A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, November 03, 2026
Kyle May Form as a Subtropical Storm Off the East Coast. Rain Still Falling in FL. 2026 Historic Event Like 2023 Historic Event. It's Tropical. It's a Paved Over Swamp... That Still Floods.
I'm starting here, because born and raised in Florida we listen to Bryan Norcross. Well, especially if you went through Andrew. When he decides to speak I take it as a sign we will have something forming. All day yesterday I tried, I really tried to write a post on this and I could not. I told myself "wait til Tuesday" and so it's Tuesday. So here are my thoughts on this area and the heavy rains that swamped parts of South Florida back into the swamp it literally always was before they paved over parts of the swamp to make it a paradise. Mother Nature always has the last laugh.
I do think we will most likely get a Subtropical Kyle out of this huge, large area and it will do what most November Subtropical storms do and that is go out to sea. One of the best parts of Zoom Earth is all the filters you can put on when going wide and when you want to zoom in you can go down to the city getting the strongest rain cell that might be near your house.
1. Subtropical Kyle will most likely happen. Note rain in Northern part of the NHC formation area.
2. Note the rain aka convection down South of Cuba. I'd watch that with low expectations.
3. New system on the move getting ready to rock our world later in the week.
Again there is our potential Development area. 30% in 7 days.
Our area shows potential.
Again below in SW Carib... colorful.
Rain chances still high for Florida today.
Re the flooding Florida rains...
...while they set record.
It always happens....
...it always sets records.
It's part of the reality of Florida life.
With a busy hurricane season...
...or a quiet season.
The rain is gonna get you.
2023. Not 2026.
April...not a rainy month.
4/12/2023 FLL shut down from flooding.
From Wikipedia below.
Matt Devitt is good with graphics.
Truth. Yesterday.
24 Inches of rain in 12 hours.
What amazes me is we always seem to forget how this happens every few years somewhere in South Florida. And, when I say South I really mean South to Central South (a thing if you are a 4th generation Floridian as I am) we are a peninsular surrounded by water and storms can come in and park themselves over our home, business or airport on any given day if the elements combine perfectly to make it a Tropical Rain Cheesecake Day. Lots of pics, lots of flooding and lots of Florida kids grabbing their canoe, kayak or jet ski and hitting the road that is now a canal to play in the rain. It's really the only way you can live in what was for centuries since time began as we know it's a swamp that flooded frequently. Every time the streets flooded as a kid, we all went out and played in the rain and whoever had a canoe or jet ski or in my old hood.... a Swamp Buggy was King of the Road. Every.Single. Time.
We put in flood control canals and we have Forecasts and yet the forecast for this epic event was blown and the flooding rain over performed. I feel really badly for anyone whose home was swamped, literally, with yesterday's rains. It happens. It doesn't always happen to Palm Bay (a great place to live) or Dania or Hollywood where many of my kids live and where the FLL airport that is officially the Ft. Lauderdale Hollywood airport. And FLL like JFK is built near the water in areas that are prone to flooding, but because of our Flood Control work rarely does it ever flood as bad as it did in 2023. Note I did once get stranded at RSW airport in SW Florida, because lightning hit the runways at FLL and it was shut down until they could survey any damage and let planes fly in again.
Each event is historic...
...and memorable.
And yet we tend to forget it....
...til it happens again.
This IS Florida Life.
Live here long enough you'll see...
and then life goes on.
And when it happens again...
..somewhere close by.
We are somehow always surprised.
Mother Nature gets the last laugh. You may have been saved from a Cane.
Are Models Dreaming on a November Storm? Next Name Up Kyle! Some Models Dreaming on a November Like Pattern. What Do U Dream On? Tropics or Winter?
Are models dreaming ....
..on a November Storm?
I'm going to write a bit and discuss some slim possibilities that another Tropical Storm could form and yet it's a long shot (in my opinion) but there's a lot of talk on the street about it. Kyle is the next name up.
The only reason I'll give it a thought is that we are expected to have a deep diving, very strong cold spell in early November. That's rare as usually back home where I am from we rarely get strong fronts that early. Often, we sometimes get a bit of a chill in the air on Halloween. Cold fronts are more likely to show up by Thanksgiving and trust me we are very thankful.
I have not spoken on Winter 2026/2027 but the talk on the street is we may have a continued set up .. a pattern from the South to the North of winter trouble. I don't trust long range models, but I like to look and yes I do think on it. But it is still hurricane season, even if hurricanes were mostly no shows this year. So let's look at the tropics the next 10 days!
A few models show something that tries to develop at the end of the stalled out cold front the models are currently promising. That is a normal set up for a November storm. They come together near the dead front stalled out near the Caribbean and then shoot off to the NE or NNE or even East. Yet nothing has really been normal this year, right? So let's look at models.
Fair Days Across the USA ... Both Coasts Have High Tides and Flooding. Waiting on Winter. Li'l Low Down in Bahamas.. NHC Says Nothing.
I've been quiet.
So has the weather.
There are small craft warnings on both coasts. Yes both coasts have had problems with flooding that's due to the full moon. As everything these days needs a title or a handle for social media ....it's now called the King Tide. Common in Spring and Fall. Nothing new.... except the wild damages along the California coast where it's been stronger than usual battering beach, waterfront homes. Due to El Nino, a hyper active Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season and on the East Coast a plethora of No Name Coastal Storms...some called Nor'easters tho one was actually upgraded as it moved away to and was crowned Josephine. Well, it's been messy, even though it's a quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season. Can we find a Kyle somewhere still?
In the middle of the country some fog warnings. Up in the far NW "winter weather" and down near Mexico there's a tropical storm warning. NHC says Vance is poorly organized and mentions an exposed center which means they are ramping up to pull the plug on Vance. Nuff said.
Mr Weatherman points to this area...
...that was near Hispaniola.
Now closer to Bahamas.
Helping the recent tropical rains in Miami.
He shows the circulation around the Low
(not featured by NHC ...still a Low tho)
On the back side rain has been moving in...
...wild squalls that feel tropical.
They are tropical but not organized.
Added to this the "King Tide"
seen below on Earthnull.
Light green lines packed together...
...means high winds.
Constant high winds.
In combunction with the King Tides..
... the Full Moon
There has been plenty of coastal flooding.
No name, no storm.
But it's been a high price tag for beach businesses.
There's been some flooding of stores.
Streets flooded means no one is shopping.
Not even the tourists.
I think nuff has been said.
But it's the drama behind the calm ...
No named hurricanes does not mean ...
...no problems, no pain, easy sailing.
Speaking of sailing...
Boating not suggested close in...
...where squalls and high winds pound the coast.
Not to mention crazy pop up storms.
I won't lie where I live the weather is incredible, wonderful, beautiful and oh my gosh we are beginning to show Fall Color :) and I love it. I love Miami, but once away you realize how beautiful the seasons are and how awesome it is that the Miami Heat has an expiration date; weatherwise obviously not sports wise.
Subtropical Josephine in Atlantic. Maybe a Fish Storm But Coastal Impacts & Busy Shipping Lanes Blue Skies in Carolinas. Vacation to Greensboro at O Henry Hotel. Oh So Wonderful!
I love Zoom Earth.
It's awesome for a wide view.
You can move it around anywhere...
...and then zoom in!
It's not static or boring.
It puts U in control.
Of what you want to look at ....
...there's Josephine.
The yellow area with 10% is highlighted.
And check out that wild low near England.
Ireland, Spain.
October gives us huge storms.
cold air there very noticeable...
Steals my attention ....actually!
NHC below.
Josephine is forecast to hit the road....
... it's a long road.
I also love the Interactive Cone.
Shows time stamps well.
You can zoom in.
There's a pattern here ...notice.
Still forecast to have 80 MPH winds.
Subtropical.
Strong impacts across a wide area.
Look how tight those isobars are....
far from the center.
Still slamming the beaches by us...
Love this site that shows wave heights.
Well shows a lot but also shows them.
Beware at the beaches ....
...even as Josephine waves goodbye!
Now let's talk about Fish Storms.
Josie is a Fish Sorm to many.
True Confessions: I had a friend online years back. They had a job working with ships at sea....and they worried on the storms that endangered the shipping lanes and those big ships that needed to beware of big ocean storms known by many as FISH STORMS! They'd remind people just because there are not islands in the track, that doesn't mean there are not people on ships at sea in the shipping lanes. And, they are correct there are dangers even in the path of what many perceive as unimportant "fish storms" so keep that in mind.
The NHC and it's many sister and brother departments take into consideration things such as ships at sea, people onland far from a huge Subtropical and they forecast as they see fit. In every year, busy or slow, there are early and late season storms such as Josephine.
That's a whole lot of shipping lanes.... ..in the path of Josephine.
Keep that in mind.
Otherwise the weather is oh my gosh awesome. Rather cool nights..... cold at 5 AM! Blue skies. Bright sunshine. Warming up to 73 degrees. Woke up to 39 degrees.
Pick your favorite hour ;)
I'm back now after being away for two days on mini vacation up in Greensboro at the beautiful, amazing, awesome O Henry Hotel. Words really do not... cannot convey the wonders you see there with attention to detail, their pleasant staff and their many ways to spend time from tea time to late night cocktails and everything in between. Considering one of my degrees is in English.... it did have me at it's name alone and worth knowing they have a colleciton of his stories in each suite a present from the hotel itself. Floral arrangements and seasonal decor. Being it was the week of the High Point Funiture Mart Show up the road, and no I didn't go we were there as my husband had a seminar there. I killed some time wisely in the patio outside the restaurant and the bar sipping a new age Old Fashioned, enjoying the breeze and conversation with other guests and Jared who works at the restaurant there. Fall fully in the air and pumpkins on the breakfast cart. Also, they have the best music. It's that combination of old classics and modern melodies that anyone can enjoy. I heard this song and it made me smile, as a good friend always loved this song and the skies were indeed oh my gosh so blue.
A trip there is definitely worth the time and it takes you back in time to when a night at a hotel was an experience to remember vs a place to crash and get some sleep on a business trip! Linger, lounge, take a bath and enjoy. Wander the gardens. Sit in the lobby. Smile. Breathe in... breathe out.
Subtropical Storm Josephine Forms Off the East Coast. NHC Forecasts Possible Hurricane Force Winds. New Yellow Area in Atlantic.
This became apparent today ..... as some of the most conservative meterologists pointed out and explained why it looked like a Subtropical. This is not a hype game, it's what a Subtropical is and a very typical October Subtropical Storm that years back would have been described as a Hurricane or Gale before we had an NHC. Journals, old style blogs, carefully recorded details of the off shore storm and how much flooding the beaches had as well as which trees had damage. They meticulously listed which ships went missing or washed up on a beach. October storms in this region are nothing to laugh off. And, often they do much damage along the coast before they get a name from the NHC while on their way out to sea somewhere else. That said many places along the coastline are in Wind Probs for wind probabilities and people in the cities shown below should pay attention to their local NWS and weather experts! Again trees have leaves on them and are more likely to come down in areas getting blasted by the offshore storm.
Note Cape Race Newfoundland to the North and to the South Ocean City Maryland are in the wind probabilities . In between you have JFK Airport and most of New England. Again this is a coastal Storm on it's way out to sea, but much damage can still be made from such storms.... especially as this one has been around for days in formation stages building up it's energy. It's a lot of weather and wind even if "just a Subtropical" so keep that in mind.
Look fast.
The sun is setting
on Josephine.
You can see the center.
You can see how large it is....
...and that IS the signature
of Subtropical Storms.
NHC discussion
80 MPH is possible.
Earthnull shows her size.
When I say size I mean influence.
From New England to the Carolinas.
The beaches are churned up.
The wind is blowing.
Ships at sea ...
...need to pay close attention.
Looks like a Rorschach test
I see a Giraffe personally.
That's it. Just got back from a Mini Vacation up the road to Greensboro where my husband had a Seminar at the O Henry Hotel .... one of the most beautiful, well run hotels anywhere. The suites are perfect, the bathrooms are incredible (yes this really matters if you have ever been there) and yes the bar, the restaurants, the Afternoon Tea is the height of Southern perfection. Honest. Love it. And, saw some leaves beginning to turn here and there as we drove back on the back roads so I could see the real Carolina. Pulling into Raleigh the NHC named Josephine. Perfect timing.
We all need to get away sometimes. I really needed it.
That's it ...will update tomorrow.
But .......worth remembering that area to the SE of Josephine stole my attention all day. Time will tell. It could go out to sea, but it could also get a name. Time will tell.
Coastal Storm... Subtropical Josephine? Definite Maybe. Have to Just Keep Watching. 40% Orange from NHC Currently.
The areas off the East Coast has a 40% Orange chance given to it by the NHC It could become a Subtropical Storm if so it would be Subtropical Josephine. This is the right area for such a storm, right time of year and an accurate name for a short lived system that's quite the storm and not going anywhere fast. Though eventually it pulls out to sea. Currently, it's not an Invest even. But there's a lot of talk among meteorologists and weather people. And, it's something to talk about.
It's not like you have to look hard to find it.
Zoom in there's a little center there.
We will see.
Watched Bryan Norcross this afternoon. I like to hear him weigh in.
NHC Blinks! Weighing In in the Coastal Low. Nor'easter. Maybe Subtropical. Regardless..... Yellow Circle 30%
8 PM Saturday Night.
Words matter so straight from the source.
"Strong Non-Tropical Low Pressure area"
"Subtropical possible"
"Move slowly erratically"
REGARDLESS..........
High Winds
Coastal Flooding
Dangerous Surf
(check local Warnings)
that's what they said.
EURO Monday 8 PM
(lots of coastal erosion)
GFS Monday same time.
Wednesday EURO...still there.
The cold front went through early, lots of rain, wild wind and blessedly wonderful cool to cold air streaming through faster than originally forecast by most. About what I expected as it seemed to be on the move Friday late in the day. Woke up to rain, steady rain and the curtain facing North in the bedroom was blowing like a sail in the wind. Smiled. Rain stopped near Noon, cold air blowing and the tall pine trees were dancing wildly, weaving back and forth in the wind. Just as I hoped. Won't lie, it's chilly and I should either turn the ceiling fan down or shut the window some or just dig out some warm winter pajamas. :)
Heard mandatory evacuations on OBX and Ocracoke for tourists. Ferries not going to be working. People on the Banks being told to expectd to be stranded some for a few days. Pay attention to watches, warning and hunker down. This means you most likely will see more homes lose battles with the waves expected to pound the beaches for a part of the week. Time will tell and we will see how long it moves erratically or moves up the coast.
I'll do a full update Sunday AM. This is just to say that NHC finally weighed in. Good, it elevates attention and good to have NHC's thoughts on the matter.
Watching the Miami Hurricanes play FSU ... a game with a strong rivalry and FSU is more motivated than most teams to play hard and Currently giving the Canes a run for their money. Go Canes...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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