Strong Cold Front to Create Wicked Weather Coming This Weekend to the South/East Coast. Hurricane Season Done. Winter Clouds. El Nino.

 

 LAST regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook!

As always they will do a "Special" update...

If needed........

Our attention turns to cold fronts.

This weekend we're expecting a wild one.

All depends on orientation.

How fast it is moving.

How strong is the clash with hot air.

How deep does it go?

Does it do odd strange things?

This is from Mike.

Yes, I'm listening on low in the background.

Listening to Mike talk always relaxes me ;)

This is Sunday AM below...

...but Sunday afternoon it should be wild.

I'll be on the road ...soooo... we will see.

Got a concert to go to in Charlotte!

Be a bit of a Storm Chasing present.

That's a weather convention for Sunday.

Lots of clashes in the atmosphere!!

So not much more I can or will say about the 2023 Hurricane Season. Maybe it will look more interesting in the rear view mirror.  As for the Winter of 2023/2024 it's worth remembering it's an El Nino year even if for some odd reason it's not popular or politically correct to talk about El Nino. It happens. It's here. Each one is different. It doesn't have to be the "Mother of All El Ninos" as 1997 was referred to for it to create changes in the weather environment.  Again, no Hurricanes or Tropical Storms formed in the SW Caribbean, they formed to the North by the Yucatan or ran out of steam (strong headwinds, unfavorable) or cruised into the very welcoming, EPAC and got names. 

Nuff Said.

So let's talk about Clouds.

Clouds ... El Nino...and Winter.

Reed mentions here the impact of El Nino on clouds.

Loved this post!

Sunsets.

El Nino and Winter = beautiful sunsets.

I'll add in Florida you get awsome sunrises.

It's my favorite time to watch the sunset there.

And often you see it driving home from work...

...because time change makes early sunsets.

My brother lives near "the canal" in NMB.

North Miami Beach not N Myrtle Beach ;)

He walks the dog.

He takes incredible photos.

Have taken so many sunrise pics there.

The palms reflect in the water beautifully.

The air is cool again in the morning.

Okay not cool but doable.

Summer mornings in Miami are hell.

But oh the Sunsets in the Winter.

Add in El Nino... 

Tropical perfection cloud wise!

Mike went storm chasing yesterday.

Love these low clouds down to the water. above.

Used to chase with my brother in the Keys often.

Nothing like a Florida Keys Squall Line.

A photo of mine below.

I took this in 2013
Florida Keys.

We chased a line that produced waterspouts.

Crazy Thunderstorm!!!

One small tornado in a small marina...

A waterspount but one that made it onto land.

But the sharpness between the dark and the light.

The Squall Line.

The water slate gray.

Air moving fast.

Line racing.

Point and shoot fast.

Wild storm when it hit land.

But this to me is FL Keys Stormy Clouds.

Clouds in the Keys are incredible.

Tall thunderheads building out over the water.

Yes I miss it.

But I get Winter Weather in the Carolinas.

And plenty of tropical systems in NC

Sooooo

Have a wonderful day.

In a good mood.

I'll update on the Weekend Storm

When we have a better idea of facts.

Facts vs modeling speculation.

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Here's a video.

I owe y'all a song another day.

You get the idea ;)

2023 Hurricane Season Ends.......... Meteorological Winter Begins. 2023 Busy Year Few Landfalls.

Nothing for  7 days.

Hurricane Season officially ends tomorrow.

In truth it's been over for a while now.

Current radar above.

I really dislike this radar.

It's horrible compared to others.

But most use it as they can zoom in well.

Many good sites people pay for and I do.

But this is basically the view of our world today.

Winter weather in the West.

Southern Jet active as seen in the South.

Gulf of Mexico region.

It all moves East over the coming days.

We are a day away from Winter.

Meteorological Winter.

 December 1st.

I'll talk on Winter Forecasts later.

Today I'm briefly talking on 2023 Hurricane Season.

Yes very busy season.  

20 named storms.

Can you remember them all?

List below.

Names above.

Remember also the unamed storm in January 

Note while everyone talks on how busy it was....

