A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Monday Morning Mish-Mosh on Tuesday Morning Post Memorial Day Look at the Tropics.... Caribbean Tropical Rains on the Menu Today in the South
This week the Special is ... Caribbean Tropical Rain!
Gotta love Grok... it really nails the concept.
Always messes up the map tho.
But it made me laugh.
Laughter is good.
I'm in a go with the flow mood today.
So is Mother Nature!
Made this late last night to show the flow... ...Mimic shows it below as well!
Many of us love the MIMIC which is a loop that basically shows moisture or in this case rain as seen in the orange cells on the move in the South. Blue means dry, blue purple means very dry! That's the simple explanation. This above is a frozen moment in time on the Mimic Loop. Yellow, orange, red and oh my gosh pinks show varying degrees of heavy moisture aka rain in that order. If you see pink you can officially go "OMG" and if you remember the Mimic image of Melissa that looked like Barbie Melissa you will know what I mean. Actually after hot pink it gets this almost fuschia color you definitely don't want to see. It's a conveyor belt of tropical humidity, moisture and rains from the tropics and currently it's propelling tropical rains and humidity up into the Deep South.
But here today it means RAIN maybe on your wedding day or graduation day or "no way I am driving to work in this rain today" and please remember we have been in a bad drought so we can definitely use the rain. The farms definitely could use the rain as the corn is planted and needs the rain to survive on many small farms especially.
Think of it as a Moisture Highway or maybe kind of like a Food Truck serving Caribbean Tropical Rains while it's parked there until it decides to go somewhere else. Today it may be parked over Alabama and Northern Florida moving around the South bringing y'all the feel of the Caribbean complete with humidity rain and helping our farm plants to grow. We desperately need the rains up here in the Carolinas. As for Florida ...especially the South Florida area the complaints have already been registered online.
Splish Splash Miami Rains return....
..began on time.
Hurricane Season might begin on time too!
But time will tell....
But first let's look at why it's raining ...
...in Raleigh as well as Miami.
In this case blue doesn't mean snow...
...just so you know.
80-90% Humidity Muggy in Raleigh today.
I ain't going out.
Freezer filled with Ice Cream.
Seriously tho....
What you need to know today is that the RAINS have shown up on time and the Miami Monsoons that hit at 3 PM every day have arrived on time in full force. Even in Raleigh where the ground was dry, cracked and depressing the rain is back, the humidity is back and the heat is on!
After the Rainy Season begins in the South we move on into the Hurricane Season in 6 days. The Bermuda High is parked in place and it's funneling heavy tropical moisture into the South. From New Orleans to Alabama to Tallahassee and on up into Georgia and the Carolinas we are in it!
Some models have been having fun spinning up weak, possible areas of interest in the Gulf, in the Florida Straits and some show something trying to develop once it gets into the area off the East Coast of Florida where early season wannabees often try and form into a quasi low pressure area. We are at IFFY still on the "do you believe this will happen scale" but we are all watching.
I like Mr. Weatherman on YouTube.
He gives a fast, in depth look at the tropics.
As well as local weather for those looking to cruise.
He gets to the point (unlike me) and he's good.
Sometimes he stays under 15 minutes!
Whoah! Check him out!
So this area that may form starts near the Yucatan.
Which is a typical breeding ground for June storms.
And as it's May it may or may not form.
But June is coming real soon!
I'm not saying anything will form, but I can't say nothing will form or more somethng may try and form. Much depends on a weak cold front that could lift a "tropical disturbance" some and then leave it off the SE Coast as happens often in late May. This is a whole lotta rain and sometimes pressures will drop and it's good to watch and pay attention as sometimes early season systems... Invests... even Depressions form close in and drop obscene amounts of rain on South Florida or flirt with the Carolinas.
This is the 7 day Rain Forecast.
Purple means build an Ark.
And up in the mountains of the Carolinas...
...rain and terrain cause flooding.
Flash Flooding sometimes.
As Gerald a good meteorologists knows!
Good post by Gerald Mengel!
@GMengel follow him!
There's a flood threat there....
...vs an annoyance during rush hour in Miami.
Follow the flow up from ...
Central America...
into the Gulf Up into The South
Rains have arrived.
And they ain't going away...
...anytime soon!
You get the idea!
I'll be mentioning ppl to follow this week.
Sites that are good to have on hand.
And info you may need to know.
