Thanksgiving. Football. Wicked Weather in Central US... Non Tropical Swirls in Atlantic

Mike said it pretty well on his Facebook Page.

Happy Thanksgiving!

I'll add a thanks to my readers, friends...who follow my weather ramblings.

Musings?

Watching football. Keep Pounding indeed... 

Weather is warm enough to have screen door open in NC.

Sweet. A touch of "home" feeling not cold.

Good link Mike has put up as he changes over the page to winter weather.

Central part of the country dealing with wicked weather.

The rest of us are able to watch the moon rise . . . 

In the Atlantic there is a swirl and nothing more.

Maybe a Gale Center or Low will develop ...

Just saying it's there and fun to watch ...

See?

Though if anything develops it would be more like winter weather.

Interesting graphic online for New England.

Just "interesting"

Winter on the way... in Oklahoma.

As I sit here looking through the paper...watching football.

It occurs to me I don't really "want" much...

...well in Thanksgiving Day Sales.

I want peace.

I want money to go see my kids...travel... relax...breathe.

I want my kids to be healthy.

My grand kids to be healthy.

I want my friends and family to be well...

I want good quality of life... long years.

Lots of laughs with Malka and Sharon and others.

Eat good food and not read about terrorism or crime.

Laugh, love and be silly.

Can money buy the weather you like?

Ask Lex Luthor ;)

Happy Thanksgiving... 

Enjoy today, work out tomorrow ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps ..They say you can never go home again. 

One of my favorite holidays movies.

So real life ... well at least for some of us lol.

Falling Into Winter. Hurricane Season Ending Soon... Nov 30th...

A very short post here.

More a pictorial essay.

It's not one front but the reinforcing front that's note worthy..

Look at those cold air clouds off the East Coast.

Really very cold across a good part of Hurricane Country.

Carolinas.. Virginia... Mid Atlantic.. NYC wow it's cold.

Only a few leaves left on the trees.

They stand out magically.

Sunshine shows them off.....

Today was that sort of day.

Caught this pic while walking today.

Winter is ominously here.

Sunday Night the sunset was purple and pink.

Crazy... most of my NY feed was filled with pics of the unusual sunset.

Real pic there...no filter used.

Walked out of 770 in Crown Heights and WOW..

Tonight the colors were gone....

...though I did catch a moon in the sky at sunset.

Miami was sad with the death of my sister-in-law.

New York was exciting with the birth of a grandson.

Time to go home to where ever home is these days.

I get confused for obvious reasons.
I travel a lot.

But you know...the sun always rises.

The moon always rises...

Sometimes you can see it...

..sometimes you can't.

To quote a friend...

"Life goes on..."

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

On the road. Will Update on WXR Later Tonight... Been a sad week

A lot of tropical moisture in the Caribbean. 

Old frontal boundary there.

New frontal boundary here.

My sister-in-law Roberta passed away.

I've been busy with funeral arrangements.

What we call "shiva" ... Google it.

A week of friends paying their respects.

Helping out, seeing family.

Roberta and I met in 1988 and became fast friends.

My brother met her a while later through me...

...and they eventually married.

As I never had a sister....

...and she was an only child...

We were closer than most sister-in-laws.

And as life comes and goes...

I'm going to NY to help my daughter who just had a baby.

Well nice to see the baby.

Sad because Roberta wanted so badly to see Dina's baby.

Everyone knows this stuff but... you forget it when you are feeling sick.

She was confused, not dizzy but feeling funny.

She took blood pressure meds but was prone to be lax... 

https://www.goredforwomen.org/about-heart-disease/symptoms_of_heart_disease_in_women/symptoms-of-a-stroke/

Her tongue felt funny.

She was disoriented.

She didn't go straight to the hospital.

She waited ....though in her case it might not have made a difference.

We will never know so...

www.goredforwomen.org

Learn the signs of a stroke.

She was 52 years old and left behind a 20 year old son.

A lot of nieces of nephews.

Her brother, me..and some distant cousins.

Learn the signs of a stroke.. please.

If you see someone having one.. just call 911 don't ask.

They will say "don't worry I'm fine"

Just do it.

Thank you for reading my rant.

I'll be more upbeat in future posts.

You can't bring back someone you love.

You can only go on and remember her with love and laughter.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Rain and Frontal Boundaries in November

Rained so much in Miami today.

Heavy, crazy tropical downpours.

Purple and pink blossoms...

...on the ground in puddles.

That pregnant, fertile feel in the air....

Dark clouds, steam rising from the ground.

Oak trees laden with moisture.

Puddles reflecting the sky, palm trees and clouds above.

Wild feel to the air today here.

Rained a lot.

Is there anything going on?

Perhaps... time will tell.

Not likely but wouldn't count it out.

Nothing like a long, curved front hanging out in the Caribbean.

