TS Fay in Atlantic. Strong Coastal Storm Off East Coast... Weather Impacting Carolinas North Today. Some Coastal Flooding in VA. Where Does IT Go & Is Gonzalo Forming by African Wave?
A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Yes it's the GFS but date is 9/30/26
Staying in September today.
How does this happen? Well at first we see something over Cuba tries to close off into a low. It moves up towards Florida keeping it weak. Once back over the Gulfstream which is hot it builds into a closed Low that moves up towards the OBX area. Not saying landfall is expected here but do think it's possible to have something offshore. I'm saying it's possible and more probable than close in. This same run showed a Low near the islands off Africa and a day or so out poof it was gone. That's probably, in line with the reality of 2026 that shows ever Azore Lows and possible Subtropicals couldn't even get spinning. Close in has more of a chance. That also still goes for the Gulf where old dangling cold fronts linger too long over tropical waters that are crazy hot and basically untapped and that's energy that will (should anything from want to release that pent up energy) be a problem.
In truth there is nothing expected, but in El Nino years watch close in for unexpected things to pop up and I'll add especially late in the season when the water is crazy hot. A strong coldfront is forecast to get down past Tampa and I'm very skeptical of that. A stationary front maybe. A strong cold front? In Miami we don't even wish on cold fronts until late October and if we get lucky they show up in time for Halloween. But who knows, this has been a crazy year and yes I have said "crazy" multiple times for multiple reasons.
Tropics quiet. Well mostly quiet! Ok…. in the Atlantic Basin they are fairly quiet. There’s a 40% orange circle out in the middle of the Atlantic East of Bermuda that has a brief shot of stealing the name Fay. This is a candidate for subtropical or tropical in a favored area in strong El Niño years.
Waves run out of steam & those that survive get shredded by El Niño induced shear. That’s like shear on steroids! There’s a strong early season front that in theory would grab it and play with it. Behind the front there is high dry air so it’s in a safe spot now but down the road it gets sketchy for development. Being honest. There’s always that 1% chance something unusual happens in àn El Niño year.
Slim pickens this year. Long range models be flirting with something forming in the CAG. Some dream scenario where a list area of convection tries to hide from the Pacific & sneaks up into BOC. Sometimes in this set up … when enhanced by the MJO has a chance to try and grab on to a dipping early season front and catch a ride up towards Florida. That’s a general plot line for a screenplay that has not been written yet as we move closer to August. Based on history more than modeling.
Floyd in I think 1987 was that sort of weak Florida bound storm in a slow hurricane season. It aimed for the Keys and impacted Miami. Palm fronds fell down. Traffic signals swayed in the tropical breeze. Google it.
I’m kind of on vacation currently….
Doing a quick short catch up on the tropics as the NHC did give the area in the Atlantic the orange 🍊 chances.
I’ll add a song & update later
Just saying “hi” & “see ya later”
BobbiStorm relaxing in slightly cooler weather ànd lower humidity.
to be continued….