11 AM Advisory Updated. Major 120 MPH Cat 3 Hurricane Isaias Heads Towards Landfall Today along the Gulf Coastline ... Aiming At Florida Panhandle, Alabama & Inland into GA & the Carolinas with Flooding Dangers.

 

About as close as it gets!

Cat 3 - 120 MPH

Let me take you back to 1992...living on Miami Beach staring at TWC watching the loop of Category 5 Hurricane Andrew coming closer and closer with nothing to deflect it away nor weaken it. A new advisory came in. There was great excitement at TWC as John Hope announced the "good news" that Andrew was no longer a Category 5 Hurricane as the windspeed had gone down 5 MPH. You could see everyone was happy, sort of relieved some. I was not relieved some. I was not happy. It was still a high end Category 4. 

I mean really??? Really???  Yeah, that happened and so did Andrew bringing total devastation at the coast, and places far inland in Homestead. A mean, lean fighting machine. Yes, it was upgraded back to a Cat 5 afterwards in post analysis, but I knew it was just as deadly as a strong Cat 4.  But my point is when you have a Major Hurricane that has traveled far to get to your beautiful town....5 MPH doesn't really matter as gusts in a storm are always way stronger than actual sustained winds. Just the nature of the beast. Okay, you may feel "relieved" for about five seconds for each of those five miles per hour but you know it's coming. It's just offshore. It's on the way. Rain bands have begun to pass through your area and the sounds of the rain carried by the advancing hurricane winds are hitting your roof like bullets and people caught out in it run for cover. It's the Hurricane's calling card......the reminder for any who believe it won't make landfall, that it IS making landfall. The rains have begun, there is no turning back. I hope and pray anyone reading this from the area near landfall have totally prepared, gone to higher ground or are hunkered down in a safe spot. 

This is no longer about IF

It's about WHERE and WHEN

and how strong it'll be by you.

Lastly I don't don't want to beat a dead horse, but I don't want people to die, because they thought they'd be safe as they don't live near the coast but far inland. They have elevation up in the beautiful mountains and foothills near a gentle, every flowing river. Life is good. The hurricane is making landfall down by the coat and moving up far from where they live to the Eaast of the Cone. Wrong. The Cone will verify, though I'm fairly sure it'll be pulled a bit more to the East as the NHC discussion has already hinted at that and the AI models and others are pulling a drop to the East. But, the rain will go where the rain will go carried by sometimes unpredictable flow of the rain and where the heaviest storms set up. Any place near a river or near an area that recently has had problems with flooding (such as up in the mountains of North Georgia) really needs to pay attention and know trouble could happen fast. I hope and pray I am wrong. But this is one of the biggest dangers of a landfalling strong, hurricane whether it's Cat 3 or Cat 2 at landfall really it's a mute point. You can't stop the storm surge nor can you stop the rain from falling.

Key Messages.

Also there are tornado concerns.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Takes you to this page.

Keep weather alerts on...

..in case of a Tornado 

Google AI is excellent

(tho it can be wrong so ..

..double check always with NHC

and your local NWS

Current satellite image with lightning.

Note that mean feeder band.

The tail... way to the East of the eye.

Rains will fall to the East of Cone also.

Flash Flooding concerns.

That's it.

Close up above

...note how far East warnings go

on either side of the Cone.

Wider view of where it has been..

...and where it's going.

Again strong rain will be E of the Cone.

Again it's been carrying water, rain

storm surge from the BOC

It may surprise people...

hope not.

I'll update at 5 PM

Video I made earlier to explain the dangers

I went long on earlier in the blog.

This is impacting Florida.

So playing this beautiful song.

Seminole Wind... indeed.

***

Major Hurricane Isaias

Cat 3 - 120 MPH

Bigger pic below from Jim's post on X

Cone below.

Again Cone follows the center.

Cone follows strong center WIND.

Note the flooding dangers. 

The rain, the flooding. 

Hopefully not, possibly tornadoes.

Hope not but stay aware.

