A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Conga Line Across the South... 9 Lows in a Row. High In Control (sort of...) El Nino the Big Player But Off Stage
A whole lot of contenders out there.
A long stretched out wave complex in the Gulf.
3 little waves leaving Africa
singing "look at me!!!"
give us some love...
Put it into the colorful IR
Illuminates what the Water Vapor implies
Oh LOOK!
High latitude African wave too!!
Storms up in Maine going down to the beach....
....about to jump into the ocean
Maybe swim around Cape Cod ??
Let's check out official sources.
So many contenders....
...what is Mother Nature thinking?
9 Lows all dancing around the 2 Highs.
Definitely a Conga Line
But which one has the real stuff?
Do any of them have the real stuff?
Or are they just dancing around...
Ps way too much rain going on in...
....Texas and Louisiana
Oh my goodness.
Reminds me of a song.
First time I actually saw Chorus Line....
...it was from backstage watching.
honest :)
Looks different from the front when all is said and done.
Which one is the one or are none of them making the cut?
Every move that she makes.....
.... one swirl, one spinner
But we don't know yet...
..or maybe it's all illusion and sleight of hand?
Hey Bertha!!!
Where are you???
Stay tuned..........
Oh but a hint can be seen on the wider loop
Checkout out all that moisture oozing around...
...into the Gulf Coast states.
The Culprit here is way out in the Pacific...
...offstage pulling the strings.
Stage Left
Buckle Up!
It's gonna be a crazy Summer...
Sweetest Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
I actually was taught the Samba when I was 4 years old.
I was really cute thinking I was not 4 years old :)
Does the Gulf Blob Get a Yellow Circle? NE Gulf ... NOAA Forecast Maps Hinting Loudly. Hot Temps in Colorado and Montana...High Hot Ridge. To the South, Close In... Maybe. Pay Attention & Have a Good Week!
I always enjoy listening to Mike. Old habits die hard, and some old habits are golden so not letting them go. Listening to Mike talk allows my mind to see possibilities in my head and think on Hurricane History and well all we are talking is possibilities. But, hey there are possibilities. Mike joked he's not talking on anything big, just a bit below 1000 millibars and I giggled and thought "I'll take that!" and that shows you the state of the summer of 2026. Just falling below 1000 MB catches our attention. Especially as it is in a "close in" an area that is favored CLIMO wise and favored in a developing El Nino.
As for El Nino I have to say any time I mention "El Nino" with a year online I get everyone's opinions. Again El Nino forms in real time, some years slower and some faster. Sometimes forecasts are not met and other years they are exceeded even in our wildest expectations. When I post a bit of the blog or an image from the blog, someone invariable screams out "That wasn't an El Nino" but had they read the blog they would know what I was saying is a picture doesn't always tell a thousand words nor the whole story. El Ninos do not start on a dime, there is no light switch...they build, they wane and they slowly fade away. And, yet elements of an El Nino Season are there before the official bulletin from NOAA and they continue to slowly hold a grip on a season even when we officially say "we are not in El Nino anymore" as anyone who has watched a pot boil they know what I mean. You can turn the heat off (especially on a electric range" and the water is still boiling and does so for a while til it settles down some. Nuff said.
Mike oddly just said as if he is reading my mind, and sometimes he does.... "in developing El Nino years the Caribbean is usually cut off" and that is true and more so today as wind shear is strong and it owns the Carib the way SAL owns the open Atlantic. July is not really such an easy time to get a tropical system, though the name Bertha does have some history. And, in the protective cradle of the NE Gulf close in to Florida, Alabama and Mississippi it has a chance.
Water Vapor from Tropical Tidbits
While I am showing Gulf Convection lingering.
I'm showing you here it's lingering... ...to the South of a Huge High.
It's hot and dry. "how hot is it Bobbi?"
76 at sunrise..... ....topping out at 99 degrees.
In Billings, Montana. That's kind of crazy.
I'll add "better there than here"
I need a break in the Carolinas.
Notice I am NOT obsessing yet on the waves.
