A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Will Nadine Form ? If So Where? Snow Fell Last Night in MTNS NC...PPL Sleeping in Tents and Their Belongings Strewn on Muddy Ground.
Let's start with the models.
Sort of basic. Westbound.
Some show it dying off...
..others show it doing Hispaniola.
See the one over Cuba??
Could be a curve ball down the road.
Ensemble models below:
Ye Olde Ensemble Models.
Always trying to please.
Some move towards the CAG system.
Some halt and fly off to NE.
94L been around a long time.
Many good Mets feel she's been a TD.
I can't totally argue that...
Looking at the radar ...
...there's a lil fly in the ointment.
That front lingering across S FL
Content Weather shows the front.
Blue is the front.
Blue skies, fresh air.
Stops and hangs over Central FL
The front is forecast to move thru S FL
and then ...move back up again.
See the kriss kross wind patterns below.
Clouds in GOM moving East...
I'm curious how this impacts 94L
IF 94L makes it here
and set up is the same.
Front digging down over East Coast.
94L under a ULL to it's N
(like a mini black fake Cane)
CAG has moisture.
Florida Straits
Models from windy.com show a traffic jam.
Moisture from CAG feeds up into FL Straigs
94L heads W towards that moisture.
But then.......
CAG links up, grabs moisture runs West.
94L gets grabbed and pulled back to the NE
EURO and ICON similar.
Truth is you can't ignore the reality that it's going to be harder and harder for a tropical system to spin into a nasty hurricane any time soon. Not to say something can't happen, but currently the tropics look more like early November vs a typical Mid October set up.
That's a strong signature.
Yes, moisture in Carib S of High Pressure.
Could turn coal into a diamond.
November tracks!!
I'm trying to be extremely focused and factual here today as I'll be away for the next few days and this will be the last thing I say about 94L and it's friend in the CAG ...as well as the Cold Front. This pattern is more like a November one and all we know for sure if we have a stubborn Invest that's come a long way. Looked better a few days ago but it's still going strong.
IR above, Visible below.
Still nice structure.
Convection in the middle.
Why this isn't a TD I don't know.
Not every TD has to become a hurricane.
So keep paying attention to any possible area that could develop as we are not yet done with October and we are not yet closed for tropical development! That simple. Can't rule it out, but with every day that passes and every cold front that drives down it's that much harder to get a hurricane going. But totally possible, not impossible.
I'll be offline until Saturday evening, things to do and there are plenty of people online who will weigh in with valuable thoughts! Stay well, stay safe and ever stop giving money or supplies to charities that are helping those in need in Florida and up in the Carolinas where snow fell onto muddy ground, littered with debris that used to be important part of the lives of those who died and those who survived with nothing else as their homes are gone or barely habitable.
We have a frost alert tonight in this neck of the woods. Out West there are survivors sleeping in tents and they could use supplies, winter clothing, blankets... endless list so find something and some way you can help, please.
Choose your tragedy ...your state and give what you can.
Nadine and Oscar. Will We See Them Form from Invest 94L & SW Carib Blob? Both Have Chances. Cold Fronts Moving Past Carolinas Down to Florida. 58 Degrees at 11 AM As I Write This Blog. Brr... Love It. Definitely They Have Chances... Keep Watching & Try & Catch The Comet Tonight!
Cold front top left!
Weak, wandering Nicole wannabe to the right.
Note high pressure above Nicole wannbe
Ps Nicole has a traveling partner.
Down in Carib ... Nicole or Oscar.
Depends if 94L does the deed!!
Nicole and Oscar the names up next!
Keep reading.
Remember I have a degree in English.
Writing... Creative and some Journalism.
So doing the forecast in poetry and prose.
Yes, there are colorful circles to follow, we will watch and see what they do so more on that further down the blog. Let's first discuss the steering currents and conditions they will deal with as they attempt to develop. There are equally stronger cold fronts that are sliding down...one after another... like strands of pearls across the South edging their way towards Florida. Invest 94L is trying really hard, put on a show for a while and then took a break when the NHC probably began getting interested and then took a break again. When Invests are in an area in the ocean that would seem wet as there is water there.... the atmosphere above it is dry still. As they inch closer to the more moist tropical islands they seem to perk up as if they smell really delicious Jamaican Blue Coffee in the tropical wind and pull it together with dreams of going far and finding fame and getting the best coffee anywhere!
