January Thaw... Severe Weather in the South & Winter Rebounds in the North.

I've outlined the temperatures above 40 in blue.

60s in areas that often are frozen in January.

This is a January thaw... it's not Spring.

Though Ground Hog Day is coming soon...

In Iowa on Monday weather should not be a factor.

What comes after the thaw is a blast of winter once again.

Throughout most of Iowa weather ......

....should not stop anyone from going to a caucus.

Might be too warm for some... 

If the storm system was to speed up... it could be a problem.

But it's not forecast to hit until Tuesday.

Weather can sometimes play a part on caucus night

However people in Iowa are used to snow.

In North Carolina it would shut down everything.

They'd probably delay the primary ;)

Winter Storm Kayla.

Oddly its almost as warm today in Raleigh as it is in Jax

When you have warm weather in the South and Cold air Diving down.

You have Severe Weather where ever those forces meet.

Stay tuned.

Strong Sub Tropical Jet from El Nino will bring another round of severe weather.

So posting this reminder below.

 Winter Storm Kayla should be severe in the South.

And yet it will bring winter back into the Great Lakes.

Stay tuned. 

Tomorrow could be more a political storm than a winter storm.

It just may be a Maniac Monday.

Besos BobbiStorm

Iowa Weather is Not a Factor Now But Could Be. Hurricane Season and Politics....Why They Are Similar. More Severe Wxr Possible in South FL.

In Miami... more rain, more of the same.

Drive to work for my kids this morning.

Drive from Miami to Broward a real mess.

Son in South Dade said FIU looked like a Tropical Storm.

So stay on top of the weather in Miami.

For the blog today I'm talking on politics.

The 2016 election is a lot like the Hurricane Season.

Climo vs weather on any given day.

Some things to think on...

Let's talk about politics and weather.

First off know I am a registered Independent.

And that is who I am ... 

I vote for the person I feel would best fit the job.

That said one of my degrees is in International Relations.

I was in Political Science class and agreed to take an INR class.

I loved it and declared a second major.

International Relations is heavy in:

Geography

Demography

World Economics.

Politics

Oceanography (really)

History.

Maps...so so so many maps.

Anything that has a value in International Relations

It should really be called International Politics but I didn't name it.

So during any big political event I'm entranced.

As a student of history happening in real time it's fascinating.

So that said let's  talk about Iowa and the weather.

The weather in Iowa today is a pretty nice day for Winter.

If there isn't a ton of snow on the ground with more coming down...

It's an almost Spring like day.

If the weather is even flirting with 32 degrees it's warm.

15 degrees in the evening is cold for me but just another day in Iowa.

I say this as I've heard news commentators say how frigid cold it will be.d

Obviously they have not spent a winter in Iowa.

Weather could become a factor but it's not as of yet.

Monday Night as of now is not a problem.

Tuesday it would be a problem.

Weather changes as often as voters minds in Iowa.

If its true and 40% of the people do not yet know who they support.

So let's talk about Iowa. 

It's not all about Des Moines.

It's a big state. People drive long distances often.

People often work in nearby states.

They may work in Minnesota and commute.

Or they may have a good job at the Walmart in Wisconsin.

They drive 30 minutes fast over open roads to go to Walmart.

Let's look at Postville, Iowa a city I have spent time in....

If you want to go to Walmart you can drive to 2... 

The drive to the one in Wisconsin is a prettier drive.

The yellow dot is Postville. 

You can cross the beautiful Mississippi River and go to Wisconsin.

In the same time it takes to drive on I95 in Miami to work.

Faster to get to Praire Du Chien than it does Miami to Miami Beach.

Things are just different in Iowa.

I read that Bernie Sanders got 2,300 people in Decorah, Iowa.

On the surface that's huge. Well huge for Decorah.

Did they come because they support him or are curious?

Does Sanders pull huge crowds from hard core supporters...

or...

People who are just curious what it is to "feel the burn"

??

Same I wonder with Trump.

Is his support solid or is he a mere curiosity?

Entertainment or the Real Thing?

Hilary pulled only a few hundred.

However Hilary supporters don't need to go to a rally.

Hilary supporters support Hilary.

They don't even watch the democratic debates from what I've seen.

They know they are voting or Hilary.

So is a factor the lack of thousands at her rallies?

Honestly I do think so.

Bernie is pulling them in... packing them in.

In small towns that I have traveled to ... he is packing them in.

Decorah is a big town. It has a traffic light and fast food.

