PTC8 Still.... Name Helene Is STILL in Play It Seems. Some Tropical Thoughts from 3 AM - Height of the Season That Reads Like A Broadway Drama.... Potential Tropical Cyclone & Decayed

 

PTC8 close to crossing land.

Cool air here and tropical rain.

Sounds of steady rain.

Strong breeze in squalls.

Using NHC Interactive Cone.

Strongest weather to N/Right of Cone.

(Bryan Norcross talking on this ...)

I'm from Miami ...

"in Bryan Norcross we trust!"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone Link from Wikipedia explaining when and why NHC began naming Subtropical Storms that are often Hyrbid versus truly tropical. 

Being honest, taking the day to just enjoy the beautiful mix of cooler air and tropical rain squalls from my balcony in Raleigh while sipping some pumpkin flavored tea I bought at Sprouts. Southport is getting pounded by rain and lightning. To the North of our No Name Storm there is flooding going on along the coast already. Again much of the weather is to the right of the the track of the storm as the NHC tracks the approximate center of PTC8.

There is a strong chance that something comes out of the Caribbean in the next week to 10 days and it could impact Florida, possibly Cuba depending on where exactly it forms, sets up and moves and depending on where it crosses Florida it could also impact the Carolinas as in "let's do it again" as it's a popular pattern and song in 2024. More on that later, today is all about PTC8 that may not become Helene but do I care? I have rain, dancing pines and cool air... I'm almost in love!

I wrote the rest of the blog earlier at 3 AM when I couldn't sleep and at some point my battery died and no I didn't notice as I was writing, working my way through my thoughts one word at a time. Luckily, it's still there and I am going to print it out and shove in a box somewhere to read again :) 

I'll update any new news on PTC8 if it's newsworthy. This is the 2nd system that came inland towards the general Raleigh area and I'm taking the day off to watch and go out somewhere soon to get some pics and video. I'm also going to proof read it before I print it but it is what it is... my messy, busy mind at 3 AM unable to fall back asleep and realizing in ways how much I have become a Carolinian!

3 AM thoughts on 2024 Hurricane Season.

This blog post may get hiden away somewhere or I may print it out old school style and shove it in a box somewhere to read again later in another year when looking back on the year that was 2024 in the Tropics. 

Does Grok ever get it right? Do we care?
I finally tried Grok.
Sounds like a beer.

Winter beer.

Does it ever get anything right?

But hey it's pretty right?

We got around all those copyright pictures!

The reason our world is a big, blue, beautiful spinning ball is because we have an atmosphere that moves and spins and rearranges itself and is not stagnant. Seasons come and go somewhere within their normal parameters. Energy from the equator in early September begins to take shape and travel a long, circuitous route and that normally aids in the change of the seasons. Over time, and I am talking centuries, Equinox Storms we’re recorded in diaries by candlelight by pen and scroll and people waxed poetic about the huge storm from the West Indies that had punched it's way into their bay or bayout suddenly one September evening without much warning or fanfare. The storm rearranged the ships in the harbor and they wrote of the many rescues that were made and listed how many people were saved or died and the sort of damage the storm did to the trees and vegetation. Vegetatation in those days was important, both as crops in the field and the crops in the gardens people kept in their yards. They recorded if small fresh tree branches broke off versus old dead branches were pruned and whether the tree itself fell down or if it was ripped from the ground and they added they had not seen tree damage as such in the last 8 years. Data was recorded, saved and sometimes shared with other like minded souls who sat up by candle light recording the daily and weekly weather at 3 AM. 

They didn't spend three weeks watching a tropical wave with potential roll off the coast Africa and stuggle to stay alive in Saharan Dust that they followed on satellite imagery nor wondered and worried if this wave was going to die or redevelop closer in where it might hit land versus being a Fish Storm. Unless there were seafarers in their lives, they never really knew if a ship went down in a Fish Storm and they never knew if there was an Invest for a vigorous tropical wave.  They just knew the young peach tree snapped out of the ground in the middle of the night at the height of the storm and they found a ship that had gone aground and after taking the goods off and wondering if anyone on board may have survived they recorded the contents of the ship and made good use of anything that was worth using. And, this scene was repeated from the Florida Keys up towards the Carolinas and all the way through the region of the Potomac River Basin and sometimes even all the way up to New England....where ever some West Indies Cyclone spewed out it's last breath before cooler air began to drain down through the region and help deliver a change in the seasons from Fall towards Winter, with Summer far in the distant past.

Today we watch incipidly weak waves make their way West to great online fame as everyone online watches and debates and wait for the next model run to see if this little wave is going to go the distance or if maybe the next wave will light the spark for the very strange 2024 hurricane season. 

People ask what purpose hurricanes serve and why can't we just kill them off like a bad character that drags down the plot line that we could definitely do without. Hurricanes are a needed part of the story, the drama of weather and the atmosphere and they help rearrange things properly and keep the air moving, the seasons moving and lastly Planet Earth is not a stagnant planet. Winter Storms do the same thing in their season.

To everything there is a season and a purpose under heaven as the old saying goes from the Bible or a song you liked once upon the time. 

Turn, turn, turn as the saying and the song goes on... and our planet spins, the storms spin and life goes on as we know it on Planet Earth. And, sadly sometimes storms do horrible damage and then we learn to pick up the pieces and move out of Homestead or use the insurance money to add a pool and put in new windows with hurricane approved glass and storm shutters. If you were in Miami in 1993... you would know I'm no just being silly at 3 AM, but realistic as many left town and many stayed. After the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane a train was sent to South Florida carrying coffins to bury the dead and free passage out of Miami was offered to anyone leaving and many left fast going back up to Ohio where winter weather suddenly didn't seem to bad. FPL trucks drove around town offering jobs to anyone who would hop on the truck and help string eveything back together again.

2024 will either go down as one of the weirdest, messed up years in the hurricane world that was given high expectations... like high bouncing ball expectations and yet ended like an intercepted pass thrown by a suddenly injured Quaterback whose team watched the game slip away. It's not a shut out, but it's not the season that was promised. The Hail Mary Pass either gets caught and wins the game with seconds left on the scoreboard as time i running out or it falls in the endzone admist a group of players on both teams trying to catch it all all crashing into each other.

September 16th, 2024
Even the satellite loop is broken.
Kind of says it all...
....yes this is a loop.

It barely looks like it's moving.

Horrific storms slammed into Europe this week causing epic flooding with videos I didn't verify yesterday as I didn't sleep the night before and we all have our own priorities.

I live in inland North Carolina, not in the mountains and not at the beach and yet we can take a drive in either direction and see both. Winter weather sometimes gets us and sometimes tropical weather makes it inland as it did this year when Hurricane Debby was near ending her road trip she began back in Africa. 

It's truly an incredible process when it works right. When it doesn't we have horribly long hot spells and droughts or a never ending hurricane season like in 2004 when hurricanes tried to seperate Florida from the rest of the Union. They tried, but Florida is still there hoping to get lucky before the hurricane season is over. Florida, forever scared of the I storm... Ida, Irma, Idalia, Ivan...long list. 

I'm not really going to try and explain storm chasers to you ...because either you get it in your gut or you never will. I can wax poetic on facing storms in the eye and living to tell the tale and talk endlessly on the howl of a hurricane and the sideways rain that lashed the coast as waves pounded the beach and squalls repeatedly lashed the land with torrents of rain and debris and everything seemed in motion like a scene in the Wizard of Oz but you weren't in Kansas but a beach in Florida Keys or Louisiana or the Carolinas. 

When I was young I learned most of this long soliloguy from Cat on a Hot Tin Roof that was written by the incomparable Tennesee Williams. I got parts of the drama, though mostly I wanted to get the words right and follow my cues and hope I did it justice and I looked good all at the same time. I loved Cat on a Hot Tin Roof as we'd do old dramas often and it was more alive and less depresssing in ways than The Glass Menagerie. Somewhere, even today someone is learning scenes from Tennessee Williams for a High School Play the way you would Shakespeare which I did as well but this is not about Romeo and Juliet nor 10 Things I Hate About You or Taming of the Shrew.

I woke up at 2 AM to loud noises after falling asleep early because I really needed to sleep and it really didn't matter if I didn't see the 11 PM advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Number Eight. I woke up rested and cleaned the kitchen and was kind of happy I could go online and watch the loops loop and wonder what exact track the potential Helene would take and write a bit just for fun.

In truth this matters to me as I live in the path of the once and future maybe Helene and as we rarely get real weather in Raleigh I'm happy to get any and having 2 tropical systems this far inland is sort of a bonus in an otherwise empty season that didn't live up to it's potential as forecast as we all know 

I love to chase sometimes and I love to write always and I love to research Hurricane History and whether it's a season that verified some forecast or not, it's a season in history and if you are still reading this then you must be into history or one of my best friends here. Thanks.  

