Climatology. How it Always Wins! Snow in Mid January in Raleigh......... Can Happen Anytime BUT.......Usually Mid to Late January. (Like Hurricane Season and Tropical Wava & Looking Back 5 Years Ago ... Henna Party & Wedding in Israel!

 

So this was yesterday...... snowy.

ICE after Sleet.

This is today.

After the Winter Storm.

This doesn't always happen but it almost always happens in Raleigh. This is one of the reasons people move here from "Up North" because they "love the seasons" but don't want to "have to shovel snow all winter" which I have heard over and over from new arrivals. Florida is pretty for a vacation, but all those "BecauseFlorida" stories online scare people away and the Realtors often assure then rarely does it snow here. 

To be fair it can snow on Thanksgiving as it did about 14 years ago or on Christmas as it did when the whole state got snow (and anytime in between) but CLIMO weighs in and usually delivers snow from Mid January to Mid February so reliably that my Facebook Feed has 3 or 4 times in the last decade it actually snowed yesterday and today in Raleigh. You know, those annoying "see what you did on this date" on Facebook? Well, I clicked on the link as it's a holiday and we're taking it easy and oh my goodness, so true it does snow most commonly Mid January. Kind of the way Africa spits off incredibly beautiful waves and they rarely really develop until Climo kicks in no matter what the models show. There are always exceptions to the Climo rule.

So let's take a look back on history for this general day in Raleigh History!

2018.

January 17th!

I did a double take.

Because yesterday I posted this...

...but it wasn't all icy, crystal this is white.

Oh right.....2018.

That tree i nthe foregrown is way bigger now.

January 2016 flakes began to fall in my backyard!

January 17th!!

January 17th, 2013!

Old house...watching snow at night.

Covered the ground.

Another January 17th...radar with snow.

So come April and May when we start to see incredible waves coming off of Africa, and models begin to develop the really great waves...........remember CLIMO really gets a vote with waves and snow!

It also reminded me I was in Israel 5 years ago, still blogging as promised by estatic to finally see Israel, be there for my daughter's wedding party and enjoy seeing Jerusalem and the Wall and a Henna Party that evening for the bride, as is the custom with Persian Jews and my son-in-law's mother is Persian while is father is Yeminite!

You can Google it.

It's a custom by a lot of Middle Eastern Jews ;)

And many Palestinians and well it's Middle Eastern.

But every one is a bit different.

Lots of food, music and incredible dancing!

Henna mixed with fragrant herbs is brought out in a bowl.

There are candles... sweets.

Some use it, others hold onto it ... some do henna.

Everyone dances.

So yes I was in Israel 5 years ago this week!

Rarely do I leave Raleigh in January but it was a wedding!

A wonderful, beautiful wedding!

This week's forecast for Raleigh

Cold temps and snow on the horizon!

Back to weather! Another Winter Storm is forecast to head to the Carolinas and it's neighboring states. Similar, here we go again sort of winter dance where the locals who love snow (me) pray and hope and wish and some even drop ice cubes down the toilet to make the "air" cooler (it's a kids superstition game here) and only time will tell. But, the difference is the temperatures will be way colder and it's more likely to stick around more than 6 hours before melting!

Snow in Raleigh ... 

...and then......

Could be ICE down by the coast!

Stay tuned!

Be well.

Be happy.

And if you have a chance.......

Dance!!

Luckily I know how to dance Bollywood style...

... I had a lot of fun at that party!

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

or this time of year...

Sweet Snowy Dreams!!

Ps......to really appreciate snow you have to see it up close and personal! There's a smell in the air and it's clean, very clean when it's falling and almost pristine, magical, mystical ... it transfixes you and you are in awe or you dance around like a child seeing it for the first time. If you don't like it you can fly away to Florida to hide from it but it's something everyone should see at least once and if they like it... do it again and again. I went to school in Brooklyn, I saw snow for a few years and have seen it in many places but it Raleigh, before it melts, it's white and beautiful unlike a busy NYC street where it eventually turns gray, dirty and clumpy!  

