Tropics are quiet...and so am I ... Post Game Analysis on Ida First...

On a bit of a writing vacation this week and unless something big happens I most likely won't update this week.

Ida may have changed the way we view tropical entities and the threat they have way up north when that energy remains in the system one way or the other.

For a long time I have wished that they were not so analytical and picayune with the way a hurricane is viewed. It is not just a center of circulation (we say COC by the way...) and it is not just about a track where the COC will make exact landfall.

Exactness is good when preparing a major population area for a landfalling Category 3storm but with a weak Category 1 or a large tropical storm the energy is diffused over a greater area and affects communities far from the little spot in the middle of the cone where the line is drawn.

And, intensity still remains for the holy grail of tropical cyclone forecasting.

Hurricanes like people have many ages... embryo, childhood, young adult, mature adult, nasty adult, old age... maybe not as many ages as man but many still the same.

And, each age or stage needs to be handled differently.

Old age their energy gets diffused, sent out across a wider geographic area. One part gets rain, one wind, one flooding... sort of like a bunch of children who are now grown up and haved moved out on their own to wreak havoc somewhere else.

Ida's energy first infused into her system down in the hot, humid, tropics carried with her deep into her later stages... Just like 40 is the new 30 and 50 is the new 35... Ida on day five and six was a whole lot stronger than she was in her 30s. She hooked up with that coastal low and went dancing off the outer banks. Caused more damage than most hurricanes or noreasters have done and houses fell into the sea, Norfolk was flooded and I mean DOWNTOWN Norfolk and people died in storm related deaths from the Carolinas up to the Northeast.

Mind you I respect that we have gotten so much better at predicting the point of landfall but we have to get better and more realistic about how we cover them and how we treat them and not so quick to write them off as remnant lows and pass them on to local media outlets to warn people and hope and pray people are going to the National Weather Service for discussion I believe that the National Hurricane Center should be writing.

Once upon a time they were treated as a named storm and covered by newsman as larger than life weather events that people remember their whole lives. Now they are simply remnant lows and batted away as not really Ida.

Well ..."Not Really Ida" did a whole lot of damage. She sat and spinned and tore up trees, brought down large oaks, flooded out people's lives and washed tons of sand and some coastal structures that may not mean a lot to you but meant the world to the people who owned them.

We try so hard these days to dehumanize storms. Years ago we treated them differently with more reverence and respect. I think that was better than now where they have been degraded to an interactive video game complete with model projections and visual graphics to rival Apple's newest ipod product. But, we have lost sight of the drama and the reality that it is a system and it stays a system until the last drop of rain has fallen far away in Newfoundland or England. Take a look back over history and those that tasted blood down in the Caribbean often tasted blood again when they made landfall a second time. Those storms were often looked at a bit more fearfully by meteorologists who knew they were just clouds caught in the winds of the atmosphere and yes it's all math and science but in the end a reporter somewhere at the end of the line is writing a newstory about someone's mother who died in a car that was washed off a roadbed and describing the dollar amount of damage and how some poor city will try and clean up and put itself back together. The family of the mother who died will not put itself back together ever, not really.

The Cuban mets who were better at forecasting historically than anyone else were often made fun of for romanticizing hurricanes. They were right, they saw the larger picture beyond the math and science and they are tempests that torment us every year.

And, intensity forecasting IS the Holy Grail of tropical prediction and the satellite is still failing and still needs to be replaced. And, we need to think differently on how we warn people about these storms.. inland flooding, tornadoes and hybrids that are still tropical in some ways and not in other ways.

But like the butterfly wings chaos theory... the rain and energy wrapped up in Ida made it to Maine and there is a reason their energy is compared with that of nuclear weapons. They cause pain and misery long after they have been detonated or declared a remnant low.

So.. maybe I was not sooooo quiet today but I have been this week. I'm working on a few projects, a political campaign and a novel and it is November which is write a novel month as us writers like to call it... so it would make sense I should try and finish my novel that I have been playing with rather than working on. Never end a sentence with a preposition by the way but this is a blog... not my novel.

http://www.nanowrimo.org/

Write one or read up on writing one... it's a great program.

As for the tropics... just remember it's not over until November 30th and it wasn't over just because October was slow...

I don't think we will have another storm but then... I didn't think we would have Ida.

Yes, all we are is dust in the wind.... and all a hurricane is ....is a lot of raindrops caught up in the wind spinning around with the energy of atom bombs spinning across the surface of the planet sometimes out to sea...and sometimes straight at me...or you... treat them with respect and reverence and yes...a little bit of romance.

Besos Bobbi

So much to say and not sure where to start and frankly more in watching and listening mode.

The wind outside is howling in an off and on manner. Gusty is what they call it.

It's not tropical but it is. This isn't just a really strong, early nor'easter.

Close to 200,000 without power. Pounding waves pummeling the coast line from Cape Hatteras through the tidewater in Virginia. Virginia Beach, Ocean City, Norfolk ...lots of folks in lots of cities up and down the eastern coast getting strong, sustained winds and winds citing to near tropical storm force and in some cases hurricane force.

Yet it's just bad weather right?

Wrong.

This is Ida, stronger and more severe than she was in Mobile. But she was quickly written off as a remnant low. The NHC had her officially looping down to the ear after landfall. The models disagreed. The GFS was near perfect but discarded as a long term solution. The GFD was right. She went noerheast not southeast. And those who read this scenario were right

And this may sound mean but the NHC passed her off to the NWS and stopped talking about her happy to be rid of her.

You can change the flu to whatever letters and numbers that you want to call it but it is still the Swine Flu and this is still Ida.TWC is calling her NorIda.

What is the purpose of a hurricane?

They transfer energy from the tropics to the poles. Ida gets an A plus!

NHC gets a C minus on this one.

The NWS deserves a 2 week vacation when this is done but they will have to wait tip this winter is over.

Just Bill Proemza was right and there needs to be closer communication between hurricane researchers and forecasters so too do we need a better way to handle Canes that have more than one life

This is like Tina going over the falls on One LifeTi Luve and coming back alive when ratings went down Uda is back and she has one he'll of a punch and tropical power in her punch. She is punching away at the coastline with hurricane force wind, high surf and sadly a climbing death toll.

