December 1st! Hurricane Season Over......Meteorological Winter Begins! Winter Dreams & F Scott Fitzgerald & Zelda. Keep Donating to Help Those Trying to Get Back to Normal in NC & FL.

Out with the old.....

......in with the new!

There's obviously moisture down there...

...in the SW Carib.

Down where it belongs.

Clouds off OBX Brrrrrrr

Was 30 Degrees in NC....

...before Sunrise.

Remember this only tracks the center.

Strong weather happened outside the center.

2024 Hurricane Season shown above. Nothing hit Miami or OBX ...go figure. There was a bevy of Hurricanes no one remembers as they stayed far out in the Atlantic in the shipping lanes. Yet everyone remembers Beryl that began the season and Debby and Helene and Milton. There were many other memorable ones such as the No Name Storm that swamped parts of East NC in flooding that the NHC refused to upgrade even though it had a closed warm core and winds close to 70 MPH! But I'll let that go now that I ranted and move on.

I think we should move on. But, I show this video above because it was a memorable storm that impacted my area even inland and it shows the harsh truth that not only did West NC get historic Hurricane Helene but it's worth remembering that Eastern NC also was impacted by tropical weather without a name now dubbed a 1,000 year storm.

2024 Hurricane Season was especially harsh on North Carolina and Florida; obviously the two states that tend to get hit the hardest by Hurricanes but this year was especially hard, harsh and historic. Heavy hitting and in both states the clean up goes on and on and on. Feels endless in ways.  The Mid Atlantic I may mention got lucky this year. 

As I always say Hurricane Season is locational in perception, if you had a hurricane harass your town then you remember it always, if not it's forgotten the way those storms out in the Atlantic in the shipping lanes that didn't land on anyone's radar are not even a blip in anyone's memory.  To this day ...people keep asking me why they skipped over several letters.... they didn't obviously so I'll show a few many never knew.

In the Carolinas it's been beautifully cold, we are in peak of the season leaf wise or just past peak. Fall collides with Winter and I love that. I don't like to miss a minute of Winter up here and if I go anywhere it'll be Colorado to visit my son and his family there and/or Upstate NY to visit a daughter and grandson there.

Miami is penciled in for later this week or more specifically Hollywood Florida where my husband has business and I have several kids who live there to visit and a best friend to hang out with...and we really, really need alone time. Then back to NC to appreciate the layers and nuances of Winter.

I'll talk more on the hurricane season soon, but really I think we are knee deep in holiday decorations and holiday music and collecting gifts for friends and donating to those who need who are still homeless living in tents in the mountains of NC in the harsh cold weather that many love to go visit to see snow and ski but remember while you are there at some resort there are many without a home, trying to get a trailer or something they can live in while volunteers bring them supplies and they try and get back to some sort of "normal" life that is normal in that schools are open but nothing is normal.

And, I'll say that again and again...........after a hurricane hits hard.........nothing is normal for a long time.

I'm blessed to be in boring Raleigh (it's not so boring, but it usually avoids the worst of the weather) and my youngest son is here in the house with his steady girlfriend whose oh my gosh adorable and I'm under the covers typing on my weather journal I share with the world while sipping coffee and trying to remember what I want and need to take to South Florida for a fast trip in and out with stops a long the way.

Sweet Wintry Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps So many songs I could leave you with today but my mind is on Scott..specifically F. Scott Fitzgerald and a short story he wrote that was a sort of his own muse to go deeper with the themes  that he expanded on his Winter Dreams taking them to New York City and writng The Great Gatsby. If you read my bio... I have degrees in English and International Relations; a good part of a Masters in English that's heavy in Scott and Zelda that I never finished because life got busy.  So enjoy the pretty imagery and if you get a chance, make a cup of hot tea, coffee or buttered rum and listen to the story Scott wrote when he was young about Winter Dreams. Ice Castles, oh my..........brrrrrr.

An unconventional end for a hurricane blog.

But....I'm a big unconventional!

Whole story is above if you have time.

Some snow falling 1920s music...

I asked Grok but it's not doing well.

I'll go with the last one.

;

;)

Happy Thanksgiving Week Monday! Tropics Dead or ??? Something for Dessert? Carib Convection .... Winter Made It to Miami!

 

There is nothing being officially tracked in the tropics by the NHC. But, as you can see there is a large area moisture surging it's way through the Caribbean in an area that is familiar with late November development. This is a "know it's there" but so is cold water off the Carolinas and my daughter in Miami is "absolutely freezing" and she's not kidding, because when those first cold fronts charge through with great determination they bring with it an icy cold feel to the wind, despite the tropical looking colors of Miami life. They also bring tourists for Thanksgiving and Art Basel that begins December 2nd!

As you can see from the Water Vapor loop below, if something were to even try and form... it would be scooted out of the Caribbean far to the South of Florida. Nothing organized, but colorful and very there so thought I'd mention it.  Weather at the top and some thoughts on life at the bottom of the blog.

This is not to say....

...some areas getting heavy rains.

Flooding has been the signature of 2024.

So while not organized.

Can still cause trouble.

Ye Olde Purple Splotch is down there.

Anchored tho the moisture surging NE

This shows the front stalled out down there.

Way down there...

Currently in the Carolinas.

I'm making Thanksgiving.

I love living where Thanksgiving really looks like a Seasonal Holiday that's more than eating Pumpkin Pie! My youngest son is coming for the holiday with his incredible girlfriend as they snuck me in after Arizona and the Domincan Republic before Art Basel hits Miami like a colorful tornado! Stronger than a hurricane. The traffic, oh my goodness. IF I was going to be there soon .... staying in the hotel and or with my best friend for Shabbos. We will see. For now I'm in NC.

I was sick for a few weeks. Okay I was sick for more than 3 weeks with a Perfect Storm of allergy, asthma, a cold or the flu or a virus that lingered until I was put on a few different medications and it's awesome to feel alert, alive and aware again. Seemed everyone had it recently, I was commiserating on WhatsApp with my ex-husband who was making himself Throat Tea while I was making Breath Easy Tea. I like what Reed Timmer called it when he warned anyone chasing not to come near him as he had the Fall Plague. Yup, sounds right. The Fall Plague.

Personally yesterday morning was a hard day as I had to process bad news that was horrible, horrific and tragic and that does happen way too often these days. My close friend's granddaughter found out that her husband's sister's brother was murdered in UAE. I knew, but forgot her husband's oldest daughter from his first marriage that she raised as her own ... was already married and had a husband. Wow life moves fast when you aren't paying attention. Not easy when most of your closest friends are in Miami and you're in NC you miss a lot. Though I have some awesome friends here in NC as well. But I pushed on.... with shopping lists based on another list of menu options; making 2 meals Vegetarian Thursday Lunch for the beautiful Blaire and followed up with BBQ Turkey Legs  late snack for my son later in the day. And, an additional huge Thanksgiving Turkey meal with real turkey Friday Night and they can eat leftovers on Sunday. I may have gone overboard, you know how mother's are with their youngest child who actually is like a close friend as well. Actually, my brother spoiled him but that's a different story as he lived by my brother when I moved to NC while he was in high school promising to move here because "fresh air" but he tricked me so I'd get remarried, move to beautiful North Carolina where he'd come and go over time. Kids can be so sneaky ;) 

Cherish the good times, the good moments. So that's what my friend said  to me in the end to me yesterday morning as we talked through our thoughts and feelings ... savor the moments, enjoy every minute. Good advice! Then I spoke to my best friend Malka til 2 AM while she was cooking for 26 people coming to her house on Thursday for Thanksgiving. 

What do you eat for dessert on Thanksgiving???

I'm a Pumpkin Pie person. My husband isn't. I don't know why. He was raised a Vegetarian but started eating meat in his 20s so perhaps it's just one more vegetable to him. I have a friend who I'm sure wants Lemon Meringue.  I bought a Pumpkin Pie at Trader Joes and an Edwards Chocolate Chiffon Frozen Pie for Thursday and serving Pineapple Upside Down Cake on Friday Night for Shabbos because my son likes it and it's a specialty of mine and I had Pineapple Cake Mix and Pineapple in the pantry! Damn, I need cherries. Always forget something right?

Running into Whole Foods ...

...last store, one thing I needed.

I looked up at the sky and OMG.

Snapped one pic fast.

To show my friend I was....

...enjoying every single moment.

Have a wonderful holiday and may you only have good times, happy memories and enjoy whatever weather is tossed at you!

Remember to look up at the sky... the trees....feel the breeze and give thanks for the beauty around us!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather... elsewhere... whatever.

Rather than a songs.

Here's a Trailer.

It's my ultimate ....

...oh my God that's my family!

My mother always terrified neighbors ....

Funny old movie.

Almost died watching it the first time.

Second...third....fourth.

Hope yours is not as chaotic!

Ps My mother refused to make Thanksgiving usually.

She didn't want to cook a big old ugly bird.

(okay.........)

Eventually she'd relent and send my father out...

...to the butcher to buy a "Frozen Turkey Breast"

Slathered in Chinese Gravy.

Drove me crazy.

I just wanted a "real Thanksgiving"

Like my Aunt made before my Uncle died.

My father would take me out to a Cafeteria....

Thanksgiving Week...

"Don't tell your mother"

I didn't ;)

I keep secrets

:) IYKYK

Happy Holidays!

Wild Storm Last Night. 37 MPH Winds in Raleigh... Close to Tropical Storm Force! Temperature Dropping After Sunrise.. 39 Degrees. Falling Into Winter

 

Look at that Swirl, swirling.

Propelling Cold Air South.

We had a front whoosh thru fast last nite!

Awesomeness!

Yay! In the  morning there were leaves ...

...left on the tree.

Amazingly.

Wild winds last night.

Always amazes me the tenacity of the leaves.

15 years here I'm still in awe of Fall!

There's an old saying "can't see the forest for the trees" and I suppose in this case it applies to me. Why you ask? Because as I was obsessing over the incredible Pacific Coast Hurricane Force Low AKA Bomb Cyclone (this is why hurricanes have names, so much easier...) I wasn't focusing on the Ohio Valley Low that I knew was there as my friend as been watching it on X... I digress. I wasn't paying close attention to my local weather while watching hurricane force winds in Washington State. 

I knew the cold front was going to come through and I knew there was a Freeze Watch as a second front will push through and secure temperatures so low that we will be just above freezing ... probably. Always hard to say in Raleigh and to be fair early ... late November Cold Fronts do tend to overproduce! Kind of like Beryl on July 1st!! Another brush with freezing temperatures is supposed to usher in December here.

Again, one of my degrees is in International Relations, so while I try to ignore the threat of WW3 due to the Ukraine War heating up........I tried so hard last night to just lay back and relax and enjoy the CMA Show listening to Country Music I love and letting the world turn without me last night.

Suddenly there was this noise, more like a roaring sound as if we were suddenly getting lashed by a Summer Storm or Tropical Storm as what sounded like rain against my bedroom windows was loud. I figured it was raining, but I couldn't hear the rain. By the time I got outside on the balcony the wind had subsided some from the initial Gust Front and there was no rain but it looked much like the tail end of a passing tropical storm that had caught a cold front. That happens here often......a wild scene as the pines dip down so low you'd think they would snap and the maple tree moves in all directions like a scene out of a Disney Cartoon. 

Then I remembered "The Front" ... my front....that I had literally ignored as the big, huge swirl out West was so compelling. I also remembered Cantore and others said that DNA from Sara's remnants would help infuse the the front with tropical moisture. I stood there in awe, finally going back to the bedroom and the CMAs and as the window was open some in the bedroom I listened to the howling wind as a background component to the incredible CMAs.

When the CMAs was over the News came on saying many parts of Raleigh had Power Outages as trees had fallen on power lines and accidents happened in the suddeness of the storm. Happy I still had power I tried to go to sleep, but it took a while as the sound of the wind was wild. Gusty, fast wild and sudden and then quiet again and just when I thought it was over another gust hit the house and knocked something off the windowsill by the open window.

Typing fast without brakes this morning.

As I want to share the joy of that first strong cold front from far up somewhere else that suddenly comes and rocks your world. 

I love weather. I love Winter. Clear blue skies, I can see the sky as the hard wood trees have lost their leaves and everything is magical here for a Miami girl who grew up bored in perpetual summer with the only "fun" thing that happened ever was a Hurricane. That's it. Literally all that ever could happen was a Hurricane and on rare occasions in my childhood hail that covered the ground like snow. Oh, an once in a while my father's boring white Chevy was covered in reddish brown Saharan Dust.

There's a reason much of my High School Class of over 700 kids live Up North somewhere, usually Up North - Down South as we enjoy the Seasons, the change of weather and we know Summer has an expiration date.

Have a wonderful day and pay attention to your local weather while watching the global dance of the atmosphere as most of us do...

Sweet Holiday Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X and elsewhere... 

X mostly weather and mostly just on X because I'm too lazy to try and be everywhere all at once.

Ps I asked my husband when he came in just now from outside "is it really that cold out there?" and he's a good indicator as he was raised in Upstate NY in the Catskills and he said quickly "Oh yeah!" as he's not as easily impressed with cold weather as me. After living in Miami for College he ended up in NC as he "loves the seasons" but not shoveling snow all the time. Yup, that's big in NC lots of people from NE and Upstate NY and Pennsyslvannia... seasons but and less shoveling snow!

I'll spell check later and maybe Edit, but trying to be spontaneous here today.

Pacific Hurricane Force Low Pounding NW Coast. Half a Million & Climbing Without Power in Seattle Area & It's Only Just Begun... Snow Storm in Updstate NY, Ohio Valley. FL Getting Rain Like the Models For Sara Suggested!

 

No that's not AI generated.

It's a wind filter on Windy.com

Literally has an EYE

Putting this into perspective going wide.

So no the Hurricane Season isn't over, it's just relocated globally to a different area. Some call it a Bomb Cyclone. Looks like a SuperStorm to me. 

Whatever it is.......it's producing Hurricane conditions, pounding rain and much destruction across a wide area of a city that is synonomus with some of our largest Tech Companies; been there and half the people I meet work for a large Tech company and currently power is out across a wide area.

No that's not a teddy bear....

Over half a million and climbing without power.

Akin to Rapid Intensification...

...in real time.

Breaking records

Cannot tell you how much I love Seattle, loved it from the start and I know this map well. The reason someone could be sleepless in Seattle is because it has the best coffee, tea houses, donut shops and a wide array of places to go at all hours of the night including Speakeasy Bars that'll make a perfect drink for you after listening to what you like in a drink...voila! And, then you can get delicious donuts walking home. It's one of those cities similar to Miami that shines at night, lights up at night and yet during the day we tell the weather by if "The Mountain is Out" meaning it's clear and then you stare at Mt Rainier.

Sooooooooo yes that happened or rather it IS happening.

On our side of the world closer to the Atlantic Basin parts of the country are looking forward to a taste of winter and maybe enough rain to put out the wildfires.

Elevation matters.... 

As for the Atlantic Basin...

Regarding the Sara debacle...the models did show the story but lost something in translation.

Modeling isn't perfect but modeling sniffed out the set up and the weather and while Sara didn't form a core that stayed in play vs shuffling inland westbound into Central America... still the model images of a moisture trail connected down to the Yucatan did verify! I've said this before, with long range modeling often a model verifies in some way but not the way we expected it to. And, some of Sara's DNA is wrapped up now in the flow into the front that's raining from Florida up the coast to where I live... where't it's raining as I type this blog.

In ways the models verified!

Lastly a bit of Weather History.

Weather Historians don't get enough credit.

And, I consider myself one...

Cary Mock mentions 1878 El Nino.

Historic Wxr event out West ...

...and elseshwere.

1878 Hurricane Season.

Lots of landfalling storms.

Winter Storms.

You can read up on it...

...in the link below.

Year without Winter...

..due to Epic El Nino.

No El Nino now but .....

...hey we have epic weather.

Have a wonderful, amazing day finding ways to be happy and taking some time for yourselves to soak in the changes in the seasons going on around us... 

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/1877_1878_winter.html#:~:text=The%201877%2D78%20is%20understood,El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20of%202023%2D24.

Keep Smiling!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

other places too but mostly I live on Twitter

Just a limit of how much I want to divide up my time and energy.

IE My kids live on Insta so I have to pay attention there... 

Always here on the blog.

My grandma Mary played the piano.

That's an understatment.

Blind in her old age..she played the piano.

Performed at State Capital of FL...

...for the Governor.

She loved this song... 

.. I have her sheet music in a box.

It makes me smile.

Nice images tho I prefer Nat King Cole.

Enjoy the video... 

with love 

Bobbi

Sara Stuck Down Near the Yucatain. Snow for the NC MTNS Forecast. A Look Back at 1940 Flooding NC - Linville Caverns. Ode to Our State Magazine

Info on TS Sara at the bottom

Great Flood of 1940s in NC

A look back at some hurricane history.

An August Hurricane ...

I am starting this Sunday Morning blog with the photo above that's in the incredible article linked below from Our State Magazine. This is our North Carolina Magazine that along with sharing recipes as well as travel suggestions is literally a primer for anyone who has recently moved to North Carolina, is thinking on moving to North Carolina or has moved away and loves to touch home as they turn the pages of this treasured magazine. And, they often do Weather History as weather is big part of North Carolina as we get all four seasons or five if you can add in the colorful Pollen Season so people with pollen allergy beware or rather be aware you will either need to go South to Florida for a month or pop benedryl in the Spring because Spring is your favorite season and you aren't going to leave. There are some things that are worth suffering through and if you have ever seen the Dogwood come to life here and then the Azaleas bloom well you'll know what I mean.  We also get few horrific hot days with high heat index and no air movement in August that are beastly, however the heat has an expiration date... something it never has in Miami where I was born and bred from an "Old Florida" family going back to the 1800s.

Flooding is no stranger to NC.

Down by the sea....

...or up in the towns and hollers.

As I always say:

Rain + Terrain = Pain

Often death and destruction!

Why do people stay? Why do some people move away? Each family has it's own story.

Every flood has it's story and in the Applachaians often it has it's own hurricane. The local cable Spectrum News did an article on the 1940 flood that wiped out someone's home and business and discussed Linville Caverns severly impacted by that once infamous flood that many thought no one would ever forget. Life goes on, time goes by and people forget until the next flood hits a mountain community. It's an awesome read so I suggest you read it.

https://www.ourstate.com/the-deluge-of-1940/

One of the first things I learned about the Hurricane History of the Carolinas from a book I bought when I was dating my husband and it became obvious we were getting married and I was going to move "Up North" to the North State which is really "Down South" but to Floridians in the Deep South we kind of think of it as "Up North" as Grandma Mary would say.

Hurricane Hugo punched so deeply into the Carolinas that it brought down huge boulders in the mountains that were so large they were just left there and it's become a sort of tourist attraction for people who like to hike up and see that sort of thing.

So know.... every natural disaster has it's story and most link back to a hurricane that everyone worried on down in Florida or by the Carolina Beachs, but few read the discussion for Helene from the NHC saying there would be catastrophic flooding up in the mountains from Helene. The Iconic Cone is shared everywhere, but words matter and the words in each advisory warned on the end game for Helene up in the mountains of the Carolinas. 

In the Philappines there is a wild hurricane that just made landfall after others this season and this last one was one to brought up memories in my mind of Andrew when I was looping loops last night. Check that out below!

Wild Eye.

And Mike is eyeing SNOW

As he loves to go up to Tennessee

...to see snow...

Snow is missing in action in Tampa..

Mike loves to chase.

He's always up for the game.

Mike literally took NHC feed off the page.

We have moved on.

Not to say another could form...

...if so we are all over it!

Yes, we are dreaming of snow.

In 13 days the Hurricane Season ends.

Bye, bye, farewell.

Don't let the screen door slam on ya!

As for Sara...

She's down in Central America

Stuck.

But that cold front was not stuck!

Look how far South it went!

All I will say is it's, in theory in the forecast,  it's forecast to be alive as a Tropical Depression once back over the BOC and we will see what we will see. See the little "D" at the end of the cone?

Those speckled blue clouds in the Atlantic...

...and parts of GOM

The are cold weather clouds.

Sara embedded to the South.

Halted in her tracks by the High Pressure.

Mike, and others, are taking flack for talking about a potential hit on Florida from a forecast Hurricane Sara and showing the Cone from the NHC and model tracks. Let's stop a minute and think on this. Mike's original page SpaghettiModels.com now known as Mike's Weather Page as well was made to post Spaghetti Model tracks put out with forecasts from the NHC on ...well forecasted tropical events and give all of us a heads up on where a hurricane might go. Those of us who know, real Floridians with history there, know even in 2024 hurricanes and especially Tropical Storms in November can be fickle! As much as we know, it's still November and some fronts over perform and some don't show up, steering currents get stuck and everything changes. And, we all say "until it forms and we get good Recon data...." nothing is for sure.

Note we had expected Recon to go in a day earlier, but for some reason they could not and had to reschedule for the next day. During that time things began to change and it's worth nothing one much relied on model had just had an Upgrade so perhaps there were a multitude of problems with the less than stellar forecast.  In general ... NHC has been spot on with their forecasts before the center formed posting Potential Tropical Cyclone Cones and they have done a fantastic job. Sara slid through... obviously.

Personally it seemed odd as the official forecast for Hurricane Sara on it's way to Florida was not normal for this late in November and logically speaking IF it formed it made more sense it would be jerked back fast by a deep diving cold front ENE across the Caribbean or get shoved into Central America by the High Pressure pushing down fast. Moving up towards Florida anywhere North of Key West seemed not consistent with CLIMO, however.........as much as I said this was a rare track for a November hurricane here and on X I'll be honest I still have to give the official forecast from the NHC and so does Mike!

So cut him some slack and don't whine because you didn't get a rare, devastating hurricane once again in Florida. Personally I did a happy dance once I knew South Florida, where most my family lives, was out of the tropical woods!

Have an awesome Sunday.

Thanks for reading along in my online weather diary that started out as a lark as I typed my thoughts for me and my friends specifically my weather friends and writing friends, never realizing I'd be remarried and living in North Carolina still blogging 20 years later. The blog in the early days was a great outlet for me to let loose my thoughts on life as a single mother and the wonderful but strange group of friends I had and still have in the Writing Community and the Weather Community, where I could just be myself and read, post lyrics, be silly or pissy at someone both annoyed, also in a loving way as I'm more of a lover than a fighter :)

Sweet Snowy Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Mostly weather posts. I'm on Insta for my family, on Facebook for old highschool friends and some local ones who are only there and no not going on a new social media as between the ones I'm on I'm posting enough and as certain people know, if they want to know my thoughts on life and weather I'm here blogging on www.bobbistorm.com that links to Hurricane Harbor!

Still a great song...

 

Sara and Central America

Cone below.

This is the Cone for Sara.

Yes it emerges into the BOC as a Depression.

Yet the cone stops where it does.

These are the  models.

That does seem to be a disconnect.

You're right.

It is what it is and all I can say really is that we have to watch and wait and see what happens when Sara emerges into the BOC after moving slowly across parts of Central America that are already experiencing catastrophic flooding and mudslides. I can add it's a long way time wise from possibly impacting Florida, should it's circulation survive intact after traversing the Yucatan Peninsular. This really has been the year of catastrophic flooding with mudslides across many parts of the world, some of which rarely see this sort of flooding. Sadly, it's a deadly problem for Central America currently.

This shows no tropical storm or hurricane ....

...approaching the USA.

Again the NHC tracks the center of a cyclone, it doesn't track "weather" which is the job of the National Weather Service. Most of the weather noted in the maps above concerns frontal boundaries. The High stays in place for a while protecting Florida from any landfalling systems should a cyclone such as the remnants of Sara til it gets dislodged by a strong cold front on November 21st. 

So taking this one day at a time, we will see when and if Sara emerges into the BOC and if the models that hold onto her are totally wrong or not. It's that simple.

Meanwhile you can keep the towns and villages in Central America in your prayers as we've had way too many people die this from flooding and mudslides.

Have an awesome weekend...

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps I am not saying the Hurricane Season is over, but clearly we are winding down as we transition towards a more Winter like pattern in many parts of the hurricane coastline. As 2024 has been one that likes to break rules, it's very possible we will have another rule breaker later. But for now Sara is a Central American storm. Beyond that... we will know soon enough.

NHC Upgrades to Sara! Impacting Central America with Heavy Rains ...Deadly, Destructive Situation. Florida Solution Possible... Just Delayed....

 

Well that happened.

The ever changing models.......

Note there's still a right hook.

Just because Cone ends before that..

It's like delayed gratification...

...tho this is more like delayed misery!

November 20th and 21st!

NOAA Forecast Maps.

Don't turn your back yet on Sara.

Pray she is not so mean to Central America!

Will update later today or tonight!

Keep reading from 10 AM today

* * *

10 AM Thursday

Nothing in life happens in a vacuum.

This is true. 

Especially with regard to tropical weather.

Especially late in Fall.

This has slow, slow, slow...faster.

Then ...FAST written all over it.

Today anyway.

Mid November is a time of change.

Weather changes fast, models change often.

Way back when I was in college I was considered an expert at "linkage" and that concept in International Relations is still a valid school of theory regarding how the world works between nations. Foreign Policy. Weather, especially tropical weather, is all about linkage. Mike, from Spaghetti Models aka Mike's Weather Page, is a pro at linkage and his ability to lay out the grids making it easier for the viewer to see what is going on and it's so subtle even he may not be aware how good he is...

How strong will Sara be is the question? Funny we both have daughter's named Sara (in my case I dropped the h and used it for my daughter Dina's middle name) and as I type this thinking what to say Recon IS going in TODAY as there was some problem yesterday and we should... (never say "should" Yaffah says but I always do my own thing) hopefully get good data to put into the models after Recon collects the data and that's good as models are beginning to disagree over intensity down the line.

As I said yesterday, Central America is where it's at today. They have terrain and rivers and creeks that are prone to flooding and even a weak storm could create a death toll.

If you connected the dots above you'll see we have strong fronts on the move currently and pockets of High Pressure.

Above is an image taken from the Mimic Loop, it's the image most relevant to explain a bit about the life and steering currents that will impact Sara.  Note the huge, massively huge area of intense tropical moisture soon about to be unleashed on the region shown in the map below. 

I love maps.

Lost of maps in International Relations!

It's swirling, it's spinning, it's trying hard to consolidate all this convection into a neat bundle worthy of a name vs a Tropical Depression.  Note the last front way out in the Atlantic. Generally at first the front pushes through and then a deep, strong High sets up and presses down seen above in the Fall like shade of Purple seen currently in the Roxa Palette from Natasha Denona.  This is how my brain works, it's either Crayola or Eye Shadow ;) and the next front is currently slicing through the Appalachians and into the Raleigh area with a batch of early rain declaring that the forecast for rain for the Carolins was definitely valid and happening sooner rather than later. The front (orange gold vertical line) dips down through the Florida Panhandle linking up with moisture leftover from let's not go there and soon connecting with soon to be Sara.

Bernie Rayno put this up earlier.

One thing I like about him... let's say appreciate.....is when he is wrong early on he admits he was wrong and then often explains why he was wrong helping others to understand how difficult it is to predict where a system that hasn't formed yet will go and the multitude of things that can change the timing, intensity or direction in real time. The current set up pushes soon to be Sara WEST into Central America, possibly Mexico (chasers are waiting as I type this to book a ticket to Cancun) depending on how deep into land Sara goes and then if most models are right it gets pulled back fast as if someone pulled on it's chain suddenly and takes off fast for a vacation somewhere in Florida.

As there are a myriad of possible tracks after the Yucatan the NHC is currently playing it safe and showing what is now vs what your mind (you know who you are) is thinking as you connect the dots!

Stay tuned. 

Hoping it's not too hard on Central America as slow movement of a very, wet, moist tropical storm can create misery and death.

Florida knows it's there. 

We all do.

It's a wait and see day.

Rainy in Raleigh ....

Everything in life is timing.

IF Sara had formed faster and was strong.

Might have linked up with the current front.

But the current front is slip sliding fast away

It came in 3 hours early in Raleigh ...

TD 19 or Sara gets stuck a bit.

Steering currents weaken.

Not good for Central America.

This time of year....

..there's another front down the road.

Maybe current forecast is off.

Possibly as it's just forming.

It's West of NHC forecast points.

BUT... once back over water.

The forecast is for...

..excellent conditions for intensification.

How strong?

We don't know.

But we will know soon nuff.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter