Hurricane Harbor: TD 2 Forms in BOC! Invest 95E Still an Invest in EPAC! TD2 Forecast by NHC to be TS Barry! Don't Let Your Guard Down When You See "Nothing for 7 Days"

Well that happened today!

TD2 just cradled there in the BOC.

I did expect it to be a red circle.

Recon went in and we now have TD2

That escalated fast!

NHC forecast it to become Barry.

Love this image from Zoom Earth

Really spectacular site!

Earthnull shows how close to land it is.

Interaction with land is a small issue.

You can see TD2 in the BOC

Invest 95E in the East Pacific.

Lots of moisture in this part of the Atlantic.

Even a feisty wave fighting shear in the Carib.

I spoke about this yesterday that both systems are part of the same general CAG area...hovering on either side of the narrowest part of Mexico. It's hard for both to develop at the same time as always one can inhibit the other depending on various factors. Invest 95E is at 90% for development in 7 days and 80% in 2 days. 95E is spread out as you can see and struggling, but it should get there soon. TD2 has had a beautiful shape on various imagery and was and is more compelling. TD2 is close to land and your typical BOC sudden "pop" up system that shuffles off to Mexico. One models brings it in a bit higher, but I think it's safe to say you can all be singing Mexico by Jimmy Buffet with this one. Official Cone below!

Official cone for our "shorty" storm!

The lesson I want you to take away here is this:

This is a list of my recent blogs.

On June 20th I wrote that the NHC says nothing for 7 days in the Atlantic. I put the caveat up in the blog that June is known for Pop Up storms ... "surprise" Home Grown systems that form suddenly close in to the coast. I mentioned the BOC, I mentioned areas off the coast of Florida and dead frontal boundaries in the Gulf that always need watching. Two days later on the 22nd of June I posted the new area of interest that was yellow in the Atlantic off the Florida coast that went on to become Andrea our first named Atlantic Storm shortly after that. Later in the week we began talking on an area in the BOC that is now Tropical Depression Two! There is still current discussion on a tropical drama close in that may start in the Gulf but not stay in Gulf in the not so distant future, time as always will tell the real story. So do not get complacent when nothing is forecast to develop in the next 7 days.

The reason I bring this up is not to make fun of the NHC as they do the best they can and also discuss areas in the Atlantic they are watching that doesn't make the hit parade on the news. People go online to their site and look to see if there's a yellow lemon suddenly placed on their pretty blue screen on their main page. Or they just wait to get some notice in their social media feed and then they seem surprised and sometimes annoyed. There's always something out there being monitored by the NHC for any signs of possible development. Models can be "OMG awesome" or "worse than trash" if you follow social media hysterics online by frustrated storm chasers in the depths of quiet June. June too soon becomes busy and that is my point here.

Do not let the NHC "Nothing for 7 Days" graphics lull you into a false sense of security. Forecasts are just forecasts, they are not hindsight. They are a guide you can use, but know things can change fast in the tropics. A week to 10 days ago people were discussing whether we'd even get a named storm in June and how long it'd take til we get one in July. If the forecast verifies there will have been 2 named storms in June. Don't be that person. Be prepared! Stay prepared!! Don't eat the Twinkies from your Hurricane Supplies because you're get a craving for chocolate cake while watching movies at Midnight. Just don't. Leave the Hurricane Supplies alone!

I'll discuss down the tropical road tomorrow on Sunday while I wait for thunderstorms to achieve their maximum height before dumping more rain on Raleigh and Durham that had wild storms today and then the temperatures lowers down a bit and I'm happy for the rain as it allows the temperatures to slide back down to hot but not tropical. Will NC see a tropical system this year? I'm not much of a gambler, but I would take that bet. And, as for Florida it's most likely so follow your favorite people such as Mike and me and anyone else you enjoy paying attention. Find your local NWS site online and become familiar with it as you should be with the NHC page that offers more than their blue screen with odds of development. NHC works hard for the money all day, 24 hours a day even while you are sleeping.