A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, December 29, 2023
Where's the Weather? Lots of Places.......IF NOT BY YOU........Wait a While It'll Find You in 2024!!
Strong waves in California. Ventura California.
Ventura, the city not the road in LA, has a beautiful beach.
Cove like beach. I know it well.
Long time readers here know I lived in LA for a long time back when and my Aunt lived in Santa Barbara so we used to drive up there once in a while to visit and Ventura is a landmark of sorts to me.
California coastline is beautiful!
Best ride ver down Pacific Coast Highway...
..from Santa Barbara to LA
By way of Malibu at sunset!
Note the huge feed slamming into California
Then the bright blue line up from EPAC ...
...into Florida.
This set up in California not going away.
As for the East Coast.
If you want snow.
Go to West Virginia!
This is from Mitch West Weather.
He's a friend and he's good at what he does.
Or wait til the snow comes to you!
This was an image Weatherman Plus showed.
Someone I enjoy following on YouTube
Canadian model I believe.
Yes it shows me what I want to see...
...but Canadian model should know winter wxr ;)
I'm not desperate but I am needy LOL snow wise!
We are not a week into Winter and I've heard "weather is boring this year" and "weather is a no show this year" and these are the same voices that tell people not to worry on hurricane season as it's June and July and nothing has formed and then some Andrew like storm forms in August. That's what happens when you get fog instead of snowflakes. And, yet the fog the other day was so pervasive that not only was the South socked in.... it went up the East Coast in places to Cape Cod! Fog blanketed India and in Turkey there was a horrific pile up of cars. Not sure I've seen a fog event across such a large part of the world.
Weather is generally locational, I always say that. Winter has shown it's face in areas that get an early winter. I lived in NYC and there are years you wait and wait through December and into January and mid January it snows and there's diry, crusty snow and frozen ponds in parking lots for weeks after that. My 2 year old grandson in Hollywood, Florida had recess on a balcony looking out today at a flooded parking lot, they had a lesson in "rain" and sang "rain songs" LOL but it's good to go with the flow sometimes.
Let's wait until February 2024 before we call the whole thing off :)
Have a great weekend!
Enjoy Life!
Party or rest or do whatever you like doing the most on New Year's Eve!
Will most likely post on Sunday but in case I'm busy or you'll busy... have a wonderful new year.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
I remember the first time I downloaded a satellite loop onto my old fashioned PC and was in awe!! A NASA NOAA site was on my monitor (even if it took forever to load) and I can still here the AOL sound that played while the lil running man ran and I prayed it would connect. I remember writing letters to friends who lived in a different city and I now have 8 messages from various kids wishing me Good Shabbos and Happy Birthday on my phone as I type a post to send on my laptop. Photos of grandchildren on a phone I rarely ever use to make a phone call but to check my Twitter.
Hoping for revealed miracles, good times and health for those I love in 2024!
Weather on the Move.......... Winter Returns! If U Go to Key West This Weekend Pack the Socks & a Sweater. Cold Someone in the South Get Surprise Snow Flakes??? And, in the MTNS SNOW January Winter Storm Possibilities!!
System in the East on the Move
Tapping into GOM energy
Phil Ferro shows that could be a problem.
It will be a problem.
It is a problem.
Dry air is pushing into the GOM
But it leads with severe weather
Wind......
Cold Weekend.
Cold for Floridians
We do so love to wear our Winter clothes.
We live in hoodies as the AC is kept cold
But once it dips below 60...
...that's frigid weather in South Florida.
Further up the road in Tampa
It'll be in the 40s.
Fire Pit weather there!!
So in theory the fog in Raleigh where I actually live is forecast to move out and the sun may be visible later today. It was a cold fog, not a picturesque fog in Santa Monica obscuring the end of the pier. I lived there in the previous century (haha my Grandma Mary used to say that referring to that time before she was born...) but it's true it was a long time ago. I know fog, I've seen it roll in at warp speed the back yard disapearing in real time!! And, honestly fog is popular in the Carolinas in December. The first time I drove into NC in December with my then fiance and youngest daughter and a friend we drove through vague, heavy fog from North Florida all the way into North Carolina. I drove into Charlotte with my then fiance and couldn't see the city until the sun rose the next morning. In December we wait for snow, we wish for snow and we get fog and stuck cold fronts that don't want to go anywhere... like of like a sleepy old bear that wants to be left alone.
As for next week and snow possibilities, they are there though some may get a few surprise flakes in the south this weekend. Fast moving system once the cut off low, the upper level low that has been stuck in the middle of the country makes some sort of tango like moves and then races off and out to sea...up the coast, away, gone. And, then there's all the speculation about snow caused my models that seem to want snow as much as the rest of us do.
North Carolina is a funny place, it's divided between the locals who enjoy snow and all the people who moved up from Florida who shop at Publix (now here) and expecting to get snow flakes every year! Then there's the people from Up North (places like NY Boston Buffalo) who move down "South" but missed the part about it being NORTH Carolina and get all pissy when it snows as they thought they were getting warm tropical weather...........I always wonder did they not research this well??? Like why not move down to Jacksonville, Florida if you want snowless winters?? They complain... "kvetch" (something New Yorkers do regardless of their religion it's a demographic thing.... that snow is falling from the sky. They want Spring and Fall but NOT Winter.
I want Winter.
Watching Cantore do his thing this morning and he's on the money and enjoying himself with actual weather to talk about as he shows people who to read the water vapor loop! He's a National Treasure and pretty much the only reason I still watch TWC when in a mood like I am today. Love the way he knows geography and maps too!
If you're going to Key West this weekend.
Grab some sweaters and socks!
After a very cold winter in Raleigh, I went down to Miami in February probably to meet with teachers as I still had 2 kids in high school down there living with family and I ran down to Key West for a night to hang out with my friends.... "to wake up in Key West" as Stuart would say when he'd cajole me to drive down with him as he was going home to what felt like my second home at times and visit Tom who lived by the Gulf not far from where Jimmy Buffett once did.... I woke up, grabbed some change for a cafecito and my phone to take sunrise photos and "OH MY GOD IT WAS FREEZING" and suddenly I realized I had no socks... a light weight hoodie I lived in everywhere I went but no socks. Wandered around trying to buy a pair of socks while I was out wandering around. I spent a crazy fortune in CVS or 7-11 for a pair of "winter socks" lol and I never made that mistake again. I miss Tom and Stuart... they both passed away too young from cancer. Cancer Sucks.
Key West is awesome in any weather.....but if it's a cold winter.... trust me, pack some socks! You're toes will be freezing ... if you are wearing flip flops!
37 degrees tonight in Raleigh! Love it! Clear Skies. Pawley's Island is my new Key West up in the Carolinas.
Updated 4 PM Blizzard Warnings in South Dakota.... Fog in the South.... Thunderstorms Tonight in Carolinas? How Long Til We See SNOW?? Stay Tuned.
This week's storm is a photogenic Low swirling about out in the Plains about to make strange moves towards the East Coast...dipping down, possibly making a small loop before moving on out to sea. Add in moisture down near Florida will move up towards the Carolinas (much like a tropical system but NOT a tropical system) possibly form a low and hook up with our Westbound system now out over the Plains and move on towards Canada similar to the 2023 Hurricane Season.
Looking at the visible imagery below....
The low spinning there is impressive.
South of the low is a large flow of moisture.
The Southern Jet aided by the El Nino.
Pumps up moisture across the GOM....
..where it meets up with the moisture off of FL
Timing is everything.
How they interact, fuse together.
This is not expected to bring snow to the Carolinas, though it's possible in the mountain areas of GA, SC and NC there could be snow as elevation is everything when it comes to rain turning to snow. But, it's a long shot to get anything else in the piedmont or along the beaches of the Carolinas. The NWS in discussion talks on a problem with timing and how the system is moving slower than expected. And this is my issue with events such as this in that they evolve in real time and often timing is off and if so all those various models you looked at on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are no longer reliable. That said there is always one model showing a flurry of fast moving...flurries!
This is not a hurricane .........
It's a winter storm that brought a blizzard to South Dakota.
This is for Wilmington, NC
Models slowing down.
Hanging back a bit.
Panhandle of Okalhoma watching it.
It was supposed to rain today in Raleigh, early in the morning. Still nothing falling from the sky at 4 PM. Happens commonly, timing is hard to pin down in this region. And, we do have a drought!
I'm currently talking about this week's storm, but worrying on next week storm is even further down the road. It's still December and the temperatures are playing the flip flop, see saw game they often do this time of year. A night or two of freezing temps and then warm air comes in from the South and the heat is no longer needed and you actually crack open the windows some for it to bit to cool off. May I say reverse cycle AC is a wonderful thing round these parts of the country.
Short tem models show thunderstorms tonight.
(Count 10 days til snow...)
(old saying...)
Let's see if tonight's forecast verifies!!
www.windy.com
A LOW is forecast to form off the coast.
Moisture surge moving N off the coaset of FL.
And the Winter Low goes where hurricanes went.
Eventually....towards Canada, out to sea.
2023 is not over.