Though Brian Shields "Mr Weatherman" on YT is...
...and so he should be as Trinidad & Tobago be getting rain. Even though nothing develops they get storms.
Even though we have no named storm...
...the Gulf Blob has been tenacious.
7 Day shows more rain. Note friend near Houston's backyard is flooded. She lost power yesterday. Just because it doesn't have a name..... ....doesn't mean it might not impact you!
Off the coast of the Carolinas.....
....close in along the NE Gulf pay attention is all I'm saying.
While I am looking for tropical possibilities, I'm adding this as a reminder to pay attention. Yesterday's very heavy rains in the Raleigh area and Down East towards the coast ended up with Flash Flood Warnings. Canoers on the Neuse River had to be rescued. Being honest, heavy rains were in the forecast but forecasts in this neck of the woods often are busted, it's worth still paying attention. All week oak trees and tall Carolina Pines have crashed into homes, fallen on backroads in the dark of the night that are only noticed when you crash your car into them. So pay attention tropically and locally weather wise as we in the South are back into our normal rain pattern late in the afternoon. Be it on the river in a canoe or out by the ocean when thunder suddenly roars, go indoors! Pay attention!
While there is no yellow circle yet.
This is the next best map to look at..... Official NOAA forecast.
Oh look!
Shows a Low.
Kind of closed, almost closed LOW In the NE Gulf, close in.
So pay attention.
Have a great day.
We are in the high 80s in the Carolinas today.
And yet my kids in Colorado are forecast to hit 97.
Any time we have an inbalance in a pattern.... ..Mother Nature is prone to try to shake that pattern.
Texas Blob. High's Grip on the South is Gone! Rain... Moisture in the Forecast! A Look Back at a Different Kind of Hurricane Season with an El Nino That Took It's Time to Show Up... Unlike 2026. Yet But for Dorian & Lorenzo Most Storms were Short, Sweet & Forgettable. But I Always Remember Imelda!
Let's start with the rain forecast.
Where there's much rain... pressures can lower.
Watching close in always in El Nino years.
Not expecting development....but....
I would not rule it out as impossible.
It's basically the ONLY area to watch.
NHC says nothing for 7 days.
They are the official line.
Also rain in the South means cooler temps.
A real bonus and crops need the rain.
The South produces much produce.
Especially when we get rain...
Texas Blobs.
I can't remember what year it was and I'll definitely look into it this weekend, but we had blobs in the Gulf near Texas constantly as if they'd become a permanent fixture. Sometimes when there are blobs close in over time the blob or an upper level low or trough can spin up tropical action close in. Again every year is different. This is early July. In early July 2019 looked like it would be a dead, quiet hurricane season due to an expected El Nino. That El Nino and the one we have today, is granted very different and yet still we see patterns. Blobs and Upper Level Lows swirling about. Deep tropics dead for now. Oh wait! As I am writing in real time it was 2019. That seems crazy as normally only one name we think of when it comes to 2019 and that was Dorian.
Ya know the year 2019 was an odd, interesting year in the Atlantic Basin and yet most people only remember Dorian. There was much discussion about a much awaited El Nino and preseason forecasts expected it to be a quiet year mostly. Articles such as "stick a fork in it" as seen above were way off when all was said and done. 2019 began similar to 2026 as there was an early A storm and then nothing for a long time. Then suddenly we saw formation fast in areas far from where the slow building El Nino that had yet to really appear was doing it's thing.
Oh look! Dorian, who had that one on their Bingo card that year? No one as you can see from the article referenced above. And, other than Lorenzo and Dorian most of the busy activity was made up of short lived, minimal storms that often formed close in or far away but everywhere but the Caribbean. El Nino DID stick a fork into the Caribbean as you can see below.
Lots of close in development.
Storms closer to Africa than Florida and Texas.
Short lived Imelda that formed from an ULL.
Short, small and yet caused much flooding.
Especially as the Gulf had blobs often ...
....and they were a bit waterlogged.
Cute little Imelda...
