Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Tropics Quiet...Where Could We Look For Surprise Development? Let's Say ...Unexpected.....

 


Short blog today. Not much to say. NHC says no development in 7 days. While that's plausible, it's not carved in stone. We often see a yellow circle pop up somewhere after being insistent nothing will form. Weather happens in real time, models try and predict what may or may not happen. So, that being said where could we see possible development try and "pop up" close in versus a tropical wave that we will track for weeks til landfall. 


From left to right........

1. Around the Yucatan, a hot spot this year, there's convection gathering there. If conditions change in any way even a little, something could try and develop ....so watch for flare ups and persistent convection.

2. The colorful complex of persistent convection in the Bahamas from Florida to Bahamas and to the East of the Bahamas. I don't have to say more it stares in our face getting bolder in color every day. Sometimes in that region close in when we have convection in place and a dying frontal boundary descends with a low attached and gets into that region, decaying yet sort of merging with what is there...sometimes something flares up close in ........especially in July.

3. There's a weak, westbound wave that has hung in there in the Atlantic under the SAL, staying alive despite coming off the same time as the wild surge of SAL exploded. That could get further West and if alive mix it up with one of the areas previously mentioned. Or it could slide West into the EPAC that's trying hard to come alive but so far has been hard to get spin close in versus further West. Always keep an eye on persistent tropical waves that are sneaky!

Stay tuned. Models are awesome, but sometimes they miss things or underestimate an area's possibility for development. And, when they do...suddenly a new model pops up and shows possibilities and then like a sleepy dog the NHC raises up it's head, sniffs around and throws us a yellow circle the way it's owner throws it a bone.

Just my thoughts on July 21st, 2024 in the tropics.

Have a great day...

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather
Insta whatever 
Ps........................Keep watching all the popular spots for late July! 






Thursday, July 18, 2024

Hot Hazy Days of Summer. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Carolinas. New Daily Rain Is Slowly Breaking Down the 100 Degree Temperatures. Waves Will Break Up the SAL. Wave by Wave... It's Just a Matter of Time. Change Coming in the Tropical Wind

 


Always good to be home after a trip even if you can think of other places you'd like to be, but not today when all I want to do is hang out and play. Nothing happening in the tropics. 

Nothing. Happening. Tropics.
Atlantic Basin Edition.


I wanted to draw your atten to you the "front" that's draped over the South. Not something you expect to see in Mid July during a Heat Wave. And, yes it is still hot but with the cloud cover it's gone down to 89 degrees while a scroll runs under my TV naming every county in the vicinity. Discussion is split on what role frontal boundaries could have on this coming Hurricane Season as we get deeper into Fall. I think there will be fronts, we have them now and if we have them now we could easily have early frontal boundaries. I'm not saying we are having an early winter, I'm saying frontal boundaries are drivers of movement of tropical systems. Beryl was an odd storm for early July and yet a frontal boundary was there in the mix of the mess of ambiguous and contradictory weather events playing out in the tropical weather world. Time will tell.


Here's another view.
Note the ITCZ is suppressed.
Beneath strong high pressure.
Elongated, moving fast westward.


There's a wave coming off of Africa.
It's a nice wave... large, has a look to it.
It'll do one or two things.
It will help juice up the atmosphere....
...that's currently very dry.
And help the next big wave behind it.
it's a process this time of year.
Wave by wave by wave.
SAL slowly let's go.
And, or it'll try to hang in there.
Maybe try and flare up closer in.


Purple splotches growing...


There's change in the wind.
Distant change but it's on the way.
The horrific highs in the 100s...
...are being washed out by rain.
Huge rainfall totals for NC...
..down by Gulf of Mexico.


But for now SAL is in charge.
Each new wave will take a bite out of it!
One wave after another.

Then we will have Prime Time Tropics.

It's just a matter of time.

Besos BobbiStorm























Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Watching Tropics Down the Road - Use the Quiet Time Wisely. Things Will Get Busy FAST!

 


This is a quick blog this morning with one main message, as I'm on the road and will discuss "down the tropical road" tomorrow when I'm back home. If you look at the image above of the Mimic that measures precipitable water vapor in the atmosphere you will see there is ample moisture out there to wonder where we are going in a week or so. SAL is always a factor, oddly some tropical waves find a way to move intact with it (as Beryl did) or just keep going until they find an environment that allows them to flare up and try to develop. 

So while we often say "nothing happening" or "models show nothing developing" it's important to remember that models can switch on a dime and suddenly there's a yellow or orange circle close in on the NHC main page. Happens enough when we aren't expecting action to remember and so I'm reminding you that it can happen and it's important to stay vigilant and aware of any changes occuring in the tropics that could rearrange your plans.


#1 I'm a purple girl.
#2 purple splotches show possibilities.
#3 often a yellow X goes up in these regions.
IF NHC believes it can be a possibility.


Note the bottom panel.
Cherry stripes in the Atlantic.
Long range.

Often as we flip the calendar after a quiet period suddenly something changes. Environment changes and becomes a bit more conducive (friendly) to tropical development. Healthy waves look healthier...

And, as always watch close in as sometimes pop up issues arise!

That said, stay cool, stay safe, stay happy.
Check back tomorrow.

Sweet Tropical Dreams ....
       BobbiStorm
                @bobbistorm on Twitter 
                           Twitter mostly weather
                                     Insta whatever..
                                                Remember.........
                                                         Time is slip sliding away!!
                                                                 






Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Tropics Silent. Explore Mike's Site ... Has Loops U Never Looped. Come August... You May Be Glad.... Get Knee Deep in the Water Somewhere ;)

 


Borrowed this from Mike on Twitter.
Straight from the source... NHC update.
Again you can always go to his site....
..famiilarize yourself with it.
U may find links u didn't know existed.


Many people go to sites, scroll through the main part, but don't explore all there is on the site as a whole. Layers of links, loops, info and educational advie. I'm proud to be on the top of the page with the link to the blog, but know there is awesome info at the bottom. Next image shows drought monitor, fire info, earthquakes.... just so much info. So if you're "bored" waiting for the next Invest to track or worry on utilize the site to find links you never knew existed. Life is like that.

Walked into a bar late yesterday afternoon when the pouring rainstorm stopped everyone from walking about outside and rather than get my usual drink and snack I ordered something new. It was awesome, incredible and a reminder not to live on automatic without seeing what's around you and what you might find of value ... be it a good drink, a nice snack.... a new webcam or satellite image of link to "Gulf Pressures" that you may want to utilize when an Invest is about to get upgraded and you or your loved ones may be in the upcoming Cone! 


Did y'all know that was there?
Explore don't be bored!!

As for NHC info....


Dry, barely a cloud!
Weather near Chicago visible...
...a new wave emerges over Africa.
That's it.

Steve Lyons used to be on TWC and when he did the Tropical Update and it was July and dry and nothing going on... he'd say something about a good day to go sailing or on a cruise. I was younger, hungry for something to track and talk about online with my weather friends and it'd really annoy the hell out of me. True confessions!! Like "oh my gosh" don't rub it in! And, in my case I didn't care if it was a Fish Storm or a tropical wave moving westbound towards the Eastern Pacific, just nothing all July. That year, we had a bumper crop of hurricanes to worry on and to with they had never formed. July is slow as it goes usually. 

So check out a website, buy things for hurricane supplies or go to the beach or a movie. 

Ps...walked back to the hotel in the rain, sandals in my hand and it was awesome. Got soaking wet and took a hot shower. Enjoy what's on the table........ wasn't a hurricane but was a wild storm.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.












Monday, July 15, 2024

HOT HOT HOT ... But NOTHING in TROPICS in ATL.

 

NHC says......nothing for 7 days.

End of July... maybe. Time will tell.


SAL Monster tightly in place.
Holding court.
Waves to the South slide into South America.
Guyana gets more rain.
In the SE we are baking.... HOT HOT HOT!!!
Humid and hot. 
Cray cray humid and hot.
Mid Summer and not a good dream.
Not a nightmare but a dream would be snow.


