Are Models Dreaming on a November Storm? Next Name Up Kyle! Some Models Dreaming on a November Like Pattern. What Do U Dream On? Tropics or Winter?

 

Are models dreaming ....

..on a November Storm?

I'm going to write a bit and discuss some slim possibilities that another Tropical Storm could form and yet it's a long shot (in my opinion) but there's a lot of talk on the street about it. Kyle is the next name up. 

The only reason I'll give it a thought is that we are expected to have a deep diving, very strong cold spell in early November. That's rare as usually back home where I am from we rarely get strong fronts that early. Often, we sometimes get a bit of a chill in the air on Halloween. Cold fronts are more likely to show up by Thanksgiving and trust me we are very thankful. 

I have not spoken on Winter 2026/2027 but the talk on the street is we may have a continued set up .. a pattern from the South to the North of winter trouble. I don't trust long range models, but I like to look and yes I do think on it. But it is still hurricane season, even if hurricanes were mostly no shows this year. So let's look at the tropics the next 10 days!

A few models show something that tries to develop at the end of the stalled out cold front the models are currently promising. That is a normal set up for a November storm. They come together near the dead front stalled out near the Caribbean and then shoot off to the NE or NNE or even East.  Yet nothing has really been normal this year, right? So let's look at models. 

EURO above.

Euro shows a Low of some kind there... 

Another above.

The Canadian is below.

Note the similarities. 

But this one.... is 

actually a coastal cruiser

should this happen

we have a pattern 

Coastal Lows 

in style 

lately

About 8 days away.

See what NHC does

Tho they have been slow...

...to jump on random lows.

The will need more than a...
...long range models 

to take out the yellow crayon.

Speaking of Winter.

we are having Winter Dreams.

The set up may be there.........

...or a replay of this type
of early Winter Storm

Currently it's just 

Winter Dreams

So go have a great Halloween!

Halloween Weekend.

November coming up soon ;)

Sweet Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Old song.

My Dad liked it.

Loved my Dad so ...

...enjoy

Fair Days Across the USA ... Both Coasts Have High Tides and Flooding. Waiting on Winter. Li'l Low Down in Bahamas.. NHC Says Nothing.

 

I've been quiet.

So has the weather.

There are small craft warnings on both coasts. Yes both coasts have had problems with flooding that's due to the full moon. As everything these days needs a title or a handle for social media ....it's now called the King Tide. Common in Spring and Fall. Nothing new.... except the wild damages along the California coast where it's been stronger than usual battering beach, waterfront homes. Due to El Nino, a hyper active Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season and on the East Coast a plethora of No Name Coastal Storms...some called Nor'easters tho one was actually upgraded as it moved away to and was crowned Josephine. Well, it's been messy, even though it's a quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season. Can we find a Kyle somewhere still? 

In the middle of the country some fog warnings. Up in the far NW "winter weather" and down near Mexico there's a tropical storm warning. NHC says Vance is poorly organized and mentions an exposed center which means they are ramping up to pull the plug on Vance. Nuff said.

Mr Weatherman points to this area...

...that was near Hispaniola.

Now closer to Bahamas.

Helping the recent tropical rains in Miami.

He shows the circulation around the Low

(not featured by NHC ...still a Low tho)

On the back side rain has been moving in...

...wild squalls that feel tropical.

They are tropical but not organized. 

Added to this the "King Tide"

seen below on Earthnull.

Light green lines packed together...

...means high winds.

Constant high winds.

In combunction with the King Tides..

... the Full Moon

There has been plenty of coastal flooding.

No name, no storm.

But it's been a high price tag for beach businesses.

There's been some flooding of stores.

Streets flooded means no one is shopping.

Not even the tourists.

I think nuff has been said.

But it's the drama behind the calm ...

No named hurricanes does not mean ...

...no problems, no pain, easy sailing.

Speaking of sailing...

Boating not suggested close in...

...where squalls and high winds pound the coast.

Not to mention crazy pop up storms.

