Tropical Storm Andrea Forms in Atlantic. What Else to Watch? Late June is Homegrown Season...Stay Tuned.

 

Tropical Storm Andrea in the Atlantic.

Full fledged tropical storm.

The name Andrea should remain on the list.

From Zoom Earth website.

Beautiful little A storm.

Earthnull and Zoom Earth respectively.

Where do we go from here?

Let's take a look at the basin.

I've always loved a black and white WV loop.

In the East we see a strong tropical wave.

Strong for June...strong swimmer.

Round ball of moisture in MDR.

Moisture is getting into the Carib 

Water temperatures in the Gulf are HOT.

And to the East of Florida .....

....is an interesting "setup"

There's moisture out there....

...caught in a strong flow.

It's actually "like" an Upper Level Low.

ULLs have a dirty side (rain/storms)

Blue WV Loop.

This will continue on it's journey.

Discussion from NWS Melbourne.

Stormy weather from this "feature"

Four days ago the NHC said there would be nothing for the next 7 days. I pointed out the many areas where something could pop up this time of year, even when when it's not on our short term radar. The next day we had a yellow area of interest pop up with very low, yellow chances and shortly after that they put up an Invest designating it Invest 90L. That's very rare. Very, very rare and this is what we mean by pop up systems when all seems quiet and nothing will get a name until July. It's actually very common for a short lived tropical or subtropical storm to pop up off the East Coast in June.  You can see below.

I'll just say this.

When you have a "Heat Dome" to the N of the Gulf

We sometimes see home grown development.

Low pressures form South of the High Pressure.

From a historical perspective...I'd watch it.

Never say never. 

Never be surprised.

Never stop chasing!

Moisture persists in the Gulf.

ULL headed towards FL...

..and where does it end up?

Home grown Season

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X 

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever...

Invest 90L 70% - Needs Tstorms Out in Atlantic May Become TD Later Today

 

Could become a TD

"short lived tropical depression"

1st name is Andrea... either way good to know

Sure looks like a TD to me.

Definitely closed.

"Needs Tstorms" NHC says.

Okay.....so let's watch.

Purple dot is the heart of the matter here.

Zoom Earth is awesome!

North of the SAL

Bit of a sweet spot but shear there.

I know far to the North.

This is 90L

It needs thunderstorms to be a TD

According to the NHC....

Needs thunderstorms to stay...

...not blow away.

Is it blow off or blow away?

I digress but not sure which to type...

Speaking of far to the North.

The heat today on the East Coast..

...is out of hand.

Feels like map on Zoom Earth...

...note position of Invest 90L 

Close Up.

Like this Summer is a Science Fiction Movie.

I'd like a plot twist.

Send the heat somewhere else.

Either way stay tuned.

May update later today 

IF

Invest 90L

Can get Tstorm activity going.

Staying.

Growing.

Be back later.....

Yellow Area in Atlantic - Possible Subtropical Storm. Low 10% Chance Today From NHC

 

Quick update on new yellow area in Atlantic.

This would be the Subtropical System I've mentioned to be on the look out for as they are common this time of year out in the Atlantic. Note models on the left that show it's possible track should it form. Currently it's a low 10% "we see it" chance and we will see what NHC does next. 

Yes, I see the model forecast storm track up into the GOM. There's always that model that shows a very long range scenario and we can discuss that on Monday should it still be an option.

For now have a good weekend and if you are in the hazard zone of "excessive heat" stay hydrated and inside or in the shade as much as possible. Won't last forever, but it's going to be a hot end to June.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

NHC Says Nothing For 7 Days. Erick is Gone. Clean Up Goes On. Questions on When Does 2025 in Atlantic Get Going... Remain.

You can see remnant rain from Erick

Tropical Waves Westbound.

Shear near the entrance to the Caribbean.

Dotted clouds are SAL

Note strong tropical wave holding it's own.

That's what they do...run below the SAL

Though SAL inhibits their growth.

And water temps not prime yet in MDR.

Another view of the wave.

Some waves ride with the dust...

...as if they are dancing with them.

And this is why...

NHC says nothing for 7 days.

Erick is gone.

Clean up goes on...

Video from YouTube below.

Water Vapor Image below.

As always this time of year we watch the BOC where remnants of Erick are now raining along the coast. We watch the Atlantic for odd Subtropical Storms that form sometimes off the East Coast on their way up, up and away. We watch old frontal boundaries dead in the water off the US coast that can spin up as Beth did in 1971. And, we watch the tropical waves; partly we watch because we are curious and partly we watch as they are an indicator of conditions out there that may be changing.

Some years start slow and some start fast. Some years start slow such as 1971 and yet the acrobatic tricks of hurricanes that refused to die went on until the very end of the hurricane season. Some start early and end early as cold fronts show up early and .........

Every year is different. Every year is so different. There are always commonalities. 1985 below began fairly late and yet it raged on and on leaving memories along the East Coast of Gloria forever. Last system formed in December, and yet the first system formed in Mid July.

We aren't there yet.

We will see soon enough.

Have a great weekend!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever.

One of my LA songs........

..on the radio for years.

songs in my head.......

....great song to dance to...

Erick Makes Landfall as a Major Hurricane. EPAC Still Going Strong. When Does the Atlantic Wake Up? Some Thoughts...

 

Major Hurricane Erick makes landfall!

Note it became a TS and got the name Erick

on June 17th.

It made landfall as a Major Hurricane...

on June 19th.

Barely 48 hours after getting it's name.

Major Hurricane Landfall.

This is a perfect example of a storm that forms close in and goes through Rapid Intensification as it approaches landfall. Much like Charley, it had a difficult approach to landfall moving somewhat paralleling the coastline and making the forecast difficult to pin point an exact point where it would cross land way ahead of time. Storms like this play out in real time both in rapid intensification, the timing of eye wall replacement cycles and wobbles in track close in to the coast.

A Major Hurricane landfall in the EPAC in Mid June such as this is very rare and I'm wondering how many were actually prepared for hurricane season both regarding supplies and more so for the emotional impact of such a rare, sudden event.  And, again many online have mentioned how rare Beryl was last year in the Atlantic also in an area not prone to such landfalls .... let alone that early in the season.

Bridgett in 1971 and Carlotta in 2012 made landfall in that region both as Cat 2 hurricanes in mid June, not as a Category 4 Hurricane. Both made landfall a few days after forming as hurricanes have been doing since forever. Rarely do they become a Category 4, but conditions as I have said in the EPAC have been ripe for development and even before the season began there was a parade of waves there in the same area.

There's been flooding since before landfall and remember terrain is involved in that part of the world so flash flooding can be an issue. Erick is moving 9 MPH forward speed but the convection...the rain shield is way out ahead of the Erick's center and will mix it up with convection in the BOC. Not looking for development, just saying there's rain everywhere both in BOC and as it feeds into the atmospheric currents up through Mexico and into the SW and beyond. That'll be something to watch down the road weather wise.

Speaking of waves....they are moving West from Africa out into the Atlantic and each wave takes a bite out of the Saharan Air Layer and as the water warms up in the MDR we will see development. Currently it's the EPAC's time and there's another area being watched that is currently yellow behind Eric. And, the wave train in the EPAC is still going strong as you can see below. Could we see the F storm form down the tropical road there?  

One last thing I want to add.

The forecast is for a large High....

...to take hold over the South.
Over a good part of the country.

Hot temperatures near 100 for days.

High Pressure.

Sometimes.....

When a High takes hold to the North of the Gulf.

Low pressure can form to the South of it.

Ironically I was only looking for Pressure.

I wanted to see the pressures on Windy.com

(so many filters)

Took me a minute ....

Oh........

The GFS is back!

Is the GFS just whistling Dixie or....

...is it onto something.

It had promoted a July 4th Weekend storm...

..a while back.

And now just like the cat it's back!!

Take the GFS with a cup of sea salt.

But never ignore it.

Stay tuned.

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever mood I'm in ;)

Question.........

When does the EPAC take a break?

Count a week and Atlantic may wake up!!

Major Hurricane Erick Explodes Close In...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ERICK IS A MAJOR HURRICANE. Atlantic Still Quiet........So Quiet!

 

That's an impressive, wild loop.

The Rapid Intensification has played out.

NHC always opens low... 

...they said they were on conservative side.

Many said Erick would be like Otis.

And..........indeed.

This is close in Rapid Intensification.

Good post showing the bones of Erick.

I took the day off today from endless news messages on WhatsApp and chores in the house and blogging. I was pretty sure Erick would indeed explode, but how fast and to what intensity and how fast could it do it before landfall. Much like Otis last year in ways. Much like Beryl early in the season in the Atlantic last year. But it's 2025 and this is this year.

Note how close it is to landfall but looking at the last discussion from earlier today. I'll say we may see some wobbles and anyone chasing it will have to react fast and pivot if they can in order to get in the eye. Intensifying Major Hurricanes on landfall have eye wall replacement cycles, explosions of energy and they tend to wobble in the short term tho in the long term they take aim on their target. 

The hot pinks...fuchsia pinks....

are intense moisture.

It's got a pipe line going...

...sucking in the moisture, the fuel.

That moisture will slam Mexico...

..and get into BOC.

Close up....

The intensity of the storm is lashing the coast now.

The pink dot to the WNW is more rapid intensification.

Less than 24 hours to landfall...

....where does the rain go.

As for the Atlantic.

Not much going on.

NHC says nothing.

Even this site below says nothing.

BOC lost the candy stripe red.

So clean up your yards.... 

...trim those trees against the house.

Get a Hurricane Plan.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever.

From my favorite JB CD below.....

Summer Solstice Soon! Hot Summer Days. Hot Summer Nights. Water Warms Up to HOT! Erick ...Where Does His Rain Go? BOC Possibilities Low But There... Stay Tuned.

Graphics from Zoom Earth

Let's start with Erick

Erick is the 5th storm in the very busy Eastern Pacific this season in an area very conducive for development vs the Atlantic that currently is quiet. There are two good reasons to discuss Erick and those are how the NHC handles what may be a difficult forecast and where his moisture may ultimately may go and whether or that moisture could help spark a storm in the Bay of Campeche. Long run on sentence I know, but the last few days have been like one long run on sentence in ways.

The rainfall forecast for Erick above.

Obviously it can ooze into many places.

Graphic above shows the next 7 day rainfall.

Golds and reds seeping into Mexico...

..and into BOC.

Candy stripe red is favorable for development.

Could be from leftovers from Eric

And or combo with a tropical wave.

Is that just rain?
Maybe....

Meanwhile back to the forecast from NHC.

It's a complex forecast.

They admit in their discussion...

...they are on the low side of intensity.

The forecast for 100 mph could be low.

IF so..

NHC adjusts in real time.

Many people have asked me and every person involved with Hurricane Season how the NHC will do with various cuts in budgets and how well they will do this season in forecasting. I know the NHC and when I say that I mean personally and subjectively and they will always do their best to put together a good forecast. Hurricanes are always fickle even when our forecasting gets better on all levels. It's just the nature of the beast and a hurricane is a beast. So from the way the NHC handles Erick we can see how well, how normal they are doing and other EPAC systems before the Atlantic side of the basin gets busy. 

Most online insist there will be no development for the next 7 to 10 days in the Atlantic. I don't like to rule out the possibility of something popping up or changing in the short term. When I say "short term" I mean 5 to 10 days. But what I can say is that the High in the Atlantic is huge and for the foreseeable future not forecast to budge. Water temperatures in the MDR are not yet at the point ready to boil and fuel a hurricane. That said there is always a possibility for development close in and close in gives very little heads up and close in systems in June can deliver huge amounts of rainfall and create flooding. The wind may not be there to worry on, but heavy flooding is always an issue to take seriously. Also note the Summer Solstice is on Friday (coming up soon) and often comes with some sort of system or sign as to what the summer may bring. We are no longer pretending it's Summer because it's Meteorological Summer but we are in full force Summer.  Deeper into Summer the closer we get to the storms of Fall as July brings tropical storms the way September screams Hurricane.

For now.......you can see above........

High Pressure rules supreme in the Atlantic.

Check the red lines around the blue H.

Not much room for a tropical system to form...

...yet alone breathe and grow.

I'll add in a wild card ...

... often a Subtropical Storm forms in June.

Not discussing that ...just reminding you it happens.

So stay safe.

Stay centered.

Stay busy.

Stay happy.

And as always......

Sweet Tropical Dreams 

and 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather and there all day...

Elsewhere whatever 

As always Summer Nights can be wild.

Kids complaining it's too hot in Miami.

Funny I think it's too hot in NC too!

Some nights it barely cools off.

Ice Cream time ;)

or Party at Club Space in Miami....

To each generation it's own.

I've got kids who hang out there....

... hard working young adults.

Work hard, play hard!

Never stop chasing.....