....it was for the most part not very memorable.

Idalia was memorable.

One of the few really strong hurricanes.

A Major Hurricane that made landfall.

Most danced out in the Atlantic.

NC had it's usual brush with tropical weather.

But thankfully nothing Major.

The Islands did get brushes with weak systems.

When I look back at 2023 I remember staying up late with my friend who has a house in Chiefland who was riding out Idalia alone on the phone with me.... and listening to the wind in the pines as she kept sending me videos. Lots of tree damage, minor mostly as some oak branches fell as they will do in a strong wind but she was okay. Most people were okay. Heavy damage in Tallahassee far to the left of the eye as it began to transition as it was making landfall, though not officially until a bit later. Cities up in Georgia far to the North of where it was making landfall on the coast of Florida were getting slammed with violent weather faster than most expected. I've spoken to people who live there (many Miami kids leave Miami moving on up to Georgia and the Carolinas) and most were not expecting much but a little wind as it passed by on it's way further to the East. Of course, the storm surge to the South of landfall in Cedar Key a beautiful place us native Floridians love that hovers over the water in many places known for a great place to keep your boat, plane or catch incredible sunsets. Old Florida, Old South...beautiful spot in that part of Florida.

Let's be real here.

Barrier islands....Keys out in the Gulf

Get Storm Surge.

For storm chasers this was a season in hell. For people living along the Hurricane Coasts and inland it was an easy hurricane season. Yes, there were many named storms, mostly weak named storms that traced the previous storm's track incessantly in a never ending parade of struggling tropical systems making the turn away from the Caribbean and often in the wide open Atlantic intensifying and seemingly sitting for days as if they never would move North and when they did more North it was towards New England and Canada. Actually Canada was this seasons Carolinas having mutliple threats and impacts. And, we can thank El Nino because the Caribbean was totally free of hurricanes South of Yucatan as seen below. 

Let's put it this way. This is like a woman looking back at her teenage years, college days before settling down, who was very popular always out on a date every weekend. Trust me it happens. And and old best friend says to her at reunion, "wow you dated so many cute guys" and she nods and yet she really only remembers one or two with a smile two names fondly; adding in "oh that's right John and Elliot also ...they were nice guys" and smiles. Her friend nods and giggles. She begins to realize she can't really remember every boy she dated, though she remembers the pizza shops (so many pizza shops) and the movies they saw and yet mostly she remembers the ones she remembers. They were all nice to be honest including a few she didn't date but flirted with all day at school. And, this hurricane season will be like that as well. Idalia will be remembered. They were all named systems, they all had their moments where they showed potential and grabbed our attention but most will not be remembered. Especially this year as many systems followed the same patterns and thankfully for most of us it was a quiet year compared to recent years when Florida or Louisiana were pummeled by multiple landfalling hurricanes. 

Nice. Name them all. 

If so you are a hurricane expert.

The average person won't.

Idalia FL

Ophelia NC

We had the beautiful spinners.

Idalia and Ophelia.

The truth is it's hard for multiple tropical depressions to try and gain traction when there's some or Franklin spinning as if it's anchored and then Idalia takes it's place. Lord the NHC thought Idalia would never leave. 

But one thing this season shows is it doesn't matter how many storms are named, it only takes one to cause destruction to your own area. And, it only takes one in a very slow season.

Florida got lucky for the most part. Though there was severe damage and flooding in South Florida from the No Name Storm that maybe the NHC will upgrade........or not.........when re-evaluating the season's sysetms. Time will tell. 

Winter begins in the morning, hours from now and we are already well into Winter as we had a Hard Freeze last night in Raleigh. 

As always I appreciate everyone that reads this and interacts with me on X once known as Twitter. I appreciate your patience or amusement when I go on a rant. And, I appreciate your patience when I disapeer for personal reasons or worldly matters that seem more important than fair weather days with no tropical systems on the map. I'll be here covering winter weather, that I do so love and it's actually harder to forecast in ways than hurricanes as snow storms form in real time often less than 36 hours before the snow begins to fall. The Southern Jet is setting up, we begin to watch Miller A and Miller B and Miller C storms but we can talk about all the Miller Storms and explain that down the road.

