No Circulation Found, I Am Key West Bound..

if'n all goes well and it better go well cause really want to go this weekend

will see after shabbos

that wave is very very very messy and long, looks like a horizontal frontal trough
or open wave but am sure something is there somewhere..hiding

my gut guess.. is it will wander west, wnw through the carib basin and flare up.. look good.. fall apart... and when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico it will become a storm.. of sizeable means.. if it does develop

the wave behind it or the wave's behind sort of... well.. it could develop into something if it seperates and is cut free and that is the part that looked like it had circulation yesterday

other than that.. will see..

there is a nice wave visible on visible twisting and crusing along at a lower lat

will see

its a will see wait and see weekend

all is well
going to my sister in laws for shabbos dinner with the one child home

relaxing tomorrow

and going to Key West on Sunday for the day.. night..

please put all holds on tropical development until tuesday
no warnings, no watches

and may everyone stay well..healthy

copasetic?

come on.. want to take my youngest son (who loves key west..someone brainwashed him) down there for the night for his birthday present.. promised him a vacation and want to make the little cutie pie happy

not to mention me :)

sigh sigh sigh

and want to write on the bus all the way down and back
need to get some offline writing in

take care, stay well .. everyone relax

no tropical development until i get back
its an order!

good shabbos

The Mind of Hurricane Trackers

Trying to make reason of hurricane season. To understand, control and accept what is unraveling before our eyes.

Why do people track? Watch? Chase?

Some people say we are not normal.. sort of like that Rusty character who was so funny in Twister..the one who kept talking about the Suck Zone or something funny. Believe he was in Leap of Faith too .. should check www.imdb.com but too late in the day for me to check anything but a water vapor loop.

Why?

Some love maps.. like me. Nothing more fun than a hurricane map. You get to draw on it, think about it. Though in 97 I drew someone's astrological chart on a hurricane map because well..there was nothing to track and had so many of them. Told them that their Venus was in the Bermuda Triangle. Smiling. Gosh those were fun days, we were so nuts. Poof.. gone.

So.. why?

Someone online said it was in their blood. I didn't ask if their father or mother was a forecaster but almost did. Could it be genetic? Both my baby brothers became trackers.. then again, was that genes or nurture.. as in big sister Bobbi's nurturing them?

Superman comic books and the 60s... Lex Luthor always trying to change the weather and take over the world. All those disaster movies with special effects and lightning?

The Wizard of Oz... whoosh up into the suck zone of the Twister.. the Professor would have told Dorothy that and he would have been arrested for soliciting a minor for sex most likely or at least... contributing to the destruction of some poor little girl's mind. Suck Zone indeed.

Weather is sexy. It's filled with so many allusions, illusions, references to sexual things. Twisters are phallic. Haven't you heard that one? If you dream of a twister it is supposed to mean either you fear your life is out of control or your sex life is.. psychology 101. Rain is sexual. Have had more men talk to me about rain than any woman who ever noticed it did much but make your hair soft. Heat..hot summer night and Body Heat..who can forget that scene in that movie? Every soap opera on tv has shown some famous super couple who broke up years before locked up lost in the woods in a blinding blizzard finding their heart again and coming back together ...

Fear factor? People are afraid of storms, blizzards, ice storms, thunderstorms.. they like to be in control and try to know when they will hit.

We have been accused of all wanting cheap thrills.. thrills=sex again see?

We want disaster... we crave being pushed to the wall, standing at the shore facing the monster storm, taking pictures, measuring winds.. having the waves grab at us and half drown us.. No, I don't think so. But, it is fun.. I'll tell you that.

I really don't think we want disaster and yet many of us are mesmerized by the wild, strong, intense effects of nature on the surface of the earth. To see a day start out gentle, soft blue skies, sun out cheerfully and suddenly a dark, purple-black line of thunderstorms appear in the northwest sky. The temperature drops. Things fall off the tree onto the roof of the house. Leaves go flying. Nothing in the world like watching a front race through Miami on a warm day in the winter... crash, bam.. thank you maam.. its gone, leaving behind strong winds out of the NW that are suddenly, magically cold as if God turned the AC on. Beautiful. Stunning.

I can't say why we do what we do but we do.

And, as Dr. Gray has said.. either you are or you aren't a tropical weather lover. Got the quote somewhere.. two types of people in the world and I know which kind I am.

What I don't understand is why others aren't like that?

How can they go about their day blind to the wonders and mysteries of the planet. They don't notice a beautiful sunset.. the sun is just going down, does it every day they say. They don't pay attention or care about a lunar eclipse. They don't enjoy the sound of the rain and rush to shut the windows even when the rain isn't coming in that window. They grimmace when it pours instead of staring at it magically. They don't have any curiousity to feel what it feels like when a storm is passing by offshore and have no need to drive out to the beach and watch the waves. They don't stand on their front porch staring out at a thunderstorm.

I think we are all a little quirky, even those of us who look staid and boring. Many meteorologists are very boring looking.. on the surface. Math majors even. They don't all run around in flowered shirts or wear baseball caps. They look to many like pencil pushers..though I do think that is changing. They are of all color, sexes, religions.. many were not ever even in the Navy or Air Force even. Just plain old folk in love with the weather, a good head for math and who studied it in college.

But..we are all a little crazy in our own ways.

I've found most to be.. all of these things that seem to contradict.

Serious..Funny
Skepitcal.. Spiritual
Left brain statistical, right brain emotional
Intense.. calm

Like the weather.. we change a lot in ways. Like the water and the waves.. we get churned up high, go crashing down again.

We love when a forecast is blown and a rule broken. Does that make us rebellious too?

Gianmarc posted this today online at hurricanecity.com .. great line.. loved it. Because I know exactly what they mean.

"Posted by Gianmarc on 7/28/2005, 9:20 am, in reply to "Re: sst in the
northern gulf <70383.html>"
User logged in as: Gianmarc
Excellent points, Tim. I am reminded of the January, 1995 "hurricane" over
the Mediterranean sea that achieved 80 kt winds and a plainly visible
CDO/eye on satellite imagery over 65 degree waters. I think Canetrakker
posted something about that storm recently, too. I just LOVE it when these
storms throw grenades at the rule book."

Maybe that says it best in ways how we look at the world.. we study climo and then we laugh like kids when climo is thrown out the window.

We are a fun lot.

I have a friend who I ..........ummmmmmmmmmm care about a lot. A nutty friend. I was walking down the block one day late at night coming home from someone's house and they were visiting in town for a few days. There was a full moon. They were standing in the middle of the street, staring up at the moon with this magical look of wonder. As if they were trying to command the full moon to stay a little longer. I never told them. Imagine, me not tell someone something? :) Same look they had on their face when we were at the beach a few nights later and staring out at the waves, the almost full moon still shining down on the waves, the wind blowing. They were in heaven.

Why?

Go ask birds why they fly or fish why they swim... they won't be able to tell you either.

RedSox win :)

Hey... best all out thing that happened today!

Between low tolerance all day at the reference desk and less tolerance in the children's room. Why do mothers think that a 17 month old, baby wants to sit in the library and watch the mother try and play supermommy and read fairy tales while the child/baby wants to go to sleep for an afternoon nap. I had kids. Lots of kids. I wouldn't subject people to that sort of non-stop crying from a baby who is not ready to sit in a library. If you want to make your child literate at that age .. do it in your own backyard.. den, porch.. anywhere but in public. Then I went across the street to the chinese restaurant to try and stay on my diet (i did) and some mother was there, big..enourmous mother smoking outside while her friend tried to control her very enourmous and loud little children. And, I thought.. Leah Adler was soooo smart when she did that thing in the Milky Way. "No, I'm sorry. We don't have any high chairs. You could get a babysitter next time." Oh you go Leah.. really. So, smart. I mean we are not talking a fast food place, and when the kids get wild you take the food home and tell them they can't go out unless they behave. Ever see Cat On A Hot Tin Roof? Second time today I thought of that movie.. Well, these children were the empitomy of no-neck monsters.

So much for trying to relax.

Found something online that bothered me. Upset me.. I never learn. Never, ever, never learn. Cannot stop typing in the stupid name into a search when searching for someone something. How many times can you be hit in the head with the same thought "No, Bobbi.. don't do it!" No words.

Wanted some rain. Got hit on the head by a few rain drops. One little cloud over me.. on my way to the chinese restaurant. Tomorrow I'll hide better at the Argentinian place. If I go. Oh, I'll go. Not ready to run away yet. soon..

Anyway.. made it through my day. The one who isn't you know who made me smile and asked me twice if I was okay, called me "beautiful" and told me to watch those waves out there.. even though Franklin is going away they might be a problem. Smile. Grin. Such simple pleasures in life. Don't understand it. Don't want to know but know he's alive.. which is damn nice lol and floats my boat. Me and My Shadow, not alone and not feeling blue. Sort of like a southern, gothic plotline there but well.. shhhh.

Then I left. I went home early. Just a bit early. Got in bed, watched the Redsox game. All by myself. God I love the Redsox. Someone, somewhere is chuckling their head off.. but it's true. They won. They have to drag it out to that last minute, the drama.. the pain.. the worry..they praying.. the impossible to protect your heart cause your heart is in your stomach somewhere ..where it's not supposed to be.

Miami drama... Arthur Teele.. a city commissioner of sorts and local political figure walked into the lobby of the Miami Herald, forever assuring himself a place in the trivial hall of fame in this banana republic called Miami and shot himself in the head. Worked his way up through the ranks over the years and in the last few years has been involved in sketchy sort of maybe illegal, maybe not, maybe just the way things work in a city like this... problem. Lost his temper with a cop, it was seen on TV. Lost his temper with the reporters. Heard people already bitching its a racial thing. God, do I hate people who play the race card (or religion) card on everything. He was a powerful, important man and running in circles where things happen and when your life starts to fall apart sometimes you don't have the best coping skills. And, truth is.. the man did it his way. Brought the story to the Herald. Didn't want to spend his life in jail. Didn't want to have people forever talking about possible convictions and his fall from the dizzying heights of the often corrupt city council and commission so he took his life and his fame in his own hands and now he will forever be remembered as the man who walked into the Herald Building and killed himself. Years from now, tour guides will walk past the spot where he chose to take his life and talk about how he killed himself right *THERE* and he will be remembered as a black activist in a time in Miami when there were few politically important blacks. A vietnam vet. A man who loved his wife. Worked and fought for his community. May or may not have done some improper things.. who knew a politician do something improper? he had simply lost control of his ability to control life the way he wanted so he chose to control his death. Bottom line. That is the truth. Should email Jay in Greece, he'd be interested.

