Father Forgive me for what I am about to do :)

Okay...free form thought time.

Its just you and me and the computer. My friends went to bed. My kids are tucked quietly in bed asleep or pretending really good. I can hear the fan blowing and it feels good. The AC is turned down a bit. I got cold.

I turned off the TV, will forego this troical update. All the local weather voices have spoken. The weather radio is even quiet.

I cannot finish the Creamy Chocolate Slim Fast (low carb) no matter how much I try. Is THAT how it works?? You just can't bare to take another sip so you lose weight? lol Nah.. usually I like it. Just not in the mood. Only 6 carbs and 20 protein. Worked late and too tired to think on chewing lol.

Oh haha..aren't I in a good mood?

So.............what do I think?
Okay...this is it.
Honest and open here online.

I don't want to die.
I don't want any of my kids to die.
I don't want to lose my house or my belongings.
I just got the bedroom decorated the way I want after all the construction.
Finally there is order after a summer of demolition and rebuilding of my house.
Honey Maple Cabinets, Blue Pearl Granite counters.
Even the backsplash is finished.
No...don't want a direct hit now.

My kids are split over where to go if we have a direct hit.
Some side with "Uncle Ronnie" others would go with me to my best friend Sharon.
All within a few blocks away so... can decide later.
Tropical Storm or Cat 1.. even weak2 will stay (unless my kids leave...)
Have bars on windows, tinting covering that provides weak weak protection but should be enough in a 1. Sigh...no shutters. I'm a single mom.. just bought school supplies, paid for camp and got shoes at payless for the kids. Gee...storm shutters weren't in my budget.

I don't want everything to be a mess. It was a mess after Andrew.
Piles of junk, debris and dead trees cut and put out onto the streets piled high like a fortress.
Took forever for them to put up street lights again..got used to the little stop signs.
Don't want to live in Miami without electric...been there, done that.. worse part..no fan!!

Like my job. Love my job in ways. Don't want the library to go whoosh in the night.
Then again I could sub.

I could move to Key West ...if its still there :(

Could move in with Dina in NY in her basement, start over.
Maybe my ex will get his own apt and I could send kids or even move in.. he always promises to take me to a play. We are friends. How nice. Good friends. As annoying as he was about the weather channel and the weather radio would rather have him here than be alone. He's good in emergencies. Well...so am I. He's stronger. lol .. Just good friends.

Emailed an old boyfriend. His wife didnt handle Andrew well.. told him to take her away for Labor Day weekend.

Don't want my whole world to fall apart or come crashing in.

Want to live. Have someone I care about who is out there somewhere and would like to spend more time with :) Well... as another old boyfriend says "shame the devil" its TRUE.

My life is strange. Stranger than a soap opera. Stranger than any movie that could be written about it. Stranger than leaping tall buildings with a single bound.

My life is a carvinal of people, places, sights and sounds.. Kids coming and going in a nonstop swirl of juvenile youth and vigor. Helpful..wonderful, supportive, adaptive... very understanding. High energy, talkative, artistic, strong on personal magetism and tough as nails. Don't want them to have to go through the direct hit idea.. of a Cat 4. No....no...no.

I want the hurricane to turn..off shore. Real close but offshore. Close enough to get some good pics (I do photography in storms) and to hear the wind..see some rain.. be blessed enough that I can thank God and appreciate what I have more. Not have it go places where people can get hurt.

I don't want to decide whether to go to Ronnies or Sharons. Last time (georges) I went to Sharon. Then again last time had the older kids who said they were going to another friends house, came back..broke in, I had to call the police to get them to move... leave... bad time in my life. Wasn't pretty then. Older kids were tough..younger ones are workable, easy.

So...where do I go from here? This isn't where I intended to be.

I just keep going. Keep functioning. Keep believing in a way this storm will avoid death and destruction on the Friday night nightly news.

Way back when I said this summer would be the summer of change.
I was right.
It has been.
I've seen walls knocked down.. things rearranged, retiled, repainted.. changed.

I've seen things I never thought I would see and done things I never thought I would do. And, I want MORE.

Why does everything have to be so complicated?

Smiling.

I remember the night before Andrew. We had done all we could do. We lived on Miami Beach in an old 1926 wood frame stucco house. Dade County Pine..tougher than concrete. And, my exhusband and I who were married then... left the kids at home and went for a long drive around South Beach.. way after midnight. Like memorizing the way it looked one last time before we thought it would be blown away by storm surge. We were wrong. We were lucky. My beautiful SW Miami that I grew up in was amost blown away...off the map. But, I'll never forget the feel of driving around a boarded up city waiting for demolition in less than 24 hours.

Sharon and I went to the beach. We said we were going to Publix one last time and so we did..sort of afterwards or Walgreens. But we drove over to the boardwalk around 35th Street and Collins and stood there watching the storm surge while my daughter Miriam who was five ran around with her arms spread wide making circles and sounding like a plane about to land. The ocean was wild. People were walking from Collins to the bus stop on 41st Street where the buses would take them to the mainland ...same parking lot they use for Dolphin drive and ride buses. It looked like the Fall of Saigon on Miami Beach as people streamed across the bridge on foot carrying pillows and sheets from the hotels and apartments. We stayed. Thats another story. Heard the ocean pounding in at the height of the storm over the screech of the wind. Stupid or foolish or lucky??? My friends house in Kendall got destroyed in the storm. We were always going to go there if we left the beach. Providence we didn't. No..thats in Rhode Island.

Anyway...

I have a color print out of the August 25th run of the GFS model.. it was like days out. Maybe 13. Friends sent it to me to tease me. I printed it. On a whim. Never did that before. Going to see how close it came that far out.

Tonight the models flip flopped back to the west. Duh.. Well its moving fast to the west/wnw which means it keeps getting further west.

Somewhere I keep thinking of Billy Wagner ..what will he do? How legitimate is it for the storm to go through the straits? Possible.

The ULL moved west to wsw all day.

Told Hurric this morning I HATE that ULL.

Helps pull storm west, ridge fills in behind it... dragging the ridge as it disapeers west into the Gulf.

Billy Wagner has to decide real soon whether to evacuate the keys just in case..at least non residents.

Tough call. Especially since the door is narrowing on a Carolinas storm.

Will it be like Floyd?
Think during Floyd I could see what the NHC was talking about with that curve but today ..they don't have it curving do they? Turning in up the coast.

Will it be up the coast?

Or slam into the coast?

Now hearing talk of the storm going into the Gulf.
Gee only one way it can get into the gulf......

FSU ensemble says South Florida it seems...its secretive, guess its in morse code but Avila did say that. Thank you Lex. Wanted to know all day what it said.

So............

Miami?
WPB?
Cape Canaveral?
Through the straits?
Miraculous turn off shore?

I said days ago...days and days ago. If it doesnt go north into Ga/Sc..would be WPB/Melbourne.

Going to stick with it...but hope it doesnt come in to the south of forecast like so many this year have...

Help.

Really help.

Really, really help.

Going to put on the WXR radio a bit. Clear off my bed. Set my cell phone for alarm to wake up the kids. Close my eyes and dream... dream of all the things I'd like to do with someone special if I make it safely through the storm.. and all the other storms going on in our emotional lives and world and wierdness that is my patchwork quilt of a life.

Not up to Buffett. Afraid Willie Nelson will do me in.
Just going to listen to the wxr radio... or turn it off and fall asleep.

To sleep.. perchance to dream.

Yes... a Leap of Faith.. but that is another old boyfriend..one who wasnt really a boyfriend but a boy friend, sure somewhere out there he is praying his heart out for a miracle to save us all from the storm. He loves Florida too.

Nite, Lois.. Amy... Bracha... Bobbi

Barbara, Patron saint of storms.

More tips for Mothers facing Hurricane Frances

More advice:

Do not tell the kids too early that "we might have a storm" they will no matter what religion they were raised in start trying to think of the words to Ave Maria and or pray to the Gods of Hurricanes to get a CAT 5. Do not tell them "we might have a storm" unless you have a good answer as to where you will go after your house is destroyed. Kids are very inquisitive.

Do NOT use the Hurricane as an excuse to go off your diet. You have worked hard to cut down on one of the following:
carbs
fats
protein
sugar
all of the above

Do NOT decide the world is ending and eat a box of Twinkies. The storm could turn and you will end up angry, upset, annoyed with yourself and eat another box of twinkies.

This leads me to another thing..BUY THE SNACKS YOU HATE THE MOST.

Do not let your tastes guide you. No Chocolate Chip cookies.. no Sandwich cremes. Choose those key lime/strawberry sandwhich cremes the kids think are so cool and you think look like ...well forget what you think they look like...buy what you hate. Let this be your guide. If you are going to fill the house with junk food... let it be food you hate and won't be tempted to eat.

Do NOT let your spouse fill the fish tank with all the water you bought for Frances because there is a developing wave behind it. My brother did this. His wife is NOT amused.

Do the following NOW:
Check all the windows in your house to make sure they lock.Remove things that are valuable and put them somewhere you pray is safe.

Figure out where you will make your stand and hunker down. Away from windows, open streets, preferably near a bathroom.. in a hallway, small bedroom, enclosed closet or bath.

Make sure you have any medical supplies.

Make sure you have extra formula or dog food ... sorry but they go together when it comes to stock piling things.

Don't scare the kids. Don't excite the kids. Depending on if they want the storm. IF they want it remind them their collection of games for their X Box will be no longer usable.

If you have a rubbermaid container... put valuable papers in it.

If you need "chill pills" kava kava or some sort of mind numbing drug to get you through the waiting for the storm to come with kids who are home ..out of school..cooped up waiting. Use them but sparingly.

If you are truly alone.. a single mother ..and you don't have big kids who will boss you around and think they know better in the guise of helping. Think of spending the storm with another close friend... single parent as its better to have two adults in a house than only one.

Do not be afraid to go to shelter..check out when they open (they fill up) and what you can or can't take with you. Take battery operated toys for kids to be busy with.. it cannot be repeated enough. IF you don't have battery operated toys.. buy a cheap radio, let them listen to whatever music they want as long as they don't say to you "WHEN ARE WE GETTING THE STORM"

Make sure you have money on you. IN YOUR POCKET.. not somewhere in the house. ATMs do not work without electric and they can empty out before you get there.

Take pictures of the house for insurance purposes and your own memory ... in case it goes whoosh.

Prayer works.Good thoughts work.Do a good deed for a friend in need.Think positive thoughts and realize the odds your particular abode will actually get the eye of the storm vs the whole cone.Do not stare at the storm on radar/sats.. it can hypnotize you.

Remember everyone around you is in the same boat and shit happens everywhere. Blizzards, Earthquakes, Floods, Volcanoes, UFOs not to mention the possibility that the Canary Islands will collapse into the ocean causing a tidal wave that might wash away Washington. Everyone has their day in the sun and everyone has their day of disaster. It's part of life. So are storms. We all go through them.. in one way or the other.

If you family is alive and well and survives the storm..everything else can be rebuilt and you can move and you can always go to therapy for post traumatic stress syndrome.
Focus on what you can do and not the worst that can happen.Prepare for the worse..hope for the best.

Stay on your diet. Be Calm. Share your problems with a friend.

Buy batteries!Charge your cell phone before the storm. Relatives from all over the world will call you to tell you "Youre getting the storm"

And..remember. How you face a disaster is how you teach your child to deal with disasters later in life. If you teach them to prepare, to take them seriously, to watch the news and not go by rumors.. take precautions and be brave in the face of disaster... so will they when they are older and you can't be there to walk them through it and hold their hand.

Lastly.. if you wear make up.. make sure to put it on, face the world with a smile and believe in miracles. Believe in the odds being on your side and take a deep breath and don't be afraid. And, if you are.. call your best friend. Chances are she is dying to talk to you too.

bobbi ...south of the suspected track but inside the cone.

Hurricane Frances: Tips for Mothers in a Storm

Hi there.

I've thought on this a bit and wondered what I could add to what has to be every piece of advice online. And, I've decided the following.

No one round here knows more about having children and going through a storm than me. Experience wise... I have a lot of kids. More than half a dozen okay? Went through Andrew with a housefull. So this is my advice to all you mothers.. single or married and that goes for single fathers who have custody of a house of kids who are the MOM of the house.

Buy Batteries.
Lots of batteries.
Tons of batteries.

I say this for many reasons. Gameboy. Sony walkman. Radios. Weather radios. Anything that will and might keep your child busy during the storm and even after the storm instead of wanting to go outside and look around amid debris.

Mind you talking here about losing power and having low end hurricane winds in your area because if you have a direct hit your batteries will be far away in some one else's yard.

Nothing makes a child of any age feel more secure than holding some hand held battery operated toy and staring obsessively at it. Nothing will make you happier or calmer than to have your kids occupied and busy so you can think clearer, not lose your patience or mental health. Buy batteries.

Also..if you have a small TV and you lose power..it will be your link to the world (and the world of your neighbors who don't) so buy batteries.
***

Flashlights:
Buy the small but good flashlights that come with their own batteries. Make sure they are not old from five years ago but that they work. Try one and keep the rest in a package. Your kids will feel safer and you will be happier knowing they have a small flashlight on them if the lights go out. A window could break and they will have taken off their sneakers even though you told them to keep their shoes on and get hurt. Or.........they will knock over there favorite breakable trinket in the dark looking for their flashlight. See above. Keep flashlights on them at all times. Around their neck isnt a bad idea.. but watch that they don't strangle on them. So much for a mother to worry on.

Note: you really dont want them walking around with candles do you? Buy flashlights, buy batteries.

****

Clothes: Tell the kids to keep their clothes on. Keep their shoes on. Get them to clean up the house with the excuse that the floor "might" flood and they will lose their belongings. This may be one of the best shots you have of getting them to clean their rooms.
Trust me in emergencies in the dark you want them to have their clothes on for all emergencies. Such as moving around the house, to higher ground or the neighbors house.

****

Snacks: Be sneaky. Keep them locked tight for a day or two in your best friends car trunk or hide them well. Buy portions if you can afford. Better to break up a drink pack in the middle of the night to give a kid an apple juice than to try and pour from a super size bottle in the dark with howling winds. Let them keep a drink and a flashlight on them. Pace yourself while screaming "THAT HAS TO LAST YOU THROUGH THE STORM" so explain this frequently to them. They have a limit..some are for after a storm. Do NOT buy tons of chocolate covered raisin snacks. Toilet use after the storm may need to be limited... choose you snacks wisely.

**********

Food:
If you have chicken or ground meat in the freezer. Cook well this week. Let the kids and you feast a bit. Cook some food, freeze it and put it back in the freezer and freeze it. After the storm passes if you are w/o electric you can quickly open the freezer and take out a meatloaf or frozen cooked chicken and let it defrost. Note.. explain in advance to kids about not keeping the door open. Get it yourself..save yourself the hassle and your voice and not scream "KEEP THE DOOR SHUT ....WHAT DID I TELL YOU... WHAT DO YOU MEAN YOU CANT FIND THE MEATLOAF" Better to go get it yourself. You can't get to the gym.. its closed. It's exercise. Rely less on kids for things like that.. let them play with their gameboys ;) (buy batteries)

Freeze bolgna, salami... only spend money on things kids will want. Do not think that because you had a storm they are going to eat smoked kippers of sardines even if they are Cajun style. Yes its handy. No you won't have it. Buy what they will eat.

If your house is not destroyed you can be stuck home with them for a few days and the stores might be closed or ... Donna like.. you could be stuck in the house for few days while a storm slowly slides by nearby enough for you to get harsh weather and lose your electric.

***********
NECESSITIES:
Buy instant coffee. Cold in bottled water you will be glad you have it if the electric goes out.
After Andrew... buy canned soda. Kids would prefer canned coke anytime and so will you.
Buy small drinks and freeze them.. they will stay cold for a while if the electric goes out and your fridge is still in your kitchen standing after the storm.

Buy water in gallons yes but buy some small ones that kids can drink in a storm... and its "theirs" Kids love possessing things. Gives them the semblance of "control"

*************
MEDICINE:
Get all your medicine now. NOW. You don't want to be short of some asthma medicine or allergy medicine or anything you might give a child who has ADD... or even tagamet if you are prone to getting stomach aches when you are under pressure.

**************
BUY PAPER GOODS:
Recycle when the storm is over.
*************

TALK TO YOUR KIDS:
Don't alarm them. Let them help track the storm with you... allows them to feel less afraid and in control. Unless they understand weather too well in which case tell them "things can change a lot" over the next few days.. say this til you run out of days.

****************

DIAPERS: DUH, Buy three times what you need.

****************
TAMPONS: Ever notice how a teen age girl will never tell you she needs til she is out?
****************

BABY WIPES: They are not just for babies. If the water is off..they are your friend ;)

I will continue tonight.

Got to go to work.

Yes I'm worried.

I love my house, my newly decorated bedroom, my really beautiful kitchen... just got done with a lot of updating round here. Love the kids and don't want to see their school projects blown to kingdom come. Want them all to be safe... hoping it turns off shore like I predicted earlier .. like the 1899 storm. But... my confidence is not real high.. have a bad feeling on this. Think we are all in denial here and don't want to deal with reality that it could stay w-wnw for a long time and the weakness can close and snap shut faster than the jaws of an alligator and someone in Florida gets a dead on Cat 4/5.

Buy batteries!
And... a hand operated can opener!

Love ya all... good luck.
Hope what I wrote helps.
Bobbi

Try NOT watching the dotted line..

Try not thinking of Pink Elephants.
Try not thinking of your first love.
Try telling Lot's wife not to look back.
Try jumping out of a plane and not hearing some small voice say "Im gonna die"
Try not swimming with sharks and not thinking you will get eaten for dessert.
Try not looking at the setting moon one more time.
Try not eating the double chocolate dip ice cream in the fridge.
Try buying Phish ice cream and eating Key Lime when you need chocolate.
Try not thinking about the man you love who is far away.
Try not thinking about sex.
Try not wishing it was Friday and your work week was over.
Try not remembering Andrew, Floyd or Hugo.
Try not putting on Bryan Norcross with Frances out there.
Try not watching the Tropical Update.
Try not obsessing over your favorite football team two weeks before the season.
Try not looking at the dotted line if its coming near your house this weekend.

Of course in this case... the cone/dotted line bends a bit away from Miami so I'd like to ask just once in this case..

Can I PLEASE watch the dotted line??

Not peeking in Miami, wishing I was in Key West right now

Love you all.. Bobbi

Hurricane Frances Turns West

Well...big deep breath...

With Hurricane Frances currently moving west it may indeed come in south of the famed 20/60 line that many believe is where a storm has to be to hit South Florida.

Then again..it can turn around 77 or 78 and move nnw up towards Ga/SC border like many think it will.