My bottom line.........

Every hurricane season is different. Will next year be busy or slow? People who do long range forecasting predict a busy season. But if it's busy where they make landfall and if it's slow .... will be have another Andrew in August? Well, it wouldn't be Andrew as that's been retired.

I leave you with the 2024 Hurricane Season names. It'll be a while before we have any named storms, and let's hope 2024 is a peaceful, calm, healthy, happy year with only the weather you love the most!

Sweet Snowy Dreams in my case.

BobbiStorm

Lived in LA in the 80s.

Memorable movies :)

Freeze Warning in the Deep South - Snow Up in the Great Lakes (and Ohio? Philly? Twitter is Odd Today.... ) Cold Front Shows Hurricane Season to the Door.....

Funny thing happened today on the way to December.

...they dropped the low for tonight to 19 degrees.

Low tonight  11/28/23 is 19 degrees.

Sadldy no snow.

But it's a process.

By the Florida Georgia Line....

There's a FREEZE Warning.

Something not seen often in Winter.

On TWC I just heard him say...

"Polar Vortex"

Let's put it this way. The Polar Vortex is showing the Hurricane Season the door .... 

That's a cold front.

Draped across the South.

Even the water is cold.

That's it for me today. I'm going to do some errands, make some returns and buy some more stuff. Stuff is such a good word to cover anything that is not known at this point but you know you will buy when you see it! There are sales, there's things I need for the house and for presents. As kids get older it's easy to give Target Gift Cards (that's really all they want, they literally think going to Target is like a trip to the 
Toy Store) and yet some kids I know like gifts. Don't we all like gifts? I like gifts. I don't get as many as I used to :( but maybe that's the way life goes as time goes by. So a wise friend told me once "when you see something you really want on sale, buy it for yourself!" and so I may if I see something I really, really want. 

I want snow. You can't really buy snow. Well you can. Well maybe you can't I just looked at the 10 day forecast for Denver and there's no snow in the forecast. Hmnn. For now staying in the Carolinas, North Carolina to be specific unless I get lucky and end up in Myrtle Beach for the night.

Everyone take care, everyone be well, everyone be happy and safe and well. May everyone you know and love stay safe and well and happy.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps had really strange dreams early this morning. I think I fell asleep thinking about Colorado but I was there with some weather friends at some sort of conference obviously related to weather and there were these beautiful mountain scenes off in the distance. Was kind of disconcerting when I woke up in Carolina not Colorado. Maybe it's a sign of something ... smiling....

Tropics OFFICIALLY Quiet - Cool Air Filters Down - Great Lakes Snow & Thundersnow!

 

Nothing says official more than this image.

Officially quiet in ATL Tropical Basin.

November 30th last day of Hurricane Season.

Not to say other months get surprise Canes.

But generally it's over when it's over.

In the East the Great Lakes got Snow.

Kind of hogging the snow if you ask me.

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1729127851759194355

If you click on that link...

or as my brother would say

"That thar link"

(he writes quirky Southern Lit)

You'll see Cantore quality dream thundsnow.

Twitter has lots of incredible snow images.

In my neck of the woods we are dreaming on Snow.

But snow is just in dreams today.

Enjoy that video.

Otherwise in my world I'm shopping during Cyber Monday for presents for my kids, a few grandkis, some best friends.... if not now when?

Someone is getting Natasha Denona eye shadow.

I might even treat myself to one on sale.

I'm gonna decorate.

Bought huge blue snowflakes for my windows.

I'll just pretend.

Use my imagination :)

Be well, I'll update soon.

Slowly getting back into the routine of life.

After taking a few weeks off.

Sweet tropical dreams.............

..........on snowy blizzard dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

My gosh thank you YouTube

Thanksgiving ... Tropics Petering Out......Winter Weather in the Wings. Missing Home While Home in Raleigh Yet... Missing Miami... Crown Heights ..Where Do I Go Next??

 

That's the freeway in LA.

It's "free" but doesn't move fast.

I lived there a long time...

