Winter Storm Claimed 60 Lives or More... People Missed Flights, Lost Luggage, Travel Chaos and January Thaw Setting in to Melt the Ice ... Won't Last Long ... 10 Days Away New Storms on the Way!

 

Buffalo is what we will remember....

...actually been hit quite a bit so far in 2022 with snow.

The face of the Winter Storm 2022:

Reed Timmer.

He will chase any type of real weather.

Hurricanes, Tornadoes and Blizzards!

Never Stop Chasing....

For many of us not living in areas where snow covered the driveways or ice encapsulated our homes making them look as if a Winter Wonderland Castle dropped down from the wintry skies.... for many of us it was about the Winter Travel Mess that happens when a Wild Winter Storm hits during Christmas Weekend! I mean it's the holidays....choose the one you celebrate or just celebrating time off from work and most people want to hit the road or fly off to see their family. Christmas Vacation is a thing and who doesn't want to be "home for the holidays" as the song goes? 

In my world I felt badly wishing for snow when my husband and some friends were working hard to make Chanukah Programs bests done not in a blizzard in Raleigh. I still prayed for snow but left it in God's hands and whatever happened happened. Nothing happened. No snow. And, when it's 10 degrees in late December and you don't have any snow you feel cheated. Raleigh is filled with people who moved here to get away from the snow or people in Florida hoping to get some snow; there are some locals who do love snow so ..........so we will have to wait until January. 

My two youngest kids decided to fly in for Chanukah and an early birthday present for me on the worst travel day of 2022 and luckily got here easily. Apparently that's a Chanukah miracle. Every headline is about the travel mess and angry travelers stuck in some airport often overnight and or stranded as their connecting flight never got off the ground

Southwest Air is in all of the headlines.

Headlines such as these make people wonder how that could happen, but as I fly Southwest Air often I knew it was almost impossible for it not to happen. I travel to or my connecting flights are often in the areas worst hit by this Winter Storm as many of those citie were and still are snowed in. Southwest Air has one of the most accomodating policies of any airline so I'm surprised by complaints that they weren't complying with rules. I actually travel Southwest Air not because of their take 2 suitcases for free but their cancelation policies are extremely generous. When my kids in Miami were younger and I moved to North Carolina I would call it "banking with SW" as I'd get a very crazy, cheap ticket on sale and if I couldn't make it I'd cancel it the same day and the money was there waiting for me to use the next time; no fears of spending the money at some huge sale at Sephora!! The full amount of money, not after deducting most of what the ticket cost me. 

"Southwest did apologize for the disruptions, saying that although the airline was fully staffed for the holiday, 23 out of its 25 top airports were affected by the storm"

If you fly Southwest as much as I do...you know that it was a particulary crippling storm for their airlines as well as MANY other smaller airlines in similar situations. I used to love JetBlue for their snacks (seriously) and the planes seemed nicer and there were less corny jokes from the crew on the loud speaker but their cancellation policies were ridiculously pathetic compared to SW so obviously I can live with a bag of peanuts over Blue Chips. I'll add in here Amtrak has the best cancellation policy around if you like to travel by train the money is back in your back account in days in full. Well it was, as I haven't taken a long train trip since Covid :( and it's been preferable to take road trips as we can vacation along the way in favorite cities.

I'm been offline for a few days as I was busy with Chanukah hanging out with the kids and I have to tell you they flew in on Thursday evening as the storm began to the West of me and I considered it a miracle they got here without problems. They flew American. They left when the storm was at it's worst and all the news was about Air Travel shutting down and then they got back to Miami without a problem on Sunday. Why is this a big deal? Because usually the plane you take back to Miami is coming in from Chicago, Detroit or Buffalo. I imagine American did a good job rerouting and again 23 of their 25 airports were not shut down from the Winter Storm! People don't understand it's not about the weather where you are taking off but where the crew and the plane is flying in to and if the plane or crew is snowed in you aren't going anywhere anytime soon!

