A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, September 18, 2026
2 PM Invest 99L at RED 70% Atlantic May Become Fay ... Late September Shows High Increase Near Florida. Coastal Low Cruiser in Late September a Maybe. Watching 9/25 Maybe Something Spins Close In?
Developing quickly it seems....
...may get the Fay name.
that's 70% in the 2 day too...
Zoom Earth below....
...who had that on their Bingo Card?
Again I've said this area gets busy in El Nino years.
seems we have a spinner...
...will update later today
a definite maybe Fay!
***
Modern Art via the NHC
Subtropicals and areas by the Azores..
..in El Nino years always possible.
Can we use the name Fay there?
or is Fay a Florida storm?
Wondering.
Currently Florida has a lotta rain.
Kids called. Brother called.
Pictures with of flooding....
People in FLL posting on X
Flooding .... ULL nearby
Funneling Rain Storms
Dirty side of ULL never fun.
But that's not a named storm today.
Just an ULL parked nearby, spinning.
Tho Upper Level Lows can help spin happen tho.
Especially in El Nino years when waves are weak.
Things develop close in ...
..especially with dangling cold fronts over hot water.
So this is the 7 day Rain Forecast.
That's a whole lotta rain.
So keep that in mind while looking at models.
Models that hint at development close in.
Keeping mind predictions for heavy rains there.
Yes it's the GFS but date is 9/30/26 Staying in September today.
How does this happen? Well at first we see something over Cuba tries to close off into a low. It moves up towards Florida keeping it weak. Once back over the Gulfstream which is hot it builds into a closed Low that moves up towards the OBX area. Not saying landfall is expected here but do think it's possible to have something offshore. I'm saying it's possible and more probable than close in. This same run showed a Low near the islands off Africa and a day or so out poof it was gone. That's probably, in line with the reality of 2026 that shows ever Azore Lows and possible Subtropicals couldn't even get spinning. Close in has more of a chance. That also still goes for the Gulf where old dangling cold fronts linger too long over tropical waters that are crazy hot and basically untapped and that's energy that will (should anything from want to release that pent up energy) be a problem.
In truth there is nothing expected, but in El Nino years watch close in for unexpected things to pop up and I'll add especially late in the season when the water is crazy hot. A strong coldfront is forecast to get down past Tampa and I'm very skeptical of that. A stationary front maybe. A strong cold front? In Miami we don't even wish on cold fronts until late October and if we get lucky they show up in time for Halloween. But who knows, this has been a crazy year and yes I have said "crazy" multiple times for multiple reasons.
Watching the time frame from 9/25 on...
...for something to pop up perhaps.
pop up perhaps
say that 3x
:)
Have a good weekend!
I'll update Sunday... football Sunday
Sweet Dreams...
... may whatever you dream for come true!
BobbiStorm
Personally I'm dreaming on cooler weather.
But would love "something" off the NC coast...
...to go watch waves and sea foarm
and feel the wind.
Similar to Erin last year maybe.
Time will tell.
Enjoy the song.
My Seattle son moved to Colorado.
They go to concerts at Red Rocks
Won't lie it's stunning and the sky....
..its so wild in Colorado.
Enjoy.
I "need" to go see them soon.
Later than sooner but who knows. I stay out here a lot but...
...when I go it's Gypsy like fast!
Since I said "crazy" so many times.
Will play the most beautiful crazy song.
Love this song. Love the movie.
Oldie but won 7 Oscars...
Since you might still be here.
Crazy was written by Willie Nelson and sung in 1961 by Patsy Cline. It played forever and ever and ever on Country Radio and is still playing today. As a kid growing up in an area called "Little Georgia" in Miami every mother had Country Music playing on the radio and as you walked through the backyard you'd hear Patsy Cline singing some song, long after she was gone tragically in a plane crash. If you ever watched the movie you would know that. A lot in that movie resonated with me for various reasons. That movie was made in 1981 twenty years after Willie wrote it for Patsy. It's still a classic for any young Country crooner to sing as it's as relevant today for many as it was in 1961 when Willie wrote it. Think on that a bit. I really was born Country or Southern in the Coastal South to a family that had been there for generations ... and yes there is a difference between the parts of the South and what many think of as "Country" but that's not important here on my Weather Blog ....what IS important is that I do believe one big storm will from...where I can't tell you but I'd sure watch close in around September 25th on .... where it goes no one knows as it has not formed yet. Also ignore any typos please, though I do so love living in the Carolinas I am not in love with allergy season here in the Autumn but.... I do so love watching the leaves turn I just don't care for the weeds!
Maybe Something Last Week in September. What Something Is I Can't Say Yet. NHC Has a Slow Burner Orange Simmering on It's Main Page. Or Maybe They Thought It Was a Pumpkin? Hmnnn. Cooler Weather in Carolinas Today. Yay! CAG May Wake Up.
Let's start here.... ...it's a very good place to start.
Orange circles come and go, but this is a set up for the rest of the month and it's a NOAA product. It says "watch off the coast of Africa" and off the Southeast Coast. Note also there's a stalled out stationary front off the coast through Bahamas and the next "front" should also stall out somewhere round here so it's an area to watch as per the NHC.
Official Orange circle from NHC
Honestly I am not even going here.
It's actually Invest 98L
Honestly there is nothing threatening, and even blobs are having problems getting going. But NHC watching Invest 98L Models below show where it might go ...should it try and develop and it's not anyone. So we are just gonna let it sit a bit longer.
yeah maybe up into the Atlantic someday....
...highest estimates show a maybe tropical storm.
Maps show stalled out stationary troughs.
We are waiting to see real weather.
The truth is there is a lotta speculation on the CAG starting up this next week as we move towards September. I'm not sold on some of the scenarios and so waiting til tomorrow to see what they show again to see some consistency and something I can really believe in. The image below is for October 1st and shows "stuff" out there and we have had nonstop possible systoms that evaporate the next day or two and we go back to nothing. I don't want to put up "stuff" here that is just hype. But what I will do is I'll post a video from my friend Mitch talking on the CAG as many very reliable meteorologists do believe the CAG will become a player that could deliver some tropical energy towards the Gulf Coast. I'll add when he says this could escalate quickly is because the water is untapped and hot as Hades in the Gulf and should something with a center get up into that region it could escalate quickly. Keyword "could" but he explains it well and he's a good guy who does a great job with weather and this is a fairly short video so enjoy.
What I will say is this is the EURO below.
October 1st!
Convection and possibilities.
Either it's dreaming..... ...or well we will see.
AI spits out models so fast it's like a kid with the hiccups.
I like AI models.
I just have not seen anything I can pass along ...
40% Orange Chances in the Middle of the Atlantic. Otherwise Tropics Quiet.
Tropics quiet. Well mostly quiet! Ok…. in the Atlantic Basin they are fairly quiet. There’s a 40% orange circle out in the middle of the Atlantic East of Bermuda that has a brief shot of stealing the name Fay. This is a candidate for subtropical or tropical in a favored area in strong El Niño years.
Waves run out of steam & those that survive get shredded by El Niño induced shear. That’s like shear on steroids! There’s a strong early season front that in theory would grab it and play with it. Behind the front there is high dry air so it’s in a safe spot now but down the road it gets sketchy for development. Being honest. There’s always that 1% chance something unusual happens in àn El Niño year.
Slim pickens this year. Long range models be flirting with something forming in the CAG. Some dream scenario where a list area of convection tries to hide from the Pacific & sneaks up into BOC. Sometimes in this set up … when enhanced by the MJO has a chance to try and grab on to a dipping early season front and catch a ride up towards Florida. That’s a general plot line for a screenplay that has not been written yet as we move closer to August. Based on history more than modeling.
Floyd in I think 1987 was that sort of weak Florida bound storm in a slow hurricane season. It aimed for the Keys and impacted Miami. Palm fronds fell down. Traffic signals swayed in the tropical breeze. Google it.
I’m kind of on vacation currently….
Doing a quick short catch up on the tropics as the NHC did give the area in the Atlantic the orange 🍊 chances.
I’ll add a song & update later
Just saying “hi” & “see ya later”
BobbiStorm relaxing in slightly cooler weather ànd lower humidity.
911 Thoughts on Hurricane Erin in the Atlantic Near NY. Thoughts on 911. Memories, My Memories. Tropics Quiet But There's a Window Maybe... More on that Monday Maybe.
