A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, February 04, 2026
Raining. Winter Storm Advisory in Carolinas. Rain to Snow to Maybe Freezing Rain. Whoah That's a Carolina Winter Sub.... Lots of Layers. Light Impacts Expected..............
oh look snow flakes in the morning.......
........then sunny!
Writing this blog this afternoon as I feel the current Winter System (Storm) moving through should be taken seriously. Obviously, without the panic drama of the storm that models showed would drop huge amounts of snow on Raleigh and it under performed due to a dry slot and left many bewildered on the inconsistencies of forecasting a winter storm in this region. As far as I could see when I was out this afternoon, they did not brine the roads; they aren't expecting more than a light or strong dusting and to be fair it's raining before the turnover to snow.
Allan Huffman Map from earlier today on X
Where I live I am in the top part of B.
Dusting to 1 inch. Freezing rain possible.
I'm close enough to the A area to pay attention to it.
These systems can be tricky...
rain moves in from the South
Cold air moving down.
Snow up to the North
Where they meet and when tells the story.
Most sources insisted it would begin raining around 6 or 7 PM. The rain moved in early around 4 PM. The cold weather also moved in early, temperatures dropped fast from a Spring like 45 degrees and I didn't even put the hoodie around me as I walked over to Barnes and Noble, leaving it around my waist because I'm lazy and I was pretending it felt like Spring. It no longer feels like Spring, it's really cold outside. That bone chilling, nasty cold is settling back into my bones. I shut the windows that I had open a bit and the heat is back on.
It's hard to pin down the specifics of a winter storm in the Carolinas. You don't know what you don't know until you know. That's not a cop out but an explanation from living here over 16 years. That's why we had a dry spot that denied us of 8 or 10 inches, leaving us with 1-3 inches in the Raleigh area.
Many times a storm that was supposed to deliver a light dusting over produced, especially when the cold air was in place, the ground is still covered in areas by piles of snow and it's followed several other winter storms ........many times one of those storms with light impacts can impact an area more than everyone expected.
I'm not saying I expect this system to overproduce various types of P-types but I am saying it could in some area and people should pay close attention to their weather sources in the morning. Currently schools are on a delayed start as it is in the forecast for Ice to be a problem on the roads from the rain, then wintry mix and then freezing rain providing a "light glaze" but I would not be surprised in some areas if that is changed to not melting by 9 AM. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get to above freezing until closer to Noon. Long run on sentence much like this winter here......
So I'd pencil in your commitments tomorrow and wait and see what actually happens. You know when we had a pencil and erased something we wanted to change. Something just is bugging me that it's wishcasting to think there will be no problems from this system considering how cold the ground is and how it's expected to snow into the morning (daytime) and we could have freezing rain. I've never seen a neck of the woods that used the word "could" so much as is used in Raleigh. But then again the phrase "might could" is an old saying here. So let me say, this system might could surprise some with more than they expected so don't assume there won't be changes made to the forecast. And, if not and it's just bone chilling damp and cold, be happy this was not a Carolina Snow Storm that did not deliver more than expected. I had a best friend when young who would not use pens, she was a writer and loved pencils. Sometimes I take out a pencil, smell it ...smile and use it for about 30 seconds. Conceptually there's something good about the concept, while it did erase you can always see a bit of what was there and the reminder that you changed your mind. Mother Nature changes her mind often this year.
That's my thinking on this storm. Then again I'm leaving the emergency supplies in the same spot in case we lose power (God Forbid) until probably March 1st.
Polar Vortex Merry Go Round. Denver & Billings Has Spring Like Weather While Miamians FREEZE & NC Getting More Snow Tomorrow.
Brrr!! Must be February!!
Watching weather people in North Carolina talking on the incoming system that could maybe, possibly bring a little more snow to our area. They are using words comically carefully so as not to panic a part of the population tired of Winter and praying for Spring. Then there's the hyping types who are screaming "3rd Week in a Row SNOW!" for the snow lovers wishing for more snow. It's February, some years we get snow, most years we do not. And it's not just North Carolina as areas in North Georgia are trying to dry out and dealing with very slow snow melt. I've been told when the snow melts you hit the layer of hard ice that was sleet on the bottom and it's not pretty and ABC Liquor Stores in Raleigh selling lots of Jack Daniels!