One last stormy punch.
Let's look further down the road.........
.... Early January 2024. January 2nd!
A low is centered over my house.
Much will change.
It's a week away.
And today's forecast didn't verify.
So not relying on ones for 10 days from now.
Or even a week from now.
Dreams are just dreams.
But they are for snow.
Sooner rather than later.
It always helps to have cold air in place.
Bottom line the Low will make it's move in it's own time once it moves onshore from the Pacific!
Next week's low is out there, waiting and we are waiting to see what it'll do. Actually there are a few lows out there as we head into the heart of Winter.
Stay tuned... keep reading.
YouTube told me this was one of my most played songs.
Yes, that is true.
It just began playing out of nowhere.
Now I hear it in my sleep (oh my gosh)
Good song.
* * * *
10 AM below........
We see 2 things here.
2 eyes so to speak
One is a Winter Storm... a blizzard!
The other stretches from the South...
Takes I-10 to I-95 N bound!
Lots of moisture... fog, rain, clouds
Possible Thunderstorms tonight!
Faith is being tested in SD today!
Subtropical Blizzard?
New Flavor at Dairy Queen ;)
Seriously and it's on the move...
...dipping down from the Dakotas!
Depending on where you live you either think Mother Nature dealt you a hard difficult hand this morning or there is no weather to speak of going on today. Weather is location, ethnocentric even as most people look at the Weather Map with blinders on ...only looking at where they live. Sometimes they check their parent's location or children's location or the location they wish to visit later in the week. In the South snow did not show up for the holidays, and many cities are socked in with fog or very low gauzy white clouds as well all await the weather we were promised would arrive on Tuesday in my part of the world.
If you are driving somewhere tonight along I-95 from the South to the North or from the North to the South or some place nearby on some branch off road.... be careful, beware of the weather. Stay informed.
Bye Bye Hurricane Season & Fall ... Winter on the Way! Does It Really Snow Within 10 Days of Thunder in the Winter?
I think it's safe to say....
...Hurricane Season is Over.
Cold Air Diving DOWN
Towards Panama....
Yes Odd feature in Atlantic.
Front on steroids and a big swirl.
There was once a director at the NHC a while back that had a strange late season fetish for systems out near Portugal. But we have moved on and I have moved on so much I'm watching for snow possibilities, a chance beyond freezing my butt off at 2 AM staring up up into the night hoping to see a few stray snowflakes mixed in with rain illuminated by a streetlight in the darkness. That ship has sailed! Been there, done that and not doing it again and I mean really not doing that again.
I'm in Savannah, one of my favorite places in the whole darn world, awake and unable to sleep but in a good mood and decided to write early as I don't have to wait until the first morning visible. Which is good as when the sun gets up I'll be out exploring, staring at hanging moss which my Grandma Mary called Spanish Moss which is actually a distant relative of pineapples (go figure) and I'm a distant relative of Benjamin Sheftall who arrived in Savannah in 1733! It's obviously a long story. Nuff said, but happy to be here and yet still obsessing over when it may or may not snow in Raleigh.
Years ago when the Internet began.
I'd type into the brower:
www.timeanddate.com
Looking for the sunrise time.
I'm talking Nautical Sunrise.
Not just any ole sunrise.
I'm sure one of my writer friends or stalker friends suggested it as Google was not a thing then and my notebook was filled with weblinks scribbeled down carefully mostly with satellite imagery links. Nothing like watching Nautical Sunrise, being there for Twilight and waiting for the sun to come up shining. But, nowdays the site offers everything but dinner by Uber and as I didn't look it might be offering that as well. Above is the 14 day weather for Raleigh, to be taken with huge amounts of Maldon Smoked Sea Salt Flakes.... as opposed to snowflakes. It shows THUNDER on December 28th and when you hear thunder in the winter you count 10 days til snow flakes fall from the sky. Yes, that's a thing in the Carolinas!
There is actually a science to it. Let's say there's a pattern developing that will eventually produce a more than 50% chance of snow once the cold weather sets in and for snow lovers that's we take it. Better than flushing ice cubes down the toilet which is a child's way of hoping for snow. Link below on the "within 10 days it'll snow" theory. We can talk about the El Nino hyping up the Southern Jet another time along with Miller A, Miller B and even Miller C storms later as we get into real winter.
Anyway..... the seemingly endless wind event in Miami finally ended, the sun came out and I got to enjoy a sunrise and blue skies as I was leaving town. I had a wonderful time at the Barbie Party after trying to wrap a large present with bright pink wrapping paper on the hood of a car in the wind. Needless to say while it was a good present it was for sure the worst wrapped present ever!
December Hybrid Storm Makes "Landfall" Near Where Idalia Did! Moving Fast. Serving Snow in Carolina Mtns on It's Back Side! Wild Stormy Night in S FL Last Night!
This No Name Storm made landfall...
...close to where Idalia did!
Seems the area is ripe for weather this year!
For brevity purposes here I'm showing a YouTube video below that I made of the Mimic Loop that always shows moisture content... this is a moisture laden Hybrid December Storm that also carries storm surge, high winds, severe weather and after it moves North fast there will be snow on the back side in the mountains of the Carolinas. It's not the easiest sort of storm to forecast nor was it an easy storm to explain to the public. It's hard to convey the proper message needed to for peopel to prepare as it formed in real time and is a large, swirling, mass of dangerous weather. The NWS has had low confidence all week in it's forecast regarding who would get the worst of it and where it might even form and in the end it did form further North in the Gulf of Mexico making "landfall" if you can call it that North of Tampa yet serving storm surge last night along many low lying, beautiful beach towns.
Mike was out storm chasing as usual.
Regarding the storm surge from the Hybrid Storm...
Byran Bennett notes it was the 4th highest on recod.
Hurricane Idalia was higher but 4th place is huge.
Video of the Mimic...
Showing moisture and where it's going.
And it IS on the move !!
It doesn't have an eye.
It doesn't have a track.
It didn't have a Cone.
But it was the talk of the South all week!
3/4 of a Subtropical Storm ;)
Not enough to get a name.
Note how it's clearing out fast.
Winds are very strong on the back side.
So the clouds will finally go away
But the wild weather will stay....
a while longer.
Screenshot of my laptop last night...
...as I went to bed.
I fell asleep listening to the rain.
Heavy rain, thunder, lightning.
Stormy night ;)
Should be a windy day here later.
I was in Walnut Creek area over Shabbos (Saturday) ...it's a community filled with creeks, canals and lakes somewhere between Pemboke Pines and Hollywood, Florida where my oldset son lives and 3 other children live close by as well. Shabbos was nice, as I had some quality time with kids and grandkids who I don't often see and my best friend Sharon's daughter was here with her husband and 3 girls. Sharon passed away last year, we were best friends, we storm chased, partied and raised our kids together like one large quasi family at times. So spending time with her daughter was incredible and our granddaughters are best friends. Kind of wild. Life goes on. Sharon would have loved the wild weather yesterday as we watched trees twisting and shaking as if it was a tropical storm and rain came down in torrents into the lake behind the house as we ate lunch.
Today I'm going to a Barbie Birthday Party for my 6 year old granddaughter Oliva! Yes, I have a dress with Barbie Pink Flowers on it! And, an appropriate pink looking gift! I get to see my oldest daughter Shayna there who is as much of a friend as a daughter and one of the best Aunt's a lil girl like Olivia can have. I'll also see several of the kids, grandkids and some of Olivia's friends. Tonight I'll be at a "end of the year party" given by my son Levi in the Grove near where I grew up!
And then............in theory...........we are leaving tomorrow morning, back on the road to the Carolina and where I will be watching, waiting for any signs of Winter Weather.
My birthday is just before New Years... would be nice to see snow!
We will see what 2024 brings, but for now 2023 is still raging and I have places to go and people to see.
I'll update later when a good visible image of the No Name Hybrid Storm is out... it'll be good to be out of the rain.
Developing Storm in GOM - Florida Wind Event of 2023 - Transforms Into Winter Storm Up North? It'll Be Remembered as That Storm in December of 2023 Over Time.
This is the culprit on Florida Radar.
This massive moisture feed Eastbound from GOM
ENE ish.
It's a nonstop surge ....
...and winds are blowing here non stop
Storm has not formed.
Again this is a Wind Event.
Pressure Gradient
This is Sunday
Low is centered over Florida.
Forms .... and on the move.
(woohoo)
The story is this...after reading much NWS Discussion and looking at models.............no one is sure what will be down to exact details. It's evolving the way a Winter Storm evolves in real time, it's got a huge georgraphic signature currently like some sort of quasi hybrid storm or as we currently say a "Wind Event" but getting from A to B is a process ... a work in process. And from B to C (Up North Winter part) will be handed off to winter experts.
@ContentWxGuy formerly known as Cranky.
Posts on X formerly known as Twitter.
Time will tell is the bottom line.
Once we move into real Winter...
Things should change.
This is like an early solstice storm
Tho Mother Nature may have another trick
up her sleeve
Stay tuned.
Going out...things to do...things to see in my black Victoria Secret's Hoodie over my clothes into the Wind Storm :) The party at the Yacht Club on the water on the bay is moved to a new wonderful location pretty and party like and protected from the wind and any possible storms. I'm not really sure any NWS forecast has nailed this down perfectly .... because.....as they mention if it is further South it will have stronger direct impacts in South Florida but it could also slam into the Tampa area but really does any storm do that?
There will be no pink Bounce House at the Barbie Birthday Party earlier on Sunday for Miss Olivia ...
The storm should move out after the weekend.
I'll be on the road again Monday/Tuesday so.....will catch it once it's on the move again.
Heard some great news while here .... friend's son is engaged so there's a wedding coming up. Saw my kids last night (some) and if anyone shows me another donut (Chanukah food) after Sunday I'll puke. Honest, pure and simple. This reminds me of when we sold Krispy Kreme Glazed Donuts as a Fundraiser in High School which made money but made me not eat a glazed donut for at least 20 years..... I feel that way again! I don't care if it's purple with edible glitter or an edible pansy, no more donuts.
Gale Force Low Forming? A Low is Forming? Where and When Dictates Who Gets What. NHC Not Blinking Yet.... NWS Covers It. Find Your Expert and Enjoy the Weather....
From Zoom Earth.....
...now Zoomed In
Florida socked in under cloud cover.
An old front is stalled out.
Normally this is where I'd ask what often forms at the tail end of an old frontal boundary. You'd all say "a low pressure system" or a "hurricane" and the answer this time is yes a low pressure system, a LOW forms. Could it be tropical? There might be a line in Vegas on the odds but there is a chance but it's a slim chance and once this Low forms it will zoom North fast. But between now and then it's going to be a whole lotta rain for Florida and that includes the Florida Keys so if you booked a trip to see the holiday lights on the palm trees on Duval Street know it also floods there when it rains heavy so... sorry about that. Go inside Margaritaville and have a drink and listen to the music and pretend it doesn't look like a tropical storm outside. There's probably a Tropical Storm drink you can order on the menu ;)
This is Saturday and Sunday.
Where this Low sets up is everything.
But still everyone gets rain.
Rain vs Gale Force Gusts and Squalls??
Which is it?
Then down the road the cold front goes through.
And it gets cold.
Northern end of this system gets it's own weather.
Location dictates the type of impacts.
Red is not a good color here.
Hoping S FL sees less.
I want to see the weather and feel it.
Especially by the water, the clouds.
I want to see squalls and sheets of rain.
But also want to hang out a bit outside.
Time will tell.
On the road again as the song goes. Not in Miami for a long time, long enough to see the storm and hopefully various kids, grandkids and friends. My kids are vibrant, busy and don't all live in one area as some live out in the suburbs built around cute little lakes that used to be part of the Everglades in Broward... others live closer in to I95 in Hallendale/Hollywood that is now mostly young artsy types vs the elderly Canadian Snow Birds of my youth. Then some live down by the river downtown by the bay and Coral Gables. I'm a moving target when in South Florida.
As for the evolution of the No Name Storm aka LOW (with gusty, gale force winds) cruising along with a free trip ticket from El Nino juicing up the Southern Jet.... if you live there and want to know what will happen to you then it's best to listen to your local experts. I say this often, it's true they know which areas usually flood or what your specific impacts will be.
Online hypesters will scream HURRICANE FORCE LOW or WILD WEATHER IN WALDO FLORIDA and I'm not saying there won't be wild weather and I'll remind you the No Name Storm had tropical storm force intensity in places but follow your local NWS, your local weather experts and pay attention in real time to alerts from your weather apps. If you follow me you have weather apps.
Next 12 hours in Central Florida.
That's where I'll be for a while.
As I said in this Tweet or Post whichever you prefer. Mike from Mikes Weather Page covers it all, but he's in the Tampa area and pays close attention to local weather there, Eric Burris is in Central Florida he does an online Morning update as well. Phil Ferro is my go to expert in the Miami/FLL area and my buddy Dabuh lives in Jax but if you can decipher his musical mystery clues you'll see the whole wide picture and get some good music along the way. He is my personal Music Man for sure....
I'll be on the road today and down in South Florida later today through the weekend, watching weather and seeing family and friends.
Lastly regarding the NHC they as of now are not following this and would in theory only do so if it looked as if it might become tropical or even subtropical. When you go to their page as seen below, don't just leave as there's nothing there but click on the Gulf of Mexico and it'll bring up options you can put in with various parameters for wind, surf, gusts, etc....it's a wonderful array of choices and many people don't click on the link to that hidden treasure.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
