A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, September 25, 2026
Fay & Gonzalo. And the "Coastal Storm Turning Into a Nor'easter" Long Name When Not a Hurricane BUT Can Bring Hurricane Like Damages to Many Places
Named storms above.
No Name Storm below
Busy on a holiday vacation so keeping this short. We will see in real time what sort of damages and where the No Name Nor'easter will cause a long the coast. In Raleigh part of the sky was cotton white and the rest was deep beautiful blue. The white was the edge of the storm out in the Atlantic. That really make me stop, think....and stare that even this far inland part of it's shield was close enough to see.
Take all precautions the NWS or local experts tell you and remember trees are still leaf heavy and able to topple over faster slicing into someone's home and that's deadly. As deadly as basements that flood and highays that flood. Take it seriously and err on the side of safety til it's long gone.
TS Fay in Atlantic. Strong Coastal Storm Off East Coast... Weather Impacting Carolinas North Today. Some Coastal Flooding in VA. Where Does IT Go & Is Gonzalo Forming by African Wave?
Let's start here...
Right to Left.
Invest 90L looks like Gonzalo wannabe...
(I know NHC busy with EPAC)
Little small storm in the middle is FAY
Because FAY came back as I thought she might.
Note the ITCZ with strong color.
Next we have our coastal storm.
Will look deeper at that soon.
Note the linkage between the Yucatan ...
..and the flow from the front.
EPAC just gone bonkers
Lastly but most important.
The High pressure (purple) is pressing down.
Capping it all and trapping it for now.
The Coastal Storm may be a looper.
Fay is a beautiful little spinner!
Officially they have Invest 90L at 70%
Why it's not higher or upgraded not sure.
I know NHC busy but check out loop below
Zoom in on the center like area...
Sure looks like a candidate for upgrade soon.
Here you can see Fay & 90L
Gonzalo?
As for the coastal storm, that really is the story today, it's not 100% clear where it will go and what impacts places will have from it as it is still evolving. There is a mid-level or upper level low over Appalachia that's swirling. You have high pressure to the North of the Coastal Low possibly trapping it ...capping it from moving further North and that could aid in the Nor'eater looping around, hanging around the coast. How close to the coast is the question and models, of course, disagree. But how can you have that many models not expect them to disagree and see different scenarios? It's one thing to watch 5 or 6 and another to deal with 101 models (AI and regular and ensembles) making it harder for those who rely heavily on models vs synoptics who are more able to tune out the "noise" when making a forecast.
I'll add "noise" is huge today as everyone is trying to make the best AI image to grab your attention away from a post that might actually explain with words what is really going to evolve.
IE Is this mostly a coastal event or is it possible inland cities and towns along the NY/CT border meaning lower Hudson River Valley or is this just an problem for Long Island and New England? Thxaere's just so many questions. And as it's early in Fall and most leaves have not fallen from the trees in that region they will get wet, top heavy and there may be more power outage issues than many realize far from the actual beach.
Later today we should have a better idea, better forecast of exactly where the low forms and how it sets up in relation to the many weather factors that will get a vote in what happens as this storm develops into a September Nor'easter including "forward speed" of the Nor'easter. Also how far South it really goes into Florida, does it really make it to Cuba? Either way and if so watching the tail end of a front dangling down into hot tropical waters could help set up some spinner that could get a name ....way down the tropical road.
When I say "many players" involved in the developing 2026 September Nor'easter take a look at this great map filled with all the players by Content Weather. It's very complicated........
More later today or tonight.
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps Note this song below comes from The Perfect Storm and the Perfect Storm was October and involved with Hurricane Grace. Note it was 1991 an El Nino was developing and they were only on the G storm in late October so in a strange way perhaps .... this year when we are in search of Gonzalo as we move into October that may be an interesting year to look at analog wise for this particular Nor'easter in late September. Nice song. Good book. Great movie. I even have a tee shirt ;) from it. Definitely the right geographical region of the month is a bit early. And nowhere near as strong an El Nino as we have now but it's an interesting analog in ways.
Updated 5 PM TD Fay is Back.........X. Invest 90L African Wave... Hawaii & Hurricanes in 2026. East Coast Storm Adds Travel Quetions For Many
Check it out she had a Cone again !
Forecast to be a TS again
time will tell....
...we will see
Does Invest 90L develop too?
9 AM below..
Looks who is back?
Fay. Or X Fay.
Wannabee Fay again...
And our newest wave knows....
....about the shear.
Knows where our tropics are hot
and where they are not.
So heading up towards Azores?
Will see what it really does... if it gets a name.
For people addicted to the GFS
That's Monday as per the GFS
take with a spoon of sea salt :)
You can't make up 2026 Hurricane Season. Patterns are dug in deep, in ways set in stone yet there are still many questions on the "coastal storm" for lack of another name and no it is not the return of Sandy. I made a joke this week I think to ChickNC that I'd pay attention to Fay if she crossed 65W or maybe 60W and I said that as I did think there as some possibility that as she headed South and tried to find a place to survive she might get further West than expected previously. But that's a total long shot though sometimes long shots pay off. I might just wander around as it's small and small systems have the ability to sometimes hang in there or not.
Everything this week is like Trick or Treat? Plan A or Plan B or maybe even Plan C in the Atlantic. The Atlantic is an unfriendly place this year and Hawaii has problems with any storm that has L in the name, is that strange or what?
Autumn Equinox. Storm Coming Together in a Coastal Storm... 2 Lows & a Tropical Flow. Fall May Actually Be on the Way!
"The Mid Atlantic is much more complicated as 2 lows become one and tropical moisture gets involved" Jim Cantore is a good writer, a great communicator using his words wisely. This is a complicted storm system with many parts all in movement as a strong tropical flow plowing into a region where two lows are forecast to come together and the tropical flow provides the moisture for what can be a flooding scenario across a wide area. And, as it's happening in real time (much "like" a Winter Storm) we really are not sure who will get what when!
Note below the High to the East pushing, defining the movement of the tropical moisture Northbound. Note the "digging" in of one part of this system into the Southern Appalachaians currently. Then at the top you see the dark, black oozing into this loop as air from the North ...cold air... pushes down as these 3 parts become one mighty storm that will punch some city, some beach, some area with heavy rains, flooding and oh yes strong wind gusts are involved as well.
This is the Danger Zone.
Areas to watch AND....
...know this will be updated in real time.
The European as he shows....
...does some great gynastic moves.
Thank trapeze artists....
A core comes together....
....it swirls,, takes aim at various places.
Where it goes no one knows - for sure.
Dabuh knows how to wake me in my sleep...
...or while I'm half asleep
A yellow heart....
...how close does the storm come...
to the coastline.
OBX
Long Island
Cape Cod?
And how far West will impacts...
...be impactful.
You know when there is no hurricane to move energy from the equator to the poles by way of a hurricane, Mother Nature steps in (especially around the Autumn Equinox) and throws weather at us while trying to move energy around the planet be it a hurricane or a quasi-hybrid storm or an early 'Noreastet. I'll take any of it as I want Summer to leave. As in "Hit the road Jack and don't come back" for a long, long time. Today is the first day of Autumn. And we have a storm this week that's hard to nail down in it's many parts and where and when they will meet up to do the most damage.
Easy to say that "If" we get that deep diving cold front... they usually slow in the Carolinas. Maybe this time NC/VA line. And, yet eventually it's supposed to move down South and tease everyone with a brief taste of fall. It's not that I don't believe it, I'll believe it when I see it. I'll believe it when I wake up, go out onto the balcony and go "ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh it's cool!"
I know the cold front goes South of here but I'm looking at where the "danger zone" would be in this region and that's where a normal cold front would go stationary except this would be pummeling surf and high wind. That means trees come down, there's flooding and weather trouble.
How deep inland can this impact people?
Raleigh to Richmond could get noticeable weather with wind and rain before the change to "oooh it's cool"
Places like Greenville NC and Petersburg, VA and all places in between.
Or is this New Bern to Williamsburg, the Colonial cities?
2 PM Invest 99L at RED 70% Atlantic May Become Fay ... Late September Shows High Increase Near Florida. Coastal Low Cruiser in Late September a Maybe. Watching 9/25 Maybe Something Spins Close In?
Developing quickly it seems....
...may get the Fay name.
that's 70% in the 2 day too...
Zoom Earth below....
...who had that on their Bingo Card?
Again I've said this area gets busy in El Nino years.
seems we have a spinner...
...will update later today
a definite maybe Fay!
***
Modern Art via the NHC
Subtropicals and areas by the Azores..
..in El Nino years always possible.
Can we use the name Fay there?
or is Fay a Florida storm?
Wondering.
Currently Florida has a lotta rain.
Kids called. Brother called.
Pictures with of flooding....
People in FLL posting on X
Flooding .... ULL nearby
Funneling Rain Storms
Dirty side of ULL never fun.
But that's not a named storm today.
Just an ULL parked nearby, spinning.
Tho Upper Level Lows can help spin happen tho.
Especially in El Nino years when waves are weak.
Things develop close in ...
..especially with dangling cold fronts over hot water.
So this is the 7 day Rain Forecast.
That's a whole lotta rain.
So keep that in mind while looking at models.
Models that hint at development close in.
Keeping mind predictions for heavy rains there.
Yes it's the GFS but date is 9/30/26 Staying in September today.
How does this happen? Well at first we see something over Cuba tries to close off into a low. It moves up towards Florida keeping it weak. Once back over the Gulfstream which is hot it builds into a closed Low that moves up towards the OBX area. Not saying landfall is expected here but do think it's possible to have something offshore. I'm saying it's possible and more probable than close in. This same run showed a Low near the islands off Africa and a day or so out poof it was gone. That's probably, in line with the reality of 2026 that shows ever Azore Lows and possible Subtropicals couldn't even get spinning. Close in has more of a chance. That also still goes for the Gulf where old dangling cold fronts linger too long over tropical waters that are crazy hot and basically untapped and that's energy that will (should anything from want to release that pent up energy) be a problem.
In truth there is nothing expected, but in El Nino years watch close in for unexpected things to pop up and I'll add especially late in the season when the water is crazy hot. A strong coldfront is forecast to get down past Tampa and I'm very skeptical of that. A stationary front maybe. A strong cold front? In Miami we don't even wish on cold fronts until late October and if we get lucky they show up in time for Halloween. But who knows, this has been a crazy year and yes I have said "crazy" multiple times for multiple reasons.
Watching the time frame from 9/25 on...
...for something to pop up perhaps.
pop up perhaps
say that 3x
:)
Have a good weekend!
I'll update Sunday... football Sunday
Sweet Dreams...
... may whatever you dream for come true!
BobbiStorm
Personally I'm dreaming on cooler weather.
But would love "something" off the NC coast...
...to go watch waves and sea foarm
and feel the wind.
Similar to Erin last year maybe.
Time will tell.
Enjoy the song.
My Seattle son moved to Colorado.
They go to concerts at Red Rocks
Won't lie it's stunning and the sky....
..its so wild in Colorado.
Enjoy.
I "need" to go see them soon.
Later than sooner but who knows. I stay out here a lot but...
...when I go it's Gypsy like fast!
Since I said "crazy" so many times.
Will play the most beautiful crazy song.
Love this song. Love the movie.
Oldie but won 7 Oscars...
Since you might still be here.
Crazy was written by Willie Nelson and sung in 1961 by Patsy Cline. It played forever and ever and ever on Country Radio and is still playing today. As a kid growing up in an area called "Little Georgia" in Miami every mother had Country Music playing on the radio and as you walked through the backyard you'd hear Patsy Cline singing some song, long after she was gone tragically in a plane crash. If you ever watched the movie you would know that. A lot in that movie resonated with me for various reasons. That movie was made in 1981 twenty years after Willie wrote it for Patsy. It's still a classic for any young Country crooner to sing as it's as relevant today for many as it was in 1961 when Willie wrote it. Think on that a bit. I really was born Country or Southern in the Coastal South to a family that had been there for generations ... and yes there is a difference between the parts of the South and what many think of as "Country" but that's not important here on my Weather Blog ....what IS important is that I do believe one big storm will from...where I can't tell you but I'd sure watch close in around September 25th on .... where it goes no one knows as it has not formed yet. Also ignore any typos please, though I do so love living in the Carolinas I am not in love with allergy season here in the Autumn but.... I do so love watching the leaves turn I just don't care for the weeds!
Maybe Something Last Week in September. What Something Is I Can't Say Yet. NHC Has a Slow Burner Orange Simmering on It's Main Page. Or Maybe They Thought It Was a Pumpkin? Hmnnn. Cooler Weather in Carolinas Today. Yay! CAG May Wake Up.
Let's start here.... ...it's a very good place to start.
Orange circles come and go, but this is a set up for the rest of the month and it's a NOAA product. It says "watch off the coast of Africa" and off the Southeast Coast. Note also there's a stalled out stationary front off the coast through Bahamas and the next "front" should also stall out somewhere round here so it's an area to watch as per the NHC.
Official Orange circle from NHC
Honestly I am not even going here.
It's actually Invest 98L
Honestly there is nothing threatening, and even blobs are having problems getting going. But NHC watching Invest 98L Models below show where it might go ...should it try and develop and it's not anyone. So we are just gonna let it sit a bit longer.
yeah maybe up into the Atlantic someday....
...highest estimates show a maybe tropical storm.
Maps show stalled out stationary troughs.
We are waiting to see real weather.
The truth is there is a lotta speculation on the CAG starting up this next week as we move towards September. I'm not sold on some of the scenarios and so waiting til tomorrow to see what they show again to see some consistency and something I can really believe in. The image below is for October 1st and shows "stuff" out there and we have had nonstop possible systoms that evaporate the next day or two and we go back to nothing. I don't want to put up "stuff" here that is just hype. But what I will do is I'll post a video from my friend Mitch talking on the CAG as many very reliable meteorologists do believe the CAG will become a player that could deliver some tropical energy towards the Gulf Coast. I'll add when he says this could escalate quickly is because the water is untapped and hot as Hades in the Gulf and should something with a center get up into that region it could escalate quickly. Keyword "could" but he explains it well and he's a good guy who does a great job with weather and this is a fairly short video so enjoy.
What I will say is this is the EURO below.
October 1st!
Convection and possibilities.
Either it's dreaming..... ...or well we will see.
AI spits out models so fast it's like a kid with the hiccups.
I like AI models.
I just have not seen anything I can pass along ...
40% Orange Chances in the Middle of the Atlantic. Otherwise Tropics Quiet.
Tropics quiet. Well mostly quiet! Ok…. in the Atlantic Basin they are fairly quiet. There’s a 40% orange circle out in the middle of the Atlantic East of Bermuda that has a brief shot of stealing the name Fay. This is a candidate for subtropical or tropical in a favored area in strong El Niño years.
Waves run out of steam & those that survive get shredded by El Niño induced shear. That’s like shear on steroids! There’s a strong early season front that in theory would grab it and play with it. Behind the front there is high dry air so it’s in a safe spot now but down the road it gets sketchy for development. Being honest. There’s always that 1% chance something unusual happens in àn El Niño year.
Slim pickens this year. Long range models be flirting with something forming in the CAG. Some dream scenario where a list area of convection tries to hide from the Pacific & sneaks up into BOC. Sometimes in this set up … when enhanced by the MJO has a chance to try and grab on to a dipping early season front and catch a ride up towards Florida. That’s a general plot line for a screenplay that has not been written yet as we move closer to August. Based on history more than modeling.
Floyd in I think 1987 was that sort of weak Florida bound storm in a slow hurricane season. It aimed for the Keys and impacted Miami. Palm fronds fell down. Traffic signals swayed in the tropical breeze. Google it.
I’m kind of on vacation currently….
Doing a quick short catch up on the tropics as the NHC did give the area in the Atlantic the orange 🍊 chances.
I’ll add a song & update later
Just saying “hi” & “see ya later”
BobbiStorm relaxing in slightly cooler weather ànd lower humidity.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