There's a community college there.

https://www.nicc.edu/

You can move the video around.

Please do...incredible light show as well.

COLD tho. Honest.

It's all a matter of perspective.

To put this into perspective I was at a concert in Miami last week.

At night on the water .. my daughter was wearing gloves.

It was in the high 40s or low 50s.. felt like the 30s. 

Looks like they were dressed for Iowa....

My son looking around grounds before the event.

He was a sponsor. I wanted to see the sunset.

We went early.

He's wearing a warm winter coat in Miami. 

Low 50s...

There were 4,300 people at the concert.

Alex Clare doing a Chabad concert with other acts.

Coconut Grove in the dead of winter after a cold front passed through.

Weather was a factor or we might have hit 5,000.

In Iowa weather being in the 20s when they leave for the caucus is not a factor.

No snow, no ice, no winter storm.

Bernie took a winter vacation to Washington DC 

Nice photo op after meeting with Obama and Biden.

Was that a dress rehearsal?

Note he left his winter coat in Iowa.

Almost balmy after Iowa and New Hampshire.

I find it interesting. 

I'm not a supporter.

For a socialist he is quite the capitalist if you ask me.

The cost of his bumper stickers is high.

Though if you call they may send you one for free.

You'll never get off his list.

I once called Hilary's office in Miami.

We are still having a communication even tho I unfriended us...

As for the Republicans..... 

Trump is indeed the elephant in the debate.

The fly on the wall perhaps.

How much solid support does Trump have?

It's an interesting question.

He is more used to NY and WPB than Iowa.

Yet his brand of politics seem to sell there.

Time will tell soon.

In 2016 the two leading candidates for both races seem to be...

Two old angry white men.

Honest.

Who saw that coming?

My nephew who majors in Political Science at FIU loves Ben Carson.

I mean LOVES Ben Carson.

Ben Carson is his hero.

My son who is studying architecture at FIU likes Marco Rubio.

They both admit there are a lot of Sanders supporters at FIU.

So is this like Hurricane Bertha forming in 1996?

John Hope said it was too far out and would not form yet.

There were no blue dots in the Atlantic that far out for July.

And then Bertha against all the odds formed.

Odds were it would not form.

It could not form that early in July.

If it did form it would not get far.

It would eventually fall apart and not be able to sustain itself.

And yet it made landfall in North Carolina.

John Hope ended up covering it on TWC.

Weather is a lot like politics.

They happen in real time.

Anomalies occur in any given year.

Variables:

Stock Market

Terrorism

Being honest... a long way to go still.

Will Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders make it......

..... to the big show in November?

November is AFTER the END of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Think on it a it.

June

July

August

September

October...all over..

November with those odd quirky tracking storms.

We have a long, long way to go before this drama is over.

On a personal level my grandson who grew up in Iowa playing in snow.

Is now playing in Seattle ;)

They packed up and hit the road and never looked back!!

Iowa is an interesting place.

I liked it in ways.

More than I thought I would.

Can't wait to see what will happen tonight at the debate.

Weather is not a factor now.

Will weather become a factor on caucus night? 

Weather is a factor in South Florida again today.

So hope everyone down in the Keys.... 

....are paying attention to that line of storms.

But we do get thunderstorms often in Florida.

Iowa does not have a Winter Storm today.

Will it have one next week?

Yes but the forecast as of now shows it post caucus. 

It does have a storm of media buzz over Sanders and Trump.

It's a win win for Sanders.

Even if he places a close second it's way more than people expected.

Hilary was expected to be crowned the candidate.

Sanders was written off as a joke.

Trump was written off as a side show ....

...people are still waiting for his bubble to burst.

Oddly BOTH parties have the same problem.

They are both terrified of their surging front runner.

Interesting.

Could be a break out night for ...

Rubio

Rand

Cristie

Bush?

Cruz... how will he handle the center stage spot?

Like weather .... politics can change fast.

Can the Euro or the GFS predict the winner of the Iowa election?

I think not.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... For those still reading this is a bonus.

Some say the season will be quiet.

I've heard others say if the fronts are still on the map...

...we could have an early GOM season.

I know I'll be watching the debate tonight.

I love politics especially in the off season ;)

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.de/2007/01/postville-iowa-looks-lot-like.html

Updated! S FL EF-1 Tornado!

South Florida is under the gun for severe weather today.

Possibly tornadoes.

STAY INFORMED.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/cities/miami.htm

http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/fl.php?x=1

NEW CELL MOVING THRU... 

Radar image of event.

Jury is out still if this was straight line winds or a tornado.

Note the line snaking through South Florida

This is breaking news.

I'll update as more details come in.

This was not unexpected.

When you see this signature on the satellite imagery it screams tornado.

http://www.wsvn.com/weather

http://www.local10.com/

Be back with more details.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... This set up will stick around for the next day or two.

Blizzard of 2016 From NYC to Miami. Snow Baby...

This is my favorite street in New York..or one of them.

I lived on this street.

It's Crown Heights, Brooklyn.

A beautiful street in the snow.

The Blizzard of 2016 came and went.

Everyone is out in the snow taking pictures.

Blue skies, sunshine and snow everywhere.

Record breaking snow.

My task today is to say one thing.

Weather is always happening.

It is often history in the making.

Sometimes we are able to witness such storms.

Yesterday I was in Miami picking coconuts up off the ground.

Crazy winds, coconuts missing people as they are falling...

.... plop, plop on the ground.

Actually the boughs of coconuts sounded like nuclear explosions.

It was oddly part of the Winter Storm that brought crazy winds to Miami.

I'm on vacation. Here in Miami for a few music concerts.

One for Benny Friedman who is ... a close family friend and more.

My son works with him in the music world.

Another... is a concert in the Grove with Alex Clare and others.

Another son is involved in that concert production.

We are an artsy musical family.

So hate to rub his in but I'll be watching the sunset in paradise.

Oddly I'm wearing my white furry boots....

.... because it is freezing even in Miami.

My kids up north are having fun with photo shoots.

Seems the new grandson's first official baby pic is in the snow.

Seems his name should have been Chase ;)

Storm chaser daughter having fun in the snow.

So is baby Ber.

Kid seems to love it. Go figure.

Oh my goodness.

Where ever you be... enjoy your weather.

As Joe Bastardi says ... "its the only weather you got" 

I think that's what he says.

He does argue snow totals in NYC.

We can figure that all later.

In NC they had snow, ice but nothing epic.

If I can manage to get back into RDU ...

...maybe I'll catch the next one.

Besos BobbiStorm

My Shabbos in NMB.

God gave us coconuts... so we made drinks!

Winter Storm Jonas. Still so many questions... Cantore in DC... Says a lot.

Everyone in the winter warning area wants to know... 

What are they getting exactly????

That's the story I'm getting.

Best guess is DC is "ground zero" for this storm.

Virginia you're in it.

Baltimore... messy.

New York ... iffy what you are getting still.

Try Again Later.

What we do know is Jonas blew Hilary off the cover of Drudge.

See... I was right. He's a weather geek...

Poof!! She's gone with the winter weather...

Carolina.... always a crazy quilt of winter weather.

Looks a lot like my long multi-colored skirt I wear so often.

So this is your cheat sheet for winter weather.

Note I am getting RAIN in South Florida.

I've had people in Raleigh text me asking me why snow turned over to rain.

I told them... it hasn't started, keep watching.

The forecast from NWS makes your head spin.

Snow...then rain....then freezing rain..turning back to snow then rain.

Winter Weather Whiplash.

So going to start here with something from TWC. A good discussion on the concerns of ice storms. Icy conditions and various types of winter weather.

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-jonas-high-winds-coastal-flood-threats

The Ice may be the big news.

Travel Impacts may be the big news.

Even if you are not in a winter area your plane might be coming from there.

You may be stranded anywhere waiting....

Check twice if you are traveling anywhere today.

Hopefully RDU will be open on Tuesday when I get back.

I'm in Miami. Rainy, gray, tropical Miami.

Short sleeves and downpours.

Flip flops and Cuban Coffee.

I wore a sweater today.

Don't laugh. The AC was really cold.

Well when it rains and it's set low... 

Sorry but true.

I've learned this about winter weather. It's very difficult to pin it down. Winter storms hide in stealth mode until they burst onto the scene with snow and ice. Their path is iffy as if they are afraid of a real commitment. Hard to track, slow to form and almost impossible to get right. I finally "get" why real forecasters wait for a good winter storm to test their skills against.

