A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, January 22, 2025
Snowed in Raleigh. Over an Inch... Sunshine and Snow Beautiful Tho It's a Cold 21 Degrees as I Post this Blog. Can We Get Another Snowfall? I Believe So!
Mitch says this all the time....
...but a picture is worth a ton of words!
My yard is filled with snow.
There's fake snow falling from the tree.
Bit of a breeze blowing.
It's 20 degrees as I type this...
...and birds playing in trees.
Makes the snow fall..
As close as I've gotten in NC this year as seeing snow falling in the daytime! It keeps snowing after the sun sets and that leaves me standing outside in the cold staring at a light trying to capture the snow falling in the dark and I want daytime snow falling from a Carolina sky sometime this Winter. And, considering this is the second snowfall, I'm fairy sure there will be a third. Again I can go to the snow, but I like when the snow comes to me. Each time you remember how beautiful the neighbor's roof looks with snow on it or the deep green pine trees swaying a little in a cold breeze and how pretty the neighbors back door on her porch looks covered in snow.
It's a try a new Nespresso flavor day!
Peanut Sesame. Hmnn.
Was wondering.
Actually reminds me of Halvah.
I love Halvah.
I love snow!
Sipping my Nespresso watching the little bluebirds flutter around the maple tree, snow falling in a fine mist as if it's snowing. Fake Snow!! I'll go outside for a walk when it warms up a bit, maybe to 30 degrees. Just sipping Nespresso and enjoying the surprisingly awesome tastes as I just tried a new set of capsules in honor of our rare, random snowfall.
A Little Bit of Snow History Repeating in the Deep South. Rare but Can Happen Especially With a Polar Vortex Plunging South.
My father used to say ....
..God has a funny sense of humor.
Will go with that one.
Hurricane House is covered in Snow :)
I've always loved the unusual as long as it doesn't involve a serial killer or something. My friend Sue Ellen would appreciate that joke but you know what I mean. A rare burst of snow in the Deep South or a busted forecast that was for a glazing suddenly delivers 6 inches! I've heard it said that busted forecasts usually bust most often when it's a big bust; historical weather the models missed and no one expected are always wild.
Josh, aka @iCyclone, named his beautiful new home in Bay Saint Louis "Hurricane House" and it's currently getting what to many people down that way would call a blizzard. Joking, but there's always that one person! Well definitely those who did not witness the 1963 Winter Storm that dumped that 10 inches of snow on his homesite.
I always double check this and indeed, 10 inches plus!
New Year's Eve storm of 1963 that obviously left snow on the ground as they started 1964!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Year% You will note things began with a system down by the Yucatan that came together with the upper air patterns of COLD COLD COLD that dipped LOW LOW LOW and it snowed and snowed and snowed! Love history and I especially love weather history. History repeats. History is often one of the greatest stories you can read up on and often you can watch it in real time. In this case the Winter Storm was across a huge part of the USA. It was a deadly storm, check the link out below if you want to know.
In 1977 it snowed in Miami and when I say snow I don't mean that the ground was covered, but cold enough for it to drop enough flakes on car windshields to draw the date and take a picture. Actually a few areas far inland where the weather drops fast had enough to make a snowball, before it melted. That's what I'm told by people who never forgot seeing snow falling in Miami.
When I lived in LA I never saw snow fall.
A friend in Torrance saw some flakes.
Near the beach I believe.
Maybe
I know Malibu ... Pacific Palisades saw flakes!
I lived in West Hollywood in those days.
No snow of the weather variety.
As for my life in Raleigh.
I am in Raleigh today.
This is the most upside down weather map ever.
Normally it's reversed and the coast seems nada.
But hey it's 2025 and anything goes.
Right? Right!
I'm in the Dusting to 2 inches.
I'll see soon enough.
Not holding my breath....
.....my hoping!
Think I'll call the big guy Desperado
So.......wherever you live and whatever you are doing I hope you are doing it with love and happiness and a good sense of humor. I know many hate winter, I am not a hater. I love it. A huge hawk like bird the shape of an owl stopped on my fence today and just sat looking around. Usually it's high up in the Pines, but seeing as it sits there for the longest time was wild. Different. Didn't want to go outside and scare it away. Was about 23 degrees up there in the trees so maybe was warmer on the fence? Who knows, but it flew away and life goes on today. Maybe I'll get a trace of snow, hope so, but not holding my breath and hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Not a political comment, but it's cute to see Marco Rubio make the move to DC in a new job as he's a "home boy" for me as I grew up in the West Miami area. Great place to live, while we lived there before moving to Miami Beach which is prettier but not the same. West Miami kids are great, an odd mix of cultures all living together out in the suburbs. I have a brother who lives by the Bay downtown and he goes out to Bird Road to get a taste of the old neighborhood and some of the better restaurants in Miami are actually out on Coral Way or on Bird Road and they are way more affordable than the ones in Brickell or Miami Beach!
The Trouble With Winter Weather in the Coastal South. Deep South. Savannah - Charleston - Wilmington NC & What Sort of Winter Weather?
A look at the WV for the USA
Shows the dip from the North... ...and the constant FLOW... East. Where these meet up is everything.
There's energy moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
The trouble with living in Raleigh is that every once in a while the Winter Weather goes Deep and so DEEP that it misses you as it races along to your South and does odd things like snowing on the beach in Wrightsville. So many ways to miss out on snow here in Raleigh and yet we do get snow more often than many other Southern towns as we are after all in NORTH Carolina. Sure hope we don't miss out ....
The trouble with Winter Weather in the Deep South is that it all depends on what sort of Winter Weather you'll be getting. Yes, into capitalization today as it emphasizes the relevant, salient points here. Back a while we got a wild dose of Winter Weather in NC and in Charleston it snowed deep enough to take pictures standing in the snow smiling and yet parts down along the coast got more Ice than snow. The pretty coastal Carolina Palm Trees sort of collapse inward after they thaw from ICE and it's not pretty, not scenic and really not very tropical. But, then again Myrtle Beach is not Miami which is tropical and rarely has to worry on frozen precipitation let alone an Ice Storm. People love seeing snow on the beach in the Carolinas and it melts really fast. In 2018 Wrightsville had enough surprising snow that someone built a snowman and took a fast picture. Snow on the beach in Maine is totally normal, but not in the Carolinas.
We once moved to Savannah, something most people aren't aware of as we didn't tell anyone we might be moving. I love Savannah, there's an awesome community there and it's a place I really would like to live except that it really, rarely gets snow and it's hellishly hot in the Summer. The lack of snow chances bothered me, but about 7 years ago it did snow some and everyone was excited and then life went on. It didn't work out and it was just as well as Covid happened a few months later and shut down the city for a long while and Raleigh was a good place to be during Covid while the really wonderful community we wanted to move to was shut down in Savannah. Still Savannah is one of my favorite places to visit. Distant cousins are everywhere there in the Bonaventure Cemetery (giggling but true) and have made some good friends who are alive and happy to live there. Maybe One day...........
But for a weather girl.......you add up the positive and negatives.
SNOW and HURRICANES in NC
Savannah ranks low on both of those .... tho who knows, as I said maybe one day.
Jax is good too, but that's for another blog in January.
A bit of snow is good, as long as nothing kills the hanging moss.
Snow in Jax or Tally is a rare but semi-common treat in wicked winters (not capitalized) and it awesome for photo ops. Happens more than people realize, all the cool kids drive up (a long drive from Miami) to get a picture. Rarely enough for a snowball fight, but flakes falling fast then melting when the sun comes out strong.
Too much of a good thing can really put a damper on the fauna that's so beautiful in the Coastal South.
That's all that I'm saying.
Snow in Tampa would be cool!
Tampa has better chances of snow than Miami and when it does snow a little, there's a whole lot more than Miami got! South of The Lake it's really, really hard to get snow! But hey, it's 2025 anything goes, right?
Who Do You Believe? Which Forecasters? Gotta Weather App You Trust? What's Your Favorite Model?
51 degrees in Raleigh.
Back to watching models for snow.
Because in January it's all about snow.
I have a small bit of snow in my very shaded, backyard that'll probably melt away today. We are back to watching models and weather apps and in the long range they are about as reliable.
