Erick Makes Landfall as a Major Hurricane. EPAC Still Going Strong. When Does the Atlantic Wake Up? Some Thoughts...

 

Major Hurricane Erick makes landfall!

Note it became a TS and got the name Erick

on June 17th.

It made landfall as a Major Hurricane...

on June 19th.

Barely 48 hours after getting it's name.

Major Hurricane Landfall.

This is a perfect example of a storm that forms close in and goes through Rapid Intensification as it approaches landfall. Much like Charley, it had a difficult approach to landfall moving somewhat paralleling the coastline and making the forecast difficult to pin point an exact point where it would cross land way ahead of time. Storms like this play out in real time both in rapid intensification, the timing of eye wall replacement cycles and wobbles in track close in to the coast.

A Major Hurricane landfall in the EPAC in Mid June such as this is very rare and I'm wondering how many were actually prepared for hurricane season both regarding supplies and more so for the emotional impact of such a rare, sudden event.  And, again many online have mentioned how rare Beryl was last year in the Atlantic also in an area not prone to such landfalls .... let alone that early in the season.

Bridgett in 1971 and Carlotta in 2012 made landfall in that region both as Cat 2 hurricanes in mid June, not as a Category 4 Hurricane. Both made landfall a few days after forming as hurricanes have been doing since forever. Rarely do they become a Category 4, but conditions as I have said in the EPAC have been ripe for development and even before the season began there was a parade of waves there in the same area.

There's been flooding since before landfall and remember terrain is involved in that part of the world so flash flooding can be an issue. Erick is moving 9 MPH forward speed but the convection...the rain shield is way out ahead of the Erick's center and will mix it up with convection in the BOC. Not looking for development, just saying there's rain everywhere both in BOC and as it feeds into the atmospheric currents up through Mexico and into the SW and beyond. That'll be something to watch down the road weather wise.

Speaking of waves....they are moving West from Africa out into the Atlantic and each wave takes a bite out of the Saharan Air Layer and as the water warms up in the MDR we will see development. Currently it's the EPAC's time and there's another area being watched that is currently yellow behind Eric. And, the wave train in the EPAC is still going strong as you can see below. Could we see the F storm form down the tropical road there?  

One last thing I want to add.

The forecast is for a large High....

...to take hold over the South.
Over a good part of the country.

Hot temperatures near 100 for days.

High Pressure.

Sometimes.....

When a High takes hold to the North of the Gulf.

Low pressure can form to the South of it.

Ironically I was only looking for Pressure.

I wanted to see the pressures on Windy.com

(so many filters)

Took me a minute ....

Oh........

The GFS is back!

Is the GFS just whistling Dixie or....

...is it onto something.

It had promoted a July 4th Weekend storm...

..a while back.

And now just like the cat it's back!!

Take the GFS with a cup of sea salt.

But never ignore it.

Stay tuned.

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever mood I'm in ;)

Question.........

When does the EPAC take a break?

Count a week and Atlantic may wake up!!

Major Hurricane Erick Explodes Close In...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ERICK IS A MAJOR HURRICANE. Atlantic Still Quiet........So Quiet!

 

That's an impressive, wild loop.

The Rapid Intensification has played out.

NHC always opens low... 

...they said they were on conservative side.

Many said Erick would be like Otis.

And..........indeed.

This is close in Rapid Intensification.

Good post showing the bones of Erick.

I took the day off today from endless news messages on WhatsApp and chores in the house and blogging. I was pretty sure Erick would indeed explode, but how fast and to what intensity and how fast could it do it before landfall. Much like Otis last year in ways. Much like Beryl early in the season in the Atlantic last year. But it's 2025 and this is this year.

Note how close it is to landfall but looking at the last discussion from earlier today. I'll say we may see some wobbles and anyone chasing it will have to react fast and pivot if they can in order to get in the eye. Intensifying Major Hurricanes on landfall have eye wall replacement cycles, explosions of energy and they tend to wobble in the short term tho in the long term they take aim on their target. 

The hot pinks...fuchsia pinks....

are intense moisture.

It's got a pipe line going...

...sucking in the moisture, the fuel.

That moisture will slam Mexico...

..and get into BOC.

Close up....

The intensity of the storm is lashing the coast now.

The pink dot to the WNW is more rapid intensification.

Less than 24 hours to landfall...

....where does the rain go.

As for the Atlantic.

Not much going on.

NHC says nothing.

Even this site below says nothing.

BOC lost the candy stripe red.

So clean up your yards.... 

...trim those trees against the house.

Get a Hurricane Plan.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever.

From my favorite JB CD below.....

Summer Solstice Soon! Hot Summer Days. Hot Summer Nights. Water Warms Up to HOT! Erick ...Where Does His Rain Go? BOC Possibilities Low But There... Stay Tuned.

Graphics from Zoom Earth

Let's start with Erick

Erick is the 5th storm in the very busy Eastern Pacific this season in an area very conducive for development vs the Atlantic that currently is quiet. There are two good reasons to discuss Erick and those are how the NHC handles what may be a difficult forecast and where his moisture may ultimately may go and whether or that moisture could help spark a storm in the Bay of Campeche. Long run on sentence I know, but the last few days have been like one long run on sentence in ways.

The rainfall forecast for Erick above.

Obviously it can ooze into many places.

Graphic above shows the next 7 day rainfall.

Golds and reds seeping into Mexico...

..and into BOC.

Candy stripe red is favorable for development.

Could be from leftovers from Eric

And or combo with a tropical wave.

Is that just rain?
Maybe....

Meanwhile back to the forecast from NHC.

It's a complex forecast.

They admit in their discussion...

...they are on the low side of intensity.

The forecast for 100 mph could be low.

IF so..

NHC adjusts in real time.

Many people have asked me and every person involved with Hurricane Season how the NHC will do with various cuts in budgets and how well they will do this season in forecasting. I know the NHC and when I say that I mean personally and subjectively and they will always do their best to put together a good forecast. Hurricanes are always fickle even when our forecasting gets better on all levels. It's just the nature of the beast and a hurricane is a beast. So from the way the NHC handles Erick we can see how well, how normal they are doing and other EPAC systems before the Atlantic side of the basin gets busy. 

Most online insist there will be no development for the next 7 to 10 days in the Atlantic. I don't like to rule out the possibility of something popping up or changing in the short term. When I say "short term" I mean 5 to 10 days. But what I can say is that the High in the Atlantic is huge and for the foreseeable future not forecast to budge. Water temperatures in the MDR are not yet at the point ready to boil and fuel a hurricane. That said there is always a possibility for development close in and close in gives very little heads up and close in systems in June can deliver huge amounts of rainfall and create flooding. The wind may not be there to worry on, but heavy flooding is always an issue to take seriously. Also note the Summer Solstice is on Friday (coming up soon) and often comes with some sort of system or sign as to what the summer may bring. We are no longer pretending it's Summer because it's Meteorological Summer but we are in full force Summer.  Deeper into Summer the closer we get to the storms of Fall as July brings tropical storms the way September screams Hurricane.

For now.......you can see above........

High Pressure rules supreme in the Atlantic.

Check the red lines around the blue H.

Not much room for a tropical system to form...

...yet alone breathe and grow.

I'll add in a wild card ...

... often a Subtropical Storm forms in June.

Not discussing that ...just reminding you it happens.

So stay safe.

Stay centered.

Stay busy.

Stay happy.

And as always......

Sweet Tropical Dreams 

and 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather and there all day...

Elsewhere whatever 

As always Summer Nights can be wild.

Kids complaining it's too hot in Miami.

Funny I think it's too hot in NC too!

Some nights it barely cools off.

Ice Cream time ;)

or Party at Club Space in Miami....

To each generation it's own.

I've got kids who hang out there....

... hard working young adults.

Work hard, play hard!

Never stop chasing.....

All's Quiet in the Atlantic ... EPAC on Fire E Storm on the Way. World Moving Fast Tonight......... Short Post

 

Erick next name up in EPAC

NHC says nothing for 7 days.

Nothing but hot, hot and hotter.

Tropical waves over Africa... 

....lined up like planes taking off.

That's an impressive wave train.

I've been distracted today with breaking news and some localized weather. Thunder and birds chirping and rain all at the same time........do those birds every take a break? Had window open to hear the rain... but heat was excessive and only getting hotter. 

While watching news it does occur to me how much preparing for a hurricane is like preparing for an enemy assault and the need to find the best place to hunker down safely.  Cars lined up trying to get gas to evacuate. Doing the best you can to ride out the storm. 

I watch a lot of Agenda Free TV...

...he covers news, weather.

Tonight all the news is in the Mid East

Lots of possible historic events going on...

...and nothing in the tropics in Atlantic

So I'm going to go off....watch.

And loop another day.

Hey it's either that or....

..play on Flight Trackers lol

Know ppl who are doing that tonight.

BOC still a low chance maybe.

Remember Knowledge is Power.

Do what you got to do to prepare.

Hurricane Season 2025

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

One of my all time favorites.

I know not the biggest hit.

Lyrics awesome....

...so is the way it's sung.

Love it.

Had me at "caramel colored sunset"

Father's Day Quiet in the Tropics. Calm Before the Storm is a Good Time to Do Hurricane Prep. Wave Train There We Just Need Some Heat in the Atlantic. Close IN the Water is HOT! EPAC Is Also HOT!!

When you see this graphic above...

...know it's fairly normal.

Check graphic below.

The State of the Tropics below.

Huge High Pressure in Atlantic.

Saharan Dust out there.

A parade of waves moving Westbound.

A look at Africa!

Pockets of convection...become tropical waves.

Note the outline of Africa resembles the Gulf

Random thought but true.

Flare up of convection near BOC

(yes we are still watching BOC...)

Ghostly tail end of frontal boundary

Going wide below.

Worth noting that new large waves...

..took a bit bite out of the current SAL set up.

Every new wave takes another bite out of it.

And, SAL tends to weaken down the road.

That's a sign of things to come.

BUT ....we aren't there yet!

The reality is we really aren't there yet. And, there's nothing unusual about that as most years the Hurricane Season starts slowly in sputters of minimal activity and then suddenly it comes to life when conditions are ripe. This is much like when you make a cake, you get all the ingredients, you use the mixer and put it into pans and then put it into the oven. Twenty minutes later you go to check on it and realize you forgot to put the oven on. Oops. Many ingredients were used yet the heat was not there.

You can see the fronts, weak as they are but still there, draped across the top half of the loop above. They slide East slowly after dipping just a drop and parts of the front fall apart across Florida and the Gulf and shear by the entrance to the Caribbean can be seen as the clouds shooting off to the ENE.  Waves can be made out crossing the Atlantic to the South of the Saharan Dust as seen by the dots of gray Westbound.  The water is not warm out in the MDR aka Main Development Region in the middle of the Atlantic. The water IS warm enough in the Gulf and yet there's shear there. 

So we wait.

So we continue to put together a hurricane plan. 

We continue to pick up things to add to Hurricane Supplies. We think on where we would go should we need to evacuate and where to hunker down in our homes should we have to ride out a hurricane. What kind of hurricane might it be? A Category 3 or 4 hurricane or a borderline Cat 1 Hurricane. It matters. 

Have a wonderful Father's Day! Applies to all of us as we all had fathers and others such as Uncle and Grandfathers we love and some we remember fondly. 

Leaving you with a video of Bryan Norcross talking on the way things have changed over time and this particular season. Many have asked what will be this hurricane season and are worried on issues NHC will deal with and I know the NHC will do their best to keep us properly warned. IF they wanted to be chasers they'd be out chasing; they sit in a bunker like building that appears like a lair of hallways going in circles with some rooms and a nice little kitchen area. They stay up all night, they work in shifts and they collect data and do their best to put it all together in a forecast package that will verify.

There are some new models many are watching to see hopefully how we may have improved on other older models. Bryan has always been into new better models, that's why he was the first to say there was a chance Andrew would not take the forecast path and may take another doorway open to it. If you know you know. 

I want to remind you that the EPAC is very busy as I said it would be busy early and it is very busy. We are in search of the E name as you can see from the graphic below. I read many long, well organized posts on X about how the EPAC might not start early and it might be a while. I had been saying that it would start early and signs showed it could be busy. That also matters for us as when the EPAC is busy early in the season the Atlantic side takes longer to percolate. I was right and we did have storms early and we are still having storms and the Atlantic is still taking it's own sweet time. Use the calm before the storm wisely....

That's it.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

A tribute to my father below.

My cousin and I with my father in the Keys

We were raised more like siblings.

My uncle died young....

...my father tried.

Must have been "winter" :)

Good memory.

Quiet in the Atlantic - TS Daliah Forms in EPAC. Possibilities Next Week in BOC But Might Just Be Rain

 

This is the GFS.

Remember that.

While there is a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean that alone doesn't get spin going, especially when there's shear. There's also some energy shown above connected from EPAC that could get into BOC and help spin something up. What that something would be I can't speculate as there is not much model support. 

Otherwise nothing going on in the Atlantic today. 

Use your time wisely in quiet times. As you can see from almost any news story you are following it's a very fast news cycle and things change quickly. Remember that also will apply to Hurricane Season in the Atlantic and once it gets "busy" it'll be fast and busy.

The calm before the storm..........definitely applies here.

I'll update the blog most likely on Sunday. For now the Basin is quiet. In the EPAC the D storm formed.

Also be aware the flow around the High below.

Note the flow around the High.

Anything that would form now...

...would get into the Gulf.

So we will see what the flow is....

...once things come to life in the Atlantic.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere online whatever

CSU Forecast Update - Current Discussion on Possible BOC/Gulf June System... Analog Years ....Do You Remember 1996? I do...

I put this up on Insta earlier.

Models still showing increasing moisture

Possible low pressure.

Maybe a BOC system.

Either way a rainmaker. 

Let's start with the EURO

It shows increased convection.

A quasi little wanna be area in the EPAC

Moisture to the North

Reinforcing moisture behind it.

Never shows that much to talk about

But there's always something to talk about...

...when it comes to the GFS

GFS looks promising on 6/17

Bit of a center...color means winds.

Gets up in the BOC 

Still looks the same.

Weak here on landfall.

Different filter on windy.com 

Not a lot of rain actually...

Again it's far out ...

..over a week away.

Until something changes, the Atlantic Basin is not friendly nor interested in tropical formation. That's good as it gives you lots of time to get your act together before you are in the Cone and you're in the panic zone.  Panic mode is never really a good place to be before a hurricane as there's so much that NEEDS to be done.  

Meanwhile the EPAC has the energy.

But, that said.... it oozes up into Carib and BOC.

So stay tuned.

I'm saying "there's a chance" basically.

Regarding the CSU Updated Forecast.

Personally I'm not a big fan of saying

19 Named Storms

9 Hurricanes

4 Majors

Because it's not that simple.

You can have 19 Named storms and many of them are weak and out at sea, only a nuisance for shipping lane forecasts. Most of the 9 hurricanes can be "fish storms" dancing and swirling out in the Atlantic even missing Bermuda. Or they can be weak, wobbly fighting shear not properly aligned systems driving meteorologists out of their minds. And, a few can be lean, mean, fighting machines like Andrew that sliced through the tip of South Florida like a buzz saw barely losing a drop of intensity over land as it continued on towards the Berry Islands off the coast of Louisiana where it made it's 2nd big landfall. 

Until we are knee deep into the 2025 Hurricane Season and we are sure what the steering currents will be and how well developed the named storms are and how strong the Bermuda High really is and where exactly it sets up we are in the realm of a forecast and nothing more. Do we have continued frontal boundaries traveling from West to East or do a few dip down or do they simply go poof and there's a huge high pressure that builds in over the Southeast? Why you ask do I mention that? It's common for low pressure during the hurricane season to form to the South of a huge High Pressure system that has dropped anchor. Then we look to where the shear is......    

It's complicated.

What I do like to pay attention to in the CSU report is Analog Years. 

Numbers are good and obviously the more hurricanes there are, the more of a chance some can make landfall somewhere in the Islands or on the US Mainland. But, again and again it only takes one. A season can start slow as it did in 1992 when the heat in Miami was a visceral thing that cut through the town and it was all anyone talked about. Old timers said it meant a hurricane. Other old timers said the rare 3 crops of mangoes meant a hurricane was coming. Everyone has a wise old saying when it's early August and the heat has been unrelenting and there hasn't even been a Tropical Storm yet. The high was set up and in place and still all was quiet on the tropical front.

I use 1992 as an example, not because it is an analog year but because it's the best example I can give you of how fickle a hurricane season can be and each hurricane season has it's own rhyme and reason. A quite June doesn't mean a quiet August or a free pass to ignore hurricane season.

1996

1999

2008

2011

2021

Note that 2017 has been removed from the list.

I know a choir of happy angels are singing in the heavens.

1996, 1999 and 2008 were difficult years.

All years are difficult if you were hit by a Cane.

1996 and 1999 below.

Busy years with an emphasis West of 60 Degrees W.

Not to raise a panic flag....

...but to show similarities.

A series of Hurricanes impacted Carolinas.

Bahamas busy.

North Carolina very busy.

2008 below.

Again emphasis West of 60 degrees W.

Less room to escape tho some do...

Again Bahamas to NC

A splatter of systems in the Gulf.

Criss crossing Cuba as well.

2011 and 2021 respectively.

Long trackers.

Many tracked further than others.

Nuff Said.

Time will tell.

Currently looking at a long quiet periods in June.

That'll change fast in July.

That I do believe.

2 points from the CSU report.

1. Higher than normal chance of storms West of 60 degrees.

(obviously the further West the less of an escape route)

2. The word "uncertainty" was used 13 times.

There are many conflicting signals.

Neutral seasons are riff with this issue.

That's it for today.

Yesterday I played at the Mall.

Getting lost in the flow of humanity.

Smelling perfumes at Sephora.

Bought it. Reminds if me of Miami.

Love Miami but love the Carolinas too!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Insta definitely whatever 

Bluesky whenever there's a named storm.