BOC Yellow Area 10% Chances for it to Re-Emerge Over the NW Gulf... Maybe. Huge Bulked Up Wave Coming Off of Africa... SAL Waiting for It! Mystery Building in the Gulf... Models Vs Reality.

 

10% still.

The graphic's shape has changed.

I could see an Invest coming.. maybe.

I could show the current El Nino graphic ....

...but today this is more important.

Temperatures in the BOC today...

...will, can support development.

Will know soon nuff...

..but will it die out over Mexico 

Or 

Will the moisture slip away....

...and try to connect to the front.

???? 

Models from the Spaghetti Model Man!

Mike telling it like it is...

Lots of IFs in the discussion for this interesting graphic. A weak area could try and form before making landfall and then re-emerge over the NW Gulf on TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY and interact with a frontal boundary, but there's lots of IFs still. So the scenario for the front has not evaporated as yesterday's short lived sunshower did in the 100 degree heat, that did I will say drop us down into the low 90s after the raindrops fell briefly before moving on.

I have so many wild thoughts running through my head, but trying to stay on track here this morning. Know tho that the sun woke me up way too early. Even before it rose in the sky as it just showed it's presence near the horizon it felt like a blast of bright light and it was already 80 degrees. This is about as tropical as it gets in the Carolinas, more like back "home" in Miami when we start the day at 80 in June.

Starting off with the reality of CLIMO and what history teaches us about long shots such as Cristina. Rarely does a named storm actually cross the finish line in that part of the world. Everyone was watching to see Cristina do it and yet the closer she got the faster she fell apart. That does not mean the rain did not fall and yet there is a reason few named storms make a landfall. There are always exceptions to the rule, such as Beryl barreling through the Islands when the shear disappeared!  

Again this is one region.

They are connected.

Storms near the Yucatan...

..get their energy from down below.

Energy being moisture...

....that feeds them like a gas line.

An electrical current.

Zoom in and you will see why the Bay of Campeche is so favorable this time of year. Be it a forecast crazy, busy bumper crop year or a possibly record breaking El Nino CLIMO tries hard to get its way. There's a reason crappy, messy blobs pull together just before they reach the coast in that region and get a name or designation. So if it became a TD I would not be surprised. It has a ways to go though...

So much to look at here and yet there's really not much to say. Wild, huge wave coming off of Africa. Obviously I can say June too soon and it's gonna run into a wall of Saharan Dust. And, yet you can see the lead wave, riding low in the water has hints of vibrant convection. What will this impatient wave look like in two days time I wonder. Really bulked up getting ready to depart Africa.

Note most the storms...

...align vertically here.

For now... 

The front is on the move.

ITCZ horizontally.

Some models......hint at...whisper at our area of interest moving West and then the moisture gets jerked fast to to the ENE or NE up into other stronger atmospheric elements. Some take the misture up into areas that could really use the moisture. Where and when do long shots play out is the question. And, the scenario for moisture being slung backwards into the Gulf and beyond has happened before and will again but will it be this June? 

Speaking of El Nino that comes on in the summer, gains momentum in the Fall and reaches towards a crescendo as we approach the holidays. El Nino literally referred to the Christ Chld meaning Christmas Time when this feature was made known before the time of modeling and satellite imagery. The ancient sailors knew it was there as their fish were not where they expected them to be and when the fish were not where they were supposed to be they didn't make money and it impacted their own daily life. Now we say EL NINO and try and find some super hyped up label for it such as Godzilla El Nino. The graphic above from the CSU updated forecast released yesterday shows this graphic. The further West the El Nino spreads, the stronger it becomes. This is the graphic to remember when looking at those graphics with the deep reds over the building El Nino speading West.

So stay tuned.

June is not too soon this year for weak, meager development and that is what we usually see in June in the BOC.  El Nino years tend to have surprises and storms take strange tracks and yet for the most part they stay weak. One usually busts through to Major status and sometimes it's in the Atlantic at a high latitude and sometimes it's close in to the beaches of fthe Gulf. So stay prepared, stay aware and have an awesome weekend! 

Go Canes! (That's a hockey reference....)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere  whatever .....

BOC Area Being Watched 10% in the 2-7 Day Time Frame. Will 2026 El Nino Rival 1997? Time Will Tell. A Look at Analog Years for 2026. Yes El Nino Years.

 

Current area being watched by the NHC...
10% in the 2 to 7 day period.
Image above from Zoom Earth

Will let it simmer some and see what happens.

Today I'm discussing Analog years for 2026

From the newly updated CSU report

1957
1965
1987
1997
2009
2015

Yesterday the updated CSU forecast report came out with lots of information and a new set of analog years for this current Hurricane Season. Below are the years mentioned above. All were El Nino years. So let's take a look.

1957 Hurricane Season.

Generally a quiet hurricane season.

Usually some exception...

Early in the season Audrey formed in the BOC

It made landfall in Texas

It was a wave that moved into the BOC.

Carrie was a long tracker....

...staying at a high latitude.

Similar in ways to Erika in 1997

More on that later.

1965 was a busier season.

Lots of loopy tracks.

Most memorable was Betsy.

Struggled to develop and pull it together.

I've spent much time studying Betsy.
Spent lots of time at the NHC Library doing research.

A typical double hitter.

Florida and Louisiana
Betsy was mean.....

Then there was Carol a long tracker.

1987 was a fairly forgettable year.

Also lots of scribble scrabble tracks.

Below average El Nino Year

Still 10 people died.

90 Million dollars damage.

A lackluster Floyd did the Florida Keys & Miami 

Another "dead" season more or less.

El Nino was famous ... it had nicknames.

"Mother of All El Ninos"

What can I say about 1997? My personal thoughts are censored, but always remembered. I'm fairly sure many trackers and forecasters were on some sort of meds. Similar tracks tracing along the East coast. Danny formed the hard way from an Upper Level Low near the coastline, near landafall and then was renamed upon making it to the Atlantic Ocean after doing parts of the Appalachian Trail.  Erika did that big C shape out in the distant Atlantic that we have seen in these analog years. El Nino aside, there was still death, destruction and divorce. Nine people died from Danny. 

Erika a long tracker.

2009 gave most people a rest...

After 2004, 2005, 2006 we needed one.

Many high latitude, long trackers.

That one storm that slips through into the Gulf

Bill a long tracking C shaped El Nino storm.

Bill threatened New England... but curved away.

It was a big wave maker.

2 people died in Maine.

1 in Florida.

Grace was an artist........

2015 Hurricane Season

Are you seeing patterns here?

I know I am...

2015 is most remembered for Joaquin.

A looper and long tracker.

Joaquin was quite the storm.

Formed from an ULL

It's dip down by the Bahamas..

...slow movement

Huge size.

Major Hurricane

Fire hose into Carolinas

Charleston had flooding...

Okracoke was evacuated

155 MPH

34 people died 

The El Faro went down...
...the crew lost at sea.

So what have we really learned?

Storms still form in El Nino years, though most are meaningless and unforgettable. Many form close in along the East Coast and trace the coastline out to sea. Many loop and do odd tracks and refuse to die traveling back across the Atlantic at a high latitude. Many form from Upper Level Lows and while most are weak, some can become Major Hurricanes even in El Nino years. But........usually they are not a threat to land, but not always. People still die and there is still destruction. Hopefully not this year but we learn from history.

There will be less hurricanes. There will be less Major Hurricanes. Hope no Major Hurricane comes near you and that you are aware and prepared should one do so. Happens.

El Nino is so far officially a thing but still in it's infancy. Currently it has been said that we are twinning 1997 and if so that will be horrific for Austrailia and regions nearby as that El Nino went so far West it was responsible for drought, death and destruction reminding people El Nino is no hero, though he does lessen the chance off destructive hurricanes making landfall and yet sometimes they do. The famine was truly devastating. So hopefully 2026 will not be a strong as 1997 was and yet many say it might be. Time will tell, it always does.

From Google above.... 

I'll discuss the CSU report more tomorrow. But I thought it was good to look back at the analog years.  Makes it easier for me as I can easily find info in my online diary that some off you choose to read.

Thanks 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather...

1997 was a time for sure.

Chaotic 

Crazy

Colorful

NHC Giving Development in BOC a Chance.... 10% Yellow 1st of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Can Cristina's Leftovers Spark Development?

 

1st Yellow Area of Interest in BOC!

Intricately tied to Cristina...

...in the EPAC

Tropical systems that cross over from the EPAC into the Atlantic Side are nothing new, but the ones that actually get a name are few and often remembered. This is one basic geographic region and Central America lies between it's two parts! Often development in the EPAC happens from areas of convection that move of of Colombia and Venezuela and move Westward into the EPAC and get a name. Sometimes remnant moisture, as we call it, moves into the BOC or into the Caribbean and becomes an early June storm. Could this be Arthur? Stay tuned the 10% is for the 7 day, but it's 0% in the 2 day.

It's easy to see the connectivity in this graphic above from the Mimic. The first place I looked this morning was the Mimic and the signature I saw made me fairly sure we would get a yellow circle somewhere near the BOC.  This picture best shows how connected the EPAC is with the Caribbean and BOC. You can see the legs, the arms.... where it forms perhaps is hinted at here or perhaps where it "tries" to form. For now it has low chances of development next week sometime. Anything involving the CAG takes time. It's not a tightly wound, westbound tropical wave chugging along under a strong high from Africa over hot water in late August. It's June, not really too soon but generally weak and often found forming in the Bay of Campeche. 

https://zoom.earth/ is an awesome site!

In one image you can see the AOC 10%

and down below the track for Cristina.

And satellite imagery as well!

 Mike....shows it all here in one graphic!

Adore Mike, we've been friends for a long time.

On a cruise he's busy tracking!

So beyond what I have posted, there is not really much more to say. Sometimes the BOC gets development from a long tracking tropical wave that rounds the corner and gets into the BOC from the Carib and sometimes it gets development from the EPAC leftovers. And, usually we have an early BOC named storm to literally kick off the Hurricane Season. Could this year be that year? Stay tuned!

Amazingly.......this area is geologically busy also!

Currently looking like the real...

...Devil's Triangle.

And El Nino off to it's West....

..bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

Stay prepared.

Stay aware.

We have only just begun...

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Gonna leave you for now...

...with this musical melody

a visual reminder of the beauty of the tropics

And the heat, the tropical heat in the air.

Hurricane Season is here....

...stay aware!

Boris & Cristina Fading Away.... Kind of Like Butch Cassidy & The Sundance Kid - Maybe. Convection in Caribbean Questions. BOC Arthur? Maybe.

 

Let's focus on satellite imagery.

NHC cones show them having a short life.

Moving inland with flooding rains.

A close of up of the area.

Blurry but so is the possibility....

...of crossover development in the Atlantic.

Boris moved inland and it's hard for the NHC to find it's circulation center and yet the rain, the moisture oozes about and has flared up close to the coast. Yet it's being sheared off as you can see above. Cristina down below is battling shear. This is where the modeling possibilities of energy from these two getting into the BOC and creating a short lived Arthur fade away fast and fizzle in the light of day and reality bites hard. Being very honest. And, yet I can't honestly say there's no chance of development in the BOC in a few days time. So as always stay tuned.

The Water Vapor Image...

...shows their moisture envelope.

That remains.

Good chance this year June is too soon.

But as always stay aware.

Pop up tropical activity can happen...

...usually close in to the coast.

Especially in BOC region.

And Carib has been curiously stubborn...

...with constant convection.

Have an awesome day

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Would be a nice day to be out on a boat.

Tropical Trouble in the EPAC Boris & Cristina! Earthquake Near Cuba By the Yucatan 6.1 One of the Strongest Quakes Ever in that Region on Record & MIKE Was on The Cruise OVER the Quake! Life is Better Than a Movie!

Knew there'd be video as we'd talked online and knew Mike was on the Cruise around the site off the Earthquake, as in like literally over it on a cruise ship! 

The EPAC has been busy. It's gonna get busier with stronger storms, but so far the next storm name will be Douglas! The Atlantic is currently par for course lagging behind the EPAC that starts earlier in May. Meanwhile, there's been lots of discussion on how, possibly, the moisture from Boris and Cristina might help something develop in the Gulf or the BOC. What if the "spin" survives the crossing. Yes, it's that time of year that we leap at any scent of possible tropical development.  Models were all over it and then went silent kind of fast. Though there are still possibilities. It's a year of surprises so keep watching.

This post shows ya the tropical tea leaves.

Models doing their thing.

GFS super Cane came in for a wonky landing.

Sort of crashed and burned.

Currently nothing more than a chance of rain.

In my mind.

But hey tomorrow is another day!

Dabuh and I stay busy.

Watch the models.

Watch the waves (literally) 

Watch signs near the Yucatan....

...we have a heart game.

A sense of humor and fun is good.

Creative.

Watching the area by the Yucatan.

Cuba has had wild rains.

Key West has had wild flooding.

Sometimes S of a strong High Pressure ridge..

....barometric pressures drop so we watch.

That area down South of Cuba. 

Closer to Jamaica really firing up.

Over and over.

There's an Upper Level Low

Scooping under the convection.

That helps convection continue.

You can see that below.

You can see the blossoming of convection...

above the dark upside down C

That's the ULL down below.

Boris and Christina

Another heart over Cuba!!

What is going on with clouds today???

Watching the area near the Yucatan Passage...

...and oh my goodness!

Well......................

I didn't see that coming!

Apparently this is one of the strongest quakes.

In the Gulf.

This is officially IN the Gulf.

Yucatan Passage.

Where hurricanes form from waves.

But we have shockwaves today!

In the same area we have been watching...

...we definitely had developments of the geological kind.

 6.1 Earthquake.

Originally stronger... will see what holds.

Felt in Miami and the Keys.

SW FL!

Earth Sciences is amazing.

Those are all the reports ...

...zoom in 

Totally crazy!!

Stay tuned what tomorrow brings.

There's always models modeling.

For now ...chances are low.

Far out and not reliable.

But not impossible.

The region does seem active ...

...can't make this up.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

I asked Google for a Yucatan Song.

Okay....... lol