PTC 15 Dressing up as Lisa for Halloween! Lisa Forms... Tries to Get into the Pacific......(Seymour??) BUT We May Have a November Surprise in a Week or So. Election Day Storm Could Form? Maybe... Being Silly But Been an Odd Year. Stay Tuned .. Where's Martin?

Lisa is trick or treating as a Tropical Storm today!

Happy Halloween! Do you want a trick or a treat? Because I can talk to you about Tropical Storm Lisa, newly formed, battling shear but expected to flirt with hurricane status as it comes together over hot water in the SW Carib just before landfall. Of course the real trick is Lisa goes left into the Pacific and probably dies trying to cross back over. Hasn't 2022 been an interesting hurricane season? And, as I said last night, 2022 Hurricane Season is not done with us yet.......

Models..........

Yeah, figures.

Let's do it again.... 

That said..... it brings with it the threat of flooding rains, mudslides and more misery for a region that recently hosted Julia. As the season begins to end ...the end is tucked in the beginning. Can the EPAC get another named storm?  Stay tuned.

Now Lisa was the treat as it shows no signs of trying to get up into the Gulf of Mexico, in fact it may actually go S of West as the high to the North is currently strong.

Note I said "currently" as everything changes in real time, especially as we trek through Autumn that either delievers "oh my God it's freezing" or "why is it 78 degrees today"  ... things change. 

The trick is all the moisture left over ...

In the Caribbean... in the Atlantic.

Long range models show possible trouble in a week or so.

So looking down the tropical road......

The GFS shows this odd image.

Far down the road...

Moisture moving up over the islands.

Kind of wants to be a CV wave but it''ll be November.

Image below is Nov 9th

Speaking of waves....

..it wants to scream "BOO!"

And wave at Dabuh in Jax.

Of course the EURO plays hard to get.

Yet... what it does do is further ... West.

Also for the 9th of November.

Ps there's an eclipse on November 8th...

Down in the Carib and oh look!

EPAC gets Seymour maybe...

It's too soon to tell.

But you know some of us do tell....

My buddy Dabuh posted this image up above...

..while I was writing this blog.

So going with it.

Just because it's November the season is not over and often La Nina seasons are busy at the end of the season and with fronts dipping down its all in the timing whether they treat you and curve away from the US coast (Florida) or trick you and grab a strong cold front... racing up the coast with it. With luck they can stay off shore and out to sea but never bet on luck unless you're very lucky!!

Don't say I didn't warn ya...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever

Ps Regarding halloween I'm not doing anything this year but in past years I was usually some sort of a dancer or a Gypsy. Actually I was a Gypsy from an early age... or a flapper. Maybe I'll wear my Victoria Secrets PJs with a leopard pattern .... but not eating candy ... maybe some BBQ Potato Chips! On second thought I think I was a flapper first but you get the idea :)

Update 8 PM Potential Tropical Cyclone 15... Still Trying..........

Potential Tropical Cyclone 15

Recon found winds and a broad center.

But not ready yet for prime time.

Models in good agreement!

You can see the convection.

You can see it's fairly closed but not tight on the right.

On the Mimic above you can see it well.

Still looks as if it's at the base of a trof...

... angled now not vertical.

But behind it to the EAST... 

..a solid line of tropical moisture.

Hurricane Season isn't over with us yet... 

 

Ps.......

Note how warm the water is where it's going.

Speaking of water I found some today... 

...water not so hot but beautiful.

That's the Falls of the Neuse River.

Yes, it's called that.

Not Neuse just Falls of Neuse River in Raleigh.

Down the way they call it The Neuse... 

Behind me was the dam and Falls Lake.

The water rolls down, flows out and it's pretty.