The fly in the ointment is there are cold fronts and cold fronts do a few things: 1. They dig deep pushing high pressure down into the Caribbean. 2. They can pick up a developing storm and swing it out to sea into the Atlantic. 3. They can force the the storm or hurricane to barrel West until the high pressure weakens. 4. They can send a hurricane into Central America. 5. Eventually the steering currents collapse and if the storm is still there... things get interesting.
Who remembers Matthew's stall down by the coast of South America, totally ignoring land interence as ifi it wasn't dumping flooding rains on parts of the South American coastline? Finally, like Sandy it found it's way North navigating through the Windward Passage and grabbed the next cold front North.
Note while things like that can happen this time of year.... they are rare and usually only happen with extraordinary storms such as Matthew and Sandy. Stay tuned. Currently there are not tropical systems making landfall on CONUS (the US coastline) but we may have a threat to PR and the Virgin Islands IF it develops and keeps going the way it's going.
The SW Carib thing is at a yellow 30% and the orange thing is at a higher 60% "almost there" but it's friendly fan behind it is doing that thing that 2020s tropical systems do developing a blob behind it adding to jokes and threats to make a tee shirt with 2 blobs together and a smile. Mike asked if he should do that or... and all I can say is "hahaha" but any girl with Double Ds most likely isn't going to wear it unless really desperate for a guy to notice. Again, look at Matthew up above.... was bizarre and that was in 2016 so maybe it's a 2000 thing as I don't remember them doing this so often, but does make for jokes online and stunning weather art or as some say weather porn.
Okay........where was I? Keeping this Simple... right. The yellow jelly bean has higher chances of going into Central America, unless a piece it gets stuck behind and needs to be watched. Honestly, right?
The orange Atlantic cruiser that came from Africa still bears watching. Models are not consistent in the long game, while the short game is westbound or WNW and again the Islands need to watch it as does Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and I'd add Cuba. Florida will watch it no matter what but Flordians be digging through their closet looking for that strong cold front that's diving down.
Yes, true story.
Keep It Simple Silly.
So I'm done.
We wait, we watch and stay prepared.
In SFL we edge towards end of Hurricane Season.
I'm thinking there will be a curtain call of sorts still.
Invest 94L Has a Robust Circulation. Convection Trying to Keep Up With It. Models Short Term Move It West...Forms Close to Islands... Then ???? Stay Tuned.
Perspective is important.
50% in the 7 day. 10% in 2 day.
Models below show why we are talking on it.
Models are problematic.
So it bears watching.
First the models show it stays low, that's easily seen by watching Water Vapor Loop as high as to the North of it and just as an African Tropical Wave showed up in October so did the missing high Pressure in the Atlantic, go figure. Consistent right?
As it approaches the Islands the conditions are more favorable for development as shear should be lower (in theory) and the water is warmer and not as dry as the MDR has been. There are cold fronts moving down and it is possible it could get picked up by a cold front but it's just as possible it could continue West under any other ridges of high pressure departing cold front's supply. This is the long tracker the 2024 hurricane season denied many who originally thought we'd have lots of August and September African Wave Train hurricanes to track. Currently it's just an Invest, remember that and the area where it most likely forms has a ways to go.
Moving at a fairly rapid clip.
Trying to hang onto that convection...
...near the center.
IF it had more convection as it looks better convection wise today than yesterday, I'd think this would be upgraded to a Tropical Depression as it has an incredibly tight circulation visible on both visible satellite imagery as well Earthnull. I get it's far out, but this is one impressive signature as you can see below.
Only fly in the ointment is that little......
...pimple like feature to the SSE.
Hmnnn
Let's move down the road.
Clearly present in blue and purple...
...is cold front and high pressure over the South.
New cold front moving thru Carolinas today.
Down in the SW Carib is colorful convection.
In the EPAC as well..
The CAG is healthy.
Note Bahamas has moisture.
How low does this new front go?
Much hangs on this down the road...
..and the next front!
Earthnull shows the CAG.
Bit on either side of Panama.
Again this is one geographic region.
Land bridge separates it.
But influences merge often.
