A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, June 30, 2021
Elsa forming. Watching the Cone From Myrtle Beach.
Cone at the bottom
Read first. Or peek at the cone ;)
For now… the cone cuts thru the Florida Keys. Low confidence on the end game. Tomorrow where will it be?
Tropical Storm Elsa is in the process of forming. The NHC to provide the utmost amount of early warning to the islands now issues potential tropical cyclone warnings. There is much certainty in the short term yet the long term depends on many factors still uncertain. The strength of the ridge, where and when the weakness develops and how strong Elsa will be. Each of these factors evolve in real time and can influence the others. The long term cone reminds area’s potentially in the path. Think of it as a visual reminder that bye Hurricane Season.
I’m in Myrtle Beach with my daughter. We went to the beach. We walked on the boardwalk. We walked in the ocean. We got drinks by the boardwalk. We checked into our hotel and went swimming in the beautiful pool. We had Israeli food for dinner (awesome) came back and watched sunset at Broadway on the Beach. We went to Fat Tuesday for drinks. I had a hurricane… of course. Talked to some nice people. Walked back to our room thru Margaritaville. It’s been a long day. And I watched loops all day because what will be Elsa is interesting.
We watched a press conference from Miami in the pool. Life is complicated these days. You gotta do what you gotta do. But you gotta squeeze the lemons get some juice out and make margaritas with them!
And you gotta do what you gotta do and that’s take hurricane season seriously!!! Be hurricane strong. Not the ones with 180 proof rum but the ones with batteries, canned foods and any medicine you need before the cone snaps back over you!!
Watching the cone…
Besos BobbiStorm from Myrtle Beach. I found 3 shark teeth. One perfect!!
Elsa in the Making .. 97L Now at 80% Cruising into the GOM ... Cuba? Then Florida and GOM Need to Watch
80%
Definitely gets the name Elsa......
Caribbean bound short term.
Long term ...where does it pull North?
The lead wave is 95L the old huge wave.
The one that wet up the atmosphere for 97L
This is how pairs of waves work in tandem often.
The big star shaped wave is ...the star of the show.
Where 95L had a big broad center.
97L is tightening up fast.
Models change from run to run.
Short term consistent.
The Islands are in for a blow.
Long term... Cuba and then ????
I'll update at some point later. Going to the beach today with my daughter who is in town visiting. Watching the wave but in truth Elsa will show us what she is going to do.
How strong does she get?
Strength matters.
Size matters.
Those answers are down the road but the one answer we have today is... this is most likely Elsa and sooner rather than later at the rate it's going. Waves that barrel through Saharan Dust need to be watched carefully.
97L Chasing 95L 60% Chances It Develops in the 5 Day.
97L 60% chances.
It's got a look, it's spinning.
There are two Invests being monitored but 97L has come on strong today. It has rudimentary banding features setting up into place and what could be... could be... a core. It has a look. The models like it, though the models like 95L too but 97L seems to have a better environment, more moisture to work with after the huge, gigantic 95L wave juiced up the atmosphere for it. Will see but worth a late night post.
Midnight.
It may not look like much to you but it does to me.
97L is getting that look.
Center stage above.
60% chances in 5 days.
That could be higher by the time you read this.
97L seems a bit pushy here.
I'll be updating tomorrow as warrants.
By morning I'd think it might be Red if this continues.
Thanks for your patience as I have been offline more than on following news from Surfside and waiting for news for a good friend who is missing in the rubble. Tonight I found out one woman who taught my mother is safe and was not there but found out my daughters' algebra teacher died in the rubble, the woman with the Penthouse with the office chair hovering at the edge of the broken building.
For those who do not know, I worked at Champlain Towers South in early 1997 managing the office. I didn't stay long, but long enough to get to know people. I have a good friend who I was my neighbor on Miami Beach who is missing in the rubble with her husband; I'm good friends with many of her siblings it's just a tangled web of close relations and it's been a difficult time for all of us.
Understand when you read about "the reports" that many of the building's tenants were tenants who rented from the owners who were often out of the country. The owners got the letters most of the tenants who rented were told they would be working on the roof and the pool area, etc. Many beautiful older people bought condos there years ago to live out their golden years and while they were more comfortable than many lived on a fixed budget and in their 80s and 90s finding money or taking out a 2nd mortgage to pay over $100,000 for assessments wasn't a piece of cake and many already sent in money.
Don't believe everything you read in the paper and wait for the facts to be totally assembled including any we don't know currently at this time. As much as I understand I do believe some important fact is missing from the equation currently.
From a TROPICAL perspective we are entering a busy hurricane season with models that flirt with Florida on every other run. The thought that South Florida could deal with a landfalling storm of any magnitude right now while the work is going on during the rainy season under already difficult condition and the standing building is unstable ... use your imagination how much this could hurt the process of looking for survivors and pulling body parts out of the rubble as in many cases there are people who will not be found in one piece. Just being honest. Crappy timing for hurricane season to start spitting out tropical waves that seem to want to make it into the Caribbean and aim for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
All you need to know now is.........there are viable waves trying to go the distance and in a few days it's July and it's not going to be too early for a Bertha like storm to form out where few rarely do this time of year. And the high is large and the weather is hot and with every hot day the water temperatures will climb higher and conditions will be riper.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Intagram
I feel like 97L is telling 95L "I can do anything better than you!" and perhaps it can...
Invest 95L & 97L Cruising Towards the Caribbean. Will They Survive and Threaten the Islands. Could Happen. Either Way Be Prepared Because the Tropics Are Warming UP!!
Florida, dealing with the long term struggle to recover bodies from a mountain of rubble in Surfside is now within range of long term models for both Invest 95L and 97L. It must be the beginning of the real Hurricane Season and time is of the essence in Surfside. I can't imagine how even a small hurricane would set back that process. Hurricane Season comes whether it's a good time or a bad time, it's simply hurricane time!
So we have two Invests 95L and 97L with zones of development that overlap as seen above.
20% is in the short term....
Models this far out are iffy. They show a pattern, they show where the High is expected to be and where the wave could be and they change from model run to model run from day to day. The GFS shows a wave getting into the Caribbean, to Cuba and moving up towards Florida but into the GOM. Next model run might show it dying over Haiti and the Dominican Republic or falling apart over Cuba. Or next model run could put Florida in the cross hairs. This is long term modeling and the wave has not developed yet into anything more than a wave.
The high is HUGE.
I've been saying that for days herel.l
SAL is there yet it's allowing the waves thru.
So what do we do?
Models are models. I'd rather hug a meteorologist... than a model!!
(attempt at humor here)
I'll update tomorrow. What you need to do is get a plan, make a back up plan (small hurricane vs big hurricane) and hope that the hurricanes this year veer away from land and don't do much damage. But trust me wishing doesn't make it so .... so prepare in case a hurricane wants to come and visit you there!
Updated ... TS Danny - Charleston in Cross Hairs. Forecast to Be Danny. TS Warnings Posted! Whole Region Subject to Strong Weather Before Center Crosses Land. It's Complicated. 95L Potential Trouble IF Is Survives... Can Thrive Close In.
3:30 PM
Also NHC upped 95L to orange 40%
New track a bit to the South.
Well formation zone....
...but all based on models.
Puts Haiti in play, then Cuba...
Then........ ???
Hmnnn... well still long range time wise.
Stay tuned.
Again recon will be collecting data...
* * *
Weather to the left. Center to the Right.
Winds will strengthen as it wraps up more.
Time will tell but stay prepared everywhere.
This is the Tropical Storm Warnings Map...
Again strong weather will be outside this zone.
A system like this is complicated because you MUST track the WEATHER associated with it and far removed from the "center" that the NHC is tracking and forecasting landfall. There are weather concerns with Tropical Depressions and Tropical Storms not limited to the cone and often far from the center.
The Problem with TD4.
Why is it so complicated?
Dark reds are far from the "center"
traveling further South than the cone.
Remember this was an Upper Level Low.
You can see that structure in the Mimic
Note the weather lacks a smooth trajectory moving towards Charleston that is getting all the hype, yet JAX in Florida to the South will get rain and a humid moisture sure will move towards all the Carolina Beaches. Kiawah, Georgetown all the way up to Myrtle Beach will see weather and down towards Jax in Florida. Then the moisture moves inland ... a cold front is approaching (I hope)
This whole area known as the Georgia Bight....
...is South of the Cone but in for weather.
Moisture in NE Florida and Georgia.
Moisture along South and North Carolina.
Messy beach day.
A day local chasers LOVE.
Watch local weather sources for your own area.
Every area here in the path has it's own priorities.
I'll update later on TD4 probably TS Danny.
But you can seriously watch it on radar.
Again the main point is below.
The problem is that much of the weather is removed from the center so it's important to look at this Tropical Depression, probably TS Danny, as a huge weather maker with a center that lags behind the slap in the face of heavy rain and localized street flooding. Charleston, in particular due to it's topography of lack of elevation. It's a another city built in a low lying area that had a harbor, bluffs and much of the land around it and included in it and Mt. Pleasant were and are basically low country with subdivisions built over them. It's a beautiful part of the world, but prone to problems when a tropical system makes landfall. In this case, the WEATHER is outrunning the CENTER. Down the road weather may wrap more but when they say it will arrive late this evening, know you're getting rain all day today and tomorrow.
From 10 AM below.
The image above really tells the story in that the neat circulation is visible to the East of the strongest convection seen in yellows and golds. The NHC will be beginning advisories as of 11 AM and a cone will be put out. Models are shown below so the cone will mostly follow the models and its close to land moving rapidly so there isn't much question in the short term where this goes and what it does.
Short term agreement on a landfall near Savannah.
Georgia and South Carolina borderlands.
Beautiful marsh, low country.
Prone to flooding in all the regular places.
What does it do inland more a question.
With elevation there's more problem with flooding.
Honestly this is the story of IF it survives it WILL THRIVE down the road, but can it make it? Let's put it this way, it's going to be a wonderful trip if it has the gas to get where it's going or it's going to run out of gas and breakdown far from any service station. It's either a real player or dead in the water. Dry air, wind shear and low water temperatures are not popular friends for a system in June in an ocean with a dry atmosphere, even a big pocket wave such as 95L yet being big the models love it still so only time will tell. At this point recon becomes a factor in both systems and so we will know more sooner rather than later.
I'll update this afternoon.
If you are traveling through this area unfamiliar with it do not get off the road and go sightseeing there could be localized flooding. If you are a local you know where it floods and what to do to avoid it. This is NOT a big Hurricane, but it is very possible I believe this general area may be visited by a hurricane later in the season. Perhaps Danny will put up good reviews on Yelp for future tropical travelers.
Stay tuned...
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps again... we are busy now with the small stuff but down the road we will have bigger fish to fry and bigger problems than a weak Tropical Storm. Below is one of my favorite Jimmy Buffett songs .
10 PM Updated. 50/50 Chances for 96L Close In Tropical Trouble at 50% 95L Atlantic Wave 30% Do They Develop? Which One Gets a Name? Short Term Watch the one Close In... But Keep Watching the Huge Wave. History on Miami Beach, Why History and Geography Matter But Is Often Ignored. Champlain Towers.
Late night thoughts.
8 PM 50/50 chances for development.
Many computer models do not handle small systems well and they especially do not handle small systems caught up in Upper Level Lows and this Invest has been dancing with Upper Level Lows from the beginning. It looks good, it doesn't look as good, it looks better again. It has uneven development and yet a chance at getting designation. The NHC will decide Monday morning what they want to do as it's moving fast towards a visit with the coast. Nothing huge should develop, but when you have low country and marsh in many places you can have flooding. Charleston, specifically, floods from a hard fast rain and there is beautiful low country in it's path and depending on the timing, tides it can make a small impact. Further off is our Atlantic wave that models like and again it's a big wave with a large pocket that also looks better and then not as good and then better again. A stubborn wave is a thing of beauty and can be a trouble maker down the road.
Currently 96L is an overachiever.
My goodness that's Savannah or bust!
Tybee Island or Georgetown SC?
Again u see a pattern here?
95L has been an underachiever but it's forecast to last.
The rest is discussion on the set up.
And some facts on Miami Beach History.
And how that may relate to Champlain Towers.
I'll update in the morning and see what NHC does re 96L
As for 95 L at some point recon will go in ...
Sweet Tropical Dreams... BobbiStorm
* * *
Update 2 PM
Invest 96L has higher chances of forming now.
I wouldn't ignore the GOM either. Heating up.
96L seems to be an overachiever.
The actual "center" is the C shaped yellow
to the West of the stronger convection.
It's trying to come together.
So Danny may form off the coast of the USA
Close in ...if so the wave could be Elsa.
Time will tell.
I'll update later.
Below is still valid info.
And some history of a tropical paradise below.
Thanks for your patience.
Hasn't been an easy few days for me.
Connect the yellow circles.
See a pattern.
Tracing the edge of the High Pressure.
Below you can see both systems being monitored.
We have two areas being monitored for development.
Close to the SE coast is a small mini swirl...
...far out in the Atlantic there is a huge wave.
Big and small but both moving West.
The bottom line Sunday morning is that there is a huge High propelling everything West currently and at some point land is in the way of any potential system with this set up.
The small area off the SE coast spiraling as it moves West within a pocket moving in tandem with an Upper Level Low (actually 2 but the ULL to the North is larger and more the driver here of what may or may not happen) and some models do show that it could wrap up close to land. It's common for this sort of Low to develop and wrap up tighter as it gets closer to land. I should say closer to landfall IF it comes to that. It's a tricky set up but it often produces a "surprise" homegrown storm forming literally at the beach. But in today's world nothing is really a total surprise as models offer possible solutions and forecasters pick through those models looking for the most reliable information to help guide people in it's path. Late June early July is prime time for these coastal Lows getting a name, but usually they are short lived so not much fame. Just a rainy day at the beach.
Note the small low trying to close off...
The big high propelling it towards land.
Impressive signature the high has... don't u think?
In the long term the wave out in the Atlantic is a problem for islands in it's way, unless the High inhales substantially and allows the wave to miss the islands. What could it become? It could become a tropical storm at the least, IF it develops. The issue with Invest 95L is the opposite of the small coastal low off the coast. Compare and contrast the two above and the large one has a huge moisture pocket. I use the word "huge" because it is HUGE... big, comprehensive and often large systems like this present a threat as they do not die off as do weak, small waves that dry up fast. The large high is kind of like a personal humidifier that is carried with it and as long as there is moisture there is the chance of development. Oddly, it has quite the closed signature on Earthnull, however the NHC can and will tell you that does not make it anything more than an Invest. But the broad circulation staying together and staying moist makes it hard to ignore this wave.
One thing that needs to be remembered is that far out in the Atlantic is that the water temperatures currently are not warm enough to really produce a hurricane so they stay a tropical wave rolling west and yet when they get into the part of the Atlantic that is warmer they face shear coming out of the Caribbean this time of year. This is why June is usually too soon. It's a push me, pull me sort of set up that makes it hard for waves to develop, yet the bigger they are the more chance they have (especially when they have their own semi closed broad center, yet many such waves have produced tropical trouble as they got closer to the Islands and the US and the associated Bahamas. So know it's there and keep preparing for hurricane season.
The below part of the blog is some history ...
..history of Miami Beach.
If you aren't interested ...thanks for reading the above.
I'll update on the wave in the morning.
In Miami while watching coverage of the building collapse..
...they are watching that wave carefully.
I am too as I type the blog...
.. again the below is an ecological history of Miami.
It relates, tho how much it relates exactly is yet to be known.
Could a named system hit Jacksonville Florida?
It's not developed and it's increasing moisture in SFL.
Maybe Savannah or Myrtle Beach?
I'll update tomorrow.
A wide view of "Miami Beach" below.
It's Miami's beach....
...it was a sandbar and nothing more.
Dredged up ocean sand and redesigned.
This is a close up of the part of the world we call "Miami Beach" that stretches from Government Cut that was literally "cut" off from what is now Fisher Island but was once part of Miami Beach. They made the "cut" to make a channel into downtown Miami, as before that ships had to go far to the South near Virginia Key and work their way back towards the young city of Miami. Government Cut was a short cut and one that helped make Miami a major Port city. Surfside is beautiful, small municipality just before "Miami Beach" runs into Bal Harbor. Note how the Western side of the coastline has cuts into land and places where Collins Avenue is very narrow. There is one such area where Champlain Towers is and there's another one further south near what used to be the Deauville Hotel of Beatles fame and both those areas are more prone to flooding than other areas, flooding in that over time every large hurricane had storm surge where briefly the bay and the ocean met.
The original beach looked more like this...
...just a sandbar, a thin sandbar
Waterfront property sells....
...so they made more waterfront property!
So you have heard about the study in the 1980s saying that said that area in particular was more prone to buildings losing height (by extremely small measures but everything adds up) and it's attributed to that specific area being a natural, wetland habitat. It said that not all of Miami Beach was "sinking" but that specific block or two was sinking more. Could the sand there be "weaker" than a few blocks North or South? Possibly, but it doesn't account for a tragedy on this scope, not really. It's easy to blame things on one study or one other study, but studies have been done over time and buildings inspected and monitored. Most of Miami Beach was a natural wetland area as it was part of a SANDBAR that's coastline shifted, shrunk and grew over time as sand was washed away or it was deposited there. The western part of the sandbar known as Miami Beach because it was Miami's beach literally accessible only by rowboat or sail boat for the locals who went over on Sunday and made picnics. There was a ridge along the ocean side where some trees grew, vs the tangle of mangroves in the middle and the on the western edge.
Then in the 1920s they tore out the mangroves so hard to do they brought in elephants who were tougher than the machines and then they leveled it and then they put down sod, beach sand, filled in the holes and made subdivisions to be sold off to the highest bidder. With time they made waterfront property where only the bay had existed so when you see long islands or peninsular like areas with condos on each side with beautiful water front views including those beautiful round islands with awesome mansions know they were NOT there... Miami Beach was a long strip of land, very much a sandbar and very much alive and always growing or losing land with the flow of every hurricane and every Noreaster in the winter that digs away at Miami Beach amazingly more than hurricanes.
This was not the huge, glitzy Porsche Tower 60 stories high built also on a spit of land that was once a natural wetland; granted it was built recently after stronger building codes post Hurricane Andrew. Every building HAS TO BE CONSTANTLY MAINTAINED because the beautiful ocean that sold the condos with the beautiful views ... eat away at it day by day, salty air becomes corrosive... that's the bottom line.
And the problem with a condo is each unit is privately owned and maintained differently yet all are in the same village so to speak, this is always an issue during Hurricane Season in smaller buildings as the structure is only as strong as it's weakest link. Out of town owners who didn't secure their sliding glass door nor did they maintain it. My son had a "penthouse" in Sunny Isles and the sliding glass door literally did NOT lock, but as long as there was no hurricane, it wasn't a problem. It used to boggle my mind, but the view also boggled my mind.
maintained unit that may have more cracks on the balconies because heavy tile was added or it was not as well maintained. One unit had a sliding glass door that allowed in rain, others did not. And that is the same with EVERY condo in that area on either side of Miami Beach. So while you may have incredible protection for a hurricane.... your neighbor above you may not and not even locked the door on their sliding glass door when they went to see the kids in Canada or Panama.
Yes things sink in Miami, it's build on a swamp on a thin layer of limestone that is prone to sinkholes, cracks and sometimes underground "streams" not originally seen until there is a problem. My college was sinking (6 inches in less than 10 years) they had to reinforce it, it was blamed on blasting nearby by constructors building ...creating a new subdivision. The building would literally sway and shake when they would blast while we were in class but South Dade was all the rage then. A joke in Miami said if you stood too long on South Dixie Highway or Kendall Drive they'd build a condo on top of you. My synagogue was designed to be a beautiful, modern oval structure and after it was built the roof had problems and parts suck into the ground and it looked like a "squashed bug" being known as one of the oddest structures in the area. It turns out there was a stream ... part of a canal that some developer in the 1920s began building but stopped and it was a subterranean waterway NOT on any maps.
The roof was supposed to be "SMOOTH" like an igloo ...
(why don't know someone liked this design)
The ridges are because it was sinking...
..it didn't fall but it didn't end up the way it was supposed to.
It was a synagogue, now it's a church.
Built in the early 1970s...still there.
Note the map below shows canals nearby.
Apparently part of one was under that building.
My highs school nearby was also sinking.
They reinforced it.
The canal to the West of the Temple was still there..
..underground, not on maps and not noticed.
Until "ribs" began to appear on the roof.
Living in a swamp paved over isn't easy ...
...always something can crop up.
And needs maintenance.
Also a Condo Association has to agree on things...
..and Covid slowed down the process or repairs.
After the 2018 report shown below.
Really nothing to add weather wise but I did want to point out something that impacts much of the South Florida area and that's the history of the land and how we interact with this beautiful tropical paradise, well unless a tropical system is about to make landfall.
Thanks for reading this, it's not great literature but it's my therapy as writing helps and I am a Miami Historian who has lectured extensively over time. Thanks for your patience as I work my way through this while waiting to hear news on my friend is seems lost... in the debris. One of my best friends says I "write" that's what I do and how I communicate and he's correct as usual. It's my therapy but it's good to understand the history of Miami Beach.
Excellent historical account of how Miami Beach was cut up to make a route to the young city of Miami, and how Government Cut and the Port of Miami, how it began.
And a wonderful video from one of my most loved friends, Paul George the Ultimate Miami Historian.
Early Miami Bathing Beauties...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5tAn5ontyk Incredible video... it was a beach where the locals took rowboats or sailboats over and had picnics. The city was Miami, Miami Beach was a sandbar to enjoy the beach as Miami in general had no beach it is built on a bay... any semblance of beach is man made, much like most of Miami Beach is...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
