8 PM UPDATE EDOUARD Tropical Storm! NHC Raises Possible Winds in TS Edouard to 60 MPH. Tropical Storm Warnings Posted Texas & Louisiana - Some Thoughts on Dolly's Rements

Surreal couple hours with everyone online asking why it looked like an "eye" was visible at times, and yet it had not been upgraded to Tropical Storm. One loop and image after enough. In truth we did NOT need an "eye" like feature ....there are minimal hurricanes that never get an eye... but hard to believe it was not a Tropical Storm especially as at times on loops an "eye" like feature was forming. So we now have Tropical Storm EDOUARD!   Done deal on that one, coming in on the last few hours of August. It'll be curious what the 11 PM advisory shows. Ps note as Josh shows, this is not just an "eye" like feature but an eye wall like feature forming!   

5 PM Tropical Depression 5.

TD5 Looking better.
Spiral bands.
Obvious center
Consolidating. 

Spreading out it's arms a big.

Nice banding... 

s

Note they extended warnings in Louisiana

Tho still headed towards Texas.

Let's say the State Line....
...then inland towards Houston area

I can see it wants to do Dallas...but..

NHC stops the Cone just before there.

Truth is the barometric pressure needs to drop some, and when Recon goes back in they need to see real TS winds before they upgrade it to the E name. Not much to add as it's a wait and see situation. The NHC did say that they are expecting the winds to eventually be stronger and put 60 MPH into the updated advisory. Small storms, once pulled together as it is doing currently can become stronger quickly just prior to Land

all. This is a close in storm ....on MIMIC you can see the consolidation of the precipitation that will move inland. 

 About as close as it gets. Everyone in the Cone and area where this is moving should pay attention to all updates and expect surprises as what it is tonight is not what it was this morning. NHC taking it pretty seriously by upping winds closer to Hurricane strength and the old rule is you always prepare for a stronger storm then forecast...just to be safe.

I'll update later tonight but for not making hamburgers for dinner with onions & peppers fried with a bit of bourbon in them ;) and sweet potato fries so .... stay tuned. Note the important facts below.

11 AM

PTC 5 Forms

when I heard PTC 5 was upgraded.
This was the song playing

Can't make that up... Choosing Texas :)

As Close In as you can get!

Pressure is high, won't lie.

Close in, very problematic.

In Houston area problem is from 

FLOODING

remember that....

Harvey was a TS during flooding.

Tropical Storm Warnings Posted.

Interactive Cone below.

Shows timestamps...

And a reminder Louisiana has TS Warnings also.

This is called the Sabine River.

A beautiful area... prone to flooding in a storm.

Cities expected to have TS winds.
Cameron, Louisiana has a chance at 50 MPH
not a big chance but surprised me.

So while Edouard is chosing Texas...

... Louisiana getting some too!

Link below to wind probabilities at 11 AM

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWS

AT5+shtml/311455.shtml? wind probs

NHC says Edouard as of 11 AM advisory.

Advisory tops it out at 45 MPH.

NHC usually begins conservatively.

Good post on X by Ryan Hall.

Says it all...basically.

Models. Note not one makes it a Cane.

Just saying. 

Some keep it alive longer but we will see.

Super El Nino years are know by the plethora of short term tropical storms, often close in and often small in size as well. Small core, though they can have big impacts as the rain will fall across a wide area that has many bayous where small towns and big ones like Houston were built in. Ryan mentions 9 inches, could be more. NHC waited til this morning, when many who are very wise expected the PTC to go up earlier. NHC makes that call, so it's on the NHC and they do not take the decision lightly. Whatever what was done has been done, hopefully people along the coast were getting good info from local weather people and online. But in that neck of the wood people go out fishing and doing things and are busy in those final days of summer and well I sure hope people are prepared.........should the concerns on flooding verify. Nuff said on that, will update later.  Especially as many were paying more attention to Dolly's remnants. Regarding those remnants here are some models. Will go into details in another post should she look like she can make it off the North Coast of Haiti where I believe she is currently. 

Models...not as excited.

My thoughts.

Should it get into this area:

Then it has a chance.

note the 86 degree water 

Old Bahama Passage....

on North coast of Cuba is hot.
There's a spot... where Dolly can get her groove back.

But can she?

Regarding Dolly.... her remnants are out there spread across a wide area near Haiti. She definitely took the harder road. Reminds me of the Scarecrow in Oz where they had to put him back together again. What will be will be. Watching. I have seen crazy things in the region on the North Coast of Cuba between there and the Bahamas and seen many a system that looked dead in the water come back to life and seen many not. Then again her Remnants may have a chance further up the road so we will see soon.

While not looking great.

She is very visible still in some ways.

Convective ways ... for now.

Stay tuned.

Will update should PTC be upgrade to Edouard.

And with later info today that is relevant.

BobbiStorm

10:30 AM

NHC Forecast Edouard to form 

Edouard Choosing Texas 

will update soon

I do so love Zoom Earth....

97L candidate to be PTC

or Edouard should Recon call it.

(recon is out there as I type)

Listening to Mike....

..have to be somewhere this morning

getting ready.

NHC will prob call it PTC at 11

when I'll be out at appointment

My bottom line this morning is that this should get the PTC tag. PTC means POTENTIAL Tropical Cyclone.  We have all known "that kid" with incredible potential that did not live up to our expectations. Though we also remember that kid who early on had so much potential and he exceeded even our expectations. I taught school once upon a time, before being the Children's Room Librarian at the City Library....before getting stuck on the Reference Desk all day as I was the librarian least likely to go postal (they do) and tell a patron off. And, then I moved onto Academia and ran a College Library. I say this as ....I always wonder what happened to that cute little Haitian kid who learned English in less than 6 months here when no one in his family spoke English and got As .... always figured he'd go far in life. But you never know. TWC is in place in Houston, that's a good measure of the potential Invest 97L has for some sort of tropical weather trouble.

As I have an appointment at 10:30 I'm guessing I'll be watching on the phone at my appointment should they upgrade at 11 AM. Either way.............will update this blog later today with whatever info the NHC puts out eventually as the potential for an upgrade today is there. Either way the dangers are there with a name or without a name.

"ability to develop"

stay tuned...

oh wait. 

PS 

will talk on X Dolly remnants later 

check back later 

song then too

gotta go

97L in the Gulf 50/50 Chances. X Dolly Dealing with PR & VI Currently Once Over Open Water ... Might Be Interesting

 

Orange area 97L 

Yellow is X Dolly

The area in the Georgia Bight

(S of NC and North of St Augustine)

That whole area and down to the South 

is an issue...with or without XDolly.

Tho Dolly reforming would create questions.

Where and when she develops.......

..........should she redevelop

is the question.

I would not count her out.

Either way she may get a vote in what happens.

This area is a concern.

Close in and it can create dangers.

Will discuss that later.

  

another view close up

Looks more than 50% to me.

Would be Edouard should it be named!

I want you to look at this and remember...

...I said X Dolly has had 2 competing areas  

both want to be the center.

Also note 97L classic at base of decaying front.

Where is the "center" of X Dolly

when I say "center" obviously wannabe center.

the Dream Center... 

looks like by PR right?

Changing parameters on Earthnull.

Oh look at that......

Until she solves this problem....

she will be X Dolly 

But once up into the Bahamas.

Near Cuba... SW of Miami...
if she finds her true center...

...we could have a problem.

Either way RAIN is in the forecast.

Surprisingly strong in some places.

Going to just type a bit and say honestly what I am seeing and thinking. X Dolly is trying to come back from the dead. That happens in El Nino years oten so it's not a big surprise. The real problem Dolly has is that it still has 2 areas that are competing for the title of center.That is nothing new there as she had that problem with a name, but it is what it is and in a Super El Nino year you play the cards you are dealt. Hopefully the islands are getting some much needed rain.

The issue with X Dolly reforming is that whether she does or doesn't there's potential trouble on the horizon closer in to let's call it the Bermuda Triangle meets the Georgia Bight. Dead fronts always up the ante development wise and so we watch, we wait and we don't ignore possibilities just because it's an El Nino Year. Below normal in numbers and even the ones so far have been on the mediocre side. That does not mean one cannot, will not break out and cause Major trouble. We have seen it before and we will see it again.

Not sure if NHC will post some sort of PTC watch or warning up along the Gulf coast as most models take 97L inland towards Texas and parts of Louisiana as I like to say the Sabine River area. Writing now, will update at 5 if they blink and that would be good as the rain forecast alone could be a big issue there.

I'll also say the 2 PM discussion was good and leaves the door ajar for Dolly to reform possibly down the road. It covers the closer in area. I still feel there is a disconnect on the chances for 97L but hoping people know it's there and are paying attention. 

I'll update should NHC decide a PTC Cone and advisory is worthwhile and important.

I had a good day. Got some things I needed that were on my shopping list. It was warm out but not unbearable and I hope the forecast for 98 and 99 do not verify for later this week. 

Oh and I had a Pumpkin something Cold Brew with foam :) and it was delightful! 

Sweet Autumn Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

2 Days til September

Dolly's Remnants Want a Do Over! Would Not Count Her Out. The Fake Cold Front Is Dying & Will Dangle Over Hot Water. 2 AOIs in Atlantic. XDolly & Close In The Gulf

 

Saturday Night update on the tropics as the tropics have low level possibilities tonight, close in that really show more potential than any wave moving Westbound Currently. I spoke on this on Wednedaay and  Friday nonstop on X & in the blog as it's always been my real concern; the real deal in that during strong El Nino years it is always where you watch for development. Nothing more concerning than a well developed remnant that looks way better than any remnants I've seen recently. 

