45 Days Til Atlantic Hurricane Season - 28 Til EPAC Begins! A Look Back at Winter Storm Patterns. Rare High Snow Totals Along the Hurricane Coast.

 

Let's talk 2025 Hurricane Season....

Let's talk patterns........

Inspiration for today's blog from Cantore !!

Doing research is like social media.

You have to click on the images....

...go deep to see all the data.

Often while looking ahead........

.....I look back at where we've been recently.

Sometimes patterns remain, get stuck a while.

They evolve into tropical scenarios ....

...after winter storm storm tracks.

Not always obviously....

.....but often enough to pay attn!

Will we have late season cold fronts?
Fronts dangling in warm Gulf waters??

Then going flat and moisture festers???

This Winter was busy at the coasts with snow falling on cities that rarely get to see snow .... let alone huge amounts of snow or at least to take pics of pretty memories before the snow melts fast in the Southern Latitudes. I capitalized that as it's important to remember. Snow in Maine is no big deal, 7 inches of snow in Gulfport Mississippi is a really BIG deal! 

That navy blue indigo color is a big deal.

Lots of snow...way above average.

It's also the coastline of hurricane country.

(except for Central and Southern Florida)

Only so far South measurable snow can go.

Great post by Jim Cantore.

So it's worth remembering.

Texas beaches got snow.

Nola got snow.

Gulfport got snow. 

Florida Panhandle got snow.

Savannah, Georgia got snow.

Charleston got snow.

Wilmington got snow.

OBX got snow!

Sounds like a list of landfall cities.

Not snow.

Tho.......

Savannah usually gets backdoor impacts.

Helene in 2024 gave Savannah weather.

Savannah had 1.1 inches of snow on the ground.

Zooming in a bit on the SE

Greensboro inland got less than normal.

Raleigh less but it's is an average.

1st real snowfall in 3 years this winter in RDU

New Bern NC got 4.5 vs N/A (basically not often)

Augusta got hit bad by Helene... 

2.7 vs 0.8

Same with Wilmington and Charleston... SNOW!

(when I say snow I mean on the ground not flurries)

Asheville 1.9 vs normally 10.2... a snow drought!

Savannah got 1.1 inches vs 0.0 inches.

Remember this is totally not scientific as much as looking at this Winter's data and the storm tracks and areas that were hot meteorlogically vs areas that were not. I mentioned often on X  that the Southern Jet remained in place as if it was locked in.  I watch, I compare and then I look back at my observations and see where I was right, what resonated and what wrench was suddenly thrown into the pattern such as a Major Hurricane that formed in late June and raged in early July hitting Islands that are normally in the hurricane shadow and and avoid direct landfalling storms such as Grenada!

Who had that on their Bingo Card?

As for 2025...

I'd say the EPAC season begins on time or early.

Been watching waves and convection off of South America.

EPAC  begins May 15th!

A month away and looking juicy!!

I'd definitely say the Gulf and the SE coastline and even up into the Mid Atlantic may see hurricane threats this year as there's much talk that storms will come together closer in after the 55 yard line and when that happens there are often less "Fish Storms" that recurve gracefully, greatfully out to sea. Just talk right now, as tropical meteorologists and storm trackers and chasers shoot the tropical breeze. We can talk and post all we want but it all plays out in real time......remember that. 

You can print this out and old school track!

Or use it for stress and color it in and doodle!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/tracking_chart_atlantic.pdf

Ps as always.....remember this is really 1 area map wise!

Sweet Tropical Dreams!

Start making lists!

Get a Hurricane Kit!!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere whatever... 

Make sure I'm your particular harbor ;)

www.bobbistorm.com 

What's Going on in the Atlantic? Everyone Talkin.... Possible Subtropical Storm or Just a Storm ??? How Early Will 2025 Hurricane Season Start?

 

If you're on social media.

You have probably seen these models.

It's been 137 days since 2024 Season ended....

...seems longer than saying

46 days til Hurricane Season.

Many are hungry.....

...watching models.

The bottom line really is this:

Often this time of year convection in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas looks as if it may form into some sort of short lived subtropical system that's often picked up by an approaching frontal boundary and swept out to sea. They can, at times, be beautiful to watch and they always amp up the excitement about Hurricane Season being just a month an a half away! Getting closer every day.

Note the sharp line between tropical...

...and "wow it's cold in the Carolinas today"

Models do show something trying to wrap.

But....will the NHC pay attention?

Maybe...

Somewhere some model is always running....

...looking for possible development.

Questions........

The same way the hurricane season usually ends, it also begins. Systems in the Caribbean or out by the Bahamas try and develop into quasi storms; often an early Subtropical Storm in the Atlantic gets a name. Other times not. It's the NHC's game and they make the call. For now.... everyone is talking about it.

I had family in town this week for the Passover holiday. Yesterday we went to Lassiter Mills Falls (whatever it's called) with my little grandchildren and one of my older ones. Took a walk, played by the Falls... picked up various stones as the geology lover in me totally takes over in places where you see so many classifications of stones in one place. Water, wind and rushing water....yes it was awesome!

