Subtropical Josephine in Atlantic. Maybe a Fish Storm But Coastal Impacts & Busy Shipping Lanes Blue Skies in Carolinas. Vacation to Greensboro at O Henry Hotel. Oh So Wonderful!

 

I love Zoom Earth.

It's awesome for a wide view.

You can move it around anywhere...

...and then zoom in!

It's not static or boring.

It puts U in control.

Of what you want to look at ....

...there's Josephine.

The yellow area with 10% is highlighted.

And check out that wild low near England.

Ireland, Spain.

October gives us huge storms.

cold air there very noticeable...

Steals my attention ....actually!

NHC below.

Josephine is forecast to hit the road....

... it's a long road.

I also love the Interactive Cone.

Shows time stamps well.

You can zoom in.

There's a pattern here ...notice.

Still forecast to have 80 MPH winds.

Subtropical.

Strong impacts across a wide area.

Look how tight those isobars are....

far from the center.

Still slamming the beaches by us...

Love this site that shows wave heights.

Well shows a lot but also shows them.

Beware at the beaches ....

...even as Josephine waves goodbye!

Now let's talk about Fish Storms.

Josie is a Fish Sorm to many.

True Confessions:
I had a friend online years back. They had a job working with ships at sea....and they worried on the storms that endangered the shipping lanes and those big ships that needed to beware of big ocean storms known by many as FISH STORMS! They'd remind people just because there are not islands in the track, that doesn't mean there are not people on ships at sea in the shipping lanes. And, they are correct there are dangers even in the path of what many perceive as unimportant "fish storms" so keep that in mind.

The NHC and it's many sister and brother departments take into consideration things such as ships at sea, people onland far from a huge Subtropical and they forecast as they see fit. In every year, busy or slow, there are early and late season storms such as Josephine. 

That's a whole lot of shipping lanes....
..in the path of Josephine.

Keep that in mind.

Otherwise the weather is oh my gosh awesome.
Rather cool nights..... cold at 5 AM!
Blue skies. Bright sunshine.
Warming up to 73 degrees.
Woke up to 39 degrees.

Pick your favorite hour ;)

I'm back now after being away for two days on mini vacation up in Greensboro at the beautiful, amazing, awesome O Henry Hotel. Words really do not... cannot convey the wonders you see there with attention to detail, their pleasant staff and their many ways to spend time from tea time to late night cocktails and everything in between. Considering one of my degrees is in English.... it did have me at it's name alone and worth knowing they have a colleciton of his stories in each suite a present from the hotel itself. Floral arrangements and seasonal decor. Being it was the week of the High Point Funiture Mart Show up the road, and no I didn't go we were there as my husband had a seminar there. I killed some time wisely in the patio outside the restaurant and the bar sipping a new age Old Fashioned, enjoying the breeze and conversation with other guests and Jared who works at the restaurant there. Fall fully in the air and pumpkins on the breakfast cart. Also, they have the best music. It's that combination of old classics and modern melodies that anyone can enjoy. I heard this song and it made me smile, as a good friend always loved this song and the skies were indeed oh my gosh so blue.

A trip there is definitely worth the time and it takes you back in time to when a night at a hotel was an experience to remember vs a place to crash and get some sleep on a business trip! Linger, lounge, take a bath and enjoy. Wander the gardens. Sit in the lobby. Smile. Breathe in... breathe out. 

Sweet Dreams

Autumn

Fall 

or

Winter

Choose your dreams wisely!

BobbiStorm

Subtropical Storm Josephine Forms Off the East Coast. NHC Forecasts Possible Hurricane Force Winds. New Yellow Area in Atlantic.

 

This became apparent today ..... as some of the most conservative meterologists pointed out and explained why it looked like a Subtropical. This is not a hype game, it's what a Subtropical is and a very typical October Subtropical Storm that years back would have been described as a Hurricane or Gale before we had an NHC. Journals, old style blogs, carefully recorded details of the off shore storm and how much flooding the beaches had as well as which trees had damage. They meticulously listed which ships went missing or washed up on a beach. October storms in this region are nothing to laugh off. And, often they do much damage along the coast before they get a name from the NHC while on their way out to sea somewhere else. That said many places along the coastline are in Wind Probs for wind probabilities and people in the cities shown below should pay attention to their local NWS and weather experts! Again trees have leaves on them and are more likely to come down in areas getting blasted by the offshore storm. 

Note Cape Race Newfoundland to the North and to the South Ocean City Maryland are in the wind probabilities . In between you have JFK Airport and most of New England. Again this is a coastal Storm on it's way out to sea, but much damage can still be made from such storms.... especially as this one has been around for days in formation stages building up it's energy. It's a lot of weather and wind even if "just a Subtropical" so keep that in mind.