Life isn't about being black or white or shades of red or gray. It's not about being from Venus or Mars..God I HATE that book. Remember looking through it in Sharon's car years back and thinking "ewwww this is so stupid." Have known more boyfriends who cried through sad movies than I ever did. I think men and women are different in one or two ways. And, seems no matter how much the world tries to argue otherwise.. size does matter somewhere to someone. I have breasts. They have a penis. Women think about sex almost as often as men. Takes longer for us to go the bathroom and look through our purse or we'd be thinking about it the same time. And, if I forget for a minute..there is always the mid-day text message to remind me. lol. Not all men love football, not all women hate it. As for religion.. most people think theirs is best. Believe Native American traditions though teach the belief of respecting other people's traditions. Probably because most white men never did respect theirs when they got to this side of the Atlantic. Either way.. you would think we would respect the culture and legends of the people who were here first. But, well.. Americans are so ethnocentric. God Love Them!!! lol

In a mood.

What can I say?

Watched about 5 minute of the end of Smallville when Chloe says to Clark something about Hurricane Lucy and jokes about geeks and stalkers. Stared. No words. He really does look so much like clark with those brooding, puppy dog, playful eyes was enough to make me want to cry the second time today about same two stupid people.

But.. watched the Tropical Update, pushed Clark from the recesses of my brain (let him go argue with the snowqueen) and thought on how Lyons was suggesting that the next organized Atlantic storms will threaten the Florida Peninsular.

I was going to go to Key West on Sunday. Got news for you. May go come hell or high water .. I don't care.

So... that is what occupies my brain while waiting for one of those waves to pop. Have to focus on them...Clark made me promise. Okay, maybe he didn't stay around long enough but asked me to watch them. I am watching them. I hate him. I can watch and hate at the same time.

I'm very sleepy now. I'm going to go to bed.

I love Cat On A Hot Tin Roof. One of the best plays ever written. Ever. Honest look inside the mind and souls of men/women and what makes us all tick. Brick, great name. Cat, even better. No neck monsters... what a line. What a mind that man had.

As for the whole dialect discussion. Tell the lost, lonely linquist he can go cuddle up with the snow queen in his ice palace and stop playing with Lois's mind. Lex is the one obsessed with weather. Think about it. All those plots about controlling weather. The only one who really understood if you could control weather you could control your economy, your future.. everything. It's all about weather.

Red Sox won! We win! Going to go to bed.

Let the SuperKay family try and control the world. Somewhere they will have to deal with Lex. Reverand Ron can try and pray for their souls. Lord knows someone should.

I'm too tired.

I'll watch the waves. I'll blow hard.
You pray for everyone's soul.

Love Bobbi.. Lois.. Amy.. whoever you want me to be tonight.

One of those days..........

Can't seem to function. Franklin is boring... sort of cute in an annoying way (got to give it to him, hangs in) but boring.

Seeing a beautiful, razor thin cold front slide eastward.

I miss my old boss/friend Zee who isn't here anymore.

Hazy outside but is that dust or just clouds?

3 Waves in the Tropics.. beautiful waves. Models show them making it across the ocean, or at least one or two.

I need a new bra.. hate trying on bras.. can't buy them without trying them on.

Restless. Would go away tomorrow with my youngest but he has some big trip in Camp that is BIG. Today he is at Dolphin Training Camp. :( wish I was there.. Like the new barefoot Ricky Williams.

Anyway, meandering my way through the day. This is the best I can do to muster a post.

Sorry... just one of those days.

Need to get away, sooner rather than later.

Bobbi

REDSOX WON...10th inning ... 2 new invests..

Franklin is intensifying despite all odds..
ok Beven, Ok... slowly..

Three waves... two invests... models show path headed right for caribbean...wnw...

Great game.. watched end of it on yahoo live (whats a miami girl to do) with friend online, exciting, very.. steve, steven.. even steven, redsox win...

WOW they won! So cool, so hot.. hot hot hot..

Did you know I have official tee shirts? And, that tank top they sent me was a big, tall guys tank top now do you know what I look like it a shirt like that? Need a redsox bra to wear with it to show underneath... okay so I sleep it in but love the big red one with sleeves... and hats.. have 3 hats.. two they sent, one pink one i bought. hey im a girl.. am allowed a pink one. Big oversized red shirt, love it.. may sleep in it tonight.

I'm tired.

Long day... long, long day... loop de loop de loop

How many storm days are we going on NOW Dr. Gray????

some people are just so nuts these days its enticing, exciting, compelling and contagious

nite.. and think my friend is going to get his cape verde storms this year
yup, yep.. uh huh.. mr. wonderful gets his storms.. cape verde
so happy for him

yes that reporter is right, jim and i are a rare breed inded :)

nite, go sox!

New Model's show some formation possible from AFRICAN WAVE TRAIN

yup... so true. mind you they are not the most popular models but i think a trend is starting. even in the better ones (means the ones accurate this last month or so) you can see systems riding up along the bottom of the high.

also.... watch the tail of Franklin, sort of like a bad sequel messy atlantic systems have been known to spawn messier ones down at the bottom of their tail... that tail is getting better and more pronounced as Franklin begins to fall apart, which is wierd... should be the other way around. tail could turn into a trof, storms form at the end of trofs..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

model shows development of waves...

This looks interesting
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005072612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005072600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

From www.hurricanecity.com's message board... a great, really great post by Doorman.

Note my comments below... great post, giving credit with credit is due (think he watches me on a webcam or something, how would he know that??)

Posted by Doorman on 7/26/2005, 3:13 pm
User logged in as: Doorman

Just for fun Quiz......
1- Do you enjoy listening to the computer generated voice of the NOAA radio weather station?

2-Off the top of your head
can you name 5 or more the
forecasters on TWC?
(first and last names)

3-Know what the word Diurnal means?

4-have more than (4) links to weather sites
in your Favorites list?

5-Looked at a Satellite picture of Africa
in the past 5 days?

6- Feel down in the dumps, when there is
no action in the Atlantic or Carribean??

7-if you see or hear the word Galveston
or the year 1938 you imeadiatley think
Hurricane?

8- Saved a weather picture for your
Desktop or Screen saver?

9-Let yourself get soaking wet (on purpose)
in a rainstorm?

10-Upset if you have trouble getting online to visit your friends at
Hurricane City?

WARNING: No score for this test
if you are reading this;
Congratulations my friend
YOU ARE A WEATHER JUNKIE!!!!!!

*excuse typos*


Bobbi's response here... yes I love the weather radio, calms me. Know the name of almost all of the forecasters though some evil weather man superhero round here made me mess up Avila's name.. I keep thinking it's Lex for some reason lol. Shhh.

Did forget the 38 one but will have to try and remember.. it almost took Rhode Island out, sort of a Dream Cane for me :P

Anyway... I always play in the rain. Sometimes I dance...sort of move my arms out, spin a bit and well.. it is a simple enough joy that hurts no one else (right?) I feel down in the dumps when no one is posting.. been a great season of posts this year. Last night I started to lose it.. was quiet, stupid, nothing going on..how long can we dissect Franklin but luckily a weather friend of mine called me up and we talked and well.. felt much better ;) hot summer nights indeed

summer, in the city...

anyways... that's about it for now.. rained earlier, waiting to see if the dust in the atmosphere tonight brings sunsets nice enough to take photos or just wait until tomorrow

Bobbi


Note to Bobbi.. read this later, send to Chayale :)
http://www4.wittenberg.edu/academics/engl/GrammarDumb/Flannery.html

Lift Off.. beautiful. Franklin who?

Beautiful lift off of the space shuttle this morning.

Put everything else on hold, fiddled with some things in my room. Listened to Los Lonely Boys or whatever they are called.. like them. Watched the space shuttle take off. Beautiful.

A child of the 60s who never gets used to watching them fly into the sky.

Talked to a friend this morning. Nice coversation, inspirational. Well, a few friends.

Daughter called in from some park.. away at camp and found a cell phone. Had another daughter find phones in Poland last year easier than they are letting those campers call home.

Warm day.
Franklin going away?
Hmmmmnnnn who knows.

Might try and take pics tonight of the sunset.. might go away.
Never know.

In a spontaneously combustible mood these days.. so hang on

Bobbi
ps.. oh a new invest is up on the NRL site.. a bit high but hey...it's out there coughing from the dust but still headed west north west.. worth watching.

Where is my brain today? Lost looping with Franklin?

Well I mean he seems to be wandering aimlessly about pissing off weather forecasters who you get the feeling want to do him in sooner rather than later.. if they could hire a hit man.. they would. Unfortunately, life doesn't work like that and they had to deal with reports from recon that he was stronger not weaker. Haha, jokes on them huh? Well.. every season needs one.. right?

Some would say what do you expect from a mercury retrograde?
maybe he can stay out there for 3 weeks..wandering in circles

nah.. weak currents and nothing else.. and a strong high that won't let franklin go north

responsibilities and practicalities and financial obligations stop me from going south..

or I SWEAR I would grab a few thin skirts, some tank tops.. tee shirts (v neck of course), notebooks to write in and get on the first bus out of town and go all the way down ... down.. to Key West.. where I would wander and write, wander up and down Whitehead Street. Maybe go see Paula who owns great, great grandma's house.. stare up at the few remaining poincianna blossoms on the tree, breathe key west air.. look at the bougenvilla across the street.. fragrant frangipangi blossoms in all colors..

wander down through some streets i need to wander
sit curled up in a chair in the key west library, read.. read...
go over to faustos... breathe the cold air.. have some rainforest coffee from the little machine in the back that expects you to have quarters with you always..

write.. write..
oh i need to be in key west and write
and breathe
and never go home, make key west home

i dont need to see the sun go down, id rather see it come up
those wild rays that emanate eminate.. emememeante from behind the morning clouds

wonder who really killed francisco, such a beautiful man
who really killed jaime on the beach
old mysteries not forgotten
need to be resolved in my mind

wait on White Street Pier for a shower to roll in.. breeze blowing..
funnel clouds forming into waterspouts out on the water

i can send in posts from the internet cafe ...

why am i here today?

or stop along the way?
http://www.edgewaterlodge.com/

nice.. so nice

where is the man who can share that with me?
where is the storm that can take it away??

back to St. Marys.. thank you St. Marys for saving great, great grandma
so I could be here today

hello Franklin.. are you still spinning?
what are you dreaming about while you spin so fast?

you wishing you could do key west with me
or do you really want to do nantucket .. i know what you're thinking
who you are thinking about
the man from nantucket lol
he's flown away, pretending to be betsy for the day
maybe he'd like to samba or conga line with me in key west

what a crazy world.. when we practice to deceive

going to go lie down and watch/listen to a great dvd i found of Santana jamming
then who knows..

can't listen to Jimmy Buffett today or sure I would lose it and cry
about Jimmy and places I never went and the Flick and I'd zone out
far far so far away

Where is my brain today?
Lost and loopin somewhere with Franklin
watching the sun go down on another day

another day.. not living in Key West
another day away from where my heart lives
another day
another day

oye como va.. que lindo or whatever those lyrics are
bobbi

Franklin fixin to fly south? Forecast track has problems...

Crazy but true... something is going on with Franklin that wasn't in the immediate forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

So..the center of Franklin...the center mind you... is suddenly going south in many frames. What blows me away on this is everyone had the center dying out or zooming off and a new center doing this.. not the whole storm.

If you look at any water vapor you'll see heavy strong high pressure pushing down above the storm (which is why so many people saw him going south of forecast) and unless that changes I don't see it going out to sea so fast. Someone, somewhere may really have to deal with this on the East Coast.

Could just be looping and turn back again soon but think that high is building in.

Also.. since he has tumbled south.. he seems to be picking up speed and moving faster than he did all day.

What will the big guys say at 11? Should be interesting. Models are beginning to show the much talked about loop that people also known as wishcasters were calling for...

Wishcasting by the way ...goes both ways.

As for me... having some major power problem in the area. A major transformer line went down earlier and a FPL guy with a flashlight looking up at my pole says they are going to shut us down soon to fix the line "down the street." Mind you the only reason I am up is because our power went off, scared the younger boy who acted cool but wanted me to light some candles (i did, tea lights in nice safe pretty bases) and am half asleep.

Not dreaming this loop though.. or movement.

Made some fast chicken fajita sort of dinner for him. Found my battery radio and going off. Not sure the FPL guy was just playing with me or we really are going to be w/o power.. will know soon.

Nice day, crazy end... water was real smooth at the beach. Son asked me if we could come back if there is a storm. Seems he doesn't realize that's where I usually go to take photos of storm surge and storms passing by late at night. Best shot I had from Floyd I took there... rarely go when the weather is calm.

Anyway, still half asleep. Lot's to do tomorrow. New week..starting all over again in a few hours.

Time will tell what Franklin really has in mind.

What do any of us really have in mind?

Bobbi

Sunday Afternoon.. Tstorms rumbling through...

Had a great day today. Just a good old summer day. Went with youngest son and only one home these days to see Bad News Bears. okay.. I thought Billy Bob looked cute in the advertisements on TV. Rarely go to the movies. Somehow a good summer thing to do when the heat is on. Was cute, fun.. silly and Billy Bob was cute.

Went over to the old Sunny Isles Pier...now called The Newport Pier and enjoyed the breeze. Great breeze, nice pier. Old South Beach pier was the best but then.. old memories are always hard to live up to. Remember the game room that used to be here across from the pier and the movie had this reference to Redondo Beach Pier (in LA) and well.. the pier is a wonderful place to get away to on a hot summer day. When I lived in L.A. sometimes I'd take off and play hookey and go down to the Santa Monica Pier when I needed to think.. breathe.

Thunderstorms are rolling down into Miami from up there somewhere. On radar looks like a long, red, snaking line..

Watching Franklin. Not a lot to get excited about right now. Just watching, curiously. Gert going inland soon.

Somehow you get the feeling that everyone wanted to get past Franklin and Gert and move on to Harvey as if Harvey would be the real storm to worry on. Harvey just seems like it will be .. a difficult hurricane.

Anyway, the sounds of distant thunder rumbling round.. the windows are open and the house is so dark from the layers of low, rolling clouds overhead.

Going to stop worrying on Gert and Franklin and let the big guys do that for a change.

Going off... going to actually work a bit on my writing/novel. Some things I want to play with.. other things to do on a Sunday afternoon than worry on Franklin.

Going to watch the thunderstorms rolling through and enjoy the coolness of the downdrafts.

Someone text message me if you see Harvey on the horizon.

Bobbi

Random Thoughts From an Organized Mind

Yes.. neatly organized in that I have my priorities down pat.. I'm very centered in that I know exactly where I am going.. especially today though I may vary in my path along the way. Why? Because sometimes serendipity is the mother of invention.

I'm looping loops and trying to understand Franklin. Why when the NHC can do that for me? Because I love doing it, I want to understand it better and Y is a crooked letter.

People wonder who I am sometimes. They try to make sense of the various parts that seem to conflict and contradict eachother. Just accept me for who I am.

I am spiritual not so much religious. Not dogmatically anyway.

I keep the Jewish Sabbath because I love it. It is a break from the insanity of the rushed and hurried world out there and gives me a cool, breathing space to catch my breath.. like a tropical pond in a rainforest with a refreshing waterfall nearby. An oasis in the desert on a starry night. A break from my googling and rushing about the day. Time out, go away.. leave me alone, let me play.. let me pray... let me connect with something bigger than my weekly world. Come along and join me if you want to.. the house is always open to guests who wish to enjoy the Shabbos rest.. or Queen as we call it in prayers.

I find it funny and amusing that the man I dated who used to live in the religious world, built a community, started two temples and has five religious children who he insists is sure won't remain religous (because he doesn't want them to be) sends his wife thousands of dollars which in Israel monthly is tons and tons of money for her to send them to the very religous schools she sends them to... he can't come by for a Shabbos dinner because he is I suppose allergic to the word "shabbos" and doesn't want to sit at a meal though can eat for hours at a Chinese buffett where "shabbos" is never mentioned..........................and yet..............my sweet, beautiful Ojibwa friend from the North can sit at a Shabbos meal at my house for hours admiring the peace and beauty and commaraderie of the kids.. togetherness of the family at a meal and enjoy it's beauty.

Go figure.

People are funny.

Both men are good men, wonderful men in their way but the logical, computer programmer who hates to even hear the word Shabbos doesn't seem to think it's illogical to keep sending his wife thousands of dollars of money (including alimony after she remarried) to keep his children in the religous lifestyle he abhors living in Israel as opposed to simply going to a good attorney.. having the money reset to Israeli standards and/or doing something different than he has always done. His actions are at odds with his beliefs. Does he deep down want the kids to be religous and living in Israel and this is some sort of passive agressive decision. I'm not making them religous.. "she is" but it is HIS money that is supporting their lifestyle. No..not saying giving child support is bad.. it is very good. But, at times men get screwed and they need to review the situation and go back to court, ask for things they want and change the rules. He stopped giving alimony, she manipulated him back into it... seems she is good at that and I guess he likes being manipulated. Don't know. Makes no sense. Not to me...

And, no he doesn't read this blog. Could but doubt he will and if he did it's nothing I haven't said in my quiet way to him but he is a dreamer... a dreamer who thinks he is analytical and practical (virgo) but a dreamer because a practical, analytical man would do things differently. They would see reality and work with it. He is as much a dreamer as a man tilting at windmills ..

And yet the Ojibwa who I adore.. is not so much a dreamer as he looks. May own a dream catcher but he is very left brain by his own admission. Asked him once what he would do if what he wanted went against what seemed logical. He smiled and said that he would keep rethinking it til he could fit it into his own way of understanding it. That man is practical.. much more so than he is judged by many I am sure. And, has the most amazing smile, eyes, cheekbones, body and brain. Not to mention sharp enough to notice we were being watched when all I could notice was him.

The Ojibwa.. is spiritual. He sees the beauty in life, nature, people and the very Jewish man is lost in running away from being religous and doesn't stop to smell the roses, see a sunset or what is perfect in front of him. He is so lost in fighting some religious battle he doesn't stop to see the gifts that God has put on this earth. The sun, the sea, the air.. the wind, the fire in a person's eyes.

Two men.. so different, so easily judged by society...put in neat little boxes.

The world is round.. there are no boxes.. the boxes exist only in our minds.

My mind is an ever shifting shell game of round, non-identical pieces shifting constantly back and forth fitting in certain ways.

Like the water vapor loop.

If Anais Nin were alive today she would be the biggest little weather girl there was as she said often she loves all things that flow.. especially the water. She once said she loved her menstrual cycle.. the flowing of her period. I agree. I have always loved my period. There is something so totally sensual about it. So natural. I'm gonna miss it when it's gone. Funny but true.. if it ever departs :)

Water, air, blood, life, breath, wind, atmospheric currents.. around and around the beautiful planet earth it goes.. currents of moisture, highs and lows... beautiful.

Ever see an online dating service? I'm sure you have... you know NativeAmericansRUs or Jdate or some Christian site.. they all have the same questions. One is Astrological sign. I love that one... says so much about someone. Not what they say but when they say "I don't believe in it." Well, sorry Charlie that was not the question.. the question was what sign are you because someone ELSE wants to know. If you are so into your disbelief it says you think your way of doing everything is the only way. You don't believe....therefore no one else should belive. You are either dogmatic, controlling or stubborn. Just tell me what sign you are..it's not the end of the world. Chemistry between two people is the important thing.. commonalities are good but what do I have in common with the Ojibwa that would make me wander into a wig wam in Wisconsin with him and leave the Jewish Guy eating a Jewish bagel at the very not-kosher but Jewish Breakfast place. He NEEDS to be Jewish yet he wants no part of Judiasm beyond food... no Torah or the legacy of ethics that built Judiasm and kept it going. Sure wasn't those hard as rock, funny tasting bagels. Prefer toast buttered anyday.

