Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Many Questions on PTC 1 Forecats to Make Landfall As a TS - ATL Yellow Area Has Some Potential. New Yellow Circle ... Circling the PTC1 Area. 20/20 on Both.

 Staring with Wind Probs for PTC

Shows cities that could be impacted.
Directly impacted from a TS...
Cone below 

Cone, impacts far beyond the cone.
Especially with a messy storm.
Yellow and Blue warnings to the N of the Cone.

I will be honest and say that the Tropical Discussion from the NHC regarding PTC 1 described a pitiful mess, yet a reminder that this messy system has potential for developing into a tropical storm at some point before landfall. The center is not well defined, it has limited convection in the necessary places and the strongest convection associated with it is way over East of the Yucatan. Motion of the best guess center is North at 6 MPH. There are many questions regarding the reality of what is going on in this system, recon will go in later today and hopefully nail down some hard facts that will make the future forecasts easier to digest. It isn't even classifiable by the Dvorak, which says a lot and I put the sat image down below for you.

So what could happen? 

It pulls together, hooks left and comes in near the Tex Mex border, delivering heavy tropical rain at landfall and to the North of landfall along the beautiful Texas coastline and it's beautiful barrier islands. Heavy rain for Houston is still a concern, but is it from the flow or directly connected to the messy system that we aren't 100% sure where it is... but we can see it on sat imagery down below.

Or center reforms over stronger convection or just further to the North changing the trajectory of the Cone. 

Note the big pink, purple blob to the East or SE.
The broad, hard to define center.
Yet it does have an nice envelope ... 
Looks like it's sticking it's tongue out at us.

This is the Dvorak loop.
Not much of a pulse.

Longtime readers of this blog or those who follow me on Twitter know I look at the Dvorak often to see how strong a system is and if it's intensifying. A developing system looks much like the big blob in the bottom right corner (that NHC pointed out had the deepest convection) so you can see here by comparison how weak the middle of the there is..or isn't. 

One thing to remember is that the BOC/GOM has a history of fast development, close in near landfall often surprising a small town with a bigger, more intense storm than they expected from it's out of town reviews. 

Moving on................the NHC has 2 areas highlighted in yellow and both have 20% chances of forming; long chances but chances never the less. Yes, there's a chance....two actually.  The yellow X is far out still, yet there's a little feature scooting fast towards the East steadily that's not the yellow X but it's curious and hard to ignore. Is it a leading, trail scout checking out the Atlantic and reporting back to the Yellow X? Who knows, it's been a strange year, but it's hard to ignore it. IF something forms it could come in near St. Marys to Tybee Island (maybe) or it curves further to the North and visits the Boardwalk in Myrtle Beach. It's a real maybe, vs PTC 1 that's a definite maybe.

In truth this is what you get in June. Ever go to the first Pre-Season game for your favorite team and they look awesome, then they lose all their first games once the season starts. Kind of like watching models and getting excited and then a real center forms and they are nowhere near as impressive as the GFS showed them ten days ago. Though...the GFS did see a very fast moving little ball of energy moving fast, much like this little shadowy area is doing. The GFS often points the way, how we translate it or believe the details is on us. The pattern in the atmopshere is what the GFS is sniffing out long range. It's kind of set  up to fail, as it is using Xray Vision Telescopes to see into the future 384 hours away.

Nuff said. Let's take a look at the Atlantic Tropical Basin in the most colorful imagery.

From left to right.
Dark reds show up...however they are on the EPAC side of the Great Central American Gyre. Oops
         Models did consistently show "energy" bouncing around jaggedly from basin to basin.
The vertical yellow trough which is launching convection up into Texas as we speak, moving far to the N.
Between the Vertical "trough" we see nothing but kind of two little red dots. That's our PTC1.
The big red blob (looks a bit like a penguin) is the area of strongest convection "connected" to PTC1.
NE of that in the dark blue is that little shadow feature zooming towards Florida, curious but nothing more.

Looks like a blue comet this morning.
I find it interesting.
Previously I called the GFS storm a "meteor" moving fast.
Sometimes the model gets it right... we read it wrong.

Lead lil blob on left.
Darker blob is out yellow X
And, its kind of spinning better today.
On the Mimic.

To the right on the big image above you see a deep V neck (my mind) and that's where the X officially is, behind the comet looking feature above. 

Special points to red blob bottom right of large pic.
Seen above better.
That's a tropical wave that's lifting N of SA
Made it past the shear and is going where I wonder.
Well shear is "tickling" it....
....flares up way better than PTC
Far bottom right a potent new wave rolls off Africa.

That's it. As detailed as I can get. BOC systems are fun to watch out of the corner of my eye, but watching them form in real time (especially from a CAG) is like watching paint dry. Quasi systems off the East Coast often manifest into a name and no fame and the name never gets retired. Waves off of Africa will eventually get stronger, the Atlantic will be juicier with less SAL and they will be viable. We can see that week by week they are climbing higher, getting into position like a plane that leaves the gate on it's way to it's runway but is not yet ready to take off. 

I'll update later today if something more definitive is delivered from the NHC. And, to be very honest it is not easy to be the NHC in the current pattern that does have potential but is chaotic, unreliable and not the best environment for a system to form in even if the water is hot. Tropical development needs more than HOT water, as we have seen in many seasons when high expectations were dashed and dumped in the dumpster.  What happens in real time is the most important thing ...tho we love to read discussion and forecasts for how the season may unfold.

Besos BobbiStorm
Didn't sleep much last night.
Around 5 AM I woke up to this tune.

It's on my favorite JB CD.

Monday, June 17, 2024

NHC Puts Out a Cone for PTC 1 That Should Become Alberto (In theory) while other Invest Shows Signs of Life in ATL...

Potential Tropical Cyclone #1

Salient points here are currently it has a poorly defined center at best, and movement in the short term may be erratic until it finds it's groove. Watches are up so places in the path of this potential cyclone can make preparations. Moisture associated with the system and the greater CAG will move towards the Central Coast of GOM as well as Texas cities far from it's forecast landfall in Mexico. Often systems such a as this can ramp up fast and come together just before landfall, so while it's not very threatening now not ignore the potential for trouble with localized flooding at landfall and possibly deeper inland. Stay tuned, this is a heads up we have something coming together that may make landfall in 48 hours and we need to get the word out now while people have time to prepare. Coordinates below. Current movement NNW but expected to hang a left fast and hook in towards the Mexican coast.

20.3N  93.2W moving NNW

Wes is my on air Met in NC

Forecasted strength and points is below.

Wind Probs

 PTC 1 


Thoughts on the Set Up

One question for me is doesn't the "center" of what could become Alberto move back towards the EPAC or does the rain move up into the Rio Grande River Valley? While we are looking at heavy rains to the North of landfall, being shunted by the strong flow North to the Mississippi River Valley we could also have a flooding scenario in parts of Mexico. And, it's also possible that the leftover moisture, left behind from this Central American Gyre AKA CAG could produce another area to watch in the Gulf of Mexico. Lots to watch and a sort of dry run for when we begin development of tropical waves in a few weeks. 

The CAG is not pretty.
Well, maybe like a modern art pinwheel?
Focus on the center of the BOC... 

It is possible something else spins up.
From moisture left behind in GOM.
As what could be Alberto scoots fast to landfall.

In the ATL...
.... some consolidation of color.
And a nice signature on Earthnull.
Just my thoughts.
Could be a Georgia Storm.
How rare would that be?
We always think...
Florida or Carolinas.
Everyone forgets about poor Georgia.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
will Update with info as needed.
If there's anything definitive to say.

Named Storm Forming in the BOC? Alberto Is That You?? Beryl a Good Name for a Fast Forming Storm Off SE Coast....IF It Forms. Recon Going into BOC System That Is Forming. Will Update Later Today ...

Regarding Texas and the Central American Gyre be aware that formation finally happens quickly, while the process of watching for what seems like weeks in one area begins to bore us and or make us restless, but slowly something happens. Why? There's been something all along, it's just been on the EPAC side slithering back and forth attempting to jump into the BOC (on the left side) and when all the aspects click into place and it's good and ready "poof" some closed system will be cradled in the curve of the Yuctan and it's a short trip inland. Once in a while some wrench is thrown into the set up, but usually a little, small center forms and hooks left. 

Viewing this region as one area vs two helps. That's hard to do the way the NHC has eternally set up it's forecast zones, so going to just the ATL side you only see half the story. Going to the EPAC side of the NHC site you will see a little yellow X with zero percent chances of development. See above. Below we go to the ATL side of the page that most are familiar with and what to we see??? We see a horse of a different color, a seahorse of course.

