A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Saturday, October 19, 2024
Hurricane Oscar and TD Nadine. Tropics Saturday Night.
Look at that high pressure across the SE.
Lots of high pressure to go around.
Hurricane Oscar and TD Nadine.
Hello Saturday Night!
Back online looking at Oscar and Nadine. No real surprise here. Models showed this for a while, before dropping it and NHC lowering expectations and seems long range models were right.
Oscar's cone takes him sharply NE into the Atlantic.
What bugs me reading discussion from NHC ...
...and wind profile arrival time don't connect.
I know I've been offline but anyone ask this?
Itsy bitsy hurricane.
It's like the dots don't connect.
NRL map looks right.
Only curiousity here is Oscar's wind probs in that often there is every possibility, but they've got Jamaica in the Wind probs and this is a tiny (NHC words not mine) hurricane so shouldn't have such a wide wind prob profile. Then again they seem at a loss to explain the hurricane strength as their discussion explains none of their models showed that happening. So I wonder what else have their models not seen coming?
Being offline was actually nice. Really got to enjoy the beautiful Fall colors here outside, the sky so blue there's no name for that color other than "OH MY GOSH LOOK HOW BLUE THE SKY IS" when Carolina is beautiful it's beautiful. Nice friends, good food and a nice break from the day to day routine.
Will Nadine Form ? If So Where? Snow Fell Last Night in MTNS NC...PPL Sleeping in Tents and Their Belongings Strewn on Muddy Ground.
Let's start with the models.
Sort of basic. Westbound.
Some show it dying off...
..others show it doing Hispaniola.
See the one over Cuba??
Could be a curve ball down the road.
Ensemble models below:
Ye Olde Ensemble Models.
Always trying to please.
Some move towards the CAG system.
Some halt and fly off to NE.
94L been around a long time.
Many good Mets feel she's been a TD.
I can't totally argue that...
Looking at the radar ...
...there's a lil fly in the ointment.
That front lingering across S FL
Content Weather shows the front.
Blue is the front.
Blue skies, fresh air.
Stops and hangs over Central FL
The front is forecast to move thru S FL
and then ...move back up again.
See the kriss kross wind patterns below.
Clouds in GOM moving East...
I'm curious how this impacts 94L
IF 94L makes it here
and set up is the same.
Front digging down over East Coast.
94L under a ULL to it's N
(like a mini black fake Cane)
CAG has moisture.
Florida Straits
Models from windy.com show a traffic jam.
Moisture from CAG feeds up into FL Straigs
94L heads W towards that moisture.
But then.......
CAG links up, grabs moisture runs West.
94L gets grabbed and pulled back to the NE
EURO and ICON similar.
Truth is you can't ignore the reality that it's going to be harder and harder for a tropical system to spin into a nasty hurricane any time soon. Not to say something can't happen, but currently the tropics look more like early November vs a typical Mid October set up.
That's a strong signature.
Yes, moisture in Carib S of High Pressure.
Could turn coal into a diamond.
November tracks!!
I'm trying to be extremely focused and factual here today as I'll be away for the next few days and this will be the last thing I say about 94L and it's friend in the CAG ...as well as the Cold Front. This pattern is more like a November one and all we know for sure if we have a stubborn Invest that's come a long way. Looked better a few days ago but it's still going strong.
IR above, Visible below.
Still nice structure.
Convection in the middle.
Why this isn't a TD I don't know.
Not every TD has to become a hurricane.
So keep paying attention to any possible area that could develop as we are not yet done with October and we are not yet closed for tropical development! That simple. Can't rule it out, but with every day that passes and every cold front that drives down it's that much harder to get a hurricane going. But totally possible, not impossible.
I'll be offline until Saturday evening, things to do and there are plenty of people online who will weigh in with valuable thoughts! Stay well, stay safe and ever stop giving money or supplies to charities that are helping those in need in Florida and up in the Carolinas where snow fell onto muddy ground, littered with debris that used to be important part of the lives of those who died and those who survived with nothing else as their homes are gone or barely habitable.
We have a frost alert tonight in this neck of the woods. Out West there are survivors sleeping in tents and they could use supplies, winter clothing, blankets... endless list so find something and some way you can help, please.
Choose your tragedy ...your state and give what you can.
