A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Pacific Hurricane Force Low Pounding NW Coast. Half a Million & Climbing Without Power in Seattle Area & It's Only Just Begun... Snow Storm in Updstate NY, Ohio Valley. FL Getting Rain Like the Models For Sara Suggested!
No that's not AI generated.
It's a wind filter on Windy.com
Literally has an EYE
Putting this into perspective going wide.
So no the Hurricane Season isn't over, it's just relocated globally to a different area. Some call it a Bomb Cyclone. Looks like a SuperStorm to me.
Whatever it is.......it's producing Hurricane conditions, pounding rain and much destruction across a wide area of a city that is synonomus with some of our largest Tech Companies; been there and half the people I meet work for a large Tech company and currently power is out across a wide area.
No that's not a teddy bear....
Over half a million and climbing without power.
Akin to Rapid Intensification...
...in real time.
Breaking records
Cannot tell you how much I love Seattle, loved it from the start and I know this map well. The reason someone could be sleepless in Seattle is because it has the best coffee, tea houses, donut shops and a wide array of places to go at all hours of the night including Speakeasy Bars that'll make a perfect drink for you after listening to what you like in a drink...voila! And, then you can get delicious donuts walking home. It's one of those cities similar to Miami that shines at night, lights up at night and yet during the day we tell the weather by if "The Mountain is Out" meaning it's clear and then you stare at Mt Rainier.
Sooooooooo yes that happened or rather it IS happening.
On our side of the world closer to the Atlantic Basin parts of the country are looking forward to a taste of winter and maybe enough rain to put out the wildfires.
Elevation matters....
As for the Atlantic Basin...
Regarding the Sara debacle...the models did show the story but lost something in translation.
Modeling isn't perfect but modeling sniffed out the set up and the weather and while Sara didn't form a core that stayed in play vs shuffling inland westbound into Central America... still the model images of a moisture trail connected down to the Yucatan did verify! I've said this before, with long range modeling often a model verifies in some way but not the way we expected it to. And, some of Sara's DNA is wrapped up now in the flow into the front that's raining from Florida up the coast to where I live... where't it's raining as I type this blog.
In ways the models verified!
Lastly a bit of Weather History.
Weather Historians don't get enough credit.
And, I consider myself one...
Cary Mock mentions 1878 El Nino.
Historic Wxr event out West ...
...and elseshwere.
1878 Hurricane Season.
Lots of landfalling storms.
Winter Storms.
You can read up on it...
...in the link below.
Year without Winter...
..due to Epic El Nino.
No El Nino now but .....
...hey we have epic weather.
Have a wonderful, amazing day finding ways to be happy and taking some time for yourselves to soak in the changes in the seasons going on around us...
Sara Stuck Down Near the Yucatain. Snow for the NC MTNS Forecast. A Look Back at 1940 Flooding NC - Linville Caverns. Ode to Our State Magazine
Info on TS Sara at the bottom
Great Flood of 1940s in NC
A look back at some hurricane history.
An August Hurricane ...
I am starting this Sunday Morning blog with the photo above that's in the incredible article linked below from Our State Magazine. This is our North Carolina Magazine that along with sharing recipes as well as travel suggestions is literally a primer for anyone who has recently moved to North Carolina, is thinking on moving to North Carolina or has moved away and loves to touch home as they turn the pages of this treasured magazine. And, they often do Weather History as weather is big part of North Carolina as we get all four seasons or five if you can add in the colorful Pollen Season so people with pollen allergy beware or rather be aware you will either need to go South to Florida for a month or pop benedryl in the Spring because Spring is your favorite season and you aren't going to leave. There are some things that are worth suffering through and if you have ever seen the Dogwood come to life here and then the Azaleas bloom well you'll know what I mean. We also get few horrific hot days with high heat index and no air movement in August that are beastly, however the heat has an expiration date... something it never has in Miami where I was born and bred from an "Old Florida" family going back to the 1800s.
Flooding is no stranger to NC.
Down by the sea....
...or up in the towns and hollers.
As I always say:
Rain + Terrain = Pain
Often death and destruction!
Why do people stay? Why do some people move away? Each family has it's own story.
Every flood has it's story and in the Applachaians often it has it's own hurricane. The local cable Spectrum News did an article on the 1940 flood that wiped out someone's home and business and discussed Linville Caverns severly impacted by that once infamous flood that many thought no one would ever forget. Life goes on, time goes by and people forget until the next flood hits a mountain community. It's an awesome read so I suggest you read it.
One of the first things I learned about the Hurricane History of the Carolinas from a book I bought when I was dating my husband and it became obvious we were getting married and I was going to move "Up North" to the North State which is really "Down South" but to Floridians in the Deep South we kind of think of it as "Up North" as Grandma Mary would say.
Hurricane Hugo punched so deeply into the Carolinas that it brought down huge boulders in the mountains that were so large they were just left there and it's become a sort of tourist attraction for people who like to hike up and see that sort of thing.
So know.... every natural disaster has it's story and most link back to a hurricane that everyone worried on down in Florida or by the Carolina Beachs, but few read the discussion for Helene from the NHC saying there would be catastrophic flooding up in the mountains from Helene. The Iconic Cone is shared everywhere, but words matter and the words in each advisory warned on the end game for Helene up in the mountains of the Carolinas.
In the Philappines there is a wild hurricane that just made landfall after others this season and this last one was one to brought up memories in my mind of Andrew when I was looping loops last night. Check that out below!
Wild Eye.
And Mike is eyeing SNOW
As he loves to go up to Tennessee
...to see snow...
Snow is missing in action in Tampa..
Mike loves to chase.
He's always up for the game.
Mike literally took NHC feed off the page.
We have moved on.
Not to say another could form...
...if so we are all over it!
Yes, we are dreaming of snow.
In 13 days the Hurricane Season ends.
Bye, bye, farewell.
Don't let the screen door slam on ya!
As for Sara...
She's down in Central America
Stuck.
But that cold front was not stuck!
Look how far South it went!
All I will say is it's, in theory in the forecast, it's forecast to be alive as a Tropical Depression once back over the BOC and we will see what we will see. See the little "D" at the end of the cone?
Those speckled blue clouds in the Atlantic...
...and parts of GOM
The are cold weather clouds.
Sara embedded to the South.
Halted in her tracks by the High Pressure.
Mike, and others, are taking flack for talking about a potential hit on Florida from a forecast Hurricane Sara and showing the Cone from the NHC and model tracks. Let's stop a minute and think on this. Mike's original page SpaghettiModels.com now known as Mike's Weather Page as well was made to post Spaghetti Model tracks put out with forecasts from the NHC on ...well forecasted tropical events and give all of us a heads up on where a hurricane might go. Those of us who know, real Floridians with history there, know even in 2024 hurricanes and especially Tropical Storms in November can be fickle! As much as we know, it's still November and some fronts over perform and some don't show up, steering currents get stuck and everything changes. And, we all say "until it forms and we get good Recon data...." nothing is for sure.
Note we had expected Recon to go in a day earlier, but for some reason they could not and had to reschedule for the next day. During that time things began to change and it's worth nothing one much relied on model had just had an Upgrade so perhaps there were a multitude of problems with the less than stellar forecast. In general ... NHC has been spot on with their forecasts before the center formed posting Potential Tropical Cyclone Cones and they have done a fantastic job. Sara slid through... obviously.
Personally it seemed odd as the official forecast for Hurricane Sara on it's way to Florida was not normal for this late in November and logically speaking IF it formed it made more sense it would be jerked back fast by a deep diving cold front ENE across the Caribbean or get shoved into Central America by the High Pressure pushing down fast. Moving up towards Florida anywhere North of Key West seemed not consistent with CLIMO, however.........as much as I said this was a rare track for a November hurricane here and on X I'll be honest I still have to give the official forecast from the NHC and so does Mike!
So cut him some slack and don't whine because you didn't get a rare, devastating hurricane once again in Florida. Personally I did a happy dance once I knew South Florida, where most my family lives, was out of the tropical woods!
Have an awesome Sunday.
Thanks for reading along in my online weather diary that started out as a lark as I typed my thoughts for me and my friends specifically my weather friends and writing friends, never realizing I'd be remarried and living in North Carolina still blogging 20 years later. The blog in the early days was a great outlet for me to let loose my thoughts on life as a single mother and the wonderful but strange group of friends I had and still have in the Writing Community and the Weather Community, where I could just be myself and read, post lyrics, be silly or pissy at someone both annoyed, also in a loving way as I'm more of a lover than a fighter :)
Sweet Snowy Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
Mostly weather posts. I'm on Insta for my family, on Facebook for old highschool friends and some local ones who are only there and no not going on a new social media as between the ones I'm on I'm posting enough and as certain people know, if they want to know my thoughts on life and weather I'm here blogging on www.bobbistorm.com that links to Hurricane Harbor!
It is what it is and all I can say really is that we have to watch and wait and see what happens when Sara emerges into the BOC after moving slowly across parts of Central America that are already experiencing catastrophic flooding and mudslides. I can add it's a long way time wise from possibly impacting Florida, should it's circulation survive intact after traversing the Yucatan Peninsular. This really has been the year of catastrophic flooding with mudslides across many parts of the world, some of which rarely see this sort of flooding. Sadly, it's a deadly problem for Central America currently.
This shows no tropical storm or hurricane ....
...approaching the USA.
Again the NHC tracks the center of a cyclone, it doesn't track "weather" which is the job of the National Weather Service. Most of the weather noted in the maps above concerns frontal boundaries. The High stays in place for a while protecting Florida from any landfalling systems should a cyclone such as the remnants of Sara til it gets dislodged by a strong cold front on November 21st.
So taking this one day at a time, we will see when and if Sara emerges into the BOC and if the models that hold onto her are totally wrong or not. It's that simple.
Meanwhile you can keep the towns and villages in Central America in your prayers as we've had way too many people die this from flooding and mudslides.
Have an awesome weekend...
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps I am not saying the Hurricane Season is over, but clearly we are winding down as we transition towards a more Winter like pattern in many parts of the hurricane coastline. As 2024 has been one that likes to break rules, it's very possible we will have another rule breaker later. But for now Sara is a Central American storm. Beyond that... we will know soon enough.
NHC Upgrades to Sara! Impacting Central America with Heavy Rains ...Deadly, Destructive Situation. Florida Solution Possible... Just Delayed....
Well that happened.
The ever changing models.......
Note there's still a right hook.
Just because Cone ends before that..
It's like delayed gratification...
...tho this is more like delayed misery!
November 20th and 21st!
NOAA Forecast Maps.
Don't turn your back yet on Sara.
Pray she is not so mean to Central America!
Will update later today or tonight!
Keep reading from 10 AM today
* * *
10 AM Thursday
Nothing in life happens in a vacuum.
This is true.
Especially with regard to tropical weather.
Especially late in Fall.
This has slow, slow, slow...faster.
Then ...FAST written all over it.
Today anyway.
Mid November is a time of change.
Weather changes fast, models change often.
Way back when I was in college I was considered an expert at "linkage" and that concept in International Relations is still a valid school of theory regarding how the world works between nations. Foreign Policy. Weather, especially tropical weather, is all about linkage. Mike, from Spaghetti Models aka Mike's Weather Page, is a pro at linkage and his ability to lay out the grids making it easier for the viewer to see what is going on and it's so subtle even he may not be aware how good he is...
How strong will Sara be is the question? Funny we both have daughter's named Sara (in my case I dropped the h and used it for my daughter Dina's middle name) and as I type this thinking what to say Recon IS going in TODAY as there was some problem yesterday and we should... (never say "should" Yaffah says but I always do my own thing) hopefully get good data to put into the models after Recon collects the data and that's good as models are beginning to disagree over intensity down the line.
As I said yesterday, Central America is where it's at today. They have terrain and rivers and creeks that are prone to flooding and even a weak storm could create a death toll.
If you connected the dots above you'll see we have strong fronts on the move currently and pockets of High Pressure.
Above is an image taken from the Mimic Loop, it's the image most relevant to explain a bit about the life and steering currents that will impact Sara. Note the huge, massively huge area of intense tropical moisture soon about to be unleashed on the region shown in the map below.
I love maps.
Lost of maps in International Relations!
It's swirling, it's spinning, it's trying hard to consolidate all this convection into a neat bundle worthy of a name vs a Tropical Depression. Note the last front way out in the Atlantic. Generally at first the front pushes through and then a deep, strong High sets up and presses down seen above in the Fall like shade of Purple seen currently in the Roxa Palette from Natasha Denona. This is how my brain works, it's either Crayola or Eye Shadow ;) and the next front is currently slicing through the Appalachians and into the Raleigh area with a batch of early rain declaring that the forecast for rain for the Carolins was definitely valid and happening sooner rather than later. The front (orange gold vertical line) dips down through the Florida Panhandle linking up with moisture leftover from let's not go there and soon connecting with soon to be Sara.
Bernie Rayno put this up earlier.
One thing I like about him... let's say appreciate.....is when he is wrong early on he admits he was wrong and then often explains why he was wrong helping others to understand how difficult it is to predict where a system that hasn't formed yet will go and the multitude of things that can change the timing, intensity or direction in real time. The current set up pushes soon to be Sara WEST into Central America, possibly Mexico (chasers are waiting as I type this to book a ticket to Cancun) depending on how deep into land Sara goes and then if most models are right it gets pulled back fast as if someone pulled on it's chain suddenly and takes off fast for a vacation somewhere in Florida.
As there are a myriad of possible tracks after the Yucatan the NHC is currently playing it safe and showing what is now vs what your mind (you know who you are) is thinking as you connect the dots!
Stay tuned.
Hoping it's not too hard on Central America as slow movement of a very, wet, moist tropical storm can create misery and death.