Reliability in forecasting is one part gift, one part knowing the lay of the land geographically and also knowing which models to trust and when to trust them. Anyone can go on Tic Toc and scream in a scared voice how it's going to snow so much they may get 15 feet and yeah perhaps for many it's entertainment as the more bizarre someone is on social media, the more clicks they get..... but do you really trust them? I have a brother who sends me the most bizarre scatological humor that he seems to find funny, and while I've known people with scatalogical humor they usually are funny but some of the stuff found online is just bizarrely strange. You watch someone dressed like Carmen Miranda promising someone like my brother that Miami will get snow and personally if she could do theMerengue while giving her forecast I might find her amusing too.........but no...........Miami is not getting a blizzard and the Panhandle isn't really forecast to get 15 feet of snow. But a good part of Florida may freeze, get some snow and how but how far South will that go? It has snowed in Miami before, but it was just snowflakes melting in the Florida sunshine on their way down.
As we say in Miami "yeah... NO!" but hey social media is often all about entertainment!
Many on X like to complain about weather apps as they almost always promise you snow on the 10th day, every day in the same way the GFS often hits New Orleans with a Cat 5 at the end of it's very long run. After a few days of slamming Nola with a Cat 5 the same model hits Miami with a Cat 5 Hurricane, before going back to Nola again. Note neither New Orleans nor Miami were hit by a hurricane directly, let alone a Category 5 in 2024. But hey long range models party on........giving you promises and more promises and each time you click on the link like Charlie Brown kicking Lucy's football.
Note Francine did make landfall in Louisiana.
Terrebonne Parish.
Not New Orleans.
Miami did get some watches and warnings.
But no Cat 5 in Miami in 2024!
Just those memories of model graphics!
Weather apps and models do this in Winter too!
They always promise snow falling on the 10th day.
Reality is that as much as meteorologists often make fun of weather apps and long range models, we all watch, we all sneak a peek and we don't expect them to verify more than 3 days out for a Winter Storm. To be honest it's a cheap thrill!
I'd rather people have a weather app on their main screen (and trust me many do not) than just watch random videos on TicToc or a meme on Facebook. There are some good meteorologists are on Tic Toc and some apps are more careful than others providing data.
But we are far from a time in a galaxy long ago when your mother stood by the television watching the news waiting to see her favorite weather person tell her the weather. News is packaged these days and depending on your political beliefs you generally follow one feed or the other. I mean Lord Have Mercy, we can't get along long enough to stay on the same social media? Annoys me. A good friend I cared alot about who loved music used to tell me when Music Apps came out it was going to spoil everything as people would put in Jazz or Country, Classical or Opera into their specifications and never listen to anything else again. Hate to admit, but he was right. On a radio station you were likely to hear some song you might not have listened to otherwise and found a new love musically speaking. Larry Cosgrove is as good with music as he is with weather and believe it or not I didn't know who Camila Cabello was but he did and suggested people watch her video. Generally I'm in North Carolina and she wasn't as popular here as she was in Miami where she grew up. My son's girlfriend actually was in Choir with her in high school, how cool is that? Small world in Southwest Miami. But when you only listen to Jazz or Country you miss a lot out there in the rest of the world. Same thing goes for only sticking to one social media.
As a young mother living on the West Coast in West LA I didn't know much about California weather, which by the way spoiler alert ....it doesn't get much "weather" so I spent alot of time reading up on Geology and the early history of Ranchos in LA. But, hey when it does rain it pours. I watched the local nightly news to catch "Dr. George" who was an Icon in the LA Basin and I learned a lot about Comma Clouds and the Pineapple Express and Santa Ana Winds. And, trust me when Dr. George pointed out a concern for Santa Ana Winds you KNEW some part of the Southland was going to burn. You KNEW and when I lived in Miami people trusted Bryan Norcross and when he was concerned on a new model and suggested the hurricane might do something different from the official forecast you listened and actually many ran to Publix to buy water "just in case" because when you have grown up on Miami Beach surrounded by water and you can't use the water coming out of the sink... you buy water "just in case" even if the struggling tropical storm has not become a hurricane yet if someone you trust says it might be a problem.
