2 PM Update! Unstuck 20% YELLOW CIRCLE in ATL ---------Which is More Stuck? 2024 Hurricane Season or Astronauts on the Boeing Starliner? Just Wondering...... State of the Tropics July 26th! Curiously Countng Days as Models Tease Us With Different Storms Every Day... Yet Nothing is Happening. But We Got a Great Wave Train Going So.... Eventually We Will Get to the Debby Storm

 

And just like that!!

Everyone on X posts at the same time.

It's a long way off.

The cone can change depending on motion.

After it's formed.... just an X right now.

Zero in the next 2 days.

Look at that... has a little curve to it.

Rudimentary left hook!!

It's a complex wave.... 

...give it time.

It survived the SAL

Stayed alive....

Please keep reading if you haven't done so...

***

7 AM

I'm beginning to know how they feel.

Not really.... but kind of sort of.

So they went up there for 8 days and have been stuck in space going on 50 days, depending when you read this blog. It's been 55 days since the much balleyhooed 2024 Hurricane Season began amid clickbait articles, beautifully done segments on weather shows and headlines in the old school newspapers. No, we do not get them anymore, but I do stand at the market and stare wondering why anyone would want me to spend $6 for a thinned down version of the newspaper that barely would wrap any fish caught at the pier in Wrightsville. But I do look to see what the headlines are and what they felt was important to put on the front page. Spoiler Alert, I studied Journalism for my degree in English and so.... I'm always a little curious what's selling in the world of newspapers. 

We did have Beryl and that was a whole lotta of hurricane excitement condensed into a short period of time, and it'll take YEARS for the islands originally hit by that extreme Cat 5 energy to recover, rebuild and get back to any sense of normal. 

I'm sure the first few days on board the Boeing Starliner were exciting and then suddenly everything changed.

If you are still reading this, know this is true in life often. Something, suddenly happens or changes and it changes everything totally. The same way we keep saying "when someone flicks the switch" on the Hurricane Season..........     And, that is true too!

During Beryl's advancing track towards the Islands, as it inched along looking as if it would survive as I thought it would I'd wake up at 6 AM and grab my phone half asleep to check on how it was doing. It way exceeded my expectations. It exceeded everyone's expectations.

Most meteorology people who study the atmosphere on Planet Earth have a quiet fascination with astronomy and geology and unless there's a press confernce explaining that they haven't found a way to "safely" bring them back yet and they aren't really stuck....because they have calculated they have enough time up there to figure out a repair and .........  the story gets buried behind the very fast moving river of news that has raged the last few weeks. That is a long run on sentence, much like their unexpected space trip that over produced how many days they'd be up there in their Starliner.

It's been 55 days since June 1st and we are now stuck in the doldrums of "nothing happening for 7 days. I have food, way too much food in the house and lots to drink so really I'm okay. I have awesome AC thankfully. I have a plethora of things to do as I wait this period out and a myriad of models promising landfalls up and down the coastline if only one of the waves would develop and does what one of the models suggest it could do IF it develops. 

Something will develop.

Something wicked this way will come.........

So let's look at the tropics and take it apart in real time this morning, in reality without looking at models that often promise what they take away the next day.

Nice Center Grid from Spaghetti Models.

Up on top.... you will see a very, colorful and bright ITCZ as tropical waves leave Africa hot and heavy, excited to begin their journey. And, then they begin to peter out (my apologies to Peter) and they limp along hoping to find a way to keep on going. Truth is with every week that passes by, things are looking way better for those waves than those astronauts. Time is on their side and eventually one of them will spark up and twist and turn and everyone will be more exctited about what's on the satellite imagery than what's on the ensemble models. That said many will still live and die by the models. Note to the North of the waves is darkness, like black as the pit from pole to pole in a way that even William Earnest Henley could never imagined! You can Google that if you wish. Note over near Central America there's a flurry of convection.

On the bottom grid you will see we are back to that diagonal look on satellite imagery. Everything runs from SW to NE as it did a while back before Beryl and before the astronauts were launched into space on their beautiful Starliner. Remember this is why Beryl did not limp into the borderlands of Tex/Mex and was lifted up along the Texas border creating flooding in Houston, tornadoes further inland and flooding storms even further inland along that path that many pointed out looked similar to the eclipse path. Again, many meteorologists are obsessed with astronomy also.

Not alluding to anything mystical or magical here.

Just when you're hot your hot?

Sorry... being a bit silly.

Again patterns.

Always important to watch patterns.

Current Mimic is pressing down again...

...showing the High trying to set up again.

Can it? Will it?

Moisture has been the name of the game..

..in the South.

Almost like Mason Dixie Line there.

Gulf of Mexico Juicy.

Down near Central America JUICY.

Bahamas juicy ..ready and waiting.

ITCZ is a solid colorful line, looking fine.

Just nothing has sparked just yet.

Models perking up again.

In a week or so... should see something.

Something could be an Invest...

..not predicting the return of Beryl.

Stay tuned.

If the NHC takes their crayons out I'll post something. Otherwise, unless I'm in the mood to write I'll probably take the weekend off. But, who knows with me as I'm moody and restless. Good mood, playful but definitely restless. Probably not as restless and moody as the astronauts "not stuck" up there according to NASA and waiting, while the river of news runs restlessly along every day like a raging river.

Sweet tropical dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather. Insta whatever.

With thanks to Dabuh....

..who always feeds me a song for the day.

He knows what I want....

... bet you do too!!

Bud Forms in EPAC - Count 7 - 10 Days For Development in Atlantic Basin. Ensemble Models Jiggly and Fun to Watch. End of July into August 1st...Watch Out. Did Ya Ever Play Pinball??

NHC says nothing for 7 days.

Bud formed in the EPAC

Count 7 to 10 days for the ATL 

Are you watching the new wave?

Are you watching off the SE coast?

Are you staring at the Gulf of Mexico?

Who are you?

Where are you?

What do you really, really want??

Good to see Thor making a video.

Watched while looping the WV loop.

That's just a tease, don't click.

Link below.

Remember Ensemble Models is like trying to read tea leaves ...some swear by it.

Regular models aren't often as much fun but more definitive. Breakfast Tea.

Ensembles aren't showing you "tracks" they are showing you possible different locations where something may form and then where it travels. Follow the bouncing ball. And, often ensemble models sniff out the pattern like a really good Cocker Spaniel or Golden Retriever. 

I kind of wrote the ending to this blog, before I started which is odd for me. I often go with the flow and yet when there's nothing definitive to say it's best to be honest. I also had weird dreams when I was waking up this morning, but I digress and yet it explains a lot.

Ensemble models are fun. They always remind me of pinball machines and there was a time I could take a break and play pin ball for hours, in high platform heels beating the ass off of an odd collection of guys who would freak in awe how I did that. Honestly, I told them it was the heels, they gave me the edge. Barefoot I couldn't get the right angle nor jiggle the machine just enough for it not to tilt and yet get the ball to do what I wanted it to... I could play for hours for free and yes I did. 

When we look at models, especially ensemble models everyone sees what they want to see and if you try too hard it tilts and game over for you, though someone else might get a storm. You can't force it to form and where it forms matters and when it forms matters and that's why one of those tracks may verify perfectly while the others are out of the game. Then it's a marble shot off into a pattern that is set up for the machine to usually win, though sometimes you can beat the machine! 

This is that time of heartbreak for hurricane trackers who want desperately to track and perhaps chase and models are not totally reliable, Saharan Dust is bothering everyone's eyes and doing way worse to the beautiful little tropical waves, bouncing along westbound trying to get somewhere while SAL sucks the moisture out of them if they are too high. Note Beryl was low, stayed low. Late July waves are usually higher and the new wave is coming off at X marks the spot latitude wise to be a contender!

I do think it's most likely going to go lower than most suspect, unless the energy splits as sometimes happens and part of it moves up towards Bahamas and another part sneaks into the Caribbean sliding by the Yucatan it suddenly gets noticed and whoah Gulf of Mexico! 

This time of year if you want to place a bet.... bet on something coming alive just before the Islands. If you like a long shot, go for "hurricane off Florida coast" or "another GOM landfall!!" but in the end that's a recipe for click bait and heartbreak.

But oh that new wave looks good. My concern is ...it has a friend and the friend really, really likes it and the friend behind it is moving faster than the bigger lumbering wave. So do they collide, combine or create an imbalance of energy and we have to watch to see which wave wins?

You can see here the 2 waves and SAL.

The Beryl Kick Ass Wave....

..was sneaky early & stayed low.

This region above is begging for a system.

Tropical system.

TD? TS? Cane?

When, not sure but it will get one.

Often while we stare at waves off of Africa, something closer in is trying to form from remnant leftovers from an old wave, a stalled frontal boundary and an over active sneaky Upper Level Low that all collide and make one hell of a tropical dish. You want to watch a Trailer for a movie or the real movie? Sometimes trailers are better. You want to see highlights of a speech or do you want to watch the speech? Never trust Memes they are funny but... 

Dabuh, my buddy, likes to say
Fork in the road.

In truth sometimes....

..a wave can take both paths in da tropical woods.

One stays low, one wants Carolina Gold.

Don't look where u want the energy to go...

...watch where it's going in real time!

Live in the now!

But always go with the flow...

Life evolves in real time.

So do tropical waves!!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever

Boo! 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZZvbZiD_xc

Thor's video on tropics!

Evolution of Weather Patterns. Atlantic Closer to Possible Development. Juicier! Good Waves.... No Yellow Circles Yet... But Soon. August 8 Days Away...

 

This graphic shows candy strip red ...
..where tropical waves will lift WNW
But weather happens in real time.
Models infer waves get further West.

And yet nothing really happening

Graphic of the day.  NHC says nada in 7 days
Nothing... well there is something to watch.
Tropical Waves rolling Westbound....
...then lifting according to models.

    

Nothing developing now. Just waves....
our purple splotch map shows it better.
Hightlighting the heartbeats of the waves.

It's not one blotch....

Inter Tropical Convergence Zone.

As the SAL dries up....

....the atmosphere moistens up.

Then BOOM!

BOOM BOOM BOOM!!!

Soon...........

Have you made a Hurricane Plan??

If not...why not?

If you live in Hurricane Country...

....get a plan, a good plan!

So let's look at the wave train.

Darkness before sunrise above.

Actually prefer that view....

less distractions.

After sunrise below.

After darkness comes sunlight!

Gray/silver dots are Saharan Dust.

Waves below today.....

...will be hurricanes next month!

8 days til August!

In motion...does something catch your attention?

Waves get better in real time.

Day by day...

we are on the way 

to August!

There's not much to say....other than things are rearranging, bit by bit in the atmospheric patterns across the planet. Everything is connected, related and interconnected when it comes to weather. Nothing develops in a vacuum. It's more about the set up than it is how great looking a wave is, because if the set up is not there to support it then it doesn't develop. If there's shear it slams the good looking tropical wave and knocks the tops of the thunderstorms off and no hurricane.

So stay tuned. Use this time wisely, if you see things on sale that would be good for hurricane supplies throw then in your cart and hide them away somewhere. Like a hurricane treasure chest!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever

Love this song.

Listened thru many a hurricane season...

6 PM Update...... Models See Something.... Maybe 1 Wave Survives According to the EURO.........and EVERYONE Talking About It. What's Mother Nature Hiding Behind Her Back. CLIMO in Charge as SAL Cloaks Coastal Cities in Dust. Nice Waves But Not Long Distance Swimmers. Possibilities Pop Up But What Will or Won't Happen........Stay Tuned. PREPARE - GET A PLAN

The EURO has noticed The Wave.

August 1st..new month.

It's a heartbeat not a hurricane.

Tropical Wave looking for a name.

I posted this the other day.

Been watching the area in the Bahamas.

Near Florida, close in.

Been very primed and ready.

But needs the right candidate....

...to get itself going.

Usually it's a wave that survives... 

Time will tell

I say this to point out I don't only post what the models show. When the  models are quiet and I see a good wave train and a wave coming off of Africa higher than the rest it's a sign something will eventually happen. I do watch the models but when there is nothing on the map I watch the satellite imagery. Also, there has been convection more often than not in this spot in the Bahamas, which is why I have talked on home grown possibilities. And, now the EURO has come on board on this one model run. Either way the signs are there for things to be more active as we turn the page and slide into August.

...a real meteorological guru ;)

Southern Style...

My friend....awesome to follow.

So close in.... trying hard.

Time will tell.

Meanwhile has to stay alive....

...to thrive.

I think the wave train will produce in that time frame.

Stay tuned....

Ps...sometimes it's all about location.

Never. Stop. Dancing.

****

7 AM 

 

Let's look at the Atlantic

While SAL is in charge

There are nice healthy waves til the Mid Point.

No strong model support.

But interesting GFS

(hate when the GFS is boring)

NHC says nothing in the next 7 days.

Tropically depressed ppl online will ask....

...what if there's nothing until late August?

This time of year...

..you can tell the optimists from the pessimists.

Seriously, you have to always wonder as a teacher when the class clown is being quiet. It does develop a tropical wave and then loses it in the middle of the ocean and pops up a small Micro Mini Storm in the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Closes off the Mini storm making landfall If that's the right word here) around the Florida Alabama line. That's a very long range model, but the point here is something changed ever so from empty models without even a fantasy cane. Euro shows nothing. The CMC forms a closed low of some kind off the East coast and slides it along the Western edge of the huge high shoving it aside for a while and then moves up into the North Atlantic. The Icon keeps getting waves out to about 45 West before giving up on them and also shows the East Coast low off to the North Atlantic. They all show a healthy High, especially to the South from OBX to the Florida Keys and sometimes down into the Caribbean.

Any change is some change.

Strong waves are stronger waves than the last waves.

Each strong, tropical wave takes a bite out of the Saharan Dust.

Gotta tell you I like one of the waves and I don't think it's impossible it flares up somewhere further down the line. In the Carolinas we have rain, every day for the next few days. The Gulf of Mexico is loaded with rain on both sides, as Miami is getting slammed again with monsoonal sort of rain and rain clouds hover off coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Sounds like Summer....smells like suntan and people are dreaming about Fall around the corner (after we get through August) so choose the season you love the most and embrace it. If you are a Summer personality, enjoy it as it won't last. If you are a Fall girl, pumpkin spice frappes are coming to a menu near you in South Florida. 

If you ever played football or just love football you will recognize this pattern. The High is playing defense and it's possible the other team needs a new quarterback or perhaps a better offensive line to give the quarterback some time to throw deep into the end zone. 

There's nothing going on, won't lie to you. Online people are showing long range models for Mid August to see if something might develop before September. TWC is are tracking Saharan Dust with interesting stories grasping at something to say in the Dog Days of Summer when Mother Nature is playing possum waiting to burst onto the scene when CLIMO says it will as CLIMO has wrestled Mother Nature back into her normal pattern after letting Beryl out of the gate while she wasn't paying attention.

It's basically that simple. In August waves get stronger, and often something tries to form close in. Fronts are weaker, Saharan Dust is weaker and on it's way out and everyone watches tropical waves while surprise pop up, small systems slide in somewhere when everyone is staring East towards the distant Atlantic. The know it alls know it all saying the forecast for a busy season is a bust, until Mother Nature shows her other hand. 

Prepare. 

Get a plan.

Get a back up plan, in case you want to evacuate.

Know your evacuation zones and know whether you can safely ride out a storm.

Know, like the news this past week ...everything can change on a dime ... every single day.

Sweet Tropical Dreams or dreams of the pumpkin patch.

Whatever rocks your boat.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

If you got a boat you're on it. If you like the beach you're at it. If you hate summer, you're at the movies and hiding inside somewhere with the AC turned all the way up. Find your fun in the sun or hiding from the sun and enjoy it while you got it. As we edge deeper into August, tropical waves are healthy and Saharan Dust is gone like a wicked case of the Covid variant going around and then it's gone. 

Tropics Quiet...Where Could We Look For Surprise Development? Let's Say ...Unexpected.....

 

Short blog today. Not much to say. NHC says no development in 7 days. While that's plausible, it's not carved in stone. We often see a yellow circle pop up somewhere after being insistent nothing will form. Weather happens in real time, models try and predict what may or may not happen. So, that being said where could we see possible development try and "pop up" close in versus a tropical wave that we will track for weeks til landfall. 

From left to right........

1. Around the Yucatan, a hot spot this year, there's convection gathering there. If conditions change in any way even a little, something could try and develop ....so watch for flare ups and persistent convection.

2. The colorful complex of persistent convection in the Bahamas from Florida to Bahamas and to the East of the Bahamas. I don't have to say more it stares in our face getting bolder in color every day. Sometimes in that region close in when we have convection in place and a dying frontal boundary descends with a low attached and gets into that region, decaying yet sort of merging with what is there...sometimes something flares up close in ........especially in July.

3. There's a weak, westbound wave that has hung in there in the Atlantic under the SAL, staying alive despite coming off the same time as the wild surge of SAL exploded. That could get further West and if alive mix it up with one of the areas previously mentioned. Or it could slide West into the EPAC that's trying hard to come alive but so far has been hard to get spin close in versus further West. Always keep an eye on persistent tropical waves that are sneaky!

Stay tuned. Models are awesome, but sometimes they miss things or underestimate an area's possibility for development. And, when they do...suddenly a new model pops up and shows possibilities and then like a sleepy dog the NHC raises up it's head, sniffs around and throws us a yellow circle the way it's owner throws it a bone.

Just my thoughts on July 21st, 2024 in the tropics.

Have a great day...

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever 

Ps........................Keep watching all the popular spots for late July! 

Hot Hazy Days of Summer. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Carolinas. New Daily Rain Is Slowly Breaking Down the 100 Degree Temperatures. Waves Will Break Up the SAL. Wave by Wave... It's Just a Matter of Time. Change Coming in the Tropical Wind

 

Always good to be home after a trip even if you can think of other places you'd like to be, but not today when all I want to do is hang out and play. Nothing happening in the tropics. 

Nothing. Happening. Tropics.

Atlantic Basin Edition.

I wanted to draw your atten to you the "front" that's draped over the South. Not something you expect to see in Mid July during a Heat Wave. And, yes it is still hot but with the cloud cover it's gone down to 89 degrees while a scroll runs under my TV naming every county in the vicinity. Discussion is split on what role frontal boundaries could have on this coming Hurricane Season as we get deeper into Fall. I think there will be fronts, we have them now and if we have them now we could easily have early frontal boundaries. I'm not saying we are having an early winter, I'm saying frontal boundaries are drivers of movement of tropical systems. Beryl was an odd storm for early July and yet a frontal boundary was there in the mix of the mess of ambiguous and contradictory weather events playing out in the tropical weather world. Time will tell.

Here's another view.

Note the ITCZ is suppressed.

Beneath strong high pressure.

Elongated, moving fast westward.

There's a wave coming off of Africa.

It's a nice wave... large, has a look to it.

It'll do one or two things.

It will help juice up the atmosphere....

...that's currently very dry.

And help the next big wave behind it.

it's a process this time of year.

Wave by wave by wave.

SAL slowly let's go.

And, or it'll try to hang in there.

Maybe try and flare up closer in.

Purple splotches growing...

There's change in the wind.

Distant change but it's on the way.

The horrific highs in the 100s...

...are being washed out by rain.

Huge rainfall totals for NC...

..down by Gulf of Mexico.

But for now SAL is in charge.

Each new wave will take a bite out of it!

One wave after another.

Then we will have Prime Time Tropics.

It's just a matter of time.

Besos BobbiStorm

Watching Tropics Down the Road - Use the Quiet Time Wisely. Things Will Get Busy FAST!

 

This is a quick blog this morning with one main message, as I'm on the road and will discuss "down the tropical road" tomorrow when I'm back home. If you look at the image above of the Mimic that measures precipitable water vapor in the atmosphere you will see there is ample moisture out there to wonder where we are going in a week or so. SAL is always a factor, oddly some tropical waves find a way to move intact with it (as Beryl did) or just keep going until they find an environment that allows them to flare up and try to develop. 

So while we often say "nothing happening" or "models show nothing developing" it's important to remember that models can switch on a dime and suddenly there's a yellow or orange circle close in on the NHC main page. Happens enough when we aren't expecting action to remember and so I'm reminding you that it can happen and it's important to stay vigilant and aware of any changes occuring in the tropics that could rearrange your plans.

#1 I'm a purple girl.

#2 purple splotches show possibilities.

#3 often a yellow X goes up in these regions.

IF NHC believes it can be a possibility.

Note the bottom panel.

Cherry stripes in the Atlantic.

Long range.

Often as we flip the calendar after a quiet period suddenly something changes. Environment changes and becomes a bit more conducive (friendly) to tropical development. Healthy waves look healthier...

And, as always watch close in as sometimes pop up issues arise!

That said, stay cool, stay safe, stay happy.

Check back tomorrow.

Sweet Tropical Dreams ....

       BobbiStorm

                @bobbistorm on Twitter 

                           Twitter mostly weather

                                     Insta whatever..

                                                Remember.........

                                                         Time is slip sliding away!!