Mitch & Models Waiting on Winter!
Watching Mitch talk models...
....why do I do that?
#1 he's good at it, he loves it.
#2 it's a bit like watching a slow motion train wreck.
Not my cup of coffee first thing in the morning.
1 model run.......
(it's the EURO)
....shows snow possibly.
or Ice!
Maybe.
Far out down the icy road....
Further down the icy road on the GFS
It's as if the algorithm knows which areas are the most winter weather deprived and throws them a bone on the 10th of 11th day knowing we are hooked and going to come back for more. I don't think that's an overly paranoid thought. Also if CLIMO is KING then IF it's gonna happen it'll happen deeper into January.
What's the problem here?
Lack of cold air....
....not much of a snow pack to our North.
Our = Carolinas.
I'll be honest with you. For me, at this point in January where I am debating wearing sketchers or sandals today, talking on snow chances down the road is like debating on watching the Miami Dolphins play their last game knowing the "shit show" goes on though there's some promising players to watch and this long run on sentence is how this Winter has felt so far in Raleigh. We did have some snow early on and I am very thankful, that buoys me up a bit thinking we will get more. But I didn't watch the Miami Dolphins this past Sunday til the very end thinking by some miracle every team will lose or get the flu and the Fins will get into the playoffs. There are no illusions here.....
I do think we will have snow again in Raleigh this winter. When or how much I can't say, but the main problem currently is that the COLD is NOT in place. When you get a feed, a fetch of weather coming at you in January and you are hoping for snow it sure does help to have the snow pack in place to your immediate North somewhere to get snow when the Southern Stream of the Jet hooks up with plunging fronts.
Snow needs cold air (below 32 degrees preferably)
Snow needs moisture.
We have been crazy dry in these parts. Dry and warm though we have cool nights. It's not a horrible recipe for Winter which I'd take anytime over a hot Carolina Summer.... but.....the ingredients need to at least be in the pantry or on the counter before I start counting my snowflakes.
Jim is on TWC moving his beautiful hands around out in the Pacific, showing how the system is moving in and how another disturbance is behind it. The sound was on mute but he began making faces and I figured I should turn the sound up. Yeah, some snow is coming through but not anywhere near it should be for this time of year. But hey.... it will be snowing by the resorts and its gonna be a great ski weekend!
This is how I am coping with the Winter of 2025 and 2026 and I'll add December of 2025 was way kinder winter weather wise to us than the January 2026 part of it. I just can't run the models. I watch the X feed. I watch the satellite imagery. It's just not happening in the short to midterm time frame. But, I do listen to Mitch and a few others on YouTube as YT is more entertaining these days than most other venues and I can find anything I want.
It's not Hurricane Season.
Football Season is fading away.
There are hearts and candy in the Dollar Store as we are moving on til Valentines Day. And, it doesn't make me feel better when many of the long range models people on X begin to say "hey in Februray tho" because I am not holding my breath til February on January 7th. Nope. I'm wearing sandals.
Have a good day.
Enjoy the video below. If you are going to listen to model discussion Mitch is good to listen to...
Remember though he doesn't promise he says "could" happen and I can live with that as it definitely "could" happen as the cold dives down, but not betting the farm.
Have a great Wednesday. I am not even going to proof read this again as deciding between Sketchers or Sandals plumb tuckered out my snow deprived brain and I need a real Starbucks!
Chow for now..
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
Ps ...............Thanks for coming to my particular harbor....
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:21 AM
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