Whispers off Developent Down the Tropical Road. GFS Dreams Big. EURO Plays it Coy But Does See Something Close In

 

So you remember how we always talk about the HIGH being a huge factor in development or lack of tropical development and a steering factor if and when a system develops? So keep that in mind with this discussion today.

The GFS has been fairly persistent in something forming off the East Coast either down to the N of the Islands or closer in East of Florida on the far left edge of the Huge HIGH in the Atlantic. As always we say over and over until you hate hearing it "watch the tail end of an old front" and yet it often is the main producer of systems in El Nino years that favor close in development off the East or SE Coast far from the Big Bad El Nino that acts like the Big Bad Wolf that is going to blow Little Red Riding Hood away or in this case what may or may not become Cristobal if the GFS is right. That said the EURO is hinting at some sort of development in that same region, though not as strong of course as the always ready to party GFS. Going to show the GFS, but remember it changes on every run in some way, but most have focused on the coast of the Carolinas. It's true this started with the same system sliding along the Florida coast up towards the Carolinas, now it's consistently offshore the Carolinas. 

It's the GFS

If some off the AI models were on this...

...I'd pay more attention

Note tho there seems alot off rippling...
.. in that area.

The strip off orange that's angled to the ENE 
is moving one way
And the areas to the South are going the other way.

IR satellite imagery shows a little "dip"

Again often part of the front moves on out to sea.

And another part hangs back...
.......and sometimes it can spin into a system.

Lots of IFS

Remember this is WAY DOWN THE ROAD

I am just showing the current environment.

Interesting little swirl (li'l) near Mona Passage.

I just checked the TWO from NHC

That's an upper level low...as I thought.

but I like confirmation  ;)

Note center bottom of the loop.

That little swirl, ULL

Dancing in the Mona Passage

And to the NE nose of the High out to the right.

Near PR 

Listen getting development in an El Nino Year, a strong El Nino Year is not easy. And, it's usually the random connections of a dead in the water front over very warm water, some swirl moves into the area and helps get things spinning close in. Or cross currents do the trick. There are models that are playing with a distant African Wave but it's still a bit soon for August development in any year and this is NOT any year. So while I may watch it, I'm more concerned with close in development in regions beyond the reach of El Nino. And, close in systems especially close in to the coast have more chances to impact land or make landfall. And, IF something develops the general trend in modeling is the HIGH chooses a bad time to expand and push that system closer to the coast. Which is why we always watch the High. 

It's a definite "maybe" 

So stay tuned.

We are far from the NHC blinking yet.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere whatever

Nothing for 7 Days from NHC - Models Wake Up in 10 - 12 Days. Are Models Dreaming? Or Are Models Teasing Us? August Ups the Ante for the Search for the C Storm ;)

 

Let's call this ghostly apparitions of tropical dreams. This is what people are looking at on satellite imagery as vaguely, possible areas that could develop if the dice shake out just right. Models use them as writing prompts and create maps with possible areas of low pressure forming from a variety of appetizers that are most likely nothing more than teasers more than a treat before the full course. There's a tropical wave off Africa I didn't show, it's showing a bit of color but staying close to home on this one.

 We tell the models to "fetch" 
and they find possible scenarios.
This basic idea keeps showing up.
Today it's out to sea off the coast.
Yesterday it slid along the coastline.
Tomorrow is anyone's guess.

There's a lot of rain on the menu next week

5 day so let's look at the 7 day

Something is definitely lingering offshore the SE

add in the Florida Big Bend close in.

I don't know, that's my honest answer but as we move into August the ante for development (especially close in) is raised and somewhere, something will spin enough to get the NHC's attention. The C storm seems to be very shy or very sneaky and doesn't want to reveal himself just yet. Stay tuned....

As for me enjoying the drier air... 

..less humid and cooler at night.

Works for me

I'll check back tomorrow.

See what the models show Friday

going into the weekend.

Thanks for reading, 

Sweet Autumn Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps Autumn ...September is Prime time

One of my all time favorite JB songs.

Jimmy Dreams.

What do you dream?

Snow storms or Hurricanes?

I wonder.........

Wild Storms in Raleigh Yesterday. Low Range Possibilities Show Up on GFS .... Low Expectations. Summer... Where's the Beach?

 

Nothing expected short term ...

...many would say long term.

I take it day by day these days in the tropics.

