Shark Attacks. Warm Water Close to Shore. Small spin off SE Coast. Models Aren't Biting..the Sharks are.....

UPDATE WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER SHARK ATTACK

7TH in 3 WEEKS

OCRACOKE ATTACK

7 FOOT GRAY SHARK

VS

Man in Late 60s

Explain why people think they are special?

Why they think a shark won't bite them?

This is a serious issue with July 4th Holiday Weekend here.

Will update the blog on the tropics and shark attacks later today!

Otherwise please continue reading it's all relevant.

Easy... Swim in the pool.

Walk on the beach.

Enjoy the beach but stay out of the water!

Weather update below.

Is the "Bahama Blob" as Mike calls it on Facebook a problem? No, not really.
Also worth watching flare up of convection in GOM near Mexico.

Is it worth watching? Sure, got nothing else to watch. Plus, it's a pattern. If the flip between extreme heat and summer time cold fronts continue something will form there again as Ana did back in May.

The water is warm close in to shore. When the water heats up the fish move around just like people do. It's that simple. "Oh my gosh Mollie, it's so hot pack up the car we are going to the beach!!" When water heats up off of the coast of South America the tuna take a hike, when water heats up close to shore along the US... the fish move with the water.

There have been way too many shark attacks off the coast of the Carolinas.

At this point I wish there was a small tropical storm to scare people away.

The local media here barely covers it anymore.

Luckily TWC is playing it up.

TWC - The Weather Channel

not TWC Time Warner Cable Local Weather/News

Vague details mentioned by the media...

One person said "not to swim near piers" . . .

You see the shark come for the fisherman's bait...

Oh, okay...right.

Yes, they may be coming for the bait.

But there aren't always so many shark in the sea in knee deep water.

A Google search shows it is a big problem.

Note National Media

3 shark attacks mentioned.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/29

/north-carolina-shark-attack_n_7689452.html

Let me highligh this like it's storm discussion

Local Media.

Nothing. Nada. Zip.

Discussion on a raccoon with rabies.

Note a fox recently attacked people in Raleigh with rabies..

Flag discussion.

A toll road article

Stars in the sky..

Nothing on shark attacks at the beach...

....going into the biggest beach holiday weekend of the summer.

Typical. Miami doesn't like to mention sharks either.. 

But it's a big problem.

You want to be shark smart? Stay out of the water!

I don't want to sound like Sam Kinison but . . .

"Stay out of the water!"

Swim in a pool.

Walk along the beach.

Sit on the beach

Build sandcastles on the sand.

(by the way if you get the commercial

about what's in some one's fridge...

...so so so true..)

But if some nice person tries to lure you into the water..

Tell them "NO!" 

As a Miami girl I can truly say...

..that is what POOLS are made for ... 

Stay out of the danger zone...

Miami Beach kids grow up and play in pools.

If they don't have one...

....they go over and sneak into one..

Let's do this with pictures... 

https://twitter.com/blockade_runner

https://twitter.com/EdenRocMB

(one of my all time favorite hotels...)

CAROLINA BEACHES

This is a no brainer................

Let's bring this back to weather... 

Note the anomaly.

Hotter than normal.

And, add to this discussion on sharks. As long as we have cold fronts dropping down and stalling out in warm tropical waters we have the possibility of something developing. Right now the models are not biting, but the sharks are...so remember that when you decide to take a trip to the beach if you live in NC or SC this holiday weekend. Oh and use sunscreen....

Also, while having fun at the beach this weekend (unless you are up in the mountains some where) be careful of lightning. If the sharks don't get you, the thunder bolts might. Great new link up on www.spaghettimodels.com

Close up view off SE Coast

Oh and there's a reason they call them Tampa Bay Lightning..

Enjoy your holiday weekend.

Nothing tropical happening just yet.

About 10 days to 2 weeks would be a conservative guess.

As for me I'll be watching the loops off of the SE 

3 things to note.

1. The ITZ is not shut down despite SAL present in the area.

2. Area off of the SE coast.. 

3. Area in the BOC

Keep watching, 

Besos Bobbi

Ps.....with a strong high anything that develops goes inland.