Another son was flying up to Tallahassee from Miami to be with my daughter-in-law who was with her family for the holidays and their daughter Olivia's birthday. He paid extra money for early morning direct flight to be there in time for a late breakfat and no the plane did not take off. They rerouted him hours later to a flight from MIA to Charlotte in North Carolina and knowing Charlotte was hard hit by the storm and many places were without power I thought he'd never get back to Tallahassee but he got into Tallahassee around 6 PM. He spent the day in Charlotte Douglas Airport in flip flops and shorts. Those of you who follow Mike on Spaghetti Models can just pretty much picture Mike taking a fast flight in Florida and ending up in the middle of the Winter Storm in his shorts and flipflops. But he did get their for Olivia's 5th birthday so it was a win in the end. 

As for me I'm parked in Raleigh currently hoping to stay here til it snows or until hell freezes over and as it's that sort of Winter... I have extreme confidence it will happen soon enough. If not I'm scheduled to be in Denver in March hopefully the snow will still be there.

As for the WEATHER..... it'll be thawing out over the next week or so. 69 degrees on Sunday and in the low 70s next week so I'm thinking on going to the beach. I mean seriously?? But.... there is more winter weather coming down the road. 

As those systems move East.... you'll see what I mean.

Looks like a Hurricane style Low near Alaska

Close up and personal!

A week from this Thursday.

As far out as it gets.

But know the January Thaw won't last forever.

Get a suntan while you can FAST!

I know most of you are dreaming of the beach.

Works for me too....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram!

Enjoy the music and the dream...

Winter Storm Model Madness - Like in Hurricane Season. They Never Agree.... Until They Do!

Map for FridayDecember 23rd... 

As the models disagree currently it seemed like a good idea to go with an old fashioned Weather Map! You'll notice I'm sure how close the isobars around across the NE part of the country ...those tightly packed brownish lines show how the cold wind will funnel DOWN across that region bring cold weather all the way down to Georgia and Florida with the possible chance of a Carolina Snow or Ice Storm. Much like Charlie Brown's football it's often ripped away and promised again later in a week or so.

Mother Nature has a mean sense of humor sometimes.

Earlier today it showed me NC gets snow....

...but for the donut hole over Raleigh.

No words (happens often...)

So looking to the South....

GFS and Euro show a lot of agreement.

A low down by Florida.... 

The GFS always ready to party...

covers NC with snowflakes ;)

The EURO Grinch does not.

But next model run who knows??

Phil Ferro answers questions on Twitter.

Teresa from Coral Springs asks....

... "is this happening for Christmas Eve"

Phil said the models say yes!

He's better than a Magic 8 Ball!!

So whether you're in Florida...

...or the Carolinas.

In the Mid Atlantic ....

...yes it will be cold.

Will it snow?

Ask again tomorrow...

Sweet Snowy Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

I'm definitely praying for snow... 

...note for travelers it may be a mess tho...

Yesterday's Tornado Filled System Moves East... Rain, Ice and Snow. Will the Holidays Bring Us Winter Weather as a Present?? Stay Tuned. Definite Maybe ... Watching Models and the Pattern Set UP.

Image from Zoom Earth, awesome site!

Our storm system is on the move!

Snow to the North.... 

..extremely heavy rain in the Soiuth.

Check out that low in the Atlantic.

Eye like feature, wrapped up tight!

The tornadoes yesterday snaked through the Deep South, along the coastal communities killing 3 people and destroying the fabric of many people's lives as parts of their homes were ripped away in a way that only a tornado can do. They are called "Finger of God" by  many for the shear randomness of who gets impacted and who is spared. A tornado can slash through a neighborhood taking two or three homes and sparing the rest as if nothing had happened on the block and yet depending on shear location of your home! And, yet it's a scar that is there that shakes the whole area and reminds them of the randomness of the tragedy of tornadoes. Once your life has been touched by a tornado even if only a home across the street, down the block you are touched forever by the reality that out of nowhere, suddenly destruction happened. That happens when there is a fire on the block where you live, you never forget it.

Hurricanes are tracked for days, weeks sometimes as now days we watch Invests that form off of Africa working their way towards the Caribbean, up through the Yucatan Passage and then moving towards Louisiana. There's time to prepare, to run or to hunker down with needed supplies. But, a tornado can rip a home from it's foundation as if the fault line of an earthquake was beneath it's base.

