11 AM 80 MPH Hurricanes Imelda & Humbeto Hit the Road Out to Sea......... Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. Thoughts on What's Next Down the Tropical Road. October NOT All Over in 2020s!

 

11 AM 

Welcome to the Imelda and Humberto Show.

Imelda 80 MPH ..................Humbeto 80 MPH

Who had that on their BINGO card.

Map not so scale obviously...

Imelda still has Bermuda in the crosshairs and it has a Hurricane Warning up and they are expecting landfall. Bermuda is a wonderful island that is built for Hurricanes, they are no stranger to hurricanes and yet if the forecast verifies then this could be a bigger than usual hit vs one just cruising by offshore. There are some questions in the forecast, as discussed by the NHC in their recent advisory. How strong will Imelda become, she is currently forecast to max out at 100 MPH. Personally, I'd say IF she's intensifying vs struggling then she may go higher so keep that in mind. And, the actual movement and interaction between the two storms may alter her track a bit more than expected currently in the current forecast. As Humberto becomes weaker, Imelda becomes stronger. So we have to stay tune for any last minute changes in the forecast, but Bermuda should prepare for a landfalling Hurricane Imelda.

On a personal level, the winds late last night and early this morning picked up where I live. Not a steady wind, but random strong gusts where the wind made actual noise. That doesn't happen here. I stood out on the balcony watching the pine trees dance and smiled thinking "must be a hurricane" and when I went inside and looked at the NHC site........it was indeed Hurricane Imelda. While it's far away offshore at the beaches where surf is kicking up the way it normally does with a NE wind blowing on the beaches. 

Down the tropical road............   as I mentioned ........models are modeling putting out possibilities.

The reality is that until Imelda and Humberto leave the room, so to speak, the Atlantic should be quiet for a week or so. That is not to say models are not dreaming up scenarios for trouble in every part of the basin but they are long range and less reliable. While we are moving into October of 2025, the season is "backloaded" and therefore we expect October to be busy and possibly dangerous. Will hurricanes come up from the Caribbean or form close in the Gulf manking landfall or do we have a continued parade of close in systems forming near Florida and moving North as they are allowed by other factors in the atmosphere as the pattern has been this year. In 2025 the old adage "October all over" does not apply as the 2020s have seen very active Octobers.

The basic purpose of hurricanes is to move air from the tropics up towards the poles and late in the season allowing or let's said "aiding" cold air from the poles to flow South towards the tropics.  Hurricanes such as Wilma, Matthew or Sandy flip the switch on Winter and cooler air pounded up in the Arctic is released down and that allows our planet to be healthy and not stagnant.

This process is shown perfectly above.

Note at the base of the ET like figure..

..there's a warm, tropical moisture feed.

It's much like a gas line for a car....

As I & H move further away from the tropics.

These lines set up and you can follow them.

Down in the SW Carib there's a "red brick road"

It feeds them, it fuels them.

Once that is gone.

That energy is stuck down in the Carib....

...at some point usually something begins to brew.

If it's a westbound tropical wave that meets up with it.

It can....form into a wicked October Cane.

So far this year the area has been quiet.

Usually it's quiet with El Nino.

We are not in El Nino.

So....

Will it begin to boil up trouble?

Looking at the lower part of the Mimic....

...you can see the flow from East to West.

Tropical Waves.... westbound.

Another scenario is a westbound tropical wave moves up towards Imelda's breeding ground, or Erin or Chantal and spin closer in and ride the Gulf Stream either to landfall or out to sea. It's also possible, but not desired, that a storm can form close in the Gulf near the Yucatan and be lifted up over South Florida by a cold front and then out to sea. Florida gets hit more in October, especially South Florida from the Gulf to the Atlantic, by October storms.  This is the way of the world, weather patterns, seasonal patterns and generally we rely on them but at times something changes and surprises us.

Reds and pinks are of more of a concern here.

Green is very low probability.

