50/50 chance in the Atlantic for Development.. maybe...

Why do they do that? 50% I mean no one says 54% chance do they? It's always a nice round number. I'm thinking there's probably a 57% chance of some Heinz 57 sort of storm forming out there. Not really a storm.. not really prime time. Maybe it will bluster up enough rain and wind to get some late season designation but in any other season it would just be a lot of wind and rain out in the central atlantic.

In one of those moods... it won't stop raining and my plans for the morning included a long walk on Hollywood Boulevard up to the circle, around the circle and back again. The way it's raining I wouldn't make it to the end of the block without getting soaked. Nonstop flow of training rain coming in from the East with strong winds and small breaks of maybe 4 or 5 minutes at the most between them. To my north it's dry, to my south it's dry. Just training in one by one over my house.



Oh well, it's not the end of the world. I can walk later or I can dance later. I just want to see some blue skies and warm Florida weather before I have to go up north for a bit :( where it is gray all day and freezing cold and I have to put clothes on.. you know sweaters over shirts (ew) and coats and socks... I'm a tee shirt sort of girl and prefer them soft and flimsy not made for cold weather.

Either way the NHC is closely watching this system with one eye open and one eye closed. You can almost hear the yawn at the end of the discussion:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

Listening to old Eagles tunes interspersed with Karen Carpenter (which is something I never do... usually would prefer lying on a bed of nails than listening to old Carpenters songs...) and looking for the right song to fit my mind.

Wrong Hollywood, but a good song....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVcXuKxNwks&feature=related
(classic version)

With regard to the tropics the last week or so there hasn't been much to write or tweet about. Here in Hollywood, Florida helping out one of my kids and enjoying life but.... thinking if I was in North Miami Beach I'd be able to walk on the canal this morning.

Losing all the highs and lows ... ain't it funny how the feeling goes.....desperado... song stuck in my head while I am trying to write something deeply topical about the tropics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDNtqy0zjJA&feature=related <--- sigh

So, being the Miami girl I am... I am going to put on some Gloria Estefan music and dance inside in the AC and maybe go take a tribal fusion bellydance class later or go find some sun on the boulevard or the boardwalk.... shake it up... come on baby shake your body do that conga...

Gloria dancing on the beach in Miami -----> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH_u0IzEMsY&feature=related

Besos Bobbi <---- me saying chow for now :P

Ps... Fins game at 1... be there or be a Jets fan!

Subtropical Storm Sean ... Going Tropical

Sean is currently in transition between Subtropical and Tropical. At the moment he is like half a storm. Tropical on the top, Subtropical on the bottom. Like one of those machines that allows you to have both chocolate and vanilla in the same cone. Mind you he is a tropical dessert that is very far away from land out in the Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda.



It seems from the way the discussion is written at the Hurricane Center than they will update on the next advisory IF he has finished the transition.

He is currently moving erratically or just slowly bobbing about. Official movement is 2 mph North.

The big question is how much this affects Bermuda.



Secondary bonus for beach goers and surfers who like big waves is high surf on the beaches of Florida.

It's really a moot point if it's tropical or subtropical. It's a complicated bar a storm has to reach depending on the wind field and how much it works it's way down to the surface and other discussion that is not that important. If you are a ship at sea you need to know it's out there no matter if its tropical or subtropical. Somehow, being "Tropical" makes it more "real" to us watching at home on our computers or reading advisories on our cellphones I suppose.

Have a beautiful, breezy day if you live in South Florida. The winds are dying down, but the palm fronds are still moving about making it a picture perfect day in the Tropics.

Besos Bobbi

Coming together Gale Center vs Subtropical?

Really coming together here and forming a nice roll. Will be interesting to see what they do as it seems to be coming together here.

Loop:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Track:



Also...some great info on www.flhurricane.com on a system in the Mediterranean ....which is rare but then this has been a rare year weather wise. Good info on how rare this is ...worth reading.

Picture posted from their site:



Keep watching...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi

Something Happening... Subtropical Storm Forming?

Seems so .... stay tuned. Most of the models take it out to sea though there may be some strong surf and high winds along the beaches of Northern Florida.

Red Circle. 60% chances of forming.

Already high surf advisories far from the storm ...

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
421 AM EST MON NOV 7 2011

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-090000-
/O.EXT.KMLB.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111109T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMLB.RP.S.0007.000000T0000Z-111109T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
421 AM EST MON NOV 7 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...
...RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH
A LARGE SWELL TO GENERATE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE COAST
WILL CREATE VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT
THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. DOMINANT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
ALSO KEEP A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. MODERATE BEACH EROSION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...
RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION. EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS
CAN BE KNOCKED DOWN BY THE FORCE OF LARGE BREAKING WAVES. IT IS
RECOMMENDED TO NOT ENTER SURF...UNTIL THE LARGE OCEAN SWELLS
SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEK.

As they say... "developing story, stay tuned"

Next name on the list:

Sean

Besos Bobbi

Nothing Happening

I'm beginning to feel like Annie here in South Florida. Will the sun really come out tomorrow? Will it stay out? What about today? The awnings are dripping raindrops, but the sun is peaking out as well. Every day starts the same and every day ends the same. It feels more like Monsoonal May than frisky November.

Official word from the NHC is no tropical development anytime soon.

Will we see a stray November storm or two? Maybe. Anytime you have frontal boundaries dangling across tropical waters you risk the chance that something will spin up. November storms are usually weak but bring the chance of tornadoes and other windy weather with them.

This is the official line below.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Stay tuned and keep watching the tropics is what I say...

Besos Bobbi