Reality WXR Show? Jim Williams Blog Up on Hurricane City. What Makes a Real Meteorologist? Trust, Getting It Right!

In the absence of any real tropical weather.

This is what weather people are talking about today.

Shame its not a real show on weather.

A well written sitcom or drama.

A forensic meteorology show.

A new one for CSI... 

There is such a thing as forensic meteorology.

There's an idea for a real drama!

No.... it's another Reality TV Show.

Mark Burnett, creator of reality TV shows that are not very real...

.... has a new show.

(big surprise right?)

As we are all tired of Dancing with the Stars 

And people stuck in a jungle somewhere...

(ratings are down)

He has turned to the wonderful world of weather.

I'm sure many will watch.

Many will love it.

Many will think it's stupid.

Personally I'm not a big fan of Reality TV.

For me it's not very real or entertaining.

Real life is entertaining. 

Carrie Underwood is entertaining.

Glad there was American Idol on that count.

Maybe it will inspire kids to be meteorologists?

Maybe it make weather people cool again like Twister did back when...

Or maybe most of America will be on NEXTFLIX

Millennials are not watching trust me...

There are more Millennials than Baby Boomers..

Demographically this is for old timers.

Old timers watch The Weather Channel

(Sorry Jim & Dave it's true...)

Watch the commercials.. find the demographics.

You know I'm a bit surprised TWC doesn't show movies 

or

Truth is I hope it inspires kids to grow up and be REAL weather people.

Amateur, hobbyists, professionals on air or off...

With one of the judges being Barberie...

I doubt knowledge of weather is going to be high up on the qualifications.

Hey it's not gonna be Chorus Line.

Only time will tell ...

More afraid it's gonna be a matter of  matter of this...

Note not my usual video but explains it well

Despite the honest language..

Got to be honest... 

2 days before Hurricane Andrew.

1992

Channel 7 I believe had this beautiful weather girl.

Her hair was always perfect.

Beautiful.

She wasn't Bryan Norcross... 

Every time they went to her she was staring in abject horror ...

...at the satellite loop.

The loop next to her kept showing Andrew bearing down on Miami.

She could barely speak.

She looked like a deer stuck in the headlights.

You know what?

No one remembers her... 

She's somewhere I'm sure.

Her hair looked perfect but she could not get the words out.

Everyone remembers Bryan Norcross.

He's not exactly Mister Personality.

(sorry but true)

He's exacting, a perfectionist, serious and loves getting it right.

That is what you need in a weather person

You know who inspires me?

Jim Williams from Hurricane City.

He has a blog now on his site. 

Well written look into a real weather person.

A true meteorologist, be it amateur or professional.

He spends more time doing weather than many mets I know.

He has a blog. A good one.

http://hurricanecity.com/blogs/2015/06/jim-williams-on-atlantic-hurricane-tracking/

I'll write on this more another day.

I just want to put it out there.

To be a good meteorologist you have to get it right.

Jim gets it right often.

You have to be able to talk and walk when a Cat 5 is on the map.

Bryan can talk... we learned that in 1992...

Nice to look good and have personality.

Nice to have a degree.

Many on air Mets get a degree online .. by the way.

Many meteorologists work for private industry and the government.

No one judges them based on their boots.

That said I think I have those white boots.

I studied meteorology.

My major was International Relations.

My second major was English.

I graduated with honors.

I was offered a job with the CIA.

Wasn't really for me... 

I got a job writing about International Relations.

Doing political analysis.

Wrote a lot of press releases... 

Weather affects International Relations.

It affects everything.

You going to drive to the beach today or stay inside doing laundry?

Check your weather app... I guess.

Oh... funny.

In a world where the news and weather are being replaced by Apps...

They are doing a reality TV show on getting a job on air.

In truth... my kids get their weather from APPS.

Or they Whatsapp me.. 

Something to think on..

Besos Bobbi

Ps... TBS ..HA what a blast from the past.

Used to watch that when I lived in LA in the 80s...

SAL and Colorful Sunsets in the Tropics. Quiet Tropics. Bonnie Schneider TWC Working with Weather

BOB DYLAN - Blowing in the wind (1971) - YouTube by Alexis_Querales

If you are wondering what is blowing in the tropical wind.

