Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, April 11, 2021

Violent Volcanic Eruption in the Tropics... Ash Can Be Deadly... How Long Will This Last? La Soufrière (What's In a Name??)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_eruption_of_LaSoufri%C3%A8re

What is in a name? The name La Soufriere literally means sulfur and that is the smell that pervades the atmosphere as caustic ash rains down onto the tropical island famous for having a volcano on it. Hurricanes come and go but a volcano seems to be forever. Sometimes they are quiet most of the time and tourists go near to take photos of both the volcano in the background and themselves standing in the shadow of a volcano that violently erupted in 1979 the same year as Hurricane David left the Caribbean in search of a Florida vacation.


You can tell which way the wind is blowing.
Not rain.... it's from the volcano.
East bound.... 

ASH it's not Pine Pollen.
We complain but it goes away fast.
Ash can be deadly.


Ash NOT Pine Pollen.

This is a picture Rob sent me from www.crownweather.com
He's been updating his patrons with information.
I found this comment worthy of sharing...
...read it and think about it:

"The ash from a volcanic eruption is MUCH different and is much, much more hazardous than what you would find with the ash from your wood stove or from a wildfire.  The composition of volcanic ash is extremely rough and caustic and if you breathe in the ash from a volcanic eruption, it can mix with the moisture in your lungs leading to you to potentially “drown” in volcanic ash"

Think about it.

Open House on Natural Disaster Season.

Wondering what the Hurricane Season will bring?

In Miami and most of Florida today wicked weather.

Cold front clashing with moist tropical air.

Significant Weather warnings are rare.



Another view....from earlier today


Sure feels like Mother Nature is on the warpath!
Geologically and meteorologically!



Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram







Friday, April 09, 2021

Waves Matter! Early African Wave Train... Too Soon...Too Low. But So It Begins! EPAC Starts May 15th. Will We Get Named Storms Before June? Stay Tuned.

 


So let's talk tropics.
There used to be a room online for that...
Looked like Stalk Tropics to me.
Palm Beach Post... great paper.
But I digress... 

(punctuation is so important...)

Yes we are watching the satellites.
Watching patterns.
Those too early, low latitude waves.
When they reach South America....
..and splash up on the mouth of the Amazon

We know the Wave Train is beginning.
Takes weeks, months before they are Prime Time.
But it's a start...
..a sign that that time is getting closer.

I have a best friend who always reminds me she doesn't believe in coincidences. I'll add that one coincidence gets your attention, two coincidences really wake you up... trust me. One wave wandering westbound is interesting, two westbound waves is the start of a wave train that begins early, too low to do anything more than crash onto the coast of South America. Ironically, sometimes those early April waves are kick ass waves that look better than late May or early June but again they are too soon but it's the beginning of the pattern switch. Dabuh knows that and he knows I know that so we be watching frequently!


May 15th begins Epac Season.
Note the congregating of convection there now.
To the east is a wave near South America.
An Atlantic Wave.
Too soon yet there it is!


Here's a close up of our wave.
Looks like a scared rabbit.
As in "oh my gosh what have I done??"
"I'm running out of ocean!!!"
"I wasn't made for the Amazon River........"
"Oh nooooooooo......"

Poor little early too soon wave....
...we will remember you well!


That 's Africa.
All purple, dry and wait what's that?
RED means convection.
(There's another wave candidate behind it too!)
Next wave leaves the coast.
Too early, too low,  too soon.

But it begins...
One wave at a time.
Two by two...

Stay tuned!
Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather.
Instagram whatever.

Ps Lyrics are always good...
...because words matter!














Thursday, April 08, 2021

17 Named Storms. 8 Hurricanes. 4 Major ?? 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast Released from CSU as of April 8th. Link to the Report Below Please Read it. Hurricane Season Edges Closer... 54 Days til June 1st... 37 Days Til May 15th... Start of the TWO from the NHC. Pine Pollen Season in the Carolinas. Severe Weather in the South Again


Just released!

Just a snippet of the many important details.
PLEASE READ IT ...take it all in carefully.

East coast has higher than normal risk.

Gulf Coast, as always... always in it!

Please use the link below wisely!

Words matter but graphs are forever!


17 named storms.
8 Hurricanes.
4 Major Hurricanes.

Again this will be updated in real time.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-04.pdf Please read it, it's detailed and yes the devil is often hidden in the details. Beautiful tribute to the work of William Gray who began this work that Phil is continuing ... amazing meteorologists who work hard to educate and inform us on the multitude of intricacies of Hurricane Forecasting


This is today's water vapor image.
Check that storm out winding up.... 
The tail down in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Spring Storms in Hurricane Country.

It just doesn't end for some places when Spring, severe weather hits areas still recovering from the 2020 Hurricane Season as we edge closer to the 2021 Hurricane Season.  Old storm out in the Atlantic, next storm not punching the Gulf of Mexico states with the possibility of real stormy weather. 


Where do you focus your mind and energy?

Today at 10 AM Phil released his 1st Hurricane Season update, forecast or as I like to think of it "discussion on the elements of this current, coming hurricane season" as his reports are packed with details and forecasts for how it might come together. Quantitative is a good word for it, it's got so much information you can read it over and over and find new stuff. But still it's early April a long time away from the actual hurricane season, but this is like the first shot across the bow! There are still so many intangibles between April 8th and the actual Hurricane Season but things begin to come together, you know they are finally almost jellin like a big jello mold that takes a long time to get hard, jiggly and tastes just right. If you turn that thing over too soon it slides off the plate onto the table everywhere all runny and disappointing. To me this begins "the season" as the pollen has covered my porch, baseball is in swing and my tornado chaser friends are all hot and bothered and out and about in search of funnel clouds dipping down out of the sky partially hidden by the trees and hills of the deep south. Last year was a busy chase season in the same places where many are out today in search of severe weather.  So will this year be similar to last year? 

Yes, I think so but some different focus on tracks, often years that are similar create similar patterns yet one year the tracks stay off shore and the next year they edge dangerously closer and trace the coastline. Some years the emphasis shifts from Louisiana/Mississippi and Alabama to Texas/Louisiana or closer to the Florida Big Bend and Florida is in it again. We can shoot the tropical breeze on April 8th but it doesn't really start to blow until you get closer to May.




Looking further South on the water vapor image.
We see clusters of convection down near Panama.
Rolling off of South America into the EPAC.
EPAC season begins May 15th!
Further East there are low, west bound waves.
Yes, there's a wave train even in April.
But it's too low... typical for now.
Eventually it climbs to the North..
..and then we worry and watch more.

Look at that image up above.
Or watch the Gulf of Mexico and old fronts.
Or pay attention to areas off the East Coast.

Where's your focus when you look at the satellites? Do you still watch weaker winter storms traveling from West to East across the USA or do you begin to peak down into the Caribbean and the wide open Atlantic and maybe even watch what's coming off of Africa? Many of us are watching all year, yet rarely do I discuss what I'm thinking. Too soon... too early.... eventually I'll blog and babble every day on anything that seems of a tropical nature. Hoping to be in Florida in June, if that happens I'll be there then (or sooner) but for now I'm not watching mangoes on the trees begin to grow I'm watching yellow pine pollen paint my porch yellow and it's covering my leftover shamrocks from March.


Yeah I know...they need to be washed off ...
...maybe I'll take em in the shower with me.
Supposed to rain on Friday...
Time will tell.
Pine Pollen has it's day and then it's gone.
Leaving little "squiggly things" on the ground.
Personally I love Pine Puddles... 
... like yellow paint swirled around poetically!

I like lots of things in the off season.
I love to watch Earthquakes and Volcanoes.
Mister Thor's videos cover them nicely.
When I lived in LA I studied earthquakes.
LA was shaking the other day actually....

What's shaking in your world today?
Stay focused on the present...
...but know the 2021 Hurricane Season is coming.

54 days til June 1st!
37 days til NHC puts out their TWO
Tropical Weather Outlooks begin then.
In tune with EPAC Season on May 15th.

Stay tuned!

Sweet Tropical Dreams!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Twitter mostly weather....
.... Instagram whatever ;)



Thursday, March 25, 2021

NO MORE GREEK NAMES! New Alternative List.... In Case of a Busy Season. More Changes at NHC Y Not Monica Tina or Angela??

Link to this story below.
This did raise a few eyebrows.
Why? Really??

I have a brother who lives in Greece and I kind of liked using his alphabet for Xtra Hurricane names that manage to sneak in under the wire in a busy season. It was kind of fun I thought. Also Greek names often are names of muses and I'm very Pro Muse because well muses have rights too! But, alas the Greek Alphabet was pulled faster than bad guacamole at Chipotle's menu! And somewhere along the line the powers that be chose a new list of names that are shown down below. I'm not saying they are not nice names but why Jacobus and Sophie made the list is beyond my pay grade. I've always been partial to Kappa and Mu myself, maybe put Mu back into the Pacific....  Sophie is a cute name, does that mean it will not not be on the regular list should a storm like Sandy be retired again or will they change this list next year? So many questions. Apparently "the committee" made the changes, sad because I'd love to have seen Sophie on the regular A Team List of names rather than the B Team List personally.

A look back at last year's names.
The very hyper season of 2020!


Perhaps we should all submit names to "the Committee"
What's your favorite name?
What names would YOU like to see added.
I'd vote for Sophie and Oscar 
Max and Lola!
Perhaps Bobbi or maybe Babette!

Anyway what is in a name anyway?
Something to think on...
We thought Andrew was "weak" in 1992.
We were wrong.
Names have significance after the season is over.
Sandy was cute or reminded people of Aunt Sandy.
Sandy became a name that conjures up disaster...
...a powerful, long tracking hurricane!
A name to remember.....

Stay tuned.
Let's see what other changes will pop up this year.


Did DaBuh really say 90s??
Mid or upper 90s??? Oh my..........
How is that even possible in March??
Start preparing now for 2021 Hurricane Season!!!

The truth is the most important thing for you to know and to do is how to properly prepare early for the 2021 Hurricane Season as the waters are warming up and when the heat is on ... storms form early even before May 15th because things work according to Mother Nature's schedule often not ours. People who really know what the main things to worry on and that's actual development not names. It's like when the Miami Dolphins went out to change the uniforms back to a retro look similar to the Undefeated Season, alas it's about the team and their strength or weaknesses not the uniforms as they learned. What is in a name?

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


Alternative song for the day... 
... alternative names demand alternative songs!




















 
Link to the new names below, kind of surprised they didn't just put them in the link above. What's up with that? 



 




Tuesday, March 23, 2021

SE Coastal Low & May 15th NHC Begins Issuing TWO - Tropical Weather Outlook. Will the Official Hurricane Season Soon Start on May 15th?

 


So let's talk tropics or more so....
...let's talk about the NHC.

They have basically decided to start issuing the product most of us call the TWO meaning the Tropical Weather Outlook as of May 15th, two weeks before the official June 1st start of the Hurricane Season. Often, over time, there is something to talk about during that period and when the NHC feels it needs to it has to put out a Special Tropical Weather Outlook as we have seen often the last few years. They also want to move up the official start of the season to May 15th but that's an ongoing discussion point in weather circles.  Some, like Rob from www.crownweather.com asked in his recent email to his subscribers if we really need a specific date at all for the start of the season. I mean in reality if there is something there they will go live and give information. A date is a line in the sand, yet time really isn't always linear but more chaotic as we have had tropical systems in almost every month of the year including December way past the end of the Hurricane Season.

On another level, the use of the "Official Start of the Hurricane Season" allows networks and agencies to properly publicize the Hurricane Season and amp up discussion on Hurricane Prep. On another level nothing amps up concern than seeing a Hurricane forming in late May somewhere or even a Tropical Storm pop up off the coast of Florida from the tail end of an old cold front. It happens and often until someone is in the cross hairs or until there is a Hurricane Warning many refuse to take it seriously, and then again others take it seriously every month of the year. When they go to Publix and see Tuna on a "buy one get one free" sale they throw one tuna into a bucket labeled "Hurricane Supplies" and the truth is you cannot really change human nature. You can try but people tend do stick to their own inner clock that can only be changed by possibly going through a big hurricane such as Andrew or Katrina in which case you either move to Colorado and get out of Dodge or you begin preparing on January 1st for the hurricane season.   

Works for me because there is always something watch in May. If this was May or even late April they may have officially designated the area off the SE coast currently as something there to watch but not expected to develop in a tropical way etc, etc, etc.


That's a real time look this morning.
Quite the coastal low.

Speaking of that are off the SE coast, "wow, doesn't it look well developed on Earthnull!"  People like Dabuh and I are always watching and it's fun to joke around and banter in March, because there is no pressure of a Category 4 headed towards a populated town about to turn their lives around. Patterns develop, set up...rearrange and then as we get closer to hurricane season the pattern shows it's face in a more visceral, threatening way. Today it's high surf in some places, strong wind at the beaches and just another day in Raleigh watching as the pollen build up on the pine trees and wondering when they will pop open with maize colored pollen coating out cars like butter on popcorn. There's a "season" but we all know some years it pops in March when it's been unseasonably warm or late in April if it's been cooler.... the same with the tropics, they don't pay attention to dates on a calendar.


Be it June or January.
March or May..
DaBuh and I will be ourselves.
He's a blessing ....


...and even tho Mike...
is known as "Spaghetti Models" all tropical...
He's a man for all seasons...
He's a true blessing too!

We watch it all............
....all the time, all year!

And the NHC will start their TWO on May 15th.
Stay tuned for more info on the 2021 Hurricane Season.
Tomorrow we will talk on names.
Why the NHC dropped the Greek Alphabet... 
???

Check back tomorrow :)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... prayers for all those in Boulder.
Prayers for all of us... 
... pray we hear no more bad news.

You can move to anywhere for a good life...
...but bad things happen besides hurricanes and earthquakes.
Sad but true.











 

Monday, March 22, 2021

What's Going on Off the Southeast Coast? Tropical? Subtropical? Or Just Good Ole Weather??



There's been a lot of talk lately.
And I have stayed out of the Fray... 

What is it and could it be tropical or subtropical? It's weather and it's kicking up the wind gradient as seen below on Earthnull creating a stormy set up along the beaches of the Southeast coast. First it parked off of Jax and then another area closer to the Caolinas popped up and it's handing energy back and forth like a quarterback passing to a receiver who then throws it back to the quarterback who then tries to throws it downfield ..........usually, but not always, those plays don't play out well though they do get a lot of airtime play on the nightly sports round up as comic relief. Sometimes it produces a touchdown, but more often not and that's where we are today with this system. 

But what is interesting is the pattern that produces it and the models that keep trying to produce a real semi tropical/subtropical low in that area and add that in with fronts still moving around in that area now doing the "how far down into Florida will we really get" dance it's possible that early season action in the tropics will begin in this area as we have seen often in the past. The area off of the Southeast coast is prime time for early season spins up that do not go far but do create attention and waves at the beach.



Early Season 2012 produced such storms.


When people say 2012 with regard to the tropics people think "Hurricane Sandy" but Sandy was just an exclamation point to what was a busy season along the East Coast that ended with Sandy going Boo for Halloween! 

Just something to think on while listening to the debate online or staring at the loops wondering what is going on with that area known as a coastal low, it hugs the coast kicks up the surf and waits for a ride up the coast or out to sea. Look how tight that gradient is below along the coastline.
 


So what is that?
A funny heart?
A mask?
Lots of wind along the beaches.


Change the parameters a bit.
Looks like a Low.
And it is ......
Not tropical, not subtropical.
It's weather.


There we are above this morning.
Multiple cells ... Low Pressure.
WIND


On Wednesday it's doing the Outer Banks.

Don't get caught up in the hype.
Weather people love to watch the loops...
Run the models.

Change is in the air. Spring Solstice has come and gone. Storms love to form around solstices and they have been doing it since man first figured out there was a connection between the Moon cycles and the Seasons. Surfers watch waves begin to show up after days of a flat ocean and they stare and watch waiting and knowing things are about to change. Birds show up in the neighborhood on their way somewhere from wherever they have been for the winter. Leaves appear on the maple tree and flowers begin to spring up everywhere reminding you it's Spring! 

The Hurricane Season is 71 days away officially and most likely we will see pre-season action so take this as a sign that everything is working the way it should according to Mother Nature's time and if this keeps continuing the area will eventually, probably produce an early system that actually gets a name or a designation.  Until then my crew of tropical friends will be running models, watching loops and wondering on early waves coming off of Africa while watching close in to see if something might form somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Cape Hatteras... it's a breeding ground for early action.

As for be busy with the coming holiday of Passover that takes more preparation than the whole 8 day holiday but which is fun once it gets rolling. May you be well, happy and healthy! Keep your sense of humor, remember to breathe in and breathe out and if you get a chance to look up at the stars or catch a sunset ... say a prayer of thanks and enjoy the beauty of the moment.

Soon nuff we will be tracking full time again,

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


















Thursday, March 18, 2021

Thursday - Waiting in the Carolinas to See What Will Happen. Tornadoes Yesterday. Foggy in Raleigh. Storms in North Florida. The System is on the Move...



A lot of energy in that system still.
Might be a bit sneaky.
Lots of maps and discussion today.
 


This is where we are today ...watching weather in real time vs models that make predictions that do or do not come true. Sometimes they come true in part but not really what they predicted a few days back. Weather is NOW .. happening.....this minute ... evolving almost faster than I can type. I woke up to fog this morning and when it didn't go away by 10 AM it was obvious we had the Cold Air Damming situation setting up... the warm front lingers to the South and the Low to the West is tight and spinning fast and at some point somewhere it will be warm enough for serious trouble in the Carolinas. Currently I'm worried on the area we call "Down East" which means South of the Sandhills and East towards the Beaches or as we say in these parts "East of 95" where BBQ sauce takes on a whole new meaning. I'm also worried on the Triad and definitely don't think Raleigh is off the hook, it's a sneaky system that can flare up fast anywhere.  The recent strong Tornado down by the coast where hurricanes usually make landfall is bugging me and that area could once again deal with that sort of threat today. Hope they get lucky this time.

In the South we divide ourselves up by the way we cook our food and what exactly it is that we cook the most!



As for the weather here the sun is trying to come out.


Closer to the coast has the largest concern now.
But as always that line cuts through Raleigh.
(insert hand over face graphic...)
According to the NAM below things will ramp up...
... we call that the Piedmont Crescent.


Charlotte to Raleigh.
Really it's a thing and every city in between!


And usually but not always the Triad steals the weather.
Greensboro, Winston Salem.
Snow in the winter, thunderstorms in the summer.


Another great map shows how large this system is..
They keep talking on the South but look at it!
Takes up the whole East half of the USA!
It's an early pre-Earthnull... wind map.


2 more images.
Above is before 
Below is current.
Check out that dry line........


And note the fuel for this system was tropical...
... coming up from the Yucatan and BOC.


Watch patterns and trends that linger...
..as we move closer to the Hurricane Season.

Note Florida has had stronger weather...
..that the Carolinas today SO FAR as of 2 PM.


This is the Tweet of the Day.
Explains the dangers of letting your guard down here.
Oh look another name "Carolina Alley"
But there's a shadow further inland.
And the way this line is setting up...
...this could play out.


Eye like feature to the West in the Low.
Warmer it gets the more troublesome.

Really it's a hard part of the country to forecast.
Someone will get something but where?
Or will that tail drag across Raleigh?

Stay tuned.
Stay prepared.
Pay attention.
Stay safe!

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

An off season video I made.


You can play with it.

Any serious weather I'll update in real time.
























The biggest concern currently is that as the threat for an extremely severe outbreak of tornadoes begins to fade away ... the concern is that people think they are out of the woods because we went down from a 4 to a 3 on the NWS graphic page. The cool foggy air lulls you into thinking it's impossible anything wild is going to go down in a few hours and that's not good. Actually as shown on Twitter all morning receding fog and CAD giving way to an approaching warm front can infact 






This blog is real time Thursday thoughts.