Tropics Today. Getting Help Into Worst Hit Places in W NC and Power Back to FL GA SC and parts of NC and TN. Where Do We Go From Here?

 

Models show conflicting tracks.

Orange circle down 10%

Concept it forms later vs sooner.

(works for me)

Delayed formation...

The 7 day Rain signature shows clues

Where's the most rain?

Gulf of Mexico.

yes, we are busy.

Nothing impending.

Area in GOM a concern.

Most others will stay far away.

Can't promise that but we'll see.

Divide the Image above in half.

West past the Islands.

East of the Islands.

The NOAA map for Oct 3rd thru Oct 7th.

Shows a 'low" crossing FL

Nothing strong.

But time will tell.

You can see the division here in this image.

Mimic shows moisture.

Yes, concerned at what's in Carib.

Looks similar doesn't it?

Adding in something Dabuh said...

..we are old friends going way back.

This sounds more like Francine than Beryl or Helene.

Never easy when 2 vorts are fighting it out.

There is some talk an African Wave...

..could make it across deep into October.

Will see..

Will be back tomorrow.

Or late today if something huge happens.

Note there are named storms I'm not discussing.

I think we all need a break and they aren't near here.

NHC be very busy.

Hopefully aid is getting in to W NC.

E TN also to some degree.

Many in GA and SC without power.

Obviously FL where Helene made landfall lost power.

So here are some thoughts below.

Feel free to read.

Not trying to be morbid but it's morbid times.

Hope and joy when some found alive.

There were 1,000 people missing in W NC.

A Thousand unaccounted for...

so death Toll can go way higher than 100.

Just being honest.

Tragic, devastating.

Why the NHC said "catastrophic"

They rarely use that word.

Katrina like word.

So have a good week.

Stay safe. Stay well.

Try to find joy where you can.

Show love... 

...bring Unity back.

In an unstable, dangerous world weather has often been my haven. Many parts of the world that I spent what seems like a lifetime studying for my degree in International Relations are aflame with conflict and  the chance of escalations that we dare to even think on nut weather has been my safe haven. Storms come, storms go and the beautiful flow seen on the water vapor imagery loop relaxes me the way one would stare at a Lava Lamp.

We got lucky with a quiet MDR that while it did produce storms, many of them stayed safely out at sea. Yes I know there are ships at sea, but my focus is on populated places. But, as I have said repeatedly in this blog "just because the MDR is dead" doesn't mean the hurricane season is over as the SW Carib always produces in set ups such as these. 

Hurricane Mitch.

2nd Deadliest Atlantic Hurricane.

Wikipedia graphic.

Remember the deaths came from TS Mitch.

Not Cat 4 Mitch

We have a similar problem in the mountains.

It was all about WATER not wind.

Mudslides, landslides, flash flooding.

Hurricane Mitch, that formed down in the SW Carib and grew into a monstorous rain bomb spinning with Major Hurricane winds killing an unknown number of people who lived in remote villages when the heavy rains from huge Mitch pounded inland. Water runs downhill carrying with it the lives of everyone in it's way. The toll went from 5,000 to 6,000 to we don't know for sure how many even but the number was set at over 10,000 people. These people and their lives are no less important because they live in a remote village in the mountains and valley's far away from our seemingly civilized world. And, I say this as there is some perception that things like this don't happen in the USA but far away in third world countries. 

They do but they just don't happen as often. And, now days when we can warn people days, weeks ahead of time that such an event is coming we want to believe we have more power here than other faraay places. It's the wrong way of seeing things, especially this year when water and landslide raged in Europe the last few months and dumped mud everywhere in beautiful places no one equates with landslides and flash floods.

America is no different, but we have this illusion we are different and somehow "safer" from deadly disasters. Helene was more like a raging Forest Fire across several states except it raged with water not fire. The result is sadly the same, death, destruction and a sense of loss that is impossible to convey.