Moves slow Tuesday nite before Thanksgiving.

And during Oscar Day... schools out early.

A mass exodus to LAX

People flying out...

...people hitting the road.

So where are you this Thankgiving?

I'm in Raleigh 

Never an easy decision.

My Maple Tree looks like.......

...Charlie Brown's Christmas Tree.

In the world of the NHC

A lone orange area of interest.

Moving East... out at sea.

Europe can watch it.

Azores? Portugal?

Where will it go?

Do you care?

Notice the frontal boundary....

...has the same orientation as the traffic.

In the first image.

NHC ignoring Carib

A secret it seems as most don't talk on it.

El Nino pretty much shut down the Carib.

As for me ....for a multitude of reasons I did not go to Miami. I may go down in a week or so or not. Chanukah is coming and sometimes I have responsibilities here and other times I think "let's hit the road" and then I think "wait but........"  Miami has lots of programs and little grandchidlren that need gifts, family stuff and there's a program in Savannah I'd love to go to....... as well as a concert in Charlotte I'd like to be at and Raleigh has programs I'm supposed to be at.

Tropics are dead, pretty much other than some odd surprise storm that doesn't fit into any real category. Winter is on the move. It looks positively wintry outside today; gray, a bit misty, pines are green other trees losing their leaves. Silent, more silent than the song Silent Night, barely a leaf is moving in the absense of wind. It looks like a painting of someplace in a garden in Paris that is on the edge of Winter. 

If you are on the road, drive safe, enjoy the ride or the flight (good luck with that) and hope the trip was worth it and family or friends were all happy to be together. If you stayed home and are winging it with a frozen dinner or catered meal ........you should enjoy it as you picked it out! If you are cooking, baking, redecorating...you probably are not reading this blog.

As a child growing up in Miami .... Thanksgiving was the divider between Summer and the Winter Tourist Season. Decorations in Burdines (now Macy) and Jordan Marsh and Santa was everywhere happy, smiling and grateful to have a well paying gig! In Jordan Marsh Department Store Raggedy Ann and Andy life Size dolls swung on swings from the ceiling trying to convince us we were all Babes in Toyland. There was an Ice Skating Ring at the Deauville Hotel if you lived on or near Miami Beach. That's where the Beatles played actually ... in that room. Palm trees had tinsel and decorations. Big glittery blue dreidels hung from the ceilings in stores and we knew soon the year was over and the calendar would turn the page to the next year.  A lot of "Snow Birds" began showing up everywhere and not talking the ones with feathers but heavy winter coasts because "it might get cold in January" in Miami. 

Now I'm in Raleigh and there is something incredibly reassuring about the flow of the Seasons. No matter how beastly hot it is in August the heat has an expiration date. As glorious as Fall Color is we are forced, compelled to stop and enjoy every moment as it too has an expiration date. Winter comes and we all have Winter Dreams for snow or wintry weather that sometimes we get in abundance and sometimes means it means few flakes falling from the sky. Spring appears with Dogwood and Daylillies pushing through the cold ground and we are in bliss that Sping is here.  Once we had snowflakes on Purim holiday and by the evening it was 70 degrees!!! Seasons in Raleigh are a bit Bi-Polar! Then Summer begins, the beach calls and well you get the idea. But one thing that I realized really on was it was hard to believe that Fall Color would appear and the sky would begin to show again as leaves fell onto the ground allowing us to see the moon rise and the sunset again. And, yet it did. The Seasons are beautiful, they remind you that this too shall pass and while it's happening enjoy it as it's soon going to move on to the next season.

And, when I need green trees, blue water and hot temperatures I can go down to Miami as it's always hot, balmy and breezy in the Winter.

Crown Heights in Brooklyn is calling my name. I may go there first. A trip to Monsey to see my grandson named after my father and have breakfast with my daughter at Hava Java and oh my gosh a real Chanukah Donut with some sort of cream or frosting mix you can put in it...bourbon, cream brulee... oh my goodness. The picture doesn't do it justice!

Who knows.

Time will tell.

I'm taking life these days one day at a time and enjoying the beauty of it be it weather wise or other wise.

I listen live to I24 (if you know you know) and news channels are on but on mute with closed captions so I can turn the sound up if I want. And, certain songs are stuck in my mind playing over and over on a loop in my heaqd.

Happy Thankgiving.

Be grateful for anything you can find to be thankful for... be a part of the change you want to see, spread happiness around and if you can't do that try and share a smile ... it may make someone else thankful they ran into you at the market!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... know I know many of the people in this video and know these streets like the back of my hand. Even the Hill walking up Kingston from Montgomery to Crown Street! I miss it, as much as I miss Miami and Key West where my great grandparents lived... the old homestead ;) on Whitehead Street.

Can you really go home again?

What if home is many places.

Home is where you are?

What am I gonna do next???

Time will tell!

Yellow Tropical Flavored Jelly Bellys Being Watched By NHC BUT.........Both Moving AWAY from Us. Fall Falling Into Winter. Danger Zone in the South When Seasons Collide. Mud Season... Mud Surfing...

 

Definite Maybe.... 

SW Carib moving West......

Mid Atlantic curves East.

Mother Nature was on a flooding rampage the last few days without any named storms. In the Caribbean there was extreme flooding in places that were in the Cone for PTC22 but without the winds expected.  In the MidEast Winter Rains began and flooding causes a mess in the desert when that happens, especially those first rains. Rivers of water mix with sand and become mud. I know this as years after my son was back he explained Mud Surfing and why he was so beat up often. Maine gets Mud....they actually have "Mud Rooms" on homes there because there's an actual Mud Season. In parts of the South people kind of do mud surfing I've been told. It's an extreme sport.... 

Hurricane Season is coming to a close..... NHC doing their thing monitoring anything they feel might form, far from South Florida....

It was 34 degrees this morning in Raleigh, beyond chilly and the fake fireplace is going in the bedroom. The sun is shining bright on the Maple Tree behind my house, outside my bedroom window. The sun is also shining on bark newly exposed as the leaves are falling and Fall is losing the battle as we slip into Winter. 

But weather problems never end!

I put on the TWC this morning.

I wanted to see Jim's thoughts on the storms today.

There's a strong chance for severe weather.

Tornadoes ...

M-T-W weather problems!

Anyone wanting to travel early tomorrow...

... may have to deal with dangerous weather.

At least in the SE.

I95 will be a messy ride if you're driving.

I can't even imagine flying this weekend...

So that's it for today.

Stay safe.

Pay attn to the Weather.

Plan your holiday carefully.

And, enjoy it!

Sweet Turkey Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

PTC 22 Not Looking That Good. NHC Forecast Today Sticks With It Being a Tropical Storm. Maybe. Either Way it's Not Going to be a Player in the USA. Thanksgiving Day Weekend..

 

Not quite a TS yet.

Not as strong as what it SFL

(being honest)

But being tracked.

Forecast to be Vince.

NHC is back pedaling on it in discussion.

Lots of Ifs Ands and Buts...

See what they do by 11 PM...

You can see the bottom of this mess.

Darker colors...thats PTC 22

Top part has parts of the No Name Storm.

At some point a front pushes out to sea...

...and puts it out of it's misery!

(Actually the thing off FL looks better... )

Yes in a mood and a bit snarky.

This is really reaching if you ask me.

But .... if shear relaxes (it's strong)

I think it's wrong to hype something so badly.

And, yet... it will be a real weather maker.

Either way it's not gonna mess up anyone's Thanksgiving.

Well in the USA anyway. 

We are in that period between the end of Fall and the beginning of Winter, if you go by Meteorological Winter that begins on December 1st. Either way it cools off, warms up, cools off again and with each cold front the average low temperature drops a bit more and more. It's one of my favorite times of year usually.  Holiday decorations of all kinds are put up on display, people generally act a little kinder, more friendly and there's music playing in the Mall that people want to sing along to...  I put up tinsel around the windows in the bedroom and the light hits it pretty and makes me smile. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

My mother loved the artist this is copied from...

... how far did you roam?

Are you going home?

Or is home where you roamed?

????