What Does Music and Hurricanes Have in Common? What Goes Around Comes Around. Everything Old is New Again. Expect Surprises in El Nino Years

 

So the models backed away on development, and yet the moisture is still locked in place. But models show this blobby mess, concentrated Blobby rain  mass hits the same spot the models hit the other day. Currently I'm just watching the pattern, peeking at models but not expecting much til I see the pattern begin to pull together. 

Keep in mind the darker the berry the less the juice.

Well on this image.

Dark means dry, dry, dry.

Little pockets embedded in the red.

Small tropical waves.

And our huge GUMBY like moisture area.

That's juice off the SE/East Coast.

That said some models.........w

.....there is always that model

Sees possible development!

Will say the waves looking juicier.

That said they swim into dry air.

And shear as well so.......

...take those models with a teaspoon sea salt

But hey even Bryan looking at models.

It's August, we look. 

"August look out you must!"

yep models are modeling the waves.

But they hit shear and dry air.

Only area to really watch is close in.

Close in... Above Caribbean.

The reason I'm mentioning this video is that in El Nino years we sometimes get wonky, weird tracks and surprises happen more in El Nino years than regular years. Betsy in 1965 was one those storms that is the best example. Loved hearing Bryan Norcross discuss Betsy, a hurricane I have studied in great detail. Betsy was a looper! She made several loops. She stalled, she was all about drama. And despite the NHC going with a Carolina, a North Carolina track, she backtracked and turned SW...then stalled again then turned due West the way Andrew did and like Andrew she went West thru Miami and the Keys then went on to that typical 2nd target and slammed into Louisiana ......oh like Andrew did and it'll happen again like Katrina did. But know that in an El Nino Year development should be later when we normally see real development and know to expect surprises because we have fronts and when we do they sometimes slice thru and other times they stall out and things can change in the ever popular cone! Loops can happen anytime, but they love El Nino Years.

Not saying this will happen.

Just saying ... things get wonky in El Nino years.

Hurricane Betsy the Queen Looper!

Never count your Hurricane Seasons as dead...

...until it's November 30th!

Sweet Tropical Dreams or PSL Dreams.

August and platic pumpkins are on the shelves.

2026 be racing on through!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Long Ps with music and some thoughts.

Musical thoughts and personal thoughts.

I had to look up Summer songs 1965

Seems this was all the rage.

Herman's Hermits.

I post this as I have a pal....

...who loves to sing this song.

While driving.

So now you know what your parents

or grandparents were listening to...

...when Betsy burst through Miami.

Surprise!

That song probably played til the power went out.

Ps so next time someone asks you

"huh what's their name?"

Or winces at your music....

Know... 

Music rolls on in each generation.

My kids were there in Miami this weekend!

Ironically last week I was in NY

with my older"hippy" artist daughter ...

...at Woodstock grounds

Dina  remarried her ex husband...

...who is my son-in-law again (yay)

later a band played and she turned to me and said

This is "Zalmy's music" her youngest brother.

I laughed, she walked out into the woods.

I stayed inside dancing :)

Yep... 

What goes around comes around.

Storms such as Betsy 1965 in El Nno Years...

....show up again

1994 Hurricane Gordon

A looper that made the record books

What I am saying is.........

...while each year is unique

Music evolves, revolves

My son was in Chicago at his birthday party.

He loves Zeds Dead

Video o Lollapalooza above

Never laugh at music old or new...

...just move to it and dance.

This season will be slow but not totally dead!

And remember to dance to the music always!

Sway, play, have a good day!

August 2026! Models Teasing Tropical Trouble Off or On the SE Coast... Carolinas???

 

Gonna start here this afternoon.

you know the drill...

NHC Nothing for 7 days

you know the graphic by heart ...

When you make a major life move to a new area the one thing weather people do is look for the local experts. The ones who know that the funnel cloud seemed to have touched down around Ravens Rock State Park and Chick mentions that the elevation there is much higher and that may have made the difference. Chick is that person here, or may I say one of those people who I taught me to understand North Carolina Weather from listening to what they say and absorbing it in until it became fluid and I know NC weather (both winter and summer/hurricane season) almost as good as I know Florida weather.

When Chick posts I pay attention. Is there anyone who follows me on X that doesn't know how I feel about @dabuh and when he posts a heart I know he knows just maybe something is going to happen. No one is perfect, but his long term "this is it" posts almost always verify. It's almost spooky....

This literally hits me where I live.

Straight to the heart of the matter.