And, no not really dating either. Still friends.

Love that bumper sticker that says "Going to Church doesn't make you a Christian anymore than going to McDonald's makes you a hamburger."

Anyway.. I am available for dates and a long term relationship (hopefully) and my concept of marriage right now would be standing on a beach or near the water in a long pretty hippy looking skirt and a tank top and a lei around my neck, flowers in my hair standing there, staring up at someone I love pledging to love them forever and thanking God for sending them to me. If that fits within your parameters.. look me up, you know where to find me. Jdate lol or HurricaneCity. Dogmatic types need not apply. Whimsical, smart, sensuous men who are both analtyical but playful and know when not to walk away from someone who makes their heart flutter like a butterflies wings.. need apply. If you have a hobby, golf, fishing.. please go do it on Saturday and let me relax... first enjoy Friday night with delicious food, relaxed eating, great sex and then go do your thing on Saturday if you don't want to spend the whole day with me.. is that SOOO much to ask. My gosh I am easy. And, I am not into shopping. I'll drink a beer and watch a baseball game or better a football game. This shouldn't be soooo hard. Giggling.

Seriously though... what I wanted to say was this.. notice how I pulled that butterfly back to the Chaos theory I wanted to discuss?

Centered. Priorities. I know who I am.

Who are you is the question?

There is a theory used in science and international relations of Chaos ..example: There was a squirmish between Turkey and Greece a while back. They had sat through many sessions of peace treaties and negotiations on their much disputed different views of how far out they own the water between them. Seems in some places.. it overlaps. Things were fine. Things were calm. Suddenly war broke up or at least a squirmish.. seems some hard of hearing fishing captain heard some noise, jumped up half asleep and started shooting into the air.. the next thing you know Jed was not a millionaire but the peace was broken. No one attacked him but suddenly he was shooting. He heard a noise. Felt threatened. Probably some passing thunder or butterfly buzzing too close to his brain. No planned out attack.. just paranoia, a gun handy and the wrong assumption.

Wars have been started over less.

Especially long ago and far away before everyone in intelligence in some little country could google and check for their leader the details. Now you can't get a good war going without hundreds of inspectors or the United Nations Seal of Approval. And, when Country George W decides to go to war... we go.. no matter whether we should or shouldn't.

Life is funny for lack of a better word.

Fourteen of the Nineteen HiJackers were from Saudi Arabia. In the old days, good old crusade days I imagine we would have jumped aboard little boats or planes and bombed the hell out of Saudi Arabia. But, today... we bombed Iraq. That makes sense.

Nothing makes sense.. that is the Chaos theory in ways. There are correlations and connections everywhere and sometimes shit just happens and then we figure out what to do next. We keep trying to Monday morning quarterback the tropics when the models don't verify in the world of weather.

At least George W just says, "oh well"

So... open up your eyes.. look around you and don't prejudge every situation or person. Don't judge by color, by religion, by politics or even by their hobbies because you just never know who someone really is deep down.

I was reading a book a while back. Beautiful book... Messages Hidden in Water or something like that.. Japanese Guy.. fancy right brain scientist. Do I believe that water talks? That it changes? Don't know. Skeptical. Open to reading it and learning from it and thinking how pretty the pictures are... Has a theory mentioned about water getting to this planet from comets.. falling constantly. Says that the water level of the earth is rising not from ice melting but from water constantly falling and seen falling on satellite imagery. I googled it. Not a lot of references but yes did say NASA was studying it. I'm more a skeptic than a dreamer but open to possibilities. The images that came back from NASA's planned collision with that comet and the data received was said to confirm the large amounts of water inside the comet and alluded to the theory that water falls to earth from comets that is being studied. I was sort of like, "wait, stop..what did that say?" This was no new age little blue book bought at Barnes and Noble (available in the North Miami Beach Public Library) but.... a NASA press release. Scientific analysis of the data from the comet. Why do we believe something faster when it has the seal of approval? Because we are afraid to believe... to take things without being SURE. To let the mind go..wander and play and see what it comes up with..

People thought Columbus was crazy. Of course he did just want to get the hell out of Spain with his shipload of many Jewish Sailors and map makers... Spain had sort of become user unfriendly.. he moved on. Got the Spannish Throne to pay for it too. Talk about a great con man :)

When Democracy was invented ...theorized it was only a theory..and many people could say the Benjamin Franklins of the world and Thomas Jeffersons were crazy .. people couldn't rule themselves. Was Democrazy not democracy... but they believed in a theory... a belief that all men were created equal. Mind you black men got the vote before white women.. so next time someone asks you "do you notice color first or sex, be honest...." But, it's okay because with the vote or without the vote some manipulative lady is getting what she wants from some man I imagine. And, vice versa. Columbus got the money to get out of town from the throne. Not so crazy a man huh? Did he believe the earth was round? Who knows but imagine he believed if he had a ship and supplies and men to sail it he could keep going til he found some new land somewhere. And, he did.

And, Queen Mary of Scotland was beheaded and her son James I went on to rule England when the little Virgin Queen died without heirs... and his line of the family is still ruling England today. Of course the Virgin Queen wouldn't have gotten her crown if her mother hadn't gone to her grave to protect her right to the throne. And, the Virgin Queen I imagine wasn't really a virgin but in the old days a Virgin was often refered to as not owned by any man. Learned all that from various astrological sites. Astrologists are both historians and mathematicians you see.

Don't pre-judge people. Benjamin Franklin was an astrologer and a meteorologist and a politician. And, I bet he never got a degree from Harvard.

High pressure is coming down off the top of the world pushing down hard on Franklin (notice the linkage) and he is not doing well. Sort of splitting in two and seeing as tropical systems need warmth, moisture and hot water I would imagine if the southern part takes over and can learn to spin it will have to be reckoned with in a few days. Maybe. Not everything is set in stone it seems. Keep watching.

I'm in Miami this weekend.. didn't go to Key West with my brother as he just always wimps out on things like this. Can't be spontaneous to save his life and always worrying on every decision. Which is okay because truth is I plan to go down there soon during weekday time frame so I can do some research that you can't do on Sundays when business offices are closed and the town is full of tourists dressed like Hemingway. I'm a Fitzgerald girl.. anyway, why would I want to go down there this weekend?

Going out, doing something with my son who is home alone while all the older kids have flown the coop this summer. Going somewhere I can feel the sun and the wind and the waves before the Great Saharan Dust Storm of 2005 settles its fine dust upon the land and dangerously close to my lungs.

Thank you for reading this ... may not have a lot to do with the tropics but hey you were warned.. was just random thoughts from my very organized mind.

Where ever my Jewish friend is I am sure he is eating a bagel this minute feeling superior to the rest of the world's religions and races. Shrugging shoulders, what can I say.. he has some good midos.. some good ethics and he is a good man.. just stuck rigidly in his Jewishness and his rebelliousness. The Obijwa :) ... hope he is happy somewhere and enjoying his son, the sun and life around him. And, may I add here that to Rev. Ron the Obijwa while not a Jew or a Christian didn't ask me out by daring me to go with him.. he didn't say "if i ask you to the dance i know you won't go with me right?" Talk about running away from a relationship too hot for you to handle and slamming your butt into a wall but arguing out an invitation vs talking from the heart. Religion isn't my problem. When someone picks a fight with you to "not go out" vs making it damn clear they want you to go out with them.. you get what you ask for.. a fight.

May I say to all of you... plan for the future, remember the past and learn from it, know that you can't control everything because suddenly dragonflies appear in the strangest of places.. grains of sand from the Saharan Desert land on your newly washed automobile... learn to go with the flow and when someone takes your breath away and you feel like you need them to breathe.. you reach out with both arms you don't walk away or give them a reason to walk away.

People round here have a lot to learn from the Ojibwa :)

Besos Bobbi
NOT spellchecking..why should I? DJ never did. :^)

Great Water Vapor.. Great Caesar's Ghost!

Been up thinking.

You know you are in trouble when you wake up at 5:55 AM on a Sunday morning and you think.. I need to read the 5AM Discussion. As I had just missed the Tropical Update I booted up the computer and sat down with an early morning cup of Joe and started reading posts online. Looping loops. Thinking. Got little goodmorning wake up treats delivered by Chris and Stedwoo at www.hurricanecity.com to play with.. wow.. unreal loops. Love that big screen, whole earth water vapor. Thank you. You do know what turns me on.. don't ya? Well.. understandable.

Anyway...here is my post from Hurricane City and hopefully I caught all the typos which I made while my mind was racing down history's pathways and through odd possibilities on what really will happen with Franklin. But, after looking at that unreal water vapor.. I don't see how he goes out to sea as the high is buckling down fast, dipping and he's either going to get lost in it or... pushed south to warmer waters with a reformed center.

For those of you who think totally out of the box may I add here..there is a mercury retrograde going on. Mechanical things don't work right and often have to be retuned (like computer models) and high's retrograde and.... centers often reform.

Franklin is an oddity in that he sort of formed under the nose of the big high and has sat in it's saddle a bit too long as someone said on the board.. makes the models hard to read him let alone find him. Weeks ago I saw models for this storm and it just sort of popped up in the bottom of the high.. pushed it's way in as a very weak system. Maybe something only a weak system could do.. and now it's being played out. So.. models always saw him doing this.. but they like bad astrologers can't always put into words what they see. You can say.. "planets just shifted into new signs.. " and guess at what that would mean.. but when working with an exception to the rule like Franklin (and this season) you often can get it wrong if you aren't open to options.. possibilities.

Tropical Storms often reform their centers.. merge, play.. a hurricane it ain't. And, there is a big desire this year to treat every system like a potential major. Tropical storms off the coast of Florida (both coasts) tend to reform and ooze around a lot.

Reminds me of that great song, sung and danced by Chris Durning in Best Little Whorehouse in Texas.. Ooooooh I like to do a little sidestep.. now you see me, now you don't I've come and gone.. and ooooooooh... yep, great scene.. have never seen anyone do it better even on stage.

So... what will Franklin do?

Don't know.. but something kinky and wierd is happening with the left side of that storm.

