Is the Atlantic Waking Up? 50% in the MDR … African Wave a Candidate To Be a Long Tracker... How Close Does It Get to the East Coast?

11 AM

This is the image from NHC that woke everyone up.

Google Deepmind model above...

.... made many jittery.

Note many just saw this...

...those who went thru Andrew or Hugo

True and Irma as well.

Doubters and deniers only saw this above.

Which one are you?

Guessing you are the 1st
as you are reading my blog.

Or you just really, really like me ;)

I really don't have anything else to add other than we will wait and see what the next Google Deepmind throws at us and what the other models do and in my case I really only care on models when the system is visible and we can see a real center and then I trust the models more. But, Google Deepmind has had it's day so we pay attention.

Oh and one last request. Can the NHC please pull the plug on Lala I am so done with it. And, as your situation allows remember there are charities on the ground trying to help that are reliable so give as you can please and help.

The rest of the blog was written while in bed, under the covers enjoying a lazy Sunday morning while scrolling through my phone as weather people I respect greatly suddenly were posting again on the Atlantic Basin. Enjoy it. Have an awesome Sunday. I most likely will update later and give some thoughts on lessons learned from Andrew as everyone is talking on Andrew online today.

9AM Sunday Morning

Today is a lazy Sunday Morning and yet my mind is busy scrolling, thinking on the current synoptic pattern and models that have helped elevate our new African Wave to 50% 🍑 chances of development!

9 days til September 1st!

Everyone wants to know what Deepmind model is thinking. I’m thinking I should get up and get some coffee! But it’s a morning to go with the flow and savor gid comments and thoughts. 

I’ll update the blog later today with pics and models. 

The real question today is does this new African Wave have that special survivor gene that Andrew and Florence had to make it across the Atlantic….

Check back later but for now I’m delightfully lazy this morning….

sweet pumpkin spice latte dreams

or frappes as it's still fairly warm outside

 BobbiStorm

My always memory after Andrew..

... musically as it played nonstop

especially or charity benefits 

2 Yellow Areas in Atlantic None Coming To USA... Maybe Portugal Needs to Pay Attn! EL Nino Years 2015 and 1993 Hurricane History. Remember Joaquin Did Not Make Landall in Carolinas and Yet People Died Historic Flooding. Faro Sank People Died.

There's not much to talk about today. There are two yellow, lemon circles in the Atlatnic that the NHC put up and suddenly I want to go back to the Nothing to Talk about screen.  The one on the right is not our problem. I'm not sure it's anyone's problem. We will see soon enough. Subtropical possibilities. The one on the left is a possible problem in subtle ways. But they are the typical weird systems that pop out out in the Atlantic in El Nino Years. Really enough said on that. 

Something Mike said the other day and we have spoken on it over time and it's true. An El Nino Year that is strong such as this one is .......does not mean "nothing to worry on" it means less hurricanes but not less weather problems. Let's go back to 2015, an El Nino Year nowhere near as strong as this one but still an example. 

This was 2015.

A long season with not many storms.

Began with Anna.

A tropical storm that did the Carolinas.

Sort of the Myrtle Beach Crawl.

Google it, that's a thing here.

Then many Atlantic squiggly tracks.

Then in October Joaquin 

People thought "oh no Ana but a Hurricane"

Early NHC Cone or Joaquin.

But....that did not verify.

A strange set up evolved.

A fire hose set up.

A popular phrase that year.

It developed over South Carolina.

SC did not get Joaquin....

But DID get horrible flooding.

Seriously you could not win or losing..

...or however that saying goes.

Actually SC, NC & VA got heavy rains.

The Cones went on showing Landfall 

And the historic rain went on and on and on.

Good video below, worth watching.

Note when you watch....wild rescues.

SC, NC and VA DID get historic rain & flooding.

Joaquin never made landall in USA.

It took out a ship caught in the erratic track.

33 people on the container ship died at sea.

And yet Joaquin never made Landfall in USA

...none of the early cones verified.

And yet it was a deadly in it's way.

It did make it across the pond to Portugal tho...

21 people died in SC and NC but no Landfall.

The actual track below

El Nino Year storms love Portugal

Another odd El Nino Year.

1993

I had to Google what year Groundhog Day was...

This was not one of my favorite movies.

I mean how many times can you see the same scene?

My brother was a huge Bill Murray fan.
I think he watched that Caddyshack 20 times..

I did like Bill Murray 

... but not all his movies.

Long time ago ...

What's your favorite Bill Murray movie?

Anyway...........

So Google says Groundhog day was 1993.

And I checked.... it was an El Nino!

Not like this El Nino but an El Nino.

See season tracks out in the Atlantic?

Here we are in late August 2026

So this is totally normal I supposed.

Seems I can't complain ....

...they keep doing the Nada chart..

It is true....

...sometimes in "quiet" El Nino years...

there's flooding and deaths.

there were tornadoes in Delaware last night

There's always weather somewhere.

Time will tell what we actually see in a week or so.

MJO  and models are say things spark up a bit.

Time will tell indeed.

Have a good weekend!

BobbiStorm

I'll be honest I never liked this so much....
....my brother loved this movie.
Definitely feels like Groundhog Day this year.

African Wave Over Africa Still.........Making Models Go Crazy. People From FL to Carolinas Be Model Watching. NHC Says NADA for 7 Days...

 

Officially.........there's nothing to see.

A front everyone's waiting for in the Carolinas.

Waves moving off of Africa.

NHC nada for 7 days.

So Mike on the models this morning.

Love listening to Mike in the morning.

Old addiction like coffee :)

Everyone is talking on the models. "Did you see the models" is the most asked question of the morning and that is because the models (all of them) have jumped on top of the wave that will depart Africa in several days ... early next week and yet here we are in 2026 debating a wave that has not rolled off of Africa even yet. And, yea I'll admit we are hungry for something to track and chasers are hungry to chase in this basin and trust me the Bahamas and Bermuda should definitely be watching IF models are correct. So let's look at that African Wave.

Some models do toy with the 1st wave some.

but THE WAVE is still way over Africa.

Now let's look at the long term reliable maps.

This is thru August 27th....

The front is stuck across the Carolinas.

Rainy weekend.

Works for me!!

Yay!

Temps won't flirt with 100 degree mark for a change.

The models that are very long term and the various AI versions of the models that are very long term are showing one or two storms moving along the regular route. Then.....the question is whether or not a cold front will come down, grab it and run with it out to sea as if it's looking to make a touchdown! Not a landfall, a touchdown. I'm being silly while waiting for the Nespresso to kick in this morning. But, seriously we are getting closer to September, so by the time the wave that is STILL over Africa is in our neck of the woods, the weather patterns may change and many models see sweeping fronts in our future possibly sweeping away, batting away any storm that forms.

That said...........it's hot as hell in the Carolinas and the fronts are stalling and there is nothing to talk about other than models conjecture that we could have a hurricane off the coast of the Carolinas (and Florida) way down the line. I'm going to show this graphic again........

We are back on this road like an old country song.

What rolls off of Africa, can get periously close.

Make people in Miami and Charleston worry.

Because that's something we do.

Because Andrew. Because Hugo.

We never forget.

I am breathing better today.

Because DaBuh is back at his art and music.

So using his line theme....this is my bottom line......IF the models are correct and IF the wave has a low pressure areas attached or even a hint of spin, then everyone from the Bahamas to Bermuda needs to pay close attention. And, those in Florida where it's been ominously hot hell, dry often with fires blazing and searing heat day after day breaking records will know if they grew up around Old Timers that usually means the High is an issue and if a wave gets caught, trapped under a high than trouble happens. And, people in North Carolina and everywhere in between will be watching because the front that can grab it and take it out to sea, can also push it towards landfall somewhere and bring a drought breaking rain event so stay tuned.

September Remember.... 

Besos BobbiStorm

:)

Ps 

will add as we get closer to September....

...the earth trembles and shakes

not because Florida gets earthquakes...

...but because the wave train picks up

and pulls WNW 

and all eyes are on the tropics.

Especially in El Nino years

because...

latent energy is a thing

and often 1 bad hurricane makes landfall.

Bad = Major

So don't eat all the Twinkies

pay attention, be aware

and have an awesome day

Models Develop Next Set of Waves Off Africa. GFS Sees Several Storms. EURO Sees 1. Lots of Models. Lots of Waves. Game Is NOT Over!

 

This is new.
We now have an area in the Atlantic
...where development is favorable.

Or at least suggested by NOAA 
to be a little bit favorable.

It's a start. All beginnings need a start and this is the time of year when usually waves begin to actually connect and move forth rather than sputtering out dead in the water. Talk on the street is that this is the wave over Africa that has the best chance to develop. Some models develop both waves, of course, but others only take this one seriously. The long range models we have been watching are getting closer to medium range models and so we take them a bit more seriously.

It is a big wave.
IR is dramatic.

WV shows us how much moisture it really has...

That's a whole lotta moisture.
The test will be after it dives into the water.

We are definitely watching.

This is the EURO.

I like to show the EURO first.

This would be typical for a solid El Nino Year.

Turns fast, sweeps up into the Atlantic.

Sunday the GFS develops the lead wave.

That's the 1st good wave.

On the 27th (Thurday) it develops the 2nd one.

Note out of site closer in...
...the GFS has the lead wave off the E Coast.

Curving away, but bringing nice waves.

Many see this as a threat to New England.

others in NC see this as a threat to NC

Somewhere someone sees this as a threat to Bermuda.

(they probably have a cruise planned)

And that is how we get here...on Sept 3rd.

We have a series of waves that pull further North than the last, move up into the Atlantic a bit more and seem scheduled for recurvature closer in to the USA.  And IF these waves developed some we still have to watch as storms that take a track WNW more N of WNW that take them up and OVER the Islands put them in a position where they can make landfall close in IF the high suddenly pushes them West or a forecast cold front fizzles and that's how we got Andrew. And, Florence was a totally different storm from most and yet she made landfall in the Carolinas taking a track at a higher latitude where that year the water was very warm and provided fuel for her to fight off shear. 

Oh look there was Andrew.

Expected to be a Carolina storm probably.

Because of a strong cold front....

...that wasn't so strong and fizzled.

Hurricane Florence 2018

Many said she'd never make it across.

No way, fizzle from shear.

I said she would because it was obvious

When a storm fights off shear over and over....

....and keeps on going.

Those are the ones - you have to watch.

So stay aware, stay prepared.

And have an awesome day!

Time will tell...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere whatever.

A song from the Summer of 2018

(ps Florida Georgia Line are back now... )

I knew I hadn't written a blog in a few days, but didn't realize it was so long. Well, long for me,  but here I am trying to find something to talk on that is more than just talk. Images from Lala have been feeding in and the immensity of their tragedy is apparent. When water runs downhill carrying rocks made from cooled lava on a slick river bed or even an stream bed that is usually empty the water runs fast, very fast and carries boulders with it and well we saw this in Helene in North Carolina. Each hurricane is different, each story is different and yet they all have their commonalities.

Elevation + Rain = Pain.
It's all about terrain.

Hawaii Drama......... Lala Hits the Mtns of Hawaii .... No Landfall But Definitely Did Hawaii. NHC Says Nada for 7 Days in Atlantic!

Lala did become a hurricane. She did not make "landfall" tho she definitely "hit Hawaii' in multiple ways. And, I'll add Hawaii hit her hard. Her signature was definitely disrupted or rather rearranged as she came up against an island that is a mountain peak that is over 13,000 feet high and lava formed landscape where water races down the river beds fast the way water races downhill fast as it did in Helene. Different geologically and less trees seem to have fallen though at some point I stopped watching videos. A very close "almost" landfall, and yet as expected the center of the eye, the eye mostly stayed off land as the eyewall inched inland. Touching, the way guys would say the car had to "kiss" the curb before they were done parking. 

Yeah... looked better I'm sure before ...

Literally hits a wall.

Flash Flooding concerns.

The NHC pulled the plug on the Wave Train..

...that the models loved so much.

Knew that wasn't verifying.

I said, numerous times, the models have been wonky and developing each new wave off Africa the way they developed the last wave. You can see below where the SAL is and where the remnants of 92L and 94L are and giving special kudos to 92L as it's moisture is still very noticable. I didn't believe 92L would develop in any way, yet I did believe it could make it into the Islands as a wave. You can't have it both ways. IF a wave begins to develop, it will want to pull more to the North and if it doesn't, it just keeps going westbound. The islands really needed rain so this was a blessing. Where it goes next, I don't know. Maybe it rains itself out or it finds a friendlier enviroment. As for 94L no that did not go well, infact I knew the whole time 92L was going to go further than 94L ever would based on satellite imagery and knowing hurricane history. I am not sure why the models, the many models, were so bad and it became apparent with the 3rd Wave at least that they were on replay every, single time. 

Below you can see X92L

You can see a dangling front.

And old wave as well.

Sticking with the close in concept personally.

The long range GFS does take a stab at the end of August as being a time when a few African waves have a better chance and one goes into stealth mode in the Caribbean (close to where X92L is now) and then comes to life very close in near Florida, North of say PR and again this is very, very long range modeling. Do I believe it? Yes, no and maybe. What we look at long range modeling for is not specifics, but a trend and a pattern. And, that's the only thing I really look to the very, very long range GFS. But it's something.

Then it tries and develop one behind it.

But it doesn't try and develop them in the MDR

And for that reason.... this may verify more..

..than the ones that were running before.

To be fair the EURO was more...

...into them then the GFS go figure.

2026 funny year.

Old front draped, dead in the water ...

...that can spin things up close in.

small support, but NHC not interested.

New wave off of Africa.

Not much to see.

Back to Lala.

It's snowing at 13,000 feet high.

Snow and a hurricane.

And a volcano.......

Lala is really a lesson in geology and geography, two subjects I love almost as much as meteorology and they are all entwined together in Earth Science. Add in oceanography to explain the colder currents out there in the tropics near Hawaii. I had been wondering early on, if this would be a year like 1992 when Iniki made a run for the roses in Hawaii with the help of an El Nino. With 2026 being a Super El Nino I figured Hawaii had a chance for a close encounter of the hurricane kind. Smiling, personal joke.

Anyway... I took a walk today as it was hot, but not as unbearable as it will be later this week. I know the heat does have an expiration date on it in the Carolinas, but I really wish it would make a fast exit and let us move on with Fall. I wanna wear my leggings with boots that look cute with my little skirts and live in my big black Victoria's Secret hoodie and sip Pumpkin Spice Latte which is one step closer to my favorite Cream Brulee Latte and light lots of candles around the house that smell of burnt leaves, tobacco, cedar, whatever I buy when I go on a Fall Shopping Spree soon! 

Honestly I am so over Summer. Growing up in Florida I had all the Summer I ever needed. That said ther's a Barnes and Noble opening up in Midtown Miami near my daughter in late October, so I do see a trip to Miami in my future and yes in love with her Goldendoodle. By the way, almost all the girls there have them and that's good cause they are so cute!!  It's a very cute Barbie like world. Well as long as we don't get hit by a hurricane back home in Miami this year so keep praying they go somewhere else and keep in mind if you know where I live you know where to send them. Would really, really love to chase a strong Tropical Storm at Wrightsville Beach this year ...not on a weekend. If I had my wishes come true.......those are some of them. A tropical storm chase in NC by the beach, a trip to Miami to see my kids, my family and hang out with Nala the Mini Goldendoodle and other things I am not saying ... 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Miami in the right spot...

...can be a Barbie World sometimes.

Silly mood tonight....

enjoy!

Lala Likely to be a Hurricane by Hawaii ...either way Hawaii Getting Storm Impacts Atlantic Wave Train ... Not Bad for Super El Nino Year but NADA Happening Soon.

 

I'm going to pretend this is 2004 or 2014 and just write a bit. This is the wave train that many tried to convince us would never happen. It's a healthy wave train, considering there's still SAL and there's shear there and more than shear there and sher that the waves are heading into the Canary Current has been a bit wonky....and yet they are sailing West. 

Lead wave aka 92L is way healthier than the NHC would have you believe, because it did not intensify according to plans and models that made no sense and so it was downgraded fast and they upgraded 94L just as fast. Everyone was all excited about 92L originally and it had beautiful spin. Then 94L came and the models jumped all over it like a sexy girl the first day at High School in a mini skirt. But in truth it's  a copy of 92L and I don't think either are anything to really talk about ....but it's 2026 and we don't have a lot to talk about so .... here I am trying to find  something to talk about. Oh, and there's a new wave behind 92L and 94L so it's like twins, triplets....     #sendhelp

They pulled the plug on 92L and yet...

...it looks best to me.

Oh look.........there's a new wave.

Moving on...

Mimic......

In truth thats a lot of moisture all things being equal.

NHC is pretending 92L doesn't exist.

Okay, whatever.

Moving on to the Pacific

Did I mention it I was 98 degrees in Raleigh today.

Not feels like but for real 98.

I do not want to know about "feels like" 

everyone needs to "just stop" with the 

FEELS LIKE 119

Enough.

1. Note bulk of moisture is to the South.

2. The center could make landfall.

3. Jury is still out ...will see tomorrow.

Zoom Earth is so awesome

Here...I'll zoom in for you.

TWC went from direct hit landfall on the big Island

to

Strong impacts even IF they don't get a direct landfall.

to it could get a landfall... maybe

to 

Lala likely to be a Hurricane.

Either way they are getting hurricane weather...

...so it's a big deal.

I'd be....excited.

;)

So have a good weekend!

We will see what we see.

Not much to really write about....

...other than Lala

It's a decent wave train for an El Nino Year

Gotta go

Have an awesome weekend!!

Sweet Dreams of whatever weather you want!

BobbiStorm

Great song ;) did not edit or spell check

gotta go ....late for a special date