...big trunk like an elephant.
I talked a blue streak on Twitter and online in weather groups insisting that the ULL that was in the area and had been interacting some with other areas and was gulping too much convection and I thought it could develop and move North towards landfall. I was right. I read a water vapor loop well and understand these systems and that year had a lot of these sort of systems and Upper Level Lows. Imelda was short lived and forgettable unless you were one of the families who lost 7 people and or part of the 5 Million Dollar damage across multiple states.
While 2026 looks to be a historic El Nino and to add in there are other factors that may make development harder and I'm not just talking El Nino. But again we have time and time will tell. Do we get to the H storm? 2019 had the capricious Humberto. And, again as El Nino actually got it's act together it had Lorenzo way out there in the Atlantic.
Most of the ACE was from these 2 storms.
Dorian and Lorenzo.
This year is a whole different El Nino and yet there are similarities to think on. No, I am not saying we will have a close in Dorian, I am saying we have to watch close in for development along the E Coast and in the Gulf. Look how many named storms, most of them very weak, formed close in and far from the Caribbean. And, the Lorenzo types that were far out in the East Atlantic! But we could have a close in Dorian like hurricane, so we should always be prepared in every single as it really does only take one.
Never take your eyes off the tropics.
Never. Stop. Chasing.
Enjoy life, have a good weekend!
I can't promise we won't get to the dreaded I storm.
And I can't promise we will.
Every El Nino is different.
Every hurricane season is different.
Every person is different.
Some people are golden and memorable...
... like Donna and Dorian not Imelda.
The state of the Hurricane Season today July 10th!
Lots of moisture close in....
...is SAL really moving into the Gulf?
I always follow SAL patterns....
...with respect to future possible Storm tracks.
Note sometimes SAL forecasts are a bust.
In hindsight we know for sure what happened.
I would not call 2026 a Wipe Out.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
mostly weather on X
elsewhere depends on my mood
;)
I had a friend years back who loved this song when played on Oldie Goldie channels. He'd bang on whatever was nearby as if he was a drummer in the band on stage. He was fun to watch. So here's to him... time will tell how many names we have in 2026, if we get to the dreaded I storm ;)
Blobs & Convection in Atlantic Today. BAVI Stealing the Show in Pacific! El Nino & Hurricane Season. July Climbs the Mtn to August.... Do Models Dream?
Note the end is wedged in the beginning here today.
Areas of blobs and current convection
Hard to find inspiration in early July when SAL is in charge and El Nino is building it's case for being one for the history books. I don't like to "hype" as much as tell it like it is and in truth there are possibilities but they are low chances barely worth mentioning. Then again, the pattern has shifted and we are no longer in the dead heat of the Heat Dome in the Carolinas back to a normal Carolina Summer pattern meaning it's not so horrible at night with a light breeze ... perfect for going out and having a drink on a rooftop bar. In the morning it's a drop moderate but warms up all day fast and by late afternoon the clouds build up and they let loose with some thunder and lightning and awesome drenching rains. Ps...every Summer trip to the beach ends with late day thunderheads chasing the masses away.
When a pattern flips, that's a sign. But what is it really a sign of ???
Shows we are moving up the graphic for Hurricane Season, where little peaks of historic action happen on their way to moving on up the range of possibilities into August. Generally in an El Nino Season August is the start of action. SAL generally .... wanes and stronger waves are able to maintain motion and their existence to take advantage of any weak chance that something could form and at least get a yellow circle going. Note the red moves UP fast as if waves need to be mountain climbers!!
As for El Nino... ...a good primer in why El Nino impacts our Hurricane Season with info vs hype.
Click on that as it's good discussion.
With good graphics.
Mike LIVE this morning.... ...always easier typing listening to Mike talk.
Old habit...............
Mike explaining why not to pay too much attn... ....to this graphic.
Models have been wonky.... ..over excited over next to nothing.
Does show areas likely to develop.... ....if they could.
Another screenshot from Mike & X
As I said the rains have returned!
Sadly it's hot hot hot out West.
