Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, June 16, 2017

92 Invest in the Atlantic from African Wave...40% Orange & NW Carib Up to 60%

Talking the ATLANTIC not the NW Carib ..

Nice, compact, pulling together.
Twist, circular with nice form.
Way better looking than NW Carib.

Not to say there is not color in the NW Carib.
But first let's look at Invest 92L
Will that steal that name Bret?

92L was born this morning.
What will it be?
Where will it go?
Read on...

Westbound for now.
Westbound for a while.
Then it pulls more to the North..

Remember the rule:

For a storm to be viable it has to really become a Hurricane BEFORE the Eastern Caribbean as it then faces strong seasonal shear. As John Hope often reminded us the Eastern Caribbean is the Graveyard of Tropical Systems early in the season. IF they form before they tend to pull North towards a friendlier environment as well becoming problems down the tropical road. Once in a while a Tropical Storm wanders into the East Carib and hits a sweet spot or low shear but that's the exception to the rule. Note TS Ana in 1979 shown below in the blog died in the graveyard vs hitting her groove. So keep that rule in mind when watching 92L.

Why now in June?
Warm water, healthy waves.
92L stayed below the dry air.

Look how much orange and red there is...
...out in the Atlantic.
Bottom image shows you the anomaly.

You can see the spin starting below:

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Note Invest 92L will most likely follow the flow.
Unless it develops strong.
Early June storms in Atlantic usually are weak.
They hit shear or South America...
..or they linger, pull N and aim for the Islands.
Time will tell.
Just some early thoughts.

Again Ana in June 1979 below shown before.

Shear in the E Carib usually kills them.
Unless they lift more to the WNW and NW..

A song for Invest 92L

A floater for 92L :)

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

Now moving back to our side of the world

State of my life this morning.
Watching and waiting ...
Convergence begins in NW Carib.
Formation happens in GOM?
Then what?
Or does nothing really happen?

Always best to look at the WV Loop first!

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

A lesson in why I like this old school WV loop
See our Invest 92L bottom right enters our world?
See the area in the NW Carib ...converging, trying.

12 hours ago:

Current Image:

Definition Convergence:

It's a process. 

Going to discuss GOM as formation could affect the USA or Mexico.
Again formation may not happen, but models are insistent at 60%

The long water vapor loops show the process of convergence. You can break the loop above down into parts and sometimes when looping you get loopy, it all begins to blur together. But this loop in black and white often defines things often missed in beautiful colors colliding on other loops. There is so much going on in these loops. Watch the cold front marching East and eventually maybe dipping down or maybe dying out. High pressure currently strong in the GOM. Convergence of convection is going on currently a bit to the South and East of where we have been looking. That's because currently high pressure moving towards the Yucatan. Does a door open up for tropical moisture in the Eastern GOM or in a few days when this really gels will that high pressure connect with the high pressure to the East and put a halt to Northward movement of this tropical disturbance that could be TS Bret by then unless 92L steals the name first. It could also attain Tropical Depression status and linger around trapped by high pressure to the North being fed by warm, moist moisture to the South and finally become a weak TS or fall apart. If things change as some models do a hurricane could happen. This time of year anything is possible though usually a weak TS forms. Either way the amount of tropical rain across Florida will be huge and areas in the Caribbean and possibly Mexico will also get torrential rain. Again, small compact Cat 1 Hurricanes can be easier to deal with than large, lumbering messy and poorly formed Tropical Storms with multiple centers and misplaces pockets of heavy rain.

Another black and white loop:

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

With some shades of blue and teal..

What do you see?

This is the issue with the area in the NW Caribbean that is fighting many negative factors and yet it has hung in there for days. The models have continued to see formation of "something" in the NW Carib moving into the GOM arguing over it's final destination and strength.  I'll talk models later this afternoon so check back for an update later today. Suffice it to say the tropical game is on and multiple packages of possible track scenarios will soon fill up this blog. Does it go W into Mexico around Tampico or does it veer to the East and have problems forming and Tampa gets huge amounts of rain or does it make a run for the NW Florida coastline? Time will tell. Either way Florida is forecast to get a whole lot of rain over the next five days. And small area in Mexico is also highlighted yet this can change with the next few models runs.

Note the purple and dark blue colors above.
No matter what happens in GOM...
...heavy rain is on the way.

As for the Invest in the Atlantic......
It has running room.
It has a yellow X for the 2 day.
An African wave developing in June?
It's compelling.
It has a floater!

Something is going on in the NW Carib and it's possible (breathe) the EURO could be wrong in it's final resolution and it could form further South and East than previously expected and if it does the models that pull further to the right...will be right. If not it does the hook left. And like several messy invests years back that were followed on TWC as "post Invest".... it may never really form and come ashore as nothing more than huge amounts of flooding rain. That my friends is one of the purposes of tropical systems in the Caribbean is that they provide beneficial rain for areas often drought stricken in June and overly soggy by August. Tropical systems balance out the weather patterns and move air from the equator towards the poles and without that rain our farms in the heartland would not have moisture and Florida would burn from forest fires. It's a healthy process that sometimes gets out of hand when a tropical storm becomes a Category 3 headed towards Miami or Tampa or Nola or Houston. Usually they just rain themselves out as tropical disturbances or huge lumbering tropical storms in June.

But....................when you got a huge, twisting, stubborn tropical wave in the Atlantic headed Westbound towards the Islands you have the possibility of something much more than a messy, baroclinic system merging with a dying front pumping up tons of moisture and flooding Bayshore Blvd. in Tampa. The wave in the Atlantic is now an Invest, it's holding strong cards there for now in it's greedy hands but what will happen down the road. Can the NW Carib mess pull a few aces to play and surprise us?

So stay tuned. I started off this blog with the following song stuck in my head before the upgrade to Invest happened. That was my feeling this morning when I woke up and saw a golden, copper sunrise from my bed as I opened up my eyes. I had a feeling.

Is Bret in the Atlantic?
Or is Cindy in the Atlantic?
Is Bret and Cindy in the Atlantic?

Is the Euro wrong (breathe)
Was the CMC right (BREATHE)
Was the upgrade to the GFS good (breathe, breathe)

Stay tuned for As the Tropical World Turns.

Oh.......and there's a strong wave behind 92L

Spoiler Alert 92L has friends......

rb-l.jpg (720×480)

Anything goes it seems in 2017

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter...
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.
I'l update later today on Invest 92L and NW Carib.
More model discussion and thoughts later 

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


Post a Comment

<< Home