2023 & 2024 El Nino Years ... yet Beryl, Helene and Milton!!! ULL North of PR Headed Westbound Currently... Hot Dry Ridge Across the SE. Carolina Baking Near 90 Degrees in April!

 

Checkout that SW to NE flow from the Pacific.

Fueling storms in the USA

A wayward Upper Level Low North of PR

NHC knows it's there... 

..watching it slide West.

The RIDGE over the SE

Having a Heat Wave in Raleigh...

....hot and dry!

This is what you'd expect in June.

But April not too soon this year!

Misery loves company they say....

...we are having a drought :(

Continuing on with yesterday's theme:

2023 was an El Nino Year.

It began in January ...kind of..

tho Arlene was June 1st!

Arlene was a meager Tropical Storm...

...formed from a "non tropical low"

You gotta love "Naked Swirls"

Tho meager you can see it's circulation.

2023 was not your Momma's normal year.

An unnamed storm formed in January...

...in the North Atlantic.

Then.......

we had Arlene go the wrong way!

Southbound........

To add insult to injury...

..it caused flooding in SFL

But they had a drought like this year...

...so Arlene was a drought buster!

Too much all at once...

From Wikipedia below...

"Arlene brought 2–6 in (51–152 mm) of rainfall to many locations in Central and South Florida,^[67] including a peak total of 9.82 in (249 mm) in Lakeland.^[68] However, this precipitation was mostly beneficial, alleviating drought conditions along with other rains that week.^[67] The remnants of Arlene generated severe thunderstorms across Southern Florida, with wind gusts up to 83 mph (134 km/h) at the Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport.^[69] Nearby, winds caused the partial roof collapse of an apartment building in Pembroke Park, forcing two families to evacuate. Damage from this incident totaled $50,000.^[70] The remnants of Arlene also dropped rainfall on several islands in the Bahamas, peaking at 8.5 in (220 mm) of precipitation in Cockburn Town.^[68]"

Live water rescues... 

A good promo for the 2023 Hurricane Season....

...as it stated on the start of the season.

As in the beginning.......

...it shall be in the end.

Later in the season we had Idalia

Also in the Eastern Gulf..

More flooding!

Rain signature from Idalia above.

In this case it went towards the North...

vs the South like Arlene.

So know........

.... Hurricanes can happen in El Nino years!

Many forgettable storms in the Atlantic.

But no one forgets Idalia in Florida

Don't forget to prepare for Hurricane Season!

Simple message here.

Watch the news, ignore the hype.

Do what you gotta do ....

Just in case you get that one big Cane in a quiet year!

2024 still an El Nino

(again El Ninos are all different)

Beryl

Boom Boom Boom!

Hellish Helene!!

Memorable Milton.

Another wrong way storm... 

Went from BOC Eaat into the Atlantic

So don't count your "quiet Hurricane Seasons"

until the season is over!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbistorm

Wish the Hot Hot Hot was somewhere else...

...is what it is!

Maybe I'll sip a Ice Cold Hurricane ;)

 

1953 and 2023 El Nino Years .... Deep SW Carib Quiet But Many Storms Making Scribble Scrabble Tracks in the Atlantic! Landfalls!! Stay Prepared!

Hurricane Barbara

Hurricane Carol

Hurricane Florence

What do all 3 of things Canes have in common?

They were part of an active El Nino Year.

1953

NOT a Super El Nino.

But still .... El Nino

Fairly busy year.

Lots of landfalls.

Part of the Carib was shut down...

..few long trackers!

Sometimes El Nino years, that are not Super El Ninos, are busy with lots of weak storms drawing scribble scrabble lines with tracks that seem to trace the previous storm.  Again, Mother Nature always finds a way and when it works it keeps doing it over and over again! Take 2023 for example. 

2023 El Nino 

Note the similarities!

Lots of blue scribble scrabble tracks.

Deep SW Carib is kind of quiet...

Some landfalls.

Monotonous year to track.... 

...or chase. 

They all just kept turning at the same spot.

Tracing each other.

Not much creativity involved. 

A few ocean cruisers provided ACE.

And then there was Idaliah!