Course GFS and UKMet like South Florida and AVN. Waiting to see if they change their tune soon.

So sitting here watching a cone that has Miami inside the cone I am reminded what they have been saying over and over since Charley.. anywhere inside that cone.

That by the way is like trying not to think PINK ELEPHANTS ...and trying not to look at the dotted line.

I'll post again later in the day.

I want to say now that so far NHC has been very very on the money.

They predicted this turn west. I think it came a drop earlier but I'm not sure.

For that matter...think Gaston moved inland faster than expected.

There is arguing on whether a TD is forming to the left of Gaston..not sure. But either way think it will move west faster after Gaston ...or NW.

I really think it will move west...at times wnw... then wnw and somewhere around 77.5 or even 78 turn nnw. Will it be enough to clear WPB..don't know. Will see.

That being said...could come barreling across the Keys or move NW ... its just too soon to tell.

Far far away.

Reminds me though of that song from the Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour.

Did you ever have to make up your mind?
Did you ever have to finally decide?

Glad I'm the one writing humor and first hand human interest and not making the decisions at the NHC because its a very complicated flow and right now too many models hit Florida to say South Florida will probably be okay because the GFDL that had it hitting Galveston once breaks with the past.

GFS on August 25th had it hitting South Florida. I printed it out.. just in case ...well just in case... I wanted to remember what it looked like. Not happy I had that gut. I don't usually print out forecasts that are like 10 or 11 days out.

Bobbi... sitting within the cone

Historical Tracks

I think its very possible that Frances could follow the 1893 storm track where a storm approaches Florida as it travels around a big high pressure system.. finds a weakness and makes a hard right turn and slams into Ga/SC area. Also a similar storm in 1899 followed the same path. Also..both those years had other similar tracks to this year.

However... Gaston could leave.. that system to her east could disapate and the high over SE US and the Atlantic High could fuse together and spell disaster for Florida... again.

Posted this earlier in online message board...

Basically..it would be very easy for me to wishcast this storm as Andrew 2, the sequel but makes more sense to look at this year.. patterns... all years not just the ones we remember like Donna and make a really good educated decision.

A lot could change between today and tomorrow at this time.. as well as Monday.

Truth is Gaston is building a really nice long tail that is juicing up the atmosphere off the Florida coast and could leave a door way in the high for Frances to follow. Also.. a system on invest to the east of Gaston could further enhance that door opening allowing Frances to do what so many have done before at that location... catch a curve ball up towards the Carolina's away from Florida.

Then again.. steering currents could kick in and grab Gaston and scoot him off into the Atlantic allowing the ridge to fuse together with a high over the East Coast ..making the mother of all ridges since Andrew and its bye bye door and we in South Florida could pray for front to appear suddenly dues ex machina like and save our lucky butts.

Ummmmm don't know.. can't say.
I would believe such a turn somewhere is more likely than not.

Also... as of 11pm.. NHC slowed the track down. To me that would mean a possible continued weakening of steering currents in which case.. Gaston is not in a rush to leave. Very messy sats right now especially on the water vapor.

So...here's my post.
No songs tonight but if I had one it would be whimsically romantic.. maybe some silly 80s song but I don't want to talk about my personal life or anything else tonight other than weather.

On a personal family note though my son Shuky who is very good at forecasting and reading all satellite imagery said on Friday that so far Frances has been following the NHC tracks like a... ummmmm *&(!ing robot. Seems to have a lot of faith in NHC on this one. Think they did a good job too. He should be in meteorology school.. he really should. But, he's doing his thing.. and he's young and I respect that and can't say I wouldn't and didn't do what he's doing when I was his age. He has the brains for the math and science... I can dissect Fitzgerald and Tennessee Williams as well as he can and has watched forensic types dissect a body... a scientific mind.

Nite everyone... watching Gaston...OH WOW... he's moving at 5mph finally... fast get out of his way. sigh..

********************
Spent a good part of the day going over old storm tracks from a great book a good friend sent me. Historical Climo Series.

As wonderful as playing with unisys online (and others) its not the same as a book you can flip back and forth and absorb the info better. I think.. good book, good friend.

And...this is what I have come up with...
Following certain parameters...
Finding years with storm tracks through the S Carib.
Finding years with a hit on Florida west coast.
Finding years with sw to ne oriented hits on S. Carolina/Ga region.

Finding storms in the current area (or extrapolated might have been before sat imagery)This is what I find most interesting.

1871... storm in late August..Comes in through the islands and makes a nw curve up over... into GA.That year features two NW florida hits but higher up...

1885... storm shows that it formed north of PR but there is no way of knowing if it started earlier. Shows a ridge in place and storm takes a sudden turn up and off and barely touching the Florida coast and coast into South Carolina.That year had a storm come across Cuba into the Tampa/W Coast area as well as several storms fly through Ga on their way back out to the Atlantic from the Gulf. Though we didn't have much of a Gulf season and that one did.

1893... a Year no one wants to repeat. Ever especially in Ga/SC.A storm going NW through Florida out thru GA to ocean and a storm from a similar place following similar projected path but turning in the Bahamas up the Florida coast and slamming into Ga/Sc region. Bad storm. Killed a lot of people. Infamous in that region. Acutually had two similar storm paths both hitting SC after heading towards Florida with a hard right turn.

1899...Storm went through the islands... moved up David like but went into South Carolina after a strong hard right turn. Also fetured a storm going through W Florida.

1937....Storm comes towards Florida from SE at a cord close to where Frances could be tomorrow or the next day. Moves around a ridge and ends up pulling nnw up towards just north of the Cape.. say Daytona.. That year featured a storm moving across FL after a hit near Tampa.

1960... Donna.. any "up and over the island" track reminds us of Donna.

1964....Dora... Dora came in higher than Frances is but did take a path similar if a high builds in.. And features Cleo that took a path lower and came up from a much lower position than where Frances is so..discounting but mentioning. More concerned on Dora track though that is very different from current NHC thinking so..not really a big possibility.

All in all 1899 and 1893 are the two years that I think most reflect this year.

There are many years where a storm threatened from a similar place but I tried to choose years which had tracks that I thought this storm is and could continue following with similar other aspects.

Personally.. think it makes a hard right just before South Florida.. closer than Floyd. Worry more on say WPB to Melbourne in that turn but think its very possible a track similar to the infamous 1893 storm could occur.Take care... I wish everyone here lots of luck.. we'll all need it. Bobbi.... thank you Howie :)

Kids collecting cans and school supplies for Victims of Charley

My daughter Rivky came home from North Miami Beach Middle School yesterday and told me that her civics teacher started a project to collect 2 cans of food (or any perishable) for victims of Charley. She said he made a deal with them that if they hit their goal they could shave his head. I haven't checked..but imagine he has a good head of hair there..

He's talked to them nonstop about the importance of helping out.. They began bringing things in.. she brought in some canned Tuna. Didn't ask me ...knew we had extra and it was a good choice.

Today she came in excited that her friend put a sign up in her apt building about the project and people began giving foods to her to take. Some lady gave her $20 and told her to go to Target and buy clothes to send. Tonight on the radio she heard a story about a teacher in a local middle school started a project that has spread to other schools and inspired them to have their students bring in 2 cans of perishable foods... and on and on it goes. Funny how when you go to help someone it snowballs.

But the best legacy he will leave these kids.. the kids who were born the year of Andrew or like my daughter was a 6 month old baby during Andrew..is the thought that they can make a difference in their world.. their village.

My son Zalmy came home from Elementary school yesterday with the news that they were going to help collect school supplies for Sallie Jones Elementary School in Punta Gorda. A present from Greynolds Park Elementary in Miami. I imagine there is some connection between someone in Greynolds and Sallie Jones. Maybe there is more to this going on and other schools have been matched but I doubt it. My son goes to a great school. Today he came home excited with a letter to the parents. Each class was assigned a specific school supply. The 5th grade, his class, was given the task of bringing in backpacks. This I think is because they were all given presents this year because they became an A school on the FCAT. Each year after a great FCAT result the 5th grade gets a prize for helping to raise up the grade. Last year tee shirts.. this year backpacks with the thank you for the award on them. So.. imagine they figure that all those parents who went out and bought backpacks for their kids not knowing they would come home with backpacks... (smile parents) ... have extra backpacks to send to Sallie Mae.

The kids are excited. They are seriously happy to be involved. They are young but they live with stories of Andrew and they respect hurricanes. And, they are being taught the gift of giving and helping others.

The tuna my daughter took to school was extra tuna. She knew we had extra.

She didn't know why.

A few days before Charley when Miami was in the cone... I bought extra tuna. Afraid we would lose power in a strong band that got too close I bought some extra tuna.

So..............the tuna I bought for Charley goes to the victims of Charley.

How perfect is that?

Karma as we call it... Synchonicity... Just Perfect.

And... the kids came in tonight to see what was happening with Frances.

As my son said, "he likes to follow hurricanes" and watches carefully.

Rivky is excited she shaved her legs for the first time and is thinking on whether she wants to try out for cheerleaders or debate. She's in drama already.

Kids... Zalmy is not the first child I have who comes in to see whats happening on the tropical update.

Dina in NY sat through a whole night of Jim Cantore doing Charley. She doesn't have cable. She lives on her own in Brooklyn.. a big girl.. young woman. She went to a friends house who does have cable so she could watch Jim Cantore doing Charley.

They are my kids.. can't lose them in a crowd.