An ULL is jumping around over Florida. The circulation or storms blown off of Frank are oozing over into the ULL and there is some quirky swirls forming on it's western edge. A visible center to it's northeast just where the NHC wants to put down the cords but where is the weather? Would worry with a weak, odd shaped system that has already survived by going south once ... where a new center will pop up. Gert, beautiful on the sats (prettier than I thought she could ever be) is moving west for now... away.. wnw..

High is pressing down strong.. can Frank hold on and get himself out of this mess?

Keep watching.

I know I will be.

****
I love this site. Use it often ...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html

Gives you a great handle on possibilities and probabilities.

All day yesterday I kept reading something on the weather patterns of the 30s. Dirty 30s to some... and thought how if we had that set of weather systems today we would be on the cover of every magazine today with doomstay articles about GLOBAL WARMING 2005.

But... there was no such thing as Global Warming back in 1935 though I believe a lot of preachers did blame the weather patterns of that year on people and their evil ways and a sign from God to change those evil ways. (yes going to listen to Santana today)

Back in 1900.. the book about the Galveston storm makes it clear that weather was bizarre that year and people were blaming it on other things.

Comets were blamed often. Weather wierdness was blamed on Hailey's Comet.

One could say my marriage was irretrievably broken due to the passage of Hale-Bopp through my life. Well, you know.. playing here.

Truth is.. scientists always want someone to blame someone or something.

Being left brain and analytical is good but sometimes it blinds you to things someone who is right brain will see and catch. Right brain people go outside the box..find data like little squirrels scurrying around for nuts and then run back and run the new data through their very analytical brains.

Not all analytical people are left brain, many are right (like me) but in the end they take the data.. use the process and evaluate the results.

Read online that when Landsea passed and dropped out of the Global Warming committee because they had arrived at the end game w/o wanting to play the game. Was more about writing press releases and giving good arguements for Global Warming rather than seeing if it had indeed sped up and was taking over.

Can't put the horse before the cart.

Do I believe in global warming?

Yes. I do.

Because I believe everything on earth is a process and nothing is stagnant. The only constant is change.

Then again ... it's been seen that what we thought back when on global warming at times caused the opposite effect and that also is explained away like the NHC is explaining away Franklin hoping the wierd doesn't happen.

Only thing is..when talking weather..wierd gets thrown into sentences real often.

Look at the tracks for 1933..and know this. Before the Dust Bowl storms made their way into the Oklahoma panhandle.. they started out further east. One storm was so strong that it carried dust from Chicago to NY and Washington DC and ships in the harbor in NYC were covered with Dust that started back in Wyoming or some such place on it's way to Chicago and then the Mid-Atlantic coast. Would have to google it and I want to blog soon and am short on time. You google it :) Then the storms settled down about the Oklahoma Panhandle who got a bad wrap for the whole dust bowl thanks to one famous reporter and another famous novelist. The whole panhandle is about 30 miles wide mind you and Kansas and Texas took it BAD but Okies got blamed for being just dumb old folk who screwed up the top layer when indeed they were in a set up of weather years that caused a drought. Yes, learning to farm better is good.. but you can't fight weather.

One dust storm lasted FIVE days... FIVE. Five days of total darkness ...

Now, without being able to google previous weather events in history you would think it must have been God getting back at you for not bringing Emily that apple pie last week when she was sick and or... didn't drive Norbert into town for his great aunt's funeral.

Had to be something BIG and CRAZY.

Truth is the 30s brought droughts.. winds and dust storms. And..wild, wild hurricane years.. same years. 1933. 1935. Two of the biggest years of storms.

The 40s brought one hurricane after another straight to South Florida. We were the magnet of choice. My father, a mathematician, went to UM and lived on Miami Beach often in cheap apartments on Ocean Drive and Collins Avenue. Slept through one storm after another. To him a hurricane a year was a normal thing. The way life was in Miami.. he had not much else to compare it to as he came down to Miami about then.

My Grandma.. an old timer, pretty much a Conch by conception would have told him.. sometimes you get them, sometimes you don't and every year she said, "oh I sure hope we don't get one of those storms"

The 50s were quieter...
The 60s were wild again ..

Etc.. on and on it goes.

But, we didn't have global warming and big government grants out there to apply for to study them to link all of this together and get the answer we want to manipulate the experiment towards.

So what would you have attributed the years 1933 and 1935 to if you were just Betsy down on the suddenly very dusty farm or hanging on to her baby brother in a palm tree in the Keys?

If you want to understand the prsent, look back... and understand the past.

Can't put the apple before the cart just because your brand new split screen computer monitor can do models faster than mine.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1933/index.html

Worse year of the Dust Bowl.. drought, heat..hell they even had an earthquake and yet Mother Nature didn't provide any relief did it? Storms were all east of the Mississippi and the Emily/Gert storm went WSW.

Models are fun.. would prefer picking Gray's brain.

Franklin Spins A Guessing Came Off The Florida Coast

Round and round and round he goes... where he'll stop.. nobody knows.

Reminds me of a scene in Cat Ballou. Can't remember the whole song and not going to google it. Sitting here waiting with a friend for the 11pm to come out.

Watched the Redsox game. We won! Very cool.. tedious.. slow.. no big surprises, we won. Nuff Said. Oh..and had on my Redsox Necklace my friend sent me :) My son, Zalmy makes me wear it when they are playing. My gosh.. oh my goodness.. I don't know who is worse.. they created a monster. Either way..we won!

As for Franklin... is the NHC going to win this one.

They have been so on the money the last few storms I hate to see them blow one; especially one so close to home. The semi-colon was for my nutty friend;;;;

We are waiting..for the 11pm ... or waiting for the 11pm discussion that comes out after everything else..while people bite their nails or eachother waiting for that discussion. Explain why they can't have it ready or do they do this on purpose??

Reminds of those wierd extra-tropical storms Christopher and Eduoaurd, Eduaord, oh heck.. have that mind block on Ed's spannish name.. they did funky things out there. Looked funny... sort of went baroclinic... hybred storms.

This isn't exactly Jeanne but it's a similar scenario.

This is July..a very, very hot July.

To talk of strong troughs or even shortwaves is really foolish and it seems to be that although the trough did tug at Franklin a bit.. it stopped moving north.. is really moving East and wants to go SE and its tearing itself apart over the decision.

What I don't believe is this storm will fall apart. It has managed to hold on for days through the most adverse conditions around and is still with us and ONLY with us because it danced a bit here once before and ended up falling south and then the southern part developed. Will this be a Deja Vu dance?

Don't know.

Had a wonderful shabbos today. Hot... AC struggled to work. There were tons of dragon flies everywhere today. Looked like a horror movie about to happen. walked through them like walking through some sort of special effects scene on the way home from my brother's house where we ate lunch.

Last night had the older two boys home for a meal with their girlfriends.. nice meal. Went well.. 2 kids who live here and the rest was like date night. Nice night.

I was in a good mood. Still am. Good mood going strong.

Okay..it's out.

They are first off annoyed. You can tell that but the title .. "Franklin weakens a little" It's their way of saying "Bad, bad, boy" It has looked the same all day.. funky and strange and not real together but still windy and now when it't not doing what it was supposed to it gets a reprimand in the opening title.

That storm is not going ENE at 12. Not from where I sit. Might go ENE at 12 if the NHC gets its way but without models to verify a change in forecast they are not going to break away and do their own thing. Waiting for discussion then "we" are going to bed lol. Friend online..

Anyway..here is the advisory.
Hold onto it here.

Either it verifies and the models were right.. or its to be looked back on as a poor forecast by Mr. Avila.

Time will tell..

Good discussion at HurricaneCity.com tonight.. loved going on after shabbos and reading through the posts with my friend, while watching the Redsox game on the computer. Good thing I can multi-task huh?

When you have a chance, good blog by a friend from HurricaneCity.com..wish I could do a fancy one with graphics but with working on my novel again and work and life and well.. put it on a "to do" list and will get around to it on Island Time. Key West Island time.. still waiting on that tomorrow maybe..

http://stormchasingmikey.blogspot.com/

As for Franklin.. will see what tricks Frankie Boy has in store, huh?

Going to read the excuses.. I mean discussion and try again tomorrow.

Happy Birthday to my ex-husband today ... no he doesn't read this but well.. still it is his birthday and I'm happy for him. Hope he only gets good things in his life.

Lastly.. respect NHC a lot. We are always complaining about their logic and all but they are the best...they are the ones who have to adjust and adjust they will if and when Frankie doesn't go quietly out to sea.

New ballgame tomorrow... batter up.. buy your popcorn, peanuts and some beer if your stadium allows and be back here tomorrow... after the 5am.. the proof will be in the pudding by the 5am if you ask me.

Now..will I be in Miami or Key West...that remains to be seen.

Bobbi :)
ps.. I say the upper level low over South Florida is having an influence and part of Frankie's circulation is looking the wrong way and twisting funny. It will get its act together and then... we will see which way he goes.

As said online..for anyone in the South Florida or Central Florida area to ignore a storm this close to home is about as stupid as stupid can be... because it's way too close and steering currents way too erratic for anything to be a sure thing.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 240240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...FRANKLIN A LITTLE WEAKER...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT
500 MILES... 800 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.3 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Friday Afternoon

Sitting here playing online with my crazy, cute little friend talking weather online and other various topics.


Let me set the stage...

It feels about 95 in the shade and the AC isn't working.

Im sitting here in a maroon towel, the fan blowing on my body.... my leg up a bit...
too tired to really think much, joking around... wishing there was intense convection going on somewhere close .. would love to go outside and just stand there and let the water, rainwater wash over me... wow...

Wishing on a houseboat in the Keys..down in Florida Bay.. late afternoon tstorms and someone special to lie in bed and watch the show... feel it.. enjoy it.

Franklin is being a pain ..a royal pain. Maybe he will do something interesting but I don't think so.

One part of me wants to go .. "not going to get a storm this season.. no way, nope" and another voice says, "oh right"

Going off... made dinner, cool but hot salads... spicy, dips... hope my almost daughter-in-law brings some cool fruity wine.

Wish I was on a house boat in Florida Bay right now with my crazy weather friend.. feeling the water, feeling the breeze, watching thunderheads build in the distance.

