Good Morning Category 4 JULIA.... Igor and Karl

Full house here at the old Hurricane Corral and a late sprinting surpriser is the very beautiful and very intense Julia.

Boy, things can sure change fast in the tropics...

I went to bed wondering if Julia would really fade away before achieving any real fame and I wake up to find she just might be one for the record books. This may be the furthest EAST that a Category Four storm has ever formed since we have been keeping records. And, I wonder.... how the heck did the NHC not see that one coming. Of course I know the reason... one part good old "show me the proof" scientific skepticism and one part "the models never saw it coming" ...

So.... although the NHC deserves an A- for their tracks this season so far ...got to give them a real D for intensity forecasting as they missed the rapid intensification of Igor and Earl...though not to the degree that they did with Julia. This needs to be fixed.... it's a real problem, something we need to get as they say in the Carolinas "more better" so....

You wonder why I care so much? I mean they are all so far out to sea and they are ALL going to Bermuda so why worry?

Because as the judge in my divorce said ... so very appropriately... "SOMETHING CHANGED" and SOMETHING happened and this coming hurricane season may show a change in the tracks as they shift from Cape Verde storms curving out to sea to a strong Cane curving north and east up out of the Caribbean. At some point, some storm is going to form down there and catch a front north in the wrong direction and do some serious damage to some city along the Gulf Coast or even possibly the SE Coast. AND... WHEN ... not IF...that happens we have to have the intensity right because we don't need another Charlie happening in 2010 when the tracks are so good but the intensity forecasts still seem wanting....

So ...for now smile and wave at far away Julia and watch Karl form into a Hurricane and do his Tex/Mex thing and don't forget Igor who I really think WAS a Category Five and he got robbed on that one but hey... he's got time to reintensify before doing Bermuda.

Why worry?

1... Years back I did a study on Florida rainfall and years when South Florida got slammed in October... big, wet, juicy storms that slammed into South Florida. I spoke to Jim Lushine and went over things with him... he said his Dry May theories mostly supported those BIG Cape Verde Canes out of the East around a strong High. But, that indeed ....that did not take into account years like IRENE when we had record rainfall and then...we got more as the storms formed to the south and looked for the weakness in the game that was hanging directly over South Florida... You remember IRENE... that's the one that the NHC perfectly predicted the path of and then the weather center went AWOL and drenched Miami while Jim Cantore stood ankle deep in pretty water in Naples waiting for the weather...

2... Models do show the possibility of something forming down there in the long range

3... One part instinct and one part being smart and knowledgeable about hurricane history.

So...don't think they will all get away.... just because the ones doing Bermuda have frequent flyer miles they are using up on Air Bermuda.

SOMETHING WILL CHANGE... take it to the bank!!

It's only half past Seven...but I don't care... It's 5 o' Clock somewhere... Yup, listening to Jimmy Buffett Live at Fenway Park. It's a 3 CD Prize that I found USED at the music store (thank you) and I figure it's perfect for a day with 3 Storms on the map to track.

Gotta go... dance/stretch class begins in 7 minutes...

Keep watching.... I know I am....

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtPiBiMa0TU