Curious what TWC was selling today during the Tropical Update time of day and they had a good segment with an insurance agent explaining what "comprehensive coverage for automobiles" is and why your cute new van that was parked outside near the house may not be covered if it is crushed by a heavy brance in a hurricane. Many do not realize this.. it happens and it's always a surprise to newbies who had no idea that their main form of transportation was going to be a casualty to Category 1 Hurricane that welcomed them their tropical neigborhood. Seriously talk to your insurance agent about this and never assume as you will be out of luck if you are not properly covered.
This can happen to you.
We were safely in the house during a mild Cat 1 Hurricane that is still capable of cracking huge branches off of certain trees in the Miami area. Suddenly we heard a huge CRACK! and we ran outside in the protected area where the wind wasn't really impacting us ... but allowed us to see the 2nd CRACK break a huge branch off across the street and watched in real time as it slammed down onto a neighbor's new red shiny sportscar! And, I mean the branch smashed the front of the car, caved in the top of the car and the back of the car while my son's all went "ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh damn" at the same time. We shut the door fast. Can happen to you so make sure you are properly covered as many people are not and they are out of luck and a car.
June a Week away... 7 Days!! Watch Close In Development for June Hot Spots. Can Development Sneak In Before Speedy Gonzales El Nino Turns Into Godzilla El Nino? Could History Be Repeating? Hurricane Alma 1966 ... Pay Attn!
Hurricane Season begins in 7 days.
1 Week!
So let's take a look at June that is not coming too soon, but on time in a week from now. We already see the signs in the models, especially the GFS, showing possible development down near the Yucatan that may or may not be able to spin something up. But what the GFS is showing you, as are the other models that jumped on board before the GFS went into a hiding again, is where to watch for signs of possible early season development!
A common area to watch is down near the Yucatan. Sometimes it's in the Bay of Campeache and other times it's down in the Caribbean near Honduras and then it moves up into the Yucatan Passage between the Yucatan and Cuba and from there it all depends on what is going on in the atmosphere on any given day. Sometimes it tries to form, or it doesn't form and decides to park itself over the Florida Straits dropping obscene amounts of rain over Miami. Other times something tries to develop and weakly wobbles around attaining Invest status and the media jumps on it reminding everyone that it's Hurricane Season. And, on rare occaisions such as in 1966 Hurricane Alma formed in June. Rare, but it happens. Usually June storms are Tropical Storms or Tropical Depressions, but in 1966 Alma became the real deal. My friend on X known as @Weather_Earth25 would remind you that 1966 was a Fire Horse in Chinese Astrology as is 2026!
Oh! Look where it formed!!
Nice satellite pic for 1966!
Fast forward to 2026!!
Check out that flow!!
Mike's Weather Page... aka SpaghettiModels.com
And yes I know ... El Nino is coming!
Building it's profile every week bit by bit.
Speedy Gonzales!!!
on it's way to transforming into
Godzilla El Nino!!!!!
But know it'll take a while for it to set up road blocks.
Early in the season when close in development is likely.
Memorial Day Sales.... Lots of Snacks, Drinks, Paper Plates ....Buy Extra & Put Them Away for Hurricane Season. Watching Models....
Just a note...
...it's that time of year.
GFS and other models sniffing around.
Like a hungry puppy.
Some very long range models such as the GFS were seeing something near the Western tip of Cuba, others were insinuating something in the Gulf close in tries to form. Basically it's rainy season in the tropics so for now everyone is discussing the El Nino that is setting up and watching models that are sniffing around for June 6th and everyone else is doing Memorial Day. Choose wisely....
I'll be offline until Satuday Night as I have a holiday and well I will be offline.
Will EPAC Develop Something Soon? ULL Flirting with Carolinas .... Carolinas Hoping for Rain from a Front. Way TOO HOT in Late May...
Really my main thoughts for today are the Upper Level Low off the SE Coast is flirting with the Carolinas and we are surely hoping it comes to visit for a just long enough to enhance our rain chances tomorrow from the slow moving frontal boundary. As always systems such a as this are magnetically drawn towards the fronts that will in time take them out to sea. But this is not a storm or an Invest, just a li'll swirl we are watching. It's a sign of a pattern change as we move towards June.
Going wider we see the big picture.
Oh look at the Pacific!
With El Nino on the way.....
...it'll impact Pacific storms in a big way.
For now it's just something we are watching.
Shear is moving from SW to NE across the Carib.
moisture up thru Texas going:
Boom! Boom! Boom!
As the sun begins to set on this loop.
Moisture off SE Coast is odd...
part moving towards the coast.
part anchored a bit E of FL
E of Bahamas.
Remember the Lows down near South America...
...shuffle across Panama on their way to the EPAC
Unless there is some surprise in the Atlantic..