This is not 1960 with families sitting down to watch the nightly news and weather. Mommy is watching the food network getting ideas for Thanksgiving, daffy is watching the History Channel, Billy is playing a video game and Sally is watching MTV. No one is watching the weather.

The NWS is not sexy (sorry) and the NHC is and they should have stuck with Ida a little longer and built up the possibilities more before handing her off to the NWS like they were in a relay race for November 30th...

The Wind is howling, it whistles loudly through the pines and something out there is banging. Rain is falling off and on

Misery is outside in the dark, rainy night.

And the misery that was once called Ida is moving up the eastern seaboard

I like the sound of the wind. I like watching what looks like a LandCane swirling on my local radar.

And lucky for me I watched Grey's Anatomy and saw the Accuweather scroll on the bottom of the screen telling me to take in loose objects. I'm a little worried about Billy and Sally. Hope they know schools closed.

I just think there needs to be a better way to handle storms that make this sort of transition. Better communication between NHC and NWS and a better way to get the word out to the public. Maybe emergency testing??

Who knows.

I'm listening to the rain and wind as this storm goes down as one for the re ore books.

As Paul Kocin said once back when we had real weather specialists on TWC ... When the forecast is busted it's usually the big events not the small ones. So true.

Ida was one for the record books. Or Nor'Ida ...

Whatever it is sounds beautiful to me. Will close my eyes and pretend it's Key West and the AC is on too cold. And counting the days til I am back in Key West.

Night Noreaster Ida.

Ps. My laptop is sick and Iphones are great but a pain to post on...so please excuse typos

Quarter of a million people without power. there needs to be a


"a wind advisory is in effect for our area"

On the radar the green is spinning around and sure looks like it's got one heck of a circulation just hovering off shore.

I'm inland. Wind here is sustained at 20 mph and gusting to 30 mph. It varies a lot from city to city and moment to moment. The weather radio says to expect wind gust up to 40 mph.

Updating Ida 1 word. RAIN

Quick update as my laptop is spending the night with the geek squad and only so much you can do with an itouch...

Ida made landfall twice on both sides of Mobile Bay.

There will be arguements in high circles for a while concerning the one higher report of winds thrown out and noted but not used in deciding on her strength at landfall. Someone at the NHC will do the the post season discussion and will be curious how they handle it.

My brother in Nola said it was very windy today and in the carolinas it's pouring. Wind ne at 13mph gusting to 18. With some fog.

Atlanta got soaked as I was worried they would.

And it is going to keep raining. Flash flood warnings through thursday. Up to 6 inches in some areas.

The is the big legacy of Ida. This and a possible hook up with the area of interest in the Atlantic that might become the J storm and do some fujiwara cha cha with Ida if some models are right. Seriously who is in charge of the weather these days?? Bugs Bunny??

A powerful coastal storm is possible and steering currents are weak and expect lots of wind and rain and some flooding if you are in a part of the southeast.

More tomorrow when we have a better idea of what is going on.

Tonight: Rain
Tomorrow: Rain
Thursday: Rain

Gusts up to 30mph.

Can't have that much rain without flooding

Night Ida... bobbi listening to the rain fall.

Ida creeping onshore. New storm forming???

Officially Ida has not made landfall as her hard to define center remains offshore. Her weather and tropical storm force winds IS onshore.

Have to leave this to the professionals to decide how to write the final chapter on this storm.

Again.... Climo wins as her tropical charcteristics get lost. Is this an official landfall or not. Her center may slide east while her rains move both and east and inland.

Main threat is flooding and possible tornadoes.

new threat..... Possible new storm forming in the Atlantic.

Yellow circle up for J storm. Go figure.

More later as more becomes clearer.

For now.... Enjoy November it may be one for the record books in more ways than one

If you know any good weather historians please send them my way. I'm lost in the winter of 1925/26 working on an article for an academic journal and would LOVE to talk to them.

Besos Bobbi

Ida coming ashore. Long slow rain event expected.

Tropical storm Ida came ashore tonight along the Gulf Coast. I'm not sure what city will get the credit but her weather mass IS ashore.
This might be semantics but after going through the weather mass from Irene ... When the weather hits ... That IS the storm!

Watching coverage on TWC and enjoying it. Talking to my brother Ron who is in Nola. He's walking around Canal Street and freezing. Very cold wind. Not very tropical from his point of view but windy.

I'm worried about flooding in places that don't want rain, like Atlanta.

And she has a long tail that reaches down to Cuba. Someone... Slot of someone are going to get a lot of rain far from Mobile.

Posting from an itouch as I am reading through some material for an article I am working on and not much more to say.

Will be back tomorrow morning when we know more details.

Stay safe and warm and happy.

Sweet tropical dreams Bobbi

IDA Moving NNW @18 mph with 70mph Winds...

What it doesn't say is that she is holding up pretty good and looking pretty tropical up close on sat images and radar imagery. The overall appearance of the storm is wide, big... comma shaped, etc. But, she has a strong signature on radar and is closing in fast on the coastline.

Also, the NHC is beginning to issue more info as to how much rain interior areas should receive and that needs to be watched carefully on a real time basis by the local populations in her path as it is a fluid, constantly changing situation which is why weather is so fascinating.

Going to post some of the last advisory and at the same time going to post some notes from various National Weather Service Sites in her path so as to see a clearer picture of what she most likely will do as it is their job to protect their area and not worry about the point of landfall far away.

First off...

Note the picture below which is a wide open shot of Ida out of Canada. They have a fabulous site, really and this picture shows what Ida will do to up rainfall totals in her path as if you look below her neat little center in the Gulf of Mexico you will see a long, plume of Tropical moisture that will be pulled north throughout Alabama, Georgia, Florida and the Carolinas.



That's rain darlings.. Remember, some places are mighty in need of rain.. others are not.

Note the NWS forecasts listed below.

