Updated 8 PM Invest 92L & 93L Tagged. New Wave on Block Fresh off of Africa 20% Yellow...92L has 80% Red in the 7 Day. 60% in the 2 Day. N ATL Invest 40% ...But Hey It's Got an Invest ... NHC Pulls Plug on Old Lead Wave That Juiced Up the Path for Invest 92L

92L: 80% in days-60% in 2 days!

It's now the "old wave" 92L

New Wave off Africa 20% in 7 days!

Our Mid Atlantic cruiser is now orange

and it's been upgraded to 40% chances

(do it FAST it has a small window)

Are we busy enough?

???? 

Well with things to watch?

C name still waiting to be used.

Best signature so far today!

92L Are you going to be Cristobal

or???

such tropical drama.

This has always been my favorite Jimmy CD and I have a lot of them. It's a very Miami song, lots of hidden clues to Miami History and just Jimmy having fun. Gotta love someone who knows how to have fun. Don't steal the Orange Bowl Queen ;) Indeed........been a day in many ways so gonna take a long hot bath ....or shower.........or both!!  ;) Love this song, love the whole CD.

***

The red, round ball with yellow around it ...
...up high in the middle of this image is 93L.

Who saw that coming you may ask?

I mentioned this area on Friday as possibly suspect.

Low chances but high enough NHC tagged it 93L

And to the bottom right of the image...

...way down low.

Is 92L in the wave train off Africa.

There's a new contestant leaving Africa today.

92L the Invest we have been waiting on...

Models are below for 92L

Starting with 92L the African Wave that is now Westbound in the Atlantic battling it's way through dry air and eventual shear down the road. These are early models, first set to be up and there will be more information later. I wanted to get this up so we can see where we are now, and look back tomorrow and compare what we were thinking on Tuesday. 92L is Westbound, rolling along and the sun has already set on it. 

93L is what we call in the Subtropics.

Yes they can get a name.

From Tropical Tidbits!

East bound and headed out to sea... 

Sometimes a system such as this can impact the general pattern out in the Atlantic. I'll talk on this tomorrow IF this is a possibility. People have spoken on a stagnant pattern and often Mother Nature thows a surprise at us ...especially in El Nino Years. So stay tuned.

The Mimic is so beautiful.

It's literally at times an Artist's Muse

93L could pass 92L Eastbound

So we'd have an Invest up above..

..and an Invest down below.

Tomorrow is Eclipse Day.

The double blue line is totality.

The Green line won't see much...

...but small part of the sun may hide.

Stay tuned!

Will update at 8 PM 
with new info

Thanks for being here.

Been a long day for me.

Lots off my mind at times.

Restless... I was born restless.

Yet in the hot Carolina Summer....

I take it easy and wait for FALL

Keep reading if you did not from the blog earlier.

Bonus song today.

****

11 AM below

Using this graphic Eric Burris put up on X as it's easy to read, see and tells the story very well.  NHC basically pulling the plug on the lead wave. And, yet the lead wave was never really expected to develop, the lead wave provided a gas line of moisture that allowed the stronger, big wave behind it at 70% Red to get to Red status. Waves need a moist environment to develop, and they need warm water more on that later. With tons of SAL (Saharan Dust) in the atmosphere that can choke out a good wave, unless the wave before it has left a battery pack so to speak of moisture for the 2nd wave to get further to the West closer to warmer water and stay alive and in the race.

BayNews9 awesome page.

The road out ahead of our RED wave..

...has been juiced up by the old wave.

it's a constant process.

Think of this as a good blocker who is blocking for a great running back in Football. The Running Back becomes famous, rarely does the blocker though sometimes. The blocker doing his job, guarantees the RB can take off and pick up yardage and the coveted First Down. Also when there is SAL the same thing happens sometimes with early waves that try and plough though the SAL, give it up to the dust and coughing, sputter away into nowhere land. The wave behind it has more breathing room to make a run or the roses so to speak or a touchdown  (Landfall) so pay attention to the whole ballet of satellite imagery, don't just stare at the AOI now currently 70% Red. And, speaking of RED let's look at SAL maps showing where the Sahran Dust is currently.

The areas out ahead of our wave where the Red

...in punctuated by dark colors is where a wave busted thru.

Red below means SAL, says STOP!

SAL is the blocker in football.

Wider view shows the bigger story.

Main basic points to remember...

..remember today and every day.

Whenever we have a 70% chance of development..

..especially in El Nino year or in SAL season this is true.

SAL lightens usually in September.

That is why September is Prime Time in the tropics.

Well, one reason that ..more on water temps later.

Again Football

August is PreSeason
September is Prime Time.

So before rather than showing models that change on every run.. these facts need to be remembered.

1.  Nothing happens in a vacuum ...pay attention to the whole picture on satellite imagery.

2.  SAL is strong, though it has some lighter areas where waves went previously.

3.  Shear is there as well waiting for this wave that is taking it's time to become an Invest.

4.  Big waves take longer to pull together a coherent center.

5.  Without a coherent center models are stabs in the dark, trying hard to help guide us.

6.  Models offer suggestions and then they do it again later in the day.

7.  If a wave is dawdling it misses the time frame of the previous guidance models.

8.  If that happens the models begin to pull more to the South and get further West.

9.  IF the wave suddenly wraps fast* then next model runs may pull more to the North.

10. *Not easy to do battling shear and dry air and lower than perferred water temperatures.

11. Water in the MDR is still warming up and less warmth in the water slows development.

12. Take all models with a grain of sea salt and don't expect early models to totally verify. They do however show the general pattern, but they also evolve in real time. 

We are far from Prime Time in the tropics...

...and the water heats up more each day.

Why we worry this time of year "close in"

where the water is HOT!

Takes so many factors to get an actual named storm to develop, more so a real Hurricane and more so in an El Nino year ...especially one where the Canary Current that impacts that part of the Atlantic has been wonky.  So stay tuned, this is not a sprint, it's a marathon as a friend reminded me. It's also a bit of a hurdle race as the wave (if it becomes Cristobal) has to jump thru SAL, jump over shear and get to near where the water is warm and welcoming. Longer it takes to develop it gets further West, unless some huge cold front moves down fast allowing it to make a hard right to race off after it. Models below.

Mike showed this graphic this morning.

While showing all the models...

...AI etc - check out the look on his face :)

Like "oh that happened"

Could it go into the Islands?

Coulds are not off the table.

More likely over the top close by I think.

We will see soon nuff.

We are far from "there" yet.

Stay tuned.

Will have better info when NHC makes an Invest.

Will have better info when it's center is solid.

Add in Recon when it's time to fly in there.

IF NHC changes anything I'll update later today

Til then stay hydrated, have a good day.

Enjoy the music.... 

Be back later ...BobbiStorm

Love this song to dance to... 

...never gets old and always makes me dance.

60% Area of Interest Further Out... Closer in Lower Chances.

 

Waves

Tropical Waves.

That was IS looking healthy!

Models show development...

...more so 2nd wave with 60%

I'd think if we hit 70% 

NHC might make an Invest!

As always

El Nino nor No El Nino

There's shear at the entrance to the Carib

More yes, still same old story

Can it pull to the North ...wNw enough

To pull up over the Islands

Land around PR or to the NE 

and then what?

Keeping this short today. This is not a day to go long on speculation as much as to watch and wait in real time. I'll update later today IF NHC blinks, IF models hop on more than hop off. And, really I want to see what it does in real time on the satellite imagery, what it's got going there. IF it gets a good signature on Earthnull which it does not yet, but this was always forecast to be later in the week time wise for development.

Have a great day, BobbiStorm

It should be a TD at LEAST

so stay tuned.....

....ps not depressed

Just got things to do :)

Wave Train Busy Like Palmetto Expressway at Rush Hour. Which Survives? Which Thrives? How Will New AI Models Handle the Traffic? 2 Areas of Interest!!

Love Zoom Earth....

...shows the satellite imagery and areas of interest.

I still do not understand why NHC won't do this..

...but am sure they have their reasons.

You can see the SAL.

You can see the convection.

(always watch the water vapor with waves....)

Does a wave develop into a storm...

..that gets precariously close to OBX

Similar to the clouds out there today?

Somewhere between Bermuda and OBX?

I keep wondering on that...

...because of current pattern.

Mike is awesome with grids...

...isn't he?

That said this is very long range modeling. This is very, very long range modeling as forecasting that these waves might develop and end up close to the US coastline but not be a threat (as I have heard some say as if they have tropical psychic powers) as the reality is what we think fronts will or won't do this time year is not very reliable and all depends on how close ...how fast......how slow the models go and IF they are battling an Upper Level Low or other factors I'm not going into as this is already too long a run on sentence. Believing in a 10 day models with two possible systems close together this far out is like the world's longest run on sentence.

So going to take it slow, watch in real time, check the models and get on with my life today. The wave over Africa is delicious to watch from a distance on the satellite loops, it literally has a spin to it. But I am not obsessing. Let's see what we see tomorrow. Lots to watch suddenly and I'm taking it one day at a time, one wave at a time.

yes I know my fav hurricane season song

Yes I'm using it as a sound track as I loop....

 

There is so much I want to say but I'm not ready to say regarding the Wave Train of August 2026. Our two areas being watched by the NHC and the third wave waiting to join the party. It's a Conga line and haven't seen one in a while so I want to sit back and enjoy it. Once upon a time there were models. And, when I say models I mean usually the good one and the crappy one and the new one getting attention. Then we had an array of good models, but mostly talked on talked on the EURO vs the GFS. Now we have the AI models and there are a whole lot of them, so choose wisely. And, can't wait to see how well the new improved 2026 AI models do with a wave train that's as congested as the Palmetto Expressway at Rush Hour... if you know you know.

I love models. 

You know what I love more? I love watching satellite imagery and using other data to slice and dice a good wave train. I love the wide view of what is happening everywhere that the models see when they spit out conflicting data. I love chasing. I love being at the ocean preferably feeling the wind, the waves, and watching sea foam flying in the wind and even here inland in Raleigh the way we chased a line of wild storms by ISAIAS in 2020 talk about getting out into the world during the whole Covid mess. So never lose site of of these parts of the equation nor get lost in just one part of the drama.

I'll be honest. I am not rushing this. I am not obsessing nor freaking out. My thoughts are tempered by both El Nino and a good knowlege of Hurricane History. Don't rush it. Enjoy it. Savor it like coffee or sex or a good football game. I mean we are talking on models promising development on Friday. Note Friday is FIVE days away before we even get lift off for possible development. Pace yourself!

For the South Florida crowd...

Phil as always is awesome to follow.

Even if you don't live in S FL..

Currently my mind is here....

Interesting wave over Africa still.

Interesting, fantastic QB that played for Carolina..

...oh my goodness.

Time will tell...

Did y'all know Lynette Charles is one of my favorite people on TWC? Just putting it out there. She is smart, she is smooth, she is classy, she is on top of it all and does a great job showing the whole picture of weather on Sunday Morning. Love listening to friends on YouTube. I watch a lot of Fox Weather as they do a bang up job, less set in parameters that TWC tends to be, they show satellite imagery, radar they show the weather and even watch Weather Nation even though I'm not in Canada. Apps... are good, I watch them all ................. but currently pacing myself, enjoying the moments. Watching the way the sun hits my window decorations when it hits a certain height in the sky. I stand outside in the earning morning and feel how the balcony is cooler in the morning than it's been; drier before the heat heats up and the humidity that rules the day. I ponder what Autumn decoration I'll put up when I take the Summer stuff down because I'm Southern and we do that.

Stay tuned. Don't rush this..... take it slow, take it in parts and don't buy any 10 day out forecast and never rule out surprises in El Nino years.

Never. Stop. Chasing.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Always amazes me at times such as these I live in the Carolinas and have for a long time. I go to Miami often so sometimes I forget. So when I look at a wave train I look with one eye on Miami and the other eye on Raleigh Durham area. I really live here, go figure. Often debating how close it'll come to Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach ...even if it's curling away....  Enjoy the music, it tells a story with musical clues.

LOL

good movie....

Durham once upon a time.

New stadium is the only one I know.

Good restaurants, bars and music. 

I do not go to games in August.

Been there, done that... so hot.

Great song...

2 Waves off of Africa. Area Close in SE Coast Sliver of a Chance of Developing Offshore Storm. Where's Cristobal?

 

Wide view of the basin.

There's lots of convection off the SE Coast.

That's where models made a storm originally.

Good news........they got the location right.

They got the convection right.

Just no organized storm.

And, off the coast of Africa ...

..we have a new contestant.

I will say models are giving support...

... but will see how long that lasts.

So far NHC hasn't blinked much.

Close in it is amping up the storms.

S FL got really lucky with this one.

So did the Carolinas.

In any other year this might have been the one!

Well at least a named storm.

NOTE....some models try and develop this...

...forming up into something

And pulling off out to sea.

You never know...

...could get some ACE going.

For the ppl who need ACE.

Vs chasing.....tracking.

But worth mentioning it.

One is swimming.

Another one is behind that one still over land.

With all the SAL out there...

a big bulky set of moist waves.

have more of a chance

Or one juices up the way for the next.

ModelS are showing a lead wave stay low and dry to head into the Carib, again it didn't get the Memo. A wave behind it pulls more to the N of West ...wNw and could ride above the islands and shear and slide up into our part of the world though currently models curve it away from landfall. Way too far to even half believe in a model, when NHC blinks and puts up a yellow 10% circle we will discuss it in more depth. But there is a window opening that a storm could spin up, get a name and a bit of fame in this quiet 2026 El Nino Season.

