A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, January 31, 2022
Mother Nature Remembers Texas, NM, Oklahoma, Missouri and Other States Missed in the Coastal Blizzard of 2022! NE Wins.... Noreasters Are Strong Like Hurricanes! Weather Matters Always...
Mother Nature remembered........
...she forgot the Middle part of the Country.
She's making up for that this week!
Dave Schwartz from TWC loved the Wizard of Oz.
So this one's for you Dave!!
Mother Nature coming at Arkansas, Texas & Oklahoma!
I'm going to take a break today and maybe tomorrow, unless I get some quiet and get in the mood to write a bit. Winter is not over. February flings snow and ice at many places that have some how until recently avoided Mother Nature's Winter Gone Wild of 2022! The exodus from New York after Covid has been epic, and now I've had friends tell me they are done... they were done but the Winter Weather this week did them in and they are moving to Florida. Good luck renting an apartment or finding a house to sell! My son is in the Real Estate business there (actually my brother is too) and just finding a house to show that doesn't have an offer on it is almost impossible. I'll add that the construction business in Raleigh is through the roof all during Covid, what was a bust for stores in Malls seems to have been a BOOM for the real estate market.
I live in a fairly nice area just North of Raleigh, obviously called North Raleigh, where many homes back up to or are adjacent to a golf course. The two homes in the above picture that I sent to my brother who loves the street views here to show him how fast it's changing and these two houses were put up literally overnight. Let's say in less than a month there was a beautiful, older statetly home then an empty clearned lot and then POOF 2 homes on both the lots that were sold to builders buying up any house they can find just to knock it down and put up a new home equipted with all the amenities many new buyers want. The old homes were well maintained, just the kids moved away and demographically it was a good neighborhood to target for sellers thinking on moving closer to their kids and grandkids or maybe just closer to the sun and a green golf course that they can play on all year long.
Weather impacts everything not just our day to day lives but from the Real Estate Market to why one country covets the land that grows wheat and for most of our written history was their own personal bread basket! Why countries want warm water ports that are not frozen all winter. Why you may want a nice condo down in Myrtle Beach near a golf course and just a few blocks from the ocean. Weather matters.
On a personal note I have decided to never complain again when someone from New England explains they aren't afraid of a hurricane because they have Noreasters! I'm just gonna let them win that argument, because after this last one that brought historic levels of snow, hurricane force wind gusts and a storm surge that flooded parts of Nantucket... I'll never even try arguing that one ever again.
If you want a really good headsup on this week's weather please check out Larry Cosgrove on Twitter or LinkedIn or any social media you prefer. He is excellent at weather but especially long range weather patterns and he always has a special place in his heart for Texas where he was on the air for a long time and knows that area very well. https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove That's a graphic from his Facebook post today and he explains how Texans won't be happy to see Winter make a come back nor will a good swath of the country that may get Ice as well as Snow and where it will go... oh look he can make a storm track!
I'll be back maybe tomorrow or the next day, check in often and see what's new in the world of weather. Weather that is not so tropical but truly I'm enjoying this winter in Raleigh. February in Raleigh and March I should be in Miami for a bit.
Much love and thanks for reading along.....
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter usually weather, Instagram ...whatever ;)
Ps my brother is a huge Elvis fan, yeah he's the type who dresses up as Elvis for Mardi Gras ;) (my other brother not the Real Estate Appraiser) and we all love Texas ... ;) my brother Jay loved this song as a baby. He'd stop crying when we put it on...........it was on often!
Updated!! Winter Storm ... Blizzard Warnings UP for East Coast from NC to Maine... TRAVEL Dangers I95 - Jersey Turnpike! Stay Informed in Real Time on Watches and Warnings. Oh Yes, Florida is Going to be Cold... East Coast Cloaked in Watches and Warnings from NWS.
The Coastal Storm aka Blizzard 2022
AKA SNOMG!
It's coming together.
On all levels.