This is the Hurricane that was up near the East Coast on the day of 911. It's integrally involved with my first 911 memories in that I was online discussing hurricane season and specifically Hurricane Erin. I found this on facebook and the reason I am posting it is that the satellite images began to show the narrow plume of smoke that was rising in NYC from the Twin Towers.
It was a day like any day in September, discussing the tropics with a friend who suddenly stopped responding. I waited longer than usual when they would run off somewhere and whenthey showed back up Instant Message on AOL they simply typed "turn on news" or some version of that in a few words. I switched on the news. Oh........ And, it was an "oh" as in "what the heck?" and then two of my older kids came into the room asking if I saw what happened. They stood there frozen in place by the door staring at the news. We all stared.
One son argued with his sister that it "could be an accident" and my daughter who had just gotten back from a year in Israel program argued back how bombs go off on buses in the morning this is exactly the timing of a terrorist attack. He's more of a dreamer, she's more of a realist. They both are artists, so if you have ever lived with an artist that may mean something to you. Both their grandmother's were artists. Artists see things visually and it's hard sometimes for realistic gut assessments to begin working. The daughter had gotten off a bus in Israel a stop before it blew up, she wasn't planning on getting off but did probably something caught her eye and she was not on the bus when it blew up. Then, the second plane went into the other Tower and she snapped "you still think it's an accident" at her brother and I just sat there near the computer, staring at the TV and staring at the two of them. My daughter said "see, they do this they blow up one bomb and then 10 minutes or so another bomb goes off to catch the 1st responders"and wasn't happy being reminded on her year in Israel as there were many bombs blowing up buses that year. I looked back at the TV and thought "oh, yeah this is not good" really we were all numb and in shock. Simplistically said we were all in shock.We all were numb as really none of us in our lifetime had seen anything to compare to the scope of this terrorist attack on American soil in various venues with planes falling out of the sky, crashing into buildings filled with people dying I real time as we watched.
I was late for my job at the library. The drop out, artsy, daughter had a part time gig at Starbucks in the Mall. The weird part was no one knew what to do or what not to do. Many just called in sick. Sick to their stomach I'll add. Divorced, single mother needs to work it's not even an issue and at some point I went to the library where most of the staff was in the kitchen staring at the news. There was a lot of "staring" that day. I had to go on the Refrence Desk, that was my job and even though the library was somewhat empty I stood there. We didn't have Apps on our phones to stream news. When it was quiet I ran across the library (walked really fast) peeked into the kitchen at the screen and could not figure out what happened. There was smoke everywhere, like a huge dust storm in the desert has descended on Manhattan. They were debating what happened. It was hard to imagine the truth. The Reference Desk was quiet, only a few people nearby on computers and obviously most people got messages on their phones and had left the library. I got bits and pieces of news. When I got back into the kitchen again the answer was that the "smoke" that looked like dust was because a Tower fell. Not sure what seemed more unreal, a plane flying into one of the Towers or that the Tower that was hit by the 1st plane fell into pieces with people inside. Then the 2nd Tower fell when I was in there ...while the Library Director debated what to do as some wanted to leave and go home.
It never occurred to me, but panic had settled in and many people were afraid the library being a "government building" could be a target. Jagged, nervous and anxious people went into survival mode. I had an appointment I didn't want to go to near the library. I grabbed my bag, went to the appointment. Everyone there was seated in the lobby staring at a TV while the news tried to provide real time inormation as everything was developing in real time. There was a third plane, something about the Pentagon, something about a plane in Pennsylvania. Events were streaming in a kaleidoscope fashion as pieces of infromation were competing for attention in an array of smoke, dust and images of people who had jumped out of the tower and endless replays of the planes crashing into the Tower and the Towers falling and always people running.
I was called into my appointment and the girl there began filling out forms; she was literally moving in slow motion as we all tried to act as if everything was normal and yet nothing was normal. About 5 minutes in she got a phone call they were closing up for the day as it was a government building and they were afraid of an attack. This really seemed not logical, but it was totally fine with me as I was in a rush to get back to the library and watch whatever news I could. I don't think we closed early. I can't remember. We were all in shock.
At some point I went home. My little kids came home and we had to talk on what had happened. Another daughter had her plane cancelled she was "stuck" in Miami and stories began showing up online of a friend worried on her grandmother whose apartment was very close to the World Trader Center. More visuals of people walking back to Brooklyn across the Iconic Brooklyn Bridge. People I know in Crown Heights in apartments were on their roof (something ppl in Brooklyn do) watching smoke from "the City" as people in Brooklyn call Manhattan.
Crazy memories all competing in my head, yet typing it out here it's interesting what I remember and what I do not. Stores in Aventura Mall were closing (everyone was afraid what would happen next and where) and my daughter said she was closing down the Starbucks and coming home. No one was at the Mall the manager called in "sick" and people wanted to go home to safety. I asked her if she "could do that" she said the Mall is closing I'm doing it. She never got in trouble for making that call. The Mall closed early.
It's hard to explain to young kids what it was really like in real time. Images shown resemble a trailer for a disaster movie and as everyone knows what happened (more or less) there's no sense of the shock that the rest of us felt who watched in real time not sure where this was going to go and when or how it would end as we lived it in real time, moment by moment, minute by minute, image by image.
Odd postcript to this is that when they found out the terrorists had been in Broward County close to North Miami Beach, agents came into our City library to check the records we had of people who had used the computers. The reality that some could have been in our library using the computers was hard to wrap our heads around. In those days people went to the library to use computers as not everyone had one and other times they didn't want the rest of the family seeing what they were doing on the computer.
Since then I have met people who were some of those people who walked across the bridge back to Brooklyn. I've met people who had family and friends die. I watched kids in the library going online to sign up to join the Army, the Navy or just get information on how to do so. It was all surreal. I've heard stories. This was my story or the part of it I remember today. I do remember when I first saw video of the plane going into the Tower that "it was the biggest story of the year, then I thought decade and then I thought probably way more than the decade" and I was right on that. Journalism training steps in always. I thought on how the plane going in reminded me of Kamikaze pilots crashing their planes into ships at sea in old late night movies that took place in World War 2.
Everything that year was a post mark, a PS as 911 was THE story of the year. A week or two later I went to my daughter's school for a meeting with her teachers and there were 2 cop cars outside, not one but two. I thought "is that really necessary" then worried what if it really was indeed necessary. Everyone was nervous., angry, upset and their sense of security had been ripped away as average people doing regular jobs in previously safe spaces that weren't so safe had died, been killed and are being remembered today as I type this.
Nothing big in the tropics. Models doing modeling. Satellites are looping. I'm a writer and I write and that is how I process my thoughts. It's part of breathing to me. An area is highlighted on a government sites to watch this area so we will watch.
The party model had a new idea.
Similar beginnings.
Up over Cuba.
Lunges everywhere ....
takes aim on the Panhandle/Big Bend.
Check back tomorrow....
.. never believe a model more than 7 days out.
I don't even trust them 5 days out.
I have to cook. Well cook some, as tonight's dinner is a community meal celebrating Rosh Hashonnah. Yes, we have a guard. Yes many carry in North Carolina. The Church next store and two down the block have off duty police parked outside on Sundays. This is not the world I grew up in, but it's the world I live in. But I try and focus on positive things. I'm a realist and yet as a realist I know there isn't much I can do and you do the best you can. My Dad always said something like that, "you gotta do what you gotta do" and that is true.
Stay tuned. I think there is a window, an opportunity for something to develop. But I have low expectations as I am a realist. And, I really have things to do today still.
Thanks for reading. Not going to proof this as it's written in real time. My memories of 911. I also sat listening to a moment of silence with my husband earlier after a prayer was given on the radio, satellite radio parked outside an appointment, but just the chiropractor and it was no cancelled!
Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm
I'll be back blogging on Monday or late Sunday Night should some yellow circle surprisingly pop up somewhere.
Ps my daughter is an awesome artist, she graduated from college with a degree in Art. My daughter was right ...she knew immediately what it was and that to me was a humbling thought at the time while I watched them bicker as the news streamed on and on and on.
GFS Up to It's Old Tricks. It's the GFS ... Take it With a Whole Lotta Sea Salt. Will Autumn Solstice See a Tropical System Somewhere in the Atlantic? Old Stationary Trough or CAG? Time Will Tell.
I know I've been quiet. Like an annoyed child pretending to hold my breath or my words in this case. Also I was a bit under the weather, nothing serious, seeing as how the weather has not been my friend these days in the Carolinas where promised cold fronts don't show up til two days later and then they are more like cool fronts for a few hours in the early morning. Hot! Hot! Hot! has been the rule most days. But we did get a cool front and it's better than nothing. Models show it staying this way til the end of September or at least the last week or so. Reliable models show it stays warm for quite a while into September.
I'll add my sulky, moody, stupor was broken yesterday when that model known to be not reliable always........the GFS did it again and has stubbornly insisted on showing something develop down where El Nino is still shutting down the Caribbean then it moves up through the Yucatan Passage and slams into Louisiana near the Sabine River as a Major Hurricane. I really can't see where or how that's gonna happen. I mean does El Nino take a Mini Vacation? I know it's the GFS and we don't really trust it, and yet we look at the GFS and even when we don't run it we see it on social media. Why you ask? Because it is good at showing patterns that help us think twice on things. Not a Category 4 forming but strong rain or a close in tropical storm again could form there in that area and time frame. Patterns do repeat. And reliable models show a weakness where a cold fronts collapses in hot water as cold fronts can only go so far South beore going stationary.
Listen it woke me up. That and tonight's scheduled football game! I love football and weather, and autumn weather and we are so close. Anyway it's easy to say most people on social media aren't posting on it but suddenly everyone is for some reason posting on the CAG and explaining how it works. Hmnnn.
It's the story of the day...
...and so it should be.
We are moving into CAG season.
Well soon we will be.
Many a landfalling hurricane or strong tropical storm has formed in slow El Nino years. Sometimes a strong tropical wave stays alive in some fashion and once near the Yucatan, near the CAG (Central American Gyre) and that provides some spark of energy. The list is long of storms that did that, though it's a harder trick during such an El Nino as this one. The other chance is something forms at the tail end of a front.
The best way to take this model is to watch the pattern, pay attention to other models and the synoptic patterns responsible for our current and future weather in the short term. Maybe there will be a weak system like Edouard or a stronger one and it'll pull more to the right in the Gulf. It's also possible, and plausible, that something might form off the East Coast of Florida and try and move up the coast towards another early fall front.
Lastly I want to mention the reality of latent energy and how when it is pent up, at some point the energy breaks like a dam and when it does........if it does it's often strong, powerful. It is in fact a part of the purpose of tropical systems in that they shake up the atmosphere... move tropical air North towards the Poles and at this time of year that usually shakes up the dam up there and allows colder air to move South. This happens often around the solstice and in the old times, before we had models and satellite imagery and the NHC the old timers watched the weather carefully during the solstic times for signs a West Indies Cyclone might show up in Texas or North Carolina or anywhere in between. As this "crazy model" nails that period in time it's worth talking about the CAG and how sometimes in weak, slow seasons one big hurricane forms and creates trouble. Think Sandy, think Wilma.... late season storms to name only two that formed and the seasons changed and cool weather was on the back end.
So don't eat the Twinkies, pay attention and hope and pray this horribly, hot, never ending summer goes away and we get cooler air and fall leaves and drinking Pumpkin Spice Latte is not an act of faith but because it's a cool, chilly Autumn evening!
NHC Says Nothng .... Home Grown Pop Ups Surprise... Close IN. Trader Joes Has Pumpkin Everything! It's Autumn! Soon the 100 Degrees Days Will Go Away!! Pray!!
Nothing expected to develop in 7 days.
Looking at the satellite imagery below...
A lot of showers near the Yucatan..
Moisture around Florida....
A front UP where they thrive
Hot as Hades in the Carolinas.
A wave starting it's trek across the Atlantic.
Currently I'm looking close in...
...will think on waves later.
Also Northern latitudes could get a Subtropical.
This map shows RDU 100 degrees.
Actual temperature.
Hoping by mid September it goes away.
Because I'm ready to play in Autumn Leaves..
...and so ready to enjoy cool air.
This is not a map of where to buy PSL
not a Halloween graphic
High Heat Warnings...
2 days in a row 100 Degrees
So.... went to the store...
...and out for Ice Cream!!
Went to Traders Joes to go shopping. Produce, Pumpkin Ice Cream, Vanilla Pumpkin candle. It's an act of faith... like prayer. Summer heat has an expiration date and buy it and it will come! The Vanilla Pumkin hand cream was sold out :( Maybe next time! It was cool, cold and music was playing and I was swaying as I moved around the aisles. Make the heat go away.
As for the tropics they have a way of coming alive late in the season.Even in El Nino Seasons.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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