Will Nadine Form ? If So Where? Snow Fell Last Night in MTNS NC...PPL Sleeping in Tents and Their Belongings Strewn on Muddy Ground.
A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Yes, there are colorful circles to follow, we will watch and see what they do so more on that further down the blog. Let's first discuss the steering currents and conditions they will deal with as they attempt to develop. There are equally stronger cold fronts that are sliding down...one after another... like strands of pearls across the South edging their way towards Florida. Invest 94L is trying really hard, put on a show for a while and then took a break when the NHC probably began getting interested and then took a break again. When Invests are in an area in the ocean that would seem wet as there is water there.... the atmosphere above it is dry still. As they inch closer to the more moist tropical islands they seem to perk up as if they smell really delicious Jamaican Blue Coffee in the tropical wind and pull it together with dreams of going far and finding fame and getting the best coffee anywhere!
The fly in the ointment is there are cold fronts and cold fronts do a few things:
1. They dig deep pushing high pressure down into the Caribbean.
2. They can pick up a developing storm and swing it out to sea into the Atlantic.
3. They can force the the storm or hurricane to barrel West until the high pressure weakens.
4. They can send a hurricane into Central America.
5. Eventually the steering currents collapse and if the storm is still there... things get interesting.
Who remembers Matthew's stall down by the coast of South America, totally ignoring land interence as ifi it wasn't dumping flooding rains on parts of the South American coastline? Finally, like Sandy it found it's way North navigating through the Windward Passage and grabbed the next cold front North.
Note while things like that can happen this time of year.... they are rare and usually only happen with extraordinary storms such as Matthew and Sandy. Stay tuned. Currently there are not tropical systems making landfall on CONUS (the US coastline) but we may have a threat to PR and the Virgin Islands IF it develops and keeps going the way it's going.
The SW Carib thing is at a yellow 30% and the orange thing is at a higher 60% "almost there" but it's friendly fan behind it is doing that thing that 2020s tropical systems do developing a blob behind it adding to jokes and threats to make a tee shirt with 2 blobs together and a smile. Mike asked if he should do that or... and all I can say is "hahaha" but any girl with Double Ds most likely isn't going to wear it unless really desperate for a guy to notice. Again, look at Matthew up above.... was bizarre and that was in 2016 so maybe it's a 2000 thing as I don't remember them doing this so often, but does make for jokes online and stunning weather art or as some say weather porn.
Okay........where was I? Keeping this Simple... right. The yellow jelly bean has higher chances of going into Central America, unless a piece it gets stuck behind and needs to be watched. Honestly, right?
The orange Atlantic cruiser that came from Africa still bears watching. Models are not consistent in the long game, while the short game is westbound or WNW and again the Islands need to watch it as does Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and I'd add Cuba. Florida will watch it no matter what but Flordians be digging through their closet looking for that strong cold front that's diving down.
First off... It's not on the 7 day by the NHC.
Yes, NHC has seen models.
Yes, I have seen models.
Something could develop but...
..signals mixed and weak currently.
I'm really tired, being honest. Being a "Miami girl" originally... I've got a lot of friends who lived in areas trashed and inundated by Milton's strong winds and storm surge. People love to move away from Miami but they don't want to go too far.... others moved to Carolinas during the great Miami Exodus (IYKYK) then moved back to cute, quiet little West Coast towns not congested cities along the Gulf Coast and so far all checking in are fine but much damage in different ways depending on if a boat is in their yard or a tree fell down inland on their car or just emotionally, phyically drained about to start the process of cleaning up and trying to figure out where to start. Power out in many places, Tampa Bay Rays Stadium lost it's roof that has been through storms not as strong as Milton.
Friends in PSL and Ft Pierce were especially hit hard with tornadoes they never thought they'd see out their backyard window in Florida the way you see them dancing out on Prairie but most people don't realize that when you get up into Central Florida the area is considered a the Florida Prairie and that's why cattle ranching was and still is big up that way. Wide open spaces, once North of the Everglades interspersed with large Live Oak trees and incredible vistas. Yesterday those vistas were filled with visions of Tornadoes dancing across the horizon shocking many, destroying homes and killing 4 people. PSL alone had 17 tornadoes in an outbreak we'd normally would see in Oklahoma or Kansas.
