Arthur Exits Stage Right.............. Finally. Lost Power This Morning ... from Arthur's Remnants Go Figure. Power Fixed. Bermuda High Reigns Over the Atlantic.

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State of the tropics today....

Friday, June 19th, 2026

A big ball of convection over Texas

And a new wave off Africa with lots of color

In between is one huge High Pressure.

Wave train staying low... 

...riding Southern rim of the High.

Fronts exit stage right off of America....

...sail high above the High in the N ATL

I know we have El Nino

But this is the HIGH playing defense.

It would not allow a goal to get thru...

...if it was playing Hockey.

NHC marked the spot with a X

Zero% Chance

X Arthur

For posterities sake I guess.

Earthnull shows a disturbance in the force...

...but nothing more.

Don't know what to tell you except have a great weekend! Enjoy the calm quiet period. At some point something will try and spin up and similar to other El Nino years the shear will blow the tops off of the tropical waves and it will be next to impossible to form. Some will get through, as that's the way things work in the Tropics even in Super El Nino years.

There's a huge clean up in the Gulf states that dealt with TS Arthur. Flooding was pervasive and costly across a huge area. Wind damage in some places will be costly to clean up and takes time. The Tornado that touched down near New Orleans will have a price tag. There were a few deaths attributed to the storm from flooding; driving into flooded areas especially at night are one of the most common causes of deaths during a storm be it a weak tropical storm such as Arthur or a Major Hurricane. Louisiana and Mississippi had over 20 inches of rain in some spots in a few days time. Some estimates in the most severe areas were closer to 30 inches. I have not spent much time looking through statistics, but they were from people I trust. In Raleigh most areas got a good two inches which is awesome, but it's only a start in trying to erase the drought. I'm happy.

On a personal level in Raleigh I was without electric today from 7 AM until close to Noon. Yes, from weather related to the remnants of Arthur. We had high winds last night and heavy rain, this morning we had strong thunderstorms. Supposedly something got hit by lightning and equipment was thrown offline and had to be replaced and restored. I don't know. I went to Target. I trusted we would get power back. A minor problem and nothing compared to what is going on in parts of the South. I was offline for a long time as it knocked the cable company off and for some reason TMobile barely had one bar for much of the day here. Life goes on... not a huge concern.  The parade for the Carolina Hurricanes is tomorrow in downtown Raleigh that is literally the biggest news in town.

So that's it. 

Here in Raleigh the bucket trucks...

..are for the signs for the parade tomorrow.

Along the Gulf they are working hard.

 Downtown Raleigh Alliance posted the pic!

There's talk the MJO may show up soon.

Well in the eventual near future.

Til then nothing on the horizone.

Sweet Trpoical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere whatever

Ps Irony.

I knew there was a movie Arthur.

So I looked for the theme song.

Had no idea this was the song.

Who knew?

I guess not me......

...don't think I saw the movie ever.

But it plays on Oldie Goldie channels

Christopher Cross

figures.

Yes There ARE Tropical Waves Swimming Hard Trying to Get Across the Atlantic ...Been Ignoring Them... So This Blog is For You. But... Today Is All About Arthur's Leftovers... June Too Soon For African Wave Train Right Now.

 

Note to my teenage self:  

Do not fall for it! Yes it's a cute little wave, it's looks happy and alert, and still has some nice colorful convection while it looks out towards where it wants to go and thinks it can hide from the shear by the entrance of the Caribbean and just slide under the Saharan Dust. Yes, I know it's so cute and you love African Waves. 

Rolling eyes........
..........okay it has a cute li'l pink heart.

I'll admit it wears it's heart on it's sleeve.

Ain't happening.

Focus elsewhere.... 

Just trust me on this....

but sure keep dreaming on tropical dreams.....

...just don't say I didn't warn ya

That was fun!

Thanks if you read this :)

Note to current self:

Watch out for severe weather ...

..& hopefully no nighttime tornadoes in NC today.

But please let it rain!!

BobbiStorm 

Remnants of Arthur Spawn a Confirmed Tornado in New Orleans. Tornado Warnings Up in the South All Morning. Midwest Tornado Weather Still Going Strong This Morning. NHC Gives X Arthur 10% Chances off Reformation in the Atlantic. Low Chances But A Chance. Stay Tuned. Busy Weather Day.

 

Our land loving Arthur is still causing trouble this morning as a Tornado Warning went up in New Orleans this morning and the NHC hoisted a yellow X over the Mississippi River with an arrow pointing to an area where Arthur may reform once back in the Atlantic. The models have suggested this and late yesterday the NHC actually mentioned it in their advisory for Arthur in the discussion. It's been on the table on social media and in discussion between weather people and officially now from the NHC.  It's an opening 10% bid in the tropical version of the game Jeopardy!  And, as always, we just have to watch, wait and see what evolves in reality.

I'll be honest when looking at the tilted structure of Invest 90L and what was stacked against it I felt it probably had a better had a chance as a Low off the Carolinas of getting a name then in BOC or the Gulf. But as I have said before I've seen garbage looking Invests get upgraded just before landfall in the BOC or as they struggle towards land in the Gulf. In this case, 90L preferred land over the warm, tropical waters of the Gulf go figure. The name is gone, the official floater is down but his remnants remain and any damages or God Forbid deaths attributed will be associated with the remnants of Arthur. 

While the NHC has pulled the plug on Arthur, for now, or let's say put it "on pause" we may not be done with it yet. While TS Arthur lacked a cohesive center it has delivered the forecasted punch of flooding, severe weather and tornadoes. Our night of tornadoes in Indiana hours ago has evolved into our morning of tornadoes in both the South and the Midwest. But nothing is more compelling as a tornado that is doing more damage on the ground in the New Orleans general region than many Category 1 Hurricanes would ever do. Lots of ironies here, but there's time to think on that later when Arthur has moved on from this part of the Mississippi River. Weather is weather. Severe Weather is severe weather. Tornadoes happen.

As I type this there is now a tornado warning for Picayune. I've said countless times, there is more to be feared from a messy, sheared minimal Tropical Storm at times than most Category 1 Hurricanes. The word Hurricanes makes people sit up and listen; prepare and pay attention and take precautions. Hurricanes often are tightly wound with a cohesive center and move along a specific path in the Cone. A barely there Tropical Storm or remnants of splashes tornado warnings across a wide area in a patchwork pattern that really has no pattern. And, after days of torrential rain there are areas flooded with stalled out cars that were taken by surprise of the actual intensity of the weather associated with Arthur. 

They may have pulled the floater...

...but the weather from X Arthur remains.

Gotta love Tropical Tidbits.....

..if you use them send them some cash love.

Takes a lot to run his incredible site.

Going wider .... 

Weather popping everywhere.

Dangerous Weather 

Speaking of dangerous weather...

...and the NHC yellow arrow.

Where ever X Arthur goes...

..trouble seems to follow.

In the Carolinas we are watching for rain.

We need rain.

We don't need tornadoes....

...but we definitely need rain!

Busy weather day today across the USA

Lots of pretty crayons being used here.
Much not very pretty weather.

Special emphasis on Tornado Warnings

Down South in Nola

Up North in MidWest Cities.

And this all moves East in some fashion.

Note the eastward trend here...

One of my favorite NC meteorologists.

Allan Huffman showing increased chance...

...for rain in Raleigh.

Someone could get 2-3 inches of rain he says.

Could indeed but who?

He adds in on X a chance of tornadoes.

Low but no one wants a tornado.

Nighttime Tornadoes happen in NC.

A map is shown above of the Nola Tornado!

Literally cut straight across the river...

sliced through the heart of New Orleans!!

Pay attention to weather warnings today

Not just wherever Arthur's remnants go..

...but to the North across a wide area.

Stay tuned.

Weather associated with the Remnants of Arthur

...may not be over from a tropical perspective.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Ps remember Bayous flood fast.

Heavy oak branches snap....

...pines go crack filling the air

with the smell of pine

Updated 45 MPH! TS Arthur Forms! A Look Into the Heart of the Tropical Matter and the Mind of the GFS & EURO Today. .. Huge Messy, Dangerous Weather Maker

Note the pressure dropped as well.

Generally dropping pressure....

...means winds are going up.

And so NHC put out a Special Advisory.

Extended Warnings as well!

Showing cone with extended TS Warnings.

Showing the Interactive Cone as I'm a fan.

You can zoom in, move it around.

Click on your area.

It's obviously gonna be that kind of day.....
...next advisory at 5 PM   

***

The horizontal blue line is TS Warnings.

Tropical Storm Force winds...

..can be expected.

Gusts higher as usual.

But again this is a rain event.

Flooding event.

Severe Weather event.

With winds of 40 MPH

Hovering around the coastline currently.

This graphic shows....

...barometric pressure is low....

Lower than everywhere else.

It's a marginal TS

Pressure is very high elsewhere.

1001 compared to 1018 in some places.

As often happens in El Nino years, early in June before a developing El Nino clamps down with steel jaws onto the Atlantic Basin tropical systems will form where they can ....where the atmopshere allows formation. Arthur is a good example of a storm forming close in from multiple factors near the coastline in an El Nino Year. In 1997 while the "Mother of All El Ninos" was in the headlines, the basin was very quiet. Danny formed near the coast in the Gulf from non tropical origin. 

(from Wikipedia)

It delivered a punch and continued on across the South intact and reformed in the Atlantic. 2026 is said to be "twinning"  1997 El Nino wise, so we will have to see if Arthur can manage that unusual trick! And, Danny was a Hurricane not a Tropical Storm, but still it's an interesting scenario that some models have tried to replicate recently.

Very minimal hurricane.

Time will tell.

Please keep reading if you have not read this already.

Lots of discussion on what models think...

..and the question of why....

Why is the EURO acting more like the GFS?

And my question is which AI models do you prefer?

Wild, wonderful times we live in...

...watching research assisted with AI

go places that were previous hard to imagine...

****

Areas forecast to have wind probabilities. 

Cities we associate with Hurricane Season.

Being it's on the Texas Coast....

...there are lots of webcams.

Galveston shows steady waves...

...camera obviously wet from rain.

Stormy. 

https://www.visitgalveston.com/webcams/seawall-beach-webcam/ 

Mike made a graphic this morning that really speaks to me, and so I am going with it and sharing my thoughts. Why do we look at the GFS and the EURO when there are so, so many others to mention? In a way they are two parts of this puzzle. They are like twins that shared a womb, but are not identical and yet they have the same gene pool. They look at the tropical mystery and come up with two possibile scenarios for the crime. We are in Prime Time for the 2026 Hurricane Season. It may not look like much, but we may not get much and this is close to land, close to populated areas and it's an important forecast. The NHC put up possible Tropical Storm strength in the discussion, and yet they have used the "regardless" word over and over to remind people reading it that regardless of getting a name this can and will deliver dangerous weather and flooding in an area where there is already flooding and that is the true meaning of  misery. 

Back to the Twins who are not identical, but have the same genes. 

The EURO has been strange this year so far. It's as if it's trying to show the GFS two can play at this game. Perhaps there's so much pressure with the new AI models breathing down it's back, but it's been acting like the GFS. It takes out the pink crayon coloring in the bottom half of Mississippi that dips it's big toe into the beautiful azure waters of the Gulf. On either side from SW to NE there are dabs of pink painted in to make a more balanced forecast. Suddenly the NHC aka Charlie Brown approaches the football and isn't sure if this is Lucy or Patty as it feels like a trick. And, yet it IS the EURO and for a long time it has been King. 

Next we have the ever popular GFS for those of us who like to use Xray Vision to look way down the tropical road. The GFS is the Queen of the Pink Crayon. (sounds like a song title, but I digress) The GFS draws a beautiful heart over the water near where the Sabine River meets the Gulf. The GFS rarely wants to hit Houston as much as New Orleans ...it definitely has a thing for Louisiana. It splashes fuchsia across Alabama just to show it's individualistic streak and includes the Florida Panhandle into the dangerous action where tornadoes are very likely to form and move their way inland across the coastal cities as they so often do. 

If I was a Mathematician and used my only my left brain I'd cut the difference, average it out and say the beautiful area in Mississippi is going to get slammed with weather as it usually does. Chasers race to Gulfport and Biloxi and those who know... know Hurricane House in Bay Saint Louis and wonder if Mother Nature is playing a trick on Josh. I'll give you weather my friend... but haha not a Hurricane, well not this time. Li'l mean and cunning but that would be kind of ironic. I mean how often does Mobile get hit by an eye? And, well no there is no eye so maybe this time? And, as always no matter where the center of a messy, early tropical system is in this part of the Gulf warnings go up for strong cells that produce tornadoes along the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

I have two parts of me, the right brain and the left brain and they are always debating. But what I really need is an EYE to be sure, or at least a cohesive, coherent center. But this is early June in an El Nino Year and this is probably the best we are going to get for a while. And the truth is .... REGARDLESS....this PTC One ...Wannabe Arthur is a huge weather maker. And, that is why we are all here. Yes, some of us like colorful crayons, but seriously we are here because we love, we study, we follow and chase weather in one way or the other. And, areas from Houston to the Florida Panhandle is where our attention is focused. Personally, I love New Iberia ...but that's me not PTC ONE... just saying.

So I leave you for now with this message.

Key Messages from the NHC

It's very "spot on" as AI loves to say....

...a phrase I know so well lol.

1. Flash Flooding in the colored in area.

2. Tropical Storm Force Winds 

3. Flooding possible inland.

Will see what we see later today.

For now... so many songs in my head.

But going with the one that means the most.

Be back later...

....once we have more definitive info

BobbiStorm

 

Update 11 PM... PTC One Forecast By NHC to Be TS Arthur ... Cone...Discussion and Thoughts on Track & Deadly Dangers ... Flooding & Tornado Dangers High. It's Been Raining along the Coast there for Day Ups the Ante for Serious Flooding.

PTC One is forecast to ride the coastline.

Sort of paralleling it....

...any variation in degrees can mean a lot.

When storms parralel the coastline just offshore it makes it harder to make an exact forecast. The basics are there in place, but degrees matter. The devil really IS in the details. When a storm does this off the SW Coast of Florida you can get a Charley sort of scenario when it suddenly hooks in and makes Landfall. This is NOT Charley. It's just an expample and happens in Florida and the Carolinas and sometimes Texas. Weak steering currents or a weak center and often shear there. Early in the Season and late in the Season.

There are the hardest types of storms to forecast in ways and yet some ways the easiest. The best of times and the worst of times. But until it really forms we don't know for sure we are merely making educated guesses based on modeling and satellite imagery and tomorrow there will be Recon. And the NHC is very good at this... I might even say damn good at this. But again a storm riding the coastline... is not easy to nail down exactly. The NHC still has it at TS status but they pushed back the forecast a bit. 

There's Earthnull....

...there's what might be the center.

Still has ways to go...

There's a scenario for a fast movement and one for a slow movement. I'm just going to watch tonight as I did today and probably tomorrow. Okay, definitely tomorrow. I was going to update this afternoon, but there was really nothing new to say. It's a watch and wait set up. It's tedious and it's compelling. Local governments in the path have time to get plans into action ... in case....worse case scenario happens.

Signing off now.............   will see what we see in the morning.

It's all about perspective. If you are nowhere near this storm you are totally not interested. If you are a student of tropical meteorology, a researcher, tracker or storm chaser you are interested. There's lowering pressures at the surface, and yes they are still high but they are way lower than other areas. 

This is basically a "tropical disturbance" currently... if pressures keep falling, if it gets out over the water, if the models verify that they are using we will have something more cohesive tomorrow. 

Will see tomorrow. We are currently at Red Alert level. That's a personal joke for me, someone gets it. Makes me laugh. It's good to laugh. Eventually it should move over water. Only time will tell.

Sweetest Tropical Dreams.

If you didn't read, please keep reading.

My F key has a problem.

It's erratic. Off and on.

I may have to put this laptop down...

... or fix it or get a new one.

Time will tell :)

****

Details above.

PTC One

Official Cone.

Going to preface all this with the reminder that this could become a Tropical Depression or even become TS Arthur, though mostly we are still in the realm of potential vs actuality. Either way, the impacts will be the same and those being torrential rain leading to dangerous flooding issues in some places, high winds and the danger of severe weather. When we say dangerous I mean they could turn deadly. Hopefully not, but the area geographically it is traversing are filled with bayous, swamps and dangers not apparent to newbies or tourists. It's hard to explain how in this neck of the world flooding can happen fast and put someone who is unaware of that into life threatening dangers.  Even for locals, dangers occur and accidents happen. I'd say this is definitely "tropical" in that it's origin is one part remnants of Cristina from the EPAC along with other ingredients and it is in the tropics and it is behaving in a tropical way bu it has not developed a real, solid center. Should and when this occurs it will be TD1 or TS Arthur. Note that the advisory discussion below shows it attaining tropical storm starus in 24 hours. This is the perfect example of why we have the Potential Cyclone category as storms often form close in along the coastline here and can intensify fast and the normal time parameters do not apply here vs  a long tracking tropical wave with potential far out in the distant Atlantic. 

You can see the spin.

It's across a broad area.

Waiting for a defined center.

Still a murky messy with spin...

...and strong convection.

Biggest problem?

We already have heavy rain in this area...

...lingering rain in this area.

Before the stronger, dangerous storms arrive.

Where does it go from here?

I'll talk on that this afternoon.

Today is a day to watch it evolve in real time.

To see how it's development....

...aligns with modeling.

And making sure the warning is out!

Mike posted this wisely so with time stamps.

Enlargement of the area in prime danger.

Stay tuned....

....this is forecast to be our 1st named storm.

Arthur.

Time will tell...

I'll update later this afternoon.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Bobbistorm

Who knew Arthur could be a cowboy?

That's choosing Texas.......