Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 15, 2017

50% ORANGE Circle in Carib .. Invest Coming? Need a Floater. African Wave Train Takes Me Back to 1979 an Analog Year for this Year! Model Discussion and Videos.

Our area of interest in the NW Caribbean has gone orange with a 50% chance of formation. The Low Latitude Cape Verde Wave remains at 20% Yellow. You aren't supposed to add them together but from a gambling point of view our odds of something forming overall is now up to 70% so we are definitely, officially in the Hurricane Season. As I'm not a gambler, I'll keep watching the satellite loops for how things evolve and then how the models continue to evolve. The main key here is the models continue to show an evolution of "something" in the GOM and BOC down the road. In a few days we should see this coming together better in real time on the satellite imagery unless the models have had too much espresso in that case they will need to go decaf for a few days. If nothing forms out of this the models will be watched with a few more grains of salt over the next few weeks. Just saying.

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For now the area above is being watched while we wait . . .

I liked a line in a discussion recently:

"A complex area of low pressure is expected to form"
It's as if they are already being defensive on what exactly will form from this complicated mess. Moisture left over from Calvin is still on the wrong side of Central America, weak tropical waves meandering through the Caribbean barely recognizable to the naked eye may provide the spark to light this complicated mess into a tropical entity with some sort of named status. Good word Forecaster Cangialosi, good word usage. is the link to the discussion from the NHC.

Now moving on to the Atlantic where we have a low latitude wave with yellow designation and 20% chances of forming. Why do I keep saying "low latitude wave" you wonder? Because it exists because it exited at a low latitude with a nice spin staying away from dry air to it's north allowing it a better chance of getting further West into the Atlantic. Usually they look great, we get excited, the NHC ignores it and it fizzles fast. And models have been friendly to the warmer than normal waters far out in the Atlantic this year so we are here talking about it even though it is June. As long as the waves stay below the 10 North line they have a better than usual chance to stay alive longer. And each new wave gets a better chance as the one that went before it juiced up the atmosphere and there seems to be an endless supply of early African tropical waves this year. The yellow area there is for the area in general though it was put up when the beautiful wave rolled off the other day, replaced by another beautiful wave today. Keep watching.

Since the area near the Yucatan has not been given an Invest I'll post this image from the NRL site as it seems I'll have to go to the Invest site myself and pretend we have one up in the Atlantic. If the models are that hot to trot on this spot then an Invest will follow.

You can see both areas above in the global view.
Well N Hemisphere view anyway.

The NRL still has the Calvin Invest up.
They are tracking it over land... 

I thought that was worth pointing out.

Pointing out something else.
There are better odds of formation in the Epac..
...yet they are expecting formation on the Atlantic side.

We do have a purple splotch in the NW Carib now.
Yet there is no yellow splotch in the Epac.
So we seem to be erring on the side of the models.
Candy striped red for this week in the Carib.

With so much moisture on the South Side...'s telling they are going with the North Side.

And I will show you why below:

Note the sense of curvature in the Carib.
It's splotchy in the Epac.
Showing signs of life in the Carib.

I'm keeping it simple today. No long discussion of models or mathematics. I'm giving you my thoughts while waiting to see a real investment by the NHC in this suddenly favored orange area in the Carib. The Atlantic is there and will pop soon enough. It's not about this wave becoming a named storm it's about the fact that we even have a yellow circle off of Africa in June that is the big story. I was trained years back as a journalist and you have to find the story, it doesn't always come to you. It's not always evident and you have pieces of a puzzle that you have to put together and the story in the tropics today is not the possible formation of a probable weak Tropical Storm Bret pulling together just before landfall. The big story is that we have a yellow area with 20% off the coast of Africa in June.

June storms do happen and get names. Sometimes June storms are not just over the Yucatan or off the coast of Florida. In 1979 Ana formed in the distant Atlantic and that track is shown above. What is worth noting here is that 1979 was a busy year and also an analog year for 2017. 

Busy years up the odds of landfall.
1979 was named in the CSU forecast.
Something to think on...

I don't really want to go long on models right now. It's worth noting the never popular GFS now takes a closed, complicated system North towards the GOM beaches. Well it dances around back and forth doing a tango over the Yucatan and then pulls together and then pulls apart. Lots of shear in the GOM so that's believable at least.

The always popular Euro shown below does form something in the same general spot the GFS does (agreement) and does head North a bit and then hooks left into the Tex Mex border regions. Check back for the next episode of how the Tropical World Turns featuring the always misdirected but beloved GFS and the star of the show even when he's a bad boy the EURO. And remember this is an ensemble cast and there are other players with different thoughts, but hey when you think of General Hospital in the 1980s you think of Luke and Laura. Name a quarterback from long ago and you think Namath or Unitas or Favre or Marino and yet there were many other winning quarterbacks back when... 

My thoughts on the 20% Yellow Circle by Africa are below.
If it stays South of SAL it may have legs down the road.
It would need to stay together and find warmer water.
A seasonal style that won't last long but still you like it.

As for me I don't want to wax poetic on models, I want an Invest and a floater and lots of model tracks showing up on my feed in Twitter. I'd like that wave to keep it's yellow circle out by Africa but not sure that's gonna happen right now but there's another wave behind it just like the catwalk at a fashion show. Rather than worry on each model run think of it like a fashion show of tropical waves each dressed a little differently, often losing their clothes and then finding them again over warmer water. Think on that and have a wonderful day!

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @Bobbistorm

That dress is soooo me. I want it. I have better chances of getting an Invest and a floater though.

1979 Top Hit.. 

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