3 Yellow Xs... NHC Goes BOO For Halloween. Is GFS Real or Doing a Trick Today and Where's the Treat Here? Patty Is That You? Rafael Also?

 3 PM

Waited til now to update the blog.

I was sure the 2nd X would be shown today.

And, there is it is....the 2nd X!

The orange circle is now 60%

Still orange for Halloween!

the Yellow sliver like circle is 10%

According to NHC it'll be absorbed.

The Carib system absorbs it!

Isn't this a drama?

To add to the drama there's a 3rd circle.

Up in the Atlantic...not talking on it much.

But it's there!

Boo!

Below there's the WV Loop.

You can see the broad area of convection.

It's to the NE of our old Yellow X in SW Carib.

Love the water vapor loop.

Black and white and shades of gray.

It's a crystal ball if you know how to read it.

This was the Orange Pumpkin from the NHC at 8 AM

50% today for development in 7 days.

Looked a bit like a squashed pumpkin.

It's squashed because the High is pressing down on it.

And it's going to ultimately push it NW

to the left, to the left.

Wrote this at Noon...

..waiting for NHC to put up yellow X

and to acknowledge the 2nd yellow X

Please keep reading.

At 2 PM the 2nd Yellow X appeared!

So here we are.......

If you watched a video where someone on YouTube said this whole CAG mess might go NW once it forms and starts moving and you told them they didn't know what they were talking about... you might owe them an apology. If you did that on X .....well you know who you are..... and they knew this system was on hold, stalled out waiting for the elements to align properly and once they came together it would have to go more to the NW once it "all" started moving. The people showing the 2nd X were looking far, far down the road and you were thinking the SW Carib yellow circle "it's gonna form any day" and well they were right. I was right. I have sat back and watched with mild curiousity knowing it doesn't matter what I say today as everything will change and at 2 PM things changed. 

Ps I am NOT saying this is going to form and take off like a long distance runner going all the way to Texas, but I am saying once it starts moving it will put fear and concern in the hearts of many along various cities along the Gulf of Mexico. 

Perspective is everything.

Looking at our candidate for Patty....

...it's clinging to the coastline and waiting.

I've often said this...

..they hide down there on the ledge of Honduras.

Those that get fame, wait and just hover.

Waiting to develop.

Going wider...there's our 2nd Yellow X area!

(big golden orange area of convection)

There's a 2nd area of convection near or NW of PR.

If you remember those old long range models?

Yeah, that's still on the table.

It's now on the 2 day NHC map!

Going wider.........

....oh look! There's a Circle.

And it's all going round and round.

You can see the spin on the wide loop.

The little hook to the left in the black...

...N of DR is an upper level low.

It's been there, swirling

Shearing the system near PR

Upper Level Lows are funny.

They can feed a developing system.

Or they can hinder it.

Sometimes they do both at different times.

This is all about TIME today.

At 3 PM I edited what I wrote....

...in an unfinished blog.

So here we are.......

...where do we go from here?

CMC says this about 8 days from now.

Don't shoot the messenger.

We see one huge storm...

...and a small one tagging along.

The EURO in 6 days....

...shows a weaker system.

A strong cold front.

It kind of all gets absorbed.

The GFS .... saved the best for last.

Shows them doing a dance....

SW Carib curves around...

swirls around...

one part goes into GOM

and the other part........

.......slides up Florida coast.

Note this could be wrong it's long term.

GFS... most likely will change.

Where does this end?

On this 1 run on Thursday......

 8 days down the road a storm hits Carolinas.

The other remnant low is in GOM

An EPAC storm forms.

Everyone gets a storm on the GFS.

For a while on Friday it does Wilmington NC

Then OBX then rushes up the coast (offshore)

FAST

Bottom Line:

We just really don't know, nothing has formed. Models can back off and make the forecasters at NHC nervous they introduced the 2nd X (as they should have) or models show it hitting Florida or Cuba..or maybe they both dance away from the coastline caught up with some fast moving front. But, the problem is next week is a warm week for this area that's seen several cold fronts with temperatures higher this week then early next week a cold front goes through and then.....we don't know

One model run. What will the next model show?

Remember a week or so ago (seems like a week) the GFS showed a huge storm impacting Florida and or the Carolinas or both on Election Day and everyone online went crazy arguing whether there is weather modification or some evil plot or Lex Luthor was out there lurking with his weather machine and meteorologists reminded everyone they don't make the weather and there's no such thing and well it's been a shit show ever since Helene plowed deep inland as the NHC forecast it would and caused the catatrophic flooding the NHC put in it's discussion way before Helene made landfall in Florida. 

We have a pattern going.

Is that pattern about to break?

Does the Gulf of Mexico get another hurricane?

Could a hurricane get far enough to hit areas West of Florida?

Does Florida need another hurricane?

Is Miami really protected or does Miami's luck runs out?

NC has had a few storms this year, this would be another one... but only if it's merging with a front and then it'd be up in Virginia before you could type Virginia. Hey Virginia...watch out, you never know.

And that is the motto of this blog that's now way too long. 

What we know is there are 2 areas being monitored in the Caribbean including the one going East that better not hit Spain as over 150 people are dead from flooding there that looked a whole lot like Helene in NC except there's a city where bulls usually run but in this case water ran downhill through the narrow roads and cars flowed downhill with people in them either scrambling out or trapped in their cars under other cars.

Talk about  a Halloween Nightmare.

what a nightmare :(

Didn't mean to go dark in my online weather diary but hey it's been a year and we still don't have a final total on how many people have died from Helene, though varoius agencies have put out a statistic but people are sleeping in tents, whole families, on what's left of their property and show has already fallen there and we need to figure out how to faster get help to people in America who have gone through horrible weather disasters as well as pray for those around the world having other weather disasters.

What can I say? On a lot of medicine for a sinus infection that doesn't seem to be Covid and isn't all just allergy and I'm sitting in bed typing this while I look out the window and there's leaves falling to the ground like butterflies dancing in the breeze. It is so frigging beautiful here this time of year. I went to Sprouts to buy more herbal stuff earlier and there is a box where people are donating foods for hurricane relief in Western North Carolina and love the way people jump on giving charity and helping here, it's an awesome place to live.

And you gotta take the bad along with the good as everywhere people live there is something that can get them be it a Twister or a Hurricane or a Flood or Blizzard and more people die in Heat Waves than they do in most hurricanes. 

Could GFS happen? 

There's always a chance but it's logical at least a piece of one of the Lows gets pulled North. Do they dance, I don't know... yes ....no ... maybe. 

Remember most hurricanes this time of year (November in less than 9 hours) are strongest to the South than to the North and usually when there is one that pulls North the energy gets transferred to a frontal boundary and............sometimes something starts to happen and then suddenly it gets left behind, stuck somewhere waiting for the next front .... 

Time will tell.

Start over tomorrow on November 1st and we will see what curve balls the models throw at us as we move into the realm of wild tracking November tropical systems. This isn't Hurricane Mitch, it'll never be Mitch but Mitch did wreak havoc this time of year and then after doing Central America it did South Florida. I remember, I was there ;)

Every day deeper into November.

Many more questions in this riddle...

...in the search for Patty and possibly Rafael!

Listen... a good friend said never say should.

An old boyfriend said never say never.

So I can never say never.... 

...but usually Climo Wins!

Of course 2024 isn't a typical year!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Insta

Twitter mostly weather

Insta...whatever.

Groundhog Day 321... The Search for Patty in the SW Carib. Forever 40 and Orange.

 

Note high-pressure pressing down into GOM

Shear across Cuba.

Convection clinging there in SW Carib

See the Gremlin like red creature.

2 eyes...and outstretched arm

belly...

...li'l tail!

It can't get up and get moving.

It's stuck.

Do you see any movement?

EPAC has systems.

Maybe it'll mosey over there.

See they have a very late season going.

I can see the attraction.

Lots of color ...

..area to the North of it is sliding West.

Why not this CAG mess?

Okay I'll be honest. I'm really not a CAG girl, not to be confused with SAG as Screen Actors Guild is good and Sagitarrius is a great sign (especially if they have their Mercury in Capricorn or Venus as I have my sun in Cap and my Venus in Scorpio...okay too much info....what were we talking about? Oh, right the CAG storms that I'm really not so into. I'm taking cold meds, sinus meds and asthma medication so if I'm not careful I could write a Tell All Book on Lifestyles of Producer/Directors or Storm Chasers or forecasters but no I'll stick with the orange circle that won't go away.

What if our Orange Gal isn't a Gal and moves West into the Pacific and what if Patty isn't a CAG storm but a tropical wave or  low that forms at the tail end of some frontal boundary and high pressure builds in pushing a wayward westbound wave West before suddenly being picked up by a cold front and being carried up, up and away the way Inez was when she sure looked like she was going to smash Miami but after doing the Florida Straits she said "No! No! No! I don't want to go" and hauled around and made a U turn back into the GOM making everyone in South Florida that prepared really pissed off. That's what they said as I grew up hearing people bitch they were supposed to get INEZ but she didn't want to do Miami.

I don't make this up.... 

...my Aunt said there was some rain.

But much to do about nothing.

That brings us back to the CAG storm forecast to form.

Maybe.

Here's a "what if" scenario.

What if Patty is in the Atlantic.

What if we are watching Rafael?
(we don't do Q, don't ask, it's complicated)

GFS shows 2 systems (ish)

One in the Bahamas.

One S of Cuba

Near Island of Pines or Youth, whichever.

EURO doesn't really show this....

Euro shows rain.... 

Oh and still...

the CMC shows this.

Note that is 8 days away.

By then we will know who is President

Half the country will be happy.

Half the country will be upset.

Discussion on results may go on and on.

Kind of like this CAG system...

...taking it's time to form.

That's it.

Nothing has formed.

CMC is dreaming...every day. 

Every way, every night.

CMC wants this to happen.

GFS is kind of sort of onboard.

EURO as always plays hard to get. 

Stay tuned tomorrow.

Same blog.....

I'm really not a CAG person.

Just saying.

They can produce.

But every day that goes by....

...it'll be harder to get a strong storm.

And, that's okay... 

..because Florida is so over this hurricane season!

And, North Carolina.

Sweet Snowy Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather ... Insta whatever!

Is Patty Forming in the Caribbean This Week? TD or TS or Hurricane? Models Offer a Huge Menu of Possibilities.

 

Anyone that knows me knows I love maps. In the absence of an Invest it's good to take a look around at maps that NOAA puts out for the next week or so and above we have one of those maps. What we can see is that there's a front draped across the Southeast and one further down in the Caribbean stationary from Cuba up into the Atlantic. A red L is ceremonially stuck down the the coast of Columbia to the East of the Monsoon Tropical  Wave. 

Orange 40%

Showing models currently is useless as by the time I hit "post" a new model run will come out. The Canadian is hot to trot and sees intensity that other models do not see as easily. Again nothing has formed so without a formation point when dealing with the CAG in that part of the world, we have to wait and see where it forms and when it forms. Til then we are zooming through models, ensemble models and other imagery used to make a best guess on where it would most likely go. And, in November they can catch a front out of the Caribbean or they can suddenly stall out and wander in different directions scaring everyone like left over Halloween Mojo. Ensemble models are like a haunted house with various tracks zig zagging across the Caribbean going North and NW and then NW and maybe all at once.

First day I could watch Mike in weeks.

Been busy here. 

Fun to just watch him do this his thing.

The questions will be answered.........

...when we have a defined center.

Where and when it forms is everything.

The real question is whether whatever forms moves fast towards landfall or does it get cut off, left behind and stalls or loops waiting for another feature it finds more fascinating to run with ...once it gets going.  This is the key to having a well defined game plan or lots of spaghetti all over the models going in every direction possible.

So many IFs right now.  All we "know" is that there is a good chance something forms in the SW Caribbean over the next week. NHC currently uses the phrase "tropical depression" so they are keeping their expectations low for now. There's always some model screaming hurricane and there's lots of models screaming shear. 

It all comes down to "timing" and where it forms, when it forms and how it forms. Does it form fast or slow and wobbly movement vs knowing where it wants to go before it gets a name. 

This is November in the tropics. Fronts, for the most part, protect Florida tho sometimes they allow one to slip through or slide along the coastline creating a strong wind flow with beach erosion possible. 

I did this screenshot earlier today of Mike talking.

Talking on November tracks from the past.

As he says... history gets made every year.

They don't HAVE to follow historic tracks.

But....it gives a good idea of what could happen.

Let's zoom in and look at the yellow dots.

Yes, there is one near SW Florida.

I'll admit that one wiggles NW then NE ...

(some models have suggested that movement)

For the most part..........

They are zooming out of Carib to NE

Sometimes they can bend back towards USA

cold front draws them in then sweeps it away.

I'm doing the best I can today ...trying to lay low, rest and take medication. My head is stuffed up and obviously there's an element of Fall Allergy, however they have barely bothered me this year and really think this is more a cold or a virus trying to become a Sinus Issue. Time will tell. Sinus medication makes me sleepy and asthma medication makes me restless and playful. A dangerous combination sometimes and as I type this I giggle but my energy is to low to do anything too dangerous or silly. 

Gonna watch some videos of others talking on the possibilities. Reorganize things as my house guests have departed and things need to be put back to where they used to be as I had to make the "guest room" back into a "guest room" from a "storage room" and then take it a day at a time. 

Being honest, I love the Fall in the Carolinas. Everyone wants to know when I'm coming back to Florida and honestly "not now" is my answer. Every day is new here, one tree is gold, one tree is burnished copper, one tree has mixed leaves like a crazy quilt and the maple trees are about to go red. The sky is blue and it's been blue for a week easily. Generally after Thanksgiving I'm in the mood to go somewhere and in this case it may be somewhere that there's snow as it's hard to get snow in Raleigh unless we get into a wet scenario vs a dry one. 

Curious on Patty, the next named storm, and watching loops and models and part of me is trying not to look at winter forecasts and stay in the Hurricane Zone and the other part of me is already halfway to Winter. 

This product suggests...no screams development.

Early part of November.

Dark red in the Caribbean.

Note another candy stripe area to it's NE.

Really curious on that other area.

Waiting to see if NHC plops a yellow circle soon.

Either way time will tell.

I'll update when something changes. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever....

SW Carib Trying to Find Spin........ Orange for Fall Color and 40% This Cool Sunday in Carolinas.

 

This is a FWIW post as I've been off and back from my vacation and there's lots of talk on various models doing various things with regard to the area of interest in the Caribbean highlighted in orange for action in the 7 day period currently on Sunday afternoon at 40% chances of development.

Models change on every run, but I'm going to post some models and talk on possibilities. 

Canadian model above.

another view presented on X

every model run is a bit different.

I'm showing various runs.

There is no definitive idea.

Other than it forms....

...and that's why it's at orange.

Using Windy.com below

Euro shows a slug of moisture.

Not very organized...

..perfect spot for a November system tho.

GFS shows this on Nov 4th.

Carib system flirting with another low.

Strong high to the North...

Icon SW Carib and other area to NE

Nice graphic via Mr. Weatherman on YouTube.

check him out.

I'm tired and under the weather in that my allergies are off and my throat hurts :( and not feeling so great. When I was a kid my mother would say "change in the weather" haha you wonder how I became obsessed with weather? Teasing, always loved it but true she was worrying on the weather often and the weather did change, the heater came on and I'm watching football.

Will do a way better anaylsis in the morning.

But........truth is.........it's one of those areas that will develop when it wants to and depending on when that it there may be another low nearby or no low nearby. It doesn't appear currently to be threatening the USA but never say never. November takes systems out of the SW Carib towards Cuba and the Bahamas usually and South Florida keeps an eye down to the South just in case.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.

Ps........Jamaica better pay attention too!

Quiet Day in the Tropics. As We Move Towards Late Week Will See If Anything Develops. End of October into First Days of November... Maybe Something

 

Currently nothing in the tropics.

Models show something may form...

..in the SW Caribbean.

But models are off, on and off again.

Like a highschool romance ...

Long term models thru late October..

Show nothing.

That could change.

As we flip the calendar to November.

Election.... odd November storms?

Happens.

Last week in October coming soon...

...surprises of all kinds usually in the tropics.

I'll be offline til Saturday evening.

I have relatives in town by  me for a holiday.

And this is the first chance I had to go online today.

Been busy...but very good to see them.

Check with all the regular sources ...

...and especially the NHC

Times are changing...

... I'd think we'd have another system.

As always time willt tell.

Thanks all of you for being awesome.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.

    

Oscar and X Nadine aka Kristy

Oscar is King of the Atlantic today.

No other systems.

Hurricane for a bit.

Downgraded after stalling over Cuba.

Forecast to move up into Atlantic.

Hopefully stay away from Bermuda.

Oscar was a long tracking tropical wave.

Late season that hung in there.

Actually impressive.

Few African Waves made it across.

And, it's not done yet.

In the EPAC

X Nadine now goes by Kristy

Another stubborn system.

As for the rest of October.

Ensemble models being passed around online.

Why anyone gets excited far out I don't know.

It's not rocket science.

October systems form in Carib.

Work their way N or NE or NNE

You an pretty much just show this map.

October storms.

as we move towards November.

You see this.

You can see an East Coast system also.

Along the E Coast

or merging with a cold front.

Sandy was that storm.

Just an example.

Truth is Winter has been welcomed in many states along the Hurricane Coast. Dewpoints lower, less rain and barely a cloud as high pressure is all the rage these days. I'm not saying the season is over, saying the season has one or two more to squeeze out. But the times they be a changing for sure.

That said October loves to do Halloween Surprise so stay tuned!

Will see what we see tomorrow.

Boo BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever.....