And, as these storms formed and got their names and began to make their move all the talk on social media began to explain why this was happening in an El Nino year. Okay, there were extenuating circumstances. Not your Momma's typical El Nino!

And that really is my message, aside from El Nino doesn't stop hurricanes from forming though it does redirect them! 

Every El Nino is different.

You can count on them like chickens, but the chickens often have surprises they can flee the coop and take off for parts unknown...

Time will tell.

1953 and 2023 both had El Nino and had similar busy seasons, though the SW Carib was fairly quiet!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

One of my fav songs Summer of 2023

Wave Goodbye to La Nina and Hello to El Nino!! Big Theme Today in the Tropical Meteorology World. 49 days Til Hurricane Season Begins. Famous Hurricanes in El Nino Years! Mother Nature Always Finds a Way!!

 

I like to give credit where credit is due and Jeff is indeed known as @WeatherProf on X and rightly so as he is good at explaning and teaching us what is going on in the world of weather. He brings up many good points in this post on X and if you're on X please check it out! I have a brother who is one of his biggest fans. 

Is a rare Super El Nino forming? This is a huge question people are debating today. Many believe it is forming and others are waiting to see and are skeptical. Either way La Nina is gone, gone, gone...

So say goodbye to La Nina!

Hello El Nino??

Going back to the video...

...he did a great job explaining this..

2 cyclones working in tandem...

...to funnel the flow East.

So many signs for El Nino....

...but few answers.

Clues... time will tell.

Another point I want to make...

Carib tends to shut down due to shear...

El Nino shear blows the tops off the Tropical Waves.

They fall apart vs forming into Hurricanes.

But not all regions are shut down...

Areas off the East Coast can be more favorable.

Old fronts and transitioning Upper Level Lows.

Mother Nature always finds a way.

Note the extreme heat this week in Carolinas.

This way too early heat warms the water up.

Raleigh flirts with the 90s.

Wilmington NC flirts with 80.

Two months too soon!

Florida hot!

Hot! Hot! Hot!

Warms up the water around FL...

Time will tell what happens...

...over the next 49 days.

But Hurricane Season is scheduled for arrival.

With or without El Nino.

Andrew was in an El Nino year.

For example.

Here's a list from Google AI...

...of memorable hurricanes in El Nino years!

Andrew 1992

Michael 2018
Alicia 1983
Betsy 1965
1935 Labor Day Storm
Idalia 2023

I will point out the point I want to make and yes I was redundent on purpose. 

Andrew, Betsy and the 1935 Labor Day Storm all approached from the East of Florida, and all 3 went into the Gulf and Andrew and Betsy continued on towards Mississippi and Louisiana!

Andrew and up over the Islands hurricane.

Hurricane Betsy 1965 up and over the Islands.

Labor Day 1935 Hurricane stayed N of the Islands

El Nino is not a promise of a quiet hurricane season!

Will discuss this in depth later this week.

Thanks for reading!

Remember stay prepared every year.

When Climo kicks in ....

...something somewhere forms.

But you can say "goodbye to La Nina!"

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps I'll say I hate this song.....

...with a passion.

But it came to mind while writing....

...so going with it.

Let's say goodbye to La Nina!

Many weather people love La Nina.

Oh well.... 

Famous 1835 Hurricane ... Miami, Key Biscayne, Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Roads Section... A Worst Case Scenario for Miami?

Aren't lighthouses beautiful?

Especially Cape Florida on Key Biscayne

Painted white after the remodeling....

....it stands out against the azure waters.

White pristine Beach.

Bit of sea weed...

IYKYK

Who doesn't love lighthouses?

Below is a picture of the book.

THE BOOK on Key Biscayne.

As a librarian in the Miami area who ran the archives for the City of North Miami Beach Library I got to play with books such as this one often, lost in thoughts and descriptions that carry you away as if you fell into a crystal ball that held a key to the past. I'm a 4th Generation Floridian. My family had a homestead on Whitehead Street in Key West just down the block from the Key West Lighthouse. Alas it doesn't  sit on the waeter on Smathers Beach and it's inland from the Zero Mile Marker but it stood watch over Key West for many years. The Cape Florida Lighthouse was originally built in 1825 just over 100 years ago.

