A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, September 04, 2026
Have a Good Weekend... Tropics Quiet.... New Wave But.... More Concerned on Close In or Subtropica Storm Down the Tropical Road... in September.
NHC Says Nothng .... Home Grown Pop Ups Surprise... Close IN. Trader Joes Has Pumpkin Everything! It's Autumn! Soon the 100 Degrees Days Will Go Away!! Pray!!
Nothing expected to develop in 7 days.
Looking at the satellite imagery below...
A lot of showers near the Yucatan..
Moisture around Florida....
A front UP where they thrive
Hot as Hades in the Carolinas.
A wave starting it's trek across the Atlantic.
Currently I'm looking close in...
...will think on waves later.
Also Northern latitudes could get a Subtropical.
This map shows RDU 100 degrees.
Actual temperature.
Hoping by mid September it goes away.
Because I'm ready to play in Autumn Leaves..
...and so ready to enjoy cool air.
This is not a map of where to buy PSL
not a Halloween graphic
High Heat Warnings...
2 days in a row 100 Degrees
So.... went to the store...
...and out for Ice Cream!!
Went to Traders Joes to go shopping. Produce, Pumpkin Ice Cream, Vanilla Pumpkin candle. It's an act of faith... like prayer. Summer heat has an expiration date and buy it and it will come! The Vanilla Pumkin hand cream was sold out :( Maybe next time! It was cool, cold and music was playing and I was swaying as I moved around the aisles. Make the heat go away.
As for the tropics they have a way of coming alive late in the season.Even in El Nino Seasons.
Edouard LANDFALL - Johnson Bayou, Louisiana...Moving into Texas Currently. Strong Tropical Storm... Starts Off September
4:30 PM
Edouard made landfall in Louisiana. Johnson Bayou, near Sabine River.
I took some time today to just watch him spin online, watch friends chasing ...watch their feeds. Appreciating the fact that Edouard ramped up enough to be a formidable Tropical Storm. Pressure was lower, winds were higher, gusts were significant. It'll be interesting to see what NHC says after the season is over and they go back and evaluate data and well I'm curious. Didn't limp ashore at 40 MPH. Winds were 60 MPH with gusts recorded higher in the low 70s, so that's nothing to make fun of as some like to do. Sadly. There are waves, not talking about them today. Today is all about TS Edouard making landfall!
A quick look at the tropics. Edouard is top left making landfall. A huge area of convection is lingering, throwing menacing looks yet NHC isn't in a rush to go there again. But it's over warm water and seems stuck there, so you have to wonder what could go wrong? Many storms have formed from such dyamics and many times went out to sea ...eventually. We have high 90s in Raleigh, there is no "cold front" and it's supposed to last through the week. Possibly temperatures near 100 (not feels like) and feels like 100 plus every day. The environment is riper than many would say close in, should something linger. There's an sneaky Upper Level Low South of Cuba and that will enhance rainfall to it's NW so you can see there it's showing color too near the x leftovers from XDolly that decided to take the hard crawl across the North coast of Haiti.
We can talk on that another day. Will follow up tomorrow with what impacts Edouard left behind as it's swirled into Texas finally and lighting up the radar. Thanks for following along and remember September started out with a landfalling Tropical Storm trying to become a hurricane. El Nino is definitely a negative factor, but trouble happens wherever it can so stay prepared and aware! Besos BobbiStorm!!
11 AM at the bottom... keep reading.
Current Dvorak...here and again at the bottom.
Making Landfall in it's way.
compare and contrast IR with earlier
8 AM below keep reading in real time ;) like life :)
That's Edouard spinning.
While color IR is always sexy.
Dvorak above measures intensity.
It's an important site.
NHC mentions it often in discussion.
Note the white blow up....
...close in to the coast.
That's a sign it's trying to do something.