Cool air, quiet but a busy Blue Ibis out and about

Busy day out and about and once home the cable was out and the wifi and well after hours talking to Spectrum and hearing they would have to send someone out tomorrow... my husband figured out how to fix it with a new cable. 5 useless but nice people said they were stumped... so I didn't update the blog as early as I planned. And, despite it being Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 we are still waiting for it to be organized enough for an actual upgrade. Recon found a broad center and tropical storm force winds but again as I said earlier it's trying but it's not there yet.

Stay tuned.. I'll update in the morning.

Too tired to look for a song.

Going with this one.

I think I like the 2nd movie more than the first. I know that's sacreligious isn't it? I'll tell you a secret. I actually like Grease 2 more than the original Grease. In truth I saw Grease on stage the first time and it's hard to compare in ways and in other ways all I can think of is they filmed the ending at my close friend's father's carnival in California. The stories were legendary and it's not my favorite Travolta movie though it's great but there's something sweet about Grease 2. Perhaps Eddie and the Cruisers 2 is more compelling. Just my thoughts. I was in LA, always lots going on and I'd take Urban Cowboy over Grease anyday but that's just me. How about you?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED_fdLv9paE

Sweet dreams and keep reading if you didn't already.......thanks!

**

A bit more concentrated this morning.

80% Chances currently. 

Salient point....

... Recon set to go in.

REGARDLESS... lots of areas could get weather.

Note how wide the places mentioned are.

Puerto Rico, VI, Hispaniola and Jamaica

Invest 95L is not totally organized, but it is trying and until it develops a center and wraps that convection around it, areas across a wide area will get some rain from this and that's a big take away. Until this develops I'm less concerned with models and more concerned with the timing on it's actual development. Let's wait and see what recon finds today.

Showing this image above to show how "dry" the Western Caribbean is and the spots of red are higher to the North than they were previously. Looks like a dry heart turned sideways...   and behind it is a quasi active area of tropical waves that can easily be discerned moving West. Main point here is regardless of what happens with 95L there are areas behind it that in the right moment of time can develop just fine. It's also possible that whatever forms stays small in size, just a thought to remember that can happen as well.

Center trying to close off but... time will tell.

Stay tuned.......

.... I'll put up a song later :)

Saturday Night.... Recon Might Go Into 70% RED Circle... Maybe. Timing Questions??

Looking at the area in Earthnull below...

It's trying.

Elongated bubble 

Further North today.

The easy to read models from Tropical Tidbits.

So currently it seems our Invest has eyes on the EPAC where other waves have gone earlier this year. A common 2022 track in this region, sadly with Ian being the exception.  My only concern is that this model and all models have a time expiration date. You know those coupons that are printed 12/31/2022? Well these are not like those coupons, the models can change in real time. IF this develops sooner, if it follows the  models seen above then we have  nothing to worry about. If it forms later in a diffeent spot with more latitude during this way too  long for my likes period of Autumn Summer where temperatures are warm and Mother Nature tries to trick you into believing that this treat will last deep into winter... then we could have a possible problem as systems in the SW Carib that do not go quietly into the Pacific can catch a ride out of the Carib North or more usually NE and when that happens the tropical trouble becomes a problem. Hopefully this will not happen but it's worth remembering it's not over til way after the World Series en/sds!

Check in Sunday.... 

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever

Some like it hot but I'm ready for cooler weather but we are on a pause weather wise until the next strong, real cold front stands up and dives deep down cruising through the Carolinas on it's way towards Florida.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJYK9PbqGM0

 

Updated.......Invest 95L in the Carib 70% - Tropical Development at the Base of the Messy Trof... Area Further N Lower Chances But Keep Watching.

Strong convection down in the Caribbean.

Models show it staying low.

Low track and fairly low intensity.

As always remember models change.

If you look at the set up in the Caribbean currently you have to remember there's high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and there is an opportunity for a named storm to form and move West. To the North we hae the other area that actually looks better on Eathnull (for all it's 20% yellow) compared to Invest 95L in the Caribbean.

Currently it's a wait and see situation.

Models come and go.

