Flooding from Chantal in NC. Tropics Today. Some Rivers are Still Rising......

 

Only area the NHC highlighted today.

Always something to watch tho...

Fairly quiet in the Atlantic. The remnants of Chantal are moving up through Virginia on their way to Baltimore and DC. There's a wave moving off of Africa. The EPAC is going quiet and that's a signal the Atlantic will wake up soon. There's a tropical wave that's wandered West from Africa and keeps getting pushed to the South to the North of Hispaniola that I've talked about for what seems like forever. It's tenacious.  And, there's rain in the NE Gulf near the Big Bend of Florida which is fairly common for this time of year and an area that could eventually develop.

I wrote this in an earlier blog..

....about Chantal and NC flooding.

Regarding Chantal I knew there would be flooding somewhere in North Carolina up the way from Raleigh and to the West of here. Not that Raleigh doesn't flood in some places, but in general Durham, Chapel Hill and cute little towns like Pittsboro further inland at a higher elevation where water is even more prone to run off! For a while on I was worried that if I mention the flooding possibility so much and it doesn't flood people will not trust me with the next storm that does cause flooding. But it was impossible to think that somewhere in NC it would not flood from Chantal.

It doesn't have to be a Hurricane. It doesn't have to be a Major Hurricane. It can be a Tropical Storm or a Depression but if it carries huge amounts of tropical moisture inland, uphill where the terrain has elevation as well as dips in the rood somewhere ...it's gonna flood. Rarely does a named storm get into inland parts of the Piedmont and historically when it does the rivers rise and hit flood stage. Currently this event is 3rd behind Fran that also made it inland into the Raleigh-Durham area. Chapel Hill is called Chapel HILL literally because there are hills and one big one!  I always watch the MIMIC to see how much moisture a storm has and obviously Chantal had quite a bit. Again she made landfall in SC 15 MPH short of Hurricane status.

And, not to throw the local media under the bus, but yesterday on Sunday Morning the news was all about what happened at the local fireworks displays, parades and very little about Chantal. I was in shock Chantal was not the LEAD STORY but no they all did stories on some problem at Brier Creek Fireworks display where some kids shot off fireworks in the crowd and people got scared thinking it was a shooting and well you get the idea. Then they handed off to the Weather part of the news and they talked on downgraded but spinning Chantal in the area. Flooding was mentioned, but it was not harped on and again locals and old timers know which areas flood. Chantal should have been the lead story. I'm sorry that's how we do it in Miami and I've grown up with hurricanes. In fact when there was flooding going on and there were live rescues going on the news did not break in and go live. That upset me as many would stay off the road if they heard from a friend about the flooding and not driven into dips in the road and had their car stall out and need to be rescued. This "it's not news until after it happens" needs to end if we want people to take the proper precautions. I am not saying every weather person for the last few days did add that flooding could be a potential problem, yet many who are not obsessing on the weather go to the bathroom when the weather comes on.  And, now days few watch the news vs looking for news stories on their social media feed. Until it bleeds it does not lead as we say in the news business so there's less precautionary info about possible flooding. And, parts of NC always get flood warnings the way Texas does and often they get lucky and there's no flood so they begin to ignore the warnings And, then there's a flash flood or a flooding event.  Spectrum News covered it giving information and I will give them credit as the weather person in charge that night continually updated the height of the river flooding along the Tar and the Eno.

So once again I post this.

Every hurricane.

Every big storm.

Every time it floods.

We live in a river valley.

Each town has it's own river.

Towns were built along rivers.

As you move up inland...

..as we say.

Elevation begins.

Rain + Terrain = Pain.

Where the lighter green begins... there's elevation.

where the yellow is there's elevation.

Orange and rusty brownish red... mountains.

A close up of the Raleigh Durham area.

Any elevation matters when water runs downhill.

And even areas in Raleigh have hills and dips.

Crabtree Valley Mall... not far from where I live.

Is built in a valley it's in the name.

Water flooded up to the 2nd floor in places.

Crabtree Creek runs along the side of the Mall.

There's a big, pretty large hill nearby.

This was Hurricane Fran.

That's it.

Sorry my blog today is not so fun to read.

It's not sexy or cute or playful.

It's informative and I'll link to it again...

..the next time a storm moves inland.

Inland to Raleigh like Fran.

Inland to Durham like Chantal.

Inland like Hugo and Charlotte.

History of flooding in North Carolina...

..especially from dying tropical systems inland.

Study it. 

Learn from it.

This is not about politics. NC flooded in hurricanes under Democrats and Republicans. This is not simply checked off as global warming event as it's been flooding since the first settlers lost family that were washed away in a flood and people either stayed or moved on. We still don't know what happened to the early settlers at Roanoke Island or what happened to Virgnia Dare but I'd bet money a hurricane storm surge washed them away and whoever may have survived move inland figuring they'd be safer. Who knows. This is not about aliens and if you want to go down other rabbit holes go for it but this is a story as old as time. And, research is always good. Here in my blog I'm talking on Hurricane History and that's what I am writing about.

Next time a hurricane or tropical storm gets inland into Raleigh or Durham or Chapel Hill or Pittsboro I surely hope people will remember and stay home and not drive into areas that are prone to flooding, especially not at night when it's dark. When my parents moved to Miami Beach in 1973 my mother had a friend who lived on a little street named Monad Terrace that backed up to Biscayne Bay and every full moon and especially King Tides this family took their valuables and put them up on tables and kitchen counters because the water would seep in and flood up to their knees often. Growing up in Miami and new to Miami Beach this sounded crazy, but it was just part of life on Monad Terrace where the bay curves in such a way that the water tended to funnel in and flood. Now there's huge luxury condos built there with awesome views and supposedly they have solved the flooding problem there. 

Learn from history. When you move into a new area or a new state find out what the local dangers are and what you need to know.

It's that simple.

More on tropical possibilities tomorrow. Hopefully tomorrow I'll be more playful and the blog won't go long, but this is a blog that needed to be written. And, again I'll use it again in the future as a reference when a tropical system approaches this area or any area inland including Western NC that I wrote and warned would flood and then horrifyingly watched it flood and realized many just didn't think it could or would to that and yet it did as it had done in the past. 

This was no where near the tragedy of Texas flooding but if it was your store in Carrborro that flooded out with all it's inventory or your home that was flooded or your car that was underwater it was historic for you.

Be Safe

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X where it's mostly weather and elsewhere...weather and whatever.

Ps more rain is on the way this week and the rivers are still rising so there will be more localized flooding. 

Oh and we had a few tornadoes touch down and 2 small dams gave way flooding neighborhoods in Moore NC. In my part of Raleigh it was rain, fun to see and a beautiful day with cooler temperatures but I was worried on some areas up the road and my fears sadly were realized.

With prayers for Texas....

...and some in NC.

Thoughts on Chantal From North Carolina. Thoughts on Hurricanes, Hurricane History and the Howl of a Hurricane. Thoughts on Camille. Chantal Was Inspiring... A Tropical Muse

Thoughts........ Pittsboro received 11 inches of rain so far out to the  West of Raleigh and they have had some flooding tonight. Chapel Hill has flooding as does Mebane and lots of places where elevation and terrain ups the ante for flooding rather than places in Raleigh that are fairly flat with random hills every block or si. We are in the foothills, yet Durham where there's flooding tonight has wild dips and rises in elevation compared to most of Raleigh. There are some rescues going on and I'm sure as people drive around tonight in the darkness (this neck of the woods is dark at night unless you are on a main road) some will be surprised by either roads that are flooded or something that fell into the flooded road earlier. Not a good situation.

I'm just typing tonight but it's annoying beyond all get out that this was inevitable, and yet local news went on all day covering regular events and talking on fireworks from days ago. I knew there'd be flooding somewhere tonight and better people know it's coming than be caught off guard! Spectrum News does tend to break into their coverage faster especially if it's weather related. God Bless. When we had a bout of tornado warnings today some stations went to split screen to show the golf or tennis matches going on and seriously yay for split screens as some people are bound to get a head's up that not all is well in the Triangle. Spectrum was live for a good part of the day and many in the Triangle have Spectrum Cable. 

Thankfully nothing large scale happened, but if it's your house that was flooded or your business or your car it's a big memorable event.

I had a good time today. I won't lie. I stayed home early in the day and enjoyed the windows being open a bit and listening to the gentle rain falling and following Chantal online and on satellite imagery. Later in the day I went out and got some pictures, got wet from the rain (soaked) and I think a few raindrops from Chantal landed in my mouth :) so I now have a bit of Chantal's DNA in my system. Smiling. 

A tree is down around the corner or a large branch as it was almost dark and hard to say but it was blocking the road earlier and had to be moved off the road. Every tree down has it's own story. Weak or recently trimmed poorly or saturated and something hit it or it just fell over. Not a lot of wind until late in the day. There are power outages in some places. There's a dam that may or may not have a problem down near the Sandhills where they had much rain earlier today.

This is a prelude to 2025 Hurricane Season. The last two years storms made it inland to this area and that's rare and it seems that trend is ongoing this year.

Had Chantal been out over the water an hour or two longer she may have been upgraded to Hurricane. Her biggest problem was her inability to stack vertically from the start and the strong convection with the strongest storms was always to her NE moving up and out ahead of her as I've seen often the last few years.

Blows me away that the beaches that saw landfall also saw snow in January. 2025 will be memorable year weather wise down by the coast for sure. It'll me memorable in Raleigh for me too because we did get a named storm even if it was downgraded on arrival to Tropical Depression Chantal. Rarely do tropical systems get this far inland and she wasn't exactly moving fast. Secondly she's up near Yanceyville and Roxboro on her way to Virginia. Good luck Virginia!

This tidewater region of the South is really one region broken into 3 states.  
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina

They share a history that goes back to Colonial days and their economy was and still is based on getting rain at the right time while the crops are growing, but not too much rain as to destroy the crops.They all have river basins and small towns that sprang up around the rivers and sometimes when a hurricane made landfall the river basins flood as they are actually flood plains around the rivers. And, they all have beautiful elevation in the Western part of the state and beautiful beaches on the Eastern edge of the states. Parts of Georgia is similar though parts of Eastern Georgia and North Florida are more one region, swampy vs low country and less elevation. Atlanta is part of the Piedmont Triagle that stretches up through Charlotte and on towards Raleigh. 

Enough history, geography lessons.

This has been fun and hoping no one has any serious problems tonight from the flooding as it would nice to get through a tropical storm without deaths or tragedy. We have had too much in Texas this weekend and we are still shell shocked from last years flooding in Western North Carolina. 

I do so love it here in ways. I especially love it when I get to see some tropical weather without having to go down to Wrightsville Beach which I do on occasion. 

I'm rambling. I don't care.

I'm amused and inspired and happy.

Listening to the steady flow of rain drops pitter pattering outside as I type inside after a long, hot shower after getting soaked playing in Chantal exploring the nuances of a relatively mild storm that never wanted to give up. 

Forecasts for 2025 showed this part of the Carolinas prone to having tropical problems as well as off the South Florida Coast and the Bahamas which is actually the area of wild rain that ended up spawning Chantal our homegrown Tropical Storm. The Gulf Coast is expected to be open to tropical visitors later in the season!

Again and again and again. No matter what models imply Mother Nature finds a way. Close in home grown pop up "surprise" storms are common when the rest of the basin is unfriendly. When the MDR is shut down look close in. When El Nino shuts down the Caribbean, look close in. When the NHC says "nothing for 7 days" you watch and a yellow area of interest pops up close in.

And remember again and again that Camille, one of the worst hurricanes in our recorded history, formed in the Caribbean near Cuba and the Yucatan from a Westbound tropical wave that fought it's way across the Atlantic unable to develop in a hostile atmosphere and waited until she got somewhere that the shear relaxed and the water was hot and she took off like a rocket ship into the Gulf and targeted the beautiful, peaceful cities along the Gulf just across the road from the water's edge. 

Any real hurricane fanatic has made a pilgrimage to that spot along the coast, across the road from the Gulf where there's  the slightest rise and a sign that marks the spot where Hurricane Camille made landfall. I've been there and walked around and I'm always in awe and surprised at how close those homes are to the water of the Gulf. And, may I say on a quiet day the waters of the Gulf that used to have shrimping boats lined up waiting to go out and get their catch and on that spot Hurricane Camille crashed into the coastline more than making landfall. 

Just a random photo below of the road, not any special part of the road, to show how close people live to the Gulf and how vulnerable that area is... was and will always be. 

Look at that image of Camille.

An old satellite image.

Not some fancy loop with various filters.

Just this one picture of Camille.

That shows the intense power at her core.

Perfect structure. Takes up half of the Gulf.

Still awesome after all these years.

Total Weather Porn.

You can read more at the site linked below from the wonderful AOML where I spent much time reading, researching and talking with friends as well as looking out over the beautiful waters of Biscayne Bay. Great place, awesome people, wonderful scientists, meteorologists and just good folk.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_blog/50th-anniversary-of-hurricane-camille/

If you are still reading you must really like me and or be a hurricane fanatic. A hurricane historian. A hurricane chaser. Someone who has been chased by a hurricane.

Be glad Hurricane Camille did not come crashing into your front door .....

Chantal is such a beautiful name and an early season tropical storm; had it been August this would have been one huge hurricane mess.

A special bonus for any hurricane history buff is this link below for the Great Beaufort Hurricane in NC. I say that as one of my favorite towns is Beaufort South Carolina, they both have legends and lore and history galore of great hurricanes.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2019/08/few-traces-remain-from-wild-and-terrific-19th-century-hurricanes/

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Listening to remnant rainfalling steady in the dark night from what remains of Tropical Storm Chantal on her way North into Virginia.

Once you've heard the howl of a hurricane, you always want to hear it again. Or at least I did and I do. Some travel and chase so it doesn't rearrange their homes that they can safely return to after traveling with friends. It pierces your soul, your mind tries to comprehend what's going on and you wait again for the howl to be heard in the stronger gusts and you are forever changed. The howl of the hurricane wind and the sounds of things slamming into your home. Some are afraid, some are amazed but all are changed.

At the height of Hurricane Andrew on Miam Beach hunkered down in a big old house on the 2nd floor of an old Roaring 20s mansion that went through the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane I could hear the howl of the hurricane, mean, nasty and on it's way fast somewhere while transformers popped constantly turning the sky purple until there were no more transformers to pop. And at the height of the howling you could feel the house shaking some as it was buffeted by the wind and you could hear the waves of the ocean on the other side of the creek four or five blocks away if you count Indian Creek.

It was wild as was the beach wild before we hunkered down. 

It's all wild.

Chantal was kind so far. Hope wherever her remnants go she stays kind. Chantal means stone or song, depending on which definition you read. She definitely has her song tonight as the rain falls steady.

Night...........

Thoughts on Chantal and 2025. Snow on a Beach in SC & Same Beach Gets Landfall of 60 MPH Chantal. Raleigh in the Cone, Getting Weather... Living in the Moment and Blogging.

 

Chantal has good form inland.

Moving into NC now as I type.

Check her out.

Defineable center.

Bands and a tail.

Moving NNW at 8 MPH.

40 MPH winds.

At 2 AM Chantal peaked out at 60 MPH exceeding expectations and forecast wind speed and had she sat a bit longer and drifted along she'd most likely have hit hurricane status;  most Chantal storms are short lived, out at sea and rarely make hurricane. I fell asleep after the 2 AM advisory. She made landfall around Litchfield Beach which is just North of Pawley's Island and South of Murrel's Inlet. It's one of the most beautiful areas of the world if you like ocean and low country and I do.

'

Okay it's a small spot.

Need to zoom in some.

Hard to even find Litchfield as ....

...usually comes up as Pawleys.

You get the idea in this YouTube video.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=586430321034490

There's a link to this video of the same beach in January.

They had snow in January. A rare SC beach snow.

This morning they had a Tropical Storm.

You'll excuse me if I wander a bit in my weather diary online here this morning. The window is open, the sliding glass door to the porch is open.... it's not hot, it's sort of weirdly misty but not foggy and the light is filtered by the tropical moisture moving into my back yard. And even though I did have plans to go down to New Bern today to watch sailboats bobbing in the water and I wanted to see the waves on the river vs go all the way to Wrightsville Beach where I've watched many tropical storms and a few hurricanes slide by offshore. New Bern has been there a long time, it was the original capital of NC, and I can go wander around and take it all in as we do often when I'm in a mood to get out of Raleigh but I wanna see the water vs somewhere further inland up the road.

They say there's something about years that have weird anomalies and it snows in places it rarely snows ... such as the beach in South Carolina and I'm not so surprised now that it did make landfall there and I'm wondering on what more the 2025 Hurricane Season will bring to the Carolina shores.

I've lived here more than 16 years here and that's a fact that's hard for my head to wrap itself around. Probably because I go down to Miami often, and yet the Carolinas are now home. I knew that had happened when I had this crazy dream one night and I was telling someone how my husband was running some sort of restaurant or little Inn with food and in the dream they asked where and my mind visioned South Carolina ... Pawley's Island and as I was waking up I literally had the thought "wait you didn't say Key West?" as I'm so pathetically analytical I can analyze my dreams while in the dream. I woke up thinking "oh my goodness" no way.... thinking have I really become a Carolina Girl? And, that was the moment I knew I had indeed made that geographical shift in my tropical geist :)

Will see what we get in Raleigh today and the general Durham, Cary area. 

We are all a bit flood shy in the Carolinas and more so this morning after watching horrific imagery that all is Deja Vu for us of the tragedy in Texas on July 4th Weekend.  Justin Michaels is talking on The Weather Channel explaining in a soft way that there's a reality that sometimes people are never found when missing in a flood and they have been buried somewhere else and it's not easy. Well said. Flooding from a Flash Flood or a very wet hurricane are the ones where they write in the history books 2,000 + died or estimate "at least 80 people" and it sounds odd that someone's life is divided down to the phrase "many still missing" and yet it happens over and over and over. Flash Flooding happens often in an area where flash flooding happens frequently and sometimes people in those areas are less likely to take the warning seriously and especially when the "Flash Flooding" warning comes in the early hours of the night when most are sleeping. It's like getting a warning on your phone in Miami at 3 PM that there's a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at dismissal and you watch as the children dash out to the car while there's cloud to ground lightning every single May and June. It's a mad dash to get in the car and you may frown but when you live in a Monsoon Tropical environment the world doesn't stop for severe thunderstorm warnings though we do stay extra alert and run fast.

So back to the tropics. You can see the wave train in effect in the Atlantic and it's worth noting that the last few waves came off near the beach in Senegal and that's when we get closer to the time of year when we take said waves more seriously. You can see the rain in Texas that's seriously been there since Barry made landfall as a meager, mishaped ball of tropical energy that gained fame as being part of the reason the flash floods happened in Texas. I can ....but I won't.......go back to posts online and here where I made jokes that were part playful and part a clue that the moisture from Barry would eventually move inland and up through Mexico into the SW and Texas and possibly meet up with a bit of rain from Flossie as well. This was a done deal, but the actual event of a flash flood at the worst possible place and time were yet to be determined. 

Camp Mystic is on the water...

..as most camps are in fact.

A river a lake. 

Places that provide recreation.

In happier times.

It's beautiful countryside there.

I've spent some time in San Angelo nearby.

Backroads there are OMG.

But flash flooding is ten times OMG NO!

Not going to say more except....

...prayers for the friends and families.

Next 5 days of rain ...

..as in where does Chantal's rain go.

Up into Virginia.

Up into DC and Baltimore. 

Never forget Delaware.

Could it get up into PA?

We will see.

My husband does Financial Planning and he often tells clients in bad times when the economy is down that money doesn't dry up it just goes somewhere else. There's always some part of the economy that gets money when another area of the economy shuts down. When people are not buying houses they are investing money somewhere else usually. Or they sit on cash but the money is there waiting to invest somewhere else. He was raised in the hotel business in upstate NY and that's why the dream was about him running some sort of hotel... logical. Funny how we study one thing and then do another. We figure we will live somewhere then end up another. Funny how a little beach on the edge of a marsh can get both snow and a hurricane in a 6 month period.

Just a slip of land.

I'll update later today.

Right now I just want to enjoy the quiet of a Sunday morning when the mist seems to be moving in and the rain is not that far way from me as I sit here and type. 

Oh and keep an eye on the NE Gulf as there's still rain there over warm water, you never know maybe it'll get it's chance next? As long as we have fronts on the move and we do, we have to watch tail ends of the fronts. I'm also enjoying the windows open and the temperature being 77 degrees......God Bless! Hopefully things stay simple and not too dramatic as we have had enough drama this July 4th Weekend!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere whatever.

Looks like a restaurant in Pittsboro 

Today's a 2 for 1

I'm in the Cone 

50 MPH Chantal ....Showers Moving into Carolinas as Edges Close to Landfall. Watching From Raleigh In the Cone

11 PM Chantal now 50 MPH.

Edging her way towards the Coastline.

Landfall...not so far away.

