Updated 5 PM. TD NINE.Forms in Forecast to be Hurricane Isaias by NHC... Track Easier to See Than Intensity, Many Questions on Intensity.

 

From Zoom Earth ....

That's a lot of cities inland....

...in the path of torrential rain.

NHC has it as Hurricane rain then...

Main info.

Remember NHC generally "opens" conservative.

They have it attaining 100 MPH winds.

Tho could weaken some near landfall..

...often shear is there.

But too soon to really be sure.

Advisory 1 ya know...

Also the big game between 

Alabama and Georgia

scheduled for kickoff at 

1 PM Saturday.

In Alabama currently in the Cone.

And note that'd be a fast moving storm.

Or depression moving in with flooding concerns.

When you move UP inland there...

(a rare track)

with elevation you get flooding.

A bit concerning.

Either way this has the potential to bust

that 100 MPH 

tho currently I need to see some proof.

But I would not take it off the table

I'll be back later this evening with more info

from Recon and the NHC.

Cone adjustments happen ...

...nothing carved in stone.

Check on what you need...

...should soon to be Isaias

be on it's way to you.

For now..... TD NINE

Had a friend that loved this song...

....so did my mother lol.

Keep reading if you haven't done so today.

4 PM below, still relevant.

3 PM - 100% Red Hot.

Upgrade coming soon...

This is evolving amazingly fast.

7 hours ago it looked like this below.

Seven hours.

That "center" tighened up fast.

What that means in the long term...

...time will tell.

Need better info from Recon.

92L up above.

92E down below.

2 systems. 

Trying to develop.

Close together... 

92E losing the Invest race.

90%

Both should get a name.

Wondering how much fame though...

Going wide......

PS 92L is not by Tampa.

Tampa getting heavy rain.

Old front stalled out across Florida.

More fronts will dive down soon.

That's what the NWS says... 

92L consolidating in the BOC.

In the Atlantic Basin...we are at 100%

Ready to roll.

Upgrade of some kind coming soon...

Maybe at 5 or maybe 11 PM.

Time will tell ....

...and it's timing will tell the end game.

How fast it develops.

How fast it moves.

Timing.... always matters.

Especially in the Gulf.

Where you run out of time ..

..faster than in the MDR.

Mimic Image below

92L is settling in down in the cradle of the BOC where she has some protection from negative factors for now and more of an ability to pull it together. I'd say ISAIAS is on the way. But where will it go? Models show different scenarios though all have the same general direction showing us where the Cone will be for now. 

In the short term Eastward movement should be expected ... at some point a movement towards the North will begin. This to me would infer this named storm will be stronger vs messier in the beginning. Stronger storms generally go North faster than wobbly ones that wiggle around in circles hugging the coast. Always exceptions. The High Pressure to it's East should.... keep it away from Florida, but it's way too early for me to say that is what will happen. We are still in the early formation period. The point is the intensity estimates are all over the place. Again, once we have good data from today's recon sampling the atmosphere and tomorrow going into the ?? storm ?? and better info allows for better forecasts. I know it sounds dry and dull and boring, but it's the truth.

There are scenarios where Isaias can get into a sweet spot and take advantage of that and intensify more than many would imagine in this overly hurricane drought, but I do think the drought it going to be over and we will have a hurricane. Beyond that... not ready to say what kind of Hurricane. Not the NHC, but do think we hit hurricane status most likely.

I'll update later today or tonight, if and when the NHC updates and makes a Cone and gives discussion. Otherwise I'd just be talking rumors and suggestions and possibilities, I prefer giving more than hype.And, I will later.

Stay tuned....... stay aware and expect surprises, because it's October. Storms can get tricky in October. 

Be back soon........ Bobbi

11 PM thoughts.......updated .......Invest 92L 80% Development BOC into the Gulf. Then What? New Orleans to Cedar Key Pay Attn ... Recon Set to Go In Tomorrow.

Leading with this as it's well written.

Good graphics.

