Is Super El Nino Over Hype or Godzilla El Nino Over Hype and Super El Nino Just Right?

 

This is a good map Jeff Berardelli made!
Shows issues few discuss.

While El Nino can shut down some areas....

..other areas such as close in can be open for business.

Also high latitude landfalls close to home...

..along the East Coast and up into Canada!

Florence would be an example.

Michael would be an example.

More on that later...

Also there are new things going on...

...new ways of showing a cone.

Norcross shows how percentages matter!

I like this idea shown below.

Yes, I took some time to watch Bryan Norcross talking on El Nino as well as some general tropical discussion. There has been so much talk on Super El Nino Coming as if it's a promise. And, many see it as an added promise that we don't have to worry on Hurricane Season in the Atlantic. That is wrong. While we are not expecting a hyperactive hurricane season it's hard to say for sure what sort of hurricane season we will have until we are way deeper into July and August. And, as Bryan mentions in this video linked below, Hurricane Andrew that took advantage of a favorable week late in August when the season had been so quiet it was basically dormant. Actually the Hurricane Season of 1992 during an El Nino was playing possum and many bought it hook, line and sinker. Old time Miamians and Cubans watched nervously as they knew signs that sometimes fortell a hurricane would be coming to South Florida. 

What were those signs? It was "beastly hot" early on and it never let up. Crazy hot, record breaking heat and our usual afternoon showers were not so usual. There was a double bloom of the mango trees and then old timers worried on that and no I can't explain the scientific details on how that happens but a double bloom often happens in a year with a hurricane. Then there was a third bloom and people were totally "what the hell" and old timers said to them "oh this is not good" while everyone else was dancing the El Nino Dance which they felt meant "no hurricanes" and as we were deep into August before we had a named storm, it seemed that was a definite thing. But then Andrew formed, and fobbled along trying to find traction and often was in danger of being until it found it's sweet spot and well 1992 became a "not so quiet year" quite suddenly! I use long run on sentences sometimes to express the reality of the Hurricane Season is a long season and it evolves in real time with many obstacles and sudden development or rapid intensificaiton known as RI. 

It actually takes a lot to get a dangeous busy hurricane season going. And, yet sometimes we have dangerous seasons after promises by the media of a quiet season. I want people to remember that and stay aware and prepared!

Michael and Florence in 2018 left scars across the South when they made landfall in a year that was forecast to be quiet and less active. It was an El Nino year and cooler water temperatures seemed to be promised, but as we all know come hurricane season promises often get broken. You can read more on the reasons why 2018 did not end up being a quieter season as many had been led to believe in May and June. 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-11-28-hurricane-season-2018-more-active-than-expected-recap

As always Bryan Norcross is great to listen to and if you are going to listen to discussion on El Nino and how it relates to this Hurricane Season he'd be the one to go to... 

Either way, everyone is talking about it online so you can't miss it!

Since Mike and I are friends and I'm a huge fan as well I will go with his 2026 NAMES graphic!

One of these names may be remembered....

..like Andrew or Florence or Michael!

Spent much time last night going over analog years for 2026 by a variety of good meteorologists. I'll talk more on that later this week. What's interesting is many mention totally different years. There seems to be less agreement this year than usual. Stay tuned. Stay prepared. Stay aware! 

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Here's a popular song from 1992....

...after Andrew.

Not written for Andrew....

...but took on new meaning after Andrew.

2018 was a Busy El Nino. 2013 a Slow Year Not an El Nino. Hurricane Florence Found a Way to Stay Away from El Nino Shutting Down the Carib. Always Stay Prepared!

 

Just some quick thoughts on weather today and as we move towards Hurricane Season. 

First off, Hurricane Season begins on June 1st whether it's a busy season or a quiet season. It's kind of like Football Season. If you are a Miami Dolphin fan it begins on time with a schedule of games and whether they win somehow or lose over and over it's still Football Season. Except when the Fins lose you are upset, rant online or insist you will stop following them or go to the game away and watch the sad, sorry show because you're a die hard Dolphin fan! For Hurricane Researchers and Trackers we watch day by day and if it's slow, quiet it's still Hurricane Season!

2013 Hurricane Season

Hurricane Season always produces named storms. Some years they struggle to get a name, and struggle harder to maintain the name. Take 2013 for example, it produced lots of weak storms that had problems keeping their Mojo going. Ironically, 2013 was not even an El Nino year as there are many factors that can inhibit development besides El Nino. Around storm chasers we do not even whisper the year 2013, but many others were celebrating the calm in the eye of the hurricane season.

Ironically 2018 was as El Nino year! And, yes while the deep SW Carib did stay fairly quiet, Mother Nature found a way to hit the Carolinas by keeping Florence high up in latitude as she crossed the entire Atlantic from Africa where she began as a tropical wave with a plan. I was at some point early on sure she was going to go the distance. No matter what negative conditions she encountered she kept on going, avoiding the Carib ruled by El Nino shear and slammed into the Carolinas. Michael, late in the season, started from a weak area of convection down by the tip of the Yucatan and suddenly there was model discussion and arguing on X and WHAM it slammed into Florida as a Cat 5 punctuation mark to a season that many expected to be quiet.

Check that ACE out.

I am simply saying we are 22 days away from Hurricane Season. Shop when you see specials, hide snacks where no one will find them and prepare as you do every year. Hope and pray the forecasts for a strong El Nino are correct, but forecasts can often be busted and sometimes a storm like Florence will avoid areas hostile in El Nino years and do wild and strange things.

That's a track you rarely see.

But happens.

No one is marked SAFE during Hurricane Season..

...until holiday decorations are up

And November 30th is over!

Hope for the best.

But never rely on early season promises....

And alwaysfollow the advice of the NHC.

To start with follow their Hurricane Prep advice!

I doubled checked with Google AI

I mean Bertha sure shows up a lot....

.... hasn't been retired yet!

Ps what it didn't mention was 1996 was also Bertha.

What's in a name?

1st of 3 storms to hit NC.

Stay tuned....

...weather evolves in real time.

El Nino should lower our number of storms....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Have this song stuck in my mind today.

Why? Don't know...

Love for your Mother

Love for your Aunt, Grandma...

..and best friend!

Or just the one you love.... 

Celebrate love always

• 
  

May. So Much to Say. Prepare for Hurricane Season. Best Advice. El Nino No Guarantee U Won't Get a Hurricane! And Why?

Short on time today and yet I feel it's important to try and get across the idea that even in a weak hurricane season, your home town can be rocked and set back in time while it's being put back together for a long time to come.  The 1921 Hurricane Season, far from a Super El Nino, but never the less there were less storms and yet one of the most impactful hurricanes in Tampa Bay made landfall in that year. Infact, Tampa Bay is more likely to be hit in a quiet year, than a busy year so keep that in mind. 

Odds are a strong El Nino there are less hurricanes. Less hurricanes lower your chances of being impacted, but they do not promise you won't see a named hurricane.

Why?

Honestly Mother Nature, even in 2026, is hard to pin down to exactitudes. Friends in Montana and family in Colorado had Spring like weather throughout the depths of Winter. They sent pics of a "dusting of snow" recently the way people in the Carolinas are excited to see a dusting of snow in the Piedmont areas. And, then in May suddenly Mother Nature delivers a knock out punch with heavy snow on top of trees that not only budded but were filled with leaves.

El Nino can shut down the SW Carib, yet enhance offshore development near Florida (actually on either side) and close in development ups the ante for landfalls. 

Heat Domes 

can create a set up where low pressure forms to the South in the hot water of the Gulf. The water in the Gulf and close in becomes very hot during long, reinforced heat waves. And, early in the season frontal boundaries dangling in hot water have a way of trying to twist and spin. Big messy tropical rains early in the Season can overwhelm coastal towns and the Miami area has horrific drainage in such set ups. 

SAL gets a vote. 

MDR water temperatures get a vote.

The Loop Current gets a vote. 

Surprise events such as Denver's May Snow Storm after mild, summer like hiking weather for months should be a lesson to how fast the atmosphere can flip, sort of the way the stock market as been this year. Sudden spikes after sudden drops. The UP and down nature of 2026 has been a signature. 

So you do what you need to do. You have one job. Buy Supplies on sale when you have money in small amounts. Because if you don't and suddenly you are in Cone close in you may not have the money to buy them as you decided to take a cheap cruise to the Bahamas or blew it on Disney. 

I know people who buy supplies at places such as Target that allow long term returns. I'm not saying that's the coolest thing to do, but it's a thought and it's better than nothing.

Remember Droughts are most often busted by a wet hurricane.

African Wave Train has begun...

...have you begun preparing?

Start with making a list...

To Buy

To Do

Something to think on....

..Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@hobbistorm on X

Jimmy's song is based on a short story...

...by F. Scott Fitzgerald.

He wrote a Fantasy Gene Story.

Tomorrow is May! May Brings Changes BUT Still Fronts Sliding Slowly Along... Watch For Close in Early Season Development. Hurricane Prep Impt Still

 

As move into May....
..I want to highlight this post.
There are still cold fronts.

I should put that like "cold fronts"

Temps lowered not really cold.

But... it's a concern for early in the season.

Note not a deep diving front

But a front.

When we have fronts on the move still in May (the edge of May let's say) we have to watch out for weak systems that form at the tail end of the fronts and while delivering a bit of a punch they are are reminders that we are moving into the Hurricane Season. I am not saying here something will form. I am saying this set up is ripe for either quasi development or actual development in May. We are 32 days away from Hurricane Season and it's time to think on several early concerns.

1. El Nino may come on strong and impact the Hurricane Season, but there's a window in the early season for development in places where normally El Nino would hinder. Don't take "El Nino" to the bank as much as hope it's a sign there are less torms and less storms mean a lower chance one may find it's way to your door. 

2. Fronts on the move or more so draped lethargically across the Gulf can help spark early season development.

3. Water temperatures are only climbing. The news from South Florida this morning is it's gonna be "oh my God HOT" and the 90s are creeping into the picture. As the 90s creep in the water temperatures around the state of Florida dangling down into Hot Tub temperatures wills support early development. 

I have always loved serendipity. 

To drown out the news I put on YouTube.

Listening to some of my favorite weather people.

And he was pointing to the front I was writing about!

So took a screen shot and the link is below....

This is to show you exactly what I am mentioning.

We are in a pattern of change.

Last night in Raleigh we had a wild thunderstorm.

Okay a few minutes but first thunder in ages.

That was wild for me...

...then rain.

Heavy Rain.

Okay a burst of heavy rains.

Moving fast.

The Dry High Pressure is weakening.

Moisture is moving in more regularly. 

And we have these weak fronts.

Again note heavy moisture feed from Pacific.

Up into the SW

Moving East.

Juicing up the atmosphere.

Note moisture congregating in SW Carib.

While El Nino may shut down the SW Carib.

It takes a while for El Nino to get it's Mojo going.

So there's a door left open currently....

So before we all get drunk on El Nino...

...start dancing the Conga Line 

Know it we still have to worry on May June July.

In this neck of the woods.

Note S FL could use rain there's a bad fire.

Forest Fire and smoke hangs there.

Fire Season in the Glades comes before...

..drought busters in May Monsoons

And then Hurricane Season.

Mother Nature has a pattern how she works.

She does her job.

You do yours!

Shop for hurricane supplies.

Holiday sales and Clearance sales after work well.

My brother just called.

He's out in Weston working.

It stinks of smoke :(

Anyway ....

...watch for close in development early in the season.

While El Nino gets it's act together.

You get your act together for Hurricane Season.

Link below to Mr Weatherman on YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hc1eY4kO52w&t=426shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=Hc1eY4kO52w&t=426s

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Prepare for Hurricane Season!

BobbiStorm

Where will I be June 1st?

Maybe Miami

Like to go to the Keys....

..will see.

Where will you be??

The Trouble With El Nino................... the Hype is a Real Thing.............Godzilla El Nino? More Anticipation Than Star Wars! The Empire Strikes Back!!

 

No matter when I go on X it's El Nino Time! All day, all night. Okay, the Oklahoma Tornado did knock it off it's throne, but it bounced back fast!

The discussion is awesome. The discussion is delicious. But the hyperbole ...oh my goodness, send help!

The search for some new name for it has been exhausting to watch.

My gosh, just saying "El Nino is coming!" Wakes me up faster than a Triple Expresso! Seriously....

But it's the Super El Nino! I've heard words that normally would only be used to describe a Miss Universe who became a Super Star Singer with her own show larger than anything Taylor Swift could dream of and well you know she definitely has wild dreams. 

I have read, watched and scrolled. I have bookmarked. I have wondered.......

I have stayed out of the fray as an old friend of mine always pointed out to me it was good to do sometimes. He had a brother that drove him crazy, it's a long story. But may I say........there's a chance this El Nino could be remembered the way 1997 "Mother of All El Ninos" was so who knows????

Going along with that frame of mind, I asked Google for advice. No, I never use Google advice as I always make up my own words as that is what I do but some were interesting...

Hmnnn  I don't know.

We are dealing with the Atlantic Basin here.

Well Mostly...

I tried again........

Ocean's Relentless Stalker seems wrong..

..sort of sneaky, passive agressive.

Who wants a passive agressive El Nino?

Okay I will go with my literary history.

I do so love Tennessee Williams 

"The Big Daddy of El Ninos!!"

You read it here first!!

Okay. 

I think Big Daddy would have a lot to say here.

No promises.

No BS

No lies

Just tell it like it is...

Hard Truths on El Nino:

It's not about the number of hurricanes........

...its about the strength of the ones that make landfall.

Quiet SW Carib.... 

...doesn't stop Rapid Intensifiation close in to Florida

Or Louisiana

Or Mississippi

There are just so many factors that matter. Quieter seasons with "no neck storms" as Big Daddy would say are often boring, exhausting as a weak parade of weak storms trace each other in the Atlantic. No huge ACE and everyone holds their breath and waits, and waits watching each meager wave that doesn't do much until one does.  Think Melissa!   Think Andrew!   Think Michael!  Think Camille!

As I always double check everything before I post I checked and yes they were El Nino Years! So according to Google that seems to suddenly have a strong opinion!! That's all you need to know!

Every year there are predictions that seem set in stone, and yet they are merely thrown out into the online world hoping to get noticed, to gain traction and to elevate the algorithim! To keep the public interested and coming back for more...

Hot Water in the MDR (remember that one???)

Low Wind Shear in the MDR and then there was the Saharan Dust from Hell!

In truth something always pops up. Some wrench in the plan, some wrinkle the forecast did not see coming. A vigorous volcano blows in the Caribbean and suddenly what looked like a strong tropical wave train is derailed and the year turns a wave train that   "can't keep my mojo going!" 

What does Arizona State see that other reports do not? I will post that soon. Stay tuned.

Til then.........hang in there. Stay prepared. It only takes one! El Nino or No Nino Miami has been rocked by Andrew and the Florida Panhandle by Michael! El Nino was said to be weak in 1969 and the weak tropical wave that produced Camille did stay weak in the Neptunian Real of El Nino in the SW Carib but then as it cleared the Yucatan........oh my goodness! 

Just hard truth.............

Don't buy all the hype..........

Buy hurricane supplies, hide them away from the kids, your partner or your own appetite! 

38 Days til June 1st! 

Mother Nature always delivers one way or the other. 

You do your part, because trust me she will do hers..........

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

on X @bobbistorm mostly weather holding back everything in inside thoughts to just do weather

Elsewhere....whatever.

Do you have dreams?

I have dreams....

I try not to dream....

..don't like waking up disoriented.

But we all dream....

..what are your dreams??

Drought in the Carolinas! Fire Weather .... Everyone Wants Rain.......... But a Hurricane Could be the Dought Buster in 2026.

 

In 2018

There's a drought in the Carolinas. There's a drought in the Southeast. There's fires from Florida up through the whole region lacking in rain. And every time someone goes on and on about what a bad drought it is this year, and it is and it's broken records in the general Raleigh area do I have to remind you that often in this neck of the woods a hurricane is what finally breaks the drought. Not always, but enough times. As for Florida where there's more fire bans than you can imagine at campsites around the starte, it's been a concern on the drought and fires. 

Would not be surprising to get a named storm.

But that's down the tropical road... 

Short post today but something people need to remember. When you need a Drought Buster, well you may not like what breaks the drought...

Miami 100 Years Since Great Miami Cat 4 1926 Hurricane. Building Boom Then... Building Boom Now! Nothing Changes....

 

I saw this picture in my feed today on Instagram and I smiled. First off, look how Miami Beach looked once it had been cleared of mangroves and lots were being laid out in 1920! The building on the island there was the Allison Hospital, it later became St. Francis Hospital. It was the anemometer at the hospital that showed the Great Miami Hurricane was a mighty Category 4 before it blew away, gone with the wind. I guess we will never know if it was stronger than that last recording. But, the record stands in modern time for the strongest direct hit from a Category 4 Hurricane to impact Miami proper, unlike Andrew that rampaged down by Homestead across the distant South Dade suburbs. While most Miami people living there in 1992 will insist they went through a REAL HURRICANE, it was nothing compared to Palmetto Bay and Homestead as it made it's way on to Louisiana and Mississipi!

For old-timers in South Florida the big fear is always the one that comes up and over the Islands and makes it's first real hit on Miami from the ESE as they move WNW across the Atlantic from Africa. Okay, the Bahamas felt it, but this was one mean hurricane. Neither Cuba nor Hispaniola get a chance to weaken it. It was a huge hurricane. It was a slow moving hurricane. It was a wet hurricane! Andrew was small and dry. This one had Cat 4 winds, an eye that sneakily came out at sunrise making all the new settlers to Miami during Boom Days think the storm passed and the dawn broke and the storm was gone. They were wrong. Ps the back side was worse then the front side and everything weaked from the first half, crashed wildy about to the ground often plunging people into the swollen waters that flooded the city. It was very wet, very large and slow moving. The exactly opposite of Andrew.

Check that track out.

Threaded the needle of Biscayne Bay!

Aventura today would take one huge hit.

Brickell.

Hollywood-Ft Lauderdale.

Everything inland on it's way to the Gulf.

Some links before for you to peruse.........use....... read and imagine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1926_Miami_hurricane

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/miami_hurricane#:~:text=Damages%20in%201926%20dollars%20were,and%20Louisiana%20on%20September%2021.

100 years ago....

...same as today.

There was a building boom!

It came crashing down!

Mother Nature doesn't care about your party plans..

...or your boom!

So stay tuned....

..September 100 years since that storm.

Will Miami be spared again or ...

...will Mother Nature crash her party?

Besos Bobbi

@bobbistorm on X