I juggle many commitments. And as much as I would love, love, love to be in Raleigh this weekend I hope to catch the next one. Some events repeat in life often or often enough. Others are time sensitive and you have to make the call and once you do don't look back. An old boyfriend told me often "you win some, you lose a lot" and he was right though I often think he didn't try hard enough but I digress a bit here as I ponder life. Doesn't help to cry over spilled snow storms, there will be another one coming along soon. Maybe even next week....   And, I'll be in always messy Baltimore in February and am plotting a trip to NY before winter is over. So... going to enjoy the gray day in Miami, watch the liquid snow flakes falling from the sky and party with my family for my daughter's birthday because that's what we do. We party well... well we party a lot. We are a sort of party lot ;)

If God gives you lemons make lemonade. If you want to spice it up add a little grape juice and make pink lemonades. If the snow turns over to an icy mess... play ice hockey ;)

Just remember this storm is for now a slow moving winter disaster.

Just because it turns over to rain ... don't think it won't turn back to snow.

Tennessee is really in it.

Love the way Brad does weather so much I want to move to Charlotte ;)

Well that and the little crowns on the street signs...

So here I sit watching the Twitter Feed...

...watching the rainfall.

A tale of 2 cities ... 

73 in Miami.

Snow in Raleigh.

My 2 best friends here.. Blondie and the other one who used to be Red.

My grandson who is a lot of fun.

And going out to get some good pics of the weather.

It's all about where you are at any given moment.

Not 5 minutes after we passed this spot there was a bad accident.

Police cars and fire rescue went racing down Broward Blvd..

My son sent out a message to everyone to drive safe.

We must have passed 3 big accidents on the way back to Hollywood.

So where ever you are... enjoy where you are.

Make the most of it. 

And let me know what you got from Winter Storm Jonas 

(said as if Walter Cronkite was still doing the news)

And there's another winter storm behind this one.

Yes Virginia... there is a winter this year.

It's not a one hit wonder.

Winter of 2016.

Then comes Hurricane Season of 2016.

Something to think on ....

On the Edge of a Winter Storm

Problem with Winter Storms is they have a tail not just a head.

A lot of hype talk on "epicenter" being used.

It's a winter storm not an earthquake.

Great signature for trouble.

As much as we can wonder who gets what in NC, VA, DC etc...

Some places going to be lashed by that nasty tail down in the GOM.

Really wicked. Looks like a red tornado doesn't it?

Not a good sign.

Loop.

Watch that storm wind up.

But it's going deep in the GOM.

How much moisture ..tropical moisture will it tap?

Hope people are paying attention to the tail while watching where it's headed.

Currently the storm is here under the yellow circle.

Winding up.

Tail down in the Gulf of Mexico.

Moving on the Carolinas then DC VA NE...

In Raleigh stores are sold out of bread.

Not milk as much as bread.

My husband sent me that pic... 

not much bread left.

I did tell him to go yesterday but well... 

He has this belief that when ppl go crazy they get nothing.

Time will tell in Raleigh.

Harris Teeter was out of produce.

That's a store name.. really.

People panic.

They worry more on Ice Storms.

Someone may get an Ice Storm.

Someone else is getting buried under snow.

Someone else is fighting with their spouse on spending $400 for...

...a no show snow storm.

I'll save you the sordid details from my wintry day in Miami.

Breakfast in Bal Harbor.. 

Lunch in Kendall.

Late snack in Key Largo watching a gray sunset.

Surreal.

Only the smallest hint of color in the water.

A rum and coke made it perfect.

An old boyfriend's mother taught me to drink rum and coke.

Really, go figure.

Wasn't a day for a Bahama Mama ya know?

Up in the Carolinas it's an odd menu.

Iffy slivers of winter weather for someone somewhere.

That's more color than in my sunset... 

South Carolina doesn't get much.

NC gets a mixed bag of questions.

Further up the coast there are more questions.

Could this forecast play out? Verify?

This may be random but...

Stormforce stands with Rand.

I know he would want me to tell you that....

Let me explain it like this.

This is the State of the Union.

Winter has found the East Coast.

This is not the biggest snow storm of all time.

Though for someone it may be.

It's not the 1993 Superstorm.

Or the Wall Street storm when it was buried in snow...

It's Winter.

Wild and in your face and threatening to create winter havoc.

Drudge does not Stand with Rand.

Or Hilary.

The real story here tomorrow will be WEATHER.

Most likely.

Unless as some have sarcastically said we are being punked.

It's not real. 

With any luck Hilary will get a day of rest tomorrow ...

...as the real story becomes the Winter Storm.

Wes is good.

I'll update tomorrow.

We'll see what we will see.

But the storm is coming...together nicely.

Besos BobbiStorm.