This was the worst set up possible for this sort of horror show in real life. A huge monsterous circulation moving fast after landfall with storm surge smashing into cities far from the center in Florida into the common hit Big Bend but rather than going NE out into the Atlantic it took aim at the Appalachian Mountains and the beautiful little subdivisions in Georgia and South Carolina far inland usually fairly safe from hurricanes.

What went wrong in conveying the message is to me a heavy weight as I tried, my friends tried, those of us who write blogs, do videos all with the purpose we might save one life, ten lives and help others be aware of the danger before the media runs with some headline flashing a Hurricane Warning or Flood Warning. The NHC tried hard to convey how the catastrophy awaiting in the mountains was just as important as the storm surge at the beaches at landfall. 

We think we are invincible in ways and yes denial sets in on many levels from the average person living in a quiet holler (like a valley) in the mountains worrying on how cold winter will be and suddenly there's a flash flood unlike any they remember, though they've heard their grandparents talk on but the way the mind works people think "but this is 2024" and somehow huge flooding events like the Johnston Flood only happened in 1889 not 1999 or 20024. We've seen historic flooding in Carolinas from Floyd, Florence and Matthew but rarely have we seen flash flooding that led to landslides that led to mudslides that covered villages, wiped out families and many cars found at the bottom of the debris have dead people in them and yes it'll take a while to dig through mud. Sorry to be graphic, but this is true.

I don't check the political party of a Governor when I say "glad they jumped on this fast" or ask "why did they wait so long to issue a State of Emergency declation" as it's a comment not a political attack or desire to applaud a specific politician. There's a saying I grew up with that is "the buck stops here" and I take it very literally when it comes to leadership. I'm thinking "why wait til Friday after the disaster" when the NHC was very clear stating there would be catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, mudslides in the mountainous areas where Helene would impact fast after landfall as she picked up speed and that is what gets a hurricane dangerous deep inland, when they are moving FAST and she was and her weather was often way ahead of her center's arrival. It's common to issue a State of Emergency before a Hurricane comes and if a county is spared, then it's dropped but by issuing it is ...it hastens the slow bureaucracy of red tape in getting the help train moving both physically with National Guard to money rolling in..  Time is money, ever moment time is lost... it takes longer to get recovery going. As people in the mountains have no power, no water, no cellphone service to call family or call for medical help as I am sure many were seriously injured in the deluge of mud flowing through their towns... cut off with no roads and bridges out so every day of delay getting help to someone can lead to a higher death toll plain and simply. Not a political discussion a practical one as we need to get help in as every minute I type someone, somewhere may be severly hurt and in danger of dying. 

I'm guessing many understand the dangers of storm surge and think because they live far inland in Georgia they are safe from hurricanes. That assumption is been smashed. I have friends who lost part of their home from falling trees and another lost 9 trees in their yard one of which took out there car; luckily that friend was away and while it's horrible to come home to that I'm glad my friend who recently lost her grown daughter who was a young mother living in NY to cancer after losing her husband a few years back. I'd hate to have thought she'd be alone in a house with pines falling and trust me they make a whole racket of noise as I live in the Carolinas and it doesn't take much for softwood pines to crack, drop branches or fall down onto property. When an Oak Tree loses a branch it sounds like a literally explosion and the house can shake even if the branch missed the house.

When you see a car wrapped around a tree at the bottom of Biltmore Village, know it's someone's car that floated away and some of those cars have dead people who tried to get out of the way of a flood, mudslide, landslide too late.

Nothing can stop landslides and mudslides in hurricanes when they slam into mountains, it happens all the time in Haiti and PR and as a person who works with hurricanes I'm always aware of that loss of life even though it's far away from my home in Florida or North Carolina.

It's the ugly side of weather.

Fall is beautiful. Spring is beautiful.

Fresh blowing cooler air in October is heavenly and snow falling in January is awesome.

But too much of anything is often not good.

Weve had too much and still the hurricane season is not over. 

Mike from Spaghetti Models says people get "hurricane fatigue" and I think I have that and yet I'm here.

When we know what the new system in the Caribbean does I'll be on it but trying to breathe today and get back onto some sort of routine. I have some holidays coming up soon and will be offline Thursday and Friday and hopefully I can get some rest then. 

Send money to reliable charities that have the infrastructure to get help where it's needed. 

I believe in prayer so I pray and anyone can think good thoughts and send them ...what you put out into the world usually comes back to you.

Not everything is political and we really need to come together as a people not divided by race, religion or party affiliation.

I was raised a Democrat, my uncle was the party leader in Florida and I was raised with politics in the sense of believing we can do more to help the world, especially those who are in need here close to where we live. I became a Republican because honestly I was pissed at an old boyfriend who was a Democrat running Young Democrats with him and on the day I was asked "what's your party affiliation" I thought and smiled and said "Republican" as some silent, silly victory that would only make sense to a girl just turning 18. I laugh at it to this day. Over time I changed back to Democrat and voted Republican If I thought it was a candidate better suited for the job. My husband is a Libertarian, fun meetings at breweries with intelligent dreamers.. I'll add. I try to explain I'm an Independent. I vote for the candidate I believe will do the best job for that particular job. Sometimes they both are great candidates and sometimes they both suck but the right to vote should never be underestimated. The only thing in 2024 we cannot totally change about ourselves is our blood type; we can lighten our skin a bit or add blush not to look so pale but bottom line seems to be blood type. That's just me. I listen to advice but I don't knee jerk vote for someone in any party that I don't think is the best person for that job. Plain simple. So nothing I say here about response to Helene is of a political nature but a question of why and a sense of sadness so many died. Time is money, time and money can help save lives. But an awareness on a local level of the danger and trying to get out of the way of it ..if possible... is better than no chance of escaping a catastrophe. 

Today I do weather. I keep my political thoughts inside. I do only wish good for my old pal who pissed me off lol and oh yes I'm giggling which has been hard to do the last few days. He's a good guy who seriously cares about trying to help people and make a difference in the world and my life has been better knowing him. But teenage girls do what they do when they are annoyed, I was that girl. 

This is the sign that resonates and I'll remember most from Helene. The UNITY sign from Greenville, South Carolina trying to rise above flooded waters. 

We can either sink or swim ....

...we need to come together.

Especially in tragedy.

Mother Nature isn't a party member.

She's actually a party wrecker.

She comes and wrecks all the fun.

Mean Helene wrecks fun ....

vs snow and fall color and spring flowers.

Love and prayers.

Hopefully my old friend/boyfriend doesn't read this.

He'd be horrified lol. 

I'm laughing. 

Yay!!

Sweet Pumpkin Spice Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather.

Insta whatever...

Ps sorry on any typos...

..allergies bothering me..

Lots of mold here in standing water..

Updated 5 PM TD 12 Forms in Atlantic--------Tropics Today & Post Helene... E NC & W TN No Water, No Power, No Cellphone Service. Accounted For ?? Dead? Hurt? Injured? Where's Government Officials. Where's Media? Send Help NoW!

TD Twelve Formed in Atlantic

Basic cone for now... 

...just pointing it out.

Yes, still watching GOM for possible development.

Again.

 

Starting with what's next.

Then rest of what needs to be discussed.

Kirk and Leslie next names up.

Some models forecast a huge Fish Storm that takes up a large part of the Atlantic and some weaker systems try and gain traction in other places. Two areas close together in GOM try to spin up. CAG and Tropical Wave. Models backing off yesterday's melodramatic landfalls, tomorrow who knows. Too soon to tell. If you want a long range models will show this one..

This is actually not that long range.

SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND WILL.

But it shows the huge hurricane.

Shows small system FL Big Bend.

Shows small area in BOC maybe W GOM

MAYBE being the big word.

Also an EPAC system.

When all is said and done and the last storm chaser has gotten back to home base, the realization of catastrophic damage in Perry Florida is NOT the main story. I won't go long on second guessing actual strength in Perry after landfall nearby, but when storm chasers show videos with Fast Food restaurant's signs still there not blown away and even some lit up (before power went out) and then video shows lots of pine tree damage (soft wood) and branches fallen from huge Live Oak Trees and smashed roofs from winds that toppled a gas station's roof over the pumps but left the poorly built little gas station office looking okay...thankfully.......this was not your regular Category 4 landfall as NWS figures for highest wind gusts were nowhere near as high as feared. A lot filled with mobile homes in good conditions was shown at the height of the storm all sitting there fairly well while the media covered a small portable shed that blew across the highway. Yes, that happens to those sheds in Cat 1 and Cat 2 storms, my neighbors portable shed blew across a fence and landed next to my house in Miami in a high end but very gusty Cat 1 Hurricane, no one blinked it wasn't worthy of national news though a shed dancing it's way across a street is more of a visual. 

Great pics and video.

Lot it came from had mobile homes in good shape.

It's portable for backyard storage.

Not a building.

Cars driving about.

Not your Momma's Cat 4 what can I say?

NHC will figure it out....

...will review.

Not Cat 4 wind wise...

...but along every town to the South..

devastating storm surge.

It was never about the WINDS.

Was ALWAYS about the WATER.

While there is damage, locally this is a horrible hit after previous hurricanes in the last 3 years that impacted this same area, but this is not catastrophic damage consistent with a Category 4. Doesn't take a Cat 4 to knock over this canopy. Glad the devastation was not Major but horrible, frustrating and tragic.

Not posting private pics from my friend's yard in Augusta.

Trees down everywhere, cars smashed and homes damaged.

So this is the part where I only rant bu6 time this morning does not permit me going longer than I am and I'm fairly sure you don't want to read it vs hearing about where the next storm may form.

I remember after Andrew big media stars, Gloria Estefan and others were on the ground and on air everywhere trying to bring attention to what Homestead Florida needed, a small town to the South of Miami in the same county but smashed by a Cat 5 Hurricane. Many people in that area were poor, working class people and retirees who lived in small townhomes. Many lost their lives, many refused to leave (inland from Atlantic Ocean) as they had cats and dogs they could not take to shelters. When I say damage, home lots of townhomes were leveled and remember originally Andrew made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane upgraded when data was found to verify it was actually a Cat 5. After Hugo Oprah took her show on the road when it was all about news and begged people to give even a dollor or $5 and people paid attention. It often takes stars in the entertainment industry to get the word out it seems.

I just heard on the news at least 10 were killed.

Death Toll most likely will go over 100.

Nearing 70 now..

This was all forecast.

But the media talks on landfall.

Media down at the beach.

TWC went to Asheville before....

..to cover flooding day before from frontal system.

The system that grabbed Helene.

French Broard River flooded.

Then all about Florida landfall.

vs Valdosta GA getting hurricane winds...

..way before landfall in FL

Same thing happened in Idalia...

yes TWC had someone there.

Why is no one in E NC

or W TN

??????

Most of my friends from high school left Miami. I did too, I lived in California for a long time before returning then getting remarried and moving to Carolinas. A good percentage of my friends are living in Georgia and parts of the South nearby in small towns, cute towns with a good quality of life FAR FROM THE OCEAN because well we did grow up in Miami. We got all the summer anyone ever needs and saw damage at the beaches and living in a nice little town inland in Georgia or Carolinas seemed safer and generally is...

But hurricanes move far inland and flooding occurs far inland anywhere there's moutains and valleys and anywhere there is a river flood basin and the river basin flooding is very huge in Carolinas and Virginia and if you paid attention in history class that's why the early settlers settled there as the soil was rich as most of the towns were developed along rivers and those rivers have flood basins and they flood badly in Floyd and Florence. 

Inland hurricane force winds are not regular deep in Georgia inland. 

I get it's hard to cover the scope. I get that. Get reporters on the ground, try.

So think on this............during election coverage CNN and FOX show huge maps on their screens showing numbers as they come in of who voted for who in which county and explaining the demographics of a small town with a large college vs a small town without a large college community. Info is distributed across the country during primaries and so I think it's not that hard for them to do this now with Helene and her horrific damage where many vital roads washed out, bridges gone and this covers an area across two states as what happens in E NC doesn't stay there it's part of W TN.

I put on CNN and FOX they are both covering the never ending election. To be air FOX just went to storm coverage though before they were talking on politics. CNN is talking on how politicians are spending money with ads and I'm sure they will do a segment on TN/NC but frankly I'm tired of watching both and tired of hearing about agenda driven news vs showing the news and finding the news and reporting on it!

The news today was a group of local officials gave a short Zoom Media Conference in Buncome County (Asheville and mountain communities) and they look shell shocked, they are short staffed as some cannot participate because power is out, roads are gone and they are trying but where are the government officials of both parties. The Governor (he told people in a press conference "turn around don't drown" sorry that was last hurricane there are no roads to drive on and their cars are down the ravine from the mudslides) the Senators, the Congress people are they afraid I guess in an election cycle to have a bad press moment? Kind of ironic as every candidate has been crawling all over NC vying for votes (both VP and Pres candidate) and yet this Sunday morning, days after Helene made landfall the local emergency managers are trying to figure out how to get water into the area (it's stuck on the other side of the river) and doing the best they can while the lack of higher level, higher profile officials is deafeningly silent.

Seriously, is NC not ready for Prime Time if a hurricane devastates the mountains in ENC but better down at the coastline where I guess they are supposed to wreak havoc?

Look at their faces.

Trying so hard to give facts yet no water.

No food, no cellphone service.

No number of dead because...

..so many unaccounted for.

Understand people unaccounted for and trapped in their homes will die of injuries they could not receive. Why were medics not dropped by helicopters into some of the far reaching areas? Just one example.Why is NC refusing to give a partial death Toll until all area accounted for days after a hurricane? Tennessee also grappling with this in their far Western counties adjacent to Eastern NC.

I have things to do today, so have to get them done in a timely way.

Lastly.........I don't care whose feelings this hurts but the NHC HAS TO CHANGE and STOP the dropping the cone because the winds are not hurricane strength and they only track the winds, the center, etc. This happens all the time, and yes the media can interview the local NWS but the media doesn't want to and it is what it is and NHC is tasked to cover the hurricane so stop pulling the plug because you can track the center swirling but it's no longer a Tropical Storm.  At hurricane conferences I have had long discussions with officials on how a hurricane is more than the center and the winds in the center and the point of landfall and flooding is often the story after landfall. I had long conversations with Bill Read who at the time was director of the NHC that inland flooding gets ignored always and how much of a problem it was and as he was moved over from the NWS he knew up close and personal the dangers of inland flooding and how upsetting it is the media is lined up at the beach doing live shots before a hurricane, and yet once the catastrophic flooding inland occures most of the media is gone. Note you only see one reporter but they are lined up ten feet apart in front of the beautiful beach, near landfall. Though it's true the media often goes back in to areas to show it but usually only when it's a sexy, popular place which is why you keep getting shown Biltmore Village partially underwater but not the homes of poor people living where they can for generations whose home, car and most of the tree went downhill in a mudslide and quite frankly they may find their missing loved one after the mud is dug out and you haven't heard from them as cellphone towers went down hill with their cars and they do not have power, water, cellphone service nor access to medical help as they are cut off living through hell. 

But sure keep showing picture of homes in Cedar Key smashed sadly in the water and talk on trying to pin down landfall before the storm and the guy rescued luckily from his boat with his dog.

Let's talk Helene. 

Just because their Cone ends... 

..and wind center went N and NW

Doesn't mean that everyone in the path ..

of the flooding rains was going to be okay.

Where was the media before.........

...when forecasters knew and predicted.

Flooding in the Mountains in their forecast.

Oh right down on the beach for the sexy shot.

Where is the media now?

Right, replaying videos posted on X

Where are all the governement officials?

Waiting for Monday morning business hours??

Pathetic, sadly pathetic.

Happened in Floyd in NC too.

Eventually they show up.

Send in the Marines...

Ps..contact your local government 

beg them to send help now.

Send WATER

It's been days.

????? 

To be continued.

Death Toll 30 and Climbing.... Day of Search and Rescue for Victims Across Multiple States - The Name Helene Will Be Retired, It's Not Even a Question. Rocky Mount Has Destructive Tornado from Helene After Having a Deadly Tornado From TS Debby. Can't Make 2024 Up...

 

The scope and size of Helene is wild.

Boggles the mind.

Yet here in NC we have wild weather.

Tornadoes formed not far from here.

Heavy rains blasted through..

Random strong gusts than quiet.

See the dark orange cells lined up.

Producing tornadoes.

But we do have a flood warning.

So I'm under the orange and magenta ...

Sporadic cells still spinning thru here.

Though for the most part it's quiet now.

I always say weather is locational, and with regard to Hurricane Helene whose "center" is no deep inland to my West and yet her weather is dumping torrential rains in the mountains of North Carolina and the line that went through here produced a tornado where several people are seriously injured and 14 buildings were destroyed in nearby Rocky Mount. Trees are down in the Raleigh Durham area on random roads, especially trees damaged and weakened by Tropical Storm Debby and he No Name Storm recently. We are in the flow for weather trouble. 

Helene is in Kentucky.

Her remnant weather is in North Carolina.

Moving up into the Virginias.

We all know that Helene made landfall in the Big Bend, not far from Perry that's become a hurricane system  magnent of late. Do I really have to mention there's another system possibly forming from the CAG?  Maybe but it's too soon to be sure where that system will go. We have ideas. GFS takes it to its favorite party city of New Orleans and nearby Biloxi and every town in between. The Canadian aims there then slides over to an area near Big Bend, again. ICON has something in the BOC. It's really too soon to tell, the whole environment is sort of chaotic and in a day or two we can talk on the next possible hurricane.

I'm being honest, my mind is mush and I've been so busy telling relatives "I'm fine, really..." and watching the local weather drama it's hard to even sit and take the whole scope of Helene in ... 

Valdosta got slammed a second year in a row, but this time stronger than Idalia.  Inland Georgia, far from the GOM and the Atlantic Ocean.

I don't know the various data as there is too much of it and I have serious weather in the area as I type this so keeping this short. 

I'll do an update and a look back at Helene on Sunday. She made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane, crazy low pressure yet her winds were not felt much on ground level by official sources. Strong winds, but not what we expected to see and yet her flooding that carried high expectations was exceeded by most expectations. I said this over and over, it's not about the exact strong wind with Helene moving fast like a hit and run accident in the Big Bend, but the flooding and storm surge was on historic levels and the flooding from rainfall up in the mountains or many places with elevation that are hilly such as Atlanta has been of epic proportions. Rescue crews are going from house to house in places in the Atlanta area currently and we just learned someone died in Charlotte when a tree fell on their home. 

Tropical Storm Debby did this part of NC

There was a deadly Tornado in Rocky Mount.

Tropical Storm Debby Damage above.

Rocky Mount Tornado from Helene below.

2024 will be remembered in Rocky Mount...

Death was an unpopular guest that arrived with Hurricane Helene. Yes, because it was a Category 4 Hurricane but more so because it's footprint went across all of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginias and it's naked center is now residing in Tennesee and. Kentucky. And yet..... she's still raining here in North Carolina. There is historic flooding in Asheville and by the way all of that water in the swollen rivers will end up downstream with river flooding all the way down towards the coast where towns were recently flooded from the No Name Storm. I'm tired. The No Name Storm should have been Helene and this should have been Isaac but I don't get a vote in naming, just saying as I see it from going through it.

I'll be back Sunday.  This is my life today and I have people coming for dinner and another few relatives to call back to tell them "the flooding was in Asheville and Rocky Mount got the tornado that missed us" and I'm going to literally rest tomorrow. 

Remember this when I say it...the hurricane season is NOT over, it's not over and we have a long way to go before we can sleep without worrying on more CAG hurricanes from the SW Caribbean and  named storms that form close in from waves or decaying frontal boundaries that begin spinning.

Hurricane Helene has become Super Storm Helene as she's a disaster currently beyone measure.

2 points

1. I said that when the MDR shut down that the SW Caribbean would deliver large, deadly hurricanes and this was what I meant. I said it again and again the last few months while people bickered about the problems with African Waves and a dead MDR. I said, wait the SW Carib will deliver and it did. Sadly.

2. I said over and over on X and it's hard to really understand that "yes this will make landfall as a Major Hurricane" but the attention should be to the larger flooding catastrophy from storm surge to river flooding to rainfall flooding to flash flooding up in the mountains after landfall in Florida. 

Yes, the barometer was dropping like a rock and yet her winds were not intensifying as most "normal" hurricanes do and she had problems almost to the end as a Cat 4 closing off her eye and that's not something "normal" as normally by the time we have a 80 MPH hurricane everyone's screaming "I see an eye, I see an eye!!" and yet we had 130 MPH winds, barometric pressure that showed an even stronger hurricane and yet winds were not intensifying until the very end as if it was some 2 Minute Drill to win a football game and go into the Playoffs. 

Helene won the honor of being retired, her name will be retired trust me.

Helene won the honor of being a very strange, huge hurricane that brought danger, death and destruction across multiple states and it will take a very long time to even know how many people died and how much damage there was and I say that as people were on sailboats out on Tampa Bay where one man and his dog were rescued during the storm by the Coast Guard.  Hard to even explain most of what we have seen and yes, there's another possible hurricane on the way and the season is far from over. 

Remember I said "backloaded season" and this is the backloaded hurricane season I promised we would have... sorry just some things you know and I know hurricanes

Prayers for everyone who lost family members and friends, homes or businesses and possibly a bit of sanity as Helene destroyed much in her path from trees to homes to highways to roads washed out and most of all she destroyed the sanity of many people and it will take a long time to recover from the size and scope of this tragedy. It's a lot to process, even for me here safely in Raleigh processing that in 2024 we have had a Tropical Storm, a No Name Storm and Helene's leftovers and I don't think we are done yet.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

Ps...Sorry for any typos.........I just can't really. I'll edit later and update on the trouble in the tropics that might be developing on Sunday.

3PM - 120 MPH Major Hurricane Helene.......Upgraded to Major Hurricane!! Forecast to Make Landfall Soon... NHC Forecasts FAST TRACK Speed on Approach. Moving NNE at 16 MPH - Massive FLOODING STORM SURGE Dangers!

 Major Hurricane Helene

Helene looks a bit tired.

Being silly.

It has an eye...

....looks a bit bloodshot.

Helene has fought to clear dry air out.

Been an ongoing battle.

She seems to have won the battle.

CAT 3 Hurricane.

You can see here...

EYE seems closed off.

And her winds went up.

Major Hurricane.

Waiting on the 5 PM Advisory.

Stay tuned.

* * * 

Noon

Close up and personal

Right sided system.

Bulges to the right with TS WINDS

(mustard yellow)

Note distance between now and next point.

Forecast to pick up speed fast.

Major at landfall.

This disclaimer is HUGE

and most impt with HELENE

Satellite image vs the Cone.

Shows where the weather is ...

..and where it's going.

NHC tracks the center circulation.

Remember that.

This is Helene

Wrapped up like a Hurricane finally.

EYE in the middle

Caught by the general flow...

pulling WEATHER UP 

Before Hurricane & TS winds hit...

....rain & flooding is already there.

close up of Interactive 11 AM CONE

yet the cone........

...follows the "center" of Helene.

It's "eye" yet weather goes WIDE.

This is my concern...

..the message is mixed.

Sends a bad signal in ways.

After landfall watch the WEATHER

not a decaying swirl that NHC is tracking.

Tho with Helene WINDS will be strong inland.

Then... it decays in a dancing drama...

not discussing the whole Fujiwhara dance.

Hovers over Tennessee for dayssss

IF forecast verifies

Following the WEATHER

You need to follow your local warnings.

In Florida and Georgia

Tennessee

Carolinas.

Up the coast...

Energy from Helene

merges with the frontal trough.

I am not going to chase a naked center.

I'm going to follow the WEATHER

As WEATHER more impt.

Next 36 hours forecast to have strong wind.

Impt if you are in the CONE to pay attn

Going wide tho...

www.weather.gov

Warnings will move up the coast.

The grid below is on Spaghetti Models.

Mike makes awesome grids!

www.spaghettimodels.com

To keep this simplistic I am going to just call this a frontal boundary as the many meteorological terms can become confusing and distracting. it's raining up the whole East Coast way ahead of Hurricane Helene's landfall while she is still trying to consolidate her eye (as per 11 AM NHC Discussion) and we wait to see what really happens in real time with Helene as she is making landfall later today. Doesn't get any faster than that so NHC discussion is below and not going to harp on it. There is a forecast, it is dependent on how Helene consolidates. They are doing the best they can with a very difficult set up and a very odd 105 MPH Hurricane with low barometric pressure still trying to consolidate it's eye completely. On one level it's not important as the main concern here despite the strong Major winds is the widespread flooding Helene will cause far from the cone and in the path of the eye; devastating flooding and then as it moves inland from both torrential rain and elevation the flooding moves inland up the hills, mountains and valleys prone to flash flooding and mudslides.

People ask if the eye is wobbling.

Some Mets I respect feel it's wobbling East.

Could Helene come in E of current Cone?

NHC running out of time to change it.

Will see at 5 PM.

While it has an eye... it's an odd eye.

NHC said much depends on how ...

..."inner core can contract"

shown above.

NHC official bottom line.

I'll update at 5 PM

Or if anything new comes up.

Moving on...

The torrential tropical rains....

..enhance the already complex set up.

Tennessee and Kentucky!

All of Georgia.

Did I mention this is the 5 day map.

Thru October 1st from NOAA.

I tend to look at the Hurricane as a whole package of impacts, way more than who gets the strongest winds and the exact location of landfall. Especially a hurricane as huge as Helene that is currently producing recorded Tropical Storm gusts far to the East in Miami. While Apalachee Bay may have record storm surge (since we began keeping records) areas to it's East will get inundated and flooded as well and the water will move up the St. Marks River and I'm concerned on Cedar Key that's getting close to twice what it got in the last big hurricane last year. Down the whole way to Tampa there's water rise and flooding in small communities and flooding is the worst as in Florida's hot humid climate the mold begins growing immediately.  It took retirees I knew well in Key West several years to move back into their homes in Key West after Wilma, as they were on a limited budget and the big money in Key West had the professionals tied up and giving bonuses. I know it's hard to believe but many in Key West and beautiful places such a as Cedar Key are not all billionaires who own a pretty vacation home they come to stay in during a few months in the Winter. 

When I say "worst" I mean aside from having a Category 5 Hurricane level your house like a Twister the way Andrew did in parts of Homestead. After that...........water damage and flooding is harder to get out and fix than to repair the roof and damages in the yard.

Going wider...

Going really wider.

Hurricane Season is not over yet.

Stay safe!

Helene's center STILL far South.

Naples had moderate flooding.

Helene forecast to ZOOM towards landfall.

That's the forecast......

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm

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