Of note

1. old frontal system and storms that blew through Carolinas spinning up tornado warned storms and strong gusty winds with torrential rain yesterday. 

2. Odd possible fluff and stuff to the East of the huge High of darkness in the Atlantic.

3. Li'l tropical wave flirting with Central America could move up towards the Yucatan.

4. Wave Train riding on fumes, dry air and shear trying to shut it down but can't completely.

In motion EPAC hot the Atlantic is not.

Tho the Atlantic is not devoid of convection.

(seen it way drier in El Nino years)

But fronts...

..dipping down.

Close up look ....

..."close in" means close to the coast.

Better to the N of the 24th latitude.

Something to watch....

...low, low expectations.

But would never say never!

I will say the GFS lit up X yesterday.

Showed a hurricane in about 13 days ...

...near FL coast aiming at Carolinas maybe.

I mean it's the GFS but hey wakes us up.

GFS vaguely quieter today tho... 

Today I'm "back to normal" and husband is feeling better at work. House is cleaned up. Making something with ground meat for dinner, my internal food muse has not yet told me what I want to make so will see.

OMG incredible.

Didn't even taste like Greek Yogurt.

Creamy, perfect!

If you are ever there ... grab some.

Or whatever flavor you like.

I'm obviously dreaming on Fall.

Processing still all that went on this week in Bethel NY. Best yogurt I ever had from and still trying to catch up with weather and the world. It was actually nice in a way being vaguely off the grid, not listening to BREAKING NEWS or hearing news that's mostly agenda driven and not feeling upset I meant to watch a YT video or run some models.  But very back and happier that we are not high up in the 100s today as we were a few weeks back.

Have not watched it...
...but Caribbean is active geologically.

I have thoughts on that but another day.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X mostly weather.

elsewhere weather and what ever

Next up I need the beach.

I mean really need the beach.

Waiting for Summer tourists to leave ...

I'm a beach girl, raised near the water...

... allergic to tourists lol.

and loud crowds.

Just want to get my toes in the water...

Dina loves the water....

...she'll chase a line of storms for a pic.

Pic of her in NY taking pics :)

And I'll add it's my daughter Dina's...

...one of her favorite songs.

She blasts country in her car....
..driving through Brooklyn.

So going with this song.....

Know one of the best pics I ever got in a storm...

..was with her chasing this line of storms in NYC.

She lived in Bayswater... JFK was shut down

The green color in the water was hail.

she said "mommy it's hailing we have to go"

indeed.........wild day and we ran.
so now you know ....

Back from Vacation at Yasgur's Farm (Woodstock Grounds) and Watching Genevieve (Beauty) in EPAC. El Nino in Charge. Watching Stalled Out Front for Long Shot

 

This really says it all!

Pacific busy in El Nino years...

...the Atlantic is not.

Look at that perfection!

Genevieve

a true beauty off the 2026 EPAC Hurricane Season.

This loop tells the whole story!

EPAC has Major Canes....

...the Atlantic has nothing.

You can follow the influence of El Nino by looking at the bottom left of the loop above.  Moisture flows up into Genevieve...then up into Mexico and the SW (it's awefully hot & humid in Colorado and feels more like Miami than the beautiful weather they usually have in the Summer. Then that takes an right turn and feeds into the next system. Hot record breaking heat out West. Drought is the signature in some areas from El Nino and yet in the East there is a building, Nor'easter that's going to take over the weather news this coming week. Cooler air will filter into Virgnina and North Carolina if all goes well and I'm praying that verifies.

Not saying there is no moisture.

There's an old wave in the SW Carib...

...there is also shear.

And an old front draped across Florida..

East Gulf has parts of it.

To the East of Florida has more of it.

Cannot rule out an attempt to spin...

...but low confidence.

As for where I have been....

...it was a secret until it wasn't.

Stunning weather and cool air.

Friends of my daughter and music.

Good food.

I danced a lot............

Regarding tropics time will tell...

...as for me back from the Farm.

Yasgar's Farm aka Woodstock

Never had that on my bucket list...

...but my daughter does the Festival Scene.

She does the Art and art programs.

She's known to travel ...

Rainbow .. PSF Gatherings.

I saw mountains.

Mountain Lakes

Winding hilly roads....

... cool air!

Low humidity!

I went as she was remarrying her ex-husband

I even camped out (in a big RV)

Epic event really.... 

old pics from previous festivals... 

...so I get the idea.

.. 

Interesting mix of all types.

You know the saying...

..takes all types.

Old but you get the idea.

Definitely not my jam...

...but my daughter Dina's jam.

See video below....to get a clue.

(music campsite shown there... few years ago)

So I walked my daughter down the ....Trail.

after riding a tram to the tent..then the trail.

Lipa Schmeltzer a huge star in some circles... 

performed the wedding with some Rabbi ...

That's me in my long brown silky dress...

blurry water color memories...

:) 

Lipa watching us walk in...

...her friends watching.

Ps no one knew the star singer was there...

talk on surprises.

No one knew they were getting remarried there.

They've spent many a festival together with friends.

So that's where I have been!

below he sings a song "Believe in a Miracle"

So I'm believing in a miracle....

...hope the 2nd time is the charm for them.

Life goes on .... now I'm back in Raleigh.

Will update tomorrow.

Back to my routine.

BobbiStorm

Do you believe in miracles?

I try to... 

I believe in dancing :)

I do believe we will have more named storms.

Today I'm processing it all and relaxing :)

Bertha Makes landfall Twice!

Bertha actually had impacts 

on many beaches….

So first off on the road and meant to post but didn’t. So just posting now to say Arthur made landfall and Bertha made landfall! Both did Texas. True both were early July storms. The 2 for 2 so far…Gulf is the friendliest place for tropical development during El Niño. And as I’ve said numerous times close in development often means landfall! 

Mother Nature seems to like Texas this year….

Any additional Texas Tropical Tourists could be way stronger so let’s hope for the sake of Texas that doesn’t happen. 

Also I’m going where phone signals are weak and I may be off the grid til Sunday. 🙏🙏🙏 I’m wrong but it’s actually nice to get away from the crazy Carolina and Florida heat this trip. I got out at à 7-11 and the air was dry and almost cool!! It was awesome!!

Will talk on it in the next blog. A bit of a secret because it’s not my secret it’s not my secret to tell!

Sometimes you have to go out your comfort zone. Unlike Bertha that tried to hold on like a child in a pool afraid to leave the side of the pool afraid of the deep! 

Being in a weather community online is awesome and allows me stay in touch with what’s happening when I get wifi!

It should be quiet in the tropics for next week or so…. unless a surprise pops up 🤷‍♀️ 

Will update some time Sunday 

Bertha apparently wanted to die and be buried in Texas! seems she got her wish…

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm 

Bertha Makes Landfafll as a Tropical Storm in St. Bernard Parish Louisiana ....Texas Next Up on Her BINGO Card!

Where is that you may be wondering....

 

That part of Loisiana that sticks out into the Gulf

It's 5 miles from New Orleans.

This image did me in.

Panama City, FL

It's been a long day...

....long 48 hours.

I needed this laugh.

It WAS gusty...

Nuff Said.

Bertha is extremely resilient...

Views of satellite imagery

From www.spaghettimodels.com off course

I'll be honest again I gotta go. Things to do. Things to pack. Things to think on and figure out so won't be doing much more coverage other than an update in the morning. It is what it is and it was and is pretty feisty for a misaligned July Tropical Storm. Made landfall in the USA that goes on the books and I would not be surprised if this is a harbinger of things to come in this part of the world. If something is going to form it usually does in the Gulf close in during a strong El Nino!

Anyway all is good. Sometimes you have to go outside your comfort zone for someone else and the good of the all vs my BINGO Card. And, no I am not going to Pawley's Island or Myrtle Beach but hopefully later this summer as the tourists begin to go home and it's semi quiet again. 

I'll update in the morning. Watch out Texas, Bertha has you in her traveling plans! Give her a good ole Texas welcome! Be glad this is not a real Hurricane!

****

Noon 

Be aware I said online many times.

Bertha as a real storm.. 

...probablhy would not make it past

Cameron, Louisiana 

Remnants would go W towards Texas.

NHC shows that...

..tho they keep a S by Texas Coast.

That could happen...

IF

Center relocated to the strong convection

aka Blob

I'll be honest I have really enjoyed Bertha

Being very honest here. It's been difficult watching the ongoing discussion regarding Bertha as it's been a total disconnect with the reality of the situation. Early tropical storms in July in the Gulf are always wild cards with the possibility of intensification, but generally they unravel with their many parts. This is the way tropical storms in July behave that have competing centers or convective blobs far from the center or a tilted center and Bertha has had a clear cut center that spinned beautifully but it has been tilted in some levels of the atmosphere. This happens often, it's why so many tend to look "butt ugly" as shear shoves the convection away from the center while dry air tries to finish it off and yet in this case Bertha persevered and managed to do what she was going to do all along.

