Does a Piece of Energy From THE FRONT Get Trapped Near the Coast? Maybe, Small Possibility. Thoughts on "The Blob" N of PR. And High Pressure On the Move....For July 4th!!! Gonna Be a Hot One!

 

Why the odd look for this area of interest with the 10% X on the edge of the yellow circle? Simple, its in the process of fully coming off the coast of NC as the front plops into the water near the Gulfstream and the models see some possible development. The circle is the area of formation where IF it forms it could form. The general set up weather wise is that a strong, heat dome sets up over the Carolinas, VA, DC (basically the East Coast) and it gets nudged to the South as it's drifting out to sea.... the High expands and shoves it back a bit towards parts of the Florida coast. 

Now that is the set up. If you were a screenwriter these notes would be on a board with ideas, many ideas for various scenes. It's currently more a tropical dream, or even a subtropical dream and with the "feels like" temperatures flirting with 109 degrees often it's totally understandable that the EURO and everyone else is now dreaming of a tropical system that would cool us all off and provide our farms some much needed rain.  Do models dream? Good question. Well we know the GFS dreams so perhaps now the EURO is dreaming with higher chances than the NHC is conservatively giving it. 

Water vapor, Ye Olde black & white one...

...always awesome for sniffing out energy.

The front was fun!

Strong, heavy rain.

Needed rain.

Cooler temperatures!

Cooler meaning barely 90 today ...

...vs 98 degrees. 

Currently we see where weather is flaring up.

In this 5 day map below...

..note the placement of the High.

It's like that relative who came for dinner....

...stayed over night.

Has not left 3 days later.

It's that guy at the Chinese Buffet...

... piling his food high up on his plate.

Takes that "all you can eat" sign seriously!

The High is hungry.

The high wants to expand......

...way beyond Bermuda.

It's moving to Florida!

Maybe visit Texas (j/k)

Now let's talk about the blob.

The blob everyone is asking about.

On Mike's Weather Page...

...it's SCREAMS "look at me!!"

Beware of the blob!

Note the long frontalboundary

Part drifts off... part lingers near the coast.

There is the blob below.
It's mixing it up with an ULL
ULL tickles it and sparks convection.

This is why it's so bright and blobby.

That's an inside joke but in a mood.

Seriously tho the MIMIC shows the story.

1. Note the front in orange that has moved off the Carolina Coast.

2. Next note part of it is moving out to sea (to the right)
3. Now note part of it is lingering near the coast. (yes saying "note" too much)

4. See the blue (dry air high pressure) pressing down on the top of the orange?

5. See the wave train stretched low from Africa to South America.

6. Blob is less visible here & part of that energy is being sucked off into the flow to it's North.

7. Obviously some of the wave moves West with that flow into the Carib.. maybe EPAC.

8. The Bermuda High moves West towards Florida.

9. Pushes any remnant moisture of the front into Florida. The Carolinas bake with record heat.

That's really the whole story.... 

Yes there's a chance. 

Heck according to the EURO (once King) there is a big chance.

AI models backed off on it... will see what the next few runs show.

We will see what really happens in real time.

So was we say in Carolina: "Whatchy'all doin for July 4th??" 

Being American and being this year's set up we basically are all celebrating the whole week I suppose as many are taking long vacations I have noticed. (I said noticed, not note)

Stay aware of the weather at the beaches and the rip currents and thunder may roar as temperatures climb, depending on your location.

It's gonna be a hot one!

So stay hydrated!

Besos BobbiStorm

20% Yellow Circle Off the SE Coast. Caribbean Earthquakes Keep Happening. Could it Be 106 Degrees in DC on July 4th? Stay Cool... Pray for Rain.

 

So the possible development....
...at the tail end of the front is official.

Not officially happening.

But not just speculation.

This is really a very classic set up. It can happen early in El Nino years where we see close in development along the SE Coast in this area known as the Georgia Bight. It's that little cove like space between the Carolinas, Georiga and Northern Florida that invites development early in the season. Could happen. I can't rule it out. For now some models favor it and others barely see it. So we are going to watch.

Note using the word "cold front" is really a misnomer, but the temperatures moderate for a day or two and hang high in the 80s vs high in the 90s or worse in the triple digits. Below is the "weather map" for Monday. I do so love maps. Current modeling shows it possibly forming and backing up ...retrograding West into one of those lucky areas along the coast. North Florida/Georgia/SC should watch the possibilities as they evolve over the weekend. Some welcome rain to moderate the temperatures would be awesome. 

And, I just want to mention that while we are expecting a quiet hurricane season in the Caribbean, if all goes as planned during this El Nino, know that things are not all that quiet currently geologically. Heartbreaking killer earthquakes in Venezuela with a current death toll of 1,430 people and close to 68,000 missing. That death toll figure is sadly changes rapidly. Some are honestly dead missing in the rubble and many are unable to contact anyone, seperated from family and friends. It's not just buildings that collapsed it is the whole infrastruture. Nothing is normal there as you can imagine and some are simply missing and others are dead. The earthquake happened around 6 PM. Many people were home, many may have been out shopping on the way home or eating dinner.... really horrible. But in general Caribbean plates are active currently. 

That's it. Will update later on Sunday.

Stay cool, let's hope for the best and not the worst for high temperatures on July 4th across a good part of the USA.  The EURO models for July 4th is below.  106 degrees forecast for Washington DC! Also note out West there are high fire dangers and fireworks are restricted in those areas. Seriously pray for rain.

Stay cool.

Stay hydrated.

Stay aware.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Earthquakes. Heat Dome. Saharan Dust. Tropics Quiet Aside From Geologically..........

 

While there is still chatter about the small chance of something trying to spin up close in off the Florida coast, there really is not much to talk about. The Atlantic is dealing with SAL and the water there is not prime time for development. Late June is usually a snooze fest, unless some random wave tries and go the distance. Above you see a huge High ...a double barrel high pressure zone across the Southeast. Currently, unless something changes there's talk it could be close to 105 degrees a next week. Happy 4th of July if you like really hot weather! I do not. I am not a happy camper. I'm a Fall and Winter person personally.

EURO says 102 degrees next Friday

106 degrees in Raleigh as per GFS.

Good old GFS

Shows DC with 102 on July 4th.

Never saw a forecast it couldn't hype.

There's really not much to say other than when a heat dome clamps down on the South sometimes something can try and form beneath it and that is what long range models are fantasizing on. I'm just telling it like it is..

Have a good weekend! Perhaps Sunday I'll be in the mood to write a longer blog looking at blobs and SAL and what could happen in July. 

The quake in Venezuela is really terrible. The quakeS are terrible. Just no words. The images remind me very much of Champlain Tower South where I once ran the office years back and where I have close friends living ...who died in the collapsed tower. Just being honest, this is my online weather diary, so yeah it's been hard to watch the coverage. 

What is freaky is it was exactly five years ago when the condo built to withstand a Category 5 collapsed killing 98 people. 

5 years later to the day.

How freaky is that?

I can't talk about it. 

So not watching too much coverage.

Tho I do love geology, it's fascinating.

So between El Nino, SAL, Heat Domes and multiple earthquakes in the Caribbean there's lots to talk about but nothing too tropical.  But never say never.  

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Brings to mind this song...
....this video from a Broadway play.
Made into a movie.

Many think the world is coming to an end!

Or the Caribbean?

Just Earth rumbling like always.

Enjoy the video... awesome soundtrack.

Studied drama, studied dance.

Awesome soundtrack!

Raining in Raleigh. Tropical Wave in SW Carib. Nothing Expected to Develop .... But Hey It RAINED HEAVY in Raleigh Tropics Quiet in Atlantic Basin

 

The High hangs on....

Li'l Low in SW Carib.

This is for tomorrow.... 

...not much different from today.

Brown is for dryer than normal.

It's very brown

It's so brown it could be the New...

....Natasha Denona Tan Eye Shadow Pallete 

Just saying.

but it did rain in Raleigh today.

Poured ... was awesome..

and then it moved on.

Nice to get real rain.

Stay tuned.

But for now tropics in the Atlantic are dead.

They won't stay dead.

And there is a strong tropical wave....

...producing tropical rain showers.

But nothing more 

From Zoom Earth

And you can see The Front made it!

Well into the Tidewater States anyway!!

Kind of says it all

Sweet Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

 

always liked Gary Allan

does great weather songs ;)

The Dirty Side of El Nino. Huge High Shuts Down the Atlantic This Week. So Hot it's Even HOT in Denver!

 

That's all I need to show you.
Don't need to show the NHC.

Nothing out there.

I took the weekend off from weather and the blog. Raleigh weather has been stifling hot and unbearable. The evenings are almost pleasant, sometimes even a small breeze that tries to convince you tomorrow won't be another day from hell. But I've seen the forecast and know the models intimately so yeah, that's not happening. And, I'll add that this is turning into the summer from hell being brought to you by El Nino. Droughts turn into fires and crops die in parts of the South where the rain is not falling. 

Again El Nino is not the hero in the story. El Nino is a bad boy that comes on the scene in the Spring, builds in the Summer and shows his power in the Fall and usually December is closer to Prime Time. But, the real question is will this be a short lived El Nino or a long term El Nino? Google it. Lost of stories, studies of the 1997 El Nino. In 1997 the El Nino went so far West it covered the Pacific and Indonesia and parts of Austrailia got the worst of it. Yes, you don't always hear much about that in Georgia or Kentucky unless you have friends or relatives there. The news is very ethnocentric and focuses on stories that will sell and so they don't tell you the whole story.

1992 was the tail end of an El Nino.

Still it's a common El Nino signature.

Nothing in the Carib.

North Atlantic activity.

Andrew almost died crossing the Atlantic.

They were "this close" to pulling the plug.

Waited one more advisory...

...Andrew lived to tell the tale.

2026 is a tale that is just about to show it's face and we will see what this El Nino really does, but I can feel it and see it in the hot breeze that dries out the soil and is killing crops already. 

We will see.  Check out the graphic below from Windy.com that is set to the temperature filter for this Wednesday at 5 PM.

Yellow is warm.

Orange is hot.

Rusty orange is very hot.

You can make out the Appalachian Mounts.

Sliver of yellow.

You can see the highest mountains out West....

...shades of gold.

It's a HOT SUMMER

And it's gonna get hotter in some places.

See those temps for the weekend!

I suppose the low temps are the tell..

That's for Denver, Colorado.

Not Miami.

Not Savannah.

Not Houston.

Anyway I just felt the need to be honest. It would be wonderful if "we" did not get any horrible landfalls this Hurricane Season in the USA but it's not just about the USA and it's not just about hurricanes. A simple reminder that one of the biggest killers is a Heat Wave. People have to work outside the in the heat. People have to commute in the heat. People have to walk the dog in the heat! You can't hide inside forever and the cost of your electric bill only soars and as crops die the prices of basic foods go up.

But hey........it looks like the 2026 Hurricane Season won't be that busy! High FIVE!  

High heat, no relief in sight. Fires burning. Crops dying. But all many think about is whether or not the Hurricane Season will be busy or slow. And, it only takes one in a slow season as we know as we had Michael and Flo (Florence) and Andrew and the list goes on. 

Pray for rain or do a rain dance, whatever you believe will work!

There's two sides to every story and the ugly side of El Nino is not being talked about much. But if it is as bad, as strong as most expect it to be then you will be hearing about the other side of El Nino, the ugly side.

Stay cool. Stay hydrated. 

I know two people who had to go to the ER for "feeling sick" and they are smart people and yet they were dehydrated. They thought sipping a Diet Coke would keep them hydrated enough. What can I say. They were wrong. Luckily it was only dehydration and caught in time. They are currently drinking water and guzzling Gatorade. 

So you might want to buy El Nino Supplies! Lots of beverages. No not Red Bull (though they do have some good flavors) okay maybe a Red Bull for emergencies. But drink a lot. By the time you feel as if you're about to pass out and can't walk, the damage has been done so do not let yourself get to that point. Stay hydrated. Water bottles are not just for the gym or talking long walks. Plan out your activities if you can as many who work outside cannot. Check on the neighbors who might be elderly or ill. If you are prone to Asthma, keep your inhaler on you and try to lay low if you can on the hottest days. And, yes I know someone who died because she didn't have her inhaler on her... as young kids are want to do thinking they will be fine. 

Stay fine!

The High that owns the Atlantic.

Nothing to say about the tropics. The huge High Pressure in the Atlantic is working in coordination with Saharan Dust to suck all of the moisture out of the tropical waves. Again, a good percentage of rain that feels the crops in the heartland get is from westbound tropical waves that did not develop, but stayed alive intact to get up into the Mississippi Valley and rain on corn, peanuts, sweet potatoes and wheat! And, there's a big problem with Hay and that's nothing to laugh about.

So check back tomorrow. 

Gotta make dinner. 

Any action is in the EPAC as it is usually this time of year.

It's a cute song but the hot weather is not cute

Not this hot... 78 degrees is sweet!

Arthur Exits Stage Right.............. Finally. Lost Power This Morning ... from Arthur's Remnants Go Figure. Power Fixed. Bermuda High Reigns Over the Atlantic.

'

State of the tropics today....

Friday, June 19th, 2026

A big ball of convection over Texas

And a new wave off Africa with lots of color

In between is one huge High Pressure.

Wave train staying low... 

...riding Southern rim of the High.

Fronts exit stage right off of America....

...sail high above the High in the N ATL

I know we have El Nino

But this is the HIGH playing defense.

It would not allow a goal to get thru...

...if it was playing Hockey.

NHC marked the spot with a X

Zero% Chance

X Arthur

For posterities sake I guess.

Earthnull shows a disturbance in the force...

...but nothing more.

Don't know what to tell you except have a great weekend! Enjoy the calm quiet period. At some point something will try and spin up and similar to other El Nino years the shear will blow the tops off of the tropical waves and it will be next to impossible to form. Some will get through, as that's the way things work in the Tropics even in Super El Nino years.

There's a huge clean up in the Gulf states that dealt with TS Arthur. Flooding was pervasive and costly across a huge area. Wind damage in some places will be costly to clean up and takes time. The Tornado that touched down near New Orleans will have a price tag. There were a few deaths attributed to the storm from flooding; driving into flooded areas especially at night are one of the most common causes of deaths during a storm be it a weak tropical storm such as Arthur or a Major Hurricane. Louisiana and Mississippi had over 20 inches of rain in some spots in a few days time. Some estimates in the most severe areas were closer to 30 inches. I have not spent much time looking through statistics, but they were from people I trust. In Raleigh most areas got a good two inches which is awesome, but it's only a start in trying to erase the drought. I'm happy.

On a personal level in Raleigh I was without electric today from 7 AM until close to Noon. Yes, from weather related to the remnants of Arthur. We had high winds last night and heavy rain, this morning we had strong thunderstorms. Supposedly something got hit by lightning and equipment was thrown offline and had to be replaced and restored. I don't know. I went to Target. I trusted we would get power back. A minor problem and nothing compared to what is going on in parts of the South. I was offline for a long time as it knocked the cable company off and for some reason TMobile barely had one bar for much of the day here. Life goes on... not a huge concern.  The parade for the Carolina Hurricanes is tomorrow in downtown Raleigh that is literally the biggest news in town.

So that's it. 

Here in Raleigh the bucket trucks...

..are for the signs for the parade tomorrow.

Along the Gulf they are working hard.

 Downtown Raleigh Alliance posted the pic!

There's talk the MJO may show up soon.

Well in the eventual near future.

Til then nothing on the horizone.

Sweet Trpoical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere whatever

Ps Irony.

I knew there was a movie Arthur.

So I looked for the theme song.

Had no idea this was the song.

Who knew?

I guess not me......

...don't think I saw the movie ever.

But it plays on Oldie Goldie channels

Christopher Cross

figures.

Yes There ARE Tropical Waves Swimming Hard Trying to Get Across the Atlantic ...Been Ignoring Them... So This Blog is For You. But... Today Is All About Arthur's Leftovers... June Too Soon For African Wave Train Right Now.

 

Note to my teenage self:  

Do not fall for it! Yes it's a cute little wave, it's looks happy and alert, and still has some nice colorful convection while it looks out towards where it wants to go and thinks it can hide from the shear by the entrance of the Caribbean and just slide under the Saharan Dust. Yes, I know it's so cute and you love African Waves. 

Rolling eyes........
..........okay it has a cute li'l pink heart.

I'll admit it wears it's heart on it's sleeve.

Ain't happening.

Focus elsewhere.... 

Just trust me on this....

but sure keep dreaming on tropical dreams.....

...just don't say I didn't warn ya

That was fun!

Thanks if you read this :)

Note to current self:

Watch out for severe weather ...

..& hopefully no nighttime tornadoes in NC today.

But please let it rain!!

BobbiStorm 

Remnants of Arthur Spawn a Confirmed Tornado in New Orleans. Tornado Warnings Up in the South All Morning. Midwest Tornado Weather Still Going Strong This Morning. NHC Gives X Arthur 10% Chances off Reformation in the Atlantic. Low Chances But A Chance. Stay Tuned. Busy Weather Day.

 

Our land loving Arthur is still causing trouble this morning as a Tornado Warning went up in New Orleans this morning and the NHC hoisted a yellow X over the Mississippi River with an arrow pointing to an area where Arthur may reform once back in the Atlantic. The models have suggested this and late yesterday the NHC actually mentioned it in their advisory for Arthur in the discussion. It's been on the table on social media and in discussion between weather people and officially now from the NHC.  It's an opening 10% bid in the tropical version of the game Jeopardy!  And, as always, we just have to watch, wait and see what evolves in reality.

I'll be honest when looking at the tilted structure of Invest 90L and what was stacked against it I felt it probably had a better had a chance as a Low off the Carolinas of getting a name then in BOC or the Gulf. But as I have said before I've seen garbage looking Invests get upgraded just before landfall in the BOC or as they struggle towards land in the Gulf. In this case, 90L preferred land over the warm, tropical waters of the Gulf go figure. The name is gone, the official floater is down but his remnants remain and any damages or God Forbid deaths attributed will be associated with the remnants of Arthur. 

While the NHC has pulled the plug on Arthur, for now, or let's say put it "on pause" we may not be done with it yet. While TS Arthur lacked a cohesive center it has delivered the forecasted punch of flooding, severe weather and tornadoes. Our night of tornadoes in Indiana hours ago has evolved into our morning of tornadoes in both the South and the Midwest. But nothing is more compelling as a tornado that is doing more damage on the ground in the New Orleans general region than many Category 1 Hurricanes would ever do. Lots of ironies here, but there's time to think on that later when Arthur has moved on from this part of the Mississippi River. Weather is weather. Severe Weather is severe weather. Tornadoes happen.

As I type this there is now a tornado warning for Picayune. I've said countless times, there is more to be feared from a messy, sheared minimal Tropical Storm at times than most Category 1 Hurricanes. The word Hurricanes makes people sit up and listen; prepare and pay attention and take precautions. Hurricanes often are tightly wound with a cohesive center and move along a specific path in the Cone. A barely there Tropical Storm or remnants of splashes tornado warnings across a wide area in a patchwork pattern that really has no pattern. And, after days of torrential rain there are areas flooded with stalled out cars that were taken by surprise of the actual intensity of the weather associated with Arthur. 

They may have pulled the floater...

...but the weather from X Arthur remains.

Gotta love Tropical Tidbits.....

..if you use them send them some cash love.

Takes a lot to run his incredible site.

Going wider .... 

Weather popping everywhere.

Dangerous Weather 

Speaking of dangerous weather...

...and the NHC yellow arrow.

Where ever X Arthur goes...

..trouble seems to follow.

In the Carolinas we are watching for rain.

We need rain.

We don't need tornadoes....

...but we definitely need rain!

Busy weather day today across the USA

Lots of pretty crayons being used here.
Much not very pretty weather.

Special emphasis on Tornado Warnings

Down South in Nola

Up North in MidWest Cities.

And this all moves East in some fashion.

Note the eastward trend here...

One of my favorite NC meteorologists.

Allan Huffman showing increased chance...

...for rain in Raleigh.

Someone could get 2-3 inches of rain he says.

Could indeed but who?

He adds in on X a chance of tornadoes.

Low but no one wants a tornado.

Nighttime Tornadoes happen in NC.

A map is shown above of the Nola Tornado!

Literally cut straight across the river...

sliced through the heart of New Orleans!!

Pay attention to weather warnings today

Not just wherever Arthur's remnants go..

...but to the North across a wide area.

Stay tuned.

Weather associated with the Remnants of Arthur

...may not be over from a tropical perspective.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Ps remember Bayous flood fast.

Heavy oak branches snap....

...pines go crack filling the air

with the smell of pine