Catching Up With CSU 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast... A Look at the Analog Years. Do You Remember 1999?

Just wanted to add here first.......

....recently was in Colorado and saw CSU.

Took this pic going into Boulder!

After hearing about it for years.

Wild to be out there.

Love Colorado, open sky and winter.

CSU landlocked in colder weather....

...specializes in tropical forecasting.

Got to love it.

Numbers below....

First and foremost...2025 Hurricane Season.

CSU report came out as you can see above.

Busy, but not quite as busy as 2024.

Close. Above Average.

Whatever average is anymore?

Strong possibilities some make landfall.

And that is really what's important.

We can talk numbers all day...

...but at the end of the day.

How many make landfall?

And where do they make landfall?

There has been much talk on the Gulf.

Tho whole USA coastline 51% chance.

So don't focus on one area.

Some say Mid Atlantic and NC.

Florida always watching...

Time will tell!

1999 is an analog year.

Something else to remember is as much as we focus on Major Hurricanes often ...the truth is sometimes you can have a small Major Hurricane hurricane such as Bret that was a Cat 4 in Texas in 1999 that made landfall in an area with a small population. That said .....7 people died and it did do damage in South Texas, but less than had it slammed into Houston or Galveston or New Orleans or Mobile. In 1926 a large, slowing moving wet Cat 4 Hurricane roared and slammed into the young city of Miami at the height of the Roaring 20s and the death toll was always a moving target and still is and may never be known for sure. I'd like to think if it happened today Miami would be prepared, but I'm not so sure as it's been a while since downtown Miami was hit dead on by a Cat 4 and oh ........that would be 1926 exactly 99 years ago. Worth remembering that a large, slow moving wet hurricane can pound a city harder than a fast moving small hurricane such as Andrew that ripped apart the Homestead area far to the South of Miami and yet spared Miami the worst destruction. Had Andrew been a much larger hurricane it's hard to believe this but seriously it would have been so much worse across a wider area. As bad as Andrew was it sped through farmland, nurseries and parts of the Everglades. 

My point here is that all Majors are not equal and many Major hurricanes intensify out in the middle of the Atlantic and dance their way North bothering no one but ships at sea that need to adjust for it. 

I've never been one that gets into the whole "15, 7 and 4" and how many ACE days will we have when it's April as we are not yet sure of what conditions we will be dealing with this coming Hurricane Season. I do love reading the CSU report for other information and I love comparing it with the updated one that will come out on June 11th. Between now and June we will see what really is evolving vs what models are trying to forecast and early season forecasts often miss the subtle nuances that make or break a forecast.

I love the geographical data, maps and analog years. So let's look at the Analog years shown below.

1996 was a mess for Carolinas.

3 storms visited the same area ...

...busy year.

1999 as I mentioned Bret was that year.

Chose Bret not because the year was important.

It was an interesting Cat 4.

Again location is important.

Busy year but most stayed out at sea.

NC in it as well.

2006

Quieter year... many out at sea.

2008 Busy.

Horrific for Haiti 

Sat Image below tells the story.

Gustave was an evil star player.

Destructive path, multiple landfalls.

2011 

A lot of ocean cruisers!

2017.......

Really we do not want to discuss 2017.

No more 2017s!!

Again location is everything.

Caribbean and Florida under the gun!

Texas will never forget Harvey.

Every hurricane season is similar in some way to a past season and totally different in other ways. Busy year, quiet year or an in between year what matters is track and location of landfall. Location is everything. We have had busy season with beautiful spinners that stayed out at sea. Hurricane Danielle out in the middle of the Atlantic is a good example. Danielle was in 2010 but it's a good example of a dangerous storm that danced in the Atlantic!

Earl later that year also traced the coastline.

Let's hope all Major Hurricanes stay out at sea...

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Not everything is as it seems.

Forecasts are merely forecasts.

El Nino

LA Nina

Neutral

What will we have in August?