I won't lie where I live the weather is incredible, wonderful, beautiful and oh my gosh we are beginning to show Fall Color :) and I love it.  I love Miami, but once away you realize how beautiful the seasons are and how awesome it is that the Miami Heat has an expiration date; weatherwise obviously not sports wise.

A no filter, point and shoot day!

Meanwhile we are always watching...

...the tropics below.

Winter storm possibilities above.

Coastal Storms.

Making Manwich for dinner.

Very Fall sort of dinner ;)

Sweet whatever dreams you want...

.... hope ya get em!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Love this song.

All year... still love this song.

Enjoy

Subtropical Josephine in Atlantic. Maybe a Fish Storm But Coastal Impacts & Busy Shipping Lanes Blue Skies in Carolinas. Vacation to Greensboro at O Henry Hotel. Oh So Wonderful!

 

I love Zoom Earth.

It's awesome for a wide view.

You can move it around anywhere...

...and then zoom in!

It's not static or boring.

It puts U in control.

Of what you want to look at ....

...there's Josephine.

The yellow area with 10% is highlighted.

And check out that wild low near England.

Ireland, Spain.

October gives us huge storms.

cold air there very noticeable...

Steals my attention ....actually!

NHC below.

Josephine is forecast to hit the road....

... it's a long road.

I also love the Interactive Cone.

Shows time stamps well.

You can zoom in.

There's a pattern here ...notice.

Still forecast to have 80 MPH winds.

Subtropical.

Strong impacts across a wide area.

Look how tight those isobars are....

far from the center.

Still slamming the beaches by us...

Love this site that shows wave heights.

Well shows a lot but also shows them.

Beware at the beaches ....

...even as Josephine waves goodbye!

Now let's talk about Fish Storms.

Josie is a Fish Sorm to many.

True Confessions:
I had a friend online years back. They had a job working with ships at sea....and they worried on the storms that endangered the shipping lanes and those big ships that needed to beware of big ocean storms known by many as FISH STORMS! They'd remind people just because there are not islands in the track, that doesn't mean there are not people on ships at sea in the shipping lanes. And, they are correct there are dangers even in the path of what many perceive as unimportant "fish storms" so keep that in mind.

The NHC and it's many sister and brother departments take into consideration things such as ships at sea, people onland far from a huge Subtropical and they forecast as they see fit. In every year, busy or slow, there are early and late season storms such as Josephine. 

That's a whole lot of shipping lanes....
..in the path of Josephine.

Keep that in mind.

Otherwise the weather is oh my gosh awesome.
Rather cool nights..... cold at 5 AM!
Blue skies. Bright sunshine.
Warming up to 73 degrees.
Woke up to 39 degrees.

Pick your favorite hour ;)

I'm back now after being away for two days on mini vacation up in Greensboro at the beautiful, amazing, awesome O Henry Hotel. Words really do not... cannot convey the wonders you see there with attention to detail, their pleasant staff and their many ways to spend time from tea time to late night cocktails and everything in between. Considering one of my degrees is in English.... it did have me at it's name alone and worth knowing they have a colleciton of his stories in each suite a present from the hotel itself. Floral arrangements and seasonal decor. Being it was the week of the High Point Funiture Mart Show up the road, and no I didn't go we were there as my husband had a seminar there. I killed some time wisely in the patio outside the restaurant and the bar sipping a new age Old Fashioned, enjoying the breeze and conversation with other guests and Jared who works at the restaurant there. Fall fully in the air and pumpkins on the breakfast cart. Also, they have the best music. It's that combination of old classics and modern melodies that anyone can enjoy. I heard this song and it made me smile, as a good friend always loved this song and the skies were indeed oh my gosh so blue.

A trip there is definitely worth the time and it takes you back in time to when a night at a hotel was an experience to remember vs a place to crash and get some sleep on a business trip! Linger, lounge, take a bath and enjoy. Wander the gardens. Sit in the lobby. Smile. Breathe in... breathe out. 

Sweet Dreams

Autumn

Fall 

or

Winter

Choose your dreams wisely!

BobbiStorm

Subtropical Storm Josephine Forms Off the East Coast. NHC Forecasts Possible Hurricane Force Winds. New Yellow Area in Atlantic.

 

This became apparent today ..... as some of the most conservative meterologists pointed out and explained why it looked like a Subtropical. This is not a hype game, it's what a Subtropical is and a very typical October Subtropical Storm that years back would have been described as a Hurricane or Gale before we had an NHC. Journals, old style blogs, carefully recorded details of the off shore storm and how much flooding the beaches had as well as which trees had damage. They meticulously listed which ships went missing or washed up on a beach. October storms in this region are nothing to laugh off. And, often they do much damage along the coast before they get a name from the NHC while on their way out to sea somewhere else. That said many places along the coastline are in Wind Probs for wind probabilities and people in the cities shown below should pay attention to their local NWS and weather experts! Again trees have leaves on them and are more likely to come down in areas getting blasted by the offshore storm. 

Note Cape Race Newfoundland to the North and to the South Ocean City Maryland are in the wind probabilities . In between you have JFK Airport and most of New England. Again this is a coastal Storm on it's way out to sea, but much damage can still be made from such storms.... especially as this one has been around for days in formation stages building up it's energy. It's a lot of weather and wind even if "just a Subtropical" so keep that in mind.

Look fast.

The sun is setting 

on Josephine.

You can see the center.

You can see how large it is....

...and that IS the signature

of Subtropical Storms.

NHC discussion 

80 MPH is possible.

Earthnull shows her size.

When I say size I mean influence.

From New England to the Carolinas.

The beaches are churned up.

The wind is blowing.

Ships at sea ...

...need to pay close attention.

Looks like a Rorschach test

I see a Giraffe personally.

That's it. Just got back from a Mini Vacation up the road to Greensboro where my husband had a Seminar at the O Henry Hotel ....  one of the most beautiful, well run hotels anywhere. The suites are perfect, the bathrooms are incredible (yes this really matters if you have ever been there) and yes the bar, the restaurants, the Afternoon Tea is the height of Southern perfection. Honest. Love it. And, saw some leaves beginning to turn here and there as we drove back on the back roads so I could see the real Carolina. Pulling into Raleigh the NHC named Josephine. Perfect timing.

We all need to get away sometimes. I really needed it. 

That's it ...will update tomorrow.

But .......worth remembering that area to the SE of Josephine stole my attention all day. Time will tell. It could go out to sea, but it could also get a name. Time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Heard this while sipping a drink....

Old Fashioned made New Fashioned.

An old favorite.... 

the music feed had many of my favorite songs.

I hadn't heard in a long, long time.

Coastal Storm... Subtropical Josephine? Definite Maybe. Have to Just Keep Watching. 40% Orange from NHC Currently.

The areas off the East Coast has a 40% Orange chance given to it by the NHC It could become a Subtropical Storm if so it would be Subtropical Josephine. This is the right area for such a storm, right time of year and an accurate name for a short lived system that's quite the storm and not going anywhere fast. Though eventually it pulls out to sea. Currently, it's not an Invest even. But there's a lot of talk among meteorologists and weather people. And, it's something to talk about.

It's not like you have to look hard to find it.

Zoom in there's a little center there.

We will see.

Watched Bryan Norcross this afternoon.
I like to hear him weigh in.

He does not hype.

The fact that he went long on discussion...

...says something.

But he's not running the NHC

And its up to the NHC

to blink and say

It's worthy of naming it a Subtropical Storm 

Til then..........

...it's a coastal low

Possibly called a Nor'easter.

If it gets a name.

It'll be Josephine.

Til then lots of dramatic imagery.

Will update if NHC blinks in any way.

More than 40%

Speaking of 40s.

It was 41 degrees this morning.

Love it.

Doesn't get much better than that here.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

NHC Blinks! Weighing In in the Coastal Low. Nor'easter. Maybe Subtropical. Regardless..... Yellow Circle 30%

 

8 PM Saturday Night.

Words matter so straight from the source.

"Strong Non-Tropical Low Pressure area"

"Subtropical possible"

"Move slowly erratically"

REGARDLESS..........

High Winds

Coastal Flooding

Dangerous Surf

(check local Warnings)

that's what they said.

EURO Monday 8 PM

(lots of coastal erosion)

GFS Monday same time.

Wednesday EURO...still there.

The cold front went through early, lots of rain, wild wind and blessedly wonderful cool to cold air streaming through faster than originally forecast by most. About what I expected as it seemed to be on the move Friday late in the day. Woke up to rain, steady rain and the curtain facing North in the bedroom was blowing like a sail in the wind. Smiled. Rain stopped near Noon, cold air blowing and the tall pine trees were dancing wildly, weaving back and forth in the wind. Just as I hoped. Won't lie, it's chilly and I should either turn the ceiling fan down or shut the window some or just dig out some warm winter pajamas. :)

Heard mandatory evacuations on OBX and Ocracoke for tourists. Ferries not going to be working. People on the Banks being told to expectd to be stranded some for a few days. Pay attention to watches, warning and hunker down. This means you most likely will see more homes lose battles with the waves expected to pound the beaches for a part of the week. Time will tell and we will see how long it moves erratically or moves up the coast.

I'll do a full update Sunday AM. This is just to say that NHC finally weighed in. Good, it elevates attention and good to have NHC's thoughts on the matter.

Watching the Miami Hurricanes play FSU ... a game with a strong rivalry and FSU is more motivated than most teams to play hard and Currently giving the Canes a run for their money. Go Canes...

Besos BobbiStorm

Love this song.

Should go to Colorado soon.

We'll see.

It's 65 in Denver
48 in Raleigh

Go figure :)

Fall is on the Way. Not Fake Fall but a Strong Cold Front. A Coastal Storm May Be Forming.... NHC Says Nada Nothing ... NOAA Maps Show a Possible Gale off Carolina Coast. Questions....

 

1st off NHC says nothing happening in Atlantic.

Yes and no.

They aren't into Subtropical or Hybrids...

...unless they are halfway across the Atlantic

high up and already smelling

like dead fish

as they upgraded after they were stronger.

Just being honest.

You can't have it both ways.

A little consistency goes along ways...

...when it comes to public trust.

Not ignoring this area.

One of a few possible areas of convection.

Does it lift up towards the Front?

There's also a small area in the W Gulf

Good WV Loop.

Nothing like black and white.

You have moisture in the Gulf...
sort of in a cradle like area.

then you have the Yucatan area.

To the North you can see the FRONT

ready to dive down thru the South

(not really deep Florida but panhandle)

But zooms thru the Carolinas.

(God Bless)

Amazingly in MDR

3 little tropical waves westbound.

They obviously didn't get the memo!

At some point the front dies out...

..where when could be interesting.

72 hours from Friday 

We have a stalled out front.

Stationary across S FL

Links up to the "possible gale"

Moisture in Carib will be sucked up...

...by that frontal boundary

(most likely) 

Does a Low form off of Carolinas.

Some say it forms & drops anchor

Lots of questions on how this plays out.

Long range shows...

The front holds strong.

What could go wrong?

7 day Rain Forecast.

That's a strong offshore rainfall

Coastal beach rain.

Does something form?

We will see in real time.

If 2 PM changes ...

...doubt it.

I'll upgrade if NHC blinks.

Either way 

"we got weather"

Not Fake Fall in Raleigh

But FALL ...

...beautiful fall.

Have a good weekend.

If u live where that front will be...

...on the move fast.

Watch out for wild weather.

Strong Winds!

Strong Front.

Til it goes Stationary.

Low expectations

But not ignoring the obvious.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

nice video of songs...
....and fall imagery

Choose your mood... Choose wisely ;)