Updated 5 PM! TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ...96L Caught the Attn of NHC But NHC .. Yet Anyway.... Short Term Low Threat, Long Term If It Survives Can Be a Problem

 

Start with the details.
Dolly speeding a long at 24 MPH!

Cone remains consistent!

She's been dogged by SAL.

Yes you can  see the hole in the SAL is Dolly.

Once she moves to the WNW or NW

SAL lessens.

Shear exists.

Enjoying looping.

As I said low expectations.
But not automatically counting her out.
Some models show devilish scenarios.
Talk on that tomorrow should that continue.

Dolly. Round. Spinning.

Tropical Storm 40 MPH

Watch the sun set on Dolly...

Spinning along

Models ambitious I'd say. Will see in real time.

11 AM Dolly Born

Why is this a concern?

Islands are in the way....
...islands really need rain.
Dolly could be a blessing in disguise

As I have said many times.

How 96L came together in all that SAL

I don't know, but seen it before 

so I never count out stubborn systems.

There she is down there under a SAL convention.

Low expectations.

NHC end game currently is below.

Good discussion.

Explains it's ups and downs...

...it's problems even tho it's around.

Also reminder it replaced the name Diana.

The name Dolly seems to stay on the list.

So an interesting heart shaped asterisk to Ms Dolly

Time will tell.

I will update later today!

Only a Tropical Storm Dolly....

....would wear her heart a heart 

Keep reading earlier post while

I waited to see NHC hit the button
knowing they would after raising stakes

is what it is and it is Dolly

"the storm's even beautiful in it's own way"

listen to the words

Later will update ;)

8 AM blog post

This is ...Invest 96L

Best Invest in I can't remember when...

...but definitely best of 2026!

This is Dvorak.

Used to measure intensity.

Really slices right down to the core.

Oh and we can see it's core.

That white center in the donut.

Color IR below

Should it stay alive and thrives...
...this is a view of the current models.

Listen the NHC does what they want to do as they are the ones that pull the plug, push the button and decide when an Invest is a Tropical Depression. Why this is not a TD compared to the total crap that upgraded in the North Atlantic I don't know but I can surmise but to be honest I have bigger fish to fry this morning. NHC will do what they want.

 I was not aware they changed the rules and all tropical depressions must be able to attain TS status or be a hurricane. So I'm gonna just sit a bit and do other things and when they do or don't I'll be back to discuss track and why it will or why it won't develop into Dolly. Maybe it could be a TD and maybe struggles, maybe survives this nonsense has taken over the weather world today as it's silly as consistency is important in the way we do things in tropical meteorology. 

Willy nilly elevate a dying system in the North Atlantic, yet ignore one that's spinning but may not live long such as the previous one in the North Atlantic .... whatever. Not my monkey, not my circus.

What I will tell you is that should this Invest persist and continue to develop ways to stay alive it could become a problem closer in where there is less SAL and less shear.  That is my concern, not the inner workings at the NHC today.

Will be back later should this get a higher designation later today.

BobbiStorm

96L 60% Chances to Develop. Rolling Along Low... SAL Not Letting 96L Develop Quick Nor Go Anywhere But Westbound Currently. Close In Threat Down the Tropical Road.... Possibly, Closer In. Islands Pay Attention Tho They Really Want Some Rain!

 

This is Invest 96L in all it's glory.

60% down from 70% yesterday.

NHC site shows the location well.

It also shows what a bottom heavy wave this is.

Invest. A nice core and a wide moisture pocket.

Let's do the Earthnull Test.

Can you see it without zooming in.

There is it.... still a wave.

But it's got a shape.

A broad circulation.

Low down too. 

That is not a bad look....
....it's a very distant Invest.

Has this little area ... like a center.

Keeps on going, impressively.

In reality this is a good looking wave, it's an Invest not just a wave. The problem is models jumped all over it like it was the most exciting thing they had ever seen and everyone went wild with high expectations. There were so many expectations that it's impossible to live up to any unless it's immediately named DOLLY and expected to get across the Atlantic. Even prior to Dolly Parton's very sad death, the name was always in play and well today it's an odd poignant asterisk to this Hurricane Season. No one wants Dolly to be a Major Hurricane destructive and deadly, and yet no one wants to see a wimpy 1 to 2 day nothing storm neither. Odd how this played out this way but Dolly always believed there was a reason and God was in charge so will just say let's go with that and there's a reason the next name up is indeed Dolly. 

I always thought this was a long tracker and I didn't agree with nor liked the early models showing quick development and moving up and away into the wide open Atlantic. Why? Because it's embedded in Saharan Dust and mostly to it's North so how could a wave, especially a big one, pull together quickly and bust through all that Saharan Dust???

