Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Iowa Weather is Not a Factor Now But Could Be. Hurricane Season and Politics....Why They Are Similar. More Severe Wxr Possible in South FL.

In Miami... more rain, more of the same.

Drive to work for my kids this morning.

Drive from Miami to Broward a real mess.
Son in South Dade said FIU looked like a Tropical Storm.

So stay on top of the weather in Miami.

For the blog today I'm talking on politics.
The 2016 election is a lot like the Hurricane Season.
Climo vs weather on any given day.
Some things to think on...

Let's talk about politics and weather.
First off know I am a registered Independent.
And that is who I am ... 
I vote for the person I feel would best fit the job.

That said one of my degrees is in International Relations.
I was in Political Science class and agreed to take an INR class.
I loved it and declared a second major.
International Relations is heavy in:
World Economics.
Oceanography (really)
History. so so many maps.
Anything that has a value in International Relations
It should really be called International Politics but I didn't name it.

So during any big political event I'm entranced.
As a student of history happening in real time it's fascinating.

So that said let's  talk about Iowa and the weather.

The weather in Iowa today is a pretty nice day for Winter.
If there isn't a ton of snow on the ground with more coming down...
It's an almost Spring like day.
If the weather is even flirting with 32 degrees it's warm.
15 degrees in the evening is cold for me but just another day in Iowa.
I say this as I've heard news commentators say how frigid cold it will be.d
Obviously they have not spent a winter in Iowa.
Weather could become a factor but it's not as of yet.
Monday Night as of now is not a problem.
Tuesday it would be a problem.
Weather changes as often as voters minds in Iowa.
If its true and 40% of the people do not yet know who they support.

So let's talk about Iowa. 
It's not all about Des Moines.
It's a big state. People drive long distances often.

People often work in nearby states.
They may work in Minnesota and commute.
Or they may have a good job at the Walmart in Wisconsin.
They drive 30 minutes fast over open roads to go to Walmart.

Let's look at Postville, Iowa a city I have spent time in....
If you want to go to Walmart you can drive to 2... 
The drive to the one in Wisconsin is a prettier drive.

The yellow dot is Postville. 
You can cross the beautiful Mississippi River and go to Wisconsin.
In the same time it takes to drive on I95 in Miami to work.
Faster to get to Praire Du Chien than it does Miami to Miami Beach.
Things are just different in Iowa.

I read that Bernie Sanders got 2,300 people in Decorah, Iowa.
On the surface that's huge. Well huge for Decorah.
Did they come because they support him or are curious?

Does Sanders pull huge crowds from hard core supporters...
People who are just curious what it is to "feel the burn"
Same I wonder with Trump.
Is his support solid or is he a mere curiosity?
Entertainment or the Real Thing?

Hilary pulled only a few hundred.
However Hilary supporters don't need to go to a rally.
Hilary supporters support Hilary.
They don't even watch the democratic debates from what I've seen.
They know they are voting or Hilary.

So is a factor the lack of thousands at her rallies?
Honestly I do think so.
Bernie is pulling them in... packing them in.
In small towns that I have traveled to ... he is packing them in.
Decorah is a big town. It has a traffic light and fast food.
There's a community college there.

You can move the video around.
Please do...incredible light show as well.
COLD tho. Honest.
It's all a matter of perspective.

To put this into perspective I was at a concert in Miami last week.
At night on the water .. my daughter was wearing gloves.
It was in the high 40s or low 50s.. felt like the 30s. 

Looks like they were dressed for Iowa....

My son looking around grounds before the event.
He was a sponsor. I wanted to see the sunset.
We went early.
He's wearing a warm winter coat in Miami. 
Low 50s...

There were 4,300 people at the concert.
Alex Clare doing a Chabad concert with other acts.
Coconut Grove in the dead of winter after a cold front passed through.
Weather was a factor or we might have hit 5,000.

In Iowa weather being in the 20s when they leave for the caucus is not a factor.
No snow, no ice, no winter storm.

Bernie took a winter vacation to Washington DC 
Nice photo op after meeting with Obama and Biden.
Was that a dress rehearsal?
Note he left his winter coat in Iowa.
Almost balmy after Iowa and New Hampshire.

I find it interesting. 
I'm not a supporter.
For a socialist he is quite the capitalist if you ask me.

The cost of his bumper stickers is high.
Though if you call they may send you one for free.
You'll never get off his list.
I once called Hilary's office in Miami.
We are still having a communication even tho I unfriended us...

As for the Republicans..... 
Trump is indeed the elephant in the debate.
The fly on the wall perhaps.

How much solid support does Trump have?
It's an interesting question.
He is more used to NY and WPB than Iowa.
Yet his brand of politics seem to sell there.

Time will tell soon.

In 2016 the two leading candidates for both races seem to be...
Two old angry white men.
Who saw that coming?

My nephew who majors in Political Science at FIU loves Ben Carson.
I mean LOVES Ben Carson.
Ben Carson is his hero.

My son who is studying architecture at FIU likes Marco Rubio.

They both admit there are a lot of Sanders supporters at FIU.

So is this like Hurricane Bertha forming in 1996?
John Hope said it was too far out and would not form yet.
There were no blue dots in the Atlantic that far out for July.

And then Bertha against all the odds formed.

Odds were it would not form.
It could not form that early in July.
If it did form it would not get far.
It would eventually fall apart and not be able to sustain itself.

And yet it made landfall in North Carolina.
John Hope ended up covering it on TWC.

Weather is a lot like politics.
They happen in real time.
Anomalies occur in any given year.

Stock Market
Being honest... a long way to go still.

Will Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders make it......
..... to the big show in November?

November is AFTER the END of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Think on it a it.
October...all over..
November with those odd quirky tracking storms.

We have a long, long way to go before this drama is over.

On a personal level my grandson who grew up in Iowa playing in snow.

Is now playing in Seattle ;)
They packed up and hit the road and never looked back!!

Iowa is an interesting place.
I liked it in ways.
More than I thought I would.

Can't wait to see what will happen tonight at the debate.
Weather is not a factor now.
Will weather become a factor on caucus night? 

Weather is a factor in South Florida again today.

So hope everyone down in the Keys.... 
....are paying attention to that line of storms.

But we do get thunderstorms often in Florida.
Iowa does not have a Winter Storm today.
Will it have one next week?
Yes but the forecast as of now shows it post caucus. 

It does have a storm of media buzz over Sanders and Trump.
It's a win win for Sanders.
Even if he places a close second it's way more than people expected.
Hilary was expected to be crowned the candidate.
Sanders was written off as a joke.

Trump was written off as a side show ....
...people are still waiting for his bubble to burst.

Oddly BOTH parties have the same problem.
They are both terrified of their surging front runner.

Could be a break out night for ...
Cruz... how will he handle the center stage spot?

Like weather .... politics can change fast.

Can the Euro or the GFS predict the winner of the Iowa election?
I think not.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... For those still reading this is a bonus.
Some say the season will be quiet.

I've heard others say if the fronts are still on the map...
...we could have an early GOM season.
I know I'll be watching the debate tonight.
I love politics especially in the off season ;)


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