A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, August 17, 2022
One Way or Another Something Should Form Soon... BOC or GOM? Stay Tuned. And, Yes... Models Like Waves But Which One Wins the Name?
My thoughts today. Well, I have a lot of thoughts but going to hold them in, but officially these are my thoughts. This are in the Caribbean is worth watching for one of two reasons. Either it gets into the Bay of Campeche which is waiting for it as there is a spin there without convection and it would just love this particular piece of convection. Or it forms further to the North and East and could be more of a problem for the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the money is on the BOC system, as it's typical for the Hurricane Seaosn to get going after an early BOC system forms and dies quickly after slamming the area with heavy rain and flooding. But, this is late August and this is the time of year we would more likely see a Gulf of Mexico system try and form.
Meteorology is a science filled with mathematics and we can only explain things in the rear view mirror when the facts are all apparent. It's either an odd slow season or a season about to bust wide open.
Time will tell.
This is whats left of an old Invest that made it this far so whatever happens I doubt it's falling apart.
One way or the other, something is going to happen.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps.. more to come but for now it needs to be watched.
Oh and models, that have been wrong frequently, are spinning up African Waves though many seem to want to spin only one wins in the end.
UPDATED 8PM. NEW YELLOW AREA 20% ... SW Cari - A New Day, Another Story in the Tropics. Misplaced Energy... Big Problem 2022. Where's Invest 99L ... Waiting.
Been much discussion on this happening.
Crosses the Yucatan area... into BOC.
This moisture has been sitting down there...
...hovering over Panama.
Curious the models take it North.
Well NW...
...lets see what they say tomorrow.
Note models are sniffing Wave Juice next week.
More Tuesday Morning.
If you haven't read the blog keep reading.
Nothing much has changed except for 20% yellow!
* * *
What was originally Invest 97L that kept moving slowly across a turbulent ocean with an atmosphere that was constantly rearranging has zero chances of developing according to the NHC. But, it's marked by a yellow X with misplaced convection to the East of it as it has been fighting shear for what seems like years now.
Everything is sheared off to the NE...
... watched it this long will keep watching.
Not much else to watch.
Models do try and grasp onto possibilities.
Invest 98L still raining some in Texas. Yet another FRONT moving fast across the US diving down a bit near the Carolinas, pushing everything else off shore including an area trying to form off the Carolinas. It's one continuous piece of energy visible on a multitude of loops. A new wave about to come off Africa shows potential with some models and other models race off after another close in Invest that could form along the East Coast.
Meteorologists pull their hair out and debate if this is 1997, 1999 or 2013. It's 2022 and it will end up being whatever will be down the road and many will debate the strangeness of this year in the tropics. This is about as empty as the world gets tropically speaking, and a vacuum rarely stays a vacuum as generally something fills the vacuum.
Lastly there is this graphic.
Shows something in the Atlantic possible....
...later this week.
Again time will tell.......
I have been the keeper of secrets in my family for a long time. There's always some secret, some speculation and some destination about to be traveled to by someone. I've lived in lots of places and on both coasts of the US, I kind of prefer the West Coast vibes but ended up back on the East Coast.
The reason hurricanes happen is they are part of the process of moving, evacuating and rearranging the atmopshere across the planet from the equator to the poles. They serve a purpose and that purpose is best served when a huge "Fish" storm stays out at sea but helps push along Autumn and keeps the seasons balanced. Storms are beautiful to film, to chase and amazing to study yet they actually serve a purpose. You wouldn't want to live on a hot, parched, desert like planet with no moisture and no air moving anywhere would you? So while many cheer when there's "nothing out there" it's actually not a good sign as down the road there will be something and Planet Earth actually needs hurricanes.
To everything there is a time and purpose ...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps I had a friend who liked this song and the concept. Another friend liked the verse in the bible. Another friend just liked to dance to it. A woman dies, a baby girl is born (with a pretty name I may add) and somewhere some child of mine is always traveling and dancing.
Which friend are you?
And, where is Invest 99L because 99L Invests often tend to be pains to forecast.
Updated 10% Yellow ATLANTIC Area of Persistent Convection.........No Name Storm a Weather Maker for Texas - Down the Road.... Will the Atlantic Basin Wake Up or Is it a Snooze Fest Til September?
New 10% Yellow Area.
For those of you on Twitter, you will know I've been obsessing on this area of extremel persistent convection. I made a video, I stared at it last night, this morning and the NHC has recently put up a yellow circle for an opening bid of 10% yellow. The text with the 8pm update is below.
Mimic shows it too!
Center stage there....
....definitely worth watching.
I'll also point out the orange circle off Carolinas.
But the center stage circle is very noticeable.
As I showed earlier today....
...there's a "bend" in the atmopshere.
Wind flow... Wavy like.
Solid ball of convection too!
We will see what we see...
..but at this point ignoring new African Waves
Watching this feature as it's stubborn!
Rest of blog is from this morning.
If you haven't read it, please do!
No name Texas Storm.
Will deliver rain....
...some flooding possible.
Nasty Weather.
Not great beach weather....
It's important not to ignore no name storms such as these as they can deliver quite a punch that many weak tropical depressions or named tropical storms do not. Especially in Texas in areas where they need the rain, but not too much rain at one time.
Models from Mike are shown above.
I love the juxtaposition on his site.
Rain moves inland.
I'll come back to this later...
... looks like a football game.
Red team at the line.
Blue team also lined up.
Red team has a wide receiver up near NE
Hasn't 2022 been the craziest summer?
Down the road there could be something off the E Coast.
Why this bugs me is the hot water there.
Not for lack of tropical waves traveling....
...Westbound into the Pacific.
Nothing wants to spin yet!
There's been talk the African waves are weak.
Not very wet.
Yet it's August not September.
We can re-evaluate this on August 26th....
...til then in theory things will develop down the road.
I know there's always 1999
Didn't wake up til Mid August.
Oh...it's Mid August 2022.
Hmnnn....
Mike has a nice Twitter Feed on his site.
Lots of good info.
Note the discussion on the early Noreaster!
He also has a nice radar view of that area there.
Time will tell.
Again I love the way Mike juxtaposes his graphic information on his site Spaghetti Models. There are pages of information there but he has the most important information on the front. Purple splotch off the East Coast always lines up with an area I have been watching in my own backyard so to speak. A few models have whispered a lot of inneundo that a storm off the East Coast forms and slides close to the coast. I'm not going to speculate on those models or how strong the winds might be, but just know those models are blowing in the wind on the Internet. As always we have waves coming off of Africa, yet nothing wants to spin and when I say nothing wants to spin I mean ANYWHERE not just off of Africa. The Caribbean seems shut down for now, the MDR is ominously quiet and close in we have lots of weather, no named storms and oh yes as I have said for months not "fronts" that actually cooled off Raleigh this morning beautifully.
What month is this?
Listen I'll take it!
I'm just curious as to what comes next....
Another view of our no name storm.
Lots of curvature yet no real convection.
Yet, as they hit land they explode.
They always do.
Something about these types of storms.
They look meh over water but not land.
They tighten up.
GOM systems mostly...
Texas or Alabama they do that inland.
Let's start over Monday Morning. Remember, just because some storm doesn't have a name doesn't mean it doesn't cause a whole lot of pain. Enjoy the Sunday, I can't promise you Labor Day Weekend will be hurricane free, but at this rate nothing would surprise me!
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather, Instagram whatever the mood hits me!
Updated! 8 PM 98L in the GOM ---Low Possibilities Yellow in GOM - Fast Mover IF it Forms... Cold Fronts Change Everything, Real Cold Fronts vs Trofs
Still low chances from NHC so prob no name...
...but who knows.
98L for now.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_mid Excellent link to the Water Vapor Loop of the GOM. It could make "landfall" or it might linger around and rain who knows. I've even wondered if it hangs there too long if it can circle around, strange things have happened in the Gulf of Mexico when it's Mid August and cold fronts are strong and in play for a few days. So keep your alarms on if you live in the area and hopefully someone who wants rain in Texas gets some rain!
I'll be on Saturday night late and til then follow my friends and most everything you need to know is from www.spaghettimodels.com
* * *
From 8 PM
Models running on 98L ....
...as I said earlier Westbound into Texas.
Though Gulf Coast beaches will get rain.
Will it attain the name Danielle?
Stay tuned.
Depends how fast it pulls together...
...if it pulls together!!
From Zoom Earth..
They do a great job with Invests.
Cords, data, wind speed!
Watch it in real time.
Pay attn to local weather news.
Should it develop ...
Keep reading from earlier today.
Yesterday's purple splotch I blogged on is Yellow!
NHC gives it a generous 10%
Waiting to see what it might do.
As I said last night.
2 areas to watch in tropics.
Never forget the GOM when fronts are in play.
And the water is hot.
And with a huge High in charge.
If something forms it moves West...
..slides along the coastal GOM towns.
Really watching the GOM has been fun this week, it's been like watching a Lava Lamp that meets an Etch a Sketch, seriously. But with a High near by, a huge cold front pushing down towards Georgia there's a lot going on a SPIN is easy to SPIN up QUICKLY before disapeering. Could Danielle form from that? Maybe, possible.... we will see. Link the image above in motion is below!
Different satellites show us different things.
We put them all together ....
...and we have a new, fresh yellow circle.
Basically stay tune.
We will watch the area....
...watch the next model run.
Watch in real time.
Kind of old school.
Typical I think for this old school Hurricane Season.
NAM above...
HRRR below....
Short term models we watch at times like this.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... not implying it's going to Galveston.
It's going in that general direction...
..and it's a great classic song.
Check out the short blog I wrote last night......
...about just this area before purple turned to yellow!
GOM and Wave Behind 97L Now Dead in the Water (Supposedly) and Slim PIckens But Maybe...
GOM has some potential for close in development.
Nothing expected. No yellow circle.
But the sliver I showed the other day has grown in girth.
Big purple blob there now.
Hard to totally ignore a strong cold front cruising down to Florida and then collapsing and leaving it's moisture in the hot water of the Gulf of Mexico. I got nothing better to do tropically speaking so I'm going to watch it out of curiosity.
Further out in the Atlantic.
There's an Enigma.
Seemed strange were were chasing 97L
Rather than the wave behind it.
You know the one with convection...
The lead wave 97L dispersed some dusty SAL
I always wondered why we were ignoring the 2nd wave.
97L Hanging in ...Having Problems. GOM & Carolina Close In Possibilities? Quiet Season Coming Alive or BUSY Season Starting Late? 1992 or 2013? 2022... Only Time Will Tell. Hurricane History
Lazy 97L at 30% still.....
...but could soemthing Close In develop?
Homegrown in GOM or off Carolinas?
Front pushes thru and then collapses...
Being honest here. In order for a tropical cyclone to develop it needs both wind with a twist and convection trying to wrap around the twisting possible center. IF a center forms, the weather wraps, the clouds build up high in the atmosphere and air evacuates, it literally begins to BREATHE, inhale and EXHALE and grow in girth and it attains the name HURRICANE sometimes after looking like a wanting or promising Tropical Storm that took it's own time developing! Or after a promising wave that fizzled the next one develops, or while staring at Africa you fail to notice something sneaky forming close in.
Kind of like that promising kid with intelligence and the ability to get As, who wins awards in school and looks like the perfect kid who will one day become President of some large corporation. You think "wow that kid is going far" and then he ends up in jail for having one of the largest drug operations at college. I'm sure Jeffrey Epstein's parents knew he'd go places and be well known some day. Then there's that quiet little kid who sits in class looking kind of "meh" and uninterested in life, kind of Plain Jane and somewhat boring; you know the last person you'd think would attain fame. And, so it was with Barbra Streisand who a woman I know taught when she was a little girl in Brooklyn dealing with her parents divorce who didn't seem all that happy or impressive. One day she goes off and follows her dream and becomes "BARBRA!" winning OSCARS and the heart of everyone everofywhere!
Watching the tropics is kind of like that.
Kick ass waves come off of Africa with great promise and fizzle away in the dry atmosphere ruled by SAL as they cough their way through the dusty air making it difficult to breathe, develop or even stay alive. Most die off and are nothing more than "Remember Invest 97" or "Remember Debby" that attained a name and then crashed and burned as it's tilted center collapsed, dead on arrival down near Hispaniola! Seriously, Debby broke more hearts than Marilyn Monroe!
Late bloomer Hurricane Harvey, long tracker.
Other times a good looking wave with promise fails to develop and then flares up again somewhere else but fails to develop but then comes back a bit and eventually spins up in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico and everyone is shocked it went the distance and the name got retired. Harvey was such a storm. Camille was such a storm that most maps show began in the Caribbean, but was infact a tropical wave that made it into the Caribbean but didn't find what it needed to develop until late in life and then exploded in the Gulf of Mexico. Andrew was such a wave also, no one beleived in and almost was downgraded until something changed and it exploded into Major Hurricane Status turning due West slamming into the South Florida area.
From Force 13 video way below.
From barely there to Cat 5 ...BOOM!
Seriously barely there storm until it went Major!
Sometimes things change. Especially in the tropics.
Wind shear lessens or strengthens, SAL thins out or is reinforced by a new burst of SAL that comes off Africa the same way waves roll off of Africa.
And often while we are obsessing on tropical waves that crash and burn something develops close in and suddenly a yellow circle pops up in the Gulf of Mexico or off the Carolinas or in the Bahamas and such a yellow circle "could" show up this week. I'm not promising as promises evaporate often like fizzling tropical waves but I am saying the potential is there. This morinng there's a sliver of purple on the map shown below in the Gulf of Mexico.
The blue, purple complex in the MDR is distracting.
Slivers of purple should be watched also.
Instagram from Mike this morning.
Ironically I was looking at the same map.
Candy stripe red in the MDR.
Candy Stripe Red is sexy!
Means... "check it out!!"
So which will it be or could it be both? Or will the next not there yet 98L come to life closer in the East Atlantic or will something close in spin up and surprise us? Well, nothing surprises @icyclone who is waiting in Mississippi for just one of those things to happen. He will travel amost anywhere, but it sure would make life more dramatic and colorful should one come straight to him as he is now is hanging out in Mississippi!
Lastly, the huge debate as to whether 2022 is a BUST as a hurricane season or just a late blooming hurricane season. This has been going on forever this year it seems as many online used the phrase no one in the hurricane chasing community wants to hear "2013 Hurricane Season" and I've been trying not to mention it here but I am today. Again Andrew showed up in late August 1992 after a dull, delayed hurricane season.
2013 was the worst hurricane season to watch, even worse than 1997 "El Nino of All El Ninos" as at least our expectations were dampened. 2013 kept showing promise, popping off tropical waves with promise that started and suputtered giving more than one tracker headaches and heartburn!
Could 2022 be that sort of year that delivers one knock out punch to some city where a monster makes landfall and the rest of the year is one huge yawn? Maybe. But I am not ready to say that as I know CLIMO gets the largest vote and even in the dullest seasons it suddenly jumps up and ACE shows up as intense storms linger a long time as they work their way through the tropics, be they FISH STORMS or Landfalling Monsters. August everything usually comes alive eventually. August 11th is a Full Moon, will that help flip the switch for those of you who believe in those things?
Stay tuned.... only time will tell.
2013 above... start, stop, start, stop.
1992 the "only takes one" example below!
Lots of nothing til late August.........then Andrew.
2017... Horrific Storms.
And Late blooming Harvey was one of them.
Dead looking on August 22nd....
...not so dead afterall as a Cat 4 ..4 days later!
Honestly I have been a fan of Force 13 forever and in these "quiet times" you might want to check out their vast library of videos of varous hurricane seasons. You learn a lot, and one thing especially is not to cancel a season until it's all over. They even go back far into history, 1954 hyperactive Hurricane Season with multiple landfalls on the East Coast lasted deep into December proving it's not over til it's over.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
