A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, August 13, 2026
92L at 80% Chances Red But NHC Not Blinking Yet... 94L Behind It.. Models Always Love the New Wave! Hawaii on Watch... Who Do U Believe In 2026? Which Model Gets It Rgith?
Again using my Mike does the Tropics Art Work.
Oh look Louie the dog.......gets into the show. Invests 92L & 94L on the map.
93L is now TD Cristobal.
Subtropics hot ....
...Caribbean is not.
Summertime and the living is NOT easy. Whoever made up that song lived somewhere like Minnesota or maybe Canada and they didn't have to dig out from mile high snow! Trust me it ain't easy Down South in an El Nino year and Lord it's been crazy hot out in Colorado and Montana. I'm much more into Autumn Leaves falling and the sun puts on cool shades and you can breathe again and the Fall air with falling leaves put a glow into my golden world of wonder!
Let's talk Tropics. What can you say about models that fall in love with the next wave off of Africa every few days. I've never seen models crushing on every, early August wave in an El Nino Year as much as this year. They keep promising a big storm spinning into the Caribbean, against all logic and every wave goes the way ever other wave seems to have gone....and that is not the way the models said it might. That said, maybe ... you never know. Note the same models are hitting Hawaii with Hurricane Lala, and yet the big main island of Hawaii has never been hit by a hurricane directly. Then again this is Super El Nino so you never know.
Staying with Mike ..we are loyal friends!
Invest 92L W into Carib (??)
Invest 93L turns more up ...
...the way earlier waves didn't.
Either way question remains...
North of Islands..
East of Florida
SE of OBX
????
I do think in time
that is the zone where we worry.
Where we could have a big storm.
Some day this season...
...Remember September!
This is a close up of Dvorak Loop 92L
In ways I like it.
It's consistent.
Big wave, small center
Sliding West ...currently.
Not there yet it seems...
Image above from Zoom Earth, awesome site.
...so no PTC with this one tho is 80%
And yet.........this graphic says Nada!
So who is right and who is wrong?
which model gets it right?
Note I get why waves would stay West...
High is in defense mode.
Should be defensive player of the year...
...IF we don't get a hurricane.
But still weak West...
...should give it up to the shear there.
So stay tuned.
I'm going out for a while early today before it hits 100 degrees so there may be Ice Cream in my day or my regular Float this summer as that has been my drink of the day...Coke Float. If you know me, you know me and you're smiling. I'm consistent. If NHC is consistent they will upgrade 92L while I am not near the computer and semi offline ... staring at my phone and rolling my eyes.
11 AM 45 MPH Cristobal Forms in N ATL! Eclipse Day! 2 Invests 92L &93L 80% Red on 92L Does it Become Dolly? PTC One-C Talk on Hawaii Getting Hit By a Hurricane But....Will It?
Ha!l Thought it might get that C name!
Will update with info throughout the day.
So let's focus on 92L for now, til then
visible imagery shows circulation
Weak, but there.
In truth I thought it was a TS last night
....looping before I fell asleep.
Will discuss PTC One-C way below.
Staying with 92L that could become Dolly.
Starting with Mike today and typing while he's talking, as hearing Mike's voice puts me in a good playful mood. These are the players. I like this map, better than the NHC but when they upgrade it to TD (if they do) I'll definitely show "THE CONE" from NHC IF 92L gets an upgrade!
But I woke up to Invests and to be honest, that's a lot considering how deader than a doornail the Atlantic was expected to be by many.
I was curious, I mean what is a doornail?
Now you know, now we know.
Moving on back to tropics.
Always thought Cristobal would be the N ATL system.
Weather happens in real time, remember that.
Models are maybe, NHC is forever.
So staying with our Wave Train for now...
Anyway the focus here today is on 92L
Will 92L get an upgrade?
She's far out there... well "it" for now.
Big waves take longer to pull together.
That is a factor here.
Let's look at the wider view of our Wave Train.
I screenshot this because....
to show the actual pattern of this wave train. So we have new wave in a bright red dress.
Then we have 92L lacking convection
Remnants of last wave near the Islands
Then we see convection N of Hispaniola.
Reason I am showing this...
..it's more likely 92L
follows this pattern.
Often in El Nino years waves battle negative conditions and the strong headwinds coming out of Carib creating shear and as they near the Islands they begin to fall apart. And the shear also in ways redirects them or parts of their convection to the North and they struggle. Sometimes........they struggle so much they lose their Mojo and start to fall apart ...........and then sometimes North of the Islands closer in to Bahamas or Florida they perk up and come back together sort of reborn, reformed and ready to go.
That is not a forecast, it's a reminder it has happened before and what has happened before tends to happen again when the conditions are similar. So keep it in mind this year.
Back to 92L and Mike's Artwork today.
While convection is a bit lacking.
What convection there is in all the right places.
And you can see it's "form" today.
Will the NHC blink???
Totally true on what he said and I've said it often, nothing like watching a system come together in real time. It's truly amazing to those of us who enjoy all parts of the process of tropical formation. Loving formation does not equate with making landfall and doing horrific damage. Most people who follow me and Mike and others online have been hit by a hurricane and once hit by a hurricane, you become a little paranoid and want as much info in advance that you can get. That probably applies to Mike and I as we have grown up with hurricanes as Florida kids and knowledge is power and it gives you a head's up to get your plan in place should a tropical system comes knocking at your door! You won't be standing there at the store looking at empty shelves with nothing left on them but canned oysters!
Something different from Windy.com
Let's look at "rain accumulation" modeling.
EURO above shows it getting into Carib.
GFS slower, less and getting in there a bit
(note it's top heavy tho)
Icon doesn't buy it.
Islands been deprived of rain this summer.
Icon shows it stronger...
..and further to the N above the Islands.
Where does 92L go?
Still has a long ways to go
This is the precipitable water vapor loop.
Moisture...rain...
So still wondering does 92L
(maybe Dolly) be the one
to go through the Islands
in 2026 El Nino
or will they continue to be deprived
of needed rain?
Will see sooner rather than later.
So stay tuned.
As for the new PTC headed towards Hawaii.
If it forms it'll be Lala
Lala Does Hawaii!!
(Pacific has such great names...)
Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C (formerly CP93),
First Cone below.
Hawaii currently.....in crosshairs.
In the Cone!
35 MPH now...
...forecast to be a Hurricane.
NHC busy today
Most my readers do not come from there.
And most here worried on the Atlantic Basin.
But in El Nino Years chances go UP for Hawaii
for impacts and landfall.
1992 they got Iniki
Direct landfall on KauaŹ»i
Cat 4 - I believe.
Had friends there filming so yeah heard about it..
First Miami got hit with Andrew...
..then Hawaii with Iniki
In real time I had no cable...
...no TV til after Iniki had made landfall.
Knew it made landfall but we were busy in Miami
Post Hurricane Andrew.
In my mind the landfalls are always linked together.
Updated 8 PM Invest 92L & 93L Tagged. New Wave on Block Fresh off of Africa 20% Yellow...92L has 80% Red in the 7 Day. 60% in the 2 Day. N ATL Invest 40% ...But Hey It's Got an Invest ... NHC Pulls Plug on Old Lead Wave That Juiced Up the Path for Invest 92L
92L: 80% in days-60% in 2 days!
It's now the "old wave" 92L
New Wave off Africa 20% in 7 days!
Our Mid Atlantic cruiser is now orange
and it's been upgraded to 40% chances
(do it FAST it has a small window)
Are we busy enough?
????
Well with things to watch?
C name still waiting to be used.
Best signature so far today!
92L Are you going to be Cristobal
or???
such tropical drama.
This has always been my favorite Jimmy CD and I have a lot of them. It's a very Miami song, lots of hidden clues to Miami History and just Jimmy having fun. Gotta love someone who knows how to have fun. Don't steal the Orange Bowl Queen ;) Indeed........been a day in many ways so gonna take a long hot bath ....or shower.........or both!! ;) Love this song, love the whole CD.
***
The red, round ball with yellow around it ... ...up high in the middle of this image is 93L.
Who saw that coming you may ask?
I mentioned this area on Friday as possibly suspect.
Low chances but high enough NHC tagged it 93L
And to the bottom right of the image...
...way down low.
Is 92L in the wave train off Africa.
There's a new contestant leaving Africa today.
92L the Invest we have been waiting on...
Models are below for 92L
Starting with 92L the African Wave that is now Westbound in the Atlantic battling it's way through dry air and eventual shear down the road. These are early models, first set to be up and there will be more information later. I wanted to get this up so we can see where we are now, and look back tomorrow and compare what we were thinking on Tuesday. 92L is Westbound, rolling along and the sun has already set on it.
93L is what we call in the Subtropics.
Yes they can get a name.
From Tropical Tidbits!
East bound and headed out to sea...
Sometimes a system such as this can impact the general pattern out in the Atlantic. I'll talk on this tomorrow IF this is a possibility. People have spoken on a stagnant pattern and often Mother Nature thows a surprise at us ...especially in El Nino Years. So stay tuned.
The Mimic is so beautiful.
It's literally at times an Artist's Muse
93L could pass 92L Eastbound
So we'd have an Invest up above..
..and an Invest down below.
Tomorrow is Eclipse Day.
The double blue line is totality.
The Green line won't see much...
...but small part of the sun may hide.
Stay tuned!
Will update at 8 PM with new info
Thanks for being here.
Been a long day for me.
Lots off my mind at times.
Restless... I was born restless.
Yet in the hot Carolina Summer....
I take it easy and wait for FALL
Keep reading if you did not from the blog earlier.
Bonus song today.
****
11 AM below
Using this graphic Eric Burris put up on X as it's easy to read, see and tells the story very well. NHC basically pulling the plug on the lead wave. And, yet the lead wave was never really expected to develop, the lead wave provided a gas line of moisture that allowed the stronger, big wave behind it at 70% Red to get to Red status. Waves need a moist environment to develop, and they need warm water more on that later. With tons of SAL (Saharan Dust) in the atmosphere that can choke out a good wave, unless the wave before it has left a battery pack so to speak of moisture for the 2nd wave to get further to the West closer to warmer water and stay alive and in the race.
BayNews9 awesome page.
The road out ahead of our RED wave..
...has been juiced up by the old wave.
it's a constant process.
Think of this as a good blocker who is blocking for a great running back in Football. The Running Back becomes famous, rarely does the blocker though sometimes. The blocker doing his job, guarantees the RB can take off and pick up yardage and the coveted First Down. Also when there is SAL the same thing happens sometimes with early waves that try and plough though the SAL, give it up to the dust and coughing, sputter away into nowhere land. The wave behind it has more breathing room to make a run or the roses so to speak or a touchdown (Landfall) so pay attention to the whole ballet of satellite imagery, don't just stare at the AOI now currently 70% Red. And, speaking of RED let's look at SAL maps showing where the Sahran Dust is currently.
The areas out ahead of our wave where the Red
...in punctuated by dark colors is where a wave busted thru.
Red below means SAL, says STOP!
SAL is the blocker in football.
Wider view shows the bigger story.
Main basic points to remember...
..remember today and every day.
Whenever we have a 70% chance of development..
..especially in El Nino year or in SAL season this is true.
SAL lightens usually in September.
That is why September is Prime Time in the tropics.
Well, one reason that ..more on water temps later.
Again Football
August is PreSeason September is Prime Time.
So before rather than showing models that change on every run.. these facts need to be remembered.
1. Nothing happens in a vacuum ...pay attention to the whole picture on satellite imagery.
2. SAL is strong, though it has some lighter areas where waves went previously.
3. Shear is there as well waiting for this wave that is taking it's time to become an Invest.
4. Big waves take longer to pull together a coherent center.
5. Without a coherent center models are stabs in the dark, trying hard to help guide us.
6. Models offer suggestions and then they do it again later in the day.
7. If a wave is dawdling it misses the time frame of the previous guidance models.
8. If that happens the models begin to pull more to the South and get further West.
9. IF the wave suddenly wraps fast* then next model runs may pull more to the North.
10. *Not easy to do battling shear and dry air and lower than perferred water temperatures.
11. Water in the MDR is still warming up and less warmth in the water slows development.
12. Take all models with a grain of sea salt and don't expect early models to totally verify. They do however show the general pattern, but they also evolve in real time.
We are far from Prime Time in the tropics...
...and the water heats up more each day.
Why we worry this time of year "close in"
where the water is HOT!
Takes so many factors to get an actual named storm to develop, more so a real Hurricane and more so in an El Nino year ...especially one where the Canary Current that impacts that part of the Atlantic has been wonky. So stay tuned, this is not a sprint, it's a marathon as a friend reminded me. It's also a bit of a hurdle race as the wave (if it becomes Cristobal) has to jump thru SAL, jump over shear and get to near where the water is warm and welcoming. Longer it takes to develop it gets further West, unless some huge cold front moves down fast allowing it to make a hard right to race off after it. Models below.
60% Area of Interest Further Out... Closer in Lower Chances.
Waves
Tropical Waves.
That was IS looking healthy!
Models show development...
...more so 2nd wave with 60%
I'd think if we hit 70%
NHC might make an Invest!
As always
El Nino nor No El Nino
There's shear at the entrance to the Carib
More yes, still same old story
Can it pull to the North ...wNw enough
To pull up over the Islands
Land around PR or to the NE
and then what?
Keeping this short today. This is not a day to go long on speculation as much as to watch and wait in real time. I'll update later today IF NHC blinks, IF models hop on more than hop off. And, really I want to see what it does in real time on the satellite imagery, what it's got going there. IF it gets a good signature on Earthnull which it does not yet, but this was always forecast to be later in the week time wise for development.
Wave Train Busy Like Palmetto Expressway at Rush Hour. Which Survives? Which Thrives? How Will New AI Models Handle the Traffic? 2 Areas of Interest!!
Love Zoom Earth....
...shows the satellite imagery and areas of interest.
I still do not understand why NHC won't do this..
...but am sure they have their reasons.
You can see the SAL.
You can see the convection.
(always watch the water vapor with waves....)
Does a wave develop into a storm...
..that gets precariously close to OBX
Similar to the clouds out there today?
Somewhere between Bermuda and OBX?
I keep wondering on that...
...because of current pattern.
Mike is awesome with grids...
...isn't he?
That said this is very long range modeling. This is very, very long range modeling as forecasting that these waves might develop and end up close to the US coastline but not be a threat (as I have heard some say as if they have tropical psychic powers) as the reality is what we think fronts will or won't do this time year is not very reliable and all depends on how close ...how fast......how slow the models go and IF they are battling an Upper Level Low or other factors I'm not going into as this is already too long a run on sentence. Believing in a 10 day models with two possible systems close together this far out is like the world's longest run on sentence.
So going to take it slow, watch in real time, check the models and get on with my life today. The wave over Africa is delicious to watch from a distance on the satellite loops, it literally has a spin to it. But I am not obsessing. Let's see what we see tomorrow. Lots to watch suddenly and I'm taking it one day at a time, one wave at a time.
yes I know my fav hurricane season song
Yes I'm using it as a sound track as I loop....
There is so much I want to say but I'm not ready to say regarding the Wave Train of August 2026. Our two areas being watched by the NHC and the third wave waiting to join the party. It's a Conga line and haven't seen one in a while so I want to sit back and enjoy it. Once upon a time there were models. And, when I say models I mean usually the good one and the crappy one and the new one getting attention. Then we had an array of good models, but mostly talked on talked on the EURO vs the GFS. Now we have the AI models and there are a whole lot of them, so choose wisely. And, can't wait to see how well the new improved 2026 AI models do with a wave train that's as congested as the Palmetto Expressway at Rush Hour... if you know you know.
I love models.
You know what I love more? I love watching satellite imagery and using other data to slice and dice a good wave train. I love the wide view of what is happening everywhere that the models see when they spit out conflicting data. I love chasing. I love being at the ocean preferably feeling the wind, the waves, and watching sea foam flying in the wind and even here inland in Raleigh the way we chased a line of wild storms by ISAIAS in 2020 talk about getting out into the world during the whole Covid mess. So never lose site of of these parts of the equation nor get lost in just one part of the drama.
I'll be honest. I am not rushing this. I am not obsessing nor freaking out. My thoughts are tempered by both El Nino and a good knowlege of Hurricane History. Don't rush it. Enjoy it. Savor it like coffee or sex or a good football game. I mean we are talking on models promising development on Friday. Note Friday is FIVE days away before we even get lift off for possible development. Pace yourself!
For the South Florida crowd...
Phil as always is awesome to follow.
Even if you don't live in S FL..
Currently my mind is here....
Interesting wave over Africa still.
Interesting, fantastic QB that played for Carolina..
...oh my goodness.
Time will tell...
Did y'all know Lynette Charles is one of my favorite people on TWC? Just putting it out there. She is smart, she is smooth, she is classy, she is on top of it all and does a great job showing the whole picture of weather on Sunday Morning. Love listening to friends on YouTube. I watch a lot of Fox Weather as they do a bang up job, less set in parameters that TWC tends to be, they show satellite imagery, radar they show the weather and even watch Weather Nation even though I'm not in Canada. Apps... are good, I watch them all ................. but currently pacing myself, enjoying the moments. Watching the way the sun hits my window decorations when it hits a certain height in the sky. I stand outside in the earning morning and feel how the balcony is cooler in the morning than it's been; drier before the heat heats up and the humidity that rules the day. I ponder what Autumn decoration I'll put up when I take the Summer stuff down because I'm Southern and we do that.
Stay tuned. Don't rush this..... take it slow, take it in parts and don't buy any 10 day out forecast and never rule out surprises in El Nino years.
Never. Stop. Chasing.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
Always amazes me at times such as these I live in the Carolinas and have for a long time. I go to Miami often so sometimes I forget. So when I look at a wave train I look with one eye on Miami and the other eye on Raleigh Durham area. I really live here, go figure. Often debating how close it'll come to Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach ...even if it's curling away.... Enjoy the music, it tells a story with musical clues.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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