Catching Up With CSU 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast... A Look at the Analog Years. Do You Remember 1999?
Just wanted to add here first.......
....recently was in Colorado and saw CSU.
Took this pic going into Boulder!
After hearing about it for years.
Wild to be out there.
Love Colorado, open sky and winter.
CSU landlocked in colder weather....
...specializes in tropical forecasting.
Got to love it.
First and foremost...2025 Hurricane Season.
CSU report came out as you can see above.
Busy, but not quite as busy as 2024.
Close. Above Average.
Whatever average is anymore?
Strong possibilities some make landfall.
And that is really what's important.
We can talk numbers all day...
...but at the end of the day.
How many make landfall?
And where do they make landfall?
There has been much talk on the Gulf.
Tho whole USA coastline 51% chance.
So don't focus on one area.
Some say Mid Atlantic and NC.
Florida always watching...
Time will tell!
1999 is an analog year.
Something else to remember is as much as we focus on Major Hurricanes often ...the truth is sometimes you can have a small Major Hurricane hurricane such as Bret that was a Cat 4 in Texas in 1999 that made landfall in an area with a small population. That said .....7 people died and it did do damage in South Texas, but less than had it slammed into Houston or Galveston or New Orleans or Mobile. In 1926 a large, slowing moving wet Cat 4 Hurricane roared and slammed into the young city of Miami at the height of the Roaring 20s and the death toll was always a moving target and still is and may never be known for sure. I'd like to think if it happened today Miami would be prepared, but I'm not so sure as it's been a while since downtown Miami was hit dead on by a Cat 4 and oh ........that would be 1926 exactly 99 years ago. Worth remembering that a large, slow moving wet hurricane can pound a city harder than a fast moving small hurricane such as Andrew that ripped apart the Homestead area far to the South of Miami and yet spared Miami the worst destruction. Had Andrew been a much larger hurricane it's hard to believe this but seriously it would have been so much worse across a wider area. As bad as Andrew was it sped through farmland, nurseries and parts of the Everglades.
My point here is that all Majors are not equal and many Major hurricanes intensify out in the middle of the Atlantic and dance their way North bothering no one but ships at sea that need to adjust for it.
I've never been one that gets into the whole "15, 7 and 4" and how many ACE days will we have when it's April as we are not yet sure of what conditions we will be dealing with this coming Hurricane Season. I do love reading the CSU report for other information and I love comparing it with the updated one that will come out on June 11th. Between now and June we will see what really is evolving vs what models are trying to forecast and early season forecasts often miss the subtle nuances that make or break a forecast.
I love the geographical data, maps and analog years. So let's look at the Analog years shown below.
1996 was a mess for Carolinas.
3 storms visited the same area ...
...busy year.
1999 as I mentioned Bret was that year.
Chose Bret not because the year was important.
It was an interesting Cat 4.
Again location is important.
Busy year but most stayed out at sea.
NC in it as well.
2006
Quieter year... many out at sea.
2008 Busy.
Horrific for Haiti
Sat Image below tells the story.
Gustave was an evil star player.
Destructive path, multiple landfalls.
2011
A lot of ocean cruisers!
2017.......
Really we do not want to discuss 2017.
No more 2017s!!
Again location is everything.
Caribbean and Florida under the gun!
Texas will never forget Harvey.
Every hurricane season is similar in some way to a past season and totally different in other ways. Busy year, quiet year or an in between year what matters is track and location of landfall. Location is everything. We have had busy season with beautiful spinners that stayed out at sea. Hurricane Danielle out in the middle of the Atlantic is a good example. Danielle was in 2010 but it's a good example of a dangerous storm that danced in the Atlantic!
Earl later that year also traced the coastline.
Let's hope all Major Hurricanes stay out at sea...
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Not everything is as it seems.
Forecasts are merely forecasts.
El Nino
LA Nina
Neutral
What will we have in August?
Time will tell.
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
mostly weather on X
elsewhere ...who knows..
Who remembers the summer of 1999?
I do ;)
Let's takes a trip back ...
posted by BobbiStorm @ 1:15 PM
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