Arlene Making Landfall Near Cabo Rojo Mexico

Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall this morning near Cabo Rojo Mexico as a strong Tropical Storm with 65 mph winds. Just prior to landfall, she accelerated and she should slowly dissipate over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Otherwise, there are two weak tropical waves continuing on the same initial westward path that Arlene followed. The stronger of the waves is currently at 55W and just a bit north of 10N. It's a wave that bears watching.

It looks pretty quiet right now going into July 4th weekend, but you never know what might pop up closer to home the next few days. For now... it's smooth sailing, but that could change in the tropics as we say goodbye to June and segue into July.

As for me, am enjoying the tropical breeze while it's just a breeze and having late night Cafe Con Leches by the water with my best friend. Got to enjoy those moments in life while you can. I was looking up last night at some big Royal Palm Trees at the Waterways and thinking "wonder how this place would look after a Category 2 Hurricane?" It wouldn't look so pretty, so enjoy now as we are all living on borrowed time in paradise and the aftermath of a hurricane is not nearly as beautiful as how they look on the satellite far away.

Have a good day, enjoy life!

Besos Bobbi


Official "bottom line" from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...ARLENE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CABO ROJO MEXICO...

TS Arlene Holds Her Own & Heads Off to Mexico

That's pretty much it. Arlene is a minimal Tropical Storm, headed towards landfall tomorrow somewhere in Mexico. She held it together overnight, after an extremely weak looking satellite signature around Midnight. She's your typical Bay of Campeche tropical entity that sits down there, cradled in the far Southwestern Gulf and despite looking like "not much" ends up looking better and better just prior to landfall. Often, these systems this time of year down there intensify quickly, they put their head down like a good fullback trying to pick up as much yardage as they can as they head for the goal line. In this case, the goal line is very close and the game is about to be over.

No, Texas ain't gettin' any from Arlene. However, the smallest change in this overall pattern could easily bring some rain to Texas in the not so very distant future. Already, models are spinning up a possible storm and heading it towards the Houston area in several days. It's just a model right now, but these waves have been following this path for the last few weeks and it only takes a small variation in the placement of the high and it's strength to allow one to curve north towards the Texas coastline. So, it tropical moisture is what Texas is wanting, tropical moisture is what Texas will be getting down the tropical road.

I could wax poetic today about flooding and fires endangering small towns and nuclear plants but I'm gonna keep it short and keep it centered on tropical weather today. Suffice it to say that this is a year to remember when it comes to disasters far and wide across the country, across the globe. I'm sure y'all know how to find the Drudgereport if you want to read up on everything under the sun topical. As for me, I'm sticking to the tropics this morning.

I'll post later today with some more Arlene information and I'm watching a tropical wave south of Hispaniola and one that is about to enter the Caribbean in a day or so for more action. The area of convection north of Hispaniola went poof with the upper level winds yesterday. As for the rains over Florida, it's gonna keep on raining.. so getting out there early today to get my errands done. I do have to tell you, it was a beautiful night last night at the Waterways. A rare, almost cool breeze and gentle showers caressed the night people who were sitting around sipping Cafe Con Leches at 10pm with the sounds of laughter and music in the air and I was one of those people sitting there loving every moment of it!

Besos Bobbi

Link to loop for the day:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ft.html

Tropical Storm Arlene, 1st of the Season Aims at Mexico

There has been a lot of discussion going on, behind the scenes this afternoon as to what to do about Arlene...if she is Arlene or whether to name her the first Tropical Depression of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 8pm she is Arlene!

The "official" word earlier was that she wasn't quite ready for prime time and we were up to 90% and a really, big bright RED circle..

"THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY."

What a difference a few hours can make....
90% goes to 100% real soon in the tropical world.

"ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN"

Again this is a South of the Border System NOT a Texas bound storm. But, you never know where moisture can go once it's in the atmosphere. Here in Florida we have had cloudy, stormy skies all day and it's beautiful if you like storms and I do ;)

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=95

Stay tuned and start tracking, more info later!

BobbiStorm

Up to 70% Chances for a Designated System in the BOC

The chances for this system to be the first named or designated system to get advisories posted has gone up to 70%.

Red Circle Time...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

I'll be back later tonight with more accurate and in depth detail, for now dodging the showers in Miami.

Besos Bobbi

50% Chance for Development in the BOC.. Rainy Day in Key West

All eyes are on West Texas as the area in the Bay of Campeche moves slowly west towards the TexMex area, however the moisture blowing away from this system with the upper level winds and slamming the Florida Keys with one round after another of strong storms. Funny how weather works. We sit and watch where a "possible" system might go, yet areas not in it's path get more weather than where it is possibly headed. In fact, it's gonna be a rainy day over most of South Florida with increased chances of rain as tropical moisture is pumping into the area.

The same general area on the West Coast of Mexico is trying harder to develop than the one moving towards the Mexican border. Those winds may die down a bit tomorrow and this system could spin up over the next few days, get a recon flight to go out and check it out and just as it heads in there will be much discussion on whether it is a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm or just a lot of rain. Basically, it's late June in the Tropics......... par for the course if you know what I mean.

The funny part about the rain in South Florida is the upper level winds are pushing moisture over the area from the WSW and at the same time, the strong easterly breeze will bring in rain from the other side. Just one of those days, lots of sun and just as much rain. Find a nice place to sit a bit and relax and watch it fall down unless you want to race through the puddles. Yesterday was a banner day on Miami Beach, I shopped til I dropped in at Nespresso and relaxed a bit and collected my thoughts on paper. I'm not much of a shopper, but some sales are not to be ignored.

Meanwhile, I am watching the interaction between an Upper Level Low north of the Hispanola/Puerto Rico area that is acting up a bit, possibly triggered by a westbound tropical wave that got caught up in it temporarily. Time will tell, but worth watching especially since whatever it is...will move west closer to Florida at some point.

As for Texas, I pray they get rain but I don't know if this particular system will bring it to them. If only the moisture blowing off to the East was blowing off to the North... As in Real Estate, everything about tropical moisture is about location and Texas ain't getting any right now. Meanwhile, a really great line of storms are moving in from the Ocean over Key Largo and am thinking I should have gone down to Key West today, but no am waiting a few days before making any definitive vacation plans.

As for the planes, Hurricane Recon IS scheduled to go check out the area in the BOC and see just exactly what is or isn't going on later today.

Bottom line from the NHC is:

"WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...

THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT

MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT

HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE RAINS AND WINDS

WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. "

Note, I highlighted the fact that they are talking about Southeastern Mexico not Houston and Dallas.

If you do want to follow the weather in Texas and elsewhere there is a great Facebook page online that allows you to watch as the Texas Storm Chasers do there thing ;) It's a really GREAT weather site with good tropical updates.

http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2011/06/27/invest-95l-discussion-1/

Some other choice resources are given below that show the flow over the region as well as areas where tropical development could spin up.

Whatever happens, enjoy your weather today and get out there and enjoy the sunshine. Use sunscreen and drink lots of water, but enjoy the weather because as Joe says, "its the only weather you got" or...go somewhere that you enjoy the weather more is what Bobbi would say ;)

Smiling, Besos Bobbi

Ps.. links, loops and lattes

Loop the Loop and watch where the water vapor goes:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html



http://postcardsfromtheair.blogspot.com/2010/07/oh-la-la-nesspresso-in-miami-beach.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.GIF

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/loopsh.php?based=archive/tropics/cent_amer&loopid=Central+America+Sat/Station+Plot

Dwindling Chances For Development... 20% & Manic Monday Thoughts

So, the chances are still there for a meager chance of development in the Tropics, however they are murky and meager and I wouldn't hold your breath for any rain from it in Texas . . .

Texas is one of those tropical ports of call wishin for rain of any kind . . .

Here in Miami we got doused last night with a downpour that caused minor flooding in the North Miami Beach area and of course Aventura. I sat in the Whole Foods around dinnertime yesterday watching the locals run for their car with their groceries through ankle deep puddles trying to avoid being zapped by deadly lightning strikes. You can always tell the Yankees in the crowd, the transplanted New Yorkers who are running about with their umbrellas in the middle of a Severe Thunderstorm as if they are walking slowly down Madison Avenue in Mid-November. What do they not get I try to figure out. Do not walk through a parking lot with an umbrella at the height of a thunderstorm. This is the tropics, take a few minutes, breathe, wait it out, it will pass I promise.