Personally getting a bit tired of over hyped posts using wild colorful jagged fonts and the same RED ORANGE YELLOW colors screaming at me. I know AI is fun, but you do realize when you are making the graphic it almost always comes out like everyone elses right? There are exceptions. This seems to be wanting to form. All signs seem primed for something coming together in that cradle of BOC that has birthed many systems (Milton for one) and then it's a crap shoot where it goes and when. Some people have runaway with the ball insisting Major Hurricane while the conservative ones are saying Tropical Storm maybe Cat 1. I'd go with Category 1. Yes, tropically starved chasers in this part of the world are salivating over all the possibilities. With 1001 and models (both regular and AI) you can draw lines across every part of the Gulf. 

Does it form fast?

Does it move fast?

Does it wander around hugging the coast of the BOC?

I still go with New Orleans to Cedar Key. I'd add in Lafayette it's got history this year.

A quick fast bend to the left or to the right can create chaos in preparation for all of the people lucky enough to live along the beautiful coastline there. A part of the South I truly love. 

So stay tuned. Recon goes in tomorrow. We will know soon nuff ;)

Obviously watching the tracks that criss cross Mississippi and Alabama as some pull it up over the Carolinas vs the ones that take it North.

Waiting on Recon tomorrow.........

stay informed on the storm if you live anywhere near these spaghetti tracks! Nite.

Comparing this to what it looks like...
...tomorrow night.

Lots of moisture, lots.

Even if it stays weak...

...the rain totals, inland flooding

could be bigger than many realize.

That's a whole lot of moisture and...

..note again it's one region vertically

Stay aware and prepared.

Earlier in the day....still 80% by the way

92L 80% chances in 7 days
60% in 2 days.

WV loop below.

 

Let's look at models.

Will give my thoughts after that.

Been away a few days. Back now.

Good timing....

92L now has an 80% chance of development.

The above is the Euro.. Friday.

Below is the GFS .. Friday.

Typically faster in development.

Stronger.

Same day.

Worth noting Icon and others see development.

AI models so far like the chances.

Spaghetti Models in general agreement.

Going wide we see our Invest down below.

To it's NE we see a flow of moisture...

draped across the SE

That's the current set up.

Going wide below

There really is only one way for it to go.

IT would be ISAIAS 

should it get a name. 

But the wrinkle is...

...things change in real time.

Basically we have a stalled out frontal zone across Florida. Between the two orange/gold areas shown above. But much depends on timing. There's some models that lift it more to the North and then NNE or NE or North... . There's a dip in the atmosphere due to come down, that lifts it some and tries to grab it. Does the dip really "do" anything or does it stall out? How strong is that dip? How strong is our Invest then?

This is your typical Gulf set up in October when fronts have begun dipping down and systems in the BOC try to form. It always comes down to timing. Everything in life ...comes down to timing.

We have 80% chances of development, code red, in the BOC for a Gulf System

1 92L is very visibly trying to find some spin, find it's groove.

2 There's a huge stalled out front easily seen on the satellite imagery above.

3. It'll bobble around trying to find traction and possibly gain a name. The "I" name.

4. I'd watch out for odd surprises of any kind.

    Timing.

    Looping.

    Sudden burst of energy and attempt to move faster.

5 The area from New Orleans to Cedar Key needs to pay attention to how this evolves in real time.

6. The timing and strength of any "dip down" matters. Every thing matters.

7. Recon should go in tomorrow and we should have actual hard data to work with vs models. Models will have more to work with........

There is a chance IF it pulls together and there's a window of opportunity it can move faster than expected. There's about the same chance it slowly, stalls, slides and sort of glides along dealing with shear and not the best conditions .... 

And it can wobble around until it sees an opening. The question is does that window of opportunity, that window to develop allow it to develop? Maybe.

We will know more tomorrow. Definitely something to watch. Always best when models get real data!

Garbage in garbage out. Good data in, better data out. 

Sometimes these systems surprise us.... it is October ;)

A lot of moisture. 

What you see today may look very different.

Later this week.

Stay tuned

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

I'm not saying it'll go to Alabama.

But this is in honor of

NWS Mobile

IYKYK

Yes we Southern girls just love this movie.