There is Invest 96L down there...

...trapped by the Sahran Dust.

I mean it's a WALL .... a Do Not Go sign.

So what is 96L doing?

Siding along low hoping to get...

...to the other side.

Honestly I don't know.
but this scenario has problems.

Current model that everyone loves.

The AI models are awesome I will admit.

I love them but will this verify?

As always a new model runs soon.

My biggest concern and always was is that 96L makes it across the Atlantic spinning along but not quite a storm or maybe gets a name, starts to give it up to the shear closer to the Caribbean and arrives near Virgin Islands or PR or just to the North and it can become a big problem close in that it could not become distantly out in the MDR in an atmosphere ladden with Saharan Dust. This is not so much a problem now because El Nino but because SAL is in total charge of the MDR today. Closer to Islands, shear keeps it in check. Close in where water is warm, shear is lower and well go and bet the village on a strong trough, we are not there yet trust me I know. Later in September (hope and pray) less to worry but early September is expected to be way too hot and close in concerns go up so... pay attention, stay aware!

SAL gets weaker closer in.

Less shear near the Bahamas.

Near Turks and Caicos. 

We will see but remember it can thrive close in...

....but it can't thrive out in the MDR.

And THAT is what worries me.

A thriving TS or Hurricane pulling up into Atlantic.

No problem.

A thriving strengthenig storm close in.

Big Problem.

Hey it could deravel and become an open wave..

...which in theory it is in ways.

Invests have potential.

They have some spin.

A vague spot we track.

They are not Tropical Depressions.

So stay tuned.

Enjoy the day.

Tomorrow is Lunar Eclipse Day!

YAY..a live Lunar Eclipse across the USA

Pray no clouds hide my view..

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Not so long ago.

Imagine having Dolly Parton..

..as your Godmother?

Wow... 

Amazing.

96L 70% Red Hot to Be Dolly. Does That Happen & When? Models Disagree .... Closer In vs OTS --- Hurricane History Katrina

Hurricane History today is Katrina shown above.
Katrina's EYE over my house in Miami!!

Great memories though we had no power again.
We sat outside in the yard in the eye watching 
parrots together in pairs flying about.
There was damage, there was debris....
....but she formed "close in" 
so we had a different Katrina....
than Nola & Mississippi got
Tell that to someone that had a tree..
..crash onto their roof trapping them inside.

They don't take lightly to me saying
Katrina was "kind" to us in Miami
vs Nola but that's true

Tho.......

It's important to remember that Katrina went through Nola with little damages (amazingly as I watched in shock on TV happy to see....) and then there was the levee failure and it became a slow motion disaster before our eyes.  A horrible disaster there, a powerful Major Hurricane not a developing hurricane as it was in Miami but even in Miami it had a powerful punch for a Cat 1 Hurricane. Every hurricane has it's dangers after Cat 1 Irene people were electrocuted when they walked into puddles with their poor pooch that also died as well as the neighbors child that went along to walk the dog. Seriously, every hurricane has it's own danger, remember that be they "weak" or "wild" they all bring inherent dangers. Nuff Hurricane History for today. 

Today's question is:
Is Dolly developing in the deep tropics?
Or MDR or Close in?
Let's talk on 96L

Dreams of Dolly are Red Hot Today it seems.

96L is 70% in 2 days & 7 days!

95L is 40% not much to think on.

Does 96L get the Dolly name soon?

Maybe....

Lots to say and I'm going to do this in parts and then give my own thoughts. When we have so many models it becomes "how to we translate all this data" as it's a dizzying data display that greets us each day. So here's a satellite image that's up on Mike's page.

Let's say 96L developed quickly!

Becomes Dolly 1 2 3 OMG!

or 95L becomes Dolly?

Then 96L is E storm

Zoom Earth above.

95L would scoop up 96L

quick developing & quick moving...

But we would need a strong 96L named storm.

And 95L would need a name & quickly strengthens.

As you can see below that scenario could happen

but not with 95L & 96L the way they are today.

That would become a follow the leader set up.

I don't think that will happen.

Could it? Timing not there...

Why?

There's much SAL to talk about.

Big waves take longer to wrap.

96L is a big wave.

That's one hell of a roadblock before 96L

And 95L is meh Subtropical maybe.

No real signature on 95L

96L has a weak heart beat seen below.

Next 3 names in play.

I say that as there are waves still to come.

Sticking with 96L currently.

Looks a bit like Mickey Mouse to me

A heart trying to beat?

I love weather maps. 

It's how I got "here"

Show me a map....

...I'll follow it anywhere.

Note this map.

Originally it was a front.

A COLD one.... or a cool one.

There's always one diving down...

...and then they fizzle and go flat.

It's in the high 60s this morning ...

...it lowered the dew points.

The balcony was awesome.

The High today is 85 or 88 degrees...

...depending on which models they use locally.

Sorry but 86 degrees is NOT a cool front.

It's a nice welcome with dry air today.
some lower dew points today...
...before tomorrow!

Tomorrow......the front goes stationary.
Then slides back over us going 

then there is another front dipping down

(hope for Autumn is eternal here in NC)

It is too early to rely on a cold front 

I would love to argue this logic.

But every front goes flat and then...

...comes back over us with warm air.

SpaghettiModels grid above.

There's the NOAA product for 96L

Maybe Dolly

Stationary front across the South.

A huge High digs in.

This all comes down to timing.

Now the Google Deep Mind...

...throws a wrench into GFS Dreams.

I think the Google doesn't feel the front.

I may be wrong....of course.

That would be my thoughts on the ...

....not out to sea model of the day.

Other models are coming round to this thought.

That's quite the spray of model tracks.

Logical to think (currently) 

it gets close in and develops or gets stronger.

(where does it develop???) 

Could see in Bahamas....

..a trough comes down and calls its name.

It pulls up towards a landfall...
...but does it make Landfall ?

(in this scenario)

Is a trough in early September that strong?

When the ones in late August went flat?

Doubt it but would love it.

Love Autumn Weather

But that's dreaming my life away today.

Only PSL I'm drinking is a cold one!

Maybe.

I did say I see an Erin Storm this year.

Similar... sliding up along the coast...

weak currents, but eventually

pulls OTS or towards Bermuda.

Maybe.

7 Day Raleigh forecast

And worse case scenario with a trough 

is one gets stuck over the Carolinas

7 Day Rain Graphic shows that.

I don't see
dry air digging in...

...with a trough pushing through.

Til I see that the OTS is on hold personally.

Til I see a real verified center on 96L

and it vertically stacks all scenarios are on hold.
2026 has had a string of waves fizzling.

BUT could it quickly develop?

Push thru all that SAL?

Well that would be a wishcast

not a forecast I think.

Spread out big wave.

There's 96L way out near CV Islands.

Long ways to go before we know

where it goes

how strong it becomes

Time will tell.

My bottom line is do what you got to do and stay prepared even in OMG Super El Nino so that is my 1st thought here. It's barely rolled off of Africa so everyone breathe and know that every model will have another model run hours after the 1st model you saw so none are carved into stone and take them with a whole lot of sea salt! It's always easiest to say 'its going out to sea" when they form this far out in an El Nino Year. And, yet in real time they have problems forming and then when they form they have problems staying together an strengthening until they find a sweet spot closer in ....usually and then they go out to sea or they make landfall somewhere ... maybe in the Bahamas on their way to trying to hit Bermuda.

Currently it's a crapshoot, any model now is just a suggestion. Remember that. And, stay aware and prepared please!

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps sit back relax as you have your plan in place ...right? And we will see which port of call could be the destination should this become Dolly and should she survive the SAL and the shear?

Invest 96L ... Andrew Memories. Hurricane History 1926 Miami Hurricane and Irma Memories....

Invest 96L

New wave 

60%

Remember this could form anywhere in this zone.

It's not a cone.

Looks good, so far...

So where is it going?

To be honest we don't know.... exactly.

But generally in that direction.

Almost always a storm such as this...

...you can say "out to sea"

But its way too early to know.

What we know is .... NHC thanks it has a chance...

..a chance of forming, getting a name.

Maybe even a drop of fame 

If it struggles and stays weak...

...it could get further West

If strong...can pull up mome.

Too soon to tell.........

All we know is it's got a nice look to it.

Currently but it has a long road to go.

You know what also had a long road to go? The wave that became Andrew that struggled in a hostile environment that was so bad the NHC really almost downgrarded it, but held on a little longer and closer in Andrew pulled together. Andrew tossed away the plan to head towards Jax or the Carolinas and or Savannah and changed it's mind and turned West as the August cold front fizzled and the High dug in and propelled a rapidly intensifying Andrew West fast as a Major Category 5 Hurricane racing towards the Miami area. The early discussion was on maybe the Miami Broward County Line and then it  changed to maybe dead on Miami Beach then straight down Flagler Street into the densely populated parts of Little Havana. Many buildings in Little Havana then and still now are not built to more modern codes, some were built in the 1910s and 1920s and are fairly low close to the Miami River. Mentioning the Miami River all the debris from buildings that were battered apart went up the river and as the eye passed the debris went back down the river with a stronger, flow with more debris and caused more damage as it crashed into the bridges piling the damage up on the shoreline. Andrew missed the Miami River totally thankfully, and downtown so there was that. 

Did you know that Miami used to have more hills than it does now? It had a strong coastal ridge that was like one long hill that went from North to South around 2nd Avenue. There was a Funeral Home built up on a high hill with a circular driveway, we'd get stuck there at the light before heading downtown across the nearby bridge  across the river. I was always fasscinated by it, as there was a real "hill" higher than most near where I lived in the nearby Roads Section with a big old funeral home on it... like an old creepy mansion.  Note that developers for Brickell Center and other projects knocked down and pulverized that beautiful ridge where people road out the 1926 Hurricane. Now it's just a parking lot and a fast food restaurant.

My Uncle Oscar told me when I was young when we were talking on hurricanes that he was a small baby during that storm and his family and others took refuge in that Funeral Home on the hill.  The building stayed strong, it was a terriffying night and he was told but the worst part was that during the eye that came at dawn, many left their shelter on that hill and insisted on going into Miami across the nearby bridge to check on their family or shops and even though people begged them to stay as the storm was not over, they left and one died; his body found in that twisted debris that had slammed back against the bridge on the back side of the hurricane.  Understand, most Miami residents had recently moved to Miami during the Real Estate Boom and had no idea that a hurricane had a front side and a back side. Worst case scenario the eye hitting in the morning gave people a false sense of security the the "night of the storm was over and the storm had moved on" and they were wrong. 

Why am I talking about the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane when today was all about Hurricane Andrew? Truth is that Hurricane Andrew was relatively kind.... in comparison. The 1926 Miami Hurricane was HUGE in big high neon letters HUGE and wide and wet and very slow moving. It made landall down near Palmetto people say yet the eye covered most of Coral Gables, Downtown Miami and the debris, the damages and the deaths were historic. There was no NHC to warn, prepare and give heads up time in those days. 

Andrew was small, a very small tight core and fairly dry in comparison and it moved rapidly across the landscape and out to sea quickly on it's way to other cities to terrorize and other states to trash. It took that famous "hit Miami than move on across the Gulf to Louisiana and Mississippil route" while the 1926 lingered, slowly moving it's huge hulking ass and scraping just about every area where people lived in a wide band of death, debris and destruction. 

another close up below

That track today is unimaginable. 

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/miami26/ Good article on the 1926 Hurricane that hit Miami 100 years ago this September. 

This was the Haulover Bridge after 1926 Hurricane.

That's not close to landall just saying.

It became the bridge to nowhere.

Hopefully no one was driving on it.

1926 Miami Hurricane    -    Hurricane Andrew

Katrina formed from a nothing system.
Then suddenly was a Hurricane

The eye went over my house in Miami.

3 Hurricanes that hit Miami ...

...then moved on to same places

Andrew my memories:

We lived on the spine of Miami Beach in a big, old strong huge two story home that had withstood the 1926 Hurricane. It was built out with Dade County Pine that does very well in big hurricanes as many of the Conch homes in Key West that were built in the 1880s when my ancestors lived there on Whitehead Street are still standing. The house we would have gone too deep in Kendall or Palmetto "inland" was almost destroyed and my friend stayed in a walk-in closet with her baby while her husband sat with his wall against the bedroom door hoping it would hold. Luckily the door held but many not far away lost their roofs not just their mind.  Post Andrew was not for the the fain't of heart. During the hurricane you are going on adrenaline, after the storm the adrenaline is gone and so is part of your home and your belongs and your mind and all sense of normal was gone with the hurricane, howling wind.

While I had basic supplies for your basic hurricane hidden away ..... with a Cat 5 on the way weren't gonna last long. Shopping was an adventure I never want to do again. I did have lots of batteries hidden and used them all for a little mini TV that worked on batteries and radios and well you know the drill everything you need to be stuck in house that survived okay but has no power, no water and yet miraculously one of our phone lines remained and everyone in mid Beach who was there (many) used that phone to let people know they were okay.  The Mary Pickford Estate nearby on Pine Tree was trashed and took out power and phone lines when all the huge ficus trees went down and it took longer to get power back than on other streets. People stood outside in the rain days later and took showers to stay clean and many went to the beach to swim and feel the breeze as the heat was unbearable in late August with no AC no fans and no water ...not using punctuation the hurricane would have taken that too! Note Wilma was kind she came with a cold front and the air was more bearable than by Andrew.

I went with my best friend and fellow storm chaser to the beach neaby. My 5 year old "big girl" insisted on coming and as she would not get out of the car and we were in rush she came with us. We passed people walking from the hotels to the Dolphin Park and Ride lots to be evacuated carrying their belongings and pillows ....totally surreal. We went to the beach, parked by 40th street walked out onto the Boardwalk and felt the full power of the wind, watched the wild waves you rarely see in Miami ... my daughter pretended she was a plane and ran in circles as the "breeze" sounded like Jet Engines. We stayed, we talked, we took time to enjoy the wild moments as we did chase storms regularly tho not big hurricanes like Andrew.  We went home, I gave her a better battery radio than she had with enough batteries and went in the house to prepare.  It was the craziest of times. The night before the storm a little while later, my ex-husband and I took a long drive down to South Beach and back taking one last look. We really didn't expect it to be there after the storm in any normal way. Everything was boarded up, very few cars on the road. A lone "bag lady" a thing back then on Miami Beach pushed her cart near a gas station, I prayed for her often during the storm. I'll never forget the way Miami Beach looked the night before, in the dark, the wind blowing a steady announcement that more was on the way later that night. And, we went home, locked up everything and double checked everything one last time and hunkered down. 

We set up matresses upstairs near the nursery in a huge hallway and set up radios and batteries and supplies nearby and hunkered down listening to Bryan Norcross. Occasionally we watched some TV, then turned it off to save batteries and went back to the radio where Bryan talked all night, talking everyone through the night of Andrew. No one was sure where the eye was coming ashore and when the NHC lost the radar dish on their roof it was all guess work. It seemed the storm dipped just enough South that Miami Beach and Miami downtown was spared the worst of it but really you have no idea how bad Miami Beach was hit in some areas. Streets not passable, all traiic lights were blown away, no stop signs, sand on Collins Avenue and huge ficus and bayans down on houses, roads and often most got lucky somehow. My friend on Pine Tree had a roof from a home behind the take flight and land in their pool. Stories that didn't make the news but really happened on Miami Beach.

At the height of Andrew during the strongest, screaming squalls you could hear the surf on Miami Beach and that was wild, memorable. Awesome and not as terrifying as it sounds as I knew my friends in Kendall and Palmetto were losing parts of their home and beyond that in Hometead  as all hell broke loose. 

But nothing was normal for a long, long time and that may seem trivial but it was terrible. Power was out about two weeks, we had use of a friends cottage that had power due to generators for a few days but it was claustrophobic and exhausting and I went home around the corner with my 5 year old lol who obviously went anywhere I went and after spending the day there we saw trucks and heard people cheering outside and saw power companies from far away were turning the power back on our block. That was way easier than my friends had it down South in Palmetto. 

During Irma my kids drove up and stayed with us in Raleigh, well some did. My daughter in law who was about 5  years old during Andrew took her little 1 year old daughter and flew out to her sister in law in NY. She had gone through Andrew in a bathtub in Palmetto with a mattress over her head and her mother's head while her tall, strong father did what it seems every father did they he stood or sat and held the bathroom door tight even though the roof was coming off in bits and pieces. She does not stay in town when a Hurricane comes, she's on a plane out anywhere but there. Her two year old son and my son drove up to Raleigh and we had a good time, they packed up with gas after buying red gas cans at Lowes Hardware to take back for the ride as many gas stations along the way were out of gas. Their home in the Grove was good. It could have been way worse. So my Irma memories are a family reunion in Raleigh far from Irma. We did drive down about a week or two later and I took a lot damage photos and spent time at St. Marys where the dock was destroyed despite Irma going inland to Georgia the WAVES up the shore, up the coast lelt looding in areas in Jax and in nearby beautiul St Marys.

This is Hurricane Memories tonight.....

2004 and 2005 taught me crazy lessons and really it's way better to chase a hurricane with trained storm chasers than to have a hurricane chase you to your house. After a hurricane chase it's really nice to have a home to go back to........

We will know more tomorrow about Invest 96L .... and there are more waves behind it as we move towards September and MJO is supposedly on the way into the Atlantic so don't let your guard down. 1992 was a beastly hot summer with little rain let alone hurricanes until the A storm in late August. No one remembers any other names from 1992 only Andrrew. This year has been pretty beastly hot in Miami everyone's complaining. Not saying anything more......

Close up and personal 96L

Sweet tropical dreams

living in the topics is not all it seems

Probably why so many of my closest friends..

.... moved away.

Many to the Carolinas or Georgia.

This is I believe one of Mike's favorites 

Ps sorry on typos my allergies are making my eyes nuts.

But hey summer and pollen has an expiration date up here.

And soon we will have Autumn and Winter

And maybe Snow.....enjoy the song.