My phone lights up telling me there's a "Flood Watch Until Tuesday" and I really do get why people take the Weather Apps off their phones :(  

This season is not over and everyone is tired of being told that and yet it's true. The very hot waters of the MDR did not deliver and La Nina dawdled doing odd things in odd places, but is seemingly getting it's act together for either one wild Hail Mary Hurricane or a Winter that some people may not forget if they live in the place where La Nina delivers. 

Weather thrills. 

Weather disappoints.

Weather surprises us. 

And, life goes on... 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Insta

Twitter mostly weather..

Insta whatever.........

Updated 4:15 NHC Issuing PTC8 Cone Forecasts This To Become TS Helene Before Landfall Near SC/NC Border........................Sunday Afternoon. I Should NOT Have Stayed Home For the Panther Game. Being Creamed By Field Goals... OMG. Watching Invest 95L Will The Real Gordon Stand UP???

"signifcant uncertainity in the center...

...position ...best guess ... NW 7 MPH.

Wind probs range from Danville VA... Raleigh...Rocky Mount then stronger probabilities near the coast and inland towards Charlotte. In truth it's still kind of blobby and pulling together and conditions far from the center could deteriorate across a wider area while we watch Helene make landfall down near the SC/NC state line. Unless this really pulls together into a tight ball where weather would be concentrated but there is low confidence in anything other than it's going to do the Carolinas (North and South) and Virginia watch out. NHC does forecast PTC8 to become Tropical Storm Helene before landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/152057.shtml?

Rain across a wide area.

Intense rain down by the coast.

I'd add in here Ocean Isle Beach...

Hazards show above.

Flash flooding potential ....

I'll update later.

Know someone, somewhere...

...will get the buik of this weather.

In the cone or out of the cone.

Time will tell ...

As for Gordon.....

...Gordon been misbehaving.

NHC downgraded it to TD

Down the road could be TS again.

Lots of discussion about shear....

..convection far from center (ya...)

(Perhaps they will relocate center?)

Who knows, it's 2024

Anything goes...

Please keep reading ....

...thought it should be upgraded.

But didn't think NHC would.

Glad they did... better they err on side of caution.

Below is from 4 PM

* * *

I Waited til 4 figured ok... FINE.

No Cone.

But I guessed wrong.

PTC8 Cone at 5 PM
for Invest 95L

How bout that. 

PTC 8 Cone.

Advisory. 
Good call ... I think.

Err on the side of safety.

Will update.

Keep reading my blue funk mood is gone.

Great song at the end really.

* * * 

Not to scale perfect obviously.

This is obviously a hard situation to properly explain, but IR shows flaring up close to land over warm waters of Gulfstream ...there's been 2 competing centers for a while, wondering if they are coming together. Francine 2? Not just Francine, seen it a few times this year.  

My concern is that every storm like this one, especially the No Name Storms but even the named ones someone dies at the beach...especially in off season when lifeguards not there as in summer... usually, but not always a tourist unfamiliar with local weather but not always. Often a father or relative goes in after a child and gets swept away trying to save the child that have so live with their father died trying to save them. Last storm 2 out of state tourists checked into hotel rooms and ran out to the beach, and never came back.  Obviously a name heightens awareness of dangers, but not always and No Name Storms with conditions similar to Tropical Storms are even harder to explain to people who connect "No Name" with "NO PROBLEM.........." and that's always a problem.

Here in Raleigh enjoying having my windows open and watching small fast moving storms pass through fast, more like strong showers really. But it's that fast hit and run set up that makes it feel more tropical than frontal activity or just a steady flow from the South as a warm front backs up from SC to NC. 

Not easy being NHC as everyone can access satellite imagery, models, radar and microwave and everyone has an opinion. 

I wish there was some sort of Special Statement they could put out for Quasi Storms with No Names when they feel it doesn't warrant a name. And, don't say "we can hand it off to the NWS" becauase as much as I read local forecast discussion, I am one of the few I know who even check it and local channels do NOT rush to interview the head of the NWS for Raleigh or Wilmington or Myrtle Beach. Just the reality, just the truth ... sad but true, just the way it is...

But hey we got models :( 

Models drew a heart ....

...aw how not really cute.

U can't make up this hurricane season.

I promised myself I'd stay on top of football. I love football. My Dolphins aren't doing very well and with Tua out last week, who knows what the future holds. A team with promise but promises are rarely kept and they lose way more than they should. As for Carolina, my new local team, I'll admit sometimes I watch Cam Newton on the top of Twitter doing his thing, having fun, being Cam Newton. Awesome player. But, there have been many players who have come and gone since he left and every season is promising, but promises are not kept. I need a 3rd Team.. I'm open to suggestions. I have narrowed it down to a few. 

Easy to say what's wrong with a football team.

Missed signals, missed plays.

Too many penalties.

QB passes a ball that hits receiver on the numbers and receiver drops it. (no excuse for that... not really)

Poor Offensive Line can't give the new supposedly good QB time to throw the ball. 
Special Teams is out there but not making big plays.
Too many interceptions or fumbles.
Time of possession makes a difference, you can't win if you aren't possessing the ball. 

 I can go on and on and on... 

Players don't connect well as a group and lack that feeling of TEAM Work.

List goes on and on and on.

But when it comes to 2024 Hurricane Season? Lots of possible reasons, lots to research and even when it looks like we know what will be... a wrench is thrown into it or a Cat 5 in early July hits an Island rarely hit by a hurricane. 

Tell you one thing. In football I can read a coach, I can tell when the coach is just not on his game and I can tell when a team looks beat and lethargic.

Naked swirl, circulation to the left.

Shadow Tropica Storm to the Right.

Heart in the middle.

Got some Stephen King mystery there... 

... maybe Gordon is not done yet.

Going to make dinner.

Mexican!

Leave another game on.

See what NHC does at 5 PM.

But as they aren't even at cherry red

Unless they do some PTC...

...doubt it.

will see

Either way I have a storm day tomorrow.

Not blazing hot weather.

It'll help leaves turn as heay cloud cover.

Some rain, some wind.

The tall pines out my window are swaying.

Love weather.

Love football.

Last thought.......

This is a bad set up....

..this much moisture not good.

If something forms down the way... 

... the path is clear and evident.

will worry on that later.

LV tied 23/23 with Baltimore Ravens.

Go team........

Besos BobbiStorm

For Gordon...

Carolina Storm. Does It Get a Name? Helene Is That You? Or Do We Call with the "IT" Storm? And, Is ISAAC Out There IF This is Helene? Model Discussion. Is Helene a Carolina Girl or Florida Girl?

 First off....
...from SpaghettiModels

Let's start at the very beginning.

NHC won't bust out the red crayon?

50% orange or bust it seems.

Rumor Recon will take a look...

Let's talk about Earthnull, that shows a closed center offshore and TWC crew is waiting at Wrightsville Beach.  As you can see all the congruent lines show a strong pressure gradient that this storm with or without an upgrade to Helene will deliver a punch to the Carolina Beaches (more homes could fall into the ocean up by OBX) and anyone taking a walk on the beach will get the full windblown effect. This piles, pounds waves onto the Carolina Beaches and depending on timing if it stays over the warm water of the Gulfstream it could intensify into a Tropical Storm (or TD) or just become another memorable No Name storm for an area that was recently impacted by Tropical Storm Debby. 

If it didn't have the closed low look I'd totally understand the NHC wanting to look away. Hey I get it, I look away all the time as I refuse to look at African Waves. But we have a forecast for 30 MPH winds in Raleigh (gusts probably) but with all the tortured twisted branches on the oak and maple trees from Debby, it'll bring down more if stronger models verify. This isn't Miami, doesn't take a hurricane to flood, take down trees and cause power outages. 

Models show a mixed story as some take it further inland while others keep it closer to the coastline. The models also show possible problems way down the road for Florida as something could form in the Caribbean and catch a ride up over Florida or around Florida and then roll up the East Coast. I'm not saying that will happen, but with the current pattern favoring development from the Caribbean over African Waves that's a distinct possibility not just because models hint at it.... but because he pattern itself doesn't seem to be going away any time soon. 

Let's start with Baby Bear.

NAM a short term model...

..if ever it was good to use.

Shows it coming in ...

...moving inland.

Impacting both Raleigh & Charlotte.

A long tail is curious... more could follow?

h

Mama Bear ... EURO 

Brings "IT" in over Raleigh.

VA gets part as does SC

Then for the rest of the week....

...it acts like the GFS.

So much drama.... 

..dancing all over the Carolinas.

hmnnn

The ICON is Papa Bear this year.

"IT" also does Raleigh....
...then goes up towards MTNS

Then..dances around similar to the EURO.

(hate when steering currents go wonky)

Last but not least.

We are going to look at the CMC

Calling this one Aunt Gladys Bear... 

(long range, entertainment value)

Hey go for broke ...ya know.

My 1st silly thought after "oh no" 

was.....

BINGO! 

4 in a row diagonal 

What do I think?

I think it's too soon to tell. I think if there's a year to worry on something coming up from the Caribbean this would be the Year. Obviously, South Florida should stay alert as it's not the only model hinting at this and the Ensembles are singing Moon Over Miami ...but Miami is also called the Magic City so let's not think on this too much. If this was the EURO or maybe the ICON there's be a yellow circle with zero percent, but Canadian is the crazy but fun cousin of the GFS so.. just no... we are far from being out of the woods. Some models take a low from down below, near Florida and up towards Carolina again and continues on it's way ... up the coast perhaps. 

Oh ... well Oh is for October and the long range GFS decides that by turning the calendar, magically the tropics come alive including a MDR wave as two systems form beneath two high pressure areas. Maybe they just collide. Nice open door to follow each other out to sea. I'm not ready for October yet personally. 

If you know me you know me.  No not singing that song. 

I'm very skeptical of anything rolling off of Africa and making it across to threaten us, but GFS never says never. 

ICON this season has been the new EURO ... 

The Storm off the Carolinas is a done deal, does it get a name? Depends on the mindset of the NHC and truly I think it should considering Chris got a name and they've been promising Gordon won't last long for a while putting out discussion showing it weakening to a TD at best. Could bounce back later but who knows for sure, apparently not the NHC as they are nervous on pulling the plug on Gordon.

IF the Carolina Storm is Helene it'll be a local event. No big time chasers are going to rush to greet it. I'd be content in Raleigh to get another Tropical Storm this year, maybe go down to the beach... or somewhere near there. 

Many experts insist the season gets busy last half of September, as I just paid my Saks bill I can definitely say "this is now the 2nd half of September" so not going to hold my breath til October.

Love weather. Love a wild beach or river or a wide open view from the Lake to make me smile and breathe or is it breathe and smile.... 

Keep the hurricanes away from my kids in South Florida and I'll be happy.

Winter is down the road and so whatever we get at this point from the tropics is icing on a little tiny, delicious cupcake with less calories and is just the treat to go with a cup of coffee or Pumpkin Spice Latte. My daughters sent me these for Mother's Day ... cute... don't think Melissa has one with a hurricane on it tho you can get GF and Dairy Free but they are not free as they do cost money.  

https://www.bakedbymelissa.com/gifts.html Cute, delicious and on Instagram of course. 

Not saying Helene is a cupcake .... 

...or a walk in the park 

(I know which park I wanna go to for it)

IF this is Helene.

My bottom line.

NHC named Chris... BOC rates I guess.

Few are even looking at Gordon.

Earthnull bottom left is closed center.

Subtropical maybe...

... transforms to Tropical?

Maybe?

Helene is a good name for it.

Just my thoughts.

If Recon verifies.

Have a wonderful day.

Long blog but promised models.

Thoughts on down the tropical road.

I do look at models sometimes.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever.

TD7 Only Cone in Town! Waiting For It's Crown!! Could Carolina No Name Storm Steal it's Crown? Stay Tuned Raining in Raleigh This Morning...Sign of Things to Come

 

Only Cone in Town

TD7 

In the Atlantic we have this dance going on, there's a rhfythm out there... 

                                         One comes off low........   Next one comes off HIGH!!!

                 Next one comes off low.... 

                                   

Have trouble really believing in these waves rolling off Africa.
They are on their way with bravado and their NHC circles

But will one really get across the pond?

Up close in the East Atlantic.

Wide Atlantic below.

It's as if you could draw a line down the Atlantic Basin. Before the 70 yard line, and after the 70 yard line and if they manage to make it to that golden point...they have a chance. There are hidden dangers from dust to upper level Low's and shear is there where it's not supposed to be this year. Watch the waves, but don't sell your soul to any of them thinking this will be the one to go the distance. One may, most will not and we will wait to see that Wave that flares up as an overachiever late in life closer to our shores. 

Francine is gone, and yet not really totally gone. Yesterday I woke up to this technicolor sunrise and this morning an extremely loud, determined lightning bolt hit somewhere near my house and it sounded more like a bomb than lightening. Nothing for a long time after that... so quiet I thought I was dreaming, and the the rain came, heavy, steady with an almost lyrical beat. Distant flashes of lightning could be seen in the predawn darkness. Needless to say I was awake early this morning. And, I thought..."Francine is that you or is that a trailer for the movie running soon in the Carolinas?" and I smiled.