Will see soon how high the water was in every little town and we all hope and pray there were no more deaths other than the ones from the tornadoes. There were many high water rescues all night long across a wide part of West Florida and SW Florida as the area from Tampa/St Pete area down to the Charlotte Harbor area had strong coastal flooding, while Tampa inland had flooding from high rain totals as well. Police not even letting press onto FMB so horrifically damaged they aren't letting anyone across the bridge yet but they said they will soon. Easy to think conspiracy theories as it seems everyone does these days but they are probably going through a search rescue process to make sure people are all accounted for and making sure roads are structually sound. We Will see...who knows... time will tell.
As I said at the top in my post to my friend Phil.... I'm taking a tropical vacation today from dealing with anything tropical here in Raleigh where I moved after getting remarried quite a while ago. Blue skies, a light breeze as the Northern parts of Milton's circulation is offshore somewhere as seen below are making life beautiful here today. It's cool and beautifully fall like and I made a cold PSL (haha Pumpkin Spice Latte not Port St Lucie) and in a while going to make a cordatito but it won't be as good as the ones they make at Chocalada in Hollywood, Florida. If I ever moved back to Florida (not currently on my dance card) I'd love to live in the area near Hollywood Circle with cute stores and places to grab coffee and the beach not that far away but just far enough where storm surge shouldn't be a problem unless it's a huge Cat 4 hurricane as the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane did have storm surge pass the Circle (if you know it) past the railroad tracks quite far inland as that FLL Hurricane I mentioned. Chocolada makes fantastic cordatito and if you know you know... you know my brain doesn't stop thinking Hurricane History.
Tired. Taking a break.
It's hard to really convey how seriously we in the media online are and maybe more so on air and yes I've worked in the media and actually attend events with a updated modern "Press Pass" of sorts and we take it very seriously. It's frustrating to try and drive home a message to someone knowing it can save their life and yet they know what they know and so far no hurricane has ever caused flooding in their neighrhood until it seems Milton as yes their neighborhood was flooded and yes they are alive and people do what they do you can't get everyone to listen to you. You can't even get your kids to listen to you when you say "just stay home" during a tornado event because "Mommy the sky is blue and hasn't even rained and I have to go ...." and will not say why she had to drive to Aventura or why the other daughter decided last night was a good night to go to a program where she'd never gone to one before but was less than a mile from her house. And, yes I knew they'd most likely be okay and were but others were not ...not so far from where they live. Several people who religiously read my blog had parents who refused to leave their well built homes where they'd probably be okay but were spooked by Helene in NC and didn't want them "okay" in a home that would become probably surrounded by high water cut off if there was an emergency. And, to be honest people have heart attacks or fall from ladders during hurricanes while trying to fix that one board that keeps banging when the wind is strong and well you get the idea.
The one commonality in a Hurricane is parents worry on their kids and once kids have parents who are older they worry on their parents. Because we love and care about our family, friends and neighbors.
But...........meteorologists who stay online for hours answering questions with extreme patience as Phil Ferro does on X in every storm know the feeling of frustration that no matter what they say... someone, somewhere, someone's parents somewhere are insisting on "riding out the storm" in their well built home that never had any damage from a hurricane close to the water in SW Florida. While at the same time, then having to deal with people insisting you tell them the track of the next storm that has not formed and where it'll go and he's way more patient than many online I will say that. My response was basically "we will talk about Nadine later as it hasn't formed but we have a landfalling hurricane today, let's take things one storm at a time.