Windy and cold.

Sunny and beautiful.

Seasons collide this time of year.

Hoodie ...just in case.

Kids ran on the rocks barefoot!

Ended up at the Farmers Market!

Strawberries pretty but not that sweet.

Gonna make preserves.... 

... to put over Ice Cream!

Sweet Tropical Dreams!

Not always as it seems....

Sliver of a chance of Subtropical.

Time will tell.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere ...whatever.

A Look at Hurricane Season 47 Days Away and Inland Flooding Dangers........Carolinas, Virginia and Most of the Hurricane Coast....

 

Love History............

..........Love Maps.

Small fast post.

Carolinas and Virginia.

Nice map of early settlers.

Note they all traveled the rivers.

They farmed in the river valleys.

They all dealt with new world storms..

As a young child in Miami when I first learned about the early colonization of America on Roanoke Island and the famous Virginia Dare who was born here but disappeared with the colony.... my first thought was "well yeah a hurricane probably went through there and everyone drowned" because I'm from Miami. Blaming the "Indians" seemed stupid, I didn't know much about plagues then, but I did know hurricanes.

I took a look at Google with it's everyready bunny AI to see what it'd have to say:

Note phrase "not the primary reason"......

.....oh........so it could be part of the reason?

Map of River Valleys.

Map of where people live.

Map of places that flood in a hurricane.

(note up by French Broad = Asheville)

Below is Virgnia.

I know not in geographical order.

People remember Camille for Pass Christian.

They forget it flooded Virginia where many died.

My beautiful New Bern after Florence.

Recently Helend.

This blog post was brought to you by the "Learn about Inland Flooding Threats this Hurricane Season" and BobbiStorm as all the color, drama, glory of hurricanes is always shown as it makes landfall at the evacuated beaches where every photo journalist, storm chaser and weather channel specialists are set up.....and yet once it punches inland and the river valleys flood fast the death toll climbs horrifically. Few stick around and ride through the small towns or take video from a helicopter but the death toll in the Carolinas and often Virginia is always high as all the towns are built in the river valleys as rivers were the method of transportation back in the day ....especially for farmers to get their produce out and even more so as the rich fertile river valley provided the best growing scenarios to bring forth a large harvest. Unless a hurricane hit during harvest time.  NC Government JUST finished putting together relief bill last month for Helene that hit last hurricane season :( 

Some links to share with friends ... please share.

https://www.weather.gov/media/fwd/Hurricane%20Inland%20Flooding.pdf

https://www.hurricanescience.org/society/impacts/rainfallandinlandflooding/

(not just Carolinas..........map from site above)

https://www.qac.org/DocumentCenter/View/5811/Inland-Flooding

Stay prepared.

But first know your dangers.........

...especially if you are new to the area.

I recently read an article about a Rabbi who was sent to work in the Pensacola area of Florida and he grew up in Sweden. I thought: "wow imagine moving there and seeing the warm tropical colors of the Gulf and the beaches and.........." suddenly it hit me "hurricanes!!! OMG that's not something you see in Sweden often."

Indeed he and his wife and family moved there just before Hurricane Michael!

I only know this as one of my kids was looking to go up there for Passover and was checking out the local Chabad to see if they had a Seder and he showed me this story. Welcome to Florida! Indeed. 

https://api.chabad.org/news/article_cdo/aid/4159041/jewish/As-Thousands-Fled-Hurricane-Michael-This-Rabbi-Moved-In-and-Is-Helping-Others.htm

If you are moving to Florida or Texas or the Carolinas.............be sure you are aware of our local Hurricane Season and it's tricky, lesser known "inland flooding" dangers especially if you live anywhere near a river or a creek!

Don't be blinded by a hurricane after you move to your new home in paradise !!

As for me.......enjoying the cool beautiful temperatures in Raleigh today and knowing the Hurricane Season is only 47 days away.... my mind is on hurricanes, the blog and satellite imagery. When Passover is over I'll dig in with more regular blogs and be back to my normal blogging!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere...whatever

Again not as glamorous as landfall at the beach..

Deadly. Destructive.

Catching Up With CSU 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast... A Look at the Analog Years. Do You Remember 1999?

Just wanted to add here first.......

....recently was in Colorado and saw CSU.

Took this pic going into Boulder!

After hearing about it for years.

Wild to be out there.

Love Colorado, open sky and winter.

CSU landlocked in colder weather....

...specializes in tropical forecasting.

Got to love it.

Numbers below....

First and foremost...2025 Hurricane Season.

CSU report came out as you can see above.

Busy, but not quite as busy as 2024.

Close. Above Average.

Whatever average is anymore?

Strong possibilities some make landfall.

And that is really what's important.

We can talk numbers all day...

...but at the end of the day.

How many make landfall?

And where do they make landfall?

There has been much talk on the Gulf.

Tho whole USA coastline 51% chance.

So don't focus on one area.

Some say Mid Atlantic and NC.

Florida always watching...

Time will tell!

1999 is an analog year.