Colorado to Montana... crazy heat.
And BAVI is the star of the show today.
Reed Timmer out there chasing.
Intensifying, an eye you can fall into...
IF you zoom in there.... ...you can see the eye wall stacked.
That's the main story today.
That and the pattern flip....
Last but not least.
There's a BLOB in the BOC
Hard to ignore.
Mike sees blobs everywhere...
...really lol but seriously
We have all been watching it quietly.
In any normal year...
...this would be a candidate for a name.
Low level fame, weak BOC system.
Or maybe get into the Gulf
Check that blob out...bright red!
Also a nice low lat wave train.
And a candidate for Subtropical thoughts....
...I really don't want to dream on subtropicals.
But in an El Nino Summer you got Slim Pickens!
Suddenly Slim looks cute lol....
Models are machines.
They are told to "fetch" a hurricane.
They dream... Yes models dream... Bobbi does not.
Does NOAA dream?
Maybe so...
Okay I may dream on snow and cold fronts.
But check out those little red Ls
Especially in the Gulf close in...
Mid July
Far down the tropical road still.
Or off the coast of Carolina.
Areas from the Gulf to the Cape OBX
on both sides of Florida need watching
in El Nino years
Have a great day!!
Sweet Dreams
BobbiStorm
Looking back.... ..as someone who lived in LA in the 80s
I think ppl were more crazy then than the 60s 80s I'm sure more fun than the 60s...
I'd say what was everyone on ... ..but I kind of know ;)
I was high on LA with dreams of Lemon Meringue Pie
BAVI all the Rage and Raging Towards Landfall. Where Did All The Chasers Go? July 4th Weekend Offline Watching Fire Works! Atlantic Quietish.... Low Lat Wave Train Keeps on Training ... Weather Pattern in the NC Broken So Are Changes in the Wind?
On the other side of the world, far from the Fifa World Cup the weather world is watching Typhoon BAVI and to be fair iCyclone is on the way as is Reed Timmer and a whole slew of chasers who are not waiting around for the Atlantic to wake up and wish to chase cyclonic history! BAVI center stage on Tropical Tidbits!
In the Atlantic Ocean.
Go straight to the source!
There's a low latitude wave train....
....cruising towards Trinidad
Ah look the Big Kahuna.....
...my weather artist and song of the day pal!
@daBuh played with my ink blot.
Couldn't tell if it was a hunting dog pointing..
...or
...the eyes of Dr. T. J. Eckleburg of Gatsby fame!
My friend is right....
...fated love always wins at the box office.
Just some literary references ....
...from my English degree :)
In my own ocean.....
...chasing hearts of potential!
Close in is good to watch.....
...or Upper Level Lows that go Subtropical.
Who knows.
Won't lie this made me smile
With dreams of Winter in July.
I took a long July 4th vacation and tried to ignore the triple digit heat in the Carolinas. 105 sounds like a Radio Station I used to listen to not the daily temperatures in July in Raleigh and I do NOT want to talk about the "feels like" I am so over "feels like 150 degrees in Hell" weather reports. I sort of ignored BAVI to the chagrin of some of my close weather friends. Sorry, it's on the other side of the world and not raining on me. I needed rain. I got rain last night. I had hours of rain and I had lighting and thunder for a good six hours from start til finish, or until I fell asleep listening to the rain and grumbling, distant thunder as the storm left us and rolled out to sea. I will say the pattern has been broken. The storm complex that blew through the East Coast from NC to VA to DC and up into NY & NJ charged aross the area lighting up the sky, causing flooding and BJ's roof collapse that put their flooded store all over the media. The grip of the strong High over the South is losing it's grip and there's a shift in the triple digit heat as it's on it's way to Billings, Montana! I'm glad to see it go though my friend in Bozeman may get what she wished for as the snow season usually there is long and summer is short.
That's not France!
That's DC.