It's hard to really write this morning as I have thoughts I don't want to really say. NHC keeps talking on Intensification coming and holding out chance that it can attain hurricane winds... gust. Look at that Visible Image just taken, it's partially onshore. It's not "Landfall" until the center crosses the finish line so it's not landfalling yet. But it's clear parts of Edouard are over land, and land interaction can take a bite out of a storm that is not strong. Water is hot close in. Storms do odd things close in, think on all those BOC weak nothing storms that ramp up just before they cross the finish line. So wouldn't say it cannot rule that out and the NHC hoisted a Hurricane Watch and that's good as people will take it more seriously.
NHC just posted an update.
50 MPH
Pressure 1000 MB
It's that's close to the coast.
A map of where Edouard is heading.
NHC say 65 MPH "on the coast"
Well that could verify. It could be stronger or weaker. I'm going with 55 MPH as most likely, though who really knows it's a very small storm and they are prone to spin up should they get the chance quickly. Better to be prepared than not. Chasers be chasing. Had this been by the coast in NC I definitely would have gone down to the beach for it. Would so love to go down to the beach for a storm.. .heck I'd go for an Invest this year. Last year I was at OBX as Erin was offshore.... awesome there when there's an storm out at sea kicking up the waves and the wind and the sand.
I'll be back when the next advisory comes out I really, really want to take a long shower. I think better in the shower. I wonder does that happen to most people or just writers?
Stay tuned!
Note they lowered their expectations wind wise...
Currently they say it's 50 MPH
It's really ...in my opinion....making Landfall slowly
(mine, not NHC saying that)
though they did put the new Cone at the shore line.
Also taken anything higher than 35 out of wind probs.
That is very telling.
I'm still going with 55 MPH
But think they brought the recon back so...
...will see land observations.
Radar Imagery
Best it has looked really.
Be back later with some real thoughts.
Regarding September.
I would not count out development.
Close in...
...up in the Atlantic
More thoughts another time.
Shower was awesome.
Got things to do....
watching friends chase as I do things.
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
Yes old movie. Love it tho.
Love the soundtrack.
I was living in LA
Good Times
West Hollywood/Melrose
Watched it in theatre on Hollywood Blvd
In truth this hurricane season has been a lot like...
...looking for development in all the wrong places.
8 PM UPDATE EDOUARD Tropical Storm! NHC Raises Possible Winds in TS Edouard to 60 MPH. Tropical Storm Warnings Posted Texas & Louisiana - Some Thoughts on Dolly's Rements
Surreal couple hours with everyone online asking why it looked like an "eye" was visible at times, and yet it had not been upgraded to Tropical Storm. One loop and image after enough. In truth we did NOT need an "eye" like feature ....there are minimal hurricanes that never get an eye... but hard to believe it was not a Tropical Storm especially as at times on loops an "eye" like feature was forming. So we now have Tropical Storm EDOUARD! Done deal on that one, coming in on the last few hours of August. It'll be curious what the 11 PM advisory shows. Ps note as Josh shows, this is not just an "eye" like feature but an eye wall like feature forming!
5 PM Tropical Depression 5.
TD5 Looking better. Spiral bands. Obvious center Consolidating.
Spreading out it's arms a big.
Nice banding...
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Note they extended warnings in Louisiana
Tho still headed towards Texas.
Let's say the State Line.... ...then inland towards Houston area
I can see it wants to do Dallas...but..
NHC stops the Cone just before there.
Truth is the barometric pressure needs to drop some, and when Recon goes back in they need to see real TS winds before they upgrade it to the E name. Not much to add as it's a wait and see situation. The NHC did say that they are expecting the winds to eventually be stronger and put 60 MPH into the updated advisory. Small storms, once pulled together as it is doing currently can become stronger quickly just prior to Land
all. This is a close in storm ....on MIMIC you can see the consolidation of the precipitation that will move inland.
About as close as it gets. Everyone in the Cone and area where this is moving should pay attention to all updates and expect surprises as what it is tonight is not what it was this morning. NHC taking it pretty seriously by upping winds closer to Hurricane strength and the old rule is you always prepare for a stronger storm then forecast...just to be safe.