While I wouldn't mind some tropical weather...

...I would not love a landfall around Pawley's Island.

That's my happy place up here...

...like Key West in Florida.

Could this happen?

It could.

Close in development.

Not deep tropical action.

But very tropical all the same.

It's too early to say. The NHC isn't ready to blink, but if models keep spinning out scenarios that all align closely one way or the other, they may blink sometime this week. Will models continue to show some agreement? Keep watching. It's not just the ICON. It's not just Dabuh sniffing out hearts that show patterns that continue. It's not just me saying "watch close in, watch close in" as if I have that saying on a tape and if anyone asks me "so Bobbi what do you think weather wise" I'll say like a robot "watch close in, watch close in" or maybe babble it in my sleep even! (Ps once I had a dream back in the day and I woke up and was upset as Fishing and I were in a chat about some tropical wave...hate waking up feeling all jarred and then realizing I was dream texting about the tropics.......truth)

 

The pretty purple....  comes ashore...

..in exact location the ICON has it.

 EURO is notarious for low opening bids.

moves up to the same SC beach

then into NC

A plus on location.

Let's look at a current loop.

The area to the East of Florida wants to spin.

But there ain't no spin now.

Just lots of rain.

Lots of rain lowers pressures.

There's also quite the mess in the NE Gulf again.

Below is a current water vapor image

You have that high pressure to the NW

How low does it go?

Stay tuned.

But one thing I want to note.

Oddly, we have seen tropical development this year..

...impacting near or starting near

where an earthquake struck.

So watch the area to the North of the Islands.

Japan had an earthquake and a typhoon!

Italy has a horrific heat spell and an earthquake.

While I did study Geology in college...

..and I know it's not a theory.

It keeps happening.

Like when a spot it hot... it's hot

Maybe one day we will learn more.

But for now keep that in mind.

While El Nino may have shut down the Carib...

... Mother Nature keeps rocking & rolling quakes.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm with strong thunder in Raleigh

This is for granddaughter who loves this song.

She's a Leo... and a mini me.

(freaky)

She just got back from Aruba....

yeah missing the salt air it seems.

Enjoy.... 

...but know I may talk on Africa this week.

African Wave train has a bit of support.

But not ready to sing that song

Whispers of Developent Down the Tropical Road. GFS Dreams Big. EURO Plays it Coy But Does See Something Close In

 

So you remember how we always talk about the HIGH being a huge factor in development or lack of tropical development and a steering factor if and when a system develops? So keep that in mind with this discussion today.

The GFS has been fairly persistent in something forming off the East Coast either down to the N of the Islands or closer in East of Florida on the far left edge of the Huge HIGH in the Atlantic. As always we say over and over until you hate hearing it "watch the tail end of an old front" and yet it often is the main producer of systems in El Nino years that favor close in development off the East or SE Coast far from the Big Bad El Nino that acts like the Big Bad Wolf that is going to blow Little Red Riding Hood away or in this case what may or may not become Cristobal if the GFS is right. That said the EURO is hinting at some sort of development in that same region, though not as strong of course as the always ready to party GFS. Going to show the GFS, but remember it changes on every run in some way, but most have focused on the coast of the Carolinas. It's true this started with the same system sliding along the Florida coast up towards the Carolinas, now it's consistently offshore the Carolinas. 

It's the GFS

If some off the AI models were on this...

...I'd pay more attention

Note tho there seems alot off rippling...
.. in that area.

The strip off orange that's angled to the ENE 
is moving one way
And the areas to the South are going the other way.

IR satellite imagery shows a little "dip"

Again often part of the front moves on out to sea.

And another part hangs back...
.......and sometimes it can spin into a system.

Lots of IFS

Remember this is WAY DOWN THE ROAD

I am just showing the current environment.

Interesting little swirl (li'l) near Mona Passage.

I just checked the TWO from NHC

That's an upper level low...as I thought.

but I like confirmation  ;)

Note center bottom of the loop.

That little swirl, ULL

Dancing in the Mona Passage

And to the NE nose of the High out to the right.

Near PR 

Listen getting development in an El Nino Year, a strong El Nino Year is not easy. And, it's usually the random connections of a dead in the water front over very warm water, some swirl moves into the area and helps get things spinning close in. Or cross currents do the trick. There are models that are playing with a distant African Wave but it's still a bit soon for August development in any year and this is NOT any year. So while I may watch it, I'm more concerned with close in development in regions beyond the reach of El Nino. And, close in systems especially close in to the coast have more chances to impact land or make landfall. And, IF something develops the general trend in modeling is the HIGH chooses a bad time to expand and push that system closer to the coast. Which is why we always watch the High. 

It's a definite "maybe" 

So stay tuned.

We are far from the NHC blinking yet.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere whatever

Nothing for 7 Days from NHC - Models Wake Up in 10 - 12 Days. Are Models Dreaming? Or Are Models Teasing Us? August Ups the Ante for the Search for the C Storm ;)

 

Let's call this ghostly apparitions of tropical dreams. This is what people are looking at on satellite imagery as vaguely, possible areas that could develop if the dice shake out just right. Models use them as writing prompts and create maps with possible areas of low pressure forming from a variety of appetizers that are most likely nothing more than teasers more than a treat before the full course. There's a tropical wave off Africa I didn't show, it's showing a bit of color but staying close to home on this one.

 We tell the models to "fetch" 
and they find possible scenarios.
This basic idea keeps showing up.
Today it's out to sea off the coast.
Yesterday it slid along the coastline.
Tomorrow is anyone's guess.

There's a lot of rain on the menu next week

5 day so let's look at the 7 day

Something is definitely lingering offshore the SE

add in the Florida Big Bend close in.

I don't know, that's my honest answer but as we move into August the ante for development (especially close in) is raised and somewhere, something will spin enough to get the NHC's attention. The C storm seems to be very shy or very sneaky and doesn't want to reveal himself just yet. Stay tuned....

As for me enjoying the drier air... 

..less humid and cooler at night.

Works for me

I'll check back tomorrow.

See what the models show Friday

going into the weekend.

Thanks for reading, 

Sweet Autumn Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps Autumn ...September is Prime time

One of my all time favorite JB songs.

Jimmy Dreams.

What do you dream?

Snow storms or Hurricanes?

I wonder.........

Wild Storms in Raleigh Yesterday. Low Range Possibilities Show Up on GFS .... Low Expectations. Summer... Where's the Beach?

 

Nothing expected short term ...

...many would say long term.

I take it day by day these days in the tropics.

Of note

1. old frontal system and storms that blew through Carolinas spinning up tornado warned storms and strong gusty winds with torrential rain yesterday. 

2. Odd possible fluff and stuff to the East of the huge High of darkness in the Atlantic.

3. Li'l tropical wave flirting with Central America could move up towards the Yucatan.

4. Wave Train riding on fumes, dry air and shear trying to shut it down but can't completely.

In motion EPAC hot the Atlantic is not.

Tho the Atlantic is not devoid of convection.

(seen it way drier in El Nino years)

But fronts...

..dipping down.

Close up look ....

..."close in" means close to the coast.

Better to the N of the 24th latitude.

Something to watch....

...low, low expectations.

But would never say never!

I will say the GFS lit up X yesterday.

Showed a hurricane in about 13 days ...

...near FL coast aiming at Carolinas maybe.

I mean it's the GFS but hey wakes us up.

GFS vaguely quieter today tho... 

Today I'm "back to normal" and husband is feeling better at work. House is cleaned up. Making something with ground meat for dinner, my internal food muse has not yet told me what I want to make so will see.

OMG incredible.

Didn't even taste like Greek Yogurt.

Creamy, perfect!

If you are ever there ... grab some.

Or whatever flavor you like.

I'm obviously dreaming on Fall.

Processing still all that went on this week in Bethel NY. Best yogurt I ever had from and still trying to catch up with weather and the world. It was actually nice in a way being vaguely off the grid, not listening to BREAKING NEWS or hearing news that's mostly agenda driven and not feeling upset I meant to watch a YT video or run some models.  But very back and happier that we are not high up in the 100s today as we were a few weeks back.

Have not watched it...
...but Caribbean is active geologically.

I have thoughts on that but another day.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X mostly weather.

elsewhere weather and what ever

Next up I need the beach.

I mean really need the beach.

Waiting for Summer tourists to leave ...

I'm a beach girl, raised near the water...

... allergic to tourists lol.

and loud crowds.

Just want to get my toes in the water...

Dina loves the water....

...she'll chase a line of storms for a pic.

Pic of her in NY taking pics :)

And I'll add it's my daughter Dina's...

...one of her favorite songs.

She blasts country in her car....
..driving through Brooklyn.

So going with this song.....

Know one of the best pics I ever got in a storm...

..was with her chasing this line of storms in NYC.

She lived in Bayswater... JFK was shut down

The green color in the water was hail.

she said "mommy it's hailing we have to go"

indeed.........wild day and we ran.
so now you know ....

Back from Vacation at Yasgur's Farm (Woodstock Grounds) and Watching Genevieve (Beauty) in EPAC. El Nino in Charge. Watching Stalled Out Front for Long Shot

 

This really says it all!

Pacific busy in El Nino years...

...the Atlantic is not.

Look at that perfection!

Genevieve

a true beauty off the 2026 EPAC Hurricane Season.

This loop tells the whole story!

EPAC has Major Canes....

...the Atlantic has nothing.

You can follow the influence of El Nino by looking at the bottom left of the loop above.  Moisture flows up into Genevieve...then up into Mexico and the SW (it's awefully hot & humid in Colorado and feels more like Miami than the beautiful weather they usually have in the Summer. Then that takes an right turn and feeds into the next system. Hot record breaking heat out West. Drought is the signature in some areas from El Nino and yet in the East there is a building, Nor'easter that's going to take over the weather news this coming week. Cooler air will filter into Virgnina and North Carolina if all goes well and I'm praying that verifies.

Not saying there is no moisture.

There's an old wave in the SW Carib...

...there is also shear.

And an old front draped across Florida..

East Gulf has parts of it.

To the East of Florida has more of it.

Cannot rule out an attempt to spin...

...but low confidence.

As for where I have been....

...it was a secret until it wasn't.

Stunning weather and cool air.

Friends of my daughter and music.

Good food.

I danced a lot............

Regarding tropics time will tell...

...as for me back from the Farm.

Yasgar's Farm aka Woodstock

Never had that on my bucket list...

...but my daughter does the Festival Scene.

She does the Art and art programs.

She's known to travel ...

Rainbow .. PSF Gatherings.

I saw mountains.

Mountain Lakes

Winding hilly roads....

... cool air!

Low humidity!

I went as she was remarrying her ex-husband

I even camped out (in a big RV)

Epic event really.... 

old pics from previous festivals... 

...so I get the idea.

.. 

Interesting mix of all types.

You know the saying...

..takes all types.

Old but you get the idea.

Definitely not my jam...

...but my daughter Dina's jam.

See video below....to get a clue.

(music campsite shown there... few years ago)

So I walked my daughter down the ....Trail.

after riding a tram to the tent..then the trail.

Lipa Schmeltzer a huge star in some circles... 

performed the wedding with some Rabbi ...

That's me in my long brown silky dress...

blurry water color memories...

:) 

Lipa watching us walk in...

...her friends watching.

Ps no one knew the star singer was there...

talk on surprises.

No one knew they were getting remarried there.

They've spent many a festival together with friends.

So that's where I have been!

below he sings a song "Believe in a Miracle"

So I'm believing in a miracle....

...hope the 2nd time is the charm for them.

Life goes on .... now I'm back in Raleigh.

Will update tomorrow.

Back to my routine.

BobbiStorm

Do you believe in miracles?

I try to... 

I believe in dancing :)

I do believe we will have more named storms.

Today I'm processing it all and relaxing :)

Bertha Makes landfall Twice!

Bertha actually had impacts 

on many beaches….

So first off on the road and meant to post but didn’t. So just posting now to say Arthur made landfall and Bertha made landfall! Both did Texas. True both were early July storms. The 2 for 2 so far…Gulf is the friendliest place for tropical development during El Niño. And as I’ve said numerous times close in development often means landfall! 

Mother Nature seems to like Texas this year….

Any additional Texas Tropical Tourists could be way stronger so let’s hope for the sake of Texas that doesn’t happen. 

Also I’m going where phone signals are weak and I may be off the grid til Sunday. 🙏🙏🙏 I’m wrong but it’s actually nice to get away from the crazy Carolina and Florida heat this trip. I got out at à 7-11 and the air was dry and almost cool!! It was awesome!!

Will talk on it in the next blog. A bit of a secret because it’s not my secret it’s not my secret to tell!

Sometimes you have to go out your comfort zone. Unlike Bertha that tried to hold on like a child in a pool afraid to leave the side of the pool afraid of the deep! 

Being in a weather community online is awesome and allows me stay in touch with what’s happening when I get wifi!

It should be quiet in the tropics for next week or so…. unless a surprise pops up 🤷‍♀️ 

Will update some time Sunday 

Bertha apparently wanted to die and be buried in Texas! seems she got her wish…

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm