5 PM UPDATE... TD2 FORMS ...FORECAST to be a 105 MPH Hurricane in the Caribbean... What Will be 96L is Right Behind it - 94L Hanging On at 30%

 

TD 2 Forms

Note NHC has it as a Hurricane on Sunday

Before the Islands.

No watches and warnings yet.

Imagine the 11 PM may add them in...

I did think they would use Dvorak.

Why I use it so often to be "sure"

Forecast to be a 105 MPH Hurricane.

It's worth saying that the intensify forecast is probably cautious and on the low side of some of the models that show it as much stronger. Nice and easy usually is the best way to proceed, especially as it's very far out still even tho it is moving West at 21 MPH a good clip for a Tropical Depression. 

Wind Probabilities are very wide spread. Important to remember there's a graphic on the site that shows wind probabilities. There are many more products than "the Cone" to help you prepare for this should it move towards your home ....

Bottom line is that we are a bit in unchartered territory as there are few hurricanes we can compare this to for this time of year, though there have been many before the time of satellite imagery as history goes way back as far back as the first sailor or settler had a pen and ink to record in their weather journal.

One thing I want to emphasize is that this is the FIRST CONE and often it changes in various ways down the road. A few models intensify this fast and the NHC usually stays conservative in the beginning. And, that's good as there's no reason to scream "SHARK!!" when it's just forming. For the NHC to forecast 105 MPH down the road as it is near Jamaica on the Southern end and Hispaniola and Cuba at the more Northern end says much on how strong it could become should those models verify.  

Latest models as of 6 PM Friday 

Going off in a while.

I'll update Saturday Evening.

Have a good weekend ...

AND

...check out your Hurricane Supplies.

Let TD 2 Forecast to be a Hurricane ...

..be your wake up call if you were waiting.

Please keep reading...

if you haven't. 

Thanks!

Live Blogged all day ...

...as I knew there'd be an upgrade.

And there was....

*********************

4 PM

Just this one image tells the story. As much as I love color and ya all know I do... some things are black and white. Just the facts. Small core, strongest in the center... NHC is issuing advisories at 5 PM. I'll update with the Cone... with details, facts and information vs innuendo and rumors. ;)

Li'l dot in the center of the white.

Maybe not really anything.

But they better name this fast... 

Waiting for the details... 

..watches and warnings for Islands.

*****

Now 100%

Upgrade to TD?

Here's a loop of our system.

I'm a fan but I'll be honest.

It's one problem has been an elongated center.

Not the best signature for a TS or a TD

Maybe they will go with PTC

Most likely TD2 

Waiting on NHC to put out a product, hopefully at 5 PM, and in the meantime going to put something up here with the caveat that many online are upset they would put out a "fake cone" as only NHC should make a "cone" and yet everyone knows it's Accuweather. So leaving this here out of mere curiosity as to how close the NHC cone comes to Accuweather's jump the cone make a map with a cone.

Clearly says Accuweather... 

oh they called it an 

"EYE PATH"

(not sure on that term usage...

..sounds like an eye patch ...)

So we will compare and contrast later.

Stay tuned.......

Is 5 PM later?

Keep reading what was written at 9 AM

* **

9 AM

We knew that last night....

..a yellow X was definitely coming.

Faster than an advisory for 94L

Always fun chatting with the weather crew on Twitter, especially after a long day, so while debating on when NHC would upgrade Invest 95L I made the comment I was more curious if they'd put up a yellow X for the next wave... and by the way there's a huge one behind that as well. This is as if it's late July and prime time for the African Wave Train... in late June. This Hurricane Season definitely seems as if Mother Nature if feeding those tropical waves some sort of energy drink ...because they are definitely over producing for the end of June.

Yes, I was more curious when the NHC would put a yellow X on their main page than if 95L does or doesn't get designation. It's only a matter of time for 95L to be upgraded... but to see confidence in the next wave that models have been aggressive with says a lot.

So in waiting mode this morning to see if NHC is writing good discussion for a 11 AM advisory or if we continue in waiting mode til 5 PM. Whenever it happens it's a done deal for now. 

Dense Central Core.

Banding.

Outflow.

Storms exploding.

You dont't need a loop to figure this one out.

First look long range, as I know everyone is with this system, the bottom line really depends on it's Intensity forecast as Intensity will steer this storm. A stronger storm may pull more to the North (WNW to NW then NNW) vs a weaker storm battling negative conditions in the Eastern Caribbean and if that happens it'll keep  more to the West as the dark black line in the middle of the models above hints at.

That's basic tropical meteorology. Not much to add other until we see a Cone and Discussion from the NHC.

So let's look at short term.

Mr. Weatherman on YouTube does a great job.

Why do I say "great" you wonder.

He makes short videos that explain much.

He packs a lot into a shorter video than most.

And as time is money for many.

He's a good one to go with ...

...if you don't have a lot of time.

Especially when a system is in the Caribbean.

So he put this graphic up and he said with time he will narrow down the goal lines there, but for now this is the area in the Islands that could be looking at a developing hurricane on approach. Again, how much Beryl pulls to the N or not says a lot. A more WNW NW track takes it over the Greater Antilles and that may put a big road block in it's dreams of making it to the mainland somewhere. A track more to the West to the West to the WNW could put it over warmer water with less mountains in the SW Caribbean and give it more running room to grow. 

Monday the EURO has it zooming past the Islands.

In the Caribbean and what will be 96L

right behind it.

I'll udpate later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever...

Updated 3PM - 80% RED Invest 95L Almost There...Wrapped, Getting Banding & Developing a Center. 94L Still There Close to NHC Possible Formation Zone. 95L Has a Friend Following It.

80% chance of upgrade to TD or TS

Recon goes in tomorrow....

...to the old Yellow Circle to be clear.

Again development could occur in the yellow grid

Not where the X is marked.

Potential development.

30%

Below is a pic that shows both areas.

94L and 95L

Also the SAL to the N of 95L

94L no SAL

95L lots of SAL to it's North.

SAL inhibits development....

..yet everyone once in a while a storm does develop.

This could be that year!

While 95L has a look and a kind of spin, note it lacks the convection that 94L has despite it's lack of substantial center currently. While 95L is in the ocean swimming westbound, the environment is dry and there is less ample moisture for it and that's why it lacks the deep red visible on 94L in a moister environment. Not easy to get a named storm in this region in June, but this year we have two contenders.  And, 95L while moving fast is way out there still, with miles to go before we sleep.

Hello Thursday in the Tropics. I had to go out with someone to the doctor's office for routine kind of things, but it was early in the day and barely had time for coffee. Looped with crappy service as that part of Raleigh always has weak signals, but followed along best I could. Home now, madly looping and going over data on Invest 95L as well as 94L close to land, weaker but still there and do not forget about 95L's friend behind it that models pick up on as well. Late June feels a whole lot like late July this year and we will soon find out if the forecasts for a busy season as if on steroids verifies!

On the left we have a big blob of convection that is Invest 94L that wasn't expected to develop  until after it passes this area and moves into the BOC as seen by the yellow grid on the image above that is the development zone. Still gotta tell you it's impressive for it to have held together and made it this deep into the Caribbean; if there was no Invest 95L it would be the name of the game today. However, everyone is all a flutter over every variation in new model runs for Invest 95L that has a track in the near future carved in stone yet......intensity m models have it everywhere from a Tropical Storm to even a strong Hurricane. It's important to remember it never was supposed to develop before this area near the Yucatan, so if it's gonna do something we will know soon. NHC has it at 30% development for the next 7 days...10% in the 2 day.

Looks close to TD status.

ASCAT pass showed it almost closed off.

Banding... 

Actually fairly beautiful for an Invest.

Short term models are clustered so closely they look like something a child would draw with crayons, tracing over the track of the other over and over. But down the tropical road the model tracks diverge. Some models show it pull ing North towards a break in the ridge towards a frontal boundary dipping down. Other models take it into the Gulf of Mexico. We have all sorts of models. We have short term models, medium range models and Superman using his Xray vision Long Range Models to try and find where landfall might be, scanning around for any port of call with beautiful beach 95L might want to visit. Ensemble models spray out every possible track and show us where there's a concensus while we stare at the one track that takes it to Daytona or Destin or Biloxi Mississippi! Don't get lost in the spray of possible tracks, get lost in the overall pattern of movement.