Start with New Orleans where Ida is currently in some way affecting their weather:

..18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE IDA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. THESE
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z AT KBTR AND KMCB...AND THROUGH
18Z AT KMSY AND KGPT. MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITES CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTS THE
REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. 32

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/

UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWED A LARGE RAIN BAND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI MOUTH TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE WEST AND SOUTH OF IDA. IDA HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED FROM A HURRICANE TO A TROPICAL STORM. DUE TO THE LATEST
TRACK AND INTENSITY...HURRICANE WATCH AND HURRICANE INLAND WIND
WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.


Augusta, Ga:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND NAM REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOISTURE AND TIMING. THE GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE
LIFT...MOISTURE AND IS FASTER. THE GFS INDICATES RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM INDICATES TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE GFS
FORECASTS AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 OF AN INCH. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS BELIEVE THE FASTER TIMING IS BETTER. THE SREF SHOWS HIGH
SPREAD BUT MOST OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF OF
AN INCH TO 1 INCH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE QPF FORECAST BUT PLAN
TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
TROPICAL MOISTURE. FLOODING PROBLEM MAY DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A FLOOD WATCH.

Birmingham, AL:

LOCALLY...GETTING SCATTERED WIND GUST REPORTS UP TO 18 KTS...AND
SHOULD SEE THOSE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHTS
FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF IDA. LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 6PM.

Macon, GA:

* NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE WATCH AREA IS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

* CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAIN WITH FAIRLY RAPID
RISES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA. MINOR FLOODING OF MAJOR RIVERS IS ALSO
LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME MODERATE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Columbia, SC:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND NAM REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOISTURE AND TIMING. THE GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE
LIFT...MOISTURE AND IS FASTER. THE GFS INDICATES RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM INDICATES TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE GFS
FORECASTS AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 OF AN INCH. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS BELIEVE THE FASTER TIMING IS BETTER. THE SREF SHOWS HIGH
SPREAD BUT MOST OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF OF
AN INCH TO 1 INCH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE QPF FORECAST BUT PLAN
TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
TROPICAL MOISTURE. FLOODING PROBLEM MAY DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A FLOOD WATCH.

Jacksonville, FL:

(Seems less worried on Ida I think which leads me to go with the feeling Ida will be a coastal low off of the Carolinas and not hang around Florida...just Bobbi's thoughts)

.UPDATE...
SFC TO 700 MB FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AIRMASS MOIST BELOW 850 MB BUT TOTAL PRECIP
H20 STILL LESS THAN AN INCH...SO WHILE ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING LESS THAN 20%. 12Z RAOB ALSO SHOWS 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OFF THE SURFACE THAT WILL MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 35 MPH TODAY AND LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD. MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALL LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...STILL
SOME MAJOR DIFFS IN TIMING OF ANY PCPN FROM T.S. IDA WITH SOME
SCTD SHOWERS FROM A WEAKENING RAIN BAND OVER INLD SERN GA...WHILE
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CONDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY WITH MILD MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


Jackson, Ms:
UPDATE...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DOWNGRADED IDA TO A TROPICAL
STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO. STRONG WIND SHEAR PRODUCED BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS REALLY TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HURT IDA`S TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.
IDA IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOBILE BAY AROUND 6 AM
TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. AS DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAKE FOR A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RESULTING FROM THE COMBINED SYSTEMS. THIS BACK
EDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN MS WITH AREAS TO THE
WEST OF THE EDGE RECEIVING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL AND AREAS TO THE
EAST POSSIBLE RECEIVING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PREDICT THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THIS "BACK EDGE" OF PRECIP...BUT IT WILL LIKELY
NOT BE EAST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW...WE STILL ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.


Fayetteville, NC:

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
IDA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY MID-WEEK. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Wrightsville Beach, NC:

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF
FAIR WEATHER TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
IDA WILL BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND WELL OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.


Raleigh, NC:

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
IDA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY MID-WEEK. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

As for the NHC Advisory recently sent out... note the information on rainfall totals:

Note the parts I thought most important and relevant are in bold:

TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE GULF COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IDA
APPROACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

RAINS FROM IDA ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.



Back to Bobbi...

IF I could highlight that part about 8 inches I would as I am very worried about areas hard hit by flooding in Georgia especially.

Note... if she does not turn when expected she will hit further west and all the emphasis as been on further east. She does look as if she might be trying to move more to the North.

You can watch this progress on any good radar site... a few listed below:

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=msy
(put in new orleans, la)

www.wunderground.com
www.accuweather.com
www.weather.com (go to their interactive site)
www.hurricanecity.com <--- click on their interactive map

Good story...there is always a financial side to the coverage of weather.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=Weathermatrix

Thinking personally when Ida is gone it's going to be hard to find colored leaves left on the trees in Northern Georgia and parts of the affected areas as the leaves will be gone with the wind and rain... enjoy the color now because Ida is bringing in winter folks...




See you all later when there is more to say...

Enjoy great discussion on www.canetalk.com and www.flhurricane.com

Stay safe and act accordingly, Bobbi

The Problem with IDA now Tropical Storm IDA

Picture from local beach cam this morning on Florida Coast:




The Problem with IDA is....... she is in the midst of shape shifting into a large, messy baroclinic system also known as a Subtropical or Extra-tropical or BIG MESSY MASS OF STRONG WINDS AND RAIN elongated and going to cause more weather over a larger area than a small, tight knit storm would have otherwise had she stayed a neat Hurricane.

Also.. Climo wins and Climo wins always. Learn that.

Climo is the average of weather over the history of time. My definition, no one else's but it works and is worth remembering. It's why it is so rare to see a Hurricane hit the Upper Mid Gulf Coast in November... can happen but those are very rare once a century sort of events .... and our recorded memory of Gulf Coast storms is limited to about 150 years or so... as often captain's logs go down at sea with the boat. Usually a hurricane is downgraded to Tropical Storm Status or Subtropical.

Ida has now been downgraded to a Tropical Storm and she is racing at 17 mph forward speed towards the coastline.

Think of some storm off the coast of Maryland or Delaware suddenly moving to the NNE or NE at 20 plus mph... even more towards New Foundland and blowing tropical windy kisses to Cape Cod.. because that IS what Ida is doing in the Gulf as she is merging with other weather conditions such as a frontal boundary to her north and an area of rain to her west that was in the Western Gulf of Mexico and now instead of a need storm like she was yesterday she has turned into a big weather system... that will affect an area from New Orleans (and places west) all the way east to the entire Florida Panhandle.