Bottom line:
I will definitely say this Invest is bugging me and I can't just write it off because "hey it's October, what'a a tropical wave doing there this time of year?" as we began the season with a Cat 5 Hurricane making landfall on an island that barely ever gets a Cat 1 Hurricane as it's got a sort of "hurricane shadow" much the way Raleigh gets a "snow shadow" and we rarely get snow. So a June too soon... Tropical Wave barreled into the Islands intensifying into a Category 5 on July 1st. Obviously, 2024 isn't playing by the rules. And, the set up denies fast intensification therefore it gets forced to the West to develop close in and that usually means trouble for someone, T with a capital T as in Tropical Storm then a Hurricane.
Can Hispaniola break it up? Sure. But last few model runs show it sneaking around Hispaniola moving to the North of it ...though it would still (in theory) put some brakes on development as part of it's circulation would be overland. What if it misses Hispaniola? That could be a problem. It could be lifted and miss the Islands as it moves up into the Atlantic and Bermuda needs to watch. Or.........it's a problem for South Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba. Any system that misses the Islands and moves up and over the Islands the way your typical September hurricane might do would develop over the warm waters in The Bahamas or over the Gulfstream or the Florida Straits and well you get the picture.
Again this all comes down to watching the front "ye older watch the front set up" and as it's October we do have cold fronts! If the front is deep it could just spin into the Gulf of Mexico or through the Caribbean into Central America. If the front is strong enough to lift it but not grab it and pull it up the East Coast... it could get tricky, much like the rest of it's 2024 Hurricane Siblings.
Ps yes I said "up the East Coast" and no nothing is screaming it'll do that but I cannot take that off the table.
So everyone's in it.
And IF anything formed from the CAG then that could impact future steering currents.
Stay tuned... Hurricane Season is far from over.
Lots of time to watch and everyone will be watcing.
Invest 94L vs Caribbean Blob. Everyone's Talking But No One Has Solid Answers. Gorgeous Fall Day in Raleigh NOT Wasting It Watching Models That Change Every Couple Hours. Bottomline --- It Has a Chance.
Let's start here. 94L
X marks the spot it is currently.
Arrow shows you "formation zone"
It can literally form anywhere....
...in that big yellow sausage.
Not a Cone.
Just a Zone of formation.
Remember that.
Up close and personal.
Look at that spin!
Beautiful structure.
Banding, nice center.
We see it well as it's "naked"
Phrase Mets use to mean...
"convection being sheared"
See the one little puff going South?
I won't lie this is one aestically beautiful swirl known as Invet 94L out just West of Africa and because there's a high to it's NE and then another one forms above it soon it is forecast to get way farther West than Kirk or Leslie even dreamed. That doesn't mean it's going to hit Miami, Tampa or New Orleans all the cities on the media parade of cities to travel to while covering a landfalling hurricane. Lots of fun and lots of attention but it doesn't mean it could not be an issue IF it stays alive and thrives and gets into our part of the Hurricane Basin. First comes the Islands and if it forms closer in to the Islands then it's a problem for the Islands and as we stairstep our way WNW or into the Caribbean we will wonder and worry if it could make a USA landfall. Bermuda will be watching too, trust me.
Positives:
Incredible tight beautiful circulation especially from far away.
Looks like the Cosmos in ways..
It's far, far away.
Negatives:
As it's blocked from escaping up into the North Atlantic currently if it gets into our part of the world it could be pulled North close to our beautiful coastline and we will need to watch. First it has to stay alive and prosper. It needs to keep it's convection vs losing it's convection
Let's go wide.
94L is that round green ball in MDR.
Close to Africa still.
So you must be wondering:'
"OMG what's in the CARIB?"
Convection.
Blob of convection being watched.
Doesn't have a circle even.
The video below addresses that.
Again...
When there's black to the North.
That's dry air, high pressure.
To it's West is moisture.
It's stuck down there for now.
A Blob vs an Invest 94L
If I was a gambler I'd say
"here's where you place your bets!!"
I'm not a gambler.
Neither are sure things.
So we gonna sit and watch....
watch satellite imagery
watch football
watch the beautiful fall colors
breathe in, breathe out
What's life all about...
Not going to waste my day...
..waiting on the next model run.
If you have nice weather.
Get out there and enjoy it!
It'll be gone soon.
Like the Northern Lights...
(oh my gosh I fell in love)
...last night just a hint of purple.
Then gone.
Til next time....
Faintest column of purple
Barely there in the Indigo Sky.
Have a blessed, beautiful day!
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather...
...Insta whatever.