The yellow circle over the Carolinas may deliver tropical like weather on the edge of the seasons changing, on a boundary line with few possibilities and an almost firehouse like set up that'll pound the Carolinas and maybe parts of Virginia with an onshore flow and we will know soon enough. Does it get a name? Is it Gordon or Helene? NHC has yet to crown Tropical Depression 7 as of 7 AM.

Last night watching the horrible Dolphin game, which was truly horrible unless you are a Buffalo fan, it occurred to me as I was listening to my best friend talk on the phone what a coincidence it is that TD7 looks like TOUCHDOWN!   I am not digressing.  My best friend who suddenly has decided we should talk on the phone late at night as if it's 1994 made me suddenly see TD7 differently. Touchdown. 7 points. 

I may need go back to sleep. 

Nah........ let's talk tropics........

Connect the dots. 

I know some of you can.

When they get past the Islands.

Let's talk then.

Past 70 W

The Carolilna Low...

...will deliver rain.

Name of no name.

Next 5 days.

Lots of rain.

That was a slant rhyme.

Means it kind of rhymes.

Kind of like this Season.

Expect the little yellow circle to disappear soon, or get absorbed into a larger feature. What may be a Tropical Storm if TD7 ever gets it's crown will most likely be a Fish Storm. It'd have to really almost die, but stay alive and get further West and come back alive If it is to go the distance and when I mean the distance I'm including Bermuda. 

 See 70 West..
...too many disrupting features.
Just the way it is...

Okay bottom line as there is not much to say here and what is being said is conjecture. What I am say is what's left of Frannie (my nickname, long story) is a ball wound up pulling the convection, the moisture and tropical energy into the Carolinas and the Deep South... 

Picture that green circle spinning.

It's whispers, it calls, it yells.

Follow me.

Come to me.

And the rain is coming.

The rain is actually here....

...but next few days.

They'll be lots more rain.

In the South we use lots of contractions.

This is one huge tropical contraction.

1 part stalled out frontal boundary.

1 old tropical Fran'e refusing to let go.

Fresh raining racing towards land.

Often when tropics can't produce storms.

Can't produce a bevy of hurricanes.

Old storms like Frannie don't let go...

..and Mother Nature will do Mother Nature.

So rather than one big hurricane...

...............on the  move fast.

Rain gets stuck and we get a fire hose.

Usually Charleston floods ...

... houses on stilts out over the water

Crash into the water in OBX

Depending on the track...

...this could impact DC

Time will tell.

Maybe I'll update later today.

new blog, normal blog

Right now I see trouble.

Name or no name.

And I will say this.......

This time of year produces weather makers and some slide tropical rain in sideways as if Mother Nature was holding a fire hose and is drunk having a blast, blasting rain at cities along the SE Coast. And, at some point Mother Nature tosses us a game changer in a huge tropical weather event, a real hurricane, a big hurricane and it goes the distance but it doesn't go East to West, it goes South to North and it shoves everything around including the Polar Vortex and it's a game changer, a finale people don't forget and then cool air rushes down over and over and we move fast from early pretend Fall to Fall and the finale of Winter. And, hopefully Mitch in SC and me in NC gets SNOW. But we aren't done with hurricane season yet so stick around. 

This is the greatest show...... 

              Weather!!!

                           The Seasons!!!!!

                                         Mother Nature is NOT done with us Yet!

                                                       And we are held here staring at models.......

                                                                   Or staring at satellite loops......................

                                                                                Waiting and watching.....................

Sweet Tropical Dreams!

Sweet snowy dreams...........

Sweet 

         Leaves 

                  Falling

                            Down

                            

Dream any season you want...

...any dream you want to dream.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter Weather mostly....

... Insta whatever.

music is up above...

...everywhere

Thanks for reading

Patience

Smiles

Silly mood Bobbi!

Will check spelling later.........

... it's just a weather diary don't ya know.

;)

           

Story of Francine. All the Parts That Made Her and Where Parts of Her Are Going Next? Look at Tropics ...Carolina Coast Possibilities, TD 7 ...

Mimic hints to more to tell ...

This Blog is mostly about Francine.
From ULL to Blob to The Wave.

Now the question remains....

Does a new storm develop from her DNA...
...and her remnant rain in ATL off SE Coast?

