EPAC 60% Orange from NHC - Could Amanda Form in the EPAC? As for ARTHUR in the Atlantic Open for Business in 3 Days on June 1st.... Feisty ULL in the BOC & Lots of Rain on the Way!

 

NHC 2 day map.

A dipping, front kind of weak.

I'll take it ...was close to 90 in NC yesterday.
Plume of moisture from EPAC N into Gulf.

Watch the flow below....

Our "busy" IR sat shows lots of color..

all crashing into each other!

Concentrated consistent convection gets the name.

Otherwise it's lots of convective clutter.

Crashing into eachother.

Zooming in you can see...

Strong convection in the EPAC close in
In the BOC we have a curvy dark C there.

It's an upper level low.

Always good to watch....fun but good.

Sometimes they can develop.

And more so..

they enhance development of convection nearby.

They are not BIG players.

But big players behind the scenes.

This shows a bit of red in BOC

And down below a big blob.

2 parts of one puzzle.

Ironically that is NOT the area that is being watched in the EPAC for development, that region is further out in a flattened zone of clusters of convection and small kinks in the wind flow. Note early development further out is consistent with a developing El Nino where water temps are warmer in this region. Also, it's moving to the West not threatening the EPAC's beautiful coastline.

Earthnull shows the wind flow.

Not much there. Changing the parameters...

...you smoke out other layers of the atmosphere.

To the North you have the diving air off East Coast.

Out West you have an Omega Block 
This creates wind shear ....

...and a too busy atmosphere.
Zooming in you see our ULL in the BOC

Just explaning not expecting anything.

Out in the Pacific we have a 60% chance of formation.

Development possible in the next 7 days.

As for the Atlantic... nada...nothing for now.

But NHC did highlight the ULL on X.

Strong winds, stormy weather.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Should you see Post Memorial Day Sales...

Grab some Hurricane Supplies at discounts.

Stash them away....

Remember there's El Nino building to the West, there's SAL moving in from the East. Fronts are still dipping down from the North and then going flat. And, we have a feisty Upper Level Low in the Bay of Campeache a favorable area for development in June. And, there are impulses of stormy weather there currently that could be tickled some by the ULL in this configuration that is enhancing convection. Just stuff to watch. For now just stuff. Down the road in 3 days, maybe more than just "stuff" but an area to watch. For now there's a a lot of wind shear everywhere, but if that changes it may be something to pay attention to in a few days. Enjoy the weekend!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Models Quiet Down. SAL Throws El Nino Off as the Main Story. 4 Days Til Hurricane Season! EPAC Orange 50% in 7 Days!

 

Not just X

Every social media site I'm on is all:

OMG SAL!!!!!

Same way they were:

MAJOR CANE INTO FL yesterday.

As for SAL....

Yes, that does happen in June.

4 days til June!

EURO shows development in EPAC

Slow development but there's an Orange Circle there

So that's something.

Tho it's far to the West

So not as much an impediment for development in ATL

50% in 7 days!

Usually when the EPAC is HOT

The Atlantic is NOT

Because EL Nino seeing development there is logical!

And when I say "there" I mean far out....

...vs close in off the coast!

As for the GFS

It took a spa day today!

Relaxment therapy!

Some calming herbs.

Won't rule out some quasi system...

...tries to form off SE coast

Subtropical ish

But even that's a long shot for now.

As I said yesterday......

...GFS waits til other models jump a bit.

Then it backs off.

Always this time of year.

EURO below.... 

Rain on the other hand....

...is on the menu for the South.

And the blob in the Gulf...

...should provide the rain.

Subtropicals often happen early.

So keep watching.

As for SAL

those are not polka dots they are..

...part of SAL

on the move Westbound

SAL is strongest usually in July

So we have only just begun

That's it!

Will see what mischief pops up tomorrow!

There's definitely moisture.

Water marginal in some places.

But very busy set up....

....that doesn't help development.

But stay tuned... 

...for now tho NOTHING in the ATL!

But SAL....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere ...whatever.

Welcome to 2026. EURO is Rational & GFS Parties in the GULF. SAL Headed Towards FL & Caribbean. Stay On Top of Any Meds You Need as SAL Amps. Mike's Weather Page Rules.... up the Asthma & Allergies.

As you may have noticed Mike of SpaghettiModels.com fame aka Mike's Weather Page is a very visual person. He sure does love graphics and that's good as he provides them all to us in a visual feast of delicious tropical information that is right there in one spot. Use it as an APP or use it on the web however you prefer. And he's all over social media so he's your go to guy for an eye in the sky on tropical development!   

What do we see from the grid up above?

1. Nothing expected to form in the Atlantic Basin for next 7 days as per NHC. (top center grid)

2. There's a blob down by the Yuke moving along caught in the flow.
3. Another Texas Blob has appeared.

4. Lots of various degrees of rain across the SE!

All of this you can see by a simple glance at his page and you decide what you are going to click on as weather is personal, locational and compelling to the individual. Mike is an individual and we like that about him.  Who wants a boring weather person? Part of what makes us weather people is we are passionate on the weather, the sky, the variety of clouds and changes that come along on any given day. So today is my day to remind you Mike has a page and an APP. I say this as people come up to him this day and say "you're the guy who was talking weather on FOX news" "or I saw  you on CNN" and ironically they forget he literally has a weather page. 

 

I'm a map person.

I love the maps he has on his page.

Highlighting things overlooked here.

This feature is a crystal ball.

Today, tomorrow and the day after.

We have a HUGE HIGH out in Atlantic.

It takes a trip into the Gulf!

Not friendly for tropical development.

You don't need me or Mike to tell you that.

Tho if a huge high does develop...

..sometimes to the South of the high...

something can develop.

But that's not happening currently.

You can see our colorful blobs in motion.

The squeeze play from West to East.

Moisture from Carib funneled North.

Lot of color in the EPAC

But a strong flow West to East there too.

El Nino is showing his face some.

Note how "choppy" that flow is....

...not very welcoming for development.

There are candidates tho.

If you let your eyes sort of go "blurry" 

as I like to say

You see this region below...

being "pulled" to the North.

If that pull let go some.....

One area in early June could try and...

..make a run for it.

As for models...

....many show this set up.

EURO here...

Some show a front comes down...

...the front goes flat

A Low, weak low, tries to form.

Most models show something like this

...or nothing.

Flat signal and lots of blobs.

GFS of course sees OMG

GFS down below..

..if you know you know!

These models are up on Tropical Tidbits.

Sometimes I wonder....

they trashed the sometimes useful NAM

...and they kept the GFS????

Mets in Carolinas liked the NAM...

...it sniffed out CAD & other local complexities.

The GFS party model is aging badly.

Of course if this verifies...

..I'll publically apologize.

But I  think I'm safe to say...

...this won't verify.

We may have concentrated rain there tho.

vs all those closed isobars on the GFS

Nice image above.

You can see blobs with potential

But that big, bad dry HIGH is pushing West.

(again map at top shows it gets into the Gulf)

Shuts off the flow of moisture some.

SAL is the guy!

Orange Red is SAL

Saharan Dust Layer.

You will see many beautiful pictures of sunrise and sunset down on tropical beaches in Florida and probably Myrtle Beach and wherever the SAL goes the sunset colors go. Unfortunately I have to remind people who have breathing problems of any kind... keep your inhaler with you as the Saharan Dust can seriously do a job on your asthma. Your allergies may bother you. If you have more severe breathing issues adjust your schedule and stay on top of your medication. 

SAL is the hero of June and July in the tropics sucking the moist life out of tropical waves.

SAL is he big bad boy when it comes to health issues and shutting down the tropics!

SAL is a photographer's best friend.

Again weather is locational and personal. Know your dangers as the NHC says for the hurricane season as well as the Saharan Dust Season!

That's it for today.  Below is the famous graphic we use to show when hurricanes happen. Note it isn't a straight line and often around June 1st there's some little bit of activity somewhere that gets attention. 

June climbs a bit into July.

August it climbs quickly.

But this year....

El Nino will give us more blobs than hurricanes.

But it only takes one or two so...

Stay tuned. 

Pay attention.

Use the quiet time wisely.

Until El Nino clamps down....

...close in development is a possibility.

Well it always is but more so this year.

El Nino forecast to rule later in the season.

Earlier there may be an open door...

...if something close in avoids the SAL

GFS likes the Gulf

AI models off shore the SE.

Check back tomorrow.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbistorm

Old song but a good one.

I always think of it for SAL

Monday Morning Mish-Mosh on Tuesday Morning Post Memorial Day Look at the Tropics.... Caribbean Tropical Rains on the Menu Today in the South

This week the Special is ...
Caribbean Tropical Rain!

Gotta love Grok... it really nails the concept.

Always messes up the map tho.

But it made me laugh.

Laughter is good.

I'm in a go with the flow mood today.

So is Mother Nature!

Made this late last night to show the flow...
...Mimic shows it below as well!

Many of us love the MIMIC which is a loop that basically shows moisture or in this case rain as seen in the orange cells on the move in the South. Blue means dry, blue purple means very dry! That's the simple explanation. This above is a frozen moment in time on the Mimic Loop. Yellow, orange, red and oh my gosh pinks show varying degrees of heavy moisture aka rain in that order. If you see pink you can officially go "OMG" and if you remember the Mimic image of Melissa that looked like Barbie Melissa you will know what I mean. Actually after hot pink it gets this almost fuschia color you definitely don't want to see.  It's a conveyor belt of tropical humidity, moisture and rains from the tropics and currently it's propelling tropical rains and humidity up into the Deep South. 

But here today it means RAIN maybe on your wedding day or graduation day or "no way I am driving to work in this rain today"  and please remember we have been in a bad drought so we can definitely use the rain. The farms definitely could use the rain as the corn is planted and needs the rain to survive on many small farms especially. 

Think of it as a Moisture Highway or maybe kind of like a Food Truck serving Caribbean Tropical Rains while it's parked there until it decides to go somewhere else. Today it may be parked over Alabama and Northern Florida moving around the South bringing y'all the feel of the Caribbean complete with humidity rain and helping our farm plants to grow. We desperately need the rains up here in the Carolinas. As for Florida ...especially the South Florida area the complaints have already been registered online.

Splish Splash Miami Rains return.... 

..began on time.

Hurricane Season might begin on time too!

But time will tell....

But first let's look at why it's raining ...

...in Raleigh as well as Miami.

In this case blue doesn't mean snow...

...just so you know.

80-90% Humidity Muggy in Raleigh today.

I ain't going out.

Freezer filled with Ice Cream.

Seriously tho....

What you need to know today is that the RAINS have shown up on time and the Miami Monsoons that hit at 3 PM every day have arrived on time in full force. Even in Raleigh where the ground was dry, cracked and depressing the rain is back, the humidity is back and the heat is on!

After the Rainy Season begins in the South we move on into the Hurricane Season in 6 days. The Bermuda High is parked in place and it's funneling heavy tropical moisture into the South. From New Orleans to Alabama to Tallahassee and on up into Georgia and the Carolinas we are in it!

Some models have been having fun spinning up weak, possible areas of interest in the Gulf, in the Florida Straits and some show something trying to develop once it gets into the area off the East Coast of Florida where early season wannabees often try and form into a quasi low pressure area. We are at IFFY still on the "do you believe this will happen scale" but we are all watching.

I like Mr. Weatherman on YouTube.

He gives a fast, in depth look at the tropics.

As well as local weather for those looking to cruise.

He gets to the point (unlike me) and he's good.

Sometimes he stays under 15 minutes!

Whoah! Check him out!

So this area that may form starts near the Yucatan.

Which is a typical breeding ground for June storms.

And as it's May it may or may not form.

But June is coming real soon!

I'm not saying anything will form, but I can't say nothing will form or more somethng may try and form. Much depends on a weak cold front that could lift a "tropical disturbance" some and then leave it off the SE Coast as happens often in late May. This is a whole lotta rain and sometimes pressures will drop and it's good to watch and pay attention as sometimes early season systems... Invests... even Depressions form close in and drop obscene amounts of rain on South Florida or flirt with the Carolinas.

This is the 7 day Rain Forecast.

Purple means build an Ark.

And up in the mountains of the Carolinas...

...rain and terrain cause flooding.

Flash Flooding sometimes.

As Gerald a good meteorologists knows!

Good post by Gerald Mengel!

@GMengel follow him!

There's a flood threat there....

...vs an annoyance during rush hour in Miami.

Follow the flow up from ...

Central America...

into the Gulf
Up into The South

Rains have arrived.

And they ain't going away...

...anytime soon!

You get the idea!

I'll be mentioning ppl to follow this week.

Sites that are good to have on hand.

And info you may need to know.

Curious what TWC was selling today during the Tropical Update time of day and they had a good segment with an insurance agent explaining what "comprehensive coverage for automobiles" is and why your cute new van that was parked outside near the house may not be covered if it is crushed by a heavy brance in a hurricane.  Many do not realize this.. it happens and it's always a surprise to newbies who had no idea that their main form of transportation was going to be a casualty to Category 1 Hurricane that welcomed them their tropical neigborhood. Seriously talk to your insurance agent about this and never assume as you will be out of luck if you are not properly covered.

This can happen to you.

We were safely in the house during a mild Cat 1 Hurricane that is still capable of cracking huge branches off of certain trees in the Miami area. Suddenly we heard a huge CRACK! and we ran outside in the protected area where the wind wasn't really impacting us ... but allowed us to see the 2nd CRACK break a huge branch off across the street and watched in real time as it slammed down onto a neighbor's new red shiny sportscar! And, I mean the branch smashed the front of the car, caved in the top of the car and the back of the car while my son's all went "ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh damn" at the same time. We shut the door fast. Can happen to you so make sure you are properly covered as many people are not and they are out of luck and a car.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

Ps there's a lot you don't know....

...about preparing for Hurricane Season.

Tomorrow more info you may not know...

What's on the menu for dessert??

June a Week away... 7 Days!! Watch Close In Development for June Hot Spots. Can Development Sneak In Before Speedy Gonzales El Nino Turns Into Godzilla El Nino? Could History Be Repeating? Hurricane Alma 1966 ... Pay Attn!

 

Hurricane Season begins in 7 days.

1 Week!

So let's take a look at June that is not coming too soon, but on time in a week from now. We already see the signs in the models, especially the GFS, showing possible development down near the Yucatan that may or may not be able to spin something up. But what the GFS is showing you, as are the other models that jumped on board before the GFS went into a hiding again, is where to watch for signs of possible early season development!

A common area to watch is down near the Yucatan. Sometimes it's in the Bay of Campeache and other times it's down in the Caribbean near Honduras and then it moves up into the Yucatan Passage between the Yucatan and Cuba and from there it all depends on what is going on in the atmosphere on any given day. Sometimes it tries to form, or it doesn't form and decides to park itself over the Florida Straits dropping obscene amounts of rain over Miami. Other times something tries to develop and weakly wobbles around attaining Invest status and the media jumps on it reminding everyone that it's Hurricane Season. And, on rare occaisions such as in 1966 Hurricane Alma formed in June. Rare, but it happens. Usually June storms are Tropical Storms or Tropical Depressions, but in 1966 Alma became the real deal. My friend on X known as @Weather_Earth25 would remind you that 1966 was a Fire Horse in Chinese Astrology as is 2026!

Oh! Look where it formed!!

Nice satellite pic for 1966!

Fast forward to 2026!!

Check out that flow!!

Mike's Weather Page... aka SpaghettiModels.com 

And yes I know ... El Nino is coming!

Building it's profile every week bit by bit.

Speedy Gonzales!!!

on it's way to transforming into 

Godzilla El Nino!!!!!

But know it'll take a while for it to set up road blocks.

Early in the season when close in development is likely.

We need to stay prepared and aware.

From there we will take it one day at a time!!

Publix has y'all covered!

1 week to go before hurricane season.

Check out www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike has lots of info...

...graphics and a primer on El Nino.

Go straight to the source as always!

Sweet Tropical Dreams!

BobbiStorm

Ps

Thanks to Grok for playing along.

I'm more into words and music...

..than AI graphics but it's a holiday so..

..having fun.

Check out this video from Alma.

Could we have a little bit of history repeating?

Memorial Day Sales.... Lots of Snacks, Drinks, Paper Plates ....Buy Extra & Put Them Away for Hurricane Season. Watching Models....

 

Just a note...

...it's that time of year.

GFS and other models sniffing around.

Like a hungry puppy.

Some very long range models such as the GFS were seeing something near the Western tip of Cuba, others were insinuating something in the Gulf close in tries to form. Basically it's rainy season in the tropics so for now everyone is discussing the El Nino that is setting up and watching models that are sniffing around for June 6th and everyone else is doing Memorial Day. Choose wisely....

I'll be offline until Satuday Night as I have a holiday and well I will be offline.  

EPAC looks like it's ready to roll.

We should have something in the next few weeks.

Invest? Yellow Circle or named storm there.

Stay tuned.

And again ...

Memorial Day Sales are great for ..

buying hurricane supplies.

Foam Coolers.

Paper Plates, Cups.

Drinks.

Snacks.

Just saying.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X