Enjoy the music.....it was the most popular song five years ago so heard it nonstop on the trip.  And enjoy the Henna Party Music to get a feel for the adventure.

yes my daughter sang it often........

...in various versions in the car on the radio.

English, Spanish and a Hebrew version!

Our party was all girls and women.

Think a Batcherlor Night Party ...for the girls!

But here's an idea if you are curious!

Updated!! Winter Storm... MLK Weekend Winter Storm? Izzy? Whatever You Call It ... It Delivered! Snow at Sunrise, Sleet Later... Now Freezing Rain & Ice on Pines. In FL Tornado Warnings Galore... Crazy.

Updated 8:30 pm

It’s been a crazy day of ever changing forms of precipitation from snow to sleet to freezing rain and eventually heavy rain as the warm nose moved in as the models verified perfectly. I have power but many do not across a wide area, across many states. 

We had icicles hanging from the roof, trees covered in a thin layer of ice. I watched as a small branch on a large oak tree crashed down in the wind.  Tonight  while out on the balcony for a moment I realized a light in the townhouses behind me was shinning down onto the ice on the pine trees turning them into golden glitter as the yellow streetlight illuminated what was left of the ice at twilight.  Simply beautiful!!  

Snow is magical. Sleet is neat and has a beat!

Freezing rain is mesmerizing but a bit scary as Ice is nice to look at but it can be dangerous and take the power out .  

I’m tired.  I barely slept. 

Maybe later in the week we will have another chance at snow!

Thanks for following along … and for joining in the conversation online.

***

The whole East Coast under a variety of warnings.

This is impressive.

In the old days we'd call it a SuperStorm.

Not sure what the rules for that is but...

...from Tornadoes in Florida to Snow and Ice...

Wind Warnings Off Coast..

Applachia getting slammed.

Huge Storm system.

Radar signature... 

Looks like  Jelly Fish with EYES and a nose!

Icy Jelly EYES!!

I have feels like 18 degrees in Raleigh.

The tail is producing severe weather and torandoes in FL

In Raleigh we had snow....

...then sleet.

Sleet is neat it has a beat!  Really...

...now it's freezing rain.

I can upload some videos but you get the idea!

I woke up just before 6 AM.

Love that time of day... Twilight!

My red poinsetta hanging on nice and bright!

It began snowing on time at 6 AM.

Sat outside in the twilight sipping coffee ..smiling!

Wore my super duper warm robe over PJs ;)

Snow on the ground, in my hair...

Just a crazy jam packed day today weather wise.

I'll update later.

Winds are supposed to pick up later today.

With ice accumulating on branches and wires....

... many people will lose power.

Many people have lost power.

Snow impacting Atlanta.

Charlotte having problems.

Area from Charlotte to Columbia SC ICY

A real Southern Winter Storm!

Stay tuned!

Stay warm!

Stay happy!

Go with the flow weather wise... 

... Cantore and Mike are in Asheville.

Personally I love being home enjoying the weather!

I can fly to snow anytime....

...but to have it come to me.

Watch on my balcony....

.......sip a hot chocolate!

Loving it!

For live coverage you can't beat Ryan Hall, well if you like people who talk fast and I do so enjoy he's doing a good job covering it all LIVE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZjh1Y94vZo

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

I'll update later as things here unfold!

Winter Storm Warning For Me in Raleigh.... Tonga Eruption. News and Sharing My Thoughts on the Beauty of the Day Here...Waiting for the Winter Weather, Snow, ICE, Sleet...

That's Ice on the wires........

Winter Storm in Raleigh...

... in NC

Charlotte to Triad to the Triangle!

I'm in Raleigh so I will talk on Raleigh.

Think Global, Act Local... 

...satelligte imagery looks like the models showed!

My Winter Storm is on the move.

It's been a busy night in my world with multiple stories going on and we are waiting to see which type of winter weather we get the most of tomorrow. The streets have been brined, it was extremely cold today and gray. As wintry as I can remember it looking. I walked to synagogue today about 3/4 of a mile from where I live and enjoyed staring up at the trees, bare of greenery showing their intricate beauty ... every branch is a sort of poetic symmetry in black and white and shades of gray on a day like today. There's a large private school near my house that has large grounds and it always amazes me that in the winter when you look at the line of trees (all the same) how much each tree has it's own unique beauty yet together they just flow in their beauty. 

The synagogue I attend looks out onto a natural area in the back of our property that always shows off the seasons beautifully. In the Spring wisteria turns everything shades of lavender, in the fall it looks like an advertisement for Autumn in Raleigh and in the winter it's quiet, a few green pines poke through the brown bare branches that allow you see what you can't see in the summer as in the summer it's just a wall of green. Since Covid we are holding services in the large social hall that has many windows that look out on the natural area. People feel safer in a room with high ceilings and more room and I hope after Covid (it is leaving right?) that we continue to pray in that room that has so much natural light and shows off our beautiful landscape.  Sorry no pictures as I don't keep a phone on me on Shabbos and I don't use the phone. It's a really different sort of day and so trying to convey to you how beeautiful it was both in the stark grayness and in the beauty of what I saw while peering out into a natural area that will look very different 12 hours from now.

I'm writing about this because I moved my chair near the window and between praying and staring out at the beautiful view wondering what will be covering it on Sunday (some snow? sleet? ice....) this bright red, orange red thing caught my attention and had to really stare a bit to see it well and yes it was a bird! Okay in Miami this may not be strange but you don't see cardinals like that usually deep in winter round here, once in a while but this was really wild. Nearby was it's mate, not as brightly colored but very big as was the male cardinal. Then I noticed lots of little birds .. my friends call them "snow birds" in that they predict the weather, little birds close to the ground darting about in one large flock that took off and left just in time as a large hawk flew by and then more birds flying about ..........way more than you normally see in the winter time and I smiled. And, I thought "wow, this winter storm is really happening" and I smiled.

It's the little things when you are watching weather. The stillness of the air today, not a pine leaf was moving. Cars were driving about fast, yet there were not joggers out jogging on the busy street and trust me there are always joggers on Saturday even on cold winter days. Inside the synagogue we had a small meal after the service, we talked, chatted with a few people passing through and then walked home through the cold, gray, colorless world.. okay always green from the pine trees and a few magniolas.

I stared at the brine on the highway.... a real sign of "something about to happen" and even the cloud cover changed it's patterns from the walk over to a cloaked sky on the way home, lower than it had looked earlier. 

After Shabbos was over the phone was busy with kids calling, while I checked the models and read NWS discussion, which is insistent that on some level this winter storm will deliver.. something wintry. 

In Iowa, it dumped more snow than they have had in over 50 years. Sometimes, but not always, storms have a sort of history... they overproduce or underproduce consistently. Tomorrow we will see what we will see.

 

I've charged my phone battery packs, I have what I have and will see if we keep power or lose power. I obviously want the storm, the whole shebang winter package it's promising and I know we could lose power as winds are supposed to gust as high as 40 MPH tomorrow after the branches could be covered in Ice. 

Anyone can look at a model and read the NWS discussion, but when you quietly observe the little signs before a storm it seems real in a different way and I needed that today.

So do I get thunder and Ice tomorrow?

When that bad passes over Raleigh on it's way to the coast?

That's the NAM above.

Seriously how do you take that seriously?

You just prepare the best you can...

...and wait to see what will be tomorrow.

OH that's SNOW later in the week!!

A chance of real snow.

We'll see.

I'm loving this winter here in Raleigh.

I'm old school... I like reading discussion.

It changes and is updated.

Words matter.

So with prayers for the Rabbi in Texas...

...and the other hostages.

I pray ...hope... somehow this ends peacefully!

Hope he gets to see his children and wife again.

I don't talk about this often but it's a part of life here, we have a police guard during services. Note a Church nearby also has a police guard outside during services. When my husband got back to Temple for evening services he and his friend found 2 cop cars in our parking lot. Kind of "hey, what's up?" and it turns out they were trying to reach the Rabbi and wanted to check if everything was okay by us. That was nice, but it was also our first clue something was going on in the world out beyond my Winter Storm Bubble I'm in.