 

Showing the wide view here to show the many parts of Francine. Her solid round ball that accompanies her remnant circulation that went North following the NHC track........the track follows the circulation center. However, often in a system such as Francine, that was really born from two entities that briefly came together to provide another landfilling hurricane on the GOM coastline....at some point it splits apart again and basically a "blob" of rain departed Eastward towards the Atlantic. Two parts that for a while beat as one heart, and now the Eastbound rain is creating dangers in the Florida Panhandle and possibly may seed a new system that could form off the SE coastline.

TD Francine Center  <----->  Remant Rain went East.

It's actually fairly common for some named storm's leftovers to mix it up with an area of troubled weather and deliver a new named system. And, be clear every storm in any given year is it's own unique storm, I only offer this example to show that Hurricane Katrina "formed close in" off the Florida coast from a tropical wave and remnants of Tropical Depression 10. Leaving the discussion well written from Wikipedia below

"Hurricane Katrina originated from the merger of a tropical wave and the mid-level remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on August 19, 2005, near the Lesser Antilles. On August 23, the disturbance organized into Tropical Depression Twelve over the southeastern Bahamas. The storm strengthened into Tropical Storm Katrina on the morning of August 24"

So where do we go from here?

This is not some strange dramatic voodoo story of ghosts, goblins and meteorological hype. It simply is what it is and what was is gone and what may be... may be a storm off the East Coast that does unusual things around the Carolina coastline and or over land.

Gulf of Mexico satellite shows this well.

Exit what's left of Francine's circulation North.

Moisture part of Francine swirling off to the East.

Radar showing this evolution that may develop into a new system downt the road. Currently producing squalls coming in from the Gulf of Mexico in Florida where bands are being pulled North into Francine or what's left of her, now downgraded to a Tropical Depression. 

Models this morning show this well.

So I don't want to close the book on the story of Francine, other than to say she was born of two systems, a westbound tropical wave that we watched seemingly forever and a blob that originated near an Upper Level Low that spun over the Gulf of Mexico seemingly forever. It took a while, quite a while, for it all to wrap up and become Francine. It was a mess, a real messy evolution and for a short while yesterday it provided incredible visuals of an organized hurricane finally. 

NHC started off with low bids on intensity, walked it up to 100 MPH at some point backed down with lower expectations. Data from Recon showed it to have 100 MPH winds and part of me feels they should have left it the way it was originally. For a hot minute... or maybe an hour Francine looked like a formidable hurricane.

Francine doing the 2 Minute Drill.

Cat 2 for a long 2 minutes!

Okay maybe 2 hours!

She did attain 100 MPH winds as per NHC, but it wasn't very long and the shear that they insisted would weaken her near landfall did show up some as well as the ever present dry air. Still, it was explained that the cooler, drier area that found it's way into her system would weaken her overall intensity and yet exaggerate the winds with localized high gusts, strong and long that would tear across the region despite the lowered intensity. 

There are wind reports that do not show very strong hurricanes winds after landfall, and they will be studied and more wind reports added and at some point Francine will be re-evaluated and I'm curious to see what NHC does with it or let's say has to say about it in their Post Season analysis.

Understand the lay of the land where it made landfall, and understand very little is above ground and much is marsh, swamp, low country and little delta like areas where rivers run out to the sea. It's where "Last Island Hurricane" came ashore (more or less) and after a pair of strong hurricanes there smashed the little boom towns out on the barrier islands, people died, people packed up and moved further inland. And, that's why you see very few large developed Coastal cities in this part of Louisiana compared to Florida that has both Tampa Bay and Miami hovering a sea level with tall buildings clinging to the coastline with break taking views. 

It's a different coastline from Mississippi.

It's Marsh and most small towns are fishing villages.

Nature Refuges and Academic research facilities.

Homes are sparse and elevated.

Looks like land on a map.

It's Bays and Bayous.

Barrier Islands.

Cocodrie where flooding was wild...

is in the bottom left of this image above.

Good video on X  @BradArnoldWX

Zooming in to that part of Louisiana

South of Cocodrie that flooded....

...is the Isle Dernieres now a Nature Refuge.

That was Last Island....

...that did not last the big hurricanes.

Link below..

Note how small Cocdrie is actually.

Let's look at Cocodrie.

Small sliver of streets.

South of Chauvin.

It's a long, long road to Cocodrie.

You see a lot of wild sunrise and sunsets I'm sure.

Mississippi coastline has towns and cities.