Nadine and Oscar. Will We See Them Form from Invest 94L & SW Carib Blob? Both Have Chances. Cold Fronts Moving Past Carolinas Down to Florida. 58 Degrees at 11 AM As I Write This Blog. Brr... Love It. Definitely They Have Chances... Keep Watching & Try & Catch The Comet Tonight!
Cold front top left!
Weak, wandering Nicole wannabe to the right.
Note high pressure above Nicole wannbe
Ps Nicole has a traveling partner.
Down in Carib ... Nicole or Oscar.
Depends if 94L does the deed!!
Nicole and Oscar the names up next!
Keep reading.
Remember I have a degree in English.
Writing... Creative and some Journalism.
So doing the forecast in poetry and prose.
Yes, there are colorful circles to follow, we will watch and see what they do so more on that further down the blog. Let's first discuss the steering currents and conditions they will deal with as they attempt to develop. There are equally stronger cold fronts that are sliding down...one after another... like strands of pearls across the South edging their way towards Florida. Invest 94L is trying really hard, put on a show for a while and then took a break when the NHC probably began getting interested and then took a break again. When Invests are in an area in the ocean that would seem wet as there is water there.... the atmosphere above it is dry still. As they inch closer to the more moist tropical islands they seem to perk up as if they smell really delicious Jamaican Blue Coffee in the tropical wind and pull it together with dreams of going far and finding fame and getting the best coffee anywhere!
The fly in the ointment is there are cold fronts and cold fronts do a few things: 1. They dig deep pushing high pressure down into the Caribbean. 2. They can pick up a developing storm and swing it out to sea into the Atlantic. 3. They can force the the storm or hurricane to barrel West until the high pressure weakens. 4. They can send a hurricane into Central America. 5. Eventually the steering currents collapse and if the storm is still there... things get interesting.
Who remembers Matthew's stall down by the coast of South America, totally ignoring land interence as ifi it wasn't dumping flooding rains on parts of the South American coastline? Finally, like Sandy it found it's way North navigating through the Windward Passage and grabbed the next cold front North.
Note while things like that can happen this time of year.... they are rare and usually only happen with extraordinary storms such as Matthew and Sandy. Stay tuned. Currently there are not tropical systems making landfall on CONUS (the US coastline) but we may have a threat to PR and the Virgin Islands IF it develops and keeps going the way it's going.
The SW Carib thing is at a yellow 30% and the orange thing is at a higher 60% "almost there" but it's friendly fan behind it is doing that thing that 2020s tropical systems do developing a blob behind it adding to jokes and threats to make a tee shirt with 2 blobs together and a smile. Mike asked if he should do that or... and all I can say is "hahaha" but any girl with Double Ds most likely isn't going to wear it unless really desperate for a guy to notice. Again, look at Matthew up above.... was bizarre and that was in 2016 so maybe it's a 2000 thing as I don't remember them doing this so often, but does make for jokes online and stunning weather art or as some say weather porn.
Okay........where was I? Keeping this Simple... right. The yellow jelly bean has higher chances of going into Central America, unless a piece it gets stuck behind and needs to be watched. Honestly, right?
The orange Atlantic cruiser that came from Africa still bears watching. Models are not consistent in the long game, while the short game is westbound or WNW and again the Islands need to watch it as does Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and I'd add Cuba. Florida will watch it no matter what but Flordians be digging through their closet looking for that strong cold front that's diving down.
Yes, true story.
Keep It Simple Silly.
So I'm done.
We wait, we watch and stay prepared.
In SFL we edge towards end of Hurricane Season.
I'm thinking there will be a curtain call of sorts still.
Invest 94L Has a Robust Circulation. Convection Trying to Keep Up With It. Models Short Term Move It West...Forms Close to Islands... Then ???? Stay Tuned.
Perspective is important.
50% in the 7 day. 10% in 2 day.
Models below show why we are talking on it.
Models are problematic.
So it bears watching.
First the models show it stays low, that's easily seen by watching Water Vapor Loop as high as to the North of it and just as an African Tropical Wave showed up in October so did the missing high Pressure in the Atlantic, go figure. Consistent right?
As it approaches the Islands the conditions are more favorable for development as shear should be lower (in theory) and the water is warmer and not as dry as the MDR has been. There are cold fronts moving down and it is possible it could get picked up by a cold front but it's just as possible it could continue West under any other ridges of high pressure departing cold front's supply. This is the long tracker the 2024 hurricane season denied many who originally thought we'd have lots of August and September African Wave Train hurricanes to track. Currently it's just an Invest, remember that and the area where it most likely forms has a ways to go.
Moving at a fairly rapid clip.
Trying to hang onto that convection...
...near the center.
IF it had more convection as it looks better convection wise today than yesterday, I'd think this would be upgraded to a Tropical Depression as it has an incredibly tight circulation visible on both visible satellite imagery as well Earthnull. I get it's far out, but this is one impressive signature as you can see below.
Only fly in the ointment is that little......
...pimple like feature to the SSE.
Hmnnn
Let's move down the road.
Clearly present in blue and purple...
...is cold front and high pressure over the South.
New cold front moving thru Carolinas today.
Down in the SW Carib is colorful convection.
In the EPAC as well..
The CAG is healthy.
Note Bahamas has moisture.
How low does this new front go?
Much hangs on this down the road...
..and the next front!
Earthnull shows the CAG.
Bit on either side of Panama.
Again this is one geographic region.
Land bridge separates it.
But influences merge often.
Bottom line:
I will definitely say this Invest is bugging me and I can't just write it off because "hey it's October, what'a a tropical wave doing there this time of year?" as we began the season with a Cat 5 Hurricane making landfall on an island that barely ever gets a Cat 1 Hurricane as it's got a sort of "hurricane shadow" much the way Raleigh gets a "snow shadow" and we rarely get snow. So a June too soon... Tropical Wave barreled into the Islands intensifying into a Category 5 on July 1st. Obviously, 2024 isn't playing by the rules. And, the set up denies fast intensification therefore it gets forced to the West to develop close in and that usually means trouble for someone, T with a capital T as in Tropical Storm then a Hurricane.
Can Hispaniola break it up? Sure. But last few model runs show it sneaking around Hispaniola moving to the North of it ...though it would still (in theory) put some brakes on development as part of it's circulation would be overland. What if it misses Hispaniola? That could be a problem. It could be lifted and miss the Islands as it moves up into the Atlantic and Bermuda needs to watch. Or.........it's a problem for South Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba. Any system that misses the Islands and moves up and over the Islands the way your typical September hurricane might do would develop over the warm waters in The Bahamas or over the Gulfstream or the Florida Straits and well you get the picture.
Again this all comes down to watching the front "ye older watch the front set up" and as it's October we do have cold fronts! If the front is deep it could just spin into the Gulf of Mexico or through the Caribbean into Central America. If the front is strong enough to lift it but not grab it and pull it up the East Coast... it could get tricky, much like the rest of it's 2024 Hurricane Siblings.
Ps yes I said "up the East Coast" and no nothing is screaming it'll do that but I cannot take that off the table.
So everyone's in it.
And IF anything formed from the CAG then that could impact future steering currents.
Stay tuned... Hurricane Season is far from over.
Lots of time to watch and everyone will be watcing.
Invest 94L vs Caribbean Blob. Everyone's Talking But No One Has Solid Answers. Gorgeous Fall Day in Raleigh NOT Wasting It Watching Models That Change Every Couple Hours. Bottomline --- It Has a Chance.
Let's start here. 94L
X marks the spot it is currently.
Arrow shows you "formation zone"
It can literally form anywhere....
...in that big yellow sausage.
Not a Cone.
Just a Zone of formation.
Remember that.
Up close and personal.
Look at that spin!
Beautiful structure.
Banding, nice center.
We see it well as it's "naked"
Phrase Mets use to mean...
"convection being sheared"
See the one little puff going South?
I won't lie this is one aestically beautiful swirl known as Invet 94L out just West of Africa and because there's a high to it's NE and then another one forms above it soon it is forecast to get way farther West than Kirk or Leslie even dreamed. That doesn't mean it's going to hit Miami, Tampa or New Orleans all the cities on the media parade of cities to travel to while covering a landfalling hurricane. Lots of fun and lots of attention but it doesn't mean it could not be an issue IF it stays alive and thrives and gets into our part of the Hurricane Basin. First comes the Islands and if it forms closer in to the Islands then it's a problem for the Islands and as we stairstep our way WNW or into the Caribbean we will wonder and worry if it could make a USA landfall. Bermuda will be watching too, trust me.
Positives:
Incredible tight beautiful circulation especially from far away.
Looks like the Cosmos in ways..
It's far, far away.
