A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
PTC One Forecast By NHC to Be TS Arthur ... Cone...Discussion and Thoughts on Track & Deadly Dangers ... Flooding Dangers High As it's Been Raining along the Coast there for Days.
Details above.
PTC One
Official Cone.
Going to preface all this with the reminder that this could become a Tropical Depression or even become TS Arthur, though mostly we are still in the realm of potential vs actuality. Either way, the impacts will be the same and those being torrential rain leading to dangerous flooding issues in some places, high winds and the danger of severe weather. When we say dangerous I mean they could turn deadly. Hopefully not, but the area geographically it is traversing are filled with bayous, swamps and dangers not apparent to newbies or tourists. It's hard to explain how in this neck of the world flooding can happen fast and put someone who is unaware of that into life threatening dangers. Even for locals, dangers occur and accidents happen. I'd say this is definitely "tropical" in that it's origin is one part remnants of Cristina from the EPAC along with other ingredients and it is in the tropics and it is behaving in a tropical way bu it has not developed a real, solid center. Should and when this occurs it will be TD1 or TS Arthur. Note that the advisory discussion below shows it attaining tropical storm starus in 24 hours. This is the perfect example of why we have the Potential Cyclone category as storms often form close in along the coastline here and can intensify fast and the normal time parameters do not apply here vs a long tracking tropical wave with potential far out in the distant Atlantic.
Updated 5 PM - No Name Storm Now Invest 90L - 50% in 7 Day & 40% in 2 Day - Flooding a Big Concern. Carolina Hurricanes Win Big in an El Nino Year. Something to Think On?
Invest 90L
We now have Spaghetti Models!
Starting here with the orange X that marks the spot that the NHC is using as their starting point. The models need a place to begin, and that X is basically it. There's a 50% chance in the 7 day. Models are coming out, planes are scheduled to go in on Wednesday and we will see what we will see. Regardless of a name, this is a huge flooding scenario and could be deadly, destructive and disastrous even as a No Name Storm or Invest or even as Tropical Depression. Texas has been to this rodeo before and they don't laugh off this scenario just because it's not a hurricane.
That's a wide area of concern....
...possible formation zone.
This will impact many with or without a name.
Due to the curvature of the Texas Coast....
...this could briefly get out over water.
Before moving across the South..
Carolinas would love some rain ....
drought has killed plants, crops & streams be evaporating
You can see there's a spin there.
Looking at Dvorak since it's an Invest.
Trying to find the heart of the matter....
...do Invests have a heart?
An early look at what is under the hood.
Especially as this is a rain bomb in ways.
Let's look at the Water Vapor Loop.
You can see clearly it's got something going on.
It definitely got our attention!
A stalled out front...
..will funnel the moisture as you can see above.
From Zoom Earth you can see the purple dot.
Invest 90L You can see rain is already falling.
IF this develops.
If it develops a center ....
It will deliver rain to areas already swamped.
Well literally as there are swampy areas in play.
Bayous in play amp up the flooding.
As for models ........there is model for every possible track you can imagine. The EURO has been bullish. AI models go both ways, some stronger and some less strong. Already there is a model that sees a Hurricane. I would pull that back a bit, but let's say we could get Tropical Storm Arthur. We could get a TD. But the big problem is we get flooding across a wide area where it's currently raining, before torrential tropical rain arrives and lingers.
EURO says it gets out over the water.
Currently EURO says that.
It's been fairly consistent tho...
For now know it's an Invest.
For now know NHC is on top of it.
NWS is on top of it.
Make sure people in that area...
..are also on top of it!
I'll update in the morning...
If you didn't read already, keep reading.
***8 AM Monday ***
Just to get this a li'l out of my system.
The Carolina WON...
...the Stanley Cup!
in an El Nino Year!
So.... wouldn't count Canes out.
Sports wise & weather wise
Gotta love the Hurricane Flag there :)
20% in the 2 day.
30% now in the 7 day.
Could emerge over water....
...IF it does.... it'll get a name.
If it doesn't can still get fame.
This region is used to No Name Storms.
Add in cities built in bayous....
...tend to flood badly.
Places like Houston...
just to name one.
The truth is this week's weather is not about a hurricane in the Atlantic or even a Tropical Storm, but tropical, torrential rains tracking over the same area stuck between a stalled front and a huge High Pressure that keeps the rain stuck over parts of the Deep South. I typed "stuck" twice on purpose. Can Carolina get in on this rainfall? Time will tell it's a very strong High Pressure. And, in Mississippi and other nearby areas it's already raining. So you get rain on top of rain on top of more rain. And, often sadly, these set ups tend to overproduce!
This is the rainfall signature.
The footprint of where flooding rains can happen.
These two posts tell the tale.
Josh is already getting sexy tropical rain.
Anyone who has lived in Key West...
...knows this sound.
"pounding rain" on a tin roof at night.
Wild sound really.
Leaves you with one big smile!
Next look at that High.
Well the Highs...
The 4 Highs....
....making up a blocking high pressure.
And the 3 Ls
You can see where the front is...
...you can see where the high pressure is below..
Just to be clear showing it here.
Saharan Dust and the HUGE HIGH
everything is dry.
So dry that Miami has a HEAT advisory.
Not the basketball kind.
My brother sent me an emergency alert...
..warning of HEAT Advisory in Miami.
I told him: "thank you for participating"
It has to be really bad....
..for Miami to put up a warning.
As for the ITCZ....
it is so suppressed!!
Compressed.
African waves may....
... get into the EPAC
Westbound and down...
And that's the concerns on weather today and tomorrow and most of this week. Can Arthur get named from this mess of rain? Only if it develops a low pressure areas and currently it's murky and hard to find one but the NHC is doing their job. The NWS is doing it's job. Everyone should pay close attention to Heat Alerts and Flood Warnings of all kinds.
Update Friday 8PM -BOC Yellow Area 20% Chances for it to Re-Emerge Over the NW Gulf... Maybe. Huge Bulked Up Wave Coming Off of Africa... SAL Waiting for It! Mystery Building in the Gulf... Models Vs Reality.
Can never tell for sure with these things.
Close to the coast.
In the cradle of the BOC
Would love to see recon in there.
It's not anything strong ...
...but close to land and nebulous in ways.
Does the rain from "it" move into the Deep South?
That's the 7 day rainfall forecast.
8 PM Friday Evening....
20% chances. Will see.
I'll be back Saturday Night
next update
***keep reading it's all still relevant***
10% still.
The graphic's shape has changed.
I could see an Invest coming.. maybe.
I could show the current El Nino graphic ....
...but today this is more important.
Temperatures in the BOC today...
...will, can support development.
Will know soon nuff...
..but will it die out over Mexico
Or
Will the moisture slip away....
...and try to connect to the front.
????
Models from the Spaghetti Model Man!
Mike telling it like it is...
Lots of IFs in the discussion for this interesting graphic. A weak area could try and form before making landfall and then re-emerge over the NW Gulf on TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY and interact with a frontal boundary, but there's lots of IFs still. So the scenario for the front has not evaporated as yesterday's short lived sunshower did in the 100 degree heat, that did I will say drop us down into the low 90s after the raindrops fell briefly before moving on.
I have so many wild thoughts running through my head, but trying to stay on track here this morning. Know tho that the sun woke me up way too early. Even before it rose in the sky as it just showed it's presence near the horizon it felt like a blast of bright light and it was already 80 degrees. This is about as tropical as it gets in the Carolinas, more like back "home" in Miami when we start the day at 80 in June.
Starting off with the reality of CLIMO and what history teaches us about long shots such as Cristina. Rarely does a named storm actually cross the finish line in that part of the world. Everyone was watching to see Cristina do it and yet the closer she got the faster she fell apart. That does not mean the rain did not fall and yet there is a reason few named storms make a landfall. There are always exceptions to the rule, such as Beryl barreling through the Islands when the shear disappeared!
Again this is one region.
They are connected.
Storms near the Yucatan...
..get their energy from down below.
Energy being moisture...
....that feeds them like a gas line.
An electrical current.
Zoom in and you will see why the Bay of Campeche is so favorable this time of year. Be it a forecast crazy, busy bumper crop year or a possibly record breaking El Nino CLIMO tries hard to get its way. There's a reason crappy, messy blobs pull together just before they reach the coast in that region and get a name or designation. So if it became a TD I would not be surprised. It has a ways to go though...
So much to look at here and yet there's really not much to say. Wild, huge wave coming off of Africa. Obviously I can say June too soon and it's gonna run into a wall of Saharan Dust. And, yet you can see the lead wave, riding low in the water has hints of vibrant convection. What will this impatient wave look like in two days time I wonder. Really bulked up getting ready to depart Africa.
Note most the storms...
...align vertically here.
For now...
The front is on the move.
ITCZ horizontally.
Some models......hint at...whisper at our area of interest moving West and then the moisture gets jerked fast to to the ENE or NE up into other stronger atmospheric elements. Some take the misture up into areas that could really use the moisture. Where and when do long shots play out is the question. And, the scenario for moisture being slung backwards into the Gulf and beyond has happened before and will again but will it be this June?
