2026 Hurricane Season Begins! Talk on El Nino Is Valid But It's NOT a Free Pass to Ignore Hurricane Season. Only Takes 1. Andrew, Camille, Florence & Michael Were El Nino Years. 2023 Gave Us Idalia. Time Will Tell! Stay Prepared!

 

A look at the NHC graphics...

An old front out in Atlantic

2 blobs of convection

Severe Weather issues across the heartland.

Low moving out to sea off the Carolinas*

Moisture laden Gulf with showers festering*

Ps NHC says nothing forming in the 7 day*

Looks like a grin to me.

Not sure if it's a sad grin....

...or a mischevous one..

Either way the Hurricane Season has begun!

* Some models toy with development off the SE Coast in the future being possible, possibly Subtropical if that happens and it's a real IF.

* Gulf has been looking threatening for days, perhaps weeks and yet nothing develops. That is not to say something could try and spin up close in to the coast so as always check back with regular NHC updates!

* NHC nothing for 7 days is never etched in stone, but if anything does look concerning they will put up a small yellow circle and then we watch. Even in 2026 surprises can happen. Speaking of 2026 the predictions are below from the NOAA

There has been much hype on El Nino for all the wrong reasons in my opinion as El Nino brings drought, destruction and death in a good part of the world. Yet as we approach the hurricane season everyone in the Atlantic part of the basin sees it as some sort of "GET OUT OF JAIL, FREE card from Monopoly.  "Nothing to worry on" and the truth is that is absolutely wrong. I am NOT saying we will have a crazy, busy hurricane season with one tropical storm after another cruising into the Caribbean and developing fast into major landfalling hurricanes. I am saying that if you have 8 to 14 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes on the maps and 1 to 3 Major Hurricanes on the map and you live anywhere near the coast or inland from the coast you should be concerned.  I'd say if you were in Colorado you probably do not have to worry. 

Let's say we only have 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 Major Hurricane taking the lower side of the wide range that NOAA puts out. Note they don't like to go out onto a narrow branch as narrow branches tend to snap and the fall to the ground and if you are on one it is not a pleasant experience. But let's say we have 8 named storms and note this does not include X Potential Tropical Cyclones like the XPTC8 that dumped closed to 20 inches of rain on Carolina Beachses a few years ago but never had a name!

Obviously 8 named storms can cause flooding in low lying areas along the coast of Florida and the Carolinas. Let's say South Florida gets too much rain from a stalled out tropical depression or tropical storm or one moves in around Charleston a city prone to flooding. One forms close in to Houston and creates a muddy mess.  A late season named storm hits the Big Bend of Florida with a huge messy structure while catching an early cold front and tornadoes drop like narrow branches with too much fruit hanging on them all across parts of Florida.  None of these scenarios is good IF one of these 8 named storms slams into your home town or your cute bakery business gets flooded with 18 inches of rain. 

Let's say there are only 3 hurricanes and it's one of those years, that due to a strong El Nino, tropical waves cannot get their MOJO going. But one hurricane rides up the East Coast and slides into the Cape Cod area. One hurricane rips through the Bahamas and slides up the coast into the Carolinas as it before it hooks out to sea. One late season hurricanes forms down South of the Yucatan and gets pulled up towards the West tip of Cuba moving North near Key West and then while over hot waters of the Loop Current it slams hits a Panhandle town or curves NW into Louisiana or Mississippi!  Note one  of these 3 hurricanes could be THAT Major Hurriacane. Obviously Alabama always needs to pay attention even though we tend to refuse to mention it. Sorry Alabama.......

As for that 1 Major Hurricane.... 

What if it was a struggling tropical wave tangled up with an Upper Level Low that was dogging it and being blown apart by El Nino shear every time it tried to get it's Mojo going.  This storm takes one of two scenarios. The first scenario is it slides between FLL and Nassau, traces the Florida Coastline just offshore bringing stormy conditions and moderate damage to Florida beach towns. And, then it stalls out over the Gulf Stream suddenly having a burst of Rapid Intensification it explodes while cruising by Pawley's Island it continues North at a slow forward speed and slams into Oak Island in North Carolina. It then crosses OBX. It then parallels the coastline making everyone nervous from NYC to Boston and ends up in Newfoundland.  Such a hurricane could bring multiple impacts across a wide area as Donna and Hazel did back when and even the last Isaias on it's first trip around. 