She will bring with her rain, wind AND HIGH TIDES and flooding.

Why high tides if she is not a hurricane anymore?

Because...she has pushed a dome of water with her for days out ahead of her and it has nowhere to go but move inland across the small barrier islands of the Florida Peninsular.

How high will this water rise be??

4 to 6 feet along the Mississippi Coast at least...and a good couple feet along Mobile, Pensacola... minor unless it's your beach it's rolling across and washing out your beach roads..

A wet front is back by Woodward Oklahoma (one of my favorite towns) and moving slowly east...

Flash Flood Watches will be posted throughout Alabama and Georgia as she moves throughout the Southeast and ends up over the Carolinas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Local Channel 14 in the Carolinas is covering this as a big rain event for the Carolinas later in the week and explaining how the rain will be tropical in nature and possibly heavy.

Beyond that... IDA will either wallow off the East Coast as the NHC shows...

Or it's a matter of semantics.

IF there is anything left of IDA she will be where the NHC says but if she goes where the NWS shows she will have shape shifted into a large area of rain and in some homeopathic way the rain in Charleston later this week will contain rain from the Yucatan Channel.

Weather is the proverbial butterfly wings theory in action...

Watch the Water Vapor loop...

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

So... the trouble with Ida is that there will be some areas that get strong weather and they will start complaining they were far from the point of projected landfall.

I personally had this conversation with Bill Read (Director at the NHC, who does a GREAT job) a few times last year. Inland flooding and the affects of tropical weather rarely gets talked on as all the attention by the media is paid to landfall shots and sexy shots of people standing on the beach by the waves and PEOPLE look at the CONE and all they see is the point that the storm crosses the land.

It is NOT a horse race or a car race..it's not about the finish line. There is no finish line until it stops raining and the INLAND EFFECTS of a storm like this are huge.... not necessarily as deadly as a big hurricane but the property effects, down trees, power out and car accidents because people are running around doing their thing because they don't live down on the beach...

Yes...the National Weather Service covers inland areas but they don't get the sexy press or coverage that the NHC does and places like The Weather Channel talk about the coastline... and have to say people like Joe Bastardi is worth is weight in gold and that's a lot of a weight lifter because he does focus on the whole event more than other online places.

So.........my answer to the problem is to use this page:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Put in your zip code and use this as much as any other site.



And, if the remnants of Ida appear in the Atlantic off the Carolina coastline and finds a way to create problems further north in the Mid Atlantic or New England... well don't say I didn't warn you because I was too busy trying to decide if the "center" of IDA hits Mobile Bay or Pensacola Bay.

Models:



Hmmmmmnnnn....

Well I am trying to look at the whole picture here... and all possible problems inherent in IDA and not looking at the models anymore though they were worth posting above.

Also..leaving some links on a few stories I collected this morning with reading. While all the attention was on the political fall out over Katrina places like Grand Isle and Waveland have not gotten the money or focus to rebuild and move past Katrina.

As for my brother in New Orleans.. he is having fun, not expecting that much bad weather and sightseeing around conference meetings that are going on and well... happy for him... he needed a good vacation, a tropical one specifically.

Besos for now and I'll update later as events warrant but again.. it's a big messy mass of rain and wind and high surf and it will affect the whole entire area even if the cameras are only focusing on the best beach shot!

Take care and enjoy the weather...as Bastardi says so often.. it's the only weather you got or... move to where you like the weather the most.. DUH...

;)

Besos Bobbi

Great version of Stormy Weather set to music...
stick with it... gets incredible...



Links and stories worth reading:

Interesting articles worth reading..

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/photo_slideshow_for_grand.html
note still thinking on rebuilding levees there...

http://www.dailycomet.com/article/20090419/articles/904199948?Title=Grand-Isle-recovery-stalls-residents-blame-FEMA-rules


Note low lying road to Fort Pickens just reopened after Ivan..
http://www.pnj.com/article/20091108/NEWS01/911080319

NOTE: the road is already seeing overwash ...


Kwirky story of the storm:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/AP/story/1324044.html

in harms way...they will only know if the power goes out I imagine...

nice blog for people who love the National Parks and are seashore fans :)

http://www.nationalparkstraveler.com/2009/11/gulf-islands-national-seashore-battens-down-hurricane-ida4898

weather cams:
http://weather.weatherbug.com/weather-cams/featured-cams.html?zcode=z6286®ion_name=North%20America&country=US&country_name=USA&state_code=MS&state_name=
Mississippi&zip=39501&city_name=Gulfport&stat=GLFPC

Category 2 Hurricane Ida Speeds Towards the Gulf Coast and Landfall.. Hurricane Warnings UP

And, that is the truth.

Can't say what will happen on her way there or if she will go extra-tropical or not but telling you right now she is one beautiful, strong, spunky November Hurricane!!

One possibly for the record books.

She is moving faster than was predicted and is stronger than expected... on a date with destiny in Destin possibly? Not just talking alliteration here but strong possibility she does North Florida... or even Alabama..

I have a brother who lucked out and is in New Orleans right now. I say that because we are a weather family, any time we can enjoy tropical weather we are very happy. Southern Tropical Weather to be exact. And, seriously doubt he will have any problem unless they try and evacuate him as he won't go quietly into the tropical night...

As for Ida... she may zoom into an extra-tropical sort of mess but will she connect with that infamous frontal boundary and add bing bang boom to the front and turn into a Noreaster or some SnowCane as Joe Bastardi says or... will she wander around after exiting Florida and wander and get left behind?



Will the front get her? Look at that picture above... what do you think?

Is she moving too fast for the front?

Not sure... we will soon know.

But for now.. I believe the NHC has a good handle on her or as good a handle as they can get and they are posting warnings as follows:

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

All along I've said I think this storm will most likely hit Pensacola.. just makes sense but as she will probably spread out at landfall.. she will affect a lot of people and this storm will push surf towards the coast and she will create a mess.. in more ways than one.

There is damage in Central America and death... reports are just coming in..

This is a storm that needs to be taken serious and just because it is November and was a slow season does not mean this storm will go quietly into the night.

So... will have more details in the morning.

Right now there are two thoughts..

1... she goes in..curves east and through Florida into the Atlantic
2... she moves inland and zooms through Georgia and the Carolinas..out to sea, mixes with the cold front and creates a mess up the Eastern Seaboard and possibly snow even somewhere... according to Joe Bastardi anyway...

National Hurricane Center goes with their forecast.

Going to bed... going to see where Ida is in the morning...going to watch her spin.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Listening to Jimmy Buffett... thinking on Key West tonight... at the rate she is going...which is fast, possibly faster than the NHC has progged her at ... she is almost west of Key West or will be by morning.. Could be a landfalling November Hurricane on the Gulf Coast, now that is one for the history books.



One can only wonder what December will bring...

Sweet Tropical Dreams and if you are in Ida's path... prepare and take her seriously.

Unless of course you are my brother Ronnie.. Cheers and enjoy the show!

Night...Bobbi

Ida Pushing Cat 2 Status - Headed towards Cancun

Personally I think she is already there but waiting for confirmation.

She has been as predicted a pain to forecast as she was found overnight to be further west and is moving pretty fast and stronger than expected. NHC stayed conservative with holding her at strong Category 1 Status but after talking Cuba and the Yucatan Channel they are suddenly bringing Cancun more into play. Cancun was within the possible area of landfall, however it was more a possible port of call in her path and now it may be on her main itinerary. Either way... Western Cuba will get tons of rain as she is one tight ball with a large swirl of what looks like feathers... bands off to her right.

Wherever Ida goes...she will bring some measure of misery.

Where is she going?

Go question.

There were more possibilities than answers listed in the excellent 5am Discussion put out by the NHC. Link will be posted below. Jim Williams did a great update at www.hurricanecity.com last night but last night the NHC had her further to the east and now she is coming more into line with the GFS which calls for a landfall in the upper Gulf of Mexico as a stronger storm.

Here is the GFS Model, loop it by hitting forward and watch Ida go zooming forward up into the Gulf Coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009110806&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Can she do that? Sort of goes against climo and against the grain and idea she will go extra-tropical and suddenly sling off to the east and or not get picked up by the front. This is all a matter of timing as if she is moving fast enough she can do that..and if she slows down and the steering currents begin to bomb out then she might wander around.

Look at the water vapor image current at 8am this morning.



Players in this scenario are as follows.

1) To the SSW of Ida there is a river of energy that is pushing Ida to the North
2) Immediately north of that in the Western Gulf of Mexico to Ida's NW is a strengthening area of "storminess" that is sort of developing almost in tandem with Ida's intensification.
3) Over Arizona and Colorado you can see frontal boundaries and the jet digging west to east...
4) Out ahead of that and to the east of it you can see upward bending of motion through Oklahoma, look at that energy...wow moves up into Kansas. Impressive.
5) Air is bending down through the Carolinas and feeding into the Atlantic that is moving SE
6) High dry air is pushing down into the Atlantic towards the Bahamas and the circulation around that is showing Ida more to the west and working in tandem with the river of air below it and whatever is developing in the Western Gulf of Mexico that is enhancing I think Ida in both strength and her bend to the west...left.

7) BONUS QUESTION...Will the front really dig DOWN that fast or go more West to East and will it really grab her????

So...where are you going Ida... in this water vapor dance in the Carib?

You are a mighty hurricane...

I woke up this morning to this set of models:



A few hours later they morphed into this set of models:




As some of my kids would say WTF????

Oh Ida....Every step you take is another piece of the puzzle added to fill in the board...Where are you going??



Don't know for sure. Just know right now Cancun is on alert and the west coast of Cuba is in play for rain and up until this morning I would have said the following.

She will move a crooked sort of path up through very warm water... become a Cat 2 and possibly (didn't say probably) flirt with Cat 3 and surprise everyone and move towards a Upper Gulf of Mexico Landfall.. somewhere from Mobile Bay to Pensacola Bay and then as the front zooms down she weakens fast and begins to merge with the front. If the front isn't that strong she bends east along the panhandle of Florida and gets absorbed. IF the front if the front is stronger she moves in north of Tampa..just north and her rain shield covers the entire state of Florida and she exits off the coast of Jax somewhere and her energy gets morphed into the frontal boundary.

But now? Not sure... really. She is a real player, my girl Ida. Very personally happy on that one as all Ida's I have known have a spunk to them and this Ida has consistently proved her spunkiness.

Going to take a walk and think... take some pictures maybe. Going to watch the news and the Fins play New England and a fin win would make me grin ;) And, going to be back here later this afternoon or whenever events warrant updating.

Truth is... everyone to the north of her and I mean that latitude wise not true north on the compass needs to watch her and quite possibly down the road to the south and east of her if those new models are realistic. If not someone better take those models out and give them a good slap in the head, feed in some good data and see what the magic 8 ball shows... Try Again Later maybe...



Some great sites to go to if you want to read more on Ida:

www.caribwx.com
www.hurricanecity.com
www.flhurricane.com
www.wunderground.com
www.accuweather.com
and of course...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#IDA

As for 8 AM the NHC said the following...note this can and will be updated as events play out in real time vs forecasting which is a prediction of the future based on all reasonable data ....sort of a very educated guess by very educated people:

THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE ULTIMATE
FATE OF IDA. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF IDA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE THE GFS LEAVES THE REMNANTS OF IDA BEHIND A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
GIVEN THE LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 4...AND HAS IDA
DISSIPATING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 5. THERE
IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.

Got to think those are heavy words for the NHC ... "high degree of uncertainty" ...

As for me... I woke up with this song stuck in my mind this morning...great song by a great singer who sings with passion and the words just kept swirling around... where are you going... to a ghost dance in the snow... well only if that front is really that strong..

Otherwise... a 7 day Gulf Cruise maybe? Or Ybor City? Or... don't know... maybe Pensacola???

Stay tuned... to a noteworthy, November storm named IDA!!

Great singer Bill Miller, hard to find his music but he is well worth looking into:



Besos Bobbi!!

Ida - A storm to watch...

