Tomorrow is May! May Brings Changes BUT Still Fronts Sliding Slowly Along... Watch For Close in Early Season Development. Hurricane Prep Impt Still

 

As move into May....
..I want to highlight this post.
There are still cold fronts.

I should put that like "cold fronts"

Temps lowered not really cold.

But... it's a concern for early in the season.

Note not a deep diving front

But a front.

When we have fronts on the move still in May (the edge of May let's say) we have to watch out for weak systems that form at the tail end of the fronts and while delivering a bit of a punch they are are reminders that we are moving into the Hurricane Season. I am not saying here something will form. I am saying this set up is ripe for either quasi development or actual development in May. We are 32 days away from Hurricane Season and it's time to think on several early concerns.

1. El Nino may come on strong and impact the Hurricane Season, but there's a window in the early season for development in places where normally El Nino would hinder. Don't take "El Nino" to the bank as much as hope it's a sign there are less torms and less storms mean a lower chance one may find it's way to your door. 

2. Fronts on the move or more so draped lethargically across the Gulf can help spark early season development.

3. Water temperatures are only climbing. The news from South Florida this morning is it's gonna be "oh my God HOT" and the 90s are creeping into the picture. As the 90s creep in the water temperatures around the state of Florida dangling down into Hot Tub temperatures wills support early development. 

I have always loved serendipity. 

To drown out the news I put on YouTube.

Listening to some of my favorite weather people.

And he was pointing to the front I was writing about!

So took a screen shot and the link is below....

This is to show you exactly what I am mentioning.

We are in a pattern of change.

Last night in Raleigh we had a wild thunderstorm.

Okay a few minutes but first thunder in ages.

That was wild for me...

...then rain.

Heavy Rain.

Okay a burst of heavy rains.

Moving fast.

The Dry High Pressure is weakening.

Moisture is moving in more regularly. 

And we have these weak fronts.

Again note heavy moisture feed from Pacific.

Up into the SW

Moving East.

Juicing up the atmosphere.

Note moisture congregating in SW Carib.

While El Nino may shut down the SW Carib.

It takes a while for El Nino to get it's Mojo going.

So there's a door left open currently....

So before we all get drunk on El Nino...

...start dancing the Conga Line 

Know it we still have to worry on May June July.

In this neck of the woods.

Note S FL could use rain there's a bad fire.

Forest Fire and smoke hangs there.

Fire Season in the Glades comes before...

..drought busters in May Monsoons

And then Hurricane Season.

Mother Nature has a pattern how she works.

She does her job.

You do yours!

Shop for hurricane supplies.

Holiday sales and Clearance sales after work well.

My brother just called.

He's out in Weston working.

It stinks of smoke :(

Anyway ....

...watch for close in development early in the season.

While El Nino gets it's act together.

You get your act together for Hurricane Season.

Link below to Mr Weatherman on YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hc1eY4kO52w&t=426shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=Hc1eY4kO52w&t=426s

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Prepare for Hurricane Season!

BobbiStorm

Where will I be June 1st?

Maybe Miami

Like to go to the Keys....

..will see.

Where will you be??

The Trouble With El Nino................... the Hype is a Real Thing.............Godzilla El Nino? More Anticipation Than Star Wars! The Empire Strikes Back!!

 

No matter when I go on X it's El Nino Time! All day, all night. Okay, the Oklahoma Tornado did knock it off it's throne, but it bounced back fast!

The discussion is awesome. The discussion is delicious. But the hyperbole ...oh my goodness, send help!

The search for some new name for it has been exhausting to watch.

My gosh, just saying "El Nino is coming!" Wakes me up faster than a Triple Expresso! Seriously....

But it's the Super El Nino! I've heard words that normally would only be used to describe a Miss Universe who became a Super Star Singer with her own show larger than anything Taylor Swift could dream of and well you know she definitely has wild dreams. 

I have read, watched and scrolled. I have bookmarked. I have wondered.......

I have stayed out of the fray as an old friend of mine always pointed out to me it was good to do sometimes. He had a brother that drove him crazy, it's a long story. But may I say........there's a chance this El Nino could be remembered the way 1997 "Mother of All El Ninos" was so who knows????

Going along with that frame of mind, I asked Google for advice. No, I never use Google advice as I always make up my own words as that is what I do but some were interesting...

Hmnnn  I don't know.

We are dealing with the Atlantic Basin here.

Well Mostly...

I tried again........

Ocean's Relentless Stalker seems wrong..

..sort of sneaky, passive agressive.

Who wants a passive agressive El Nino?

Okay I will go with my literary history.

I do so love Tennessee Williams 

"The Big Daddy of El Ninos!!"

You read it here first!!

Okay. 

I think Big Daddy would have a lot to say here.

No promises.

No BS

No lies

Just tell it like it is...

Hard Truths on El Nino:

It's not about the number of hurricanes........

...its about the strength of the ones that make landfall.

Quiet SW Carib.... 

...doesn't stop Rapid Intensifiation close in to Florida

Or Louisiana

Or Mississippi

There are just so many factors that matter. Quieter seasons with "no neck storms" as Big Daddy would say are often boring, exhausting as a weak parade of weak storms trace each other in the Atlantic. No huge ACE and everyone holds their breath and waits, and waits watching each meager wave that doesn't do much until one does.  Think Melissa!   Think Andrew!   Think Michael!  Think Camille!

As I always double check everything before I post I checked and yes they were El Nino Years! So according to Google that seems to suddenly have a strong opinion!! That's all you need to know!

Every year there are predictions that seem set in stone, and yet they are merely thrown out into the online world hoping to get noticed, to gain traction and to elevate the algorithim! To keep the public interested and coming back for more...

Hot Water in the MDR (remember that one???)

Low Wind Shear in the MDR and then there was the Saharan Dust from Hell!

In truth something always pops up. Some wrench in the plan, some wrinkle the forecast did not see coming. A vigorous volcano blows in the Caribbean and suddenly what looked like a strong tropical wave train is derailed and the year turns a wave train that   "can't keep my mojo going!" 

What does Arizona State see that other reports do not? I will post that soon. Stay tuned.

Til then.........hang in there. Stay prepared. It only takes one! El Nino or No Nino Miami has been rocked by Andrew and the Florida Panhandle by Michael! El Nino was said to be weak in 1969 and the weak tropical wave that produced Camille did stay weak in the Neptunian Real of El Nino in the SW Carib but then as it cleared the Yucatan........oh my goodness! 

Just hard truth.............

Don't buy all the hype..........

Buy hurricane supplies, hide them away from the kids, your partner or your own appetite! 

38 Days til June 1st! 

Mother Nature always delivers one way or the other. 

You do your part, because trust me she will do hers..........

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

on X @bobbistorm mostly weather holding back everything in inside thoughts to just do weather

Elsewhere....whatever.

Do you have dreams?

I have dreams....

I try not to dream....

..don't like waking up disoriented.

But we all dream....

..what are your dreams??

Drought in the Carolinas! Fire Weather .... Everyone Wants Rain.......... But a Hurricane Could be the Dought Buster in 2026.

 

In 2018

There's a drought in the Carolinas. There's a drought in the Southeast. There's fires from Florida up through the whole region lacking in rain. And every time someone goes on and on about what a bad drought it is this year, and it is and it's broken records in the general Raleigh area do I have to remind you that often in this neck of the woods a hurricane is what finally breaks the drought. Not always, but enough times. As for Florida where there's more fire bans than you can imagine at campsites around the starte, it's been a concern on the drought and fires. 

Would not be surprising to get a named storm.

But that's down the tropical road... 

Short post today but something people need to remember. When you need a Drought Buster, well you may not like what breaks the drought...

Miami 100 Years Since Great Miami Cat 4 1926 Hurricane. Building Boom Then... Building Boom Now! Nothing Changes....

 

I saw this picture in my feed today on Instagram and I smiled. First off, look how Miami Beach looked once it had been cleared of mangroves and lots were being laid out in 1920! The building on the island there was the Allison Hospital, it later became St. Francis Hospital. It was the anemometer at the hospital that showed the Great Miami Hurricane was a mighty Category 4 before it blew away, gone with the wind. I guess we will never know if it was stronger than that last recording. But, the record stands in modern time for the strongest direct hit from a Category 4 Hurricane to impact Miami proper, unlike Andrew that rampaged down by Homestead across the distant South Dade suburbs. While most Miami people living there in 1992 will insist they went through a REAL HURRICANE, it was nothing compared to Palmetto Bay and Homestead as it made it's way on to Louisiana and Mississipi!

For old-timers in South Florida the big fear is always the one that comes up and over the Islands and makes it's first real hit on Miami from the ESE as they move WNW across the Atlantic from Africa. Okay, the Bahamas felt it, but this was one mean hurricane. Neither Cuba nor Hispaniola get a chance to weaken it. It was a huge hurricane. It was a slow moving hurricane. It was a wet hurricane! Andrew was small and dry. This one had Cat 4 winds, an eye that sneakily came out at sunrise making all the new settlers to Miami during Boom Days think the storm passed and the dawn broke and the storm was gone. They were wrong. Ps the back side was worse then the front side and everything weaked from the first half, crashed wildy about to the ground often plunging people into the swollen waters that flooded the city. It was very wet, very large and slow moving. The exactly opposite of Andrew.

Check that track out.

Threaded the needle of Biscayne Bay!

Aventura today would take one huge hit.

Brickell.

Hollywood-Ft Lauderdale.

Everything inland on it's way to the Gulf.

Some links before for you to peruse.........use....... read and imagine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1926_Miami_hurricane

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/miami_hurricane#:~:text=Damages%20in%201926%20dollars%20were,and%20Louisiana%20on%20September%2021.

100 years ago....

...same as today.

There was a building boom!

It came crashing down!

Mother Nature doesn't care about your party plans..

...or your boom!

So stay tuned....

..September 100 years since that storm.

Will Miami be spared again or ...

...will Mother Nature crash her party?

Besos Bobbi

@bobbistorm on X

2023 & 2024 El Nino Years ... yet Beryl, Helene and Milton!!! ULL North of PR Headed Westbound Currently... Hot Dry Ridge Across the SE. Carolina Baking Near 90 Degrees in April!

 

Checkout that SW to NE flow from the Pacific.

Fueling storms in the USA

A wayward Upper Level Low North of PR

NHC knows it's there... 

..watching it slide West.

The RIDGE over the SE

Having a Heat Wave in Raleigh...

....hot and dry!

This is what you'd expect in June.

But April not too soon this year!

Misery loves company they say....

...we are having a drought :(

Continuing on with yesterday's theme:

2023 was an El Nino Year.

It began in January ...kind of..

tho Arlene was June 1st!

Arlene was a meager Tropical Storm...

...formed from a "non tropical low"

You gotta love "Naked Swirls"

Tho meager you can see it's circulation.

2023 was not your Momma's normal year.

An unnamed storm formed in January...

...in the North Atlantic.

Then.......

we had Arlene go the wrong way!

Southbound........

To add insult to injury...

..it caused flooding in SFL

But they had a drought like this year...

...so Arlene was a drought buster!

Too much all at once...

From Wikipedia below...

"Arlene brought 2–6 in (51–152 mm) of rainfall to many locations in Central and South Florida,^[67] including a peak total of 9.82 in (249 mm) in Lakeland.^[68] However, this precipitation was mostly beneficial, alleviating drought conditions along with other rains that week.^[67] The remnants of Arlene generated severe thunderstorms across Southern Florida, with wind gusts up to 83 mph (134 km/h) at the Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport.^[69] Nearby, winds caused the partial roof collapse of an apartment building in Pembroke Park, forcing two families to evacuate. Damage from this incident totaled $50,000.^[70] The remnants of Arlene also dropped rainfall on several islands in the Bahamas, peaking at 8.5 in (220 mm) of precipitation in Cockburn Town.^[68]"

Live water rescues... 

A good promo for the 2023 Hurricane Season....

...as it stated on the start of the season.

As in the beginning.......

...it shall be in the end.

Later in the season we had Idalia

Also in the Eastern Gulf..

More flooding!

Rain signature from Idalia above.

In this case it went towards the North...

vs the South like Arlene.

So know........

.... Hurricanes can happen in El Nino years!

Many forgettable storms in the Atlantic.

But no one forgets Idalia in Florida

Don't forget to prepare for Hurricane Season!

Simple message here.

Watch the news, ignore the hype.

Do what you gotta do ....

Just in case you get that one big Cane in a quiet year!

2024 still an El Nino

(again El Ninos are all different)

Beryl

Boom Boom Boom!

Hellish Helene!!

Memorable Milton.

Another wrong way storm... 

Went from BOC Eaat into the Atlantic

So don't count your "quiet Hurricane Seasons"

until the season is over!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbistorm

Wish the Hot Hot Hot was somewhere else...

...is what it is!

Maybe I'll sip a Ice Cold Hurricane ;)

 

1953 and 2023 El Nino Years .... Deep SW Carib Quiet But Many Storms Making Scribble Scrabble Tracks in the Atlantic! Landfalls!! Stay Prepared!

Hurricane Barbara

Hurricane Carol

Hurricane Florence

What do all 3 of things Canes have in common?

They were part of an active El Nino Year.

1953

NOT a Super El Nino.

But still .... El Nino

Fairly busy year.

Lots of landfalls.

Part of the Carib was shut down...

..few long trackers!

Sometimes El Nino years, that are not Super El Ninos, are busy with lots of weak storms drawing scribble scrabble lines with tracks that seem to trace the previous storm.  Again, Mother Nature always finds a way and when it works it keeps doing it over and over again! Take 2023 for example. 

2023 El Nino 

Note the similarities!

Lots of blue scribble scrabble tracks.

Deep SW Carib is kind of quiet...

Some landfalls.

Monotonous year to track.... 

...or chase. 

They all just kept turning at the same spot.

Tracing each other.

Not much creativity involved. 

A few ocean cruisers provided ACE.

And then there was Idaliah!

And, as these storms formed and got their names and began to make their move all the talk on social media began to explain why this was happening in an El Nino year. Okay, there were extenuating circumstances. Not your Momma's typical El Nino!

And that really is my message, aside from El Nino doesn't stop hurricanes from forming though it does redirect them! 

Every El Nino is different.

You can count on them like chickens, but the chickens often have surprises they can flee the coop and take off for parts unknown...

Time will tell.

1953 and 2023 both had El Nino and had similar busy seasons, though the SW Carib was fairly quiet!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

One of my fav songs Summer of 2023

Wave Goodbye to La Nina and Hello to El Nino!! Big Theme Today in the Tropical Meteorology World. 49 days Til Hurricane Season Begins. Famous Hurricanes in El Nino Years! Mother Nature Always Finds a Way!!

 

I like to give credit where credit is due and Jeff is indeed known as @WeatherProf on X and rightly so as he is good at explaning and teaching us what is going on in the world of weather. He brings up many good points in this post on X and if you're on X please check it out! I have a brother who is one of his biggest fans. 

Is a rare Super El Nino forming? This is a huge question people are debating today. Many believe it is forming and others are waiting to see and are skeptical. Either way La Nina is gone, gone, gone...

So say goodbye to La Nina!

Hello El Nino??

Going back to the video...

...he did a great job explaining this..

2 cyclones working in tandem...

...to funnel the flow East.

So many signs for El Nino....

...but few answers.

Clues... time will tell.

Another point I want to make...

Carib tends to shut down due to shear...

El Nino shear blows the tops off the Tropical Waves.

They fall apart vs forming into Hurricanes.

But not all regions are shut down...

Areas off the East Coast can be more favorable.

Old fronts and transitioning Upper Level Lows.

Mother Nature always finds a way.

Note the extreme heat this week in Carolinas.

This way too early heat warms the water up.

Raleigh flirts with the 90s.

Wilmington NC flirts with 80.

Two months too soon!

Florida hot!

Hot! Hot! Hot!

Warms up the water around FL...

Time will tell what happens...

...over the next 49 days.

But Hurricane Season is scheduled for arrival.

With or without El Nino.

Andrew was in an El Nino year.

For example.

Here's a list from Google AI...

...of memorable hurricanes in El Nino years!

Andrew 1992

Michael 2018
Alicia 1983
Betsy 1965
1935 Labor Day Storm
Idalia 2023

I will point out the point I want to make and yes I was redundent on purpose. 

Andrew, Betsy and the 1935 Labor Day Storm all approached from the East of Florida, and all 3 went into the Gulf and Andrew and Betsy continued on towards Mississippi and Louisiana!

Andrew and up over the Islands hurricane.

Hurricane Betsy 1965 up and over the Islands.

Labor Day 1935 Hurricane stayed N of the Islands

El Nino is not a promise of a quiet hurricane season!

Will discuss this in depth later this week.

Thanks for reading!

Remember stay prepared every year.

When Climo kicks in ....

...something somewhere forms.

But you can say "goodbye to La Nina!"

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps I'll say I hate this song.....

...with a passion.

But it came to mind while writing....

...so going with it.

Let's say goodbye to La Nina!

Many weather people love La Nina.

Oh well....