Based on the presentation of Invest 99L and it's steady consolidation and as it will impact parts of Central America within the next 36 hours, the NHC has iniated Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 forecast to be upgraded to Sara in the near future. The Cone is above and shows the slow movement over the next several days while it lingers down in this region with weak steering currents. Things should change down the road, but for now this is the cone. Obviously up the road we are concerned on the Florida Peninsular that's been hit too often this year already and really doesn't need yet another Hurricane.
Recon did not go in today and they may go in tomorrow. Meanwhile it's being monitored by the NHC and an army of online meteorologists, weather people and anyone living in Florida that wants an early heads up before a possible landfalling tropical system.
Check back tomorrow. Currently, Central America is on soon to be Sara's dance card!
Latest Models above.
If you didn't read the blog earlier, please keep reading. Thanks for following along. Hope this helps.
11 AM
Starting with models.
Because that's what everyone wants.
"Where is it going?"
The question is....
...where does it form?
Recon on it's way....
Seems everyone is edgy regarding Invest 99L. Mike and I have bad memories of Invest 99Ls so let's start off with that, we were commiserating on X last night. Same thought, "oh...99L....OH..." add in some nasty words probably that I'm not posting here. Invests tagged 99L in our minds gives us the "Heebie-Jeebies" and that's not a comfortable feeling. Like someone walking over a grave, perhaps the grave of Hurricane Wilma that seems to be haunting many of us this week while watching this area come together.
What will Recon find?
Looks better than yesterday.
A sort of "roundish" look to it.
Wide round area.
No real shear there.
Water temperatures hot.
Recipe for trouble.
Let's look at more models.
So many questions....
Where does it form?
When does it form?
Where does it go?
Does it really hang down by Central America?
How long will it hang down by Central America?
How strong will it be down by Central America?
Where does it go after Central America?
Where in Florida will it make landfall?
How strong will it be on landfall?
Will it be tight and a small core on approach to Florida?
Will it be broad and all over Florida?
Will it be a tornado event like Milton over Florida?
Note few are asking............"long term where does it go?"
And that my friends is a big question.
Savvy weather history folks will ask:
"Could this go up the Eastern Seaboard after Florida?"
"Which part of the Eastern Seaboard could be impacted?"
"Could this impact North Carolina?"
"Could this impact Virginia"
"How about New England?"
Will this merge with a cold front?
Is this the last named storm?"
Note questions in quotation marks are important.
But first we deal with today.
When is it forming.
The answer my friends is blowing in the wind and recon is going in and we will know more later this afternoon. And, then once the data collected from Recon will be put into the next set of model runs we should have a better idea of what is going on with Invest 99L expected to become Sara soon.
So I'm going to leave now and wait to get info from Recon. Because anything I say is really just spitting into the wind and we aren't even sure which way the wind will be blowing in several days as there are many questions up the road that will steer Sara somewhere.
Today is a day of waiting. Waiting on Recon.
I'll be back. Til then enjoy the music and have a wonderful day!
Invest 99L - 90% RED! Waiting for Tropical Storm Sara to Form.
Area that's now an Invest
Post by my friend Jim Edds
Zoom Earth screenshot
Models from Mike's Weather Page
aka Spaghetti Models...
A bit of a reminder here in that there is a Tropical Wave (remember we'd been watching a late season one) and the general area of spin down near the CAG that was a Rebel Without a Cause so to speak, but in this case without a Center and as the tropical wave moves West...it becomes the spark that lights the fire and gets our Invest area spinning.
Now look at WV
Area really blossoming.
Really wants to spin.
High pressure to the North (dark area)
That incubates so to speak...
...our Invest.
Will update with any new info
Stay tuned and stay aware!
Jim is such a great name ....
...first video I hit on
Enjoy
Awesome song to dance to...
ps 90% in 7 days... 60% in 2
Earlier this morning........
Waiting on Invest that should be soon.
Models below.
Using models from Eric Burris on X
A look at the visible imagery.
You can literally see something forming.
Up close below.
On Earthnull visible as well.
Bottom line is there is something forming and with or without an Invest that should show up soon, we should have an area the NHC has shown consistent attention to this area. How far North it goes, or how far South it stays will be decided based on when and where it forms and .... how well developed "Sara" will be as that's the next name on the board.
Some models slide it into the Florida Straits moving towards South Florida. Others take it eventually to West Florida or SW Florida...some show it dawdling around some and then taking off fast towards Florida.
All eyes on Florida in many ways these days...
I'll update this afternoon when next model runs come out and it's worth noting the EURO is being upgraded today.
Thanks for reading. If you are in the path of these models, remember to check out your Hurricane Supplies to make sure the kids didn't get into cookies or.... perhaps you decided the season was over and began shopping directly from the Hurricane Supplies.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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