NHC used more words in this tropical update there early morning 2 AM update than I usually do ..that tells you something. Below is the 8 AM when they finally put it out, they must be writing as it's coming out fairly late for them.

3 things to note from the older one above that I like but get missed in Memes on Twitter
1. They mention tropical storm not just tropical depression.
2. They use the "regardless" term that I can always hear with attitude in my head for some reason.
3. They direct you to the High Seas Forecast. This is a hint it's a complicated, messy set up.

possible tropical cyclone
that infers a name.
Alberto in theory.

NHC seems ready to go once it's actually forms and is visible in the ATL side and as the EPAC side is at zero currently, we are go for lift off soon. No one ever said it would be pretty, it's not some westbound, vigorous tropical wave it's a push me/pull me form of formation that you will see in real time soon nuff on satellite imagery.

Salient points from the 8 AM update.
"low pressure is forming" current tense, in the process....this IS happening. 
I'm going to leave this open today to come back and update it as a Cone may pop up before we see the spin and swirl around an exact center as this could impact land in the short term vs the long term. thing doesn't always have to do with another and especially this time of year when the CAG can produce different areas to watch and this has happened often in the past. A little low goes somewhere and another part of the remaining moisture shield takes off with the general flow Northward to slam some city along the GOM with obscene amounts of rain. One way or another rain will be the factor and that can lead to flooding if it moves towards a populated area that was built in a bayou. It could also move in further to the South across a beautiful part of Texas that is less populated but would be extremely vulnerable with many barrier islands. Note we aren't talking a hurricane storm surge, we are talking about stubborn rain that trains and doesn't want to go anywhere soon and why would it ...that's a beautiful part of the Texas coastline.

Thirdly, recon is going in today and they will try and obtain the specific information that the satellite imagery and models are having problems smoking out.

70% in the 7 day
70% in the 2 day

NHC is putting out Jaws soundtrack music here.
I'd imagine it gets an Invest before a name, and still waiting on the Invest to go up.

Long awaited 8 AM is here.
Gale Warnings ARE up.
Hurricane Hunters Going IN.... threatening rains could happen. 
70% this could be named TODAY
or tomorrow.
We have a red X
as close to a done deal as it gets.

Showing in real time the birth of a system.
Alberto is that you?
Race for the A name today.

10% in 2 day - 30% in 7 day.
NHC puts an X on the nose of ?? Beryl??
See the little curvature to the left of the X.
See the old decaying frontal boundary to the NE of it.
This is classic formation zone for small TD or TS

So now let's go look at the ATL now, up close and personal. 

Mimic often shows where it goes.
Looks like a pimple on a nose.
Interplay in the zone below...
..shows where it could go.

We'll circle back to this later today.
I will do an update.
Facts below

30% chance for a tropical system to spawn and move towards land later this week. 
Everything depends on where and when it sets up and whether it moves W or WNW. 
While this seems annoying, it's as basic as it gets. ATL system sets up from an old dying frontal boundary that has sat too long over warm, tropical waters with a high to the North. The High and every undulation of the high, every wiggle of it's hips, every expansion of it's huge dirigible shape that looks as if it's trying to find a place to land and anchor. Lord knows that High must be tired, I know I'm tired of it and it

It probably doesn't like being called "The Death Ridge" but social media demands a name and since we don't name Highs social media finds one. Watch the various undulations, again, of the High Pressure. Long range forecast for this weekend shows rain in Wilmington, Myrtle Beach, etc. Horrific heat and then a cooling off and rain. Could this be the rain? Stay tuned. 

Where is that center you ask?
Most likely below.

The "center" that is trying to form is right there.
The light lavender curvy looking bump.
East of the red crap.

As one takes over... it's all in timing.
Models? GFS... goes to NC.
On this last run.... just one run.

I'll update later.

On a personal note I'm dealing with typical seasonal frustrations. I hate the heat, prefer the cooler weather and like wind, lots of wind ...obviously. I have two funerals to go today, probably the later one however it'll be hot. I have a sweet friend, much older but youthful in spirit who lost her husband a while back (sweet man) they were a cute lovely couple and her 57 year old son suddenly died of a heart attack this weekend. The earlier one I don't know and probably won't go but will see, my husband was friends with the family for years when his kids were young, old man in his 80s died in his sleep. Not trying to be morbid, just staying real here with y'all cause real is important as I'm not a Bot ya know ...

Stay tuned...........planes going in ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
Ps forgive any typos I'll correct later.
Eyes/allergies bothering me.
Hate the heat, heats up all the allergens.

One way or the other...
..we will get a named storm soon.

Sunday, June 16, 2024

2 Areas Trying to Get the Name Alberto... and/or Beryl. Does BOC Get a Storm But Why Does the Rain Go to Texas??? Hmmn Hasn't Formed Yet. Models Haven't Nailed It Down Yet. And, Does Yellow Area Off FL Form & Make Landfall?


Gonna lead with this thought....
...before I put up the NHC image for the 7 day.

60% chance in 7 days of something in BOC*
30% something off FL coast forms in 7 day.
Again nothing there - hasn't formed yet.

The problem with early June systems in the GOM/BOC is that often a small center can form and hook into Mexico and displaced rain far to the North where the flow sets up an atmospheric river into an area far from the center of possibly Alberto. I say possibly, as it may not form so quick and the area off the Florida coast may slide in with a name first by way of a very, small, closed Low that gets a name and some fame for making landfall anywhere from Georgia to SFL with the current concern being Jax to the Cape... Daytona perhaps. Hard to say, it hasn't formed yet, and to complicate matters there are a multitude of squiggly circle areas that could become the center if and when it forms. Will the real center stand up? As for the Orange X over the Yucatan remember it's over the Yucatan and still a crap shoot as to what happens but I'll stand by the thought that there has been a possible area near the Yucatan for days so timing here is important. 

What is most important today is where the rain goes and who gets the deluge of rain this coming week. South Florida would like to be exempt from this one and as it shows above the coast of GOM shows high rain totals. That's the 7 day projected rain totals, yet most models keep the "center" far to the South so again we have the same set up South Florida endured but aimed around the Houston area that again like S FL has geographic issues and it was built in a Bayou and bayou areas are prone to tremendously, difficult flooding episodes and you don't need it to be a Major Hurricane to get that set up going.  There's a lil bitty purple near Florida and that could be from our lil bitty low that tries to form. I can't make jokes without reminding you all that previous models took this lil closed Low (TD perhaps) straight across N Florida into the GOM and developed it some and slid into home base (second landfall)  along the coastal cities of the Gulf of Mexico. That has happened before then a huge high oversteps it's boundaries and propells a system West into said GOM and no not going to name any offenders but Katrina formed off the SFL coast from a mix up of two systems and moved into GOM and yet remember that was late AUGUST not June too soon but it feels like July. 

Point is ... apparently nothing is totally off the table this coming week or two. 

Our multiple day grid is playing it coy.
It's not ready to bite with anyone scenario.

Our Tropical Musical Artist Dabuh below.

Again every model changes on every run.
Sometimes they seem to agree.
Then they agree to disagree again.

There's no there there yet.

My thoughts:

I've mentioned this online and people always ask what I mean ... 
When there's a High above ... a huge "death ridge" high as some call it....
Sometimes a low pressure area forms to the South of it and the high forces it to make it's move.

There is often some game changer set up that's an oddball like set up and the set up produces an early named June storm or Tropical Depression. 

We can watch tropical waves from Africa for days, weeks and we can watch Central American Gyre for days or weeks and nothing seems to form even though the water is hot and the shear relatively low. And, then some set up in the atmosphereic flow pops up and forces something to form fast and be slung shot somewhere towards landfall. It's easier to tell you in September where a tropical wave off of Africa will end up down to a 200 mile area on the East Coast or GOM as it's rolling over Dakar yet way harder to figure out what is going to happen off the coast of Florida this coming Wednesday.

Why could this verify?
1. Note the huge high to the North.
2. If anything tries to form (brick red color)  it's blocked from going anyway but West.
3. There's lots of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico... lows go towards lows.
4. Rain may be the name of the game even if we have an Alberto officially.

If you live in Houston or any Texas beach city (or inland near that city) prepare for the random possibility you will be getting rain. As for whatever does or doesn't hit Florida or Georgia... not talking wild hurricane but you may get a real tropical surprise. 

Have a good day. Keep putting together a Hurricane Kit. Enjoy your father or memories of your father. We all had fathers had some point, learn to forgive and forget bad memories and know that we all get both good and bad genes and many of us have some great genes from our father. Many of us have had an Uncle who was more like a father or grandfather or a stepfather and some were lucky to learn something important from all of them. Do what you love today....... that's what I got to say.

2024 promises to be a problematic hurricane season with tricky scenarios and hurricanes that may have a need to make landfall and we can't ignore that so do what you got to do. By the way "do what you gotta do" was one of my father's favorite sayings. That's probably how I ended up in North Carolina ... I decided to do what I got to do at the time and hoped it worked out and go figure it did; been in NC for 15 years now, more if you add in the year I went back and forth nonstop and now I go back and forth nonstop to Miami to touch "home base" and see the kids, grandkids and friends who are like family.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
You can worry on Alberto tomorrow........

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps I'll say one thing here and that's that I love this time of year where I can talk to my friends endlessly on the possibilities .... and there's always a possibility living in NC where I can go down to the coast and feel the named storm up close and personal if everything aligns just right.

So much said with a few posts .... talking with "Content Wx Guy" is like a class in meteorology if you pay attention to the maps and the words, words and maps make a great combination.

What people need to learn is this...'s all about the set up.
When a center forms somewhere.... follows the set up in the atmosphere.
That's why we wait for a center to form.

June brings tropical discussion more than named storms.
And, I do love tropical discussion.

In the tropics it's all about the set up.
like the base vs the treble 

Ps check out her new song.
Cute. Just doesn't fit the blog today!

Friday, June 14, 2024

A Look Back at the Week (Flooding Rains Florida) And A Look Ahead Down the Tropical Road. Happy Father's Day Weekend. Beware of the Extreme Heat in Many Cities!

Pics at top.

Words at the bottom...


Yellow 20%
Orange 50% in 7 day...

As for the whole tropical basin...
..areas to watch and keep an eye on.

South FL issues below.

Regarding the Florida Flooding.
It's not totally over.
Rob from Crown Weather Was on Top of It!

While it's gonna get better...
...still more rain.
And, rain needs to drain.

Competitive Swirls in 2 Basins.
EPAC mixing it up with BOC in ways.

This new wave reaching higher.
Latitiudinal Higher!

Beginning with the African tropical wave as it's worth starting with as the point I'm making here is the current waves coming off Africa are looking like late July, vs late June. This is too soon for waves to be this moist and juicy closer to 10 N than they have been. Add in the extreme heat in the waters surrounding many places that are prone to get early season development and this is a concern and while we are far from September, this is definitely more like late July and things tend to pop in that time period.

And, more so they are neatly spaced and coming off regularly enough for us to watch the area I wouldn't really talk about seriously for another month of so ...tho....we can't help but watch the waves.

Ultimate dreamer.

I'll be honest, I like to watch the GFS who doens't need a fast cheap thrill sometimes weather wise, especially when mid 90s are on the menu in the Carolinas as if it's late July.... much like the tropical wave train is too high, too early in time.

Rhymes are cute to use and remember, however they are the average rule of thumb, and there is nothing average about 2024. We have had severe flooding in multiple places around the globe from Miami to Dubai and we have had gorilla hail everywhere. Gotta tell you, hail happens but no not really this frequently do you have "gorilla hail" the term made famous this year for sure.

It's a wild ride sort of year weather wise and often a flip between an El Nino to a La Nina is the most dangerous sort of year weatherwise. In 1900 prior to the Galveston Hurricane there was rivers of hail so heavy in areas to the North of there that looked to Isaac Cline the famous meteorologist that went to check it out ... his reports said it looked like snow. Perhaps they had Gorilla Hail that in 1900 in Texas too?

So keep your eye on the Gulf of Mexico, what the GFS does show (as well as a few other models) a surge of tropical moisture moving North into that part of the Gulf of Mexico to the WEST of a strong High Pressure area trying hard to hold tight. There's crazy high pressure to the far North that is expected to bring 100 degree like heat to NY, NJ... New Englander Patriots will know what it's like as it feels like that often at Hard Rock Stadium when they have to play the Fins  in August in Miami.

And, a serious warning for Father's Day. Do not push it in the heat. Change your plans, stay inside and do not feel you have to do outdoor activities in "feels like 105" or it may take a horrible toll on your life. People die from the heat more than they do from the cold or storms; it attacks our body in ways too numerous to go into especially as Daddy ages....  Heat Waves kill and in June people are not yet used to it nor have they acclimated themselves to "oh my gosh it's so hot this summer" so it's a horrible slap in the face to anyone who cannot deal with the heat medically speaking. Just don't. Human being's ability to adapt is what has kept us going.... those that did not adapt died off. Truth. 

As for the Flooding in South Florida ...what can I say that I have not said already? 

My brother is driving around North Miami trying to get to a house to do an appraisal. He'd like to get close enough but he's circling around blocks. One block has water up near the houses and the block behind it has very little standing water anywhere. Remember TWC and everyone else shows the worst case, dramatic imagery but the reality is it's a patchwork quilt and every few streets it changes.

He and I also talked on the reality that early development was in areas where the land was higher. I'd say "duh" but it's not easy for many newcomers to understand. Yes, all of WPB down through Miami may look similar, but it's not. IF you are looking for a new home as you flee New York or New Jersey, and you see oaks and pine trees growing naturally... know that area is naturally a bit higher and less of low land which floods easily as it was more swampy at one time. Miami doesn't really have hills (a few in the Grove or along the River...or an old Indian Mound . . . ) but it has areas that are higher vs lower. Anyone who has been to the Greynold's Park area knows there's higher land where oaks and pines grow, than out in West Broward that was Sawgrass and Swamp. In general North Miami Beach has areas with higher ground, other areas lower ground (especially Miami Gardens Drive) ... and North Miami tends to have lower land. 

These are Dade County Pine trees.
Picture from 1920s.
If you see them growing naturally.
Know the land is higher.
Better for allergies.
They will fall in a hurricane tho... 100 mph winds usually.

Seriously it is what it is... 

Life is like that and you take your chances and make decisions based on your own needs. You wanna get away from the cold, frozen North then..........sure go by a cute little house in Miami and the odds are you may live in that house for 18 years and never get a horrible, horrific hurricane. Or you may move to Miami and be there barely one year and Hurricane Irma comes along, breaks tiles off your roof and knocks down all the cute little fruit trees that were growing on your property that made it looks so tropical!

It's a crap shoot. 

Live in Raleigh two years and you may never see a blizzard let alone snow accumulating before heading to Jacksonville Florida and the next year they get 8 feet of snow on the street where you lived. 

Meet a cute guy, fall in love, think he's awesome and then for odd reasons you break up and go your own way and never know what happened to him. Years later you run into him at Disneyland with your respective families and he's cute, happy and you're thrilled for him. Or he stalks you all over the Internet and you spend way too much time with the blinds shut and wearing disguises when you go out to the grocery store. Just saying... 

Every place on the globe has some horrible, natural disaster that can rearrange your neighborhood.

Choose wisely.

Hurricanes are one of the few natural disasters that you be warned about in advance with time to either board up far from storm surge or hit the road with others after boarding up your home as best you can. And, know that one of the deaths attributed to in Hurricane Andrew was a small child who lived far to the North of Florida where a crazy band of distant rain slammed an area far from landfall and a tall pine snapped or some other heavy oak tree lost a branch that fell into the house where the small child was sleeping and died. I've tried to forget the exact details, it was heartbreaking, but it happens. Last year while waiting for Idalia to finally make landfall, Vidalia Georgia to the North was getting flooding rains and age old oak trees in Tallahassee dropped branches like they were pecans ready to eat and enjoy.  

Many call Twisters "Finger of God" though I prefer to think of them as "Finger of the Devil" but it's true they are unpredictable and there's not always time to get out of the way. Don't even get me started on Earthquakes as I lived in California a long time.

Hurricane Preparation is the name of the game in June. If you think the flooding was bad in South Florida this weekend from a tropical disturbance that slid slowly through the area with training rains... imagine what those waters outside your house would be like with wind driven waves on top of them, driving them higher into your house while the violent winds are tearing at your roof and windows trying to get into your hiding place where you hunkered down. 

Have a good weekend.

Next week we will nail down whether Texas gets a deluge of rain or a named storm, or if the Tex/Mex region gets a BOC storm with a name. And, if the wave that looks kick ass today can survive the trek westbound or WNW bound to get to a friendlier spot.

And, if shear relaxes anywhere in the tropical basin... watch out!

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Ps Today is a headache day so not even proofing sorry if there are any mistakes.