African Wave Got It's Legs in the Water.... 30% Yellow from NHC Opening Bid.... Stay Tuned. Models & Remember Nothing is Set in Stone. Westbound Possibilities...

 

The wave has lifted off the coast of Africa

Officially in the water.

X marks the spot.

I like the water vapor loop.

Easier to see the "pocket"

Has a slight twist.

Earthnull shows it as well.

So where is it going? Well, first it has to form and preferably there will be an Invest at some point soon and then there will be more in depth information beyond speculation. It's a big wave, has a signature and models have been playing with it's possibilities for a while now. Remembering that models change all the time in various ways when we have a new tropical wave, I'm showing this below. The point here is that the models show it surviving and traveling different lengths of time to the West or WNW.

For those screaming FISH!

To each his own.

It's not a Fish til it's turning fast to the NNW.

These models show an array of westward movement.

There was an problem recently with turbulence.

Severe turbulence.

Maybe you saw it in the news...

The plane from Aspen to Houston...

...suddenly has severe turbulence.

people were injured.

It set down in Dallas short of it's destination.

My exhusband had an incidence when he was young, flying from LA to NYC by himself and the plane suddenly dropped and the stewardess serving food went flying in the air she was actually hit by the cart from which she was serving beverages. And, then the plane was fine and the Captain came on apologizing for the sudden turbulence and let the passengers know everything was okay. He added they may want to stay in their seats with their seatbelts on adding that they don't expect anymore severe turbulence, but "then again they didn't expect that one" adding that the stewardess would be treated for a possible broken arm.

He was not the easiest person to fly with, though he did fly, but he'd hold my hand tightly when the plane would jiggle around a bit. He said the turbulence incident was very scary and sudden as the plane just dropped and anything not tied down went flying to the top of the plane and crashed back onto the passengers and pretty much everywhere.

And, while watching the news on this incident it occured to me that this might be a good way to explain how when a tropical wave leaves Africa in 2025, despite all of our scientific knowledge and our ability to fly rockets perfectly to the Space Station things sometimes crop up the way the crew of the space station was stranded there way past their short assignment until a new rocket could be made ready to rescue them.

Nothing is carved in stone in tropical weather and the atmosphere is fluid, as it was the day the severe turbulence came out of nowhere. Andrew wasn't supposed to hit South Florida as a Cat 5 it was just a weak tropical storm that barely became a Hurricane headed elsewhere. Irma was not supposed to make that little dip down to Cuba and her Cuban vacation altered the trajectory of her track and while it did impact Miami ... Miami was spared a strong, direct hit by a Major Hurricane.

Shear forecasts don't always verify.

MJO forecasts don't always verify.

Saharan Dust lingers past it's seasonal invitation.

The list is long and too complicated to post in a short blog post about a wave that is just leaving Africa as I type this... 

Mimic shows it has a strong moisture signature.

Large, bigger waves often manage to get further West.

All waves have the potential to curve into the Atlantic.

Really, time will tell.

Anyone who tells you it's a FISH for SURE..

..is guessing.

Anyone who tells you it'll make landfall at ___

..is guessing.

But one thing I can say..

..it's a beautiful wave.

Has beautiful legs...

Have a great weekend.
Happy Labor Day Weekend!

Last day of August.

Tomorrow begins Meteorological Summer!

Sweet Summer Dreams are fading...

...Sweet Autumn Dreams coming on fast!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

30% Yellow Circle Off Africa. Big Wave Coming Off! Enjoy Labor Day. Summer Ends. Fall Begins. Fall Brings Monster Hurricanes!

 

I guess they are sure....

...they upped chances to 30%

So let's look at Africa next.

So we are just gonna wait and watch.

Way too soon to carve Fish Storm onto it.

Many have, many will not.

Will post models on Sunday.

By that time it should be an Invest.

Many take it out to sea....

...some bend it back at a higher latitude later.

Time will tell.