Oh...yes...Stormy Weather indeed... just the way it should be.

Enjoy loopy Franklin and Miss Maybe Gert... personally I want a real storm.

Any real tracker knows what I mean.

But, til that day comes... hurricanecity is so much fun. Great mood on that board lately. Someone very funny and good at writing is having a blast besides me :)

chow for now
Bobbi

Franklin Stalls.. kinda sort of...

Or he's shimmying around trying to find the best spot in town to intensify.

Conflicting forecasts from forecasters who are usually on the money and yet ... quite simply conflict.

Don't think this is wishcasting the storm to their location.. just too much uncertainity.

Got a developing system down in the Carib that is now an official Invest on NRL site and has hurricane hunter planes going in to check it out.

There is a trough up somewhere in the country that is either going to effect Franklin or blow past Franklin and leave Frankling sitting and spinning. Truth is Franklin is getting up in age and the closer he gets to 30 the more north he will want to go.. for now, he ain't there yet.

The high wants to push him west.. or will just work it's way around him, capping him from doing much but intensifying.. ouch..

Some have said he will be pushed by the high to the wsw towards SE Florida.

Others think he will do Nantucket..

A murky looking satellite and not much to judge him by that has been before in a similar year as there are no similar years that we are aware of ..since record keeping began.

Don't you all wish you could talk to that Cuban Priest now... Father Juan Vines (did I spell that right..don't have time to google it)

So...for now we watch.. seeing as he is just outside my door and the air in Miami from subsidence is so hot and dry you feel like we are in L.A. having a Santa Ana as it's windy... out of the East. Hmmmmmm, think on that one.

As for the personal stuff..

Youngest son came to the library today for the finale of our Summer Reading Program. The Bug Man.. and he brought bugs to show the kids. My son is upset he was rushed out of the house by syblings dropping him on their way to the beach and he forgot his Harry Potter. Can you imagine..he had to go to a library without it... Must be about 6 Harry Potter books floating around my family, he was smart enough to put a hold on it on the library system.. so his was free.. or taxes bought it.

Great new Kosher Restaurant-Take Out opened up across the street from the library. Good food, well spiced... tastes fattening in that they use oils and creams.. and not traditionally Jewish Style but trendy. Had an unreal Waldolf (cant say it or spell it) Salad with apples, sunflower seeds, pieces of orange and sliced strawberries. Wow.. And, some chicken pasta with great round pasta and dark meat chicken. Good..saving Spinach Quiche for Shabbos I think. Am stuffed. And, I like the Zero Coke.. reminds me of the good old days and Tab. Am in the minority I think but I like it.

Son is bringing his girlfriend for dinner.. some kids going.

Making Chicken with fresh veggies.
Gefilte Fish..
Chumus
Guacamole
Corn/Black Bean Salad
Salsa

stuff like that...
whatever strikes my fancy if I ever get to the market for salad stuff.

For now.. back to ye olde reference desk.

Watching Franklin.. and not as interested in Gert but will see how it all plays out.

Great waves down around 10 cruising towards South America and the Lesser Antilles like Emily did..

What a season.

Bobbi, good shabbos!

Franklin Forms Off the Coast of Florida

Perfect huh?

What a day..

Out of the blue.. faster than a speeding bullet... the wave that wouldn't say die .. got a name.

This morning.. was marginally favorable for development over the next few days.. no models, no discussion... just "maybe" more favorable and the next thing you know Franklin at the National Hurricane Center gets to name Franklin. And, that was only after an attempt to keep it at a Tropical Depression status for a bit.. ships and bouys said otherwise. Planes foned home..

After long diatribes on how we were just going to have to relax.. rest, catch our breath and can't be tooo spoiled.. no development for a week or so. Something about Upper Level Lows and Saharan Dust and WHAM BAM... Look out world.. there's a storm.

Not to mention earlier there looked to be two developing. One down near the Yucatan and Franklin in the Bahamas. Still could develop, probaby Gert.

Even someone like me who thinks she has seen it all .. was blown away. Two storms that looked identical for a while..

Must have been nuts at the National Hurricane Center.

As for me.. we had three programs at the library today. THREE.
A business development workshop luncheon for people wanting to start a business.
A movie for 70 kids, sitting on the floor throwing popcorn around and in their mouth.
Same room.. all same room..
Then the final Adult Literacy class for people who are learning how to be turors to help teach other adults to read.. coach them. We used leftover food for them for a special treat for their program. My mother graduated from the program. She has been taking the classes.. busy day.

Helped some kid put together brochure for a Chess Tournament from Caribbean Nations. Been here 6 months, can barely speak English but nothing intimidates him. Inspiring.

Went to a great thrift shop today and spontaneously bought a white french provincial dresser with a mirror that looks just like my Grandma Mary's dresser. Though hers was probably the finest wood but this is so beautiful. Something so special about my Grandma Mary.. no one like her. A real Southern Belle. Southern Jewish Belle but real Southern Belle. Made me feel so much closer to her. Something so special about Grandma Mary. Bought a white wicker headboard for either my bed or my daughter's bed .. have a month to decide before she gets back from sleepaway camp in NY. A fancy, good.. leather swivel chair for the computer (which is what I went in there for .. for 19.99) and trust me it's so comfortable. And.. a kick ass stained glass, tiffany style hanging lamp for 12.00 thats my colors.. purple orchids. Man in one store delivered stuff from both at very low rate..sweet man. Edwin insisted he'd make sure the lamp (in delicate though whole shape) would get there in one piece. He was good to his word. Mind you I NEVER ... EVER spend money like this. But, all were just what I needed, wanted and one thing I learned in life.. you never pass up a great bargain in a thrift shop. And.. woke up this morning thinking .. I have to get rid of that dresser and where am I going to get one? Never thought I'd end up with one... was looking for a computer chair.. ended up with what I needed, wanted and didn't even think to look for...

That kind of day..

POOF.. Grandma Mary's dresser.. with mirror.. like a double.

POOF... Franklin.. like deja vu Jeanne..

Some man hit on me in a dollar store. Kept teasing me about wearing glasses to read and he just got them cause he is 40 and insisted I didn't need them cause I'm nowhere near 40. Told, him was over 40.. so there they were the redneck and the store owner from Trinidad hitting on me guessing my age... wrong. Nice.. don't mind not at all. Wierd and nice to look young but even better fun to feel young.

Sometimes I do.. young is a state of mind.

Was hoping to play hookey with a secret someone with a small break in the tropical weather but am back in the hinterlands of life.. on the back burner as we roll back into full tropical wierdness mode.

Great posts online ... great. Great, great writers. Great minds. Maybe even a few great bodies. Who knows.

Saw an unreal cute body yesterday, kick ass ..gorgeous.. gorgeous.

Also spoke to my best friend who is in Macon, not the Maine defector and made plans to runaway for a day with her somewhere later in the month. Miss her, she's so cute. So much fun.. old boss, other best friend... like a sister in ways.

So...I'm sitting on the bus today on my runaway morning.. really needed to run off this morning.. and this preacher guy comes on wearing a big brand new clean football like shirt with the number 54 on it. Singing praises of Jesus to the passengers. Then realize his shirt has a Chicago Cubs symbol on it. My gosh, 54, Jesus and Chicago.. sort of like HOME RUN in my memory of things gone by.. and I giggle. He passes out some brochures to people who put up with his preaching.. Only in Miami. Gives me one with a picture that looks like the Devil card in the Tarot deck I saw this morning and it says, "Let Jesus Save You.. Don't End Up in Hell!!!" Am thinking there is NOOOOO wayyyyy Reverand Ron could have set this up. No... noo..no. Thanked him and asked him his name. He told me was on the card. See.. really for real preacher. No Ron, no Ed.. no Jason. Not even a Stevenn. lol.. Just a Caribbean Preacher preaching the holy word.. on the city bus. Made me giggle.

God its sooo good to live in Miami :

Will post more on the very thirsty Franklin and the hungry looking Gert as time allows and when I can get a good hang of it.

For now I have to figure out where things go in my bedroom and get some rest.

Watching Redsox on Yahoo Live... not the same as being in Fenway Park but hey.. at least I'm safe down here in Miami from the funny F family up there.

Wonder where Yaffah is.. I should write them.

My baby brother turned 40 today. He and his wife went to Sanibel Island.. took the war with them there.. am sure he's bitching abotu again being out of town when a storm is developing on this side of the state.

Figured today was a good day to celebrate life.. his life... my life... baby brother 40. So wierd..

Keep watching the tropics.. just never know what's going to happen, until it happens.

Bobbi

Next Storm on the Hit Parade of 2005??

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

So far that is what we are looking at to see if it is..or if it ain't a viable system.

Sort of pathetic how these storm trackers will lust after anything that even might remotely be spinning.

Okay so that is where we are ... models take it across Florida this weekend somewhere between Miami and Palm Beach I guess.. into the Gulf where it will suck up hot water and go bananas I suppose.

We will see.

We will watch.

Some of us will stare obsessively at loops.

Others will ponder on the really gorgeous guy that was in the library. Simply gorgeous. Really. Honest.

Where was I?

Oh... what could be Franklin with time...

So, here is the discussion that was put out by the NWS out of Miami.

Figure it's worth repeating, posting and trying not to wonder what the guy looks like not wearing that button down shirt.

Sorry..where was I?

Something twisting this way wicked comes. Great, now I'm talking like Burns.
May go home and have a drink...some pink citrus thing I bought but didn't drink.

My 15 year old son, going on 16 real soon went to NY for TWO weeks to see his father. TWO WEEKS! Am almost free.

A friend signed me up for Jdate.com they decided that Frumster was too religious for me and they wanted me to meet someone I could spend Shabbos with...nice but it looks like the same guys from frumster. With different pictures. My gosh, some people are persistent in perpuating this hoax they have of (in the words of the late, great Ed) "harassing me" and yet hard not to laugh. So, now I have FOUR pictures of the same wierd guy with the wierd "absolutely" familar smile lol. I think it's funny.
So.. made this name.. Bobbi33162 on jdate. Get it? zip code..good, good.

Bet the cute, gorgeous guy who had a wedding band on in the library isn't on jdate unless he's playing around and am tired of people playing around.. I want REAL.

REAL.

So... going back to the twisty thing north of the islands... maybe it is and maybe it ain't. Either way will probably be my date for the weekend. Cuter than anything I saw on Jdate.com

Oh smile.. got nothing much better to do anyway and can ponder on 99 later tonight.

Bobbi
how did he get so cute?
was he always so cute?

************************************************************************************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE. A RIPPLE IN THIS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...OR
ALSO COULD BE CALLED A WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER CIRCULATION OVER CUBA...PASSED THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE TO ABOUT NAPLES TO NEAR DRY TORTUGAS. THIS
RESULTED IN MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE METRO
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHWEST GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS RIPPLE...THE NEXT FEATURE SHOULD BE A TROPICAL
WAVE/DISTURBANCE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN ADVANCING
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ACROSS OUR AREA BUT THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS.
NAM AND GFS NOW SEEM TO AGREE ON MOVING THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
FAR SIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THEY BOTH
DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW...TROPICAL DEPRESSION?...EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE IT NORTH WITHOUT REALLY
AFFECTING THE STATE. WITH A WEAK SYSTEM IT WOULD SEEM MORE LOGICAL
THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE MODEL SCENARIO SEEMS QUESTIONABLE
AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS. FOR THIS PACKAGE
WILL EXPECT DISTURBANCE TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...TRENDING BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY BUT EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON EXACTLY
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE DISTURBANCE...WHETHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
OR NORTHEAST OF US...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BUT AGAIN MUCH DEPENDS
ON EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE WAVE/DISTURBANCE.

Emily Stalls... sort of breaking news

Well no one expected..

Sort of surprised me. I was sitting at a cute little Japanese Resaurant with my boss having dinner. The food was good, the saki was better.. the cell phone went off and it said.. "Emily Stalled" And, I was like "OH MY GOSH" (well maybe I even cursed lol) but was sort of a kodak moment.

Anyway.... okay so Berwick is right (think it was him) and sometimes they stall there as it's the end of the high and...

Either way the point is NO ONE talked about it happening and prolonged rains from a storm just off shore could cause much more damage than if she was just zoom, zoom, zooming on through.

Nice dinner.

Note:
I am not any longer upset with the cute guy who I am sure was not Ron hiding behind glasses and a grin. Just an optical illusion. The saki blurred the edges of my mood and no I did not have saki because of that but because it was a long day and it looks so cute in the little white vase thing. I like saki. The last bottle I had was from my ex-husband who sent it to me for a Chanukah present. Spent more on the postage than the Saki probably lol. Should tell him to send when the 15 year comes back in a few weeks from NY. I know I can go buy some.. I do, but it's not the same. It's always more fun to get presents.

So.. on the record. It's okay. No longer in a pissy mood from the pissant person lol.

Isn't it great to have friends who send you emergency, weather bulletins?

and life goes on and on and on ... and the Redsox won tonight!
Go Boston!

Love Bobbi


........................something is going to develop soon I think even though there are a lot of naysayers talking about dust off Africa and a big High.. something just has to slip in, under the high.. slip sliding in the sand.. coming all the way from Africa.

Hi Ho Sandman.. Love Lois

Exception to the Rule.. from previous post

All except Ron who is a BIG pain in the You Know What and still AFTER 30, no wait..let me think on this..............38 YEARS

THIRTY EIGHT YEARS

Still cannot look me in the face and act like a mensch without hiding behind some stupid grin and a pair of glasses and pretend he is not who he is.

I guess one day after another 38 years go by and he and I are STILL alive he MIGHT be able to OPEN HIS MOUTH and say "Hi, BObbi!"

idiot

otherwise, all of my old boyfriends are dolls

of course ... we never dated, so I suppose he doesn't count under "boyfriends"

just annoying, pissant, prankster, people who prefer pulling someone's pigtails and running or hitting all the buttons on an elevator and running out fast



You have NO courage or you wouldn't have run out so fast before I could say something.

And...sorry FOLKS but that's just the way it goes... he reads this so let him read what I think.

and Life Goes On.............

Emily Aims for Mexico.. AGAIN and... old boyfriends off topic

Again, Emily aims for Mexico.

Some people...somewhere want to believe she will hit South Texas but those in the know are betting on Mexico. Of course .. Texas could taste just a few drops of her rainfall..a little tease of what might come..down the road.

Anyway... great to watch from the safety of my living room. Some nice radar sites online at www.hurricanecity.com though imagine all the message boards are trading pics back and forth.

People ask always.. "Why do they stay?"
Because the next day, the morning after people on tv always seem to ask "is that all their is?"

When the BIG ONE comes along it is like love... love at first sight and you don't forget so fast... it sort of sweeps you off your feet, takes your foundation out from beneath you and you don't ask "is that all there is?" the morning after.

Hurricanes are a great similie.. metaphor...for life.

So... all I can say here personally is I really do have some of the best old boyfriends in the world. A bit strange in ways, agreed and they have their own thought process.. logic but they are caring, good, funny and hard to forget.

I never understood women who trash men. Men can be your greatest friends, assets and producers of smiles. They don't really give a damn if you forgot to tell them to add a dash of ginger into that recipe. They don't care where the hell you bought those pumps just that they look good on you and will tell you if they want to see open toes or ankle straps but they won't give a damn where you bought them or complain you didn't tell them there was a sale going on. Who goes to sales? Too many people and I prefer impulse buying when soemthing is on a really great sale and looks really great on my body. Men don't bitch about the weather or how it will muss their hair. They don't care if you have a beer and relax and shoot the breeze, infact, they prefer it. They don't worry you will get a beer tummy...they aren't looking at your tummy :) Well, they got better places to look where I am concerned. They can get in a whole arguement with you over politics, sports or the weather and afterwards feel they have bonded with you and that you rate... vs women who will hold a grudge forever because you didn't agree with them on some subject. Men don't bitch that you are watching a baseball game, football game or even The Weather Channel. They may ask though "will Sunday be a good day for Golf or fishing" and find your knowledge useful. A woman usually only emails you to ask "if the storm is going to hit" vs a man who will usually ask "when will the storm hit." Men know how to get down to the nitty, gritty "need to know" details.

Shopping with men. So much easier to find a good pair of jeans. You go to the size you want and there they are all on some neatly organized table.

No way a man is going to spend an hour hunting through the womens section, the stores know that and make it easier. Length of leg, hips, stomach, butt size, type of closure.. tight, loose.. faded, not faded.. find it, pick it, grab it and go. Shopping in a man's section is like an afternoon delight or "slam, bam, thank you maam" vs... "I don't know, I can't decide..there are so many of them? How will I look in them? Will it make my butt look big?" No, Virginia your butt is big or you are not playing up other attributes to stop a guy from worrying on your butt. Look him in the eyes, smile mischevously and he won't care if the jeans are cut right or not.. he will want to take them OFF of you. Ain't no hiding your ass then is there?

Just my opinon.

Only an ex-husband you are friends with will ask you if you need to talk about some guy or relationship ..call him anytime. Old boyfriends give me the best love advice I have ever had and I have to call one today to wish him happy birthday. He will be happy to hear from me, by the way, and not bitch or complain I didn't call him yesterday when it was really his birthday.

Don't get me wrong. I have lady friends. But, they stand in the wind with me at the beach when a storm is coming and sit on the sand without worrying where the little grains of sand are going or whether they will have to wash their clothes. They hang, talk ..shmooze, laugh and shoot the breeze. I can't deal with any other kind of friend, male or female.

Just my opinon here.. but men are usually much more fun than women and good old boys should be our most treasured, protected species.

To all the men I've loved before... I still love you.

When I am in love.. I do wear my heart on my sleeve.. yes Jason you are right.

When I am in love... no one else exists.

When I am not madly in love... I agree with Anais Nin.. I have the right to choose my prince and change him often or whatever that quote is I like so much..

When I have loved someone.. a part of me loves them forever.

You can't just love the one you are with .. you can physically but the mind goes elsewhere.

When you fall in love.. really in love it should be forever. And a friend is forever.

For those of you who want to talk to Vince.. or whoever you were looking for
He has died and gone to heaven, metaphorically speaking. Hands off and let him be happy.. he truly looks better than I have seen him in years.

Something great about being free.. footloose, barefoot and fancy free but nothing like falling in love. Until you do fall in love and grab hold of the subject of your affections... grab her ass, hold her tight and don't ever let her walk away... until that day comes... like the Big One... enjoy your friends, thank God you have them.

Gidget... signing off

can never ever decide who she loves more.. the Big Kahuna or Moondoggie

chow for now ...Bobbi
ps... thank you Chris for those great links.. thank you Jim for letting me find them and being you.. Howie you owe me something, I should remind you :)

and..........now that we are almost done with the E storm..
can we all move on to the F storm ;)

Monday Morning Thoughts on Emily

How late did Jim stay on air I am wondering. Have to wait til he catches up with email a bit to find out unless someone online knows.

Emily raced onshore and is almost offshore about to land her still very strong center into the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico depending on which on air person you listen to.. Intact, big round ball..not as strong as she was but far from falling apart.

Where will she go?

A topic to be discussed later at greater length is "why people stay" and that is not an easy question to answer.

Many reasons.

Denial is a big one.
Ignorance is another

"I'm from Oklahoma and we have twisters back home..." Yes Martha but back home the twister hits fast, you have no chance to save your innocent ass and it moves on.. you get luck or you don't. A hurricane can last hours and have strong twisters in it.

"I'm from Minnesotta and we get big winter storms and ten feet of snow and..." (obviously they have missed the difference between blowing snow and a storm surge, someone will explain it to them one day.. maybe)

"Up where I come from we have noreasters.........." That folks is my favorite. I cannot wait to go through a noreaster on Nags Head or Cape Cod and be able to one day explain the difference or understand their indifference. Can't wait.

Lazy reasons. Evactuated for David. Evacuated for Floyd. Evacuated for Frances. "Am never ever going to load everything I own into a car with five members of my family and get stuck on I-95 looking for gas.." most often heard comment after last year.

Sexy reasons? Mnnnn Ummmm yeah would like to try that in above mentioned noreaster in Nags Head.. anyone want to apply for that job?