Those polka dot clouds offshore in the Atlantic...
...are cold, cold weather clouds.
There's a slot of dry air and blue skies...
...but behind it IS another system.
Yesterday we were all blue skies.
Gray, white like clouds moving in today...
It'll all really come down to timing.
Time of day the "precipitation" falls to the ground.
Some will be rain that'll help melt the snow.
Some may be snow
"OH NO!!"
or
"YAY!"
Lately we are less divided here on politics...
..than our love or hate for snow.
Maps are so simple.
That shade of blue is "mixed precipitation"
Maybe Freezing Rain ....
...or wintry mix.
We really didn't need a rodent ....
...to tell us Winter is here to stay for a while.
(sorry a groundhog is a rodent, that's true)
Meanwhile in Colorado they are basking in 60s...
Highs of 60s for Denver are like 80s for them.
Miami getting highs in the 50s is as if it was 30s.
And people in Denver way happier right now..
..than my family in Miami.
So snow or dry slot again?
Freezing Rain?
@SCweather_wx on X
Mitch West Weather on YouTube from SC.
South Florida problems......
Not even a 75 in sight let alone 80 degrees in Miami.
Snow Covers the Ground in Raleigh. What Did We Learn From This Storm? I'm Happy.... Snowy & Beautiful in Raleigh Tonight!
So where do I start to tell this story of this amazing January that was filled with Winter Weather Warnings and snow that actually fell onto the ground in Raleigh in 2026?
I'm took the day off today and just enjoyed staring at the snow that finally fell around 7 PM Saturday Night as it shows up above on my screenshot from my phone......that did verify! I'm offline on Saturdays for the Sabbath and the first thing I did after the sunset here was grab my phone, check on my kids (really) and looked at the radar. I knew a dry slot would come like the Grinch and steal much of our snow that was earlier forecast to be as high as the sky or so it seemed and we'd be lucky if we'd get 3 inches. I stared at my dry back yard with a bit of ice still from the sleet storm the weekend before....and it did kind of "smell like snow" on the balcony looking out wondering when this much ballyhooed snow would actually...........really fall. And, it did as the APP promised and as many had said that the Dry Slot would steal snow early on but eventually snow would move in from the Coastal Low and it did. I'm in a long, run on sentence mood......
Am I upset? Not really. Been here when there's been more than 8 inches of snow and it took weeks to get back to normal. But that part of me that loves weather and weather history would like to have seen it again. Been here 16 years though I'll admit the first half of that I was in Miami as much as I was here as I had family commitments there. Still ........we go for sometimes 2 or 3 years without even a fricking flake falling. I mean nothing. Promises of maybe flurries and nada, nothing.......not even a stray snow flake. For someone like me that loves a Carolina Winter you feel cheated, deprived and frustrated.
This year we had snow falling a few times before the promised huge totals of snow and so really I'm kind of happy and smiling and typing this from my bed, under 2 very warm covers and the sound of the little fake fireplace nearby and staring out at a touch of a pink, coral sunset illuminating the tops of the Carolina Pines. My husband is making dinner. I'm just chilling, but trying to stay warm as I don't like the heat on too high as honestly it messes with my sinuses and yes I have a humidifier quietly humming as well.
What actually annoys me... if there's one thing .......is that people don't really listen to what we say nor all the ways we try to remind people it's a difficult forecast, it'll change often and there will be a wide range of snow possibilities. And people don't check back as we ask them to and don't remember to check if something changed and so "no I was not surprised the two storms did not phase and I was prepared not to get snow as high as the sky in Raleigh" but I thought we'd definitely get a solid dusting or 2 or 3 inches.
People need to understand a forecast is predicting with scientific knowledge as good as we can what might happen. And, in real time we get more data or as we say Down South "more better" data and modeling comes into better agreement and lastly we see how the two storms rotating separately but close together are actually behaving before we are sure some areas will get more, some areas less.
