A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
Weather Event Tomorrow Expected in the South. NW Hogging the Snow! New Year's Day Weather Problems ... Are You Prepared?
This shows weather at 8 PM Wednesday.
You can see the threat abvoe.
Louisiana, Mississippi into N Alabamad.
To the North of the mess is snow...
I like this map with the highways on it.
Severe weather will impact travel tomorrow.
Across a wide area.
There's a dividing line these days.
Is the South in the penalty box?
All the winter weather stays to the North.
Will that change as we flip the year into January?
In truth the storms will set up tomorrow in real time and the mix of the atmopsheric opposities will be the ingredients in a story that has yet to be written. We know there is a chance for severe weather, straight line winds and possible tornadoes somewhere in this highlighted area. Hopefully it will not be bad, but people i this warning area in greens and yellows need to pay attention.
There is a a stuck pattern. A new system pushes in around New Year's Day into the same general area and that system could be stronger than this one and more complex as it devilvers very different weather across a wide area and again high winds could be a problem.
That's something to pay attention to...
..see how models handle it in the short term.
Really not much to add here other than it's late December and we are about to flip the calendar to January and that brings us into the heart of Winter and it seems to be a wacky sort of time where we plan on getting something unexpected!
The NC State Bowl game was cancelled today within hours of Kick Off, because UCLA was unable to participate due to Covid aka Omicron. It kind of amazes me that they thought they could get a game going but people want what they want. I have kids at the Miami Heat game tonight in Miami, but one by one Pro Teams are having problems as are College Teams. A sense of Deja Vu this December. The issue here is that people took planes, traveled and they were ready to suit up and play but it ended up being cancelled.
In Miami where I was earlier in the month Omicron is raging like an out of control wild fire! If it hasn't shown up in your neighborhood, trust me it's coming and on it's way. I've noticed the desire by everyone to want to ignore it and live in denial as long as they can but it's been like a derailing train and no matter where you are on the train all the cars end up coming undone. Whether you get it and are symton free or filled with way too many aches, pains and an overwhelming tired feeling ... it will show up in your town.
Why am I talking on this now on a weather blog? Because it's an unknown variable that you know will appear but when you aren't sure. Like anything else we don't want to deal with the best way to dea l with it is in advance have a plan of somekind. Vitamin Z and Elderberry Syrup helps many, others prefer tea of Vitamin C. Fluids are good to have because trust me you will not be hungry. Tylenol or Cold medication or ginger ale for your stomach will be desired but once it hits you it's too late to jump in the car and go shopping. What would you need if you were out of commission for let's say 4 to 5 days totally? Just the same way you would prepare for a Snow Storm or a Hurricane, make sure you have the supplies you need that will want to have handy,
One thing I learned when Hurricane Andrew was heading due West intensifying into a Category 5 is just because you want it to turn away won't make it so.
I truly hope that 2022 brings us more smiles across the miles with friends and family vs hunkering down trying to avoid germs. Okay some do not, some do and its like a Category 3 Hurricane is headed straight towards Miami and the news is on literally 24/7 talking Andrew... but you don't want to believe it will hit. Just the way of the world, the way many people deal with danger. Other's over prepare and my hurricane supplies are often unused Winter Storm supplies siting in a box waiting for some storm to come to dinner!
Sooooooooooooo stay safe tomorrow if you live in the hightlighted areas and know you could get more than you bargained for....... and if not........hold onto them because we have only just begun the Winter of 2022. More storms, fronts, threats of Ice or Snow will appear. Eventually some part of the South will get a storm they thought they would not get this winter.
Stay well and if you can't stay well know that this too shall pass and it's not the original Covid but as my older son says "I don't want this one!" :)
2021 has been one heck of a roller coaster ride but more on that. Just the way the South was relieved the death toll was relatively low for Hurricane Ida, and then she surprised us with her intensity in New York and New Jersey on her way to sucker punch New England!
I'll update in real time tomorrow if there is the severe weather we are expecting. But again... the big storm player may be closer to New Year's Day!
Out West there is winter weather. My kids sent me pictures from Seattle. I saw pictures online from Anacortes at a cute bookstore named Pelican Bay Books!
This Week... Wednesday Specifically But Waves of Trouble for the South... Severe Weather NOT SNOW. Mother Nature Needs to Check the Calendar... We Want Winter Weather in 2022!!
I'll be honest I'm in a mood with regard to this winter that seems like an Instant Replay of last year when my kids in Seattle had more snow than they wanted and the South and Carolinas got very little of any winter weather. La Nina is still in charge, though there is some thought it will flip a bit as the winter moves on and La Nina wanes, yet that's more like wishing and wishing doesn't make it so. But, with any given diving cold front in January or February it might just dive enough to change the rain to something wintry.
Euro ... and GFS disagree on exact location.
But this is the general area of concern.
Note arrows showing wind direction ...
...straight up from the warm GOM!
This is not a one day event, as models show several days this coming week when strong, severe and possibly violent weather may visit areas that have already been hit hard this winter's second Severe Weather Season! The images below show you the different possibilities and again the period around Wednesday is so far the area and time we are most concerned with, however other days are problematic so it's best to pay close attention to the weather if you live in this area.
NAM above.
It's a very short range model.
Wednesday January 29th!
I'll update this tomorrow as we get closer to the event, but it is worth mentioning so I'm blogging today on it and that's really a "HEADS UP!!" to pay closer attention tomorrow as weather evolves in real time and we can hopefully nail down the real danger zone with better timing.
Plesant weather here in Raleigh, can't really complain as it's cooler today than yesterday though eating ice cream while watching the sunset in summer clothes was a nice treat! I'd prefer a wintry treat. A small sliver of a possiblity shows up around January 3rd as a stronger frontal systems dips down and then again around January 8th or 9th we may see something to really get excited about.
Mother Nature seems confused this year.
And something that makes you want to go "huh??" and yeah the time stamp is correct and so that's a real "hmnn" but not going to think on that much. Someone needs to slap Mother Nature in the head a bit or reboot her because she's not working within the calendar or seasons this year! Note in years like this we tend to get real surprises, sometimes rain other times ice or snow so stay tuned!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Should be "wake up Mother Nature" check the calendar!! ;)
But there yesterday gone today! Not bad. Could have been way worse.
Busy day for me today, will talk on Christmas Eve weather and more so I'm curious on New Year's Eve and what we see in January of 2022.
I'm in Raleigh this month... but two of my grandchildren got to go to Breckingride! Nice... I'm not a skier, but apparently they are learning to ski before going back to Florida.
Have a wonderful day, a healthy day... a happy day.
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps... Where do you want to go to escape the cold or do you enjoy the change of seasons? One set of Miami kids are in Tallahassee visiting family and it's quite cold up there after the storm passed and the front moved through reinforcing already cool temps. It's Cold Front season!
Winter Solstice Delivering Florida Low Pressure System to Be Coastal Low ... Delivers Winter Temperatures to N FL & Rain to the Carolinas!
To be clear this is non tropical.
A bit subtropical maybe.
December Low... on Winter Solstice!
So let's talk about the Florida Low that will become the Carolina Coastal Low that will slide up the East Coast packing weather with it where ever it goes. In December in Florida we get these sorts of systems that spin up into a well defined entity, cross over Florida and help deliver cooler weather at least deep down into North Central Florida.
Florida Low Forms in GOM... Crosses Florida & Rides the Coast. Too Early for Snow but....Cute System for December! Winter Solstice Soon... Let's Flip the Switch to Snow!
This is a Low pressure system that crosses Florida.
It is not considered tropical but it's tropical like.
Forming down in the Gulf of Mexico ...
...aiming at the Big Bend of Florida.
Like some many others in any season....
..then riding up the coast.
Coastal Low!
Depending on which model you look at this has a chance of exploding at a high latitude, but that's far out and once this does spin up it becomes a fast mover for Florida and the SE Coast where people will watch it depending on how close to the coast it lingers.