Speaking of El Nino that comes on in the summer, gains momentum in the Fall and reaches towards a crescendo as we approach the holidays. El Nino literally referred to the Christ Chld meaning Christmas Time when this feature was made known before the time of modeling and satellite imagery. The ancient sailors knew it was there as their fish were not where they expected them to be and when the fish were not where they were supposed to be they didn't make money and it impacted their own daily life. Now we say EL NINO and try and find some super hyped up label for it such as Godzilla El Nino. The graphic above from the CSU updated forecast released yesterday shows this graphic. The further West the El Nino spreads, the stronger it becomes. This is the graphic to remember when looking at those graphics with the deep reds over the building El Nino speading West.
So stay tuned.
June is not too soon this year for weak, meager development and that is what we usually see in June in the BOC. El Nino years tend to have surprises and storms take strange tracks and yet for the most part they stay weak. One usually busts through to Major status and sometimes it's in the Atlantic at a high latitude and sometimes it's close in to the beaches of fthe Gulf. So stay prepared, stay aware and have an awesome weekend!
BOC Area Being Watched 10% in the 2-7 Day Time Frame. Will 2026 El Nino Rival 1997? Time Will Tell. A Look at Analog Years for 2026. Yes El Nino Years.
Current area being watched by the NHC... 10% in the 2 to 7 day period. Image above from Zoom Earth
Will let it simmer some and see what happens.
Today I'm discussing Analog years for 2026
From the newly updated CSU report
1957 1965 1987 1997 2009 2015
Yesterday the updated CSU forecast report came out with lots of information and a new set of analog years for this current Hurricane Season. Below are the years mentioned above. All were El Nino years. So let's take a look.
1957 Hurricane Season.
Generally a quiet hurricane season.
Usually some exception...
Early in the season Audrey formed in the BOC
It made landfall in Texas
It was a wave that moved into the BOC.
Carrie was a long tracker....
...staying at a high latitude.
Similar in ways to Erika in 1997
More on that later.
1965 was a busier season.
Lots of loopy tracks.
Most memorable was Betsy.
Struggled to develop and pull it together.
I've spent much time studying Betsy. Spent lots of time at the NHC Library doing research.
A typical double hitter.
Florida and Louisiana Betsy was mean.....
Then there was Carol a long tracker.
1987 was a fairly forgettable year.
Also lots of scribble scrabble tracks.
Below average El Nino Year
Still 10 people died.
90 Million dollars damage.
A lackluster Floyd did the Florida Keys & Miami
Another "dead" season more or less.
El Nino was famous ... it had nicknames.
"Mother of All El Ninos"
What can I say about 1997? My personal thoughts are censored, but always remembered. I'm fairly sure many trackers and forecasters were on some sort of meds. Similar tracks tracing along the East coast. Danny formed the hard way from an Upper Level Low near the coastline, near landafall and then was renamed upon making it to the Atlantic Ocean after doing parts of the Appalachian Trail. Erika did that big C shape out in the distant Atlantic that we have seen in these analog years. El Nino aside, there was still death, destruction and divorce. Nine people died from Danny.
Erika a long tracker.
2009 gave most people a rest...
After 2004, 2005, 2006 we needed one.
Many high latitude, long trackers.
That one storm that slips through into the Gulf
Bill a long tracking C shaped El Nino storm.
Bill threatened New England... but curved away.
It was a big wave maker.
2 people died in Maine.
1 in Florida.
Grace was an artist........
2015 Hurricane Season
Are you seeing patterns here?
I know I am...
2015 is most remembered for Joaquin.
A looper and long tracker.
Joaquin was quite the storm.
Formed from an ULL
It's dip down by the Bahamas..
...slow movement
Huge size.
Major Hurricane
Fire hose into Carolinas
Charleston had flooding...
Okracoke was evacuated
155 MPH
34 people died
The El Faro went down... ...the crew lost at sea.
So what have we really learned?
Storms still form in El Nino years, though most are meaningless and unforgettable. Many form close in along the East Coast and trace the coastline out to sea. Many loop and do odd tracks and refuse to die traveling back across the Atlantic at a high latitude. Many form from Upper Level Lows and while most are weak, some can become Major Hurricanes even in El Nino years. But........usually they are not a threat to land, but not always. People still die and there is still destruction. Hopefully not this year but we learn from history.
There will be less hurricanes. There will be less Major Hurricanes. Hope no Major Hurricane comes near you and that you are aware and prepared should one do so. Happens.
El Nino is so far officially a thing but still in it's infancy. Currently it has been said that we are twinning 1997 and if so that will be horrific for Austrailia and regions nearby as that El Nino went so far West it was responsible for drought, death and destruction reminding people El Nino is no hero, though he does lessen the chance off destructive hurricanes making landfall and yet sometimes they do. The famine was truly devastating. So hopefully 2026 will not be a strong as 1997 was and yet many say it might be. Time will tell, it always does.
From Google above....
I'll discuss the CSU report more tomorrow. But I thought it was good to look back at the analog years. Makes it easier for me as I can easily find info in my online diary that some off you choose to read.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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