Watch in real time.

Neither are threats to USA

Caribbean could impact Central America.

It has to form.

It hasn't. 

Much is model driven.

So... wait and see.

It's kind of that simple. There's been much talk today on anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, know that was a very rare set up. And, that's a real Thank God as it took years for some areas to recover. 

Have a good weekend, I'll update Sunday (or Saturday night should something get designated. Breathe, enjoy life as much as you can and always be aware of changes in the weather.

Ps.....please keep reading from earlier. Again, when you have that sort of set up from the Caribbean all the way to Canada for DAYS it's hard to see real development. But then again no one told the new wave moving West that the basin is almost closed, but not yet. I do think we will get a Lisa at some time soon. 

****

8 AM

Fast blog this morning and I will update this afternoon in depth more. The area of most concern has finally been highlighted in the Caribbean with a 70% red chance of development. This is, in my mind, pretty much a done deal. And, at the same time I'll say I'd spend less time worrying on what is East of the Bahamas with fronts on the move and a nonstop messy vertical flow that will pretty much suck the moisture North in the constant flow. Though it was worth keeping an eye on the constant attention given it has seemed flawed in that the real concern for tropical development was down in the Caribbean. And, I'll add this area has given birth to more systems than just off Africa or the Gulf of Mexico. 

Models currently keep this South of Cuba. High pressure to the North as well as SHEAR will make a track such as Ian's very unlikely. While development is likely, the current track keeps it down in the Caribbean. Down the distant road opportunities can always happen for it to do something odd (we are really in a November pattern even though it's October 28th) and so we should always watch what's down below, it's good to know that currently the models keep it South and hopefully weaker. 

Waiting for a center to form ...

..as always models better after a center forms.

Note concentation of color near 95L

Energy to the N is there but compromised.

Due E of Carolinas u can see the other area.

Anytime you have such a set up in the Atlantic you watch the base of the trough. I'll add though that once 95L forms and moves West and pulls away fom that zone, you can always have development closer in to the North this time of year ... closer in to our coasts. Not very tropical off the coast of the Carolinas, though sometimes subtropical storms form and often the energy from the offshore system can get wrapped up (caught) by the next approaching front. 

So as always keep watching the tropics while you enjoy Pumpkin Spice Latte (I just ordered more from Nespresso) while debating buying Egg Nog flavored candies. Anytime you have that period where one season fights with another there is always an opening for something tropical or subtropical to form. This time of year brought us Sandy as well as the Perfect Storm so we never count it out.

My husband who was raised in upstate NY told me it felt "frosty" this morning in Raleigh, not frost on anything but it just felt colder than expected. Folks from way up North always have coloful words for "colder than I thought" ... so do those of us in the South but they can be a bit more colorful!! The Maple tree outside my window that usually is red aound Thanksgiving is turning red in spots this morning and the views on the drive back from Chalotte yesterday were pure heaven to anyone who loves Fall color. 

Raleigh has a lot of pines and oaks, than other areas nearby that have more hardwoods than Pines but they do punctuate the colors beautifully with that dark vibrant green showing off the various gold oaks, red maples, yellow poplars beautifully. While it's beautiful to look out across an area all yellow or red, the mixture to me is incredibly beautiful. AND... IF YOU WANT TO GO SEE FALL COLOR .... DO IT NOW! I keep hearing on TWC how "peak color" in certain areas are later in November, trust me that's an average and if they check with their local experts they will know that the peak will have peaked by the time you get there. Can't tell you how many trees had already lost their leaves or only had a few yellow leaves still spiraling down to the ground that is littered with fallen leaves. So if you don't go this weekend, you may miss it. Just saying.

I'll update this afternoon but for now, it's worth knowing a named storm will form in the Caribbean and the area off the East Coast is still there but iffy and how it interacts with other weather systems is the question. Until the next really strong diving cold front comes down this has become a semi-permanent feature in the Atlantic and you can see 95L consolidating at it's base. To the North, only time will tell...

I'll update later today. Stay tuned!

Enjoy.... 

Update from Charlotte. 50% Chances for Both Orange Circles. Caribbean Questions Down the Road. Remember Hurricane Season Ends in November For a Reason. Especially in La Nina Years!

This is the tropicsl tonight.

A plue of tropical moisture moving N out of Carib.

A tropical wave moving westbund.

Currently the Caribbean is clear sailing.

Note the direction of the Orange X

Up with the plume of moisture.

50/50

Both areas have 50% chance of forming.

Caribbean system goes W because it's 2022!

The Atlantic one E of the Bahamas goes North. 

Again note the flow below from the Mimic Loop.

I took a great bath. Warm, hot and so good! I'm going to sleep early. Much to do tomorrow before going back to Raleigh. My husband has clients he is seeing and I'm doing some shopping and just taking in the beauty of Fall in the Carolinas. Last month we were tired up with the Jewish Holidays and it was hard to get away so this week we are making up for it. 

North Carolina is a very beautiful state with a rich diversity of geological features, as well as the twin assets of both a beautiful coastline and mountains on our Western edge and yet the rolling hills and varying elevation of the Piedmont in the middle provides a dazzingly array in the Spring and the Fall of brillant color and inspiring hues that make you appreciate the flow of time, seasons and life. 

Sailboats in New Bern down near the coast.

This was just after sunset.

Oriental is magical.

Another day... 

...Charlotte has fountains.

I don't know why but it's a thing here.

Everywhere there are fountains...

This was also just after sunset.

So we will see what we see tomorrow, more models will be run. More options will arise and some will be taken out of circulation and many will pretend they never mentioned them. 

Lastly I want to mention something I saw today and was reminded how much information there is on Spaghetti Models website as Mike keeps things there kind of like a filing cabinet that he shares with you.

Almost ALL Hurricane INFO comes down to this.

Some Hurricane Hazards.

1. STORM SURGE

2. INLAND FLOODING

3. HIGH WINDS

4. TORNADOES

If you keep ALL 4 of these dangers in mind, you will better understand hurricanes. Some have all three and some have only one or two. But there's more to worry on than if you are "in the cone" or "in the middle of the cone" as tornadoes, inland flooding, storm surge and high winds can all happen far outside the middle of the cone and often the cone.

A child was killed in South Carolina far to the North of Hurricane Andrew from a strong storm in a very distant band in it's circulation but far away. Look at the image above and you will see strong, nasty weather coming in far to the North of Andrew moving towards South Carolina. Crazy but true. One random mean storm took a child's life.  Often it's more bands of tornadoes to the right of the eye in the Florida Panhandle somewhere while a hurricane is making landfall in Mississippi. 

A hurricane is more than just a cone or a line in the middle of a cone.

This is INLAND FLOODING.

https://www.wnct.com/news/a-look-back-at-hurricane-floyd/ There are many articles out there but far from landfall, the bigget story unfolded across the landscape of North Carolina as "river basins" flooded and that is what most river basins are they can and will at some time flood. 

New Bern, one of my favorite places.

Old city, very old filled with history.

A history of flooding.

Lastly, regarding what I said about TWC I have to admit it's upsetting for me. I'm sure many people love the various segments and discussion on festivals around the country. I'm a hard weather person... I want facts, info and details. I want more than a radar map, because TWC used to use various, beautiful satillite loops and on air the mets would explain what was going on and that is what fascinated us with TWC. There are decorating shows and travel channels but there is only one The Weather Channel. 

A friend of my husband once said that anytime someone invents something to do two or three things at once, it usually works but it doesn't do any of them perfectly. You can try to appeal to all of the people all of the time, but only the Weather Channel can explain WEATHER and teach new generations about how hurricanes work and why one town gets a heavy snowfall and another town nearby gets nothing. Only they can cover a hurricane or a blizzard the way they do but any number of on air shows can do chit chat and cover human interest stories. It's just not my prefence. And, I really dislike the couch, it reminds me of some very old late night TV show like Johnny Carson not a modern, sleek set with moving, busy on air meteorologists. 