...the EPAC usually goes first in development.
Stay tuned...
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
X mostly weather
elsewhere whatever
We are all tired of being hot, hot, hot and it's only May.
96 in Raleigh! What Season Are We In Again? 2026 Hurricane Season May Break All the Rules! Mother Nature Doesn't Care What You Want or Expect!! Lots of Surprises. Close In Concerns Due to Piling Up Warm Water! This Movie May Have a Surprise Ending!!
So much to talk on today.
But really the talk is the pattern.
The phase we are in ....
Moving towards Hurricane Season.
One tropical wave at a time.
One huge Bahama Blob...
...making it's move towards the Carolinas.
A colorful flow at 8 AM into South Texas!
The black hole out in the distant Atlantic.
I am not expecting development. i'm just enjoying the show
Upper Level Low?
Or a possible Subtropical player?
Can't rule it out but very low chances.
2% maybe.
Check back tomorrow....
..but I did play with Earthnull.
Again just playing with parameters.
Not sure what kind of movie theme 2026 has but it reminds me of an old movie my ex-husband loved called American Werewolf in London! It was kind of a horror movie, but it was also a comedy, it had a good soundtrack and it started the Dr. Pepper Man and if you know you know. No not one of the Beatles and I'm more an 80s and 90s girl so just saying.
What kind of Hurricane Season are we going to see really?
Depends on who you talk to...
No Season it's all cancelled!! El Nino OMG ...GODZILLA EL NINO!!
Why can't it be a King Kong El Nino I wonder????
Others insist there is a strong chance of development in various regions from close in to far out in the Atlantic. Some say we will have two ITCZs! One flowing along East to West at a high latitude and the other down low where storms make a deep dip before bouncing back up.
A quieter season by the numbers in theory, though the possibly intense where storms finally form once they find a sweet spot.
Yesterday's high temperature in Raleigh was 96 degrees. Mother Nature didn't consult me or ask what I wished for and that is actually the most likely theme to remember for 2026. Mother Nature doesn't care what you wish for, nor what kind of hurricane season you want nor how much ACE you hope for of if you are a tracker who doesn't care if they are all cruising the Atlantic going nowhere nor if you are a chaser. You do not get a vote. And often all the best scenes in a movie are in the trailer and the movie is rather mediocre and to make it worse you saw all the really good scenes in the trailer already so you feel a bit cheated.
1906 is the record we beat yesterday!
It held in Raleigh for 120 years!!
Oh it was also an El Nino year.
2 of the most memorable historic hurricanes...
are on the books.
Long trackers.
Scribble Scrabble trackers.
Not all El Nino years are equal.
@WeatherProf on X
I realized Philly is flirting with 98 degrees today.
..I stopped complaining on the heat in Raleigh.
Flip flop temperatures.
Oh an ocean temperature anomaly is out there.
He does a good job with his graphics..
..just the right amount of info & color.
Sums it up fast and see the facts!
We have an area of record warm water...
...off the East Coast of Florida.
It's also warm from the Isle of Youth in Cuba
up to Key West...
and up into the Gulf.
Again "close in concerns"
Also I'd say from OBX to Cape Cod...
on up to Newfoundland they could get landfalls.
As always time will tell.
Speaking of time...
...it's Tuesday Morning 13 Days til June 1st!
So let's take a look at that trailer...
...for the movie that had the best soundtrack.
But wasn't what most people expected!
I think it may be a wild and crazy ride this season ..
May 15th Start of EPAC Hurricane Season! May 15th Start of the South Florida Miami Monsoons aka Rainy Season. Hope & Pray El Nino Lowers Your Chances of a Landfalling Hurricane. But Stay Prepared. Analogy to Keep Your Inhaler on You IF U Have Asthma... Only Takes One....
Check that out!
Cantore doing a Tropical Update.
Highlighting EPAC ....
...which begins TODAY!
Nothing for the next 7 days!
But on May 15th NHC begins TWO
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic.
Nothing in the next 7 days!
Atlantic Season officially begins June 1st.
Sometimes May systems slip in early so...
...we always watch.
This worries me this year....
as El Nino it pulling it together.
Keeping the season slower than normal.
But there is a window early on.....
...before El Nino is in control!
In other news...
...related as it's part of the weather cycle in Miami.
Rainy Season begins.
Humidity climbs horribly high.
Rains begin.
Pressures drop.
then ...
Hurricane Season begins!!
The two are intricately tied together.
On X Florida Rainy Season also trending!
That's a thing.