By every measure of meteorological measurement, Fall has moved in like a noisy new neighbor and had Summer evicted here in my neck of the woods. Many old time Mets would say that once we are decorated with fronts moving across the Nation and down into the Gulf that the Hurricane Season is pretty much over. I'll say that it transitions into the time of year that Monster Hurricanes such as Mitch, Matthew and Sandy incubate down in the Caribbean, form into monsters and work their way North where and when they can as every hurricane (especially the strong ones) want to move North towards the North Pole. That is there function in that they transfer energy from the equator to the Poles. 

Add in after Erin's long rampage through the Atlantic, often as a Major Hurricane, moving far UP into the North Atlantic she in fact helped the process that released cold, dry air on her back side down into the Carolinas and even into parts of Florida. There's a connection between that set up that you learn about in Meteorology.  Dave Schwartz used to say on TWC "what goes up, must come down" like the old song goes and indeed on the back side cold air (if it's up there) is released down, down into the lower 48 states.

Labor Day Weekend is here. Labor Day is usually the "end of the Summer" and as you noticed bikinis and sandals are on sale everywhere! Use some of those sales to stock up on supplies for hurricane season as it is not over until November 30th and often the meanest monster Canes form in the depth of Fall when fronts are on the move. Fronts always up the ante. 

If a hurricane is approaching the East Coast from the ESE a front will grab it and run with it out to sea.

If a hurricane forms in the Carib, from an old tropical wave that couldn't find traction until it got close to the Yucatan it will ride up into the Gulf and slam into Florida as Michael did or across the Florida as Wilma did when she caught a late season diving front and on the back side, after her winds tore at whatever trees were left standing after Katrina weakened them it knocked them all down. The power lines that were patched together with yellow "caution tape" were ignored by Wilma and away with the wind went out power again. 

So it's all a matter of perspective as to whether Fall and fronts kill off the Hurricane Season or if they ratchet Hurricane Season up to a way wilder level! Let's explore a few below.

After Mitch did Central America....

..a weaker part of him visited Florida.

Hurricane Sandy track below.

Halloween Storm.

Sandy went looking for Candy.

Michael 

Look at that eye making landfall.

Track below..

Then there was Matthew

Track below

We won't get to W this year...

But here's Wilma

track......

Yeah Fall changes things.

The Arena also changes.

So buckle up buttercup

Watch those Katrina Memories

Get your Hurricane Plan Ready.

Stay tuned.

As for Labor Day ...

..remember our American Workers

(that's what AI said...)

And while you're at it.

Party hardy!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

Yellow Circle 20% in 7 Days. Wave Still Over Africa . . . Season NOT Over! But Forecasts Most Likely Off ... Time Will Tell. Is 2025 Similar to 2015?

 

Fernand is dead.

Yellow Circle Off Africa 20% 

7 day.... 

...Wave emerges around Sunday.

I didn't write yesterday. I wasn't holding my breath for a yellow circle. I just had a lot on my plate yesterday, was busy until early afternoon and then I saw the news which upset me a lot. Nothing going on in the tropics yesterday worth talking on.... so I figured there might be a yellow circle this morning as I knew the NHC was taking the wave about to emerge off Africa seriously. I was a little surprised they went with 20% vs 10% however it's logical as some models take the wave and develop it fast and in turn pulls more to the North as strong early waves do unless they were Erin. And if and when it develops and pulls North it moves straight into a wall of Sahran Dust. So yeah it's 20% but I'm waiting to see what really happens. That's a lot of SAL as we move into September, but it is what it is so let's watch. Unless NHC means the one far to the East over Africa that I have watched since before it made it to Africa. Images will be below. 

Ps much of this is based on Euro AI models. GFS shows a smaller, weaker version. Love the way the GFS is suddenly on cool, blase mode.... must be on muscle relaxers or something.

That's a whole bunch of SAL.

People say the Atlantic is dead.

No it's not really dead.

But there's only life down LOW.

See image below.

Lots of life in MDR but low lat.

There's a lead wave in the MDR.

Managed to get lost of convection.

But low cruising towards South America no.

X99L is over by Central America

stayed "alive" and went where models said.

Due West possibly towards EPAC. 

Time will tell. Still amusingly watching it.

About 15 North there's "life"

Many waves rolled off Africa HIGH.

I mentioned this much this Season.

And once past SAL....

...there is much Shear there.

Note wave train is horizontal ...

color below...dry above.

Dotted clouds to N of MDR is SAL.

Only wave I'm curious on is the one to the East.

It's been impressive since it was visible.

Otherwise very "meh" 

Mediocre at best waves.

But there is that one wave.

Note there are actually 2 waves.

1st wave then 2nd. See below.

Sunday EURO.

NHC said wave emerges Sunday off Africa.

www.windy.com above.

Euro AI ensemble below

There it is....

...then possibilities split everywhere.

Not quite "poof" but I'll say poofy...

I'll say this, we are into "Fall" in parts of the Southeast. This is not one rare first front, it's the second cold front that chilled the air enough for me to turn off the AC. There's another one coming soon. We have trees turning in Raleigh...here and there.... yellow and gold leaves. That rarely happens in August, though I have seen it before (maybe 2015) and the nights are cool even when the daytime highs flirt with 80 degrees. A pattern shift is happening. No I don't believe Atlantic Coast is safe from hurricanes, you just need a hurricane to come up from the Caribbean or during that weird Indian Summer we will probably have early this year around the September Equinox. Everything is a month or so ahead of schedule.

Just taking it day by day for the rest of the Hurricane Season. I do believe the forecasts and I do mean forecastS for 2025 are off and we will not be as busy as forecast, though it only takes one as Phil Klotzbach always reminds everyone in the CSU Hurricane Forecasts. A memorable hurricane season is punctuated by the strong African Wave like Donna in 1960, a relatively quiet season but when you say 1960 Hurricane Season you remember Donna that did damages to most of the US coastline from Florida Keys up to Maine.

Not a busy season.

All Donna mostly....

....but "oh Donna!"

2015 Hurricane Season.

2015 punctuated by Joaquin C4 off SE Coast.

A rich area for stormy weather this year too!

Time will tell.

MJO is said to show up.

It was a No Show twice so far in 2025

Models have not been stellar.

Models missing something.

So I ask "what did seasonal forecasts miss?"

Wrote more than needed to today.

Have an awesome day.

Hurricane Season not over.

Remember September.

2nd to 3rd week should be something.

What I'm not sure...

...just my gut feeling.

Sweet Pumpkin Spice Latte Dreams

Or Pecan Cortada...

You do you..... I do me!

I had a Pumpkin Spice Frappe yesterday.

Next will try the Pecan Cortada.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Song playing on YT currently

Going with it

Such an Oldie Goldie lol.

Lots of girls named Donna 

born late 1960 & 1961

Li'l slow for me....

...wait I'll add another.

Whoah so much better!!!

Hurricane Season 2025. All of September to Come Yet Many Writing the Atlantic Off? Never Close a Book Til The Ending... 2020s Different. Season Not Over But Pumpkin Spice Lattes at Starbucks Today!!

 

So what can I say today? Fernand slowly fading away in the North Atlantic. More a reminder of Erin than anything else. Storms so often follow other storms, tracing their trail across the Atlantic on their way out to sea somewhere else.....

Remember 2023 just 2 years ago.

I bet other than Idalia

you don't remember many names.

Chronology of the season...

Really did not really begin til late August.

And, late August bought 2 Cat 4s.

Mediocre unmemorable storms.

Idalia after Ian

Both hit W Florida

What is it with those I storms?

This year we have Imelda

(don't say I didn't warn ya)

Cycles and patterns

Days fly by

Invests Remembered.

yet 

some named storms forgotton.

2025 so far has been consistent

2020s 

Half way through.

Many are writing off the season now. Only cold fronts moving across America out to the Sea. Others are banking on a Gulf Season where wandering waves stay alive until they get to Jamaica or the Yucatan and intensify into contenders. Is the East Coast Hurricane Season over, done.... dead? What about some Sandy or Matthew sort of storm that pulls North out of the Caribbean looking for a cold front to bond to before sweeping out to sea somewhere. 

This is Africa today.

Waves lined up ready to depart...

They have some color.

Still been a "meh" year for African Waves.

Yes it only takes one.

Erin was that one...so far.

Mr. Amazing Cantore says....

we might see our next wave on September 1st!

A contender wave......

There abouts anyway....

Currently... models think it makes it to the Islands.

Ironically not the always hot and ready GFS.

We will see.

Stay tuned.

Second half busy seasons popular in 2020s.

Don't write off the season....

...before we've turned the page to September!

I had a friend.....

who reminded me of Mr. Mistoffeless.

He did love CATS

Thought on him today...

..so this is for him.

But probably works for Jim too :)

Rum Tug Tugger is cute too!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Week til September. Models Quiet Today. How Will They Look in a Few Days? Hurricane Season Not Over Yet. But Fall is Here Early. Fall Means Real Dangerous Hurricanes. Pumpkins in the Store Huge Carib & Gulf Canes. So Enjoy the Quiet. Won't Last Long! Augtober 2025

 

Being honest.

Not much going on in the tropics.

Fernand has reached 60 MPH Winds.

But 1000 Barometric Pressure.

(was 1007 but dropped by 11 AM)

It's there in the middle.

A punctuation mark saying"

"Hurricane Season still here!"

As always after you have a monstrous hurricane, talking size and intensity, the tropics tend to take a week or so to rest, breathe and recover from all the wild energy. Every year is different, but that one hurricane tends to create a path for others to follow and Fernand a weak but named tropical storm is doing just that. The shear from Fernand actually impacted 99L as seen on various satellite imagery where they almost looked like one they were connected for a  while and the weakening of 99L saved the Caribbean and probably the US coastline a dangerous hurricane. Could have happened. Timing is everything. Had 99L come off the coast of Africa a little later like this week, it would have had a chance. And, while it's definitely not what it once was I won't count it out as EPAC Feed until I see it do just that. 

A wave is approaching the Yucatan - hot water!

Nearing the edge of the new frontal boundary.

Models may not see it - but I do.

Something could form around that front.

Near the Carolinas....

...or near the Yucatan.

99L looks like a fractured comet.

Yet watching it.

Not like there's much else to watch...

Africa fairly quiet.

I've said the whole season.....

...Africa has produced "meh" waves.

Subpar waves.

Barely there waves.

So when you wonder why the season seems so quiet you can also thank Africa, because except for Erin it really didn't produce any strong, spinning waves in August. And, Erin like Donna in 1960 may be the only tropical wave to come rolling off, causing death the moment it exited Africa and making it across the Atlantic as a threatening, huge memorable hurricane. That's it. Donna was the whole show and yet everyone thinks of 1960 as a year with destruction across the length and breath of the East Coast but they forget how quiet the rest of the 1960 was in actuality.

We were very lucky Erin was not Donna.

Close but no cigar.

It's the time of fronts!

Check that out 2 draped across the SE.

The second one is the real deal.

Lots of moisture in the Gulf.

It's within the real of Climo...

.. something could form close in.

Models  may not see it yet........

...they rarely see "surprise Pop Up Storms"

So end of August... early September.

I'm saying we could be tracking something.

Good news is.... There's a sale on generators.

Labor Day Sale.

You can find the link on Mike's site! 

Firman Generators top right

If you live where you get winter weather...

..as well as Hurricanes.

Now is the time to save bigtime.

They also have refurbished ones!

I've heard we may have a real Winter this year!

When Hurricane Season slides away.

But, we are not done yet with Hurricane Season.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

That's an incredible deal for anyone on generators!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Sweet Fall Dreams

Sweet Winter Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Ps we legit have Autumn Leaves in NC!

Not drifting yet but up in the Mtns soon!!

Took this pic in Raleigh yesterday.

Many trees have a slight blush of gold.

But wow that that one out!

Mr Fernand Has Arrived. 90L Upgraded. 99L Dreams of the Caribbean and Gulf (Maybe) Andrew & Katrina Memories

 

Fernand formed from 90L that was intiated after 99L so I guess it's true 2nd place tries harder? Seriously though it has a Cone that currently sails up into the Ocean a sort of Deja Vu Erin wanna be, but few are like Erin. I imagine we will have the name Fernand around for years to come at this rate. 

Moving on....

Invest 99L has 40% chances.

Some models like it now.

Irony as they didn't like it.... 

....now some do.

Should 99L survive...

...and thrive

It could be a hurricane to reckon with...

...more on that tomorrow.

So let's put this in motion....

Everything feels like it's on slow mode...

Slow motion.

The front is slicing slowly towards the coast.

Fernand is that blob in the Atlantic

Moving N with 40 MPH Winds.

99L is to the South of it.

Firing up convection.

Trying to close off a center.

A new wave emerges off of Africa. 

In Hurricane History News

We have 2 Canes competing for ATTN.

Andrew.... moved towards landfall

Tonight.... 8/23/1992

Andrew making it's move on Miami

Watching it hunkered down upstairs

an old 1920s Mini Mansion 

(was once upon a time....

...that has survived the 1925 Hurricane.

It survived Andrew....

...tho Andrew bobbled to the South 

just enough to spare Downtown Miami

Miami Beach

and slammed into South Dade

Homestead.

Palmetto

All of Miami felt like it had Andrew

And all of it did.

It's all a matter of degrees

and all the trees were bare... 

here there and everywhere

Had this poster on my wall forever...

Reminder

"worst case scenarios happen"

Remember that...

Look at that very tight eye wall...

eye.

strong cells slamming swirling around

Few slept that night.

The top two bands..top right.

When they slammed into our house.

The house shook, shuddered a bit.

House seriously vibrated.

Sounds were incredible.

Roar of the ocean off in the distance

... was heard between strong cells.

To the South...

I had a friend locked in her closet with her baby.

Husband, a best friend

Sat up all night with his back against the door.

I have a daughter-in-law who lived in Palmetto...

in a tub with a mattress over her & her mother.

Her father sitting against the door holding it.

As parts of the house blew away.

My son's girlfriend ...

her mother was pregnant with her

in the bathroom... 

..in the tub with a mattress.

Father holding door ...

..as the parts of the roof were ripping away.

Also in Palmetto

I say this repetitively...

...because if the house starts falling apart.

Yes... you go to the bathtub

with a mattress over you.

And you pray.

And records from 1926 Miami Hurricane

show.. ppl hid in the bathtub

blankets, mattresses whatever.

It's easy to say evacuate, not everyone can and not everyone will. Not everyone has to but a hurricane can go from Cat 1 to Cat 3 and then Cat 5 sometimes rapidly doing rapid intensification and suddenly you are dealing with a beast that was not kind like Erin and did not stay offshore and rearranged all the trees on your street, ripped huge ficus trees up out of the ground up and down my block on Miami Beach with their roots and parts of the grass hanging at odd angles like some monster from another planet crashed onto your block in the middle of Hurricane Andrew. A friend's neighbor's roof landed in her pool on Pine Tree Drive...whole roof just floating in her pool and all over the yard. 

The dark night of a Major Hurricane is like one run on sentence punctuated by transformers popping and things going slam in the middle of the night as they hit your house or rip the shingles from your roof and the sound of the hurricane moaning, screaming, howling. It's wild. Memorable. 

And to be honest we worried on water and storm surge and the house leaking and the house did not leak; there were few puddles even and the street was littered everywhere with signage from Arthur Godfrey Road a few blocks away and power was out for a long, long time. 

My friend holding the door shut to the closet in Kendall told me when we got together after, good thing you didn't come down to Kendall, no room in the closet for you and well ya ... Post Andrew get togethers comparing notes was a thing in 1992. Everyone had a story. 

And amazingly 13 years later to the day Hurricane Katrina formed off the East Coast of Florida and intensified as she moved towards our house in North Miami Beach on the mainland. But Katrina is a story for tomorrow.

The 2005 Cone for Katrina.

1st advisory

Jim Edds is a great storm chaser.

A good guy, a friend.

Love his post on X

Hurricanes Happen.

You can prepare.

You can evacaute.

You can hunker down.

But you need Hurricane Supplies.

You need a plan!

Get a plan!

Now while it's slow and quiet.

Worst case scenarios do come true.

It was a wild night 8/23/92

and a crazy morning 8/24/92

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

This popular song...

...became of the songs

from Post Andrew's Landfall.