... Everything is in timing... Some peaches are Clingy and some are Freestone... same family, same fruit, same color... just different.

Maybe there will be too much wind or no upper level support...and it will be just rain and wind with no name.

Will see... it's a watch and wait day for the tropics as Matt moves slowly westward and Lisa moves slowly northward and I move slowly on with my life.

Nice holiday here... very nice, beautiful weather...though a bit on the warm side. Still think the East Coast deserves a storm this year... King/Cleo sort of path.

My sukkoth... my world for the last 3 days when I was away and not online.



The Van has left, the kids are on their way back to Crown Heights. Part of me wanted to stow away with them sooooo bad. Crown Heights on Sukkos is better than Disney and Islands of Adventure and even possibly better than a walk down Duval Street in Key West... friends, music in the streets, people dancing, friends from all over the world... maybe next year. Or maybe tomorrow... no just teasing. Here, home, watching the tropics and waiting for the Miami Dolphins to play some football.

And...watching for Matt to come back to life or Nicole to form and move North towards Florida and my brother's Sukkoth ;)

Besos Bobbi

Is Matt Lurking Down in the Caribbean?

Well we know he is somewhere... and most likely there.

Doesn't look like much right now... but in a few days...could be a BIG problem IF the storm does form and does intensify over extremely HOT water and catch a ride north with a trof that will be digging down over the country as the pattern has been broken and change is about to happen.

Unless Matt forms and flings himself towards the Pacific..he most likely WILL feel the tug north in the same way that the storms in the Atlantic turned north and recurved. Same set up but here .... he would turn into land not into the Open Atlantic.

Everything is on the table right now.. including tons of food at my house and half cooked food... but seriously, every place is in play... could be the Central Gulf Coast, North Florida, Cuba.. South Florida... curving up the East Coast with a front...

Just too early to tell.

I'll be away until Saturday night as I go into the Jewish Holiday of Sukkos. We eat outside in little huts made in the yard or on the deck and we eat in a way that we can see the stars...weather permitting. Sunflowers on the table and little blue shell lights from Pier One decorate our outdoor dining room. Family and friends... leaves falling... reminding me again and again with every leaf that falls... the pattern is changing.

When Matt forms we may see how much the pattern has changed .... and the force field that protected the US from a landfalling hurricane has been turned off... won't work from the South and when I hear Brian Norcross get that sound in his voice... I know something is going to happen.

Be well... keep watching... all eyes south as this area that doesn't look like much pulls himself together into what will most likely be one of the more memorable and destructive storms of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Besos Bobbi

Change..... Take Some Time to Breathe... Gonna Get Busy Again... Lisa Dances in the Atlantic

And, I don't mean in Greenland...

A wave in the Caribbean could....should.... develop and move either west....or pull to the north a bit more and possibly get into the Gulf...

Of course models the other day had it hitting Tampa before changing their mind so until it's within the 7 day range am not going to believe models on a storm that has not formed yet. What they do show is a storm forming.

On the other side of the Atlantic... a storm formed named Lisa. Pretty name. Pretty little storm, doing her thing far out in the Atlantic... lots of room to run. Sort of like when a little girl does somersaults she needs go back really far on the lawn so she can try to do double, triple somersaults :)

Have to admit I have not been real on top of the tropics the last few days. Got kids traveling today for the Jewish holidays and a crew coming in tomorrow from Crown Heights... that's New York or as we jokingly refer to it these days as "Africa" as the video wasn't filmed in Ghana...ya know ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4sryjCt5xI&feature=fvsr

Listen... I like the song... don't like the dance we do for zumba to it but I do like the song.... we are really all one in this world.... Africa... Australia.. Austria... I'll be back later and work on the B countries ;)

Speaking of the B storm... Bonnie was fun :) Boring season so far for me except for chasing Bonnie with weather friends :)

And.... watching the models.... got to go to the gym and got to make a menu for Sukkos and might make African Sweet Potato Peanut Soup as one of many soups. Hoping son is bringing me sweet, 770 wine I cannot get here and La Hit bar and waka waka will work off the calories doing zumba... this time for Africa...

Just bear with me... hard day for me always, lost a best friend over 30 years ago today and it doesn't get easier... it does... it doesn't.... going to go dance at the gym and be back later with a normal post for the tropically minded.

Bored tropically.... and waiting for the reinforcements to come in before cooking.

Hurricane Karl Makes Landfall as a Major Cane... Bermuda in the Crosshairs for Igor ... Reminder 1926 Miami Hurricane

I want to make a few fast points here before moving on to chores I have for the rest of the day.

1. The season is far from over and the patterns set so far will not continue as the weather patterns change and we move towards October. If you live along the Gulf Coast or in Florida, anywhere in Florida or the Carolinas please stay on top of the your game and do not think it's over and the Fat Lady has sung and start devouring your hurricane supplies (goodies) as you may seriously need them later on this season. We have a pattern, it's called Tex/Mex and Bermuda... that is based on current conditions in the atmosphere and they are and will be changing. What will not change is that storms will continue to form and ramp up fast and the next storm or the one after that might ramp up fast just off shore or where it will hit.

2. The NHC has been almost picture perfect with track this year... they have come as close to sucking as they can get on Intensity forecast. Sorry, but as an old friend Aggease used to say... I call em as I see em... Storms have been forecast to fall apart that became Category Fours. Karl did not make landfall as a Category One but as a Major Cane and Earl for all his press releases did not make landfall as a Category 3 or 4 on the Outer Banks. I pray... that they are wrong with Igor and he as dramatically weakens before hitting Bermuda as Bermuda is in the middle of the cone less than 3 days out...that is as perfect as you can get for a prediction of a landfall. It's a small dot in the ocean, hoping Igor has mercy and moves a bit left or right and saves them from a direct hit but they will get prolonged hurricane conditions for some time as he is a large, lumbering, slow moving storm.. let us hope he weakens as did Earl.



3. This weekend is the 84th Anniversary of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926.. a storm that slammed into Miami in a similar year which featured multiple Category Four storms... and a similar sort of high but one that was placed a little closer to shore and to Florida and Cuba who both took a historic hit. What people do not remember is that Florida got him in October.. again with a storm that came up out of the Caribbean as Hurricanes are want to do in October.



What if we thought we were getting a medium size Category 1 and in less than 24 hours as it was crossing the Gulf stream it hit as a Category 4?? Also, notice patterns... flooding in Iowa in 1926... Category 4 Hurricanes. Respect the past... learn from it.



So.... leave those Twinkies and fruity punch drinks in the Hurricane Locker and keep them locked up until December 1st. If you need anything that you did not get... get it.

That's pretty much it ...except to say that the storm that hit NY last night was responsible for at least one death as a car fell on a tree with a lady inside... the damage total will be crazy and some apartment buildings in Queens had the roof ripped off of them as if a can open came down from the dark, heavens and peeled it right off. Hard to believe that is not a tornado signature and just "straight line winds" but time will tell.



As for telling...Karl is making landfall as a MAJOR Cane... that became Major in less than 24 hours... fast moving, fast intensifying and a fast lesson for all of us thinking things like that just don't happen. They do...

Besos Bobbi.... My beautiful Myami below as she sits today, so close to the waterline, so beautiful...a real picture taken by my brother just a few weeks ago.

WILD WEATHER IN BROOKLYN... Igor continues on towards Bermuda

Crazy weather day far from the tropics as strong weather and a possible tornado made its way across the New York City area. Eye witness reports from my daughter and son told of severe constant lightning in Brooklyn and in Crown Heights the sky turned black as a huge low cloud descended across the area.. my son said it felt like Kansas... or maybe Iowa when tornadoes are skipping across the corn fields. Luckily, he made it into a pizza store on Kingston Avenue and watched what seemed like a normal, tropical rainstorm in Miami in Brooklyn. The storm passed fast but not so fast that it didn't do quite a bit of damage. My daughter still thinks there was a tornado in that cloud that looked a lot like a wall cloud. My kids know weather... the National Weather Service will evaluate the damage in the morning to say whether it was straight line wind damage of a possible funnel cloud.

http://www.crownheights.info/index.php?itemid=28894

A few early preliminary pictures are here.. worse ones are up at www.nypost.com and all the other photo news sites that cover the NY area.




Far away... in the tropics Igor continues moving towards a date with destiny in Bermuda... they will be very lucky if this is not their storm to remember.

Karl continues off towards Mexico. Julia continues walking along side of Igor more of less.

All the talk is of the possible formation of a storm in the Carib next week sometime that would not curve at 65 or 70 and not slam into Tex-Mex ... but could move up towards Florida or Alabama... a few wild model runs have it make a run for Tampa and places on the west coast of Florida... Cuba could get a part of the action. Only time will tell...

As for me... busy cooking and planning things for tomorrow when we eat a meal before Yom Kippur and celebrate another Jewish Holiday which occurs over the Jewish Sabbath when I am not online anyway. So.. suppose I will be back Saturday Night and we will see what we will see.

Another site out of NY with info on that freak storm system that raced through the metro area. Picture of the turned over truck is from the site below..

http://www.vosizneias.com/64373/2010/09/16/new-york-ny-tornado-warning-for-brooklyn-queens-and-staten-island

My daughter was on her way to Touro College, my son Sruly.... watching from inside Kingston Pizza. Another daughter was hunkered down in Flatbush...

As for me... fighting off a set of cluster migraines, been off more as there is not much to add to the forecast except ... pray for Bermuda that they get lucky and Igor goes wide right or wide left.

So... with all this talk of Brooklyn, thinking it's time for trip... maybe Yud Tes Kislev (Chabad holiday..) or sooner... kids coming in from Crown Heights for Sukkos so am going to be busy. If something blows up that threatens the USA I'll be around.

Listening to good video that whether you are Jewish or not Jewish ... has soul. And, somewhere in there... is a fast brief glimpse of my son singing with his friends.

Wild weather wakes you up... makes you appreciate how tenuous our "normal" is every day and how fast some storm... ice storm, rain storm or wind storm can take our world and turn it upside down.

May you all be blessed with good weather and good family and good friends ;)

Besos Bobbi

Good Morning Category 4 JULIA.... Igor and Karl

Full house here at the old Hurricane Corral and a late sprinting surpriser is the very beautiful and very intense Julia.

Boy, things can sure change fast in the tropics...

I went to bed wondering if Julia would really fade away before achieving any real fame and I wake up to find she just might be one for the record books. This may be the furthest EAST that a Category Four storm has ever formed since we have been keeping records. And, I wonder.... how the heck did the NHC not see that one coming. Of course I know the reason... one part good old "show me the proof" scientific skepticism and one part "the models never saw it coming" ...

So.... although the NHC deserves an A- for their tracks this season so far ...got to give them a real D for intensity forecasting as they missed the rapid intensification of Igor and Earl...though not to the degree that they did with Julia. This needs to be fixed.... it's a real problem, something we need to get as they say in the Carolinas "more better" so....

You wonder why I care so much? I mean they are all so far out to sea and they are ALL going to Bermuda so why worry?

Because as the judge in my divorce said ... so very appropriately... "SOMETHING CHANGED" and SOMETHING happened and this coming hurricane season may show a change in the tracks as they shift from Cape Verde storms curving out to sea to a strong Cane curving north and east up out of the Caribbean. At some point, some storm is going to form down there and catch a front north in the wrong direction and do some serious damage to some city along the Gulf Coast or even possibly the SE Coast. AND... WHEN ... not IF...that happens we have to have the intensity right because we don't need another Charlie happening in 2010 when the tracks are so good but the intensity forecasts still seem wanting....

So ...for now smile and wave at far away Julia and watch Karl form into a Hurricane and do his Tex/Mex thing and don't forget Igor who I really think WAS a Category Five and he got robbed on that one but hey... he's got time to reintensify before doing Bermuda.

