Norcross gives his view of NHC's job on Charley
Watched an interview with Norcross this morning on his local channel's news show where he was asked to give his opinon on NHC's job predicting Charley's path .... a subject of great controversy within the media.
They showed people in shock after the storm who swore they were misled about the destination of Charley.
I can't comment on the beginning because I missed a few minutes but saw his response. He speaks fast. Faster than me so I couldn't type it out but it was a reiteration of the discussion on the boards about Cone VS track within the cone.
Dotted line up middle of the cone or JUST A CONE
And he as predicted said the NHC and media should stop showing anything but the cone..
You see the CONE is what the NHC predicts but people want points in the path, dots... more certainity so they put out a dotted line. But the dotted line has no higher chance of getting the storm than does a point 25 miles or more to the west or east and in a small strong storm that means a big deal.
People in Kendall think they are safe because the landfall predicted is for say North Miami Beach. Now let's say the storm is moving 20 miles an hour... and could even accelerate to 25 mph forward motion.
In two hours time the difference in landfalling would be a 50 mile difference.
That means the slightest boggle of the storm would take total devastation anywhere from the upper Keys north to near the Broward County Line.
But the media would have been camped out down in Kendall near landmarks that previously got destroyed and all the reporters would be showing pre storm footage from Matheson Hammock or the old Deering Estate..maybe even Key Biscayne when the beach that might take the storm the worst would be Haulover or even Hallandale just to the north of the eye wall.
How many storms have wobbled a drop just at landfall.. almost ALL.
So...how can we say North Dade vs South Dade or even more so... a wobble that you can't pin point as true movement that starts 4 hours before landfall. Widen that cone from South Broward to Key Largo.
Which is infact why the NHC orders evacuations and preparations more than 24 hours before a Hurricane Warning.
And... if you are lucky, damn lucky...you board up, lose a day of work, find a store open (Dairy Queen or Kmart) in a city that is boarded up and locked down tight for a Hurricane and the storm moves past you ....but you took all the precautions necessary... you can't look back and say "you were blind sided" or that "they said on the News Andrew was going to hit the Miami near downtown"
And...I know because we did that drill during our flirtation with Floyd. There was no where to go... stores were locked up (except for Dairy Queen and Kmart lol) and you could brave the ocean for a peak and get a quick passing soaking shower far from the storm, feel his winds rush through your hair but you could also Thank God that you were spared. And, sit around listening to idiots bitch that the NHC made them lose a day of work and wasted all that time and forced them to spend $200 on junk food and drinks when you should have been understanding the extreme risk we were all under during Floyd..
A storm that was traveling parrallel to the coast.. like Charley but that was much bigger and would have caused disaster on a much larger scale geographically than we saw this season so far...
So...yes.. drop the dotted line.
Go with the Cone.
Give percentages more and explain how much they wobble.
Stop advertising your reporters are in place for the point of where the storm will come ashore.. TWC does this but at least they do send several to cover a storm and therefore I think TWC viewers have a better understanding of "the cone" and take bets of course on who will get it ...Cantore or Morrow.
Sometimes its not the message that is wrong as much as how it is delivered.
Follows is my post from HurricaneCity.com. Thank you Jim for allowing me the ability to be myself and post my long rambling posts. Nice to feel able to fly freely and enjoy friendships online with fellow hobbiests.
.... I'd give a song today but don't want to bother looking for lyrics online.
It would be Don't Rain On My Parade... my favorite song from Funny Girl years ago.. a song I should learn the words to again.. :)
go on... www.google.com "dont rain on my parade" lyrics lol
giggling, listening to distant thunder...
Norcross on interview on NHC controversy
Posted by Bobbi on 8/22/2004, 11:27 am
Hi.. I just watched an interview locally in Miami with Bryan Norcross where he was asked about the discussion by many in the media that the NHC blew the forecasting of Charley and there by bore responsibility for people being unprepared.
The Tampa call..specifically.
He went into great detail (after they showed segments of people saying how they never saw it coming..etc) and the response went like this but do not hold me to words.. not quoting. Can't type that fast.. he is a fast talker.
They had showed a cone a day or two before that showed every resident within the area that got hit being INSIDE the CONE for landfall. And, they knew within that cone someone would get hit. The odds within the cone are the same from left to right.. so that it doesnt matter where it comes in.. the hurricane doesn't follow a line. There is a line being the center of the cone but they make it clear that the center has no greater odds than the right or left of the cone.
If you take that with Jim's link you know that 2 days before the storm every one in the area hit should have began immediately preparing for a landfalling major storm. I mean.. do you wait for 6 or 12 hours before.. NOOOOO reason we do it ealier is to give people time to prepare.
Even if those people thought they had last minute reprieve there is no way they could have been blindsided.. or clueless or misled by the NHC early on.
Also... he said within the cone there is always wobbling of motion and no way that anyone could tell the exact path ... and since the storm was parallel to the path projected... the danger was higher.
The problem was not the message given but how it was put out.. by the media mostly in that they went with the center line.
On a personal note he did not mention how he was part of that.. as friends called me to tell me he was screaming on live Miami TV that TAMPA better hunker down and that they have to take it seriously.. etc... Though he did say that the media is just the media (meaning him?) and that the final word is the NHC and they showed a cone.
He also said that they publish odds which of course we here live and die on but aren't shown on air that much and he thinks showing the odds would be beneficial.
Also...thinks the dotted line should be eliminated and we should just show a cone.
He also added in the way only Norcross would that most people who die in a storm or who suffer injuries are time and time again to be shown to be doing things they shouldn't be doing and have been warned against doing..
mentioned from past deaths..
a) were driving around in the stormb) staying in a trailer homec) going out smoke a cigarette in the storm
and added not to say that people don't die from horrific things like a tree falling on a house where people are boarded up safely...
very Norcross interview and the person doing the interview on his home channel on a Sunday morning news show did not ask the hard question.. That being does he feel badly for screaming Tampa or ... does he feel it was right seeing as Tampa residents haven't had a cane in so long that he was worried on their level of preparation.
Interesting interview..short.. but guess he votes on the side of the cone..
Of course ...so do I. Think at this point, we all do.