If you know you know... IYKYK
Once upon a time there was a weatherman...
...named Dave Schwartz on TWC
He loved this song.
Sometimes he'd even dance for a minute late at night on air.
Northern Lights Last Night Dazzled Everyone Who Saw Them... Needed Some Uplifting. Rumors on Development in SW Carib. Watching. Please Donate to Reliable Charities for Helene & Milton Relief.
First off... It's not on the 7 day by the NHC. Yes, NHC has seen models. Yes, I have seen models. Something could develop but... ..signals mixed and weak currently.
As you can see in the beautiful satellite image below that is the one that will show anything if it's there as the colors are bright and beautiful and make every little drop of convection show best in bright reds. And, syes down in the SW Carib there's the area we are all watching, waiting on models to give us better guidance and personally waiting to breathe for a day or two more before jumping back in the ocean of tropical discussions on a possible new named storm. Being honest. If I thought it was a semi-immediate concern I'd be all over it here on the blog and on X. There's weather there and we are watching it. We are at that stage where models come, go, see it and lose it and spray possible tracks everywhere and mostly I'm talking ensemble models as regular models still showing a very weak system. I don't rely on models that far out and usually it takes a few days after a Major Hurricane such as Milton to leave for the atmosphere on many levels clears out on multiple levels, especially upper level atmosphere.
Also note the signs of the cold front in the Atlantic off the Carolinas, beautiful light blue dots in a sea of dark blue. Also note down below in the Eastern Caribbean there are colors of almost violet in the blue, that remind me of how the sky looked last night when the Northern Lights came out in the Carolinas and danced and shown this wild Violet hue.
We are moving deeper into Autumn, the windows are open here and it's freezing with the ceiling fan on low that I am slow to turn off. I wore my favorite black Victoria Secret's hoodie last night when we went for a drive to where it was darker to see the lights better and by the time we got there shade of blue and green mixed in as the violet went away replaced at times by bright Barbie Pink and then they dimmed.
Black and white above.
Blue WV loop below.
Isn't that beautiful.
Invest 94L is by Africa.
Short term curves, long term questions.
Keep an eye on it...
..while obsessing on Carib as some of you are.
Speaking of Carib
Purple splotch...
Nadine and Oscar next 2 names.
Carib has a purple splotch
So there's the Carib area.
Lower chances than African Wave.
But should be a yellow circle eventually there.
I'm not posting models as they are only until the next model comes out and there's always a model running somewhere. This is not rocket science, it's October... heading into Mid October and there's one general track they all take with various slight differences. Michael hit Panhandle of Florida, Matthew hit Carolinas and Sandy hit NYC all October systems that went "Boo!" in October. There are variations based on where they form and the currents that week so the map is below, models are within that guide. Generally GFS is bullish and other models not so much. EURO more interested currently on African Wave Invest 94L.
Sorry for any typos, allergies with eyes today is bad even with allergy meds and I'm okay with that as it means the weather is changing, it's cool and beautiful and trees are changing colors.
I'll be back on Sunday morning to discuss what we have and maybe by then it'll be a colorful X in the Deep Carib.
Bye Bye Milton. Wide Spread Destruction Left Behind Across West Florida Coast. Death Toll Climbing, Currently at 9 People. Thoughts and Taking a Rest Today in Raleigh
Note from day 1 the NHC was almost perfect.
And the area in there cone was hit hard.
But line in center of the Cone...
..shows how good the NHC is in 2024!
This is my "tropical update" part of this blog.
No immediate concerns for us...
Bye Bye Milton
I'm really tired, being honest. Being a "Miami girl" originally... I've got a lot of friends who lived in areas trashed and inundated by Milton's strong winds and storm surge. People love to move away from Miami but they don't want to go too far.... others moved to Carolinas during the great Miami Exodus (IYKYK) then moved back to cute, quiet little West Coast towns not congested cities along the Gulf Coast and so far all checking in are fine but much damage in different ways depending on if a boat is in their yard or a tree fell down inland on their car or just emotionally, phyically drained about to start the process of cleaning up and trying to figure out where to start. Power out in many places, Tampa Bay Rays Stadium lost it's roof that has been through storms not as strong as Milton.
Friends in PSL and Ft Pierce were especially hit hard with tornadoes they never thought they'd see out their backyard window in Florida the way you see them dancing out on Prairie but most people don't realize that when you get up into Central Florida the area is considered a the Florida Prairie and that's why cattle ranching was and still is big up that way. Wide open spaces, once North of the Everglades interspersed with large Live Oak trees and incredible vistas. Yesterday those vistas were filled with visions of Tornadoes dancing across the horizon shocking many, destroying homes and killing 4 people. PSL alone had 17 tornadoes in an outbreak we'd normally would see in Oklahoma or Kansas.
Will see soon how high the water was in every little town and we all hope and pray there were no more deaths other than the ones from the tornadoes. There were many high water rescues all night long across a wide part of West Florida and SW Florida as the area from Tampa/St Pete area down to the Charlotte Harbor area had strong coastal flooding, while Tampa inland had flooding from high rain totals as well. Police not even letting press onto FMB so horrifically damaged they aren't letting anyone across the bridge yet but they said they will soon. Easy to think conspiracy theories as it seems everyone does these days but they are probably going through a search rescue process to make sure people are all accounted for and making sure roads are structually sound. We Will see...who knows... time will tell.
As I said at the top in my post to my friend Phil.... I'm taking a tropical vacation today from dealing with anything tropical here in Raleigh where I moved after getting remarried quite a while ago. Blue skies, a light breeze as the Northern parts of Milton's circulation is offshore somewhere as seen below are making life beautiful here today. It's cool and beautifully fall like and I made a cold PSL (haha Pumpkin Spice Latte not Port St Lucie) and in a while going to make a cordatito but it won't be as good as the ones they make at Chocalada in Hollywood, Florida. If I ever moved back to Florida (not currently on my dance card) I'd love to live in the area near Hollywood Circle with cute stores and places to grab coffee and the beach not that far away but just far enough where storm surge shouldn't be a problem unless it's a huge Cat 4 hurricane as the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane did have storm surge pass the Circle (if you know it) past the railroad tracks quite far inland as that FLL Hurricane I mentioned. Chocolada makes fantastic cordatito and if you know you know... you know my brain doesn't stop thinking Hurricane History.
Tired. Taking a break.
It's hard to really convey how seriously we in the media online are and maybe more so on air and yes I've worked in the media and actually attend events with a updated modern "Press Pass" of sorts and we take it very seriously. It's frustrating to try and drive home a message to someone knowing it can save their life and yet they know what they know and so far no hurricane has ever caused flooding in their neighrhood until it seems Milton as yes their neighborhood was flooded and yes they are alive and people do what they do you can't get everyone to listen to you. You can't even get your kids to listen to you when you say "just stay home" during a tornado event because "Mommy the sky is blue and hasn't even rained and I have to go ...." and will not say why she had to drive to Aventura or why the other daughter decided last night was a good night to go to a program where she'd never gone to one before but was less than a mile from her house. And, yes I knew they'd most likely be okay and were but others were not ...not so far from where they live. Several people who religiously read my blog had parents who refused to leave their well built homes where they'd probably be okay but were spooked by Helene in NC and didn't want them "okay" in a home that would become probably surrounded by high water cut off if there was an emergency. And, to be honest people have heart attacks or fall from ladders during hurricanes while trying to fix that one board that keeps banging when the wind is strong and well you get the idea.
The one commonality in a Hurricane is parents worry on their kids and once kids have parents who are older they worry on their parents. Because we love and care about our family, friends and neighbors.
But...........meteorologists who stay online for hours answering questions with extreme patience as Phil Ferro does on X in every storm know the feeling of frustration that no matter what they say... someone, somewhere, someone's parents somewhere are insisting on "riding out the storm" in their well built home that never had any damage from a hurricane close to the water in SW Florida. While at the same time, then having to deal with people insisting you tell them the track of the next storm that has not formed and where it'll go and he's way more patient than many online I will say that. My response was basically "we will talk about Nadine later as it hasn't formed but we have a landfalling hurricane today, let's take things one storm at a time.
My family lived in Tampa for generations we have a huge history there in Ybor City, Hyde Park and the Tampa Bay Hotel where some of my ancestors had cigar stores in the lobby of what is now the University of Tampa. Tampa is called Cigar City for a reason and most everyone back in the day was involved in the Cigar Business. Milton hitting Tampa is as close as I get to having a hurricane hit Miami for me and I'm tired and grately my Miami still is the Magic City when it comes to hurricanes turning away at the last minute.
So taking a tropical vacation today and will talk on what may or may not come out of the Carib and Gulf of Mexico tomorrow...........manana as the old song goes.
Today is rescue and recovery, search and rescue and then while the Tampa Bay Rays figure out where they what they will do about the destruction of their baseball stadium. I'm going to take a walk around the neighborhood and look at pumpkins on porches and some beautiful dogwood trees that are actually starting to turn colors and maybe I'll be in Florida in November... if I get around to making a game plan vs just playing it by ear and impulsively hopping on a train or a plane or we take a road trip. Hurricane Season is NOT over but ...for today I'm just typing out my thoughts in my weather diary that I let y'all read and once making sure all my storm chasing friends are okay going to take a tropical vacation and rest. Exhaling...more information on tropics tomorrow.
Yes, the name Milton will be recovered. Milton replaced Michael when Michael was recovered.
Much love. Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X. X mostly weather and Insta whatever.
Again hope everyone is okay and hope we don't get any other Major Hurricane Landfalls again this year and even minors have their problems....
A little footnote but according to a NBC News headline as I just looked the death toll is up to at least 9 people and they are still going through the process of search and rescue trying to get to search and recovery.
Noon Hurricane Milton 145 MPH Winds. NE at 17 MPH Headed Towards Landfall in W FL - Tornadoes Everywhere Across Florida Milton's Last Surprise ..Then Storm Surge and Landfall. Stay Tuned...
Close up of Cone at 11
St. Pete and Tampa
down to Port Charlotte.
Clearwater and Cape Coral beware!
Anywhere inside this cone can get the eye.
Not just the line.
Line is a measurement to see how much it moved.
Impacts outside the Cone.
See the tornado below.
Milton's Nasty Surprise for FL outside the Cone.
And........in the Cone as well.
Day of Tornadoes.
Explanation on WHY Twisters above.
I told a friend online... "not really sure what else I can say today" and that's the truth as I think I've said it all having been concerned on people in the path of a huge Major Hurricane that will carry with it literally a dome of water known as Storm Surge into every bay, creek, cove, river and cute little canal where subdivisions were built to enjoy the beautiful Florida lifestyle and look out on the Gulf of Mexico or nearby marsh with awesome sunrise and sunsets but..... yes Hurricanes happen in the tropics.
Milton has been one long run on disaster in the process of unfolding as it finds new ways to surprise us with multiple RI episodes going fast from Cat 1 to Cat 5 and then he did it again! He dawdled a bit too long down near the Yucatan moving slower than expected and yet finally made the turn and then did rapid intensification again. A strange blob of rain has been riding out in front of Milton soaking, saturating the ground in Florida from Miami to Tampa to Jax way before rains from Milton will arrive and dump more rain causing more Flash Flooding as well as storm surge on top of rain that already fell. Gee doesn't that sound like the set up in Asheville when they got heavy rains before Helene that caused flooding from the French Broad River that was above flood stage and then as that system helped pick up and lift Helene North away from a direct hit on Tallahassee zooming up to the mountains of NC causing historic flooding and trashing parts of Georgia and South Carolina on her way to North Carolina. It was a 1-2 hit that made the flooding that much worse and now here we go again with Milton moving into an area that's had so much rain that my friend in Florida sent me a video of the grass swishing swashing with water below the top of the blades of grass.
Speaking of grass... The Everglades are literally known as "The River of Grass" and they covered a wider area than they do now and yet that area now is covered with cute lakes and canals in often gated communities out in West Broward but it is still low land and can flood fast. If you have shopped at a shopping strip out there this week you know it's been one big lake you have to navigate through to get to Publix.
Now, Milton has a new weapon in his arsenal to cause more danger and destruction as he's become a huge tornado producer and it's only 10:35 AM as I type this and I cannot keep up with the nonstop rolling feed on X of Tornado Warnings with various pictures of tornadoes along side the Interstate where cars are driving along thinking they must be in a movie but no ... it's Just Milton... "Impacts outside the Cone" that the NHC always warns of but everyone still watches "the Cone" ignoring the black line at the top of the Cone warning of impacts outside the Cone. TWC having a problem trying to keep up with Tornado Warnings and covering Milton's approach at the same time... they are trying. X feed looks like images from the movie Twister but in Florida not Oklahoma!
