A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, July 20, 2026
11 AM Updated! Still TD2 Building a Mystery... Forecast to be Bertha..... FL Panhandle to Mississippi Pay Attn... Long Term Concerns Louisiana & Texas. Expect Surprises.
Nothing much has changed since 8 AM
I spoke on this online and in the blog a few times in that it's common for a large, developing Tropical Depression to sometimes have more than one possible center or the center seems to relocate a bit. The 11 AM Discussion explains that the center was relocated a bit to the South, yet the general game plan remains the same. They are calling it relocated vs movement. There have been some variables in models and that will happen until this TD has a stronger defined center. They also opened the door for a sheared Bertha giving an assymetrical look to her down the road and in truth this is all subject to change depending on the timing of TD 2 on "wrapping up" better and I do think that is currently going on. I'd say that is a long run on sentence, and yet this process is long and rambling at times with moments of sudden pulsations.
Another view of TD2
Looks more consolidated than earlier.
Vs two blobs there is banding...
in multiple directions.
Center more solid, bulked up.
She's over very warm water.
Bathtub Hot so remember that!
I'll update at 5 Pm or when NHC blinks.
Thanks for reading....
...keep reading if you did not earlier
* * * * *
TD 2 spinning close in.
This is a TEXT BOOK example of El Nino systems.
Close in Development.
Clinging to the coastline.
Cradled in the curve of the Gulf
Clining close to the Big Bend of Florida
and yet its got it's eyes on Texas
And in between many coastal cities. Many people.
There's the models.
There's the rain forecast.
Don't try to understand everything.
Follow the advice of the NHC
NWS
Weather Alerts on your phone.
Local Experts.
Sometimes these systems play possum.
Hope this isn't this happening.
Don't get distracted by this image.
Pay attention to the RADAR
I know... it's complicated!
Takes a village of models to properly forecast weather and a group of forecasters to interpret them into an easy to understand forecast & put out graphics such as the Cone. Tropical Depressions turning into Tropical Storm are often filled with surprises that pop up along the way. If there wasn't dry air and negative conditions where it's located between two highs causing "issues" than this would be one for the history books in ways. Close in systems can leave historical impacts even when they look wonky. So never turn your back on them, don't ignore them because they don't look great on some satellite image. Heating of the day comes along and storms explode somewhere far from the current center of the current storm, pay attention but don't ignore the actual center. And, they can begin to lunge for the coast and/or stay in the water carefully avoiding the coast and strengthen.
This is not a long tracking tropical wave that we have a good feel for and a history of how it seems to respond to enviornmental conditions thrown at it..........it's not that sort of storm. Forming from an Upper Level Low means out of the gate this wants to spin and yet they have structual issues while forming with regard to convection especially as there is dry air to the North and it's squished between two Highs.
And, then there is my friend DaBuh who has some second sense when it comes to seeing where things will go and getting straight to the heart of the matter and a while back... even before this post he was pointing to where the current track is and where the storms are currently popping up. So yeah that happened!
Will update throughout the day. But, these are my basic thoughts:
1. Pay Attention to the NHC, NWS, Wxr Alerts on Apps (turned on) & local experts.
2. Expect that somewhere along the way there will be surprises.
3. Stay prepared and aware and never under estimate a close in Gulf system as they can be a bull in a china shop...somewhere, someone is going to have trouble.
4. Keep your eye on the short term forecast and know the long term one may change, so stay aware.
Updated 5 PM TD 2 Still Forecast by NHC to Become TS Bertha ... Recon Went In. TD 2 aka Wannabee Eg Is Sitting & Spinning Owning the Eastern Gulf - Lots of Room to Breathe
Recent Cone.
Similar to last.
Nudged a wee bit to the South.
It's all a guessing game.
Generally she'll pull West.
Currently, as of now..... ..everyone in this close up should pay attn!
Old saying.
6 of 1 ...half a dozen of another.
My husband is cooking dinner as I do not cook Sunday Night :) and I'm watching women's gynastics on mute... so much spinning. I was looking for local weather for fun to see what they said, but no news or weather and left it on. I know what we drove through so I know, just curious on local experts. Spinning must be the name of the day. NASCAR is at North Wilkesbor Speedway and weather has been an issue as we have had crazy thunderstorms all day. Rarely watch gymnastics but the theme of the day is spinning
Watching Miss TD 2 the contestant for the name Tropical Storm Bertha SPIN and when I say spin, her spin takes up the entire Eastern Gulf.
Yes she has a dry air problem.
But the same flow that's driving down the dry air...
..is also feeding her with moisture.
To be a Tropical Storm and thrive....
...she needs moisture.
She is breathing... will give her that. She's definitely spinning.........
Short term forecast is for her to continue and spin, she lost a bit of latitude but that's more (in my opinion) looping or turning on a dime around and around. Check out those storms explode across the backbone of Cuba to the Southeast. In color on IR this is incredible to watch and the way the 2026 Hurricane Season is forecast to go ... enjoy the spinning. Time will tell where exactly she goes and how close to the coastline she gets. Does she slide along just to the South of Hurricane House and wave at Josh (@icyclone) sitting on his porch watching the waves and feeling the breeze or does she give him a whole lot more than a wave? And, if she slides along to the West or North of West she will cause a lot of weather drama on her way to possibly Texas. Texas has been in the flow for rain and as much as I hate to say it, it's logically it would, could draw her closer. And then what? This all comes down to timing. The longer she stays off shore and out in the Gulf.... if the dry air begins to weaken she could become stronger than many expect. If not she'll just be the star of the show this week as we wait to see what she's really got under the hood!
Check out the power on her SW side.
Look at the curvature bands to the ENE.
And to the NNW it's all spinning.
Worth remembering that this is a developing system. This is a work in progress. The center could change and get relocated. I'm not saying it will...I am saying ......it's a work in progress and large, systems such as this sometimes have competing centers. And small systems are easier to fall apart than this spinning gyro that's been spinning since Friday at least. Again the ULL was involved this is NOT a tropical wave.
Be back later. Eggplant Parmigiana on the menu here though some people will be eating hamburgers and others shrimp tonight. Just don't eat the lettuce ...oh the 2020s just keeping 2020ing.
Keep reading if you did not already.
I do not usually listen to this song.
But it's classic for a spinner and ...... we got a spinner!!
I live on instinct so ....
...enjoy.
What highway will Bertha take... ...and where will she go??
NHC has her a TS down the road.
incredible..........
***** 11 AM below*****
Doesn't that pic just scream TD!!
And NHC upgraded before recon ...
And we have a Cone!
Some quick comments here as I will update the blog later today after Recon gets in there and we have direct data. After that more so when that data is put into the next run of models with the data from the recon put into the models. Either way, TD2 forecast by NHC to be TS Bertha will lollygag around in the Gulf close in before finally making her move. I'll add to that never trust the first Cone to know for sure where it will go. As it is close in and it's a large as they say "sprawling" system impacts will be felt far from the exact center of the cone.
Short Term: It should stay in the same location, sort of anchored a bit while it tries to build on it's great bones. It is lacking on moisture currently and while storms flare up it needs to hold onto that moisture some... to become Big Bad Bertha!
Long Term: IF current models verify it gets pushed West by the expanding High Pressure to it's East and models currently favor the Go West Girl paths vs up into FL and Georgia. Again we need better info or as we used to say Down South ... More Better Info.
It's quite noticeable to anyone looking at the Water Vapor Loop that dry air (that dark Navy Blue) to it's NNE sliding into it's center. It's also easy to see how large this system is and it has maintained this large for the last few days. Also it has this "need to spin" and that is inherent in the formulative factors involved here. When you have an ULL that mixes it up with other features it is more likely to spin first than the opposite way while watching a very large, wet African Wave lumber across the Atlantic in search of spin that generally happens down the road. While there are always those Prime Time African Waves that come off with Low Pressure from day one. They are few and far between and more so will be this year.
So let's let her spin. Let's let the NHC do their thing and drop dropsondes into her and then review the data. And for the rest of us we can defitnitely enjoy the aesthetics of how "pretty" she looks. Big yes, but look at her spin! More to say later.
The link to the excellent discussion from the NHC is below.
Also remember that this should move slowly and as it's large and is prone to sudden flare ups of convective energy areas nearby close to the storm over land may fefel it's impact even while it's far offshore.
Invest 91L Formed ... 50/50 Chances of Development as of Saturday Night
Just keeping it short here. Invest 91L formed as I believed it would, but beyond that there are many questions. Currently Recon is scheduled to go in tomorrow and we should have more answers after we get direct data. This is a huge bubble of trouble, potential trouble and energy that likes to spin. That said, there's lots of dry air and shear everywhere and yet close in development has happened in set ups such as this one before so we have to watch. I'm watching.
Area Close In to Florida Looks Like It Wants to be an Invest. African Wave Still in the Water Swimming Lower Chances. Somewhere We May Get an Invest. Stay Tuned! Stay Cool!
This is the 2 day forecast.
Small li'l chance.
But in the 7 day....
...we are at 30%
The wave by Africa is down to 10%
would not totally count it out yet.
Let's go close in.....
Kind of impressive flare up...
....for the last several hours.
Clearly partially over FL
being fed clearly by moisture.
Long circlular feature feeding into it.
If Mimic was only working....
...would be easier to see
Earthnull shows nothing much.
But change parameters to 500
As there are many layers in the atmosphere.
It's always worth a look.
We do not go by 500 ...but it's a look down thru layers.
IR up close and personal.
Something gonna on....
...but must sustain this for a while. Before NHC makes an Invest.
But we may have an Invest over the weekend.
IF ...this continues.
I'm curious.
I'll update Saturday Night or Sunday Morning, depending if the NHC elevates it to Invest. I could show models but they are sprayed all over the place and they change on every run. It could cross Florida. Currently discussion it moves to the left and into the Gulf. Then models that show it makes a circle in the East Gulf and takes off or just fades away.
The next name up is Bertha. Somewhere, eventually Bertha will show up. As for me I'd be good with an Invest or TD or some nice rain in Raleigh to chase away the heat and lack of air movement!
Yellow Circles Still There. Horrific Flooding in Texas. GOES 19 Is Out of Order! Not Working. Needs Fixing. And Canadian Smoke an Unwanted Visitor to the USA
Basic Tropical Info.
Yellow cirles still there.
20% Close in to Florida
Small chance of development.
Either way a rainmaker at some point.
Keep watching.
Distant African Wave lower chances.
Currently can develop just a bit...
...but gets "less conducive" down the road.
Speaking of the tropical road...
...we have a road block.
They are working on the GOES-19 They are asking us to be patient.
Most storm chasers tend not to be patient.
But it is what it is.... so yeah.
Let's begin at the beginning.
Goes 19 had a problem.
Simplistically speaking.... it's been put in a safe mode... ...while they try and fix it.
Gary Stephenson explains it well.
He's one of my fav go to mets in the Raleigh area.
Updated! New Yellow Circle by African Wave 10% & Yellow Circle Across Florida .... 20% Watching the Tropics Again. Colorful, Moist Wave Off Africa Can It Sprinkle Some Rain on the Islands??
10% Our moist, large African Wave mentioned below.
As for the 20% area by Florida.
Not to see yet but models.
Area down by the Yucatan...
...being overly stimulated by a nearby ULL
Heavy rains over Texas.
Dangerous rains over Texas.
Please keep reading if you did not.
Will talk on models tomorrow
****
10 AM
And, just like that!
NHC wisely put up a yellow area.
This isn't it about a tropical wave or a area of disturbed weather that is already there... it is about the pattern, the possibilities and models tenaciously suggesting possibilities. I lean on the word "possibilities" as that is what this is and also as there are many moving parts to this particular yellow area we are far from knowing what the final solution may be and again that is because there are many moving parts. That sounds redundant but it's the truth.
And this is very Deja Vu of 2025 as the season began with many yellow areas of possibilities and models spun up various solutions. One group insisted it went North and then into NE Gulf, some implied it could pull more to the West (Texas always watches) and others said it could form once it got into the Georgia Bight between Jax and Myrtle Beach. Some took it into Perry (of course) and up into GA and the Carolinas. The actual X was moved around all around Florida. One of the joys of having an online blog it it's my own personal reference guide. So let's look back at what I showed about a year ago.
To be fair the NHC had a yellow circle up over many parts of the Gulf and Florida and models spit out endless possibilities and some took it left, some took it to the right and in actuality the final yellow X cruised around Florida and formed in the Georgia Bight. I talk on the Georgia Bight often, it's an important area for many reasons and especially relevant in the Hurricane Season as any area that cradles a storm while it's in formation stages protects it and helps spin something up as happens in the BOC often. But if a storm moves up that way or across Florida into that area the cradle of the Bight and the warmth of the Gulfstream can enhance both it's strength and moisture content.
This year we also have a strong Upper Level Low that has been down to the South as well as dipping fronts like Dipping Dots Ice Cream, dipping down towards Florida as they fall apart over the Carolinas yet leave a weakness in the atmosphere that if giving the right MJO assist (and that is possible) it can get it's MOJO going. Can as in a possibility not a promise. A definitely maybe. If you know Dipping Dots are fun but it's not like slowly eating an ice cream cone ;) cute but not real....
Back to the present let's look at the area in the Water Vapor Loop, our magical crystal ball that sniffs out things you don't always see on the colorful IR.
There are 2 Upper Level Lows in play.
Down to the South of the frontal complex.
You see moisture down by the Yucatan.
There's your pretty color :)
Oh look a beautiful tropical wave by Africa.
This truly is a beautiful wave.
Too early, too soon but beauty is beauty.
Hopefully holds enough moisture to rain on the islands.
The very dry, thirsty islands could use a wave.
The reds and oranges by the Yucatan.
The ULL nearby is tickling it... amping up it's color.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