My favorite pic online below:
I took this pic chasing with my best friend!
Miami Monsoons.
End of May through August.
June is usually epic.
Every year is different tho....
Growing up in Miami the Miami Monsoons that begin usually in late May are often stronger than most Category 1 Hurricanes. Okay, they don't last as long, but the sky turns ten shades of black with some purple and dark indigo thrown in and a few highlights of purple rambunctious! The wind begins to howl, thunder and lightning snap loudly and the rains are monsoonal and create a deluge just as you are about to leave school at dismissal. As a child growing up in Miami at 3PM on the dot the dismissal bell would ring and the loudest thunder would boom and the sky would suddenly let go and drop torrential rains as you run to the car if your parents picked you up or run for cover if they did not. Sometimes they'd hold off until we'd get halfway home while walking over the catwalk that took us across the Palmetto Expressway where we'd stand too long watching the violent line of storms moving closer debating how much time we had before we were in danger of being zapped by lightning or drenched in rain.
When I grew up in the Roads Section the timing was never for sure, but often sometime in the late afternoon. When my parents moved further out West to Westchster when I was 7 you could literally tell the time by the wild sky and thunder and lightning at exactly 3 PM. Years later they moved to Miami Beach and again sometimes you get them sometimes you don't as the severe thunderstorms with cloud to ground lightning strikes would move more to the North and let loose over North Miami Beach or more to the South and slam into Coconut Grove and Coral Gables and some would actually make it to Miami Beach. They usually build up over the Everglades, deep in the interior of Florida and move with the wind flow. Sometimes they go West towards Naples and other times they move East over Miami. Either way, one way or the other someone is gonna get slammed with afternoon thunderstorms with the intensify of a Tropical Storm of weak hurricane! Probably why local Miami people don't get nervous until the hurricane intensifies or there is an actual Hurricane Warning as often a weak category one doens't have the punch of a Miami Monsoon!
And yet......local, old Florida people KNOW they need to stay prepared. They don't pay much attention to El Nino Hype anymore than they do worry on an Invest or a Tropical Storm Watch. Infact, a Tropical Storm Watch means you call in sick and hit the beach to watch the waves and feel a bit of wind. Just being honest. But they know and you should know you must stay prepared and stay aware even in an El Nino Year.
Seems some of the people on X think I am a denier and don't believe an El Nino is coming our way. They must be newbies. I know, I'm watching and juggling analog years in my head as I wait to see what kind of El Nino we actually get in the end. And, that's important as often an El Nino builds in fast and the media jumps on it promising a Hurricane Free Pass for the Hurricane Season. That is really unwise, but hey everyone clicks on the links. El Nino is all the rage!! Why? Because sometimes an El Nino builds, then digs in to one particular part of the Pacific and depending on where the El Nino drops anchor makes all the difference. And that we won't know for sure until it happens in real time. Many times models have been wrong in some degree about El Nino and sometimes despite El Nino the water stays warm in the Atlantic and we end up with a busy season despite El Nino. Yes, El Nino often shuts down the deep SW Carib, but it isn't a "Get Out of Jail Card" and you all need to remember that.
Let me explain it like this:
Say you have a mild problem with asthma. You don't often get a severe attack, but you have once in a while. A random bad asthma attack happens and you reach into your pocket or purse and grabbed your inhaler, take a few puffs carefully and the attack begins to wane and you were glad you were prepared and didn't leave it home thinking you'd be fine. All of us have done that at one time or another and often gotten we get lucky. Once at a wedding when I danced like crazy I felt an asthma attack coming on and realized I didn't take it as it didn't fit in my little purse and tried to remember who in the room had asthma and quickly asked them to borrow theirs and luckily that worked. Sadly, it doesn't always work.
Recently my daughter went to a funeral and saw a huge heart sticking out above the other tombstones and it revealed that the young teen died young. She felt bad, she asked me to find out who the girl was and how she died. Shayna is like that, if you know you know, so rather than argue I did some fast research and saw heartbreakingly it was a beautiful girl who grew up on Miami Beach near where we lived and she had been out without her inhaler and before her mother could get her to the hospital she died. Really sad. Her sisters had a business where they made jewelry and often they put butterflies on them in her sister's memory as she loved butterlies. Very sad, only takes one time without your inhaler or some other medication some are prescribed.
I'm being serious, take hurricane season seriously and hope and pray that it'll be a quiet season and no Major Hurricane will find it's way to your door, to your home, to your loved ones.
video below...
Andrew was an El Nino Year.
Michael was an El Nino Year.
Florence was an El Nino Year.
