I think its very possible that Frances could follow the 1893 storm track where a storm approaches Florida as it travels around a big high pressure system.. finds a weakness and makes a hard right turn and slams into Ga/SC area. Also a similar storm in 1899 followed the same path. Also..both those years had other similar tracks to this year.
However... Gaston could leave.. that system to her east could disapate and the high over SE US and the Atlantic High could fuse together and spell disaster for Florida... again.
Posted this earlier in online message board...
Basically..it would be very easy for me to wishcast this storm as Andrew 2, the sequel but makes more sense to look at this year.. patterns... all years not just the ones we remember like Donna and make a really good educated decision.
A lot could change between today and tomorrow at this time.. as well as Monday.
Truth is Gaston is building a really nice long tail that is juicing up the atmosphere off the Florida coast and could leave a door way in the high for Frances to follow. Also.. a system on invest to the east of Gaston could further enhance that door opening allowing Frances to do what so many have done before at that location... catch a curve ball up towards the Carolina's away from Florida.
Then again.. steering currents could kick in and grab Gaston and scoot him off into the Atlantic allowing the ridge to fuse together with a high over the East Coast ..making the mother of all ridges since Andrew and its bye bye door and we in South Florida could pray for front to appear suddenly dues ex machina like and save our lucky butts.
Ummmmm don't know.. can't say.
I would believe such a turn somewhere is more likely than not.
Also... as of 11pm.. NHC slowed the track down. To me that would mean a possible continued weakening of steering currents in which case.. Gaston is not in a rush to leave. Very messy sats right now especially on the water vapor.
So...here's my post.
No songs tonight but if I had one it would be whimsically romantic.. maybe some silly 80s song but I don't want to talk about my personal life or anything else tonight other than weather.
On a personal family note though my son Shuky who is very good at forecasting and reading all satellite imagery said on Friday that so far Frances has been following the NHC tracks like a... ummmmm *&(!ing robot. Seems to have a lot of faith in NHC on this one. Think they did a good job too. He should be in meteorology school.. he really should. But, he's doing his thing.. and he's young and I respect that and can't say I wouldn't and didn't do what he's doing when I was his age. He has the brains for the math and science... I can dissect Fitzgerald and Tennessee Williams as well as he can and has watched forensic types dissect a body... a scientific mind.
Nite everyone... watching Gaston...OH WOW... he's moving at 5mph finally... fast get out of his way. sigh..
Spent a good part of the day going over old storm tracks from a great book a good friend sent me. Historical Climo Series.
As wonderful as playing with unisys online (and others) its not the same as a book you can flip back and forth and absorb the info better. I think.. good book, good friend.
And...this is what I have come up with...
Following certain parameters...
Finding years with storm tracks through the S Carib.
Finding years with a hit on Florida west coast.
Finding years with sw to ne oriented hits on S. Carolina/Ga region.
Finding storms in the current area (or extrapolated might have been before sat imagery)This is what I find most interesting.
1871... storm in late August..Comes in through the islands and makes a nw curve up over... into GA.That year features two NW florida hits but higher up...
1885... storm shows that it formed north of PR but there is no way of knowing if it started earlier. Shows a ridge in place and storm takes a sudden turn up and off and barely touching the Florida coast and coast into South Carolina.That year had a storm come across Cuba into the Tampa/W Coast area as well as several storms fly through Ga on their way back out to the Atlantic from the Gulf. Though we didn't have much of a Gulf season and that one did.
1893... a Year no one wants to repeat. Ever especially in Ga/SC.A storm going NW through Florida out thru GA to ocean and a storm from a similar place following similar projected path but turning in the Bahamas up the Florida coast and slamming into Ga/Sc region. Bad storm. Killed a lot of people. Infamous in that region. Acutually had two similar storm paths both hitting SC after heading towards Florida with a hard right turn.
1899...Storm went through the islands... moved up David like but went into South Carolina after a strong hard right turn. Also fetured a storm going through W Florida.
1937....Storm comes towards Florida from SE at a cord close to where Frances could be tomorrow or the next day. Moves around a ridge and ends up pulling nnw up towards just north of the Cape.. say Daytona.. That year featured a storm moving across FL after a hit near Tampa.
1960... Donna.. any "up and over the island" track reminds us of Donna.
1964....Dora... Dora came in higher than Frances is but did take a path similar if a high builds in.. And features Cleo that took a path lower and came up from a much lower position than where Frances is so..discounting but mentioning. More concerned on Dora track though that is very different from current NHC thinking so..not really a big possibility.
All in all 1899 and 1893 are the two years that I think most reflect this year.
There are many years where a storm threatened from a similar place but I tried to choose years which had tracks that I thought this storm is and could continue following with similar other aspects.
Personally.. think it makes a hard right just before South Florida.. closer than Floyd. Worry more on say WPB to Melbourne in that turn but think its very possible a track similar to the infamous 1893 storm could occur.Take care... I wish everyone here lots of luck.. we'll all need it. Bobbi.... thank you Howie :)