Ps Panther's game last night was incredible. Love the QB, maybe this is a year for the underdog.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Updated CSU Report.... Keeps 1 Major Cane in Predictions ..... NHC Says Nada Next 7 Days... Models Teasing Development Soon.

Good call. Keep the 1 Major Cane possible.

Next name up Christobal.

Possibilities down the tropical road.
Low probabilities currently but stay tuned.

Great App always!

There's the candidates over Africa!

We will see tomorrow what the models show...
....getting closer to something vs nothing.

I spent a good part of the day yesterday cleaning and organizing in the closet. Staying busy rather than obsessing on the summer heat and the quiet tropics. I found old diaries of various kinds. Life, learning, hurricane season, etc. And, the page I opened up to was Hurricane Gordon. There's serendipity, a wonky storm in an El Nino Year! So posting here the a short entry from the hurricane diary from when I was younger and apparently giving my thoughts on life and Hurricanes. Haha I haven't changed much have I?  Sounds so young and "OMGosh" lol. Ironically I mentioned Gordon the other day and apparently I went long on Gordon in 1994. This morning my thoughts on Gordon show up so thought it was worth sharing.

"Tropical Storm Gordon came up from the Caribbean, made a circle around Cuba and now is going NNW parallel to the lorida coast. Occasionally we get a squall tho it's so windy-but it passes fast!"

I'm guessing I was here in the storm.

Suppose I thought it would just go out to sea.

Well, was I wrong.

But weather is locational....

...it was raining heavy we were on NE side.

Tropical Storm impacts recorded.

Early strange track.....
...eventually later track strange.

I lived about 3-4 blocks from the Atlantic Ocean, depends how you could Indian Creek on Miami Beach. After Andrew were were a bit camera shy about hurricanes, let them go somewhere else but be close enough to be able to go to the beach 3-4 blocks away and watch the waves and pray the ceiling didn't leak.  So gentle reminder that El Nino brings wonky tracks sometimes, and still delivers damage in El Nino years even when the "numbers" and "ACE" are suppressed. And, EPAC is busy beyond words.

Google AI below

2 very long lived storms in 1994

Alberto took 33 lives.

Gordon impacted Haiti, Cuba & Florida

and drove forecasters crazy

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm

Looking back at 1994 Summer Songs..

Sorry NOT showing Lion King songs......

What Does Music and Hurricanes Have in Common? What Goes Around Comes Around. Everything Old is New Again. Expect Surprises in El Nino Years

 

So the models backed away on development, and yet the moisture is still locked in place. But models show this blobby mess, concentrated Blobby rain  mass hits the same spot the models hit the other day. Currently I'm just watching the pattern, peeking at models but not expecting much til I see the pattern begin to pull together. 

Keep in mind the darker the berry the less the juice.

Well on this image.

Dark means dry, dry, dry.

Little pockets embedded in the red.

Small tropical waves.

And our huge GUMBY like moisture area.

That's juice off the SE/East Coast.

That said some models.........w

.....there is always that model

Sees possible development!

Will say the waves looking juicier.

That said they swim into dry air.

And shear as well so.......

...take those models with a teaspoon sea salt

But hey even Bryan looking at models.

It's August, we look. 

"August look out you must!"

yep models are modeling the waves.

But they hit shear and dry air.

Only area to really watch is close in.

Close in... Above Caribbean.

The reason I'm mentioning this video is that in El Nino years we sometimes get wonky, weird tracks and surprises happen more in El Nino years than regular years. Betsy in 1965 was one those storms that is the best example. Loved hearing Bryan Norcross discuss Betsy, a hurricane I have studied in great detail. Betsy was a looper! She made several loops. She stalled, she was all about drama. And despite the NHC going with a Carolina, a North Carolina track, she backtracked and turned SW...then stalled again then turned due West the way Andrew did and like Andrew she went West thru Miami and the Keys then went on to that typical 2nd target and slammed into Louisiana ......oh like Andrew did and it'll happen again like Katrina did. But know that in an El Nino Year development should be later when we normally see real development and know to expect surprises because we have fronts and when we do they sometimes slice thru and other times they stall out and things can change in the ever popular cone! Loops can happen anytime, but they love El Nino Years.

Not saying this will happen.

Just saying ... things get wonky in El Nino years.

Hurricane Betsy the Queen Looper!

Never count your Hurricane Seasons as dead...

...until it's November 30th!

Sweet Tropical Dreams or PSL Dreams.

August and platic pumpkins are on the shelves.

2026 be racing on through!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Long Ps with music and some thoughts.

Musical thoughts and personal thoughts.

I had to look up Summer songs 1965

Seems this was all the rage.

Herman's Hermits.

I post this as I have a pal....

...who loves to sing this song.

While driving.

So now you know what your parents

or grandparents were listening to...

...when Betsy burst through Miami.

Surprise!

That song probably played til the power went out.

Ps so next time someone asks you

"huh what's their name?"

Or winces at your music....

Know... 

Music rolls on in each generation.

My kids were there in Miami this weekend!

Ironically last week I was in NY

with my older"hippy" artist daughter ...

...at Woodstock grounds

Dina  remarried her ex husband...

...who is my son-in-law again (yay)

later a band played and she turned to me and said

This is "Zalmy's music" her youngest brother.

I laughed, she walked out into the woods.

I stayed inside dancing :)

Yep... 

What goes around comes around.

Storms such as Betsy 1965 in El Nno Years...

....show up again

1994 Hurricane Gordon

A looper that made the record books

What I am saying is.........

...while each year is unique

Music evolves, revolves

My son was in Chicago at his birthday party.

He loves Zeds Dead

Video o Lollapalooza above

Never laugh at music old or new...

...just move to it and dance.

This season will be slow but not totally dead!

And remember to dance to the music always!

Sway, play, have a good day!

August 2026! Models Teasing Tropical Trouble Off or On the SE Coast... Carolinas???

 

Gonna start here this afternoon.

you know the drill...

NHC Nothing for 7 days

you know the graphic by heart ...

When you make a major life move to a new area the one thing weather people do is look for the local experts. The ones who know that the funnel cloud seemed to have touched down around Ravens Rock State Park and Chick mentions that the elevation there is much higher and that may have made the difference. Chick is that person here, or may I say one of those people who I taught me to understand North Carolina Weather from listening to what they say and absorbing it in until it became fluid and I know NC weather (both winter and summer/hurricane season) almost as good as I know Florida weather.

When Chick posts I pay attention. Is there anyone who follows me on X that doesn't know how I feel about @dabuh and when he posts a heart I know he knows just maybe something is going to happen. No one is perfect, but his long term "this is it" posts almost always verify. It's almost spooky....

This literally hits me where I live.

Straight to the heart of the matter.

While I wouldn't mind some tropical weather...

...I would not love a landfall around Pawley's Island.

That's my happy place up here...

...like Key West in Florida.

Could this happen?

It could.

Close in development.

Not deep tropical action.

But very tropical all the same.

It's too early to say. The NHC isn't ready to blink, but if models keep spinning out scenarios that all align closely one way or the other, they may blink sometime this week. Will models continue to show some agreement? Keep watching. It's not just the ICON. It's not just Dabuh sniffing out hearts that show patterns that continue. It's not just me saying "watch close in, watch close in" as if I have that saying on a tape and if anyone asks me "so Bobbi what do you think weather wise" I'll say like a robot "watch close in, watch close in" or maybe babble it in my sleep even! (Ps once I had a dream back in the day and I woke up and was upset as Fishing and I were in a chat about some tropical wave...hate waking up feeling all jarred and then realizing I was dream texting about the tropics.......truth)

 

The pretty purple....  comes ashore...

..in exact location the ICON has it.

 EURO is notarious for low opening bids.

moves up to the same SC beach

then into NC

A plus on location.

Let's look at a current loop.

The area to the East of Florida wants to spin.

But there ain't no spin now.

Just lots of rain.

Lots of rain lowers pressures.

There's also quite the mess in the NE Gulf again.

Below is a current water vapor image

You have that high pressure to the NW

How low does it go?

Stay tuned.

But one thing I want to note.

Oddly, we have seen tropical development this year..

...impacting near or starting near

where an earthquake struck.

So watch the area to the North of the Islands.

Japan had an earthquake and a typhoon!

Italy has a horrific heat spell and an earthquake.

While I did study Geology in college...

..and I know it's not a theory.

It keeps happening.

Like when a spot it hot... it's hot

Maybe one day we will learn more.

But for now keep that in mind.

While El Nino may have shut down the Carib...

... Mother Nature keeps rocking & rolling quakes.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm with strong thunder in Raleigh

This is for granddaughter who loves this song.

She's a Leo... and a mini me.

(freaky)

She just got back from Aruba....

yeah missing the salt air it seems.

Enjoy.... 

...but know I may talk on Africa this week.

African Wave train has a bit of support.

But not ready to sing that song