I talked a blue streak on how some cities in NC in the general Raleigh Durham area will get lots of snow and some barely any. Someone here in Raleigh read my blog and comments and when there was no snow yesterday he went over to the Temple for services and refreshments after and told my husband that he read what I said and told him his wife is "good and in the future he's just gonna listen to what she says" and I chuckled. In Miami many people say that who have been through decades of hurricane seasons with me, but here in Raleigh I'm not as well known and never thought I'd be good at explaining winter storms as they were totally a mystery to me when I moved here. No one ever could seem to get the forecast right and weren't sure what we would get until the snow began falling. Like that famous Weather Rock that tells you it's raining if it's wet. That's North Carolina, unless you're living out West in the mountains.
Link below if you want to buy it on Etsy
A bit bugged doesn't say Hurricane.
But I guess if it's windy and rainy...
...and the stone is gone prob Hurricane!
Seriously how much snow do we really NEED to say we got a snow storm? In my neck of the woods we did have 3 inches. I measured all over the yard on different surfaces with a ruler. I was so cold after that little scientific experiment. I'm in the part of the Raleigh area that's further North and further West where some higher totals were recorded. I'm gonna be upset because we did not get 7 inches? Come on, if you think that you don't know me. IF we got nothing but the dry slot and I woke up to not even a dusting I'd be really upset. Very upset.
So what did we learn?
Never listen to the first forecast and believe it's carved in stone.
Never expect you will get the highest total because it showed that 4 days out.
Same way just because you are in the Cone 7 to 10 days out doesn't mean you're getting the eye.
Cones change during hurricane season.
Models change a lot before a winter storm.
I'm good. And oh by the way there are more "chances" for more winter weather later this week in the area. As always follow your local experts, check back for updates and changes to the forecast. Do not expect to get a blizzard but don't pretend you might not get a little more snow or sleet or rain..
Cause it's North Carolina, we get a little bit of everything often in one week :) Cause Mother Nature and the Polar Vortex is not done with us yet........
5 PM Update. Winter Storm Warnings. Blizzard Conditions Could Happen on the Coast for OBX. TS Force Winds, Gusts Flirt With Hurricane Force. Beach Erosion. Snow Covers Carolina. Virginia. Georgia. Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach All In it. Parts of Alabama and TN Still Recovering From an Ice Storm. Up I-95 Nearby Beach Erosion. Hunker Down Stay Safe in Frigid Single Digit Temps and Wicked Winchill!!
WRAL is very good during storms. All the news you need often live. Watch them more now than before... Good team.
Again Spectrum Weather here is awesome!
Updated info from Allan Huffman. He is on X and he has a Patreon account. Only person I follow there that should say much. He is good with snow and hurricanes. https://www.patreon.com/c/raleighwx/posts
Down the road in Fay'ville
Love Chick... he's awesome.
And current radar shows snow nearby
But other than early stray flurries...
...supposed to start late tonight*
On Earthnull you can see the storm forming.
The Coastal Low.
The pieces of the puzzle coming together.
How and where and when they interact...
... is what makes this forecast difficult.
Last frame of a loop....
...the Coastal Low shows up.
Forming....
..coming together.
*Bottom line here is we really do not know what will be until we see what will be and once all is said and done and it's deep into Sunday afternoon and the sun tries to show it's face again. We like to think we are getting perfect with forecasting, but y'all know that ain't so. There's literally a model somewhere that will show you what you want to see. That's why the snow totals are so wide and again in one area you the snow can be stolen by a "snow hole" and in another area you feel as if you had a historic storm.
Stay safe. Hunker down. Don't assume you aren't getting snow because some snow hole is temporarily over you and you decide you need to get out for some reason and then the snow hole closes and your area ends up with 7 inches of snow or more and you may have been stuck on a highway where crashes happened because that happens in NC way too often. Enjoy the beauty of a storm, time to do all those things you have been meaning to do around the house and hope and pray you don't lose electric!
Keep reading as the blog is still current and explains the many problems of forecasting this storm.
Mitch did a LIVE broadcast this afternoon answering so many questions. First time he has done one, it was awesome. Your city most likely is mentioned as everyone asked on their city. Again, no forecast is exact it's just an estimate.
Thank you for reading and following along:
Noon on Friday...
An updated map with info for Raleigh area.
Storm doesn't show up yet here...
..can see where it's about to show up.
Visible shows the elements.
The Southern part.
The Northern part.
Once they connect!
Game on!
Maybe will update images around 4 PM
See what we will see.
You can see the cold air pressing down.
The moisture flow that will feed...
...the coastal low that hasn't formed yet.
1st part of the blog is Carolinas, VA, GA
Further down are other areas that'll be impacted.
"Raleigh is in the Risky Zone.
"will depend on the Interaction
between the upper level low
and developing coastal low
5 - 10 inches"
The above is in quotes as that is what Allan Huffman says and I lean heavy on what he says as I live in Raleigh and have gotten to see first hand how incredibly accurate his maps are and well I take him seriously. Not sure if he will update later today or leave it as it is and either way we are getting closer to game on time. Sure he can be off a bit, but it's usually in shades of gray in that there's always a few details with a Carolina Snow Storm that can't be nailed down until the storm shows it's face.
Note he has parts of Virginia and Georgia in this map and that's because we really are one region broken up into separate states, but we are under the same blanket of snow falling to the ground. How strong and how steady and how much falls will tell the actual story. Will this be "wow what a real snow storm for Raleigh" or "historic" or will that tag go to places further East such as New Bern that's closer to the coast.
See this storm has many moving parts. There's a coastal low that is developing in real time and an upper level low inland. As readers of this blog know, I do so low tracking upper level lows as they can be real game changers. In this case you have two parts of a storm that will have dance moves similar to a Fujiwhara effect yet not really. And somewhere the forecast will be busted and someone may get near blizzard like conditions and someone else ends up in the dreaded dry spot deprived of the heavier snow totals the forecast showed on the colorful maps on Wednesday. It happens. It's hard enough to predict a snow storm in detail with one low, let alone two lows swirling around the same dance floor.
Yes, I did say "blizzard" conditions as the possibility is there that in some places a Blizzard Warning could be put out and again I said could as it all depends on what plays out in real time. The NWS has already mentioned blizzard conditions being possible. You don't hear that often around these parts.
Going beyond the Carolinas...
This is such a sad hit for Tennessee that is trying to recover from last week's Ice Storm and now will have areas hit by snow on top of what is dangling from the ice.
This is a screenshot from my friend Mitch...
Honestly did not listen to it all.
I don't like my mind to be muddied...
...hearing others speak too much.
So that what I put out is my own.
But I wanted the map...
..knew he'd have it.
I live in the Carolinas. This is my blog, my personal weather diary and if you read it a long time then you know sometimes I would rant or be silly or annoyed and vent in my weather diary. These days I try and stay on weather and in the off season I talk more on what I want to vs when a Cat 3 Hurricane is about to do Rapid Intensification and go Cat 5 just before before landfall. Yes this is the off season for me, a time when I lose myself in the beauty of winter, praying for winter storms and following them online. So, excuse me, if I talk too long on the Carolinas currently in my off season. Well, we do get hurricanes too in the Carolinas. Another reason I love living in NC is that we have seasons of all kinds. Miami has football season, mango season, tourist season and Hurricane Season. And, yes I do go down to Miami often to see family and friends and Biscayne Bay but the Carolinas have finally come to feel like home after 16 years here!
Back to our snow storm. Tennessee is still without power in many places. The whole infrastructure was torn apart by the last storm that was more ice than snow. Now some places will have snow as well. A very hard hit in the realm of misery loves company.
Above this general region will have impacts.
Even more so there's a coastal component.
Below the attention is on the coast.
This part of the storm is big.
This area is under the gun.
I use that phrase rarely.
Snow totals can be high.
Beach impacts will be high.
Ice hopefully not.
Maybe a drop of sleet.
Wind so strong it'll feel like...
..a Blizzard.
This storm is bigger than the Carolinas.
Bigger than Virginia.
Bigger than Georgia.
Florida has it's own impacts.
Sliver of a chance for Gulf Snow...
And our mountains get snow...
...ya know how that goes.
Elevation always matters.
Freezing cold temps in other places.
In the Super Storm of 1993...
FL was lashed with wicked, gale force winds.
Wild surf, beach erosion.
Yes Baltimore was buried in snow...
...but dangerous weather is dangerous.
With or without snow
Watching the beaches here for blizzard conditions.
NWS INFO for OBX
Yes out on the Outer Banks...
..they will have Tropical Storm winds Saturday.
Gusts near hurricane force.
Moving on down I-95 South..
Savannah could get snow.
That's really rare.
Almost moved there a while back...
...didn't work out but lack of snow ate at me.
But I do love that city.
My family has a very old history there ....
I worry on the hanging moss freezing...
...falling down again.
I love hanging moss........
As for "Up North"
Well it does snow in NY
It snows up the way.
But this is a coastal low...
...so beaches especially in it.
Lakewood NJ below
Not what we think of as beach wxr!
Stay informed.
Stay aware.
Stay prepared.
That really is all I can say now.
The time for debating a forecast is done.
Winter Storm Warnings in place!
Lastly, many had problems finding winter storm supplies for this storm as all the supplies were bought out for the Ice Storm scenario last week and even their suppliers do not have the supplies. The huge geographic area impacted means that the local hardware stores can't get "Ice Melt" because their own suppliers are out as this is the second storm in the pattern. DaBuh always says the second storm in a set is the worst one, let's see if he's right when it comes to winter weather not just surf and hurricane weather.
As for me I'm nibbling on one of the last cookies we bought at Trader Joes for last week's storm and we bought new stuff last night for this weekend's storm. Eggs were gone, I could not find any though I have left from last week. Bread was mostly out. You know how the story goes .
Winter finally showed up in the Carolinas this year and I am not complaining. Well not yet. Let's see what we get on Saturday and hopefully the electric is on and we have way deep powdery snow. The reason I mention power problems is there are a lot of trees that had a light coating up to .33 inches of ice that did not fall down, but they have damaged limbs and are in a weakened state. The back yard still has some frozen sleet in icy patchwork patterns like a quilt and it's decorated with some young, healthy green pine "candles" lying on the ground as they snapped in the ice storm that did not take the tree but did bring down healthy but young, green needles.
Stay safe. Stay inside.
Wind Chills of Zero are nothing to laugh about.
With prayers for everyone to stay safe. And for those who love snow I really hope you get so much snow. For those who hate snow... well sorry....you're reading the wrong blog.
Besos BobbiStorm
Enjoy the songs. I put in an old school and newer song. Can't find the song I wanted to put in here so will add it in later.... Lyrics were "two part harmony" and that reminded me of this two part winter storm. Some people do so love piano so going with this song that's good for our upcoming Valentines Day (will there be a Valentine's Day Blizzard this year I wonder???) but I did enjoy the second one as well...
SNOW STORM On the Way Carolinas & Virginia. Real Story Today is NOT How Many Inches BUT the Near ZERO Degree Wind Chills Sunday AM.
You know how I always say:
"NWS always opens with a low bid"
Not this time....
....according to this I could get 10 inches.
Could is the operative word here 2 days out.
This time this IS a "low opening bid" on inches as some models are crazy high and others much more realistic with what happens when a Winter Storm Warning in the RDU area busts. But a bust can go either way as those who were here in 2000 and had over 20 inches after a forecast of your typical nice dusting busted high. That was 26 years ago and we are better at nailing down the multiple factors that make nailing down a forecast for snow in the Raleigh area of NC. And, when I say "Raleigh area" know the extension of "that area" known as Central North Carolina borders Virginia on the North and South Carolina on our South as seen in the graphic below.
Yes Mitch does wake up early.
Tries to get this out early for people to read ...
...with their coffee!
This set up is about cold air diving down into our region squeezed between tight isobars that could make the winds stronger and the wind chill Sunday AM an even ZERO degrees. This is from the NWS in Raleigh and based on their forecast discussion not some kid on Tic Toc screaming at you or someone designing a cute AI map and adding in ZERO to get your attention.
So let's focus on the abnormally dangerous Wind Chills more and less on the exact expected inches of snow as no one knows even if they think they have a finely tuned crystal ball it's a prediction not a forecast.
In NC we have had dry cold air for days. We have had very little rain this Winter and little rain this Fall. Virga falls gracefully from the sky and though we know it's there, we can't see it as it evaporates on it's way down through the dry layers up in the atmosphere. When you get an extremely WET moist system that sucked in moisture from the Gulf (as we saw recently) it amps up the moisture across the once parched atmosphere, however that is not really this particular type of system.
Snow Holes ... Dry Slots....are transitory features that set up in real time somewhere in the coverage area and while your sister who lives to neighborhood over is getting buried in snow higher than she has ever seen it's possible you are wondering what happened to the snow. They move around, set up in real time, sometimes anchor themselves over an area like North Hills in Raleigh but up the road closer to Strickland where Goodberry's Ice Cream is located they have barely anything falling from the sky. Their flavor today is "Pistachio" I checked in case any of you feel the need for Ice Cream before the storm.
When we had the Clipper a few weeks back and we were all expecting snow, a friend near Crabtree asked me if I got any, as she didn't really. I told her it snowed for about an hour, very pretty. That's Raleigh. Durham gets more consistent snow they have a bit higher elevation and latitude, tho nearby it snows there and misses Raleigh. Zebulon out in the country gets heavy snow. The heat island of Raleigh and sometimes RDU from all that exhaust makes for higher temperatures in the summer and dry slots in the winter. There's some logic, but they are very hard to predict so don't blame the weather people.
And that is this area in North Carolina. Hard to know for sure what you will see in your yard and on your rooftop. But, what we do know is it could be six inches and it could be ten and IF you are in a "dry slot" you may get 3 or 4 inches. Some models flirt with the inches up in the teens I am not going there this morning. I am not being difficult nor refusing to give my opinion. This is my opinion based on living here now for over 16 years and finally having understood why it is so difficult to nail down a forecast this far out.
So your bottom line here is to do what you gotta do.
Make a list.
Check last week's list for the last snow/sleet/ice storm.
This will be SNOW so that we know.
(maybe a little sleet or freezing rain somewhere for a hot minute in this wide area)
Stock up on basics.
Make sure you have your medications filled.
Water, drinks, snacks, canned food and a good hand operated can opener. Peanut Butter ....
Flashlights, batteries, candles (used very safely)
First Aid kit obviously.
Take out your warmest blankets (in my case I didn't put them away, under the covers as I type here)
This is not a drill (as Dabuh says) and know that my husband walked into the house just now and said "it feels way colder than 25 degrees out there!!" and he was raised in upstate NY where he took his skis with him to school to go skiing after school and usually says "nippy out there" he is not a Miami boy.
But there are many Miami boys and girls who have moved up here the last few years, driving around with their Gator license plates on their cars parked at Publix and I'm guessing Publix will fill out really soon. They have not seen a REAL Raleigh Snow Storm. Many of those newbie Gators are clueless that it really, really snows in a cold Carolina Winter and so this really is a cold NORTH Carolina Winter. That goes for those from NY, NJ and Maine who moved here to get "away from the snow" they will soon find out it really does snow in the Carolinas.
For every extra inch of snow on the ground you can extrapolate the time it will take for us to get back to "normal" especially with the cold wind chills after the storm and cold temperatures in general with it only warming up above zero for a hot minute or two in the late afternoon, before diving back down as the sun begins to set!
More later as forecasts and models begin to align with a realistic forecast.
Again don't obsess on inches. Raleigh has crashed to a total halt from one inch on an icy road and made headlines nation wide. I've heard what it does when they got 20 inches and I was here for close to ten when I first moved here and thought that was normal. Learned the next few snowless years it was not normal, so at least I know. School was closed all week that first wild snow storm of about 8 to 10 inches.
It's not about size today.
It's about how cold it will be after the storm once the Polar Express zooms into town.
We could have power outages for multiple reasons so keep that in mind even though it's not as scary a forecast as the ICE STORM that turned into a sleet storm and most of us kept our power on.
More to come...
I did not listen but will soon. It's a good video as I know Mitch and have seen what he's posted on X.
I will talk on the rest of the area later today, maybe tonight. This will move up the coast and the jury is still out how close it comes to a major mess or an offshore mess. For now this region of the country is in the bulls eye for what would be an epic, possibly historic Snow Storm for some part of this area.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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