10 AM still valid before update.

You know what's worse than someone hyping a storm or a hurricane season? Someone telling you not to worry ....there's nothing to worry about "because El Nino" and there won't be a hurricanes. Never believe ever there is no chance in a hurricane "because Super El Nino" and what does a strong El Nino usually produce? A strong Major Hurricane. All that latent energy, bubbling hot waters in the Gulf not tapped by frequent hurricanes with upwelling. It's a dangerous set up and sadly this year it's here and it's real. And, some cities, some towns, some beaches will be pummeled by the dangerous storm surge of Isaias. And, even though the winds will come down as they always do once inland that storm surge will keep going, pushing inward finding every bay, cove and river and when water rises that's when the most deaths occur. That's what I worry on. I worry on people taking Isaias seriously after being told it wouldn't be that strong and that if it does become a hurricane it'll probably weaken as it approaches landfall. 

It may weaken some between now and landfall, but that is not a given. And when the NHC says "weaken" they are talking on the wind speed and yet the storm surge and danger of flooding rains will go on and on. It has traveled the expanse of the Gulf from the cradle of the BOC all the way to the furthest point as it makes it's move towards landfall ... most likely on the Florida side of the Alabama/Florida line. People wonder on Pensacola or Destin or name a beach town on the beautiful Florida Panhandle and know that East of that town will get the strongest storm surge, the highest winds. And, yet the whole area from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle will get strong storms in bands moving inland. And, Tally as we call it in Florida is prone to tornadoes that spin up inside the bands.

I'll update after the 11 AM. I just wanted to touch base first and go a bit long on the lesson of Isaias a Major Cat 3 Hurricane headed towards landfall soon in an El Nino Year. I was not hyping when I said that could happen early in the year, Major Hurricanes happen....I was concerned people wouldn't stay prepared and alert. The stores sold out immediately on storm supplies as people stockpile less hurricane supplies and food when they are told "don't worry, big El Nino, nothing gonna develop" and I'll add old time Floridians know... it's the newbies who may be taken by surprise. I hope not.

Stay tuned.

Prepare.

Shows the EYE.

Perfect presentation considering everything..

Deep tropical moisture.

From EPAC 

UP
into the Gulf

Headed Deep inland.

I beg you...take this seriously.

The name Isaias could be retired this time.

Lastly INLAND up in North Georgia where the land rises up towards the mountains, Tennessee and into the Carolinas (SC & NC) hope and pray there is no repeat of Helene in W NC nor Tennessse!

Back soon.

Life happens.

In during a Major Hurricane.

My daughter's Goldendoodle...

...vivising from Miami.

Wants my attention....

Song and full update at 11 AM.

Updated 11 PM ISAIAS 105 MPH - Strong Cat 2 Hurricane Approaching Landfall. Will It Be Cat 3? NHC Forecasts a Major Cane! Wouldn't Bet Against It. Pressure Dropping.

Pressure dropping.
Winds rising.

Moving NE at 14 MPH

Satellite imagery shows...
...it's picking up speed.

Smells landfall....

Interactive cone.

Shows track line.

Compare and contrast tomorrow.

Pensacola Bay... 
or wobbles to the right.
or can it pull due North.

Mobile Bay gets lucky often.

Check out the imagery.

I do believe there "is" an eye.

It's spinning, watched it on various loops.

Looks stronger than 105

But NHC makes that call.

Will see what we see at daylight.

NHC discussion says..

Major Hurricane in 12 hours?
Think Isaias is in a rush...

I see an eye.

Do you see an eye?

In loops it spins too.

That tail goes all the way down...
...to the Yucatan!!

Looks like an eye to me!
Small...low down.

In motion.....
Red Hot below!

Imagery tonight is spectacular.
Banding... the eye.
CDO whoah.

Water vapor tells the story.

Dry air on the back side.

Isaias don't care.

It popped out a tail.

A real Hurricane Tail!

You can see the squeeze play.

From the West... from the East.

Isaias has a mission....

... impressive fighter!

Keep reading from earlier.

Read if you have the time...

...the post from this morning.

Watch out for what happens...

...after landfall!

Good song for Isaias.... good song.

****

Wow, who had that on their Bingo Card?

For the 5 PM

So let's take a minute here to apprecitate this accomplishment Isaias is achieving. This is a water vapor loop above. Blue & Hot Pink are moisture. It's surrounded on both sides by dry air. Squeezing in. Forcing it to move on the track the NHC has outlined in their advisories, consistently. And, yet despite the dry air, that it's mixing out and the shear that it's fighting off..... it's thriving. Okay, it may be a small window of opportunity over the next 24 hours, but a system that perserveres and thrives is one that needs to be reckoned with somewhere down the line. Easy to hope it falls apart before landfall, but I think it's gonna fall apart after landfall. Will it be at it's strongest at landfall? Time will tell. We will see.

In truth Meteorology is all about mathematics, when all is said and done. Don't get me wrong it's the Queen of Earth Science, but it's all about simple math and extremely complicated math. In the old days people didn't have computers or AI to do the math for us... (tho they can make mistakes)...it's also simple math.

Shear is a negative. Minus.
Dry air is a negative. Minus.
Hot water is a positive. Plus.

Sometimes hurricanes out perform the models and sometimes they do not live up to the models. On any given day a hurricane will do something that surprises all of us, though in the end we can understand how that happened and yet the models missed it. October storms often surprise. Synoptics shows it, and yet sometimes still there are surprises. Even in 2026 when we feel as if we can do almost anything as fast as AI helps us....  hurricanes can still surprise us. And, that is one reason we love to track them... especially in the Atlantic Basin. Wish I was chasing. Could really use to be at the beach now and feel the buzz like "breeze" that Hurricane Wind you only feel from a real Hurricane as waves whipped up wildly rush towards land, with sea foam and sand attacking you and yet you don't care because you are there. 

Cone at 5 PM

Getting closer.

Moving faster.

Stronger.

If we go by wind probabilities the area between Destin and Pensacola should be where we get landfall. Check back at 11 PM for changes. But currently there is no time to do anything but evacuate (roads are very congested as expected) and prepare your home if you are in the Cone. Up the way, watch it carefully. Many places in Georgia have Flood Watches as do Alabama, and yet many cities have not cancelled college games, or high school programs. Bit surprising but time will tell. Err on the side of caution, stay home unless you are a trained storm chaser or work for one of the large networks covering the hurricane.

Zoom in....it's got power.

Before the sun sets ...

Stunning picture of the eye.
While I expected her it be a Hurricane.
Did not expect it to be so pretty.

Models....from Tropical Tidbits

Develops fast before landfall.

then ...inland. 

May be doing that now.....

Then after landfall

No Mas as we say in Miami.

Well no more a hurricane.

But trouble deep inland.

Could it flirt with Cat 3?

Winds die down....

...the rains remain.

Maybe.... jury is not out yet.

Still deliberating......

Dvorak.... 

Tomorrow morning is the time...

...when it is expected to be 110 MPH.

Close to Cat 3

I show the DVORAK as it's....
....used by the NHC in forecasts.

Note discussion below.

Visible imagery before the sun sets....

Check those last frames out.

Power there in that storm.

I'll update later.

Just wanted to get this out now.

Stay tuned.

IF you did not read the earlier post today.

Please do as there's much that needed to be said.

Beware. Stay aware.

Take this seriously.

And again this is not just about the wind.

Mimic shows the water, the convection.

All those red, pink and fuscia colors...

...shows how much moisture it has...

..despite the nearby dry air.

That moisture beats forward... 

...it's not watching the wind speed.

It's got it's eye on the coast and ....

...will push deep inland.

Be back with updates later this evening.

BobbiStorm

85 MPH Hurricane Isaias Strengthening Moving Faster Towards Landfall. Expecting Intensification!! How High? Prepare Now! And Know "I" Storms Have A History of Flooding Far Inland to the North of Landfall. Remember Ida ???

 11 AM Looking strong!

Bottom line from NHC

3 time stamps at 100 MPH +

This *could* make it to Cat 3

Or just under.

This is the DVORAK imagery.

NHC uses this to measure intensity.

on many levels.

Putting the video here below

It's up on X.

I'll update later...

...full new post after the 5 PM!

Keep reading as everything applies...
....it's just stronger now.

And I don't think it's looking back.,

Totally pulled away from the BOC

...away from EPAC system 

(had seemed "anchored" there)

On the move...

...and expected to strengthen.

Watch out.

Stay aware.

Do your prep if you are in the Cone.

Or in watches and warnings

BobbiStorm's bottom line

Expect big things from Isaias today.

d

*****

8 AM

 80 MPH Hurriacne Isaias.
On the move and intensifying!

Let's look at landfall from the 5 AM.

Will discuss after landfall down below.

