NHC Giving Development in BOC a Chance.... 10% Yellow 1st of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Can Cristina's Leftovers Spark Development?

 

1st Yellow Area of Interest in BOC!

Intricately tied to Cristina...

...in the EPAC

Tropical systems that cross over from the EPAC into the Atlantic Side are nothing new, but the ones that actually get a name are few and often remembered. This is one basic geographic region and Central America lies between it's two parts! Often development in the EPAC happens from areas of convection that move of of Colombia and Venezuela and move Westward into the EPAC and get a name. Sometimes remnant moisture, as we call it, moves into the BOC or into the Caribbean and becomes an early June storm. Could this be Arthur? Stay tuned the 10% is for the 7 day, but it's 0% in the 2 day.

It's easy to see the connectivity in this graphic above from the Mimic. The first place I looked this morning was the Mimic and the signature I saw made me fairly sure we would get a yellow circle somewhere near the BOC.  This picture best shows how connected the EPAC is with the Caribbean and BOC. You can see the legs, the arms.... where it forms perhaps is hinted at here or perhaps where it "tries" to form. For now it has low chances of development next week sometime. Anything involving the CAG takes time. It's not a tightly wound, westbound tropical wave chugging along under a strong high from Africa over hot water in late August. It's June, not really too soon but generally weak and often found forming in the Bay of Campeche. 

https://zoom.earth/ is an awesome site!

In one image you can see the AOC 10%

and down below the track for Cristina.

And satellite imagery as well!

 Mike....shows it all here in one graphic!

Adore Mike, we've been friends for a long time.

On a cruise he's busy tracking!

So beyond what I have posted, there is not really much more to say. Sometimes the BOC gets development from a long tracking tropical wave that rounds the corner and gets into the BOC from the Carib and sometimes it gets development from the EPAC leftovers. And, usually we have an early BOC named storm to literally kick off the Hurricane Season. Could this year be that year? Stay tuned!

Amazingly.......this area is geologically busy also!

Currently looking like the real...

...Devil's Triangle.

And El Nino off to it's West....

..bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

Stay prepared.

Stay aware.

We have only just begun...

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Gonna leave you for now...

...with this musical melody

a visual reminder of the beauty of the tropics

And the heat, the tropical heat in the air.

Hurricane Season is here....

...stay aware!

Boris & Cristina Fading Away.... Kind of Like Butch Cassidy & The Sundance Kid - Maybe. Convection in Caribbean Questions. BOC Arthur? Maybe.

 

Let's focus on satellite imagery.

NHC cones show them having a short life.

Moving inland with flooding rains.

A close of up of the area.

Blurry but so is the possibility....

...of crossover development in the Atlantic.

Boris moved inland and it's hard for the NHC to find it's circulation center and yet the rain, the moisture oozes about and has flared up close to the coast. Yet it's being sheared off as you can see above. Cristina down below is battling shear. This is where the modeling possibilities of energy from these two getting into the BOC and creating a short lived Arthur fade away fast and fizzle in the light of day and reality bites hard. Being very honest. And, yet I can't honestly say there's no chance of development in the BOC in a few days time. So as always stay tuned.

The Water Vapor Image...

...shows their moisture envelope.

That remains.

Good chance this year June is too soon.

But as always stay aware.

Pop up tropical activity can happen...

...usually close in to the coast.

Especially in BOC region.

And Carib has been curiously stubborn...

...with constant convection.

Have an awesome day

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Would be a nice day to be out on a boat.

Tropical Trouble in the EPAC Boris & Cristina! Earthquake Near Cuba By the Yucatan 6.1 One of the Strongest Quakes Ever in that Region on Record & MIKE Was on The Cruise OVER the Quake! Life is Better Than a Movie!

Knew there'd be video as we'd talked online and knew Mike was on the Cruise around the site off the Earthquake, as in like literally over it on a cruise ship! 

The EPAC has been busy. It's gonna get busier with stronger storms, but so far the next storm name will be Douglas! The Atlantic is currently par for course lagging behind the EPAC that starts earlier in May. Meanwhile, there's been lots of discussion on how, possibly, the moisture from Boris and Cristina might help something develop in the Gulf or the BOC. What if the "spin" survives the crossing. Yes, it's that time of year that we leap at any scent of possible tropical development.  Models were all over it and then went silent kind of fast. Though there are still possibilities. It's a year of surprises so keep watching.

This post shows ya the tropical tea leaves.

Models doing their thing.

GFS super Cane came in for a wonky landing.

Sort of crashed and burned.

Currently nothing more than a chance of rain.

In my mind.

But hey tomorrow is another day!

Dabuh and I stay busy.

Watch the models.

Watch the waves (literally) 

Watch signs near the Yucatan....

...we have a heart game.

A sense of humor and fun is good.

Creative.

Watching the area by the Yucatan.

Cuba has had wild rains.

Key West has had wild flooding.

Sometimes S of a strong High Pressure ridge..

....barometric pressures drop so we watch.

That area down South of Cuba. 

Closer to Jamaica really firing up.

Over and over.

There's an Upper Level Low

Scooping under the convection.

That helps convection continue.

You can see that below.

You can see the blossoming of convection...

above the dark upside down C

That's the ULL down below.

Boris and Christina

Another heart over Cuba!!

What is going on with clouds today???

Watching the area near the Yucatan Passage...

...and oh my goodness!

Well......................

I didn't see that coming!

Apparently this is one of the strongest quakes.

In the Gulf.

This is officially IN the Gulf.

Yucatan Passage.

Where hurricanes form from waves.

But we have shockwaves today!

In the same area we have been watching...

...we definitely had developments of the geological kind.

 6.1 Earthquake.

Originally stronger... will see what holds.

Felt in Miami and the Keys.

SW FL!

Earth Sciences is amazing.

Those are all the reports ...

...zoom in 

Totally crazy!!

Stay tuned what tomorrow brings.

There's always models modeling.

For now ...chances are low.

Far out and not reliable.

But not impossible.

The region does seem active ...

...can't make this up.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

I asked Google for a Yucatan Song.

Okay....... lol

 

Lots of Talk. Not Much Action. But........Possibilities Exist Still. So Keep Watching BUT Have an Awesome Weekend!!

 

Only going to talk on the main Red area.

Tho the orange one could be sleeping.

Complicated, crowded set up.

Amanda out doing it's thing.

45 MPH wandering the Pacific*

Actually Amanda looks stronger.

As or the EPAC crossover to the Atlantic...

Visible loop shows this is mostly....

...potential energy.

There really is not much there to get excited about.

But if it festers, something could form.

Where and when is the big question.

This is really my problem here....

...2 competing systems.

Close together.

Usually one wins out over the other.

Or one plays possum and waits for it to leave.

Then the second one makes it's move.

Looking at Windy.com

Lots of moisture.

EPAC tries hard to spin.

Westbound tropical waves....

...meeting up with moisture from below.

Moisture oozing into Central America..

.. Mexico.

No joke flooding rains could happen there.

And I mean without a named system!

As for models.

Only model I will show is EURO today.

GFS keeps trying but EURO long range...

...EURO tries to be the GFS.

June 17th!

How far out can we go now?

My thoughts are that IF something forms it may be further down the line than yesterday's models were suggesting. Watching Google AI and other AI and all the ensembles of scattered possible storms sprayed across the map, but still nothing I can believe it or I'd invest in or I'd write home about and tell everyone back in Miami "OMG" cause I just can't today.

I'm wondering if Amanda very briefly gets stronger than her forecast expected and then peters out as soon as it hits colder waters.

I'll tell you what is not cold. At my house in NC it's 92 degrees and "feels like 103" and I am not amused. I do not like this sort of heat. It's heavy and oppressive and totally obnoxious! We could use some rain. Supposedly by next Thursday we have several days of chances of rain. We will see. 

The 7 Day shows rain. 

Rain in the Carolinas.

More rain down in the Carib.

Near Cuba... the Yucatan.

Moving up into Florida.

As much as I'd love to believe that's a stalled out frontal boundary, it's more likely something else. But is it just rain, tropical rain from a big sprawling system trying to find it's MOJO and can't find it anywhere. Or something trying to develop?

Don't know. But we are all watching.

Have a good weekend.

I can't say something will form, but I also can't say something will not form.

*You'd think they could stick probes or dropsondes in Amanda out there to get better measurements of El Nino! I am being silly. I am allowed. Don't judge me. 

What I find interesting is there have been huge eruptions in Hawaii of the Kilauea volcano. Hot, red, explosive eruptions high into the sky. I know geologist friends who actually watch this all day live the way we watch the areas in the EPAC and the Gulf that aren't doing anywhere near as much as Kilauea. 

And down below...

...El Nino is bubbling, growing.

Possibly exploding with all that oceanic heat!

Up above........

........and down below.

Over by Africa.....

...things are juicing up.

Strong waves but long waves.

Hmnn

Westbound waves.

Battling SAL

If a wave gets into the Yucatan area..

..and if the Gyre is still there.

And a bit of spin 

Something could form.

Lots of IFs

In a mood.

Tired and it's only June.

I'm not a Summer person.

I want Fall.

Peak of Season.

Football Season!

Feels Like 100s eww

Will figure it out.

We all will....

..that's a lot of heat in the Pacific.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Is Arthur Trying to Form Next Week in the Gulf? Or Somewhere Else? A Bit of Spin from the EPAC Gives it a Chance to Win!! Models Be Spinning Up Possibilities.

 

There has been much discussion on this year's building El Nino about it "twinning" the 1997 El Nino. If you don't know what that is you probably are not a girl and maybe never had a best friend nor wore outfits that looked very similar. It's a thing. Trust me.

We'd get bikinis that almost looked alike. We'd wear cowboy boots with the same cute short dress. We'd go to a formal in almost matching outfits. We were best friends. The question is ..... is 2026 a "twin" of the infamous 1997  El Nino? Many are suggesting that. The data below shows a real possibility. I might see red cowboy boots down the road this season.

Good graphic from Ben Noll.

There is a similarity.

Hard to ignore.

Are they identical?

Probably not ....

...but who can tell the difference?

So let's look at 1997 Hurricane Season.

How it began.....

...Lows off the SE Coast.

An upgraded No Name Low first days of June.

Then Ana formed in the same spot.

We have the same set up now ironically.

We have convection in the Gulf.

And a Low to it's NE.

A High to the North.

Then we have the cross over scenario.

Spin from the EPAC crosses over.

Possibly that "twist" helps get spin going.

Sounds kind of desperate ....

...but it has happened before.

So here's some models.

Lots of members taking their turn ....

....suggesting possible tracks.

June 12th.

You can almost see where the Cone would be.

But much can and will change between now and then.

Definitely people in this zone...

..are watching carefully.

Kind of Nola to @iCyclone's house.

"Hurricane House"

Over to Destin and the Big Bend.

But what really happens?

IF it happens?

It's a Tropical Crap Shoot.

As I have said many times this season, just because we have a building El Nino does not mean there are not chances early on for something to develop close in as usually happens in June and July. Tropical Waves off Africa are not viable yet, though fun to watch them battle the dust and push on Westward. Fronts are still around. We had a cold front in the Carolinas on June 2nd, temperatures dipped to the upper 40s at night. Rebounded way too fast today as the high was 90. So weak fronts. And, weak fronts die out and go flat and linger across the Gulf, across Florida and off the SE Coast and sometimes they develop in the Gulf and other times they develop off the SE Coast and sometimes they do not develop. 

So until Senor El Nino clamps down on the Caribbean with his 9 inch nails .... we have a chance.

Stay tuned. 

Keep watching.

Buy Hurricane Supplies during the July 4th Holiday sales. 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

 

AMANDA Forms in the EPAC! Atlantic Quiet Today. Long Range Models Go a Bit Crazy. Check Back Tomorrow. Record Breaking Cold Temperatures in the Carolinas This Morning!

 

Quick post this morning to say TD-ONE E is now Tropical Sorm Amanda! Look how nice she looks! As she moves out into the Pacific she is forecast to slowly fall apart and not be a threat to any land area, so the name Amanda will stick around it seems. NHC keeps her at Tropical Storm strength on the first advisory they put out. 

As I have always said ...weather is locational. We look at the weather maps from our own perspective and not the other person's perspective. I follow Allan Huffman in the Raleigh area who is a good source for everyone in every area, but he is here in Raleigh. He is very cautious, careful and data driven vs some who hype every possibility online. I like that. But he did discuss long range tropics today on Patreon as it's a valid topic and everyone is asking. Despite the growing El Nino that often lowers our total numbers in the Atlantic, there are still storms, still hurricanes and it truly on takes one. Name another hurricane from 1992 and you will be hard pressed to find anyone that remembers any other hurricane but Andrew. Well, professional tropical meteorologists can but most cannot. 

So never say never.

As for those models....

Euro shows a storm in the Gulf.

The Euro shows a landfall.

Tomorrow who knows what it shows...

...very long range models.

Wednesday June 17th.

How far out can you get?

Makes landfall ..

Aims at FL Panhandle.

But goes UP inland.

Caught my attention...

The GFS shows June 13th...

...my friends in Miami sent me this all day.

My brother sent me models.

Yes, I know...

"they are very far out, not reliable"

But they are all watching.

Ends up fairly close to the EURO

I don't trust models beyond the 5 day.

Sometimes the 7 day.

This far out it's all speculation.

There's always a model running.

Models find storms.

Models lose storms.

Ignore the hype...

..ignore it all.

Focus on 1 thing.

Hurricane Preparation.

I know it's expensive to prepare and there is nothing out there and it's El Nino! In the Carolinas where I live we just hold onto hurricane supplies and use them as Winter Storm Supplies! And, with El Nino who knows we might have a real winter? 

Have a great day. It's a beautiful cool day today in Raleigh and I'm going out and enjoying it. The temperatures climb fast tomorrow into the high 80s. I do think 2026 Hurricane Season will have lots of invariables and surprises down the road. In general it will be an El Nino Hurricane Season, but there's an inconsistency this year and the weather has been bouncy. My kids in Denver barely had snow, then they had snow in the late Spring and sent me pics as if it had snowed in Raleigh. Normally, after the first few snowfalls in Denver they stop sending pictures.  The record we broke in Raleigh today was from 1966, so let's look at the 1966 Hurricane Season just for fun.

And no not an El Nino Year...

...well was coming off an El Nino year.

Scribble Scrabble tracks.

Have a good day.

Gotta run

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere whatever

Invest 90E in the EPAC at 90% for Development! Amanda 1st Name in EPAC. Questions Closer In on Development. There's a Window BUT It's Short Term For Now in Atlantic.

 

Short update this morning to say EPAC is about to get a named storm as they are at 90% in the 7 day and up to 80% in the 2 day.  There is a yellow area being watched closer to the coast with lower intriguing chances of development. The Red 90% is a huge area with a beautiful swirl to it and may influence the weather around it some, while not having any big landfall achievements.

Water Vapor shows the flow

Currently Invest 90E is a big sprawling area.

Takes longer for sprawling areas to...

...pull it together and build a core.

SAL owns most of the Atlantic.

Distant Atlantic....

Gulf and close in to SE/FL coast not as much...

Using a simplistic long range probability graphic.

This really shows you where to look for development.

Not saying we are getting development.

But IF we were this is where to watch.

Gulf/East of FL

I put this on X just now.

There's lots of tantalizing scenarios a weather person can imagine, but that's Fantasy Tracking. And, yet hard truth is hard to find currently. Colorado and Montana barely got any snow until May. June 1st Denver gets a hail storm that looks like snow fell. June 2nd a cold front dives down into the Carolinas with a beautiful breath of fresh air, but it'll disappear as fast as it dived down. 

There is a chance a Subtropical storm could develop fast off the East Coast near FL/Bahamas and exit Stage Right fast! There's a chance development in the EPAC close in that could cross over into BOC/Carib or the potential for development and fuel the ongoing semi-permanent wannabe Low in the Gulf. Nothing I'd place a bet on yet, but watching the set up and seeing where it goes. Still very early and too soon to scream June development. But maybe.... a sliver of a chance. Generally development in EPAC shears away any chances for the Gulf, but hey it's been an odd year and I expect odd to continue weather wise.

El Nino is building a mystery. Yes, we have an El Nino developing but what kind of El Nino? Where it sets up shop, digs in and explodes dictates what we see this Hurricane Season. Closer in more shear, further out less shear in the Caribbean. Lots riding on the actual location of the strength of the El Nino or does it all just fill in the way the way it did in 1997/98? That was a horrific El Nino for Pacific Rim populations. It may have been a season not to remember in the Atlantic, but for many in the rest of the world it was drought stricken, deadly and destructive. Note image below.

Above is December 26th, 1997

Note this is THE graphic as....

El Nino literally is connected to Christmas.

In the early 70s the term made it into the media.

It means the "little boy" 

Christmas time.

Until we hit that reference point...

...we are still in forecast territory.

Watching new charts that come out every day.

So far 2026 has been "twinning" 1997

Again time will tell.

Gotta run...have appointments this morning.

Stay tuned....

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

elsewhere also but not always weather.

1997 was a dark time in ways.

Funny in other ways.

El Nino Song for y'all