So go for it... watch models, tell time by models and keep checking your weather app to see if there's a snowflake on it but know anything past the five day in the winter weather world models rarely ever verify exactly!
A possible snowstorm in the Carolinas....
....is currently over China.
Winter Storms form in real time, anything can happen or change and as Content Weather who used to be Cranky Weather who will always just be CW to me............said recently the winter storm we are all watching has not left China yet. He knows, he's wise and a voice worth listening to. (Notice I ignore rules I learned in English classes because it's 2025 and online has it's own grammar and anything goes)
It SNOWED! And... Sleet & Freezing Rain with ICE. A Raleigh Lasagna Storm... A Little Bit of Everything. Long Range Models Smell Snow Storm Down the Road.
Ps the sunset in Raleigh is not Miami.
So it snowed! To be fair ...first there was sleet that was net, little balls of sleet the size of poppy seeds (really) then bigger sleet then sleet had a beat and was dancing on the top of the car just before sundown on Friday. I got a few pics and some video and then.........it was Shabbos (something I do from Friday at Sundown to Saturday after the sun goes down) and by then it was dark so no pics! My backyard had snow, with a layer of crusty ice on top of it but not so bad that we lost power or much happened before the sun came out and melted most of it all!
Saturday morning the trees glittered like they had diamonds in them as the sun came out and fast moving clouds chased the front down to the beach and for a few hours Raleigh had the illusion of a beautiful Ice Storm, a Crystal Palace and then as my neighbor's child said "the trees were raining on us" and there was a waterfall of rain pouring down from the huge Oak Tree :)
Loved it. I still have some snow in the back as it's shady and faces the North and there's snow still at sunset while much of Raleigh has only memories of the first winter weather in almost 3 years.
Now that our big winter weather event is in the books, models are racing on down the road in search of the next big snowstorm promising over 20 inches (yeah really.......no don't bet on it) as the GFS is always in Dreamland ready for the next party.
Understand for Raleigh to get snow (real snow) with this sort of set up the white arrows have to be in the perfect spot to direct the moisture (snow) to us with the diving cold, icy air. This is like doing a tango and ballet step while on ice skates. It's not easy. Brad Panovitch is extremely good, cautious and this is in the category of "watching the pattern" vs believing anything this far out will verify. If this was a hurricane, the tropical wave has not left Africa but still the Islands would be nervously watching. Okay, many in Miami would be watching in the tropical weather world.
Chick to my South in Fay-ville is adorable.
Smart, sassy and a darn good weather person!
If you're in NC please follow him!
He has dubbed the long range GFS #Club384
It's beyond the 10 day.
Pattern watching as we call it.
This reminds me of when models for Harvey....
..showed crazy totals.
We laughed.
Some said it was smoking something.
It verified.
That happens once ever 384 hundred times maybe.
I'll be honest. I had to pick a time to go to Denver to see my son and his family, my awesome daughter-in-law and 2 kids and though I knew I'd see snow and winter weather in Colorado but I didn't want to miss it here in Raleigh so this had to be figured out carefully. Plus I had things I had to attend to in Raleigh the 3rd week in January around the time when it is very likely Raleigh could get winter weather if early trends verify. That means how I read the Water Vapor Loop, the pattern and the fact that two weather people in the area I respect both said that it would be a period we could see winter weather BEFORE the the GFS AKA #Club384 as we now call it chimed in with way more than a foot of snow. If only...
I saw snow in Denver.
Came home and caught snow in Raleigh.
WIN! WIN!
AccuWeather never afraid to go out on a ledge...
I've lived in NC going on 16 years or as I like to think of it as Sweet Sixteen and to be honest people here never shut up about those few storms that over produced and people had to walk home from Durham or Chapel Hill or whever they were going to college back to North Raleigh. I'd like to see over 6 inches. I have seen over 6 inches here, by the way... of snow with ice on top to be clear! Mind you my son in Colorado gets that often and then the sun comes out and it does try and melt.
Colorado is pretty.
California is where he was born, back when I lived in the Southland (not Miami) but now I'm in Carolina I want more snow, more.........lots, falling in big white flakes covering the ground and turning everything into a real winter wonderland not like the make believe one we had this past week.
I'm 2 for 2 as I've seen snow now for 2 weekends in a row. What's next around the January 20-23rd time frame I'm wondering. Is Accuweather just trying to make me smile or it's seen the long range predictions we are all looking at today. Or do they just throw in a random date (put a snowflake there, there's a chance) or is there some science to it? Do I really care? No I just want snow. Oh and another Northern Lights moment here as well. Maybe after the snow when high pressure digs in and the sky is clear and it turns purple again as if I'm in Alaska!
So that's the story of.......snow dreams in the Piedmont of Carolina, somewhere between our beautiful mountains and sweet, magical beaches.
Will It Really Snow in Raleigh? Real Snow? Sleet or Freezing Rain?? Will the Virga Monster Gobble Up All the Snow? So Many Questions ... Snow Arrives Soon... If Snow Dreams Come True!
This may be an old fashioned BobbiStorm Blog filled with thoughts and honesty and less images as at this point the models are not important and only the radar and satellite imagery tells the story. That blue line is moving in on RDU rapidly, as I thought it might, and I prepared earlier to get things done so I could stop and write and dump my thoughts as this storm system has been a fast mover and has overproduced in cities along the way where it stopped and delivered winter weather stronger and earlier than expected.
Weather evolves in real time, models are only so good and give a good indication of what may happen, but when it begins to snow or sleet then we really finally know.
Raleigh is a beautiful place to experience Spring in the South and Fall is awesome. Summer is hot, humid, there is absolutely no air movement and so beastly that I actually I go to Miami for Summer... says a lot! But Winter is beautiful for someone who loves green pines intermixed with bare branches interwoven reaching out in all directions while ths sun sets and through them you see a colorful sunset in shades of coral and orchid that only shows up in the Winter. The sky only shows up in the Winter as otherwise it's a green, verdant city heavily forested and sky is cloaked in all the green. I love the Winter here. I also love snow and snow rarely shows when it's supposed to but when it does it's awesome!
Some people hate it, it's inconvenient and I suppose shows they are not in charge just because they want to be. The power of weather aka Mother Nature is in control and may snow on your party. Or not.
I moved here during several snowy years when silly me I thought it always delivered messy "lasagna storms" with both snow, sleet and sometimes freezing rain all mixed together so that when you walk outside your boots sink down into the various layers with a crunchy sound as if you're eating the world's largest potato chip! Maybe a corn chip, they make more noise when eating them and I used to eat BBQ Corn Chips but now I rarely eat chips unless it's a holiday! I bought Terra Chips in case it does snow and I get the munchies! I get high from snow! I get high from weather!
I love weather!
Never stop chasing.
But sometimes I want the weather to chase me.
Snow in Colorado was incredibly beautiful. But it's supposed to snow in Colorado! Loved it!
I finally got to see Colorado State University, go figure, and yes the Aspen is oh my gosh incredible in the snow and I'm sure it is indeed beautiful in the Fall as I've been told so maybe next Fall I'll go and see for myself!
Today I just want to see snow falling in my backyard. It's that simple. I'm not a hater, I'm a lover.
And, I love snow so I'm giddy like a school girl about to see snow for the first time after I moved up North and I'm still in awe of it all.
So check back Sunday to see what exactly happened and what if anything we really got. Mother Nature can be a heartbreaker in Raleigh even when you see snow moving in on the radar. Sometimes there's a Virga Monster :(
Sweet Snowy Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
Prayers for everyone in California, a place I lived and loved ...tho it was a bit stingy with the snow in it never rains in Southern California.
LA Fires... Listening to KTLA.... Watching Palisades, Malibu Burning. Fires Spread Across LA County
All the weather people are up at 4 AM. Because we know that until the winds die down there can be no handle on the fires. And, what we don't know is how many people may have died from this truly apocalyptic tragedy that bookends the floods in the mountains of Western North Carolina from Hurricane Helene. People in Miami would ask me how I could live in LA with earthquakes and I'd say big ones happen less often than hurricanes and every where you go there's something that can rip up your world. But, in truth we worried when we heard there would be Santa Ana Wind conditions knowing fire could erupt, flare up and explode as chaparrel explodes and flings fires far away to a new location that explodes and it goes on and on until the winds die down.