Small towns, bigger cities.

Gulfport, Biloxi

This region in Louisiana not so much.

Nature taught humans where to build.

Before NHC put up Cones and warnings.

A 150 MPH hurricane was a surprise.

Even a 100 MPH hurricane is a surprise...

...without watches and warnings.

I often disagree with things NHC does or says in their Discussion or advisories. For example, they had data that supported possibly 100 MPH close to landfall, then models changed and didn't support it and they pulled it back and then models showed something else as they often do. Then it intensified steadily in some 2 Minute Drill that the Dolphins love so much and suddenly recon info said it was 100 MPH. Surprise. Should they have left it at 100 to begin with and lastly was there really 100 MPH winds in Francine and if so for how long? Where they long gusts and transitory, an illusion or really there in small bands and areas around the developing eye? Research is always done post season, they don't just sit around playing on the incredible computers with large monitors shooting the breeze, they work all year and post season it's often analysis. This all said........Thank God we have the NHC and they do a great job giving us watches and warnings and heads up before a hurricane is on the way.

Damage seen across the area was not really consistent with 100 MPH winds, not to say they weren't, especially as that part of Louisiana has small structures, not always well built to codes that homes in Miami are built to and usually you'd see more damage than trees that go snap in steady winds of over 50 MPH easily. Gas Stations looked fairly good (a fast measure of intensity in a localized area) and trailers not so much.  We will see.

Video looked awesome. iCyclone always delivers both incredible video and content. Reed Timmer was there having fun. Mike was riding on a long backroad talking to everyone online while trying to get 18 miles to a "real street" and well there aren't many real streets down that way, just backroads and often with rising water on all sides.

Lastly, let's talk about the water and the flooding. Please remember it rained off and on incessantly for a good 2 to 3 weeks from  Upper Level Low's dirty side went inland and then went back out over water and evolved into  "The Blob" before "The Wave" moved into the Southern Gulf of Mexico and began the mating dance that went on for days as the blob crept closer to the the wave and the wave waved to the blob but while the blob flirted it held back a bit forcing the wave to come after it and just as they looked like they were forming with a deep wild center that Alice could fall down fast, it fell apart again and both pulled back to their corners of the Gulf of Mexico and in one of the longest run on sentences and meteorological mating rituals I have ever seen in the tropics, "The Center" came back. This murky, messy creature rained on Mexico, refusing to leave the Tex/Mex coast and it wasn't until the original remant blob moved inland far ahead of Francine did Francine move out fully into the water and took deep breaths and found that it liked being Francine and wound up into what acutally looked like a Hurricane. Honored to get the Alice graphic from @Stormchasernick and yes the beautiful deep center came back. Like the cat. And, Francine moved rapidly towards landfall in an area that's population swelled with all the chasers who were there to chase her and Fancine delivered.

That really is the bottomline in that Francine delivered in the end. How strong it was and how strong for how long, really doesn't matter. The wind howled, trees snapped, chasers snapped pictures and took incredible videos and sometimes just had fun out there which you can do in a Cat 1 Hurricane vs a Cat 5 Hurricane when all you can do is hunker down at some point.

Francine is a good example of what a solid Category 1 Hurricane can do. Not all hurricanes have to be Major Hurricanes to make records, get attention and do destruction. I haven't heard of any deaths, hope there were none, but it's too soon to say we won this one!

It's not totally over.

The center went North, the weather/moisture/rain went East and is expected to arrive fully in the Atlantic where another blobby area close in (now with it's own yellow circle) is waiting for it and we will see if we get a non-tropical low or more a tropical low with a name. I'm waiting in NC to see more tropical weather similar to Debby from this though you are never sure what you are really going to get when you open a box of chocolates that don't have a code to tell you what you are biting into.

As for the Atlantic......................the MDR..................TD7 and it's friends and the new wave over Africa.

The Yellow Circle for now is everything.

Seven is one to watch........

Other two barely there.

When you see this signature...

Moisture train from Francine.

Looks like a scarecrow.

Pointing in two directions.

Stay tuned...

Again when you have a weak MDR

Close in Development is where things pop up.

Surprise.

Have a wonderful day.

Be well, be safe and be happy.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Instagram whatever.

In the mood to go to Myrtle Beach.

When??? Will see...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1856_Last_Island_hurricane

60,000 without power from Francine.

Schools closed today.

Clean up begins as there are tree limbs down everywhere.

Flooding in the areas prone to flooding.