Can you imagine the hurricanes it has witnessed? There are the ones that scrape along offshore and the ones that made landfall. The lighthouse grounds were under 10 feet of standing water during the 1835 Hurricane and it was burned down during the Seminole Wars. It's said to be the oldest standing "structure" in Miami Dade County.

What Miami kid has not swam or played in the shade of the Cape Florida lighthouse? If you know and many of you know and many of yuu have climbed up and looked out at the island, the ocean and the world beyond. The view from the top is stunning. Imagine being in that lighthouse as a lightkeeper during a Major Hurricane? It has happened in 1835.

Hurricane Andrew in 1992 smashed all the beautiful Austrailian Pine Trees down, flattening them with a bit of storm surge on the Southern tip of Key Biscayne. Below are two photos from both the 1926 Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Andrew. Alas no photos exist of the aftermath of the 1835 Hurricane a direct hit on Key Biscayne. They never replanted my favorite pines deemed "invasive species" and replanted with local, natural plants.  Below

https://www.miamirealestateguy.com/history-of-bill-baggs-cape-florida-state-park-on-key-biscayne/

I wish I had taken a picture the day I went for a ride with my brother, shortly after Hurricane Andrew and we stood by the closed off entrance of Cape Florida, all the pines flat like match sticks, a bit of scrub as you can see above from the website I posted. A few racoons played by the dumpster, hungry searching for food. I felt terribly guilty feeling terrible about the devastation at Cape Florida when I knew people had died and many lost everything they had in South Dade. But I felt terrible. Sick to my stomach. There I stood staring at the raccoons thinking this "can't be" it just "can't be" but it was...and it will be again one day.

Northern tip of the eye wall of Hurricane Andrew.

Just touching the Southern tip of Key Biscayne!

Let's look at that book again.

Below is quoted from the book...

...at the site I linked to.

Awesome site.

Awesome book!

"Although the historical telling of the Dubose family on Key Biscayne has idyllic features, John’s tenure as lightkeeper was troubled. The Collector of Customs in Key West was his immediate supervisor, and the two didn’t get along. Food, supplies and mail from Key West to Cape Florida were slow and unreliable, making life uncomfortable for an isolated settlement on an island wilderness, without neighbors. He requested a boat, which surprisingly, had not been contemplated for an island posting. John wrote a letter to a Mr. Pleasonton, the executive in charge of lighthouses: “… the situation of this light is far different from that of any other on the American coast. There is no one so far removed from a settler’s part of the country… where a keeper has to send so far for his supplies, cut off from all civilized society.” Some months later, he got a boat.

To be continued...............

El Nino. Patterns and Trends. Watching Friends Watch Patterns and Trends! What Kind of El Nino We See Is Everything...

 

This is a good example of "friends who I trust" as they use their words and supply images along with their thoughts vs "SUPER EL NINO COMING SOON!!" and that is why I took the time today to post this.

We look at research on ongoing patterns, trends that historically point to what we may expect. We don't look to glitzy graphics or hyped up headlines. We watch day by day the highs, the lows and where they occur as well as upper air patterns. We watch the graphics that show what is really going on in the ocean currents and we put it all together like a puzzle that will be solved in real time.

Signs do show an El Nino on the way.

What kind of El Nino tells the tale.

I'll be offline til Thursday Evening.

Then I'll be reading the CSU Hurricane Forecast.

Then we will see a lot of things.

Getting closer to Prime Time.

PreSeason... 

Mike's Weather Page...

...has lots of info if you search around.

Bottom right El Nino basics.

But often El Nino promises a quiet season...

...and often has tricks up his sleeve !!

Thanks for reading!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X 

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

El Nino is like Jimmy Buffet

Sometimes his songs will surprise you...

Oh the Games We Play... Counting Down the Days.... April Turns to May and Then..........Hurricane Season. El Nino? No Nino? IYKYK....

 

This is going to be a short blog post.

I was on Instagram.....

...after a very long day.

My iPhone actually died!

I never let that happen.... 

Note it says "Late 2026"

Details matter....

Cantore reposting.

Good graphic.

Catches the eye.

Catches the imagination.

Could we have a Super El Nino?

Or.........

...just a "meh" barely there El Nino?

I don't know. I've seen data supporting both and I could guess the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I have an odd relationship with El Nino, especially super ones. Take 1997 for example! It was the best of times and the worst of times. LOL the better sticks with me as I laugh thinking on it. If you ever wondered how tropical meteorology people handle a "Mother of All El Ninos" delivering a very quiet hurricane season? My answer will be 1997, but I'm not telling so let's let secrets lie down deep in the dark blue Neptunian Sea of Secrets. Oh what a time it was ....  

You can't blame chasers, meteorologists and weather people deprived of their favorite oxygen or perhaps we can call it their favorite addiction. We don't need a hurricane to make landfall, we just need one to track, watch, stare at satellite imagery and follow the models. True chasers need to chase. Won't lie but somehow, somewhere there are always opportunities. We obsess a lot. Sometimes we write funny stories and other times people go moody remembering the years we do not talk about ever tho the image is below.

And, in truth some El Ninos are illogically busier than anyone ever expected and break all the rules. Can't say, it's too soon. But when Jim puts up a JAWS like graphic the discussion online has hit my tipping point and now here I am blogging about it. It was a year most people pray for, but not chasers or trackers or well you know who we are if you are reading this....

Mike is ready to chase!

He has been playing with artistic posts on AI all off-season and I suppose there will be some funny AI posts IF this season is quiet as most El Ninos are ... well until they are not. 1992 brought us Andrew at the end of August, after a very hot, dry summer from hell in Miami.  The Mango trees were so confused they actually bloomed three times. Locals who know old Cuban Wives Tales in Little Havana told everyone "they knew we'd have a bad hurricane" because of the triple Mango Bloom. Hey, it's Miami... it's how we roll there.

This is also the 100th anniversary of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane. 1926 was NOT an El Nino it was one of the busiest hurricane seasons few can imagine........ hitting Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida every which way that was possible and sometimes more than once!

And if you are still reading this I will be very honest. I am tired of trying to think of what to write on and no I am not watching "SEVERE WEATHER" episodes highly touted as if it was a movie with it's own trailer about to released...........and it rains for 3 minutes in Raleigh and it stops suddenly as if someone turned the hose uff and the sun comes out again. We have a hard core drought, yet there are few AI designed MEMES on the drought that deprived us of 9 inches of snow in Raleigh due to the infamous "snow hole from hell" and zaps the rain away every time rain is forecast to fall. Pollen got MEMES but the drought just goes on and on and well you know what they say about drought busters? Okay, maybe you don't want to know.

I don't want to write about Severe Weather that's really not so severe.

I don't want to talk about hurricanes "Down Under"

I don't want to scroll through a parade of El Nino is COMING posts on X.
Yes I love the Northern Lights, but unless they are lighting up my nighttime sky I'm  not interested.

I don't want to talk about anything but hurricanes. 

It's April. Every day we get deeper into April. And, then it's May!

April 9th, 2026 the CSU Hurricane Forecast will come out. That's the last day of Passover by me, so as soon as I come out of my Sabbath like shadow I am in .... I'll be reading that first before anything else. Lots of reports are out, some good, some I'm not sure about and I traditionally measure them against the CSU report and a few from some of my most trusted friends. 

I had a small tooth problem last Wednesday and every Dentist I knew was closed for Passover or took the week off for Easter. An annoying molar. I'm not kidding. Maybe it was about Easter. I like to believe people are at Church praying but maybe it was March Madness.  If you know North Carolina you know. So I was put on strong antibiotics which bothered my stomach even though I took everyone I was supposed to ...  

I like Passover. Sometimes though Passover does not like me :( 

But I went to the Dentist today and I'm good! Medication was changed!! I feel great! Awesome. Normal.

And, I am blogging!!

You can read all the wild headlines and watch the flowing  feed of discussion on El Nino, but we won't know til we know for sure. That's the truth. El Ninos can be tricky, sneaky and unpredictable.

Been there... just ride it out and we will see for sure soon enough!

I'm thirsty for action. Hungry for the GFS to put out silly forecasts that we all make fun of...

I am really thinking on being in Miami for the May Monsoons, because I want to sit on my daughter's balcony high up in the sky in Midtown that faces West while playing with her Golden Doodle as I watch tall thunderheads climb high into the Miami sky! I want to go to the Keys with my brother and chase a line of thunderstorms with possible waterspouts down somewhere past Key Largo. 

So know I'm officially close to obsessing on the start of the 2026 Hurricane Season. 

Time will tell.

I don't want fake meat or fake fish. Winter is in the rear view mirror. Spring has sprung! Spring Training even started! People be talking on the NFL draft! 

Time to get real and think on what comes next. The real season. The mean season. 

Never stop researching. Never stop tracking. Never stop chasing.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X and where ever you can find me.

Late March, April This Week! Trends to Watch Re: 2026 Hurricane Season. "Rainy Season" aka "Monsoon Season in FL" and Fronts.

 

I know it's been about 20 hot minutes, but we did a fast road trip down to Miami to greet a new member of the family. Touch base. Wander around with daughter in "Midtown" which is near Wynwood and just across the street from the Design District. Miami has become like Manhattan, every few blocks is a different area with it's own unique name. That said, it's 34 degrees in Raleigh this morning, sipping coffee trying to wake up with the fake little fireplace in my bedroom! Fell in love with her Golden Doodle which is way nicer than my mother's "chocolate poodle" that was known as the Devil Dog by some...

Roughly late May/June.

June 1st Hurricane Season...

See the pattern here???

There are 3 posts on X I want to highlight as they have ramifications down the tropical road in the not so distant future. First let's start with "the Rainy Season" which is another word for "Miami Monsoons" but we say "rainy season" so we don't scare the tourists or potential new home buyers a way. But to be fair, the change in the seasons has more to do with the addition of moisture into the South Florida enviroment. Rainy Season comes before Hurricane Season for a reason. And, often we can tell much about where we are going this particular hurricane season from the "Rainy Season" so pay attention. Yes, it normally starts in late May, though it can start earlier or later. There's a drought going on so this has short term implications. There are things to watch for and I'm hoping to be "home in Miami" in May to see family and enjoy the May Monsoons. As always I show this picture from Wikipedia that is hidden in the "Climate" Section.

Photo from Marc Averette...

....yes looks exactly like this.

Or as the kids say:

"End of the World looking storms!"

Anyway what to watch for ......

Fronts? Are they still on the move?
High Pressure? Has it anchored itself in too close to S FL or is it missing in action?
Patterns of where the rain falls and how much falls?

Cold fronts still on the move can forewarn of an early Hurricane Season with generally weak tropical storms forming at the tail base of a stalled out frontal boundary. How far down the fronts are moving, can show where these tropical threats can form and traverse the state. Are we talking the Big Bend or are we talking down by Tampa and SW Florida?

High Pressure? If it's anchored in place and it's a "Dry May" there's a theory the high will steer storms towards South Florida. That's an old theory from Jim Lushine via NWS Miami and it's worth noting it's really in relative only for big hurricanes than come from the ESE moving WNW towards the edge of the High Pressure Zone. It does not cover weak but annoying tropical storms that form in the Gulf and criss cross the state.

Patterns are everything in short term weather forecasting and when I say short term, in this case, I mean the first half of the Hurricane Season.  You can see Dabuh is already watching the patterns.

He's not expecting a named storm...

..but he's in Pre Season training :)

A small reminder 

Down Under it's Hurricane Season.

Spring here is Fall there.

That will change eventually.

Old song.

Turn, turn, turn.

Had a friend who loved this song.

Tho here in NC the weather turns every day.

89 degrees

34 degrees

90 degrees

39 degrees

Anyway going shopping.

Big holiday this week.

Generally I am in "quiet mode" this time of year. After the holidays (Passover for me) I come out of hiatus and jump on trends, discussion and things you may want to do before Hurricane Season. Also, most of the forecasts will be out by then and we can compare and contrast thoughts on how busy this hurricane season will be.

As for the EL NINO question  ????   

How fast and how strong it is or isn't....

...will say much about the Hurricane Season.

Again if fronts linger as well....

...as that favors development in the Gulf.
or off the S FL coast.

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X