So stay tuned.... 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Another front is coming thru in a week or so...

Hurricane Kate...On Her Way

Hurricane Kate....

On her way following the forecast track.

I haven't updated much as my sister-in-law had a stroke.

She isn't doing well and we are at the hospital surrounding her with love...

and prayers.... 

Please check in with www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

to watch Kate's progress as she travels the Atlantic.

Pretty impressive. 

Shows the season is not over until it's over..

As is life...

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Thanks for your patience and prayers for Roberta and our family.

Ps... Roberta would make my brother a hurricane cake every year on June 1st.

She hoped it would keep the hurricanes away...

...he hoped they'd get a little closer... 

TS Kate Intensifying and Making the Turn North and Out to Sea...

Going to be a quick update on Kate. She is progressing as forecast and has made the turn to the North. There is a window of opportunity for her to become a hurricane. The NHC put it in their discussion I'm showing below. She is not expected to affect land. So far the forecast has been on the money and there is no reason to expect any surprises. The cold front is on it's way and she is catching it.

Her cone is out to sea...

Please check in with all the reliable sources for more information.

I'll update tomorrow sometime.

I'm actually catching a flight home to Miami.

My sister-in-law had a stroke and is need of prayers.

Being honest, you know me.

www.spaghettimodels.com

A good source for all your info on this so far very predictable storm.

Note she is already 60 MPH... 

...becoming Hurricane Kate briefly is possible.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Updated! Tropical Storm Kate. Forecast to Curve Away from Florida. Watch for Rip Tides. Is there another storm after Kate? Some say maybe

You can clearly see Kate's circulation here this afternoon.

Moving fast. I'll do a close up.

NW at 15 MPH

(seems faster to me...)

45 MPH Winds.

 Nothing else new.

Read on...

New picture shows it well.

The front is visible like one big red Twister.

Kate a solid white ball of tropical weather.

Looks awfully close to South Florida.

Moth attracted to the flame.

Use this link and click on the cities in the path... airports.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/tropical/gfs.php

You can see what the weather is in Nassau... 

I'll be back with a full, new update after the new discussion from the NHC.

Not expecting many changes, maybe intensity.

Keep watching.

Things moved fast this morning with TD 12.

NHC upgraded her to Kate so fast the graphics packaged lagged behind.

:)

Every one's talking about the new graphics, models with better resolutions but it's still rock and roll to me. All the talk on needing recon upgrade TD12 to Tropical Storm Kate seems silly considering its in the middle of the Bahamas with ship reports coming in from everywhere. It's being watched on slice and dice NRL and enough radar imagery to know it was a Tropical Storm. As a matter of face, before they made it a TD they were saying it had winds in excess of Tropical Storm status and yet we are officially waiting on recon.............

Come on... this was not that hard a call to make to have to wait for the A Team to come in on Monday morning and do the upgrade. I love recon, it's an awesome tool ... love those dropsondes and new radar imagery from the planes (what an idea) but really ...this was a done deal to be Kate late yesterday. Annoys me as I like truth in forecasting and discussion.

They were quite honest this morning that last night's main modeling package didn't see the small lunge west in track that brought it closer to Grand Bahama that was not seen by the main team of models ... most likely as it's a "small system" and we have been told endlessly this year small systems are not picked up well by the traditional big girl models.

Reminds me of the song.

Now let's dance to the loops.

If you remember I mentioned the fly in the ointment with the forecast..

..was the timing. 

Kate is in a hurry to get somewhere fast.

Also over warmer water closer to the Gulf Stream she finds abundant heat.

Looks better on Dvorak too...

Well not much better.

But it's a definite...entity with a name.

Since I tend to be old school...even tho I'm complaining.

Let's look at the old school Unisys loop.

Note the approach of the front...

This is a shallow system, small and still not well organized.

One reason the traditional big gun models are not doing well with it.

To understand this well you may want to read up on models.

They are not all the same.

http://stormfacts.net/models.htm

On www.spaghettimodels.com scroll down to the smaller links.

Good info there on models. Random stuff is always good :)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Models still show a healthy recurve may I add in here...

Even if Kate is rushing towards the approaching cold front.

My gosh her track is way off the track...keeps going to GB...

To quote an old friend from VA on AOL...

"Oh look it's a tropical storm!"

Well I do believe they said Hurricane but this IS a TS so...

Radar Love 

Use this link to see up to the minute data...

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=30

I've outlined the front and the weak tropical storm named Kate.

That image is from Accuweather 

Kates's gonna curve... she's got a curve coming up.

Just when she curves is the question.

Watch out for rip currents in South Florida for now...

Cute song.

Really looking for a real hula hoop song.

My daughter teaches hula hooping but I rarely put personal videos online..

She's due soon... taught hula hooping this summer while pregnant.

This hooper actually has better curves than Kate right now..

Keep watching... 

Intensity models keep going up as she inches more west than NW.

But that will change soon... in limbo waiting for that turn...

Earlier...

Just a matter of degrees.

We go with the consensus so... keep watching.

More later today. 

Stay tuned for updates as NHC nails down this storm..

..faster than you can see drop a dropsonde in me..

Oh and some people think the season does not end with Kate...

Just putting it out there...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on twitter

Ps... any typos this morning.... sorry ;)

It's a Ferris type of day today I think..

;) not sooo old school but appreciate all the data from all the right sources 

UPDATED! TD12 Forecast to be Tropical Storm Kate in the Bahamas Now WNW at

I'll update more when info from Recon is in and NHC updates to Kate.

Note current 123 Mariners Rule has it very close to OBX later in the game.

Not the storm center but the area where mariners need to remember its there.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

Good loop to keep of image below.

Biggest news is warnings edge deeper into the Bahamas...

...as TD12 is moving WNW still..

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Central Bahamas

* Northwestern Bahamas

Compare with last night .... 

TD 12 cruising up the back bone of the Bahamas.

Would think we all the ship reports in that region...

...they would have more information.

NRL has nice imagery.

But....they are waiting on recon and visible imagery?

Funktop shows what image above shows.

Strong cells in there.

Technically still a TD.

12 systems in a "slow" year. 

Not so slow... not a bumper crop year.

Strongly average if you ask me.

Tropical Depression 12 formed in the Bahamas last night.

Early model out put curves it out to sea.

There's a strong cold front pushing down and taking Kate out to sea.

TD 12 should be Tropical Kate soon enough.

Not Hurricane Kate... Tropical Storm Kate.

Last night's discussion was a bit confusing.

Only because it talks on the low shear environment and warm water.

Yet doesn't explain why they expect it not to be more than 50 MPH.

But with the movement more to the West it does bring it over warmer water.

Note models do not forecast that so logically speaking...

Catches the cold front and moves away from a US landfall.

I understand why we aren't expecting this to be Joaquin.

However the discussion doesn't really explain it.

Note it's a SMALL system and small systems...

...go up and down fast in intensity.

Due to be absorbed by other features.

I don't think the water is all that warm.

Will see tomorrow what it looks like in 1st good morning visible..

Recon is going in as well to figure out the intensity question

Also a little surprised the spoke of the Dvorak.

Personally I didn't think she looks that good on Dvorak.

Again remember small systems flare up fast.

And, go poof fast. Then flare up again.

Let's see what it's like in the morning light.

Official cone.

Note the blue colors in Bahamas...

Wind probs show San Salvador in it.. as a few places are...

Worth reminding you that these are the same places in recovery from Joaquin.

Even moderately strong weather is a set back.

Note earlier I mentioned Jim Williams had San Salvador up on his count down.

Compare and contrast with this morning.

Grand Bahamas was suddenly added into the mix when TD12 Edged West.

This morning. 

Last night not there before it turned WNW.

Will turn NE eventually.

Let's look at some loops.

Mike on www.spaghettimodels.com has a variety of loops.

I'm not super impressed with the cold front for one.. 

Moved thru today and backing up tomorrow.

Small cyclone remember that.

You can see the drama here.

Pushed NW by the big bad high behind it.

The front approaches and wants to grab it and take it NE.

I wouldn't call this the best environment.

Worth remembering originally this wasn't supposed to form yet.

It's moving fast ahead of the original schedule.

November.

There is the smallest wrinkle tonight in the forecast.

One model breaks with the pack and brings it near Cane strength.

All take it away from the US and out to sea.

And a bit of a warning with this particular cyclone ;)

Be careful what you put into search parameters.

Put in "models Kate" and you get this....

Kate. Let's wait and see if it's Kate in the morning light.

I've drawn a few blue arrows onto Spaghetti Models.

1. Note there are already lots of warnings off shore currently.

2. Note the rain that is moving N with the front..hmnn.

Let's look at a loop that shows this better.

It's not going out to sea just yet.

Eventually but everything is timing with November cyclones.

Tonight it's not much to worry on ...

...unless you live in the part of the Bahamas already devastated from Joaquin..

After the low pressure region moves NE along the coast..

A high pressure is supposed to dig in.... 

Nice.. haven't see blue skies and sunshine for days in Carolina.

Bring it on!

Take it out to sea!

Let me see...

Good link to use to view Bahamas weather conditions.

Good in general ..

http://www.hurricanecity.com/cams/bahamascams.htm

I'll be back with more info after we see morning light and . . .

. . . get that recon data in to see just what is going on with TD 12...

Otherwise known as Tropical Storm Kate.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps I was gonna go to sleep early.

Yet here I am writing about Kate....

As sure as your name's Kate you put me here...