Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 20, 2024

2PM Updated - Solstice ... 92L Now on the Clock - Set Up For Fast Moving Tropical Disturbance... DIt's a epression to Slide into the SE JAX GA Carolinas Watching Area Painted Orange This Morning. Alberto Made Landfall Near Tampico Mex. Flooding Tex/Mex. Patterns Produce in BOC/GOM & SE Coast.


Alberto gone, inland.
92L 40 in 2 Days.
Yellow X 50% in 7 day.







This means that the Invest known as 92L is the most compelling system to discuss today as whatever it is and whatever it may become will make "landfall" late Friday into Saturday. Recon has flown into the system and we are waiting. There are signs if has a very small closed center, but recon will get the data that answers that question. Models have problems latching on to very small systems (this has been an issue over time) but eventually it all shakes out one way or the other. This is not expected to be a huge weather maker, it's very interesting from an academic point of view (I worked in Academia a long time) and to me it's more so curious that it is even there as it's embedded in a huge, dry, high pressure.


Questions remain.
Could it get a name?
TD status?

It's a big question. 
Would the NHC put out a Potential Cyclone Alert for a possible Tropical Depression?

Pros
System has a small center it seems...
It's been very stubborn and not given up as most didn't even give it a chance.
It's going to travel across the high octane fuel of the Gulfstream...
........note that's mostly important IF it has a center that can utilize the hot water energy.
CLIMO wise it's inline with many small, weak tropical depressions and named storms there late in June.

Cons
It's moving fast because of the flow there and the High pushing it too quick to develop deep.
Models don't love it, they barely see it but I can list easily 5 small storms that developed big also.
Shear from the South is displacing the energy limiting it for now in North half, tho trying to wrap.

Extra Credit..........Small systems look crappy until they get very close to land then tighten up fast.
We see this all the time on radar. 
We saw it with Alberto, tho it did have more model support.


Tropical Depression?
What will NHC do at 5 PM?

Down the tropical road.
I see hurricanes forming in July.
Get a plan for hurricane season.


Just saying.

I'll update at 5 

*****
9 AM below



Introducing Invest 92L
Zoom Earth is awesome.
Especially before things develop.
Marks the spot and shows where it came from...



NHC this morning, now orange 40% in 2 days.
Do we get cherries by 2 PM?
What will they do??? 
Currently orange juice for the morning!


40% in 2 days. 
So close future radar picks it up.
Yet models having a problem finding it.
Very small, fast forming systems can elude models.


There it is in real time.
Earthlink...trying to close off.
Just off the coast.

Note we gotta a pattern going on!


It's a funny quandry in that models develop the Deja Vu system following the leader Alberto and yet are having problems seeing the area off the SE coast that's visible on satellite imagery. And, that is why NHC upped it to 40% orange and is watching it, as sometimes things "pop up" fast from this sort of set up and make landfall just as fast. Not talking a hurricane and lots of people in Jax and Augusta could really use the rain. 

2 days ago this happened.


Little shadow comet like system ...
..moved fast inland.
I said then it was a foreruner possibly.


This is what happens when the tail of an old front, hanging out over hot water meets up with an ULL to the SW that's kind of enhancing the spin a bit... closer it gets to land they sometimes come out of cloaking mode like some hidden space ship the Enterprise doesn't see until they do. I'm not the biggest Trekkie but I know that plot line.  If you look down near KW you see the ULL... to the NE you see 92L looking down at the ULL saying "thank you" and that's the story of the tropics in June too soon... minimal systems can pop up off SE coast and in BOC. Time will tell if this gets a TD sticker or a bonus B name of Beryl. In motion below. Upper Level Lows can be game changers you can't ignore. It helps here, might help in GOM later for the other Orange area we are watching which I'll talk on alter as 92L is up close and way too personal and possibly extremely sneaky. Either way what shows up there AFTER 92L is gone and what will the High propel Westbound or WNW and then NW depending on where and when?


I'd laugh off fast forming system.
People laughed at Julia.
Katrina formed fast... 
...good thing this is going into Jax ish vs GOM
Did 1935 hurricane really form from a TS fast?
This isn't a hurricane of any kind...
... but shows up on long range radar.
So don't ignore it.
Don't ignore the pattern!

Will update later today.
Recon goes in we learn more.
Maybe we learn in real time.
Models below.


EURO Windy. Rain filter below EURO


They don't align.... but they deliver wind and rain.
And maybe more.

Decent lil signature.
Models do not do well with mini signatures.
This is the NAM a short range model.
This is as short range as it gets...


Moves on in over Georgia!
To the E is a feed of moisture for Carolinas.


That's it for models.
I'll add a model in but want to post this now.

Below are thoughts.
If you like reading my thoughts.
Keep reading.
Song at the end :)

Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico as a tropical storm that sent flooding to far away places in Texas to the North. Not a very organized center, and yet the overall set up with the storm produced what will be a costly clean up and should be a warning to pay attention to the tropics this year as they will be full of surprises. And, as we move deeper into the Hurricane Season the systems will be more developed, eyes will be fully formed and banding will be wrapped perfectly and one or two hurricanes will have their names retired this year. That's not a prediction as much as a most likely statement based on the way the hurricane season is going and the way of the tropical world in a busy year. 

Get busy and prepare...now...not later.

Not all systems form from tropical waves that develop a sort of center early on and that center is visible during the whole long trek across the Atlantic. Some storms form from the Central American Gyre as did Alberto, a perfect example of a June system when it's June too soon for African Waves to roll off with a discernable center, but the Bay of Campeche is always ripe and ready to deliver a system into Mexico. The other type of early close in system we find often is when something develops off a dead, floating, lazy frontal boundary that doesn't go away. Add in some Upper Level Low and a High to the North and we can often get something spin close to the coast that seems to pop up but it's been out there a while. Models do not always pick up on these fast forming systems that like BOC features seem to tighten up as they approach the SE coast and dump tropical rains on places such a as farms in South Carolina and Georgia that could actually use the rain. 


Again I am NOT a meteorologist, but I have taken many meteorology and geography courses for my degree in International Relations, as everything has to do with weather and geography ... for example Russia needed a warm water port that wasn't frozen a good part of the year and that is the basis of the current political issues centuries down the not so tropical road. United States is blessed with rain during the growing season for farms up in the Plains that get moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. I've also done a lot of research at the NHC Library, and yet learned much from a few people I know in high places. I'm a history researcher at my core but I'll stand at the shore watching storm surge surging in blowing strong wind at me and watching sea foam dancing at my feet. I have a degree in English which is hard to tell from the way I operate on Twitter but hey it's 2024 does anyone really use grammar anymore?

Back to what could become Beryl if it plays it's hand just right.

Models are awesome at sniffing out tropical development, however often they offer phantom hurricanes that hit New Orleans or Houston and then the system goes to Mexico (of course) or curves up into the curvature of the Florida West Coast and a small storm forms near the Big Ben that is probably carved out from eons of tropical systems pounding into it..   (just a thought) and often tropical systems can spin up tight in the curve, the crook of the Georgia Bight that you can see below from Jax to Myrtle Beach. Note also there is that same curve near Texas just how the BOC cradles developing systems. Sometimes models have problems seeing systems such a as this one that form "suddenly" but they've been there but the models didn't see them while they were obsessing with 2 yellow circles in the GOM Alberto and it's now orange friend known as Invest 92L.  


That's the Georgia Bight.
Looks like one too many storms ...
...took a bite out of it!

Watch those curves in the coast.
From left to right.
BOC
Texas coastline.
Florida Big Bend.
Georgia Bight.


The curve of the coast helps spin up often.
Close in.
This is close in.
Watch it.
Where does it go....
...where does it end?

Stay tuned.
But....promise you there will be a hurricane..
..later in the season.
in this general area.
Models will be picking it up.
Are you prepared?
Why not?
You're a adrenaline junkie?
You like going to Publix when warnings go up?
Helps you focus?
Maybe but the good stuff may be gone then.
Canned oysters will where the tuna used to be.
Been there back in 1992.
This is only Invest 92L 
But......it should make you thik on Hurricane Prep.

Later Gator as my Grandma Mary would say!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter 
Mostly wxr twitter and Insta whatever.











Wednesday, June 19, 2024

..TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS 1st Named Storm of the 2024 Season Now Here On Way to Mexico. Can Yellow Circle in ATL Find It's Groove Too? Flooding in TX

 ..TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS


Not your Momma's typical Tstorm.


