A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Raining in Raleigh. Tropical Wave in SW Carib. Nothing Expected to Develop .... But Hey It RAINED HEAVY in Raleigh Tropics Quiet in Atlantic Basin
The Dirty Side of El Nino. Huge High Shuts Down the Atlantic This Week. So Hot it's Even HOT in Denver!
That's all I need to show you. Don't need to show the NHC.
Nothing out there.
I took the weekend off from weather and the blog. Raleigh weather has been stifling hot and unbearable. The evenings are almost pleasant, sometimes even a small breeze that tries to convince you tomorrow won't be another day from hell. But I've seen the forecast and know the models intimately so yeah, that's not happening. And, I'll add that this is turning into the summer from hell being brought to you by El Nino. Droughts turn into fires and crops die in parts of the South where the rain is not falling.
Again El Nino is not the hero in the story. El Nino is a bad boy that comes on the scene in the Spring, builds in the Summer and shows his power in the Fall and usually December is closer to Prime Time. But, the real question is will this be a short lived El Nino or a long term El Nino? Google it. Lost of stories, studies of the 1997 El Nino. In 1997 the El Nino went so far West it covered the Pacific and Indonesia and parts of Austrailia got the worst of it. Yes, you don't always hear much about that in Georgia or Kentucky unless you have friends or relatives there. The news is very ethnocentric and focuses on stories that will sell and so they don't tell you the whole story.
1992 was the tail end of an El Nino.
Still it's a common El Nino signature.
Nothing in the Carib.
North Atlantic activity.
Andrew almost died crossing the Atlantic.
They were "this close" to pulling the plug.
Waited one more advisory...
...Andrew lived to tell the tale.
2026 is a tale that is just about to show it's face and we will see what this El Nino really does, but I can feel it and see it in the hot breeze that dries out the soil and is killing crops already.
We will see. Check out the graphic below from Windy.com that is set to the temperature filter for this Wednesday at 5 PM.
Yellow is warm.
Orange is hot.
Rusty orange is very hot.
You can make out the Appalachian Mounts.
Sliver of yellow.
You can see the highest mountains out West....
...shades of gold.
It's a HOT SUMMER
And it's gonna get hotter in some places.
See those temps for the weekend!
I suppose the low temps are the tell..
That's for Denver, Colorado.
Not Miami.
Not Savannah.
Not Houston.
Anyway I just felt the need to be honest. It would be wonderful if "we" did not get any horrible landfalls this Hurricane Season in the USA but it's not just about the USA and it's not just about hurricanes. A simple reminder that one of the biggest killers is a Heat Wave. People have to work outside the in the heat. People have to commute in the heat. People have to walk the dog in the heat! You can't hide inside forever and the cost of your electric bill only soars and as crops die the prices of basic foods go up.
But hey........it looks like the 2026 Hurricane Season won't be that busy! High FIVE!
High heat, no relief in sight. Fires burning. Crops dying. But all many think about is whether or not the Hurricane Season will be busy or slow. And, it only takes one in a slow season as we know as we had Michael and Flo (Florence) and Andrew and the list goes on.
Pray for rain or do a rain dance, whatever you believe will work!
There's two sides to every story and the ugly side of El Nino is not being talked about much. But if it is as bad, as strong as most expect it to be then you will be hearing about the other side of El Nino, the ugly side.
Stay cool. Stay hydrated.
I know two people who had to go to the ER for "feeling sick" and they are smart people and yet they were dehydrated. They thought sipping a Diet Coke would keep them hydrated enough. What can I say. They were wrong. Luckily it was only dehydration and caught in time. They are currently drinking water and guzzling Gatorade.
So you might want to buy El Nino Supplies! Lots of beverages. No not Red Bull (though they do have some good flavors) okay maybe a Red Bull for emergencies. But drink a lot. By the time you feel as if you're about to pass out and can't walk, the damage has been done so do not let yourself get to that point. Stay hydrated. Water bottles are not just for the gym or talking long walks. Plan out your activities if you can as many who work outside cannot. Check on the neighbors who might be elderly or ill. If you are prone to Asthma, keep your inhaler on you and try to lay low if you can on the hottest days. And, yes I know someone who died because she didn't have her inhaler on her... as young kids are want to do thinking they will be fine.
Stay fine!
The High that owns the Atlantic.
Nothing to say about the tropics. The huge High Pressure in the Atlantic is working in coordination with Saharan Dust to suck all of the moisture out of the tropical waves. Again, a good percentage of rain that feels the crops in the heartland get is from westbound tropical waves that did not develop, but stayed alive intact to get up into the Mississippi Valley and rain on corn, peanuts, sweet potatoes and wheat! And, there's a big problem with Hay and that's nothing to laugh about.
So check back tomorrow.
Gotta make dinner.
Any action is in the EPAC as it is usually this time of year.
Arthur Exits Stage Right.............. Finally. Lost Power This Morning ... from Arthur's Remnants Go Figure. Power Fixed. Bermuda High Reigns Over the Atlantic.
'
State of the tropics today....
Friday, June 19th, 2026
A big ball of convection over Texas
And a new wave off Africa with lots of color
In between is one huge High Pressure.
Wave train staying low...
...riding Southern rim of the High.
Fronts exit stage right off of America....
...sail high above the High in the N ATL
I know we have El Nino
But this is the HIGH playing defense.
It would not allow a goal to get thru...
...if it was playing Hockey.
NHC marked the spot with a X
Zero% Chance
X Arthur
For posterities sake I guess.
Earthnull shows a disturbance in the force...
...but nothing more.
Don't know what to tell you except have a great weekend! Enjoy the calm quiet period. At some point something will try and spin up and similar to other El Nino years the shear will blow the tops off of the tropical waves and it will be next to impossible to form. Some will get through, as that's the way things work in the Tropics even in Super El Nino years.
There's a huge clean up in the Gulf states that dealt with TS Arthur. Flooding was pervasive and costly across a huge area. Wind damage in some places will be costly to clean up and takes time. The Tornado that touched down near New Orleans will have a price tag. There were a few deaths attributed to the storm from flooding; driving into flooded areas especially at night are one of the most common causes of deaths during a storm be it a weak tropical storm such as Arthur or a Major Hurricane. Louisiana and Mississippi had over 20 inches of rain in some spots in a few days time. Some estimates in the most severe areas were closer to 30 inches. I have not spent much time looking through statistics, but they were from people I trust. In Raleigh most areas got a good two inches which is awesome, but it's only a start in trying to erase the drought. I'm happy.
On a personal level in Raleigh I was without electric today from 7 AM until close to Noon. Yes, from weather related to the remnants of Arthur. We had high winds last night and heavy rain, this morning we had strong thunderstorms. Supposedly something got hit by lightning and equipment was thrown offline and had to be replaced and restored. I don't know. I went to Target. I trusted we would get power back. A minor problem and nothing compared to what is going on in parts of the South. I was offline for a long time as it knocked the cable company off and for some reason TMobile barely had one bar for much of the day here. Life goes on... not a huge concern. The parade for the Carolina Hurricanes is tomorrow in downtown Raleigh that is literally the biggest news in town.
Yes There ARE Tropical Waves Swimming Hard Trying to Get Across the Atlantic ...Been Ignoring Them... So This Blog is For You. But... Today Is All About Arthur's Leftovers... June Too Soon For African Wave Train Right Now.
Note to my teenage self:
Do not fall for it! Yes it's a cute little wave, it's looks happy and alert, and still has some nice colorful convection while it looks out towards where it wants to go and thinks it can hide from the shear by the entrance of the Caribbean and just slide under the Saharan Dust. Yes, I know it's so cute and you love African Waves.
Rolling eyes........ ..........okay it has a cute li'l pink heart.
Remnants of Arthur Spawn a Confirmed Tornado in New Orleans. Tornado Warnings Up in the South All Morning. Midwest Tornado Weather Still Going Strong This Morning. NHC Gives X Arthur 10% Chances off Reformation in the Atlantic. Low Chances But A Chance. Stay Tuned. Busy Weather Day.
Our land loving Arthur is still causing trouble this morning as a Tornado Warning went up in New Orleans this morning and the NHC hoisted a yellow X over the Mississippi River with an arrow pointing to an area where Arthur may reform once back in the Atlantic. The models have suggested this and late yesterday the NHC actually mentioned it in their advisory for Arthur in the discussion. It's been on the table on social media and in discussion between weather people and officially now from the NHC. It's an opening 10% bid in the tropical version of the game Jeopardy! And, as always, we just have to watch, wait and see what evolves in reality.
I'll be honest when looking at the tilted structure of Invest 90L and what was stacked against it I felt it probably had a better had a chance as a Low off the Carolinas of getting a name then in BOC or the Gulf. But as I have said before I've seen garbage looking Invests get upgraded just before landfall in the BOC or as they struggle towards land in the Gulf. In this case, 90L preferred land over the warm, tropical waters of the Gulf go figure. The name is gone, the official floater is down but his remnants remain and any damages or God Forbid deaths attributed will be associated with the remnants of Arthur.
While the NHC has pulled the plug on Arthur, for now, or let's say put it "on pause" we may not be done with it yet. While TS Arthur lacked a cohesive center it has delivered the forecasted punch of flooding, severe weather and tornadoes. Our night of tornadoes in Indiana hours ago has evolved into our morning of tornadoes in both the South and the Midwest. But nothing is more compelling as a tornado that is doing more damage on the ground in the New Orleans general region than many Category 1 Hurricanes would ever do. Lots of ironies here, but there's time to think on that later when Arthur has moved on from this part of the Mississippi River. Weather is weather. Severe Weather is severe weather. Tornadoes happen.
As I type this there is now a tornado warning for Picayune. I've said countless times, there is more to be feared from a messy, sheared minimal Tropical Storm at times than most Category 1 Hurricanes. The word Hurricanes makes people sit up and listen; prepare and pay attention and take precautions. Hurricanes often are tightly wound with a cohesive center and move along a specific path in the Cone. A barely there Tropical Storm or remnants of splashes tornado warnings across a wide area in a patchwork pattern that really has no pattern. And, after days of torrential rain there are areas flooded with stalled out cars that were taken by surprise of the actual intensity of the weather associated with Arthur.
They may have pulled the floater...
...but the weather from X Arthur remains.
Gotta love Tropical Tidbits.....
..if you use them send them some cash love.
Takes a lot to run his incredible site.
Going wider ....
Weather popping everywhere.
Dangerous Weather
Speaking of dangerous weather...
...and the NHC yellow arrow.
Where ever X Arthur goes...
..trouble seems to follow.
In the Carolinas we are watching for rain.
We need rain.
We don't need tornadoes....
...but we definitely need rain!
Busy weather day today across the USA
Lots of pretty crayons being used here. Much not very pretty weather.
Updated 45 MPH! TS Arthur Forms! A Look Into the Heart of the Tropical Matter and the Mind of the GFS & EURO Today. .. Huge Messy, Dangerous Weather Maker
Note the pressure dropped as well.
Generally dropping pressure....
...means winds are going up.
And so NHC put out a Special Advisory.
Extended Warnings as well!
Showing cone with extended TS Warnings.
Showing the Interactive Cone as I'm a fan.
You can zoom in, move it around.
Click on your area.
It's obviously gonna be that kind of day..... ...next advisory at 5 PM
***
The horizontal blue line is TS Warnings.
Tropical Storm Force winds...
..can be expected.
Gusts higher as usual.
But again this is a rain event.
Flooding event.
Severe Weather event.
With winds of 40 MPH
Hovering around the coastline currently.
This graphic shows....
...barometric pressure is low....
Lower than everywhere else.
It's a marginal TS
Pressure is very high elsewhere.
1001 compared to 1018 in some places.
As often happens in El Nino years, early in June before a developing El Nino clamps down with steel jaws onto the Atlantic Basin tropical systems will form where they can ....where the atmopshere allows formation. Arthur is a good example of a storm forming close in from multiple factors near the coastline in an El Nino Year. In 1997 while the "Mother of All El Ninos" was in the headlines, the basin was very quiet. Danny formed near the coast in the Gulf from non tropical origin.
(from Wikipedia)
It delivered a punch and continued on across the South intact and reformed in the Atlantic. 2026 is said to be "twinning" 1997 El Nino wise, so we will have to see if Arthur can manage that unusual trick! And, Danny was a Hurricane not a Tropical Storm, but still it's an interesting scenario that some models have tried to replicate recently.
Very minimal hurricane.
Time will tell.
Please keep reading if you have not read this already.
Mike made a graphic this morning that really speaks to me, and so I am going with it and sharing my thoughts. Why do we look at the GFS and the EURO when there are so, so many others to mention? In a way they are two parts of this puzzle. They are like twins that shared a womb, but are not identical and yet they have the same gene pool. They look at the tropical mystery and come up with two possibile scenarios for the crime. We are in Prime Time for the 2026 Hurricane Season. It may not look like much, but we may not get much and this is close to land, close to populated areas and it's an important forecast. The NHC put up possible Tropical Storm strength in the discussion, and yet they have used the "regardless" word over and over to remind people reading it that regardless of getting a name this can and will deliver dangerous weather and flooding in an area where there is already flooding and that is the true meaning of misery.
Back to the Twins who are not identical, but have the same genes.
The EURO has been strange this year so far. It's as if it's trying to show the GFS two can play at this game. Perhaps there's so much pressure with the new AI models breathing down it's back, but it's been acting like the GFS. It takes out the pink crayon coloring in the bottom half of Mississippi that dips it's big toe into the beautiful azure waters of the Gulf. On either side from SW to NE there are dabs of pink painted in to make a more balanced forecast. Suddenly the NHC aka Charlie Brown approaches the football and isn't sure if this is Lucy or Patty as it feels like a trick. And, yet it IS the EURO and for a long time it has been King.
Next we have the ever popular GFS for those of us who like to use Xray Vision to look way down the tropical road. The GFS is the Queen of the Pink Crayon. (sounds like a song title, but I digress) The GFS draws a beautiful heart over the water near where the Sabine River meets the Gulf. The GFS rarely wants to hit Houston as much as New Orleans ...it definitely has a thing for Louisiana. It splashes fuchsia across Alabama just to show it's individualistic streak and includes the Florida Panhandle into the dangerous action where tornadoes are very likely to form and move their way inland across the coastal cities as they so often do.
If I was a Mathematician and used my only my left brain I'd cut the difference, average it out and say the beautiful area in Mississippi is going to get slammed with weather as it usually does. Chasers race to Gulfport and Biloxi and those who know... know Hurricane House in Bay Saint Louis and wonder if Mother Nature is playing a trick on Josh. I'll give you weather my friend... but haha not a Hurricane, well not this time. Li'l mean and cunning but that would be kind of ironic. I mean how often does Mobile get hit by an eye? And, well no there is no eye so maybe this time? And, as always no matter where the center of a messy, early tropical system is in this part of the Gulf warnings go up for strong cells that produce tornadoes along the coast of the Florida Panhandle.
I have two parts of me, the right brain and the left brain and they are always debating. But what I really need is an EYE to be sure, or at least a cohesive, coherent center. But this is early June in an El Nino Year and this is probably the best we are going to get for a while. And the truth is .... REGARDLESS....this PTC One ...Wannabe Arthur is a huge weather maker. And, that is why we are all here. Yes, some of us like colorful crayons, but seriously we are here because we love, we study, we follow and chase weather in one way or the other. And, areas from Houston to the Florida Panhandle is where our attention is focused. Personally, I love New Iberia ...but that's me not PTC ONE... just saying.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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