Edouard LANDFALL - Johnson Bayou, Louisiana...Moving into Texas Currently. Strong Tropical Storm... Starts Off September

4:30 PM

Edouard made landfall in Louisiana.
Johnson Bayou, near Sabine River.

I took some time today to just watch him spin online, watch friends chasing ...watch their feeds. Appreciating the fact that Edouard ramped up enough to be a formidable Tropical Storm. Pressure was lower, winds were higher, gusts were significant. It'll be interesting to see what NHC says after the season is over and they go back and evaluate data and well I'm curious.  Didn't limp ashore at 40 MPH. Winds were 60 MPH with gusts recorded higher in the low 70s, so that's nothing to make fun of as some like to do. Sadly. There are waves, not talking about them today. Today is all about TS Edouard making landfall!

A quick look at the tropics. Edouard is top left making landfall. A huge area of convection is lingering, throwing menacing looks yet NHC isn't in a rush to go there again. But it's over warm water and seems stuck there, so you have to wonder what could go wrong? Many storms have formed from such dyamics and many times went out to sea ...eventually. We have high 90s in Raleigh, there is no "cold front" and it's supposed to last through the week. Possibly temperatures near 100 (not feels like) and feels like 100 plus every day. The environment is riper than many would say close in, should something linger. There's an sneaky Upper Level Low South of Cuba and that will enhance rainfall to it's NW so you can see there it's showing color too near the x leftovers from XDolly that decided to take the hard crawl across the North coast of Haiti. 

We can talk on that another day. Will follow up tomorrow with what impacts Edouard left behind as it's swirled into Texas finally and lighting up the radar.  Thanks for following along and remember September started out with a landfalling Tropical Storm trying to become a hurricane. El Nino is definitely a negative factor, but trouble happens wherever it can so stay prepared and aware!    Besos BobbiStorm!!

 11 AM at the bottom... keep reading.

Current Dvorak...here and again at the bottom.

Making Landfall in it's way.

compare and contrast IR with earlier

8 AM below keep reading in real time ;)
like life :)

That's Edouard spinning.

While color IR is always sexy.

Dvorak above measures intensity.

It's an important site.

NHC mentions it often in discussion.

Note the white blow up....

...close in to the coast.

That's a sign it's trying to do something.

It's hard to really write this morning as I have thoughts I don't want to really say. NHC keeps talking on Intensification coming and holding out chance that it can attain hurricane winds... gust. Look at that Visible Image just taken, it's partially onshore.  It's not "Landfall" until the center crosses the finish line so it's not landfalling yet. But it's clear parts of Edouard are over land, and land interaction can take a bite out of a storm that is not strong. Water is hot close in. Storms do odd things close in, think on all those BOC weak nothing storms that ramp up just before they cross the finish line. So wouldn't say it cannot rule that out and the NHC hoisted a Hurricane Watch and that's good as people will take it more seriously. 

NHC just posted an update.

50 MPH

Pressure 1000 MB

It's that's close to the coast.

A map of where Edouard is heading.

NHC say 65 MPH "on the coast"

Well that could verify. It could be stronger or weaker. I'm going with 55 MPH as most likely, though who really knows it's a very small storm and they are prone to spin up should they get the chance quickly. Better to be prepared than not. Chasers be chasing. Had this been by the coast in NC I definitely would have gone down to the beach for it. Would so love to go down to the beach for a storm.. .heck I'd go for an Invest this year. Last year I was at OBX as Erin was offshore.... awesome there when there's an storm out at sea kicking up the waves and the wind and the sand. 

I'll be back when the next advisory comes out I really, really want to take a long shower. I think better in the shower. I wonder does that happen to most people or just writers?

Stay tuned!

Note they lowered their expectations wind wise...

Currently they say it's 50 MPH

It's really ...in my opinion....making Landfall slowly

(mine, not NHC saying that)

though they did put the new Cone at the shore line.

Also taken anything higher than 35 out of wind probs.

That is very telling.

I'm still going with 55 MPH

But think they brought the recon back so...

...will see land observations.

Radar Imagery

Best it has looked really.

Be back later with some real thoughts.

Regarding September.

I would not count out development.

Close in... 

...up in the Atlantic

More thoughts another time.

Shower was awesome.

Got things to do....

watching friends chase as I do things.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Yes old movie. Love it tho. 

Love the soundtrack.

I was living in LA

Good Times

West Hollywood/Melrose 

Watched it in theatre on Hollywood Blvd 

In truth this hurricane season has been a lot like...

...looking for development in all the wrong places.

Hoping to find something to track...

...something to chase.

Something to feel...

wind, rain, breeze

gusts and sea foam flying down the beach.

People are often attracted to the wrong people...

...or the right ones if time does not run out.

As the NHC says.

Models want to see a hurricane somewhere.

They are programmed to fetch so to speak.

Water Vapor loop never lies. 

Honest.

Mimic doesn't like either.

Making Landfall as I type.

8 PM UPDATE EDOUARD Tropical Storm! NHC Raises Possible Winds in TS Edouard to 60 MPH. Tropical Storm Warnings Posted Texas & Louisiana - Some Thoughts on Dolly's Rements

Surreal couple hours with everyone online asking why it looked like an "eye" was visible at times, and yet it had not been upgraded to Tropical Storm. One loop and image after enough. In truth we did NOT need an "eye" like feature ....there are minimal hurricanes that never get an eye... but hard to believe it was not a Tropical Storm especially as at times on loops an "eye" like feature was forming. So we now have Tropical Storm EDOUARD!   Done deal on that one, coming in on the last few hours of August. It'll be curious what the 11 PM advisory shows. Ps note as Josh shows, this is not just an "eye" like feature but an eye wall like feature forming!   

5 PM Tropical Depression 5.

TD5 Looking better.
Spiral bands.
Obvious center
Consolidating. 

Spreading out it's arms a big.

Nice banding... 

s

Note they extended warnings in Louisiana

Tho still headed towards Texas.

Let's say the State Line....
...then inland towards Houston area

I can see it wants to do Dallas...but..

NHC stops the Cone just before there.

Truth is the barometric pressure needs to drop some, and when Recon goes back in they need to see real TS winds before they upgrade it to the E name. Not much to add as it's a wait and see situation. The NHC did say that they are expecting the winds to eventually be stronger and put 60 MPH into the updated advisory. Small storms, once pulled together as it is doing currently can become stronger quickly just prior to Land

all. This is a close in storm ....on MIMIC you can see the consolidation of the precipitation that will move inland. 

 About as close as it gets. Everyone in the Cone and area where this is moving should pay attention to all updates and expect surprises as what it is tonight is not what it was this morning. NHC taking it pretty seriously by upping winds closer to Hurricane strength and the old rule is you always prepare for a stronger storm then forecast...just to be safe.

I'll update later tonight but for not making hamburgers for dinner with onions & peppers fried with a bit of bourbon in them ;) and sweet potato fries so .... stay tuned. Note the important facts below.

11 AM

PTC 5 Forms

when I heard PTC 5 was upgraded.
This was the song playing

Can't make that up... Choosing Texas :)

As Close In as you can get!

Pressure is high, won't lie.

Close in, very problematic.

In Houston area problem is from 

FLOODING

remember that....

Harvey was a TS during flooding.

Tropical Storm Warnings Posted.

Interactive Cone below.

Shows timestamps...

And a reminder Louisiana has TS Warnings also.

This is called the Sabine River.

A beautiful area... prone to flooding in a storm.

Cities expected to have TS winds.
Cameron, Louisiana has a chance at 50 MPH
not a big chance but surprised me.

So while Edouard is chosing Texas...

... Louisiana getting some too!

Link below to wind probabilities at 11 AM

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWS

AT5+shtml/311455.shtml? wind probs

NHC says Edouard as of 11 AM advisory.

Advisory tops it out at 45 MPH.

NHC usually begins conservatively.

Good post on X by Ryan Hall.

Says it all...basically.

Models. Note not one makes it a Cane.

Just saying. 

Some keep it alive longer but we will see.

Super El Nino years are know by the plethora of short term tropical storms, often close in and often small in size as well. Small core, though they can have big impacts as the rain will fall across a wide area that has many bayous where small towns and big ones like Houston were built in. Ryan mentions 9 inches, could be more. NHC waited til this morning, when many who are very wise expected the PTC to go up earlier. NHC makes that call, so it's on the NHC and they do not take the decision lightly. Whatever what was done has been done, hopefully people along the coast were getting good info from local weather people and online. But in that neck of the wood people go out fishing and doing things and are busy in those final days of summer and well I sure hope people are prepared.........should the concerns on flooding verify. Nuff said on that, will update later.  Especially as many were paying more attention to Dolly's remnants. Regarding those remnants here are some models. Will go into details in another post should she look like she can make it off the North Coast of Haiti where I believe she is currently. 

Models...not as excited.

My thoughts.

Should it get into this area:

Then it has a chance.

note the 86 degree water 

Old Bahama Passage....

on North coast of Cuba is hot.
There's a spot... where Dolly can get her groove back.

But can she?

Regarding Dolly.... her remnants are out there spread across a wide area near Haiti. She definitely took the harder road. Reminds me of the Scarecrow in Oz where they had to put him back together again. What will be will be. Watching. I have seen crazy things in the region on the North Coast of Cuba between there and the Bahamas and seen many a system that looked dead in the water come back to life and seen many not. Then again her Remnants may have a chance further up the road so we will see soon.

While not looking great.

She is very visible still in some ways.

Convective ways ... for now.

Stay tuned.

Will update should PTC be upgrade to Edouard.

And with later info today that is relevant.

BobbiStorm

10:30 AM

NHC Forecast Edouard to form 

Edouard Choosing Texas 

will update soon

I do so love Zoom Earth....

97L candidate to be PTC

or Edouard should Recon call it.

(recon is out there as I type)

Listening to Mike....

..have to be somewhere this morning

getting ready.

NHC will prob call it PTC at 11

when I'll be out at appointment

My bottom line this morning is that this should get the PTC tag. PTC means POTENTIAL Tropical Cyclone.  We have all known "that kid" with incredible potential that did not live up to our expectations. Though we also remember that kid who early on had so much potential and he exceeded even our expectations. I taught school once upon a time, before being the Children's Room Librarian at the City Library....before getting stuck on the Reference Desk all day as I was the librarian least likely to go postal (they do) and tell a patron off. And, then I moved onto Academia and ran a College Library. I say this as ....I always wonder what happened to that cute little Haitian kid who learned English in less than 6 months here when no one in his family spoke English and got As .... always figured he'd go far in life. But you never know. TWC is in place in Houston, that's a good measure of the potential Invest 97L has for some sort of tropical weather trouble.

As I have an appointment at 10:30 I'm guessing I'll be watching on the phone at my appointment should they upgrade at 11 AM. Either way.............will update this blog later today with whatever info the NHC puts out eventually as the potential for an upgrade today is there. Either way the dangers are there with a name or without a name.

"ability to develop"

stay tuned...

oh wait. 

PS 

will talk on X Dolly remnants later 

check back later 

song then too

gotta go

97L in the Gulf 50/50 Chances. X Dolly Dealing with PR & VI Currently Once Over Open Water ... Might Be Interesting

 

Orange area 97L 

Yellow is X Dolly

The area in the Georgia Bight

(S of NC and North of St Augustine)

That whole area and down to the South 

is an issue...with or without XDolly.

Tho Dolly reforming would create questions.

Where and when she develops.......

..........should she redevelop

is the question.

I would not count her out.

Either way she may get a vote in what happens.

This area is a concern.

Close in and it can create dangers.

Will discuss that later.

  

another view close up

Looks more than 50% to me.

Would be Edouard should it be named!

I want you to look at this and remember...

...I said X Dolly has had 2 competing areas  

both want to be the center.

Also note 97L classic at base of decaying front.

Where is the "center" of X Dolly

when I say "center" obviously wannabe center.

the Dream Center... 

looks like by PR right?

Changing parameters on Earthnull.

Oh look at that......

Until she solves this problem....

she will be X Dolly 

But once up into the Bahamas.

Near Cuba... SW of Miami...
if she finds her true center...

...we could have a problem.

Either way RAIN is in the forecast.

Surprisingly strong in some places.

Going to just type a bit and say honestly what I am seeing and thinking. X Dolly is trying to come back from the dead. That happens in El Nino years oten so it's not a big surprise. The real problem Dolly has is that it still has 2 areas that are competing for the title of center.That is nothing new there as she had that problem with a name, but it is what it is and in a Super El Nino year you play the cards you are dealt. Hopefully the islands are getting some much needed rain.

The issue with X Dolly reforming is that whether she does or doesn't there's potential trouble on the horizon closer in to let's call it the Bermuda Triangle meets the Georgia Bight. Dead fronts always up the ante development wise and so we watch, we wait and we don't ignore possibilities just because it's an El Nino Year. Below normal in numbers and even the ones so far have been on the mediocre side. That does not mean one cannot, will not break out and cause Major trouble. We have seen it before and we will see it again.

Not sure if NHC will post some sort of PTC watch or warning up along the Gulf coast as most models take 97L inland towards Texas and parts of Louisiana as I like to say the Sabine River area. Writing now, will update at 5 if they blink and that would be good as the rain forecast alone could be a big issue there.

I'll also say the 2 PM discussion was good and leaves the door ajar for Dolly to reform possibly down the road. It covers the closer in area. I still feel there is a disconnect on the chances for 97L but hoping people know it's there and are paying attention. 

I'll update should NHC decide a PTC Cone and advisory is worthwhile and important.

I had a good day. Got some things I needed that were on my shopping list. It was warm out but not unbearable and I hope the forecast for 98 and 99 do not verify for later this week. 

Oh and I had a Pumpkin something Cold Brew with foam :) and it was delightful! 

Sweet Autumn Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

2 Days til September