Update 8 PM Potential Tropical Cyclone 15... Still Trying..........

Potential Tropical Cyclone 15

Recon found winds and a broad center.

But not ready yet for prime time.

Models in good agreement!

You can see the convection.

You can see it's fairly closed but not tight on the right.

On the Mimic above you can see it well.

Still looks as if it's at the base of a trof...

... angled now not vertical.

But behind it to the EAST... 

..a solid line of tropical moisture.

Hurricane Season isn't over with us yet... 

 

Ps.......

Note how warm the water is where it's going.

Speaking of water I found some today... 

...water not so hot but beautiful.

That's the Falls of the Neuse River.

Yes, it's called that.

Not Neuse just Falls of Neuse River in Raleigh.

Down the way they call it The Neuse... 

Behind me was the dam and Falls Lake.

The water rolls down, flows out and it's pretty.

Cool air, quiet but a busy Blue Ibis out and about

Busy day out and about and once home the cable was out and the wifi and well after hours talking to Spectrum and hearing they would have to send someone out tomorrow... my husband figured out how to fix it with a new cable. 5 useless but nice people said they were stumped... so I didn't update the blog as early as I planned. And, despite it being Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 we are still waiting for it to be organized enough for an actual upgrade. Recon found a broad center and tropical storm force winds but again as I said earlier it's trying but it's not there yet.

Stay tuned.. I'll update in the morning.

Too tired to look for a song.

Going with this one.

I think I like the 2nd movie more than the first. I know that's sacreligious isn't it? I'll tell you a secret. I actually like Grease 2 more than the original Grease. In truth I saw Grease on stage the first time and it's hard to compare in ways and in other ways all I can think of is they filmed the ending at my close friend's father's carnival in California. The stories were legendary and it's not my favorite Travolta movie though it's great but there's something sweet about Grease 2. Perhaps Eddie and the Cruisers 2 is more compelling. Just my thoughts. I was in LA, always lots going on and I'd take Urban Cowboy over Grease anyday but that's just me. How about you?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED_fdLv9paE

Sweet dreams and keep reading if you didn't already.......thanks!

**

A bit more concentrated this morning.

80% Chances currently. 

Salient point....

... Recon set to go in.

REGARDLESS... lots of areas could get weather.

Note how wide the places mentioned are.

Puerto Rico, VI, Hispaniola and Jamaica

Invest 95L is not totally organized, but it is trying and until it develops a center and wraps that convection around it, areas across a wide area will get some rain from this and that's a big take away. Until this develops I'm less concerned with models and more concerned with the timing on it's actual development. Let's wait and see what recon finds today.

Showing this image above to show how "dry" the Western Caribbean is and the spots of red are higher to the North than they were previously. Looks like a dry heart turned sideways...   and behind it is a quasi active area of tropical waves that can easily be discerned moving West. Main point here is regardless of what happens with 95L there are areas behind it that in the right moment of time can develop just fine. It's also possible that whatever forms stays small in size, just a thought to remember that can happen as well.

Center trying to close off but... time will tell.

Stay tuned.......

.... I'll put up a song later :)