That's a lot of tornado touchdowns!

I watched online while talking to my brother on WhatsApp of a radar image and the shape of the Mississippi clearly screamed New Orleans! We both know it well as it's one of our favorite cities and Nola indeed had Tornado Warnings. On the South side of the river in Gretna one touched down and other places. The river there snakes it's way in circles through the general area. If you are ever flying in to Nola on a clear day without clouds you must look down, because once you've seen it from the air you will never forget it.

The Southern edge of the front is now crossing Florida.

Well, Tampa to Orlando to St. Augustine!

Further North we have rain in the Carolinas.

Virginia has mostly rain.

But UP in the MTNS and high hills..

ICE is the issue!

Elevation matters!

Divides the rain from the frozen precipitation!

Latitude matters also!

Check out that blue dividing line!

Rain, Ice, Snow!

Speaking of snow........

...and the next system down the road.

Kind of funny and chuckling here, because I took this screen shot literally seconds before Mitch said not to run online and start...   Yes, that happened but it shows the reality of the situation in that many parts of the country that are not guaranteed snow may get snow IF the timing is right. 

This is the 3rd part of the Holy Grail of Weather Forecasting in the Winter.

Latitude matters!

Elevation matters!

Timing is everything!!!

Like those movies that end with the two lovers passing in the night in different directions, unaware the other is there ... the same sad ending happens if the moisture does not connect or "hook up" so to speak with the strong pulse of cold air. If the moisture misses your area you are left with frigid cold temperatures and warnings to let the faucet drip a bit so your pipes don't freeze! If they hook up just right, then your neighborhood will look like a snow globe covered in snow!!! Dry Winters rip the heart out of snow lovers as the dryness deprives us of snow. I'm snow deprived myself this December and would love me some snow, real snow falling from the sky preferably in the daytime so I can see it falling in all it's glory!  The snow shield may dip down into Noth Carolina and possibly even South Carolina IF those models play out. And, as always models disagree on everything. Mitch West Weather can be found on YouTube, he's good to listen to and we follow eachother on Twitter. 

So the last thing I'll say is ...if you are traveling the I-95 corridor today or know someone who may be ... make sure you're careful and go slow as it will be treacherous today.

A lot of good things on YouTube which I use to an excess sometimes when I want a fast round up of news, as most news stations offer their own agendas and don't actually cover all the news that's fit to print or was back when people read about the news the day after! Subjects of interest are easy to find on YouTube as is breaking news on Twitter if you know the right words to put in to get the exact news you wish to see as it is happening live!

Saw this story this morning from Thor News about the Soyuz leaking coolant (possibly, they think) which did grab my attention as I do so love news on this topic. Hope they can fix that up fast....

Thor also mentions it's Deja Vu Tornado wise!

He's right!!

Go figure same place hit twice in one years!!

We call that a pattern ... a pattern to watch!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/12/14/tornado-new-orleans-storm-weather/

 

Keep watching.

Winter Solstice is next week!

Officially Winter.

vs

Meteorological Winter.

Weather nuts always jump the gun ;)

Sorry but we are weather obsessed...

Have a great day.

Pay attn to weather warnings today.

More on possible holiday weather...

..end of the year winter weather.

And frigid air diving down into Florida...

... Florida lacks elevation and latitude.

Carolinas a bit luckier on that one.

But still... it's all about timing!!

Besos BobbiStorn

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.

Day of Deadly Tornadoes in the South ... Winter Weather to the North. It ALL Moves EAST Tonight and Tomorrow.

 

Monday I wrote about the threat of tornadoes and severe weather.

The threat verified, it's been a day of tornado warnings.

A mother and her 10 year old son died.

Multiple tornadoes with a serious line.

From New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle.... 

You can see here above how explosive this line is...

..and it will remain deep into the night.

Lots of warnings.

Geographically different regions.

Severe weather and tornadoes in the coastal parts.

Flooding further inland.

And to the North near West Virginia.. 

..and it's nearby states Ice Warnings.

Pennsylvania, Eastern Maryland.

To the North their are Ice Storm Warnings for Applachians.

As I said earlier, elevation matters!