I also read about the Tsunami in California from the crazy, wild volcanic eruption in Tonga. While it may not be a huge tsunami, the fact that water level was raised and it was dangerous for swimmers was huge. I mean we always hear of warnings and then the warnings are dropped but not today. 

Crazy day today news wise, as a friend warned me in my WhatsApp... yes, indeed. So I'm going to watch some video from the Tonga situation and go back and forth from CNN to FOX to TWC as I watch things I didn't expect to watch as I thought I'd be doing which was just obsessing on the weather.

Y'all know how much I love geology and so that's big. Here we were worried on Las Palmas and then a Tonga eruption leads to waves actually making it to California and yeah we may have an Ice Storm tomorrow! 

Stay tuned. Hopefully I keep power, if not I'll be on the phone........... 

We will see what we see at daybreak!

Sweet Winter Storm Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps I do think we will get sleet but how much snow, will it rain at the end or turn over to snow or will sleet and freezing rain 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEXP5SNwMrE

Winter Storm MLK Weekend 2022. What Will the Storm Deliver? It's Complicated......

 

Eric Webb above.

Allan Huffman below.

I'm under the D in Allan's map above.

He will update again tomorrow.

It's hard to explain to relatives back home in Florida what type of Winter Storm we are going to have, if models stay the same between now and Sunday. From past experience here something always changes. Either way it's never a cut and dry set up and the only way I can explain it is.......it's complicated!

Any variation in the strength of the CAD vs the Warm Nose and add in timing (night temperatures are colder obviously) and the track itself of the Low and whether or not it makes some odd sort of retrograding dance step before heading North to create more winter weather misunderstandings in the Mid Atlantic.

What I am not discussing here tonight, but will tomorrow is the huge wind maker of a storm off of the East Coast that will batter Cape Cod and other areas that stick out into the Atlantic begging Mother Nature to hit them with her best shot!

Our Winter Storm... Upper Left Corner.

Atlantic Storm ..in the Atlantic ;)

Obviously Iowa and places to the NW of the Carolinas (and Georgia) will be getting clobbered as this storm finally makes it's move dipping SE until it pulls back North again. Does that mean at some point it's as if the storm runs us over and then backs up and moves back over us again? 

Maybe.

I ordered some water, that I needed anyway, so I have a case of FIJI water in the living room after I pushed it into the apartment after the Amazon driver carried it upstairs. Gosh I do love Amazon. I needed it anyway, as supplies have been sparse in favorite items before the threat of bad weather I stocked up. I have eggs and i have plant milk in the pantry so other than bread that I rarely use as it's so carb heavy ... I'll buy some because it's a Winter Storm so apparently I don't really need to be Paleo this weekend! I do have Challah Rolls for Shabbos so really I'm set. I also have a stack of magazines to read, books and assorted genealogy notes I can go through should I lose power, but I really hope I don't lose power. Note it's important to charge every battery pack you have for your phone if you don't have a generator!

Parts of South Carolina and North Carolina are going to deal with ICE and not just a glazing. Someone wins the snow battle and usually thats the areas with the most elevation (height matters in this case) and how much will the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico feed into this battle of the bands of winter weather?

Stay tuned.

I'm inured myself to not getting hyped up and yet I enjoy a little hype.  I've accepted that the local weather people and NWS try their best to stay on top of any changes and in Raleigh we usually get a mutltiude of frozen weather of some kind, usually not the kind we want. But sometimes.........we win the lotto!

Time will tell.

I'm going to sleep.

Yes, I do love living up here for many reasons. I still love Miami and lots of other places but the chance of having tropical weather and winter weather is a neat treat!

Sweet Tropical Snowy Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... there's tropical energy involved in this as the system develops a long tail and moisture feeds it from the South while Cold air dives down into a complicated mess.

Winter Storm Poses Questions. Snow or ICE or Sleet or Freezing Rain or Just Rain? Warm Nose? What Is a Warm Nose. Hold My Coffee & I'll Update on Thursday

 

This basically is a hold my coffee post!

I want a Pistachio Latte badly!

I'm still waiting on Thursday.

Thursday we get a better handle on this Storm

Til then it's all speculation, hype and rambling dreams.

Modern Art, by Winter of 2022!

Could this get any more complicated and confusing? It looks like Mother Nature sent us the Abominal Snowman to play with our minds by way of the models. The truth is we are not sure what is going to happen other than we are having one interesting, messy, intense Winter Storm event that will impact the South (as well as other areas we are totally ignoring here in my blog) that may seriously deliver to some cities in it's path snow, freezing rain, sleet and rain and in what order and for how long these fall we are not yet sure yet.  There's the issue of the "warm nose" which to me sounds like a sweet ole hound dog out on the deck with his warm nose pressed up against a cold sliding glass door breathing heavy! But that warm nose really complicates things, as does the whole CAD issue of cold air daming and exactly where and when?

Again remember it's still in the Pacific.

Oh and it has friends........

Another look at the complicated forecast...

Lasagna Storm for the Carolinas.

Layers of winter weather.

Makes for a crunchy storm...

..and dangerous travel.

As always elevation matters!!

Mtns get snow faster than Raleigh.

Charlotte... Ice or Snow?

South Carolina????

Atlanta is in it now too!!

Also this goes up the coast!

Wild winds offshore Mid Atlantic.

NY NJ Long Island

Again it's still over the Pacific!

Miller A or Miller B

Or does this storm throw the game book out totally!

https://weatherworksinc.com/news/Miller-A-vs-Miller-B

Official NOAA forecast for Sunday.

That's a lot of isobars and Raleigh ...

...is kind of squished in the middle!

So honestly hold my coffee and/or buy me some LOL and on Thursday I'll give my thoughts after watching mid-day models. I'm watching it carefully and discussing it with experts that I respect who know Winter Weather better than I do, however after living here over a decade I've come to understand why it's so complicated and often a day out meteorologists are not sure where the dividing line will be between snow, sleet and freezing rain (ice) and more often than not that "line" crosses Raleigh. I prefer doing tropical weather but I do love me a good winter storm so ... I'll be back with new data and when it's come together and is more solid.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram ...whatever ;)

Cold Enuff For a License to Chill... Watching Winter Storm Models... Forecasts, Loops & Reading NWS Discussion. Do We Get Winter Storm This Weekend?? Stay Tuned........

 

The above is the GFS for Sunday.

A shield of snow.

Wild weather.

Long draped front across Florida.

It's a model......

......a snapshot of that possibility in time.

This is reality above!!!

Cold, dry air flowing down into the South.

It's cold... my heat came on.

I keep the heat low lilke AC.

It's 32 degrees - feels like 27 degrees!

Check that chill map out above.....

www.spaghettimodels.com has lots of winter maps.

Where's that huge winter storm we are talking about online nonstop? It's far away in the Pacific. The NWS Discussion for Raleigh explains that perfectly as shown below. Well, you have to turn the world around to see our players that will come together to create some sort of Winter Storm. The models offer an ever changing array of possibilities that change hourly depending on the specific model! The actual forecast for this weekend is shown below, but remember it's tweaked in real time depending on new model information and as the storm comes together.

Another possibility from the ICON model.

Similar but different from the GFS above!

Note the NWS discussion below.

Details and words matter as you can see above "because the system is currently over the Pacific ocean in a relative data-void area for model information" and that's because once over land, the various NWS offices will launch baloons, collect data and we will see what we really have and the models will be way better.

This is similar to what I say over and over during the Hurricane Season when I say "until we have a defined center and that data is put into the models we won't have reliable model solutions" as details matter.

As for wishing, you can take it to the bank that I'm wishing for SNOW this weekend in North Carolina, and praying hard that our snow doesn't go South or East or North, because I really want a real snow storm!

I'm so hooked on snow that when my daughter posted this picture of my grandson running into the house from the bus.... my mind saw "OH MY GOD LOOK AT THAT SNOW!" ;) It's cold there... as in 1 degree currently in the Monsey NY area. There's snow on the ground and it's not going anywhere soon! Yes, I could go up there but really laying low this month and I want the snow to come to me!

Stay tuned.........

We will know soon enough. I'll take take this seriously on Thurdsay ... but watching, reading and obsessing!

Living in North Carolina I have many favorite weather friends and people, but I lean heavily on what Allan Huffman says as he is careful, cautious, analytical and more often right than wrong. If you live in this region he is very good to follow.

I also lean heavily on a blend from the following.

https://www.facebook.com/wxbradCLT Charlotte NC

Ed Piotrowski in Myrtle Beach...showing what I am saying in this blog. It's far away still...

So stay tuned, check back tomorrow. Today I'm doing my thing and listening to Jimmy Buffet, as it's chilly outside and I have a license to chill!

Have a wonderful day!

Stay healthy, stay happy and remember to smile!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Carolina Snow Storm? Models Promise YES! But Will Models Do a Lucy and Pull the Football Away? Magazines, YouTube and Dreams of Snow!

 

Models, tantalizing, teasing... promising.

So often it's like Lucy and the football...

Living here in this part of the Carolinas we often see these wild models and then Mother Nature pulls the football away and well it's not pretty for snow lovers round here when a promised snow storm is wrenched away. Greensboro gets the snow or it shoots off down towards the coast. But so far models keep coming in slightly exciting. I don't let myself get excited until we are closer in and I can see the NAM, because until I can see the NAM I consider it's long range. I want this storm.

This system would be so impressive.........

...if it verifies.

It's kind of like during hurricane season when you don't want to be in the 5 day cone, because then the cone fades away and wiggles out of reach. Every model has a point where it pulls the ball away, then on the next run it's there again and the closer you get in time the details seem more believable.

This is why I stayed in NC, a place where I can do tropical weather and enjoy a good snow storm if the stars align properly. A real storm with the local weather talking on it, friends and neighbors asking eachother what they think as if they all have a PHD in METEOROLOGY! Everyone has an opinion and everyone rushes to the store to buy bread and milk (it can stay cold outside if the power goes out) and eggs, lots of eggs. I've been hording eggs this week in hopes of being ahead of the game. 

I want to hightlight YouTube sites this winter, and so leaving this video here. He's nice, easy to listen to and he explains things well.

I've watched a lot of videos.

If only the storm delivers......

It doesn't take much to make me happy, excited and waiting like a child to see if St. Nick will really bring snow!  

But unlike hurricanes that form far out at sea and lumber towards land with advisories every six or three hours.............Carolina snow storms form as they cross the state line often and then they either go poof or explode. Very different storms from the start to the finish. Hurricanes are easy to predict and forecast, Carolina Winter Storms are very difficult to lock in. And, yet is it really locked in or is this an illusion?

I sat up last night with a cup of tea trying to get sleepy enough to fall back to sleep. Snowflakes danced in my head and I counted every snow storm I've been here since I moved here 14 years ago. Out State, an incredible magazine, has a fantastic article enumerating the many different types of Winter Storms we have had over the months when Winter storms delivered. I was here in 2010, I remember it well and smiled at the thought that I've lived here long enough to have been through a few epic winter weather events.

2015 was fun!

Okay vase broke.

Miami girl didn't see that coming......

... more snow fell but it's a pretty picture!

https://www.ourstate.com/when-the-south-freezes-over-historic-winter-storms/ It was a snow lovers delight to stare at the pictures, check out the winter recipes (including Snow Cream) and to help focus and channel my energy into the reality that we could get a Winter Storm (please, please, please) as the last two years here have been puny, paltry systems that did not materialize and barely a dozen discernable flakes fell from the sky. But, after the recent 3 hour snow fall we had that did nto stick, I take that as a promise of more to come later this winter.  

I love this magazine.

What do you love?

Hurricanes are months and months away and today I'm dreaming on a winter storm with frozen P types, any type of frozen P Types but to actually see branches covered in snow, trees outlined in white...that would be a true delight!

Stay tuned.

Sweet Winter Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

change Colorado to Carolina ;)