Just me. I'm sure many people love it the way it is.

That's life. 

Have a wonderful day and thanks for reading. 

Writing is my way of breathing, relaxing and thinking and being in the moment.

I needed to write a bit tonight, before going to sleep and what will I dream of?

Hurricane winds or a gentle snow falling in the moonlight?

Chow for now... Bobbi ;)

I know how to spell it right, I like it this way!

* * * 

Feel free to keep reading the blog from earlier

A few things that bother me that aren't currently issues vs what may come from the Caribbean next week. 

Note how the stream of moisture above goes N from South American to the Mid Atlantic while crossing Puerto Rico... that's a lot of moisture. In a few days it's likely a tropical depression could form at the base of that plume of moisture when the tropical wave to the right moves into the Caribbean. Originally models fomed something there and pulled it north and it is easy to see how that would happen. However, the more recent model runs showed whatever forming in the Caribbean moving more into the SW Caribbean. 

I say this always and I'll say it again, until something forms and a real, true center is obvious models are less than stellar on accuracy. They are good at sniffing out something forming. The Euro is on board currently but takes that system to the West towards the Pacific and with the pattern this year that could easily happen.  The GFS still forms a strong storm, possibly hurricane in the Caribbean AFTER our current yellow blob forms and moves towards the West. 

In the Atlantic our tropical possibility will take advantage of the moisture streaming up in it's area. The more Northern system flirts with the US but more so provides abundant rain possibilities even if it stays out at sea.

Monday's blog above. 

If you remember the other day we had that set up on the GFS with a system forming in the Atlantic off the East Coast and one to the South near South America, as if they were vertically stacked in a line.

Sunday GFS model above.

Note the Atlantic system forms first.

Slowly the Caribbean one forms.

There's a wave off of Africa.

But it should be one of the last waves.

Africa going quiet. 

Attention in November turns towards the Caribbean.

And in November close in development.

November 7th, very long range.

Our Carib low is near SW Carib.

A new stronger storm forms.

Anything that forms here usually ...

...gets grabbed by a cold front.

European loses our Carib Wave.

The Atlantic area gets caught up in the front.

Actually the EURO takes it into the Caribbean.

Could that be Seymour in the EPAC?

I don't know.

I have one hand in winter and one hand in fall.

See what I mean?

I'll update after 8 PM.

I want a long bath.... 

... I've been in 3 parts of NC in 24 hr period.

Sunset in New Bern down by the coast.

Foggy sunrise surprise in Ralegh.

Bright gold sunset in Charlotte.

Lisa is most likely forming.

Stay tuned.

***

8 AM

Down to the 2 basic areas to watch

Models trending a bit to the West.

EURO sees something.

GFS is always more pronounced.

This is more a matter of wait and see what comes together. I'd like to see the model runs later today before weighing in on any thoughts other than the Hurricane Season isn't over because you want it to be and often Halloween and Hurricane Season have a named storm somewhere. 

Foggy in Raleigh again. On the road later today again so I'll update when I get to where I'm going. Just it's hurricane season and hurricanes can happen in the Caribbean so keep them in mind while wishing on Winter and decorating your pumpkin!

As for the very long range GFS it has some real tricks down the road. I'm very not into discussing this but you can look at the images and see what I mean. And, the ONLY reason I am showing this is to remind you that Hurricane Season ENDS in NOVEMBER for a reason.  November is historically busy in La Nina seasons with patterns such as this year and while many have predicted a back loaded season I'd be surprised, but not shocked, to see something like this pop up on our maps while parts of the country have snow.

Again reminding you Hurricane Season goes into Nov!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.