Round, head down ...quasi wannabe center and rolling, and I mean rolling like its Tina Turner not the country singer we all love and will miss. Okay, maybe she's wearing red high heels in this image but it's not the only image people should be worrying on. Whether she redevelops with her name back again or remains remnants someone is going to get a whole lotta copious amounts of rain falling somewhere. I said this Wednesday and Friday and here we are again staring at a strong looking remnant hauling heavy tropical moisture into a region where she could find a sweet spot. Check back my last few blogs and you will see I always said it was a close in concern and thought she'd rain on VI and PR more than the rest of the islands. Long term concern, less a short term concern. And here we are .......

I do so love Spectrum News maps.

3 squares on Mike's Weather Page.

Is anyone paying attention tonight?

Should this continue....

Going to be some surprised people soon.

Going wide what do we really see?

ignore new wave out there...

We see a fake front. A dying front

And I say that as we are forecast to have 90s in NC

High 90s after it passes through and goes..

flat in the warm waters of the Gulf

and in the Bahamas.

Where there is already lots of convection.

And you know what convection loves more than anything else? It loves more convection and any system with move away from the High and towards the lows that's the way it goes in the tropics. A dangling, dead front across this region is an open invitiation to an all you can drink buffet and I'll add this could be  a two for one as something could develop close into the Gulf Coast and down in the Bahamas and the interaction might be even more interesting. These are ALL "ifs" scenarios but this is basic meteorology in an Super El Nino Year as we move closer to September Remember and things in this area can surprise us if we aren't paying attention.  So pay attention. I'll name a few below.

Katrina.

Andrew.

1935 Labor Day Storm.

Betsy.

Camille.

Michael.

Each of these storms had their own back story and 1965 when Betsy did odd, strange things intensified quickly over the warm, hot waters East of Miami after she did multiple loops and turned SW on her way to visiting the Keys and dumping copious amounts of rain and some strong winds across the Miami area. Betsy was NOT "gone for good" as the Newspapers had said in their previous headlines. El Nino years often have stange loopers, wrong way storms and storms that reform close in where the environment is more friendly. 

Oh  look...1965 is in CSU analogs for 2026.

1987 let's look at Arlene.

Old dead front near Miami...

...then did strange things.

Hit Spain.  Longtracker.

Couldn't form anywhere but there.

This forgettable storm 1987 storm  ...

...pulled together in the Straits 

that's so typical. 

There's some crazy juju in those waters.

Let's do one more...

Danny 1997

close in development in the Gulf

crossed the USA and reformed 

or was renamed upon ocean fall so to speak.

Andrew almost was downgraded.

Bob Sheets wisely waited.

Sniffed the Bermuda Triangle...

... remnants of Atlantis

(who knows, being silly)

turned West (because fake front)

and rapidly intensified.

1935 Labor Day Storm...

offshore almost same spot almost.

rapid intensification

Michael didn't get going til in the Gulf

then went crazy on approach to landfall.

Camille was a wandering wave....

...could not pull it together..

and then close to the Yucatan

(another interesting RI spot)

it found it's groove 

the Gulf gave Katrina like support.

Mike says this over and over....

 what you see before days before landall

close in is not what you see on Landfall.

Bottom Line:

Be it El Nino or no El Nino tropical systems love the area from the Bahamas to Miami to the North Coast of Cuba. Something about the Old Bahama Passage that has some sort of juju and on the doorstep of Miami or Biloxi or Nassau things can blow up suddenly. Oh I did not mention Jeanne who was not dead also after her adventure to Haiti and found her grove just before you know where..........

then there was the original...Betsy

And lastly TS Dolly never, ever had a strongly developed center that was vertically aligned. Much like Betsy that had two centers competing for the real one, until the real one took over and then she became a hurricane to reckon with both to forecast and to prepare for once she found her destination.  Sometimes that's the way systems surivive shear and Saharan Dust...they don't have a one well defined, vertically stacked center to tear apart or to deal a death blow to they just keep bobbling along, doing their thing and when they find a spot with less shear and less SAL they can suddenly breathe, ventilate and vertically align close in over bathtub Hot water. 

Dolly always looks the same.

Easy to find.

Doing her thing.

Much like the real Dolly ....

... Hello Dolly

Dolly Parton

An original. 11:30 PM on Saturday Night!

And even without Dolly in the mix.

That area in the Bahamas

That dead dangling front needs to be watched

So don't eat all the Twinkies becuase

NHC killed off Dolly

Happens.

Will Dolly get the last laugh?

Is Edouard out there hiding, waiting.

Have a good weekend.

Way too hot in Raleigh as the lethargic front

is slowly dying.

cough cough

sputter sputter

Oh and Miami has a lotta rain this week.

Rain, rain and more rain.

could a named storm be on the way?

???

Besos BobbiStorm

He's to sons with boats