I'll update later tonight but for not making hamburgers for dinner with onions & peppers fried with a bit of bourbon in them ;) and sweet potato fries so .... stay tuned. Note the important facts below.
11 AM
PTC 5 Forms
when I heard PTC 5 was upgraded. This was the song playing
Can't make that up... Choosing Texas :)
As Close In as you can get!
Pressure is high, won't lie.
Close in, very problematic.
In Houston area problem is from
FLOODING
remember that....
Harvey was a TS during flooding.
Tropical Storm Warnings Posted.
Interactive Cone below.
Shows timestamps...
And a reminder Louisiana has TS Warnings also.
This is called the Sabine River.
A beautiful area... prone to flooding in a storm.
Cities expected to have TS winds. Cameron, Louisiana has a chance at 50 MPH not a big chance but surprised me.
Super El Nino years are know by the plethora of short term tropical storms, often close in and often small in size as well. Small core, though they can have big impacts as the rain will fall across a wide area that has many bayous where small towns and big ones like Houston were built in. Ryan mentions 9 inches, could be more. NHC waited til this morning, when many who are very wise expected the PTC to go up earlier. NHC makes that call, so it's on the NHC and they do not take the decision lightly. Whatever what was done has been done, hopefully people along the coast were getting good info from local weather people and online. But in that neck of the wood people go out fishing and doing things and are busy in those final days of summer and well I sure hope people are prepared.........should the concerns on flooding verify. Nuff said on that, will update later. Especially as many were paying more attention to Dolly's remnants. Regarding those remnants here are some models. Will go into details in another post should she look like she can make it off the North Coast of Haiti where I believe she is currently.
Models...not as excited.
My thoughts.
Should it get into this area:
Then it has a chance.
note the 86 degree water
Old Bahama Passage....
on North coast of Cuba is hot. There's a spot... where Dolly can get her groove back.
But can she?
Regarding Dolly.... her remnants are out there spread across a wide area near Haiti. She definitely took the harder road. Reminds me of the Scarecrow in Oz where they had to put him back together again. What will be will be. Watching. I have seen crazy things in the region on the North Coast of Cuba between there and the Bahamas and seen many a system that looked dead in the water come back to life and seen many not. Then again her Remnants may have a chance further up the road so we will see soon.
While not looking great.
She is very visible still in some ways.
Convective ways ... for now.
Stay tuned.
Will update should PTC be upgrade to Edouard.
And with later info today that is relevant.
BobbiStorm
10:30 AM
NHC Forecast Edouard to form
Edouard Choosing Texas
will update soon
I do so love Zoom Earth....
97L candidate to be PTC
or Edouard should Recon call it.
(recon is out there as I type)
Listening to Mike....
..have to be somewhere this morning
getting ready.
NHC will prob call it PTC at 11
when I'll be out at appointment
My bottom line this morning is that this should get the PTC tag. PTC means POTENTIAL Tropical Cyclone. We have all known "that kid" with incredible potential that did not live up to our expectations. Though we also remember that kid who early on had so much potential and he exceeded even our expectations. I taught school once upon a time, before being the Children's Room Librarian at the City Library....before getting stuck on the Reference Desk all day as I was the librarian least likely to go postal (they do) and tell a patron off. And, then I moved onto Academia and ran a College Library. I say this as ....I always wonder what happened to that cute little Haitian kid who learned English in less than 6 months here when no one in his family spoke English and got As .... always figured he'd go far in life. But you never know. TWC is in place in Houston, that's a good measure of the potential Invest 97L has for some sort of tropical weather trouble.
As I have an appointment at 10:30 I'm guessing I'll be watching on the phone at my appointment should they upgrade at 11 AM. Either way.............will update this blog later today with whatever info the NHC puts out eventually as the potential for an upgrade today is there. Either way the dangers are there with a name or without a name.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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