Weather turns serious and sometimes deadly in December as many of us wish for snow falling silently at night leaving a cover of snow to wake up to a winter wonderland. Often such dreams as denied or postponed and yet the severe weather barrage of warnings come fast and furious. 

Sometimes after a long day, and it's been a long day, I like to put on The Weather Channel and watch in an old school sort of way ignoring the War in the Ukraine and various partisan politcs on the "News Channels" and opt out of comedies or dramas and just watch TWC show me the weather. It's on Mute (too many commercials, I'm sorry... but loud commercials late at night are not my idea of entertainment! I mean how many times can you watch Sweet Home Alabama?? In my case..........a lot of times. Tonight watching TWC!

There's a tornadic cell in Florida, my daughter-in-law is visting her mother with the adorable Oliva and Milo there for the holidays so I'm paying closer attention than normal to the Florida Panhandle. Tallahassee does get weather and after life in Miami it's like a touch of winter with cooler temperatures. But cool weather in the Deep South brings dangerous weather all too often in December. My family had property in Quincy nearby years back so I know the area well as my Grandma Mary would say "it's gets cold up there" and probably something about long underwear in the Winter ;)  Now I'm in North Carolina where it was in the 20s last night and Jack Frost left a dusting of frost so thick it looked as if snow had fallen briefly on the rooftops.

Look at that frost, really looked like snow had fallen.

Cars covered too but the rooftops caught my eye.

I just want snow!

I know there's a song about wanting... 

Stay safe and pay attention to weather warnings.

All of this slides East.

And there's more trouble down the road.

Cold Holiday Nights ... 

Stay warm!

Sweet Snowy Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.

Ps... Will talk on that weather tomorrow.

Tonight... heed all weather warnings!

Updated! A Lot of Talk About Winter Weather. And, More Severe Weather in the South. The Great Divide. Those Who Get Snow & Those Who Want Snow.

Euro for Tuesday.... 

..threat tornadoes, severe weather to the S...

Out West we have snow.

And the whole system slides East.

Note this is for Thursday!

Deep South has a strong signature for weather.

Snow in the Middle of the Country..

Up North where it usually falls!

This is Thursday 2 days after Tuesday Wxr Mess!

Saturday whole North of US and Canada snow issues.

GOM develops a Low at the tail end of the front.

Not tropical, just messy weather.

Week from now Appalachians get snow.

A bit even down South.

But high up elevation wise.

But look out to the NW.

And up towards Canada!!

Cold weather on the move.

Possible Ice Accumulation this week!

Again elevation matters!!

Whole mess gets messier.

Damp, cold weather holding sway.

Today, this week and down the road....

...if models are correct and if the cold can control the scene.

Then some places further South will get snow..

..with the next system you know is there!

I think personally we shouldn't look at this winter specifically as a La Nina winter and watch the progression of the fronts in real time as well as the progression DOWN of the cold if the set up plays out the way the long term models show then we could have snow and some frigid temperatures. 

Playing it day by day for now.

Yes, that's what I say in Hurricane Season also but there's truth to it as models can flip flop often, especially early in any winter season and promise more than they can deliver. But oh what a delivery it would be to get snow during the holidays and the last week of the year!

More to come tomorrow......please read what I read below as it all still applies!

* * * 

It's Idaho. 

No surprise there!

This is that in between time of wishing on winter weather and wondering why the winter weather always  misses you. Watching people in Wisconsin and Wyoming watching snowflakes falling but you live in Virginia and North Carolina but not West Virginia that has the elevation so gets the snow.  

There's a lot of talk about a pattern set up that would create blocking and the right sort of Miller Type Storm (not to be confused with beer) that could deliver winter weather during the holidays and near the New Year. 

Twitter and what's left of message boards are all abuzz with the possibilities. Later today or tonight I'll go into more detail regarding models that as always do the Texas Two Step in wild predictions and then grabbing them back, but some consistency is in the models... enough to hold out hope that "there's a chance" many people will get some winter weather this holiday season.  It might not be the type you were hoping for as it's hard to make a snowman with ice but it's too early to buy into any one model for any one day but there's a chance.

It was cold enough in Raleigh to have an ice artisan make a Ice Memorah for children at an early Chanukah Festival. You can't really do that in Miami, but in Raleigh the temps stayed low enough to cooperate with the artist who did a beautiful job. 

When lit at night they are spectacular.

Palm fronds are wonderful but love my ice memorahs!

I'm a winter baby at heart.

Capricorn. 

Yes I know, we sound boring but we aren't!

So know...there's a chance.

That many of us will get Winter Weather.

Or a taste of Winter this month... 

Never tell a person in the Carolinas or Georgia it won't snow.

I mean as long as we have a chance.

We're smiling.

Well most of us weather types are smiling.

Models more than 50/50 in some places.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbibstorm on Twitter and Instagram

Invest 99L Holding at 50% Maybe. Seems Like the NHC Doesn't Want to Commit! Fog, Rain & a Stuck Pattern Over SE

 

Invest 99L Out in the Atlantic.

Tracing Semi Circles on satellite imagery.

NHC seems content to point it out...

...but not commit!

A front is draped across the SE.

Basically stuck.

Reinforced by moisture from the EPAC

Arctic Fronts not dipping DOWN yet.

A few early teasers owed to Hurricane.

What goes up... pushes something down.

Transferance of air...

...is what cyclones are all about.

Invest 99L 

NHC on the fence.

50/50 chances.

Out there ...going nowhere.

As for me.... it's a foggy morning in Charlotte and that's where I'm at and of late it seems to be my second city. Though on my Weather App it's my third city after Miami that still is officially second.  Fog always makes everything seem a bit surreal and I like that. Weather is a muse and it makes a writer feel poetic as words and thoughts flow easily when meteorologically inspired. The climax of The Great Gatsby takes place on the Longest Day of the Year when it's so hot and there's no air anywhere; hope I didn't spoil that one for you.

My first trip to Charlotte I drove in with my husband after driving up through Georgia and South Carolina on a December foggy evening and the Queen City was cloaked in the thickest fog I've seen since I left LA. The lights of the city just appeared far off in the distance like a colorful, alien glow til the shape of the hotel finally came into view partially hidden by the fog. Yes, it was that thick. Miami rarely gets a fog like that though in Santa Monica one year the fog "rolled in" fast and furious and we had to race outside to bring everything inside that was set up for the afternoon lunch on the patio as fog... low lying, fast moving clouds rolled in so fast that before the whole buffet was taken inside you could not see the garage. I knew I was not in Miami anymore.......

Tropical breezes almost all year round. If you like weather that rarely dips below 75 degrees as a high and is usually  more like 90 degrees then Miami is for you, if not try San Diego where it's warm, dry and is prone to cool mornings and very little rain. 

Enough weather talk I have things to do and places to go while here.

Have a great day.

Enjoy the day. 

Hope you get the weather you'd like. As for me I'd like winter weather right now, but it's a process in December and we aren't there yet.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.

Invest 99L in the Atlantic! Variety of Weather Across the Country

This partially naked Invest looks fairly good.

I mean it's December.

But definitely a center there visible.

Talking Subtropical here.

Owen next name up.

 50% chances from NHC

Showing models this way.

Middle of the Atlantic.

Large variety of weather across the USA

This is not much of a system with regard to our own homes, however there are many ships at sea and it has a long ways to go before it sleeps. It has a short window for development and the chance to get a name, but it's possible.

Rain in the Carolinas.

Tennessee and Georgia.

Virginia... you get the idea.

And the rain....

Otherwise I'm busy this morning and time is limited. I'll update later today if anything happens out of the ordinary. Have a good day! 

Ps ... also know these systems do up the chance for waves at some of our beaches depending on how large this becomes and what it does or how long it takes to skedaddle away!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps ... If only it was snow but it's rain. Consistent for the Carolinas ...

Is Owen Forming? December Named Storm of Some Kind Out at Sea... Atlantic Problem. Cold Weather in the Carolinas. A Look at 1886 a Wild Hurricane Season & Epic Southen Winter Weather Afterwards. Will History Repeat?

 

The purple splotch last week went blue, yellow and orange today.

It's screaming "name me already" 

And that's why I watch this map always.