Why worry?

1... Years back I did a study on Florida rainfall and years when South Florida got slammed in October... big, wet, juicy storms that slammed into South Florida. I spoke to Jim Lushine and went over things with him... he said his Dry May theories mostly supported those BIG Cape Verde Canes out of the East around a strong High. But, that indeed ....that did not take into account years like IRENE when we had record rainfall and then...we got more as the storms formed to the south and looked for the weakness in the game that was hanging directly over South Florida... You remember IRENE... that's the one that the NHC perfectly predicted the path of and then the weather center went AWOL and drenched Miami while Jim Cantore stood ankle deep in pretty water in Naples waiting for the weather...

2... Models do show the possibility of something forming down there in the long range

3... One part instinct and one part being smart and knowledgeable about hurricane history.

So...don't think they will all get away.... just because the ones doing Bermuda have frequent flyer miles they are using up on Air Bermuda.

SOMETHING WILL CHANGE... take it to the bank!!

It's only half past Seven...but I don't care... It's 5 o' Clock somewhere... Yup, listening to Jimmy Buffett Live at Fenway Park. It's a 3 CD Prize that I found USED at the music store (thank you) and I figure it's perfect for a day with 3 Storms on the map to track.

Gotta go... dance/stretch class begins in 7 minutes...

Keep watching.... I know I am....

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtPiBiMa0TU

Igor... Still West Bound

song of the day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aslpeoZ0ibY

Got so much to say this morning, so many words rattling around in my brain... but am not going to say them...going to take a shower, full power nozzle, clear out the cobwebs from my brain and take back control today.. TODAY.

Used to know a guy who went by a strange name (yes this is a riddle but no it is not a limerick) and his name was Pete. Pete Travel. Pete knew his weather and he knew his traveling. He had a friend.... sort of like a twin soul, brother from a different mother and he also predicted weather for those people who take jobs shipping stuff overseas.... transatlantic shipping not the kind you need flyover rights for and trust me you got to be good to get that stuff from point A to point B without it getting tangled up with what is at point C (Cane) which could bring us back to Ed and Geometry and all the names that rhyme with Ed. But ...this is not a lesson in grammar or math, it is a lesson in life.

Old Pete had a gift... a real gift for picking out which town on which coast would get a storm within FIFTY MILES when it was still a small rainstorm over Africa. No sorry charlie "give or take 200 miles on day 5" like the NHC does but they are not as colorful as Pete. Well... a few are ;) anyway.... I do wonder in ways what he is thinking on Old Igor though he may be too wrapped up in his current projects to worry as he ain't shipping freight anymore if you get my drift.

So... am gonna take a Hall Pass on this one and cut class today and not blog a normal blog and not do math or english or even history and take a shower, go to the gym to my stretch slash ballet slash yoga class and then do some power shopping.. might even give up and buy the fancy Victoria Secrets Bra where you don't have to worry on if the straps are right or not. You know...go for the gold.

Returning the Rumor Touch, don't like it... I mean seriously I cannot deal with my emails and txts being displayed on the phone's face as they are not all about Igor. Good name for a movie ....don't you think? All About Igor.

All about Igor is this...he is headed west... with slight joggles in his general movement, for a while he looked like he might be headed wnw but now he he back to west. You check..you tell me. Eventually I PROMISE YOU like Pete promised weather predictions... he will go north but where I cannot say. He is today, one of the most beautiful hurricanes I have ever seen and he is still ....thankfully....too far away to hurt anyone and he has enough running room that he most likely will miss the islands.

Is that the most perfect looking storm you have ever seen??



Now the question is whether not he will or won't hit England.... will leave that for PTravel to worry on as we are no longer worrying on things that go bump in the night in the Mid-Atlantic.

Taking a shower and it's not gonna be alone ;) and going to check back later to see if Igor has snifted out that weakness in the ridge and if he is or isn't going to take a road trip north. More later...stay tuned... got me priorities.

For my friend I like to call Rebbetzen Doubtfire... smiling and friggin thankful to be alive while sitting next to you when you were not focusing on the road because you were smiling so much... wickedly right... but then again you can drive with your eyes closed like a fish can swim.



You tell me which way Igor is going??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

Oh...and Julia is still out there... fate uncertain...depends on Igor and the dreaded K storm may form in the Carib today... boy are they lined up all at the same Latitude.

Besos Bobbi
Ps go take 2 aspirin and you know where to find me

WEST.... IGOR MOVES WEST

This is a pretty big improvement as most of the last day he went just south of due west. Steadily west....

Down to a chicken game of blinking here.... at some point he has to turn or the people in the islands begin to panic and have heard many are already doing so.

Wouldn't you with this coming at you???




Hey.... he's got time to start to turn towards the north.. just worried how much his own massive kick ass high that he is dragging with him is pumping crazy like and how much it is pushing him more west and lower than he should be.

Front dipping....First strong looking trof didn't impress him much... soon we have a weaker trof that is supposed to catch him.

How do you catch a Cat 4 Hurricane that really might be a Cat 5 for lack of recon in when it was at it's strongest???

Good question...

Keep watching...

Besos Bobbi
Ps Don't fall asleep too long or blink with a monster like that barreling west..

Tropical Storm Julia & 150 MPH Hurricane Igor

Just a brief note to say that Julia was officially born tonight, or given a name...however you look at it.

Igor is a monster... strong.... amazing.... massive Category FOUR Hurricane that is five mph short of a Category FIVE and most likely IS a Category Five but they are going to wait longer... to see what happens over night and what's five mph anyway?

They had to name Julia before the next BIG wave comes off and gets a name and so that they could put up Tropical Storm warnings for the Cape Verde Islands... go figure..

Right now all the talk is on recurve for Igor...

Do I believe it?

Not yet.

Know why?

Because so far nothing has tugged him north and tho he is forecasted to move west he is going just south of due west... similar to Earl who was hell bent in going further west than the forecast. Would love to see him curve... just don't see it. There is enough north of him now that he should be feeling a tug to the wnw at least and in stead he is going just south of due west...

So... going to have to wait a few days to see for sure that he catches his ride out into the big Blue North Atlantic...

More tomorrow... just something to think on...

Sweet Tropical Dreams.. Bobbi

Takes Two to Tango... Monster Cat 4 Igor and the TD behind it..

The reason I write that is .... it is true. Without two people there is just one person dancing alone.

Some people say that the Depression behind Igor will become a hurricane and there could possibly be some Fujiwara action that could affect the lead storm's path ... which would be Igor.

The NHC who has become frustrated it seems between the mispronunciation of the name Igor (eeegor) and the fact that they did not properly forecast his extreme rapid intensification is now putting out the grammatical way to say his name so... passing it along. EEEEEgor.

My concern is that we need to get intensification forecasting down more better than we have it down now. Track is fairly easy, you run the models, you average them and you give it your best shot. Intensity forecasting remains the Holy Grail of forecasters.

Example... what if Igor (not eyegore) were to have gone from Cat 2 to Cat 4 in less than six hours less than 60 miles off shore of say West Palm Beach? Not so funny... easy to watch and ooh and ahh from a safe distance and Igor is so far, far away right now that it's almost like it doesn't exist in our world. We can actually pretend that he and his sister storm behind him are a figment of our overactive imagination. Nope..they are out there somewhere like JAWS and the Easter Bunny with overly, melodramatic music and annoying hippity hoppity energy. Like that really annoying book Sam something from Dr. Seuss... sorreee I was never a Dr. Seuss fan, a few books are okay but even as a child I lacked a good sense of humor it seems. I do like rhymes... just not that many. I also never was much into James Thurber... but I digress.

My point...

Never underestimate a Storm... especially not this storm.

Here it is today...



Where is it going tomorrow??



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Nice model that many like to make fun of but it keeps Igor trapped under a ridge and moving west and when storms have their back to the wall... it's not pretty.