Ida is a simply a storm that bears watching. She reintensified faster today than expected and has held her own tonight against marginally bad conditions... think term in discussion tonight concerning shear was "NOT PROHIBITIVELY STRONG" which was and is interesting lingo, rarely used here though maybe just this is a funky storm to forecast.

November storms can be a pain to forecast and I think when all is said and done Ida will make a few forecasters want to tear their hair out!

I mean..she could go quietly into the tropical night... go extra-tropical and do the whole funky shaped dance but i think by the time this is over that she will affect a good portion of the Gulf Coast with strong winds and rain in some manner.

As for Florida.. I can't help but believe based on climo that she will not bend to the right at the end and even possibly wobble around a bit, loop... hopefully won't get left behind but be taken by the front.

Will watch tomorrow... so far, pretty impressed.

Watched Gators roll tonight... hoping the Fins Win tomorrow and will be a happy football camper!

Either way... Ida is a storm to watch and don't be surprised if she has a few surprises up her sleeve.

Nite all... sweet tropical dreams...

Bobbi

Watching Ida ...Will She Survive?

While waiting to see if Ida survives her trek across Central America I'm going to the gym and hoping Zumba is more fun than Pilates. And, am busy writing this morning ...

I'll update this afternoon when a better picture of both the damage Ida has done surfaces and the damage she could do down the road is more clear.

As long as a good part of her remains offshore and over warm water my money is on Ida in the short term anyway!!

Bssos for now... Bobbi ;)

HURRICANE IDA

Ida was upgraded to Hurricane Ida this morning when it became definitive that she was indeed a hurricane. Something many of us had been thinking but was confirmed by the NHC as they are for truth, justice and protecting people everywhere not just in Florida or Mississippi. No sir and ma'am, they stay awake all night while we sleep trying to perfect both their short term forecast and their long term one as well. It's a big job, but hey someone has to do it.



I believe Joe Bastardi made it very clear on Jim William's Hurricane City broadcast the other night.. it is NOT an easy job and he is very happy he doesn't have it ... as he enjoys doing what he does and I in turn.. enjoy doing what I do.

I write.
They figure.

I do English.
They do the Math.

We all do the science.. as I did study some meteorology myself in college.

So... Ida is making landfall and has been since last night. That brings up another point that needs to be made, in that ... even though a hurricane has not made landfall as they travel parallel along the coastline or move, very, very slowly towards shore.. they can still do damage. The NHC and the Media makes a big deal on landfall but way before landfall a storm can begin doing the damage and create misery.

Keep watching ... prayers would be good too for all in her path and keep wondering where she will go from here. I really have problems seeing her not pulling to the right as she moves into the Gulf.. look at the flow around the high in the Caribbean.

More later as more becomes worthy of saying.

For now... prayers and good thoughts for the people of Central America as they have a full fledged hurricane to deal with and it's been my experience that most Ida's are spunky as hell so... don't underestimate the damage she can and may do in Honduras and Nicaragua.

And, if you have any plans to go to Cancun this weekend...I'd put them on hold and visit some nice place like Cocoa Beach or Myrtle Beach instead.. a beach is a beach, order a cute drink and listen to some nice music and pretend you are in Cancun because her next stop may be Cancun. Maybe...

A nice resort, by the way to try is Tin Town in Naples! Try it fast..

http://www.tin-city.com/dine.htm

Over and out, got things to do and much to write and I'm lost in thoughts and thinking on Willie Nelson songs. Hey... I have more to do than just think hurricanes. This song is for my brother Ronnie.. who loves both Shania and Willie.

Willie is the best! And, think there will be quite a few people crying in the rain as Ida moves inland. Some people love to watch palm trees sway and the rain fall down but when it is taking down your village in one big mud slide... whoosh... not so much fun and it's nothing to laugh about!

Besos Bobbi

Ida Making Landfall

Brief update to say that Ida is about to make landfall as she moves inland slowly.

She's looking good, strong center and in a bit of an intensification spurt, however the NHC kept her winds at 65 MPH.

Now we wait, hope and pray she doesn't do too much damage and watch what she does.

So much watching... thinking on the floods in Georgia this year, been a year of flooding in a lot of places. Hope she is kind to Honduras and Nicaragua.

Keep watching.. somewhere the wind is howling tonight...

Models have her in the Gulf later in the week. Let's see if the model's verify...

Night...

IDA Strong Tropical Storm - Winds @ 65 MPH

She is moving a bit more to the left of forecast (that means "west" newbies) and she has intensified steadily all day. Quite impressive actually. Green on Funktop, consolidated nicely in the middle of the center of circulation. For a small system she is neatly put together.



She is moving ever so slowly towards the coast and the big question here is whether or not she rains herself out over the high mountains of Central America. And, this could produce flooding rains, loss of life and a lot of damage for a strong Tropical Storm. Much in the same way Mitch sat parked over one area creating mudslides and floods...this could create a smaller version of that disaster. However, she could also skirt the coast ... sort of bounce onto land, bounce off..waddle about on the coastline maintaining a good part of her circulation over water and pumping up continued rain and yet maintaining a nice circulation center at the same time and then.. move more to the north towards the Yucatan. Note.. Cancun is flat... Nicaragua is not.



In anticipation of further intensification the National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for Eastern Coast of Nicaragua and a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of Nicaragua and the coastal islands.

It's easy to look down the line and see New Orleans, Mobile and Tampa in her path but right now we need to focus on where she is at and not where she might end up. It is entirely possible that she might rain herself out. Doubtful, but a possibility none the less.



Again.. please remember that November storms if they get out of the Southwest Carib can be messy. Mitch reformed and ended up headed towards Florida.

This is NOT 1998 nor is it 2008 and it would be hard to believe this slow, quiet season could be capped off with a swan song of epic proportions. I think it might snow in Miami faster than seeing Ida become a Category 4 Hurricane. Each year is different.

Paloma..similar place and time. I remember it well, I had just begun looking at possible wedding dresses... beautiful name. Gordon, my best friend's favorite storm to make fun of as we tracked it two years after Andrew and sat at the beach with a strong breeze and reminisced on Andrew and Mitch..similar area but not much else similar about it.

