A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, May 31, 2020
Will TS AMANDA in the EPAC Crossover into the Gulf of Mexico & Become Cristobal? Possibly... NHC Watching, We ALL Are Watching. Are You Ready for 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
This is the area we are all watching.
Tropical Storm Amanda.
And possibilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Invest 92L is in the Atlantic currently.
Chances low but there.
I don't want us to forget it.
While obsessing on Amanda.
These are areas being watched.
For an uptick in tropical trouble.
On May 31st, 20320.
Are you ready for the Hurricane Season?
Mother Nature is...
She's so ready she started early in May.
Next storm up in the Atlantic is Cristobal!
The image above shows Amanda in the EPAC.
Where Amanda goes trouble may follow.
Sometimes an oldie goldie satellite loop is what I need on a Sunday Morning when I stayed up til 4 AM and then woke up groggy at 9 AM. It's May 31st, 2020 and I decided why not track Amanda as it seems Amanda wants to do a crossover dance into the Gulf of Mexico and if it does it will identify at Cristobal. So 2020 right/ Right.
So what do you do when the coffee and the shower doesn't wake you up? I had one Reese's Chocolate Peanut Butter Cup for breakfast. Mike says chocolate helps a headache. Hmnn I digress. But it definitely did make me feel better!
This is our system below in the EPAC you can see Amanda down there flowing North with the flow and that's what storms do, they don't buck the wind or the trends they look for an easy path to take when deciding where to go.
So let's look at the 11 AM information and note the cone of possibilities and marginal errors.
I have 2 basic rules when watching models and the NHC.
1. My first rule is I dislike discussing Crossover Storms that begin in the Eastern Pacific and end up in the Gulf of Mexico and yet they do happen, there are exceptions to every rule. They are long shots, yet as we all know sometimes when a long shot pays off it pays off in a big way and often in a memorable way.
2. I hate when the NHC puts up these loops with the circular cone tracks they usually never quite work out. I'll say it again, Matthew did not turn back to hit Miami and Palm Beach so while odd things can happen I'd bet against it. Amanada could dawdle, create horrendous flooding, mudslides and possible loss of life in Central America and Mexico and then sit there and spin or die there. Something else pops up in the Gulf of Mexico as the models are hungry for trouble and it would still be Cristobal. The tropical ball gets picked up and Cristobal runs with it. Or.....Amanda does the crossover dance and heads up towards the general Houston area but I'd watch carefully all the way to the Sabine River with this one. Check out the rain forecast for the next 5 days and extrapolate that Northward.
If Cristobal forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Can't promise he is a fast mover.
Models from Mike's Weather Page below.
He is updating 5 PM on Facebook I believe.
So where do we go from here?
I'm watching loops, models and Amanda...
And I'll update this blog later today.
I've been working on a post on the Hurricane Season.
2020 Hurricane Season. How Busy? Where Will They Make Landfall? Seasonal Update & Forecast Part 1.
Mike is great and I mean that everywhere.
You can listen to his Facebook Live.
Follow him online.
Download his App or watch him on Youtube.
He educates you and entertains you. A win win!
Otherwise in the tropics today...
I'll defer to my favorite Miami Meteorologist!
We're following 3 rain areas. The 1st could try & organize but even if it does, it'll stay over open waters. The 2nd may bring us a few downpours. The 3rd, moves north from Ctl America. If any of that rain splinters away, It could get real soggy again. pic.twitter.com/6nyZ8dGOIR
So let's talk about the 2020 Hurricane Season now.
We've been so busy we had 2 storms in May.
June 1st, 2020 official starting date.
Leaving you the links at the bottom blog today because this is intended to be your guide to the 2020 Hurricane Season. When I refer to Hurricane Country I mean specifically any beach or town from Maine to Brownsville Texas. I also mean obvoiusly any place in the Caribbean and for my part Miami is the capital of the Caribbean in ways so we all watch Miami, Cuba as well as Jamaica and the various large and small islands along the way. Central America, Mexico and the North Coasts of South America and the various vacation destinations near those beautiful tropical places that are prone during Hurricane Season to tropical weather.
If you're looking for things to do with your kids this summer.
Print out some maps and teach them how to track hurricanes.
They will learn both geography and meteorology.
And as advisories come out often they will be busy.
Most of the people I talk on learned to do this when young.
And, many of my friends did it for a living at the NHC.
How to track? Google it.
They will learn great skills.
And you'll be thrilled they are busy.
Buy a weather radio. Let them use it.
Today's post is all about 2020 Hurricane Season and I'll return to regular tropical discussion and a little bit of Hurricane History that we hope won't be repeating anytime soon next week. This is Part 1 to be followed by Part 2 on June 1st and it's all about the Hurricane Season that already began, but that will begin "officially" in a few days. There are many meteorological ingredients currently that show us what sort of stew or gumbo may be brewing as we get deeper into the Hurricane Season. A good Gumbo needs time to brew and for the flavors to merge together. The same goes with Pimento Cheese that is really easy to make if you have all the ingredients.
Ingredients are facts when it comes to discussing whether a hurricane season will be busy and has the potential for multiple landfalls or whether it will bring weather far out into the shipping lanes where eels swim in the Sargasso Sea. When it comes to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECASTING it's not about coming up with a wide variety of numbers such as "between 6 and 11 hurricanes will form" but it's all about WHERE WILL THEY FORM AND WHERE WILL THEY MAKE LANDFALL. Not all hurricanes make landfall, many dance far out in the Atlantic curving off of Africa too soon and they become beautiful "swimmers" as in beautiful on satellite imagery and not rearranging our coastal beaches or causing inland flooding.
So I'm more concerned with WHERE they may go and I'm going to leave you here with two excellent, very knowledgeable people I know who over time have never let me down. For the last several years they put out charts and maps and statistics and gave explanations and then I watched as hurricanes such as Michael and Florence came knocking at the doors of those towns. The hurricanes followed the meteorological patterns that were set up early on and traced the highs, followed the weakness in the high and looked for an area of low pressure to take aim at and if a town such as Wilmington or Myrtle Beach or Mexico Beach was in it's way so be it because Mother Nature don't care about your concerns or if you are trying to stay home for Covid... Mother Nature does what Mother Nature does and it's that simple. It is what it is and it is Hurricane Season 2020 so start preparing now.
Please read his blog. He keeps it short and serious. A chart below shows the depth of his research and his vast knowledge of Hurricane History. Due to the high interest in the 2020 Hurricane Season with the concerns of Covid 19 he asked to share his information that he usually only sends out to his subscribers.
I won't tell you how long I've been following him...
...or Jim because we don't want to say how old I am.
But it's been a long, long time.
He has never steered me wrong.
He has a pay site.
Check him out.
And he is on Twitter as is Jim so...
...follow them and their advice.
The GOM is at high risk.
Caribbean also is at high risk.
Cities along the E Coast will be depending on...
...the exact location of the High Pressure Ridge.
Rob from Crown Weather shows why below.
So we have both Jim and Rob conerned on the Gulf of Mexico.
Next we have Hurricane Man.
Josh AKA iCyclone
You can follow @icyclone everywhere.
But know he goes longer on his Facebook Page...
..than he does on Twiter or Instagram.
So check in there often as that's what he does.
From his Facebook post last night.
I'm adding in the location where the very wise and awesome Josh aka iCyclone is setting up his base of operations this year. I won't pull the mask off the old lone ranger ever but trust me he's not just "some dude" he's one of the smartest, wittiest and most adventorous people you will ever meet with one deep, defining passion and that is to be in the eye of a hurricane. And, normally when I say that I know he means only the BIG ONE vs a minimal Category 1 or 2; he dumped Florence for a bigger one further away and I teased him but he was right as Florence had seen better days and he was looking for an intense eye to be in not a dawdling, rainmaker. It is worth noting that Mister Hurricane Man is setting up in the same area that both the other two people here have pointed to as probable areas of concern. If I was you ........that would really concern me..... if I lived near those hurricane destinations.
Again a hurricane or tropical storm can pop up everywhere (Lord knows we saw that yesterday with Miss Bertha) and not all storms will follow the general pattern as the atmosphere always takes a break and does kinky things that throw a wrench into the overall plan so if you live in Hurricane Country preapare for a busy season as we haven't even made it to June 1st and we are looking for Cristobal to form soon. More on that in a few days. You can look online at the models and if you have problems finding them they are on the top left of Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com site. And, if you can remember this phrase that is pretty easy to remember and spell you can go to www.tropicaltidbits.com directly to the source. You can follow Crankyweather, Dabuh, Thor and well check out who I retweet on Twitter and as always choose wisely who you follow as the truth is long range models are mostly for "fun" to shoot the tropical breeze with and some are serious, some are playful and sometimes we are serious and playful all at the same time. We aren't the NHC and well you know where to find them. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
So that said... I'm going to leave you some links and maps and then I'm going to go make some pimento cheese and a "blintz casserole" and some brisket and chicken for the holiday of Shavous that always begins close to the start of the Hurricane Season. Sunday I will do a long, in depth look at models and what we can expect to see in June of 2020 as we roll into Prime Time Hurricane Tracking Season.
Thanks for your patience and as always follow who I follow on Twitter and you know who I trust the most or enjoy talking with as I'm always talking and retweeting what the post as they are a great team and they do a great job always. And please download this App or become familiar with them on Twitter, Instagram and in general online as they rock... they will rock you like a hurricane!
Coming across the finish line!
No one in the stands.
People rooting for it at home.
Safely social distancing.
TWC didn't even have anyone at the beach.....
It's a fast mover they said.....
Putting my shower off an hour.
I don't want to miss landfall.
At this point the C Storm models may verify.
Will the next one be a hurricane?
2012 was the last Bertha in this area....
Gee hope we don't end 2020 the same way.
Again this began down in Miami.
Where is Bertha going next?
North Carolina.
Though the cone goes to W NC.
But the rain will move from SC into NC.
This is from last night.
10 hours ago.
NAM model last night when I went to sleep.
Done deal the NHC would upgrade.
But happened even faster than the NAM showed.
Understanding how this happened is easier to understand when you have studied and researched tropical meteorology over time and when you watch the short term NAM for odd systems such as this one and it was apparent yesterday afternoon the NHC would most likely upgrade to Tropical Storm status as it was making landfall this morning. Why Tropical Storm vs Tropical Depression? Good question. Because it already had tropical storm force winds within it's ...stystem. Much the same way that Imelda was upgraded recently on landfall this is what the NHC is going to do with very small, fast moving systems. I'd have preferred they went to RED status last night earlier but this is apparently the new way things are done so .... okay.... it is what it is. It has a history of flooding as witnessed by it's recent trek across South Florida. If Bertha floods your yard, you remember Bertha.
I was looking for a song, a Monkees song because the lyrics "here it comes" or "here we come" came into my mind but this works perfectly. You know how some little kids take their first steps and then take off fast trying to explore the world before coming ashore fast? Well, you know what I mean so let's go with this one. Trust me her parents will remember that video for a long time and there will be videos of flooding and nasty weather, possibly nasty bands of weather while Bertha takes her first steps on shore in South Carolina in about 30 minutes from now.
As for the launch in Florida, it may happen. Time will tell. It's 2020, time moves fast. I may get out to Fresh Market later this morning before it rains here in Raleigh at the rate this is unfolding.
As I said last night on Twitter.... we know how 2012 began tropically speaking. Lots of storms in this neck of the woods. We know how 2012 ended in New York City, so hoping that 2020 is not a total repeat of 2012 but I wouldn't rule it out as a possible.
Stay tuned. I'll add info later or start a new blog for landfall... in about an hour.
As for Hurricane History.
Let's go back to 2000.
Remember the year we worried on the new Millenium?
The Miami area got slammed with Bertha like rains...
...before Leslie even formed.
Again, history repeats often.
This is from 2000 when Leslie was forming.
The coming attractions drowned Miami.
Note before the track began.
It sat over the Miami area....
While doing Hurricane History this week it occured to me last night to explain what happened Pre Leslie as it was forming, but before it formed when it caused more damage to South Florida than most tropical storms or weak Category 1 Hurricanes have done in the past.
Also still kicking up the afternoon thunderstorms in SFL.
Record rainfall in some locations there...
..and rainy season is just beginning.
Elongated center currently.
8 AM below...
Could the launch be delayed?
Definite maybe.
Thunder and lightning currently....
...in the forecast.
Check back often.
I'm going to cover the Tropical Disturbance at the top here.
Then doing more Hurricane History below afterwards.
Just a heads up.
Good video down below.
Our Yellow X has moved up the coast.
Actually it's currently sitting over the Cape.
Something about the fumes maybe?
Space Coast? Daytona?
Always seems to launch these systems.
Tropical Storm Julia formed over land there.
I chased it ... spent the night in a hotel room.
On the ocean... wild waves in the moonlight....
Yes, there's a launch there ....
...but it's tomorrow as I said previously.
This No Name Tropical Disturbance should mvoe up the coast.
Videos below show the story.
It even shows us where it is going.
.
Wait for it ... turn sound up. Lots of players here .. more than I mention. Water vapor loop shows where this is going .. taking its rain with it #Georgia#Carolinaspic.twitter.com/X5W7Vfg8Uw
Hint it's not going where the High Pressure is digging in.
And the feature in the GOM is lifting it.
Towards the Carolinas.
Hopefully away from the launch...
...but time will tell.
In the EPAC...
60% chance of something forming.
Models have hinted at a cross over system.
Yes... into the Caribbean.
We will see.
As for me.
I'm looping.
I prefer watching Thor and Dabuh doing the models.
Well, until something actually forms.
Much more entertaining and educational!
Keep watching.....
Now for Hurricane History.
Yesterday I did the 1945.
Read yesterday's blog for that Miami Cat 4.
Today I'm doing 1947.
Yes South Florida had 2 Cat 4 Hurricanes.
2 years apart making landfall!
It's what I call the "Forgotten Hurricane"
Old Timers remember it.
But few hear about it.
Show that track to the best meteorologists.
They will almost all say ANDREW!!
Few will say 1947!!
We didn't give names then...
...see what's in a name.
If it had a name it would be remembered easier. And, yes history repeats often that's why we study hurricane history! Honestly I had never heard of this hurricane when I was young. I learned about it on a trip to a pier in Ft. Lauderdale where they had pictures on the wall of a restaurant of the beach being battered by this hurricane. And I just stared in amazement at the "forgotten hurricane." I call it that because that's what the guy behind the counter called it. Then he told me his first hand reports walking me through the images on the wall. Years later a friends mother in Miami told me as a young girl she drove from Allapattah to West Miami to check on a house her fiance and her were building to see if it was all right. She said it was a sea of water everywhere and she made her way carefully to Flagler Street (a wide street) and slowly drove out on the white line in the middle that was the only area slightly dry and she made it out to the house that was okay but also surrounded my flooding. I've met store owners in Miami Springs far from Ft. Lauderdale Beach that told me every business and home was flooded worse than any other hurricane they could ever remember and yet few remember it existed. Go figure.
Impact was across a very wide are of Florida... not just FLL, Miami & Palm Beach....
Note the list of references and footnotes on Wikipedia tell the story as well. From Daytona to Miami Beach to the West Coast of Florida and the personal stories from those who lived on Hollywood Beach that had to evacuate online are excellent ...shown below. Know that while we always focus on LANDFALL and STORM SURGE often a Major Hurricane leaves tragic impacdts very far inland away from the film crews and storm chasers at the ocean. Remember that if you live "safe" "far inland" later this year and a hurricane threatens to make landfall at your favorite beach.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