Igor could easily recurve out to sea like Earl did.. maybe it's something about storms with 4 letters in their name?? No Fred here huh? Good.

Personally I think they are too far apart to interact but have read it a few places. I also think Ifor is moving due west or even a drop south of due west... which needs to be watched.

There is a phenomenon called Indian Summer, which I never understood but I am beginning to now. It's like Lucy and the football and Charlie Brown. Every time he goes to kick the ball... she pulls it away. Mother Nature has a way of bringing on the heat after a few weeks of beautiful Fall weather where we get the illusion that summer is gone and we are halfway to Halloween and suddenly the cold fronts go away and the heat comes back... if that happens while Igor or Julia or the K storm shows his ugly face ... then we could have trouble in River City... or some city along the coast.

Takes two to tango... takes two to get petty and childish and two to show a pattern. If another big model shows the same pattern than we need to take it more seriously. Course I like the Canadian... inland flooding could be a problem if the Canadian gets his way... and in the past he has gotten his way, flooding aside and mopped up and moved on with memories of his day in the sun!

Not sure what to think here today so am going to think on it tomorrow.

It's a woman's prerogative in the South and I am as Southern as it gets. So call me Scarlett today or make up some fake name for a board somewhere if that is your game and I'll deal with it tomorrow.

Today...the Miami Dolphins WON their game opener against the Buffalo Bills... makes me happy, floats my boat...

Bastardi believes he will stay further to the south and miss the first trof. Back when we were playing footsies with Earl he was very stubborn on it not doing so yet this time he is hesitant to sing the same song. Why? For one reason he brings up the 63/64 seasons which I have been watching... a pattern with storms.

I'm not convinced that the area in the Carib will go easily into the night.

But, hard to watch anything right now other than the big, beautiful, monster storm Igor which is indeed a monster... beautiful and so far away...where he belongs.



Interesting movie... Coco and Igor... take a look at the trailers... and remember it takes two to have an obsession or a dance

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xh719Kzeec

And, we are all ... of course...obsessed by Igor right now...

The leaves are turning to yellow, one by one, here and there... cool air is settling in at night, air is moving again but one day soon it will stop and it will be Indian Summer and when that happens...if a Monster Storm is lingering too close to shore.... it's anyone's guess what will or won't happen.

As for me... am obsessing on football today and going to paint my toes... as soon as I figure out what color to paint them...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJ7JbHNMkZA

Che and Evita never danced the waltz... not that we know of... many things never happened and many things never will even if we obsess on them.



And, I won't be singing Rainy Days and Mondays tomorrow... because tomorrow will be a new day!

For Igor...for me... for you... only time will tell where Igor goes and that time is down the road... not today.

Easy money is Igor staying out to sea... swimming with the fishies... personally am not ready to sound the all clear...

Besos Bobbi... back to football :)

Tropical Storm Igor Forms, Gaston is Gaston.. ... .. Inland Flooding from Hermine

Tropical Storm Igor has formed in the Far Atlantic and is going to move west... west towards either a date with Central America or a retread of the Earl Track...or it is possible that it could recurve further west but not going to make my brother happy and say Florida even though it would make him smile.

Seriously... it approaches the Leeward Islands and then we will see what we will see. For the time being he is westbound.

Gaston is Gaston.. like that constantly annoying child who disturbs the class yet is not quite bad enough for the teacher to expel... just suspend frequently.



And...sadly Hermine IS doing the Inland Flooding that I expected her to do and people have already died in Texas because of it. There is not enough early warning and discussion on this danger and somehow it MUST change. The National Hurricane Center is SEXY it seems and the National Weather Service is NOT. The NHC coverage of which beach gets a storm gets high media attention... the NWS weather discussion is buried somewhere behind want ads and OP Eds. Time and time again we have some system like this who is a real wash out from the point of landfall and a BIG WASH OUT inland that floods homes, roads and washes cars off of roads with people still in them.. This needs to change. They go somewhere after landfall people...deal with it. So..today it's doing Oklahoma after doing Texas ..and neither needs more rain...and will continue moving inland with heavy rain.

Ironically there may be more damage from Hermine in dollar amounts in the US than from Earl with all of his associated media hype.

As for me.. I'm taking the next few days off for the Jewish High Holy Days. That means I'll have friends over, we will eat sweet, delicious food and talk politics, weather and life. I'll be back Saturday night and we will see where Mr. Igor is then...by then he should be threatening something somewhere unless he follows old Uncle Earl out to sea.

From my house to yours... Happy Jewish New Year! May this usher in a year of peace and love and happiness...and creative productivity.



Note..doesn't my Upside Down Apple Noodle Pudding look a little like a Cane ;)



Ps... my brother just called to let me know that the Sun Sentinel JUST texted him BREAKING NEWS ...and I quote.. "MONSTER IGOR FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC" well well..seems the hype machine is alive and well ;)

Tropics Labor Day Weekend...No Big Storms... Go Out and Play :)

With the exception of a fast forming tropical storm down in the Gulf that is debating on whether to go to Texas or Mexico there is not much out there and no excuse for you to be here reading this blog. Go out...have fun...take a drive, go for a walk, have a talk with someone you love or are out of touch with and lie on the grass and look up at the sky and enjoy the world.

Not going to blog much here on Gaston, as the NHC seems to have that one covered and it's Bill Read's favorite type of storm to worry on. Those that form fast, close in to land and make a bee line for land with little warning. If it intensifies much or stays out over water longer I'll write more. The rain from Gaston though should make it's way up through the heartland of the country and hopefully not add to any flooding problems as many areas in the heartland have had a problem with flooding this year. Some places can use the rain, others cannot. Headline below from the NHC's morning wake up call says it all:

DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC

Track below:




HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...

Gaston is still trying to get his act back together. As he can threaten a lot of places if he does, he still needs to be watched. Any storm that lingers around and refuses to die is often the storm you never forget. He will either continue limping west towards Central America or he will develop and do something funky and memorable (think Katrina, Andrew) or he will never amount to much and we will see this name again one day. But, since he is not into an early recurvature I would continue to watch him and check back in tonight after a really nice Labor Day and check out where he is... don't got much else to do tropically speaking unless you live along the Tex-Mex border.



And, lastly.... there is a beautiful wave exiting Africa that should become the I storm and I like that wave... but it's so far away and no way in hell am I am posting a Carpenters Tune here so just remember I said... it's a beautiful wave.

Go out and play...have a great Labor Day. As for me... am shopping, possibly cooking, getting ready for the Jewish New Year and it's assorted guests and events. Looking forward to a few quiet days to rest and spend with friends and family or just lying in my bed, staring up at the sky out the window and thinking on life...or not thinking..

Go out and play... find a cute place that does brunch or lunch or make a BBQ.

Besos Bobbi ;)
Ps Look how fast Hermine formed and look at my beautiful I wave ....

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Earl on 75.. going north.... should begin a turn...

Sort of going straight up 75...should start listing to the right. Front really bearing down, sitting here watching the colorful drama...

Wild loop.... play it to wild thing.... for a forever friend...

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=4km&chnl=wv&domain=asb&size=large&period=720&incr=15
&rr=900&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off



Should... will see.. hope so.... a producer slash director told me once never say "should" so I save it for those BIG shoulds lol :)

besos bobbi

Earl Mid-Day on a Cloudy Day in NC

Some nice pics of the clouds overhead, from down below looking up at Earl's cloud shield. Very low and VERY VERY bright... almost hurts your eyes to look up at them. Why? I don't know, must be some special effect but they are not your normal low, clouds hanging around.

Wind picks up here and there and rain is apparent on radar...they said we most likely wouldn't get any rain, just light winds. Will see...





Now they are saying "slight chance of a rain shower"



I want rain..
I want to go to the beach...
I'm here watching, would love to be at the beach..
Can't always go play in the rain... maybe the rain will come to me...