It's name is SAL.

Those little white clouds you see moving west are African Dust

And, it makes the sunsets red... like the dust from Africa

As someone who has lived in Key West

I can tell you....

....it doesn't always look like that!

This is the bulk of it:

This is a good explanation, simply put.

SAL colors the sunset.

You can find these sites on the bottom left at 

www.spaghettimodels.com

Yes, African Dust can inhibit tropical development.

Dries out the atmosphere.

Worth noting:

Later in the season tropical systems will go where the dust went.

Often enough so watch it's movements.

End Game 

The King of this Hurricane Season may be EL NINO

But the Prince of this Hurricane Season may be SAL

And it will be a while before Old Bob is singing Hurricane...

Besos Bobbi

Ps. Short term the East Coast is set for more rocky weather

http://www.weather.com/storms/tornado/news/severe-weather-tracker-page

And supposedly a cool front will break the heat dome in the SE

http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/record-west-heat-wave-northwest-great-basin-latejun2015

Women working in meteorology for today 

She seems to enjoy what she does.

Good for her!

Derecho and Tropical Waves

2 things here worth noting.

Derecho in the Midwest moving ESE

Tropical Wave flaring up in the islands.

Putting the above in motion . . .

The water vapor shows that the wave is on the dirty side of an ULL.

This is the wave I've been watching for a while now.

See the NHC watches even when there is no public discussion.

It's there in the Tropical Atlantic Discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/221802_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Note going to the San Juan Tropical Discussion

Note the above discussion talks on WAVES.

The lead wave is firing up on the dirty side of said ULL.

Then...after SAL makes the sunsets pretty.

The next tropical wave moves in..

The models do not speak on tropical development.

The GFS "suggests" ... some instability.

Some tropical rain.

Note the Atlantic High looks like Carmen Miranda on over drive.

Nothing much is forecast to happen here.

Things can change.

But for now this is about the ULL moving west...

The tropical wave following the ULL

This ballet plays out every week in the tropics in June and July.

Key West Forecast Discussion

 My concerns here in the tropics are that these waves keep coming. Tropical waves ride the same air flow patterns as the SAL that moves west coloring the sunset and creating breathing problems. A developed tropical system such as a hurricane is not caught up in the low trade winds. But, as long a you have waves this viable to make it from Africa to the Caribbean, you have to keep looking East wondering what else could happen later in the season. El Nino or not.... if the water gets hot, the MJO weighs in and there is a tropical wave with a low pressure system attached we could have a problem.

As for the derecho. It's not a tropical feature but its one heck of a weather maker.

Note the derecho is a stronger system than the much talked about remnants of Tropical Storm Bill.

The derecho is moving ESE and has already caused damage across many states with winds approaching 90 mph moving faster than a speeding bullet.

I'm wondering what July 4th will bring...

Meanwhile the Miami kids are in NC dealing with a heat wave ... 

"Feels like 103" in Fayetteville today...

Heading south soon again.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/22/a-powerful-derecho-is-blasting-across-the-midwest-with-hurricane-force-winds/

If you live in the path of the derecho pay attention to changing weather!

http://www.weather.gov/

You can see both features on the loop above.

Keep watching.

Summer weather of any kind can be strong.

Tropical or otherwise.

Besos Bobbi

Ps Definition of "derecho" for Dave...

Cape Verde Waves. Watching Strong CV Waves Moving West ... While Bill Travels East.

What amazes me is that this Cape Verde Wave is even here ....in the Atlantic. Stage Right.

1. It's too early to be that far north where they need to be to develop.
2. There is a strong amount of SAL in the atmosphere.
3. The water is not that warm...
4. It's way too soon.
5. El Nino is on the clock...

And, yet there is an impressive signature with this wave. Will it develop? Have you seen any models saying it will? I ask because if there was model support every meteorologist worth their Twitter Handle would be all over it. Truth is everyone is watching it humorously thinking "what the heck is it doing there?" and then patting them self on the shoulder reminding them self.. "there is no model support" as they go back to their graphs of El Nino and place their bets if this will be a moderate or strong El Nino. Others refuse to stop watching Tropical Depression Bill as he sits and spins landlocked. There's also a Mesoscale that will cause possibly more damage than Bill, but every one's watching Bill to see if he makes it to "seafall" intact.