So much agreement in the beginning.

Then model tracks go off the rails.

This is typical and until a system has formed and Recon has obtained data to put into the models that will be, in theory, better on the next run we look at short term models and we peek at long term models; we all look at the long term models some just refuse to admit it and complain more than 60% of Weather Twitter is posting the doomsday model 385 hours out. As for Intensity you can see how wide apart the models are on 95L's future intensity. Obviously, one model that's fairly good with intensity makes this a hurricane to remember.

In truth.........we will remember this Invest for no other reason than it's actually here, in late June looking as if it's about to get it's own Cone from the NHC still too far East to get Recon into it. But, it's moving steady and fast and it'll be an issue for the Islands and at some point a Cone will show up whether it's a Potential Tropical Cyclone Cone or a real designated TD or TS. Beryl should be the name, unless 94L has some real surprises for us. 

Oh and there's a system behind 95L that many models develop as well as named tropical storms suddenly litter the possibilities on the meteorological maps the models toss at as every so many hours. 

This coming Monday, July 1st above.

EURO develops 95L (not shown, same place)

GFS tries and develop both.

(no surprise there right?)

Long range.

GFS develops something in EPAC

(there's a surprise ...so far quiet)

Develops 95L

Messy blob like area close in to FL

Just rain but something to think on.

Friday, a week from tomorrow.

That's it for now. Wondering if NHC will update 95L today or wait til tomorrow for first morning visible and for it to totally come together. Models all have it in the Islands as a developed storm on Monday so would think they would want to put up a Cone one way or the other for a heads up as a prelude to putting up\

watches late Friday but every year the NHC is a bit different of late and they have of late done a good job, so they will do what they gotta do. 

Stay tuned.

Will update later today if the NHC blinks on a potential cyclone cone though without it being a TD they may wait til tomorrow morning. Time will tell and time is rushing like a river out of control in the Midwest. 

Sweetest Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

One of my favorite JB songs...

Updated 5 PM -African Wave Steals the Model Show Now at 40% Orange. 94L Chugging Along FAST Towards the Yucatan.

Zoom Earth always does Invests well.

As the sun goes down....

...Invest 95L is up and official.

Models are on board..

Understand that models are currently thrown CLIMO out of the cute little red convertible, backed up over it and then revved the engine leaving tire tracks on what usually think of as climatology. Time will tell if the models today are on to something. For every wave that was written off as unable to develop because of strong SAL it's riding with and strong shear at the entrance to the East Carib ...there is a named storm that did just that and went all the way to landfall!

Elsa in 2021 was just such a hurricane.

That said, here's some models below.

Again these are "ensemble models"

They suggest many tracks.

Only one wins the crown.

Until a storm forms with a verified center.

And, data has been put into new advisories.

Models can be wonky and unreliable.

But it's worth repeating this message.

Regarding the Islands..

...Crown Weather posted this map and note.

www.crownweawther.com 

Always good discussion.

So that's it!

Time will tell...

Models will change, rearrange.

If you are in the Islands....

...95L really should be watched!

Please keep reading if you have not.

And, as for 94L 

A rather speedy lil system...

...once it hits the yellow grid below..

It could steal the B name first.

Or not...

Stay tuned.

* * *

2 PM

Waited to see what NHC did at 2 PM and now I'm wondering when they may up the African Wave to Invest 95. 40% orange in the 7 day as models begin to come onboard with the idea that this African Wave will not fade away. There's a lot of discussion on 94L headed towards the Yucatan as to whether it fades away and doesn't get a name or even a TD designation. I'm holding back right now from giving my thoughts, other than it's moving VERY FAST and it needs to slow down to develop. Seeing how it's been stubborn and made it across a SAL filled Atlantic while doggy paddling just off shore of South America... not ready to write it off. It's late June, this is par for the course and what you'd expect. Somehow our expectations have been raised due to all the pre-season forecasts of a crazy busy year and many felt we should have 2 or 3 named storms in June to attain that high number at the end. Gotta tell you ...that's not true... it may be some "average" figure from all the years added up and divided but this is not Math Class. This is fly by the seat of your pants 2024 Hurricane Season that evolves in real time; and as always will bring surprises we didn't see coming.

Honestly the models today sprayed the hurricane maps from going into the Caribbean or tracks that take it closer to Florida and it's still a bit too far out to know what will be, but what we do know is the models like the African Wave. As in ALL ATTN has turned to the African Wave...that should be Invest 95L anytime soon

As Mike is most known for Spaghetti Models... using an image from his recent  short video on YouTube that shows the problem here. Yes, I know some tracks take it into the Gulf of Mexico.

My best advice here it to be prepared for any unwelcome arrival in Hurricane Country and check back on Twitter or X or whatever you enjoy checking back with and as get closer to the actual plot line we can discuss possible details.

Depends on many things:

Actually strength and alignment of any tropical cyclone that forms ..vertically speaking in the atmosphere.

Where and how strong the High Pressure is as whatever it'll be gets closer to the Islands.

Depends on sheer.....

............depends on how it deals with the SAL

Oh and there's a "cold front" moving down that could send it an invitation.

Weaker goes West.....in to the Caribbean. 

Stronger .... has more of an ability to make a turn up into our part of the world.

This time of year also shoots named storms West into Central America.

But..............currently models like it, they really like it.

Abandoning any attempt at paragraphs as this is not about fancy writing. It's about trying to nail down the unknown before a storm has formed, because models really like it.

Tantalizing. I know.

I'll update later today if and when it becomes an Invest.

It's currently almost 100 degrees in Raleigh, not as in "feels like" but as in "oh my gosh really it's 100 degrees" and I'm cooking dinner in a crock pot... it'll be BBQ Brisket on an Onion Roll with homemade Cole Slaw that I'll make while watching YouTube videos on everyone's thoughts while looping loops and wondering what if this really happens. Models loved 94L too before they were distracted by the African Wave. 

Stay tuned. I'll update later. 

You do your thing (prepare or live in denial... your choice, hope you choose wisely)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter... Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

UPDATED 8 PM Invest 94 Yellow Area 20% in & days. New Yellow Circle off of African.....Ensemble Models Say Islands & SE Should Watch African Wave Should It Develop

8 PM

And, then there were 2....

Invest 94 and It's African Wave Friend.

7 Day image below.

Regarding 94L the conditions currently are not that favorable, it's moving very fast ...and yet that may help keep it together as the faster it moves the less SAL in ingests. This region often sees early waves moving fast, staying low beneath the bulk of the Saharan Dust. Conditions improve as it reaches the yellow grid near the Yucatan. 

As for the African Wave .... again these are low latitude waves, moving along fast and yet this wave has shown model support all afternoon getting it anywhere from the current location of 94L to long range models showing it gaining latitude along a wide spray of destinations from getting into the GOM to making Florida nervous. Long range models are like the horror movies that are the most popular when the most scary... stay tuned and let's see what daylight shows. Daylight will come early to Africa I may add.

Next Monday.... 

Deja Vu indeed.

Again this is common.

Check back tomorrow...

..and keep reading if you have not.

As this is a track as old as time.

Often a B storm... 

enjoy the music.

* * *

2 PM 

Our area of interest is moving along at a fairly fast clip, now in the Caribbean close to land and that inhibits it some. But it's moving along and the NHC has upped it's possibilities of development to 10% in the 2 Day period. There is also Saharan Dust there as seen below, and as always not only do systems here have to battle shear but dry air in general ... and in this case SAL is there as well. Again the SAL rides the same air patterns that the tropical waves do.  So keep watching. Again the dust shows up as polka dots in the Atlantic.

Little swirl ... just a wave.

Also want to mention the Bahama Blob.

Possible as it moves N it tries to develop a bit.

This region is a prime target for development.

Not saying it will...

..saying it could.

As for the African Wave.

GFS shows it here down the road.

July 2nd..where the AOI is now.

Shows lead wave aimed at Yucatan.

Low... bit of a crap shoot where it goes.

Stay tuned.

Nothing is threatening.

But... that's why now is a good time to ..

GET A PLAN!

Hurricane Prep.... 

...for when we have Hurricanes and Cones.

Only a matter of time.

Prioritize your own needs.

Keep reading from 8 AM

Thanks. 

8 AM - 20% Yellow X in 7 day.

Nothing for the next two days...just watching it.

Mimic shows where the moisture is...

...more orange and golds more moisture.

This is actually a perfect loop to show the tropics, as well as the problems the Midwest are having with flooding as the rivers rise and dams on the verge of failing. A colorful tropical wave emerges off of Africa with dreams of being a tropical cyclone...  moving westbound under an elongated High Pressure region. The light gray polka dot look to the high is where the Saharan Dust is strongest and both the wave and the SAL is moving West in tandem. In the middle of the is a small round ball of convection filled with variations of colors showing us the intensity of rainfall, in this neat little ball moving just North of South America on it's way Westward toward tropical possibilities in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. To the North in the upper left part of this loop is a huge ball of convection and that's where our chasers will be today and where the attention of the country will go with regard to flooding in that region. 

Many eyes are on Rapidan Dam in Minnesota.

When it rains it pours as the saying goes.

And the flooding follows the rivers.

Towns were built along rivers.

A real tragedy in real time.

Back to the tropics there's an African Wave.

Of course, way too early.

But still there it is.

Models show some support.

For it to get across the Atlantic.

And climb some in latitude.

First real support for such a wave.

Model support..and it's growing.

1 is the possible tracks.

(stabs in the dark by models)

2 is where pressures are... 

What Mike is trying to show is that more models are contining to jump on the wave train for this African Wave to lift in latitude and glide around the huge high trying to find a weakness in the high pressure. This would be a wave that many in the Islands and Florida as well as the Carolinas will be watching down the road, should the wave survive in the Saharn Dust filling it's travel route and hold together enough to get a yellow circle to begin with and then we will continue watching it! Currently it's all about ensemble models that show us hints in the very long range.

As for the HEAT make it go away, please! I spent my life growing up in Miami and I've had way enough heat for a lifetime. Spent several summers in Minnesota and I know those river vallies well ... flood plains actually (like we have in the Carolinas) and when it rains it pours and the flooding fills up the flood plains and many homes and farms are in the way of this flooding. I know NE Iowa as have had kids living there, and it's beautiful country but when the rivers flood the whole fabric of life falls apart and it takes a long time to rebuild and recreate it. 

Kind of like hurricanes in the South. I'm especially concerned this about a hurricane in the Carolinas this year where the corn is literally dying, roasting in the horrible hot relentless sun with daytime temperatures set to be 100 tomorrow and I'm not even talking on "feels like" temperatures and rain has been rarely seen this June. 

I fear it's gonna be a hurricane season to remember IF this weather set up continues and at the moment it looks as if it will so prepare please, get a plan, buy supplies and figure out where you would go if you need to evacuate!

As I'm about to post this blog I noticed this tweet or post whatever it is we call what we do on X. It's a post from Mike that shows the lastet models and so far the models are staying with development of the second wave by Africa.

When I look at the MIMIC below....

...this is what I see in my head.

Without the models.

Convection in Bahams.

Yellow Area 20% but red in convection below.

A litle high above pushing the AOI west.

But the next wave...things change.

Convection and the patterns and movement of it on the MIMIC are a kind of short term crystal ball as they show where convection weakens the High or where the High pushes away the convection. The huge area of convection in the Bahamas that everyone asks about and the answer is "it's nothing" is correct with regard to tropical development, however it's not nothing it's weakening the Eastern edge of the High in the same way each new wave takes a bite out of the Saharan Dust trying to diffuse it some for the next wave that follows in a process that truly is as old as time. In time we get toward August and September and Huge Hurricanes happen rather than naked swirls and small little tropical storms.

Note the moisture... 

...if that moisture remains in place.

The next wave will lift up into that weakness.

Something to think on..

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather Insta whatever.

Yellow area looking towards Mexico.

Down the road...