A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
This Time of Year............. Cut Off Lows Are Fun to Watch.... Where They End Up Anyone Knows.
Hurricane Prep IS the Name of the Game to Help You Get Through the Week or Two AFTER a Hurricane. Water, Caffeine, Protein Drinks, Juice Snacks - Jack Daniels
Often it can take 2 weeks....
...after a bad hurricane.
To get your power up again.
Hopefully nothing that bad happens to you.
Either way you DO need a hurricane supplies kit!
So let's break this down in parts as some may wonder "what would I really need in that kit and why" so here we go. Remember, if you live Up North and you get a Hurricane that caught a cold front and once they leave.......it's cold up in Nantucket at night or Long Island in the early morning then you may need a blanket. I'm not sure you will need a "survival blanket" but it's possible. Either way you need to put the blankets you may need in a spot where they can easily be accessed and used if a hurricane is headed to your town. If you live in Miami or Key West you are laughing at this thought, but remember our USA "hurricane coastline" is not just Florida and Louisiana it stretches up to Maine.
Protein Bars. Don't laugh this off, they don't take a lot of work other than opening them up. We all need water after a hurricane, juices are good too and when there's sales on pouches of drinks for kids for school ...grab a few extra and hide them away somewhere in case of a hurricane. Some kids don't like water even in a hurricane and need hydration; some older people don't like water I know so you gotta do what you gotta do. Speaking of liquids you can get Protein Drinks. A friend of mine during a hurricane drank his grandmother's protein drinks and as he was an athlete he actually got hooked on her Ensure. He especially liked the chocolate one. An athlete has to do what he's got to do. If you will need a good strong drink, think Jack Daniels; it's gotten many through those long hot nights without AC in what's left of your house.
Moving on...many sites explain how to purify your water to use (it's a basic recipe) or you can buy water or use purification tablets. I don't mean to go long on this subject, but I can't go long enough AFTER a hurricane in Florida in August it is hot as hell and everyone needs water. Staying hydrated is important! Growing up we'd fill the bathtub for water that mostly was to be used to flush the toilet. You can Google that... You need water to drink. As for bathing after Andrew some Miami Beach neighbors did what Miami Beach people have been doing since the Roaring 20s and walked over to the beach and took a swim and others waited for it to rain and then the whole family stood out there sometimes with shampoo... you gotta do what you gotta do.
Emergency Lightsticks ....yes......so many uses for them; never hurts to spare one to keep the kids entertained without TV or their iPad or phone to use. Buy individual "tap lights" and make sure you have enough batteries ...they are especially good for scared children. Amazon has a wild array in all colors and sizes......
Gloves .... things can get dirty and in an unsafe way. One Bio-Hazard Bag....you can Google possible uses for that I don't want to go there tonight. Dust masks.....okay, that may connect to the need for a bio-hazard bag. FIRST AID KID! One Multi-function Pocket Tool is great... you know the ones that are circular, cheap and always sold before Christmas on X. Lots of Duct Tape..not for the windows but to repair things; so much needs to be repaired after a hurricane. Waterproof Matches or lots of good lighters. An emergency power station that can be bought on sale that charges your phone, works as a flashlight a siren (hide this function from your kids) and radios can be your link to the world; many will laugh at this but if you know you know. Unfortunately until you've been through a few hurricanes and I mean landfalling hurricanes not the ones that slide away offshore...you don't really know what YOU need to know.
List below from the a kit similar to the one above:
"Two 2400 Calorie Food Bars, Six 4.225 Ounce Water Pouches, One Water Purification Tablets, Two Twelve Hour Emergency Lightsticks , One Bio-Hazard Bag, Four Ten Inch Nitrile Gloves, Two Dust Masks, One Thirty Three Piece First Aid Kit, One Multi-Function Pocket Tool, One Ten Yard Duct Tape, Ten Five-In-One Whistle, Two Emergency Ponchos, Two Survival Blankets, One Box of Waterproof Matches, One Emergency Power Station: Flashlight/AM-FM Radio/Siren/Phone Charger, One 32 Ounce BPA-free Water Bottle, Two Hygiene Kits."
Again reading up on these helps you make your own priorities.
If you have a real caffeine addiction having canned coffee on hand works; even a warm can of coca cola will make you happy. If you have a really bad addiction buy Tylenol with Caffeine and use your water wisely. Seriously after Hurricane Andrew I was not happy that I had all that water I needed and it didn't occur to me to get soda or canned Bustillo. It took a long time to boil water with a Sterno enough to make instant coffee and no I am not kidding... you live you learn. Stock up on caffeine! $19.95 not a bad deal....go Amazon!
Again........Hurricane Prep is the name of the game.
It will help you survive the weeks AFTER the hurricane.
Subtropical Andrea Been Around Before.......Could It Happen This Year?? Stay Tuned! Shop or Window Shop on Amazon for a Hurricane Kit. Get Some Ideas & Look for Sales! 34 Days Til Hurricane Season
What's in a name? Andrea has been a Subtropical Storm a few times. We had a Subtropical Andrea in 2007and 2019 and both were in the Atlantic. A ripe breeding ground for early season Subtropical Storms. Andrea in 2007 wove it's way around the Georgia Bight going nowhere fast, but kicking up waves at the beaches from Florida to the Carolinas and they were as usual way higher in the Carolinas than Florida.
In 2019 a little further to the East.
Andrea drew a smaller path.
Kind of typical.
Both years had early activity than it was quiet.
Til July and August.
2007 Barry formed fast ...then nothing.
Much of the Hurricane Season is hurry up and wait.
Florida's Getting Hot! 90s - Tropical Waters Around Florida Be Warming Up Too! Will We Have Early Season Development? Something to Think About!!
Going to keep it simple today.
Simple Sunday.
Mike posted this....
.... yes he's right, it's hot!
I know it's hot because I have had 3 different kids send me a WhatsApp Message from Miami with the message "oh my God... it is so hot!" and 2 of them actually said to me "you cannot imagine how hot it is" and I tried hard to remind them that's why I live in North Carolina. I do love Miami and I am there often, but hearing how hot it is and how I couldn't imagine how hot it was made me think "maybe I should go visit the son in Denver or the daughter in Upstate New York!" but I just said "yeah I can imagine" and let it go at that. Validation to kids of any age is always important.
Then this morning Mike posted this hot orange image at the top about how hot it is in Florida and how the 90s are on the menu finally in Tampa. That usually happens around May when you wake up and go outside in early May and it's in the 80s as you're doing carpool! Eww. So eww. I'm just not a hot weather girl.
So keeping this simple this Sunday and I want to remind y'all that as the temperatures warm up across the Florida Peninsular...................... remember the water around it will be warming up fast too! They are intimately related ;)
And as the waters heat up the chances of early season development is always there. There's always a chance, especially when the water is hot, hot, hot!
A cute guy used to tell me "Keep it Simple Bobbi" with a smile and so that's it!
Simple.
Simply Hot!
Sweet Tropical Dreams.... 35 Days til Hurricane Season!!
Are You Worried on Hurricane Season is 37 Days Away? Questions on NHC and NWS and $$$........My Thoughts. Know YOUR Dangers (Do You NEED to Evacuate?) Are You Prepare? Do You Have a Hurricane Kit?
If you know you know...
... I know DaBuh from way back.
Good info, good music... always a smile!
It's 37 days til the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Let me say that again...
It's a month and a week.
2025 time moves fast.
Zoom, zoom, zooooom!
I try very hard on X to walk the line and be very careful of getting involved in political drama and it's 2025 so that ain't easy and everyone wants everyone to take a side and plant their flag. My messages here are not political as they muddy the message for many and if I wanted to do a political blog I would not be BobbiStorm. That said I studied meteorology and geology and oceanography for my degree in International Relations and I have many opinions that I keep to myself.
I have one message here. 1 message. It's a little over 30 days until the Hurricane Season so what have YOU done to prepare your home, your family and any thing or anyone you love to make it through the nasty, mean months of 2025?? Hurricanes can come early and some even have done so in May so you may want to really stop, think and get a clue. Old timers here I know ...know. Newbies to South Florida or Coastal Texas all think it's sunshine and sand and surf and yet they have never seen a storm surge nor have they prepared their homes on the water for the inevitable rising tide of a Hurricane's Storm Surge.
Many have asked me online or privately what I think about the 2025 Hurricane Season and with budget cuts will they (NHC) be able to do their job? The short of my answer is "yes" I do believe they will do a good, accurate job and it's important to remember that not all the money spent at NHC is for "making a Cone" properly. It's a huge part of their jobs collectively but there are many projects and programs that the NHC works on all year and they are all important.... you just rarely hear about them. And, as someone like me that has spent time with forecasters and others who work at NHC and AOML and many in the highest positions the one commonality I've always heard is how being in the top role you have to spend so much time asking for more money, a bigger budget and those financial squabbles are always distracting and yet important. I heard this in years that blue politicians were in control and when red politicians were in control.... they always want and need more money and it's not an easy job. I'd even add that it's way easier putting out a Cone and updating an Advisory with a new cone and discussion than it is dealing with the government trying to get more money and for larger budget let alone money that's been cut.
The NHC forecasters always do their best. The NHC researchers always do their best. The NHC Librarians try the best they can and that's not always easy as research materials often leaves the library; as a librarian myself I can tell you that makes librarians go bat shit crazy but it happens. As a sidebar, and I know this is true and I watched a Director of a city library go bat shit crazy insisting no one is to order any more of "them" because the them was bibles. The Bible is believe it or not the most stolen book in most libraries.
Moving on ............what makes me go bat shit crazy? What am I worried on this Hurricane Season? I'm worried that people go to the proper, correct sources to get the best info vs things they "hear" or "see" online.
When the NHC with lots of money, or not enough money (always asking for more money) puts out an incredible forecast with a spot on Cone and valuable advisories with discussion anyone can read ....I often get asked questions about some psychic who said a Cat 5 is about to hit Miami on TicToc and "why shouldn't I believe them as it's been a bad hurricane season" and when I try to explain IF a Major Hurricane of any kind forms it's going to be a problem for someone in the Gulf and more likely Texas to Louisiana. Apparently the Weather Psychic doesn't check the water vapor loop nor the models nor history of hurricanes when making predictions. And, yet.......I know people who in general are logical who believe a weather psychic or some kid with a whole entertaining routine on TicToc or YouTube more than they do the folks at the NHC that have spent their lives working, studying and tracking hurricanes. And, I will add local TV stations do stories about the "weather psychic" everyone is watching it doesn't help matters.
And the problem with YT and TicToc is that once you click on one .... you'll be offered a whole array of various psychics some who use Tarot Cards some who use astrological aspects and some who have a "spirit" that tells them things and seems tropically obsessed and warns which coastal city will be smashed by a Cat 5 Hurricane (it's always a Cat 5 not a Cat 4) and for the next week your algorithms will all offer you beautiful videos with computer generated voices that warn you about some hurricane that will strike some famous city on some important holiday weekend! Note NONE of them said nothing about Asheville specifically.... not that I'm aware of as no one asked me on X or in a WhatsApp message. I know it's hard for the NHC YouTube videos to compete with those incredible colored maps and special effects and the very sexy voice that explains slowly how your city will be destroyed in 3 days from a Cat 5 Hurricane. Sigh.......
Lord have mercy. Yes, I do believe in the Lord and no I am not discussing religion here neither.
I worry more that the general public will ignore discussion, watches and Cones until they are directly in the cone "for sure" after a Hurricane Warning has been issued and a third of South Florida is already on I75 headed to Atlanta. By the way, there is no logical reason anyone has to go all the way to Atlanta vs 'inland" somewhere such as Orlando or Ocala to a strong hotel and then ONLY if you live in an area where you have been told to evacuate.
But hey.........it's easier to get a third of South Florida or Coastal Texas or NC on the road headed inland than it is getting them to be properly prepared in May to ride out a hurricane in July when they will possibly lose their electric.
Less people are online currently searching for a generator they can afford than are shopping and hording non-perishable foods because some YT video told them there will be "Civil Unrest" and there is an Eclipse coming that will change the way we all............
I am not kidding. I'm serious. I trust the NHC to do their best even in difficult circumstances. I don't trust everyone in the general public to pay attention to them and I say this from past experience.
So yes money is always a problem and cut budgets call for a realignment of priorities and schedules and Lord only knows what they are doing but I am SURE....100% SURE the NHC and AOML and local NWS offices are doing the best they can to get out accurate forecasts for hurricane season. What I am not as sure about is whether or not anyone is paying attention to the NHC specifically vs the TicToc Psychic or the kid with the shtick who gets more hits than some of the best tropical meteorologists I know and I know many. And, I know sadly that until the weather begins to change and people wonder why their neighbors are packing up the car and there's no food left at Publix some ...especially newbies from somewhere Up North and Inland .....they wasted time ignoring messages about hurricane season.
Lastly 2 stories:
I was talking with Bill Read at at NHC program about the dangers of people taking inland flooding seriously. We were also talking about how those who do not need to evacuate often rush to do so making traffic worse for those who do need to evacuate. His example was that in Texas prior to Rita everyone watched their neighbors pack up the car and often changed their minds and also decided they needed to hit the road even though they were in an area that did not call for evacuations. And, granted it was 2005 and people suddenly were paying attention to the dangers of Hurricane Season. He said he had discussed it with his wife and neighbors. She called back a few times to tell him neighbors who insisted they were staying were packing up their cars and leaving. Well, when there's a hurricane and a cone especially in the year of Katrina suddenly everyone is cautious and paying attention. Ps Bill Read is a wonderful man and meteorologist who I'd guess knows how hard it is to be head of the NHC dealing with budget matters as well as getting the word out on the details.
Rita is known for the traffic jams sadly more than what happened.
2. One of the librarians who had moved to Miami from New York City who worked part time on the Reference Desk with me was totally clueless and not worried on Hurricanes when she moved to the tropical paradise. Note everyone in the library was overly exhausted from the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 yet she seemed totally oblivious to these dangers. When we were shutting down the library for the hurricane she wasn't worried. We were closed for weeks at a time that year, weeks in a month and that upset part time employees that didn't get paid for that time the library was closed. After we opened up the library again she came back to work and told us of her horrifying experience. She lived in an area where there were many apartments and stores and restaurants. Apparently the morning after the Hurricane without power she wasn't worried, she walked down the stairs in the building, down to the street... walked over downed palm fronds and made it past any downed electric lines alive and when she got to the restaurants that she usually went to for breakfast they were closed she freaked out. Closed!!! "Oh my God" she said........ I told her their was a hurricane and she responded in Manhanttan the coffee places are ALWAYS open. I stared, trying to breathe and not lose it and again said "they had no power, they were closed" and I asked "didn't you prepare at all" and her response was "I had snacks but I knew I could go get coffee if my power was out........." (she knew wrong)
I'll add Sue who worked with me said to her: "Don't you read Bobbi's blog??" which made me giggle but after I talked on where I thought Hurricane Charley would "turn in towards landfall" and I was right, Sue thought I was her personal Weather Guru or something :) Seriously......
I'll just leave it there and I did not make up one detail. Seriously???? That was when I really understood that in order to prepare people you have to think like the person who thinks they will be "fine fine fine" and sadly that's a whole lot of people. Well, until they go through a hurricane and then they read my blog or Dabuh's every post and suddenly spend all day on Mike's Weather Page and follow his every word on the daily videos. That's why so many people follow Mike, not because he gives pyschic messages from his dead Great Aunt nor does he explain how he hyst knows a Cat 5 Hurricane will hit Miami or New Orleans in 5 days even though there is no hurricane forming. Mike gives good solid formation!
The NHC does the best job to track hurricanes that they can even today in 2025 when they can still be unpredictable at times.
If you are truly worried on this topic and have an opinion reach out to your local Congresspeople and Senators and give them your thoughts, concerns and opinions. You don't have to fight with every cousin or old friend on Facebook who doesn't agree with you politically. Write your local representatives. I know in NC I get letters from various Senators asking for my thoughts on their involvement on specific issues. They want to hear from you. It's the best place to use your voice. It's more productive then arguing with your cousin two times removed on Facebook or Insta.
As for the 2025 Hurricane Season use the links on the top right and look into getting a Firman Generator. Or go on Amazon and watch sales for hurricane kits and supplies.
45 Days Til Atlantic Hurricane Season - 28 Til EPAC Begins! A Look Back at Winter Storm Patterns. Rare High Snow Totals Along the Hurricane Coast.
Let's talk 2025 Hurricane Season....
Let's talk patterns........
Inspiration for today's blog from Cantore !!
Doing research is like social media.
You have to click on the images....
...go deep to see all the data.
Often while looking ahead........
.....I look back at where we've been recently.
Sometimes patterns remain, get stuck a while.
They evolve into tropical scenarios ....
...after winter storm storm tracks.
Not always obviously....
.....but often enough to pay attn!
Will we have late season cold fronts? Fronts dangling in warm Gulf waters??
Then going flat and moisture festers???
This Winter was busy at the coasts with snow falling on cities that rarely get to see snow .... let alone huge amounts of snow or at least to take pics of pretty memories before the snow melts fast in the Southern Latitudes. I capitalized that as it's important to remember. Snow in Maine is no big deal, 7 inches of snow in Gulfport Mississippi is a really BIG deal!
That navy blue indigo color is a big deal.
Lots of snow...way above average.
It's also the coastline of hurricane country.
(except for Central and Southern Florida)
Only so far South measurable snow can go.
Great post by Jim Cantore.
So it's worth remembering.
Texas beaches got snow.
Nola got snow.
Gulfport got snow.
Florida Panhandle got snow.
Savannah, Georgia got snow.
Charleston got snow.
Wilmington got snow.
OBX got snow!
Sounds like a list of landfall cities.
Not snow.
Tho.......
Savannah usually gets backdoor impacts.
Helene in 2024 gave Savannah weather.
Savannah had 1.1 inches of snow on the ground.
Zooming in a bit on the SE
Greensboro inland got less than normal.
Raleigh less but it's is an average.
1st real snowfall in 3 years this winter in RDU
New Bern NC got 4.5 vs N/A (basically not often)
Augusta got hit bad by Helene...
2.7 vs 0.8
Same with Wilmington and Charleston... SNOW!
(when I say snow I mean on the ground not flurries)
Asheville 1.9 vs normally 10.2... a snow drought!
Savannah got 1.1 inches vs 0.0 inches.
Remember this is totally not scientific as much as looking at this Winter's data and the storm tracks and areas that were hot meteorlogically vs areas that were not. I mentioned often on X that the Southern Jet remained in place as if it was locked in. I watch, I compare and then I look back at my observations and see where I was right, what resonated and what wrench was suddenly thrown into the pattern such as a Major Hurricane that formed in late June and raged in early July hitting Islands that are normally in the hurricane shadow and and avoid direct landfalling storms such as Grenada!
Who had that on their Bingo Card?
As for 2025...
I'd say the EPAC season begins on time or early.
Been watching waves and convection off of South America.
EPAC begins May 15th!
A month away and looking juicy!!
I'd definitely say the Gulf and the SE coastline and even up into the Mid Atlantic may see hurricane threats this year as there's much talk that storms will come together closer in after the 55 yard line and when that happens there are often less "Fish Storms" that recurve gracefully, greatfully out to sea. Just talk right now, as tropical meteorologists and storm trackers and chasers shoot the tropical breeze. We can talk and post all we want but it all plays out in real time......remember that.
What's Going on in the Atlantic? Everyone Talkin.... Possible Subtropical Storm or Just a Storm ??? How Early Will 2025 Hurricane Season Start?
If you're on social media.
You have probably seen these models.
It's been 137 days since 2024 Season ended....
...seems longer than saying
46 days til Hurricane Season.
Many are hungry.....
...watching models.
The bottom line really is this:
Often this time of year convection in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas looks as if it may form into some sort of short lived subtropical system that's often picked up by an approaching frontal boundary and swept out to sea. They can, at times, be beautiful to watch and they always amp up the excitement about Hurricane Season being just a month an a half away! Getting closer every day.
Note the sharp line between tropical...
...and "wow it's cold in the Carolinas today"
Models do show something trying to wrap.
But....will the NHC pay attention?
Maybe...
Somewhere some model is always running....
...looking for possible development.
Questions........
The same way the hurricane season usually ends, it also begins. Systems in the Caribbean or out by the Bahamas try and develop into quasi storms; often an early Subtropical Storm in the Atlantic gets a name. Other times not. It's the NHC's game and they make the call. For now.... everyone is talking about it.
I had family in town this week for the Passover holiday. Yesterday we went to Lassiter Mills Falls (whatever it's called) with my little grandchildren and one of my older ones. Took a walk, played by the Falls... picked up various stones as the geology lover in me totally takes over in places where you see so many classifications of stones in one place. Water, wind and rushing water....yes it was awesome!
A Look at Hurricane Season 47 Days Away and Inland Flooding Dangers........Carolinas, Virginia and Most of the Hurricane Coast....
Love History............
..........Love Maps.
Small fast post.
Carolinas and Virginia.
Nice map of early settlers.
Note they all traveled the rivers.
They farmed in the river valleys.
They all dealt with new world storms..
As a young child in Miami when I first learned about the early colonization of America on Roanoke Island and the famous Virginia Dare who was born here but disappeared with the colony.... my first thought was "well yeah a hurricane probably went through there and everyone drowned" because I'm from Miami. Blaming the "Indians" seemed stupid, I didn't know much about plagues then, but I did know hurricanes.
I took a look at Google with it's everyready bunny AI to see what it'd have to say:
Note phrase "not the primary reason"......
.....oh........so it could be part of the reason?
Map of River Valleys.
Map of where people live.
Map of places that flood in a hurricane.
(note up by French Broad = Asheville)
Below is Virgnia.
I know not in geographical order.
People remember Camille for Pass Christian.
They forget it flooded Virginia where many died.
My beautiful New Bern after Florence.
Recently Helend.
This blog post was brought to you by the "Learn about Inland Flooding Threats this Hurricane Season" and BobbiStorm as all the color, drama, glory of hurricanes is always shown as it makes landfall at the evacuated beaches where every photo journalist, storm chaser and weather channel specialists are set up.....and yet once it punches inland and the river valleys flood fast the death toll climbs horrifically. Few stick around and ride through the small towns or take video from a helicopter but the death toll in the Carolinas and often Virginia is always high as all the towns are built in the river valleys as rivers were the method of transportation back in the day ....especially for farmers to get their produce out and even more so as the rich fertile river valley provided the best growing scenarios to bring forth a large harvest. Unless a hurricane hit during harvest time. NC Government JUST finished putting together relief bill last month for Helene that hit last hurricane season :(
Some links to share with friends ... please share.
I recently read an article about a Rabbi who was sent to work in the Pensacola area of Florida and he grew up in Sweden. I thought: "wow imagine moving there and seeing the warm tropical colors of the Gulf and the beaches and.........." suddenly it hit me "hurricanes!!! OMG that's not something you see in Sweden often."
Indeed he and his wife and family moved there just before Hurricane Michael!
I only know this as one of my kids was looking to go up there for Passover and was checking out the local Chabad to see if they had a Seder and he showed me this story. Welcome to Florida! Indeed.
If you are moving to Florida or Texas or the Carolinas.............be sure you are aware of our local Hurricane Season and it's tricky, lesser known "inland flooding" dangers especially if you live anywhere near a river or a creek!
Don't be blinded by a hurricane after you move to your new home in paradise !!
As for me.......enjoying the cool beautiful temperatures in Raleigh today and knowing the Hurricane Season is only 47 days away.... my mind is on hurricanes, the blog and satellite imagery. When Passover is over I'll dig in with more regular blogs and be back to my normal blogging!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
.gif)