We are in my mind too model drive sometimes. We don't appreciate the beauty and wonder of the meteorological world, because we hear there is no model support and we turn it off like yesterday's news. In truth, I love the fact that models give us a heads up on tropical development but I'm saddened that many don't even watch the satellite loops anymore. Well, they do.. IF it has model support. If it's not being Tweeted about, it's not relevant.

What I find interesting is not what we talk about but what we don't talk about. What we ignore.

There are patterns in the tropics that are always worth watching in any given year.

I have quite a few meteorolgically impressive friends who worry about development this year despite all the negative media press that the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Note, they have been skeptical before the A storm formed and before the B storm formed. Before the A and B storm made landfall.

Sometimes life is not about quantity but quality. Sometimes the big one occurs in quiet years.

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane. Referred to by NOAA has the "Forgotten Hurricane"

(I don't make this stuff up...)

For years newspapers have been writing about Tampa Bay's big one..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/1921/1921_hur_90th_anniversary.pdf

List of links on that 1921 Hurricane and Tampa Bay

http://www.sptimes.com/2002/webspecials02/andrew/day4/story1.shtml

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/90-years-after-1921-hurricane-bay-area-officials-fear-direct-hit/1169992

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/tampa.htm

1921 not a "busy" season.

But, a memorable one.

Sometimes the worse case scenario happens

You think it never will... but it happens.

I worry on years when waves should not be there.

But, they are there.

Luckily we have models now days.

We know more these days.

Right now it's June too soon.

Strong shear.

Gale Centers in the Caribbean.

If these waves keep coming..

At some point...

We could have a problem.

That's a strong ITCZ

I've seen it vacant in some El Nino Years

Why is that wave there?

Why is there a moderate surge of convection...

Despite SAL

I understand it's chances are next to nothing.

My question is........

How did it get that far?

Why is it still alive?

So...........

I wonder why the waves coming off of Africa are so viable this year?

It's very dry. But it's been very warm.

They are well spaced.

They are well formed.

Only takes one to get through... 

Quality not quantity.

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=nhc%20hurricane%20preparedness

Not many people will mention the obvious.

I do. Remember I mentioned it here.

Just watching....

Besos Bobbi 

Ps. There is also convection again down near the Yucatan

And a wild spinning ULL North of PR.

Bill Does Oklahoma....

Look at Bill... front and center there over Oklahoma.

I've highlighted in yellow

1) cyclonic circulation of Bill

2) a westbound tropical wave in the Central Atlantic

3) Some tropical showers in BOC & SW Carib

Mainly today it's all about the remnants of Bill.

Or as the NHC is calling it Tropical Depression Bill

www.koco.com is one of the best Oklahoma sites when weather is happening.

Usually KOCO is where I go for Twister information.

Today, Oklahoma is dealing with Bill.

Which makes me wonder...

How many states have seen Tropical Weather 

Hurricanes

Tropical Storms

Tropical Depressions

Organized Remnants

There's a map going around Facebook today...

Now that we know I'm apparently Greek from my feet...

We have moved on to places we've been.

I have a big family. 

It's like a reality TV show

Online

Whatsapp

New York Times

Washington Post

(kidding with the last two haha...not really)

Anyway............

This is my map.

I'm a Deep South Girl who has lived in LA.

Can you say I-10.

Oh WAIT.....I've been to Nevada........

Anyway.....

With Bill's trek north I'm wondering... 

What states have been directly impacted by tropical weather?

I taught for Chabad in Minnesota for 2 summers.

And, my son lived in Postville, Iowa

He moved to Seattle...

Obviously if not for him 

I'd never leave the South and I-95

But, I've been to Hurricane Country.

That's why I write about it.

Write about what you know...

Right?

Bill is in Oklahoma today.

Where's Bill headed?

I guess I'll have the song Oklahoma stuck in my brain today...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... One Crazy storm in NC last night.. 

Lightning, thunder, heavy rain

Summer

Hurricane Season

Connect the dots...