;)

10% Yellow X Fay. Does NHC Put Up A Yellow X Near the Yucatan This Weekend? Either Way Flooding Rains in Key West Yesterday. What Begins in Havana Usually Ends Up in Key West or Florida. October Brings Surprises of the Tropical Kind. Isaias or Just Rain???

Yellow X 10%

Below we see weak tropical waves.

More like "impulses"

A frontal boundary....

...that's pumped up by Tropical Moisture

...from the EPAC

Is that beautiful?

Tons of tropical moisture in the Caribbean from the Yucatan across the West tip of Cuba into the Eastern Gulf and slamming the Florida Keys with moisture. Well, actually Key West feels it first and then it often slides up towards Tampa.  What begins in Havana usually ends up in Key West and that's a general rule when there's something tropical going on down there. Currently, there is nothing organized, but oh the amount of flooding in Key West yesterday was epic. They had more rain yesterday, than they got from Hurricane Wilma.

Fronts are the name of the game.

This time of year we watch the Gulf.

North of the Yucatan.

Sometimes something spins up.

Note the lows along the front.

Stalled out front.

Hot water.

See below.......

October 7th thru October 13th.

Something could try and form.

If it formed it would probably be sheared.

Just something to think on...

Currently........

The swirl in the BOC

Swirling around.

Pumping up more moisture...

across Cuba towards Florida.

You can see it better on the WV below.

Stalled front.

Soggy set up.

It could get a name....

.... maybe, maybe not.

If so the name is the I storm.

Isaias

Ya never know.... 

so keep watcthing.

As for the EPAC

The post game show is the photography.

While Josh @iCyclone chased the storm, and shared both the wrath and the fury .... he also shares the actual impacts of the storm. He is always good at that as he has an eye for detail. He stays, he helps and he records the data and the history. And, with an artists eye he records the beauty you find in the after the storm moments. The way people work together then congreagate togeteher to talk and share information or just left off some steam. He showed a set of four images this morning .... zooming in the way a photographer does at things sometimes harder to see in a wide shot of one photo. What a shot. I've lived in California, traveled the desert Southwest and seen sunsets where the Pacific peaks through the way it does here. Yet, I don't think I've ever seen it showed so well but then.... that is Josh. Anyway, this is the 3rd photo in the sequence. They all are incredible, but this one literally takes my breath away. His photography often looks more like a painting than a photo. It captures a moment in time. 

Something about after a hurricane, after the storm has passed on and pummeled the landscape and tattered the trees. You find bits and pieces of awnings and store signs littering your mother's lawn close to the roses she tended carefully always. The sun sets, it gets very dark. It gets dark in a way that you have never imagined, unless you have been through a hurricane. Every shadow, every illumination...  be it by the moon rising in a dark sky or the sun setting catches your attention. Birds returning, flying about become your entertainment as you are detached and removed from your normal routine. 

Zoom in to this zoomed in shot by @iCyclone.

The last in his series of four photos.

Look at the detail.

Where does your eye travel to?

The sky? The ribbons in the sky?

Or the buildings below.

???

I'll be back Sunday night.

I would not be surprised if NHC

hoisted a yellow circle

before I'm back on.

Fay will eventually fade away.

Everything has an expiration date.

Enjoy the weekend!

Enjoy the moments!!

October is a month that often....

...brings tropical surprises.

Somewhere.

Maybe it'll just be flooding rains.

Or a named storm...

Scooting NE catching a front on the move.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever ..

X Fay. Gonzalo Gone But Easy to Find It's Remnants. Hanna Got a Name.... No Real Fame. Real Fame Goes to No Name/Coastal Storm/Nor'easter and Polo Being Chased & Will Be a Player in Future USA Weather. Change for the Seasons ....

 

Introducing TS Hanna

45 MPH winds

Moving East at 17 MPH.

Using this particular NHC cone as it shows where it is and how far away it is and it's moving East so not really a concern currently to any place. Ships at sea do need to be aware it is there.  

Fay, TD Fay is to the South headed SW.

2026 really wanted to be different...

...and it is for sure.

Hanna is to the North

shh sort of embedded there in that cloud mass

Hmmm...

TD Fay looks very good for a dying TD.

I can see Fay easily.

I can see Gonzalo's remnants  

Hanna...hmmnn....if they say so.

This is not such a strange hurricane season ...because it's a Super El Nino... as much as very confusing decisions that show no consistency on naming, upgrading and downgrading systems in the Atlantic. Many good meterologits I know (legendary ones) were shocked NHC didn't at least put up a yellow area where the "coastal low AKA Nor'easter" was forming in the Bahamas nor did they make it a subtropical or call it a hybrid storm providing a cone and information that could be more easily understood. And, yet they downgraded Fay only for her to come back again. I said online she wasn't done and was still there and she did indeed "come back" and she is still very easily discernable system.. Gonzalo was downgraded and yet it's very easy to see it's remnants both on satellite imagery and on Earthnull. The "Coastal Storm aka Nor'easter" had an actual "eye" and yet it was "connected still to a ...." and yet Hanna is almost impossible to find but she is a very naked swirl connected to all the other systems around it. Make it make sense. Be consistent. Be Helpful.

Whatever... luckily I don't work there and have to go along with things that make no sense. I ran a large academic library at a college in charge of said library and the decisions that were made were often putrid, but it was what it was and it was a job and after getting remarried I moved away to the Carolinas and I don't have to sign off on things that were not good for the students or the set up itself. 

Will see what NHC does in their post game analysis period.

In truth the Nor'easter/Coastal Low helped move the energy from the tropics (it began it's journey in the Bahamas fed by a long, tropical moisture plume from the Caribbean and was funneled North towards the more Northern latitudes which is basically what the purpose is of tropical systems in September to do. And, we had cool, beautiful weather in the Carolinas that got funneled down on the backside of the storm that never got a name. But hey ... Hanna lives for a day or so.  Rant is over.

On the other side of the world... in the EPAC chasers are chasing and we are watching. And, the energy from these EPAC land falling systems will move up into the USA and also help prod the change of the seasons along. The way Mother Nature works is amazing. She gets it done one way or ther other be it a Coastal Storm/Nor'easter or Polo or the combination of both.

Always watch tail end of fronts.

Have a wonderful week.

I'm home, back and tracking.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbistorm 

Cody Johnson makes the best songs...

...and the best "movies" in his videos.

They really tell a story... 

.... they rope you in.

enjoy both videos.

Fay & Gonzalo. And the "Coastal Storm Turning Into a Nor'easter" Long Name When Not a Hurricane BUT Can Bring Hurricane Like Damages to Many Places

 

Named storms above.

No Name Storm below

Busy on a holiday vacation so keeping this short. We will see in real time what sort of damages and where the No Name Nor'easter will cause a long the coast. In Raleigh part of the sky was cotton white and the rest was deep beautiful blue. The white was the edge of the storm out in the Atlantic. That really make me stop, think....and stare that even this far inland part of it's shield was close enough to see. 

Take all precautions the NWS or local experts tell you and remember trees are still leaf heavy and able to topple over faster slicing into someone's home and that's deadly. As deadly as basements that flood and highays that flood. Take it seriously and err on the side of safety til it's long gone. 

And hopefully we are moving into Fall.

I'll be back Monday.

Have a safe good weekend

BobbiStorm

Safe Harbor.... 

Stay safe.

TS Fay in Atlantic. Strong Coastal Storm Off East Coast... Weather Impacting Carolinas North Today. Some Coastal Flooding in VA. Where Does IT Go & Is Gonzalo Forming by African Wave?

 

Let's start here...

Right to Left.

Invest 90L looks like Gonzalo wannabe...

(I know NHC busy with EPAC)

Little small storm in the middle is FAY

Because FAY came back as I thought she might.

Note the ITCZ with strong color.

Next we have our coastal storm.

Will look deeper at that soon.

Note the linkage between the Yucatan ...

..and the flow from the front.

EPAC just gone bonkers

Lastly but most important.

The High pressure (purple) is pressing down.

Capping it all and trapping it for now.

The Coastal Storm may be a looper.

Fay is a beautiful little spinner!

Officially they have Invest 90L at 70%

Why it's not higher or upgraded not sure.

I know NHC busy but check out loop below

Zoom in on the center like area...

Sure looks like a candidate for upgrade soon.

Here you can see Fay & 90L

Gonzalo?

As for the coastal storm, that really is the story today, it's not 100% clear where it will go and what impacts places will have from it as it is still evolving. There is a mid-level or upper level low over Appalachia that's swirling. You have high pressure to the North of the Coastal Low possibly trapping it ...capping it from moving further North and that could aid in the Nor'eater looping around, hanging around the coast. How close to the coast is the question and models, of course, disagree. But how can you have that many models not expect them to disagree and see different scenarios? It's one thing to watch 5 or 6 and another to deal with 101 models (AI and regular and ensembles) making it harder for those who rely heavily on models vs synoptics who are more able to tune out the "noise" when making a forecast.

I'll add "noise" is huge today as everyone is trying to make the best AI image to grab your attention away from a post that might actually explain with words what is really going to evolve.

IE Is this mostly a coastal event or is it possible inland cities and towns along the NY/CT border meaning lower Hudson River Valley or is this just an problem for Long Island and New England? Thxaere's just so many questions. And as it's early in Fall and most leaves have not fallen from the trees in that region they will get wet, top heavy and there may be more power outage issues than many realize far from the actual beach. 

Later today we should have a better idea, better forecast of exactly where the low forms and how it sets up in relation to the many weather factors that will get a vote in what happens as this storm develops into a September Nor'easter including "forward speed" of the Nor'easter. Also how far South it really goes into Florida, does it really make it to Cuba? Either way and if so watching the tail end of a front dangling down into hot tropical waters could help set up some spinner that could get a name ....way down the tropical road. 

When I say "many players" involved in the developing 2026 September Nor'easter take a look at this great map filled with all the players by Content Weather. It's very complicated........

More later today or tonight. 

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps Note this song below comes from The Perfect Storm and the Perfect Storm was October and involved with Hurricane Grace. Note it was 1991 an El Nino was developing and they were only on the G storm in late October so in a strange way perhaps .... this year when we are in search of Gonzalo as we move into October that may be an interesting year to look at analog wise for this particular Nor'easter in late September. Nice song. Good book. Great movie. I even have a tee shirt ;) from it. Definitely the right geographical region of the month is a bit early. And nowhere near as strong an El Nino as we have now but it's an interesting analog in ways. 

Updated 5 PM TD Fay is Back.........X. Invest 90L African Wave... Hawaii & Hurricanes in 2026. East Coast Storm Adds Travel Quetions For Many

Check it out she had a Cone again !

Forecast to be a TS again

 

time will tell....

...we will see

 

Does Invest 90L develop too?

9 AM below..

 

Looks who is back?

Fay. Or X Fay.

Wannabee Fay again...

And our newest wave knows....

....about the shear.

Knows where our tropics are hot

and where they are not.

So heading up towards Azores?

Will see what it really does... if it gets a name.

For people addicted to the GFS

That's Monday as per the GFS

take with a spoon of sea salt :)

You can't make up 2026 Hurricane Season. Patterns are dug in deep, in ways set in stone yet there are still many questions on the "coastal storm" for lack of another name and no it is not the return of Sandy.  I made a joke this week I think to ChickNC that I'd pay attention to Fay if she crossed 65W or maybe 60W and I said that as I did think there as some possibility that as she headed South and tried to find a place to survive she might get further West than expected previously. But that's a total long shot though sometimes long shots pay off. I might just wander around as it's small and small systems have the ability to sometimes hang in there or not.

Everything this week is like Trick or Treat? Plan A or Plan B or maybe even Plan C in the Atlantic. The Atlantic is an unfriendly place this year and Hawaii has problems with any storm that has L in the name, is that strange or what?

That flow out of the tropics is wide and long.

Not very concentrated.

X Fay is below.

I just can't today.

Maybe later.

I have places to go and need fresh air.

And ya know what?

it's in the 60s temperature wise..

...not longitude wise in Raleigh.

Goint out.

Going shopping.

Wearing my boots.

It's 60 degrees!!!

Love ya all

Will update later

Ps will proof read later ;)

Living in the moment today :)