Yellow/orange is WIND
Little wind at the very broad center.
Not your typical TS signature.
But it did get a name.
It's fame will be the flooding far away.

Kind of karmic actually that the very first named storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season is the best example for why the NHC changed their cone, to highlight dangers outside the center of track in the infamous Cone. As the black warning always there on the Cone shows.... but I'm highlighting today as there are indeed many hazards far from the center of the small, developing tropical storm down in the South Gulf of Mexico headed towards a landfall in Texas. 

The details are above and details matter. So since details matter I want to put emphasis today on the fact that beach cities far from Alberto are having coastal flooding from a set up, from a pressure gradient that is sending huge, steady swells into places such as Surfside Beach where almost all the homes are built HIGH up on STILTS as that area is very prone to flooding from real hurricanes and similar set ups. 


Leading here with iCyclone because one thing I do love... appreciate about him he is all about facts and the truth. This is NOT all from a small developing tropical storm that looks like every other small tropical storm that formed down in the Bay of Campeache and hooked into Mexico that barely made a ripple on beaches far, far away. 


Note the tightly packed isobars N of Alberto.
That is what is propeling the water onshore in Texas.
That's what the flooding is from.
And, this isn't a sudden storm surge.
Different, though end result is flooding happens.


It's important people understand this and yes it's providing photogenic, awe inspiring images of a sea of water below covering all the homes by the beach and while it's compelling it's not from a small, typical early season tropical storm far to the South. It's the set up connected to the huge CAG that's spiraling around endlessly taking up a good part of the Eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico and a pressure gradient that is just propelling the water inland, incessantly being pushed inland and again that's why those homes are built high up on stilts. 


This is a satellite imager of Alberto.
Has that embryo look developing storms get.
There is weather everywhere as in a Super Storm.
But it's not a Super Storm it's a small TS

But this "set up" reminds me of other Super Storms.


Super Storm of 1993
Covered a lage area.
That's why we called it Super.

Current image below of Alberto...
and it's associated CAG
convection far away.


Going wide... 
..this is the beauty of weather.
So much is connected in the atmosphere.

The set up currently is different from the one that produced Hurricane Andrew or any westbound, hurricanes moving steadily towards landfall directed by the Highs and Lows that help dictate it's track in most circumstances. Later in the season we will have real hurricanes, big hurricanes and we will forget about Alberto and the huge gyre known as CAG ....though it'll be back later in the season. The end is always tucked in the beginning as the old saying goes and that especially happens in Hurricane Season when we revisit tropical systems forming around the Yucatan. 

History is filled with "junk" storms or as I might say picayune, pesky storms that need to form in the Bay of Campeache before we can move on real storms forming far away that will travel miles to go before they make landfall and possibly show up in history books years from now.

There are the facts today.
Alberto the Bottom Line from NHC


Broken down it reads... 

1. Don't focus on forecast track.
Rainfall and flooding far from the center.

2. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible.
Central America
Mexico
Texas.
Elevation plus rain equals flash flooding.

3. Moderate coastal flooding in Texas.

4. TS conditions in warned area.
Warned area for tropical storm conditions a huge area.
TS conditions far from center of Alberto.

Moving on to ATL side...


20% in 2 days.


There's more color, more convection today.


Watch the loop.
Whatever forms...if it forms.
Is gonna be propelled West.
W or WNW or ???
Moisture from Alberto feeds North.
A low will go to a low.
Basic.
???

Will it develop?
Time will tell.
I'm watching....


High to N pushing down.
Compresses.
Getting a bit of a circular form.


30%
Yellow circle around Alberto.
I can't.
I just can't.
We can deal with this later.

Need to take a shower....
...and move on today.
I'm done.
I want to have some fun!


I am so done with the whole CAG.
Want African Waves.

I am who I am.
No apologies.
I love weather.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather
Insta whatever

That's it for the day, unless something crazy happens later weather wise in the tropics. I'm going to watch videos from Texas. I've been to Texas numerous times, mostly driving through though spend the weekend in San Angelo (loved it) and never been down to the beaches there that do look beautiful. Maybe I'll put that on my list for places to go and things to do. But for now, got other things to do today and possibly tonight. 

Absolutely loved Gretchen Wilson a while back, blaring her lesser known songs on the radio before I played on YouTube or Spotify. And, yes I am the girl I am.... while I try to figure out what's missing and in what ways I want to start again. Need to make some minor changes in my daily routine, but I don't mean writing or the blog as I have gotten paid for writing for a long time and at times it's who I am. Need to figure a few things out and I will with multiple notebooks, pens, lists and music blaring in the background. Not gonna apologize for being in love with weather and geography and maps and music and dancing. Love research, researching history, hurricane history and all kinds of history (why you need maps) and writing and love being at the beach in a wild storm with the water all foamy and only a few surfers out there while chasers chase and locals come to take a look.  That's the girl I am.
























Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Many Questions on PTC 1 Forecats to Make Landfall As a TS - ATL Yellow Area Has Some Potential. New Yellow Circle ... Circling the PTC1 Area. 20/20 on Both.

 Staring with Wind Probs for PTC

Why?
Shows cities that could be impacted.
Directly impacted from a TS...
Cone below 

Cone, impacts far beyond the cone.
Especially with a messy storm.
Yellow and Blue warnings to the N of the Cone.

I will be honest and say that the Tropical Discussion from the NHC regarding PTC 1 described a pitiful mess, yet a reminder that this messy system has potential for developing into a tropical storm at some point before landfall. The center is not well defined, it has limited convection in the necessary places and the strongest convection associated with it is way over East of the Yucatan. Motion of the best guess center is North at 6 MPH. There are many questions regarding the reality of what is going on in this system, recon will go in later today and hopefully nail down some hard facts that will make the future forecasts easier to digest. It isn't even classifiable by the Dvorak, which says a lot and I put the sat image down below for you.

So what could happen? 

It pulls together, hooks left and comes in near the Tex Mex border, delivering heavy tropical rain at landfall and to the North of landfall along the beautiful Texas coastline and it's beautiful barrier islands. Heavy rain for Houston is still a concern, but is it from the flow or directly connected to the messy system that we aren't 100% sure where it is... but we can see it on sat imagery down below.

Or center reforms over stronger convection or just further to the North changing the trajectory of the Cone. 


Note the big pink, purple blob to the East or SE.
The broad, hard to define center.
Yet it does have an nice envelope ... 
Looks like it's sticking it's tongue out at us.


This is the Dvorak loop.
Not much of a pulse.

Longtime readers of this blog or those who follow me on Twitter know I look at the Dvorak often to see how strong a system is and if it's intensifying. A developing system looks much like the big blob in the bottom right corner (that NHC pointed out had the deepest convection) so you can see here by comparison how weak the middle of the there is..or isn't. 

One thing to remember is that the BOC/GOM has a history of fast development, close in near landfall often surprising a small town with a bigger, more intense storm than they expected from it's out of town reviews. 


Moving on................the NHC has 2 areas highlighted in yellow and both have 20% chances of forming; long chances but chances never the less. Yes, there's a chance....two actually.  The yellow X is far out still, yet there's a little feature scooting fast towards the East steadily that's not the yellow X but it's curious and hard to ignore. Is it a leading, trail scout checking out the Atlantic and reporting back to the Yellow X? Who knows, it's been a strange year, but it's hard to ignore it. IF something forms it could come in near St. Marys to Tybee Island (maybe) or it curves further to the North and visits the Boardwalk in Myrtle Beach. It's a real maybe, vs PTC 1 that's a definite maybe.

In truth this is what you get in June. Ever go to the first Pre-Season game for your favorite team and they look awesome, then they lose all their first games once the season starts. Kind of like watching models and getting excited and then a real center forms and they are nowhere near as impressive as the GFS showed them ten days ago. Though...the GFS did see a very fast moving little ball of energy moving fast, much like this little shadowy area is doing. The GFS often points the way, how we translate it or believe the details is on us. The pattern in the atmopshere is what the GFS is sniffing out long range. It's kind of set  up to fail, as it is using Xray Vision Telescopes to see into the future 384 hours away.

Nuff said. Let's take a look at the Atlantic Tropical Basin in the most colorful imagery.


From left to right.
Dark reds show up...however they are on the EPAC side of the Great Central American Gyre. Oops
         Models did consistently show "energy" bouncing around jaggedly from basin to basin.
The vertical yellow trough which is launching convection up into Texas as we speak, moving far to the N.
Between the Vertical "trough" we see nothing but kind of two little red dots. That's our PTC1.
The big red blob (looks a bit like a penguin) is the area of strongest convection "connected" to PTC1.
NE of that in the dark blue is that little shadow feature zooming towards Florida, curious but nothing more.


Looks like a blue comet this morning.
I find it interesting.
Previously I called the GFS storm a "meteor" moving fast.
Sometimes the model gets it right... we read it wrong.


Lead lil blob on left.
Darker blob is out yellow X
And, its kind of spinning better today.
On the Mimic.

To the right on the big image above you see a deep V neck (my mind) and that's where the X officially is, behind the comet looking feature above. 


Special points to red blob bottom right of large pic.
Seen above better.
That's a tropical wave that's lifting N of SA
Made it past the shear and is going where I wonder.
Well shear is "tickling" it....
....flares up way better than PTC
Far bottom right a potent new wave rolls off Africa.

That's it. As detailed as I can get. BOC systems are fun to watch out of the corner of my eye, but watching them form in real time (especially from a CAG) is like watching paint dry. Quasi systems off the East Coast often manifest into a name and no fame and the name never gets retired. Waves off of Africa will eventually get stronger, the Atlantic will be juicier with less SAL and they will be viable. We can see that week by week they are climbing higher, getting into position like a plane that leaves the gate on it's way to it's runway but is not yet ready to take off. 

I'll update later today if something more definitive is delivered from the NHC. And, to be very honest it is not easy to be the NHC in the current pattern that does have potential but is chaotic, unreliable and not the best environment for a system to form in even if the water is hot. Tropical development needs more than HOT water, as we have seen in many seasons when high expectations were dashed and dumped in the dumpster.  What happens in real time is the most important thing ...tho we love to read discussion and forecasts for how the season may unfold.

Besos BobbiStorm
Didn't sleep much last night.
Around 5 AM I woke up to this tune.

It's on my favorite JB CD.






























Monday, June 17, 2024

NHC Puts Out a Cone for PTC 1 That Should Become Alberto (In theory) while other Invest Shows Signs of Life in ATL...

Potential Tropical Cyclone #1

Salient points here are currently it has a poorly defined center at best, and movement in the short term may be erratic until it finds it's groove. Watches are up so places in the path of this potential cyclone can make preparations. Moisture associated with the system and the greater CAG will move towards the Central Coast of GOM as well as Texas cities far from it's forecast landfall in Mexico. Often systems such a as this can ramp up fast and come together just before landfall, so while it's not very threatening now ...do not ignore the potential for trouble with localized flooding at landfall and possibly deeper inland. Stay tuned, this is a heads up we have something coming together that may make landfall in 48 hours and we need to get the word out now while people have time to prepare. Coordinates below. Current movement NNW but expected to hang a left fast and hook in towards the Mexican coast.

20.3N  93.2W moving NNW

Wes is my on air Met in NC


Forecasted strength and points is below.


Wind Probs





 PTC 1 

Models 


Thoughts on the Set Up

One question for me is doesn't the "center" of what could become Alberto move back towards the EPAC or does the rain move up into the Rio Grande River Valley? While we are looking at heavy rains to the North of landfall, being shunted by the strong flow North to the Mississippi River Valley we could also have a flooding scenario in parts of Mexico. And, it's also possible that the leftover moisture, left behind from this Central American Gyre AKA CAG could produce another area to watch in the Gulf of Mexico. Lots to watch and a sort of dry run for when we begin development of tropical waves in a few weeks. 


The CAG is not pretty.
Well, maybe like a modern art pinwheel?
Focus on the center of the BOC... 

It is possible something else spins up.
From moisture left behind in GOM.
As what could be Alberto scoots fast to landfall.



In the ATL...
.... some consolidation of color.
And a nice signature on Earthnull.
Just my thoughts.
Could be a Georgia Storm.
How rare would that be?
We always think...
Florida or Carolinas.
Everyone forgets about poor Georgia.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
will Update with info as needed.
If there's anything definitive to say.