Invest 95L & 97L Cruising Towards the Caribbean. Will They Survive and Threaten the Islands. Could Happen. Either Way Be Prepared Because the Tropics Are Warming UP!!

 

Florida, dealing with the long term struggle to recover bodies from a mountain of rubble in Surfside is now within range of long term models for both Invest 95L and 97L. It must be the beginning of the real Hurricane Season and time is of the essence in Surfside. I can't imagine how even a small hurricane would set back that process. Hurricane Season comes whether it's a good time or a bad time, it's simply hurricane time!

So we have two Invests 95L and 97L with zones of development that overlap as seen above.

20% is in the short term....

Models this far out are iffy. They show a pattern, they show where the High is expected to be and where the wave could be and they change from model run to model run from day to day. The GFS shows a wave getting into the Caribbean, to Cuba and moving up towards Florida but into the GOM. Next model run might show it dying over Haiti and the Dominican Republic or falling apart over Cuba. Or next model run could put Florida in the cross hairs. This is long term modeling and the wave has not developed yet into anything more than a wave. 

The high is HUGE.

I've been saying that for days herel.l

SAL is there yet it's allowing the waves thru.

So what do we do?

Models are models.
I'd rather hug a meteorologist... than a model!!

(attempt at humor here)

I'll update tomorrow. What you need to do is get a plan, make a back up plan (small hurricane vs big hurricane) and hope that the hurricanes this year veer away from land and don't do much damage. But trust me wishing doesn't make it so .... so prepare in case a hurricane wants to come and visit you there!

So whatcha gonna do?

Watch the next model run...

...buy hurricane supplies.

Get a plan and life goes on.

Check back tomorrow.

Random models below.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Other models develop it a bit and then lose it. Next model run... who knows?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

The ICON shows a strong, very strong High and nothing much happening of a tropical nature.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2021062912&fh=216

I'll update tomorrow.

Sweet tropical dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram