A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, August 10, 2026
60% Area of Interest Further Out... Closer in Lower Chances.
Waves
Tropical Waves.
That was IS looking healthy!
Models show development...
...more so 2nd wave with 60%
I'd think if we hit 70%
NHC might make an Invest!
As always
El Nino nor No El Nino
There's shear at the entrance to the Carib
More yes, still same old story
Can it pull to the North ...wNw enough
To pull up over the Islands
Land around PR or to the NE
and then what?
Keeping this short today. This is not a day to go long on speculation as much as to watch and wait in real time. I'll update later today IF NHC blinks, IF models hop on more than hop off. And, really I want to see what it does in real time on the satellite imagery, what it's got going there. IF it gets a good signature on Earthnull which it does not yet, but this was always forecast to be later in the week time wise for development.
Wave Train Busy Like Palmetto Expressway at Rush Hour. Which Survives? Which Thrives? How Will New AI Models Handle the Traffic? 2 Areas of Interest!!
Love Zoom Earth....
...shows the satellite imagery and areas of interest.
I still do not understand why NHC won't do this..
...but am sure they have their reasons.
You can see the SAL.
You can see the convection.
(always watch the water vapor with waves....)
Does a wave develop into a storm...
..that gets precariously close to OBX
Similar to the clouds out there today?
Somewhere between Bermuda and OBX?
I keep wondering on that...
...because of current pattern.
Mike is awesome with grids...
...isn't he?
That said this is very long range modeling. This is very, very long range modeling as forecasting that these waves might develop and end up close to the US coastline but not be a threat (as I have heard some say as if they have tropical psychic powers) as the reality is what we think fronts will or won't do this time year is not very reliable and all depends on how close ...how fast......how slow the models go and IF they are battling an Upper Level Low or other factors I'm not going into as this is already too long a run on sentence. Believing in a 10 day models with two possible systems close together this far out is like the world's longest run on sentence.
So going to take it slow, watch in real time, check the models and get on with my life today. The wave over Africa is delicious to watch from a distance on the satellite loops, it literally has a spin to it. But I am not obsessing. Let's see what we see tomorrow. Lots to watch suddenly and I'm taking it one day at a time, one wave at a time.
yes I know my fav hurricane season song
Yes I'm using it as a sound track as I loop....
There is so much I want to say but I'm not ready to say regarding the Wave Train of August 2026. Our two areas being watched by the NHC and the third wave waiting to join the party. It's a Conga line and haven't seen one in a while so I want to sit back and enjoy it. Once upon a time there were models. And, when I say models I mean usually the good one and the crappy one and the new one getting attention. Then we had an array of good models, but mostly talked on talked on the EURO vs the GFS. Now we have the AI models and there are a whole lot of them, so choose wisely. And, can't wait to see how well the new improved 2026 AI models do with a wave train that's as congested as the Palmetto Expressway at Rush Hour... if you know you know.
I love models.
You know what I love more? I love watching satellite imagery and using other data to slice and dice a good wave train. I love the wide view of what is happening everywhere that the models see when they spit out conflicting data. I love chasing. I love being at the ocean preferably feeling the wind, the waves, and watching sea foam flying in the wind and even here inland in Raleigh the way we chased a line of wild storms by ISAIAS in 2020 talk about getting out into the world during the whole Covid mess. So never lose site of of these parts of the equation nor get lost in just one part of the drama.
I'll be honest. I am not rushing this. I am not obsessing nor freaking out. My thoughts are tempered by both El Nino and a good knowlege of Hurricane History. Don't rush it. Enjoy it. Savor it like coffee or sex or a good football game. I mean we are talking on models promising development on Friday. Note Friday is FIVE days away before we even get lift off for possible development. Pace yourself!
For the South Florida crowd...
Phil as always is awesome to follow.
Even if you don't live in S FL..
Currently my mind is here....
Interesting wave over Africa still.
Interesting, fantastic QB that played for Carolina..
...oh my goodness.
Time will tell...
Did y'all know Lynette Charles is one of my favorite people on TWC? Just putting it out there. She is smart, she is smooth, she is classy, she is on top of it all and does a great job showing the whole picture of weather on Sunday Morning. Love listening to friends on YouTube. I watch a lot of Fox Weather as they do a bang up job, less set in parameters that TWC tends to be, they show satellite imagery, radar they show the weather and even watch Weather Nation even though I'm not in Canada. Apps... are good, I watch them all ................. but currently pacing myself, enjoying the moments. Watching the way the sun hits my window decorations when it hits a certain height in the sky. I stand outside in the earning morning and feel how the balcony is cooler in the morning than it's been; drier before the heat heats up and the humidity that rules the day. I ponder what Autumn decoration I'll put up when I take the Summer stuff down because I'm Southern and we do that.
Stay tuned. Don't rush this..... take it slow, take it in parts and don't buy any 10 day out forecast and never rule out surprises in El Nino years.
Never. Stop. Chasing.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
Always amazes me at times such as these I live in the Carolinas and have for a long time. I go to Miami often so sometimes I forget. So when I look at a wave train I look with one eye on Miami and the other eye on Raleigh Durham area. I really live here, go figure. Often debating how close it'll come to Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach ...even if it's curling away.... Enjoy the music, it tells a story with musical clues.
2 Waves off of Africa. Area Close in SE Coast Sliver of a Chance of Developing Offshore Storm. Where's Cristobal?
Wide view of the basin.
There's lots of convection off the SE Coast.
That's where models made a storm originally.
Good news........they got the location right.
They got the convection right.
Just no organized storm.
And, off the coast of Africa ...
..we have a new contestant.
I will say models are giving support...
... but will see how long that lasts.
So far NHC hasn't blinked much.
Close in it is amping up the storms.
S FL got really lucky with this one.
So did the Carolinas.
In any other year this might have been the one!
Well at least a named storm.
NOTE....some models try and develop this...
...forming up into something
And pulling off out to sea.
You never know...
...could get some ACE going.
For the ppl who need ACE.
Vs chasing.....tracking.
But worth mentioning it.
One is swimming.
Another one is behind that one still over land.
With all the SAL out there...
a big bulky set of moist waves.
have more of a chance
Or one juices up the way for the next.
ModelS are showing a lead wave stay low and dry to head into the Carib, again it didn't get the Memo. A wave behind it pulls more to the N of West ...wNw and could ride above the islands and shear and slide up into our part of the world though currently models curve it away from landfall. Way too far to even half believe in a model, when NHC blinks and puts up a yellow 10% circle we will discuss it in more depth. But there is a window opening that a storm could spin up, get a name and a bit of fame in this quiet 2026 El Nino Season.
Ps Panther's game last night was incredible. Love the QB, maybe this is a year for the underdog.
Updated CSU Report.... Keeps 1 Major Cane in Predictions ..... NHC Says Nada Next 7 Days... Models Teasing Development Soon.
Good call. Keep the 1 Major Cane possible.
Next name up Christobal.
Possibilities down the tropical road. Low probabilities currently but stay tuned.
Great App always!
There's the candidates over Africa!
We will see tomorrow what the models show... ....getting closer to something vs nothing.
I spent a good part of the day yesterday cleaning and organizing in the closet. Staying busy rather than obsessing on the summer heat and the quiet tropics. I found old diaries of various kinds. Life, learning, hurricane season, etc. And, the page I opened up to was Hurricane Gordon. There's serendipity, a wonky storm in an El Nino Year! So posting here the a short entry from the hurricane diary from when I was younger and apparently giving my thoughts on life and Hurricanes. Haha I haven't changed much have I? Sounds so young and "OMGosh" lol. Ironically I mentioned Gordon the other day and apparently I went long on Gordon in 1994. This morning my thoughts on Gordon show up so thought it was worth sharing.
"Tropical Storm Gordon came up from the Caribbean, made a circle around Cuba and now is going NNW parallel to the lorida coast. Occasionally we get a squall tho it's so windy-but it passes fast!"
I'm guessing I was here in the storm.
Suppose I thought it would just go out to sea.
Well, was I wrong.
But weather is locational....
...it was raining heavy we were on NE side.
Tropical Storm impacts recorded.
Early strange track..... ...eventually later track strange.
I lived about 3-4 blocks from the Atlantic Ocean, depends how you could Indian Creek on Miami Beach. After Andrew were were a bit camera shy about hurricanes, let them go somewhere else but be close enough to be able to go to the beach 3-4 blocks away and watch the waves and pray the ceiling didn't leak. So gentle reminder that El Nino brings wonky tracks sometimes, and still delivers damage in El Nino years even when the "numbers" and "ACE" are suppressed. And, EPAC is busy beyond words.
What Does Music and Hurricanes Have in Common? What Goes Around Comes Around. Everything Old is New Again. Expect Surprises in El Nino Years
So the models backed away on development, and yet the moisture is still locked in place. But models show this blobby mess, concentrated Blobby rain mass hits the same spot the models hit the other day. Currently I'm just watching the pattern, peeking at models but not expecting much til I see the pattern begin to pull together.
Keep in mind the darker the berry the less the juice.
Well on this image.
Dark means dry, dry, dry.
Little pockets embedded in the red.
Small tropical waves.
And our huge GUMBY like moisture area.
That's juice off the SE/East Coast.
That said some models.........w
.....there is always that model
Sees possible development!
Will say the waves looking juicier.
That said they swim into dry air.
And shear as well so.......
...take those models with a teaspoon sea salt
But hey even Bryan looking at models.
It's August, we look.
"August look out you must!"
yep models are modeling the waves.
But they hit shear and dry air.
Only area to really watch is close in.
Close in... Above Caribbean.
The reason I'm mentioning this video is that in El Nino years we sometimes get wonky, weird tracks and surprises happen more in El Nino years than regular years. Betsy in 1965 was one those storms that is the best example. Loved hearing Bryan Norcross discuss Betsy, a hurricane I have studied in great detail. Betsy was a looper! She made several loops. She stalled, she was all about drama. And despite the NHC going with a Carolina, a North Carolina track, she backtracked and turned SW...then stalled again then turned due West the way Andrew did and like Andrew she went West thru Miami and the Keys then went on to that typical 2nd target and slammed into Louisiana ......oh like Andrew did and it'll happen again like Katrina did. But know that in an El Nino Year development should be later when we normally see real development and know to expect surprises because we have fronts and when we do they sometimes slice thru and other times they stall out and things can change in the ever popular cone! Loops can happen anytime, but they love El Nino Years.
Not saying this will happen.
Just saying ... things get wonky in El Nino years.
August 2026! Models Teasing Tropical Trouble Off or On the SE Coast... Carolinas???
Gonna start here this afternoon.
you know the drill...
NHC Nothing for 7 days
you know the graphic by heart ...
When you make a major life move to a new area the one thing weather people do is look for the local experts. The ones who know that the funnel cloud seemed to have touched down around Ravens Rock State Park and Chick mentions that the elevation there is much higher and that may have made the difference. Chick is that person here, or may I say one of those people who I taught me to understand North Carolina Weather from listening to what they say and absorbing it in until it became fluid and I know NC weather (both winter and summer/hurricane season) almost as good as I know Florida weather.
When Chick posts I pay attention. Is there anyone who follows me on X that doesn't know how I feel about @dabuh and when he posts a heart I know he knows just maybe something is going to happen. No one is perfect, but his long term "this is it" posts almost always verify. It's almost spooky....
This literally hits me where I live.
Straight to the heart of the matter.
While I wouldn't mind some tropical weather...
...I would not love a landfall around Pawley's Island.
That's my happy place up here...
...like Key West in Florida.
Could this happen?
It could.
Close in development.
Not deep tropical action.
But very tropical all the same.
It's too early to say. The NHC isn't ready to blink, but if models keep spinning out scenarios that all align closely one way or the other, they may blink sometime this week. Will models continue to show some agreement? Keep watching. It's not just the ICON. It's not just Dabuh sniffing out hearts that show patterns that continue. It's not just me saying "watch close in, watch close in" as if I have that saying on a tape and if anyone asks me "so Bobbi what do you think weather wise" I'll say like a robot "watch close in, watch close in" or maybe babble it in my sleep even! (Ps once I had a dream back in the day and I woke up and was upset as Fishing and I were in a chat about some tropical wave...hate waking up feeling all jarred and then realizing I was dream texting about the tropics.......truth)
The pretty purple.... comes ashore...
..in exact location the ICON has it.
EURO is notarious for low opening bids.
moves up to the same SC beach
then into NC
A plus on location.
Let's look at a current loop.
The area to the East of Florida wants to spin.
But there ain't no spin now.
Just lots of rain.
Lots of rain lowers pressures.
There's also quite the mess in the NE Gulf again.
Below is a current water vapor image
You have that high pressure to the NW
How low does it go?
Stay tuned.
But one thing I want to note.
Oddly, we have seen tropical development this year..
...impacting near or starting near
where an earthquake struck.
So watch the area to the North of the Islands.
Japan had an earthquake and a typhoon!
Italy has a horrific heat spell and an earthquake.
Whispers of Developent Down the Tropical Road. GFS Dreams Big. EURO Plays it Coy But Does See Something Close In
So you remember how we always talk about the HIGH being a huge factor in development or lack of tropical development and a steering factor if and when a system develops? So keep that in mind with this discussion today.
The GFS has been fairly persistent in something forming off the East Coast either down to the N of the Islands or closer in East of Florida on the far left edge of the Huge HIGH in the Atlantic. As always we say over and over until you hate hearing it "watch the tail end of an old front" and yet it often is the main producer of systems in El Nino years that favor close in development off the East or SE Coast far from the Big Bad El Nino that acts like the Big Bad Wolf that is going to blow Little Red Riding Hood away or in this case what may or may not become Cristobal if the GFS is right. That said the EURO is hinting at some sort of development in that same region, though not as strong of course as the always ready to party GFS. Going to show the GFS, but remember it changes on every run in some way, but most have focused on the coast of the Carolinas. It's true this started with the same system sliding along the Florida coast up towards the Carolinas, now it's consistently offshore the Carolinas.
It's the GFS
If some off the AI models were on this...
...I'd pay more attention
Note tho there seems alot off rippling... .. in that area.
The strip off orange that's angled to the ENE is moving one way And the areas to the South are going the other way.
IR satellite imagery shows a little "dip"
Again often part of the front moves on out to sea.
And another part hangs back... .......and sometimes it can spin into a system.
Lots of IFS
Remember this is WAY DOWN THE ROAD
I am just showing the current environment.
Interesting little swirl (li'l) near Mona Passage.
I just checked the TWO from NHC
That's an upper level low...as I thought.
but I like confirmation ;)
Note center bottom of the loop.
That little swirl, ULL
Dancing in the Mona Passage
And to the NE nose of the High out to the right.
Near PR
Listen getting development in an El Nino Year, a strong El Nino Year is not easy. And, it's usually the random connections of a dead in the water front over very warm water, some swirl moves into the area and helps get things spinning close in. Or cross currents do the trick. There are models that are playing with a distant African Wave but it's still a bit soon for August development in any year and this is NOT any year. So while I may watch it, I'm more concerned with close in development in regions beyond the reach of El Nino. And, close in systems especially close in to the coast have more chances to impact land or make landfall. And, IF something develops the general trend in modeling is the HIGH chooses a bad time to expand and push that system closer to the coast. Which is why we always watch the High.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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