These go out 120...

...just a vague reminder

Somewhere some model sees a storm out there.

Very few actually form this far out.

But it's an indication where to look.

When NHC posts a yellow circle we pay attn!

If anything unusual happens today I'll update.

I'm not expecting it but ....

...that's why they call them a surprise.

Have a great day!!

Where ever you live........

...hope you find things you can love about it.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere whatever

excute any mistakes.... 

...love the weather but giving me a headache 

is what it is.... meds work eventually

it's cooler, it's beautiful

gonna go take a walk

enjoy the music

5 PM Imelda 65MPH Stronger - Humberto Nearby Watching Trying to Pull Imelda Away... It's Just a Matter of Time.........

 

Mimic look is artsy.

Humberto holding on...

...trying to grab Imelda

Doesn't want to go yet.

Busy intensifying... 

Let a girl pull herself together...

Note the deep tropical moisture feed

that basically they are sharing.

My dancing mind just goes there...

...some Apache Dance from an old movie.

(not sure which movies this was...

...but I know the dance scene)

And there was the one from the 1920s

We all love the Roaring 20s right?

I know Thor does... 

1926  Great Miami Hurricane.

Great Bahama Hurricane.

Cuban Hurricane... 

I digress.

So that's my take on the Fujiwhara thing.

There they are center stage.

Pull and tug or is it tug and pull.

Both steering currents for the other.

Watch wave off Africa... one last chance wave?

Gulf ... maybe.

140 MPH Humberto.

We can see how this movie is ending...

Right????

Models are sure.

It's just a matter of time...

Tomorrow morning I'd think...

...Imedla will be a Hurricane.

Or sooner...

...then eventually

Forecast to be 100 MPH

Bermuda Bound (for now)

Stay tuned.

Have wonderful evening....

BobbiStorm

Great song.

Saw this movie in LA.

Hollywood Blvd Movie Theater

Never gets old...

Did you know there was a song...

..about a storm???

So close...................

Trying to keep this blog focused on weather.

But hey when they touch.....

.... tantric dance moves.

IMELDA 60 MPH Knocking on Hurricane Strength's Door. Humberto 145 MPH Watching Imelda. Rain Spreading N Up into the Carolinas ... Love Me Some Rain with Tropical DNA

 

Facts matter. Devil in the details.

Imelda stronger.

60 MPH

Hurricane Intensity getting closer....

Looking at Discussion first.

next paragraph of importance.....

Down belowthe Sting Jet is explained more.

Note with every updated advisory....

...they have gently upped wind speed forecast.

Now at 100 MPH

Link below for discussion to read yourself.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text//MIATCDAT4+shtml/291459.shtml

Zoom Earth shows both storms.

Also keep an eye on the Gulf...

...down the road.

Imelda had Bermuda in the cross hairs...

... it's a small island.

Things could change....

..but stay prepared and aware.

(yes I say that often)

Imelda looks awesome on satellite imagery.

Imelda is building a solid core.

Look at that solid ball.

And a rudimentary tail as well.

Round. Solid. 

Might end up vertically aligned.

Would that not be ironic.

Messiest storm to solid storm.

Keep watching.

Moisture associated with Imelda is strong.

Looks here bigger than Humberto.

Humberto way stronger.

But I want you to remember that...

....oh and the Gulf.

Previous Cone from 5 AM
Showed the solid hit on Bermuda too.
NHC being very steady and careful.
Let's see what wrench gets thrown in...
....seems in 2025 there's always a wrench.

Truth is she has developed a solid core and I need to see more of this core and see if it is really vertically aligned as it has been very messy til recently. NHC says in the discussion it's tilted vertically.  If so the HRWF model showing a Cat 2 is not so far fetched, could it be more. 2025 has been hard to get storms forming, but once they do they want to go all out. Today is a day to watch in real time. And, in my case enjoy the steady light rain falling from Imelda. You can see the Earthnull imagery as well as her friends.

Showing here how rain is moving inland...

Rain moving in ..in bands.

Bands of stronger rain, then light rain.

Up from Imelda.

Note Chick shows here they are streaming N.

Not from a frontal boundary.

From Imelda.

Chick knows things..........

.......he watches everything.

Gabrielle after going towards Portugal

Is causing flooding in Span..

Remnants, strong ones.

From Zoom Earth...what a weather maker.

So stay tuned.

I'll update later.

The NHC seems very sure.

That's good.

They also mention other models differ.

That's their job.

Buck stops there.... 

My big question is how strong does she get?

If she gets stronger faster...

...could she hit Major?

Or just be happy she became a Cane.... 

Have a great day.

Very impressive!

Sweet Autumn Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather...elsewhere whatever.

Love this song.
Fell in love the first time I heard the words...

"at a caramel colored sunset sky"

Had it as a ring tone back when we did that ...

Good song...

...at home just sitting here looping hurricanes.

There's been discussion that a "Sting Jet" might develop, and if so it would mix things up some. I figured I'd put the definition here and hope that helps should you start hearing about it. Could be a game changer. Ironically Humberto in 2019 encountered a Sting Jet near Bermuda. This year there's questions on Imelda and seriously when you ask what else could happen??? Why not... Add in she could put on a show and be stronger than expected down the road. So stay tuned.

a little more...   as it creates a problem.

Don't Judge Imelda By the Past....She May Be a Diamond Someday.... Humberto Has Peaked (??) What's Next? Season Far From Over...

 

Pressure is down to 998 MB.

While she make not win honors for presentation..

..its within range for a TS.

I have not spoken much on Humberto.

Reposting this from X.

Good point.

RI happens "fast"

Obviously but very fast often!

Hopefully Imelda has no surprises...

...and stays within it's lane set by NHC.

Forecast for serious winds to stay offshore.

Below you can see Imelda & Humberto

A rare sight.

You can also see the top of the flow...

...showing where they will both go.

Out to sea, if forecast verifies.

It should... 

Humberto has peaked.

And should.... be turning soon.

This is Humberto on Dvorak Loop.

We use Dvorak to help measure intensity.

Structure, strength.

Imelda is cooking!

Getting there.

Should be align vertically ever.....

......she could surprise.

Remember I said she's have a nice tail?

That tail could tickle the FL coast on her way North.

Follow your local NWS please.... 

She may surprise us!

I'll say this. Papin writes an excellent discussion. It's always very "clean" well put together, logically written as well as giveing life to the story in the most meteorological way.  I have a degree in English, grammar and symmetry is important, but so is content as well as context and he does both very well. It's a good read, easy to comprehend, even for a beginner, well worth reading as on satellite imagery it's hard to discern exactly what is going  on in Imelda. Note below, they do forecast it to become a hurricane.

 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/282053.shtml

Salient Data is below.
Could Imelda surprise us??

Lastly, I want to remind you the Season is not over.
October is forecast to stay busy.
And again I worry on close in (Gulf)
and.... SW Carib.

Models are modeling.

We say "fetch" they run and find the  ball.
Or in this case the a storm.
Before one has formed they are just a guess.
Let's say a "suggestion" to take with sea salt.

You will start seeing models....
...on possible formation down the road.

But for today.... 

We seem to be safe from landfalls.

But possible rains in Carolinas....
.... time will tell.

Amazingly today it looks like those old models.

Two eyes staring back at us...one stronger.

If models are correct Imelda gets bigger later.
It's the GFS below close to the coast.

But Erin like offshore.
EURO also big but further East.

Thanks for following along.

Thanks for your patience.

Stay aware and prepared!

Hurricane Season is far from over... 

..backloaded season indeed!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather...elsewhere whatever...

TS Imelda Forms....... On the Move Finally. Humberto So Close By & Still So Strong. Thoughts on Tropics at the End of September Remember

 

Cone still the same.

See what NHC says at 5 PM

But we now have a Tropical Storm

That's something you don't see every day.

Wind Prob Graphics.

11 AM  TD9

Humberto below.

Yes, you are right....

...that does look similar.

Key Messages for TD9 

Near land and in the Bahamas

(more or less...)

Pretty Loop Below

Keep reading below... I actually wrote this...

...on X as a post in real time.

In a mood was hard to think what to say...

...figured I'd do better making a long post.

Today is an out of the box day. So I decided to write this blog in real time on X and adding to it here with graphics.  Hey hey you got to write when the inspiration grabs you ;)

Gulf has a small something there, Humberto looks so close to ... td9.. li'l wave out in the MDR mentioned before & new wave off of Africa. When do we get Imelda?

Use this loop above as a guide to what I'm saying.  

An image down below as well.

Bit weird format wise today because........

....I wrote it on X in real time.

just scroll down

Thanks

Besos BobbiStorm

Song here vs at the bottom

Really she will be a cowgirl but it's 

2025 so anything goes.

Different song maybe next blog ;)

oday is an out of the box day. I'm going to blog here (write long) then cut & paste inblog with updated thoughts. Gulf small but oddity there, Humberto looks so close to ... td9.. li'l wave out in the MDR mentioned before & new wave off of Africa. When do we get Imelda? I think it's obvious to say that while this was a difficult forecast with lots of moving parts, it really comes down to basic tropical meteorology. Big Major Cane nearby sucks all the life out of the tropics inhibiting diffuse, feeble wave from developing until big Cane goes far away. Let's go back in time to 2023 & I believe Idalia & Franklin, until Franklin moved on Idalia could not really get going in the Atlantic after crossing Florida. I think it was those two but it went on and on even tho Idalia was separated from Franklin by Florida they were close enough that there were questions on interaction. Have to nail down facts later. There are two problems with TD9 (yes 2) the part of it that is forecast to be Imelda soon.... is one part of the in the Northern swath of moisture similar to a "vertical wave complex" (I made that up) and there's a lingering dark red area still South of Cuba hanging back refusing to follow the leader up into the Bahamas. Perhaps that's good as if they both combined it'd already be Imelda and stronger. TD9 should get a name soon it's signature on Earthnull is better, clear center there and just needs a bit more convection and that's happening. What happens with the part down at the base of the "vertical wave complex" is a question. Maybe nothing, maybe something. 2025 has been a year of lots of somethings, lots of nothings and lots of surprises. So don't be surprised if Imelda grows up to be a fancy Cowgirl someday. Humberto ... so many expected it to be a Cat 5 yet NHC was didn't to put it into the forecast til it was catching up...why I'm not sure is what it is and it's spectacular to loop and watch. It's also still lower, slower than I thought it'd be. They are so close. Out in the MDR there is a wave that's struggling, can it pull together ? I can see it wants to but Humberto will probably put an end to that fast. There's a new interesting wave off of Africa. The Gulf has been quiet, but there's a little swirl (not that NHC uses that term in discussion I feel better about saying "a swirl in the Gulf" watch it curiously... I think the forecast from NHC & various NWS along the coastline is carefully done and the area from WPB up to the Cape (Kennedy) may get more than expected tho unless Imelda pulls herself together she will amp up the moisture misery for the state of Florida and that's not hard considering every day of late has been some wild cell and waterspouts offshore. Depending on the STRENGTH of the yet to be Imelda and the forward speed, Carolinas (and Georgia) may have to deal with more than just rain but we are still waiting for time to tell... This is not exactly the hurricane that is going to flip the switch and shoot freezing cold fronts down to the South so I think we will have one somewhere that will down the tropical road. Then again does Imelda (some day soon) move out to sea after dancing with Humberto or does it snap back and come back like the old iconic cat that came back some day. Watch in real time........ Stay tuned it's a definite drama. The good part of this is that everyone knows TD9 is out there and there is a chance.... as a friend would say "there's a chance" that it may stall, loop and evade capture by Humberto and do something surprising.... but in the end it will go out to sea like most storms do eventually (rhymed) so that's it. Keep watching, enjoy the day. Pay attn to your local NWS no one has your local back the way they do and the NHC is trying very hard to nail down the specifics. As for the models... pick the ones you prefer and ignore the rest. If you know basic synoptics and tropical meteorology 101 (updraft ...downdraft) then you knew it would play out this way despite all the models madness. Season not over, who knows what else 2025 has in store for us.... stay aware and prepared. Thanks for reading along in real time and I'll load this up as a blog with some pretty pictures and a song... Have a good Sunday, BobbiStorm

oday is an out of the box day. I'm going to blog here (write long) then cut & paste into blog with updated thoughts. Gulf small but oddity there, Humberto looks so close to ... td9.. li'l wave out in the MDR mentioned before & new wave off of Africa. When do we get Imelda? I think it's obvious to say that while this was a difficult forecast with lots of moving parts, it really comes down to basic tropical meteorology. Big Major Cane nearby sucks all the life out of the tropics inhibiting diffuse, feeble wave from developing until big Cane goes far away. Let's go back in time to 2023 & I believe Idalia & Franklin, until Franklin moved on Idalia could not really get going in the Atlantic after crossing Florida. I think it was those two but it went on and on even tho Idalia was separated from Franklin by Florida they were close enough that there were questions on interaction. Have to nail down facts later. There are two problems with TD9 (yes 2) the part of it that is forecast to be Imelda soon.... is one part of the in the Northern swath of moisture similar to a "vertical wave complex" (I made that up) and there's a lingering dark red area still South of Cuba hanging back refusing to follow the leader up into the Bahamas. Perhaps that's good as if they both combined it'd already be Imelda and stronger. TD9 should get a name soon it's signature on Earthnull is better, clear center there and just needs a bit more convection and that's happening. What happens with the part down at the base of the "vertical wave complex" is a question. Maybe nothing, maybe something. 2025 has been a year of lots of somethings, lots of nothings and lots of surprises. So don't be surprised if Imelda grows up to be a fancy Cowgirl someday. Humberto ... so many expected it to be a Cat 5 yet NHC was didn't to put it into the forecast til it was catching up...why I'm not sure is what it is and it's spectacular to loop and watch. It's also still lower, slower than I thought it'd be. They are so close. Out in the MDR there is a wave that's struggling, can it pull together ? I can see it wants to but Humberto will probably put an end to that fast. There's a new interesting wave off of Africa. The Gulf has been quiet, but there's a little swirl (not that NHC uses that term in discussion I feel better about saying "a swirl in the Gulf" watch it curiously... I think the forecast from NHC & various NWS along the coastline is carefully done and the area from WPB up to the Cape (Kennedy) may get more than expected tho unless Imelda pulls herself together she will amp up the moisture misery for the state of Florida and that's not hard considering every day of late has been some wild cell and waterspouts offshore. Depending on the STRENGTH of the yet to be Imelda and the forward speed, Carolinas (and Georgia) may have to deal with more than just rain but we are still waiting for time to tell... This is not exactly the hurricane that is going to flip the switch and shoot freezing cold fronts down to the South so I think we will have one somewhere that will down the tropical road. Then again does Imelda (some day soon) move out to sea after dancing with Humberto or does it snap back and come back like the old iconic cat that came back some day. Watch in real time........ Stay tuned it's a definite drama. The good part of this is that everyone knows TD9 is out there and there is a chance.... as a friend would say "there's a chance" that it may stall, loop and evade capture by Humberto and do something surprising.... but in the end it will go out to sea like most storms do eventually (rhymed) so that's it. Keep watching, enjoy the day. Pay attn to your local NWS no one has your local back the way they do and the NHC is trying very hard to nail down the specifics. As for the models... pick the ones you prefer and ignore the rest. If you know basic synoptics and tropical meteorology 101 (updraft ...downdraft) then you knew it would play out this way despite all the models madness. Season not over, who knows what else 2025 has in store for us.... stay aware and prepared. Thanks for reading along in real time and I'll load this up as a blog with some pretty pictures and a song... Have a good Sunday, BobbiStorm

I think it's obvious to say that while this was a difficult forecast with lots of moving parts, it really comes down to basic tropical meteorology. Big Major Cane nearby sucks all the life out of the tropics inhibiting diffuse, feeble wave from developing until big Cane goes far away. Let's go back in time to 2023 & I believe Idalia & Franklin, until Franklin moved on Idalia could not really get going in the Atlantic after crossing Florida. I think it was those two but it went on and on even tho Idalia was separated from Franklin by Florida they were close enough that there were questions on interaction. Have to nail down facts later. There are two problems with TD9 (yes 2) the part of it that is forecast to be Imelda soon.... is one part of the in the Northern swath of moisture similar to a "vertical wave complex" (I made that up) and there's a lingering dark red area still South of Cuba hanging back refusing to follow the leader up into the Bahamas. Perhaps that's good as if they both combined it'd already be Imelda and stronger. TD9 should get a name soon it's signature on Earthnull is better, clear center there and just needs a bit more convection and that's happening. What happens with the part down at the base of the "vertical wave complex" is a question. Maybe nothing, maybe something. 2025 has been a year of lots of somethings, lots of nothings and lots of surprises. So don't be surprised if Imelda grows up to be a fancy Cowgirl someday. Humberto ... so many expected it to be a Cat 5 yet NHC was didn't to put it into the forecast til it was catching up...why I'm not sure is what it is and it's spectacular to loop and watch. It's also still lower, slower than I thought it'd be. They are so close. Out in the MDR there is a wave that's struggling, can it pull together ? I can see it wants to but Humberto will probably put an end to that fast. There's a new interesting wave off of Africa. The Gulf has been quiet, but there's a little swirl (not that NHC uses that term in discussion I feel better about saying "a swirl in the Gulf" watch it curiously... I think the forecast from NHC & various NWS along the coastline is carefully done and the area from WPB up to the Cape (Kennedy) may get more than expected tho unless Imelda pulls herself together she will amp up the moisture misery for the state of Florida and that's not hard considering every day of late has been some wild cell and waterspouts offshore. Depending on the STRENGTH of the yet to be Imelda and the forward speed, Carolinas (and Georgia) may have to deal with more than just rain but we are still waiting for time to tell... This is not exactly the hurricane that is going to flip the switch and shoot freezing cold fronts down to the South so I think we will have one somewhere that will down the tropical road. Then again does Imelda (some day soon) move out to sea after dancing with Humberto or does it snap back and come back like the old iconic cat that came back some day. Watch in real time........ Stay tuned it's a definite drama. The good part of this is that everyone knows TD9 is out there and there is a chance.... as a friend would say "there's a chance" that it may stall, loop and evade capture by Humberto and do something surprising.... but in the end it will go out to sea like most storms do eventually (rhymed) so that's it. Keep watching, enjoy the day. Pay attn to your local NWS no one has your local back the way they do and the NHC is trying very hard to nail down the specifics. As for the models... pick the ones you prefer and ignore the rest. If you know basic synoptics and tropical meteorology 101 (updraft ...downdraft) then you knew it would play out this way despite all the models madness. Season not over, who knows what else 2025 has in store for us.... stay aware and prepared. Thanks for reading along in real time and I'll load this up as a blog with some pretty pictures and a song... Have a good Sunday, BobbiStorm

Adding a link to August 2023 when there was talk that Idalia would do odd crazy things like Ginger from 1971 an odd crazy year and in the end it intensified up in the Atlantic (after crossing Florida and went out to sea.  https://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2023/08/