Models varied on the end game and some insisted it was going to Texas as a big storm and others early on, originally said it would pull North towards the trough and then showed it moving up through Alabama/Georgia headed towards the Carolinas bringing rain...or offshore depending on the timing of the trough. Timing of troughs in July (cold fronts) is not for beginners.  Then the  model shifts began racing off West towards Texas. Then showed it sliding along the coast and dipping down a bit. In truth many models were right and at the same time actually as some seem to latch onto one part of Bertha and others the other parts. And many times when the stronger center crosses the finish line the "energy" gets shifted to a competing center or strong area of convection like that football play where the ball gets passed back and forth and sometimes someone scores a touchdown and other times everyone collides and game over.

As we often explain before a winter storm in the Carolinas ...the atmosphere has many layers. I think it's Stephanie Abram who compares a possible ICE Storm to a big cheeseburger that has the bun, mayo, ketchup, a tomato, a burger, cheese, pickle, lettuce, onion and the bun. Let's go with that visual in your mind. But hopefully if you stacked your burger just right it doesn't fall apart when you bite into it. With July tropical storms there are many moving parts, nothing is static like it would be if this had intensified into a strong early season hurricane with all the parts vertically aligned. 

The basic forecast verifies, it is offshore (winds finally kicked up in Pensacola Beach) and edging near Gulfport and Biloxi on it's way towards New Orleans.... off shore mostly and sliding West while it's other part the main center is balancing one part over land inland and one part out over the water still. But there is little weather associated with the official center of Bertha today, some squalls, some wind but we will see in real time what really is happening.

This is not a hurricane. Upper Level Lows that form into Tropical Storms, especially in July, often are tilted and one center becomes the ghost center and yet the strong convection that was displaced due to the wind shear and dry air is still down over very hot water and still a tropical weather threat wherever it goes.

my son was involved designing wind.art

a precursor to Earthnull

talked endlessly on how it works.

I know how it works.

Same concept

and how we use Windy.com often.

Note how much of the top part of Bertha

Is up over land.

how much is down below.

Earthnull allows us to see different layers

in the atmosphere it is awesome!

When you go to windy.com and look at the rain filter you will see rain over Texas on Thursday, off the coast after it slid to the South of most of Louisiana and when you switch to the wind filter there's no real strong center just some wind. This is typical of July with Gulf Tropical Storms. They are far from perfect, but they can be rain makers, weather producers and have their own dangers. More so as it's NOT a Cat 1 or Cat 2 it's just a rainy day at the beach and people go out and do things they would do if this was Hurricane Bertha bashing Texas beach towns and on the move inland.  Unless a new center forms and takes over.  There was a play made into a movie Three Faces of Eve ... we have two faces of Bertha and one looking down from the North.

Woke up this morning and saw this.

DaBuh and I see faces.

It's some odd gift we have....

...creative ppl see things others do not.

We have the blob looking kind of organized.

Headed to Texas....

(yes that's a blob currently)

Old center being tracked....

then we have this....

...to the North pulling on Bertha.

Because I do have a degree in English.

And studied drama heavily.

Into plays and musicals.

I saw this.

I know it's not a Musical Comedy....

Again  not a musical comedy...

...but a great musical.

Back to Hurricane History.

Tropical Storm History here.

Michael Watkins who I have followed forever..

across many platforms

is awesome.

This post tells it all.

Saw this coming, it was evident all day yesterday this was happening as I watch the water vapor and visible imagery and know Hurricane History which includes wonky July close in Gulf Tropical Storms. I made a joke online not tagging @iCyclone but saying Josh that it was obvious that BERTHA as we knew her was NOT going to Texas would probably cough up onto Highway 90 near his Hurricane House as if Mother Nature is mocking him. Good thing this did not become a mean August or September hurricane, but I will add in some years patterns remain and close in is where it is at during El Nino so who knows what the rest of 2026 will bring....... 

Zoom Earth below...

Tracking the old center of Bertha

straddling the coastline just offshore

The BIG BLOB remains below.

Forecast is West Bound and Down....

Texas in the cross hairs

But what will be?

The mystery may not be over.

I have held my thoughts for the last two days as I did not want to muddy the forecast or picture or say things that the NHC was not saying until recently and online meteorologists are trying to explain what happened (doing a good job I'll add) and we have a ghost center, a big blob and someone could end up with a whole lotta weather.  NHC on it. NWS watching it. 

Original models verified in some ways as some energy is moving up towards the diving front that is actually not diving but moving slower than forecast because ITS JULY and the Carolinas and parts of VA are due for flooding rains. I may or may not be here. I may be on the road. Remember I am a Gypsy after all and you just never know with me what will be or where I will be. I owe ya all for that sad, depressing Dream song but it applies if you know the lyrics it even mentions "storm" so stay tuned. I'll update later tonight most likely or first thing in the morning.

The NHC did a good job with a difficult set up and a messy, misaligned July tropical storm that was tilted on mid levels and we will see what August brings. August is not so far away down the tropical road.

Besos BobbiStorm

I'm Southern.

I love comedies and laughing.

I love this movie.

Theme song for Bertha and her blob today

And aside from being a writer ...

..... I am at heart always

a dancer

Love Shakira :)

Excuse any typos

My laptop is being wonky

And I have a whole lot going on here.

60 MPH TS Bertha Close to the Coast moving NNW deviating N of the Forecats Track" (Just a bit)

 

Cone above.

Facts below.

Barometric pressure is 995 MB

29.39 inches.

This has really wound up and deepened.

Excellent image below from www.flhurricane.com 

Waited til the 2 PM before posting.

Mind you when I say "deepened"

I kept very low expectations....

...so it's exceeded my low expectations.

However.............

I felt IF it survived....

...it would find a way to thrive

Been a long day for me personally as there is a lot going on and if I was a developing tropical storm I'd say soon it's gonna rapidly intensify and my life is gonna get even crazier. So I've been watching Bertha, watching loops, listening to TWC, Fox Weather, Weather Nation (old school style to drone out the naysayers online who didn't think this would ever become a TS let alone this strong) and watching Bertha on my phone on Wxr Apps set to beach towns in FL so I can see the bands coming ashore while many online argue off it really is a tropical storm and whether it will get deep into West Texas. As my grandma would say "Lord have mercy" there is no end to every arm chair meteorologist who has an Aunt who is a weather psychic on Tic Toc! See the image below. This is a healthy tropical storm with an assymetrical appearance as the NHC forecast it would be.

This is a rather healthy tropical storm....

...for early July close in to the coast in the Gulf

in an El Nino Year.

It's about as good as it gets.

Against all the odds....

...that little ULL that wouldn't die.

Survived.

Got a name.

60 MPH Tropical Storm.

If you're not gonna be a Cat 3...

...be a cute Naked Storm

Love watching the spin.

You can see where it is going....

...you can see it spin.

Always had great spin.

Check out that spin.

Being bottom heavy the weather is to the South..

...tho there are some strong bands with squalls in FL

racing in across the beaches towards Tally.

Discussion addresses her appearance on visual imagery as I showed above where you can see the center of Bertha doing what it wants to do and moving along on her way. The Blob associated with Bertha is hanging out behind in the Gulf, keep an eye on that....just saying. Discussion says "Bertha has deviated North of the forecast track during the past several hours and the initial motion is NNW" indeed. I'd say who saw that coming but the answer would be me. It's less a surprise and more a reality as I have mentioned expect surprises and in general Bertha is following the general plan. I mean it hasn't raced off to the NNE.

I said yesterday I am not looking beyond Cameron Louisiana for track. Moisture connected with Bertha may get to Texas and parts may move more to the North depending on her timing, the flow the atmosphere how it actually evolves vs the forecast. I say that as forecasts are not set in stone.

How close does she center of Bertha...

...get to the coast.

Mobile. Pcola.

Gulfport. Biloxi.

Bay St Louis

New Orleans.

Looking upstream.... 

We have Bertha and it's blobby follower to it's West.

(my take on it)

the jet stream...the flow

looks to be dipping down a bit to the N of Bertha

Almost like it wants to get a close up view!

Will see what NHC says at 5 PM

As I said yesterday multiple times...

... multiple places

Think we should watch what Bertha does....

...everyone knows she's there lurking

let Bertha be Bertha

You know live and let live.

And when we see a pattern ...

..expect the pattern to continue some.

Or there could be surprises!

Besos BobbiStorm

From one B storm to another...