A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, December 04, 2025
Jack Frost & Sunrise Through the Carolina Pines!! Will It SNOW Tomorrow?? Who Knows ??? Supermoon in December is the "Cold Moon"
Woke up this morning, deep down under the covers as I prefer lots of blankets to the heat being on too high and tried to go back to sleep. My husband wakes up early and leaves early. I lay there, playing possum trying to stay in bed and enjoy the cool morning; the weight of the covers and dreams of snow falling from the sky tomorrow morning. As he was leaving he yelled out "there's frost on the cars!" and I giggled and jumped out of bed, threw on my faithful Victoria's Secret soft, warm hoodie over my pajamas, shoes and ran outside to see the frost for myself. I know for people raised up in Maine or Michigan or Minnesota this may sound silly, but in Miami I never could understand what frost was actually.
"Jack Frost" this character from Winter used in stories or referred to in movies really seemed an intangible sort of winter weather. Snow I get, snow I had seen and Ice Storms were explained in detail to me by my best friend who grew up in Upstate New York. Frost seemed some sort of fleeting, ethereal visitor as it creeps in like fog or something - in truth I never was sure. In Raleigh it happens sometimes, you have to be up early to see it and it melts as fast as the sun climbs above the level of sunrise. Even in Winter the sun here can warm things up fast, especially on a relatively clear day the first week of December. It's dry more than it's wet, so generally there's not enough moisture to get a real layer of frost. I live in the Suburbs of Raleigh, maybe if I lived out in the country I'd see Jack more often...
As the picture above shows I saw frost and I made a small smiley face on someone's red car and smiled like a kid. Normally, the only thing we could do similar to that in Miami was either because smoke for a fire in the Glades left ashes on the car or a heavy layer of Saharan Dust. My father was never happy when he saw smiley faces on his car, not because he kept it cleaned and washed but he didn't understand the need to make a smiley face!
Nuff said on the smiley face. But oh the sunrise was beautiful. In Carolina you get the chance in Winter to see the sunrise or set between the bare oak tree branches or through the Carolina Pines. Not exactly a clear cut view of the sky here as there is in South Florida. I finally get why people line up at sunset in Key West to watch the sun set out over the water turning tropical golds, pinks and sometimes even a drop of fuchsia!
Luckily I like the lacy look the Pines make...
As for snow tomorrow? Who knows.............???
Watching videos online.
Raleigh is always in that area of
"definitely maybe"
but
"probably not"
Raleigh is always on "the line"
But there's cold air coming down the road.
I'm a sick puppy.... I love the cold weather.
Had enough of hot weather most my life....
I like when the air feels like the AC is on outside!
On Miami Beach my best friend and I would tell the kids we were going shopping to Publix and run over to the beach about 5 blocks away from our house and watch the moon rise sitting on the boardwalk. Awesomeness. Then we'd rush to Publix and in a frenzy throw enough food into the shopping basket to make it look like we'd been wandering through Publix talking rather than hanging out at the beach. In later years we'd go to Hollywood Beach, after the move up the road, and there's nothing like Hollywood Beach during a full moon, let alone a Super Moon! People line up to watch, especially as astronomers bring telescopes to see the moon up closer; people dance by the band shell or walk on the beach.
Winter Dreams in the Carolinas. Winter Storm Moving East.... Cold Air in Place!
Google Weather. Either loves me or is just teasing me.
Really, really want snow.
A dusting.... flurries.
Wintry Mix!
Life in Carolina can be a heart breaker when it comes to Winter Weather. Those who love Winter Weather often get their heart broken when the temperature stays too high and we get rain or the snow turns to sleet (which is neat but cuts down the totals) or we get way more than expected and the whole place goes bonkers. Those who want snow often get their heart broken. Those who moved here to get away from the snow get their heart broken when it snows. It's good to know which side of this divide your friends are on before you say "WOW DID U SEE WE MIGHT GET SNOW?" and they scowl and explain they moved here to get away from Winter and you silently think "oh gee maybe you should have moved to Jacksonville Florida, you didn't research this well did you?" and then there are those who live here and love it because it has the Seasons. I love snow. I want snow. I like any form of Wintry Mix. And, yet I'm on that line geographically where there is usually snow to the North yet it seems very hard to get it to move South of I-40.
The joy is it's December, very early December and there will be many more chances for Winter Dreams later in the Winter. Cold weather currently is all the rage & it's a nice early bonus. Below is a good map I saw online put out by Gerald Mengel who is and On Air Met in Charlotte a city to my WSW that I spend time in often. It's the base of the Piedmont Crescent that runs from there to Raleigh. Hurricane people type things like WSW ...
You can see this storm....
...sort of matches up along those lines.
Carolinas have the mountains...
...and the beautiful beaches...
Many live in the Piedmont in NC!
Gets a nice mix of weather.
Seasons are awesome.
Can go W toward the moutains.
East to the beaches.
And many of us pray for snow!
I'm praying.
Wishing.
Hoping.
But I'll believe it if I see it!
Nice
Colorful maps today on X!
I so love color and maps!
December 1st brought winter.
Below Freezing nights.
Days in the 40s and 50s.
Polar Vortex is in style this year.
It drops down....
...cold air gets shunted down.
So yeah that's my weather world today!
This is a Weather online diary ya know....
Snowed in my son's backyard in Colorado.
Loved the pics!
It was very pretty, been there and it's beautiful.
Snow Chances in the Air.... Raleigh Convention Center on Fire Tonight from a Gas Leak! Shimmer Wall Keeps on Shimmering.
(note this blog was written in real time....)
Regarding the 2025 Hurricane Season....
...it's best to go straight to the source.
There's a link below to their story....
...the story of flying into hurricanes.
So we can get the best forecast possible.
There's not much to say the season is over and I've spoken on it and everyone has spoken on it and it was what it was and it was a season of disconnecting dialogues. It was a boring, slow season with mediocre storms struggling to get a name and survive a while and some Invests could not even muster the energy to get a name, let alone a track map. Then there were the Major Hurricanes that did Rapid Intensification as if it was a dance they learned in college or performed on the road. A little warming up and WHAM we had RI and everyone online went wild reading data from planes and they all curved up into the Atlantic far from any landfall. Until Melissa that managed to somehow break the spell, break the forcefield and slide into the Caribbean going where no other 2025 systems dared to go. And she hit the specific spot of hot water that would allow her to intensify stronger than any other Atlantic Hurricane on record since we've been able to collect the data. A season of extremes from slow, boring and exhausting to "OMG did you see the models" and watching it do what the models showed it would do ...though taking her own time to draw out the drama.
Tropical Storm Chantal.
People forget it made landfall.
In the USA.
It did the Carolinas....
...and a bit of Virgina.
Ye Olde Tidewater States.
United in history.
The USA did have a landfall.
But it was a TS not a Cane.
It's a season that will be studied for years to come and instead of saying "this could blow the top off like Wilma did" they will be saying "this could blow the top off like Melissa did!" and Jamaica tries to pull it back together, pick up the pieces and start over. After a Cat 5 Hurricane that is basically what happens. It's not "fix things up" nor "clean away the debris" it's starting over from scratch in some places. Some places fared better than others but the whole infrastructure and normal flow of life is far off like that distant galaxy over the horizon. Prayers and charity are important. Hard work, grit and a sense of determination and I've known a lot of Jamaicans and they all have that in abundance. I've lived twice in areas that were filled with Island Folk from the Caribbean, both in Crown Heights and in North Miami Beach Florida and they are awesome. But it's still an awesome challenge to get to normal after a Major Hurricane let alone a strong Cat 5 Hurricane.
Back at the ranch.... watching chances for Winter Weather that could pop up or rather fall down to the sky if the cards are all aligned and we are dealt a hand with Winter excitement vs cold, nasty rain. First there was a chance of next Tuesday (there was one flake on weather App) lol and then it said a chance of flurries Friday Night maybe.... then a sliver of a chance ?? Now it shows maybe Saturday!! Go figure there's possible snowflakes spread all over Google Weather! Maybe we will see flurries indeed!
So this happened..........
Checked X for a post on snow....
...and "oh my God!"
Raleigh Convention Center on Fire..
Live Breaking News...
LED Wall still works!
Go figure.
In shock here......
All news stations good here.
WRAL is a go to for Breaking Local News.
Seems fire was on the roof.
Seems electricity is on as LED wall working.
We do so love that Shimmer Wall.
Rarely does anything happen in Raleigh.
Anything big or terrible.
Watching coverage in real time...
...old school style.
Really crazy.
ABC News put this image up ....
Maybe we will get snow........
.... this looks fake...
But it's a real picture.
My mind went to that pic from 2014..
..or maybe some scene from Ghostbusters!
Old pic from 2014.
Just a reminder that you think you know what you are going to write on and suddenly news happens, close to where you live at a place you know well. Will see in the morning if there are snowflakes on the Weather App tomorrow! Maybe sometimes things happen in Raleigh, we had Tropical Storm Chantal, could we get early December snowflakes or even some Ice?
Leaving a link to my friend Mitch who put up a good video on YouTube on Winter Storms and Snow possibilities. Mitch wants snow. I want snow. Will see as life happens in real time....
Thanksgiving in the Tropics! Hurricane Season Ends with Only Tropical Storm Chantal Making Landfall in USA. Major Canes Out at Sea Til Sadly Melissa Slammed Jamaica with Historic Hurricane Force Winds... Winter on the Way I'm Happy to Say! Thankful for All My Weather Friends ;)
Black Friday is all about cold air.
Buy hoodies, boots and gloves!
There's a very old saying "don't take any wooden nickels" and I'll add that should be remembered when the GFS promises a named tropical system in December in Florida when cold fronts reign across the South. Cold weather with dry air behind it all the way down into Florida. Miami may or may not participate but it's beginning to look a lot like Meteorological Winter and that's in 5 days when the calendar flips to December.
Thanksgiving scatters snow in the Midwest.
It already snowed in Minnesotta yesterday.
More is on the way behind that.
The front is draped across South Florida.
No named storm is in sight!
Over the next few days I'll write something on the 2025 Hurricane Season as it ends officially very soon. I'm a Capricorn, while I am not boring, I do like traditional dates and November 30th it's officially over. As for the seasons I go by Meteorological dates so on December 1st Winter begins officially for me. I do pay attention to the Winter Solstice and it deserves it's own attention especially in a year when the Polar Vortex may be a term as popular as Rapid Intensification was in 2025 with our Major Hurricanes.
Our Season was a Tale of 2 Seasons.
Perhaps 3 in ways.
The early weak Tropical Storms.
Chantal did make landfall in the USA.
Went deep into NC over Raleigh & beyond!
The clean up from flooding is still going on.
Carrboro, Durham, Chapel Hill had flooding.
People seem to forget that....
..while high giving "no hurricanes in USA this year!"
There were a plethora of Invests.
Some elevated to "any time now" status...
...yet they faded away.
I was at OBX with the Invest nearby before Erin.
Major Hurricane.
Cat 3, Cat 4.... Cat 5 oh my!
It did miss making landfall...tho it impacted NC.
Erin then moved close to landfall and...
...pulled out at the last moment.
Something changed after Erin.
The predictions for a backloaded hurricane season veried and the season came alive when Humberto went Cat 5 as the calendar turned towards October and it ended when Melissa broke through the dam and made it into the Caribbean and aimed itself directly at that pool of hot water South of Jamaica as if it had been reading posts on X showing it where it needed to go to explode. And explode it did and with that explosive energy we had the strongest gusts every recorded by recon in the Atlantic Basin EVER!
While the USA did not get a direct hit by a hurricane, Jamaica got a Cat 5 that'll be remembered forever and be written about in the history books. More on that later in future blogs.
The season was a tale of two seasons in that many storms were forgetful and not worth remembering and struggled greatly to even keep their name and other storms took off as if they were on steroids exploding and putting on quite the show.
Barry remnants were or weren't involved in Tx flooding.
December 8 Days Away - GFS Wishing on a Tropical System in the Gulf. EURO SEES NOTHING. I Want Snow..............
December 1st.
We have a odd feature on the GFS...
(has to be the GFS right?)
Is that a V for victory!
A heart :)
A Bat Symbol?
Whatever it is... it's in SW Carib.
And there's a moisture feed near the Gulf.
The Euro does not show that...
...but does show convection in same spot.
And a moisture feed up near the Gulf.
This would be Post Season development should it..
..develop.
Tuesday it's up over Central America
That could bring serious rains to that area.
It's a fast mover.
Wednesday it's up near the Yucatan
Obviously trying to connect with a front.
The EURO Sees NOTHING.
Thursday it's on the move.
It's got a name? A game plan??
The EURO sees NOTHING.
Friday GFS has a system near you know where.
Where no chaser wants to chase this year.
Or for a few years.
The EURO Sees NOTHING.
Saturday GFS has it off the Carolina Coast. Really this should be named Zippy!
Cause it's like Zipping along...
The EURO sees NOTHING!
Many will say the MJO but we have waited for the cavalry to come many times this year heralded by models and rarely was in there where we thought it would be.
That said.........there is a high to the North and often when there is a large high pressure dome, things to the South try and spin up so there's some minimal logic for this illogical season. Everyone is pointing to the December Storm in 1925 which is nice but while the Charleston was all the rage in 1925 there were barely any hurricanes let alone tropical storms or tropical depressions. Not exactly a good analog year for 2025 though they both have 25 in their year. Giggling. 1925 was a very, very slow hurricane season but a strong El Nino and known more for the Tri State Tornado Outbreak in March. The Great Gatsby was out but not as popular as Scott had hoped it would be as it was a bit depressing, and sadly he never knew it would one day become the Great American Novel. He continued watching Zelda, writing over her thoughts and stories and life went on far from hurricanes in the Gulf.
My brother texted me earlier today.
He sent me THE MODEL showing a track across Florida.
Asked "what's the time table" ???
I responded. 1925 wasn't exactly an analog year and few other models are as excited as the GFS.
He sent me a smiling fast like he was just kidding. (trust me he's not lol he's debating buying water!!)
So what do I think? Let's talk on this tomorrow. If more models of any kind jump on this and some AI models have shown interest then we will talk more on it.
I will say the set up ...if it produced a system ....even a weak one it could possibly help push Winter along as December is indeed Meteorological Winter and IF this tried to form it would be a Ps vs a new exciting trend for tropical development in December 2025.
One Hit Wonder Weak System maybe............cannot rule it out.
But I'm watching the snow on those models I posted and wishing they got South of the Virginia, NC line. What the EURO does show for later in December is a dipping, diving cold front but alas it's all rain :(
Only thing I will say is this lines up with the odd year of 2025 where things tried to form in the Gulf and yet they took shape off the Florida Coast on the way to slide by the Outer Banks. Note 1925 TS track and weather map.
Melissa Record Breaking Wind Gust 252 MPH! Bickering on X About Long Range Snow Models. Promise Me a Sliver of a Chance of Snow & I'll Follow You Forever :) I Look at Models I Only Believe It When I See Flurries Faliing.... Be Kind.
First thing I want to mention is the story that took over Weather X last night and that is the announcement that Melissa had the strongest "wind gust" measured by a dropsondes at 252 MPH. Again, this is a "Wind gust" not sustained winds and people need to remember that. I remember when the gust was measured as many of us were online monitoring the Recon feed in real time and there was discussion on whether it would stand up under evaluation as accurate. Any rare measurement as such is carefully researched by the NHC to be sure it was accurate as accuracy is their middle name. It also comes in as the 2nd strongest on Earth that we have measured in a Hurricane!
So typical sometimes of a huge monster storm checking in late in the season. In 1992 after we went without any named storms all through June, July and early August Andrew formed. 1992 has to be one of the hottest, most unbearable summers in Miami I have ever lived through. And, then came Andrew and Andrew as we all know did Rapid Intensification and after turning towards a late Summer trip to Miami went Cat 5 in real time as all of Miami watched in horror. No escape route present and Andrew ripped across South Florida taking aim again on Louisiana.
I was worried about something in the SW Caribbean that might move up into the warmest water just South of Jamaica and I had mentioned it many times as history shows the Caribbean produces monsters in late October. A few online called me out as hyping and trying to scare people for click bait purposes. Really, I have never posted anything for Clickbait. I don't have a button on my blog for donations, if someone reads me on X or elsewhere such as the blog that's good and I hope I have helped. I specialize in knowing Hurricane History very well and the signs were there and yet few westbound tropical waves made it into the basin. So rather than forming in the SW Carib from a CAG that was constantly forecast but barely showed at all this year............a westbound wave went right for that hot spot and exploded into Melissa one of the strongest storms ever measured in modern times.
This is my OMG image I keep to remember.
Solid ball of deadly, destructive winds.
The more you know about hurricanes...
...the more they get to you.
Still in awe.
Death toll still climbing. Luckily they had warning.
There was no warning for many others....
...that litter history with details from journals.
Before blogs there were weather journals!
The next thing I wanted to mention is the arguing online about how "stupid" people are to post long range Winter Forecasts as if we have not been posting long range models during hurricane season. Really? This is not new. Okay now we have AI models and many feel they are even more accurate than the EURO while possibly not as accurate as the GFS. Nothing is new in Weather and people have always posted models that push the boundaries on reality and wishcasting. Why people are being attacked as if they are quacks that somehow managed to get a degree in megteorology I don't know. I could say "jealousy" cause there's always someone wishing on snow that'll click on any model even 3 weeks out or more. Just promise me the chance of snow and you have my attention. I know they are not reliable and infact real snow storms in the South form in real time and usually the NWS is not very accurate more than 2 or 3 days out. Sorry but telling it like it is. A model shows the snow sliding South and everyone runs and shares it. Then a new run shows it pulling back up and Snow Lovers look sad and then the next model run shows maybe just maybe there's a chance.
Come on this is nothing new and I'd rather have a meteorologist explaining it's a maybe than having another TicToc video with a weather psychic who threw tarot cards and explains that Saturn will be conjuct the Moon and the cold will be a real thing and Neptune is watery so it's likely we will get 20 inches of snow in the South on November 30th! Really?? Really??? Choose your poison if you like boring go with those who never show anything past the 5 day and if you like to dream dangerously follow the poster that shows you there's a sliver of a chance of a snow storm. Life is about choices, choose carefully and stop being mean to someone who you are only giving advertisement to your viewers who may want to see longer range model. You're only giving that person more attention and more clicks. And there are people who read the Almanac and believe and others know it's good bathroom reading!
Many feel they are more superior than others because they don't share snow forecasts more than a week out. Okay. Good for them. It's a big world. Somewhere between always and never is where you will find me. Below is an image from a video on YT that I noticed today. I have watched him sometimes. I'll admit if he promises me the slightest chance of snow flurries in North Carolina I will watch why he thinks that even though I've seen 20 posts on X so far today showing me the same thing.
I mean do you believe in Santa Claus?
Do you believe in the little elves?
Do you believe in his workshop at the N Pole?
It's one of the most accepted ornaments around.
Santa smiling as if he has our favorite
(fill in the blank)
Yet is there really a Beauty Queen Barbie in his bag?
As a child I wanted the fancy Barbie.
My mother was not a fan.
I guess she bought off Santa.
I got some knock off dupe from a drug store.
Really, it was horrible.
I was told I was ungrateful.
Because I said "it's not a real Barbie"
I was just being honest.
My Uncle Howard tho....
...would come thru every year.
He'd visit Miami and ...
....bring me a Birthday Barbie :)
I could see my mother pursuing her lips.
Uncle Howard was fun!!
Seriously everyone get a grip.
It's X it's not the Family Bible!
X is one part news one part entertainment.
YouTube has something for everyone.
Use your remote and choose wisely.
You don't have to attack someone ....
....don't be so judgey.
I don't believe a model for snow until....
...the snow begins to fall.
Miller A Miller B Miller C
I don't care.
I adore Mitch for posting these!
Be kind.
Be nice.
We are not that "stupid" we just wany snow.
Any chance at all we will talk on it!
I saw Santa in Savannah this week!
I know Santa isn't real....
...even tho TV Mets have been known to dress up as him!
I just wanted a sexy, cute Barbie with heels.
It's free to wish.........
....free to believe.
Like Charlie Brown the snow is stolen ....
...by the mean Snow Queen!
But that's another story for another day.
Sweet snowy dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
and ps if I get a bit of Northern Lights...
...I'd be so fricking happy too!
Wishing, praying, smiling.
My brother Ronnie loves this song.
He believed less in Santa....
...and more on Kellier Pickler who he had a crush on.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