And...we are watching Frances carefully.

Frances for Florida??? Can we go there?
Hmmmm

Been real worried that we would have an early Indian Summer in the US and that would allow a storm to make landfall in late August/Early September... could that storm be Frances?

Stay tuned

Bobbi ..safe for now from the Indian Summer Cane.

Top Ten List ... Why "The Wave" hasn't moved

Reprinted from HurricaneCity.com

explanation... You see we have this beautiful wave...gorgeous and well developed for a wave, its actually over developed for a wave. If this was Texas and we were barbequing it would be Blackened Wave... but we are waiting for the NHC to make it official..so its just a wave.

So...posting this because its cute...m y thoughts... not much else I would stop to say today except that I'm in a good mood and this is my blog.. I'll blog it however I want. If I want it to be a diary.. its a diary. If I want it to be funny... its funny. Etc... Too many rules everywhere else online so... this is mine. My time.. lying here in bed half dressed, going through bills and papers and odds and ends with a package of candles about to be sent out and listening to a beautiful compilation of Jimmy Buffett songs someone I know who loves Jimmy sent me. Beautiful.. great songs...

Have a great day...enjoy the rest.. sometime around October that wave might get her butt off of the Cape Verde Islands.

Til then I'm not wasting away in Margarittaville though a few of my kids are down there today.
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10 Reasons Why the Wave hasn't moved
Posted by bobbistorm on 8/24/2004, 8:47 am
1. No one cut the ropes and its still anchored to the docks ...someone find a axe fast.
2. Got a cheap deal of August travel discounts for a Cape Verde cruise.
3. Mama's still giving it instructions on where to go and what to do once she gets there.
4. Has a crush on the wave behind it, wants to travel in tandem across the sea.
5. Annoyed with the NHC for the way it forecast Charley and is on strike.
6. Watching the Olympics in real time on that side of the Pond.
7. Heard Key West was out of candles and is waiting for them to be resupplied.
8. Waiting for fall when orange, gold and reds will look more in season.
9. Still debating what kind of shoes it will need to impress this board.. ankle straps... Candies... maybe platforms... so hard for a girl to make up her mind.
and number 10...
Doesn't like the name Frances anymore than France does

Norcross gives his view of NHC's job on Charley

Watched an interview with Norcross this morning on his local channel's news show where he was asked to give his opinon on NHC's job predicting Charley's path .... a subject of great controversy within the media.

They showed people in shock after the storm who swore they were misled about the destination of Charley.

I can't comment on the beginning because I missed a few minutes but saw his response. He speaks fast. Faster than me so I couldn't type it out but it was a reiteration of the discussion on the boards about Cone VS track within the cone.

Dotted line up middle of the cone or JUST A CONE

And he as predicted said the NHC and media should stop showing anything but the cone..

You see the CONE is what the NHC predicts but people want points in the path, dots... more certainity so they put out a dotted line. But the dotted line has no higher chance of getting the storm than does a point 25 miles or more to the west or east and in a small strong storm that means a big deal.

For example:
People in Kendall think they are safe because the landfall predicted is for say North Miami Beach. Now let's say the storm is moving 20 miles an hour... and could even accelerate to 25 mph forward motion.

In two hours time the difference in landfalling would be a 50 mile difference.

That means the slightest boggle of the storm would take total devastation anywhere from the upper Keys north to near the Broward County Line.

But the media would have been camped out down in Kendall near landmarks that previously got destroyed and all the reporters would be showing pre storm footage from Matheson Hammock or the old Deering Estate..maybe even Key Biscayne when the beach that might take the storm the worst would be Haulover or even Hallandale just to the north of the eye wall.

How many storms have wobbled a drop just at landfall.. almost ALL.

So...how can we say North Dade vs South Dade or even more so... a wobble that you can't pin point as true movement that starts 4 hours before landfall. Widen that cone from South Broward to Key Largo.

Which is infact why the NHC orders evacuations and preparations more than 24 hours before a Hurricane Warning.

And... if you are lucky, damn lucky...you board up, lose a day of work, find a store open (Dairy Queen or Kmart) in a city that is boarded up and locked down tight for a Hurricane and the storm moves past you ....but you took all the precautions necessary... you can't look back and say "you were blind sided" or that "they said on the News Andrew was going to hit the Miami near downtown"

And...I know because we did that drill during our flirtation with Floyd. There was no where to go... stores were locked up (except for Dairy Queen and Kmart lol) and you could brave the ocean for a peak and get a quick passing soaking shower far from the storm, feel his winds rush through your hair but you could also Thank God that you were spared. And, sit around listening to idiots bitch that the NHC made them lose a day of work and wasted all that time and forced them to spend $200 on junk food and drinks when you should have been understanding the extreme risk we were all under during Floyd..

A storm that was traveling parrallel to the coast.. like Charley but that was much bigger and would have caused disaster on a much larger scale geographically than we saw this season so far...

So...yes.. drop the dotted line.

Go with the Cone.

Give percentages more and explain how much they wobble.

Stop advertising your reporters are in place for the point of where the storm will come ashore.. TWC does this but at least they do send several to cover a storm and therefore I think TWC viewers have a better understanding of "the cone" and take bets of course on who will get it ...Cantore or Morrow.

Sometimes its not the message that is wrong as much as how it is delivered.

Follows is my post from HurricaneCity.com. Thank you Jim for allowing me the ability to be myself and post my long rambling posts. Nice to feel able to fly freely and enjoy friendships online with fellow hobbiests.

.... I'd give a song today but don't want to bother looking for lyrics online.

It would be Don't Rain On My Parade... my favorite song from Funny Girl years ago.. a song I should learn the words to again.. :)

Bobbi...
go on... www.google.com "dont rain on my parade" lyrics lol

giggling, listening to distant thunder...

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http://members.boardhost.com/hurricanecity/msg/18953.html
Norcross on interview on NHC controversy
Posted by Bobbi on 8/22/2004, 11:27 am
Hi.. I just watched an interview locally in Miami with Bryan Norcross where he was asked about the discussion by many in the media that the NHC blew the forecasting of Charley and there by bore responsibility for people being unprepared.

The Tampa call..specifically.

He went into great detail (after they showed segments of people saying how they never saw it coming..etc) and the response went like this but do not hold me to words.. not quoting. Can't type that fast.. he is a fast talker.
They had showed a cone a day or two before that showed every resident within the area that got hit being INSIDE the CONE for landfall. And, they knew within that cone someone would get hit. The odds within the cone are the same from left to right.. so that it doesnt matter where it comes in.. the hurricane doesn't follow a line. There is a line being the center of the cone but they make it clear that the center has no greater odds than the right or left of the cone.
If you take that with Jim's link you know that 2 days before the storm every one in the area hit should have began immediately preparing for a landfalling major storm. I mean.. do you wait for 6 or 12 hours before.. NOOOOO reason we do it ealier is to give people time to prepare.

Even if those people thought they had last minute reprieve there is no way they could have been blindsided.. or clueless or misled by the NHC early on.

Also... he said within the cone there is always wobbling of motion and no way that anyone could tell the exact path ... and since the storm was parallel to the path projected... the danger was higher.

The problem was not the message given but how it was put out.. by the media mostly in that they went with the center line.

On a personal note he did not mention how he was part of that.. as friends called me to tell me he was screaming on live Miami TV that TAMPA better hunker down and that they have to take it seriously.. etc... Though he did say that the media is just the media (meaning him?) and that the final word is the NHC and they showed a cone.

He also said that they publish odds which of course we here live and die on but aren't shown on air that much and he thinks showing the odds would be beneficial.

Also...thinks the dotted line should be eliminated and we should just show a cone.

He also added in the way only Norcross would that most people who die in a storm or who suffer injuries are time and time again to be shown to be doing things they shouldn't be doing and have been warned against doing..
mentioned from past deaths..
a) were driving around in the stormb) staying in a trailer homec) going out smoke a cigarette in the storm
and added not to say that people don't die from horrific things like a tree falling on a house where people are boarded up safely...
very Norcross interview and the person doing the interview on his home channel on a Sunday morning news show did not ask the hard question.. That being does he feel badly for screaming Tampa or ... does he feel it was right seeing as Tampa residents haven't had a cane in so long that he was worried on their level of preparation.

Interesting interview..short.. but guess he votes on the side of the cone..

Of course ...so do I. Think at this point, we all do.
Bobbi

Listening to the Quiet Before the Storm

I haven't written much these last few days.

So many thoughts rolling round in my head and somehow unable for various reasons to really share them with anyone.

Sometimes I talk a blue streak and prattle on and on and then other times... I can be so bottled up and quiet.

Quiet like the Atlantic Ocean storing its secrets up waiting for the next episode of tropical madness... waiting for something to happen again and have everything spin wildly out of control.

Hurricanes you see are a real time experience.

Fluid, changing, evolving and exciting.
They are passionate and intense.
They have their own thoughts and their own designs on the map and landscape of our world. They go where they want to go even though men in little rooms playing on little computers think they understand their every move. They don't.
They only know from past experiences and 100s of years of storms recorded where they "should" go and all the members of the Best Track Team can come close based on the past but each new hurricane is really a new entity.

You set it up with a defined circulation and you drop it down into the atmosphere which is like a river that races across the surface of the earth in wide rivers at various angles that show up on the Water Vapor Loop. They "should" go here... they "should" turn there... but its not set in stone, its the air.. the wind... and it evolves as you watch it, an every changing situation... unfolding, twisting, turning...amazing and beautiful to behold.