See black line? Believe it!
Radar....
every little red cell over SFL ...
...has tornado warned storms.
Cape Coral had tornado warnings.
Miccosukee Service Plaza below..
Milton swirling towards land in motion.
Notice in the loop how it's growing in size.
Width, Windfield expands as NHC said.
another look up close...
Doing that thing they do when the front grabs them.
They go WIDE
Windfield impact FAR from EYE
Size matters Wind Wise.
Larger area more injuries or death.
Hopefully not but Milton already deadly.
Storm Surge stays Cat 5 no matter.
A Cat 5 battering ram of Storm Surge.
On beaches, up rivers, into covers.
Rainfall leads to flooding.
Milton a mess of misery.
Chasers get an extra bonus...
...so much going on.
In closing.
What more can I say today?
1. Major Hurricane Milton on landfall, Windfield expanding as NHC forecast it would.
2. Storm Surge on it's way, no way to stop the storm surge even if winds continue to weaken.
3. You either evacuated if you were told to or you didn't, stay safe, prayers... send pics!
4. Hopefully if you evacuated you will have a home to come home to...
5. Tornadoes are literally everywhere and not talking "waterspouts" but Supercell Tornadoes.
6. Who knew Milton would deliver the Day of Tornadoes across Florida?
7. Inland impacts far from landfall, please "hunker down" stay in "safest part of house"
8. Milton speeding up as forecast.
9. Landfall Zone shifted South of Tampa probably but not for sure yet...Sarasota to Venice?
Models shown below tho where Milton actually makes landfall no one knows. Follow chasers such as @icyclone they are better than NHC For heads up on "landfall" as they converge to intercept Milton's core, his eye...
Models
Converging S of Tampa
Though a hit to the South...
...still hurts Tampa Bay.
Where ever landfall is..
..devastating flooding.
Bottom Line:
As I said in previous blog posts you can read "you gotta do what you gotta do" that means evacuate, hunker down and find safest place in your home to ride out Milton and that means least windows, maybe a bathroom.. most interior room. Keep your supplies near you, especially first aid. Crayons for kids. Keep phones fully changed, stay off of them ...text don't talk......speaking of conserving things stay home and don't waste gas. Battery powered radios or crank radios will be your lifeline to the world if you lose power and trust me many will lose power and the infrastructure is already stressed from Helene not Milton.
Storm Surge... can't go there as I have said it over and over. Your home could be cut off because some small bridge into your neighborhood over a canal or river floods or worse......you can be stranded from 911 services in the way a home in East NC was cut off during the violent No Name Storm with a warm core, 70 MPH winds and 20 inches of rain and the fire truck got there but the road was washed out and they had to watch the house burn down from a distance... heartbreaking for the family who did get out and their friends and fireman who wanted to help but could not as the road into the area washed out.
Stay safe. Be Wise. Stay home. Stay informed.
Watch out for Supercell Tornadoes ... and Storm Surge and things that go bump in the night from the wind.
Leaving a video here instead of a song below ... Mike from Mike's Weather Page talking on his regular broadcast Morning Brew before he gets busy with Milton and yes he will be chasing and yes he sent his wife and daughters to Tallahassee to be far from Milton.
Prayers for everyone in Florida today...
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever...
Pround to be up there on top.
Mike loves Florida and especially loves that part of Tampa where he lives in a suburb called Oldsmar. Why is that important someone asked online? Because everyone there lives in some little community they love across Florida... around Tampa Bay and down towards Sarasota and there's a heavy realization today that depending on Milton's final track towards landfall with it's associated strong hurricane winds, storm surge, flooding, tornadoes and severe weather in bands as it moves across Florida......Milton will take someone's paradise away, their beautiful home near the water where they love to sit in the late afternoon waiting to watch the sunset. You can hear the tone in his voice and there's a poignant tone. He really doesn't "love" hurricanes as some storm chasers do in their way he grew up watching, worried and made a site to help others stay informed on the storm. He messaged me one day years ago saying "putting your blog on my webpage" I said thinking "ummm" "Okay, thank you" and that was in the early days as I cannot, will not tell you how far back I've known Mike but we both started our sites in 2004, oh what a year that was... Never heard him sound this way ....as he did today. Maybe during IRMA but no quieter and focused and thanking people and asking them to stay safe.
Prayers and hopes as well and thanks for being here.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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