Again note how this one area covers so many states from New Jersey to Pennsylvannia to Delaware to New York.. no man is an island in a winter storm such as this and everyone needs to do what's best for themselves to carefully, cautiously get through this storm SAFELY. I heard someone on TWC talking and I didn't stop what I was doing to see who it was as I was trying to get dinner up so I could play here online watching the storm. And, she said I believe her father who was a ?? policeman?? perhaps from NJ said that the only way to get through a storm like this was with a 6 pack of beer and find a chair at home and hunker down. I'm sure my mother would have prefered chocolate cake! But my mother didn't do Winter Storms she considered anything North of Palm Beach as "Up North" but tomorrow morning Palm Beach and Miami are going to feel like they are Up North and wind chills may be below freezing in many of those cute little suburban areas.
Because it's all about the WIND......... the WINDCHILL.......even Florida gets Winter Weather temperatures from this particular winter storm covering the whole East Coast and coming together as I type.
Radar shows snow on the move!
Down here in Raleigh ...snow is moving into North Carolina.
Virginia will be cloaked in snow for a bit.
Coastal storm ... will be wild at OBX.
I'll enjoy it in Raleigh.
Check your local NWS or just go to Google.
Google wills how you hour by hour your forecast.
It's no longer about models.
But about what the storm itself delivers.
How far West the impacts will be is the question.
Newest models show inland impacts.
Do NOT travel on I95 or any highway ...
....in the warning area.
If you do take food, blankets and winter storm supplies.
You may be a great driver but that other person........
....who loses control and plows into other good drivers.
Just saying.........hunker down.
Stay warm!
Coastal Blizzard!
A good site to follow.
A plethora of links, loops and information for Winter Storms.
One feature I love is the Twitter Roll Mike has...
You can scroll through Jim Cantore Tweets....
.....to Government Tweets.
Maybe even my tweets.
It's almost like Mike has his own Weather Channel.
All the tropical people, even the Hurricane Hunters are involved with the coverage of this historic Winter Storm and in a few days we will know if it broke records, we will know where and when everything happened.
Now is YOUR time.......... to make sure you have what you need to stay warm in case you lose power and the heat goes out. Hopefully you don't. But this is one storm to remember on many levels and it worries me that in the past we have written and forecast and explained and begged people to take it seriously and then after the worst happens (let's say Hurricane Ida) everyone seems shocked, surprised and can't believe it happened.
We have to try hard to get the word out. Mike from www.hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com does a great job so pay attention to his site, the NWS website for your area and well ... Just Google your city and the word weather!
Doesn't get any easier than that!
Stay warm, sweet tropical dreams...
...or snowy dreams.
Or whatever you wish to dream...
BobbiStorm
***
Keep reading below, it's all still relevant!
Updated 4 PM
There's a BLIZZARD COMING! Drudge Knows!
He's a big weather geek, don't ask me how I know ;)
Bad Blizzard not an Ice Cream Blizzard...
Social Media is all over it!
From Thor to people concerned on the Jersey Shore.
Let me repeat this "not since 1,484 DAYS"
That's a long, long time.
Winter is Back in Season.
Like high heel boots that flirt with the knee.
So prepare. It's coming.
And a huge area will get impacted!
It hasn't formed but it will form.
Would they send Hurricane Hunters in for no reason?
Think about it.
Current image below. NAM.
Short term forecast tool.
Note this includes Delaware.
A beautifuls tate and part of the I95 Travel Mess.
To find out your weather impacts!
Go to Google.
Update frequently as this evolves in real time!
Type in your city's name and the word "WEATHER"
BOOM!
Winter Storm Warning!!
Currently we don't see the storm yet.
Weird to have warnings and nothing on satellite imagery.
This is a Winter Storm NOT a Hurricane.
But it may deliver strong Tropical Storm Force WINDS!
On top of blowing snow.
There used to be this great Unisys Water Vapor loop that was 12 hours long and it was easy to stop and see things coming together or degrading and slipping away. See the image above. It's the beginning of the loop. Note the bottom image and you see something really digging down and the last image of this loop almost looks like a hurricane symbol forming over Southern Iowa and Missouri. It's beginning to dig and twist and do it's thing. Impressive to watch in it's early formation stages of what will be the blizzard of late January 2022. A bit too early for Groundhog Day but stay tuned, there's more where this is coming from and it will be nasty, cold for Mister Groundhog!
