A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Models Develop Next Set of Waves Off Africa. GFS Sees Several Storms. EURO Sees 1. Lots of Models. Lots of Waves. Game Is NOT Over!
This is new. We now have an area in the Atlantic ...where development is favorable.
Or at least suggested by NOAA to be a little bit favorable.
It's a start. All beginnings need a start and this is the time of year when usually waves begin to actually connect and move forth rather than sputtering out dead in the water. Talk on the street is that this is the wave over Africa that has the best chance to develop. Some models develop both waves, of course, but others only take this one seriously. The long range models we have been watching are getting closer to medium range models and so we take them a bit more seriously.
It is a big wave. IR is dramatic.
WV shows us how much moisture it really has...
That's a whole lotta moisture. The test will be after it dives into the water.
We are definitely watching.
This is the EURO.
I like to show the EURO first.
This would be typical for a solid El Nino Year.
Turns fast, sweeps up into the Atlantic.
Sunday the GFS develops the lead wave.
That's the 1st good wave.
On the 27th (Thurday) it develops the 2nd one.
Note out of site closer in... ...the GFS has the lead wave off the E Coast.
Curving away, but bringing nice waves.
Many see this as a threat to New England.
others in NC see this as a threat to NC
Somewhere someone sees this as a threat to Bermuda.
(they probably have a cruise planned)
And that is how we get here...on Sept 3rd.
We have a series of waves that pull further North than the last, move up into the Atlantic a bit more and seem scheduled for recurvature closer in to the USA. And IF these waves developed some we still have to watch as storms that take a track WNW more N of WNW that take them up and OVER the Islands put them in a position where they can make landfall close in IF the high suddenly pushes them West or a forecast cold front fizzles and that's how we got Andrew. And, Florence was a totally different storm from most and yet she made landfall in the Carolinas taking a track at a higher latitude where that year the water was very warm and provided fuel for her to fight off shear.
Oh look there was Andrew.
Expected to be a Carolina storm probably.
Because of a strong cold front....
...that wasn't so strong and fizzled.
Hurricane Florence 2018
Many said she'd never make it across.
No way, fizzle from shear.
I said she would because it was obvious
When a storm fights off shear over and over....
....and keeps on going.
Those are the ones - you have to watch.
So stay aware, stay prepared.
And have an awesome day!
Time will tell...
Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
X mostly weather, elsewhere whatever.
A song from the Summer of 2018
(ps Florida Georgia Line are back now... )
I knew I hadn't written a blog in a few days, but didn't realize it was so long. Well, long for me, but here I am trying to find something to talk on that is more than just talk. Images from Lala have been feeding in and the immensity of their tragedy is apparent. When water runs downhill carrying rocks made from cooled lava on a slick river bed or even an stream bed that is usually empty the water runs fast, very fast and carries boulders with it and well we saw this in Helene in North Carolina. Each hurricane is different, each story is different and yet they all have their commonalities.
Hawaii Drama......... Lala Hits the Mtns of Hawaii .... No Landfall But Definitely Did Hawaii. NHC Says Nada for 7 Days in Atlantic!
Lala did become a hurricane. She did not make "landfall" tho she definitely "hit Hawaii' in multiple ways. And, I'll add Hawaii hit her hard. Her signature was definitely disrupted or rather rearranged as she came up against an island that is a mountain peak that is over 13,000 feet high and lava formed landscape where water races down the river beds fast the way water races downhill fast as it did in Helene. Different geologically and less trees seem to have fallen though at some point I stopped watching videos. A very close "almost" landfall, and yet as expected the center of the eye, the eye mostly stayed off land as the eyewall inched inland. Touching, the way guys would say the car had to "kiss" the curb before they were done parking.
Yeah... looked better I'm sure before ...
Literally hits a wall.
Flash Flooding concerns.
The NHC pulled the plug on the Wave Train..
...that the models loved so much.
Knew that wasn't verifying.
I said, numerous times, the models have been wonky and developing each new wave off Africa the way they developed the last wave. You can see below where the SAL is and where the remnants of 92L and 94L are and giving special kudos to 92L as it's moisture is still very noticable. I didn't believe 92L would develop in any way, yet I did believe it could make it into the Islands as a wave. You can't have it both ways. IF a wave begins to develop, it will want to pull more to the North and if it doesn't, it just keeps going westbound. The islands really needed rain so this was a blessing. Where it goes next, I don't know. Maybe it rains itself out or it finds a friendlier enviroment. As for 94L no that did not go well, infact I knew the whole time 92L was going to go further than 94L ever would based on satellite imagery and knowing hurricane history. I am not sure why the models, the many models, were so bad and it became apparent with the 3rd Wave at least that they were on replay every, single time.
Below you can see X92L
You can see a dangling front.
And old wave as well.
Sticking with the close in concept personally.
The long range GFS does take a stab at the end of August as being a time when a few African waves have a better chance and one goes into stealth mode in the Caribbean (close to where X92L is now) and then comes to life very close in near Florida, North of say PR and again this is very, very long range modeling. Do I believe it? Yes, no and maybe. What we look at long range modeling for is not specifics, but a trend and a pattern. And, that's the only thing I really look to the very, very long range GFS. But it's something.
Then it tries and develop one behind it.
But it doesn't try and develop them in the MDR
And for that reason.... this may verify more..
..than the ones that were running before.
To be fair the EURO was more...
...into them then the GFS go figure.
2026 funny year.
Old front draped, dead in the water ...
...that can spin things up close in.
small support, but NHC not interested.
New wave off of Africa.
Not much to see.
Back to Lala.
It's snowing at 13,000 feet high.
Snow and a hurricane.
And a volcano.......
Lala is really a lesson in geology and geography, two subjects I love almost as much as meteorology and they are all entwined together in Earth Science. Add in oceanography to explain the colder currents out there in the tropics near Hawaii. I had been wondering early on, if this would be a year like 1992 when Iniki made a run for the roses in Hawaii with the help of an El Nino. With 2026 being a Super El Nino I figured Hawaii had a chance for a close encounter of the hurricane kind. Smiling, personal joke.
Anyway... I took a walk today as it was hot, but not as unbearable as it will be later this week. I know the heat does have an expiration date on it in the Carolinas, but I really wish it would make a fast exit and let us move on with Fall. I wanna wear my leggings with boots that look cute with my little skirts and live in my big black Victoria's Secret hoodie and sip Pumpkin Spice Latte which is one step closer to my favorite Cream Brulee Latte and light lots of candles around the house that smell of burnt leaves, tobacco, cedar, whatever I buy when I go on a Fall Shopping Spree soon!
Honestly I am so over Summer. Growing up in Florida I had all the Summer I ever needed. That said ther's a Barnes and Noble opening up in Midtown Miami near my daughter in late October, so I do see a trip to Miami in my future and yes in love with her Goldendoodle. By the way, almost all the girls there have them and that's good cause they are so cute!! It's a very cute Barbie like world. Well as long as we don't get hit by a hurricane back home in Miami this year so keep praying they go somewhere else and keep in mind if you know where I live you know where to send them. Would really, really love to chase a strong Tropical Storm at Wrightsville Beach this year ...not on a weekend. If I had my wishes come true.......those are some of them. A tropical storm chase in NC by the beach, a trip to Miami to see my kids, my family and hang out with Nala the Mini Goldendoodle and other things I am not saying ...
Lala Likely to be a Hurricane by Hawaii ...either way Hawaii Getting Storm Impacts Atlantic Wave Train ... Not Bad for Super El Nino Year but NADA Happening Soon.
I'm going to pretend this is 2004 or 2014 and just write a bit. This is the wave train that many tried to convince us would never happen. It's a healthy wave train, considering there's still SAL and there's shear there and more than shear there and sher that the waves are heading into the Canary Current has been a bit wonky....and yet they are sailing West.
Lead wave aka 92L is way healthier than the NHC would have you believe, because it did not intensify according to plans and models that made no sense and so it was downgraded fast and they upgraded 94L just as fast. Everyone was all excited about 92L originally and it had beautiful spin. Then 94L came and the models jumped all over it like a sexy girl the first day at High School in a mini skirt. But in truth it's a copy of 92L and I don't think either are anything to really talk about ....but it's 2026 and we don't have a lot to talk about so .... here I am trying to find something to talk about. Oh, and there's a new wave behind 92L and 94L so it's like twins, triplets.... #sendhelp
They pulled the plug on 92L and yet...
...it looks best to me.
Oh look.........there's a new wave.
Moving on...
Mimic......
In truth thats a lot of moisture all things being equal.
NHC is pretending 92L doesn't exist.
Okay, whatever.
Moving on to the Pacific
Did I mention it I was 98 degrees in Raleigh today.
Not feels like but for real 98.
I do not want to know about "feels like"
everyone needs to "just stop" with the
FEELS LIKE 119
Enough.
1. Note bulk of moisture is to the South.
2. The center could make landfall.
3. Jury is still out ...will see tomorrow.
Zoom Earth is so awesome
Here...I'll zoom in for you.
TWC went from direct hit landfall on the big Island
to
Strong impacts even IF they don't get a direct landfall.
92L at 80% Chances Red But NHC Not Blinking Yet... 94L Behind It.. Models Always Love the New Wave! Hawaii on Watch... Who Do U Believe In 2026? Which Model Gets It Rgith?
Again using my Mike does the Tropics Art Work.
Oh look Louie the dog.......gets into the show. Invests 92L & 94L on the map.
93L is now TD Cristobal.
Subtropics hot ....
...Caribbean is not.
Summertime and the living is NOT easy. Whoever made up that song lived somewhere like Minnesota or maybe Canada and they didn't have to dig out from mile high snow! Trust me it ain't easy Down South in an El Nino year and Lord it's been crazy hot out in Colorado and Montana. I'm much more into Autumn Leaves falling and the sun puts on cool shades and you can breathe again and the Fall air with falling leaves put a glow into my golden world of wonder!
Let's talk Tropics. What can you say about models that fall in love with the next wave off of Africa every few days. I've never seen models crushing on every, early August wave in an El Nino Year as much as this year. They keep promising a big storm spinning into the Caribbean, against all logic and every wave goes the way ever other wave seems to have gone....and that is not the way the models said it might. That said, maybe ... you never know. Note the same models are hitting Hawaii with Hurricane Lala, and yet the big main island of Hawaii has never been hit by a hurricane directly. Then again this is Super El Nino so you never know.
Staying with Mike ..we are loyal friends!
Invest 92L W into Carib (??)
Invest 93L turns more up ...
...the way earlier waves didn't.
Either way question remains...
North of Islands..
East of Florida
SE of OBX
????
I do think in time
that is the zone where we worry.
Where we could have a big storm.
Some day this season...
...Remember September!
This is a close up of Dvorak Loop 92L
In ways I like it.
It's consistent.
Big wave, small center
Sliding West ...currently.
Not there yet it seems...
Image above from Zoom Earth, awesome site.
...so no PTC with this one tho is 80%
And yet.........this graphic says Nada!
So who is right and who is wrong?
which model gets it right?
Note I get why waves would stay West...
High is in defense mode.
Should be defensive player of the year...
...IF we don't get a hurricane.
But still weak West...
...should give it up to the shear there.
So stay tuned.
I'm going out for a while early today before it hits 100 degrees so there may be Ice Cream in my day or my regular Float this summer as that has been my drink of the day...Coke Float. If you know me, you know me and you're smiling. I'm consistent. If NHC is consistent they will upgrade 92L while I am not near the computer and semi offline ... staring at my phone and rolling my eyes.
11 AM 45 MPH Cristobal Forms in N ATL! Eclipse Day! 2 Invests 92L &93L 80% Red on 92L Does it Become Dolly? PTC One-C Talk on Hawaii Getting Hit By a Hurricane But....Will It?
Ha!l Thought it might get that C name!
Will update with info throughout the day.
So let's focus on 92L for now, til then
visible imagery shows circulation
Weak, but there.
In truth I thought it was a TS last night
....looping before I fell asleep.
Will discuss PTC One-C way below.
Staying with 92L that could become Dolly.
Starting with Mike today and typing while he's talking, as hearing Mike's voice puts me in a good playful mood. These are the players. I like this map, better than the NHC but when they upgrade it to TD (if they do) I'll definitely show "THE CONE" from NHC IF 92L gets an upgrade!
But I woke up to Invests and to be honest, that's a lot considering how deader than a doornail the Atlantic was expected to be by many.
I was curious, I mean what is a doornail?
Now you know, now we know.
Moving on back to tropics.
Always thought Cristobal would be the N ATL system.
Weather happens in real time, remember that.
Models are maybe, NHC is forever.
So staying with our Wave Train for now...
Anyway the focus here today is on 92L
Will 92L get an upgrade?
She's far out there... well "it" for now.
Big waves take longer to pull together.
That is a factor here.
Let's look at the wider view of our Wave Train.
I screenshot this because....
to show the actual pattern of this wave train. So we have new wave in a bright red dress.
Then we have 92L lacking convection
Remnants of last wave near the Islands
Then we see convection N of Hispaniola.
Reason I am showing this...
..it's more likely 92L
follows this pattern.
Often in El Nino years waves battle negative conditions and the strong headwinds coming out of Carib creating shear and as they near the Islands they begin to fall apart. And the shear also in ways redirects them or parts of their convection to the North and they struggle. Sometimes........they struggle so much they lose their Mojo and start to fall apart ...........and then sometimes North of the Islands closer in to Bahamas or Florida they perk up and come back together sort of reborn, reformed and ready to go.
That is not a forecast, it's a reminder it has happened before and what has happened before tends to happen again when the conditions are similar. So keep it in mind this year.
Back to 92L and Mike's Artwork today.
While convection is a bit lacking.
What convection there is in all the right places.
And you can see it's "form" today.
Will the NHC blink???
Totally true on what he said and I've said it often, nothing like watching a system come together in real time. It's truly amazing to those of us who enjoy all parts of the process of tropical formation. Loving formation does not equate with making landfall and doing horrific damage. Most people who follow me and Mike and others online have been hit by a hurricane and once hit by a hurricane, you become a little paranoid and want as much info in advance that you can get. That probably applies to Mike and I as we have grown up with hurricanes as Florida kids and knowledge is power and it gives you a head's up to get your plan in place should a tropical system comes knocking at your door! You won't be standing there at the store looking at empty shelves with nothing left on them but canned oysters!
Something different from Windy.com
Let's look at "rain accumulation" modeling.
EURO above shows it getting into Carib.
GFS slower, less and getting in there a bit
(note it's top heavy tho)
Icon doesn't buy it.
Islands been deprived of rain this summer.
Icon shows it stronger...
..and further to the N above the Islands.
Where does 92L go?
Still has a long ways to go
This is the precipitable water vapor loop.
Moisture...rain...
So still wondering does 92L
(maybe Dolly) be the one
to go through the Islands
in 2026 El Nino
or will they continue to be deprived
of needed rain?
Will see sooner rather than later.
So stay tuned.
As for the new PTC headed towards Hawaii.
If it forms it'll be Lala
Lala Does Hawaii!!
(Pacific has such great names...)
Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C (formerly CP93),
First Cone below.
Hawaii currently.....in crosshairs.
In the Cone!
35 MPH now...
...forecast to be a Hurricane.
NHC busy today
Most my readers do not come from there.
And most here worried on the Atlantic Basin.
But in El Nino Years chances go UP for Hawaii
for impacts and landfall.
1992 they got Iniki
Direct landfall on KauaŹ»i
Cat 4 - I believe.
Had friends there filming so yeah heard about it..
First Miami got hit with Andrew...
..then Hawaii with Iniki
In real time I had no cable...
...no TV til after Iniki had made landfall.
Knew it made landfall but we were busy in Miami
Post Hurricane Andrew.
In my mind the landfalls are always linked together.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
