Will Something Form in the NE Gulf? Yellow Circle Over FL Remains. Does it Cross Florida and Threaten Carolina Beaches? July 4th Weekend Getting Closer...

The 2 day image below

The loop is chaotic but shows many things.

Starting off with our area of interest that's a big yellow band aid across Florida you can see the convection in the NE Gulf that's being propelled down into the Gulf by the flow around the top of the Upper Level Low that's in the Bahamas. That area flares up with convection as well and while rare to see the convection in the IR loop when an ULl sits over warm water a long time spinning it's common for it to sort of "gulp" in some of the moisture. As a matter of fact, named storms have formed that started out as Upper Level Lows that sat too long over warm water and as the spin is already there they sometimes can start spinning up into a cyclonic feature and get a name. Not saying this is happening, pointing it out as you cannot look at the area in the NE Gulf without noting the spin to the East of Florida in the Bahamas. And, that is why the yellow band aid is so large and stretches across the state. 

It's also worth mentioning something that concerned me a few days back and that is the leftover moisture from Barry that was to the North of Barry is colorful and still there off the coast of Texas to the North of where Barry made landfall. I brought this up as a concern on X late at night when we were all discussing the many parts of the Barry issue. 

You can also see there is much wind shear in the Cairbbean. The loop below takes you closer up into the Gulf, yet shows little of the Bahamas which is why I showed the first one.

Again the moisture in the NE Gulf.

Barry's leftovers off of South Texas.

Something wants to form in the NE Gulf.

But it's just a "sense" and nothing more.

Generally to light a fire you need a match.

A spark.... that takes a stagnant set up..

...into a developing set up.

GFS shows Tuesday a front. 

Friday the EURO shows this below.

The rare Summer Frontal Boundary moved down and then began to fall apart and linger over the area. Convection in the NE Gulf is evident but the energy begins to cross over to the Atlantic side of Florida and there's a sense that that batch of convection moves up along to the coastline... offshore mostly but this is not a strong signal and most disconcerting is the GFS seems uninterested. Go figure.

CMC shows an itsy bitsy system.

GFS is actually strange.

Barely one frame shows a little dot over SFL.

RAIN. 

Atlantic High shows a character from Dr. Seuss.

Flossie still in the EPAC.

Some runs of GFS show a TD in NE Gulf.

The GFS is very proud of itself!

Look at that High Pressure!!!

The GFS did show something in NE Gulf

Icon showed something strong.

Hinted... showed.

The models come and go.

Models tracks show up and spray the SE coastline.

Nothing cohesive or consistent.

And some show nothing.

This is a picture of my TV screen.

I leave it on mute silently in the background.

In case something big happens in the world.

I watched to see if the local channel showed it.

Oh....they did.

They never mentioned Barry!

This Florida system....

...bit too close to Carolina beaches to ignore.

And that is my bottomline today.

Don't ignore it.

NHC has it at 20% to monitor.

Monitor it.

Don't cancel your beach plans for July 4th.

Pay attention and monitor it.

That's it.

We are in wait and see mode.

Remember this there's rain now ...that's a start!

Down the 5 day road.

Lots of rain.

Where there's rain low pressure can form.

Swirly, cyclonic low pressure.

Will it?

There's a possibility.

Too soon to tell.

Check back tomorrow.

Anything big changes.

I'll update the blog today.

Otherwise check back tomorrow :)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X where it's mostly weather.

Elsewhere weather and whatever.

A li'l taste of winter...

...to cool some of you off.

Enjoy your Winter Dreams

UPDATE!! TS Barry Forms in BOC and TS Flossie Forms in the EPAC. Next Name Up in Atlantic is CHANTAL... C Storm. 2025 Hurricane Season is Here... Pick Up Extra Stuff for July 4th Weekend. You Might Have Unexpected Guests !

 

NHC pushed the button!

Flossie is very visible in the Pacific 

Forecast to be a Hurricane.

TS Barry below...forecast to make landfall fast.

Recon made the call on the upgrade.

Barry is what I often call our...

"sacrificial BOC system at the start of the season"

And then we move on............

Not all seasons but many.....

...have an early weak TS in the BOC.

Before moving on to Prime Time.

Please keep reading.

I wrote the blog at 8 AM.

Before everything changed.

***

oh and don't forget TD2 

Sitting here this morning talking to friends online and watching and wondering when something definitive would be added to the mix regarding the possibility of something forming on either side of Florida in the near future. It's not about models as much as the set up that is ripe for ripening fruit fast. And, a little while ago the NHC took out their yellow crayong and almost from the coast of Alabama to the Carolinas dropped a big banana across Florida!  

TD2 is over in the BOC doing it's thing. Note much of the moisture connected to TD2 is not close to it's hard to find center and will cause weather across a wide area regardless of an upgrade to Barry or not. 

When you live in the Carolinas and it's been beastly hot and no I am not exaggerating and you hear the word "cold front" or even just "front" dropped about casually in discussion,  bandied about from various National Weather Services....the heart races, a smile begins on your lips and your eyes take on that look of a young teenager in love. 

From a tropical perspective this can easily be a spark for whichever storm name we'd be looking at (depending on if TD2 gets a name) and it's just a matter of time until we see how this will play out. So the NHC, wisely, went wide and deep with this morning's play and that works for me. Many have said we could get something in the Gulf in the cradle of the Big Bend close in to the Flobama as we say Down South that could pop FAST due to very hot water. And, others say the area off the SE Coast near Jax could produce something as well especially since the Upper Level Low there is stirring things up and I don't just mean the imagination! Some people even say both can happen. Hot summer nights lead to lots of shooting the breeze on the tropical porch!

So stay tuned. Shop over the week for the holiday and put aside something for July 4th in case you have some unexpected guests. 

Remember this is still the Minor Leagues, but sometimes players at the Durham Bulls do end up in the Big League so keep watching. 

Truth is this part of the Hurricane Season are tender times that remind you to get ready for the Mean Season that is coming soon! 1992 was a mean year with hot, searing heat for weeks, months until Andrew developed deep into August. No quiet short lived Andrea in June. But you never know when it can turn your Summer Dreams of a beach weekend to remember to a ........ beach weekend to remember. So pay attention!

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather but elsewhere weather with a little side of whatever

I put the song up there for ya ;) enjoy the trailer to a great summer movie.....

TD 2 Forms in BOC! Invest 95E Still an Invest in EPAC! TD2 Forecast by NHC to be TS Barry! Don't Let Your Guard Down When You See "Nothing for 7 Days"

 

Well that happened today!

TD2 just cradled there in the BOC.

I did expect it to be a red circle.

Recon went in and we now have TD2

That escalated fast!

NHC forecast it to become Barry.

Love this image from Zoom Earth

Really spectacular site!

Earthnull shows how close to land it is.

Interaction with land is a small issue.

You can see TD2 in the BOC

Invest 95E in the East Pacific.

Lots of moisture in this part of the Atlantic.

Even a feisty wave fighting shear in the Carib.

I spoke about this yesterday that both systems are part of the same general CAG area...hovering on either side of the narrowest part of Mexico. It's hard for both to develop at the same time as always one can inhibit the other depending on various factors. Invest 95E is at 90% for development in 7 days and 80% in 2 days. 95E is spread out as you can see and struggling, but it should get there soon. TD2 has had a beautiful shape on various imagery and was and is more compelling. TD2 is close to land and your typical BOC sudden "pop" up system that shuffles off to Mexico. One models brings it in a bit higher, but I think it's safe to say you can all be singing Mexico by Jimmy Buffet with this one. Official Cone below!

Official cone for our "shorty" storm!

The lesson I want you to take away here is this:

This is a list of my recent blogs.

On June 20th I wrote that the NHC says nothing for 7 days in the Atlantic. I put the caveat up in the blog that June is known for Pop Up storms ... "surprise" Home Grown systems that form suddenly close in to the coast. I mentioned the BOC, I mentioned areas off the coast of Florida and dead frontal boundaries in the Gulf that always need watching. Two days later on the 22nd of June I posted the new area of interest that was yellow in the Atlantic off the Florida coast that went on to become Andrea our first named Atlantic Storm shortly after that. Later in the week we began talking on an area in the BOC that is now Tropical Depression Two! There is still current discussion on a tropical drama close in that may start in the Gulf but not stay in Gulf in the not so distant future, time as always will tell the real story. So do not get complacent when nothing is forecast to develop in the next 7 days.

The reason I bring this up is not to make fun of the NHC as they do the best they can and also discuss areas in the Atlantic they are watching that doesn't make the hit parade on the news.  People go online to their site and look to see if there's a yellow lemon suddenly placed on their pretty blue screen on their main page. Or they just wait to get some notice in their social media feed and then they seem surprised and sometimes annoyed. There's always something out there being monitored by the NHC for any signs of possible development. Models can be "OMG awesome" or "worse than trash" if you follow social media hysterics online by frustrated storm chasers in the depths of quiet June. June too soon becomes busy and that is my point here.

Do not let the NHC "Nothing for 7 Days" graphics lull you into a false sense of security. Forecasts are just forecasts, they are not hindsight. They are a guide you can use, but know things can change fast in the tropics. A week to 10 days ago people were discussing whether we'd even get a named storm in June and how long it'd take til we get one in July. If the forecast verifies there will have been 2 named storms in June.  Don't be that person. Be prepared! Stay prepared!! Don't eat the Twinkies from your Hurricane Supplies because you're get a craving for chocolate cake while watching movies at Midnight. Just don't. Leave the Hurricane Supplies alone! 

I'll discuss down the tropical road tomorrow on Sunday while I wait for thunderstorms to achieve their maximum height before dumping more rain on Raleigh and Durham that had wild storms today and then the temperatures lowers down a bit and I'm happy for the rain as it allows the temperatures to slide back down to hot but not tropical. Will NC see a tropical system this year? I'm not much of a gambler, but I would take that bet. And, as for Florida it's most likely so follow your favorite people such as Mike and me and anyone else you enjoy paying attention. Find your local NWS site online and become familiar with it as you should be with the NHC page that offers more than their blue screen with odds of development. NHC works hard for the money all day, 24 hours a day even while you are sleeping.

Click the blue link on your screen.

Scroll down ....

See how much is being monitored.

And as for the Gulf.

Worry more on how hot the water is...

..then how people spell it.

While words may matter....

...the temperature  matters more!

And, it's currently hot!

Ready for action!!

As @iCyclone shows above in this post on X.

It's hot close in.

Close in development.

Home Grown.... 

Don't eat the Twinkies!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X.. mostly weather there.

Elsewhere.......whatever and weather 

yes i do love this CD 

Long intro... have patience ;)

Updated Recon Set to Go Into Invest 91L on Saturday. Tagged Near the Yucatan. Could It Become Barry? Flossie May Be Forming in the EPAC. Keep Watching.

Nice image posted on X

You can make out the bones of 91L

Over land

Tho there's much convection over water.

Recon is scheduled to go in tomorrow...

...should they decide to do that.

Big white gray blobs blow....

..show the power there already.

Needs to move out over water.

Putting this out here regarding models.

91L BOC system into Mexico

so it would go ...in theory.

Isn't Mike great?

Also there are some models tracks....

...for a system that could form later.

Again from the Gulf ... then off FL

SE close to the coast.

This is the set up I talk on ...

..home grown near Florida.

Could happen. 

More on that Sunday...

Have a good weekend!

Besos BobbiStorm

*** 

4 PM

Updated here before I hit send.

Life happens in real time.

This is now Invest 91L

Current image below.

This is definitely a developing situation.

The rest of the blog was just written.

Before I could hit send it was tagged 91L

As I said at the end of this blog.

Life happens in real time.

Remember that.....

...especially in the tropics.

 Keep reading.

Compare and contrast this current image...

...with the one below from last night.

What could be Barry is bulking up!

30% now in 7 days - 20% in 2 days.

Earthnull changed a lot in 12 hours.

Nothing there last night... 

Definitely trying to impress.

Center trying to develop and close off.

Impressive.

Notice the West Atlantic Sat....

...shows part of the EPAC and Carib.

Again it's one region.

From this perspective.

Rarely when you have two systems that close together do they both develop. They can, they do but usually one grabs the energy and runs with it like when the opposing team fumbles the ball and they run for the endzone while the Running Back tries to get up and figure out what happened.  Hard to say. The clouds that arc around Invest 95E in the EPAC go all the way around our area of interest and they seem to take turns pulsing up and pulsing down. Invest 95E should become Flossie... our blob near the Yucatan may also develop or not and either way it'll most likely be a weather maker!

EURO for Sunday.

Euro has been more bullish on this...

GFS just sees Flossie.

Bit of wind and rain in BOC.

Wind filter above.

Rain and Tstorms below.

Both GFS

Truth is lots of intangibles.

Getting complicated!!

My best advice is for you to be prepared when Hurricane Season comes alive suddenly in the Atlantic and the EPAC is done going through the alphabet ;)   Seriously.......   July 4th is a great time to stock on up Hurricane Food, snacks and drinks.......as they are all on sale for July 4th as what you snack on while watching the fireworks is what you could be snacking on while hunkering down for Hurricane Dexter way down the tropical road. Some stores put the July 4th stuff on sale afterwards so grab some paper goods in good ole USA colors!!

Let the NHC do the driving and sit back and enjoy the ride. Easy to say as we are all far from any interaction with what could be Barry if Flossie doesn't steal all the energy.

Have a good weekend. 

I'll update Saturday Night and or Suday.

Again.........watch the Upper Gulf Coast and pay attention to the wave train it's looking more like Tropical Waves and less like meandering remnants of waves through a dry, dusty Atlantic because of Saharan Dust.

Oh check that out.

Newest wave off Africa higher.

Coming off by Dakar Senegal!

Usually that happens in late August.

Stay Tuned.

Maybe we will have Barry...

..maybe not. 

But this is a feisty fighter.

It's also possible....

One part goes into the BOC

Another part moves up into the Gulf.

Seems to have a desire to be vertical!

My gut feeling is this isn't just about the BOC.

But that's just a feeling.

It could be gas.......

Breaking News!

As I'm writing in real time....

...we now have Invest 91L

Bit of an escalation in interest going on here.

Adding details at the top....

...and publishing this the way it is.

Life happens in real time...

Stay tuned.......

2 areas to watch in one invest.

2 Invests.

Do we get 2 storms?

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

Maybe they are dancing.

Flirting???