Oh the Games We Play... Counting Down the Days.... April Turns to May and Then..........Hurricane Season. El Nino? No Nino? IYKYK....
Yes I love the Northern Lights, but unless they are lighting up my nighttime sky I'm not interested.
A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
I know it's been about 20 hot minutes, but we did a fast road trip down to Miami to greet a new member of the family. Touch base. Wander around with daughter in "Midtown" which is near Wynwood and just across the street from the Design District. Miami has become like Manhattan, every few blocks is a different area with it's own unique name. That said, it's 34 degrees in Raleigh this morning, sipping coffee trying to wake up with the fake little fireplace in my bedroom! Fell in love with her Golden Doodle which is way nicer than my mother's "chocolate poodle" that was known as the Devil Dog by some...
Roughly late May/June.
June 1st Hurricane Season...
See the pattern here???
There are 3 posts on X I want to highlight as they have ramifications down the tropical road in the not so distant future. First let's start with "the Rainy Season" which is another word for "Miami Monsoons" but we say "rainy season" so we don't scare the tourists or potential new home buyers a way. But to be fair, the change in the seasons has more to do with the addition of moisture into the South Florida enviroment. Rainy Season comes before Hurricane Season for a reason. And, often we can tell much about where we are going this particular hurricane season from the "Rainy Season" so pay attention. Yes, it normally starts in late May, though it can start earlier or later. There's a drought going on so this has short term implications. There are things to watch for and I'm hoping to be "home in Miami" in May to see family and enjoy the May Monsoons. As always I show this picture from Wikipedia that is hidden in the "Climate" Section.
Fronts? Are they still on the move?
High Pressure? Has it anchored itself in too close to S FL or is it missing in action?
Patterns of where the rain falls and how much falls?
Cold fronts still on the move can forewarn of an early Hurricane Season with generally weak tropical storms forming at the tail base of a stalled out frontal boundary. How far down the fronts are moving, can show where these tropical threats can form and traverse the state. Are we talking the Big Bend or are we talking down by Tampa and SW Florida?
High Pressure? If it's anchored in place and it's a "Dry May" there's a theory the high will steer storms towards South Florida. That's an old theory from Jim Lushine via NWS Miami and it's worth noting it's really in relative only for big hurricanes than come from the ESE moving WNW towards the edge of the High Pressure Zone. It does not cover weak but annoying tropical storms that form in the Gulf and criss cross the state.
Patterns are everything in short term weather forecasting and when I say short term, in this case, I mean the first half of the Hurricane Season. You can see Dabuh is already watching the patterns.
I love weather and more specifically hurricane history. How one year can show us clues as to the type of Hurricane Season we may be having this June that is coming too soon in 73 days. So far 2026 has been an interesting year. Winter was stronger in the Carolinas than it was in Colorado. My son in Colorado felt a bit like he was back home in Florida or maybe California. It rarely snowed out West though that made for great hiking weather, in shorts on a sunny day. I have a friend in Montana and there were no snowy scenes this Winter from Montana. A few scenes but not that build up of snow I am so used to...
An imbalance of weather across wide areas sets up vastly different parameters and makes forecasting what will be difficult. And, yet many will make predictions soon... forecasts.... and a forecast is a prediction based on scientific data. Often they are highly promoted in the news in April and then come June and July the conditions that were forecast are not always there.
Maybe it's kind of like the Market in a way. So much volatility and every time some report comes across the wire and is blasted across the world on websites, social media, WhatsApp people begin to panic as the market is down. Then it drops, it dives and then everyone breathes a sigh of relief as over the next few days the market makes up the loss and then some. Everyone is happy, birds are singing, butterflies dancing and suddenly something else happens and the ticker begins to drop.
It's been a lot like this March in Raleigh. We had a heat spell back in Feburary then fronts began to dip again and some people cried like they were losing money in the market because it was obviously to soon to plant their tomatoes and their dream day at the beach turned into a cold, windy, frozen experience. It was 79 degrees early in March and the next day the weather dove down to 31 degrees. Snow fell in Roxborro NC near the border with Virginia after the day before when it was close to 80 degrees and sunny. Clearly the snow melted fast.
El Nino has been predicted by many to come on strong with many comparing it to every wild nasty animal or creature they can think of as it's competitive out there on YouTube and X for attention.
As for me I have the windows wide open and I'm doing my Spring Cleaning and there's lots going on. Sat down with lunch and read through some discussion online.
Larry Cosgrove is one of my favorite meteorologists with a great sense of music and knowledge of global weather and weather history. I follow him online. Phil Klotzbach is coming out with his first forecast on April 9th I believe. Some are releasing there's late March or the 1st week in April. We will have much to talk about.
But this has been a record breaking year for "warmest temperatures" in normally cold places and coldest temperatures in places that are often warm.
Stay tuned....
lots of drama may be on the way!
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
4 PM
And once the storm is gone....
...the cold temperatures will funnel back in :)
I'm a funny person in that I have no probablem standing outside in a hurricane or at the beach with storm chaser friends, and yet I'd prefer to watch tornadoes from afar or in the movies. I have chased many lines of weather with water spouts in the Florida Keys and in Miami and there was that time in a cornfield in Iowa... but I'm a Hurricane girl ya know...
Always best to prepare. The sheer size of this system made it hard for meteorologists to pin point exactly which town would get a tornado or severe winds. As it all plays out in real time and when one area graabs the energy another area just gets rain and some wind. It's been dark all day, a heavy cloud cover made taking any pictures not worth the time so I just watched the clouds move (not easy as the cloud cover was so thick) and the rain fall heavy at an angle and we definitely need the rain. Won't call "all clear" until later tonight. Stay tuned, keep reading if you did not and remember 77 Days til Hurricane Season!
The track of the tornado that recently raged.
The track and time of year bugged me.
Trying to fall asleep last night .....
...it hit me I was thinking on the Tri State Tornado.
1925
The track below...
The disaster this week made me think on the 1925 TriState Tornado. Why? I know it was a year with some extremes and weather oddities including one of the worst tornado tragedies in American History and I'd add the world. I knew it was in March and I knew it impacted parts of Indiana. I wondered what sort of weather that year would create such a disastrous set up and obviously there was high heat meeting up with cold diving air. Very classic set up and yet the size and scope of it was off the charts. We are having very high heat this week, before a cool front breezes through Thursday evening.