Negatives:
As it's blocked from escaping up into the North Atlantic currently if it gets into our part of the world it could be pulled North close to our beautiful coastline and we will need to watch. First it has to stay alive and prosper. It needs to keep it's convection vs losing it's convection
Let's go wide.
94L is that round green ball in MDR.
Close to Africa still.
So you must be wondering:'
"OMG what's in the CARIB?"
Convection.
Blob of convection being watched.
Doesn't have a circle even.
The video below addresses that.
Again...
When there's black to the North.
That's dry air, high pressure.
To it's West is moisture.
It's stuck down there for now.
A Blob vs an Invest 94L
If I was a gambler I'd say
"here's where you place your bets!!"
I'm not a gambler.
Neither are sure things.
So we gonna sit and watch....
watch satellite imagery
watch football
watch the beautiful fall colors
breathe in, breathe out
What's life all about...
Not going to waste my day...
..waiting on the next model run.
If you have nice weather.
Get out there and enjoy it!
It'll be gone soon.
Like the Northern Lights...
(oh my gosh I fell in love)
...last night just a hint of purple.
Then gone.
Til next time....
Faintest column of purple
Barely there in the Indigo Sky.
Have a blessed, beautiful day!
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather...
...Insta whatever.
If you know you know... IYKYK
Once upon a time there was a weatherman...
...named Dave Schwartz on TWC
He loved this song.
Sometimes he'd even dance for a minute late at night on air.
Northern Lights Last Night Dazzled Everyone Who Saw Them... Needed Some Uplifting. Rumors on Development in SW Carib. Watching. Please Donate to Reliable Charities for Helene & Milton Relief.
First off... It's not on the 7 day by the NHC. Yes, NHC has seen models. Yes, I have seen models. Something could develop but... ..signals mixed and weak currently.
As you can see in the beautiful satellite image below that is the one that will show anything if it's there as the colors are bright and beautiful and make every little drop of convection show best in bright reds. And, syes down in the SW Carib there's the area we are all watching, waiting on models to give us better guidance and personally waiting to breathe for a day or two more before jumping back in the ocean of tropical discussions on a possible new named storm. Being honest. If I thought it was a semi-immediate concern I'd be all over it here on the blog and on X. There's weather there and we are watching it. We are at that stage where models come, go, see it and lose it and spray possible tracks everywhere and mostly I'm talking ensemble models as regular models still showing a very weak system. I don't rely on models that far out and usually it takes a few days after a Major Hurricane such as Milton to leave for the atmosphere on many levels clears out on multiple levels, especially upper level atmosphere.
Also note the signs of the cold front in the Atlantic off the Carolinas, beautiful light blue dots in a sea of dark blue. Also note down below in the Eastern Caribbean there are colors of almost violet in the blue, that remind me of how the sky looked last night when the Northern Lights came out in the Carolinas and danced and shown this wild Violet hue.
We are moving deeper into Autumn, the windows are open here and it's freezing with the ceiling fan on low that I am slow to turn off. I wore my favorite black Victoria Secret's hoodie last night when we went for a drive to where it was darker to see the lights better and by the time we got there shade of blue and green mixed in as the violet went away replaced at times by bright Barbie Pink and then they dimmed.
Black and white above.
Blue WV loop below.
Isn't that beautiful.
Invest 94L is by Africa.
Short term curves, long term questions.
Keep an eye on it...
..while obsessing on Carib as some of you are.
Speaking of Carib
Purple splotch...
Nadine and Oscar next 2 names.
Carib has a purple splotch
So there's the Carib area.
Lower chances than African Wave.
But should be a yellow circle eventually there.
I'm not posting models as they are only until the next model comes out and there's always a model running somewhere. This is not rocket science, it's October... heading into Mid October and there's one general track they all take with various slight differences. Michael hit Panhandle of Florida, Matthew hit Carolinas and Sandy hit NYC all October systems that went "Boo!" in October. There are variations based on where they form and the currents that week so the map is below, models are within that guide. Generally GFS is bullish and other models not so much. EURO more interested currently on African Wave Invest 94L.
Sorry for any typos, allergies with eyes today is bad even with allergy meds and I'm okay with that as it means the weather is changing, it's cool and beautiful and trees are changing colors.
I'll be back on Sunday morning to discuss what we have and maybe by then it'll be a colorful X in the Deep Carib.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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