Paloma:


Mitch:


Gordon:


Ida:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Ida
Note... the story is not finished on Ida..she is a work in progress! Watch her live online, your own personal reality TV Storm!!!

Good loop for reality storm chasing online:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

She is a strong reminder that a strong Tropical Storm or mild Hurricane in that part of the woods can cause havoc and create mudslides with massive loss of life. Hope not, but just saying as it's easy to brush this off as some small November storm down there somewhere.

As for me.. I'm a little attached to our gal Ida as my great, grandma was named Ida and she lived in Key West and Tampa and well she knew a lot about the tropics and a strong breeze coming across the Florida Straits from Cuba. So, forgive me if I would like to see Ida do more than rain herself out on poor Nicaragua and maybe even catch a cold front up towards the Tampa area... ya never know.

Be back later tonight IF she is upgraded to Hurricane Status or if anything changes dramatically.

Otherwise.. I am going offline, going to talk to my friend Malka and watch some TV shows and do what gals do when they are hanging out... shoot the tropical breeze and remember good memories and wonder what sort of memories to make next ;)

Love ya all... besos bobbi!!!

Ps..great deal on a nice little weather center... thinking of getting if for my best storm chasing buddy ;)

http://wireless.1saleaday.com/
looks cute...

Tropical Depression 11 Forms in the SW Caribbean...

It's official! Tropical Depression 11 has formed in the SW Caribbean!!



And, from the looks of the more better hot towers that are blowing up currently it may in deed already be Ida. But... we are ...of course waiting for the planes to go in..




Tropical Storm Warnings though HAVE been issues for the Islands of San Andres and Providencia as well as the ENTIRE Eastern Coat of Nicaragua! Sounds like they will go with an upgrade to Ida as soon as they have some hard data with specifics. Note map in previous post that was posted for just this reason... as I figured it would come in handy...

It's a small storm but viable and developing nice banding and a center that looks like it wants to be more than a minimal Tropical Storm so ... pay attention.

Tropical Depression 11 is currently moving towards the NW near 8mph (i think that's more wishing..seems slower). Sustained winds are 35 mph and gusts are of course higher.



Please keep in mind...as cold as it is in Pennsylvania and Arkansas it is still VERY HOT in the Caribbean and the high in Miami today is in the 80s and water temps around the Yucatan Passage and South of Cuba are very, very warm.. possibly warmer than your average bath tub water so... this storm does have potential to intensify and just because October was sort of dead in the tropics it does not mean it is all over and November might sizzle.

Or... fizzle out.

Repeat after me.. "only time will tell!!"

I'll be back after more information has been ingested and more data has been spit out by the computers and the guys at the NHC decipher it all and make more better forecasts ;)

For now... enjoy the most wonderful, amazing, fantastic Jimmy Buffett singing "Only Time Will Tell" from one of my favorite places ;)



Besos Bobbi ;)
(Did I mention the Dolphins won this week??? Good sign always...)

Tropical Depression Trying to Form in SW Carib - RED CIRCLE

Higher than average chances or as my friend says "more better chances of formin' down in the Carib" and well.. I can live with that.

Recon should go out later today and they will tell us whether we have a Tropical Depression or more, though think wishing for more might be a whole lot like wishing for a Ballgown Barbie for Christmas... as it has been so slow in the Tropics that even this small development is getting a lot of attention. I heard Miami and New Orleans News was all over it and it hasn't even been named a Tropical Depression.

Nestled down in the southwest Carib off the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rico and Panama is a small, little viable circulation center that has sent up flares in the guise of hot towers to get some notice from the National Hurricane Center and they noticed.

Will it sit down there a bit and consolidate or try to or will it lift north and take a shot at the coastline of the United States by finding some weakness somewhere and catch a front north? Could happen. Really too early to know right now. Too soon but time will tell.



Models have been playing with it for a few days and they have only continued to play. Sort of like a cat with a mouse but this is the time of year that weird things can happen and do in the Caribbean and a gentle reminder that if this doesn't rain itself out over land in the Yucatan or in Central America that November tracks are hard to figure and funky as hell. Weather is just so variable this time of year. And, this year has been a variable one indeed.



I do want to say one thing... how it would get there I don't know but the tremendous amount of latent heat over South Florida could be a magnet for such a storm if it was to get anywhere that far north and if the big high that has parked itself over the Carib shifted at all and if a front came down into the South Florida area. I know right now models show it going north and I would normally say that a storm like this would ....if it made it that far north... come in around the NW Coast of Florida .. anywhere from Naples to Pensacola...this far out... BUT... it's November and it's been in the high 80s EVERY DAY in Miami. 88..87..88.. come on those are ridiculously high temps down here and one just has to wonder if that sort of energy could help reel in a real tropical storm? Just a thought... not saying that would happen. All depends on synoptics a few days out.

Keep watching... going to be fun if this does develop as trackers and weather types have been thirsty and restless and right now Ida is looking like a real possibility and a nice Tropical Ice Cream Soda would be just what South Florida needs to both cool down and add some water to the Lake as it's been a long, dry summer.

Stay tuned... tropical developments in the tropics seem to a coming this way!

Besos Bobbi

Ps...small fast ps... Note the high pressure ridge in the Carib may be breaking down a bit...keep an eye on this because water temps are still way high down there and the more that high erodes on it's east side..the more of a chance Ida can find running room if all the other conditions are just right. Like Goldilocks ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

SW CARIB.... something happening... looking good for tropical development...

Okay, away today on business but just wanted to give a real heads up to an area in the SW Caribbean that has an orange circle and a pretty good chance of developing more. I said "more" I did not say A LOT...

But... she is small and she is viable it seems.

Keep watching. Models are staying with her and personally...I would like to see a real storm out of Ida... might not be the best year but personally... just would like to see the name do something vs being found out by the Azores...going the wrong way.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Nice loop... watch and see circulation coming together.

Stay tuned.... will update if I have a reason to...

Besos Bobbi :)

Ps...for now track would hug the coast and move slowly north around the edge of that big bad high that has parked itself over the Caribbean but...eventually she would catch a front north and then a lot would depend on the orientation of the front.

Lot to think on... a lot of links to loop ...later...

Keep watching :)

Gale Storm Wins I suppose... No Ida Yet...

Back down to orange despite it possessing a tight inner circulation and very high winds....which makes it I suppose... Gale Storm.

Man, she was cute back then... spunky, good singer, looked great... fun to listen to..

And... something worth watching in the Gulf Of Mexico that in ANY OTHER YEAR would probably develop and ride a cold Front up into NW Florida...but this is 2009 and a year like few others.

But, worth pointing out.

I'm in Raleigh this morning, woke up a bit on the cold side and suddenly it looks like winter is closing in on Autumn. I really need to get some pictures up here as there is quite a bit of yellow, orange and reds and I mean leaves...not on satellite imagery. Not sure why people go to New England when they can go to North Carolina. There is so much color it is amazing and everyone says, "oh you really need to go to Ashville to see color!!" And, am thinking they must be color blind or something..

Leaves look like sunflowers and the maple trees are on fire and the willow tree drops so many leaves every time the wind blows that I can't figure out how it has any leaves left. It's not Miami and I am missing my turquoise ocean but will be back soon so ... enjoying the weather I got here.

And, with regard to Joe Bastardi of Accuweather fame he went head to head or words to words with Jim Williams on Hurricane City and wow... unreal. If you love weather and if not ...why are you here... go to www.hurricanecity.com and sign up for Jim's many subscription services and sit and spell and listen. It was one of the all time best programs and to listen to two smart, funny men talk about weather, hurricanes and being a weather nut was priceless. Jim Leonard was there as well and well he is a legend as a chaser. A GREAT show and a wonderful few hours of wonderful, weather words bandied about with passion and humor.. what a combination. If Joe ever does go down to Miami and meets with Jim in person, I want to be there... that is something I think I would pay to watch :) Or at least buy the drinks...one round.

Love it... don't love the quiet tropics but gives me a chance to focus on other things right now and that is good sometimes too! And, feel badly that though our part of the world is getting off easy those in the Philippines and on the West Coast are not getting off as easy as this is going to be one wild winter. And, that goes for the Raleigh/Durham area that I do believe will get at least one wild snow storm if not an Ice Storm.

As for Miami... it's HOT, HOT, HOT..the Bermuda High seems to have picked up and parked itself over the State of Florida and it is hot and dry, which means they will go into a heavy drought cycle. And, yet... they are still draining water out of the Lake aren't they? Why? What is the real reason? Something to think on for another day.

Putting on my cute new sweater from Victoria Secrets and going for a walk this morning to take some pictures and get some leaves for my mother... so she can see colored leaves again even though she lives in Miami.

Enjoy..one of my favorite songs by one of my favorite song stylists.. Frank Sinatra. My Grandma Mary would play this song on the piano for me all the time. I loved it. I can still see her hands moving across the keyboard like she was caressing it more than playing an instrument. There was really something about my grandma Mary that cannot be explained or described except to hear her play the piano.. which she did so well and I miss her most of all... when Autumn Leaves begin to Fall...



IF I can find one that is as close to a piano version of how my Grandma Mary played it .. I'll post it but really there was no one like Grandma Mary on the piano..

Good one but way too jazzy, Grandma played is slower and sort of made the keys quiver and sigh..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRhVI7cpcS4&feature=related


Besos Bobbi
Making some cafecito before I get out there walking..

Gale Storm or Ida? Which is it? Music to ponder on...

While the NHC decides if this is officially a Gale Storm Center or a storm worth giving the name Ida to... here's some music to enjoy while looping loops...

Beginning to feel like a game show around here... guessing game or game over?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html



http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

Sweet tropical dreams... Bobbi

NHC Upgrades to Red Circle.. Can Ida Be Forming? And... Fins Beat the Jets for the 2nd Time This Year

Visible Imagery from the Floater centered on top of the System of the hour..



The suspect area in the Atlantic has been upgraded by the National Hurricane Center to RED ALERT which basically means they are close to upgrading this system to the next named storm that would become Ida. She may be a "sub-tropical" storm but as they name them as well ... we are looking at Ida if she continues to intensify and if she can detach her center from her attached frontal boundary.

There is a Greater than 50% chance of this system becoming a named Storm.

Now... if you are reading this on Sunday Night go to www.hurricanecity.com/live and listen to Jim Williams interview Joe Bastardi from www.accuweather.com and discuss weather, hurricanes and global warming. If you can't watch it tonight, than go to www.hurricanecity.com and sign up and become a subscriber to his service and you can watch that interview at your own convenience and many others in the archive. Jim does the best job there is out there on the Internet providing up close and personal coverage of the tropics while is band of followers sit around and shoot the breeze at www.canetalk.com.

Jim Leonard is on now discussing the lack of twisters and hurricanes this year in our part of the world. Just remember, energy is always moving around the planet and if we have a quiet year...someone else is having a wicked, wild year... and not so lucky.

As for Ida... I think if you look at her on close up satellite imagery and watch her spin on a loop she is as much of a system worth naming as a few others who were harder to even find yet received names. She is actually wound out quite tight.

Look at this loop and tell me if you think this is or isn't a closed tropical or sub-tropical system??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

As for the Miami Dolphins... GREAT WIN today... GREAT... and Ginn played his part in the win so have to say.. okay.. maybe we should keep him but only for run backs on kick offs. I mean for a while it seemed like a grudge match between Ginn and Feely, an ex Dolphin who tackled him twice on Feely kick offs. Ginn finally scored on a Feely kick off and ran the ball the length of the field... TWICE... amazing! Fun game to watch, high energy and closer than the score seemed and well... we beat them twice now this season and I'm a lot happier this week than I was a week ago. Which team will show up next week to play New England?

For that matter...which storm will show up later this week?

Tropical Storm Ida or Sub-tropical Storm Ida?

Or No Ida??

Either way, I'll be back to cover what is left of the 2009 Hurricane Season and no matter how the year has gone so far... the one thing that is constant and that is if a storm forms in November, it is usually a wild ride and more complicated than a simply July Hurricane.

Going to listen to Jim and Joe talk hurricanes and weather... great meteorologists both of them in their own way...

Besos Bobbi