Time will tell.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

mostly weather on X

elsewhere ...who knows..

Who remembers the summer of 1999?

I do  ;)

Let's takes a trip back ...

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

62 Days Til Hurricane Season - Severe Weather and Possible Tornadoes Today in the South. Seasons Sliding Along. Only A Matter of Time...

 

Starting with this story this morning as it's very tropically relevant! When Florida warms up and the temperatures flirt with and actually get into the 90s......you have to know the water is warming up around the tropical peninsular as well and that means the Gulf will be getting hot as we head into the Hurricane Season. Florida has had a fairly nice winter, but that switch has been flipped and after the first week of April it'll be hard to see cold fronts move through with much energy. And, then the heat sets in......

Pretty map.

Note the sliver of orange sliding into the Gulf.

Lots of warmth in the Caribbean Sea.

Slowly that dome of heat edges North.

Mike has sea surface temperatures on his site.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

As we March through April into May.

We watch for water warm enough....

...to support pre season activity.

At least 2 people are dead from tornadoes...

...that slammed into the center of the USA

Today the severe weather moves East.

Carolinas, Georgia are all on watch.

In truth the local weather has been playing this weather up all of last week as if there was a hurricane about to make landfall on Monday. We are finally at Monday and the maps for today's Severe Weather Outbreak are below. Brad Panovich is a Carolina treasure and I'd say people on both sides of the state line follow him carefully when weather looks to be a news story.

So we will see what we will see. It's that simple when it comes to Severe Weather as it forms in real time and where that line may form a bow echo is the whole story that evolves in real time. As always only time will tell, but the word is out and I'll add aside from Severe Weather expected in certain areas there's many other areas that may get flooding from copious amounts of rain with this system. When it rains it pours indeed! 

Sweet Tropical Dreams

62 days til Hurricane Season - basically at the 2 month line.

So start looking through your lists and supplies and fill in what you need when things are on sale.

Easier to spend a little here and there when things go on sale or pick up one thing extra at the Dollar Store  then having to spend the rent money when you are finally in the Cone and have watches and warnings up!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather. Elsewhere whatever.

 

Pine Pollen Storm....... Severe Weather Monday?? 64 Days Til Hurricane Season......

 

From a Meme online but yes.........

....my backyard looked like that today!

I went out onto the deck....

I thought "wow it's windy"

All of a sudden there was smoke....

..."yellow smoke" and then

I thought "ohhhhhhhhhh"

Ran back in the house and.....

..... slammed the sliding glass door!

Only remember seeing it that bad once before.

I think it was after the Polar Vortex.

Seriously like thick yellow smoke!

The before picture is below....

I keep the Jewish Sabbath, offline no taking photos as it's my rest day so I'll post the feed online today from people here ranting on the Yellow Pine Pollen that popped. People say you can't predict when it'll pop but if you have lived here long enough and know the weather forecast ....trust me between the hot temperatures and the strong winds forecast for this morning .......trust me I knew it would pop and it did. It's supposed to rain with wicked weather on Monday, which'll make those beautiful yellow patterns in the puddles that I enjoy watching like Mother Nature's Yellow Lava Lamp.  

People were posting about it today...

And Speaking of Yellow.........

Our hazard map is politically correct!

We will see what we get late Sunday and Monday. Tonight I'm watching Mrs Doubtfire and that's a big deal that I can watch it and laugh :)  #IYKYK ...

It's good to laugh. I can even laugh at the pesky pine pollen. 

One more thing checked off the list of things that happen........before Hurricane Season! 

So enjoy the pollen in the Carolinas! Generally no one dies from the Pine Pollen! You don't have to prepare for it other than throwing sheets on your lawn furniture for a few weeks. No homes are burned up from the pollen as we've seen from fires. As things go it's just a pesky yellow mess that taunts the newbies who were never told about it when they were moving to Raleigh!

It's March still.

64 days til Hurricane Season.

I have a feeling............

...Carolina will see yellow circles and Cones.

So prepare......

...when you see a sale on batteries.

Stock up!

Sweet Yellow Dreams...........

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

 X mostly weather.

Other places whatever

Spring.......yellow tulips, buttercups!!

Monday - Cold Front On the Move. Still March Filled With Lots of Conflicting Weather. Severe Weather. Solar Storms. Cold Fronts. No End to Storms....

 

The Lows look like linebackers!

Offensive Line? 

I'm in a football state of mind.

In Charlotte this week and Charlotte is where the Carolina Panthers rule and I'm thinking on football! Waiting for the rain to end and for the cold front to slide through before taking a long walk around. It's gray like Seattle today here in the city with domed buildings and fountains everywhere.

Solar Storms have stolen some of the weather headlines this week. You can follow the person below if you are into watching Solar Storms. Note I didn't pay much attention until I saw the Northern Lights in Raleigh recently and I am a bit obsessed. I really hope to see them again either here or Up North somewhere! Life changing........really. But it's still March...........no snow, no tropical systems and no football......truly my mean season.

During the off-season we watch whatever storms there are be they tornadic or on the sun! March does deliver Severe Weather in the Plains and Dixie Alley and snow up where it belongs in March.

There's also an eclipse coming up.

Over Europe. Hmnnn.

England?

I do love maps.

There's not a lot to talk about tropically, though many have begun to wax poetic on possibilities this hurricane season. CSU puts out their first report on April 3rd and I'll make that the official kick off of PreSeason for the 2025 Hurricane Season!

DaBub pointing out the obvious.

But to many not so obvious.

Which is why he points it out.

Change is in the wind....

After April begins!

You should look up www.crownweather.com

He's doing early discussion on 2025.

He's worth subscribing to....

He has put out analog years recently.

"They are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 & 2021" are his analog years for this current season tho that often changes in real time. Personally going to do some research on those years later that week. I enjoy studying Analog years. 

Crown Weather is very good with early preseason analysis that often verifies in multiple ways. I believe he went to BlueSky when I wasn't looking. I'm on X. It's not a political statement, it's a lazy statement and there's a limit to how many places I wish to be. If I could go back to MySpace I would as I met Larry Cosgrove there and he's one of my favorite people both with regard to weather and music. More on his thoughts in later posts this month. As Hurricane Season begins I will most likely post in both places as well as continuing here with my old fashioned blog aka weather diary.

If you subscribe to Crown Weather (always good to support those you appreciate) you will see a discussion on areas that he is most concerned on and they tend to be Atlantic systems in that he's watching Carolinas up to NE and the NE Caribbean as areas he is currently concerned on. As always the GOM lights up early and late in the hurricane season as it heats up faster than most areas out there. 

That's it. 

Oh.......there's also Fire Storms and Fire Weather but it's sad and depressing and I really do not want to discuss that weather other than be careful out there when the air is dry and the winds begin to blow!

It's still off-season for me until April and so til then I jump on and off to blog depending on what's going on.

Cold fronts, Severe Weather in the South.

Thriving Cold Fronts in the North.

Odd clusters of color SW of Africa.

Could the Hurricane Season start early?

Sometimes it starts off the SE Coast ....

..at the base of a late season front.

Or in The Gulf near the Yucatan.

Stay tuned............

........it's never too early to prepare!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather.

Insta whatever.

Bluesky whenever lol

Always at www.bobbistorm.com 

Ps I didn't mention Yellowstone did I?

Nevermind...........

A look at Old School JB

A song that haunts me a bit...

Spring Equinox - What Kind of Storm Does It Deliver? Depends Where You Live....

Winter is not done with the USA yet!

Elevation is really everything in the South and areas closer to the Piedmont and the Mountains are cooler and down closer to the coast it feels knee deep into Spring as temperatures flirt with the 70s and 80s. Every new front is weaker and yes it cools us off at night, yet by Noon we are peeling off the layers. 

Spring can be kind or mean. And, in the month of March it often leans on the mean. Severe Weather in the Plains and the Dixie Alley produces tornadoes. It's that simple. 

Trees are budding and people are excited to see the flowers pushing up from the ground, yet not so happy when the Bradford Pear Tree showers their cars with beautiful white petals. I'm a fan! The first time I came to Raleigh was in the 3rd week of March. The city was decorated with beautiful white flowers on trees and daffodils and tulips placing pops of color along the walkways and it was incredible. We went to Wrightsville Beach on a day when it was 80 degrees. A day later a cold front went through and the day after it actually snowed a little. Locals call Raleigh bipolar weather wise as you never know what you are going to get unless it's July or August or January or February. March is March Madness indeed!

Talking on Raleigh as I was away in Miami and Hollywood Florida last week and while it was fun to be "home" this really is also "home" so I guess I have two homes. 

It's supposed to rain today, maybe some thunder. Also Raleigh is a good example as you can see by looking at the graphics below that there isn't a 30s in sight. Daytime weather seasonable Spring.

The Bayou warms up.

Tampa and Miami heat up.

Raleigh and the rest of the South...

..warms up slowly when it's ready!

Rollercoaster weather at times.

Chicago has snow on the ground....

According to Google....

...Spring began an hour ago!

So I blogged!!

I've been sick.

Getting better.

Watching the weather!

Taking meds. 

Sipping Tea.

Being me!

Thinking on Hurricane Season.

73 days away.

Talk on that soon!

Sweet Tropical Dreams.....

BobbiStorm

Yellow Circle in March. 10% Chances.... Out in the Atlantic

 

A large area of clouds with a curvature appearance is out in the distant Atlantic. The NHC put up a 10% "yes we see it" yellow circle. While it does get the heart racing while we're remembering it's only 76 days til Hurricane Season and if you want to say there may be a named storm in May it's way less than that. 

Just marking time and mentioning it. On the road in Georgia for the night. Seriously resting. Caught something either the kids had or the grandkids had and to be honest everyone in South Florida seems to be couuhing. Most blame it on the mango pollen? Who knows.... 

Not expected to develop as per NHC...

See the frontal boundry?

It's crispy cool in Savannah.

And, our large area is a ....

Non tropical Low

So there you go!!

Stay tuned and always be ready....

...never surprised by random lemons that pop up.

Especially in that area of the Atlantic this time of year.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

 

Random Thoughts on the Pattern... System off SE Coast......... Just Smile............. March It's a Long Month Soooo Pace Yourself!

 

Some fast thoughts........

...on the system off the SE Coast.

Fun to look at on satellite imagery.

Off the coast and moving away.

As the sun comes up....

...it illuminates the structure.

On Tropical Tidbits we watch in motion.

See the low off the coast... old front.

See moisture in the ITCZ

Shear there will blow it away

But still .......what's it doing there in March?

March is that sort of month that some people love and others hate. They have no more patience left for Winter to leave and for Spring to totally spring and for temperatures to flirt with the 80s in places where it slip slides, up and down every few days making many people sick and others just annoyed.

In like a lion.............................................................out like a lamb.

Takes a while, it's a long month with 31 days!! We aren't even halfway there.

As we turn the calendar to April the Tropical Weather community comes alive. Currently I hear crickets as many tweet out their thoughts, post their thoughts and send out emails with preliminary thoughts. Personally I wait until April. 

But.......it's an interesting set up currently. 

Will see we are at tomorrow. Take it day by day in March ;)

Is Mother Nature teasing us with a trailer for a tropical movie that's almost ready to be shown in all our tropical theaters?   Will see........soon nuff!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather and elsewhere whatever...

Ps....I'm not the only one watching the set up........

Nothing like an Oldie Goldie...

...for a golden ole long term friend ;)

***

Double dipping here...

...another great smile.

Like a wink and a smile........