Camille was an El Nino Year.
Yes, sometimes they were weaker or waning and other times a hurricane found it's groove in an area where El Nino wasn't a hindrance. Sometimes the water was so warm that hurricanes still formed and made landfall. Every season is different. They set up further West in the Pacific and sometimes they are short lived or are not as strong as models had forecast. Sometimes they are even stronger than they were forecast as in 1997 when a huge El Nino developed fast and furious.
So no I am not in denial. I am watching. I am studying the situation. And, I am hoping that people take the 2026 Hurricane Season seriously as they would normally. Especially as it's possible for a hurricane to form, get into the Gulf and close to the coast where water is the hottest they can intensify fast and make landfall as a Cat 3 or Cat 4 while you weren't paying attention because you thought you had a free pass because El Nino. It only takes one!
Again think of it as you would IF you had asthma and take your inhaler with you always, even if you have been lucky and rarely get an asthma attack. It only takes one asthma attack to kill someone and it only takes one hurricane in an El Nino year to cause you tremendous trauma, destroy your home and if you are lucky you will have hidden in a bathtub with a mattress over you while someone stronger held the bathroom door from flying away as happened to several people I know in Huricane Andrew. Note they don't feel "safer" because El Nino and the moment a Hurricane Watch is posted they are on the first plane out of Dodge or int his case Miami Dade County.
It only takes one asthma attack without your inhaler.
Is Super El Nino Over Hype or Godzilla El Nino Over Hype and Super El Nino Just Right?
This is a good map Jeff Berardelli made! Shows issues few discuss.
While El Nino can shut down some areas....
..other areas such as close in can be open for business.
Also high latitude landfalls close to home...
..along the East Coast and up into Canada!
Florence would be an example.
Michael would be an example.
More on that later...
Also there are new things going on...
...new ways of showing a cone.
Norcross shows how percentages matter!
I like this idea shown below.
Yes, I took some time to watch Bryan Norcross talking on El Nino as well as some general tropical discussion. There has been so much talk on Super El Nino Coming as if it's a promise. And, many see it as an added promise that we don't have to worry on Hurricane Season in the Atlantic. That is wrong. While we are not expecting a hyperactive hurricane season it's hard to say for sure what sort of hurricane season we will have until we are way deeper into July and August. And, as Bryan mentions in this video linked below, Hurricane Andrew that took advantage of a favorable week late in August when the season had been so quiet it was basically dormant. Actually the Hurricane Season of 1992 during an El Nino was playing possum and many bought it hook, line and sinker. Old time Miamians and Cubans watched nervously as they knew signs that sometimes fortell a hurricane would be coming to South Florida.
What were those signs? It was "beastly hot" early on and it never let up. Crazy hot, record breaking heat and our usual afternoon showers were not so usual. There was a double bloom of the mango trees and then old timers worried on that and no I can't explain the scientific details on how that happens but a double bloom often happens in a year with a hurricane. Then there was a third bloom and people were totally "what the hell" and old timers said to them "oh this is not good" while everyone else was dancing the El Nino Dance which they felt meant "no hurricanes" and as we were deep into August before we had a named storm, it seemed that was a definite thing. But then Andrew formed, and fobbled along trying to find traction and often was in danger of being until it found it's sweet spot and well 1992 became a "not so quiet year" quite suddenly! I use long run on sentences sometimes to express the reality of the Hurricane Season is a long season and it evolves in real time with many obstacles and sudden development or rapid intensificaiton known as RI.
It actually takes a lot to get a dangeous busy hurricane season going. And, yet sometimes we have dangerous seasons after promises by the media of a quiet season. I want people to remember that and stay aware and prepared!
Michael and Florence in 2018 left scars across the South when they made landfall in a year that was forecast to be quiet and less active. It was an El Nino year and cooler water temperatures seemed to be promised, but as we all know come hurricane season promises often get broken. You can read more on the reasons why 2018 did not end up being a quieter season as many had been led to believe in May and June.
As always Bryan Norcross is great to listen to and if you are going to listen to discussion on El Nino and how it relates to this Hurricane Season he'd be the one to go to...
Either way, everyone is talking about it online so you can't miss it!
Since Mike and I are friends and I'm a huge fan as well I will go with his 2026 NAMES graphic!
One of these names may be remembered....
..like Andrew or Florence or Michael!
Spent much time last night going over analog years for 2026 by a variety of good meteorologists. I'll talk more on that later this week. What's interesting is many mention totally different years. There seems to be less agreement this year than usual. Stay tuned. Stay prepared. Stay aware!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm