A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, June 03, 2026
AMANDA Forms in the EPAC! Atlantic Quiet Today. Long Range Models Go a Bit Crazy. Check Back Tomorrow. Record Breaking Cold Temperatures in the Carolinas This Morning!
Quick post this morning to say TD-ONE E is now Tropical Sorm Amanda! Look how nice she looks! As she moves out into the Pacific she is forecast to slowly fall apart and not be a threat to any land area, so the name Amanda will stick around it seems. NHC keeps her at Tropical Storm strength on the first advisory they put out.
As I have always said ...weather is locational. We look at the weather maps from our own perspective and not the other person's perspective. I follow Allan Huffman in the Raleigh area who is a good source for everyone in every area, but he is here in Raleigh. He is very cautious, careful and data driven vs some who hype every possibility online. I like that. But he did discuss long range tropics today on Patreon as it's a valid topic and everyone is asking. Despite the growing El Nino that often lowers our total numbers in the Atlantic, there are still storms, still hurricanes and it truly on takes one. Name another hurricane from 1992 and you will be hard pressed to find anyone that remembers any other hurricane but Andrew. Well, professional tropical meteorologists can but most cannot.
So never say never.
As for those models....
Euro shows a storm in the Gulf.
The Euro shows a landfall.
Tomorrow who knows what it shows...
...very long range models.
Wednesday June 17th.
How far out can you get?
Makes landfall ..
Aims at FL Panhandle.
But goes UP inland.
Caught my attention...
The GFS shows June 13th...
...my friends in Miami sent me this all day.
My brother sent me models.
Yes, I know...
"they are very far out, not reliable"
But they are all watching.
Ends up fairly close to the EURO
I don't trust models beyond the 5 day.
Sometimes the 7 day.
This far out it's all speculation.
There's always a model running.
Models find storms.
Models lose storms.
Ignore the hype...
..ignore it all.
Focus on 1 thing.
Hurricane Preparation.
I know it's expensive to prepare and there is nothing out there and it's El Nino! In the Carolinas where I live we just hold onto hurricane supplies and use them as Winter Storm Supplies! And, with El Nino who knows we might have a real winter?
Have a great day. It's a beautiful cool day today in Raleigh and I'm going out and enjoying it. The temperatures climb fast tomorrow into the high 80s. I do think 2026 Hurricane Season will have lots of invariables and surprises down the road. In general it will be an El Nino Hurricane Season, but there's an inconsistency this year and the weather has been bouncy. My kids in Denver barely had snow, then they had snow in the late Spring and sent me pics as if it had snowed in Raleigh. Normally, after the first few snowfalls in Denver they stop sending pictures. The record we broke in Raleigh today was from 1966, so let's look at the 1966 Hurricane Season just for fun.
Invest 90E in the EPAC at 90% for Development! Amanda 1st Name in EPAC. Questions Closer In on Development. There's a Window BUT It's Short Term For Now in Atlantic.
Short update this morning to say EPAC is about to get a named storm as they are at 90% in the 7 day and up to 80% in the 2 day. There is a yellow area being watched closer to the coast with lower intriguing chances of development. The Red 90% is a huge area with a beautiful swirl to it and may influence the weather around it some, while not having any big landfall achievements.
Water Vapor shows the flow
Currently Invest 90E is a big sprawling area.
Takes longer for sprawling areas to...
...pull it together and build a core.
SAL owns most of the Atlantic.
Distant Atlantic....
Gulf and close in to SE/FL coast not as much...
Using a simplistic long range probability graphic.
This really shows you where to look for development.
Not saying we are getting development.
But IF we were this is where to watch.
Gulf/East of FL
I put this on X just now.
There's lots of tantalizing scenarios a weather person can imagine, but that's Fantasy Tracking. And, yet hard truth is hard to find currently. Colorado and Montana barely got any snow until May. June 1st Denver gets a hail storm that looks like snow fell. June 2nd a cold front dives down into the Carolinas with a beautiful breath of fresh air, but it'll disappear as fast as it dived down.
There is a chance a Subtropical storm could develop fast off the East Coast near FL/Bahamas and exit Stage Right fast! There's a chance development in the EPAC close in that could cross over into BOC/Carib or the potential for development and fuel the ongoing semi-permanent wannabe Low in the Gulf. Nothing I'd place a bet on yet, but watching the set up and seeing where it goes. Still very early and too soon to scream June development. But maybe.... a sliver of a chance. Generally development in EPAC shears away any chances for the Gulf, but hey it's been an odd year and I expect odd to continue weather wise.
El Nino is building a mystery. Yes, we have an El Nino developing but what kind of El Nino? Where it sets up shop, digs in and explodes dictates what we see this Hurricane Season. Closer in more shear, further out less shear in the Caribbean. Lots riding on the actual location of the strength of the El Nino or does it all just fill in the way the way it did in 1997/98? That was a horrific El Nino for Pacific Rim populations. It may have been a season not to remember in the Atlantic, but for many in the rest of the world it was drought stricken, deadly and destructive. Note image below.
2026 Hurricane Season Begins! Talk on El Nino Is Valid But It's NOT a Free Pass or Get Out of Jail, FREE Card to Ignore Hurricane Season. Only Takes 1. Andrew, Camille, Florence & Michael Were El Nino Years. 2023 Gave Us Idalia. Time Will Tell! Stay Prepared!
A look at the NHC graphics...
An old front out in Atlantic
2 blobs of convection
Severe Weather issues across the heartland.
Low moving out to sea off the Carolinas*
Moisture laden Gulf with showers festering*
Ps NHC says nothing forming in the 7 day*
Looks like a grin to me.
Not sure if it's a sad grin....
...or a mischevous one..
Either way the Hurricane Season has begun!
* Some models toy with development off the SE Coast in the future being possible, possibly Subtropical if that happens and it's a real IF.
* Gulf has been looking threatening for days, perhaps weeks and yet nothing develops. That is not to say something could try and spin up close in to the coast so as always check back with regular NHC updates!
* NHC nothing for 7 days is never etched in stone, but if anything does look concerning they will put up a small yellow circle and then we watch. Even in 2026 surprises can happen. Speaking of 2026 the predictions are below from the NOAA
There has been much hype on El Nino for all the wrong reasons in my opinion as El Nino brings drought, destruction and death in a good part of the world. Yet as we approach the hurricane season everyone in the Atlantic part of the basin sees it as some sort of "GET OUT OF JAIL, FREE card from Monopoly. "Nothing to worry on" and the truth is that is absolutely wrong. I am NOT saying we will have a crazy, busy hurricane season with one tropical storm after another cruising into the Caribbean and developing fast into major landfalling hurricanes. I am saying that if you have 8 to 14 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes on the maps and 1 to 3 Major Hurricanes on the map and you live anywhere near the coast or inland from the coast you should be concerned. I'd say if you were in Colorado you probably do not have to worry.
Let's say we only have 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 Major Hurricane taking the lower side of the wide range that NOAA puts out. Note they don't like to go out onto a narrow branch as narrow branches tend to snap and the fall to the ground and if you are on one it is not a pleasant experience. But let's say we have 8 named storms and note this does not include X Potential Tropical Cyclones like the XPTC8 that dumped closed to 20 inches of rain on Carolina Beachses a few years ago but never had a name!
Obviously 8 named storms can cause flooding in low lying areas along the coast of Florida and the Carolinas. Let's say South Florida gets too much rain from a stalled out tropical depression or tropical storm or one moves in around Charleston a city prone to flooding. One forms close in to Houston and creates a muddy mess. A late season named storm hits the Big Bend of Florida with a huge messy structure while catching an early cold front and tornadoes drop like narrow branches with too much fruit hanging on them all across parts of Florida. None of these scenarios is good IF one of these 8 named storms slams into your home town or your cute bakery business gets flooded with 18 inches of rain.
Let's say there are only 3 hurricanes and it's one of those years, that due to a strong El Nino, tropical waves cannot get their MOJO going. But one hurricane rides up the East Coast and slides into the Cape Cod area. One hurricane rips through the Bahamas and slides up the coast into the Carolinas and then hooks out to sea. Or one late season hurricanes forms down South of the Yucatan and gets pulled up towards the West tip of Cuba moving North near Key West and then while over the hot waters of the Loop Current it slams into a Panhandle town or curves NW suddenly into Louisiana or Mississippi! Note one of these 3 hurricanes could be THAT Major Hurricane we all fear. Obviously Alabama always needs to pay attention even though we tend to not to mention it. Sorry Alabama.......
As for that 1 Major Hurricane....
What if it was a struggling tropical wave tangled up with an Upper Level Low that had been dogging it while at the same time being blown apart by El Nino shear every time it tried to get it's Mojo going. This storm takes one of two scenarios. The first scenario is it slides between Miami and Nassau, traces the Florida Coastline just offshore bringing stormy conditions and moderate damage to beach towns. And, then it stalls out over the Gulf Stream suddenly having a burst of Rapid Intensification it explodes while sliding by Pawley's Island it continues North at a slow forward speed and slams into Oak Island in North Carolina. It then crosses OBX. It then parallels the coastline making everyone nervous from NYC to Boston and ends up in Newfoundland. Such a hurricane could bring multiple impacts across a wide area as Donna and Hazel did back when and even the last Isaias on it's first trip around the Hurricane name list! Ps ISAIAS is BACK!! We all do so dread the I storm!
The rest of the storms are weak, wandering barely there named storms and wobbly weak hurricanes. No one remembers their names. 2023 is an analog for that sort of season as it was a rather busy El Nino year and yet for many the only name they remember is Idalia! Oops the dreaded I storm did it again!!
Was that a dead season? No I don't think so.
NOAA would be off by a lot as 2023 had 20 named storms.
Again we could also have a very quiet season such as 1997 with only 7 named storms.
I'll wager we are somewhere between 1997 and 2023. Only time will tell.
1997 Hurricane Season.
So far we have been twinning that season...
...yet we are far from Prime Time El Nino!
So stay tuned.
Idalia was a mean hurricane.
In an otherwise quiet year...
..with most named storms far out at sea.
Slow seasons with low numbers do not always mean a free pass it means you have to hope that one does not find a sweet spot in any given week where shear is weaker and there is a favorable enviroment in line with CLIMO that allows a named storm to be the one that blossoms into a storm that will be remembered for all eternity or at least the next 100 years like the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane that I will talk about much this hurricane season.
Camille formed here....
... because El Nino shear didn't allow it
to form in the Atlantic or the Carib.
Andrew formed early....
..strugged it's way across the Atlantic.
Typical of El Nino
Then close in it turned.
It exploded.
2 deadly landfalls.
No one ever forgets Andrew.
Hurricane Michael....
Didn't form in the MDR
It didn't form in the Central Caribbean
It formed near the Yucatan....
...in an El Nino Year.
Exploded over the Gulf
And it went all the way to Spain.
Almost to Spain.
That same year....
...Florence went from Africa to the Carolinas.
Taking a Northern Passage it avoided El Nino.
Kind of like some wartime route in an old movie.
One oddity with El Nino Years is...
...the bad ones find a way.
Florence took a Northern route
Kind of saying "what El Nino?"
Florence busted a drought in NC
We have a bad drought :(
Droughts during El Nino Years...
...often get busted by a Major Wet Hurricane.
And yes we could have a DEAD quiet season...
Dead in the Atlantic
Busy in the EPAc
or messy tropical storms causing flooding.
Anything goes.
Just because there's an El Nino ...
...does not mean the Atlantic Basin is Free Parking
Until we are deep into December.
El Nino reigns in December.
It's in the name...
Shows up around Christmas often..
..that is where the name came from..
No one is declared safe or a winner
Until December.
So stock up on hurricane supplies.
Your specific hurricane supplies.
Know your prioties.
Do you live alone?
Do you have pets?
Do you have children?
Are you elderly on medication?
The list goes on and on and on.
Know your dangers?
Are you in a low lying area?
Are you close to the coast?
Do you live in a tall Condo in Miami?
NHC does their job.
You have to do your job!
Stay aware and prepared.
Pay attention to the NHC.
They are the bottom line!
Lastly I just came up with those scenarios as I was typing though I have thought a lot about areas that need to be watched more carefully for possible development. Just showing typical tracks for hurricanes that do not become strong out in the Main Developement Region aka MDR not in the deep Caribbean such as Mitch or Matthew.
I will talk more this week on the areas I do think need to be watched, so stay tuned! And stay prepared!
14 Hours Til Hurricane Season Begins! EPAC 80% & 20% for Amanda & Boris. Atlantic Sees Nothing For Next 7 Days. Stay Aware, Stay Prepared!
First things first...
EPAC nothing in 2 days.
Flip it to the 7 day page
Yellow 20% Close In...
Red 80% Far Out!
Let's talk about Amanda & Boris
first two names in the EPAC
I'll be honest, lately the EPAC has better names than the Atlantic. I mean this is literally a writing prompt for me. Amanda and Boris met early one morning over a cortadito and found they had more in common than they originally thought when they were sneaking peaks at each other at the counter waiting for the waitress to notice they were there. Boris looked a bit wanting to hot to trot Amanda, and yet chemistry was in the air and soon they were smiling, flirting, laughing and there was the hope of something more to develop down the tropical road.
As for the Atlantic it's still waiting to see what the East Pacific wants to do as development close to shore in the EPAC can quiet down the fantasy Canes in the Gulf. Also it's waiting to see what the front really has once it gets deep into South Carolina and if it chugs off fast out to sea or lingers around ...hovering over warm waters.
I'll be honest, the season has not yet started and I'm ready to rant.
1. The NHC updated their page and now it's more complicated to use ( tho who really uses it I'm wondering) and rather than enabling it to immediately show you the 7 day when you hover over the 2 day you have to go through MORE hoops to get to the graphic forecast for the 7 day. To me this is 2 steps backward. What were they thinking? What were they thinking? In the face paced world of 2026 there are two types of people.
First person looks at the first picture goes "oh" and moves on to TicToc or Instagram.
Second person looks briefly, pulls up a new screen and asks their favorite AI: Is anything forming in the EPAC or Atlantic this week?
That's the response.
It then breaks it down into both basins.
Quick glance.
Got it!
No need to keep clicking on the page.
Because it's 2026
Zoom Earth does a great job.
I'm a huge fan
Okay it doesn't have the cartoon graphic screen.
No I'm not being mean.
Just telling it like it is...
You see everything on one page.
You click on the red...or hover.
Info on the right.
If you want more info.
I do "get" that there is something good about continuity. But as we move forward into the 2020s I think we get jettison the static, cartoon like graphic and make it easier for the average person to use the actual main source of info. If it gets too hard they just ignore it and go back to TicToc or Instagram and that could be good or bad depending on who they pay atten to. But know, it's easy to get all the info against a real screen of satellite imagery of Planet Earth in real time that'll show you all the info on https://zoom.earth/
Note on Zoom Earth you can see the bulk of the dust!
SAL
Saharan Air Layer
Dust in the wind from Africa!
Also goes without saying....
Mike's Weather Page
All on one screen!
2 day and the 7 day!
YAY!
As for models and down the road........
..models still flirting with possible development
EPAC shows development.
(they are open for business as of May 15th)
down the road a bit but logical!
Atlantic is quiet.
The GFS tries to entertain us!!
Tries.......
off of an old draped frontal boundary
BOC in 2 weeks sure...
....very CLIMO but much depends on
What is happening in the nearby EPAC
Development in EPAC disrupts BOC development.
Usually
Note as per the NHC the job they do balancing the 403,542 models currently out there is amazing and wonderful and they do an awesome job tracking and studying the tropics giving us early warning and that is everything. If you want real graphics go to another site that uses the NHC info but displays it ways that are easier to find, understand and remember when using any AI site it can be wrong but it's fast and gives you just the facts.
Speaking of FACTS if there is one thing I'd like to see from the 2026 Hurricane Season is a clear understanding of INLAND FLOODING in a Hurricane or Tropical Storm. Wind damage is important, obviously, in strong hurricanes. But flooding is the main cause of death in Tropical Storms and Category 1 and 2 Hurricanes. This is especially important in North Carolina where elevation helped create Flash flooding in Chantal where six people died. Also I'll add a mediocre coverage downplaying the strength of the storm locally and otherwise as it was "just a tropical storm" and I'll add it had a wild punch as it was crazy rain here locally. You know if it doesn't bleed it doesn't lead until it bleeds when no one was expecting. This happens with no name systems down by the coast that flood entire beach towns, but it didn't have a name it was just sort of tropical weather. We got to be better! Easily accessible informational and warnings need to be prioritized and people need to prioritize their priorities and not drive into flooded roads at night, stay off the street and plan for the worst and hope for the best.
EPAC 60% Orange from NHC - Could Amanda Form in the EPAC? As for ARTHUR in the Atlantic Open for Business in 3 Days on June 1st.... Feisty ULL in the BOC & Lots of Rain on the Way!
NHC 2 day map.
A dipping, front kind of weak.
I'll take it ...was close to 90 in NC yesterday. Plume of moisture from EPAC N into Gulf.
Watch the flow below....
Our "busy" IR sat shows lots of color..
all crashing into each other!
Concentrated consistent convection gets the name.
Otherwise it's lots of convective clutter.
Crashing into eachother.
Zooming in you can see...
Strong convection in the EPAC close in In the BOC we have a curvy dark C there.
It's an upper level low.
Always good to watch....fun but good.
Sometimes they can develop.
And more so..
they enhance development of convection nearby.
They are not BIG players.
But big players behind the scenes.
This shows a bit of red in BOC
And down below a big blob.
2 parts of one puzzle.
Ironically that is NOT the area that is being watched in the EPAC for development, that region is further out in a flattened zone of clusters of convection and small kinks in the wind flow. Note early development further out is consistent with a developing El Nino where water temps are warmer in this region. Also, it's moving to the West not threatening the EPAC's beautiful coastline.
Earthnull shows the wind flow.
Not much there. Changing the parameters...
...you smoke out other layers of the atmosphere.
To the North you have the diving air off East Coast.
Out West you have an Omega Block This creates wind shear ....
...and a too busy atmosphere. Zooming in you see our ULL in the BOC
Just explaning not expecting anything.
Out in the Pacific we have a 60% chance of formation.
Development possible in the next 7 days.
As for the Atlantic... nada...nothing for now.
But NHC did highlight the ULL on X.
Strong winds, stormy weather.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Should you see Post Memorial Day Sales...
Grab some Hurricane Supplies at discounts.
Stash them away....
Remember there's El Nino building to the West, there's SAL moving in from the East. Fronts are still dipping down from the North and then going flat. And, we have a feisty Upper Level Low in the Bay of Campeache a favorable area for development in June. And, there are impulses of stormy weather there currently that could be tickled some by the ULL in this configuration that is enhancing convection. Just stuff to watch. For now just stuff. Down the road in 3 days, maybe more than just "stuff" but an area to watch. For now there's a a lot of wind shear everywhere, but if that changes it may be something to pay attention to in a few days. Enjoy the weekend!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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