Do You Believe It'll Snow Across the Carolinas This Weekend? Chances Are Rising but......Where???

This awesome graphic is from

Carolina Weather Group

Good to follow if you live in the Carolinas.

Link below the song...

This is the big question!!

YouTube video below is from the Carolina Weather Group. We are an interesting in that we see ourselves as part of the The Carolinas and yet there's much discussion on which Carolina is better. I'd probably say South Carolina for beaches and North Carolina for mountains, not to say our beaches here in NC are not beautiful as well. For me I'd take the stretch from Pawley's Island to Myrtle Beach over the Outer Banks.  But all in all it's all beautiful in the Carolinas, we just rarely get a good snow storm East of the mountains! So let's look at the models so definitely going to Windy.com as it offers so much. 

This is the EURO for Friday.

Note all the winter weather is to the North.

Suddenly Saturday....

Moisture shows up to the South.

Seemingly out of nowhere!!

Then it dries up.

Then..... as the low off the coast forms.

And the energy connects.

Snow shows up again.

You can see the low off the coast.

Suddenly snow

Sliding along the coast mostly.

Next image shows it sliding up along the coast.

GFS 

Everyone's party friend shows this....

Front moves down

Energy feeds in from the South

Raleigh has lots of snow.

SC gets snow.

Georgia gets snow!

Tally in FL gets snow!!

GFS is reminding me of old time Oprah ... way back when.

Note GFS gets flirty again about 10 days away.

Always promises 10 days out...

I'm waiting to see what NWS does tomorrow as we move closer to Saturday. I just can't with the 10 models anymore and yes you are thinking "oh it's not the Hurricane Season, she's all over them then" and that's true but Hurricanes are easier to predict than Southern Snow. If you know you know...

And the Virga Queen (not a party girl) has been present in this region. The cold gets into place, the moisture is up in the clouds and all we get is virga which basically means nada. 

Oklahoma gets snow.

Wait they get Winter.

Wow.

10 days from now........

...that storm really delivers.

IF that storm would verify.........IF

That's one huge Winter Storm System.

So stay tuned.

Halfway through January.

63 Days til Spring...

Will check tomorrow to see ....

...how much this changed or not!

Sweet Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Ps. Memories can be funny. A song and a thought came to mind while I was typing this blog. Do you believe in models? Do you believe in Magical Models that promise you the moon on the 10th day? Funny part is I remember dancing to it in LA in the mid 1980s at some club where it was in fast mode Disco Style. And, then I realized oops.......wrong Magic Song. Giggling..... Xanadu and did Xanadu really exist or was it a magical dream? Love that movie sound track. Okay, you have to believe we are magic and nothing can stand in the way of our Winter Storm or at least some snow! 1980s LA, makes sense. Good times. Loved Santa Monica! Nothing a walk on the Santa Monica Pier could not cure!

Good discussion from Carolina Weather Group 

on is it really gonna snow?

First time I heard about them I Googled them.

I saw a Tee Shirt they had that said:

Carolina Where Fronts Come to Die and giggled.

So true. 

Maybe it was just a Meme but yeah that happens.

Snow May Show Up in the South... May as in Maybe? Models Keep Modeling & Time Getting Closer... Maybe.

Models madness.

Usually they see it.

Then they don't.

And it's always the GFS....

Goes back and forth....

Little closer to the coast.

More inland.

Further South....

...Is further North next?

What does the NWS say?

I should have led with that but not really.

NWS chimes in after everyone's talking.

And there job is to be cautious and ...

...cover the closer time frame.

If this storm shifts to the East.....

...to the coast.

Gonna cry.

Not holding my breath!

Having problems believing. Why? It's been sooooooooo dry. Rain means a fine misty shower for ten minutes that's much like walking around in Seattle where they complain on the rain and yet it's more a fine mist. The dryness of the atmosphere is the problem believing the models. But this is looking more possible by the hour.   I'll update tomorrow most likely.

I have a close friend who I've known forever whose young son had a untimely death over the weekend in South Florida, and it's a sad situation. Horrible. I feel for her and all her kids are close friends with my various kids the same age as many of her kids. I've lived for years in a close community, more so in Miami, and friends are more like family and my friend's kids are more like nieces and nephews to me. An older daughter flew in from upstate New York to be with her best friend, who is my friend's older daughter and the young man's much loved older sister. I took a few days off to process and talk with my kids and friends and pray for them all. There's a time to dance and a time to mourn. I used to dance with her at weddings as she is from Iran and I can dance Persian style as it's similar to Bollywood! Good times. We'd dance all night! Life is filled with good times, but some have been in Florida, New York or California before moving to Carolinas.

And Carolinas may get snow this week. May as in Maybe... as in check back tomorrow. DaBuh shooting hearts with arrows as the set up shows possibilities and it definitely made me smile!

Sweet dreams............hope Mitch in SC gets some snow as long as he leaves some for me in the North State while he's in South Carolina. 

;)

Winter is Back! Mother Nature Back from Her Caribbean Cruise and Maybe Snow Shows Up! IF Not.... It'll Still Be Cold!

 

From Mike's Weather Page .....

...we can see.

Winter is back in style.

Ok Texas and parts of Oklahoma not participating yet.

But word on the street is...

Mother Nature is back from her Caribbean cruise...

...and she's back for winter misery.

There's even a chance of snow in the South.
Yes.....I said "chance"

Don't bet the farm.

Southern mountains maybe....

I've looked through various satellite loops, models and multiple discussions on the MJO and personally I want to see for myself where this goes as this year models have disappointed often. So taking it a day at a time and seeing if hopeful forecasts verify or not. Do models continue to show a chance or rip them away? 

Stay tuned.

Life is like that you know.....

Sometimes you gotta go with the flow.........

See where things go.

IF this week's model projections verify then.....I'll get some popcorn out settle in for some deep modeling and possible winter weather.

Baltimore shows snow.

Mixed types of precipitation.

I checked Richmond VA nothing.

Raleigh NC nothing.

So just keep watching.

Mind you we do have temperatures again!

Just we be lacking on moisture.

Need moisture to get snow...

...ya know!!

That's it. Laying low today and catching my breath after a crazy Sunday and wishing everyone peace, love, happiness and good hugs...... if you don't have anyone to give you a good hug well... hope you have a warm happy blanket. I know I do. It has satin and velvet and some tassels and on very cold winter nights I put it on the bed and smile.

Sweetest Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather   

elsewhere whatever

Tornado Warning - Fog and January Thaw Acting Like Spring. Don't Be Deceived....

 

Note the little red dots in the green.

Tornado Warnings in the South.

And flood threat though tonight.

Fog  blankets part of the South this morning.

As weather people pass long range models about online for any possibility of Winter Weather, Spring is trying to sneak in under the radar. That's not really happening, but you could easily think it is if you live in this part of the South. It's supposed to be 75 on Saturday in Raleigh and my closet is overflowing with shoes from different seasons. The little silver sandals sit next to the brown suede boots. 

Last half of January forecast to be seasonable cold and stormy. That said, until I see proof of it I'm taking this day by day.

In order news the Hurricanes won last night.

Hurricane flanges were flying...

Very cool!

Wonderful to see..... 

...maybe one day the Fins will be back too!

So have a good weekend.

Dress accordingly.

This is Winter.

Just feels like Spring.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Mitch & Models Waiting on Winter!

 

Watching Mitch talk models...

....why do I do that?

#1 he's good at it, he loves it.

#2 it's a bit like watching a slow motion train wreck.

Not my cup of coffee first thing in the morning.

1 model run.......

(it's the EURO)

....shows snow possibly.

or Ice!

Maybe.

Far out down the icy road....

Further down the icy road on the GFS

It's as if the algorithm knows which areas are the most winter weather deprived and throws them a bone on the 10th of 11th day knowing we are hooked and going to come back for more. I don't think that's an overly paranoid thought. Also if CLIMO is KING then IF it's gonna happen it'll happen deeper into January. 

What's the problem here?

Lack of cold air....

....not much of a snow pack to our North.

Our = Carolinas.

I'll be honest with you. For me, at this point in January where I am debating wearing sketchers or sandals today, talking on snow chances down the road is like debating on watching the Miami Dolphins play their last game knowing the "shit show" goes on though there's some promising players to watch and this long run on sentence is how this Winter has felt so far in Raleigh. We did have some snow early on and I am very thankful, that buoys me up a bit thinking we will get more. But I didn't watch the Miami Dolphins this past Sunday til the very end thinking by some miracle every team will lose or get the flu and the Fins will get into the playoffs. There are no illusions here.....

I do think we will have snow again in Raleigh this winter. When or how much I can't say, but the main problem currently is that the COLD is NOT in place.  When you get a feed, a fetch of weather coming at you in January and you are hoping for snow it sure does help to have the snow pack in place to your immediate North somewhere to get snow when the Southern Stream of the Jet hooks up with plunging fronts. 

Snow needs cold air (below 32 degrees preferably)

Snow needs moisture. 

We have been crazy dry in these parts. Dry and warm though we have cool nights. It's not a horrible recipe for Winter which I'd take anytime over a hot Carolina Summer.... but.....the ingredients need to at least be in the pantry or on the counter before I start counting my snowflakes.

Jim is on TWC moving his beautiful hands around out in the Pacific, showing how the system is moving in and how another disturbance is behind it. The sound was on mute but he began making faces and I figured I should turn the sound up. Yeah, some snow is coming through but not anywhere near it should be for this time of year. But hey.... it will be snowing by the resorts and its gonna be a great ski weekend!

This is how I am coping with the Winter of 2025 and 2026 and I'll add December of 2025 was way kinder winter weather wise to us than the January 2026 part of it. I just can't run the models. I watch the X feed. I watch the satellite imagery. It's just not happening in the short to midterm time frame. But, I do listen to Mitch and a few others on YouTube as YT is more entertaining these days than most other venues and I can find anything I want. 

It's not Hurricane Season.

Football Season is fading away.

There are hearts and candy in the Dollar Store as we are moving on til Valentines Day. And, it doesn't make me feel better when many of the long range models people on X begin to say "hey in Februray tho" because I am not holding my breath til February on January 7th. Nope. I'm wearing sandals.

Have a good day.

Enjoy the video below. If you are going to listen to model discussion Mitch is good to listen to...

Remember though he doesn't promise he says "could" happen and I can live with that as it definitely "could" happen  as the cold dives down, but not betting the farm.

Have a great Wednesday. I am not even going to proof read this again as deciding between Sketchers or Sandals plumb tuckered out my snow deprived brain and I need a real Starbucks! 

Chow for now..

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Ps ...............Thanks for coming to my particular harbor....

Polar Vortex MIA in OKC & Denver .... Raleigh Snowless. Maybe Mother Nature Hiding on a Beach in Key West? Left Polar Vortex on Automatic Mode??? El Nino Pushed Back to Summer???

The Polar Vortex ain't dipping this week much.

Rest of us are wearing boots at night...

...sandals during the day.

So what is up weather wise today?

Lots of Weather Trivia online.

Musing on Melissa's strongest winds....

...and waiting on El Nino.

Remember when we were waiting for the MJO?

Yah... nodding.

Now waiting on forecast EL NINO

In the mean time... in between time...

 

Apparently the sky tu'rned pink in Iowa...

AccuWeather Splains on X.

Welcome to January 2026! Today the social media world seems filled with Weather Trivia as there is not much going on in most parts of the USA, especially the Hurricane Coastline. Today is a cooler day in Raleigh, the high is forecast to be 56 degrees which means it won't hit 60 degrees! Well, if the forecast verifies. Good, I prefer cooler days rather than the nonstop see saw of the Polar Vortex which currently is way up where it belongs,  before it dips down again later in the month. I was never very into playing See Saw as a child. It gets boring fast. I taught Kindergarten once and I can promise you it's the toy least used on the playground. UP, down, Up, down, Up, down and off they go to the Merry Go Round or the Swings.

This is not really breaking news to OKC...

...their basketball team is called Thunder...

But Tampa Bay folks would argue ....

Speaking of Tampa Bay...

..Mike is on a cruise ... 

My daughter was on a cruise also.

My son was on a cruise also.

My brother was on a cruise.

All different cruise ships

There sure are many to choose from...

To be fair.........

...there's much El Nino vs La Nina talk.

But I want snow!

I'm having a fairly boring Winter.

Despite all the Polar Vortex is back talk!

Okay I do like the cooler temps.

I do love the sunset thru ....

....the bare branches of the Oak Tree.

So not complaining too much...

I want snow.

 

More El Nino discussion....

..Come Summer Now.

Very relevant to the 2026 hurricane season.

It would imply a quieter season.

Quiet is in the eye of the beholder!!

Andrew was coming off an El Nino year!

You get the idea.

When there's no Snow.

No Winter Storms or Super Storms.

Weather people talk on 2 topics.

El Nino/La Nina

Melissa.

Oh and YouTube Promises a Weather Change.

Maybe Snow... Diving Arctic Air!!

"PATTERN CHANGE COMING"

Yet we are stuck on the See Saw of ...

...the whims and fantasies of...

the Polar Vortex.

My week ahead. Not bad.

No real "WEATHER" just mild days...

colder nights!

Suddenly I feel much cooler.

Systems often move East from OKC

to my neck of the woods.

No snow moving East this week.....

Let's look at Denver.

They have a chance of snow on Thursday.

Oh my goodness.

Oh my gosh.

Oh my Winter where did you go?

So many promises made....

.

And that brings us to the last point.

Online promises of late January winter weather.

If not January 22nd when? (in RDU world)

and oh Lord...

some are pushing promises back to ...

"But February!!!"

So yeah I have been a little quiet.

Watching weather.

Watching news.

Trying to get stuff done while it's quiet....

...eventually there will be Winter.

Colorado will get more snow.

OKC will get snow.

Raleigh will (I Pray) get snow.

Have a great day.

Monday Morning.

First Monday of 2026.

Fast paced year.

Oh Earthquakes are shaking!

(Geology is such a good diversion)

... Mother Nature's hiding on winter vacation.

Maybe she's in Key West ....

wearing a hat and sunglasses...

...cute little bar.

A pink drink with an umbrella

A beach view.

She's definitely hiding somewhere....

Enjoy the video.

Spent many a morning there watching sunrise...

...watching the tourist.

Down the road from my family's old home...

or Tom's house where I'd stay usually.

Send help!!!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Maybe I should take a vacation.

Myrtle Beach? Maybe....

 

End of December Mild for Many... January Opens the Door to 2026 and Wintry Weather......Eventually...

 

There's a large system in the North Atlantic swirling about. It's influence is fairly huge and it conflicts at times with impulses riding up creating ripples of storms that may or may not bring winter weather depending how far North you are or are not. On the bottom left of this loop is another swirl, swirling about and adding moisture in some places and some places not. Towards the North there is a line of weather moving along near the US - Canadian Border from the West to the East. For now it's keeping Winter way up where many feel it belongs!!  Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas are dealing with the heat; warmer than normal temperatures East of the Rocky Mountains people may need sunscreen. It won't last forever and looking back in late January you'll remember late December fondly. Enjoy this quiet mellow late December, as January will open the door to wild, wicked weather that is likely to dig deep into February.

It is what it is until it is not. That is my message for the day. As I said yesterday it's an up and down pattern and either you're cold or your hot. Plan your events accordingly.

Long range models and synoptic patterns say Winter is waiting in the wings. Generally my money is on CLIMO.

For anyone traveling to NYC for New Year's Eve it seems snow is a possibility to ring in the New Year.

More tomorrow........

Wishing you your favorite weather as long as it doesn't collide with my wishes :)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X