Good morning! As I sip my Nespresso and look at loops after reading NHC discussion, comparing what we see with what may be in the models I try and think what to say that hasn't been said before. I suppose the most honest thing I can say is to ignore all the hype and ignore all the doubters. If you know Hurricane History as I do ...and I do.... you'd know that this is the most typical October Hurricane in the Gulf. You will hear all the buzz words "shear" and "approaching front" and "asymmetrical appearance" as well as "tornado threat" and "storm surge" and someone somewhere telling you "this isn't anything to worry on" because it's not Michael nor Melissa and it's an El Nino Year. Don't believe that person, err on the side of caution and prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Yes, it's an old saying and it's still around as it's the best advice anyone can give you.

In truth it's all the hyperbole is true and yet it's a distraction. Pay attention to the messages from the NHC, from your local NWS and your local favorite meteorologist who has never let you down and knows the dangers in your own town. Enjoy TWC if you watch it as well as Fox Weather and Weather Nation, they all provide excellent advice. After that follow those who you understand and who resonate with you be it Mike from Mike's Weather Page or Dabuh who speaks in rhymes and lyrics with a message many understand and take note of whoever helps you understand the dangers of the storm. And, yes ...even in an El Nino year, in a quiet hurricane season remember first hurricane this year will be a landfalling hurricane. Any hurricane moving steadily towards your town, your home, the place where you work is a dangerous hurricane. 

Many here in North Carolina remember Floyd vividly. Just the name "Floyd" in some parts here is a  visceral memory that jerks them alive every time they remember it's Hurricane Season. Floyd was that hurricane that swamped parts of North Carolina in 1999  creating the "Flood of the Century" in NC far inland in the river basins that have rich fertile farmland. Floyd drowned those towns and took out the farms after making landfall as a "weak" Cat 2 down some from the wild Category 4 it had been before landfall. And, getting weaker in wind speed and worse in flooding as the water just kept rising.

 As a Miami girl living in the Carolinas I can remember the weak, wobbly Floyd in 1987 that was an October "weak" hurricane that threaded the Florida Keys moving NE up towards Miami. My toddler jumping up and down on my mother's open up sofa cut his forehead and my brother and I drove through the "height" of the storm to my doctor on South Beach who had an office in her house and she put stitches into his forehead. I remember the traffic lights swaying wildly in the tropical wind. While it trashed many areas along it's way up towards Miami it was no Irma, but you never know what will happen in a Hurricane. Not every hurricane is a Melissa nor a Mitch nor a Michael, but "I" storms have a history of doing quite a job be they Irma or Isaias of 2020. The last Isaias cost Five Billion Dollars, 12 people died and many lost power for days....and yet the name was not retired, though some argued it should have been. 

Every hurricane has it's own inherent dangers. Do you have young children at home? Do you have an elderly family member living with you? Do you have dogs that need walking and some that are terrified of storms? Do you live near a river or the beach, are you in a flood zone? Do you know the hurricane history in the town you live in?? Do you know the escape route if the river rises and flooding begins? Should you hunker down and stay or leave if you live along the beach?

IDA

Lastly let's look at Ida a hurricane in late August that slammed into the same area that our 2026 Isaias has been threatening, all the media was down by the coastline covering it. And, then it moved up towards the Ohio River Valley and as a tropical depression deep inland it flooded the subways of New York and the highways of New Jersey and when all was said and done 92 people died in the United States across a wide area some very far from landfall. Everyone remembers where Camille made landfall, few remember it was responsible for horrific flooding way far up North in the Virginias. 

So again, today as I did yesterday, look at the track beyond the landfall. Look at where your the flooding may be ....far from the Cone and remember if you live Up North you may be hosting remnants of Isaias after it's left the beautiful beach towns of the Gulf Coast. All this energy WILL go somewhere and as it' mixes it up with a frontal boundary and other weather influencers.... tornadoes are possible as well as (and I pray not) flooding up in Tennessee and the Carolinas...especially in the mountainous areas and foothills. 

ISAIAS

Where does it go from here?

And, where will it's moisture go?

The energy that began down in the BOC

It won't end at landfall nor the area above.

7 Day Rainfall ....

much far from the Cone. 

I'll update later today around Noon.  My concern is where is this going and what will it do once it gets inland and often the center of the depression goes one way and the dangerous rains create power ourages and flooding far to the East of the "cone" the NHC is tracking. So keep an eye on the NWS for your local area while covering the landfall of Isaias.

More to come... thanks for reading.

BobbiStorm

Hurricane Isaias Has an Eye ....Pay Attn to Weather Far From the Cone. Follow All Watches & Warnings.

 

Guess what popped out just after....

...they sent out the 11 PM

1st Selfie below!!

in motion

New Cone and Rainfall graphics.

Note how far to the East of the Cone...

...the dangerous rain, possible flood concerns.

That said....

will update in the morning.

Plan to be online...

watching the eye.

Keep reading.... was written recently

before the updated 11 PM I added at top.

10 PM

Intensiying.

Cone below.

Close up dangers.

Dangers outside the "Cone"

Rain + Terrain = Pain.

Flash FLooding Concerns.

I've been busy all day with appointments that could not be changed, so trying to play catch up here tonight. Rather than go long on models, I'm going to discuss what I'm most concerned about and that is while landfall is important so is weather far from landfall. And depending on what category Hurricane Isaias is at landfall the dangers could be immense, more than most realize. But the "Cone" only forecasts where the "eye" will go and not the dangers inherent in any nearby landfalling Hurricane. Currently Isaias is a strong Tropical Storm. It's hard to look at it down in the Gulf as a tropical storm and think beyond that for some people. And, more so many people focus on the "Cone" and ignore the dangers outside the Cone.

Doesn't scream danger.

And yet there are dangers.

What it is forecast to look like in 24 hours is a hurricane, and possibly a strong hurricane. Category 1 or 2, and we tell people to prepare for one category higher always so keep that in mind and do that math tomorrow night. 

October Hurricanes (and tropical storms) are often mishaped, assymetrical and can at times look blobby. They lean to the right as the system that will pick them up and pull them to the North, the North East towards landfall makes them look this way. The atmospheric dynamics create the shape of the Hurricane. For those of you who have lived along the Florida Panhandle you know this drill, for newbies it's difficult to comprehend. Things can change fast in the Gulf, close in and when a hurricane begins to smell the mucky shores near the coves along the coast from Mobile, Alabama east along the Florida Panhandle and even down towards the Big Bend. A shallow shelf, marshy land... low country and the very shape of the coastline itself sometimes helps nudge a system stronger just before landfall and surge can be high even for a weak storm. And, sometimes they peak out before landfall and deceptively seem weaker than expected and other times they explode just before landfall.

The one thing that is a constant is the storm surge, the moisture that has been caught up in a system and traveled the Gulf towards landfall and that power is strong and destructive. We tend to focus on wind speed with hurricanes. A hurricane is a hurricane when it winds reach 74 MPH. We don't say "when the storm surge is 6 feet high" or "when it will cause flash flooding that can wipe out..." it's all about the wind when we talk designation.

And, yet the real danger is usually the storm surge and the heavy rains and possible tornadoes and flooding in places in places inland where the terrain rises and rain water can run down hill fast and furious.  It's all one long run on sentence if you have ever been in a Hurricne in this neck of the woods.

Know your dangers.  

The coastline dangers are different from the inland dangers. River Flooding is deceptive and happens fast. And, regarding rain this storm will be RIGHT SIDE HEAVY.... most of the weather will be on the RIGHT SIDE ... to the East far from the Cone. 

 

5 Day Rainfall Totals.

Red & Purple pretty but not good.

Compare the track to the rainfall graphic.

Note how much dangerous weather...

...is far outside the Cone.

Way East of the Cone.

This concerns me.

This worries me.

When Helene hit in W NC

People insisted there was little warnings.

Those who obsessively follow the NHC

... packed up the truck and left fast.

Most did not :( 

Many died.

Towns torn apart.

Bridges broken.

Lives destroyed.

Augusta was ripped apart.

Areas in South Carolina...

..suffered heavy damages

far from the eye making landfall.

I worry on North Georgia.

They have had flooding up in the mts lately.

Many town in the foothills...

....of the Appalachians.

I will update after 11 PM

I'll be here tomorrow.

But I do think the storm will pull...

...to the right.

Lean right.

Dry backside.

Wet foreward side.

The East Side.

NE of landfall.

The cone may remain....

...but the dangerous weather...

...will race NE NNE and 

eventually East.

That's a whole lot of moisture.

Follow the cookie crumbs.

Wet cookie crumbs.

And I have not even mentioned...

NJ and NY

places way to the North...

that could get torrential rain.

Thanks for your patience.

Thanks for reading.

Follow local weather experts.

Old timers. NWS

Local On Air Experts.

NHC is tracking the center.

The eye ...when it appears.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Hope this publishes correctly.

New laptop. New issues :)

We have not bonded yet...