The rest of the storms are weak, wandering barely there named storms and wobbly weak hurricanes. No one remembers their names. 2023 is an analog for that sort of season as it was an El Ninio and for many the only name they remember is Idalia!  

Was that an dead season?

No I don't think so.

NOAA would be off by a lot as that had 20 named storms. 

Again we could also have a very quiet season such as 1997 with only 7 named storms. 

I'll wager we are somewhere between 1997 and 2023. Only time will tell. 

1997 Hurricane Season.

So far we have been twinning that season...

...yet we are far from Prime Time El Nino!

So stay tuned.

Idalia was a mean hurricane.

In an otherwise quiet year...

..with most named storms far out at sea.

Slow season with low numbers do not always mean a free pass it means you have to hope that one does not find a sweet spot in any given week where shear is weaker and there is a favorable enviroment in line with CLIMO that allows a named storm to be the one that blossoms into a storm that will be remembered for all eternity or at least the next 100 years like the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane that I will talk about much this hurricane season. 

Camille formed here....

... because El Nino shear didn't allow it

to form in the Atlantic or Caribbean.

Andrew formed early....

..strugged it's way across the Atlantic.

Typical of El Ninos

Then close in it turned.

It exploded.

2 deadly landfalls.

No one ever forgets Andrew.

Hurricane Michael....

Didn't form in the MDR

It didn't form in the Central Caribbean

It formed near the Yucatan....

...in an El Nino Year.

Exploded over the Gulf

And it went all the way to Spain.

Almost to Spain.

That same year....

...Florence went from Africa to Carolina.

Taking a Northern Passage to avoid El Nino

Kind of like some wartime route in an old movie.

One oddity with El Nino Years is...

...the bad ones find a way.

Florence took a Northern route

Kind of saying "what El Nino?"

Florence busted a drought in NC

We have a bad drought :(

Droughts during El Nino Years...

...often get busted by a Major Wet Hurricane.

And yes we could have a Dead quiet season...

Dead in the Atlantic

Busy in the EPAc

or messy tropical storms causing flooding.

Anything goes.

Just because there's an El Nino ...

...does not mean the Atlantic Basin is Free Parking

Until we are deep into December.

El Nino reigns in December.

It's in the name...

Shows up around Christmas often..

..that is where the name came from..

No one is declared safe or a winner

Until December.

So stock up on hurricane supplies.

Your specific hurricane supplies.

Know your prioties.

Do you live alone?

Do you have pets?

Do you have children?

Are you elderly on medication?

The list goes on and on and on.

Know your dangers?

Are you in a low lying area?

Are you close to the coast?

Do you live in a tall Condo in Miami?

NHC does their job.

You have to do your job!

Stay aware and prepared.

Pay attention to the NHC.

They are the bottom line!

Lastly I just came up with those scenarios as I was typing though I have thought a lot about areas that need to be watched more carefully for possible development. Just showing typical tracks for hurricanes that do not become strong out in the Main Developement Region aka MDR not in the deep Caribbean. 

I will talk more this week on the areas I do think need to be watched, so stay tuned! And stay prepared!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever.

As for dreams.... 

do you have weather dreams?

or do you have wild dreams?

What do you dream about?

14 Hours Til Hurricane Season Begins! EPAC 80% & 20% for Amanda & Boris. Atlantic Sees Nothing For Next 7 Days. Stay Aware, Stay Prepared!

 

First things first...

EPAC nothing in 2 days.

Flip it to the 7 day page

Yellow 20% Close In...

Red 80% Far Out!

Let's talk about Amanda & Boris

first two names in the EPAC

I'll be honest, lately the EPAC has better names than the Atlantic. I mean this is literally a writing prompt for me. Amanda and Boris met early one morning over a cortadito and found they had more in common than they originally thought when they were sneaking peaks at each other at the counter waiting for the waitress to notice they were there. Boris looked a bit wanting to hot to trot Amanda, and yet chemistry was in the air and soon they were smiling, flirting, laughing and there was the hope of something more to develop down the tropical road.

