A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, February 20, 2026
The Groundhog Told the Truth!! Fake Spring Will Go Poof Soon Nuff. Winter Southbound Again!
Funny thing happened on the way to making a "to do list" for the day...
I had YouTube running in the background and suddenly Mike showed up and I saw a pic that said Margaritaville and I swear I thought it was a Menu. I thought "oh they changed the menu??" then I realized it was Mike's Weather Page talking on his cruises that he does and realized he was talking weather. I took another sip of my Nespresso woke up a drop more some and realized rarely does his video pop up during the off-season. One minute I'm listening to a music video that my son produced a few years back and the next minute Mike is talking. Wondering if the algorithm changed or if this was a message from the powers that be in the weather world. Either way it was delightful listening to Mike talk, something I should have a degree in but not going there.
So this was the answer to the question I posed yesterday while I was sitting in bed wearing my summer wardrobe with the windows wide open and that was "Is this Fake Spring" or really Spring. I mean I knew the answer. Who would argue with a Groundhog? I've been to this rodeo before and I know that especially in the Carolinas we get these warm breezes from the South and everyone thinks it's Spring and then Mother Nature whips the football away and tosses us a few more deep diving cold fronts.
And there it is...
Check out those isobars.
Vertical with cold air flowing South.
Check that snow storm out! Check out that Coastal Low. I do think that's the way the 2026 Hurricane Season may go... lots of Coastal Lows offshore and way less in the Caribbean going on. Time will tell.
My gosh that snow is tantalizingly close, but Virginia always steals the snow here in North Carolina.
So just saying hello and goodbye for now ...
Don't put your parka or hoodie back in the closet, because the Polar Express still has some runs to make before it switches up it's travel plans!!
Sweet whatever dreams you want weather wise......or menu wise!!
BobbiStorm
Ps......Mike does so love old school Southern Rock and Roll so here's a song he mentioned this morning on his Daily Brew! Haven't heard it in years and not one on my playlist though I have danced to it many times. I may be southbound soon too, just haven't figured it out yet time wise as I have a busy dance card between now and Mid April!
1915 Hurricane New Orleans.... What Can We Learn from that Disaster? What Can We Learn From Camille in 1969? The Summer of Love Wasn't So Loving in 1969 in Pass Christian & Bay St. Louis....
While working on some family history I read that the 1915 New Orleans Hurricane played a part in it as it caused much destruction to a home in the Garden District that my family was connected to via family and business relationships. It seems the hurricane ripped the beautiful cupola off the roof and it needed heavy repairs. What surprised me most was that I don't remember studying the 1915 New Orleans Hurricane. I probably spent too much time looking at the track of the 1915 Galveston Hurricane comparing it with the 1900 Storm and well that's how memory works as what resonates connects. I've always been obsessed with the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. I've obsessed on the Last Island Hurricane for years for a multitude of reasons. How did I miss the New Orleans Hurricane in 1915?
1969 was an El Nino year. A few weak tropical storms in the Carib and lots of Fish storms in the Atlantic. There's even some wild "loopers" that traced circles on their way somewhere else. Had Camille not formed and developed and smashed into the beautiful towns along the Gulf forever making Pass Christian and Bay St Louis synonymous with the name Camille few might remember the 1969 Hurricane Season. I will add if Andrew had not formed and exploded before aiming for Miami Florida we may not have remembered much about 1992 and blamed it on El Nino.
1969 may have been the Summer of Love in far away Woodstock NY, but as rock and roll blared from the speakers in a muddy field far away to the South .... Mississippi and Louisiana only saw death and destruction from one of the worst Atlantic Hurricanes in an El Nino Year. Yes, the truth is the 1969 Hurricane Season would have been fairly forgettable if not for the Queen of hurricanes Camille!
It only takes one.......
A good lesson as this coming Hurricane Season is expected to be an El Nino. For many in Hurricane Country when they hear predictions of an El Nino that term conjures up an "easy season" or "quiet season" but I suggest y'all don't start celebrating! Some of our worst hurricanes have made landfall in El Nino years. Perhaps it's a pent up energy sort of thing. Either way El Nino Hurricane Seasons do not have a guarantee you will be hurricane free!
Just some things to think on as you begin to read articles on the coming, building El Nino that is expected to form this 2026 Hurricane Season.
Tuesday Morning..... Warm UP on the E Coast for a Bit... See Saw Pattern. The West Gets Weather!
1st thing in the morning...... ......I check the Mimic. Every. Single. Day.
We are supposedly getting a warm flow in the Carolinas, so I decided to look at Mimic and yet this large feature from the Caribbean* to Europe stole my attention. What a river in the atmosphere and yet *it didn't start in the Caribbean. We really need to look back towards the EPAC
We can also see another up in the Pacific.
A smaller one near Baja California
This is that time of year when the temperature here can be in the 20s in the evening and the high 60s in the daytime flirting with the 70 mark, before diving back down again into the high 30s. Seesaw weather in parts of the country. And, yet in Upstate NY where the highs try to touch the 40 degree mark and the lows are in the teens and snow is supposed to fall twice more in the next ten days again they are snow deep in Winter still. My daughter lives near Monsey and the plowed walkway to the street is epic winter art. My daughter wanted Winter to leave a month ago, yet up in NY winter leaving wishes have a long way to go......
Weather is about where you live, what your priorities are and it's always deeply personal. Go to a synagogue or a church and you will hear several older women wearing heavy sweaters inside complaining it's too cold while others nearby are wondering why it's so warm. If you know you know...
Florida, according to Mike....
...is celebrating!
Back to the 80s!
I do so love 80s music...
But so not ready for prime time 80s yet.
I'm not even ready for 70s yet.
Maybe the 60s...
Mike IS the Florida Guy ;)
I've become the Carolina Girl.
Debating on wanting Spring.
I like it cold.
Then "inside thoughts"
"Wait.....magnolias will bloom...."
"Dogwood!"
Maybe, just not yet.
Everyone is playing with graphics.
Not just Mike.
Liked this one below.
I saw that a while after I saw the Mimic.
Wondered who else noticed that..
The Mimic was so inspiring...
..I decided to blog.
That's a well done graphic.
Just enough to explain vs detract.
Anyway weather and seasons collide soon.
Dreams of Spring Training were fulfilled today.
Valentines Day is Saturday......!!
Oh look what collides with Valentines Day...
Zoom Zoom Zoom Zoom!
I actually love Daytona!
Wild, the cars sound like the wind...
...in a hurricane.
Then............
Fat Tuesday on the 17th.
More on that later this week...
Winter Dreams are not just about a golf course opening, especially in the Carolinas where people really play golf most of the year, but about holidays and there's a holiday buffet this next week you can choose from ..... pick your holiday and may your winter dreams come true....whatever they are!
113 Days Til 2026 Hurricane Season Cold Records Being Broken This Winter in the Carolinas and Florida.... Weather History
As a Hurricane Historian... a Weather Historian every fact about a current trend is up for grabs in the research game that goes on in the Off Season. It's 113 days til the start of the 2026 Hurricane Season officially using the June 1st start so this post on X caught my attention. I had to double check, but I knew one year was a crazy busy year and another year was slow and I wasn't sure on the third year. So let's take a quick look in a short blog on Super Bowl Sunday.
Understand that it's been very cold in Raleigh, where we have had multiple events with frozen precipitation and we have piles of snow that's been plowed into piles of snow that look like mini mountains in every large parking lot around. No snow on the ground here, though I do see my neighbor has some in shaded spots in his yard and that's because it's been way below freezing at night. Normally this part of the South waits for the snow to melt and it usually does within a few days. But this has been a real Winter for NC and the "first week of February ranks among the top 15 coldest first weeks of February going back through our historical records" according to the National Weather Service in Raleigh.
1887 I knew was a busy year.
Busy close in = more landfalls.
Many ships had to put into port in Key West that year.
Many on their way to Galveston or Mobile
Or New Orleans.
My family lived in Key West then on Whitehead Street.
I've searched through old records at the library on Fleming.
1887 came after the hyperbusy 1886 Hurricane Season.
Many coastal cruisers ...signs of fronts & curves out to sea.
19 systems, not bad for before satellite imagery!
1903 Hurricane Season.
7 Hurricanes!
Not all that strong but still...
