A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, July 17, 2026
Area Close In to Florida Looks Like It Wants to be an Invest. African Wave Still in the Water Swimming Lower Chances. Somewhere We May Get an Invest. Stay Tuned! Stay Cool!
This is the 2 day forecast.
Small li'l chance.
But in the 7 day....
...we are at 30%
The wave by Africa is down to 10%
would not totally count it out yet.
Let's go close in.....
Kind of impressive flare up...
....for the last several hours.
Clearly partially over FL
being fed clearly by moisture.
Long circlular feature feeding into it.
If Mimic was only working....
...would be easier to see
Earthnull shows nothing much.
But change parameters to 500
As there are many layers in the atmosphere.
It's always worth a look.
We do not go by 500 ...but it's a look down thru layers.
IR up close and personal.
Something gonna on....
...but must sustain this for a while. Before NHC makes an Invest.
But we may have an Invest over the weekend.
IF ...this continues.
I'm curious.
I'll update Saturday Night or Sunday Morning, depending if the NHC elevates it to Invest. I could show models but they are sprayed all over the place and they change on every run. It could cross Florida. Currently discussion it moves to the left and into the Gulf. Then models that show it makes a circle in the East Gulf and takes off or just fades away.
The next name up is Bertha. Somewhere, eventually Bertha will show up. As for me I'd be good with an Invest or TD or some nice rain in Raleigh to chase away the heat and lack of air movement!
Yellow Circles Still There. Horrific Flooding in Texas. GOES 19 Is Out of Order! Not Working. Needs Fixing. And Canadian Smoke an Unwanted Visitor to the USA
Basic Tropical Info.
Yellow cirles still there.
20% Close in to Florida
Small chance of development.
Either way a rainmaker at some point.
Keep watching.
Distant African Wave lower chances.
Currently can develop just a bit...
...but gets "less conducive" down the road.
Speaking of the tropical road...
...we have a road block.
They are working on the GOES-19 They are asking us to be patient.
Most storm chasers tend not to be patient.
But it is what it is.... so yeah.
Let's begin at the beginning.
Goes 19 had a problem.
Simplistically speaking.... it's been put in a safe mode... ...while they try and fix it.
Gary Stephenson explains it well.
He's one of my fav go to mets in the Raleigh area.
Updated! New Yellow Circle by African Wave 10% & Yellow Circle Across Florida .... 20% Watching the Tropics Again. Colorful, Moist Wave Off Africa Can It Sprinkle Some Rain on the Islands??
10% Our moist, large African Wave mentioned below.
As for the 20% area by Florida.
Not to see yet but models.
Area down by the Yucatan...
...being overly stimulated by a nearby ULL
Heavy rains over Texas.
Dangerous rains over Texas.
Please keep reading if you did not.
Will talk on models tomorrow
****
10 AM
And, just like that!
NHC wisely put up a yellow area.
This isn't it about a tropical wave or a area of disturbed weather that is already there... it is about the pattern, the possibilities and models tenaciously suggesting possibilities. I lean on the word "possibilities" as that is what this is and also as there are many moving parts to this particular yellow area we are far from knowing what the final solution may be and again that is because there are many moving parts. That sounds redundant but it's the truth.
And this is very Deja Vu of 2025 as the season began with many yellow areas of possibilities and models spun up various solutions. One group insisted it went North and then into NE Gulf, some implied it could pull more to the West (Texas always watches) and others said it could form once it got into the Georgia Bight between Jax and Myrtle Beach. Some took it into Perry (of course) and up into GA and the Carolinas. The actual X was moved around all around Florida. One of the joys of having an online blog it it's my own personal reference guide. So let's look back at what I showed about a year ago.
To be fair the NHC had a yellow circle up over many parts of the Gulf and Florida and models spit out endless possibilities and some took it left, some took it to the right and in actuality the final yellow X cruised around Florida and formed in the Georgia Bight. I talk on the Georgia Bight often, it's an important area for many reasons and especially relevant in the Hurricane Season as any area that cradles a storm while it's in formation stages protects it and helps spin something up as happens in the BOC often. But if a storm moves up that way or across Florida into that area the cradle of the Bight and the warmth of the Gulfstream can enhance both it's strength and moisture content.
This year we also have a strong Upper Level Low that has been down to the South as well as dipping fronts like Dipping Dots Ice Cream, dipping down towards Florida as they fall apart over the Carolinas yet leave a weakness in the atmosphere that if giving the right MJO assist (and that is possible) it can get it's MOJO going. Can as in a possibility not a promise. A definitely maybe. If you know Dipping Dots are fun but it's not like slowly eating an ice cream cone ;) cute but not real....
Back to the present let's look at the area in the Water Vapor Loop, our magical crystal ball that sniffs out things you don't always see on the colorful IR.
There are 2 Upper Level Lows in play.
Down to the South of the frontal complex.
You see moisture down by the Yucatan.
There's your pretty color :)
Oh look a beautiful tropical wave by Africa.
This truly is a beautiful wave.
Too early, too soon but beauty is beauty.
Hopefully holds enough moisture to rain on the islands.
The very dry, thirsty islands could use a wave.
The reds and oranges by the Yucatan.
The ULL nearby is tickling it... amping up it's color.
Does the Gulf Blob Get a Yellow Circle? NE Gulf ... NOAA Forecast Maps Hinting Loudly. Hot Temps in Colorado and Montana...High Hot Ridge. To the South, Close In... Maybe. Pay Attention & Have a Good Week!
I always enjoy listening to Mike. Old habits die hard, and some old habits are golden so not letting them go. Listening to Mike talk allows my mind to see possibilities in my head and think on Hurricane History and well all we are talking is possibilities. But, hey there are possibilities. Mike joked he's not talking on anything big, just a bit below 1000 millibars and I giggled and thought "I'll take that!" and that shows you the state of the summer of 2026. Just falling below 1000 MB catches our attention. Especially as it is in a "close in" an area that is favored CLIMO wise and favored in a developing El Nino.
As for El Nino I have to say any time I mention "El Nino" with a year online I get everyone's opinions. Again El Nino forms in real time, some years slower and some faster. Sometimes forecasts are not met and other years they are exceeded even in our wildest expectations. When I post a bit of the blog or an image from the blog, someone invariable screams out "That wasn't an El Nino" but had they read the blog they would know what I was saying is a picture doesn't always tell a thousand words nor the whole story. El Ninos do not start on a dime, there is no light switch...they build, they wane and they slowly fade away. And, yet elements of an El Nino Season are there before the official bulletin from NOAA and they continue to slowly hold a grip on a season even when we officially say "we are not in El Nino anymore" as anyone who has watched a pot boil they know what I mean. You can turn the heat off (especially on a electric range" and the water is still boiling and does so for a while til it settles down some. Nuff said.
Mike oddly just said as if he is reading my mind, and sometimes he does.... "in developing El Nino years the Caribbean is usually cut off" and that is true and more so today as wind shear is strong and it owns the Carib the way SAL owns the open Atlantic. July is not really such an easy time to get a tropical system, though the name Bertha does have some history. And, in the protective cradle of the NE Gulf close in to Florida, Alabama and Mississippi it has a chance.
Water Vapor from Tropical Tidbits
While I am showing Gulf Convection lingering.
I'm showing you here it's lingering... ...to the South of a Huge High.
It's hot and dry. "how hot is it Bobbi?"
76 at sunrise..... ....topping out at 99 degrees.
In Billings, Montana. That's kind of crazy.
I'll add "better there than here"
I need a break in the Carolinas.
Notice I am NOT obsessing yet on the waves.
Though Brian Shields "Mr Weatherman" on YT is...
...and so he should be as Trinidad & Tobago be getting rain. Even though nothing develops they get storms.
Even though we have no named storm...
...the Gulf Blob has been tenacious.
7 Day shows more rain. Note friend near Houston's backyard is flooded. She lost power yesterday. Just because it doesn't have a name..... ....doesn't mean it might not impact you!
Off the coast of the Carolinas.....
....close in along the NE Gulf pay attention is all I'm saying.
While I am looking for tropical possibilities, I'm adding this as a reminder to pay attention. Yesterday's very heavy rains in the Raleigh area and Down East towards the coast ended up with Flash Flood Warnings. Canoers on the Neuse River had to be rescued. Being honest, heavy rains were in the forecast but forecasts in this neck of the woods often are busted, it's worth still paying attention. All week oak trees and tall Carolina Pines have crashed into homes, fallen on backroads in the dark of the night that are only noticed when you crash your car into them. So pay attention tropically and locally weather wise as we in the South are back into our normal rain pattern late in the afternoon. Be it on the river in a canoe or out by the ocean when thunder suddenly roars, go indoors! Pay attention!
While there is no yellow circle yet.
This is the next best map to look at..... Official NOAA forecast.
Oh look!
Shows a Low.
Kind of closed, almost closed LOW In the NE Gulf, close in.
So pay attention.
Have a great day.
We are in the high 80s in the Carolinas today.
And yet my kids in Colorado are forecast to hit 97.
Any time we have an inbalance in a pattern.... ..Mother Nature is prone to try to shake that pattern.
Texas Blob. High's Grip on the South is Gone! Rain... Moisture in the Forecast! A Look Back at a Different Kind of Hurricane Season with an El Nino That Took It's Time to Show Up... Unlike 2026. Yet But for Dorian & Lorenzo Most Storms were Short, Sweet & Forgettable. But I Always Remember Imelda!
Let's start with the rain forecast.
Where there's much rain... pressures can lower.
Watching close in always in El Nino years.
Not expecting development....but....
I would not rule it out as impossible.
It's basically the ONLY area to watch.
NHC says nothing for 7 days.
They are the official line.
Also rain in the South means cooler temps.
A real bonus and crops need the rain.
The South produces much produce.
Especially when we get rain...
Texas Blobs.
I can't remember what year it was and I'll definitely look into it this weekend, but we had blobs in the Gulf near Texas constantly as if they'd become a permanent fixture. Sometimes when there are blobs close in over time the blob or an upper level low or trough can spin up tropical action close in. Again every year is different. This is early July. In early July 2019 looked like it would be a dead, quiet hurricane season due to an expected El Nino. That El Nino and the one we have today, is granted very different and yet still we see patterns. Blobs and Upper Level Lows swirling about. Deep tropics dead for now. Oh wait! As I am writing in real time it was 2019. That seems crazy as normally only one name we think of when it comes to 2019 and that was Dorian.
Ya know the year 2019 was an odd, interesting year in the Atlantic Basin and yet most people only remember Dorian. There was much discussion about a much awaited El Nino and preseason forecasts expected it to be a quiet year mostly. Articles such as "stick a fork in it" as seen above were way off when all was said and done. 2019 began similar to 2026 as there was an early A storm and then nothing for a long time. Then suddenly we saw formation fast in areas far from where the slow building El Nino that had yet to really appear was doing it's thing.
Oh look! Dorian, who had that one on their Bingo card that year? No one as you can see from the article referenced above. And, other than Lorenzo and Dorian most of the busy activity was made up of short lived, minimal storms that often formed close in or far away but everywhere but the Caribbean. El Nino DID stick a fork into the Caribbean as you can see below.
Lots of close in development.
Storms closer to Africa than Florida and Texas.
Short lived Imelda that formed from an ULL.
Short, small and yet caused much flooding.
Especially as the Gulf had blobs often ...
....and they were a bit waterlogged.
Cute little Imelda...
...big trunk like an elephant.
I talked a blue streak on Twitter and online in weather groups insisting that the ULL that was in the area and had been interacting some with other areas and was gulping too much convection and I thought it could develop and move North towards landfall. I was right. I read a water vapor loop well and understand these systems and that year had a lot of these sort of systems and Upper Level Lows. Imelda was short lived and forgettable unless you were one of the families who lost 7 people and or part of the 5 Million Dollar damage across multiple states.
While 2026 looks to be a historic El Nino and to add in there are other factors that may make development harder and I'm not just talking El Nino. But again we have time and time will tell. Do we get to the H storm? 2019 had the capricious Humberto. And, again as El Nino actually got it's act together it had Lorenzo way out there in the Atlantic.
Most of the ACE was from these 2 storms.
Dorian and Lorenzo.
This year is a whole different El Nino and yet there are similarities to think on. No, I am not saying we will have a close in Dorian, I am saying we have to watch close in for development along the E Coast and in the Gulf. Look how many named storms, most of them very weak, formed close in and far from the Caribbean. And, the Lorenzo types that were far out in the East Atlantic! But we could have a close in Dorian like hurricane, so we should always be prepared in every single as it really does only take one.
Never take your eyes off the tropics.
Never. Stop. Chasing.
Enjoy life, have a good weekend!
I can't promise we won't get to the dreaded I storm.
And I can't promise we will.
Every El Nino is different.
Every hurricane season is different.
Every person is different.
Some people are golden and memorable...
... like Donna and Dorian not Imelda.
The state of the Hurricane Season today July 10th!
Lots of moisture close in....
...is SAL really moving into the Gulf?
I always follow SAL patterns....
...with respect to future possible Storm tracks.
Note sometimes SAL forecasts are a bust.
In hindsight we know for sure what happened.
I would not call 2026 a Wipe Out.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
mostly weather on X
elsewhere depends on my mood
;)
I had a friend years back who loved this song when played on Oldie Goldie channels. He'd bang on whatever was nearby as if he was a drummer in the band on stage. He was fun to watch. So here's to him... time will tell how many names we have in 2026, if we get to the dreaded I storm ;)
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
