A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Saturday, October 31, 2020
UPDATED: ETA Forms From TD 29 Halloween... On a Blue Moon ....Is it Going W into Central America or Head North At Some Point and GO BOO!
Updated 70% RED AREA in the CARIB Invest 96L - Zeta Moving Forward Speed 39 MPH .. 60 MPH Winds Still.The Morning After Zeta Makes Landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi Zeta is in Carolinas With Wind Warnings Here.
Zeta Not Tropical Anymore.
Red Area in the Carib 70% in the 5 day.
Yes, the season is not over.
You can see the cloud swirl associated with Zeta.
And the tropical wave moving westbound.
Into the area where a new storm will form.
Introducing Invest 96L
We will look at models Friday Morning
Then a long arduous week of watching, waiting.
Debating where exactly it will go.
Both the EURO and the GFS see the system.
Both see a storm "here"
EURO is weaker, takes it more West.
GFS keeps it stronger, further East.
Saturday, 8 days from now.
Wind layers below...
...that's concerning.
Especially for Cuba and Florida.
The EURO takes it West...
...towards Central America and weaker.
Time will tell which is right.
It's more than a week out here....
... but we could have a hurricane a week from now.
And it may move more towards Florida than Louisiana.
I wouldn't bet on it but...
For sure an issue for Jamaica and Cuba to watch.
A bit more iffy for Florida and the Florida Keys.
Too soon to tell.
That's not a black and white picture.
That's full color.
It was very dark and windy.
You can see winter is on it's way.
I like winter so that's okay.
By sunset, the sun was out and it was blue skies.
I have to tell you I had a really wonderful time today out staring at the sky, layers upon layers of gray streamers streaming across the sky as if they were on their way towards a battle somewhere. Like cloudy troops marching into battle. Wild wind, really the strongest "winds" I think I've seen up here since Matthew. ISAIAS was more a wild cloud event and briefly windy, this was several hours of gusts and around Noon we had guts near 50 MPH and I mean long, tugging at you watching people have problems trying to stand upright. A forceful wind, stronger than I expected. Awnings flapping, trees violently dancing and things went flying in the wind. Some trees were down here, though most of the downed trees were way West of Raleigh, oaks fell on trailers and homes and power went out in many places. Will see tomorrow how much color is left on the trees but it's early color for Raleigh so there should be more than further Up North where color is peaking and probably gone with the wind in a lot of places. Sometimes you need to take the time to wander around and be in the weather, feel the wind and stare at the Fall Color both on the trees and flying caught in the tropical breeze.
What can you say about a storm that 24 hours ago was down near Louisiana and is now off the East Coast? Some odd mix of a hurricane gone derecho and one more moving faster than even it's winds were blowing. I understand having one such storm in a season but two this far apart? And, what will the next storm be like? As for me if the front barrels through tonight as expected I'll be thrilled as it was hot, swampy and tropical today and not in a good tropical way.
Several people died in this storm, the number goes up and down and once I saw five people died then they lowered it and then put it back up again. Tomorrow the number should be reliable and the power crews are working hard to get power back up, it's not an easy job.
So stay tuned to see where ETA forms and know that it's also possible something forms at the tail end of a front off the East Coast later this week, it's that time of year where trouble can pop up everywhere. I needed to rest today when I got home as I was seriously wind blown and I love the wind but allergy season and windy days don't agree with me but wow it was so worth going out. The first freeze and frost help me a lot and they may be a week away at this point.
From earlier today, please read if you have not done so and thanks for reading my blog, my online weather diary.
Song for tonight would definitely be a classic...
* * *
Moving at 39 MPH forward speed.
It's basically moving as fast as...
..tropical storm force wind.
Think about it!
More important than the Cone.
The map from the NWS
That's a huge area now feeling impacts from Zeta.
Impacts being trees down, power outages.
Think Global but Act Local.
See how windy it really gets.
Probably going to rip our fall colors away.
My absolute favorite pic from Zeta.
Mike, only Mike would do this.
You wondered what Mike would add to the show.
Being Mike.
It's important in life to "be you"
No one else is YOU.
As for Reed he looks like he had fun.
Recorded and collected data.
Reed helped me with something once.
He's a good guy.
As for Zeta. What can I say.
It was making landfall at sunset.
...now it's in the Carolinas at sunrsise.
How cray cray is that?
Barely 18 hours later after that picture.
And Josh got to chase from his front porch.
Amazing end to his Summer in Mississippi.
Epic Hollywood ending.
BUT....hate to tell you but
Hurricane Season 2020 NOT over.
My thoughts below.
Any typos sorry...
...going out.
Will edit later.
And update later.
Short post this morning, because to be honest I was up late following Zeta and friends chasing and I've been outside a bit following the weather here locally as Zeta is a fast moving crazy storm moving NE at 39 MPH with 60 MPH winds. That's a meteorological math problem that creates a stronger punch than just the storm alone and how wild is it that a tropical storm is moving at almost tropical storm force wind speed. Think about it.
The damage reports are coming in, power is out and at least two possibly three deaths have been confirmed so far and others are missing. Hopefully not all who are missing are death just sleeping it off somewhere and without cell phone service. The financial hit from Zeta will be huge. New Orleans survived, of course, but power it out and it raced through faster than the train the City of New Orleans and clean up will take a while. The hard hit beach areas and pool level of hotels and casinos will be muddy and messy and Zeta will be a employment producer as insurance cat adjusters and construction crews crawl into the area from every direction as everyone tries to put life back together again. It is worth noting this could mess up election issues in some areas but we don't need to go down that road right now.
As for me I'm going out and about to see the stronger winds that should come through Raleigh in a bit, before the second punch of cold wind comes through tonight. Again we had a Isaias sort of storm earlier in the season and this is a similar set up as the front ran away with the storm.
The next storm could form in the Caribbean or possibly off the SE coast as the next strong front goes flat leaving behind an area that could develop into something. Time will tell.
I'll update later this afternoon, I want to be out and about right now and see what Raleigh sees.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