250 Birthday!
I spent July 4th relaxing and in the evening watched the longest, firework show I remember the Country Club giving and stared at my phone smiling as my kids in South Florida sent me fireworks from Hard Rock's famous guitar and some resort up the coast. My son Levi sent me pics my own Biltmore Hotel on the lawn watching fireworks with castles in the air made by drones and that made me smile knowing my grandchildren are enjoying the good life back home in Coral Gables on the lawn of the beautiful Biltmore. Not the one in North Carolina ;)
Watched the Tall Ships my mother loved so ..... sail through the harbor in New York City. My brother kept texting me like a terrier that learned how to text telling me to "put on MACYS" and "OMG did you see the Tall Ships" and "when are they going to show the fireworks already" and then "OMG" lol all night. He gets excited about things like this you know. I had some incredible BBQ Pulled Brisket my husband made while sipping an ice-cold beer as I sat on the floor in the living room in front of the big screen cross legged like a li'l kid watching the fireworks that finally went off in DC close to Midnight. It was a hot, meaningful July 4th and one for the record books both weather wise and history wise. Seeing as how I love weather and history, it was a perfect combination.
I ignored the news, I ignored the nonstop hype on the high record heat and I ignored BAVI's evolution into a historic storm and time will tell where it goes next. Sometimes you just need to get away, off the flowing social media highway, the nonstop feed of hype and agenda on the "NEWS" and hunker down through the triple digit heat and do your own thing and then sit back and watch the fireworks in the hot, steamy night on July 4th in Raleigh. Next month up is August and then comes Remember September and as El Nino seasons usually ends early any real activity should come in August and early September. But as always time will tell.
Yup, I sat on the floor singing along to Sweet Caroline as if I was at a Red Sox game and well for those few minutes life couldn't get much better :)
If you look closely at the two huge Highs shown by the 2 pretty Hs and the monsoon trof, it looks like the High Pressure in the Atlantic has a cheshire grin. Perhaps it knows something. Perhaps it's just annoying and thinks it'll live forever. It won't. But for now it's totally in charge of the Atlantic and it's July so its partner in crime the Saharan Dust is sucking all the moisture out of the atmopshere.
Atlantic Quiet. EPAC Heating Up. Heat is the Word of the Summer of 2026. Heat Wave. Heat Dome. Baked Alaska Sounds Good Bout Now...
I'm going to be honest and short here as there is not much to say. This is a tale of two basins today and the Atlantic is quiet, and the EPAC is not. Normally this is the time for the EPAC as it's season begins earlier and there is more to work with in most years. More moisture specifically. Shear at the entrance to the Carib that you can see in that SW to NE angled line of clouds near the coast of South America will shut down most anything that tries to form. SAL is in charge of the Atlantic and July is it's month to party! The EPAC also gets an extra boost from our building El Nino! So this is a good time to enjoy July 4th or go on a cruise as you should luck out and avoid named storms. That doesn't mean something can not try and spin up close in as that is possible. The rainfall signature for Florida and parts of the South is intense over the next week. But the chance of seeing Bertha is very low.
'
Rain would be wonderful Rain would be really wonderful in the Carolinas and other places that have been baking in the triple digit heat. Worth remembering a strong Heat Wave kills more people ....ironically.......than most Hurricanes. Heat takes it's toll, it's a silent killer. It kills crops as well and impacts the prices and availability of basic produce at the market. We don't name Heat Waves, though this one will be remembered as July 4th Heat Wave of 2026.
I'm not going to post on how hot it is as to be honest, I don't want to hear about it and I can't imagine you want to hear about it either. The Heat is exhausting enough I don't want to open up emails and look at posts with everyone trying their hand at making AI pics in dark, hot shades of red, crimson and the favorite fire orange. We all know it's hot. It's July. El Nino is prone to heat ridges and heat domes and triple digit temperatures in places that usually are happy to have warm summer beach weather. This year even the beaches are hot.
So I'll get back to y'all when I have something interesting about the tropics to discuss. As always at times such as these keep an eye on the backdoor as areas closer in and more likely to develop. It's early July, it's wait and watch time in the Atlantic Basin.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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