It's important to understand that the center of Chantal is to the West and her strongest winds and rain are to the right, really NE and those storms and all the storms in her circulation will circle around the center and rain is already spreading into North Carolina in fast moving showers moving fast far from her exact location. More so the forecast rain bands show a swath of heavy rains closer to Greensboro to the West of Raleigh. This can of course change between when I go to sleep later tonight and wake up in the morning. 

Again my point is everything changes and more so with a developing Tropical Storm. The forecast many in Raleigh read on Friday was for rain to be an issue closer to the coast. I had planned to go to New Bern, a city I truly love on the water to see what energy Chantal had when I thought the chance of weather here in Raleigh was slim to nothing. Everything changes is my point.

Fairly sure from the nightly news and people I have spoken to briefly they all think there's storm down by the coast and we won't get much. Everyone happy it'll keep the temperatures down. Can't argue there. But problems can arise and it's important to pay attention to subtle changes.

After what happened in Texas on July 4th and in Western NC you'd think everyone knows the chance is always there for flash flooding especially in areas where there's elevation. Parts of Durham flooded earlier in the week from some regular afternoon rain. Luckily I live in an area that rarely floods. But there's areas in North and South Carolina where elevation matter and some mixed with marshy areas down near the coastline about a 30 minute drive inland. I know that route my heart as we drive to Wrightsville my new Beach. And, there's also a risk of tornadoes closer to the coastline as Chantal makes landfall. 

This is not your Momma's hurricane. It's not even a hurricane. Rain is everywhere sometimes far from there center that's running fairly naked on visible imagery. So follow the weather not the center if you live in the path of the weather from Chantal today and tomorrow.

All you need is heavy rain to create misery. Random tornadoes. 

I sat on the balcony a little while ago. There's a light beautiful breeze and a fast moving showers sped by so fast not sure the rain hit the ground. Smells tropical. Nice. Sweet. Okay for me.... but my name here is BobbiStorm. 

This is from the Mimic.

So there Chantal sits.

NHC discussion tonight said they doubted ...

...any intensification.

Will see. 

I don't remember 50 MPH being in the forecast Friday.

She's moving slowly, she's over warm water and the shear is relaxing. But there's supposed to be other factors that would keep development at a medium. I'll do a full update in the morning. This is just me, marking the moment and thinking on what tomorrow will bring. 

Watch that tail grow in loop above.

Showers down toward Florida.

Tough, stubborn Chantal.

Chantal is a like a pebble caught in a river.

Dropped in...it'll go where it goes.

Looks like a lot of rain to me.

And with Tropical Storms...

..rain is usually the name of the game.

Not wind.

8 MPH is not very fast.

Is that forecast speed or actual?

NHC does forecast speed.

But we can watch on radar.

Won't lie it's a delightful distraction for me tonight. Will discuss other stuff in the morning. 

Again my concern is as it's "only a 50 MPH moving at 8 MPH" it's nothing to worry on can lead to problems down the road. I seriously hope I'm wrong.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather...elsewhere whatever.

Ps........... inland Carolinas are all about hardwoods and endless Carolina Pines and they can go snap in the wind, especially if she doesn't pick up speed. Try and drive your car at 8 MPH it feels as if you are crawling.

Jimmy was in Key West for this...

Much of early KW was from Carolinas.

Truth.... 

My family was there way back when...

... some of the most famous early settlers.

Bahamas. Carolinas.

Updated! TD 3 Forms. Cone at Soon.....Coastal Low Forms Off FL GA Carolina Coast in the Georgia Bight. Cradled Over Hot Water Developing. Will Chantal Form and Be Another "Shortie" Stay Tuned and Happy 4th of July!

Cone.

Forecast to be Chantal!

Movement is slow....

Small, weak developing Tropical Storms are often hard to pin down to exactitude and the forecast can often change some down the road. Again, TD3 is still developing and is forecast to be Chantal by the NHC. It's moving slow. There's shear that it's been successful at battling so far. Shear changes. It should move inland in South Carolina then North or North ish and fall apart inland. That said the beaches of the Carolinas (both South and North) will have rough beach weather and high surf. Inland there can be river flooding or just flooding, depending on how this plays out. And, we learned from last year inland impacts happen not just at the beach. The Cone above is the current forecast at 5 PM.

This is the current key messages above.

Watches for Edisto Bch to Little River Inlet.

To make it simpler.

Inland from this there will be impacts.

Depends how strong Chantal gets.

Depends how fast Chantal moves.

Slow moving Tropical Storms can bring misery.

So let's hope she doesn't sit and spin too long.

Just saying.

I'll be offline Saturday as I take that day off every week and I'll update Saturday evening. As always follow Mike from Mike's Weather Page. All the people I mention and talk to on X. Mitch from SC and Chick in Fayeteville especially in the area to pay attention inland. Note Myrtle Beach has rain through Tuesday. As always www.spaghettimodels.com has all the info up. 

Myrtle Beach NWS info. 

That's a whole lotta rain.

Rain profile for the next 7 days.

Note it's possible it is downgraded inland.

Falls apart and yet the rain goes on and on.

Parts of Barry DNA and I believe Flossie...

...embedded into storms over Texas

Made Flash Flooding in Hill County.

23 girls from a Camp are missing.

13 bodies have been found.

It's totally heartbreaking.

Flash Flooding happens.

Err on the side of caution...

..this July 4th!

I'll add in 8 PM info.

https://www.youtube.com/@MitchWestWeather/videos

Mitch lives in SC and he's on top of this ...trust me!

Visible below

Recon found the data.

NHC upgraded.

Cone will be out soon..........

I know it's frustrating for many as it's July 4th Weekend but it's not the first July 4th Weekend to have a tropical visitor to our beautiful beaches. Those of you who went through the heavy rains in Florida will most likely advise people up our way in the Carolinas to pay attention to it. And, say out of the ocean....... my best advice as every strong line of thunderstorms, tropical depression or tropical storm we have people die who thought they were strong Swimmers and they'd be okay. They were not. Stay out of the water!

Earlier today........keep reading if you did not.

Thanks.

60% Anytime.

For all the doubters.

Who insisted it would form in the Gulf.

Crossed over Florida.

Smelled the Atlantic Ocean.

Felt the heat of the water.

And BOOM!

We have Invest 92L

Overnight while you slept.

92L pulled it together!

Watch it spin.

Earthnull shows how closed off it is!

Let's go wide before I say  more.

This is like being a child and told you can't set up big fireworks, but your parents bought you some sparklers. Obviously, most children would be upset because they want the big fireworks on the 4th of July. But once they start playing with the sparklers and drawing their name in the dark night they are happy and making memories.

Most likely, this will be a short lived system much like the others this year and it will get a bit of hoopla and nothing more. But I would not wager a bet yet that we won't get more. It dumped a ton of rain on Florida and I do mean a ton (collectively) and lightning was intense and now it's all wound up into a little ball over warm waters close in. So it needs to be watched and anyone going to the beach needs to remember it is there and while it may get the name Chantal it can rough up the surf and watch it from the water's edge and stay clear of any lightning. 

Too soon to say for sure what it'll do as it's just become an Invest. Now the real investigation goes on behind the scenes. An Air Force Recon is scheduled to go into the system later today and we will know more later today. 

I'll update this afternoon.

I know I was quiet yesterday. I had some appointments I had to go to and then decided to wait as nothing new was going on and I get tired of saying "something is going to form off the East Coast of Florida" and get up "into the Georgia Bight where the water is hot and it can intensify fast" and make sure you are hurricane ready for what is to come later in the season. 

Now there is something to talk on. This is the reason that the whole area from Jax to Wilmington NC is basically the same geographical area. And storms do well here where the water is hot and there is something to the curve of the coastine that helps them spin. This happens off this area and off the Texas Mex coastline. Happens off of China ... lots of places. Geography is always something to take into consideration when watching a developing system close in. 

Only one thing concerns me down the road.

Where does the moisture from this go?
What if it makes landfall fast...

...then bounces out into the water.

Many models have played with this solution.

The warmth of Summer.

Has been crazy far up the coast.

A tenacious heat spell held on.

Dug in.

And the water off the coast is hot.

In theory it goes out to sea.

Let's hope so!

More to come...

....will update later

Oldie Summer Tune.

I have a brother who loved old songs since he was a baby bouncing in the playpen. My mother had a record of Oldie Goldie Songs from Texas and I do mean old style Country Western Music when that was a thing. So there he was bouncing along in the play pen to the Yellow Rose of Texas and other old songs. Funny how songs stick in our head and some are connected to summertime. 

But we may have Chantal forming. We for sure have a Coastal Low. How far will it go?

Besos BobbiStorm

More to come later today............. music above.