Look fast.

The sun is setting 

on Josephine.

You can see the center.

You can see how large it is....

...and that IS the signature

of Subtropical Storms.

NHC discussion 

80 MPH is possible.

Earthnull shows her size.

When I say size I mean influence.

From New England to the Carolinas.

The beaches are churned up.

The wind is blowing.

Ships at sea ...

...need to pay close attention.

Looks like a Rorschach test

I see a Giraffe personally.

That's it. Just got back from a Mini Vacation up the road to Greensboro where my husband had a Seminar at the O Henry Hotel ....  one of the most beautiful, well run hotels anywhere. The suites are perfect, the bathrooms are incredible (yes this really matters if you have ever been there) and yes the bar, the restaurants, the Afternoon Tea is the height of Southern perfection. Honest. Love it. And, saw some leaves beginning to turn here and there as we drove back on the back roads so I could see the real Carolina. Pulling into Raleigh the NHC named Josephine. Perfect timing.

We all need to get away sometimes. I really needed it. 

That's it ...will update tomorrow.

But .......worth remembering that area to the SE of Josephine stole my attention all day. Time will tell. It could go out to sea, but it could also get a name. Time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Heard this while sipping a drink....

Old Fashioned made New Fashioned.

An old favorite.... 

the music feed had many of my favorite songs.

I hadn't heard in a long, long time.

Coastal Storm... Subtropical Josephine? Definite Maybe. Have to Just Keep Watching. 40% Orange from NHC Currently.

The areas off the East Coast has a 40% Orange chance given to it by the NHC It could become a Subtropical Storm if so it would be Subtropical Josephine. This is the right area for such a storm, right time of year and an accurate name for a short lived system that's quite the storm and not going anywhere fast. Though eventually it pulls out to sea. Currently, it's not an Invest even. But there's a lot of talk among meteorologists and weather people. And, it's something to talk about.

It's not like you have to look hard to find it.

Zoom in there's a little center there.

We will see.

Watched Bryan Norcross this afternoon.
I like to hear him weigh in.

He does not hype.

The fact that he went long on discussion...

...says something.

But he's not running the NHC

And its up to the NHC

to blink and say

It's worthy of naming it a Subtropical Storm 

Til then..........

...it's a coastal low

Possibly called a Nor'easter.

If it gets a name.

It'll be Josephine.

Til then lots of dramatic imagery.

Will update if NHC blinks in any way.

More than 40%

Speaking of 40s.

It was 41 degrees this morning.

Love it.

Doesn't get much better than that here.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

NHC Blinks! Weighing In in the Coastal Low. Nor'easter. Maybe Subtropical. Regardless..... Yellow Circle 30%

 

8 PM Saturday Night.

Words matter so straight from the source.

"Strong Non-Tropical Low Pressure area"

"Subtropical possible"

"Move slowly erratically"

REGARDLESS..........

High Winds

Coastal Flooding

Dangerous Surf

(check local Warnings)

that's what they said.

EURO Monday 8 PM

(lots of coastal erosion)

GFS Monday same time.

Wednesday EURO...still there.

The cold front went through early, lots of rain, wild wind and blessedly wonderful cool to cold air streaming through faster than originally forecast by most. About what I expected as it seemed to be on the move Friday late in the day. Woke up to rain, steady rain and the curtain facing North in the bedroom was blowing like a sail in the wind. Smiled. Rain stopped near Noon, cold air blowing and the tall pine trees were dancing wildly, weaving back and forth in the wind. Just as I hoped. Won't lie, it's chilly and I should either turn the ceiling fan down or shut the window some or just dig out some warm winter pajamas. :)

Heard mandatory evacuations on OBX and Ocracoke for tourists. Ferries not going to be working. People on the Banks being told to expectd to be stranded some for a few days. Pay attention to watches, warning and hunker down. This means you most likely will see more homes lose battles with the waves expected to pound the beaches for a part of the week. Time will tell and we will see how long it moves erratically or moves up the coast.

I'll do a full update Sunday AM. This is just to say that NHC finally weighed in. Good, it elevates attention and good to have NHC's thoughts on the matter.

Watching the Miami Hurricanes play FSU ... a game with a strong rivalry and FSU is more motivated than most teams to play hard and Currently giving the Canes a run for their money. Go Canes...

Besos BobbiStorm

Love this song.

Should go to Colorado soon.

We'll see.

It's 65 in Denver
48 in Raleigh

Go figure :)

Fall is on the Way. Not Fake Fall but a Strong Cold Front. A Coastal Storm May Be Forming.... NHC Says Nada Nothing ... NOAA Maps Show a Possible Gale off Carolina Coast. Questions....

 

1st off NHC says nothing happening in Atlantic.

Yes and no.

They aren't into Subtropical or Hybrids...

...unless they are halfway across the Atlantic

high up and already smelling

like dead fish

as they upgraded after they were stronger.

Just being honest.

You can't have it both ways.

A little consistency goes along ways...

...when it comes to public trust.

Not ignoring this area.

One of a few possible areas of convection.

Does it lift up towards the Front?

There's also a small area in the W Gulf

Good WV Loop.

Nothing like black and white.

You have moisture in the Gulf...
sort of in a cradle like area.

then you have the Yucatan area.

To the North you can see the FRONT

ready to dive down thru the South

(not really deep Florida but panhandle)

But zooms thru the Carolinas.

(God Bless)

Amazingly in MDR

3 little tropical waves westbound.

They obviously didn't get the memo!

At some point the front dies out...

..where when could be interesting.

72 hours from Friday 

We have a stalled out front.

Stationary across S FL

Links up to the "possible gale"

Moisture in Carib will be sucked up...

...by that frontal boundary

(most likely) 

Does a Low form off of Carolinas.

Some say it forms & drops anchor

Lots of questions on how this plays out.

Long range shows...

The front holds strong.

What could go wrong?

7 day Rain Forecast.

That's a strong offshore rainfall

Coastal beach rain.

Does something form?

We will see in real time.

If 2 PM changes ...

...doubt it.

I'll upgrade if NHC blinks.

Either way 

"we got weather"

Not Fake Fall in Raleigh

But FALL ...

...beautiful fall.

Have a good weekend.

If u live where that front will be...

...on the move fast.

Watch out for wild weather.

Strong Winds!

Strong Front.

Til it goes Stationary.

Low expectations

But not ignoring the obvious.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

nice video of songs...
....and fall imagery

Choose your mood... Choose wisely ;)

Coastal Storm Brewing? Or ??? Subtropical? Is an October Storm Surprise Brewing ???

 

It's a conundrum .... 
... models seeing possibilities.

The busy NHC ...

...sees nothing.

Well not yet anyway,

Let's look at the set up.

Well, tropics today.

It's a complicated year and nothing is normal. That said, this is a set up that can produce a system of some kind. It can look tropical, Subtropical and then turn tropical or it could be written off as a Coastal Low as seems NHC this year likes to do that. At 2 PM they didn't blink, even though excellent well established meteorologists have mentioned it both online and on air. I waited til 2 PM just in case. 

You see a cluster of convection brewing down in the Caribbean seeming to lift some. Where does it go? It's to the South of a strong, high pressure ridge. It's 89 degrees as I type this ...we tired a record from 1985 and the temperature kept climbing. I'm sorry but I am done with fake fall and a never ending summer so let's hope this is the last day in the high 80s, not to mention 90 degrees. And there's a front that should move down .... then what? Usually the best way to get rid of an unwanted "never ending summer' is to have a tropical like event move North up into the Northern Latitudes and push down cold air. 

Please make it stop.

We go round & round.

Cool weather...

then Hot Weather.

Then Cold Weather

Then Hot Weather.

Make it stop please.

Coastal Cruiser may do the trick!

1985 had 3 coastal cruisers in late September into October. Just something I noticed recently so maybe we get a named storm or just a "Coastal Cruiser" ... time will tell. 

And, some models show this does odd wonky October Surprise like moves with scenarios where it loops.  

We are getting way to ahead of ourselves. NHC hasn't said much, busy ya know. Yet some NOAA maps show a Low somewhere.

Hmnnn.

Know some models show surprises too.

Not just cold weather... 

...maybe snow in the NC mountains?

Ya never know...

..in an uncommon set up.

What will go...

BOO!

Might surprise us!!

:) 

Sweet snowy or tropical dreams,

You make the choice!

Besos BobbiStorm

Gotta switch songs up ya know ;)

NHC Says Nothing For 7 Days. Long Range Apps say Maybe Something on the 8th Day Fronts Always Up the Ante... Remember That.

 

But maybe on the 8th Day.......

True story I deleted yesterday's post ....by accident. Every October my eyes drive me crazy. Drops only help for a little while and allergy meds that work make me sleepy. So then I take a Nespresso with the allergy meds to counteract the spacey effects of the allergy meds that work and then.........I'm slightly jittery and in a mood cause I just had super caffeine from the delicious Nespresso and well if you know you know. My father had Hay Fever growing up in New York City. That in itself to me as a child in Miami seemed odd "I mean they have hay in New York City??" and then he moved to Florida and no more Hay Fever ... he'd say. I moved to North Carolina and "ohhhhhhh now I get the Hay Fever" as ragweed and I do not get along. And, when we lose "fake Fall" and move back into "feels like Summer" my hay fever kicks back in and I delete the wrong post. It wasn't such a big post. It basically said nothing is supposedly forming in a while in the Atlantic. And, that I knew the NHC would drop the yellow circle 20% by Africa as I could tell they weren't so into it and they were not and dropped it.

But Steve, on old friend, on X

Woke me up faster then Nespresso

That's my neck of the woods.

A while ago I told a few friends I just want something small off the OBX coast or near Wilmington NC so I can run over and play in the waves of an offshore storm (I'll even take an Invest in 2026) but nothing has been showing. This morning social media is talking on very long range possibilities. Above is by my favorite beach actually. Below Steve shows the EURO is playing a long too.

That would work.

Up the waves.

I'd feel the breeze.

We'll see.

I'll add Dabuh be doing his art work again.

Singling multiple songs ;) :) 

And yeah 

Note

You gotta always watch the 2nd Image...

Woke me up better than Nespresso.

And daughter brought me some ...

...delicous Maple Pecan ones

when she was in town. 

Ya know.

It's October.....

...getting deeper into October.

The list is long....

..for strange storm

That comes along

And go:

BOO!!! 

Florida
Carolinas
NY & NJ 

they know what I mean.

So it's not over

til November 30th.

IYKYK

Also until you have real fronts on the move, you got not much to work with as fronts up the ante in the "will it hit me" or "will the front pick it up and save me" song singing in your head. There's a reason the Hurricane Seasons goes from June 1st (even tho few form them) until November 30th (rare but happens) and it's a good reason if you've ever been stung by a storm that starts tropical and ends up like a cold front. Late Autumn storms surprises you when you aren't looking. So stay tuned.

Lastly.......... how many Weather Apps do you have on your phone? How many do you actually use? Yes, I have more Weather Apps than Shopping Apps. Which ones do I actually use? Sephora. Ulta sometimes. Nordstrom also for Make Up. Amazon for everything.  Weather Apps I won't say which as I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings here. But my biggest problem is they all try to do the same thing, add complex features or change the color scheme or rearrange things and  then...we end up using the same few over and over. Some call to us, some do not but some have that one feature we love. And, often I want a simple App. Just the basics. An App that resoates with me. An App that gives me what I want fast and nothing more. Life is fast paced in 2026 and truth is no one has time. We all be on the Express Train in a rush to get somewhere. Sometimes ya gotta just take some time to just type, listen to music and be jammin' and that's what I'm doing today. I'm on my Staycation before I go on Vacation, resting up from my kid's vacation to Raleigh this past week. Awesomeness but Mommy wants a Staycation today. 

@DHTheWeatherNut 

on X

works in his region.

I'm a long term follower, he's a great source or weather info always. Will see what I think in real time. I had a Weather App that I liked because it was simple, cute and 1 2 3 easy and fast for when I just wanted "basic" info vs a deep dive when I use my mother favorite Apps. They changed it to make it "fancy" and now it's annoying and still not as good as the complicated awesome Apps I'd use if I wanted "fancy" and that's my thoughts on Apps. Ps Sephora App is way better than Ulta just saying...being honest. Why? Sephora takes you where you want to go and Ulta takes you all over the place and back and not where you want to go. Apps like weather is perspective based ...some of us love to play at the beach taking photos and watching sea foam fly in the wind and others do not. Some of us love snow, some of us don't. Like music .... but I have eclectic tastes in music as in everything else.  And, let's me real a whole bunch of us are using our favorite AI to see curiously how they compare to the models and note they update FASTER than the GFS and EURO. Welcome to 2026 ....truly life in the fast lane!

This is my weather in Raleigh the next week.

Pick a day you can get anything you want

Carolina Weather Buffet

Flip flops & Boots 

in the same week.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

I'll Updated tomorrow.

Trying to get back in a routine.

Sorry if I missed any typos.

All I need is one strong front.

Frost... and my hay fever problems

Go away until next year!

My doctor said:

"try and stay offline"

Oh... no that's not happening.

Well if he rented me a cottage

on the beach in Pawley's Island

Yes maybe offline more ;)

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

It's supposed to be 88 today.

I'll be Jammin pretending...

I'm down in Key West

Or somewhere

Anywhere

but here.

Ps remember models change fast.

Like u blink & they change.

That's why I prefer jammin'...

...watching satellite imagery.

Taking it one day at a time.

One song at a time.

So should you... or not.