Something else to remember is as much as we focus on Major Hurricanes often ...the truth is sometimes you can have a small Major Hurricane hurricane such as Bret that was a Cat 4 in Texas in 1999 that made landfall in an area with a small population. That said .....7 people died and it did do damage in South Texas, but less than had it slammed into Houston or Galveston or New Orleans or Mobile. In 1926 a large, slowing moving wet Cat 4 Hurricane roared and slammed into the young city of Miami at the height of the Roaring 20s and the death toll was always a moving target and still is and may never be known for sure. I'd like to think if it happened today Miami would be prepared, but I'm not so sure as it's been a while since downtown Miami was hit dead on by a Cat 4 and oh ........that would be 1926 exactly 99 years ago. Worth remembering that a large, slow moving wet hurricane can pound a city harder than a fast moving small hurricane such as Andrew that ripped apart the Homestead area far to the South of Miami and yet spared Miami the worst destruction. Had Andrew been a much larger hurricane it's hard to believe this but seriously it would have been so much worse across a wider area. As bad as Andrew was it sped through farmland, nurseries and parts of the Everglades. 

My point here is that all Majors are not equal and many Major hurricanes intensify out in the middle of the Atlantic and dance their way North bothering no one but ships at sea that need to adjust for it. 

I've never been one that gets into the whole "15, 7 and 4" and how many ACE days will we have when it's April as we are not yet sure of what conditions we will be dealing with this coming Hurricane Season. I do love reading the CSU report for other information and I love comparing it with the updated one that will come out on June 11th. Between now and June we will see what really is evolving vs what models are trying to forecast and early season forecasts often miss the subtle nuances that make or break a forecast.

I love the geographical data, maps and analog years. So let's look at the Analog years shown below.

1996 was a mess for Carolinas.

3 storms visited the same area ...

...busy year.

1999 as I mentioned Bret was that year.

Chose Bret not because the year was important.

It was an interesting Cat 4.

Again location is important.

Busy year but most stayed out at sea.

NC in it as well.

2006

Quieter year... many out at sea.

2008 Busy.

Horrific for Haiti 

Sat Image below tells the story.

Gustave was an evil star player.

Destructive path, multiple landfalls.

2011 

A lot of ocean cruisers!

2017.......

Really we do not want to discuss 2017.

No more 2017s!!

Again location is everything.

Caribbean and Florida under the gun!

Texas will never forget Harvey.

Every hurricane season is similar in some way to a past season and totally different in other ways. Busy year, quiet year or an in between year what matters is track and location of landfall. Location is everything. We have had busy season with beautiful spinners that stayed out at sea. Hurricane Danielle out in the middle of the Atlantic is a good example. Danielle was in 2010 but it's a good example of a dangerous storm that danced in the Atlantic!

Earl later that year also traced the coastline.

Let's hope all Major Hurricanes stay out at sea...

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Not everything is as it seems.

Forecasts are merely forecasts.

El Nino

LA Nina

Neutral

What will we have in August?

Time will tell.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

mostly weather on X

elsewhere ...who knows..

Who remembers the summer of 1999?

I do  ;)

Let's takes a trip back ...

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

62 Days Til Hurricane Season - Severe Weather and Possible Tornadoes Today in the South. Seasons Sliding Along. Only A Matter of Time...

 

Starting with this story this morning as it's very tropically relevant! When Florida warms up and the temperatures flirt with and actually get into the 90s......you have to know the water is warming up around the tropical peninsular as well and that means the Gulf will be getting hot as we head into the Hurricane Season. Florida has had a fairly nice winter, but that switch has been flipped and after the first week of April it'll be hard to see cold fronts move through with much energy. And, then the heat sets in......

Pretty map.

Note the sliver of orange sliding into the Gulf.

Lots of warmth in the Caribbean Sea.

Slowly that dome of heat edges North.

Mike has sea surface temperatures on his site.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

As we March through April into May.

We watch for water warm enough....

...to support pre season activity.

At least 2 people are dead from tornadoes...

...that slammed into the center of the USA

Today the severe weather moves East.

Carolinas, Georgia are all on watch.

In truth the local weather has been playing this weather up all of last week as if there was a hurricane about to make landfall on Monday. We are finally at Monday and the maps for today's Severe Weather Outbreak are below. Brad Panovich is a Carolina treasure and I'd say people on both sides of the state line follow him carefully when weather looks to be a news story.

So we will see what we will see. It's that simple when it comes to Severe Weather as it forms in real time and where that line may form a bow echo is the whole story that evolves in real time. As always only time will tell, but the word is out and I'll add aside from Severe Weather expected in certain areas there's many other areas that may get flooding from copious amounts of rain with this system. When it rains it pours indeed! 

Sweet Tropical Dreams

62 days til Hurricane Season - basically at the 2 month line.

So start looking through your lists and supplies and fill in what you need when things are on sale.

Easier to spend a little here and there when things go on sale or pick up one thing extra at the Dollar Store  then having to spend the rent money when you are finally in the Cone and have watches and warnings up!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather. Elsewhere whatever.