Claustrophobia. Heard last night 3,000 people were crammed into a shelter without electric, AC or lights. Many would prefer to hide in a protected bathroom in the bathtub with a mattress over their head clutching a flashlight.

Control. They want to be in control and feel more in control taking their stand, to live or die in Dixie..

Procrastination

Pets

All sorts of reasons.

Wrote this earlier.. will add to it but it is true.

More to come..

It's an interesting point as to why people stay.

Someone online suggested it was a "fear factor" reality tv mentality of young kids to want to stay. You know like Survivor Stories they can tell their grandchildren or sell to Storm Stories one day..

But, think kids basically are "stupid" at that age any year, all the time w/o the TV show and think it's a partying occaision. For those who are not good little practical teens who want to hunker down with their parents, baby brothers and grandparents and crazy Uncle Ted.

During Georges 2 of my teens and a few of their practically "live in my house" friends came back after we evacuated to a friend's house that was safely boarded up down the block. They were supposed to be staying at their friend's parents house.. and I went with the younger kids to my best friend Sharon. I came back for a battery tv I forgot between mild squalls and found them in the "back room" sitting with candles and beer or soda, don't remember tho the legality of either was not the point of what they had in their cups... they weren't supposed to be there partying. They decided to ride out the storm in the house.. back room a room badly constructed in my opinon done by people before us with two massive mango trees over the roof and the east wall a sliding glass window.

I freaked. It was a bad time in general for me that period in my life. I will admit. Single, raising about 8 kids at home. Called the cops who were riding around to make them leave. I think they called me Psycho Mom or something and left. It was their Techno-Gothic period. The cops said they would keep an eye on the house and make sure the kids weren't there or safe... They also said to go back to my friend's fast because the dopplar on their laptops in their car showed a strong cell coming. It did, though it was one of the only strong cells that storm had to show Miami.

No we didn't get George's brunt. Yes, they would have been safe in retrospect. Cantore or someone was on the beach 3 miles to the east of my house. We weren't sure at the time we were so safe.

Fast forward... last year we rode out Frances in the back room. Me and the few kids left home, a calmer time in my life and very sure we would be okay. Less hype too for Miami over Frances than we had with Georges.

Dina the teen in charge of the hurricane party now living on her own in Brooklyn calls me up hysterically and wants to know WHY am I in the house. Why didn't I go to my brother's house a few blocks away ...he has shutters. What is wrong with me.

How things change with time :)

Course weather junkie she is and always was she was sitting up all night in NY watching Jim Cantore on the TWC.

It's all a matter of perspective sometimes.

I was a bit psycho that year (for good reason) and it was very nuts.. and the HYPE on us getting Georges was big time....big time hype.

This past year I have friends online who I trust who insisted we would get not much more than tropical storm force winds from Frances. Funny how you listen to friends at the hurricane center better in an email than on 5am advisory but anyway... point is.. between what I could see, and I knew and they knew... I was not sitting at my brother's vs the comparative safety of my house.

If I had lived on the coast in a condo I would have shlepped myself and my kids to my brother's house and ridden it out at my brother's house with his son who is terrified of thunderstorms and my mother....and my sister in law dealing with my mother.... ewww. Good to have just in case but we weren't at the in case point

If I was alone with weather friends... close call. Depends on my very educated guess.

Told friends in Key West before Dennis made his way across Cuba it "probably" would be safe to stay BUT.. party line is to leave. Off the record, they would be safe in either of the two places they wanted to stay as Dennis would weaken a lot over Cuba and Key West would be okay..though they could be without power and it might be a real mess. I also reminded them that although the Synagogue Bnai Zion was built to be a shelter and supposedly could withstand a Cat Five (its not wooden, poured concrete, high up, modern structure) it has never been tested so... I wouldn't rely on it.

NOW...if Dennis had been a Cape Verde, Cat 4/5 approaching Key West from the E or ESE I would have told them to come stay by me or other friends on the mainland.

Big difference which way the storm is coming at you when you live in Key West.

Why do people stay in a storm?

Because most people do survive if they live in a safe area, safe home, properly prepared with a good knowledge of what you will need to survive the storm. Not on the coast in a small one story house a block from the ocean without protection on the windows. Not on a muddy hillside in Haiti. Not in the apartments that went under across the road from the Gulf during Camille. Not on Galveston in 1900.

But, its a numbers game and most people are gamblers deep down .. they take their chances.

Or...they evacuated and never want to sit in a car overheating on i95 wondering if the next gas station still has gas. Sharon's boss kept calling on her cell crying and fighting with her husband stuck somewhere on the Turnpike during Frances. They lived in a condo on Collins. By Jeanne..they stayed. Still married, still not happy campers but they stayed.

Either way you follow the old adage:

Run from the Water, Hide from the Wind.

More later..Bobbi

HurricaneCity Live On The Air... great job, amazing

Jim Williams is doing a live broadcast tonight from www.hurricanecity.com as he usually does but may I add he gets better and better with time. Like a good weather wine.

Seriously... anyone who happens to come across this lost little message board tonight should tune in www.hurricanecity.com/live.ram

He has researched it carefully, has images he is broadcasting to show exactly where the storm is making landfall. Live animated radar off and on with other images.

He spoke a long time with someone in Ft. Lauderdale who has lived and worked in the area affected. Gives all an excellent mental image and lesson in the culture, geography and economics of the area where Emily is moving onshore.

He is monitoring the networks coverage to give updates.

Reading emails people who are part of the www.hurricanecity.com network an dgiving great details..

As someone said.. the song of the wind is ... beautiful.

Even in the darkest moments of Andrew when I thought there was water several feet deep downstairs.. and the house on Miami Beach was being buffetted by strong squalls.. you could feel the house shuttering.. floor boards vibtrating as we lay upstairs in a protected alcove.. listening to the song of the wind. No matter how scared, how worried I was or how amazed.. the song of the wind is the most amazingly beautiful sound for those of us who love weather and nature.

You hear the sound.. you have a moment of fear and then.. awe.. savoring the sounds it makes because it only makes it off and on while the bands march through.

Storm chasers are phoning in Jim Edds is in the area.. friend of Jim Leonard. A whole network of weather people we know and respect.

A great ongoing drama, live on the internet...

In my life .. my own dramas..

Sat listening to Drudge for a bit talking about Disney's 50th birthday and I was remembering when my ex-husband and I went to the 30th Birthday Celebration. Let me put this better... my fun loving, disney crazy ex-husband dragged my very pregnant ass down to Disney world from West L.A. and kept asking me if I was sure I didn't want to stay there and have the baby at Kaiser Permanente in Bellflower. Was an ongoing joke... the night Esther Shayna was born we were in Disney with out of town relatives, I was overdue (we were 20 minutes from the house, we lived in Long Beach then) and all through Disney I kept going to the bathroom every ten minutes or so, relatives asking if I was okay and me clueless and not wanting to deal with labor kept saying "yes, fine" until Aunt Mitzi decided she was not buying that. Remember asking on the monorail "what time is it?" and then when I asked again my ex-husband Eliezer smiled and said with a knowing grin, "about 10 minutes since you asked last." I was like "yes I am fine" Got back to Long Beach, arranged for the oldest baby to stay with someone and went to Bellflower "just in case" and she slipped out a few hours later. So... think he was hoping to save a trip back to West Hollywood just in case.

Disney's 30th Birthday Celebration was UNREAL fun. So much fun. There were fireworks, singing, friends.. Hal and Shawn were there all day. Sat around on Main Street near the castle watching the party. I'm sure it was hot. Hey, when I was 9 months pregnant it was hot in December :) But, usually had all these leo babies.

The Leo Ex and I were on the phone tonight.. he had a caberet, one man show tonight at "Dont Tell Mammas" and he gave me a blow by blow.

For those of you wondering about the baby born 20 years ago.. He hung in there and waited til August 7th and like the good little leo he is he waited to be born at Kaiser-Hollywood. He tells his friends proudly he was born on Sunset Boulevard. And, so he was..

So.. today is July 17th.

All day that has bugged me.. ate at me. Kept thinking it's Morry's birthday tomorrow.. July 18th.

Not Bastille Day.

Tonight cleaning out my things I found an old note from an online friend. Have looked at that note over and over ..over the years. I keep it with some old pictures and the hurricane tracking map they sent me. The first thing I ever got offline from an online friend. Dated, as always. 7/16 or 7/17.. that was the date that kept getting stuck in my mind.. Well, Steve was wrong.. 1997 turned out to be the slowest hurricane season in modern history :) Great map, great note.. as my daughter Dina used to say.. great handwriting :)

Oh..well.. oh what a night.. sweet september back in 63.. is that the song? Can't remember..

Have had a lot of presents since but that one for some reason always meant so much. Just a note. Just a map. Just a smile.

Reaching out across the miles.

Wonder if anyone else was there for that Disney 30th Birthday Celebration.

Tonight in Cozumel no one is celebrating.. they are praying they don't get the full bront of Emily's fury.

Lastly, in leaving.. may I say I truly can sit and listen to Jim talk forever :)

Really. There is a fortune cookie somewhere smashed to smithereens to prove it lol.

If anyone doesn't know.. Jim is Virgo. He is very detailed oriented. He is one of those few people without a massive ego who can say before the season starts.. an area on the Yucatan will get hit and when the storm comes in just a tad bit north of there he honestly admits he blew it with his forecast..so far.

Well Jim, no you didn't blow it. You did a damn good job. Damn good as on the money as most people will ever get.

The song goes When You Wish Upon A Star... Jim is a weather dreamer. He lives, breathes and dreams weather. My ex-husband, my friend.. dreams of making it on Broadway one day.. who knows.. I used to sit on my porch and make wishes on stars at 17. I sat there on that porch in Westchester, Southwest Miami ...staring north at a star that hung low over the horizon. It was north of me.. where the love of my life was.. and I wished and wished and wished upon the star that he heard my wishes.

I'm still the same young, beautiful girl, older and wiser and maturely beautiful sitting at night staring up at stars wishing the same wish.

To all my friends in my life who I hold so dear from weather chasers to my ex-husband ... to you know who.. may I hope once more, again and forever.. may all your dreams come true.

Bobbi