Checked on my local snow forecast.
Then I checked on the fires.
LA is burning, one fire at a time.
I woke up at 3 AM checked my phone and well you know the way that goes. So I sit here listening to KTLA Live trying to follow or just keep up with the fires burning in the LA Basin and it's associated canyons and basically anywhere a spark from one fire has landed onto another starting a new fire. I spent years of my life getting my news from KTLA and it's my go to sources for LA news especially when there's breaking news.
It's complicated. Fires have jumped Topanga Canyon and are moving into Malibu as well as further North up into the hills, all of the hills it seems. There are fires in the Valley and far to the East just North of Pasadena. A single burning ember can travel way more than a mile in wild, whipped up winds near hurricane force and immediately land on dry chapparel starting a new fire. It's hard to comprehend as it's not your regular forest fire.
You can't really understand how bad this is unless you know and if you know you know.
1) If you have lived there you know.
2) You need to understand topography.
3) You need to understand the geography.
4) You need to understand botany and how chaparrel explodes in a fire and gets caught in the wind!
5) You need to understand meteorolog.
The list goes on and on ... as it's very complicated.
Power lines are down and people are unable to get calls out to 911 when they call to report a new fire. Fire dances along power lines, did you know that? Well sometimes and video of that earlier this evening dances in my mind.
This is very much like what happened in Western NC except this was fire and that was flooding. Either way the fires follow the brush and ride the canyons up and down beginning new fires that cannot be put out in winds of over 70 MPH and gusting as high as a 100 MPH if reports are accurate. Homes up in the mountains are beautiful, but a worst case scenario in fires or floods. And, in the case of LA proper there are and will be more fires far from the canyons or the Palisades that sit regally above parts of Santa Monica; an architectual treasure trove of Mid Century Modern homes that teeter at the edge and have or had views of the Pacific Ocean you can't imagine. Hard to fight a fire if you can't go up and drop water onto it as you cannot fly in these winds nor these conditions. Winds are not expected to die down until Wednesday late in the day and by then we may have a realistic damage report as well as how many people may have died while trapped in burning buildings or on the roads trying to escape.
Much tests our souls.
F. Scott Fitzgerald once said "in the real dark night of the soul, it is always 3 in the morning" and in this dark night of the soul the fores are raging on and on as fires burn out of control in LA County. I lived in LA and there were so many fires, then again I lived there during a strong El Nino that whipped the fires in the hills that leapt from one town to the next, jumping from rooftop to rooftop as well as raging in the hills near Studio City as my husband and I drove past a new fire that had just begun to engulf the hillside along the Ventura Freeway watching in real time. The air inside the car was hot and the fire crews had not gotten there yet to try and put it out as we drove back into West Hollywood from the Valley where my in-laws lived. Seeing fire like that on a windy, evening in LA is humbling, there isn't much to say or do but pray.
Miami has it's hurricanes and LA has Santa Ana Winds and fires, though you can add in homes falling down the hillside after the fires destroy all the vegetation and occasional earthquakes. People ask me if the Death Card and the Tower Card predict tragedy and bad times and I tell them "only if they show up together in one reading" and once I was turning the cards for a friend and saw both in the spread and thought "darn, that's not good" and that's what I am saying about what's going on in LA in the middle of the night in their time, but a few hours from dawn in my time zone. Throwing cards can be therapeutic more than actually telling the future which no one can do or people would have evacuated last Sunday from the Pacific Palisades. But.......watches and warnings were out and the red flags were flying as this was heavily forecast!
Going back to sleep if I can.
I'll think on the fires tomorrow and I'll be obsessing on my chances of snow in Raleigh.
Prayers for LA. Not everyone in LA County is a movie star but every person there tonight has a story to tell and a novel that could be written about them and what they are going through as they face the reality of a changed world, charred and changed beyond imagination when they woke up on Monday morning to start their first full week of 2025!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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