Sometimes... something happens and you can throw out the window all of the previous information of "shoulds" and "woulds" and watch what is really happening. Many times.. scientific types think that if they wait it out... calmly and detached sort of..in just another few hours or even six or more.. the storm will do what is expected. It will make the turn, fall apart, intensify and follow the plan.

So many do.

But the really memorable ones like Georges who chugged his way across more Caribbean real estate than is politically possible for most of us kept going west north west despite all forecasts to turn more to the north. Betsy went north and then came back south and danced her way across the Keys and off towards Louisiana. Despite all predictions otherwise.. she refused to catch the trough. Andrew.. a distant relative from the same gene pool refused to catch the trough and danced across South Florida on his way to a Louisiana vacation. Across the same air base in Homestead that another storm in the 40s danced across. And, Camille is the hurricane that sets the bar for so many of us who for the first time really saw the damage a storm surge can do upon the shore. Before we had fancy imagery and could stare down into every little band with the NRL site... we had little Nimbus snapping away voyeuristically at Camille catching it forever and recording it for us to look back at remember.. a beautiful, intense, exciting... very photographic Storm.

We don't own them.
We can't predict their path perfectly.
We can't force them to form and we can't stop them from forming.
They hit us with the passion and intensity of a storm surge washing over us and forever changing the past and the present and the future.

And, we wait through the quiet times like today when nothing is happening and no matter how many times you go online and look.. there is nothing there. An eerie silence where we are lost in our thoughts and we remember the power and awe of a storm named Camille.

I've always loved the unpredictable ones like Betsy.
When I was a little girl... a small little girl who believed in all things being possible I wanted to know why the big bad storm wasn't going to hit us? Were we sure it wasn't going to hit South Florida? Couldn't it turn? Why not? And, I was told lots of reasons about when storms get that far north they HAVE to go north and ... The Miami News or Miami Herald published those great little charts that they used to show in the news... with Betsy tracking off for the Carolinas and the headline read, "Betsy Gone For Good" (takes aim at Carolinas).

After cleaning up from Betsy's victory dance across South Florida... I found a wet, tattered newspaper that read "Betsy Gone For Good" and I'll never forget it. I smiled and victorious ran around the house annoying tired parents with my find.. 'look look they said it was gone for good but it wasn't!" Betsy came back... Into our hearts, minds, memories forever.

The Hurricane Center does the best it can and they get better and better but its a learning process...ongoing. And, very cool scientific types watch from their homes on their laptops writing away on their message boards very sure of themselves. But, things can change and they change fast in a hurricane. Especially a Major Hurricane.

And.. people are like hurricanes or hurricanes are like people.. and our lives are fluid and fast and unpredictable and over before you know it. And, somewhere someone will give you advice and expect you to do what they have decided you will do. You can listen. You can follow the predictable path. Or...like Betsy and Andrew you can decide not to take the trough.

It's very quiet tonight. I'm listening to music in a quiet room without loops looping or TV blaring... and I'm thinking about what I want and where I want to go and with who or not with who and wondering what tomorrow will bring.

Will it bring passion?Will it bring rain?Will it laughterOr a Hurricane?

:)
Bobbi musing in Miami during the quiet time before the next storm that waits in the wings.
Happy Anniversary Camille.Andrew's Anniversary is around the corner..
Waiting...Bobbi

~~~~~~
Where do we go from here
This isn't here we intended to be
We had it all
You believed in meI believed in you
Certainities disapeers
What do we do for our dream to survive?
How do we do keep all our passions alive?
As we used to do
Deep in my heart I'm concealing
Things that I'm longing to say
Scared to confess what I'm feeling
Frightened you'll slip away
You must love me..You must love me..

She had her moments.. she had her choice

Hurricane Charley teaches us to Seize the Day

What can we learn from Hurricane Charley?

We can learn that we need to seize the day... enjoy the way we live and where we want to live and know that some day we will all pay a price, face the devil and deal with disaster.

I've heard more people complain about the "stupid people" who live "down there" and I've had enough. People live where they want to live..where they NEED to live.

Some people need the sunshine and open water more than others. Some need the seasons. Some need snow. Some need flat prairie.

Everywhere has its natural disaster and even those unglamourous places like New Jersey have their own brand of misery day by day that could bore you to death or cause some man who might have made it living in Naples to die of shoveling snow in his driveway while he dreamed of living by the sea in Florida.

I love Key West. One day I may live there. One day I may die there ..while some storm surge covers my island I love from South Beach to Mallory Square.

I hope not. I pray not. But, it could happen and it will be my way to live and my way to die.

Or..I could fall madly in love with someone from somewhere far away and move away with them and fall in love with their home, their land.. because home is where the heart is.. for me anyway.

Short of being "there" my heart is always in Key West.

Life happens.. its not fluid. It changes moment by moment like the path of a hurricane.

Opportunities arise... you meet someone who takes your breath away, you hear a good song or you see a sunrise that inspires you. It's about DOING not dreaming, not thinking, not wishing on a star. It's about daring to live and make your dreams come true and if along the way you suddenly dream a new dream its about seizing the day and going after it with everything you have inside you.

For years I dreamed or didn't dream. I kept dreams deep down inside where no one could see them..not even me. Someone woke those dreams and for a while I remembered them but then... Nothing Happened. Nothing. Just dreams and schemes and circus clowns and a dizzying dazzling array of people appearing but not doing much more than watching and writing and keeping me on hold for several years while I had fun.. talking and laughing and thinking and writing and musing on life and love and the tropics.

Things change.

Once I had a dream.. a vision really. I'd meet someone.. most likely someone I already knew from somewhere (not saying who as its my business) and we'd get married on this little island down in the Keys off of US1.. gulfside I think..and Jimmy Buffett would play with just his guitar like I heard him do years ago and the end would justify the means.

I used to be a big believer in Machivelli. I'm not anymore. But, I was and I thought it would all be allright in the end. But, things change. And, the more they change the more they stay the same.

People play games so long its all they know. Reality doesnt exist ... they make up their own reality and they play and want you to play along on their time. When its good for them, not when its good for you. Because they know whats best.

People played in the Florida sunshine. They had good lives. They deserved them after a lifetime of working hard up north. Someone came along and sold them a dream of sunshine and water out their back door. Of sitting at the end of the day with the one they loved and lived with their whole lives and watching the sun go down into the beautiful waters of the Gulf of Mexico. They were not cheated. Some died happily in their sleep before Charley blew through. And, some lost their mates after a few years there and met other mates who had also become widowed and they found love again in paradise. And, some...happy to be along with their terriers watched the sun go down alone...happy, because some people are happy loners.

Most knew they could get creamed in a storm but either they didn't care and stubbornly took their chances or they were in denial that it could happen. Just as much as I had been in denial for many years that "nothing was going to happen." And, either way I had fun in the sun while waiting for that destiny to never come.

We all live in denial and we all get complacent. Those of us who think more than do.. And, other times we reach out for something we want and go after it. We feel compelled to..So.........lots of people felt compelled to move south where they dreamed of and didn't spend their lives up north whining about the weather, the snow, the ice and some bad marriage where their partner refused to leave some sister or family member and didn't to join them and live in a paradise because usually their partner was not their priority.When you love someone... really love them..THEY are your priority. Whether its the man or the woman who goes along.. someone does.. or you find a way to do both or you WORK at it..you don't complain or dream, you DO.

Destiny isn't something that grabs us...it wakes us up, it winks at us.. it whispers and beckons us forward but if we are too lazy or too afraid or too unable to trust or too scared then that chances passes us by. And, its gone..poof and we live with regrets.

This is not about a bunch of people who were stupid and moved to South Florida and got hit by a storm.It's about too much media screaming Tampa. About denial of local officials who didn't want to scare people off from buying homes and vacationing in Port Charlotte and Sanibel Island.. like Miami..its not a shark unless it walks up onto Biscayne Blvd and bites you ... It's about people wanting to do things their way and living their life their way and the only thing I can say is that... people should pay more attention to the authorities and not think they know it all..never assume... never live in denial that the worse could happen.. or the best could happen.

Play it as it comes... and when you meet someone you want to know better...don't let five years fly by and seize the day..don't let decades slide by... don't let a minute go by and let them walk out of your life without getting to know them better.

Take a chance on life and love.

Live where you want to live because you can always lose your lover .. your husband.. your spouse but at least you will wake up where you love it so much that you will always be happy on some level.

Grab, reach for tomorrow..live today, seize today.. it's all you have for sure.

Memories are wonderful but from experience they are more beautiful when they are a promise of more to come than when they are all you have left to enjoy.

Earl is out there somewhere...his butt is hanging down onto South America.. looks a bit like he's had too much beer, probably will have a beer belly but if he's lucky something will grab him and push in on by and keep him alive.

Danielle is one hell of a girl. Climo says she moves north and out to sea.. too fast, too soon, too far away. Wouldn't bet on climo this year..

Nothing is the same this year..nope. And, I say that smiling as I am smiling a lot lately.

Learn from the past, enjoy today and reach out for tomorrow..

Nice song.. for some reason this song came to my mind today. Always loved the tempo, the beat and feel of the song...

Living and Dying in 3/4 time.. dance with me ..dance with me..

Nautical Wheelers lyrics
By: Jimmy Buffett 1974

Nautical Wheelers who call themselves sailors

Play fiddle tunes under the stars

Petticoats rustle, workin' shoes scuffle

Shuffle on down to the bar

Where the jukebox is blastin' and the liquor is flowin'

An occasional bottle of wine

That's 'cause everyone here is just more than contented

To be livin' and dyin' in three-quarter time

Chorus:

And it's dance with me, dance with me,

Nautical Wheelers

Take me to stars that you know

Come on and dance with me, dance with me,

Nautical Wheelers I want so badly to go

Well, the left foot'll follow

Where the right foot has travelled

Down to the sidewalks unglued

Into the streets of my city so neat

Where nobody cares what you do

Sonia's just grinnin' and Phil is ecstatic Mason has jumped in the sea

And I'm hangin' on to a line from my sailboat All Nautical Wheelers save me

Chorus:

And it's dance with me, dance with me, Nautical Wheelers

Take me to stars that you know

Come on and dance with me, dance with me, Nautical Wheelers I want so badly to go

Well the sunrise'll bring on Sleep that's escaped us Everyone's off to their bed

There'll be huggin', squeezin' Little pleazin' and teasin'

And rubbin' of each other's heads

So won't you dream on compadres, seems nothing escapes you

Nothin', no reason, no rhyme

That's 'cause everyone here is just more than contented To be livin' and dyin' in three-quarter time

Chorus: A

nd it's dance with me, dance with me, Nautical Wheelers

Take me to stars that you know

Come on and dance with me, dance with me,

Nautical Wheelers I want so badly to go

Coda: I want so badly to go Yes, I want so badly to go

(figures it would have a coda...rolling eyes)

Stop playing the blame game

Listen I am short on time and have barely been able to watch most the coverage, in bits and pieces as I was in meetings all day.

I really don't want to hear bitching from people who were just south of Tampa complaining they had no time to prepare. Im sorry but thats crap and only good for those people who usually go around with false bravado making fun of their crazy sister or wife or tracks canes..and husbands. You know the types..they are the first to say "its not coming here" "oh youre all nuts over that storm? I heard its going to _________________ yesterday on the news"
You NEVER... NEVER EVER take your eye off of a Hurricane on any category when it is to the south of you.

As my daughter Dina said.. "dont they KNOW they go north ..." meanin gyou watch until they are far north of you and you are out of possible tracks. She is right.

They are beautiful to watch, deadly if you are in the track and there are weather radios, the internet (its for more than cyber sex and dating) and news, twc..local nightly weather.. there is no reason that in this day and age people who were high up in the probabilities should get "taken by surprise" by a hurricane unless they were in denial, thought it was stupid or uncool to get scared or too lazy to watch updates.

You live in Florida.. if you are in any part of a cone for landfall on any given day you keep watching.

Mayfield said OVER and OVER and OVER that it could go right or left of the main track. Every interview he gave.

Yes they went with Tampa but they qualified it for actual landfall but they emphasized it could change. I watched..obviously others weren't watching.

And, its not about how Tampa evacuated all their people and how Tampa prepared this is about how small communities in to her south that were in the path of the hurricane didn't.. They should have. Its not called hype when you have a strong Cane going over 90 degree water with little shear and a front diving down to grab it somewhere...

When are people going to learn?When are they going to stop playing the blame game?

And..the media is to blame in my opinon because they knew better than anyone it could change..theyve done this before but they were sent to one plot in the sand but they station and so it was hitting there.

Yes ..mistakes were made. I have a few questions on the pressure drops yet holding wind speed low and then suddenly everyone was surprised..

But all in all NHC called this quite good from days out.. and they even went against models that said yesterday it would pull left and went with how the flow was and what they saw..

So... maybe someone somewhere can learn from this. If there is a hurricane coming in your general direction south of you... you don't turn your back on it ever.

They are unpredictable. Its part of why we track and talk and study.. trying to learn, understand... if it was a sure thing there would be no reason to bother.

And, NHC isn't perfect..they do a damn good job. Sometimes there are complaints and I've complained plenty but this time..overall..track was good and when someone (Max) says "it cold go to the left or right of the track" people should know he means it.

Good luck to all in his path and watch him because Charley will be retired.. am sure.
Night.. Bobbi
ps...on a personal note.. thank God it spared Key West.. it was a close call.

TD 5 is predicted so far to be a threat to Florida from the east coming up over Cuba.
Nope..its not over.

Good Shabbos!

Busy Days .. Many Ways.. Charley comes ashore

Busy tracking and haven't been writing.

Will do so later.

NHC did a good job..all in all. They said it could go in right or left but people don't listen. They insist on following the main landfall spot which is a guesstimate. Mostly because the news media HAS to set up somewhere..draw their line in the sand and fight for coverage.

Everywhere from Tampa to Key West on the West Coast should have prepared for possible landfall.

I knew it was going to come in right of the forecast.. my gut feeling based on knowledge. Many did..the NHC said it "could" but everyone screamed TAMPA because it looked like Tampa.

They are unpredictable..that is why we love them.. now we cry we can't predict them?

More late.. just amazed at how we expect perfection from everyone..especially the NHC.

More later.. Bobbi

Hurricane Charlie crosses Cuba..and Miami has weather...

Okay...so here I sit.. staring out the south window at the distant lightning.
Looking at this picture: http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east.html

All the weather from this storm is over south florida.. all... well except the eye.. rolling eyes

So..we sit here in the NE quandrant getting lots of threatened reains

We have a:
tropical storm watch
flood watch
tornado watch

im watching

and im thinking

about many things...not sure weather

nope... lots of things ... have twc on mute, wxr radio on

explain to me why all day local news had live charley stuff but now when we have a massive band moving in they are doing regular programming

beautiful down there.... watching
my mind being elsewhere is not normal for me
what am i going to do?
for tonight...nothing.. going to smile, obsess and sign off the computer

Charlie crossing Cuba.. want to know how Havana is doing..

Happy Birthday Fidel !!

Watching and getting a bad feeling

Major Hurricane forming and I still think its going to pull right of the track. Within the cone of possible landfall NHC put out but on the far right. And, no amounts of explanations about trofs and models is going to convince to believe something my eyes see happening.

Did this with Irene.. yes the "core" went where they said but all the weather went NE.

NHC is great, they are and will follow any developments.

Bonnie went to the right of track. So will Charley. If I'm wrong.. in the words of Eddie's father "Oh well..." but yesterday I carefully progged the storm and winds and paths of previous storms and watched the Unisys water vapor til my eyes crossed and decided to stick my neck out and say online what I thought. Thread the keys and go in at a more 11:30 angle towards SW florida..

Today watching the storm leaning more to the NE as the eye moves steadily between NW and NNW (even tho official heading is NW) and all the flow and I mean ALL is coming up from the South.

Ft. Laud has winds out of the South, so does Miami.

Watch the radar.. all of it is going N to S.. why would Charley continue going NW or NNW if everything else is going N???

???

be back later

HURRICANE CHARLEY

Charley became a hurricane today at 2pm when they found an eye and winds exceeding hurricane force. He is about 90 miles S of Cuba.

Some people think the models will be adjusted further to the West however..GDFL came in with one to the East I believe.

This is where the models begin to split and there is more disagreement over path and timing.

Finally...finally he slowed down to 18mph forward speed.

Great posting online today and thoughts shared across the weather community. All in all NHC doing a good job, careful and cautious as so they should be. Can't wait to watch the news tonight and see what Norcross and Kamal have to say.

Someone made the comment that this year will be the first year most likely it seems that all of the 1st THREE (3) named storms directly had an impact upon the US mainland. Think on that
A B C storms..all land bound.

Also...big conveyor belt over Africa about to spew off more waves.

And, there is no MJO going on. Can you imagine what will happen when that kicks in?

Go ahead Tampa...shop til you drop and worry because it looks like its coming your way. Though might hit the keys if it bobbles to the east first. Will see.

Maybe not.. imagine a big bad storm in the middle of the Gulf around the anniversary of that infamous C storm.. Camille. 35 years this week. Awesome timing Charley has...though think he really is a Florida storm. But...which school is his favorite? UM? FSU? or UF or UCF?

Come on Charley..show us your colors.. show us your fight song.

Bobbi

The Loop to Watch..

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Great loop.. What do we see...
The reason Charley is zooming WNW is the ridge deepening behind him around 65w. That is a big steering mechanism.
However... watch Bonnie and the Trough to its north as it gains in lat and as the day progresses.
For not ULL to its NE is stationary forcing the high to build down ...there is an ULL to its wnw..
But its a very fluid situation..very and look at bonnie blow up on the last frames and move which way?

I'm going to Publix. Watches up for the Lower Keys

I'll be on and off all day keeping a log of my thoughts.

Charley continues to move steadily FAST towards S. Florida. Could hype here or panic. I won't..just its coming... "date with destiny" or a "date with disaster" either way the date is real soon... Friday sometime. Two days away and we don't have any watch up ...

Maybe the SW coast gets it and I will have bought some extra water which can be used for the next storm. I'm buying bandaids.. seems my kids asked why I bought peroxide all week and mentioned we are out of bandaids..

Make a list
Check it twice
Charley's gonna hit somewhere soon

But first...
Cuba is in the way and Jamaica is going to get some weather..fullforce or half force, who knows

Billy Wagner was on TV at NHC this morning...God Bless Him... precursor to Miami-Ft Laud going nuts.. Lord knows whats happening in Naples.

So...if anyone out there besides my brother is reading this ..these are my thoughts.

1... we just got the kitchen done..
2... i just got into this bedroom after
3... i know someone with a much better chest than cantore
4... i need water and small bottles for each kid to have
5... if we dont get the storm there will be no food left in publix on thursday
6... wondering if James Franklin will become head of hurricane center
7... i love billy wagner..he has become so old florida .. on the scene
8... i have to get dressed
9...which portion gets it ...quote franklin live
10.. zooming in on his eyes... he wont say "west coast" vs east coast.. says little "too early"
oh gosh... this is not good...

im going shopping
ill be on flhurricane and hurricanecity all day

son called from plane, jet blue..should be here at 10..the weather nut that knew landsea published some paper as a kid... giving me data on 5am update...

its going to be a long long day

and Ronnie is up in Orlando.. not in town.. maybe we should keep him there so they get it and not us

going shoppin...
bobbi

Okay... On his way to Tampa? where does he go first??

I'm tired. My eyes are blurred. I am smiling because of.. many things.. and not all Charley but we do love to track and watch and we are a bit crazy. We all track, some chase, some record. I write. I observe. I am always amazed by these intense storms that travel so far across the globe. And, in this case... Charley is zooming along very fast. Making every decision at the Hurricane Center and Emergency Management Offices along the way that much more difficult. No time to wait.. decisions need to be made.

So...on his way to Tampa (maybe) where will he go first?

Reposting this from my boards and will post thoughts in the morning. Maybe post my favorite links.

Long day, going to go to bed and smile.. my mind is here.. other parts of me are elsewhere ;)

....
ok.. wrote this..adding to this.. watching TWC ... want to mention not only does he look like he is moving NW he is beginning to stretch in the direction.. something to think on.tomorrow morning mothers all over Miami are going to wake up, look at the news/weather and think...

school supplies vs hurricane supplies..

going to get a lot of attention tomorrow.. getting close to prime time for Charley......

Okay... so is like this...

Someone, somewhere in South Florida is going to have to deal with a strong threat of Charlie affecting their weather on the way to parts north.The problem is not where Charlie will end up as much as where he goes on his way there.1... west of keys2...thru keys (eww...whimpering here)3...oh lets not talk about north keys and SE fla..long shot anywayAs I see it right now.. Charley is going more NW than WNW. He is going so fast that I figure by the time my son and I online got done arguing that one he had traveled the distance from downtown Miami to North Miami Beach.. again "ewww"

So... aside from the "how strong?" "how big" and "how fast" my biggest question here is at what angle is he aiming for Tampa Bay.Nice to say Tampa Bay but if he comes in around Marathon than the upper Keys and SE florida is on NE quandrant with tons of weather.

Watch.. he'll probably stall in the straits when steering currents go flat.. mark my words, would be ironically pathetically funny replay of Donna. But Donna stalled a lot, Charley never has..

Charley has gone chug chug zoom zoom across approximately over 400 miles in one day. I know I'm not a math major but... approx 25 mph foward speed over 24 hours.. you do that math.. I

'm glad I'm not Billy Wagner tonight because he has big decisions to make down in the Keys.

Normally he could wait a bit but with this ongoing forward speed and the tracks encompassing the lower keys.. he has to act as soon as possible. And he always does which is why I admire him greatly. So...if some announcement is made tomorrow morning that they will start a evacuation of non-residents in the lower keys tomorrow sometime.. IF..you all know that Miamians everywhere are going to stop, look, listen and run to Publix. Or at least make shopping lists.

Could go west of the Keys.. and then slam into those bay cities on the West Coast but..I think that's not the most likely scenario with her current motion being closer to NW than WNW. And, while I've been writing this he probably went further than the average commute to work for most the people reading this... think on that one.

Don't think too long or it will have gone another five miles.

Where will he hit Cuba?
At what angle?
How big will he get?
How big/strong will he get?
How many times will the models be pulled left and right over the next 24 hours before we know who is really under the gun as he makes his way towards a probable West Coast landfall.I think a track blending Cleo from the South and then Donna track takes over... My guess..Good night.. we should all get some rest, we won't rest much tomorrow night.

And if Billy is reading this somewhere...sorry I can't make you laugh tonight but do me a favor and go light some candles in the grotto for me...Bobbi

Charlie Explodes in the Caribbean!!!

Okay... been busy all day staring and watching Charlie go through his moves and he is something else to watch.

Earlier today he looked like he might collapse or do something funky. Outflow boundaries flew out and flew away. Instead he reorganized into a perfect buzz saw.. Hugo like with a blended track of Donna and Cleo.

So since around 6pm Charley took off and looks perfect. Perfectly scary.

Will check back after 11 with thoughts to see after the NOAA/NHC decides what it will do regarding newer models that show it slamming into South Florida at varying degrees after smashing through Cuba.

Earlier tracks took it up to west of Florida but they have all shifted to the right and he will be a big MAJOR storm at the rate he is going now.

Watching TWC...and listening to country CD that my brother J sent me from Greece and well... I'll be back.

Would sing a song but it would sound more like Danger Danger Will Robinson ...

Joe Gibbs is back and so is TD2...as BONNIE

Tropical Storm Bonnie formed today out of the remnants of Tropical Depression2.

It was pronounced alive again ... its small, petite but could pack a punch.

Steven Lyons called it pint sized. I think pixie like maybe.

And... Monday Night Football is on ABC. Joe Gibbs is back in charge of his team.

What a night for reunions and resurrections.

The message board fanatics have TD2 back... most of them are vindicated (they knew she'd come back) and those who said she wouldn't are just as happy... they have a storm to track, study and analyze.

I have a quandry here... problem... Tropical Update is on in 2 minutes and I am going to have to leave the football game. :( Hmmmm...what's a girl to do?

Switch fast ;)

So... Tropical Storm Bonnie formed. As expected.

Bigger story?

Tropical Depression 3 also formed and to many looked a whole lot better than Bonnie.
But the NHC who has been spurned a few times this season down in that area is waiting for the planes to go in I think.. or maybe might upgrade at 11. Going to wait here and see..

Tropical Depression formed as it went through the Leeward Islands and it was found from ground observation to have a circulation.. and gusts of 55mph. Enough to bump it up to Tropical Depression status. And, to think this morning it barely got a mention in the 5am.

1opm.. Bonnie 50mph... going NW at 6..
Watching Steve Lyons on Tropical Update. Tiny circulation. Not happy with what he's saying. It's true a small system is over faster but... BUT...its a little early to say that because between the north coast of the Yucatan and moving NW and then curving back NE towards Florida there is a lot of wet, warm real estate that it is going to travel across and it can end up being a lot bigger than it is now. But, imagine he is trying to give "good news" and hoping it will stay small. But can anyone really be SURE?? No...all the Opal nuts who are to Northern Florida what Andrew nuts are to Miami folks.. Every storm is a potential OPAL or Andrew.. Not so. But we do that as Burns says (burns by friend, vsandman.. you know BURNs) we always try and relive the last bad storm. So deeply does a disaster become rooted in our minds that we block out reality and see Opal and Andrew like kids at the beach sream SHARK! But, it could happen.

Will see...

so... that is my night, a great night.. so great that I turned down a trip to Publix with Sharon.

Tropical storm and Tropical Depressions.
Monday Night Football..like music to my ears, magic to my soul, a smile to my lips and as I said on HurricaneCity.. orgasmic like to sit and watch Monday Night Football and weather loops looping nearby. And... no... weather is not all there is in life. No..not at all. Neither is football.
Nope. It's good.. don't get me wrong. It's very good. But there really are somethings that make me smile more and I'm smiling and smiling and my face hurts from smiling.

Wow.. OH WOW.. Bryan Norcross is on at 11.. ouch.. not good sign.

3.. 3.. he's watching 3 "speeding into the Caribbean" "mass of clouds" "recent development" of storms around the center. In an area where they don't normally strengthen. 12.4 64.1 35mph 29.83 (thats low i think) ... planes going in... Through Staurday... gets "more complicated" and cone includes all of the Keys... if it stays on right side of the Cone..

Why are we concerned he asks?
Speeds through the Carib... then the Jet Stream dips down.. that is the big question..

now.........he looks at Bonnie
He giggles
Calls it with a giggle "small little thing"

Love listening to Bryan's words... better than NHC.. reading between Bryan Norcross and his words...

switching channels fast...

Okay watching Spanish channel. No not good at spanish.. un poquito.. (Bonnie of course) but they have really good graphs and sats... and I understand enough "aqui in gulf of mexico" and just said its real hot th water... he didn't giggle at Bonnie but went back to Charlie and called it big.. not El Gordo but well... mas.. as in mas importante maybe...

Well thats it. No upgrade and I can see that.. 3 is still coming together in a negative area for climo, not climotologically correct to intensify there. Can hear John Hope talking on that one though I imagine old John would look amused and impressed still to see it there quietly pulling together. Imagine John would see tracks of Camille and Donna in his mind blending together and though he would look real calm, real cool.. very detached and analytical he would be jazzed that 3 looked so possibly "all that"

Okay...back to the game. Back to my smiling and staring and thinking...
Great game.. Denver just scored.. so close.. great game, great night..


what a night.. reminds me of that song..how does it go?

It's not late December but its soooo "oh what a night"

Oh what a night,
Hypnotizing, mesmerizing me
he was everything I dreamed he'd be
Sweet surrender, what a night!
I felt a rush like a rolling ball of thunder
Spinning my head around and taking my body under

Oh what a night...........

Second Time Around?

Okay..this is going to be short as I am waiting to see what the wonderful men in the flying machines have to say. IF...they say TD2 has regenerated back into a TD then I will make a longer post.

Note.. as a Mercury Retrograde is starting today... and "re" words are in.. I will go with she will Re-form. Yes... all of you mets with the science degrees can hold your hearts and be annoyed smart savy Bobbi did something so passe as to bring up astrology in a weather forum. If you don't like it..talk to the ghost of Benjamin Franklin.. imagine he would have some thoughts to say you wouldn't like either :P

Anyway... so guys on the boards like Phil who obviously never gives up hope that he will run into that little red headed girl he had the crush on in elementary school will show up at his local Starbucks in a red mini dress and he will have one last chance with her... everyone on the boards is lusting over TD2 reforming and becoming Bonnie sometime today.

Will see...
Will love be as good the second time around?
Will td2 break everyone's heart AGAIN????
Is this the real thing?
Will it last?
Can she still strut her stuff?

Waiting and watching to see what the cute men in the flying machines will have to say.

Til then.. here's a song for the day ;)

BoBBi ... smiling...not BoNNie


Another Second Time Around Lyrics
Goo Goo Dolls Lyrics
Happy, smilin', cryin' outburst to my past
I guess those stormy gray skies simply couldn't last
And now I find myself a-tugging at your dress
The fun of holding you down, or seein' you frown, it's never gonna pass

Somewhere there's a place a soul can never go
Gray like stormy skies I hoped you didn't know
All our postcards full of things I won't forget
And now it's coming down, that laughing clown is all I ever get

Another second time around I've been runnin' from ya
Another second time around
Another second, one more second time I waited for ya
Another second time around

Couldn't help myself
I felt like everything was gonna pass
It was an awkward time
I hoped it wouldn't, hoped it couldn't last

And I didn't know exactly what to say
About the things you saw me do my evil way
And I know you're lyin', cryin' in your bed
Well I'm all tired out, so wired now, it's ringing in my head

Another second time around I've been runnin' from ya
Another second time around
Another second, one more second time I waited for ya
Another second time around
Another second time around
Another second time around

Get Over It....Invest 91, 92.. Get Over It

Okay..so I wake up this morning. Go online and try to read what was posted over Shabbos.

So hard to catch up that way and there is nothing happening.

Everyone is rehashing the past. Old invests.
I'm having problems remember which invests.. they all look the same. Tropical Depressions that were or Tropical Storms that never were..

And, the past.. everyone wants to rehash the past.
Wanna bees.. Pretenders and Has Beens.. all crowding around rehashing the past like its yesterday's breakfast of champions.

so.. its like this..
my advice to everyone..

Today is August 8th, 2004. Let's forget about the past. Let's forget about the old invests and tropical depressions that died not pretty deaths out at sea.. Let's forget about Debbie.

Let's live in the present.

I am doing breakfast with Sharon while she still lives down south before she runs away to Maine.

Song of the morning :)
Get Over It!

Sorry dont have time to fix the lyrics because Sharon is impatient and will be outside beeping the horn loud waking up and inciting my neighbors cause Im lying in bed with a towel on and haven't gotten dressed.

fix it yourself and get over it ;)
turn on the tubewhat do i see,a whole lot a people cryin' "don't blame me"they point their crooked little fingers at everybody elsespend all their time felin' sorry for them selves victim of this, victim of that your mommas too thin; and your daddys too fatget over it get over it all this whinin' and cryin' and pitchin' a fityou say ya haven't been the same since ya had your little crashbut you might feel better if they gave you some cashthe more i think about it, ol' billy was right let's kill all the lawers- kill 'em tonight you don't wanna work you wanna live like a king butt the big bad world doesn't owe you a thingget over it get over it ya don't want to play then you might as well split get over it, get over it it's like going to confession every time i hear you speakyour makin' the most of your losin' streak some call it sick, but i call it weak yeah yeah yeahyeah you drag it around like a ball an' chain you wallow in the guilt; you wallow in the pain you wave it like a flag, you wear it like a crown got your mind in the gutter, bringin' everybody downya bitch about the present and blame it on the pasti'd like to find your inner child an' kick it's little assget over it get over it all this bitchin' and moanin' and pitchin' a fitget over it, get over it get over it get over it it's gotta stop some time so why don't you quitget over it,get over it get over it

A Brand New Day..

New possibilities blowing my way.
Some will go and some will stay.

Waves worth watching.
Posts worth reading.

This is my thought for the day.

I want a man who understands THIS song ;)
That's what I want.

SMART WOMAN (IN A REAL SHORT SKIRT)
Jimmy Buffett and Marshall Chapman
Bimbo limbo is where I've been
I know you know that it's wearing me thin
The times are changin'
and it's about timeI'm rearranging all the guilt in my mind

Chorus
I'm looking for a smart womanin a real short skirt
Smart woman who knows how to flirt
Smart woman got a mind of her own
Smart woman that'll take me home
Take me home
I'm not your macho kind of guy
But I can be so when I'm feeling shy
Hey baby where'd you get your good looks
Ooh babe I want to carry your books
Chorus

I'm looking for a smart womanin a real short skirt
Smart woman show knows how to flirtSmart woman got a mind of her ownSmart woman that'll take me homeTake me home
Beauty and brains (beauty and brains)
Best of both worlds (best of both worlds)
Think I can change
If you'll be my be my be my girl
Chorus
I'm looking for a smart woman in a real short skirt
Smart woman sho knows how to flirt
Smart woman got a mind of her own
Smart woman that'll take me home
Take me home

also a cute song pull apart the lines yourself lol
and yes...long sting's brand new day.. put it in a google search ;)

THAT'S WHAT LIVING IS TO ME Jimmy BuffettJason Mason hears the soundThe whistle blows in CongotownAnd the mail boat's in mail boat's in
It brings him things from oh so farOld magazines and Snickers BarsA simple man a simple landThe world's too big to understand
ChorusBe good and you will be lonesomeBe lonesome and you will be freeLive a lie and you will live to regret itThat's what living is to meThat's what living is to me
On a timeless beach in HispaniolaA young girl sips a diet colaShe's worlds apart worlds apartThe spirit of the black king stillReverberates through Haitian hillsHe rules the sea and all the fishWhat if he had a TV dish
ChorusNow in the far off regionsthe foreign legionKeeps the thieves and the predators at bayWhile closer to homesome bad boys still roamThe streets aren't safe so give itOne more day, one more day
The stories from my favorite booksStill take on many different looksAnd I'm gone again, home againThe time has come the walrus saidAnd little oysters hide their headMy twain of thought is loosely boundI guess it's time to mark this down

Thursday Night..round up and round out

Can't think which song to use today if any. Some song that was playing on the radio today that sounded just perfect and told myself I'd remember forever and now can't remember. Probably because my mind was elsewhere.

Alex gave us a Major Hurricane. That's one down.. how many to go?

Nice surprise.
Surprises can be good, sometimes. Well, they don't let you think..that's good.
Some people think TOO much.

Didn't track too much today. What was there to track?
Alex was more a show to watch as he makes his way towards Europe.

TD2.. never quite Bonnie no matter how much we wanted to believe fell apart over the Caribbean and is currenly climbing the Citadel in Haiti. Tough girl.. give her credit. Either that or she found the formular that the other TD wanna be had to have Scotty beam her across Haiti and end up in the Turks lol.. strange summer.

Great summer.. crazy summer.. summer of change.

So... will someone find a way to resurrect TD2 of does our Bonnie lie over the ocean somewhere in a CV wave waiting to form?

We'll see.
Nope..not posting any tunes today. Maybe tomorrow. Any tunes I have today are in my own head and keeping them there as I write this from bed about to go to sleep so I can wake up and see how the little TD2 is doing..if anything.

Wild rain clouds in Miami today.

One daughter came home from sleepaway camp. A son had a birthday and turned 10. The youngest. We made a party. It was great. Fun. Nice.

My mind is mush. Someone found a way to morph his way down to Miami and stir up all sorts of turbulence in my local environment. So, as I sit here suffering from a case of terminal smiling I will leave anyone reading this with one thought...

Sometimes... you never know what's around the corner, around the bend or standing behind you.

You never know when a forecast will be busted or some wave will bomb out or build into a Major Cane on its first try. Talk about beginners luck. You just don't know.

If that happens. Smile. Pray. And, hang on for the ride of your life

Somewhere some unfigured little wave from nowhere pops up and becomes a Major without any models predicting it. Yet..somewhere...someone always knows. Because its in the gut, something you can't explain or elaborate on but you know.

Looks like a funky busted season so far.
But its not.

A lot will happen and so.. hunker down and enjoy the show.

Bobbi
ps..was a great song.. sounded maybe like Springsteen or Chili Peppers.. who remembers.

Will Alex be a landfalling system??? PS..

Ok.... just a quick PS...

Will part of Alex's eye cross over Kill Devil Hills or where ever that cool place is?
Think it might clip the outter banks to go on the books for making landfall.. close call.
Watch on TWC live if you have a chance on radar..

And.. Red Sox won last night :)
Forgot to mention that as I was sooooooooooo distracted with tropical friends but.. they did and wanted to mention it ...

and as for THE WAVE... seems they are going to take a plane out to take a look, predictably but nice to see official word. Glad they are might take out the one to check out the atmosphere.. think that its real important with this developing storm.

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:A. NEGATIVE ON ALEXB. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 04/1800Z NEAR 14N 58W.C. POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION WITH A 04/1730Z TAKEOFF