The result is of course RAIN.
Rain in late December in Florida.
And along the areas closest to the coast.
Comes together around here... see above.
Wraps up as shown below.
Then exits and slides up the coast fast.
This happens often before cold temperatures work their way down into the still very warm Gulf of Mexico and we watch for rain events vs snow or ice as we have not yet really had a strong, long visit by any sort of Arctic weather yet in the South. We will have a brief visitation that feels more like it's flirting and then it retreats back where it belongs and people complain it's too warm for December.
I've lived in this neck of the woods for 13 years now and every, single Winter people get excited when the first freezing front brandishing cold spears of wintry air are flung this way and then they go back to where they came from fast and it warms up in December. People complain that it's too warm but since I have lived here, with the exception of the Crazy Winter of the Polar Vortex when it literally snowed everywhere even here .......this is why people move to Raleigh. You get the taste of the seasons without having to worry you will have to dig your car out of the snow in the morning. And, if we get a normal Raleigh snowfall the snow covers the car and by mid day it begins to melt away. In any given year something can go wrong and Mother Nature plays a trick on us and we get Snowmaggedon! This year is a La Nina year and it is not the friend of snow lovers here but many in Raleigh hope never to see this mess ever again. Obviously not me!
Actually going on 8 years ago now.
This was February 2021.
Again we get snow in January and February
Winter begins December 21st!
Til then we have rain.
And wishes for snow.
(except by those who moved here to ...
...escape the snow)
Who are you?
The Snow Wisher....
...the Snow Warrior?
Or are you a snowbird??
If that storm plays out....
...it'll be a Winter Solstic Storm.
The solstice often has a storm somewhere.
Enjoy the day......
... shop, play or watch football!
I'll be back another day.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps I'm not proofing this because I have a bad headache. No not a Covid Headache lol just a "weather change, barometric pressure headache" we started off in the high 60s and the temperature plunges this afternoon (so they say) to the low 40s! If you want snow........ go watch some on YouTube. Gentel music and nonstop snow! Voila!!
Updated 2 PM! High Wind Warnings in North Central US ... Strong Storm in NW... East Coast Still Waiting for Winter Weather. Noctural Tornadoes a Possibility.
Talk about a weather city!
Fog, Thunderstorms, Wind and Snow...
Understand the mustard brown is the area of concern.
Iowa is obviously where we are most concerned.
But weather is fluid.
And where "cells" that could spin show up...
...is what will tell the story.
Some updated discussion as new forecast discussion as come out of many NWS offices in the path of this severe weather event. Understand "severe weather" can include straight line winds and possible tornadoes that are moving at a fast forward speed and often form in real time so by the time they are visibly forming there isn't much time for warning. That is why it is important to set up your home for power outages and various weather dangers knowing where to go in your home as well as easy access to flashlights and fully charged phones and radios handy in case the power and cable goes whoosh with the wind!
Additionally the actual forward speed of this event will tell the story more than any factor on mutliple models that offer possible solutions. And, the possibility of nocturnal tornadoes that hit when most people are asleep is a real danger so please stay informed of the evolving situation as the evening plays out.
I just wanted to add in that this area is wide and goes beyond the general Des Moines area in Iowa that I am most currently concerned on. Even places further to the North such as St. Paul, Minnesota are not out of the woods. Below is an excellent forecast discussion from their National Weather Service that shows both the evolution and the dangers later this evening.
Their discussion sets the stage.
Then goes into important local details.
Today's Weather Warnings...
...High Wind Warnings in particular.
A wide area across the middle of the Country
The North Central US is especially in danger!
So what is it with all the high wind and severe weather warnings this December? Simply speaking we are in a stuck pattern where wintry weather and storms are in the NW and as they descend down into the High Prairie Provinces they Peter out a bit and when they get to the center of the country they run into warrm, moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico and wherever they meet trouble follows. I'd complain that was a long run on sentence, however this pattern has been a bit too run on for my liking as I'm in the part of the country where Winter is not happening and we are stuck watching as systems slide by to our North. While North Carolina is "North" Carolina, it is too far South to be getting any significant weather. May I add for most of the people who live here that is just plum perfect for most people here!