I do so love summer in Miami. Waiting and watching as the heat builds up, until it breaks suddenly as a thunderstorm sweeps in from the Glades and washes over the Magic city. Whoosh, it's gone. There is this moment of miraculous relief and the realization that you'll have to take your sandals off to run through the puddles to your car before the next storm begins. Or if you prefer, you spend the day at the Mall in ice cold air conditioning wandering through the aisles during the last few days of the Victoria Secrets sale. My best friend is a Mainer, she prefers air conditioning and staying inside during such humid, tropical weather. Another friend is a water nymph like me and we sat in the pool late on the day on Saturday as Shabbos ended, the palm trees swayed gently, the sky turned an odd shade of burnt sienna as the sun hid between what seemed to be distant thunderstorms and faraway smoke from some distant fire in the glades. I'm not sure what caused the incredible sunset but it was like a scene from a movie but around the pool it felt like the Garden of Eden with just a few of us discussing biblical history, philosophy and love. Really, was a magical Miami moment.

And, yet at the back our minds is the hurricane season. I overheard my brother freaking out about how possible hurricanes would affect his new Internet service contract with Comcast. He was a little hyper and worried and I didn't want to mention that when the avocado tree in the backyard takes out the phone lines and the electric lines he probably won't have much Internet to worry on ...but... I stayed out of that dogfight. Not sure who won but he is finally switching over to Comcast, one of the last holdouts. I smiled as I remember sitting on the computer in the office during Wilma and suddenly the realization hit me that the Internet was gone, even though my laptop battery kept the laptop humming away quietly. One last question, unanswered from my storm chaser friend wanting to know what the lowest barometric pressure we had was and how strong were our winds. Whoosh with the winds went our Internet and our Electric and any semblance of normality.

Yes Virginia, in the back of our minds down here in Florida we are always remembering the hurricane season.

June too soon. July too early. August get ready. Remember September.

I'm wondering if we will have a hurricane to remember come this September.

But, today is just another manic Monday.

I've got things to do on Lincoln Road and downtown and will try to squeeze in some time to write and think between errands as I try to get back home before the afternoon thunderstorms begin.

Wherever you are... have a beautiful day and enjoy the weather...

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r2VIN4M6QU

Loop the following loop with the above song ;)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Slim Chances In the Caribbean & Funny TWC Commercials

First off, there is a 20% chance for development in the Caribbean or really in the Gulf of Mexico as we have a tropical wave that is crossing over the Yucatan in search of some place to have some tropical fun. Chances are slim, really not very probable but there is a small possibility.

There is also an excellent read on the specific weather conditions that have made this year one to remember. Be it forest fires, floods or twisters in major cities somewhere, the meteorological violence keeps on coming as Mother Nature seems to be on a rampage this year. Many are beginning to worry on what sort of Hurricane Season we will have this year and if the rampage will continue in the tropics. One article was released recently, referring to this problem as La Nada. It is being highly criticized by some, and appreciated by others as some try to take a stab at figuring out just what has caused this pattern of severe weather from coast to coast.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/24jun_wildweather/

Now, to make y'all laugh ;)

There is a really funny commercial put out by The Weather Channel for those people who love to love Jim Cantore unless he is on the way to their beach town.

Enjoy and if you see Jim Cantore on a beach near you, ask him what he is doing there before you run for the hills!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48r4IQTB3NE

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi

Mango Moments on the Funktop Loop

There's something to look at in the tropics this morning, lots of color but not a whole lot of circulation to discuss.

Loop the loop and see what you think for yourself:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ft.html

Mind you, Forecaster Avila does not think that it will develop so I wouldn't "worry" too much about it just yet. The text below is the official word on tropical cyclone formation out of the NHC in Miami.

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Off the record, there has been a lot of talk about the MJO moving into our part of the world and a Kelvin Wave enhancing the chances for development over the next few days.

A good look at the Water Vapor Loops shows us which way the waves are traveling.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Note: If there is development in the Eastern Pacific off the west coast of Mexico then the chances for anything in the Caribbean will be next to nothing. IF the wave in the Caribbean makes it north into the Bay of Campeche ...then it might be something to pay attention.

For now.. it's a beautiful day in Miami. The trees are filled with mangoes that are falling, plop, plop, PLOP on the ground and people are trying to give away mangoes faster than they can fall. My kids seem to be allergic to mangoes for the most part. Over exposure it seems. They "smell" it seems. Actually, it seems they smell HORRIBLE. And, they are "slimy" (???) and it seems I made them eat mangoes for breakfast, lunch and dinner if you ask the older kids. The younger kids barely remember getting any as I would let the local neighborhood Haitians go up onto the roof, knock them all down in a crescendo of mangoes banging onto the roof and then they would gather them up for $50 or $75 that I used to help pay their summertime electric bills. Everyone has an opinion on mangoes, they either hate them or love them. People up north eat Mango Sushi and in North Bay Village at Da Vinci's they make the most incredible salad with slivers of mangoes.

Love them or hate them, they are a sign of the hurricane season starting.

Some old timers swear if you have two or three crops of mangoes in one season it foretells a busy season, a strong hurricane. It's one of those only time will tell sort of things. So, if you think you are having a bumper crop this year, you might want to blame the strong Bermuda High, as we have had less afternoon boomer sort of thunderstorms that knock down all the small, baby mangoes and leave us a smaller, more manageable crop. As for me, I am in love with Mango Chobani Greek Yogurt. It's my summertime treat of choice.

As for the tropics, keep watching because I am a big believer in the MJO and Kelvin Waves to ignite a sleepy tropics.

Besos Bobbi
Ps Shear is real strong right now, so it will be really hard for any of these areas to maintain development. But, hey.... you can watch...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelvin_wave

Tropical Possibilities

There is a small possibility that one of those wayward, westbound tropical waves might develop down the road when it gets near the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Not saying it's a long shot, but we have to wait and watch right now as the models are playing with the various possibilities. An even slimmer chance that it could affect drought stricken Texas. Florida is safe for now because of the strong, immense high pressure that is strung out across Florida and over parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

A friend made an excellent video that is available on youtube, it's worth watching.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMhX8xPLN00&feature=channel_video_title

For now, we sit and we bake in Miami from the high pressure. The good part of the high pressure is that we are also enjoying it's beautiful, strong, steady breeze. So, go out and sit a spell by the water, relax, enjoy today because down the road in August or September, that same strong, steady flow may bring us a Cape Verde storm.

One of the things to remember when living in the tropics is to enjoy every day and it's tropical pleasures because one way or the other we are living on borrowed time.

Of course, Tampa's time is way overdue...

Besos Bobbi

Summer Solstice - - How will you spend the longest day of the year?

I mean anyone who has ever read Fitzgerald knows it's a day not to be reckoned with..

You don't just sit around counting daisies, you got to get up and get out and do something special on the longest day of the year, the summer solstice... the indisputable beginning of summer.

Some people sit at the beach at night and sing love songs to Mother Nature. Other's party hardy. Some worry on the end of the world or what tomorrow will bring. Some wax poetic on the aspects astrological while others stare off into the heavens at the sun and the multitude of Solar Storms going on right now.

What's your favorite drug of choice to while away the hours?

For me I'm on my way back home today, a quiet celebration of an old friend's birthday and the change of the seasons. I've heard one or two verses of the Cicada Song too many up north here in the South and I have things to do back home in the Tropical South.

There is a saying that wherever go ---->there you are .... That is true and lately I have been trying more to live in the moment and enjoy it's beauty. The problem with that logic is that while at the gym during a serious moment in ballet class or bollywood some memory comes back to me of some silly conversation and I start smiling ridiculously like a fifteen year old child in love or star struck on seeing a movie star. Memories invade my mind and make me giggle. Music from the past lingers in my head and makes me wiggle and oh lordy I am rhyming today. Someone here is smirking to himself, fine..fine..fine. I promise I won't go out and shoot anyone today or run anyone over in a white roadster and won't drink myself silly at the Ritz even though I'm feeling more like a Flapper lately than I am a writer. A friendly writer reminded me yesterday that at a Convention in NY I made a promise to write every day and she knows I haven't been as I am not sending her my work .... Fine, so I stand reminded and most likely will write my little heart out tonight while traveling under the aspects of the first night after the Summer Solstice.

As for the tropics. I am going to go insane and get silly again if nothing in the Atlantic or Caribbean develops soon. I remember one Shavous in Key West when I was off line for the Jewish Holiday and there was something bubbling in the tropics I walked over to NWS there and asked Matt and Jon if I could sit and watch a bit, and there was something to watch as I sat surrounded by all those big screens with the satellite feeds looping as we discussed the next to nothing chances for the tropical wave to develop.

You know it's slow when storm chasers are tracking sun spots:


And, I keep wondering why that big one looks like Africa... I had a tee shirt like that once I think...

This is a classic set up this year... dry May, strong high setting up, waves moving west. We are going to have a hurricane season this year. Possibly later rather than sooner but when it starts it will be one to remember. I promise you that.

For now the Pacific is popping and the wild storms on the Plains are on the front page. Nows the time to sit down and make a list of your priorities that you would need should a hurricane come to visit your humble abode. Trust me, crazy things can happen and will happen fast just when you let your guard down.

I have heard some stories that after the summer solstice (I know just a date on the calendar right??) that things change and the tropics ramp up ....

Only time will tell... and I'm wishing time would tell already!

Here are some various Summer Solstice articles from around the web for you to read, but the truth is.. the best way to enjoy the Summer Solstice is to get out there and do something that you love.

Of course, I have a friend down in Key West today who is smart enough to be in Key West during the Summer Solstice trying to do her margarita magic making miracles and smiles. Hope she enjoys one for me as I'll be sipping alone up here wishing I was down there today. Key West, by the way, is a great place to be for the summer solstice or the winter solstice or just about any solstice at all. You can watch the sun rise and watch it set all in one day, from the same place! How awesome is that?



As for the Tropics... I have it on the highest authority that nothing is happening. For some reason it takes two forecasters to write that up but really... nothing is happening in the Tropical Atlantic.

Besos BobbiStorm


General Daily Horoscope Influences from Google's Morning Feed:
The spinning Earth's North Pole is at maximum tilt toward the Sun today, marking the Summer Solstice at 1:16 pm EDT. This first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere also marks the Sun's shift into nurturing Cancer, when long hours of daylight warm us and speed the growth of vegetation. Meanwhile, communicator Mercury runs into a resistant square to strict Saturn, revealing obstacles and making it tough to talk our way around real problems.

From Miami Marine Forecast, not waves are there, but nothings happening:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY WED. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN EARLY THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI...AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT.

www.spaceweather.com
SOLSTICE SOLAR FLARE: The first day of northern summer began with a solar flare. Magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1236 erupted during the early hours of June 21st, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The incoming CME does not appear to be particularly potent; nevertheless, the cloud could trigger polar geomagnetic storms when it reaches Earth on or about June 23rd. Check http://spaceweather.com for movies and updates.

HANG AN EXPLOSION ON YOUR WALL: The solar super-explosion of June 7, 2011, is now available from the Space Weather Store as a unique metallic wall hanging. Take a look: http://www.shopspaceweather.com/A-Blast-on-the-Sun.aspx

Beautiful Spin.... over Nebraska...

Wrong time, wrong place but a beautiful spin never the less.

Atlantic is slow, the Great Plains are not slow.

Still, a spin worth watching....

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNE0353&animate=true

Besos BobbiStorm

So SLOW In The Tropics . . .

... that my storm chaser friends are chasing Sun Dogs and possible earthquakes.

Seriously. That is really S L O W!

I don't know what to say, except slow is not really all that good. Often a busy June month brings a slower season down the road. This is setting up S L O W L Y to be an active season. Then again, 1997 looked like it would be busy and turned out to be the world's fastest building El Nino in history so you never really know until you know.

Some tropical moisture moving slowly west in the lower latitudes, down near South America and in the infamous Southwest Carib. There is a cluster of weather coming off of South Carolina that people were thinking might develop into something quasi to track, however it seems weaker and lower than they were expecting. Worth watching, but not something very likely.

Loop it and learn:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

Hot and humid in the Carolinas, just another day at the beach in Miami with possible afternoon thunderstorms. Of course, the West Coast of Florida will most likely get more afternoon thunderstorms as the Seabreeze should push most of them west towards their beautiful coast.

So... go out, have a really great weekend. Celebrate Fathers Day and if you don't have a father around or aren't yet a father celebrate the life of someone who was like a father to you. Celebrate the big father in the sky ;) Have a puppy? Take him for a walk, or her... Do something you enjoy and check back in real soon to see if I go postal before something percolates in the tropics other than rainbows, sundogs and mango flavored lollipops!

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps Seriously, I wasn't making this up. http://canetalk.com/2011/06/1308272311.shtml
Unless a sundog is a secret code for something that I can't figure out... personally I'd like to have a corn dog!

Nothing Happening.... so going to the beach...

Yep, my version of "Gone Fishing" if you know what I mean?

No dance classes today on my schedule, hot and heavy, humidity persist throughout the city and the beach is calling me. Maybe I am just trying to wash away the sadness that the Miami Heat did not win the big one, yet they won a lot more and went further than I thought they would and well.. have always been a football girl at heart ;)

I'm a Miami girl. We love the water, the breeze, the blue, blue sky and water and that thin line in between that some people call the horizon but to me is a point of focus, an illusion really... much like those wavy lines on the road on a hot summer day. The closer you get, the further away it gets. A visual form of eternity.

And, I need the breeze to blow the cobwebs out of my brain.

Planning a trip in a few weeks somewhere with my youngest son and possibly going away with my hurricane crazy friend as well. Somewhere with good wifi...

So, enjoy the day... Enjoy the week.

Personally, I give it one good week until things are a little more viable for tropical storm development. We have some nice little waves coming off of Africa, but fading fast as soon as they hit the water. Then they flare up again just before crashing into the coast of South America. They need to lift a bit... strong high steering them west and that will all change in a few weeks.



So, as my daddy used to say... "You got to do what you got to do" so do it with a smile and a song in your heart and know that pretty soon we will be watching things spinning around the tropics.

If you need a weather story you could track the floods as the snow pack melts it's way down south through the mid-section of the country. Nasty flooding out there, getting worse by the day.

Or loop and stare:
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

As for me... I got to go to the beach so.... stay tuned, don't go away too long and check back here soon because this is the week most tropical meteorologists go away with their families before the tropics start to pop as we get closer to July.

June is too soon silly ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

Hurricane Guide

Weekend reading for the upcoming Hurricane Season:

http://www.local10.com/download/2011/0324/27311836.pdf

Note... no surfing in a hurricane!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIGp6N19Vrw

Besos Bobbi

Spinning, flowing, watching the water vapor loop and smiling...

Watching the Water Vapor spin about over and over as it loops about watching one area of the atmosphere flow into another. It's awesome.

Air comes diving down from panhandle of Oklahoma into the mid-section of the country zoom, zoom, zooming down into the Gulf of Mexico where it swirls about draws moisture up from the Caribbean and shoots it towards the Gulf Stream where it feeds down and then up over towards England and Ireland and who knows where else it goes as I have to switch satellites.

It's beautiful. A perfect illustration of how energy is transferred from one place to another, back and forth, like great conversation or synonymous smiles across the miles.

http://www.canadianweather.org/charts/satellite.php

Yes, in a wild mood today and yet it's a quiet, wild mood. One where I sit and smile and stare and giggle and roll my eyes and then try to once again focus on the important things in life, but alas what is more important than smiles? Hmmmnn? And, pondering on the wonders of the world both the infinite wonders and the finite wonders.

So, as I sit and watch it swirl I think how much it's like the human body. The heart with all it's chambers and ins and outs that confounded me in biology when I was a girl in school. I mean is blood green or red or ... The water vapor loop is whatever color they use to highlight the moisture, sometimes it glows red and other times it's all black and white.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv

Isn't it amazing? Keeps our planet livable and lovable and today I'm in love with every aspect of this beautiful world and all fields of Earth Science and flowers blooming and birds singing and the mysteries of the universe.

Stay tuned... the Hurricane Season is developing . . .

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv

Ps Music to loop by:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyIx1i3uuXg&feature=related

Adrian Forms in Pacific, Carib is a Yellow Circle

For some reason that still reminds me of that silly song about tie a yellow ribbon round the old oak tree which should sort of connect to holding out for something in the Carib to form is like waiting forever.

Truth is when a storm forms in the Pacific it zaps the energy into that basin faster than the Mavericks coming back to take the lead against the Heat. It also ramps up the wind flow and shear in the Carib making it very hard for anything to form. And, yet there still is a small chance that something "could" form...tho it probably won't.

Where would it go IF it formed??



There is low probability in this forecast mind you... still showing it for those who live in Florida and have heard rumors of approaching tropical weather.

Then again this might be the year of storms forming closer in or just about anywhere. Either way I expect a difficult hurricane season for lots of people this year, it's a year Mother Nature has to be reckoned with.

Some good late night reading might be this link to an explanation of how this year isn't going to be a La Nina nor is it going to be an El Nino, it's what we call Neutral which really doesn't mean what it implies. Neutral years can be busy years such as 2005. Just hard to say until they start rolling, the hurricanes that is..
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Cliff Notes Version: "Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have developed and are expected to continue at least through
the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011."

Heavier reading on the whole El Nino Vs La Nina:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/klotzbach2011(us).pdf

As for me, going to go to bed with Parrot Fish dancing in my head.
BobbiStorm aka Ms. Storm ;) in a silly, sweet mood just not very sleepy!

Is Arlene Trying to Form in The Carib? If so...where does she go???

Woke up to a really good up of Coffee this morning, the tropical update on and the Sunday Paper on my doorstep. Smells like summer is in the air... and there is a beautiful little round tropical bubble down in the Caribbean with models taking it just about anywhere, if only she would form...



A few errant ones take her into the Gulf of Mexico, a few out NE into the Atlantic and some split the difference and take her north towards Florida. Sort of a Kokomo mix. Perhaps the wanna be Arlene woke up with that song in her mind this morning? I can understand why, I was storm chasing with my baby brother three weeks ago down there and got some awesome pics and a great Mango something or other which I sipped while watching the storm finally rain itself out after the waterspouts danced away from us on their way out into the Atlantic.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlripXxtEps
It really IS a place, on that the Miami Realtor who posted this is right, but it's a state of mind more easily achieved when you are living in the Keys! We took that awesome pic at the point of land on the beach, where I knew we could get a good panorama view of the squall line.. and a drink ;)

http://www.holidayisle.com/

So.... as you spend your Sunday doing your Sunday things, if you live in the Tropics or more specifically Miami, the Florida Keys or you are anchored on your father's old sailboat docked in Key Largo.... keep an eye on the tropics and check back here later this evening to see if this disturbance which is now at Code Orange with a 30% chance of forming has formed or blown away in the tropical breeze.

Besos BobbiStorm

Questions in the Tropics & Twisters in New England

The Wrong Way Corrigan system in the Gulf is headed towards the Tex Mex border, NHC is not playing with it despite what looks like banding and some organization as the models don't like it. However, wondering where that moisture will go after it goes inland, will it get swept up into the plains or on towards Mexico. Funky little no name system to watch. Short life, traveled a lot, didn't do much but caught everyone's attention.

As for the system in the Carib, it still needs watching and more so needs waiting. It has a lot of shear over it right now so the storms are getting blown off to the east and yet they keep cranking up. There is a tropical wave that is weak and supposedly going to connect with this area which sometimes provides the spark needed to make a big bang in the tropics. Time will tell but for now it is generating a lot of color on the satellite imagery.

Sad, poignant pictures of the damage in New England from a twister that took the steeple off of a beautiful church and caused massive damage there far from the Plains where we expect twisters to be.

I think this is a year when anything will be possible tropically speaking and we shouldn't count much out. It's been a funky year with weather in places we didn't expect at times we didn't expect, and I don't see anything that makes me believe that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be much different.

Often when we have an active year after an active year where few systems made landfall, we end up with similar storms but many landfalls. Something to think on a bit while we make our lists of things we need for later this year when storms will have names, strength and destinations.

I keep thinking on the third week in August... possibly an early Cape Verde Season, some early July crawlers that creep out of the Caribbean towards the north, freaky and fast June system and of course that big strong high that seems set up in place, if only we have viable waves...

So many questions... the answers will be written in the wind later this summer.

Besos Bobbistorm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

The Search for Arlene... Day 1 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The search for Arlene, the first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun, as eyes turn north and south towards tropical systems that could be possible candidates for that honor.

Most likely, the system in the Atlantic off the coast of Florida is moving so fast that it looks more like a circular derecho than a tropical or subtropical storm. Moving really fast, should make Daytona by lunchtime at the rate it's going. Maybe it wants to make a trip to that there outlet mall on I95 so many passing tourists love to aim for on their way north or south. Doubt this is Arlene, but stranger things have happened.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Further south in the SW Carib is a blob that is currently in an area where wind shear would make it hard to actually develop and do more than look pretty on colored satellite imagery. In a few days, this area may do something and we will continue to watch it... dreaming of Category Two June Storms. Anyone can dream... and June is usually too early and too soon for a Category Two storm in the Carib, but on any given day the tropics can throw a curve ball at you so keep watching.

Lastly, I wanted to point out on this first day of the Hurricane Season what any good tracker, chaser or enthusiast worth their mettle would point out. Early Cape Verde Waves are coming off the coast of Africa, riding low in the water and too low to develop but if they were to gain some latitude we could see an early Atlantic storm vs the run of the mill Gulf of Mexico, Off the Coast of Florida and SW Carib storms that June is more likely to bring. A lesson to remember: Cape Verde Storms are the Holy Grail of Hurricane Trackers.

Always love the First Day of the Hurricane Season. It's a new book, a new map, nothing horrible has happened and no one knows what really will happen. It's a work in progress. I watched my first Tropical Update this morning on TWC and will watch Jim Williams tonight at 8pm for his first show of the year. Gotta love my friends at www.hurricanecity.com and elsewhere who come out of the woodwork for the start of the season.

As for me.. am back in the South. Pruned some roses bushes this morning, cut some fresh flowers and now have multi-colored hydrangeas in a crystal vase on my dining room table. Watered the flowers, set the AC for COLD and am hunkering down to watch the tropics and the NBA Finals. What about that Dream Team now? Making dreams come true one alley oop at a time, gotta love the Heat! Lebron, Wade and all the rest of the great players who make this team a joy to watch over and over again!

Go Heat! The basketball kind, not the weather and I agree with Stephanie Abrams who mentioned the heat ridge and an early season. A point to remember though is that anything that forms in the Gulf of Mexico is most likely to make landfall somewhere. Something down in the SW Carib is less likely to unless it clips Miami or the the Virgin Islands on it's way out of the Carib.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

The search goes on for Arlene and may I add, I really love this list of names. A few of my favorites are of course Irene, Harvey and Vince ...ah the memories...

ARLENE AR LEEN- LEE LEE
BRET BRET MARIA MUH REE- UH
CINDY SIN- DEE NATE NAIT
DON DAHN OPHELIA O FEEL- YA
EMILY EH- MIH LEE PHILIPPE FEE LEEP-
FRANKLIN FRANK- LIN RINA REE- NUH
GERT GERT SEAN SHAWN
HARVEY HAR- VEE TAMMY TAM- EE
IRENE EYE REEN- VINCE VINSS
JOSE HO ZAY- WHITNEY WHIT- NEE
KATIA KA TEE- AH


Besos BobbiStorm

Ps Bonus pic that was posted on www.canetalk.com, absolutely beautiful.