As for the Atlantic it's still waiting to see what the East Pacific wants to do as development close to shore in the EPAC can quiet down the fantasy Canes in the Gulf. Also it's waiting to see what the front really has once it gets deep into South Carolina and if it chugs off fast out to sea or lingers around ...hovering over warm waters.

I'll be honest, the season has not yet started and I'm ready to rant. 

1.  The NHC updated their page and now it's more complicated to use ( tho who really uses it I'm wondering) and rather than enabling it to immediately show you the 7 day when you hover over the 2 day you have to go through MORE hoops to get to the graphic forecast for the 7 day. To me this is 2 steps backward. What were they thinking? What were they thinking? In the face paced world of 2026 there are two types of people.

                First person looks at the first picture goes "oh" and moves on to TicToc or Instagram.

                Second person looks briefly, pulls up a new screen and asks their favorite AI:
                            Is anything forming in the EPAC or Atlantic this week?

                                        

That's the response.

It then breaks it down into both basins.

Quick glance.

Got it!

No need to keep clicking on the page.

Because it's 2026

Zoom Earth does a great job.

I'm a huge fan

Okay it doesn't have the cartoon graphic screen.

No I'm not being mean.

Just telling it like it is...

You see everything on one page.

You click on the red...or hover.

Info on the right.

If you want more info.

I do "get" that there is something good about continuity. But as we move forward into the 2020s I think we get jettison the static, cartoon like graphic and make it easier for the average person to use the actual main source of info. If it gets too hard they just ignore it and go back to TicToc or Instagram and that could be good or bad depending on who they pay atten to. But know, it's easy to get all the info against a real screen of satellite imagery of Planet Earth in real time that'll show you all the info on https://zoom.earth/

Note on Zoom Earth you can see the bulk of the dust!

SAL

Saharan Air Layer

Dust in the wind from Africa!

Also goes without saying....

Mike's Weather Page

All on one screen!

2 day and the 7 day!

YAY!

As for models and down the road........

..models still flirting with possible development

EPAC shows development.

(they are open for business as of May 15th)

down the road a bit but logical!

Atlantic is quiet.

The GFS tries to entertain us!!

Tries.......

off of an old draped frontal boundary

BOC in 2 weeks sure...

....very CLIMO but much depends on

What is happening in the  nearby EPAC

Development in EPAC disrupts BOC development.

Usually

Note as per the NHC the job they do balancing the 403,542 models currently out there is amazing and wonderful and they do an awesome job tracking and studying the tropics giving us early warning and that is everything. If you want real graphics go to another site that uses the NHC info but displays it ways that are easier to find, understand and remember when using any AI site it can be wrong but it's fast and gives you just the facts.

Speaking of FACTS if there is one thing I'd like to see from the 2026 Hurricane Season is a clear understanding of INLAND FLOODING in a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. Wind damage is important, obviously, in strong hurricanes. But flooding is the main cause of death in Tropical Storms and Category 1 and 2 Hurricanes. This is especially important in North Carolina where elevation helped create Flash flooding in Chantal where six people died. Also I'll add a mediocre coverage downplaying the strength of the storm locally and otherwise as it was "just a tropical storm" and I'll add it had a wild punch as it was crazy rain here locally. You know if it doesn't bleed it doesn't lead until it bleeds when no one was expecting. This happens with no name systems down by the coast that flood entire beach towns, but it didn't have a name it was just sort of tropical weather. We got to be better! Easily accessible informational and warnings need to be prioritized and people need to prioritize their priorities and not drive into flooded roads at night, stay off the street and plan for the worst and hope for the best.

20 inches of rain.

Washed out roads.

Businesses washed out.

But was only a PTC 8

That's it for me today.

Learn from history.

Knowledge is power.

Woke up to temps in the 50s..

Love it!

For just a few days...

...it'll be awesome.

Stay prepared.

Stay aware!

BobbiStorm

ps not proofing this...

...we are not yet in prime time.

But soon.... soon nuff we will be!

Time til 2026 Hurricane Season begins...

Felt the need for Johnny Cash

Not sure why

But going with it...

EPAC 60% Orange from NHC - Could Amanda Form in the EPAC? As for ARTHUR in the Atlantic Open for Business in 3 Days on June 1st.... Feisty ULL in the BOC & Lots of Rain on the Way!

 

NHC 2 day map.

A dipping, front kind of weak.

I'll take it ...was close to 90 in NC yesterday.
Plume of moisture from EPAC N into Gulf.

Watch the flow below....

Our "busy" IR sat shows lots of color..

all crashing into each other!

Concentrated consistent convection gets the name.

Otherwise it's lots of convective clutter.

Crashing into eachother.

Zooming in you can see...

Strong convection in the EPAC close in
In the BOC we have a curvy dark C there.

It's an upper level low.

Always good to watch....fun but good.

Sometimes they can develop.

And more so..

they enhance development of convection nearby.

They are not BIG players.

But big players behind the scenes.

This shows a bit of red in BOC

And down below a big blob.

2 parts of one puzzle.

Ironically that is NOT the area that is being watched in the EPAC for development, that region is further out in a flattened zone of clusters of convection and small kinks in the wind flow. Note early development further out is consistent with a developing El Nino where water temps are warmer in this region. Also, it's moving to the West not threatening the EPAC's beautiful coastline.

Earthnull shows the wind flow.

Not much there. Changing the parameters...

...you smoke out other layers of the atmosphere.

To the North you have the diving air off East Coast.

Out West you have an Omega Block 
This creates wind shear ....

...and a too busy atmosphere.
Zooming in you see our ULL in the BOC

Just explaning not expecting anything.

Out in the Pacific we have a 60% chance of formation.

Development possible in the next 7 days.

As for the Atlantic... nada...nothing for now.

But NHC did highlight the ULL on X.

Strong winds, stormy weather.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Should you see Post Memorial Day Sales...

Grab some Hurricane Supplies at discounts.

Stash them away....

Remember there's El Nino building to the West, there's SAL moving in from the East. Fronts are still dipping down from the North and then going flat. And, we have a feisty Upper Level Low in the Bay of Campeache a favorable area for development in June. And, there are impulses of stormy weather there currently that could be tickled some by the ULL in this configuration that is enhancing convection. Just stuff to watch. For now just stuff. Down the road in 3 days, maybe more than just "stuff" but an area to watch. For now there's a a lot of wind shear everywhere, but if that changes it may be something to pay attention to in a few days. Enjoy the weekend!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Models Quiet Down. SAL Throws El Nino Off as the Main Story. 4 Days Til Hurricane Season! EPAC Orange 50% in 7 Days!

 

Not just X

Every social media site I'm on is all:

OMG SAL!!!!!

Same way they were:

MAJOR CANE INTO FL yesterday.

As for SAL....

Yes, that does happen in June.

4 days til June!

EURO shows development in EPAC

Slow development but there's an Orange Circle there

So that's something.

Tho it's far to the West

So not as much an impediment for development in ATL

50% in 7 days!

Usually when the EPAC is HOT

The Atlantic is NOT

Because EL Nino seeing development there is logical!

And when I say "there" I mean far out....

...vs close in off the coast!

As for the GFS

It took a spa day today!

Relaxment therapy!

Some calming herbs.

Won't rule out some quasi system...

...tries to form off SE coast

Subtropical ish

But even that's a long shot for now.

As I said yesterday......

...GFS waits til other models jump a bit.

Then it backs off.

Always this time of year.

EURO below.... 

Rain on the other hand....

...is on the menu for the South.

And the blob in the Gulf...

...should provide the rain.

Subtropicals often happen early.

So keep watching.

As for SAL

those are not polka dots they are..

...part of SAL

on the move Westbound

SAL is strongest usually in July

So we have only just begun

That's it!

Will see what mischief pops up tomorrow!

There's definitely moisture.

Water marginal in some places.

But very busy set up....

....that doesn't help development.

But stay tuned... 

...for now tho NOTHING in the ATL!

But SAL....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere ...whatever.

Welcome to 2026. EURO is Rational & GFS Parties in the GULF. SAL Headed Towards FL & Caribbean. Stay On Top of Any Meds You Need as SAL Amps. Mike's Weather Page Rules.... up the Asthma & Allergies.

As you may have noticed Mike of SpaghettiModels.com fame aka Mike's Weather Page is a very visual person. He sure does love graphics and that's good as he provides them all to us in a visual feast of delicious tropical information that is right there in one spot. Use it as an APP or use it on the web however you prefer. And he's all over social media so he's your go to guy for an eye in the sky on tropical development!   

What do we see from the grid up above?

1. Nothing expected to form in the Atlantic Basin for next 7 days as per NHC. (top center grid)

2. There's a blob down by the Yuke moving along caught in the flow.
3. Another Texas Blob has appeared.

4. Lots of various degrees of rain across the SE!

All of this you can see by a simple glance at his page and you decide what you are going to click on as weather is personal, locational and compelling to the individual. Mike is an individual and we like that about him.  Who wants a boring weather person? Part of what makes us weather people is we are passionate on the weather, the sky, the variety of clouds and changes that come along on any given day. So today is my day to remind you Mike has a page and an APP. I say this as people come up to him this day and say "you're the guy who was talking weather on FOX news" "or I saw  you on CNN" and ironically they forget he literally has a weather page. 

 

I'm a map person.

I love the maps he has on his page.

Highlighting things overlooked here.

This feature is a crystal ball.

Today, tomorrow and the day after.

We have a HUGE HIGH out in Atlantic.

It takes a trip into the Gulf!

Not friendly for tropical development.

You don't need me or Mike to tell you that.

Tho if a huge high does develop...

..sometimes to the South of the high...

something can develop.

But that's not happening currently.

You can see our colorful blobs in motion.

The squeeze play from West to East.

Moisture from Carib funneled North.

Lot of color in the EPAC

But a strong flow West to East there too.

El Nino is showing his face some.

Note how "choppy" that flow is....

...not very welcoming for development.

There are candidates tho.

If you let your eyes sort of go "blurry" 

as I like to say

You see this region below...

being "pulled" to the North.

If that pull let go some.....

One area in early June could try and...

..make a run for it.

As for models...

....many show this set up.

EURO here...

Some show a front comes down...

...the front goes flat

A Low, weak low, tries to form.

Most models show something like this

...or nothing.

Flat signal and lots of blobs.

GFS of course sees OMG

GFS down below..

..if you know you know!

These models are up on Tropical Tidbits.

Sometimes I wonder....

they trashed the sometimes useful NAM

...and they kept the GFS????

Mets in Carolinas liked the NAM...

...it sniffed out CAD & other local complexities.

The GFS party model is aging badly.

Of course if this verifies...

..I'll publically apologize.

But I  think I'm safe to say...

...this won't verify.

We may have concentrated rain there tho.

vs all those closed isobars on the GFS

Nice image above.

You can see blobs with potential

But that big, bad dry HIGH is pushing West.

(again map at top shows it gets into the Gulf)

Shuts off the flow of moisture some.

SAL is the guy!

Orange Red is SAL

Saharan Dust Layer.

You will see many beautiful pictures of sunrise and sunset down on tropical beaches in Florida and probably Myrtle Beach and wherever the SAL goes the sunset colors go. Unfortunately I have to remind people who have breathing problems of any kind... keep your inhaler with you as the Saharan Dust can seriously do a job on your asthma. Your allergies may bother you. If you have more severe breathing issues adjust your schedule and stay on top of your medication. 

SAL is the hero of June and July in the tropics sucking the moist life out of tropical waves.

SAL is he big bad boy when it comes to health issues and shutting down the tropics!

SAL is a photographer's best friend.

Again weather is locational and personal. Know your dangers as the NHC says for the hurricane season as well as the Saharan Dust Season!

That's it for today.  Below is the famous graphic we use to show when hurricanes happen. Note it isn't a straight line and often around June 1st there's some little bit of activity somewhere that gets attention. 

June climbs a bit into July.

August it climbs quickly.

But this year....

El Nino will give us more blobs than hurricanes.

But it only takes one or two so...

Stay tuned. 

Pay attention.

Use the quiet time wisely.

Until El Nino clamps down....

...close in development is a possibility.

Well it always is but more so this year.

El Nino forecast to rule later in the season.

Earlier there may be an open door...

...if something close in avoids the SAL

GFS likes the Gulf

AI models off shore the SE.

Check back tomorrow.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbistorm

Old song but a good one.

I always think of it for SAL