Add in EPAC finally getting it's act together.
So when that happens...things are quiet ..
..on our side closer to EPAC.
It's just a matter of time.

That said I'm in Charlotte NC on vacay...


Doesn't that look beautiful.
Drove in yesterday, stunning beautiful.
That said.... Hot Hot Hot!!!!

So really that's it for today. Nothing more to say. I can lecture on Hurricane Prep but it's way too hot to add more hot air into any room today.  Charlotte is a beautiful city, especially in some areas, with many things to do that you can not easily do in Raleigh. Easier to get Cuban style food here... on Vegan Indian or Kosher if you know where to go and there are fountains everywhere because I guess they decided it should look like Rome... except no statues though sometimes there are lights at night. 

Check back tomorrow. 
Stay safe. Stay well. Stay happy!

It'll be busy before you know it and according to a good meteorologist friend of mine who I trust totally, once thze action starts up it'll go nonstop until Halloween. Larry Cosgrove, fantastic meteorologist with the most awesome grasp of geography and global weather and how it all interacts.

Besos BobbiStorm


Odd take on 80s music.... but fun to dance to...
..inside with AC set to 69 degrees!!










Sunday, July 14, 2024

Are You A Weather Prepper? Or a Hurricane Denier? You Gambling with Hurricane Season? Nothing in 7 Days as per NHC. Amazon, Target Deliver Hurricane Kits! Use the Quiet Time Wisely!!!

 


Doesn't matter what model you look at...
...one thing you see is the HUGE HIGH.

What this should remind you is that .... as long as the high is in place, once a tropical wave forms it'll ride under the high ...til the edge of the High.......then curve to the North in whatever way the High allows it to. High is capitalized as in this case it as it's currently a living, breathing thing! 

Couldn't fall back to sleep after waking up early, so just going to write in my blog. Writing relaxes me.

Spoke to a few friends about the problem of conveying to the general public the importance of making a hurricane plan, a kit and storing supplies. It's not that hard to do, and yet after every warning goes up you will see people trying to crowd into the local Publix as if it's the world's largest Walmart but alas it's not. Inside there are long lines, empty shelves with no water left in sight as a few lucky people push their shopping carts out the door packed with the last 6 packs of Publix Spring Water and toilet paper. People have a frantic look as they look wildly about the aisles trying to grab things, anything that they may need. Do not tell these people the power will go out and the yogurt and Ice Cream will go bad.........just don't, trust me. I tried that once and I was screamed at and told "they all turn away" citing Hurricane David in 1979 that somehow emotionally scarred them as it had the nerve to turn away and go to North Florida after they bought hurricane supplies. Telling you, once burned and apparently all they want is chocolate chip ice cream as the store may soon; closed due to the threatening hurricane and associated hurricane warning. Do not get between them and their chocolate ice cream.

I sound like I'm being silly, but no that happened in the frozen aisle before Hurricane Andrew. After telling me off, they walked away clutching several pints of chocolate ice cream. My mother, a chocoholic herself, said with her deep Southern Accent "oh leave em alone, if they're gonna lose electric I'm sure they will be glad to have even melted chocolate ice cream!" and she reached in and grabbed the last Tofutti Cuties. 

There are a different types of people in Hurricane Country.

Some have their hurricane supplies neatly stacked away all year, waiting in case the Big One comes their way. In North Carolina, they keep emergency supplies for hurricanes and/or a blizzard knowing full well they may not get neither, but they stay prepared anyway. These are Weather Preppers! 

Some know they should get hurricanes supplies but the odds are in their favor their town will miss the brunt of the storm and so they do the math and the odds and decide they can go to Disney or use the money for hurricane supplies. Yup, they go to Disney, but out of a huge sense of guilt and the need to do the right thing they stock up on those cheese crackers in little individual packages with peanut butter in them that were on sale and hide them in the closet. The kids see where they hid them and leave cracker crumbs all over the back seat of the Van half way to Disney. 

Some live in total denial and feel better that way. 

Some really want a hurricane and are sure the moment they go buy water the hurricane will turn away and the Hurricane Watch will be dropped. 

Some nervously grab an extra case of water every time they go shopping, filling up the garage with water just in case and nervously worrying fellow shoppers who see they are buying more water than anyone really needs and rush to grab water just in case.

Some do nothing. Absolutely nothing. They see nothing, they know nothing, they don't want to know anything and they buy beer, pretzels and a lot of canned food Italian food they heat up daily in the microwave and should a hurricane hit, they have beer, pretzels and a can opener to use the canned food. God really does look out for drunks and fools it seems. I have seen this happen actually so while it sounds like a joke, I'm telling you a neighbor across the street when I was growing up was never upset a tree fell in his yard, or their was debris after a hurricane. His son would come put the shutters up for him and he'd come out after the storm and sit on his porch drinking beer and waving to the neighbors. Someone said to me "he's a crazy old fool!" and I remember thinking "well he seems a whole lot happier than you are..." but kept that an inside thought as even as a small child I knew when to keep my mouth shut when a neighbor is surveying her broken fence as a large tree fell on it. You gotta know when to hold them, when to fold them and when to shut your mouth!

The last kind here on the list goes to people who shop at Amazon or Target and orders hurricane supplies when they see a strong tropical wave that might become a hurricane. They figure they can return it within 30 days on Amazon and near forever at Target. Either they use them or they return them, it's a form of "banking at Target" just in case.

Which one are you?

I'm not making money on this just trying to help, so sharing with ya'll a bunch of stuff you can get online without thinking too hard. Oh and this can all be delivered obviously. Obviously, if you have kids order diapers, baby wipes and crayons; the baby wipes are for when the water is not working. If you have a big dog, but a big bag of dog food!


Publix above... Amazon below!


Oh look Hurricane Supplies on Amazon!!


Won't lie I may buy that fan!!

A big kit...
...it has a hatchet!
Either you know ...
...or you don't want to know.


Lanterns nice...

Check it out.
Target is in on the Wxr Prepper Biz!


I'm done.
You get the idea.
You either get it or you don't want to.
I do get that.....

And as always Dollar Store and Big Lots ...
Thrift Shops have many basic finds.
You'd be surprised... find a big thrift shop.
First thing people get rid of....
...when moving out of Florida after a storm.
Stuff bought for hurricane supplies..
Actully EBAY sells supplies discounted!

Stay safe.
Stay prepared.
Enjoy the quiet time.
Won't last forever.
Use this time wisely.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorn on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather.
Insta whatever.

Ps Sorry on any typos.
I have a new larger laptop ...
...larget than usual.
My fingers have to really stretch... 

A song for all of you....
...gambling with Hurricane Season!


















Friday, July 12, 2024

Tropics Quiet. Yellow X 0% (NHC Sees It But Not Developing) SAL in Charge This Week! Use Rainy Weekend in Some Areas to Go Shopping for Hurricane Supplies. Most Reading This Will Need It!


Today's blog is gonna be sooo short.
Nothing expected to develop in next 7 days.
Yellow X - 0%
Basically means, we see it.
But........
We also see SAL
Saharan Dust Layer.


Looks a bit like Mickey Mouse.
USSR?? China?
It's suffocating for Tropical Waves.
And yet.....


There are waves ....
...and each wave moistens up the environment!
Fights off the SAL.
This is the way of the tropics in July.
SAL reigns supreme!

I will add that down the road in a week to ten days, it is possible something pops up, perhaps an old tropical wave that gets into the Caribbean. Or perhaps that low lying tropical wave will continue into the Epac that currently, finally has a 10% yellow circle for development. Often the energy from their storms begins in the SW Carib from a Westbound Tropical Wave and forms in the EPAC. 

As always the chance of close in development of the tropical or subtropical kind can happen.

So pay attention.  Make a list of your prorities. Get a Plan to put into action IF you need it.


Have a great weekend.... 
...enjoying the cooler rainy weather today in NC.
Courtesy of the Zero% Yellow Circle...
...and a frontal boundary hovering.

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather.
Insta whatever.
Hum your own song...
...get a plan!
Easy basic ideas.