It's a good loop to save. I have it bookmarked as ATS. It's a long story... WV Atlantic etc.
Again mositure in Gulf of Mexico and off the Carolinas.... a small dip is noticeable in the MidWest. But, when the steering currents kick in it takes a dip and a swing like a fancy dance move and suddenly from seemingly nowhere there is a WINTER STORM and while everyone is worrying on the NYC Metro area or the BOSTON area. In reality the real problem could be I-95 travel corridor and places such as NJ where the highways may be cloaked in heavy snow with winds of say 30 to 35 MPH which means basically blowing snow! This also impacts the Jersey State Turnpike if you thought that was an option...
And when I say NJ I really mean the general I-95 corridor from NYC through NJ down to Philly and towards Maryland, it's going to be a mess. Delaware, Philly, Newark... you know the drill if you travel that part of the country often.
So this is me thinking out loud being me.
It's my blog, my weather diary.
The kids bought me a new phone as a present, it's a nice present and they upgraded my iPhone to the latest model and yes the Facetime is nice for the kids and their kids but honestly little grandkids don't really care but it makes the kids (parents) happy. I'm more an Android person and I can do things with my Android that don't work as well on the iPhone but the Apps are better and you don't really care do you?
The point is whether you see it or you don't, whether you understand it or you don't, if you live in NY NJ NE DC to Maryland area (including Delaware) you ARE getting a Winter Storm and someone is getting the BULLSEYE.
BUT THE WHOLE AREA..........the large geographic area will suffer delays and disruptions from this storm and power outages are possible, accidents, people stranded on I95 trying to get to Florida for Winter Vacation... and as you remember after Hurricane Ida exited over this EXACT REGION being stuck on the highway during such an epic, historic weather event is NOT A GOOD IDEA!!
Someone gets lucky and someone doesn't... . someone gets this head on and everyone who hates snow just hopes it will be a busted forecast but hoping and wishing doesn't make it so. CAT adjusters from the Insurance companies are already getting into place and power crews from other areas are on the way to the storm stressed area.
Will this storm form an eye like feature? It could. Hurricane Recon already went into the storm. They don't waste gas and time for no reason, it was to help obatain valuable information to bring you a way better forecast than we have had as mostly we have had flip flop model runs.
One thing I am grateful for, personally, is the move to Raleigh allowed me to understand how extremely difficult it is to forecast a Winter Storm and to nail it down the way we nail down forecasts for tropical weather 5 days out with a fairly accurate cone!
It's a Low Pressure System. It is cyclonic at times and until that center forms IN REAL TIME we can't nail down the forecast exactly as timing is everything as is the location the Low forms before it catches it's wild ride with the Jet Stream!
2002, 1978, 1968 and 1997 are years with high storm totals in Boston, I know this because I'm watching Bernie Rayno on Accuweather on my Roku. He's good, learned that during the hurricane season. I'm going to bookmark those years to check out their hurricane season later. He really does a solid job giving data and details and the devil is in the details so that's important.
In NC I am expected to get some snow. Probably just a dusting but any snow here is appreciated.
What is really appreciated is a good forecast discussion from the NWS and the best I have seen is from NWS Mount Holly that covers an area near NYC and NJ and Philadelphia! What happens in NYC doesn't usuallys stay in NY as NJ is integrally connected to NY as Long Island is to New England. State boundaries don't tell the story when it comes to weather. And, my daughter who lives in a suburb of Monsey is literally half a block from the state line of NJ. Areas merge together weather wise and otherwise.
This huge weather storm will merge together weather wise and otherwise.
The link above is for the graphic below and it shows the story. This is a mutlistate event and no matter how much you want to focus on SNOW start focusing on WIND because WIND is what a BLIZZARD is all about. j
Like a wild Hurricane passing the Outer Banks of NC and quickly going Extratropical, this is just the opposite. This storm is forming off the Outer Banks and coming together and catching a fast ride on a crazy Jet Stream that is dipping down to pick it UP and suddenly BOOM! There's a Blizzard! How fast is it moving actually? Timing is always integrally related to intensity and track!
Again I95 Storm could get slammed in a historic way.
Boston can have a historical snow storm.
Cape Cod is well you know.........Cape Cod, sticking out there saying "come and hit me with your best shot!"
Listen it's late January the heart and soul of Winter when dreams of Spring and baseball linger in the back of our head, but it's WINTER and it's a winter that has exploded old school style delivering in my neck of the woods 3 different snow systems and more on the way over the next few weeks. We barely had measurable snow in the last 3 years and now BOOM SNOW IS BACK IN STYLE!
So buckle up and know that something is coming, something is forming. If you live in Florida it's going to be cold, cold, cold but you avoided a blizzard back home so stop bitching and real born and raised Floridians are thrilled they get to wear winter clothes and have a real winter blast before the heat comes on hot and heavy when winter is over and lasts for months and months.
Stay tuned.
I'll update later today but really until this all comes together off the coast of North Carolina and catches up time wise (timing is everything) with that streaking, dipping system that is going to give it a fast ride to it's destination I can't tell you if Hartford or Boston or Long Island gets its the worst before it slams into New England but either way.........NJ a state that in meteorologically includes Philadelphia and NYC and by the way if you are in Atlantic City...hunker down and post photos to Twitter or Instagram.
Much love...
Thanks for reading.
I'll be online later today staring at loops while I cook up a storm watching this all to come together.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever......
PS...........STRONG WINDS IN NYC mean the winds can be intensified in weird ways where there are high buildsings and the wind whips around the buildings and IF you do get the blowing snow well it's going to be something you haven't seen in a long while. Eastern Long Island and Cape Cod know what's coming the question is are you prepared and do you know what is coming?? Old things are new again, winter is back in style so get your boots, don't drive and if you do take a blanket and supplies with you in case you get stuck in snow because a Winter Storm is going down!
Every satellite shows various layers in the atmosphere.
Models try to show what will or could happen.
Models run again hours later.
New Model Run.
So let's go back to Hurricane Season when I say over and over that until we have a true defined center of low pressure and Recon goes into the storm to gather data we can not get the best model output. Once we have a true defined center we can know more what is going on and info, data collected around the storm shows us which way it will most likely travel, speed and other variables hard to pin down until that happens.
This was Dorian. We had a storm. We had a center. We had data from that center and the surrounding atmosphere. We had a forecast that it would NOT hit Miami evne though it looked dangerously close.
Raleigh may get some snow.
How much snow the I-95 Corridor will get I can not say.
How much snow NYC will get I cannot say.
How much snow and when NE will get... can't say.
I will blog this evening on what I think is the most likely outcome for those who are worrying and want information. Again check with your local NWS every 6 hours or so online to see what they say they are the best at forecasting for your specific area.
Roller Coaster January 2022 Stock Market. Winter Storms. Florida Colder Than Alaska?? A Look Back at Disneyland in the 80s ... Partying All Night Long!
Roller Coaster Weather.
Roller Coaster Stock Market.
The temperature graphs here look similar.
Roller Coaster January!
The Stock Market was so crazy yesterday the Dow went down 1,000 points then recovered and ended up a few points up. My husband is a Financial Planner and he has the various financial networks on when he's in the house and yet yesterday I kept watching them because ....well ......it was more interesting than TWC!
What a financial storm yesterday was and today seems just as unstable.
There's talk of a huge storm, a Noreaster... (I always spell that wrong, weird spelling) ... snow storm, ice storm, wind storm, blizzard call it by any name you want you will find a model that gives you whatever you wish for.........
GFS above.
EURO below.
Same time and date.
Exact location makes all the difference.
As always it hasn't formed yet.
We are modeling.
This above?
Or that below??
So much snow below!!
So I'll give my thoughts late tomorrow.
Wednesday Morning.
For now... it's too far away.
Check back later!
It's anyone's guess how the Stock Market will close tomorrow and it's anyone's guess what the storm will deliver this weekend! And the weather goes on surprising us this roller coaster month of January 2022
When my brother was young his favorite ride at Disney was Mr. Toad's Wild Ride. I was boringly an adult as a small child, so I hated stuff like that and wanted to walk around looking at things that years later I would take photographs of as I'm a photographer at heart I suppose. The French Quarter at Disney did me in and by the way Disneyland was much more fun than Disney World because you don't have to walk forever everywhere and it's just off the freeway ramp and it was fun to hang out at the Disco in Space World, saw some of the best acts there and had a blast. That said.........This period in finance and weather has been a lot like Mr. Toad's Wild Ride. Country Bear Jamboree ...wow that was fun in both Disney World and Disneyland. But in LA there was a HUGE drop down into Pirates of the Caribbean unlike in Disney World where it wasn't there....... I always wondered what would happen if there was an Earthquake and we were underground at the Blue Bayou in Disneyland. My mind worked in LA when I was obsessed with GEOLOGY more than meteorology :) as without hurricanes I had to track something! I also partied a lot!
Telling you that summer was a blast!
Link to article below.
Then I moved back to Miami now I'm in NC!
We had weather so warm it was hovering near 80 degrees (felt like 90) then we got cold weather and snow but it didn't stick "because ground temperatures...." then it was beautifully, blessedly cold again (YAY) then it warmed up the second snow we had melted :( and well it's Raleigh in the Winter! I was told early on it's kind of Bi-Polar and never rely on the forecast or the temperature to stay the same. They don't plow the snow they wait for it to melt. The year of the "POLAR VORTEX" it didn't melt. No school for weeks, no ability to drive out of small streets unplowed without a 4 Wheel Drive and the worst Spring Pollen we ever had.
Colder in parts of Florida than Alaska.
But when Alaska is frigid...it's warm in Florida.
But this is really about Miami where the weather has dipped down and they are getting a real winter, and that means everyone is digging out their closet trying to find whichever winter jacket they had before they moved there. The born and bred locals like me look for their favorite boots, inter jacket they bought on sale on clearance some March that has been waiting, waiting and waiting for a day when it's cold enough to actually wear the boots and jacket.
Growing up I wore my mother's winter coat (it was trendy, cute and really a jacket but looked good barely covering my short skirts... wore boots over tights and a short skirt with a short sleeve shirt (of course) under my mother's jacket. In the morning it was 44 degrees and we were freezing... by mid day it was warmer and at 3 PM we'd walk home and slowly take off the clothes. One January I took off the coat, took off the boots, took off the tights.....walked home barefoot in short sleeves and a short coat dragging my "winter clothes" home and the next day it was warm again. You get the idea.
Yesterday there was this racket outside that sounded like rain, heavy rain and it was really annoying as the sky was Carolina Blue and I couldn't figure it out til I went to the window and saw the water pouring down and realized..........."oh it's warm the snow is melting" and the waterfall of "rain" ended and there was no more snow. A normal Raleigh winter. That said I'm going out soon while it's relatively warm.
Gotta love Only in Dade....
...keeps me connected to Miami.
So does my daughter who loves it!
She's wearing her NC STATE boots in Miami.
And grabbing awesome sunrise pictures.
Miami in the Winter is beautiful.
Hope the tourists brought some sweaters!
But in Miami everyone is freaking out over the FRIGID WEATHER! And Mother Nature played an especially cruel joke on the tourists from New York who flew down to get some warm weather. There's a "thing" called "Yeshiva Break" it means all the Jewish Day Schools and Yeshivas take a break in January and everyone who can flies to Miami or Orlando for warm weather and to see relatives who also took their annual winter trip to Florida. While it is way warmer than NY.... it's way colder than they expected! Oh and many of the locals run for the highways or airport to get out of town before the tourists fly in as it's impossible to find a restaurant with an opening, no reservations left and well it's their chance to go see snow!
There's a lot of talk about a HUGE WINTER STORM in NY NE ...up and down the I-95 Corridor... they keep putting snow in my forecast and taking it out just as fast as the models keep flip flopping. I will write about the storm late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the models really just need to settle down and there are too many intangibles with the Southern Jet, the Northern Flow... where the storm sets up and where it goes. It's January, if you are freaking that winter might interfere with your travel weather you obviously don't pay attention to the weather in January often.
Check back tomorrow... will talk on weather.
But I'm in a mood today, a good mood and it's fun to just write a bit.
The blog above explains this but ...seriously why would you go to Disney during the day with all the babies crying, screaming ... people pushing strollers (us too but we'd take the kids but.....going back at night with a babysitter at home watching the sleeping babies ...that was incredible. Actually saw them sing this in person there... close to Midnight, I partied a lot in LA ;) Good memories! Sorry not checking for typos, my eyes are tired and I have places to go and things to do today... but it's been fun writing a bit so if you are reading, thanks for getting all the way down to here... we must be family!
Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific! Ice Storm Concerns for NC SC Coast.......Eastern NC. Snow in Raleigh? Texas Getting Sleet! "Feels Like 7 Degrees AFTER the Storm Passes Here... Prepare for the Worst, Hope for the Best...
Officially on the NRL site! Invest 90E
So much to talk about today. Winter Weather. Winter Storms. Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific! Yes I said that and it's that area I have been watching in the Pacific that has just been persistent beyond description!
This is why I've been enjoying this wide view of the cold front that goes from one end of the USA to another, giving Texas Winter Weather... bringing chilly temperatures down into North Florida and the Carolinas as well as the Tidewater parts of Virginia and North Carolina are waiting for snow while Myrtle Beach and places closer to the coast wonder if this is the year they get another Ice Storm! Oh and Agatha could form as a "shortie" system if it is able to attain that status before giving it up to the colder waters of the Pacific! Mother Nature currently taking aim on Eastern North Carolina with a possible Ice Storm!
Such weather drama! Far left you can see Invest 90E ...our front and up close and personal ... you can see what's happening in Texas and the Carolinas!
Snow. Freezing Rain. Rain down in the GOM...
Current radars as per 3 PM
Wes highlights the TEMPERATURE ISSUE
7 Degrees Windchill
You really ready for "feels like 7 degrees" ??
Good graphic here where the Ice Storm concern is!
Everyone wants to know "when does the snow start?" and "are we really getting snow?" and "how much snow are we getting?" and "tell me if it's gonna be all sleet??" and the ever popular "be honest, this storm is a bust right?" and the beat goes on... I didn't mean that like "sleet has a beat" but it does. Down by the coast they would prefer sleet to Freezing Rain. I was in Myrtle Beach after an Ice Storm... a lot of the Palm Trees crashed into themselves looking so sad, they looked their crown and were buckling in looking so sad. Yes, I love Myrtle Beach and no I don't play golf! Love the coast here so hope they don't get too hard a hit!
I'll update later tonight or tomorrow morning.
Please read the previous blog I wrote on how I feel about the constantly changing and rearranging of maps and forecasts based on ever changing models and how that totally confuses the general public. Our job, in my mind, is not to make everything so complicated and confusing that people just give up and decide they won't prepate because model A said model B was wrong and they heard something about Raleigh not getting the snow or Conway not getting Ice so they aren't going to worry on it and "they always mess up the forecast anyway" and no I don't want to add to that misery.
So let's keep this kind of simple.
You know K.I.S.S. method ;)
Doing this like a road trip.
If you are in this image above........
...you may get winter weather!
And freezing temperatures after the storm!
If power goes out...that will be horrible!
If you are inside the blue box ...
..just an example...
You may get SNOW, SLEET or FREEZING RAIN.
Freezing temperatures this weekend!
And possibly problematic road conditions.
Note the highways here.
Travel on I-95 may be severely impacted.
If you are traveling, keep food, water and blankets in the car!
Don't say I didn't warn ya...
As for me I am no longer fretting if I get snow, sleet or freezing rain though expecting rain and some snow, maybe sleet. I'm just watching the rain fall, watching the temperatures drop in real time and listening to the Governor do one of his 3 PM Weather Updates (he hates General Hospital obviously) and I know I will know in real time for sure what we really get. It's Winter, I love Winter and I'm enjoying it. And, later in the month the models have been showing a really big system that impacts weather from Florida (note severe weather approaching the West Coast of Florida) and blue SNOW spalshed across North Carolina. As he says.......it's a pattern (for what seems like 3 weeks.) Winter has RETURNED to the Carolinas after taking a 3 year vacation. If not this storm.......maybe the next one! And, the beat goes on...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