I'll be honest, I have been watching this for days and wondering when the NHC would throw in the towel and cover it during the official "off season" now that we are in December. The EURO and the GFS have been in agreement for a while, run after run, and yet nothing until finally they did. There was a purple splotch on the map for days and you know purple splotches appearr before yellow on the map above and yet nothing. 

With that much agreement AND you could see it on the Water Vapor it was obvious it was going to happen. I didn't post as it's not moving this way but it will take up a large part of the Atlantic! 

My tweet from December 1st! 

And this is why I love Twitter.

It's not a political thing in any way but I can tweet things there I might not yet post here. I can find model discussion by weather experts who are incredible at picking out the real storm from the ghost model runs. I can get information from meteorologists regarding thoughts on Winter Weather months from now and if something happens in the world new wise I can get details fast from reliable sources rather than listening to every cable news station that packages the news according to it's own political agenda as they all do that. I don't have to read through hyped links of odd stories to scroll down to the story I want and then be led to a website that spams you or insists you give them money to read an article. Twitter is the fastest source of "news" weather and sports there is and you can tailor it to your needs. You can also block people (I so rarely do but some do more often) and block even a "word" you don't like. On Facebook you have to debate upsetting the family because you stopped follow Aunt Martha or Aunt Martha's boyfriend because you could not deal with the nonstop alerts on their every thought. And, yes you can mute them but you'd feel kind of awful if you found out the boyfriend died or you didn't know Aunt Martha passed away because you didn't want to read her tirades on society but you still kind of feel sad the old battle-axe kicked the bucket. 

I digress.

I like Twitter better than Facebook.

Nuff said.

There's a possibility Owen is forming.

What designation the NHC might give it....

...time will tell.

What pray tell does December do with this??

A few loop de doops.

A named storm if intensity forecast verifies.

Stays offshore.... 

Kind of cool.

Oh by the way it's kind of cool here today.

It's 43 degrees in Raleigh.

It has warmed up to 43 degrees.

Not cold enough for snow...

...and you need moisture for snow.

Snow is moisture.

 A

I'm a lover of weather history and maps.

So old weather maps just totally do me in!

1886 the Deep South had heavy winter weather!

On this date in history....

...to me that's tropically relevant.

1886 was a historically bad hurricane season.

1886 before satellite imagery!!!

One can only imagine how many storms were out at sea.

The Indianola Hurricane I've written on much was 1886.

This hurricane wiped the thriving town off the map.

I'm quoting the text on Wikipedia here but know on it's way to Texas it severely impacted other islands in the Caribbean as well as changing the history of places such as Key West as so many ships were wrecked and some survivors made it to safety in Key West where they became early founders of the city deciding after suffering being tossed about from that storm they really didn't need to get back on a ship and go on to Texas!

"In Texas, the hurricane obliterated the town of Indianola that was only just recovering from a powerful 1875 hurricane on the same location. At Indianola a storm surge of 15 feet from Matagorda Bay overwhelmed the town. Every building in the town was either destroyed or left uninhabitable. "

A lesson learned in 1886 and people are still learning today after the devastating storm surge from Hurricane Ian in 2022! This is as basic as it gets whether you remember the Galveston Hurricane or Camille or the Great 1926 Miami Hurricane before they used names and yet we struggle with it every single storm, every year trying to convince people to understand the power of storm surge and water. You can hide from the wind but you have to run from the water, it's that simple. That basic.

So little old me is wondering if 1886 was such an impactful year especially in the South, will we get a winter like 1886 here as well in the Deep South? Always wondering on weather...

That's the EURO for Decemebr 14th!

It'll change, it always does.

The day furthest away always promises...

..weather that rarely comes.

Be it a hurricane or snow storm!

Way of the world with models.

Stay tuned.

And there's our now orange circle!

Owen is out there somewhere it seems.

Will it be followed by Southern Snow?

Stay tuned!

Sweet whatever weather you love most dreams!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Indianola_hurricane

Storm surge just pumpled that town.

A point in history.

A lesson on storm surge.

Learn from it!

Rare beautiful song by Willie.

And Wilie is all about Texas.