2 USA landfalls.
One went straight to Mexico...
...tho it's referred to as a the Jamaica Hurricane.
That may be relevant but hope not....
No satellite imagery...
Love Weather Maps...
August Cane smashed into the Islands
Beryl like yet stayed low.
High Pressure to the North.
1903 Florida Hurricane
aka other names.
Inchulva was a Steamship...
..that went down.
The high was not kind to Florida ...
..while not strong it was impactful.
This is a hurricane I have researched after reading personal reports from the local "historians" who kept logs, journals and multiple references in local newspapers. It made landfall near Ft Lauderdale and crossed the state damaging the Sugarcane Crops and sliced up into the Panhandle before curving away with an early front. My ancestors lived in the Tampa Bay area, after relocating from Key West and again have seen it written about in Tampa Hurricane History. In the Panhandle it hit crops again and in truth back in the day it didn't have to be a Cat 3 to destroy the crops and Agriculture was the First Florida Land Boom.
Heavy damages along the coast...
...curving in around NJ
I thought it was worth highlighting the 1903 Hurricane as it was a year less talked about than the wild 1880s and the 1910 Hurricane Season that was crazy quiet and yet when you have a Category 5 Hurricane make landfall in October it's remembered forever especially after it looped and was infamous in Cuba.
This hurricane season was brought to you as the reminder of "never trust a quiet hurricane season until it's over" and in this case it was not over until October. Understand this hurricane, shown below, hit Cuba twice after stalling, looping and creating even more misery over Eastern Cuba before moving off with a front towards SW Florida and slowly snaking it's away across Florida before hugging the coastline becoming a huge danger to ships at sea across a wide area. Never trust a quiet season until it's over. Again it's impact in Key West is legendary and while my family did not live there then, they had business interests and were there often. As always any hurricane in the Florida Straits between Florida and Cuba often impacts Key West and it did indeed.
Watched so many sunrises there with a cup of cafecito from the nearby Mini Mart sitting on the seawall.
So we have 2 busy years and 1 quiet year.
All 3 years Florida was impacted, hit and/or was close enough to cause damages.
Just an entry in my blog that is really my Weather Diary.
Adding this to my Weather Diary online so I can go back and look into this more at another time.
It's been a very cold Winter in Raleigh and while I love a real Winter...it's done a real job on my health in that I have been dealing with headaches from the change of pressure often and more so the heat has been on more and it's a delicate dance between when I use the humidifier and when I do not need it and I'm on medication for a sinus infection and headache medication so I decided to write long today on this as it's both therapeutic and a curiosity that as we get closer to hurricane season we will all look back on the current odd pattern this winter that robbed parts of the West used to being buried in snow tho to be fair few in Montana are complaining and dumped Arctic air all the way down to South Florida and the Caribbean.
And we will also obsess all through March and April about El Nino vs La Nina and the signs that we are seeing and on and on and on it'll go until we begin to see areas that may develop into an early tropical system before the actual start date of June 1st........or not.
Raining. Winter Storm Advisory in Carolinas. Rain to Snow to Maybe Freezing Rain. Whoah That's a Carolina Winter Sub.... Lots of Layers. Light Impacts Expected..............
oh look snow flakes in the morning.......
........then sunny!
Writing this blog this afternoon as I feel the current Winter System (Storm) moving through should be taken seriously. Obviously, without the panic drama of the storm that models showed would drop huge amounts of snow on Raleigh and it under performed due to a dry slot and left many bewildered on the inconsistencies of forecasting a winter storm in this region. As far as I could see when I was out this afternoon, they did not brine the roads; they aren't expecting more than a light or strong dusting and to be fair it's raining before the turnover to snow.
Allan Huffman Map from earlier today on X
Where I live I am in the top part of B.
Dusting to 1 inch. Freezing rain possible.
I'm close enough to the A area to pay attention to it.
These systems can be tricky...
rain moves in from the South
Cold air moving down.
Snow up to the North
Where they meet and when tells the story.
Most sources insisted it would begin raining around 6 or 7 PM. The rain moved in early around 4 PM. The cold weather also moved in early, temperatures dropped fast from a Spring like 45 degrees and I didn't even put the hoodie around me as I walked over to Barnes and Noble, leaving it around my waist because I'm lazy and I was pretending it felt like Spring. It no longer feels like Spring, it's really cold outside. That bone chilling, nasty cold is settling back into my bones. I shut the windows that I had open a bit and the heat is back on.
It's hard to pin down the specifics of a winter storm in the Carolinas. You don't know what you don't know until you know. That's not a cop out but an explanation from living here over 16 years. That's why we had a dry spot that denied us of 8 or 10 inches, leaving us with 1-3 inches in the Raleigh area.
Many times a storm that was supposed to deliver a light dusting over produced, especially when the cold air was in place, the ground is still covered in areas by piles of snow and it's followed several other winter storms ........many times one of those storms with light impacts can impact an area more than everyone expected.
I'm not saying I expect this system to overproduce various types of P-types but I am saying it could in some area and people should pay close attention to their weather sources in the morning. Currently schools are on a delayed start as it is in the forecast for Ice to be a problem on the roads from the rain, then wintry mix and then freezing rain providing a "light glaze" but I would not be surprised in some areas if that is changed to not melting by 9 AM. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get to above freezing until closer to Noon. Long run on sentence much like this winter here......
So I'd pencil in your commitments tomorrow and wait and see what actually happens. You know when we had a pencil and erased something we wanted to change. Something just is bugging me that it's wishcasting to think there will be no problems from this system considering how cold the ground is and how it's expected to snow into the morning (daytime) and we could have freezing rain. I've never seen a neck of the woods that used the word "could" so much as is used in Raleigh. But then again the phrase "might could" is an old saying here. So let me say, this system might could surprise some with more than they expected so don't assume there won't be changes made to the forecast. And, if not and it's just bone chilling damp and cold, be happy this was not a Carolina Snow Storm that did not deliver more than expected. I had a best friend when young who would not use pens, she was a writer and loved pencils. Sometimes I take out a pencil, smell it ...smile and use it for about 30 seconds. Conceptually there's something good about the concept, while it did erase you can always see a bit of what was there and the reminder that you changed your mind. Mother Nature changes her mind often this year.
That's my thinking on this storm. Then again I'm leaving the emergency supplies in the same spot in case we lose power (God Forbid) until probably March 1st.
Polar Vortex Merry Go Round. Denver & Billings Has Spring Like Weather While Miamians FREEZE & NC Getting More Snow Tomorrow.
Brrr!! Must be February!!
Watching weather people in North Carolina talking on the incoming system that could maybe, possibly bring a little more snow to our area. They are using words comically carefully so as not to panic a part of the population tired of Winter and praying for Spring. Then there's the hyping types who are screaming "3rd Week in a Row SNOW!" for the snow lovers wishing for more snow. It's February, some years we get snow, most years we do not. And it's not just North Carolina as areas in North Georgia are trying to dry out and dealing with very slow snow melt. I've been told when the snow melts you hit the layer of hard ice that was sleet on the bottom and it's not pretty and ABC Liquor Stores in Raleigh selling lots of Jack Daniels!
Those polka dot clouds offshore in the Atlantic...
...are cold, cold weather clouds.
There's a slot of dry air and blue skies...
...but behind it IS another system.
Yesterday we were all blue skies.
Gray, white like clouds moving in today...
It'll all really come down to timing.
Time of day the "precipitation" falls to the ground.
Some will be rain that'll help melt the snow.
Some may be snow
"OH NO!!"
or
"YAY!"
Lately we are less divided here on politics...
..than our love or hate for snow.
Maps are so simple.
That shade of blue is "mixed precipitation"
Maybe Freezing Rain ....
...or wintry mix.
We really didn't need a rodent ....
...to tell us Winter is here to stay for a while.
(sorry a groundhog is a rodent, that's true)
Meanwhile in Colorado they are basking in 60s...
Highs of 60s for Denver are like 80s for them.
Miami getting highs in the 50s is as if it was 30s.
And people in Denver way happier right now..
..than my family in Miami.
So snow or dry slot again?
Freezing Rain?
@SCweather_wx on X
Mitch West Weather on YouTube from SC.
South Florida problems......
Not even a 75 in sight let alone 80 degrees in Miami.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