My family lived in Tampa for generations we have a huge history there in Ybor City, Hyde Park and the Tampa Bay Hotel where some of my ancestors had cigar stores in the lobby of what is now the University of Tampa. Tampa is called Cigar City for a reason and most everyone back in the day was involved in the Cigar Business. Milton hitting Tampa is as close as I get to having a hurricane hit Miami for me and I'm tired and grately my Miami still is the Magic City when it comes to hurricanes turning away at the last minute.
So taking a tropical vacation today and will talk on what may or may not come out of the Carib and Gulf of Mexico tomorrow...........manana as the old song goes.
Today is rescue and recovery, search and rescue and then while the Tampa Bay Rays figure out where they what they will do about the destruction of their baseball stadium. I'm going to take a walk around the neighborhood and look at pumpkins on porches and some beautiful dogwood trees that are actually starting to turn colors and maybe I'll be in Florida in November... if I get around to making a game plan vs just playing it by ear and impulsively hopping on a train or a plane or we take a road trip. Hurricane Season is NOT over but ...for today I'm just typing out my thoughts in my weather diary that I let y'all read and once making sure all my storm chasing friends are okay going to take a tropical vacation and rest. Exhaling...more information on tropics tomorrow.
Yes, the name Milton will be recovered. Milton replaced Michael when Michael was recovered.
Much love. Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X. X mostly weather and Insta whatever.
Again hope everyone is okay and hope we don't get any other Major Hurricane Landfalls again this year and even minors have their problems....
A little footnote but according to a NBC News headline as I just looked the death toll is up to at least 9 people and they are still going through the process of search and rescue trying to get to search and recovery.
Not really depressed but it's a great song.
Mike would say it's a Huricane Hangover.
I told a friend online... "not really sure what else I can say today" and that's the truth as I think I've said it all having been concerned on people in the path of a huge Major Hurricane that will carry with it literally a dome of water known as Storm Surge into every bay, creek, cove, river and cute little canal where subdivisions were built to enjoy the beautiful Florida lifestyle and look out on the Gulf of Mexico or nearby marsh with awesome sunrise and sunsets but..... yes Hurricanes happen in the tropics.
Milton has been one long run on disaster in the process of unfolding as it finds new ways to surprise us with multiple RI episodes going fast from Cat 1 to Cat 5 and then he did it again! He dawdled a bit too long down near the Yucatan moving slower than expected and yet finally made the turn and then did rapid intensification again. A strange blob of rain has been riding out in front of Milton soaking, saturating the ground in Florida from Miami to Tampa to Jax way before rains from Milton will arrive and dump more rain causing more Flash Flooding as well as storm surge on top of rain that already fell. Gee doesn't that sound like the set up in Asheville when they got heavy rains before Helene that caused flooding from the French Broad River that was above flood stage and then as that system helped pick up and lift Helene North away from a direct hit on Tallahassee zooming up to the mountains of NC causing historic flooding and trashing parts of Georgia and South Carolina on her way to North Carolina. It was a 1-2 hit that made the flooding that much worse and now here we go again with Milton moving into an area that's had so much rain that my friend in Florida sent me a video of the grass swishing swashing with water below the top of the blades of grass.
Speaking of grass... The Everglades are literally known as "The River of Grass" and they covered a wider area than they do now and yet that area now is covered with cute lakes and canals in often gated communities out in West Broward but it is still low land and can flood fast. If you have shopped at a shopping strip out there this week you know it's been one big lake you have to navigate through to get to Publix.
Now, Milton has a new weapon in his arsenal to cause more danger and destruction as he's become a huge tornado producer and it's only 10:35 AM as I type this and I cannot keep up with the nonstop rolling feed on X of Tornado Warnings with various pictures of tornadoes along side the Interstate where cars are driving along thinking they must be in a movie but no ... it's Just Milton... "Impacts outside the Cone" that the NHC always warns of but everyone still watches "the Cone" ignoring the black line at the top of the Cone warning of impacts outside the Cone. TWC having a problem trying to keep up with Tornado Warnings and covering Milton's approach at the same time... they are trying. X feed looks like images from the movie Twister but in Florida not Oklahoma!