Ye Olde Earthnull shows the story well!
Big storm in the NW headed inland.
Air moving down across the Dakotas...
...warm air rushing up along the Mississippi River Valley.
Note the East Coast for now is quiet.
Actually in Raleigh we are fogged in....
...that happens often in December in NC.
i
Later today this happens!
You can easily lay this frontal progression...
...across the above Earthnull map.
And you can see where the trouble lies.
As always the Snow Total Graphic says it all.
So far this December....
...Winter is staying in the NW part of the US.
Very few instrusions South or into the MidAtlantic.
This too will change... but when?
You know everyone wants what they want whether it's likely to happen or not happen. That's just our nature and our nature varies from people who prefer mild weather and long seasons and that's why so many people from places plagued with nonstop snow who love the seasons but not snow move to Raleigh. Of course, people in Florida move to North Carolina because they get some seasons and the chance of snow. We have lots of seasons and very little snow in reality, but in any given year we can get snowed in for days. And, when we do get snow we make the headlines nationally as our roads ice over and are impossible to drive on, but that happens really rarely here. At the end of the 10 day period the chance of SNOW pops up for the New York to Baltimore I-95 area. Ten days away I remind you is not the most reliable forecat but it's an indication of when real "Winter" may happen and again it's worth noting we are in meteorological winter not WINTER after the Winter Solstice.
If you have friends or loved ones in the shaded bullseye area shown at the top to this page or a landlocked hurricane fanatic .... please pay attention to local warnings from your local National Weather Service. I use the word "local" twice, because it needs emphasis. Nothing is as valuable in this situation as paying attention to your LOCAL weather experts who can and will sniff out any dangerous set ups and please act accordingly and follow their expert advice. People could lose power, so set yourself up in case that should happen now and hopefully it doesn't happen.
Iowa is especially under the gun for trouble.
Windy trouble in particular.
From Rochester Minnesota South....
...into Iowa and surrounding states.
It's going to be a WINDY day!
The experts have insisted this is less about tornadoes and more about high wind warnings and straight line winds that will be followed by cold weather. Note such winds can turn over high profile vehicles such as large trucks as they travel across the highways of that area. Trees can come down somewhere and well in truth we have to wait and see what will really happen and hope there are no surprises.
That's it for today.
Not a very tropical weather blog this morning, but we are far removed from tropical trouble in our part of the world and so following the weather wherever it takes me.
90 People Dead from December Twisters. Tornadoes & Hurricanes Can Happen Anytime of the Year!! Should Meteorology Be Taught in High School? What Is More Useful Knowledge? Dissecting a Frog or Understanding the Dangers of Weather?
As always the New York Times has good information with all the details that answer most everyone's questions regarding the rarity of tornadoes in December. Note, when we do have tornadoes in December they are often in the South as the constant warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico mixes wickedly with cold, diving winter weather moving across the country. The "spin" set up is there as moisture comes in from the South, sometimes moving NNE and a front comes down at a different angle helping tornadoes to get going faster. The graphc below, with the accompaning link, shows how these forces meet in an environment beneficial to rotation developing.
Note the green arrow collides with the blue arrow.
In 2000 Alabama had a deadly tornado outbreak in December when 12 people lost their lives. The link to an article on that outbreak is below that accompanies the graphic above.
In 2015 Tornadoes raced across Mississippi and Tennessee leaving similar looking damage to what we saw this past weekend on December 16th, 2000. Yes, the scope of the damage was more limited, but similar.
We like to put "seasons" into neat little boxes and yet "Tornado Season" unlike Hurricane Season has no specific start nor end date to it, and the reality is any time of year when the atmospheric set up is right and way too ripe... tornadoes can happen. That goes for Hurricane Season too, and it's something well worth remembering!
Hurricane Alice formed so late in December of 1954 that it's track stretched from 1954 into 1955 giving the Virgin Islands a New Year's Eve to remember. Alice actually had a more defined eye than many of our hurricane contestants did this past 2021!
My bottom line today is that I really believe there should be more meteorology taught in schools so that the population of the future as they age out better understand a weather warning. What is more useful than learning about weather? When will you ever need to dissect a frog? Yes, there's some rudimentary biological knowledge gained for the few kids who are not groaning, moaning or making jokes in class while the frog is being dissected. Yet, the threat of severe weather is not properly understood by the general population in a time when everything is so easily accessible online; few take advantage of the information unless they are "weather people" or were hit by a stray December tornado or Hurricane Charley. Knowledge is power and we should empower children from a young age about a field of science that usually piques their interest to begin with as pretty much every child is spellbound by a hurricane headed their way or the promise of snow or the threat of a tornado.
Generally our "knowledge" starts in Pre-School when the teacher allows Billy or Bonnie to put a sunny sticker on the weather board vs a cloudy sticker. We need to fix that as the understanding of weather would have saved many lives this past year when Ida's flooding rains were aimed at New York and New Jersey yet people were out on the highways and died as flood waters dragged their car along with other vehicles under water. It's not about whether we put out too many weather warnings or watches or the graphics we use are difficult to understand, it is about the fact that a good part of the general public does not understand the most basic facts of severe weather and too often think the media is over hyping an approaching storm. Knowledge is power, I'll say it again and again.
Have a good day today... and please....be sure to give chairty to those in need. Give to the Red Cross or another charity you know is a reliable one with the ability to get the products to the people who need as well as properly distribute money.
Updated! December Tornado Outbreak. Deadly and Historic. Long Track Tornadoes Deliver Death and Tragedy
Updated..........10 PM Sunday Evening!
I took a ride at sunset after a good day with amazing conversations. Just after sunset these two planets hung low in the sky next to the oak tree that is finally turning colors and dropping it's leaves. I'm in North Carolina, far from the six states that suffered such horrific devastation yesterday. We don't think about tornadoes usually in December and yet they can happen any time the hot, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico feeds into a strong cold front. Hurricanes don't always happen at the peak of the Hurricane Season and have been known to pop up months out of season! Hail Happens! Hurricane Ida caused more deaths as she exited the country than when she made landfall. Weather somehow always surprises us.
People complain often about Twitter and yet it's a source of shared knowledge and for that I'm grateful. Someone gave me the name of the storm chaser who took the heartfelt images I used below earlier today. Another person tweeted a graphic showing the 1925 Tri-State Tornado next to the much longer path of yesterday's tornado that trashed six different states and killed way too many people. Some of the missing have been found and the feared death toll is lower than we previously projected and that's good, but whether we lose 100 people or "just 60" is not something to celebrate yet to give thanks. What is more important is to give charity in any way you can to those who are in need.
People who live are often scarred forever in subtle ways or not so subtle ways. I had a young man at my house for dinner years ago who heard there was severe weather in his home town. He immediately was worried on his wife back home as she had survived a tornado that hit her elementary school and while she survived, her best friend next to her died. Any time the lights flicker, or thunder crackles or hail hits the roof she would get terrified all over. Post-Traumatic Stress Syndrome plagues survivors of such tragedies. If you know someone who needs help, make sure they get help be it a tornado, an earthquake or a hurricane.
I tell people all the time that I'll take a hurricane over a tornado anytime, more so an earthquake as you have the ability to get out of danger if you need be it a safe shelter or travel to another place. The people who work up yesterday looking forward to a busy day on Saturday preparing for Christmas with plans to shop or decorate abruptly had their lives changed, rearranged and need help.
Amazingly of all the images the one at the top just totally did me in. I stared at the immensity of the power of a tornado to reach down out of the sky, drop down as if it was some vehicle of war and wrench the dome off of a large brick courthouse and suck all of the life out of a town and every other own for miles around in the path of a line of tornadoes that lased for 10 hours while most of us slept quietly in our beds oblivious to the severity of this historic event. Yes, we knew it would be bad and there was the chance of severe weather and tornadoes as warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air moved up towards a strong front sweeping across the country. But did any of us expect it to be this bad? Maybe, possibly and yet the depth of destruction always stuns even those of us who cover disasters and have chased storms and have seen it first hand.
Every. Single. Time.
I'm always in awe each time and thankful where I live we worry more on hurricanes than tornadoes dropping out of the sky on some relay, rampage ripping our hearts out and bringing death and destruction at a time of year we so desperately want to to see good cheer and happiness after the collective nightmare 2020 was for many we want bright lights, holiday happiness and churches filled with people singing praise of thanks and good tidings. And, yet Mother Nature never seems to ignore a beautiful church in the way of some destructive storm. Yes, long run on sentence because my mind is running through so many thoughts just now.
That is just so sad. I suppose we can be happy the Twisters did not hit Sunday Morning? And, again the oddness of Weird Science in that the prayer books are sitting there in perfect order as if nothing ever happened. I learned after Hurricane Andrew that rooms can be broken into by the devild wind, furniture rearranged, scratched and destroyed and pictures can remain in place perfectly as they hung straight up on the wall in their frames staring down at the destruction.
Pics like this always remind me of Hurricane Andrew.
It just looks as if some bomb went off or it was taken from a War Zone and indeed it was a war zone and the search to find anyone who is missing still alive is going on frantically across a large swath of a place where the South meets the Heartland.
While Kentucky can get severe weather and tornadoes, it's not the first place we think of as we do Kansas, Iowa and of course Oklahoma. As we begin the Winter of 2021 we have displaced unseasonal weather in an area where many were hoping for a White Christmas. It's very sad, it's humbling and it's why we have to and must continue research on Tornadoes, Severe Weather, Hurricanes, Earthquakes and every other field of Earth Science to better prepare populations, give earlier warnings that are taken seriously and learn better how to build in case of disasters.
When I first saw the NWS page with the area highlighted all I could think of was the New Madrid Fault Zone as that was what it outlined and yet here we are in December dealing with the strongest line of severe weather in easily over 120 years if not way more; this morning I read 130 years as meteorologists who study weather history try to figure out the details while the rest of us are numb.
It reminds me of 1925.
Tri-State Tornado Outbreak.
This was actually bigger, and longer.
And that was March....not December.
Adding this in Sunday evening...
... great graphic showing how the difference!
@ATXHarrisonTran on Twitter.
I'll remind you to donate.
Pray they find and save the wounded.
Pray for those who need.
We have only just begun weather wise this December and I'm pretty sure it will be randomly strewn with various sorts of trouble from Ice Storms to Blizzards and who knows what else Mother Nature has for us?
Going offline a bit today. Taking some private time to rest and connect with loved ones. I love going to Miami, but always exhausted when I get back and takes a while to readjust. I prefer when people come here, and yet more often than not we travel there and I'm tired of traveling; here is good for a chance! The weather here today is beautiful, and yes I know that can change fast. It was in the 70s yesterday and going down to 29 tonight, which is what makes everyone sick as the rollercoaster ride of December in Raleigh goes on and on until we get deeper into real winter. Enjoy your day and connect with your loved ones and appreciate all you have and please donate today and down the road when the set up for those who lost everything is set up .... to receive goods and to begin again. That is how we live life be it weather or otherwise. Sad, bad things happen and at some point we pull ourselves together and go about the process of starting over again!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
I'll put a video up tomorrow as there is no song I can really think of that would go with this tragedy but leaving you some links to check out.
I link to the Red Cross, because I know they are a real charity that many give to, yet there are many good charities local and otherwise in this area but it's always good to do your due dilligence. The Red Cross is set up to get help where it is needed fast and I know that because my brother has worked with them and it's an impressive organization. Please give and pray. I'll link to more charities later this week.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-State_tornado_outbreak An outbreak I actually first learned about in a short story written by F. Scott Fitzgerald. The Roaring 20s were exciting and wonderful and yet they were filled with severe, deadly weather be it tornadoes or hurricanes!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm